Here’s a new Phillies Discussion. 

The Phillies have played eight series since the All Star break.  They lost 3-game series against the Mets (1-2), Dodgers (1-2), Yankees (1-2), Marlins (0-3), Blue Jays (1-2), and Cardinals (1-2).  They won series against the Orioles (2-1) and Nationals (3-1).  They have won just 10 of 25 games.

The Phillies’ playoff chances lessen with each loss.  Atlanta and Los Angeles have comfortable leads in their divisions.  Milwaukee and Chicago are separated by three games.  Either would have a comfortable lead for the top wild card.  San Diego has moved ahead of Arizona and the Phillies by a game.  Arizona currently holds the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Phillies 2-1.  The teams meet in Arizona at the end of the month for three games.  Should they end the season in a tie with the Padres, the Phillies hold the head-to-head tie-breaker, 6-0.

The Phillies poor play has brought other teams back into the wild card race.  Miami and St. Louis are within three games of the final spot.  Washington, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh have pulled closer but are still five to six games back and probably not realistic threats.

Here’s a quick look at some rotation stats.

Sanchez has 25 starts, a 15-4 record, and a 2.54 ERA.  Of his 6 No Decisions (ND), he pitched well enough to win four of them.  He gave up 1 earned run (ER) in 5.1 innings pitched (IP)of his first ND, 2 ER in 6.2 IP of his third ND, 0 ER in 8.0 IP in his fourth ND, and 0 ER in 6.0 IP of his sixth ND.  Of course these things sometimes balance – he gave up 11 ER on 10.1 IP of his other two ND.

Sanchez has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 20 of his 25 starts. He allowed 6, 4, 5,9, and 3 ER in his other 5 starts.  With a little better support, he might have several more wins.

Nola has 24 starts, a 3-9 record, and a 5.47 ERA.  Of his 11 ND, he pitched well enough to have 3 or 4 more wins.  He gave up 3 ER in 5.0 IP twice, 2 ER in 5.0 IP four times, 3 ER in 6.0 IP once.  He also gave up 3 ER in 4.2 IP twice and 6 ER in 3.2 IP and 5 ER in 4.1 IP.

Nola has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 9 of his 24 starts.  He gave up 3 ER in 8 of his starts, 4 ER in one start, 5 ER in 3 starts, 6 ER in 2 starts, and 7 runs in one start.  His inability to go deeper in games leaves him at the mercy of four relievers each start and keeps him from logging more wins.

Luzardo has  24 starts, a 10-5 record, and a 3.32 ERA.  Of his 9 ND, he pitched well enough to win 5 or 6 of them.  He gave up 1 ER in 4.2 IP, 0 ER in 6.0 IP (the Suarez game), 2 ER in 5.1 IP, 1 ER in 6.2 IP, 1 ER in 5.0 IP, and 2 ER in 7.0 IP.  But, he also escaped with ND after giving up 5, 5, and 6 ER in 3 other ND.

Luzardo has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 18 of his 24 starts.  He gave up 5 ER in 3 starts, 6 ER in 2 starts, and 8 ER in one start.  He was victimized by blown saves in 3 of his starts.  With a little better support, he certainly could have another 6 or 7 wins.

Wheeler has 20 starts, a 10-4 record, and a 2.89 ERA.  Of his 6 ND, he pitched well enough to pick up another couple wins.  He gave up 2 ER in 5.0 IP in his first start of the season.  He gave up 3 ER in 6.1 IP, 1 ER in 6.0 IP, and 0 ER in 2.0 IP in a game that had a long rain delay.  He gave up 4 ER in 4.2 IP and 5 ER in 3.0 IP in his other 2 ND.

Wheeler has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 14 of his 20 starts.  He gave up 3 ER once, 4 ER four times, and 5 ER once.  He pitched well enough to have one maybe 2 more wins.  He has given up 4 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 games (the other was the rain-delay game).  If the trend continues, maybe they brought him back too early?  Or his age is showing?

Painter has 15 starts, a 2-8 record, and a 6.27 ERA.  He also has 2 games where he followed an opener.  Of his 7 ND, he pitched well enough to pick up a couple more wins.  He gave up 1 ER in his first game following an opener.  He was the victim of an Alvarado blown save.  He gave up 1 ER in 5.0 IP in a game that was tied when he departed.  He gave up 2 ER in 6.0 IP and was the victim of a Keller blown save.  He gave up 2 ER in 6.0 IP and was the victim of a Kerkering blown save.  He gave up 1 ER in 4.0 IP before leaving due to thigh tightness.  He gave up 4 ER in 4.0 IP and 5 ER in 5.0 IP in his other 2 ND.

Painter has allowed 0, 1, or 2 ER in 8 of his 17 starts/appearances.  In his other 9 games, he allowed 3 ER twice, 4 ER twice, 5 ER twice, 6 ER twice, and 8 ER once.  He has been effective in his last 3 starts since returning from Lehigh Valley – 5 ER (2-1-2) in 15.1 IP.  He has pitched well enough to have more wins.

