Phillies Discussion 10/6/2025

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Ouch.  Not a very good start to the Division Series.

Not a very good weekend for the teams I root for (and against).

I’m over most of my anguish over Game One.  I still question bringing Robertson out to start the seventh inning.  He wasn’t very sharp getting his one out in the sixth (in fact I think the batter swung at balls 4 and 5 before grounding back to the pitcher).  But pitching won’t matter if they can’t produce more offense, particularly from the top of the order.

(The rest of my weekend was “ruined” by anemic efforts from Penn State and the Eagles, and a Cowboys victory.  I don’t have a particular rooting interest in any of the other baseball series, although I don’t mind seeing the Yankees lose.)

Reminder: I added a few resources to the menu above.  Under “Agreements, Rules, Rosters, etc.”, I have added links to four major baseball documents – The MLR which is the Official Professional Baseball Rules Book governing all things baseball beyond the ball field, the major league CBA, the minor league CBA, and the official rules governing the game of baseball.  All are the most recent versions I could find online.

The files with roster information remain on the page.

This is your Phillies discussion.

Transactions (End-of-season housekeeping has stalled.  Some players have been activated from the 7-Day Injury and Development Lists.  There are still another 50 activations from the 7-day, 60-day, FS injury, and Development Lists as well as a couple dozen minor leaguers declaring free agency.)

The activations and recalls on September 29th brought the active and 40-man rosters together with 39 “active” players plus 2 players on the 60-day IL, Wheeler and Robert.  The October status changes removed guys from the playoff roster.

October 2025
10/04/2025 – LHP José Alvarado roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Jean Cabrera roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Moisés Chace roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Nolan Hoffman roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Seth Johnson roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Max Lazar roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Michael Mercado roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Alan Rangel roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Jordan Romano roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – RHP Lou Trivino roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – C Garrett Stubbs roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – 2B Rafael Lantigua roster status changed by Phillies
10/04/2025 – CF Johan Rojas roster status changed by Phillies

September 2025
9/29/2025 – Phillies activated LHP José Alvarado from the 15-day IL
9/29/2025 – Phillies activated RHP Jordan Romano from the 15-day IL
9/29/2025 – Phillies recalled CF Johan Rojas from Lehigh Valley
9/29/2025 – Phillies recalled 2B Rafael Lantigua from Lehigh Valley
9/29/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Max Lazar from FCL Phillies
9/29/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Jean Cabrera from Reading
9/29/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Nolan Hoffman from Lehigh Valley
9/29/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Michael Mercado from Lehigh Valley
9/29/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Moisés Chace from Reading
9/29/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Seth Johnson from Lehigh Valley
9/29/2025 – Phillies recalled RHP Alan Rangel from Lehigh Valley
9/28/2025 – Phillies activated SS Trea Turner from the 10-day IL
9/28/2025 – Phillies optioned RHP Max Lazar to FCL Phillies
9/26/2025 – Phillies sent 2B Donovan Walton outright to Lehigh Valley

383 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 10/6/2025”

  1. Assume Aidan Miller is now not going to the AFL…he is not listed.

    Top 100 prospects in the Arizona Fall League

    2. Kevin McGonigle, SS, Tigers (Scottsdale)6. Sebastian Walcott, SS/3B, Rangers (Surprise)13. Josue De Paula, OF, Dodgers (Glendale)35. Braden Montgomery, OF, White Sox (Glendale)48. Alfredo Duno, C, Reds (Peoria)61. Charlie Condon, 1B/OF, Rockies (Salt River)62. Blake Mitchell, C, Royals (Surprise)75. Jonny Farmelo, OF, Mariners (Peoria)80. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Reds (Peoria)88. Hagen Smith, LHP, White Sox (Glendale)94. Cam Collier, 1B/3B, Reds (Peoria)

    And not on the Surprise roster:

    https://www.mlb.com/arizona-fall-league/roster/surprise

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    1. Stupidest damn decision…Analytics department, Thomson, or both should be fired. All the momentum and u just give up an out…sacrifice with slow ass Castellanos on 2nd. U shitting me???

      Liked by 1 person

  3. if you’re bunting him, why keep castellanos running when you have Wilson able to run. Awful managing. Especially with a lefty up who can pull the ball to advance the runner. Manager cost us one.

