Phillies Discussion (3/23/2026)

The 2026 season is upon us.  The Phillies closed out their Grapefruit League schedule today and left for Philadelphia soon after.  Lehigh Valley has already left Clearwater flying out Sunday morning. 


Rosters have been finalized across all levels.  They will be published by the affiliates after players are notified of their assignments.

This has been an unusual spring for the Phillies.  Those of us who follow assignments closely cannot recall a spring where nobody was released outright out of the major league camp.  LHP Tim Mayza and UTIL Dylan Moore were nominally released so that they could be resigned to major league contracts prior to making the 40-man and the active rosters.  RHP Zach McCambley was selected during the Rule 5 draft and recently offered back to Miami.  Everyone else (so far) has been reassigned to the minor league camp, reassigned to Lehigh Valley, or optioned to Lehigh Valley.  Possibly one of the features brought on by the WBC and the need to hold onto players longer.


The Phillies opening day roster has few surprises.  As expected, Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter made the team.  Rafael Marchan was selected over Garrett Stubbs who will likely be DFA-ed.  With the state of the catcher market, it is likely that Stubbs will end up on another team.  Adolis Garcia is Nick Castellanos replacement.  He is already an upgrade due to his superior defense AND his willingness to listen to the hitting coaches.  Dylan Moore won the battle for the final bench spot and the 26th man.  His positional flexibility gave him the edge over the better hitting Bryan De La Cruz.  The aforementioned Mayza gets the bullpen nod due to Orion Kerkering’s early stint on the IL.


A couple of prospect notes:

  • Felix Reyes is as big as he appears to be on TV.  He’s built along the lines of Darick Hall who was only an inch taller and 55 lbs. heavier.  So, yes Reyes is likely more than his listed 195 lbs.
  • Anderson Navas after a year as a catcher in the DSL has been switched over to pitching.  He has a FB that its 96-98 and is expected to pick up a couple ticks as he learns how to refine his pitching approach.
  • The prospect team was comprised of 28 of the Phillies top 30 (recently signed IFAs #5 Rentaria and #23 Parra were not included).  The 12 additions to fill out the 40-man group were RHPs Tyler Bowen, Luke Gabrysh, Titan Kennedy-Hayes, Anderson Navas, Brad Pacheco, Brian Walters, C Anderson Araujo, C/1B Caleb Ricketts, 1B/OF Felix Reyes, and OFs Dylan Campbell, Raylin Heredia, John Spikerman.

Wheeler and Kerkering pitched on the back field before the Phillies’ game today.  No gun available to judge velo but Wheeler’s command looked good.  In two innings he gave up just one hard hit ball that was either a ground rule double or HR, couldn’t tell which side of the fence it bounced.  Kerkering looked good too.


The remaining three affiliates play games through Thursday then break camp on the 28th.  Their rosters will be completed before then and publicized by the affiliates.  Look for most of the recent draft picks to be at Clearwater.  And maybe Nori at Reading, Escobar at Jersey Shore, and if healthy Burkholder at Clearwater.


Important Dates

  • February 16, 2026: Beginning of new waiver period (February 16 – April 24, 2026). Outright Waivers secured on or after February 16, 2026, remain in effect for 7 days or until 5 p.m. EST, April 24, 2026 (the 30th day of the 2026 season), whichever is earlier. MLR 10.
  • March 3-28, 2026: Minor League Spring Training Camp
    • March 22,2026: Lehigh Valley breaks camp
    • March 24,2026: Blue Jays vs Phillies – AA – 1 PM
    • March 25,2026: Tigers vs Phillies – High A/Low A – 1 PM
    • March 26, 2026: Yankees vs Phillies – AA – 1 PM
  • March 26, 2026: Phillies 2026 season and home opener vs. Texas
  • March 26, 2026: Active rosters reduced to 26 (13 pitchers) by Noon ET
    • March 28, 2026: Reading breaks camp
    • March 28, 2026: Jersey Shore breaks camp
    • March 28, 2026: Clearwater breaks camp
  • July 11, 2026: 2026 MLB All-Star Futures Game, Philadelphia PA
  • July 12-13, 2026: MLB First-Year Player Draft, Philadelphia PA (Phillies drop 10 slots)
  • December 1, 2026 (11:59 p.m. ET): MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.  (Note that there are many more dates to add from Spring Training through the end of the 2026 season and calendar year.  I will add when I have accurate dates for them.)


