2025-26 Offseason Roster and Payroll Information and Phillies Discussion (10/21/2025)

Other Stuff

I usually hold off on dropping this article, but another too early Phillies’ exit from the playoffs has generated a lot of offseason talk earlier than usual.

I started prepping this back in August.  It would be best to hold off publishing until after the world series, but I can publish now and update as necessary.

This can serve as our Phillies Discussion.

Summary of Expenses

  • Sunk Costs:     $       25,666,667   (includes 14 40-man spots and Bader’s buyout)
  • Guarantees:    $    178,103,771   (9 contracts/9 players)
  • Arbitration:     $       45,625,000   (9 on active roster)
  • Pre-Arb:            $         2,340,000   (if 3 at league minimum)
  • Options:            Bader’s declined, Alvarado’s exercised and added to guarantees
  • Total Costs:     $    251,735,438   (at least 4 on the 40-man/6 on the active rosters)
  • Amount Over the 1st CBT threshold of $244M … $7,735,438
  • Amount Under the 2nd CBT threshold of $264M … $12,264,562
  • Amount Under the 3rd CBT threshold of $284M … $32,264,562
  • Amount Under the 4th CBT threshold of $304M … $52,264,562

Sunk Costs are costs other than major league salaries that count toward the calculation of a team’s competitive balance tax threshold.  The estimated minor league salaries represent the estimate for minor league players on the 40-man roster and evaporate as those salaries become fixed.

  • First sunk cost is for player benefits – $18,000,000.
  • Second sunk cost is the estimated salary for the minor league players – $3,000,000.
  • Third sunk cost is the “zero-to-three-year” bonus pool – $1,666,667.
  • Fourth sunk cost is Harrison Bader’s buyout – $3,000,000.

Total sunk costs $25,666,667.

Guaranteed Contracts are contracts that are guaranteed for the 2026 season, and in some cases beyond.  The first figure is the player’s total contract followed by the length of the contract, then the salary for this season, and finally the salary computed toward the competitive balance tax threshold (AAV).

  1. Zack Wheeler ($126M (25-27)). $42,000,000/$42,000,000.
  2. Trea Turner ($300M (23-33)). $27,272,727/$27,272,727.
  3. Bryce Harper ($330M (19-31)). $27,538,462/$25,384,615.
  4. Aaron Nola ($172M (24-30)).  $24,571,429/$24,571,429.
  5. Nick Castellanos ($100M (22-26)).  $20,000,000/$20,000,000.
  6. Taijuan Walker ($72M (23-26)). $18,000,000/$18,000,000.
  7. Matt Strahm ($7.5M (26)).  $7,500,000/$7,000,000 – option vested/physical passed.
  8. Christopher Sanchez ($22.5M (25-28+opts)). $3,500,000/$5,625,000.
  9. Jose Alvarado ($9M (26)).  $9,000,000/$7,750,000 – option exercised.

Total salary of $179,382,618 but only $178,103,771 counts against the CBT threshold.

Arbitration Eligible Player Salaries are ESTIMATES of the player’s salary for the 2026 season.  While teams and players may come to agreement before the actual arbitration hearing, we may not know the actual salaries of all players until mid-February.  If a team decides to not tender a salary offer to a player, that player becomes a free agent.  Estimates are from MLBTR.

  1. Jesus Luzardo – estimate is $10.4M.
  2. Alec Bohm – estimate is $10.3M.
  3. Jhoan Duran – estimate is $7.6M.
  4. Bryson Stott – estimate is $5.8M.
  5. Brandon Marsh – estimate is $4.5M.
  6. Edmundo Sosa – estimate is $3.9M.
  7. Tanner Banks – estimate is $1.2M.
  8. Rafael Marchan – estimate is $1.0M.
  9. Garrett Stubbs – estimate $925K

Current commitment at these nine estimates comes to $45,625,000 toward the threshold.

Pre-Arbitration Players are cost-controlled players whose salaries were negotiated by the MLB and the MLBPA and defined in the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).

The minimum salary in 2026 is $780,000.

Some of the remaining spots on the active roster will be filled from within the organization with affordable, cost-controlled, pre-arbitration players.  This group includes 13 players currently on the 40-man roster – Orion Kerkering, Jean Cabrera, Moisés Chace, Seth Johnson, Max Lazar, Michael Mercado, Alan Rangel, Daniel Robert, Johan Rojas, Weston Wilson, Nolan Hoffman, Otto Kemp, Rafael Lantigua.

Come December, some of the above pre-arb players may not be on the 40-man roster, and a few new names may be as the Phillies opt to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft.  This will include – Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter, and possibly players like Gabriel Rincones, Daniel Harper, Alex McFarlane, among others.

Kerkering is practically a lock for the bullpen.  Wilson, and Kemp could help fill out the bench.

Options include player options, club options, and mutual options.  Player and club options only require that the player or club exercise the option.  Mutual options require that both teams accept the conditions included in the option in the current negotiated contract.

Matt Strahm has a club option that provided terms that would trigger the option if he reached 60 innings pitched and passed a physical at the end of the Phillies’ season.  He reached the 60 innings and passed his physical, so his option became guaranteed.

Harrison Bader has terms that would increase his buyout in the event that the team decided not to exercise their option.  His buyout was $1.5M.  It increased by $200K when he reached 400, 425, and 450 plate appearances and $450K when he reached 475 and 500 plate appearances.  He increased his buyout by $1.5M.  The Phillies inherited this circumstance when they traded for Bader.

  1. Jose Alvarado – Club option for $9.0M with a $500K buyout.
  2. Harrison Bader – Mutual option for $10.0M with $3.0M buyout.

There’s no guarantee that the Phillies exercise Alvarado’s option or that both the Phillies and Bader exercise their options regarding his contract.  If both remain Phillies that would be a payroll outlay of $19,000,000.  However, the Phillies could use the leverage of Alvarado’s suspension to negotiate a cheaper contract, and Bader could leverage his good season and potential free agency into a longer, more profitable deal with the Phillies or some other team.

Update 11/5: Harrison Bader elected free agency, and the Phillies exercised their option on Jose Alvarado.

MLB Free Agents

The Phillies have 9 free agents among the players on their 40-man roster – C JT Realmuto, DH Kyle Schwarber, LF Max Kepler, LHP Ranger Suarez, RHP Jordan Romano, RHP David Robertson, RHP Walker Buehler, LHP Tim Mayza, and RHP Lou Trivino.

Seven were on their Division Series playoff roster – LHP Mayza, LHP Suarez, RHP Buehler, RHP Robertson, C Realmuto, OF Kepler, DH Schwarber.

Romano and Trivino did not make it on the playoff roster but were on the 40-man roster to end the season.

Update 11/2: All 9 have elected free agency as well as Harrison Bader on 11/4 and Rafael Lantigua on 11/6 after being outrighted.

Qualifying Offers

The qualifying offer this offseason will be $22.025M.  The Phillies legitimate candidates to receive a QO should include C JT Realmuto, DH Kyle Schwarber, LHP Ranger Suarez and no one else.  (Oh wait.  First update: JT received a QO in November 2020 which he rejected.  He can’t be QO-ed again.)

Until the Phillies extend QOs, this will probably be one of the hottest early offseason discussions.  I would not offer a QO to Realmuto.  He is not a $20M a year catcher anymore.  The Phillies don’t have any internal options other than Marchan and Stubbs.  Still, I wouldn’t over commit dollars to Realmuto with a QO or a multi-year deal.  Let him test free agency and offer a competitive deal if the price and years are right.

Extend a QO to Schwarber so that if he signs elsewhere, at least they will get draft pick compensation.  IMHO, I think there is a good chance that he signs with somebody else.  A QO is a hedge in case he does.

A QO to Suarez is a different type of hedge.  As important as starting pitching is, how comfortable are you with the Phillies rotation going into next season?  Wheeler and Painter are question marks regarding if and when they will be available and how effective they will be when they are.  Will Nola rebound or continue down his current performance path?  Will Luzardo continue to bounce between good and not-so-good performances?  Do we want a rotation that might have to rely on Walker?  (None of this just trade him talk.  Even with reduced scouting staffs, other teams know how effective he is or isn’t.)  That leaves Sanchez.  Do we want to rely on him having to pitch as well or better than this season?  A QO to Suarez provides a top shelf pitcher for the rotation who could be traded if all other options pan out.

Of course, offering a QO doesn’t guarantee that it will be accepted.  Having a QO attached to a player has reduced that player’s market in previous years.  In addition to getting compensation when the player signs with another team, it also might depress the market enough for the Phillies to sign a guy to a shorter deal, maybe even a one-year deal.

Schwarber and Suarez were extended QOs as expected.

Remaining Active Roster and Depth Options Before the Offseason Arrives

  1. SP Zack Wheeler
  2. SP Christopher Sanchez
  3. SP Jesus Luzardo
  4. SP Aaron Nola
  5. SP Taijuan Walker
  6. CL Jhoan Duran
  7. RP Jose Alvarado
  8. RP Matt Strahm
  9. RP Orion Kerkering
  10. RP Tanner Banks
  11. RP
  12. RP
  13. RP
  14. C Rafael Marchan
  15. 1B Bryce Harper
  16. 2B Bryson Stott
  17. SS Trea Turner
  18. 3B Alec Bohm
  19. LF Brandon Marsh
  20. CF
  21. RF Nick Castellanos
  22. DH
  23. Bench INF Edmundo Sosa
  24. Bench INF/OF Otto Kemp
  25. Bench INF/OF Westin Wilson
  26. Bench C Garrett Stubbs
    1. Since spring training the Phillies have been trying to extend Schwarber and Realmuto.  Depending on how much of a discount Realmuto gives, the combined cost could approach $50M.  Schwarber will likely not be giving a discount.  If he reaches free agency, it’s possible he signs elsewhere, and the Phillies will be stuck trying to replace his offense.  The Phillies have 3 prospects who could be starting catchers, but none at the upper levels of the organization who could step in next season.  Unless there is an attractive free agent catcher on the market this offseason, the Phillies may see Realmuto as the best short-term option.
    2. If they DO sign both Realmuto and Schwarber, that $50M drives their expenses up over $300M with a few spots to fill mostly relievers.  But they could certainly use upgrades to the rotation, outfield, and bench.
  27. Jean Cabrera
  28. Moisés Chace
  29. Nelson Hoffman
  30. Seth Johnson
  31. Max Lazar
  32. Michael Mercado
  33. Alan Rangel
  34. Daniel Robert
  35. Johan Rojas
  36. TBD
  37. TBD
  38. TBD
  39. TBD
  40. TBD

Painter and Crawford will certainly be added to the 40-man roster.  Anyone else is speculation at this time.  There are also one or two who may be DFA-ed from the 40-man roster, Lantigua for example.  (As I surmised, Lantigua was outrighted and elected free agency.)