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  5. If the top 3 are doing this, the Phillies are not winning anything:

    Turner, Schwarber, Harper (1-11 game 1, 1-10 game 2)

    This puts enormous pressure on the pitching and the middle relief is not holding up.

    Those 3 guys better wake up or this series will end Wednesday night.

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    1. It really doesn’t matter at this point, it’s an elimination game so all hands on deck. If Nola even sniffs any trouble, he’s going to get yanked quickly. Same with Ranger.

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  7. I’ve been saying this for a while now, the Phillies need to get younger and stop paying these long term contracts. The Dodgers are able to get away with their older players because they can get the best, young talent from Japan (which is really unfair because they don’t need the help).

    The Phillies need to clear a path for Crawford by trading Casty.

    The Phillies should tell Painter that he’s competing for a rotation spot in ST and let Suarez walk.

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  8. If they lose this series for a quick out the last 2 years, I think it is time for a major reshuffle. Topper is gone, I don’t overpay for Schwarber, I don’t bring back JT. Use $ for a big FA .Casty and Kepler are cut loose.

    My outfield is Bader, Crawford and Marsh. Speed, defense, contact.

    Not knowing if/when Wheeler is back and not knowing if Nola continues his decline, I think we have to resign Suarez.

    Robertson, Kerkering, Romano, Tijaun are gone.

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  9. Top may be gone with another loss…….and 1 thru 3-2 for 21 in two games …came up short. And finally…..still a lot of blame to go around and I’ll leave that to others, but Duran coming in with his intro when they are losing, as I believe they’ve done in both games, just feels like bad baseball karma. Enough with the showman entertainment and concentrate on winning the games. Lets see the resilience of the team now with the next game.

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    1. We need to find our Howie and Siriani. The old adage you can’t win if you’re afraid to lose has set in with this management team.

      Seems like there is more of a bias towards keeping the bank sold out than there is winning a championship.

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  10. Irregardless, of the outcome of this series with the Dodgers and the postseason of BB. It is “Time” to re-shuffle the deck. Thomson, I suspect will be gone either way. This club needs some more energizing players in the Bader mold.

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  11. I think all of the following statements are true:

    1. The bunt decision was stupid. It’s a bad decision not only from a statistical perspective. I was at the game last night and it really deflated the entire stadium. It’s just a weak mindset to bunt a runner over.

    2. The bunt is not why we lost. We lost because our big guns simply don’t hit in the big games against elite pitchers. I think that it is a mindset thing, not a talent thing. But we have enough data to see the pattern. For what it’s worth, Bohm thinks it is a mindset thing too.

    https://x.com/JClarkNBCS/status/1975393797103092187

    3. We are down 0-2 because the Dodgers are a better team than the Phillies. It pains me to say it but they are simply deeper. They have more overall talent.

    4. We are not out of it. Obviously the chips are stacked against us but anything is possible in baseball. One game at a time. One at bat at a time.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I generally agree. That said, the talent gap between the Phillies and the Dodgers is not massive, which means the Phillies had a decent chance to beat the Dodgers, but they cannot afford to have the manager make large strategic mistakes. If they don’t bunt, I’m convinced the game is tied and good chance they win in the 9th. Why the hell do they have 60 person analytics department and allow this to happen? I don’t get it.

      Also, having thrown 75 pitches, you cannot convince me that Luzardo was done or that their 7th inning options out of the bullpen were any better. Putting in Kerkering when he has been unable to pitch well with men on base all year, was an enormous mistake. I have been one of Topper’s biggest defenders, but the managerial mistakes made in this game were glaring and inexcusable and if he is replaced, I’ll be a little sad, but he will have done it to himself. You cannot mismanage this game with the talent gap that we all know exists between these two teams. And these weren’t close calls that are just being second-guessed, they were structurally bad decisions.

      Liked by 2 people

    2. Level headed and good analysis. Like, maybe it doesn’t change the results but Bader getting hurt sucked. He’s the spark plug that doesn’t seemed phase but moments because he doesn’t overthink it. If Bader is healthy, does Wilson get to 3rd as a PR? To be fair, Casty probably isn’t in the game to get that double.

