Phillies Discussion (8/27/2026)

Other Stuff

Here’s a new Phillies Discussion. 

This should post automatically at 10:PM EST on August 27th.  Comments on the previous discussion should automatically close at the same time.

Important Dates

  • December 1, 2026 (11:59 p.m. ET): MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.  (Note that there are many more dates to add from Spring Training through the end of the 2026 season and calendar year.  I will add when I have accurate dates for them.)

 

158 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion (8/27/2026)”

  1. Looking ahead 2027 and beyond: Signs of aging — Wheeler and Turner; Solid parts of the future: Stott, Crawford, Marsh, Sanchez, Luzardo, Arraez; 3-5 good years left – Harper, Schwarber J.T; Probable Future starters: Painter, Wood, Renteria, Rincon; Vexing Problem: Bohm; Hope for the best: Miller

    Possible line-up 2028

    1b – Harper, 2b – Arraez, ss – Rincon/Miller; 3b – Stott, LF – Marsh; CF – Crawford; RF – Renteria; C – JT (last year?) SP: Sanchez, Luzardo, Painter, Wood, Nola (hope). RF Doran and who knows.

    What to do: Turner’s contract, Bohm’s future, JT successor

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    1. I don’t get it. Bohm isn’t a “problem.” He’s going to be a free agent, so they just let him leave. Problem solved.

      Liked by 2 people

    2. That lineup is very, very optimistic. I’m keeping it real for 2028:

      1B: Harper, 2B: Stott(extension), SS: Turner, 3B: Rincon, LF: FA/Hill, CF: Nori, RF: Crawford, C: Realmuto, DH: Schwarber

      Sanchez, Luzardo, Painter, Nola, Wood/Wheeler (1-2 year deal)

      Ronald Acuna Jr was an elite prospect and even he debuted for the Braves at age 20. Ozzie Albies was also at age 20. Thinking Renteria will make his debut at age 19 is a monster ask, considering he’s not stateside yet.

      I’m leaving Miller out until he’s healthy. I think the Phillies will sign 1 of Arraez/Stott but not both. I don’t think the Phillies will sign Marsh to a second contract.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Renteria being the DSL MVP is not a small accomplishment. It is a really exciting recognition for a system that is not deep and hasn’t produced a position player star since Chase Utley.

    Renteria’s stats are video game-esq:

    .379/.470/.682/1.152 OPS
    11 HR
    24 SB
    9 2B
    9 3B
    36 K
    34 BB

    All at age 17. Something to dream on.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. I agree. You cannot overstate the potential impact of this prospect and perhaps a few of the other DSL stars.

      Overall, as the current Phillies team shows, the value of star players is extreme. If you have a fair share of stars, you can fill in around them, but they are nearly impossible to acquire on the open market (or if you do, the cost of such players is disproportionately huge, even if they are worth it, and they often are).

      Renteria is a potential star. Andrew Painter, is a potential star (yes, he’s in the big leagues, but he’s just in his first year). Spangler is a potential star. McFarlane is a potential star. Aidan Miller, if he can heal up, is a potential star. Rincon perhaps isn’t a potential star, but he’s not far off that if he reaches his ceiling. And, while I don’t view Wood as a potential star, he’s a very nice prospect. Even Bogenpohl has star upside (low-ish floor but pretty high ceiling). So I’m not really down on the system now, rankings notwithstanding. While they’ve got a lot more work to do, I like where they are going. They are trying to develop difference-makers and there are more of those types of players in the system (or recently graduated) than we’ve had in years (and we traded a few away, so this isn’t a one-off situation).

      Liked by 3 people

      1. The system graduated Painter and Crawford. The only prospect at AAA is Miller and no one knows when he will swing a bat again. The rest is at AA and lower and a lot can happen. If things break well, the system can make a big jump in the next 2-3 years but again, prospects fail all the time. I’m not happy with the low farm system ranking but I understand it.

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    2. MLB has Renteria’s ETA as 2031. I think the way he is progressing so far, and if he maintains this , later part of 2029 or 2030 is more realistic…cannot see the Phillies rushing him any faster up the ladder. As it stand now he could be in Philly as a 20-year old if continues on this pace.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. If all goes well the timing of when these kids hit will cooincide with the latter years of contracts that aren’t looking so hot LOL

    I’m probably in the minority in that I hope there is no salary cap. We may never spend the most but JM will always be willing to spend at or a bit over the LT when it matters.

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    1. hmm never thought of that, we are a good team because of money,of they even up the playing field we might return to mid

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    2. DMAR…….I am of the other persuasion…I want a hard cap, which also will bring with it I assume, a floor. Phillies could still spend up to the cap, while forcing 3 or 4 small market teams to take the brunt of it, and start spending.

      The same large market teams will still spend to the limit…should be no different then it is now. However they need to be spending more wisely.