Minor League Free Agents

The Phillies have already signed a few of their impending free agents RHP Gabriel Barbosa (REA), RHP Andrew Bechtold (LHV), and SS Jose Colmenares (JER).  (Additionally, as of 10/21, 4 players – LHP Christhian Tortosa (REA), LHP Erubiel Armenta (JER), INF Alex Binelas (REA), and INF Jose Rodriguez (REA) – have also signed minor league free agent contracts with the Phillies.  As of 10/31, Erick Brito has been re-signed.)

A couple players have already declared free agency RHP Devin Sweet LHV and 2B Donovan Walton LHV.

(10/21, although C Luis Caicuto signed his first UPC in July 2019 but wasn’t assigned to a team until 2021, after the lost 2020 COVID season.  It’s not likely that he is a free agent this year.  I’m removing him from the free agent list.)

The following 18 players can be free agents during the coming weeks.  As far as I can tell they have all satisfied their first UPC.

  • RHP (8): Phil Bickford (LHV), Eiberson Castellano (REA), Matt Manning (REA), Gunner Mayer (REA), Adonis Medina (LHV), Gabe Mosser, (LHV), Lucas Sims, (LHV), Jacob Waguespack, (LHV).
  • LHP:
  • C (2): Josh Breaux, (LHV), Payton Henry, (LHV).
  • INF (4): Christian Arroyo, (LHV), Rodolfo Castro, (LHV), Nick Dunn, (REA), Luis Verdugo, (LHV).
  • OF (4): Brewer Hicklen, (LHV), Marcus Lee Sang, (REA), Oscar Mercado (LHV), Leandro Pineda, (REA).

Rule 5 Eligible Players

This year 21 new players reached Rule 5 eligibility.  They are:

  • RHP: Jack Dallas, Daniel Harper, Nathan Karaffa, Alex McFarlane, Micah Ottenbreit, Andrew Painter, Jose Pena, Danyony Pulido, Alex Rao, Paxton Thompson
  • LHP: Braden Fausnaught, Andrew Walling, Danny Wilkinson
  • C: Luis Caicuto, Jordan Dissin, Caleb Ricketts
  • INF:  Robert Moore
  • OF Nick Biddison, Cade Fergus, Raylin Heredia, Gabriel Rincones

And these 22 players maintain their Rule 5 eligibility from last year:

  • RHP: Andrew Baker, Gabriel Barbosa, Andrew Bechtold, Ryan Cusick, Jaydenn Estanista, Estibenzon Jimenez, Tommy McCollum, Griff McGarry, Christian McGowan, John McMillon, Saul Teran, Giussepe Velasquez
  • LHP: Tristan Garnett, Christhian Tortosa, Erubiel Armenta
  • C: Paul McIntosh, Carson Taylor
  • INF: Jose Colmenares, Alex Binelas, Jose Rodriguez, Erick Brito
  • OF: Felix Reyes

Lehigh Valley has 31 players on its published roster on their website.  The Phillies will be able to protect up to 38 players from the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.  The Phillies don’t publish their transactions prior to the draft so we never know for sure who or how many they are protecting.  But let’s play with the possibilities here.

  • Of the 31 current IronPigs, 12 are minor league free agents – Bickford, Medina, Mosser, Sims, Waguespack, Breaux, Henry, Arroyo, Castro, Verdugo, Hicklen, and Oscar Mercado.
  • Of the remaining 19 IronPigs, 5 are not Rule 5 eligible and can be moved off the roster for the Rule 5 draft if necessary – Neunborn, Escolona, Miller, Anthony, and Crawford.
  • The remaining 14 IronPigs are Rule 5 eligible – Bechtold and Brito who have signed 2026 contracts; first time eligibles Harper, Painter, Walling, Fergus, and Rincones; and repeat eligibles Cusick, Garnett, McCollum, McGarry, McIntosh, Taylor, and Reyes.
  • The 8 signed minor league free agents are also eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Sometimes a player with a contract is passed over during the Rule 5 draft.  But the Phillies selected CF Jake Cave during the 2022 Rule 5 draft even though he had a contract.  I don’t know if any of our eight guys would command that kind of interest.  Maybe Armenta?
  • So, that clears 25 possible spots on the IronPigs roster for the 24 remaining players who are still Rule 5 eligible.
  • However, there is still some more wiggle room.
    • Eight of the Rule 5 eligible players finished the season on the 60-day IL or the full season IL – pitchers Karaffa, Ottenbreit, Rao, Fausnaught, and McGowan, catchers Taylor and Caicuto, and OF Lee Sang.  Teams might be hesitant to select a player, especially a pitcher, who was on the IL for possible arm injury.
    • Four of the Rule 5 eligible players are on rosters at the lower minors – Caicuto at Jersey Shore who also finished the season on the 60-day IL, Armenta a pitcher at Jersey Shore, Colmenares an infielder at Jersey Shore, Velasquez a pitcher at Clearwater, and Hernandez an infielder in the DSL.

So, the Phillies can maybe expose a half dozen or more players who might not draw interest to open additional spots they can fill during the Rule 5 draft.

Remember this is all just speculative.  We’ll see in December how many players the Phillies select and how many if any of our players get selected.

Major League Free Agency

I have provided the attached lists of free agents.  They are current as of September 19th.  I’ll try and keep it up to date as more players declare.

With several free agents of their own, the Phillies will surely replenish their roster with free agents, either their own or others.  That’s not to say they will necessarily be in on the big ticket free agents.  But I won’t rule it out.

2025-26 Free Agent Position Players (updated 11/6/2025)

2025-26 Free Agent Pitchers (updated 11/6/2025)

These files as well as this article will be posted on the menu above – Agreements, Rules, Rosters, etc.

Recent Transactions

10/10/2025 – 2B Donovan Walton elected free agency
10/10/2025 – RHP Devin Sweet elected free agency
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Lou Trivino
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Moisés Chace
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Seth Johnson
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated 2B Rafael Lantigua
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Jean Cabrera
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Nolan Hoffman
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated C Garrett Stubbs
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Michael Mercado
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Max Lazar
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Alan Rangel
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated LHP José Alvarado
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Jordan Romano
10/10/2025 – Phillies activated CF Johan Rojas
10/10/2025 – DSL Phillies White released 2B Fernando Hernandez
10/06/2025 – CF Dylan Campbell assigned to Surprise Saguaros
10/06/2025 – SS Bryan Rincon assigned to Surprise Saguaros
10/04/2025 – LHP José Alvarado roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Jean Cabrera roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Moisés Chace roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Nolan Hoffman roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Seth Johnson roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Max Lazar roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Michael Mercado roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Alan Rangel roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Jordan Romano roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Lou Trivino roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – C Garrett Stubbs roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – 2B Rafael Lantigua roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – CF Johan Rojas roster status changed by Phillies
9/29/2025 – Reading activated RHP Estibenzon Jimenez from the Development List
9/29/2025 – Reading activated RHP Charles King from the Development List
9/29/2025 – Reading activated C Lou Albrecht from the Development List
9/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Andrew Painter from the Development List
9/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated C Yhoan Escalona from the Develpopment List
9/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Mitch Neunborn from the Development List
9/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Gabe Mosser from the Development List
9/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Gabe Mosser
9/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Mitch Neunborn
9/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Andrew Painter
9/28/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated C Yhoan Escalona
9/26/2025 – Phillies sent 2B Donovan Walton outright to Lehigh Valley
9/26/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Adonis Medina from the 7-day IL
9/26/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated OF Justin Crawford from the 7-day IL
9/26/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated OF Keaton Anthony from the 7-day IL
9/19/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated LHP Tristan Garnett from the Development List
9/16-30/2025 – Phillies Signed RHP Gabriel Barbosa (AA)
9/10/2025 – RHP Daniel Harper assigned to Surprise Saguaros
9/10/2025 – RHP Tommy McCollum assigned to Surprise Saguaros
9/10/2025 – RHP Eiberson Castellano assigned to Surprise Saguaros
9/10/2025 – RHP Jack Dallas assigned to Surprise Saguaros
9/10/2025 – RHP Jaydenn Estanista assigned to Surprise Saguaros
9/10/2025 – OF Dante Nori assigned to Surprise Saguaros

Important Dates –  These are baseball’s important dates for the upcoming year up to but not including Spring Training.  Bold text is used for the dates I’m pretty certain are accurate.  Italics (and a date range) are used for those which I don’t have solid dates.

I will leave a link for this portion separate from the rest of this article on the menu above – Agreements, Rules, Rosters, etc.  I will update as I become aware of more and actual dates.