Transactions

March 2026
03/22/2026 – Jersey Shore released RHP Nathan Karaffa
03/22/2026 – Jersey Shore released RHP Erik Ritchie
03/22/2026 – Clearwater released RHP Eli Trop
03/22/2026 – Lehigh Valley released RHP A.J. Wilson
03/22/2026 – Clearwater released RHP Marcus Morgan
03/22/2026 – INF Cairo assigned to Lehigh Valley
03/22/2026 – OF Bryan De La Cruz assigned to Lehigh Valley
03/22/2026 – INF Liover Peguero assigned to Lehigh Valley
03/22/2026 – C Garrett Stubbs designate for assignment
03/22/2026 – RHP Lou Trivino optioned to Lehigh Valley
03/22/2026 – Phillies sign LHP Tim Mayza to 1-year MLB contract
03/22/2026 – RHP Zach McCambley (Rule 5 pick) returned to Miami
03/22/2026 – Phillies extend RHP Cristopher Sanchez to 2032 with 2033 option
03/22/2026 – RHP Zach McCambley returned to Miami from Phillies
03/22/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Chase Shugart to Lehigh Valley
03/21/2026 – Phillies sign FA UTIL Dylan Moore to MLB contract
03/21/2026 – Phillies select Justin Crawford’a contract
03/21/2026 – Phillies acquired INF Carter Kieboom from Cleveland for cash
03/21/2026 – Lehigh Valley released LHP Tim Mayza
03/21/2026 – Lehigh Valley released 2B Dylan Moore
03/21/2026 – RHP Genesis Cabrera reassigned to Minor League camp
03/19/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Seth Johnson Lehigh Valley
03/19/2026 – LHP Tucker Davidson reassigned to Minor League camp
03/19/2026 – C Paul McIntosh reassigned to Minor League camp
03/19/2026 – C Rene Pinto reassigned to Minor League camp
03/19/2026 – RHP Bryse Wilson reassigned to Minor League camp
03/18/2026 – CF Dante Nori reassigned to Minor League camp
03/18/2026 – 1B Felix Reyes reassigned to Minor League camp
03/15/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Nolan Hoffman to Lehigh Valley
03/15/2026 – Phillies optioned RF Pedro León to Lehigh Valley
03/15/2026 – LHP Andrew Walling reassigned to Minor League camp
03/15/2026 – INF José Rodriguez reassigned to Minor League camp
03/14/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Alan Rangel to Lehigh Valley
03/14/2026 – INF Keaton Anthony reassigned to Minor League camp
03/13/2026 – 3B Carson DeMartini reassigned to Minor League camp
03/13/2026 – OF Dylan Campbell reassigned to Minor League camp
03/13/2026 – INF Aroon Escobar reassigned to Minor League camp
03/13/2026 – SS Bryan Rincon reassigned to Minor League camp
03/12/2026 – INF Aidan Miller reassigned to Minor League camp
03/12/2026 – RHP Andrew Bechtold reassigned to Minor League camp
03/12/2026 – RHP Michael Mercado reassigned to Minor League camp
03/12/2026 – C Kehden Hettiger reassigned to Minor League camp
03/12/2026 – C Mark Kolozsvary reassigned to Minor League camp
03/12/2026 – C Caleb Ricketts reassigned to Minor League camp
03/12/2026 – INF Christian Cairo reassigned to Minor League camp
03/12/2026 – OF Pedro León reassigned to Minor League camp
03/10/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with LHP Jesús Luzardo on a five-year contract for 2027-2031
03/08/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Alex McFarlane to Reading
03/07/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Jean Cabrera to Lehigh Valley
03/07/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Moisés Chace to Lehigh Valley
03/07/2026 – Phillies optioned RHP Yoniel Curet to Lehigh Valley
03/07/2026 – Phillies optioned RF Gabriel Rincones Jr. to Lehigh Valley
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies Red released RHP Joshue De La Cruz
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies Red released RHP Juan Duarte
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies Red released LHP Carlos Duran
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies Red released RHP Enderson Jean
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies White released RHP Cristhian Espinosa
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies White released RHP Yordy Magdariaga
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies White released RHP Jesus Moreno
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies White released RHP Julio Polanco
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies White released RHP Eduardo Robles
03/06/2026 – DSL Phillies White released LHP Reyner Zambrano
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with LHP Kyle Backhus on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Jonathan Bowlan on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Jean Cabrera on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Moisés Chace on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Yoniel Curet on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Nolan Hoffman on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Seth Johnson on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Orion Kerkering on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Max Lazar on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Zach McCambley on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Alex McFarlane on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Andrew Painter on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Alan Rangel on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP Chase Shugart on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP INF Otto Kemp on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP OF Pedro León on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP OF Gabriel Rincones Jr. on a one-year contract
03/06/2026 – Phillies agreed to terms with RHP OF Johan Rojas on a one-year contract
03/05/2026 – RHP Tyler Bowen assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Cody Bowker assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Jean Cabrera assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Moisés Chace assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Gabe Craig assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Matthew Fisher assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Luke Gabrysh assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – LHP Mavis Graves assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Titan Kennedy-Hayes assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Ramon Marquez assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Alex McFarlane assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Anderson Navas assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – LHP Cade Obermueller assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Brad Pacheco assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Andrew Painter assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Wen-Hui Pan assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – LHP James Tallon assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Brian Walters assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Gage Wood assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – RHP Sean Youngerman assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – C Anderson Araujo assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – C Alirio Ferrebus assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – C Kehden Hettiger assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – C/1B Caleb Ricketts assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – 1B Keaton Anthony assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – 3B Carson DeMartini assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – 2B Aroon Escobar assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – SS Romeli Espinosa assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – SS Matthew Ferrara assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – SS Aidan Miller assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – 1B/OF Felix Reyes assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – SS Bryan Rincon assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – OF Griffin Burkholder assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – OF Dylan Campbell assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – OF Justin Crawford assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – OF Raylin Heredia assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – OF Dante Nori assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – OF Gabriel Rincones Jr. assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – OF Devin Saltiban assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects
03/05/2026 – OF John Spikerman assigned to Philadelphia Phillies Prospects

