All posts by giventofly41

Jason Grey at ESPN on De Fratus/Rosenberg

De Fratus, Justin

In yesterday’s column

Justin De Fratus, Philadelphia Phillies: De Fratus absolutely looks like a big league bullpen arm, with a 92-95 mph fastball that touched 96 mph once when I saw him, and good tilt on an 83-85 mph slider that can get strikeouts. A strong pitcher with a good frame who uses his lower half well, De Fratus does a good job finishing his pitches. De Fratus isn’t far from a call-up and looks like he could fill a seventh- or eighth-inning role at the big league level, and from there anything can happen. Then again, he’s also in an organization that left Scott Mathieson behind to dominate Triple-A hitters all year.

B.J. Rosenberg, Phillies: Rosenberg appeared in only 20 games this season due to a lat strain, so we can give him a bit of a pass if he’s still getting up to speed. In one of his outings I saw, he gave up three homers in four batters, all on poorly located fastballs. He has been working in the 91-92 mph range and occasionally touching 93 mph, but with not a lot of movement on it. His low-80s slider projects to “solid average,” and his 80-81 mph changeup has been below average. I’m just not seeing good stuff or command right now.

I love that De Fratus is getting his deserved props now. He’s done what every prospect needs to do, continue to prove himself while he climbs the ladder. 2011 could be a big year for him. Rosenberg, well, not as optimistic.

Mailbag Responses

Mailbag

Thanks to everyone for submitting questions. Some of you submitted like 10 questions each. I’m gonna have to pick and choose. First question

Dan asks

Thank you for taking my question. I am wonder what the prospects are for Jeremy Barnes, both next year and beyond? He seems to be a forgotten man among fans on your website. When healthy last year he hit extremely well and played all over the infield.

At 23, turning 24 in April, Barnes needs to move real fast, and has to really hit if hes going to make the majors. His .292/.383/.441 line at Lakewood is decent, but not for a 23 year old. He split time between 2B and 3B, and his future lies as a utility infielder if he can hit enough to get there. He didn’t show much home run power, but did end up with 38 doubles in 461 PA. He needs to finish at Reading this year and prove he can hit quality pitching if he’s going to end up making it to the bigs.

Check below for the rest.

Continue reading Mailbag Responses →

Mailbag questions

Mailbag

Hey everyone. I’ve been meaning to write some stuff for the site recently, but every time I sit down and make time to do it, I forget what I wanted to write about. So I think this would be a good spot for a mailbag, maybe some of your questions would spur me on and give me ideas for longer posts. One thing I am going to do this winter, with my top 30 prospects, is release a Top 30 that also includes every prospect traded in the last few years who is still prospect eligible, ie, Drabek, Taylor, Cardenas, etc etc, which I think should be interesting. But anyway, if you have a question you want me to answer, follow these simple steps. Send an email to phuturephillies at gmail dot com. In the title, put “mailbag”. DO NOT POST YOUR QUESTION HERE, I WONT ANSWER IT!

Simple enough. I’ll try and post my answers either Friday or Saturday, depending on the response!

Open discussion, but first, a thank you

Daily Discussion

Time for a new post with a fresh discussion topic. But first, a thank you is in order. I try to say it every once in a while in post form, but I really appreciate all of the support this site has received in the last 3+ years. By the time you’re reading this, the site odometer will have probably ticked to 5 million. 5 million hits. It kind of blows my mind, considering how the site started. So I wanted to thank a bunch of people, starting with gregg. You’ve been the glue that has held this place together over the last few years. As I’ve changed jobs and moved into a position that doesn’t allow me access during the day, and doesn’t afford me the same free time I had to maintain the site and regularly write, you’ve more than picked up the slack. Big thanks also to Todd, Dave, Cody, Andy, Zac, Chuck, and everyone else who has contributed content here. Another round of applause for all of the regular readers and commenters as well. Different view points are certainly a key to any discussion, and I appreciate that the people who do spend a lot of time here help to self-moderate the discussion and keep people in line, as I really don’t have the time to play nanny at this point. I appreciate each and every one of you who continue to come back, who share the site with your friends, family and enemies. Thank you to everyone who has kindly donated, those who have suggested new features for the site, Rob for designing the banner for the site, and anyone else who has helped me improve the look and features of the site. Really, the success of the site, the way its grown, amazes me, and I’m really happy to have created something that a lot of people get enjoyment out of. So, everyone, give yourself a round of applause.