  • October 6, 2025: Opening Night for the Arizona Fall League (AFL)
  • October 15, 2025: Start of the Mexican Pacific League (LMP)
  • October 15, 2025: Start of the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League (LVBP)
  • October 15, 2025: Start of the Dominican Professional Baseball League (LIDOM)
  • October 12-20, 2025: ALCS
  • October 13-21, 2025: NLCS
  • October 15, 2025: Article XX(D) Free Agency period
    • Any Player who has at least 3 years of Major League service, or who qualified as a “Super Two” Player as of the conclusion of the prior championship season, and whose contract is assigned outright to a Minor League club may elect, in lieu of accepting such assignment, to become a free agent.
    • In the event that such a Player with at least 3 years of Major League service does not elect free agency in lieu of accepting such assignment, he may elect free agency during the period between
      • (i) the end of the then current Major League season and
      • (ii) the next following October 15, or 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time on the second day after the date the Player’s Club plays in its final post-season game that season (whichever occurs later) (the “Election Period”), unless such Player is returned to a Major League roster prior to making such election.
      • Any Player who accepts an outright assignment as a “Super Two” Player will not retain a right to elect free agency following the season.
  • October 24-November 1, 2025: World Series
  • November 1, 2025: Deadline for the 2025 International Player Registration Period
  • November 1 – December 5, 2025 – Window for Nippon Professional Baseball clubs to post players available to sign with MLB clubs.
  • AFTER the WORLD SERIES
    • November 2, 2025, 9:00 AM, First Day After the World Series:
      • Eligible XX(B) players become free agents (start of the quiet period)
        • ARTICLE XX(B) Free Agency – Following the completion of the term of his Uniform Player’s Contract, any Player with 6 or more years of Major League service who has not executed a contract for the next succeeding season shall become a free agent.
    • November 3, 2025, Second Day After the World Series: Players may be traded between Major League Clubs
    • November 5, 2025, Fourth Day After the World Series: Last date to request waivers on draft-excluded players until next spring
    • November 6, 2025, Fifth Day After the World Series: Last date to outright potential Minor League free agent without Major League contract, if applicable
      • Last date for former Club to tender qualifying offer to XX(B) free agent players, if applicable
      • Domestic Minor League Player Limit increases to 175 players
      • Minor League players become free agents at 5:00 p.m. ET, if applicable
      • End of Quiet period, XX(B) free agents may sign with any Club
      • All players on the 60-day Injured List (Major and Minor) and Full-Season Injured Lists must be reinstated
      • Deadline for clubs and players to exercise or decline contract options for the 2026 season.
  • November 6, 2025: Start of the Roberto Clemente Professional Baseball League (LBPRC, Puerto Rico)
  • November 8, 2025: AFL Fall-Stars Home run Derby
    • November 9, 2025: AFL Fall-Stars Game
    • November 13, 2025: AFL Quarterfinals (3 v 6, 4 v5)
    • November 14, 2025: AFL Semifinals (1 v 4/5, 2 v 3/6)
    • November 15, 2025: AFL Championship
  • November 10-13, 2025: GM Meetings, Las Vegas NV
  • November 13, 2025: Start of the Australian Baseball League (ABL)
  • November 18, 2025: Deadline for XX(B) free agent players to accept or decline qualifying offer from former Club by 4:00 p.m. ET. 
  • November 15-19, 2025: Last date to ask Outright Waivers on an injured player, if applicable
  • November 18-20, 2025: Quarterly owners’ meetings in New York
  • November 18, 2025: Rule 5 Protection Deadline – Reserve lists for all Major and Minor League levels filed by 6:00 p.m. ET (Transactions MUST be entered by 5:30 p.m. ET)
  • November 21, 2025 (8:00 p.m. ET): Non-Tender Deadline – Final day for clubs to tender/non-tender contracts to unsigned players on the Major League Reserve List (40-man roster) who have less than 6 years of service time including arbitration eligible players.  Non-tenders become free agents.
  • November 23, 2025: End of First Half, Mexican Pacific League (LMP)
  • Early December: Competitive balance draft picks assigned
  • December 1, 2025: Release of the 2025 International Registered Players List
  • December 4-8, 2025: Last date to request Outright Waivers to assign player prior to Rule 5 Draft
  • December 7-11, 2025: Baseball Winter Meetings, Orlando Florida
  • December 9, 2025: MLB Draft Lottery
  • December 10, 2025: Major League Rule 5 Draft – Winter Meetings, Orlando Florida
  • December 15, 2025 (5:00 p.m. ET): International signing period closes
  • December 23, 2025: Completion of the LIDOM regular season
  • December 30, 2025: End of Second Half, Mexican Pacific League (LMP)
  • January 3, 2026: Completion of the LBPRC regular season
  • January 4, 2026: LBPRC wild card game (if necessary)
  • January 6-14, 2026: LBPRC Semifinals (best of seven)
  • January 9, 2026: Exchange of salary arbitration figures
  • January 11-15, 2026: Period during which arbitration hearing scheduled is set
  • January 15, 2026 (9:00 a.m. ET): Opening of the 2026 signing period for international amateurs
  • January 16-29, 2026: Start of the LBPRC Championship Series (best of nine)
  • January 18, 2026: End of the ABL regular season
  • January 23-25, 2026: ABL Championship Series
  • January 26-February 20, 2026: Period during which arbitration hearings will be held
  • February 1-7, 2026; Caribbean Series in Venezuela – participants will be Venezuela, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico. Cuba and Japan have been extended invitations. Additional teams may come from South Korea and Italy to complete the desired 8-team format. Recent participants Colombia, Nicaragua, Panama, and Curaçao have not been invited, so far.
    • February 1-5, 2026: Caribbean Series – Opening Round Robin Games
    • February 6, 2026: Caribbean Series – Semifinals
    • February 7, 2026: Caribbean Series – Championship Game
  • Mid-February: Spring Training begins
  • March 5-17, 2026: World Baseball Classic
    • March 6, 2026 (8:00 p.m. ET): Team USA @ Brazil; Daikin Park in Houston, TX
    • March 7, 2026 (8:00 p.m. ET): Team USA v. Great Britain; Daikin Park in Houston, TX
    • March 9, 2026 (8:00 p.m. ET): Team USA v. Mexico; Daikin Park in Houston, TX
    • March 10, 2026 (9:00 p.m. ET): Team USA v. Italy; Daikin Park in Houston, TX
    • March 13-14, 2026 (TBD): Quarterfinals; Daikin Park in Houston, TX
    • March 15-16, 2026 (TBD): Semifinals; LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL
    • March 17, 2026 (TBD): Finals; LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL
  • March 25, 2026: MLB Opening Night (Yankees at Giants)
  • March 26, 2026: Phillies Season/Home Opener vs. Texas
  • March 27, 2026: Start of IronPigs season
    • September 20, 2026: End of IronPigs season
  • April 2. 2026: Start of Reading’s season
    • September 13, 2026: End of Reading’s season
  • April 2. 2026: Start of Threshers season
    • September 6, 2026: End of Threshers season
  • April 3, 2026: Start of Jersey Shore’s season
    • September 6, 2026: End of Jersey Shore’s season
  • July 11, 2026: 2026 MLB All-Star Futures Game, Philadelphia PA
  • July 12-13, 2026: MLB First-Year Player Draft, Philadelphia PA (Phillies drop 10 slots due to spending)
  • July 13, 2026: 2026 Home Run Derby, Philadelphia PA
  • July 14, 2026: 2026 MLB All-Star Game, Philadelphia PA
  • July 31, 2026: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. ET
  • August 14-16, 2026: Field of Dreams Game, one game TBD from Phillies at Twins series
  • August 31, 2026: Post-season eligibility lists are established at 11:59 p.m. ET. To be eligible, a player must be a bona fide member of a qualifying team August 31 and remain a bona fide member through end of the applicable Postseason series.
  • September 1, 2026: Active Major League player limit increased to 28 and 14 pitchers
  • September 6, 2026: End of BlueClaws’ regular season
  • September 6, 2026: End of Threshers’ regular season
  • September 13, 2026: End of Reading’s regular season
  • September 20, 2026: End of IronPigs’ regular season
  • September 27, 2026: Last Day of MLB Regular Season
  • December 1, 2026 (11:59 p.m. ET): MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.  (Note that there are many more dates to add from Spring Training through the end of the 2026 season and calendar year.  I will add when I have accurate dates for them.)

 

230 thoughts on “2025-26 Offseason Roster and Payroll Information and Phillies Discussion (10/21/2025)”

  1. I too don’t see schwarbs coming back, so who is replacing the HR.. alonso? rotating cast of DH for Him/Harp/JT

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      1. Pete Alonso, who is 2 years younger, and very well may be just as good (as a DH). At worst, he’s a very strong Plan B. I’d prefer if they keep Schwarber but if they replace him with Alonso, they should be fine (depending on the terms of the contract).

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  4. This is an incredible post, Jim. Just amazing. All the deep number crunching and thinking on roster construction and payroll obligations I don’t have the time or effort to do – ever. So helpful.

    Liked by 3 people

  5. I think if we take Bader and Alvarado off the ledger and pay them their buyouts (with Alvarado probably coming back on a lower deal but bear with me), that lowers the payroll down to about $245M.

    Does Alec Bohm come back? If not, you can take off approximately $10.3M in his final season. Maybe Sosa and Kemp provide a stop-gap until Miller is ready. So now your number is down to about $235M.

    Bring back Schwarber at $30M a year. Now $265M.

    Maybe a small package could be centered around Marsh to the Cubs for Carson Kelly. He’s a catcher owed $6.5M for one more pre-arb year. Or trade for Hunter Goodman from the Rockies. Or perhaps go after Harry Ford from the Mariners.

    And ok, let’s add Bader for about $12M per year as well. That puts you up to $277M.

    Is it possible to swing a deal for Taylor Ward? He’s owed $12.9M for next year, which puts us right around the $290M mark.

    Or there are other possibilities. Maybe Luis Robert is back on the table? No Schwarber, go with Bregman. Maybe making a deal with the ChiSox or Angels can provide A LITTLE salary relief with Castellanos and/or Walker.

    Turner

    Schwarber

    Goodman

    Harper

    Ward

    Stott

    Bader

    Kemp/Sosa

    Crawford

    I think there are many possibilities to get creative this off-season. Tucker, Bellinger, and even Bichette could find their way onto this team. This should be a Trader Dave off-season. And who knows? Maybe Middleton will let him spend $325M on the 2026 payroll this off season. That changes the calculus as well.

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  6. I have to echo the others that posted how thorough a report this is Jimmy. You are the man when it comes to covering our MiLB details. Thank You.

    I maintain its not always a bad thing to punt when you are 4th and 1!

    I’d make both QO’s and not lose any sleep.

    Cease and King are interesting to me.

    I wish we had a better war time consigliere like Tom Hagen or a Winston Wolfe from Pulp Fiction.

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  7. Listening to DD. I got the impression that nothing big with salary. So imo another 90 plus wins. And loss in playoffs.

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    1. Well, a 90+ (not a 100 +) win team will win the WS this year and most years. It seems likely that the 2026 title will run through L.A.

      I don’t see a point to listening to Dombrowski too intently at season’send. His ‘busy season’ begins now or soon and his words are heard not just by fans but by the executives he hopes to do business with. He isn’t and shouldn’t be saying anything publicly that makes it harder for him to do what he intends to do.

      The podcast pundits feed off content and try to divine from the tea leaves where the team is headed. DD states the obvious: the team won’t have a $ 400 M budget and they won’t sign all of the team’s impending free agents.

      I think you can get a better idea of what Dombrowski will do by looking at what he’s done in the past than by listening to words that are meant to be elliptical and open to wide interpretation.

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    1. I think one small issue about Bader is that our fanbase not fully realize that he isn’t that good of a hitter as what we saw. However, the defense is legit, and I think he brings a great energy onto the field that I think we need more of. What’s an over pay? anything over $12M? Anything over 2 years? Perhaps. But I think he is a guy we should retain, even if we have to overextend ourselves a little bit.

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      1. Topper says Bader has made swing adjustments that have made him a better hitter than he’s been. My off-season wish list, expensive but not the most expensive I’ve seen.

        -sign Bader on a 2-year deal f $ 25 total

        –pick-up the Alvarado option

        -Bohm, Marsh,Stubbs, a pitcher like Jean Cabrera to the Orioles for C Adley Rutschman and OF Tyler O’Neill

        -Castellanos anywhere for anything

        –sign FA 3B Alex Bregman 4 years max.

        -sign FA P Michael Kopech

        -sign Kyle Schwarber 4 years max.

        No one will like all of this. No one will say it’s a tear down or standing pat. The resulting team could look the Dodgers in the eye and cost less.

        At some point there are 4 guys (Bregman, Turner, Stott and Miller) for 3 infield slots. Fortunately, all 4 have some positional flexibility.

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        1. You would like the Phillies to ask about Rutschmann. If you can acquire him for a reasonable price, there are many good reasons to do it. He’s literally the perfect acquisition target. Still young, still a few years away from free agency, coming off a down year (where he was still decent due to his defense), could man the position for the next 5-6 years, and I think the Orioles are just foolish enough to do something like this. My view, however, is that the Phillies would be more in the market for a guy like Harry Ford than Rutschmann because all the tea leaves suggest to me that Realmuto is back for a few more years.

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      1. Harry Ford is very interesting. There’s good power, great speed and outstanding plate discipline. He’s had seasons where he walked over 100 times. The importance of this is difficult to overstate. If I’m the Phillies, he’s someone I definitely ask about. And you’re right, he’s not going to play on the Mariners due to Raleigh. He will almost certainly be traded (it’s the only way to maximize his value) – the question is, to whom? By the way, you acquire Ford and there’s a good chance that your catcher is then set for the next 8-10 years – not a small thing.