138 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion (3/23/2026)

    1. rocco…does Vegas know something we may not know!….. Phillies’ 2026 win total is widely set at 89.5 across major sportsbooks like BetMGM, DraftKings, and Caesars, While some analysts suggest targeting the over due to the team’s recent success, but CBS Sports and sports.betmgm.com, note potential for regression and lean toward the under

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          1. Romus. I told Ruff few weeks back I was taking 88. That was before the good news on Wheeler progression. I saw that CBS list today at 89.5. Most likely be in that area somewhere. One would think with Duran not many 9th inning games are going to get flipped.

            Like Rocco I am a little hesitant on the offense as well. It is not as though we have not seen this movie before. Lots of the same guys. Just have to wait and seen. By far and away ability to stay away from injuries is so important for any team and will be for Phillies as well.

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      1. I’d take the over. I think they will be right around 90 wins. I don’t see them dropping below that total but it will be close…

        Liked by 1 person

        1. If Painter is solid and Wheeler roughly resembles pre-surgery Wheeler, it’s hard to imagine them winning much fewer than 90 games – the rotation is incredibly solid and I like the bullpen. Ultimately, I think the issue will be, as it has been for the last 3 or 4 years – the ability to hit consistently in the playoffs. Call it being hot at the right time, call it having the right line-up, call it whatever you want, but if they don’t get consistent hitting in the playoffs, it will be another long winter.

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        2. I got the line at 90.5 and took the under. Nola, Wheeler, Painter all question marks in rotation. I like Luzardo but he buckled a bit under the innings pitched last year, lets see if he can go 190ish again.

          The bullpen looks better on paper, but Keller doesn’t have much of a track record and a bunch of fliers on the back end.

          The lineup is what it is, including a year older.

          Mets look improved and I thought the Braves would have better luck, but that doesn’t seem to be panning out.

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  1. An odd fact regarding transactions this spring is that across MLB, players are not being reassigned to minor league camp as they have been in the past. I mean, they are but the teams are not publishing the transactions. The only record of a player being sent back to minor league camp so far has been by third parties like the local sport writers.

    In fact, MLB has gone so far as to remove all camp reassignments from last season. Doesn’t make sense to me. They file a transaction for every minor leaguer they bring up to sit on the bench or in the bullpen during a spring training game, but they hide the reassignment of NRIs (and the daily call ups back) to minor league camp.

    Not a big deal but it bugs the crap out of me.

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    1. Escobar going back to JS is a wake up call to him. He is one of my high conviction prospects but clearly he seemed ill prepared for ST.

      He got 5 games in AA to finish last season and at 21 it would be no big deal for most not to begin where he finished.

      No doubt he has the talent and ability but he’ll need to learn quick its about consistent performance not flashing here or there.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I don’t have an issue with that. He’s still only 21 and Stott won’t be a FA until 2028. There’s no rush and it’s not like he ripped at JS.

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        1. To me, he’s a very complete prospect. He’ll tell us when he’s ready by his performance, but I expect him to be promoted by mid-year at the latest. They may want him in single A ball because they are working on something in particular.

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  2. Wheeler heading to LV for official rehab assignment. Article said he was throwing 94 at about 90% effort.

    Assuming no setbacks, probably ready in late April.

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    1. To add to this, Wheeler’s rehab starts this Saturday where he will go 3 innings. He mentioned that he will get around 4 starts in the minors.

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  3. McGarry has been returned. Let’s see if moving him back to starting at LHV works better than the multiple failed attempts at making him a reliever.

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    1. Agreed – he’s better as a starter than as a reliever. Nice depth piece. In our prior fantasies he became Nolan McLean.

      By the way, while nobody was paying attention, the Mets became pretty damned good at developing prospects. We’ll see if they actually pan out.

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      1. Mets really lucked out with Mclean…..as a Okie State Cowboy in three years he pitched a grand total of 57 innings walking 34 batters and giving up 52 hits with 29 earned runs….Mets developed him well.

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      2. I can’t believe I’m saying this but the Mets got value for Nimmo, Alonso, McNeil. All 3 had at least 22.9 WAR and all 3 were NOT first round picks which is a credit to them. And all 3 are now on other teams.

