All posts by Matt Winkelman

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

Reader Top 30 Primer

2014 Reader Top 30

One of the unique things about this blog has been the reader Top 30 where each of you gets to take part in the ranking process.  In the past we have had problems with voting integrity and we are working on fixing those holes.

The rankings themselves will start on Monday January 6 with the #1 prospect in the system.  Until then, here are two polls to test out the new voting system (it may appear to let you vote multiple times but it should only count your vote once)

Should We Rank MAG

Continue reading Reader Top 30 Primer →

Eric Longenhagen Scouting Reports

Other Stuff

I was going to consolidate all of Eric Longenhagen’s scouting reports that have appeared on Crashburn Alley, but Bill Baer has already done it, so go read them. Now.

Link

Behind the Scenes of the Top 30

Other Stuff

Soon after the new year we will be starting the Reader Top 30.  So to get the discussion started here is a quick look behind the scenes at a Twitter conversation between Brad and I about the ranking process and how difficult it is to rank this farm system.  We agree on some players and are way different on others (and no we did not debate Cameron Rupp who Brad has #1 and I didn’t rank).

We both reserve the right to radically change our rankings from now until we release them in 2 months.

Have a Happy and Safe Holidays Everyone

Matt Winkelman‏@Matt_Winkelman

It might be the time to work on various rankings

  1. @Matt_Winkelman I started Phillies prospects 1-75 today. It’s really messy from like 6-15 and again between 16-25. Big groups. Continue reading Behind the Scenes of the Top 30 →

Phillies Designate Sebastian Valle for Assignment and Clears Waivers (Updated)

Transactions

To make room on the 40 man roster for Roberto Hernandez the Phillies have designated Sebastian Valle for assignment.  Valle was once a top prospect in the Phillies system and was ranked #3 on a very weak Top 30 after the 2011 season.

Valle is a good defender but he hasn’t had a walk rate above 5.6% and strikeout rate below 20.8% over the past 4 seasons.  Valle is still young at age 23, but he has been passed on the depth chart by Rupp and Joseph.  Valle has one minor league option remaining so another team may take a flyer on him to see if they can find value.  For the Phillies he has little value or playing time and they likely tried trading him before this move.

Update (12/20):

The Phillies have announced that Sebastian Valle has cleared waivers and outrighted to AAA (this in no way reflects his final placement because of weird roster stuff).  Valle will remain in the organization for 2014 and will be a minor league free agent due to service time.  Valle will likely go to AA with Tommy Joseph in 2014, and given his good stats in the Mexican Winter League, he may still be a backup yet.

Shane Watson to have Shoulder Surgery

Other Stuff

As many of you know Shane Watson has been battling shoulder soreness all year.  PhoulBallz Jay Floyd is now reporting that Watson’s latest setback and lack of progress will force him to have shoulder surgery (http://www.phoulballz.com/2013/12/watson-to-undergo-shoulder-surgery.html).  Watson recently had a set back, he had previously pitched in the Fall Instructional Leagues.

The surgery will be performed in January to correct inflammation in an enlarged capsule.  The recovery time expects to be about 3 months.  This means that he will get a late start to spring training, and it should set back his debut, but this should not set his season back too much.  This is not good news, but at very least it is not a torn capsule, a procedure which has a tendency to immediately end careers.

December Q&A Session

Other Stuff

I don’t have time to write up a full mailbag so I thought I would do something in between, opening it up for people to ask questions and get some answers or insight.

Quick Guidelines:

  • For each new Question start your own comment tree, do not reply to another question
  • Feel free to chip in on other questions, be respectful to the person asking the question
  • When replying make sure to reply to that comment and not start a new one
  • Keep on topic to question or comment posed

I will be moderating this thread heavily to keep it clean and easy to follow, so anything off topic should go in the General Discussion thread or another appropriate thread.

Draft Revisited: 2008

2008 Draft

After a break, here is the 2008 draft class.  There have been a huge number of players from this class to make the major leagues, despite the first two names on the list being considered to be huge busts.  More of the class has been used in most major trades that the Phillies were involved in during their NL East dominating years.  Many of the names involved will be very familiar to both casual and hard core fans.