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        1. To be clear, Ford has had one season where he walked 100 times, but two other seasons where he was on a pace to do so. This makes him much more valuable, as shown by his .405 OBP in the minors where he had a BA of just .266. He’s exactly the type of guy you should target in a trade when your starting catcher (I’m assuming they’ll sign Realmuto again) is going to be 35.

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        2. Seattle must realize that Ford is blocked…I wonder what they would want for him. He is a top 100 prospect, though is slipping down the ladder the last year now, I would be hesitant in giving up Crawford, Miller or Painter. But one of them is who Dipoto would ask in exchange.

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          1. At first glance, the Mariners are a young team with not many holes. If I was the Mariners, I would target pitching but there’s no way the Phillies are parting with Painter and probably not Wood.

            So I’m guessing Escobar for Ford straight up. Who would want that trade?

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            1. Why is Ford blocked? Seattle had Jorge Polanco as their DH in 2025 and he will be a FA if the mutual option is declined. They can use the DH spot to rotate Raleigh to DH and save some wear and tear. Ford can DH and be the back-up catcher.

              As for a potential trade, why would Seattle trade him to the Phillies for some random pitcher not in the top-100 when they could do much better elsewhere.

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            2. Because Raleigh’s highest and best use is as a catcher, with a little DH time on his non-catching days. The general rule – and it’s a good one – is you keep your hitters at the most high value defensive positions for as long as you can. Put another way, it’s a lot easier to find a good hitting DH than it is to find a good hitting catcher.

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            3. This will have the effect of relegating Ford to back-up catcher, at best. They can get someone else to be the back-up catcher. It’s a reasonable expectation that Ford is in play in a trade.

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            4. I thought Ford was a good hitter which is why he would be the everyday DH when not catching. He and Raleigh would split the 2 spots. Now you are arguing that Ford is a good hitter “for a catcher” but there are better options at DH.

              As for the trade, again, why would they trade him to the Phillies for someone not in the Phillies top-100?

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            5. They are not going to put an unproven young hitter at DH, especially if he’s a catching prospect – it’s just not going to happen, particularly for a contending team (I mean, have you ever seen this happen? I haven’t). They are going to have an established DH and spell that person with Raleigh on his non-catching days. Ford, at best, would be a back-up, where his talent would be wasted which, again, is why I expect him to be in play for a trade. Put another way, he’ll provide more value through a trade than as a once every five days catcher.

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  10. Notwithstanding Ford being a good hitter with good on base skills – Keith Law states that he is not a good defender and feels that he is out of position there. While I agree it would be best to have a hitter in the catching spot I’m not sure we have all been spoiled by JT who can still do both more than passably. I would rather see a glove first, heady game caller at the position.
    My thought would be to explore KC ‘s catching group as they have several high minors catchers who are highly thought of.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. 3 of Royals top 10 prospects are catchers, # 2,3 and 10. A 4th player is ranked # 29 and has a profile similar but not as good as Tait. Prospects 2 and 3 are close to majors and will have hard time pushing the old war horse Salvy Perez out – despite fact he dh’s a lot now.

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  12. For whatever it’s worth, we didn’t learn much about Marchan as a hitter this year, but, at the very least, he’s one hell of a back-up catcher with incredible fielding/throwing skills and he calls an outstanding game. One way or another, Marchan should have a solid big league career.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. About 20 minutes ago, I read the On Pattison article by Tim Kelly where Scott Boras defends Bryce Harper against the comments made by Dave Dombrowski during his end of season Q&A. It set my brain on fire. I spent 20 minutes checking stats using Baseball Prospectus.

    Dombrowski’s comments regarding Harper went like this,

    “I guess we’ll find out if he becomes elite or he continues to be good. Can he rise to the next level? I don’t really know the answer. He’s the one that will dictate that more than anything else. I don’t think he’s content with the year that he had. It wasn’t a bad year, but when I think of Bryce Harper, you think elite. You think one of the top 10 players in baseball. I don’t think he fit into that category. Very good player, but I have no idea. I’ve seen guys his age … level off, and I’ve seen guys rise again. We’ll see what happens.”

    He went on to compare Harper to Freddie Freeman, a fellow future Hall of Famer that was closer to very good than great in 2025.

    Boras responded by cherry picking stats and created this comparison,

    “… only ten (10) qualified hitters that had a .355 OBP and .485 SLG this year: Bryce, Ohtani, Schwarber, Soto, Raleigh, Judge, José Ramírez, Freeman, Springer and Marte. If you want to talk about Harper’s minimums due to injury, there they are. Pretty nice group.”

    This lit my fuse, and I decided to check on his statement. “Qualified” means a hitter had 3.1 plate appearances per his team’s scheduled games. That’s 502.2 plate appearances for a 162-game season.

    Yes, Harper landed in the top ten of players with a .355 OBP and a .485 SLG. However, the cutoffs used by Boras are arbitrary at best and certainly self-serving. For instance, Matt Olson finished with a .366 OBP and .484 SLG.

    Harper slashed .261/.357/.487/.844 in 2025. All below his career averages for each stat. I checked his stats among all players who qualified with 502 plate appearances and he placed 62nd/24th/22nd/22nd for each.

    Compared to the rest of the top ten, he had the 8th best AVG with his .261 (Raleigh posted a .247 and Schwarber a .240, the AL and NL HR and RBI leaders). However, he was 10th among this group in the other 3 stats. The lowest finish other than Harper’s was 20th for OBP, 17th for SLG, and 14th for OPS.

    Harper certainly had a good season but not the type we have seen in the past.

    I wouldn’t consider him one of the top ten players in the league last season. Probably back end of a top twenty.

    I also think he would have benefitted having a batter like himself batting behind him much like Schwarber may have benefitted having Harper batting behind him.

    Still, neither “good” nor even “great” is “elite”.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. What bothers me about Harper’s play as he ages is his penchant for stretching the envelope on plays. Did it a couple times in the playoffs, onetime he lucked out the other time it cost us a run. You might say thats what makes him Harper, but as his physical ability to make those plays lessen with age he needs to take inventory on what he can and can’t accomplish. I doubt he can dial it back, personna won’t permit it.

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        1. I think Harper has always been a reckless baserunner – this didn’t start this year. It’s one of the very few negative things about him as a player. He always thinks he’ll make it and he often gets nailed as a runner.

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          1. Health seems to be what is holding Harper back from what he desires…..From PV….’Harper has missed 166 games over the last five seasons, more than an entire regular season’s worth of games. That’s 20 percent of regular-season action that the Phillies are left without Harper…… the following lengthy list of ailments since 2021:

            • left-forearm injury (2021)…• Back ….• Left calf injury….• Sore left wrist….• Facial injury (hit by pitch)…..• Fractured left thumb (hit by pitch, 2022)….• Right forearm injury….• Blister• Elbow injury….• Right elbow UCL (surgery) (2023)…..• Back spasms…..• Left hamstring strain (2024)…..• Left hand contusion…..• Migraine headaches….• Right elbow contusion (hit by pitch) (2025)….• Right wrist inflammation‘

            Injuries–whether big or nagging– are usually the beginning of the end to long careers. For Harper it has been 15 years. He needs to stay on the field and perhaps rested more as a DH thru the season….he needs to play at least to a 4WAR player.

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            1. I try hard not to reach any final conclusions with respect to Harper for the time being or at least until he’s a little older. One reason why is that, for a star player, he has been wildly inconsistent year to year. He had under 2 WAR full seasons for Washington when he was 23 and 25, surrounded by fantastic years. While he’s been more consistent in Philadelphia Bryce Harper’s performance bouncing up and down more than you would expect is actually consistent with his career arc. Your concerns about injury, however, are certainly legitimate. We will have to see on that.

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            2. Interesting article by Tim Rapp today about how “hurt” Harper and “uncomfortable” he is over the comments of the past week. He doesn’t like trade talk, and talk like that upset him in DC. It appears we have discovered a chink in the armor.

              The “main man”, the guy to whose drumbeat the players march and who directs the “commissioner to “get the EF out” is sensitive to the casual conversation made by DD ….. well, well we are walking on eggshells ……. Harper don’t like that.

              I’d love to know what that clubhouse is really like …. have a sense though, that I really know already.

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    2. Jim, Agree with all you say about Harper. But I really want to use this opportunity to thank and congratulate you for the immensely valuable and well presented report above. Especially amazing considering you are a “volunteer.”

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    3. I’ve no quarrels with what DD said and I’ve no animosity toward BH. He’s a bit contrived at times but he gives this team all he has. Probably played hurt, great defensively at 1B and wants to win as much as anybody on the team or in the FO.

      My expectations of elite from him are muted. I’ll take really good to good from here on out. If I get another elite year or two which he is definitely capable of then great.

      We had a run and it didn’t pan out. Now its on JM and the FO to try and add around him.

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  14. I did not mean for the above comment to be an indictment of Harper’s career. Rather it was meant to show how far an agent will go to defend a client and how easy it is to pluck numbers out of the air to define a player.

    Liked by 2 people

      1. Jim, GREAT original post up top, just an amazing effort!

        On Bryce, between his persona this whole season and the awkwardness of the comments made by DD, there is definitely some smoke from a fire, maybe one that’s barely burning, but it’s clear that not all is perfect. Will be interesting to see what happens going forward…

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        1. well he wanted more money or whatever and didn’t get it/hasn’t gotten/probably won’t get it… yeah there is certainly something

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          1. I agree. There have been two off-seasons of either Harper or Boras mentioning an extension into his 40’s.

            Middleton has said Bryce will retire a Phillie, but we’re not there yet for any kind of extension.

            Maybe something was said behind closed doors and Dombrowski finally felt the urge to defend the Phillies’ position a little bit with a somewhat indirect challenge to Bryce.

            I see nothing wrong with this. What I do see is that Bryce has the fewest amount of pitches in the strike zone to hit among all qualified hitters. Maybe Bryce needs to start taking his walks a little more. Barry Bonds would maybe get one pitch per game to do damage on. Maybe Bryce needs to just sit and wait for those one or two pitches and give them a smack. If you end up 2-3 with two singles and a walk, oh well. That’s still a good day and the power will still be there.

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      2. “Last season, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!”..…now that us funny and straight to the point. An old Tom Selleck movie from Mr Baseball.

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      3. I wonder if this team feels a need for another veteran leadership voice in the locker room. The voice of someone who knows what winning a ring feels like. To me I’m curious what adding Alex Bregman could do. The old leadership bunch is a little suspect at this point.

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    2. I’m less troubled with Boras. This is what Boras does for a living – he defends and promotes his clients and often has to stretch the truth to do so. Oh well . . . .

      What I’m more concerned about is the ongoing relationship between Harper and the Phillies’ management. Up until now, it’s been a complete collaboration and now things are fraying a little bit at the edges. I hope this can stay friendly. And on his extension – yeah, it’s ridiculous with 6 years left on his contract knowing he’ll be 38 when it ends. Give me a break. They are doing what they should do is nodding and say we’ll think about it so they don’t unnecessarily aggravate him but, c’mon already, stop with the extension talk until it’s at least a couple of years away.