        Their pitching development has been way more suspect.

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    2. Cautionary tale. Last year the Twins returned Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano to the Phillies after unsuccessfully trying to convert him to a reliever. He struggled in 2 starts, one at Reading in late April and another at Jersey Shore in early May and finished the season as a reliever for Reading.

      The Phillies might experience similar difficulties trying to stretch McGarry out as a starter again. It might take longer to straighten him out after his time with the Nats.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Just a few nitpicks regarding the roster. Dylan Moore is a nothing burger. Maybe im in the wrong, but I would have kept De La Cruz over him, especially with how well he played in Winter ball AND Spring Training, he seems to be rolling, would have given him a chance to keep it up. I’m also tired of crappy hitting and liked that he actually had big hit potential.

    I liked what I saw out of McCambley too and would have loved to keep him in the org. None of these are deal breakers though.

    The big thing that bugs me is were still trotting Bohm out in the cleanup spot. Im ready to end the Bohm era overall, but if he must stay I really wish they reconsidered his lineup spot.

    Overall I think the team will give us a mostly fun summer and probably meet a similar fate to what we have seen the past few seasons. Maybe this is the year DD pushes chips in at the deadline, but I do wish he did a little bit more for the roster in the offseason.

    Regardless, lets go Phils. Its a great time of year. 72 and sunny for the home opener Thursday, cant ask for better than that.

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    1. I seriously doubt that Dylan Moore will get 200ABs, especially with a platoon in LF. Best case, he nets the Phillies 1 WAR but I seriously doubt he’ll get that. Let’s put it this way, none of the backup OFs last season had more than 0.5 WAR.

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    2. I also liked de la Cruz over Moore and McCambley over Mayza, but my breakout candidates for 2026 are Bohm and Stott

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  5. Service time pops up again with the Pirates.

    …. No. 1 prospect in baseball is a can’t-miss. Five tools, 19-years-old, 6-foot-3 and 222 pounds — Konnor Griffin…..the ideal prototype at his position of ss. However, this past Saturday, the Pirates announced he was returning to minor-league camp, a likely service-time maneuver. In his first professional season, Griffin posted a .941 OPS, hit .333, hit 21 home runs, totaled 48 extra-base hits, drove in 94 and swiped 65 bases. Pittsburgh invested in free agency for the first time in years, and his arrival could make them a legitimate playoff contender.

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    1. Let’s be fair to the Pirates. If you were running the team, wouldn’t you mess with his service time as an opportunity to get him for another year? This team has to play games like this to stay competitive. They are just doing what the system forces them to do.

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    2. Even though he’s the #1 prospect, Griffin is still only 19 (20 next month) and only spent 1 full year in the minors. So I can see a bit of a reason for holding him back.

      There was no reason for the Pirates to hold back Skenes 2 years ago as a dominant college pitcher.

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      1. IMO, smart move for the Pirates. If he turns into a star , he could ahve been be on the free agency market at 26 years old—and more than likely with Boros as his agent……,like Soto and Harper. Though the delay, would only give them one more year of his service. Pirates could do what the Braves did with Acuna and Albies and what the Sox did with Anthony and just give him that 8/9 yr LTC if he proves to be the major leaguer they expect him to be and they can see that in his first or second year.

        I’d think they would try to do something like that with Skenes before Boros gets a hold of him.

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        1. Griffin has not yet appeared in AAA. They could get an extra draft pick if they promote him and he wins ROY award, but I also see the benefits of service time and getting more experience

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          1. So, oddly enough, if they delay his promotion, then the extra year of service time only applies if the player does NOT win ROY. So, in this case, the team’s incentives are strangely mixed – so if they wait, they really are better off if he does not win the award – a gamble they took (and failed on) with Paul Skenes.

            But everyone is downplaying the possibility of an extra year of control – that extra year is extremely valuable to the team in so many ways – if I were the Pirates, I would probably delay his promotion time too and, here, since he’s never played in AAA there’s a legitimate non-financial reason to do that as well.

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  6. I wonder if they will go with a 6 man rotation when Wheeler comes back. I think that makes sense.

    Not only will that help Wheeler keep the innings down it will also do the same for Painter. If he is going to be available in the playoffs, then we need to manage his innings. I think a 6 man rotation would help.

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    1. You can only do a 6 man rotation for a short period of time. Why? Because you’re now limited to 7 relievers. Actually, you’re limited to 5 relievers if a starter goes down early due to injury or they get bombed, because you won’t be pitching Duran or Alvarado, and definitely not multiple innings. Not sure who the long man would be, but that person would get burned up for multiple innings and would not be available for a few days. The issue isn’t the game where the starter gets knocked out early. It’s the 2 games afterwards where some bullpen guys would be not available.

      The only way you would get away with a 6 man rotation is if you’re a young team with optionable young relievers. Then you can play the option game to bring up other relievers on your 40 man roster. The Phillies won’t be doing that.