      Liked by 1 person

    3. I doubt you’re in the minority. People are tired of Billionaires getting over on everybody. If there’s no cap and the cost of the games become too expensive, the fans will let you know when they can’t afford it. I used to do about 20 games a year. Now I’m married with 2 kids, and I do a couple of games. And we usually sit in the 300 section. And I watch how much we spend on food and souvenirs.

      But it’s funny…, just when I think I’m done doing games for the year, an email comes along with an offer for $11 tickets, or $22 tickets. So it kind of all evens out. John Middleton still makes his bank at the end of the year, and we still get to enjoy Schwarber, Harper, and the rest.

      Caps are no good. Let capitalism work.

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      1. “Caps are no good. Let capitalism work.”

        Caps are capitalism…every Fortune 500 company, every small business and their owners, every ma and pa business …they all have have their own set budgets….that is their cap

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        1. A budget is far different than a cap. Let’s not compare mom and pop shops and Fortune 500 companies. Many CEO’s take a $1 salary and $20M in stock options. They are not the same. This doesn’t apply to baseball.

          Capitalism is supply and demand. Schwarber supplies production and puts butts in the seat. His demand was obviously $150M. Again, if fans found it too excessive, they wouldn’t show up. But baseball continues to grow, so there’s still a demand.

          Limiting wages versus a budget are two very different things.

          The Pirates have a budget. Their owners prioritize profits over product. They don’t spend money on good players, so they don’t win many games, so the fans don’t show up as much. So their ticket prices are lower. But the owners get a nice profit every year. Maybe investing in your product would bring in more people and lead to more winning. Then just maybe, profits would grow. The valuation of your team certainly would, that’s for sure.

          I’ll never understand how common folks defend Billionaires. It makes no sense whatsoever.

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      2. MLB is not capitalism. If it was, small market teams would enter the LA and NY markets, bring in more competition and forcing down margins. MLB is centrally planned. Pretending that major markets don’t have a huge built in advantage is intellectually dishonest. Th e NBA model is the best imo. Great parity when a team like Oklahoma City or San Antonio can build a dynasty.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. NFL model is strong as well. Teams share TV revenue, salary floor and cap. Teams that draft – develop – and manage cap win.

          Small market success – Green Bay, Kansas City, Tampa Bay

          Large market success – New England, LA Rams, Philly

          Large market failure – NY (both)

          Liked by 2 people

          1. Agreed. I like the NFL model for the teams. I think the “non guaranteed” contracts in the NFL are a bit unfair for players. I like the NBA model that limits contract years too.

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  4. Here’s a blast from the past: Anthony Gose just threw a scoreless inning for the Royals last night.

    Yes, the outfielder we drafted in the second round in 2008 and then traded for Roy Oswalt 2010.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Braves lost Hurston Waldrep to TJ surgery and Spencer Schwellenbach will have surgery to repair the same elbow fracture he suffered last year. That’s on top of Strider being done. sheesh, that is bad injury luck for them.

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    1. Braves have had no luck with pitchers in their system that they have nurtured……Soroka, Wright, Touissant, Anderson and now the current group. They bring them up pretty fast and then they fizzle out with ailments and injuries.. Not sure what they are doing wrong, pther then rushing thru the system.

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  6. I want to see a few things become staples of the new agreement:

    1. A salary floor much higher than the lowest team payroll today,
    2. A salary cap much lower than the Dodgers payroll today.
    3. The range between floor and cap <$20M by 2028.
    4. Equal access to all international talent via a system that provides better talent to the worst performing teams.
    5. Deferred salary made illegal.
    6. In 2027, teams below the floor must get 50% of the way to the floor by opening day, and all the way there by opening day 2028.
    7. Same concept for teams over the cap – halfway there by ‘27, all the way there by ‘28.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. If MLB can guarantee that exactly 50% of the money coming in goes to the players, then maybe I’d be open a cap and floor system. But what about team valuations? I know the owners take on the “risk” but come on, really, when did a team lose value? Jeffrey Loria made a killing with the Marlins and they were awful at the time of the sale/sell-off.

      The thing that bothers me most, is how the owners are looking to cut costs with minor leaguers. If you make it harder to get to the MLB, a lot of talented kids will turn to other sports or give up on baseball entirely. The game has already made it almost impossible for inner-city kids (where there is a ton of kids) to make it in baseball. Funny when the color barrier broke how many African Americans were ROYs and MVPs in the first 15 years?

      The owners implementing a cap will continue to squeeze the talent pool. It will be the fortunate, college kids and lucky Latin Americans who end up making it to the top. The cuts out a ton of kids who could be deserving of a spot with a team somewhere.

      Billionaires only care about profits, and nothing else.