      Like you said, it’s the big guns getting hits in big spots. Teoscar getting the 3 run homer. Their big guns having gotten hits in big spots. Ours have not. Starting pitching has been great. Relief much less so though if Turner doesn’t go home that’s a 1 run inning instead of a 4 run inning.

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      1. I’ll also give Turner somewhat of a pass – he just got back and immediately has to see top notch starters.

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        1. Oh for sure, but they had a little time to adjust. Also, Sanchez and Luzardo were really really good in those two games. Hard to do much better than they did.

          Game 3 is where you really miss wheeler because instead of Luzardo/Yomimoto you get Nola/Yomimoto.

          Liked by 1 person

  13. Luzardo was impressive and did all he could do. I like that. It shouldn’t be hard for them to stay a playoff team. A few adds a few subtractions. The bar at a couple of positions was pretty low to improve upon.

    And we get to look forward to Crawford and possibly a few others. Again I really like Escobar in a season or two and while I’m still not sold on Miller maybe he ends up surprising me.

    2027 could be the great reset we’ll see…

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    1. This offseason Casty is definitely gone. I would have to imagine Kepler is gone. After that, it’s tough. He’s struggled but you still need to bring Schwarber back. Stott has rebounded to end the year. Can’t blame it all on Bohm but when your cleanup hitter has 11 homeruns, that’s a problem. Realmuto is still the best option they have and unless they are making a trade, he’s the only option really. Could they get creative and move Harper to the outfield and go after Alonso – particularly if they let Schwarber go?

      The only positions that are truly locked in are 2nd base and SS. Harper is locked in – somewhere. But a lot can move around.

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  14. Romus On the news just now. Senior citizen on roof top in Indiana. Threatening to jump. If phillies lose. Did you hear from don? I am worried

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  15. With regards to leaving Luzardo in after two guys reached vs going to the bullpen, Topper just didn’t grasp the situation.

    1. At that point, we had one hit and zero runs.
    2. We didn’t score a run the last 7 innings in Game 1.
    3. The current score was 0-0 in Top 7, and they have 2nd and 3rd, nobody out. The objective is to use the pitcher who gives you a chance to get out without giving up a run, or gives you the best chance to only allow one run.
    4. Kerkering has struggled mightily coming into games mid-inning with runners on – clearly not the right choice.
    5. The only reliever to me that you can argue gives you a better chance than Luzardo is Duran. So for me, the choice was between those two and I can see logical arguments in either direction.
    6. That was the HIGHEST LEVERAGE spot in the game and he simultaneously took his starting pitcher out that pitched a great game and left his strongest weapon idle in the bullpen.

    Earlier that day, he said all hands on deck to win a must win game but then proved he does not know how to manage to execute his own vision.

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  16. Future catchers?

    Two teams in the American League have a surplus in catching….and prospects that are on the MLB cusp.

    Seattle…..no one is moving Raleigh out…so Ford or Stevenson may be available.

    Kansas City…….has also two, Jensen or Mitchell , one could be had.

    Dodgers have Dalton Rushing….but doubt they will deal him to a NL rival.

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  17. I am not paying Realmuto 23 million not 20, or 15. One yr 7 million..or play marchan . In my perfect world Crawford leads off. Turner second.

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    2. Given the way this team is run, Topper will be back in 2026 if he wants to be. With a contract extension to 2927 so he’s not seen as a lame duck. This team went all in on Harper and guys Harper wanted to play with. The team has made the playoffs all 4 years under Thomson’s management. The organization is under no financial pressure; the stands are full.

      The Phils know they have 2 pillars (Sanchez, Luardo) in the rotation going forward and hope Wheeler remains a pillar. The over-priced Nola does not have to be a reliable #4 and the Phils have to hope he can be. Paid like an ace even if he is not one.

      No matter how the Phils feel about Realmuto, they have to be looking towards his successor. I expect a move to strengthen the position, whether Realmuto is extended or not.

      Teams always re-seed their grass playing surface and they always play with the bullpen. The known core is Duran and Strahm. The likely inclusions are Alvarado, Banks and Kerkering. There’s no clear cut right handed set-up man and that is the addition I expect for the pen.

      I think the infield remains set. So long as the Phils believe in Aidan Miller, there is no incentive for a major infield addition. Miller’s job is to outplay someone on the left side of the infield — either making Bohm expendable or Turner movable. The Phils can afford to wait on that happening and I expect they will.