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      1. I am concerned the first time Dave Dombrowski walks into the locker room in spring training ,,,,,will Bryce, while wearing his multi-color Phanatic headband, tell to him to get the eff out of here! (tic). I mean….if he can say it to the big guy, the Commish.

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  15. My 2 cents:

    In hindsight, Harper was underpaid… Now, Im sure the pressure is ramping up, 8 years into a 13 year contract, ideally one or 2 rings would have been on the mantle already. IMO, not Bryce’s fault.

    DD’s comments are being stretched for OTHER teams fan bases. As if the Phillies are going to trade Harper 😂 It won’t stop the Yankee fans from dreaming though.

    Im hoping the collection of FA’s plus to 2 home grown draft classes can finally get them over the hump. 2027 is loooming .. so do you go all in for it at the deadline this year? I think DD really has to have that conversation with JM. Might be time to empty the cupboard for a big push.

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    1. The moral of the story available to everyone to read is that repairs to the team made at the trade deadline come at a higher cost than in the prior off-season. The Jordan Romano failure (after losing Hoffman) made it necessary for the Phils to go all-in on Jhoan Duran. The failure to strengthen the OF sufficiently last off-season necessitated the acquisition of Harrison Bader.

      Both were good moves. However, Bader could have been acquired as late as February as a free agent. More work done now means less to do later.

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      1. I hear that, and agree with an asterick. For me, defining going “all in” is both the FA period & the deadline. The deadline gives you a chance to correct your mistakes, negate injuries, and add players who weren’t previously available. Why – it maybe Zack Wheeler’s last yea with 2027 looming. Im also not sure what that does with Luzardo’s contract but Wheeler can basically win you 7 of the needed 11/13 wins for for the WS.

        Good point with Bader, so hopefully they find that singing in FA and not the deadline. That is ideal for sure.

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    1. First, Vlad had a decent year (4.5 WAR). But the gains were Bichette (3.4 WAR as an impending FA) and Springer coming out of nowhere to post 4.8 WAR at age 35. They also had 3 players who are near GG caliber: Varsho, Clement, Straw. Their pitching held up.

      Once the playoffs started, Vlad went crazy. Springer had some timely bombs but most of the Blue Jays’ hitters have generally gotten hot.

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    2. Vlad had a good year but 2 huge rebound years from Bichette and Springer made a significant difference. Not only that, the Blue Jays had 3 near GG caliber years from Varsho, Clement, Straw.

      In the playoffs, Vlad has been going crazy (which obviously Bryce Harper did not do). Generally speaking, the Blue Jays’ hitters are all hot at the same time which is fueling this playoff run.

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  17. I think it’s very important to understand that Zack Wheeler’s days as the guy who’s going to win you 7 October games are likely over. The chances he comes back as that guy are very slim and I guarantee you DD is planning for that. What Zack is dealing with is far more significant than anything Doc, Cliff, or Roy O dealt with when their performance just dropped quickly and massively.

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      1. It’s not that he can’t, but at his age and with the innings pitched and this specific injury, it’s more likely he comes back and is a good pitcher but not a top 3 pitcher in baseball in ‘26.

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        1. In a followup interview Dombroski reported that Wheeler is spending the winter in Philadelphia to work with the medical and training staff. He seems pretty determined, especially given the number of kids he has and his determination to retire soonish to spend time with them.

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            1. ‘And he’s ahead of schedule‘.

              That goes into the category ….’he has come into spring training in the best shape of his life’.

              And it is all well and good, until a report comes out….’he has had a slight setback’.

              I am prepared to eventually hear for his return in June or July.

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  18. Pretty cool moments for GM1 –

    22 year old Boyertown Kid getting the start…

    Sir A with a nice inning of work before the game was blown open.

    Crowd was lively. Wondering what a Dome in Philly would look like

    I want TOR to win, but im also thinking a win for LAD may cool them off for a bit, not be as hungry. Whatever makes the path for the Phillies.

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  19. What do y’all think about the Harper Matt Gelb article …..something to worry about in a good or bad way ?

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    1. No worries. Reporters and others trying to make a big deal out of the GM not saying exactly the right thing and twisting it into things he did not say.

      Headlines saying “Harper may get traded” is an example when the GM didn’t even say anything remotely close to it.

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    3. Harper & Middleton haven’t talked since the season ended, nor has DD. Once that happens, it should all end. Until then the media will run wild with it for all that they can.

      Look at Mike Trout. How much trade speculation has he been through and he has never requested a trade.

      It’s kind of funny in a way, Bryce was the the young hot girl.. who has aged out, not she is worried about being replaced by a younger model. Meh, I wouldn’t worry about it. He’s not going anywhere imho.

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      1. This off-season is the time to address a very real problem that pertains to Harper and that is his protection in the batting order. Harper gets few strikes to swing at as pitchers figure out you don’t need to throw strikes to induce Harper’s swings.

        The Phils may not need a home run threat following Haroer in the order but they need an RBI threat, a guy who can drive in Harper if he takes 100 + walks in a season.

        If Harper doesn’t produce and isn’t happy in Philly under a year of laboratory conditions, then the next off-season could be the right time to discuss with Harper a move elsewhere in the best interest of all.

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    4. Gelb’s response to his Q&A article to a comment:

      Matt Gelb

      · 1h 30m ago

      STAFF

      @Stephen D. There are no trade rumors. There is no trade talk. It does not exist. It was manufactured by entertainers and influencers to capture your engagement.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. One hopes Harper understands that this trade stuff is all manufactured/made up. I believe he recently said he was hurt by the trade talk. It’s not a great sign if he doesn’t grasp that there is no actual trade talk for him to be hurt about.

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        1. This is an altogether different discussion if Harper was not accorded 10/5 rights protection. As it is, Harper knows that any discussion not factoring in his preferences has any bearing on him whatsoever. If he’s bothered by the loose talk, it would be hard to find a band aid small enough to make the hurt go away.

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      2. Don’t you love when people in the peanut gallery try to tell you what’s happening in the big tent? If the San Francisco Giants felt motivated to call Boras about the situation with Harper, it’s because there’s a rumor out there. Someone from Th Athletic calling Dombrowski could lead to a debunking of the story. Doesn’t mean there’s not a rumor that Boras (and Harper)are aware of.

        The rumor doesn’t stand up against the reality of Harper’s 10/5 rights.

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  20. I could see Harper with the Phils for 3 or 4 more years, then accepting a trade to his hometown A’s for the last couple of years of his contract. Goes into the Hall of Fame as a Phillie (yes, he will make the Hall of Fame).

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    1. If I were the Vegas GM….and they begin play in 2028 in Vegas….I would want him to sell out seats after the 2027 season ….prior to 2028….for marketing purposes. At that time he would be 35- years old and still may be very productive.

      Liked by 1 person

  21. I would be surprised and disappointed if these sore feelings were not sorted out in the next few months. DD slipped up and BH overreacted a bit. I’m also pretty sure that Middleton will ask DD (“ask” as in politely tell) to make things right with BH and DD should readily comply. I cannot for the life of me believe they are trying to trade Bryce and why should they? He’s the face of the franchise and has several very good to great years left. Hopefully, this is just a pothole in the road.

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  22. Jarrett Seidler (Baseball Prospectus) just posted this on Bluesky, and then added he’ll have a full writeup in a couple of weeks

    “about the only nice thing I can say about the Phillies farm right now is that every time I look at Aidan Miller more closely I think he’s better. Unfortunately, the opposite is true for ~every other prospect in the system”

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    1. I am so over these experts. I read a lot of scouting reports on Sixers draft pick, Edgecombe. They said can’t shoot, can’t handled ball, maybe a bench defender. He is setting records so far, 25 pts per game as a rookie. So when I hear all our prospects aren’t good. That’s his opinion, and options are like????????? Everyone has one

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  23. Jim Bowden predicts –

    • Schwarbs – 5 yrs / $160
    • JT – 2 / $34
    • Tucker – 10 / $427
    • Alonso – 6 / $182

    Not seeing this as a good Winter. Cannot run these guys back and expect more. 2025 solidified 2 gaps – #3-4 Starter / Luzardo and Closer / Duran.

    But it exposed other gaps –

    • Limited flexibility in salary spend
    • Lack of belief in Farm
    • Marsh, Bohm – need upgrade
    • Walker, Casty – need buyout
    • CF?
    • Wheels uncertainty
    • Nola aging
    • Need a ‘dude’ for the 8th – Strahm and Kerkering are 7th inning setups

    Forget 2025 and 96 Wins.

    How can you get 92+ in 2026 and win 13 games (2+3+4+4) in October?

    Only positive, the Harper stuff is pure WIP clickbait.

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    1. Need a dude behind Harper in the order. If it was a visible need before the latest Harper dust up, I see it as a priority now.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Been thinking about this, and without writing a marathon reply…

        I’m thinking it’s some combination of Otto Kemp & either resigning Bader, trading for Roberts, possibly Hoskins as a DH and the main FA is either Schwarber, Tucker, or Bregman. 1 of those 3.

        To boost the offense, which was already really good… you are going to have sacrifice defense.

        Let’s look at an option where Schwarber doesnt resign

        Turner (SS), Harper (1B), Tucker (RF), Roberts (CWS)(LF), Hoskins (DH) Bohm (3B), Realmuto (C),

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        1. Post was cutoff:

          Turner (SS), Harper (1B), Tucker (RF), Roberts (CWS)(LF), Hoskins (DH) Bohm/Kemp (3B), Realmuto (C),Crawford (CF), Stott/Sosa (2B) @estimated 146 mil of payroll
          or

          Turner (SS) Harper (1B) Bregman (3B) Kemp (LF) Hoskins (DH) Bader (RF) Realmuto (C) Sosa (2B) Crawford (CF) @ estimated 126 mil of payroll

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          1. I’d sign both Schwarber and Alonso and move BH back to OF. I’d start Crawford every night in CF. I’d platoon Kemp and Marsh in a Corner.

            I let JT walk and roll with Marchan and a cheap back-up to him.

            One more year of Stott and Bohm before either Miller or Escobar are ready.

            Look at the market for either King or Cease or even Ranger if the money doesn’t appear for any of them and there is always a BP guy or two to take a flyer on just not at $10 million. And yeah I’m picking up Alvardo’s option.

            If a good trade were to materialize for Bohm or Marsh take it and try to re-up with Bader for 2 years.

            I’m blowing by the LT yes I know but I’m getting serious about winning the dang thing. If JM isn’t willing to spend that just burn it down and start over.

            You wanna swap out Bregman for Alonso ok maybe but he has to be cheaper because Bregman is hurt a lot lately.

            One thing about Kyle and Pete they post for you every night.

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            1. ultimately, my view now is to weaken the SR in favor of a stronger BP & Offense.