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      1. I don’t disagree that Billionaires care about the money, that’s how they got to be rich to be begin with. But some owners are richer than others and some of them have larger markets than others. If a large market team, like the Dodgers or Phillies, have a sweet TV revenue deal and they have a lot fans who are willing to spend money on tickets/jerseys/food, then the owner might be willing to pony up the money. Smaller market owners don’t have that luxury. So if they see that certain teams are spending all out, at a certain point, it’s the law of diminishing returns. If the Dodgers are spending $300M and the Pirates are spending $200M (which is a lot for the Pirates), the Pirates’ odds of being a good team increases, but is it worth it when the Dodgers are spending $300M? Sure, the Pirates could probably do that for 1 or even 2 years. How about for 5 years? The owners aren’t rich by throwing around money for nothing. If the owners can’t get a realistic shot at winning because of the large market teams, what’s the point of going all out when the odds of my team winning is still low. You might as well keep costs low and get as much profit as you can.

        Steven Cohen has money to burn and the Mets are consistently in the top 5 in payroll. Because of their payroll, their preseason odds are usually in the top half of the league. But even spending crazy money doesn’t guarantee a win, but Cohen is so rich, he can afford to do that. Cohen is worth $22B. The Pirates owner, Bob Nutting, is worth 1.1B. So clearly Cohen can afford to spend $350M since that amount is like 1.6% of his net worth. If the Pirates spent $200M, it would be 18% of Nutting’s net worth.

        If you’re a small market owner, would you rather spend a lot of money (which would likely cut into your profits) and probably still have a very slim shot at winning it all OR keeps costs low, reap as much profit as you can, but have almost no shot at winning it all? I think you know the answer to that.

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      2. Be thankful that the NFL has a cap. Jerry Jones is top 5 in wealthiest owners. You know that if there was no cap, he would be outspending the Eagles every single year.

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        1. They care a lot more about capital gains and if they tread water and the valuation of their franchise continues to climb and exceed what they paid for it then they are good with that also.

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    2. Got to get some agreement on TV / Streaming revenue sharing. as well.

      Would also look at developing a Competition Committee. Walter / Dodgers Owner will pay for his misuse / fraud, but baseball needs to have some model to review / discuss to avoid the Walters, Madoffs, etc.

      At least the NFL owners just need to manage brothels.

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  7. I was going to Reading and ended up not going …. good decision ….. in the 8th we have 2 hits so far. Wood’s line 5 inn. 6 Hs 5 Rs 5 ERs 1 BB 7 Ks 1 HR 1 E (pick off) 79 — 56.

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  8. Gage wood had one good start.people saying phillies thinking of using him that’s nuts. He has proved nothing.

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    2. By no means is Wood a finished product. He was only drafted last year and he skipped over high-A. The Phillies are testing him at Reading and he will need to adjust and work on his other offerings. He’s already at 86 innings which is more than double what he pitched last season.

      That said, I agree that all this talk about Wood going to the bigs from AA is way premature. I seriously doubt that’s happening so don’t worry about it. The emergence of Bowlan as a high leverage arm has helped the bullpen a lot.

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      1. Bowlan has been a stud much like Hoffmann was a few years ago. Let’s hope he can keep it going in the postseason, unlike Hoffmann.

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  9. Rocco – the stat line is very relevant but it’s not everything. A year ago you wondered why people were focused on McFarlane, with his then terrible era, and now you see why. The tools were excellent even if the stats were not. Wood is not a perfect prospect but he’s got some pretty good tools, even if it turns out that he becomes a reliever.

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    1. Catch did you ever see him? I watch game tape. Not scout, but he isn’t to me anything special. Just my option

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  10. From Longenhagen chat yesterday:

    “ja1145: Is Bryan Rincon an everyday level player?12:47

    Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re okay with “everyday player” meaning SS #25-30? Maybe. I think he’ll be more like SS 30-45, he can pick it, he’s gonna K a lot I think.”

    Hey, the 2026 Phillies already have a shortstop at that level, at least Rincon would be making major-league minimum!

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    1. That’s what I see too. I said Edmundo Sosa comp which upset a lot of people but he certainly is closer to Sosa than Lindor. Sosa’s career stats: .255/.306/.412/.717

      If you wouldn’t be happy with Rincon having a .717 career OPS then you have way too high expectations imo. Rincon is not a star player.

      As a comp, Stott’s career OPS is .709. I find it hard to see Rincon as a better hitting prospect than Stott. And yes, I have looked up the stats for both players.

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      1. Really like to see Rincon’s K rate fall to where it is at his BB rate…..that will be at LHV I assume next season. That will be a difficult undertaking but if he can do it the results, could be great, especially at the AAA level.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. Agreed. I guess I have a different pov on Edmundo than others. I think that he is a very good MLB role player. Extremely valuable especially if you can get that level of productivity cheap for 5-6 years.