      They can’t wait or play back the current outfield. If it were me, Bader is the guy in center field flanked in given situations by Crawford, Marsh, Kepler and Kemp. Some will argue to lose Kepler but to me that causes undue reliance on the unproven Crawford and Kemp.

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      2. Good analysis. This is the year/time to sign Luzardo to a long-term extension and get him under market before he becomes a FA.

        On catcher, if there’s one team I want to trade with it’s Baltimore. I think the new management has zero idea of what it is doing and this will be the worst team in baseball (or one of the worst) in not too long and they will stay bad because they are run as poorly as you could imagine. One of the things they clearly are doing wrong is not coaching up players properly. All of their good young talent has gone backwards, which is incomprehensible. I doubt that’s a coincidence. So if you want to pick up good young talent at a discount from Baltimore, now is the time to do it. I’d target Rutschmann and some others. There’s talent there that I think can be had at a discount.

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          1. To the Orioles: Bohm. Marsh, Stubbs and any pitching prospects not named Painter or Wood

            To the Phils: Rutschman and OF Tyler O’Neill

            Orioles get younger, cheaper with a little pitching help. If you look at the O’s current salary structure, O’Neill is the outlier.

            Phils gamble on a healthy Adley bounce back and derive some savings from what they’d pay for catching.

            The bidding for Rutschman may get heavy. The Birds need pitching and the Phils may not have enough to offer a budget-conscious team.

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        2. As for Baltimore and the regression of their young talent and finishing in last place…..same could be said about the Jays last year finishing in 5th place of the AL-East.

          Just because a team finishes well out of the running one year, does not mean they are ready to tear it all down and start shipping out their talent at discount prices. Just as a player goes thru development struggles, same goes for teams with many young players.

          I hesitate to think what Elias will ask in return for Adley R…….but then again I fear what Dave D would give up for him

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          1. I believe the situations in Baltimore and Toronto are different.

            Toronto had some players with a dip last year, but some of the younger players played quite well, including Varsho and Guerrero. Toronto also had older players bounce back quite a bit this year, including Springer. Baltimore, however, has had a whole team of younger players, almost entirely as a group, play a whole bunch worse. Also, Baltimore never made any attempt to really put together a rotation or spend money to get better – it’s like the person who buys a house with the best lawn on the block and slowly over a few years, it looks awful. And it doesn’t help, they let the executive who was responsible for drafting their young talent get away. How could you let that guy walk? I don’t get it.

            My sense is that this new ownership group in Baltimore is cheap, short-sighted and has no idea of what it is doing and this lack of leadership is showing up in many areas after only a couple of years. I don’t think this is a blip, I think it’s a rapidly sinking ship. Thank God I’m not an Orioles fan.

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            1. On the lawn analogy, it actually reminds me a little more of the sale of Genuardi’s. If you’re over 30 and live in the Philly suburbs, you’ll remember Genuardi’s. It was Wegman’s before Wegman’s was here, but it was even better and much less corporate. They did everything well from prepared foods, to inventory, to exceptional customer service. Then Safeway bought Genuardi’s and they had no idea what the asset they bought was all about – they probably just looked at the financials. So they went and basically made all of their markets Safeways to increase profits (or so they thoughts), just with the Genuardi’s name, thinking people were stupid and wouldn’t notice and would keep throwing money at them. But they did. The new markets weren’t good and all the neat things about Genuardi’s (including the high quality foods and customer service) went away. They looked up 5 or 10 years later (I think it was closer to 5) and realized they had lost hundreds of millions of dollars on that deal because, quite literally, they didn’t mind the store. I think a version of this is going on in Baltimore with the Orioles. It’s already ugly and it’s about to get worse.

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  18. There are no easy answers here, but this team is aging fast and DD needs to make some bold moves to get this team younger by a little bit each year. They are never going to, nor should they, rebuild, but they need to gradually retool to younger players. They did a great job finding JT when they did, Wheels when they did, Schwarber when they did, and now they need to go find a way to get a bit younger, whether that’s with Miller and Crawford and Kemp to move away from guys like Bohm, Castellanos, and Kepler, or if that means finding the next Shane V in a Rule 5 or Werth coming off an injury, etc.

