All posts by Matt Winkelman

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

Phillies and Cardinals Drafting over the Years

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Every year around the start of the draft the articles start coming out about how the Phillies are failing in every part of their draft. This year the rallying cry has been the lack of pitchers developed by the Phillies and why they should take a college pitcher early to help the big league club. In general the fanbases clamor for college players because they have a quicker impact on the major league club.

Today David Murphy wrote an article about the Cardinals and how they have had college heavy drafts, and hinted that maybe the Phillies should follow that model. My first instinct was that this is a flawed argument and that the differences between the Cardinals and Phillies doesn’t have to do with whether it is HS or college players drafted, but more what are all of the factors that go into it. So lets look at some Cardinals and Phillies drafts head to head.

2006:
Top Picks: Adam Ottavino (Cardinals-30), Kyle Drabek (Phillies-18)
Combined WAR: .1 (Phillies) 28.1 (Cardinals)
Notable Phillies Picks: Drew Carpenter, Jason Donald, Quintin Berry, Domonic Brown
Notable Cardinals Picks: Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Luke Gregerson, Chris Perez, David Carpenter Continue reading Phillies and Cardinals Drafting over the Years →

Top 30 Stock Watch (1-20)

2014 Reader Top 30

After exploring the back of the Top 30, it is time to look at how the stock is trending for the Top 20 prospects in the system.  This is not a reranking, and it does take into account any injuries that we present at the time of the original ranking.  The Top 30 list can be found here.

20. Adam Morgan (LHP) – Morgan has not yet started his rehab, and shouldn’t be throwing for a bit longer. Stock: Static

19. Severino Gonzalez (RHP) – Severino has not been good this year, but he has not been as bad as his ERA looks.  Overall, Severino is not missing bats this year and the fastball is about where it was last year.   Overall Severino is still on pace to be a back of the rotation starter or middle reliever.  Stock: Slightly down Continue reading Top 30 Stock Watch (1-20) →

Top 30 Stock Watch (21-30 and Off the List)

Prospect Rankings

We are now nearly two months into the minor league season so it is time to do a quick look through the ranks and see how players are getting on.  It is way too early for a reranking of the list, but I am going to see whose stock is trending up or down, or staying constant.  For the first part I pulled 10 names off of my thoughts on those that missed the Top 30, as well as numbers 21-30 on the actual Top 30.

Jake Sweaney (C/OF) – Sweaney’s move to the outfield is a bit shocking this early, but catching was never a guarantee.  Still a lot to see about the bat and whether it will play in a corner.  He is certainly athletic enough to make it work.  Stock: Reset

Jiandido Tromp (CF) – Tromp started the year as the odd man out in Lakewood, but got his chance when Larry Greene was injured early in the year.  Tromp isn’t lighting the HSAL up, but he has flashed some power and speed, and some raw tools to make him interesting.  He should continue to get sporadic. Stock: Trending Up Continue reading Top 30 Stock Watch (21-30 and Off the List) →

It Isn’t Time for Maikel Franco, Yet

Franco, Maikel

This weekend the Phillies put Cody Asche on the disabled list retroactive to Friday with a hamstring injury, publicly the Phillies have said the move is precautionary and Asche should be back in the minimum amount of time.  This has led to a ton of speculation surrounding the Phillies pre-season #1 prospect, Maikel Franco.

It is easy to see why the push for Franco in the big leagues.  He is exciting and new, the team is old and not very good.  Franco offers the sexiest of offensive potential with towering HRs from a right handed batter.  The fanbase wants someone like Franco to come up and save this season, or at least provide hope leading into next year.  It is entirely understandable, but now is not the time. Continue reading It Isn’t Time for Maikel Franco, Yet →

The APhilliated Podcast

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This season Mark Perlman-Price (Broadcast Assistant for the IronPigs) and Michael Vetola (Radio Broadcaster for the Fightin Phils) have teamed up for a Phillies minor league podcast.  They have interviewed players and coaches as well as had on various beat writers and  broadcasters associated with the major and minor league teams.  In their latest episode they brought me on to talk about Reading park factors, and how it appears from the statistical side, from observation, and how it affects players and managers.