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  11. Very happy to see the career start that Macon Winslow is having. I have followed him for a while as a prep player. He is an exceptional athlete. Explosive. Kinda raw behind the plate but the tools are there. Great arm strength.

    Combined with the breakout season from Ferrebus we might finally have some catching depth in the minors. Still very early for both prospects but good seasons.

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    1. Hope Winslow follows the career path of Will Smith once he left Louisville…took him three years before making his Dodger debut. Winslow has a good solid size for a catcher and decent pop while at both Durham and Chape Hill. Probably like most young catchers needs to work on the finer points of the position.

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    2. McFarlane is the new version of “the Vulture,” the famous relief pitcher for the Dodgers in the 70’s, Phil Regan. McFarlane has pitched 8 innings and recorded 4 wins !!! Regan was called Vulture because he always managed to come into a game right before his team went ahead and he ended up with the win. McFarlane seems to have the same great timing !

      Liked by 2 people

    1. My first thought ‘park factor’ is in play, then saw where he has 12 at home and 10 on the road…..so it may not be as profound. And further, OPS….944 at home and .888 on the road.

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  15. Just incredible the “stupid” @#$% stuff we do! Doubt Mattingly was responsible for that. One guy gets caught with his pants down and the other guy just has to be “the man” and stretch the envelope. Sanchez puts out a heck of performance, just a shame.

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    1. In Trea’s defense, he was at least safe and just got railroaded by, “no definitive angle” despite one being shown on broadcast.

      Harper is just like that, though.

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      1. Graves’ numbers as a starter are not great and the Phillies don’t usually flip flop from starter to reliever and back again. Looks like his best path to the bigs is as a reliever, I would be very surprised if he’s back as a starter.

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  18. Harper…..ABS challenge on first AB with 0-0 count…..exactly where is his head! And he has one of the worst ABS challenge rates.Can someone pls tell him….or even ask him, why do you challenge in the very first inning in your first AB with zero positives that come from it.

    Liked by 2 people

    2. Romus …… by now you know Harper does what he feels like doing …… that is stealing home, taking the extra base that isn’t there to take, being insolent, arrogant and throwing the “Commish” out of the locker room. Don’t think you’ll find someone with the gonads equal for the test. Not even the manager. No, ……… Harper is “the man”, he does just about anything he feels like doing.

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      1. It appears that the superego developing around age 5 is underdeveloped. For there appears no outer expressions of guilt when ethical rules or norms are broken.😉

        Liked by 1 person

  19. Bill Miller veteran umpire was 0 – 8 on ABS challenges set the bar really low for future wearers of the “blue”! Equivalent to the golden Sombrero with 4 oakleaf clusters!

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  20. All 4 farm teams lost yesterday, with LHV suffering a no-hitter. Not a lot of bright spots right now, other than Rincon, but DeMartini seems to be finishing up his season strongly.

    Athletic had a piece on the admin restructuring wherein DD claims Murton was given a more restricted title because he had too much on the plate. Some interesting comments by Gelb and Varness on the clubby insularity of the front office.

    On Friday, the guys on the Phillies Show all seemed to have the sense that Hurton had been essentially demoted.

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  21. Watching game yesterday, I didn’t understand how Angels could ask for a “crew chief” review of out at first, when they were out of challenges.

    Since when is this allowed, and how is it different from a challenge?

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    1. tony…..ABS challenges are different than managerial requests for umpire review. ABS challenges can only be triggered on the field by the batter, catcher, or pitcher using a quick cap or helmet tap. Traditional umpire replay reviews are requested by team managers or initiated automatically by the Replay Operations center in New York. MLB game with two ABS challenges and retains them if successful. Traditional replay reviews operate under a separate allowance where managers are given a specific number of challenge opportunities per game based on previous rules.

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      1. No I understand the ABS rules. The Angels had an unsuccessfull challenge for a play in the field and lost their Challenge. Then in the 9th they got to reveiw a play via a crew chief review when they were out of challenges.

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        1. Crew chief reviews are independent of ABS challenges and are used to cover certain situational realities outside of balls and strikes, at least, that’s my inderstanding.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. ruff…correct………crew chief review…. From the eighth inning on, or on boundary home run calls at any time, crew chief umpires can independently initiate a review if a manager is out of challenges…covered in the Official Replay Review Regulations (often indexed under On-Field Regulation 2-12).

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            1. It’s a lot like the booth review rule in the last 2 minutes of games in the NFL. It worked against us here, but knowing how important it is to get the right call, I can’t say I disagree with this rule.

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  22. Brutal stretch for the boys. Didn’t realize it was 9 games west then home to take on the Braves.

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    1. I think Rincon would be in LV by now if it wasn’t for Reading sitting in 1st place with a 3.5 game lead and 11 games left. It will be interesting to see how he handles LV next season.

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  25. 2025 draft pick Richie Cortese getting some hype from Mitch Rupert and others is interesting, it’s a small sample size of course but still good to see.