              Let Ranger walk, as painful as it sounds… but allocate his money to the BP for Helsely or Diaz + Sir A type. Duran & Diaz woudl be awesome though. I also keep Alvarado (unless everyone is so bitter at him. BTW… he’s still fat imo)

              the main way to boost the offense is to let the young guys play to balance the high priced guys. Castellanos, Marsh, Bohm, Sosa, Stott are all potential trade bait as I see it.

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          1. Rocco, I agree… but when you look at the team stats, collectively as an entire season… they were really good. I believe many of us believe that is misleading. Total bases for one, was top 3.

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          2. Consistent offense is a myth.

            The Phils in this years postseason scored more runs per game (3.75) than the Brewers (2.78), the Tigers (3.63), the Padres (1.67), the Red Sox (2.00), the Guardians (3.33), and the Cubs (2.88).

            Keep in mind, there are some potent offenses in that list. Also keep in mind that we held the vaunted Dodgers offense to two runs in consecutive games; one of which went 11 innings.

            Even Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge can look mortal in a short series. There is no cure to bad luck.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. A myth? Guess you didn’t watch this team. Score 8-10 runs one game. 2 or 3 next two. Average looks good . But not the results. Myth I can’t believe you said that.

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            2. who cares what padres, brewers did. I care what we did. And are offense killed us. Lack of clutch hitting.

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            4. I also keep in mind that the “Big bucks (Schwarber, Turner and Harper) in games 1, 2 and 4 were 3 for 35.

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            5. The Yankees had the best offense in MLB this year and got shut out more times in a row than we did.

              The Dodgers had the best offense in the NL and only managed to beat us by 1 run in each of their wins.

              The Brewers were the third best offense, the Cubs the fifth, and the Red Sox the seventh. That’s why those stats matter.

              You’re focusing on a small number of games and extrapolating that as if it tells the whole story, but it doesn’t. The whole story is this: the Phillies were a top-10 offense in baseball. They scored more runs than 22 other teams (73.33%). They scored more runs than their opponents 96 times (59.26%). They were shut out 11 times all year (6.79%), meanwhile they scored 4+ runs 93 (NINETY THREE) times (57.41%).

              So really, the Phils were VERY consistent offensively. But the way you refer to consistency simply does not exist in baseball. Baseball is inherently chaotic. No amount of additions or changes will give you a team that always scores 3+ runs or never slumps. It just can’t happen. Even the best teams and best players will fails sometimes (often, really). Baseball is a sport where succeeding 30% of the time is considered excellent. So your expectations are just unrealistic.

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            6. @oldruff

              Shohei hit 0.56/.150/.056. He had one hit the entire series, and it was a single.

              Freeman, Betts, and Smith were also mostly absent. Their only real offense came from Teoscar Hernandez, Max Muncy, Alex Call, and Ben Rortvedt of all people.

              Like I said, even the best players will slump. Ours just had very unfortunate timing.

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    1. Its happened 3X since 1985 I believe that a WS made up of one team that swept their LCS played a team that went 7 in theirs. Each time the team that needed 7 games to advance to the WS won it.

      So there is that to cheer on….

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  25. One heck of a WS baseball game. Expensive, but the fans got their monies worth and lots of good baseball. How about the Ohtani respect ……. 2 hrs, 2b, single and 5 IW. One thing though, ….. Ernie wouldn’t have said ….. “Let play two”!😉

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  26. Hypothetical …

    Would you trade Wheeler & Luzardo for Skubal, assuming a big money extension?

    Your SR is Now Skubal,Sanchez,Painter, Nola, and a FA.

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    1. Yes, but it will never happen because the Tigers would only get the benefit of that for one year – after year one it’s Skubal for Luzardo and, as much as I like Luzardo, that’s not fair compensation. And Wheeler has 10 and 5 rights and could veto the trade.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Yamamoto, coming off a complete game in game 2 and warming up to pitch the 19th inning in game 3 reminded me of back when Iron Joe McGinnity would pitch both ends of a double header, Never thought I’d see that kind of durability in baseball ever again.

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      2. true, but Skubal has 1 year before he hits FA. So technically you are getting Wheeler for 2, and Luzardo for a few years vs 1 of Skubal. Let’s assume Wheeler is good to go. What DET would do it is because they are scared of the asking price. They are peaking and this gives them some flexibility on staying competitive longer. If they lose Skubal, thats pretty big for them.

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        1. The optimal thing for Detroit would be to sign Skubal – he’s probably the best pitcher in baseball and definitely in the top 3. I still think the trade is light because if they made it and didn’t sign Luzardo, after next year, they have a growing old and potentially not healthy Wheeler for one year at an enormous price – he might not even be worth that contract year (price outweighs performance). I hear you, but if I’m Detroit, I don’t make that trade unless: (a) I can’t sign Skubal this offseason and the tea leaves suggest he’ll be up for the highest bidder; and (b) the Phillies give me a grade A prospect to go along with those other two (if that happened, I think the Phillies would want a grade B prospect in return) because you can’t get rid of Tarik Skubal and have no long-term asset in return.

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          1. Okay, let’s change it up. Wheeler, Painter, minimal salary reliever 5-10mil for Skubal & a prospect in the 5-10 range? You doing it then? Skubal has to agree to extension too. This assumes DET can’t meet his demands, which is possible.

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            2. Good trade proposal, assuming Wheeler waives 5/10 rights (which he probably wouldn’t). I could go either way on that one. How that would look in 5 years depends almost entirely on Painter’s development and if you can lock Luzardo into a LT contract this offseason. If Painter is an AS candidate in year 2 or Luzardo bolts, it’s probably not the right move, but that’s tempting, even if it does make the rotation too lefty heavy.

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  28. Based off Jim’s main post, reshaping this roster isn’t going to be too easy. Im basing the following off – not caring about the 50%CBT tax pentalty, and operating at either the 3rd CBT level or Ideally at the 4th level.

    I have 7 open spots the active roster, and hoping for one of Lazar, McGarry, Wood, Johnson, or another to grab 1 to make it 6.

    I’m trading or decling option – Stott,Bohm, Marsh, Castellanos, Walker, Bader. Seriously considering Strahm (trade)

    I add – Crawford, Painter, and 1 of the prospects listen above.

    That leaves 2 BP spots, 2 OF spots, 2 INF spots to fill with either:

    55.5 million or 75.5 million to spend at the 3rd & 4th CBT thresholds

    If that is too tight, you can maybe get rid of Alvarado’s entirely or trade Strahm. You will be one less LH reliever though, not too many available.

    How how are you boosting the offense & BP with that money?

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-free-agents-2025-2026 – list of all the FA.

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    1. Since we will more than likely lose Ranger….when it comes to free agent pitchers that may be affordable, I would kick the tires on the following.

      Jack Flaherty (30, 5.9) — can opt out…..Chris Bassitt (37, 4.8)…..Michael King (31, 4.7) — mutual option…..Zac Gallen (30, 3.9)…..Patrick Corbin (36, 3.6)….Zach Eflin (32, 2.6)….Nestor Cortes (31, 2.1)….Chris Paddack (30, 1.8)….Jon Gray (34, 1.4)….Austin Gomber (32, 0.9)….Dustin May (28, 0.8)….Jordan Montgomery (33, 0.6)….John Means (33, 0.5) — club option….Walker Buehler (31, -0.4).

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      1. I agree on adding a SP even if Painter or Walker (gasp) is available. They need the depth and that would push Walker (if not traded) to swing man/long relief. It allows Painter to right the ship and not block him from a promotion.

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    2. Instead of looking at the roster as a group of movable pieces (which I see no evidence that Dombrowaki would endorse), I invite you to look at the Phillies with a need to match up position by position with the preeminent NL team, the Dodgers.

      The Dodgers have the oldest personnel in baseball. The Phils aren’t going to outspend the Dodgers but, in an effort to compete, the Phils should not try and ‘out age’ the Dodgers. So it’s trying to introduce talent on the Phils’ roster that will either age better or develop better than what the Dodgers can manage.

      Otherwise a parcel of moves just sound random and lacking in focus.

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      1. Lets call a spade a spade….when the best and finest NPL superstars want to go and play for the Dodgers, and the Dodgers are able to sign them to Deferment LTCs….the Phillies and the other MLB team will be upagainst it in trying to out-compete them.

        Jim’s idea on foreign roster restrictsions should apply when it come to free agent signings..

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      2. If that’s the goal you add Tucker in RF.

        Just for shorthand, I’ll use bWAR, not that it’s perfect but it will give a rough sense:

        Crawford plays center. Marsh and Kemp platoon in left. Compared to the current Dodgers team, the Phils would be better in two of those three positions, with CF going to the Dodgers but let’s see how Crawford does. (Kike Hernandez had 0.1 WAR this year and Teoscar Hernandez had 1.5)

        Middle infield of Turner (5.5 WAR) and Stott (2.1 WAR) is a little better than the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts (4.8 WAR) and Tommy Edman (1.1 WAR). First base is close, with Harper at 3.2 WAR and Freddie Freeman at 3.5 WAR.

        Third base is a major advantage to the Dodgers, with Max Muncy at 3.6 WAR and Alex Bohm at 1.3 WAR. Could the gap narrow next year if Aidan Miller comes up (and Muncy will be 35)?

        DH is another major advantage to the Dodgers with Ohtani earning 6.6 WAR from playing DH, and Schwarber at 4.7 WAR.

        Finally, catcher is another major advantage for the Dodgers, with Will Smith at 4.5 WAR, and JT at 2.6 WAR.

        At least signing Tucker would give the Phils a shot at matching up . . .

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        1. This is useful analysis, and combined with the starting rotation and bullpen comparisons begins to get where you where you need to be to compete at the highest level going forward.

          What move makes Harper more effective in the 3rd spot in the order? Where can you expect age-related declines on the Phils? Where do you clear a path for young talent? How can you construct a “bridge to Duran” in the pen?

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        2. I know a lot of people want Schwarber, but the team maybe better off with Tucker, Bader, and a trade for Ford. Let Schwarber & Realmuto leave FA, and trade Castellanos & Walker. Sign a top BP arm. The only hesitation is how much Realmuto really helps the pitching staff. If you miscalculate on that… it coudl all go bad pretty quick. Also you gotta wonder how Tucker’s projected 40 mil looks to Harper, especially on the all hints at an extension request

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    3. Totally agree, this off season is where Dave earns his money, and frankly this is where we determine the next 3-5 years of continued success.

      Prioritized list –

      • RH Bat, with power that ‘can’ hit 4th. Need to protect Bryce with a guy that can take the pressure of the 4th spot. Not currently on roster.
      • 8th Inning Bridge. Who augments Strahm, Orion to get us to Duran.
      • Batting 5th Guy. A guys who can Bat 6th, preferably plan Corner OF, and be the RBI machine. On current roster, only candidate is Bohm.