    DD is way smarter than I am, but running it back with Harper, Trea, and then re-upping JTR and Schwarber, is not the right answer in my opinion. We know DD wanted Crochet badly last year, who is a comparable pitcher that might be available this winter to go with Sanchez and Luzardo, and hopefully Wheeler and Nola?

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    1. I think JT comes back on a 2/28 deal, to coincide with Wheeler’s remaining contract. I think somebody will overpay for Schwarber and it won’t be the Phillies. Then the Phillies will make a run at Pete Alonso for 2/60 and a team option.

      Casty will get traded, Kepler won’t be back. I think Bader on a 2/25 and a team option is reasonable.

      I predict the Phillies will not sign another pitcher and pretty much give the last spot to Painter. Jean Cabrera will be the primary backup at Lehigh. Gage Wood will be fast tracked.

      DD will make a run at signing Luzardo to a 5/125 extension.

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  19. It’s hard for people living in or paying attention to the Philly market to understand Baltimore. Imagine Pittsburgh and its baseball market being 41 miles from Philadelphia. There was a time when people in the D.C. metropolitan area (and I was one of them) who traveled in droves to Baltimore to support big league baseball and its nearest version.

    Washington-Baltimore is 1 1/2 baseball markets being contested by 2 teams. In times of extreme good fortune (think Washington 2019), a team will thrive on the field and draw fans. Now for $10, I can get a ticket for any Nationals game I want. For $5, I can get a ticket to the AA Bowie MD Bay Sox. The economics of the region don’t favor the Nationals and it doesn’t favor the Orioles either. Whether ownership in either city is cheap or profligate, that’s the environment they’re working in. Pro football is a different beat but the NBA and NHL aren’t.

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    1. Strange as it may be, though the two teams –Nats and Os–are in close proximity, probably aligned similarly to the Cubs/WSox…..Dodgers-Angels….Yankees/Mets…..MLB has decided to make one team, the Nats, classified as a large market team, and the Os the small market, with all the perks that a small market teams gets, which includes the added shared revenue and the comp picks in Rd A or B. .

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    2. Strange as it may be, though the two teams –Nats and Os–are in close proximity, probably aligned similarly to the Cubs/WSox…..Dodgers-Angels….Yankees/Mets…..MLB has decided to make one team, the Nats, classified as a large market team, and the Os the small market, with all the perks that a small market teams gets, which includes the added shared revenue and the comp picks in Rd A or B. .

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  20. Wow, the guys on the Phiilies show are just brutal today about everything from Nick’s attitude and baseball intelligence, to the number of pitchers on the series roster, to the bizarre failure to utilize Suarez (Amaro thinks he must be hurt), to Schwarber’s disappearance for several years.

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  21. If Perry Minasian is still the GM come Nov, I’d probably offer Casty, Walker and Otto Kemp and pick up 60% of the $37M AAV of Mike Trout’s contract and bring Mike Trout to Philly.  Keep Bader and have an OF of Marsh, Bader, Crawford , Trout and Rojas/Wilson. Now any other logical owner of a last place team going nowhere, would let his GM do that deal. And at least let his superstar get one last hurrah at rhw chance of a WS.

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    1. Well, if you’re having a picnic, I guess it’s somebody’s job to bring the ants. If you’re Anaheim with the rights to the aging Trout, the antidote can’t be bringing in lifeless vets on expiring contracts.

      Any team offering 2 top 100 prospects for Trout offers more value than Castellanos/Walker/Kemp. Not every team can afford to spring for Trout, only serious contenders. The Angels have no business satisfying the sentimental instincts of Philly fans and could just as easily move Trout to the Cubs, Red Sox or even the Yankees.

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        1. Trout has a full no trade clause, so it’s not what the Angels want, it’s what he wants. 

          A few years ago, there would have been a lot of truth in that statement. Trout turned 34 during this season and he’s not a young 34. If he’s content in Anaheim, then what they both want could be the same. The moment he signals a willingness to waive, or selectively waive his NTC, he starts giving away his leverage.

          So long as Schwarber’s future is uncertain, I get the resurgent interest in Trout. Signing on for an older, less healthy version on a long term binding contract would be a bad, bad move. Which I think the Phils realize.

          Tying up INSUFFICIENT amounts of money in declining athletes on oppressive contracts is not the Phils’ problem. Quite the contrary.