    Yesterday was his fourth consecutive scoreless outing, and it was impressive. Threw 24 strikes on 30 pitches with 10 swings and miss. Topped out at 98.7 mph and averaged 96.7

    https://x.com/Mitch_Rupert/status/2094384477300486435

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    1. Even if you focus on his numbers after he returned from injury, his walk rate is over 5. And he’s 23 at Clearwater. Now I’ll be the first to tell you that age matters less when it comes to relievers, but relievers need to get their walks down.

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  26. Alex McFarlane has a 0.96 ERA with 4.8 walk rate and a 4.8 hit rate. The 4.8 hit rate is likely not sustainable considering I think Mason Miller is the only reliever with a similar hit rate. Duran’s hit rate is 7.7, Louis Varland is at 6.4, Aroldis Chapman is at 6.4.

    So if McFarlane’s hit rate goes up, he better bring his walk rate down.

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    1. McFarlane has been better with fewer walks recently. It’s amazing how much easier it is to be successful when you have a wipe-out breaking pitch and can throw 101 MPH.

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  28. 10 of next 13 against Arizona and Braves.

    Figure we need minimum of 6 wins to keep ahead in WC; and 8 minimum to gain any ground on Braves.

    Good time to make a statement

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  29. Since losing the WS to the Astros…the team has regressed each respective season……so missing the play-offs this season is the next logical regressive point. In the betting world that could be labeled a trend…now what would a rational betting man do! Currently the play-off odds are 97.6% to make the postseason, 5.8% to win World Series….so the odds maker are having them buck the trend.

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  30. The Mets put Luis Robert Jr. on waivers even though they traded for him earlier this season. The Orioles just claimed him and assumed the rest of his salary and next year’s buyout.

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  31. Alex McFarlane continues to amaze…..with both just the right amount of control and command. Almost like Kerkering’s ascension a few years ago. And Mattingly puts him pressure situations. and he is responding.

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    1. Kerkering had a killer slider/sweeper when he came up, but not that much else, and they had him throw that damned pitch over and over again until it wasn’t that effective. McFarlane clearly has better stuff (although probably worse control) than Kerkering. Like I said yesterday, 101 MPH smooths over a lot of problems. The only guy on the team who throws as hard as McFarlane is Duran – that’s it; and McFarlane has other pretty effective pitches too. He just needs to throw strikes – everything else will pretty much take care of itself.

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      1. The Issue with Kerkering now is the walks. To me, it looks like he’s not able to repeat his delivery (whether he’s trying hard to hide his pitches or trying to throw as hard as he can). He’s wild with all his pitches but more so with his fastball. He’s obviously a very talented guy but consistency will be the main issue with him. Also, not sure if he’s ready mentally for high leverage situations. Now yesterday, the Phillies needed 4 innings from their bullpen so Kerkering had to come in late, but for now, Kerkering is more of a 6-7 inning guy.

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        1. Kerkering has a number of issues and has for a long time. The walks. The lack of command (which is different than control). The lack of a single dominant pitch (he has a couple of very good pitches, but not one clear “out” pitch). And he struggles in high leverage situations. He’s a medium to low leverage major league reliever – just like you said, a 6-7 inning guy, which as real value in this day and age. He could develop into more, but otherwise, I think he is what he is and that’s useful, but limited. Just saying.

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  32. To Aaron Nola’s credit, he’s been effective enough lately to boost his WAR back to 2. He’s been limited to 5 innings (obviously trying to avoid him going a 3rd time through the order) but it’s been working. Going forward, this might be the path the Phillies will have to take to turn Nola into a 2-3 WAR pitcher and salvage any value from his remaining contract. It’s not ideal, but here we are. Nola’s days of 4+ WAR are long gone.

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    1. I mentioned this after his 2-inning stint against the dodgers in the postseason last year. He aired it out and hit 95 a couple of times. It wasn’t anything amazing, but he shut them out for 2 innings. So a curveball-heavy 5 innings with 2 runs every time out would be acceptable to me.

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  33. The Cubs are going to be a tough out in the playoffs. They can really hit and they play stellar defense. PCA looks like he’ll win MVP. Their weakness is their pitching.

    In case anybody is wondering, PCA went 19th overall in the 2020 draft to the Mets who traded him a year later to the Cubs in the Javy Baez deal (oops). All 4 OFs drafted before PCA has busted. In that same draft, the Phillies drafted Mick Abel 15th overall but flipped him as part of the Jhoan Duran deal (which obviously has worked out for the Phillies).

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  34. 25 games into Arraez’s tenure with the Phillies and he has been pretty mediocre TBH. His batting line is a sub par .283/.291/.394/.685. His defense has been mediocre and he has a negative WAR, -0.2

    That said, he has had a positive psychological impact on the team. Not sure if it is causal or correlated but they started playing better baseball with him in the lineup. More energy and several players have gotten hot.