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      1. Hmm…a long man can be easily sourced through the minors. Imo the bigger issue to manage is ensuring that Painter and Wheeler still have innings left for the playoffs. Even if Painter becomes a RP during the playoffs, you want him out of the pen. And Wheeler needs to be fresh for playoffs. I think there is real advantage to having a 6 man rotation for much of the year to keep those guys available.

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        1. Agreed. In fact, I would rather have Wheeler throw 25-30 innings in October than in May. It’ll be a moot point once they start his rehab 30-day clock at Lehigh Valley on Saturday. But I would have seriously considered waiting to see how the rotation fared in April before rushing to any decisions on Wheeler. He only threw 149.2 innings in 24 starts last season. I hope they don’t expect 180-200 this season. And I would have preferred he pitch in warm weather Florida than up north where the forecast for Saturday doesn’t reach the 50s during the day and drops into the 30s at night.

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  7. If the over-under on the Phillies is 90 wins I’ll take the under.

    As a fan, I see all of the good things happening and can hope for some pleasant surprises. As a realist, I know that some things will go wrong, either as some players age or as the unexpected happens, as in injuries.

    One positive I’m expecting (hoping for) is that Christopher Sanchez continues to develop and becomes the leading Cy Young candidate

    So, here’s hoping everything goes as planned and we finally get the October we want.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. You know, seeing that Zack Wheeler is likely to be a very good pitcher again at the least, I’m taking the over. I think if this current group of Phillies is going to win a WS, this is the year they will do it and, if it happens, some of the younger players – Crawford, Painter, Kemp (as good of a breakout candidate as exists on this team), Bowlan, Backhus, and even Miller could be important pieces of the puzzle.

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      1. rocco…here is the majority Vegas books NL East breakdown:

        Mets: 90.5….

        Phillies: 89.5 ….

        Braves: 87.5 or 88.5….

        Marlins: 72.5 ….

        Nationals: 69.5 ….

        Braves are hurting already at pitching with Strider’s oblique strain.

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    2. The division overall is really weak. That’s my thesis for the 90+ wins. I’ll add no more Romano and Ross in the pen. Full seasons of Duran Alvarado and Keller in the pen.

      I’ll grant nothing on paper is ever a given but I see just enough of a cushion between the 96 wins last season and 90 this season.

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  8. Dmar, Bullpen definitely appears stronger, though bullpens are wildly unpredictable over a full season. Have to admit, though, you guys are making me a little more optimistic.

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    1. Starting 5: small downgrade. Nobody knows what will happen to Wheeler but hopeful that he can still replicate his 5 WAR from last season. It’s asking a lot for Sanchez to do 8 WAR again. Replacing Saurez’s 4.8 WAR will depend on a Nola rebound and Painter being at least average.

      Bullpen: big upgrade. Having Duran for the whole year and Alvarado not being suspended. Keller will have to replace Strahm’s 1.9 WAR which will be tough. No Romano and Ross is addition by subtraction.

      Hitting 9: small upgrade. Betting on angry Harper and motivated Bohm. Stott looks a lot better. But half of these guys are easily in their 30s (Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Realmuto, Garcia). Does Realmuto have anything left?

      Liked by 1 person

  9. When Wheeler is ready to go, the #5 starter comes down to (it’s) Walker (time) and Painter. If Walker is doing better than Painter to that point, Walker is in and Painter goes to LHV where he can pitch every 5th game.

    If Painter is doing better, Walker moves to the long role and a guy like Mayza is sent down. The Phillies will not release Walker as I see it but then again I can be blind in one eye and not be able to see out of the other.

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    1. That’s not how the team is going to approach this. The team has no future investment in Walker and have invested everything in Painter. So long as Painter is pitching competently and developing, he is going to be in the rotation. Painter only gets removed if he’s really struggling (and could benefit from a demotion) or is injured. It’s not a straight competition as you’ve articulated it – not even close.

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      1. Agree. They are not going to yo-yo Painter back and forth between AAA and the big club.

        He’s in the rotation unless he completely implodes or has injury issues.

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        1. Yes, agreed. It’s exactly like when you have a young starting quarterback and a journeyman back-up. You don’t want to keep starting and then benching the young quarterback. Unless he’s injured or is doing so poorly that it’s hurting his development, you need to ride it out and let him develop. That’s exactly what will happen with Painter. He’s going to get a shot and they will try desperately not to move him from that rotation.

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          1. Same applies to Crawford who will get a very long leash as the everyday CF.

            He would have to be struggling well into May/June before they would make any move to replace him unless he completely crashes.

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    1. It would be hilarious if he found his way back to us and somehow managed to become a solid bench piece.

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    2. Maybe we could get him back like a lucky “chip” and trade him again …… just a thought!

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  10. Lehigh Valley has announced their “Break Camp Roster”. Essentially this is the first and largest wave of players assigned to the IronPigs. It includes 26 players: 15 pitchers, 3 catchers, 4 infielders, and 4 outfielders. Bold indicates a player on the 40-man roster. This is certainly subject change before opening day.