I’m goin to pass on the other 11 games – Walker (4), Backhus/Walker (1), Mayza/Rangel, (2) Rangel (3), and a bullpen game (1).  They have been 1-9 with a ND in those games.  Rangel pitched well enough to have 1 (maybe 2) wins in those games.

Sorry to put you all through this but a comment spurred me to look something up.  The data presented was the end result.  I think it shows that the record attached to the fifth or fourth/fifth starters by media and others is not quite accurate or at best doesn’t present a clear picture.  Not that the above stuff is all that clear.

I’m aware that 3 ER in six IP has been considered a quality start since 1985.  (Thank you to John Lowe of the Philadelphia Inquirer.)  I don’t know why I focused on 0, 1, 2 ER.  Probably twofold.  First, I randomly started with Luzardo and was amazed that he either gave up 2 or less ER or 5 or more ER.  He hasn’t given up 3 or 4 ER in a game this season.  Second, I wanted to convey the impression that if the Phillies had just scored one more run than the starters gave up in those games they would have won them all.  I felt that it was more reasonable to expect 3 runs than 4 runs from our daily lineup.  Of course, I know that they would also have to cover the runs the bullpen gave up.  But, the point wasn’t to show the bullpen’s shortfalls but rather to focus on the solid pitching (if applicable) from all five starters.

Important Dates

• July 27, 2026, 5:00 p.m. ET: Deadline to sign 2026 draft picks
  • Deadline applies to players drafted out of 4-year colleges and HS
• August 3, 2026: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. ET
• August 7-8, 2026: Date players who signed on July 23-24 have to placed on a roster (15 days after signing for both draftees and UDFAs)
• August 13, 2026: Field of Dreams Game, Thursday game from Phillies at Twins series
• December 1, 2026 (11:59 p.m. ET): MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.  (Note that there are many more dates to add from Spring Training through the end of the 2026 season and calendar year.  I will add when I have accurate dates for them.)

Transactions

08/12/2026 – Jersey Shore placed 2B Tyler Pettorini on the 7-day IL
08/12/2026 – Jersey Shore activated OF Joel Dragoo from the Development List
08/12/2026 – Clearwater placed RHP MT Morrissey on the 7-day IL retroactive to 8/10
08/12/2026 – Clearwater activated RHP Cole Gilley from the Development List
08/12/2026 – 2B Juan Medina assigned to DSL Phillies
08/12/2026 – DSL Phillies placed RHP Albertt Medina on the 60-day IL
08/11/2026 – Phillies recalled RHP Alex McFarlane from Lehigh Valley
08/11/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Alan Rangel to Lehigh Valley
08/11/2026 – Lehigh Valley placed RHP Daniel Robert on the FS IL
08/11/2026 – C Mark Kolozsvary assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
08/11/2026 – Reading transferred C Guillermo Rosario to the Development List
08/11/2026 – RHP Brandon Beckel assigned to Jersey Shore from Lehigh Valley
08/11/2026 – SS Romeli Espinosa assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
08/11/2026 – Jersey Shore transferred OF Joel Dragoo to the Development List
08/11/2026 – SS Reece Moroney assigned to Clearwater from FCL Phillies
08/10/2026 – Phillies placed RHP Caleb Kilian on the 15-day IL, left oblique strain
08/10/2026 – Phillies recalled RHP Chase Shugart from Lehigh Valley
08/09/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Chase Shugart to Lehigh Valley
08/09/2026 – Phillies recalled RHP Alan Rangel from Lehigh Valley
08/09/2026 – Lehigh Valley transferred LHP Kolby Allard from the 7-day to the 60-day IL
08/09/2026 – RHP Brandon Beckel assigned to Lehigh Valley from Jersey Shore
08/09/2026 – Lehigh Valley released C Lou Albrecht
08/09/2026 – Clearwater released RHP Peyton Havard
08/08/2026 – Clearwater placed SS Owen Clyne on the 7-day IL
08/08/2026 – SS Romeli Espinosa assigned to Clearwater from FCL Phillies
08/07/2026 – Phillies signed FA RHP Lou Trivino III to an MiLB contract
08/07/2026 – RHP Lou Trivino III assigned to Lehigh Valley
08/07/2026 – Lehigh Valley placed LHP Kolby Allard on the 7-day IL retroactive to 8/6
08/07/2026 – Lehigh Valley activated C Payton Henry
08/07/2026 – Reading sent 3B Bryson Ware on a rehab assignment to Jersey Shore
08/07/2026 – Jersey Shore activated RHP Ryan Dromboski from the 7-day IL
08/07/2026 – Jersey Shore placed C Alirio Ferrebus on the 7-day IL retroactive to 8/6
08/07/2026 – Jersey Shore sent SS Brady Day on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
08/07/2026 – Jersey Shore activated LHP Kevin Warunek from the 7-day IL
08/06/2026 – Lehigh Valley transferred C Jordan Dissin to the Development List
08/06/2026 – Lehigh Valley transferred C Lou Albrecht to the Development List