    Moving Stott to 3B has turned out to be a great change. His defense at 3rd is +3 DRS with 4 OAA in only 203 innings. Massive defensive upgrade over Bohm.

    Bohm is finally hitting, but has been terrible defensively at 1B. -2 DRS and -3 OAA. Can’t hide Bohm anywhere on the field.

    Right now, we are playing great baseball, but Arraez’s impact has been more psychological than statistical. TBD on how it plays out from here.

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    1. Arraez needs to be more selective, especially since he has no power. There’s no reason why he can’t have a .375+ OBP with his eye at the plate and contact ability. He’s making contact at the plate but he’s swinging at a lot of pitches out of the zone. This current version of Arraez, I don’t want the Phillies to re-sign.

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      1. But it’s hard for Arraez to be more selective BECAUSE he has so little power. Pitchers don’t generally pitch around a guy like Arraez – they throw the ball in the strike zone and make him beat them. It’s the same reason why Ben Revere barely ever walked. Arraez has been a very good player this year because he hits the ball, doesn’t strike out and has played good defense. He’s played to a 3.9 WAR and its really nice having a guy in this particular line-up who doesn’t strike out. I’m okay with Arraez and it wouldn’t bother me at all if he’s back next year.

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        1. One question with the Arraez future with the Phillies….how long of a contract will it be. I do not see the AAV as a problem….but see with his age he may want a fairly long in years contract…possibly 5 years or more. Fortunately, Boras is not his agent.

          However, with Dave Dombrowski involved in the negotiations, I am a little worried.

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          1. Fair point. The world will not be beating down Arraez’s door this winter. There is no way in the world the contract should go more than 3 years, but with DD, it might!!

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        2. I think there is a near zero chance that Harper stays out on RF. So if they bring Arraez back, that means that Stott moves to 3B and they find a RF. Or Stott moves to SS, they move Trae to RF and try to find a 3B.

          As great as Stott has been defensively as a 3B, his hitting is not prototypical for 3B

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          1. Harper already mentioned that he’s going back to 1B after the season. I’m not the biggest fan of Arraez, I wouldn’t want to re-sign him.

            Stott is a good player but he’s not elite and I think Boras will ask for elite prices.

            Rincon will need an opportunity soon enough. Carson DeMartini has adjusted to AA. Aidan Miller’s injury really hampered the Phillies’ plans for him. He could have been the 3B starter for 2027 and now nobody knows what will happen.

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    2. I agree. Even though he isn’t lighting it up like how he was in San Fran, I still have the belief that he is going to produce a single every time he comes up. And if he doesn’t, I feel like you’re guaranteed a “pain in the butt” at bat. I also think with him batting 4th, some of the pressure is off of Bohm.

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  35. “No loner elite” “not aging well” Bryce Harper led the NL in OPS in August, with a 1.069 OPS, tied with Pete Crow-Armstrong. Unfortunately, PCA will likely win player of the month, due to his 14 homers in August.

    Regarding Arraez, maybe its a coincidence, but one of the strangest things I’ve seen is a Phillies team with a strikeout rate of 23.7% in the 4+ months leading up to the trade deadline, all of a sudden having a strikeout rate of 15.3% since then. Very weird. I mean, you can just strike out less?!?

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  36. I fully expect Stott to the be third baseman next year if Arraez is signed and I suspect he will be. If Stott can continue to be a slightly above average hitter and great defender, this can and should work out just fine.

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    1. The hitting bar for 3B is a lot higher (look at Max Muncy) so his oWar won’t be great even though he will likely be slightly positive dWar. If Stott stays at 3B, I would be shocked if he can get 3 WAR at that position.

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      1. Max Muncy is an outlier. If Stott stays at third, I think he can easily be a 3 WAR player and certainly better than Bohm. Elite fielding carries a lot of value.

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        1. Caleb Durbin has a .716 OPS which generates to an oWar of 2.3. Can Stott do that? Probably. However Durbin is elite defensively with a dWar of 1.4. I don’t believe Stott will be able to get to that, but in general, we’re splitting hairs. I don’t think he’ll be 3 WAR but he should be in the 2s. But pretty sure he won’t be 4 WAR at 3B.

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          1. Yes, agreed – unless he takes a major step forward on offense, he probably won’t be a 4 WAR at 3B, but then again, he probably wasn’t going to be a 4 WAR at 2B – high 2s to somewhere in the 3s is just fine. Way better than Bohm and they don’t need to sign Stott long term – let the season play out and then decide what to do.

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    1. The owners of the Rams is smart and Angels fans everywhere can rejoice. Moreno was a HORRIBLE owner who ran that team into the ground year after year. Good riddance!