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          2. Trout Season in Pennsylvania begins April 4, 2026! Creel limits and size restrictions for “Big Fish” should be discussed in March!😅

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  22. Hot takes…

    I’m not giving up on the season just yet… I can see it coming back to Philly and then it’s anyone’s game … (Yes, I actually have faith in Nola, not many do)

    If you ask me, and no one did.. but losing Wheeler really hurts, Bader as well, but above all at THIS point… Alvarado crushed this team. I think GM1 ends differently if you have Alvarado in the pen. No way Robertson comes back out for the 7th. Romano being a complete bust hurts a lot too. Really needed Hoffman-esque pitcher in these 2 games. If you at least have Alvarado you can get through this series .. or it’s at least 1-1 imho.

    Looking forward… Doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of answers on the FA market for hitting… so you gotta double down on pitching (Wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, Painter… and think about adding Kopech, Valdez, Flaherty, or Cease. Next year is Skubal .. which lines up with Wheeler in a way if there is a season. It’s tough as you have to wait to see Wheeler’s condition.

    Relievers you have Diaz, Willliams, Helsley, and Sir A.

    Unpopular move, but it you really want to infuse youth into this team, let Schwarber walk, and sign Tucker instead. Bring up Crawford for CF.. probably trade high on Marsh & whatever for Castellanos – resign Bader & bring in Tucker. Trade Bohm, and give Sosa full time until Miller is ready. Risky but … whatever … the offense stinks. Unless you want to resign Schwarber and put a butcher at 3rd base in Suarez. Thats what you’re going to get.

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  23. I don’t understand the desire to acquire Trout now. He’s not very good anymore. I mean, he’s OK, has a lot of power . . . but someone like Kyle Tucker would be vastly preferable.

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  24. Also, Trout’s contract is north of $35M AAV . . . Needs to be a 4-5 WAR player for that to be worthwhile. And that is unlikely.

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    1. I agree and this is what I was referring to as Trout not being worth that kind of money at this point in his career. I guess I should have specified.

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  25. If Mike Trout wanted to play elsewhere, he would have made his demands after the 2022 season when a 30 year old Trout posted 6.1 WAR.

    Mike Trout is now 34 years old, he’s a shell of his former self, AND he’s still owed 5/185! Nobody wants that contract. The Angels would have to eat at $80M just to get teams to pick up the phone.

    The Mike Trout ship has long sailed away.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Thank you for this. The Trout ship sailed into the straights of Pujols and then into the port of Cabrera. It’s done.

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    2. Phillies could easily eat 60% of that contract…$22M AAV…for those 5 remaining years. Angels would be on the hook for $15M AAV. And he would not cost any top tier prospects. And if he pressed the issue with Minasian and Moreno…he would be gone, since he does have a full NTC and I can only see one place where he may waive that clause.

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      1. Well, he does live in the Los Angeles area. Maybe he would consider a trade to the Dodgers? Wouldn’t even have to pack and move. I was just kidding as I started typing this. But maybe it is a consideration?

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  26. Yes, I concur. I thought the math was off. I have Trout at a little over $35.5M AAV with the Angels, a little over $37M AAV for a team that acquires him for the final 5 years (his age 34-38 years) of his contract (a little over $185.5M).

    Trout’s 121 OPS+ in 2025 was the worst of his career excluding his pre-ROY season. All his measurables are either worst or second worst of his career. So, yeah, “not worth it” might be an acceptable opinion.

    And after returning from a month-long absence due to injury on May 30th, Trout played DH exclusively except for a couple PH appearances. So, where does he play for us? (Trout played RF exclusively for the LAA before going on the IL last season.) DH in place of Schwarber? Thus, blocking Harper from DH for 5 seasons?

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  28. I’m convinced we’re going to be hearing Trout trade proposals for a decade after he’s retired.

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  29. sitting here watching the Yanks Blue Jays before the Phillies game tonight first time I’ve seen the Blue Jays and I cannot believe the resemblance between their manager and Kyle Schwarber similar look somewhere way of talking with the calmness, even similar in the movements of his head as he responds Any anybody else see that?

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  30. If I’m absolutely honest with y’all, I would like to see the “Bader love” dialed back a little. His recent career numbers show a gradual decline.