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    2. I hear that. I’d rather not as well but the current CBA demands for such craziness. You gotta ask, whats the best way to sustain success? In this age, signing FA such as BH catapulted this team out of the 10+ year drought. I would argue, that overlapping BH with Tucker can keep the window extended vs letting BH & his buddies drop off, and then in 5-6 years get the next Kyle Tucker then …

      I would think signing Tucker is a better move in 3 years Thant it will be for Schwarber IF Tucker is that good. If not… he was at 4.5 WAR this year, im not a fan of war but that indicates he’s around a top 25 player in the league

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  30. Romus A question can we spread out contract for ranger? Remember 18 for walker comes off next year. Then in 28. Wheeler 44 comes off. I hate to lose ranger and keep that stiff nola

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    1. The beauty of baseball – if you make it to the playoffs and have a solid team, you really do have a shot. I thought the Dodgers were about as prohibitive a favorite as you can get and yet, here we are, one game away from one of the biggest upsets in baseball history. This just doesn’t happen in the NBA (play-in teams have essentially zero chance of winning it all).

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      1. Yea, who expects a guy with all of 14 total ML innings pitched in his career to throw a 7 inning, 12-strikeout gem in the WS.

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      2. When to comes down to a series, anything can happen in baseball. Vlad Jr has been unconscious, he’s on a serious heater. But to put it simply, the Jays are hitting. The Jays have 8(!) guys with an OPS over .700 in this postseason. George Springer has been hurt the last 2 games and the Blue Jays haven’t missed a beat. The Jays have beaten Blake Snell twice, something the Phillies didn’t do all year. The Jays haven’t been favoured in any game vs the Dodgers if you can believe that, and they are underdogs again tomorrow night.

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  33. You are right except WS history is rife with great games from Karl Spooner, Johnny Kucks, Johnny Padres, and even our own Jim Konstanty pitching absolute wonderful gems that determined the winner. It seems like the big stage brings out the hero in even the least known players !

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Agreed. Don Larsen was hardly a household name before his perfect game. And it’s definitely not just the pitchers. Good old David Freese certainly made a name for himself as did Ron Swoboda, not to mention slugging Joe Blanton.

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  34. let’s be creative and think about miller as a right hand bat outfielder. he is athletic and fast (50+ stolen bases) and he should be able to do it. this may not be his eventual position but it could help solve a current problem.

    just a thought.

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    1. I seriously doubt that will happen. Miller already has the defensive chops to play a good SS. If that can translate to 3B, then the Phillies will be set there for a while. When was the last time the Phillies had a slugging 3B with a good glove? Scott Rolen? I’m not saying Miller is the next Rolen, heck if Miller comes close to Matt Chapman or Placido Polanco, I would take that.

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      1. Agreed. The general rule, and it’s a good one, is that you don’t move a player down on the defensive spectrum until you have to do that. In short, you don’t move a potentially capable infielder to the outfield because infielders are generally more valuable. All signs suggest that Miller can handle the infield. In fact, but for Trea Turner, Miller would be your shortstop of the future – but, for now, he’s blocked there. He’s not blocked at third (or even second to be honest!).

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  38. Great series … and best possible outcome. Hopefully the baseball gods are done rewarding the dodgers, kills their hunger a bit, and …. Blue jays fans now know the pain of 93. Let’Em suffer 🙂 Yes, Joe Carter can still kiss my …

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    1. That is how a plan comes together… lose in 1st Rd… have your ex reliver blow it to kill the ghost of joe carter…. if we can’t win a WS we can at least sabotage the competitor with our cast offs.. 2 chances with Sir Anthony and Hoffman… was shocked they made him the closer and thought they could get 4 outs out of him… they knew he was a Phillie no? lol smh…. Jays handed that WS to LA

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  39. That was an amazing game 7 and the Blue Jays had their chances. I still can’t believe the Jays lost that game. They had a magical run but they will find out how hard it is to get back to the WS, especially when they lose Bo Bichette to FA.

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      1. My buddy, who was disgusted with the direction of the team, renounced the Blue Jays in the early summer. He will now be known as the ex-Blue Jays fan, but he’ll still follow them to a certain extent.

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      1. This off-season, the Jays work to strengthen their pitching, particularly their bullpen, The Dodgers will plan for a 3-peat. Don’t think any team will out-bid them for Kyle Tucker. Feel sorry for the team that tries.

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        1. What the Dodgers are doing. Has to be repeated by others. Or else no one will beat them. To add tucker with that salary, is nuts. Plus three Japanese players, I believe the league will shut down . Lockout is going to happen

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          1. Well, There are Japanese players coming to the MLB this off-season and they won’t all be signing with the Dodgers.

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          2. rocco……from Babylon Bee….

            “Money well spent,” said Dodgers Executive VP and GM Braqondon Gomes. “It looked a little touch-and-go there for a bit, but thankfully, all the hard work we put in during the offseason writing checks ended up making the difference. We’ll enjoy this win as much as we can, and then we’ll get back to the drawing board and start the process of buying another World Series next year.” “I’d like to thank God and the dude who signs my paychecks,” said star slugger Shohei Ohtani through a translator. “While it’s true that money can’t buy you happiness, it can definitely buy some World Series rings……..”

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  40. with all that payroll, without Miguel Rojas they lose that game. Dynasties aren’t just about the stars, also about the glue guys.

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    1. Dodgers have 3 good glue guys in Kike, Rojas and Muncy.

      Who would say is the best glue on the current roster / historic Phils teams.

      Currently I’ve got Sosa; historic I’ve got Ruiz, Eisenrich, Duncan. Maybe this is part of the challenge

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Seriously – he must be desperate because that job is a dead end. It’s where GM careers go to die.

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  42. Like the Phillies, the Mets have some decisions to make. Not only did Alonso go for FA, so did Edwin Diaz (and his 3 WAR).

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        1. Not sure if Murakami will sign with the Dodgers. His primary position is 3B but he’s considered a below average defender there. Not only that, Muncy has a favorable $10M club option for 2026. The next position would be 1B, but Freeman is still signed for 2 more years. And obviously, Murakami is not starting over Ohtani at DH.

          Can Murakami sign with the Phillies? He could, but likely at DH if Schwarber goes elsewhere. I don’t think the Phillies want to have another subpar glove at 3B.

          Okamoto plays 3B/1B/OF but he’s older than Murakami. He should presumably cost less than Murakami.

          Imai is a smallish starter which I doubt the Phillies will be interested in.

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  43. Line up construction is key for the Phillies. Schwarber will likely be back only if they can find a good power hitting right handed bat for either OF or 3B (or both). Casty, JT, Bohm are good hitters in various ways, but not great protection behind Harper. But if none are found for OF or 3B then I would suspect they will find a right handed DH at the cost of Schwarbers return.

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  44. Remember when there was actually a conversation about re-signing Rhys Hoskins?

    Signed a 2/34 deal with the Brewers at age 31. He gave the Brewers 0.7 WAR total. Looks like Hoskins will be fishing for an invite to ST somewhere.

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  45. Trevor Story actually opted back in for his remaining 2/55 contract which I think is the right call. He averaged close to 2 WAR his first 4 years which is not egregious but not great considering he got paid $85M for his 4 years. I think the Red Sox secretly hoped he would opt out.

    What’s shocking to me is the White Sox picking up Luis Robert’s club option at $20M. This is now 2 straight years of 1.4 WAR. Sure, he’s still only 28 but that 2023 season of 5.3 WAR is looking like an outlier. He really hasn’t hit at all the last 2 years.

    Brandon Marsh (will be age 28 soon) actually posted 1.7 WAR and will be making maybe $5.25M in arbitration? And people want Marsh gone?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Bottom-line, the primary reason people want Marsh to be moved is his inability to hit LHP……2025-.88 PAs…197/.287/.289….and approx 35% K rate vs them. Does not look like that will change much as he approaches 30 years old. If he can magically transform those metrics next season, then people will change their minds I would think.

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    2. Marsh is good but I could see him getting replaced due to lineup construction. If the Phillies go the route to cut down on strike outs then he could end up being traded. A 280 BA, 342 OB% with average (in CF) to good defense (in corners) isn’t easy to replace but could be. The red flags are his strike out rate career is 31% this year somehow he was 25% (4% lower than his previous best year). If he had a full year of plate appearances at 31% K rate he would be one of the league leaders in that category.

      The question whether to trade him or not depends on who is playing the other spots. Crawford seems to be penciled in to LF most likely. I could see Bader (24% K rate career) back. But they may want a power righty bat in RF to protect Harper in line up. Anyway we will see what they have in mind.

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    3. Is anyone surprised that Trevor Story opted in to the remainder of his contract? That was a bad contract from the beginning. He’s not worth 2 additional years and $55 million on the open market, so of course he’s going to opt in.

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  46. This is the danger in giving older pitchers long term deals. We all know what Nola went through this past season. But the Padres gave Yu Darvish 6/108 at age 36. What??? Not surprisingly, his first 3 years he posted 2.8 WAR total. Now he had UCL surgery and will miss the entire 2026 season. Either Darvish’s agent is a miracle worker or the Padres GM is totally out of it.

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    1. There’s a running joke in the baseball circles of the internet that the Padres GM has a very personal relationship with a certain white powder.

      If you ever look closely at his history of moves, he’s not exactly casting doubt on that claim.

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    2. The Padres GM is, to my mind, a complete idiot. He trades really good young players away like they grow on trees. If he had managed his resources even a little better, the Padres would be in an incredible position right now. And, you’re right, he’s also agreed to many stupid long-term contracts, which is part of his mismanagement of resources. He’s impetuous, short-sighted and foolish and it’s amazing to me he still has his job.

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  47. As expected, Harrison Bader declined his mutual option.

    Salvardor Perez (age 36 in May) signed a 2/25 deal. JT will be turning 35 in March. No doubt Realmuto is in decline but I wouldn’t go more than 2/30.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I would be shocked if the Phillies signed Schwarber AND Alonso – it’s likely to be an “either or” situation.

      The Phillies should strongly consider signing Cease. He’s got an outstanding arm and is coming off a sub-par season. If you’re interested in him (and there’s reason they should be), now is the time to get that done at an affordable price (3-4 years, 22-25 million AAV) and, while they’re at it, they should extend Luzardo.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Phils have long term commitments to Nola and Sanchez, with hopes for the same for Painter. They should extend Luzardo from his current modest base. Then they have the expensive Wheeler and Walker. I’m confident they won’t add Cease or any other high-priced SP. It’s the wrong year for such a move.. The money has to be spent elsewhere.

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      2. The following starting pitchers are locked in: Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, Wheeler, Walker. Yes, Wheeler is hurt but he’s not going anywhere. Yes, Walker hasn’t been great but he’s been a good soldier and pretty sure the Phillies won’t be getting much for him in a trade (if it happens).

        No FA starting pitcher will sign with the Phillies unless they are guaranteed a starting spot. I don’t believe the Phillies will go this route. The Phillies need to start getting younger and Andrew Painter needs an extended opportunity. If Trey Yesavage can start WS games, there’s no reason why Painter can’t be in the starting rotation in March.

        Projected opening day starters: Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, Walker, Painter

        When Wheeler comes back, the Phillies can replace Walker or Painter (hopefully Walker).

        I would rather the Phillies extend Luzardo who’s still only 28. He won’t be cheap though, think Nola’s current deal (7/172).