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    2. Angels fans got what they wanted. The Angels were not able to bring the pieces to build around Trout. They drafted poorly (notably Jo Adell), didn’t trade Ohtani when all signs were pointing to him signing in LA, and signed FAs that blew up in their face (Anthony Rendon, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton).

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  38. Assume now Mike Trout will be put on the market. To see if he draws any interest. Turns 36 years old next season. Still will be his call. however, and just may settle to stay in Anaheim until he retires…..without any future post-season outlook unless they come up with a plan to get there within the next four years..

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    2. If Trout doesn’t see that the Angels are a mess, then he’s a dummy. But I think he’s very comfortable in Anaheim, and the Angels payroll next season is really low, under $100M. The Angels only have 2 players under contract next season: Trout and Kikuchi. The rest are arbitration players. Trout is 35 and still owed 4/148 so not too many teams are lining up to trade for that. The Angels would have eat a considerable amount of money to move both players.

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  39. Forgive me for writing this again. There is a reason why Arraez has been traveling from team to team the past half dozen years. He is a singles hitter and an average defender. If the Phillies offer him more than one year, I’d be shocked. Nobody, I mean nobody is going to give him a 5 year or even a 3 year deal. I’ll be surprised if a team gives him a 2 year contract. This guy is not the answer to the Phillies needs.

    Liked by 2 people

  43. 2 thoughts – been working more than usual – Is Marsh having a post Allstar 2nd half like Bohm did with his? I notice Harper has passed him in Avg & total hits. Marsh had a sizable lead. I mean they are on run, but it would be nice to regain that form going into October

    2nd: Ecobar vs Rincon is pretty interesting turn of events. Imagine if DD traded Escobar at last years deadline over Rincon. We would have been up in arms, but now… not so much now. What a difference a year makes.

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    1. As one who was very high on Aroon to now very subdued I have to remind myself he is just 21 and close to a full year younger than Rincon.

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  44. 23 games remain and much will be made of how these 7 games between the Braves and Phillies are played.

    If we manage to go 4-3 in those games there is a solid chance we take the division and vice versa. But head to head in a playoff series I like our chances.

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  45. It’s interesting to me that Luis Arraez has generated such angst among the posters here. While people are right that he hasn’t been great on the Phillies, it’s a small sample size and, on the whole, he’s had a very good year.

    From a structural standpoint, with lots of swing and miss, but high on base rates in the top of their line-up I actually like the backwards line-up construction that allows him to drive in these batters with singles and doubles. Batting him clean-up is obviously unorthodox, but I think he works well in this line-up.

    Now, let’s talk about the player. If people say that Arraez is not a good hitter, frankly, they are wrong. Arraez is a good offensive player, although he’s been inconsistent in his career. Arraez has played to a carre 116/117 OPS+ – that’s basically the same as Bo Bichette’s career OPS+. Objectively, that’s good offense. There’s a question of how well Arraez will age (and it’s a legit question) but historically he’s a very good offensive player.

    The issue is whether Arraez can continue to be a solid middle infielder, where the value of his hitting is enhanced. If the answer is yes, then he’s a very solid overall addition to any team and certainly to this team. If the answer is no, then his worth becomes much more questionable.

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    1. Imo Arraez is fine. Clearly a positive contributor to our lineup. If DD had signed him as a FA before the season, I think people would have felt differently. If DD said this offseason, we need to get Bohm off 3rd and signing Arraez is our best path (instead signing Adolis) people would have felt that it was an inspired move. I think that the extra scrutiny is related to the cost of acquiring Arraez. Marquez is a top pitching prospect. I have seen him recently ranked 34th best prospect in MLB. He is easily a top 100 prospect and likely will be a top 50 prospect on many lists. That is a very big price to pay. Also not having him under team control means that we will have to be the highest bidder to retain him. So people are reasonably concerned that DD will overpay to resign him. That’s the issue. Arraez’s production alone is fine.

      https://x.com/ericcrossmlb/status/2095173654053347549?s=46&t=-U_MfMB4sZDD0dW6wRaryg

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      2. I am admittedly, prios to his arrival in Philadelphia, not an Arraez fan. As good a hitter as he is, it almost feels empty at times.

        That being said, his skill set might be the perfect fit behind Bryce. It’s a very non-traditional cleanup hitter, but then again the Phillies’ leadoff hitter has 40 homers, too.

        It might just be that it works hitting behind a player like Bryce rather than hitting in front of him, as conventional wisdom would suggest. Sometimes unconventional wisdom works better. Maybe this is the case.

        Liked by 1 person

  46. Arraez is here now, so the Phillies will have no choice but to live with what he does for the rest of the season. I’m more concerned about whether or not the Phillies will re-sign him after the season. He’s passable at 2B defensively and he’s not really blocking anybody, unless people feel that he will block Rincon. Escobar has been a major disappointment so I think he’s out of the Phillies’ plans for now. Of course Arraez wants a long term deal but there’s a reason why he’s been bouncing around. His career slugging is .416. If the Phillies re-sign Arraez, I wouldn’t go more than 2 years. If he’s slugging .416 now, I worry how much it will go down as he ages. It wouldn’t bother me at all if Arraez walks after the season.