    Pitchers (15): Génesis Cabrera, Jean Cabrera, Ryan Cusick, Tucker Davidson, Connor Gillispie, Jonathan Hernández, Nolan Hoffman, Seth Johnson, Griff McGarry, Alan Rangel, Trevor Richards, Chase Shugart, Lou Trivino, Andrew Walling, Bryse Wilson

    Catchers (3): Paul McIntosh, René Pinto, Caleb Ricketts

    Infielders (4): Christian Cairo, Carter Kieboom, Robert Moore, Liover Peguero,

    Outfielders (4): Bryan De La Cruz, Cade Fergus, Pedro León, Felix Reyes

    One notable addition is likely to be CF Oscar Mercado who was recently signed after his release from another organization. Mercado spent last season with the IronPigs and will help fill the void left by Johan Rojas’ suspension.

    One concern for the organization is that only 2 position players are on the 40-man roster OF Pedro Leon and recently selected and optioned Christian Cairo. Triple A is permitted to have as many as 38 players on a roster. There are likely to be a few more additions.

    One notable missing player is Dante Nori. I don’t know where the Phillies are planning to assign Nori, but I’ve noticed that he has only been used as a DH since returning from the WBC. I can’t say if that is by design or necessity.

    Felix Reyes is listed as an outfielder after playing 1B this spring. Interesting. Garrett Stubbs was designated Wednesday. Should he pass through waivers (unlikely with the state of backup catching in the majors, IMO) he can re-sign with the Phillies after reaching free agency which would undoubtedly cause some trickle down among the catchers. Whether you like him or not, his absence leaves a huge void in our catching depth. His knowledge of the pitching staff and involvement in game day planning would be missed.

    In addition to 3 Phillies pitchers being added to the 15-day IL, 6 minor league pitchers have been added to the 60-day IL. As near as I can recall, 3 finished last season rehabbing from TJ, one had TJ recently, one experienced some difficulties coming back from TJ last season either during rehab or after being activated, and one I don’t have any recollection is his difficulty is new or a carry-over from last season.

    The other 3 affiliates will break camp today, I believe and their opening day rosters will be announced by the affiliates soon after.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. RHP Jean Cabrera is one. Rincones and Anthony when/if assigned. Aidan Miller when he is approved to play. And Dante Nori if the Phillies for an aggressive assignment which IMO seems unlikely. RHP Yoniel Curet has posted some really nice numbers through his minor league career until an 8-game (7 start) callup to Triple A Durham last season. We traded Tommy McCollum to Tampa for him. We have a solid history of fleecing Tampa so maybe … a little tongue in cheek there. Moises Chace has done 2 stints at Double-A. He may be primed for a jump to Lehigh Valley early in the season.

        Lehigh Valley’s pitching staff is a little old. In fact, Cabrera, Curet, Andrew Walling, and Chace if he were to join the team are the only pitchers younger than 26.

        Among position players, Christian Cairo may bear some watching. He’s 24 and the Phillies thought enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster. He is a utility type who has logged innings at 2B, SS, 3B, and the outfield during his career. This is probably a stretch but maybe he could be a current internal heir apparent to Sosa who just turned 30 and reaches free agency after this season. With an impending lockout next season, who knows?

        Liked by 1 person

    1. I agree Stubbs to me has more value than McIntosh or Pinto in LHV. I would have even kept him as a 26 man/player coach over Moore.

      Moore apparently wanted his release if he didn’t make the 26 man which i would have gladly granted.

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  11. Changes at the park:

     The Phillies sold the naming rights to the old “Harry The K’s” in left field — named for the legendary television announcer Harry Kalas who passed more than 15 years ago. It’s from henceforth going to be the Ghost Energy Deck.

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    1. I’m ok with it. Harry will always have his place in our hearts. He has the statue and the broadcast booth is named after him and we’ll always sing high hopes in his honor…

      Per Middleton the Ghost naming rights will be enough to pay for another players salary and the amount that was being paid to Harry’s widow for the naming was $1,000 a year and a percentage of sales.

      Which according to John they were not saving much by ending that relationship not enough anyway to fund another player.

      Like it or not its a business and has to be run accordingly.

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    1. With his contact ability and speed, I’m thinking that he can get a slash of .290/.340/.410 slash for his rookie year. Even if the HRs are not there yet, the doubles and triples should be. So I’m betting on at least 2 WAR, but cautiously optimistic about 3 WAR if can get more extra base hits.

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          1. Strikeout rate will determine if he hits .290 or better imo.

            A perfect comp for Justin is Chandler Simpson. Here was his line last year:

            • batting line: .295/.326/.345
            • K% / BB%: 9.8% / 4.5%
            • BABIP: .327
            • Ave EV: 84.3
            • Hard hit %: 17%
            • Ground ball %: 59.4%

            Here is what is different between the two:

            • Justin has had a higher K% and BB% throughout the minors
            • Justin has has had a higher Ave EV and hard hit % throughout the minors

            But they are similarly fast and both have a high ground ball rate. I personally think .290 BA is too high, but I think that he will have a .340+ OB% which is most important. I think that he will steal 30-40 bases. I actually think Justin is the perfect 9 hole hitter. far better than we have had out of the 9 hole in a long time.