Now, here is your open post to discuss the prospect things you find interesting. I’ll throw a topic out there. What role do you think Phillippe Aumont will play next year, and at what level do you think he will begin the season?

Friday Discussion: Sleeper prospects for 2011

Daily Discussion

I wanted to create another open discussion post. In this edition, I’ll give you the chance to talk about your favorite sleeper prospects heading into 2011. Note, Brody Colvin, Jon Singleton and the like are not sleepers. A sleeper prospect is a guy that people don’t talk about a lot, or do not consider in the upper tier of our prospects. Think more obscure, under the radar guys who you think might break out. Here’s your chance to hype up your guys ahead of the Reader Top 30 this winter. Go!

BA’s Top 20’s: FSL and Eastern League

Top Prospect Lists

Sorry, I’ve been kind of tied up with other things (and the Phillies), so I didn’t get a chance to update this in real time. BA posted its FSL Top 20 and EL Top 20’s this week. The Phillies on the list:

FSL

9. Trevor May, RHP

EL

1. Domonic Brown, OF

So far, to date

GCL (2): Biddle and Altherr
NYPL (3): Hernandez, Santana, Altherr
SAL (5): Singleton, Colvin, Cosart, May, Valle
FSL (1): May
EL (1): Brown

I expect Brown will make the International League Top 20 as well. That’s probably it. Not a bad run. Per usual, the bulk of the Phillies best guys are in the lower levels. Discuss.

Open discussion number 1

Daily Discussion

We’re gonna wait a bit to start the reader Top 30. The MLB playoffs start soon, so there will be discussion there. So I wanted to throw this out there. With Domonic Brown still a rookie, he is a lock to be the #1 prospect in the system. After him, the next 3 guys are probably Singleton, Colvin and Cosart in some order. Then maybe Trevor May.

So here is today’s discussion quest. Which guys do you see falling in the 6-10 range? 1-5 seems fairly easy, 6-10 doesn’t. You don’t need to rank guys now, but I’m curious to see who everyone thinks should be in the 6-10 range in some order. Lets hear it.

5 Phillies on the BA SAL Top 20

Top Prospect Lists

Quite a haul. Head over to Baseball America to read the scouting reports. Don’t paste them here, that’s illegal. If someone has access and wants to share a few tidbits (and I stress a few), then go for it, but don’t copy/paste. Thanks.

1. Jon Singleton, 1B
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
7. Jarred Cosart, RHP
8. Jonathan Villar, SS (yeah yeah, I know, just posting for reference)
11. Trevor May, RHP
19. Sebastian Valle, C

Discuss!

SONAR Review Volume 1: NL East

SONAR Scores

Hello, and welcome to the first part of my 2010 SONAR review. As you know, last winter (and really it was 2 years in the making) I unveiled a new metric I had created to try and evaluate minor league performance across all levels, taking into account a player’s age, his league he was playing in, his home park, and measure the performance based on his true performance, not just the standard 3 slash stats. I re-worked the stat a few times, trying to get the kinks out, and then rolled out my final scores for the 2010 season. All of the data is found here, as well as a primer on the basics of what the score measures and my rationale for creating the metric. Now that we have a full year of data, I want to re-visit my lists heading into 2010 and see how good SONAR was as a predictor, based on 2009 performances used to create each player’s SONAR score. I’m going to do 6 parts, one for each division, and keep them in separate posts. So check below and we’ll get started.

Continue reading SONAR Review Volume 1: NL East →