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    1. .416 career slugging for Arraez is not tremendous, but just for comparison to a couple infielders that the Phillies have had for years: Stott’s career slugging is .388 and Bohm’s career slugging is .410.

      I like Arraez’s career OBP of .361. Not making outs is super important.

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    1. This is a phenomenal stat and achievement and, while he and Sanchez deserve all the credit in the world, don’t kid yourself, Caleb Cotham, who we NEVER talk about here, deserves a ton of credit too. He is a tremendous pitching coach who can take excellent pitching talent and turn that talent into elite, consistent performance which is no small task. No other team in baseball has starting elite pitching talent that is this consistent and records this many innings. And while of course this speaks to some good luck in terms of health, this is not entirely a coincidence. Cotham is the man.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. if cotham isnt the best pitching coach in baseball, he’s close. Every pitcher that leaves philly i assume is going to be worse

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  48. ESPN has an article and they interviewed anonymous players about the salary cap. They mostly don’t want it. What does that mean? It’s a near given that 2027 will be a shortened season and I think the odds of losing the entire year is at least 25%.

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    1. without knowing more… I’d but it higher than that. I think both sides are willing to go longer than ever before to get what they want

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    2. What player, even anonymously, is oging to say they are in favor of a salary cap? Even if you are in favor, it undercuts your leverage if you tell ESPN that information

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  49. What an awesome bounce back by Painter. He looks like a different guy on the mound. This version is truly a monster, to use Mattingly’s phrase.

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    1. Simplifying his pitch selection worked wonders for him….and the new change-up grip seems to be what works best for him. With him and Nola coming around, the staff looks to be a deep play-off winning staff Now the bats have to come together.

      Liked by 2 people

  50. Painter: 7ip, 2h, 0r, 0bb, 6k! On road, against a team fighting for playoffs!

    68 of 93 pitches strikes.

    13 swinging strikes. (4 different pitches)

    All 6 Ks on swinging strikes. (3 diff pitches)

    Still throwing consistently 96/97 in 7th inning, to final batter.

    Liked by 2 people

      1. 1-3 had 6 of the 9k’s… a man named trea had 3 of the 9… 33% and 1-3 had 66% of their K’s.. 1-3 did painter dirty.. Trea needs off the 2 slot.. i don’t care if it messes with the ability to go LRL etc.. anybody will be better then trea atm.. give it to stott for a spell, he at least see’s on avg more then 3-4 pitches per AB.. has to see what 4-6 range.. i’m sure there is a stat for it

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    1. I told everyone they needed to be patient with him. He is now starting to look like a suitable “big 3” replacement for Wheeler, which would be a huge development. One other thing – the struggles he had last year and early this year, will really help him in the long run to stay focused and trust his process and that, with work, focus and patience, he can get through the rough patches. We all know about how Halladay struggled early in his career and, by the way, so did Luzardo!

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      2. Scherzer too, which is why DD was able to steal him for Detroit. I wonder if he had Max in mind when he was patient with Painter.

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      3. I’m trying to manage expectations but that’s getting harder to do. Having a set starting 5 going into 2027 is nice. Still need depth but your 6th starter might be Gage Wood. At the very least, he’s in the conversation which is way more than could be said for this year.

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      4. Ben called it out yesterday and I noticed it as well. There seems to be more cut on his FB which is definitely helping against LHBs.

        You could see in the early months of the season that is what was missing. His FB in the zone was getting hammered and now he’s inducing a greater degree of weak contact.

        Liked by 1 person

    1. I think baseball is ready to re-introduce a juiced baseball to MLB and are doing a trial run in the minors. Something has to give – offense is down far too much in the big league. But this would explain guys like Bryan Rincon cranking out a bunch of opposite field homers.

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      1. Pitchers again will be up in arms. Back in 2019 Justin Verlander openly criticized MLB, arguing that changes to the baseballs are turning the game into a joke. They point to sudden spikes in home run rates, blisters caused by altered seams, and a general lack of consistency in how the ball feels and reacts coming off the bat. Many grew more suspicious after MLB purchased ball manufacturer Rawlings. Looks like MLB may be going down that road again.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. They just seem to randomly juice the balls anyway. Remember when Sanchez got demolished by the Royals? That happened 4 days after MLB acknowledged a “manufacturing defect” in the baseballs that made them discolored. They denied that the balls were juiced, but they also denied the balls were juiced in 2019.

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  55. This is officially head-spinning, after DD’s recent comments: Murton says Aidan Miller is “progressing very well,” and there might be a “surprise” soon.

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