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    2. I’ve long been bullish on him as an MLB player. I was also for another Crawford too.

      The question is always what caliber of MLB player will he be and you just never know until you give them the job and let them be to establish that.

      I think for most prospects that conquer the levels of MiLB and then fail in the MLB it comes down to confidence

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    3. Yes, very good, fair article. Did you see him bunt for a base hit when he caught a third baseman playing too deep earlier this week? How about the triple against Skubal? Gameday listed it as a groundball with a 7-degree launch angle. Later in the inning, Harper drove him in with a line drive to CF at a 10-degree launch angle. I wondered if 3 degrees was the difference between a groundball and a line drive. Just kidding, but he hit the heck out of it and caught the RF in a shift toward CF.

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      1. Yes, I saw both and both made a similar impression on me. That is how you get high batting average. stealing base hits with infield choppers or bunts. but also being able to hit 106 ext velo off Skrubal. impressive.

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        1. If Crawford stays in the 9th hole…cannot see opposing pitchers pithing around him to get to the top of the lineup….so he should see his fair shar of FBs. And since he is good at contact, the faster they come in, the faster and higher velo they may go out.

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          1. Exactly, not only do they not want to walk him because then they get to the top of our lineup, he also isn’t a threat to hit homers. So they will likely say, ok, Justin, here is my fastball, beat me.

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  12. By the way, Orion Kerkering opened for the minor league game at the Complex yesterday. He pitched ahead, got 2 groundouts and a strikeout during his 10-pitch effort. He consistently attacked the lower strike zone on his glove side. Didn’t get any velo but he looked to be in command.

    Liked by 4 people

  13. Season prediction:

    Either 91 wins, as I think the league over has better parity

    Or

    I’m wrong, they steam roll the league for 96 wins, and let off the gas to rest players for the playoffs at the end of the season.

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  14. So Paul Skenes threw 37 pitches in the first inning, only got 2 outs and now he’s out of the game. I’m assuming that the next pitcher, Yohan Ramirez, is the long man and will have to eat innings.

    This is the reason why team don’t use 6 man rotations for any significant length of time. You figure that that the Pirates will have to use at least 3-4 bullpen guys to eat up the remaining 8 innings.

    Not the start you wanted to see if you’re a Pirates fan…

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    1. Skenes wasn’t sharp with his command but Cruz in CF was a complete mess that cost him 3 runs and got him removed from the game due to the high pitch count.

      He froze on a flyball that landed behind him for a bases-loaded triple and then lost ball in the sun on the next batter. Inning should have ended 2-2.

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  15. Planes overhead. Waiting for opener. Nothing better than a johns water ice and soft pretzel on opening day

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    1. Yeah, I’ve thought about the Realmuto thing a bunch and let’s start out by saying that they paid him too much for too long – it was an over-market contract. However, I believe we need to think about Realmuto in a different way than we used to think about him (he’s nowhere near the Best Catcher in Baseball now). If he can be close to average offensively and still elite defensively, it’s not the worst contract in the world and then there’s the part that the SABR people have not quantified to my knowledge. What if his game calling and pre-game pitcher prep provides the team with a huge advantage? I don’t think there is any metric quantifying that, but, to some degree it has to be a real thing. And let’s say that, due to the game-calling and detailed pre-game pre, the team gives up, on average 1-2 few hits per 9 innings (not a crazy thought), is he worth the contract then? I’d say there’s a good chance that he is. And, for whatever it’s worth, I’m pretty sure Topper would say that he does provide that type of value – and he might be right.

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      1. And, by the way, if you said that due to his game calling/prep the team gave up one fewer hit over every two games – over the course of the season, the value of that (65 hits for 130 games caught) would be enormous – maybe another 2-3 WAR. Just saying.

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        1. I want JT to succeed as much as the next guy, but if JT is hovering around a .680-.700 OPS, that would override any perceived value he’s bringing to the table.

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          1. Yeah, maybe. Last year, he had .700 OPS and 2.5 WAR – that’s worth roughly $15 m without taking into account his value in calling a game (again, something I think is underrated and perhaps greatly underrated) – but can he do similar WAR numbers for the next 3 years? The history of catching shows that this is unlikely. No doubt they overpaid for him.

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        1. The Bohm news is very sad. Having your parents siphon your assets (if what he is saying is true) is a complete nightmare. Something very similar happened to Ryan Howard. If they are lucky, one day they can have something approaching a relationship again, but most likely, the split can probably never be repaired. I feel horrible for him.

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  16. I’ll take the W but man Rob still doesn’t have a feel for his BP. 5 Runs going into the 9th feels like a safe space to throw a guy like Bacchus but its not. With the off day I would have gone anyone but him.