You can download any episode here https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-aphilliated-podcast/id854317012?mt=2

And while we are talking podcasts, Jay Floyd of Phoulballz puts out the PhoulBallz podcast which you can find here https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/phoulballz-podcast-jay-tug/id534600778?mt=2

What to Expect from David Buchanan

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With Cliff Lee‘s injury, the Phillies will call up RHP David Buchanan.  Buchanan was first drafted by the Mets in the 6th round of the 2009 draft out of Junior College, Buchanan didn’t sign.  The Phillies draft Buchanan in the 7th Round of the 2010 draft and signed him for $125,000.

Minor League Career:

Coming into the draft Buchanan showed a fastball that sat 92-93 that could touch 95, and a slider with good movement.  Buchanan struggled with his control in college and he lacked a changeup to give him a third pitch.

Buchanan moved through A-ball in his first season, spent all of 2012 in Reading (missing half the season with a finger injury), and split 2013 between Reading and Lehigh Valley.  Overall across 5 minor league seasons Buchanan has pitched 502 innings with a 3.98 ERA 2.85 BB/9 and 5.72 K/9. Continue reading What to Expect from David Buchanan →

Draft Board 1.0 (1-20)

2014 Draft

With just under 2 weeks until the draft, I am going to take a stab at a big board for the draft. This is not a mock draft, it does not take team needs into account and it does not factor in any signing bonus considerations. This first board is only going through the first 20 players. The next time it will go through pick 50 to encompass the Phillies 2nd round pick.

1. Brady Aiken
2. Carlos Rodon
The top two players on my board form their own tier. They may not go 1-2, but neither is falling out of the top 3. Continue reading Draft Board 1.0 (1-20) →

Trying to Find Patterns in Phillies Pitching Injuries

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There has been a rash of pitching injuries across baseball from every level from the majors through the minors and amatuer ranks.  For the most part the focus has been on Tommy John injuries, but the Phillies have had larger problems with injuries to all parts of pitchers bodies.  For the most part I am going to focus on the past year and a half, but I will also pull in pitchers who have affected the last few years who were injured in previous seasons.

Cliff Lee – LHP – Age: 35
Pitches: Fastball, Curveball, Changeup, Cutter
Injury: Left Elbow Strain
Background: Lee pitched with elbow soreness for over a month.  The Phillies have opted for rest, fastball velocity down to start the year.

Jonathan Pettibone – RHP – Age: 22
Pitches: Fastball, Changeup, Slider
Injury: Torn Labrum
Background:  Pettibone was injured late in 2013 and has opted for rest over surgery. Continue reading Trying to Find Patterns in Phillies Pitching Injuries →

What Good Prospects Look Like

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I had a whole long post in my mind about what good prospects look like statistically in the minor leagues.  Unfortunately the day didn’t break right and that article will never be written.  Instead here is something quick to remember when you are looking at guys in the minor leagues and saying they are so much better than a random major leaguer.  Here is what the Phillies Starting Lineup looked like during their best minor league seasons.

Position Player Age Year PA 2B 3B HR SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
C Carlos Ruiz 27 2006 (AAA) 423 25 0 16 4 42 56 0.307 0.389 0.505
1B Ryan Howard 24 2004 (AA-AAA) 560 28 1 46 1 60 166 0.291 0.380 0.637
2B Chase Utley 24 2003 (AAA) 490 26 2 18 10 41 75 0.323 0.390 0.512
SS Jimmy Rollins 21 2000 (AAA) 533 28 11 12 24 49 55 0.274 0.341 0.457
3B Cody Asche 22 2012 (A+ – AA) 559 33 6 12 11 34 93 0.324 0.369 0.481
LF Domonic Brown 22 2010 (AA-AAA) 389 22 4 20 17 37 74 0.327 0.391 0.589
CF Ben Revere 20 2008(A-) 517 17 10 1 44 27 31 0.379 0.433 0.497
RF Marlon Byrd 23 2001 (AA) 582 22 8 28 32 52 93 0.316 0.386 0.555
Average 23 507 25 5 19 18 43 80 0.318 0.385 0.529

Continue reading What Good Prospects Look Like →

Roman Quinn is Back!!!!!

Quinn, Roman, Transactions

Not sure if anything else is needed.  Crawford is ailing in Lakewood, but expected back tonight, when he is ready for Clearwater the Phillies will figure something out.