        Note that the Phillies should have Jean Cabrera at Lehigh and Gage Wood should be on an accelerated promotion schedule if he performs.

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        1. Up until last season in AAA Painter hadn’t had a WHIP above 1 which is extreme dominance. Even his 10 IP last year at CLW he was .971.

          Then inexplicably they jump him right to AAA where he WHIPs 1.547 over 106 IP. Yesavage OTOH went through every level and his WHIP didn’t increase to over 1 until AA. Even then it was 1.06 then 1.15 in AAA all the while he held an over 13K/9.

          I’d be very hesitant to include Painter as an opening day lock to start in the rotation. Hopeful though…

          Liked by 1 person

          1. I think all Painter’s WHIP history you can put in your pocket. I’ll be looking at Painter’s overall pitch command and whether there’s some movement on his 4-seamer. With those in hand, you want Painter in the rotation and you don’t want to see him blocked by off-season additions with a MLB track record.

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            1. With all do respect who would Painter be blocked by even if they did add a Cease or King?

              After Sanchez and Luzardo what are you counting on?

              Wheeler your fingers are crossed he can be ready by May or June and then be at the level he was.

              Nola your fingers are just crossed.

              Walker LOL

              Like we saw with Halladay it can all go south in a hurry. JM and DD can’t sit on their hands and hope. Hope is not a strategy.

              Liked by 1 person

        2. The money they gave Nola will stop them, from getting Luzardo signed. This team is toast for yrs to come. There last chance was this yr.

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          1. They have some not so great contracts, but I don’t think the Nola contract alone prevents them from being competitive, especially if some of the younger players come along and Harper and Turner continue to play well for a few more years. Money is coming off the books this year, next year and the year after. What they can’t do is double down on the older guys year after year and watch them become less and less competitive and not take chances on other talent.

            Liked by 1 person

      3. A boy can dream but if JM only allows DD to piece meal this thing together we’re in for another year like last…

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        1. DD has to work his trading magic with Casty and Walker…..$38M will not come entirely off the books, but if he cut that number in half, there can be hope to go ahead and sign an impactful free agent like a Cease or King.

          I would also check the medicals on Zach Eflin…had the  lumbar microdiscectomy surgery in Aug ’25 to address chronic lower back pain…may be able to pitch on a pillow contract sometime next season.

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  50. On opening day 2025, the Phillies were fourth in payroll. 4th! A lot of teams would kill to have owners willing to spend i.e the Pirates. So I don’t understand the reasoning to spend even more money (and pay more tax) when the Blue Jays were a sac fly away or 2 outs away from winning a WS. And I compare the Blue Jays because they were outgunned by the Dodgers on paper but their stars AND young guys hit. The Phillies had none of that.

    If Harper and Turner don’t hit, the Phillies are not winning.

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    1. I contend that the league was outgunned on paper by the Dodgers

      I’d be ok if they came out and said to us fans listen we want to do a reset, getting a little younger and set ourselves up for the FA classes to come as we give some of our young guys a chance to prove they are MLB players.

      What I won’t accept is a few half a$$ed measures that give the appearance of wanting to compete for a ring.

      So its not about payroll its about being truly honest about where they are now and where they are going. Staying mediocre is the worst thing they can do.

      On paper as things stand today they are very mediocre. JT again on a 2 year deal very mediocre. Bringing in one decent FA whether that’s any of the names being floated Very Mediocre.

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      1. DMAR…mediocre…they won 96 games but bats choked, more or less, again come play-offs. Not sure how they can change things unless DD makes some blockbuster deals or spends more dollars.

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        1. Guru I think they should either blow by last years payroll or start to pair it back substantially and prepare for an upcoming FA class.

          Mediocre may not be a fair description of a 96 win team but also the division ended up being very weak. The Mets only managed 83 wins the rest were below 500.

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          1. I think you will be disappointed. As long as Harper is there, the Phillies are not “re-tooling”. And DD already mentioned that it doesn’t make sense for the payroll to be $400M.

            Sure, the Phillies haven’t won a title since 2008 but you can argue that this is the golden age of Phillies baseball with an owner willing to spend $300M. Don’t sweat it that much and enjoy the ride.

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      3. I don’t really understand your response, or perhaps I just don’t fully agree with you.

        First, the Phillies were not mediocre. They were a good team. They clearly weren’t good enough to beat the Dodgers, but they were quite good and I think if things broke slightly differently it would have been a much closer series. Oh well, they lost.

        Second, they threw a ton of money and resources into this team. They were 4th in payroll and they made some daring trades. They weren’t cutting corners anywhere so I don’t see the half measures problem you are referencing. And, no, they don’t have to be first in payroll to justify the notion they are “going for it” – that’s just not reasonable, nor is it ever going to happen.

        Third, and perhaps where we agree, is that they cannot keep doing the same thing over and over again – which they have done to a large degree the last few years. They need to change this team significantly in certain ways (but not in others) and really do have to think about how they beat the Dodgers – that’s a real thing. They also need to get younger and need to move on from some pre-FA players (Bohm) that fans falsely labeled as stars but that, in reality, are okay at best. One thing they must do is work younger players with upside into the mix so they both improve and free up payroll for big name players. You see how well that worked in Toronto and that needs to be done here.

        People falsely assume its the payment of stars that kill a team. Not so, it’s when you pay average (or worse) players like Castellanos and Walker big money that you get killed. Watch the Eagles, they rarely do that. Guys are either starts with big contracts or a younger players on cheap contracts – the Eagles almost never, ever pay an average or even above average player big money – and that, along with good drafting, is why they have such a great roster.

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        1. One of the reasons why my buddy is now an ex-Blue Jays fan is that the Jays made trades for mediocre players (Berrios, Gimenez) and either signed mediocre FAs (Gausman, Bassitt) or FAs that didn’t pan out (Springer).

          Besides the fact that pretty much everybody hit in the postseason for the Jays, the Jays won the AL East because of bounceback seasons for Springer and Bichette. Just those 2 players went from 0.8 WAR last season to 8.3 WAR this season! That is massive.

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        2. I appreciate JM’s spending I really do. And I loved these guys and enjoyed rooting for all of them. And I really believe Bryce deserves his ring and I want that for him. JT too and even Casty who plays his guts out for you.

          All that y’all are saying is true.

          I’m the one that said back in July and August maybe even September that I wasn’t going to be disappointed with the season if it didn’t end with a WS.

          My expectation was never that. I felt that they just weren’t addressing their reality after the defeats in 22-23-24.

          I’m sure to them the FO they felt like they were.

          Now here we are with a 25 ousting same issues different year and we’re less some key young future contributors and a wave of guys walking.

          I’m just trying to be very pragmatic in what has passed (and a tad critical) and then forward thinking about what needs to happen next.

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      4. By your reasoning, there must be 26 mediocre teams in baseball. That’s more parity than MLB can claim.

        “I’d be ok if they came out and said to us fans listen we want to do a reset, getting a little younger and set ourselves up for the FA classes to come as we give some of our young guys a chance to prove they are MLB players.”

        You’re bound to be disappointed since no baseball execs talk like that. Just like they don’t address their fans in Lithuanian. They will talk about putting the best team on the field and perhaps giving youth its day. If a team wants to buy free agents in the future, they need revenue and fans in the seats today. A first rule of sports management is to avoid saying things publicly that make it harder to do what you need to do to improve. That’s what your quoted paragraph (above) does.

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        1. In the NL West for example the Rockies lost 119 games. The next closest team was the White Sox at 102 games. In our division the Nats lost 96 games.

          14 teams were above 500. In the FWIW category.

          Personally and at my age I’m not disappointed with anything sports management says or does. I accept sports for what they are great theatre.

          Then I go about my day and banter with you guys about it LOL

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      1. You’re talking about Bo Bichette? I would be wary of giving him a long term deal at SS. For some reason, his foot speed has drastically reduced this season. There’s talk that he might have to to move to 2B or 3B.

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        1. Yeah….he does have some drawbacks, but , he is just 27 and will be expensive because some team will see him as one of their franchise players going forward . He might be looking at a 10-plus year deal. Over a .290 career guy with s power when he needs it, he might be the answer at shortstop for some team on the cusp….unless the Jays offer him to bring him back at a deal he wants.

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          1. Bo should go back to the Blue Jays but I think it’ll be a huge mistake if any teams offer him more than 6 years. His foot speed and health are legitimate concerns.

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  53. Cody Ashe will be an assistant hitting coach for the Tigers. I was a big fan and thought he would be the Phillies 3Bman for years. That’s how much I know.

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    1. Ashe had so many things going for him (beautiful swing – great approach), but as he himself later admitted, he couldn’t hit big league pitching because he couldn’t get around on a high 90s fastball. It’s that simple.

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  54. I see the Phillies are being reported to be the landing spot for Bregman. I don’t see it. The money is tight, “if” they want to stay under the 2 or 3rd CBT tax threshold. If they don’t care.. then sure.

    175 over 6 years… so to age 37. Bregman, Turner, and Harper can all argue over who needs the DH spot more every night. Come 2028.

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    2. The Astros are one of the best well run organizations in baseball and they are heavy into analytics. If they didn’t want to re-sign their own guy Alex Bregman, then the Phillies shouldn’t do it a year later.

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      1. thats a very good point!
        Besides… you’re not hearing no trash can stomping at Citizen’s Bank Park during a postseason game…

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      2. Absolutely. Knowing that they have Aidan Miller on the way and that he almost has to play third and not short in the big leagues, acquiring a soon to be declining Bregman would be a massive mistake, but precisely the type of mistake DD would make. Get us a freaking outfielder who can hit!!!

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        1. Miller could play 2B as well. Then you can move Stott. This will be a big year for him. He’s been a below average hitter for awhile now, some real competition may do him some good.

          That said I think Bregman is probably a plan B or C for losing either Schwarber or Realmunto or losing both. His RHB would fit in nicely in this line up and he’d be a major upgrade over Bohm. However, I think Dombrowski called Kemp out at the press conference purposely to open the door to him being the opening day 3B with Miller behind him.

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          1. Ouch……hope Kemp is targeted for LF and not 3B. Why have him worry about his defense at 3B! He did not even make his college’s team at 3B…played 2B his last year there.

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            2. Yeah…I think he would do well in LF…has the speed and the arm. If Marsh is back and out there also, maybe a platoon, who knows. He may be passable at 3B, like a different version of Bohm, but I rather see him in LF.

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  55. Phils won’t sign Bregman, Schwarber and Realmuto. The Bregman rumor sends a signal.

    I think part of the message is about team leadership involving a proven winner. This shouldn’t be lost on Harper. You don’t sign Bregman without other moves in mind.

    A FA outfielder signing is an easier fit. I think the Phils are ‘out’ on Tucker and Bellinger. And that they’re prepared to address a crowded infield with Harper, Turner, Bregman, Bohm, Stott, Sosa and, soon we hope, Aidan Miller.

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  56. Fairbanks option was declined by the Rays?

    without knowing details, it’s seems odd from afar, since why not pick up the option and then trade him at any point between now and and the deadline. He’s gotta get you something decent to good

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