    Just about LOL

    And hopefully someone tells Pop he’s not allowed to challenge. JT and Marchan had 2 of the best challenge rates during ST. Leave it to them.

    Wish me luck tomorrow we all know Nola is capable of 3-4 great innings then whammo…

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    1. That was a defensible challenge by Pop. It would have been a strike 3 to end the inning (I believe) and pitched missed by one-tenth of an inch.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Ok that’s fair I just think that pitchers might have the lowest rate of success on challenges than our catchers do.

        Either way it has added another layer of interest for me.

        MLB Network covered quite extensively the ABS around opening day and there were some really cool reversals.

        What was also interesting was that in ST you saw challenges quite liberally in the first few innings. Yesterday that wasn’t the case.

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    2. If you can’t throw a pitcher out there to hold a 5 run lead, then what’s he out there for? I don’t think he’s the long man but even long men are not supposed to give up runs quickly. Pretty sure he has options left but so luckily this didn;t come back to hurt the Phillies.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. He had a bad outing, okay? Let’s wait until we call to send him down to the minors or release him. He had a good ST and it’s good to have a side-armer on the staff if he can figure it out.

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        1. This is more about responding to dmar. I had no issue sending Backhus out there with a 5 run lead. And I’m not sending down Backhus after 1 bad outing. I’m just putting it out there that he has options, that’s it.

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          1. I don’t disagree with you Catch what I am saying is that what have we been most critical of Thomson for over his tenure?

            For me on opening day it seemed a questionable spot to send Bacchus out for his 1st appearance in Philly.

            I don’t care what anyone tries to tell me but the 9th Inning is different whether it be 5 runs or 2 runs.

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  17. Stark today with a nice piece on the crazy amount of speed the Phillies now have at batter 9 and leadoff. It had already occurred to me that, if Crawford gets on base at any kind of decent rate, Turner will see a lot of fastballs coming from distracted pitchers. If….

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    1. it’s an interesting element to the offense for sure. It could easily gain another gear, if Aiden Miller can get his back cleared up. He’s a hellva lot faster than Bohm, likely an upgrade over whoever he may eventually send to the bench

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  18. Now it is really turning into a real drama scene:

    The Phillies have paid Eileen Kalas $20,000 a year to use her husband’s likeness, the Inquirer story reported, including for this season despite the sign removal but informed her they wouldn’t be paying her in 2027 although the story said they plan on still honoring Harry by playing a video of him signing “High Hopes” on the Phanavision. Eileen told the outlet that the Phillies can’t play the video of him singing the song if she isn’t paid.

    Here’s what she told The Inquirer:

    “Taking down that sign takes away everything he did for the city. I think they betrayed Harry. It’s not about me. It’s about what they’re doing to Harry. I think they betrayed him for everything he did for them.”

    …….. the Phillies declined to comment.

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      1. I just remember , Romus your favorite player , that y told me about Hertz Martin wore that number

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  19. Looking at the box score yesterday for Lehigh and saw that Caleb Ricketts was playing 1B. I thought that was unusual and it turns out that Keaton Anthony broke his foot earlier this month. So Anthony, Miller, Rincones Jr. are all hurt for Lehigh.

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  20. Looks like Degrom was scratched from today’s start due to a stiff neck?

    Bro… get off the cell phone!

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    1. The Rangers knew what they were getting into giving a 34 year old deGrom 5/185 with his injury history. So either they didn’t care or they were delusional about deGrom staying healthy.

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  21. Wheeler first inning

    19 pitches. 13 strikes

    1,hit. 1 BB. 3 Ks

    used all his pitches. 4 seam. Splitter. Curveball. Sweeper

    FB sitting 93-94 mph.

    Liked by 1 person

  22. Okay, dreams of 162-0 collapsed. But hopes are still alive to make the playoffs and lose the opening series.

    On a more serious note, this was a great day for the Phillies thanks to Zach Wheeler.

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    1. Happy to see Wheeler throw, but he topped out a 94 and sat 92-93. Hopefully just building up arm strength. But that is a very different pitching profile.

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      1. Even without injury, at a similar point in spring training during prior years, Wheeler was sitting at about the same velocity he is showing now. While you’re right that, if he ends up topping out at 93-94, we have a different pitcher on our hands, there’s every reason to be optimistic that he will be regularly able to reach 95-97 MPH again. It’s still extremely early in his build-up process and they said he has lost ten pounds over the last year and is physically building himself and I doubt at this moment he is primarily keyed into velocity. Also, if he turns out to be a 2 or even a 3 rather than an ace, well, I think I could live with that.

        Liked by 1 person

          1. I looked at his pitch velocities previous years and he does typically start slower to begin the year. Might be why March/April are his worst months by ERA for his career.

            So we can at least cautiously optimistic.

            Liked by 1 person

    1. Yup, you can hear how conditioned Kruk was to thinking that was going to fall for a hit. Then his surprise that the ball could be caught from there. That’s how I interpreted it.

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