Round 1 Pick 24 – Anthony Hewitt
Going into the draft Hewitt was viewed as having boom-bust potential. Hewitt’s HS competition was poor and so is approach was incredibly raw, additionally is poor defense was going to force him off SS into the OF. From his first season to now it has been a long journey for Hewitt. He displays huge raw power, plus speed, and plus arm strength, however he has been unable to develop an approach. In 2013 Hewitt set a career high in walk rate but he still struggles against same handed pitching and breaking balls.  2014  Outlook: Lehigh Valley Continue reading Draft Revisited: 2008 →

Phillies Select Kevin Munson in the Rule 5 draft, Lose Seth Rosin to the Mets

Transactions

The Phillies selected Kevin Munson out of the Diamondbacks system in the Rule 5 draft.  Munson has been a reliever since he was drafted in 2010, he shows a fastball in the low 90’s that can touch higher, and he pairs that with a hard slider.  He has had some control problems over his career with a 4.26 BB/9 in AA this year, but he finished the year with a 2.74 BB/9 in AAA.  Across the two levels Munson struck out 10.9/9.  He has good ground ball tendencies as well and has a good chance to stick in the Phillies bullpen all year.

The Mets selected AA RHP Seth Rosin from the Phillies.  Rosin is a big strong pitcher with a 3 pitch mix that is more average than overpowering.  However, he has a good feel in the zone and generates a ton of ground balls.  The Mets will likely switch Rosin back to the bullpen where the fastball could play more plus and the pitch mix will allow him to keep hitters off balance.  He profiles more as a middle reliever but it could play up a lot more.  The groundball tendencies and big frame are reminiscent of former Phillies Rule 5 pick David Herndon.  There is a good chance Rosin sticks all year with the Mets.

The Red Sox selected Jonathan Roof in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.  Roof is now permanent property of Red Sox (for the cost of $12,500).   Roof played across two levels for the Phillies in 2013 and is more an org filler at this point in his career.

Rule 5 Draft Preview

Rule 5 Draft

No event in baseball attracts more attention for little flash than the Rule 5 draft.  Fans are constantly looking for the next Shane Victorino, when in reality you should be looking for the next David Herndon.  The draft represents a unique opportunity to add talent for “free” in a market where a middle reliever can get $1+ million in free agency.  I could list a ton of names here that the Phillies could pick but I give it a 5% chance that the Phillies actually pick any of them.  The Phillies do have two high picks in the draft they could use for upside flyers, or they could trade them for other minor leaguers who don’t need protection.

Notable Phillies Prospects: Brody Colvin, Seth Rosin, Anthony Hewitt, Perci Garner

Names Available: Junior Arias, Zach Thornton, Carlos Perez, Brian Moran, Ryan Tepera, Danny Burawa, Darrell Ceciliani, Brian Fletcher, Mike Freeman, Jae-Hoon Ha, Marcus Hatley, Marco Hernandez, Tommy Kahnle, Stephen Kohlscheen, Freddy Lewis, Matt Lollis, Matt Loosen, Kevin Munson, Hector Nelo, Angel Nesbitt, Boone Whiting, Omar Luis, Ronan Pacheco, Jarrett Parker, Tyler Kelly, Mike Freeman, Marcos Mateo, Alex Sogard, Brian Fletcher, Tyler Ybarra, Hector Nelo, Brett Eibner

Links/Previews:

I will add more links and names today as they come up

Maikel Franco’s Contact

Franco, Maikel

There has been a lot written and said about Maikel Franco‘s swing over the course of the season.  There have been talks about the shape and length as well as how much power it is going to generate.  Overall scouts have questioned how the swing as a whole will translate to the next level.  Franco has big time raw power and he has elite bat speed and hand eye coordination.  He has demonstrated the ability to make contact, but the quality of that contact has begun to come into question lately.  The goal is to explore if that is true and what that deterioration in contact might look like.

Contact Type:

So the first question is what kind of contact is Franco making.  Here is a break down of his percentages across each level Franco played at this year (sample size of 228, 249, and 88  balls in play respectively).

Contact Type

The first thing that jumps out is the spike in ground balls in AA that coincided with a drop in fly balls.  The next thing is that outside of a spike in winter ball, his line drive rate is very low (for example the lowest LD% among qualified 3B in 2013 was Todd Frazier at 18.1%), given that line drives have the highest probability of being hits, that is troubling.  The decline in flyball rate is troubling as well because that is where the HR power is coming from.  Overall it is an indication that Franco is not making the best contact possible, but given that minor league ball in play classifications can be off lets look at some spray charts. Continue reading Maikel Franco’s Contact →