    After a career year in 2021 where Bader slashed .267/.324/.460/.785 and a 114 OPS+, he slashed

    .250/.294/.356/.650 with an 85 OPS+ in 2022,
    .232/.274/.348/.622 with a 69 OPS+ in 2023, and
    .236/.284/.373/.657 with an 86 OPS+ in 2024.

    Bader rebounded in 2025 with a .277/.347/.449/.796 and a 117 OPS+.

    Bader has a career slash of .247/.313/.401/.714 and a 96 OPS+.

    Of particular interest to me is Bader’s whole 2025 season not just a “hot” 28 games he had for one month with the Phillies.

    Bader with Minnesota this season, .258/.339/.439/.778 and a 113 OPS+.
    Bader with Philadelphia this season, .305/.361/.463/.824 and a 124 OPS+.

    Bader’s first 14 games with Philadelphia, .171/.271/.268/.539.
    Bader’s next 28 games with Philadelphia, .406/.447/.632/1.079.
    Bader’s final 8 games with Philadelphia, .133/.188/.133/.321.

    I’m not a big proponent of WAR, but for those who are, Bader posted

    3.2 WAR in 2018,
    2.3 WAR in 2019,
    4.1 WAR in 2021, and
    4.2 WAR in 2025.

    He posted

    1.3 WAR in 2022,
    0.6 WAR in 2023, and
    0.9 WAR in 2024.

    I appreciate Bader’s contributions this season. I don’t know if I’m ready to invest a lot of money or multiple years in a 32-year-old outfielder who might end up in a corner outfield spot with marginal HR power, part of another platoon, or relegated to the bench. (While Bader played exclusively in CF for the Phillies, he got most of his starts in RF for the Twins.)

    Not approving the mutual option will cost the Phillies $3M since Bader met several bonuses that raised his buyout from $1.5M. So, his $10M mutual option costs just $7M effectively and commits the Phillies to just one year. However, Bader might choose to turn down his end of the mutual option. In which case, I’m inclined to say, “Thank you and good luck”.

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    1. Have to disagree with you, Jim. The Phils are the 6th team Bader has played for since 2021. I can understand him pulling for the stability of a 2 year.deal.

      if the Phils had a loaded OF or a CF upgrade MLB ready, I could side with you. But Bader to me looks like a low cost, near term partial solution to a’lousy outfield’ problem.

      Like

      1. If he takes a short, low cost deal, then absolutely bring him back. But unless his injury requires surgery and we just don’t know it yet, he’s definitely declining his option. And I doubt we’ll be the high bidder in free agency.

        I agree with Jim that we shouldn’t pay him top dollar. We already need to figure out how to dump Castellanos, we don’t want to have to go through that again in a year or two if he slides back into his decline phase.

        Like

    2. Bader reminds me of Kike Hernandez which is to say the reg season numbers seem to bely the value of their spot on a roster. Analytics folk hate clutch numbers but if I’m not mistaken Bader’s 7th inning or later numbers are pretty good.

      Personally I wouldn’t care if we brought him back or we didn’t. Crawford should be a lock for CF if not an OF spot next season.

      Win or lose this season should have minimal bearing on how they move in the offseason.

      Hopefully they can recapture as much of the $38 million as possible from Casty and Walker and deploy that capital wisely. Either way its off the books for 2027 and that is the year I’d be eyeing up.

      Like

      1. The OF situation for 2026 will be interesting.

        Marsh is a lock to be back. He’s still under arbitration for 2 more years and he won’t be making much (~5M). Not sure why people want him traded.

        Both Kemp and Justin Crawford are near locks. Why? They both have nothing left to prove at AAA. Kemp’s best position is likely LF (pushing Marsh to RF).

        Could that be our starting OF in opening day? It’s possible. Casty is going to get traded or cut. Bader will likely get multiyear offers coming off a 4.2 WAR season.

        Rojas and Rincones Jr should be in the mix for OF backup jobs.

        Like

      2. Okay, here’s my two cents on Bader – who I would really like them to keep.

        First, Jim’s statement about Bader’s inconsistency is entirely valid. That, by far, is the biggest concern here and a risk they cannot entirely avoid.

        But, with that, I would try very much to sign him – hopefully to something like a 2 year, $24-26 million deal. And here’s why.

        To begin, as he did this year, Bader fits this team’s needs like a glove. He’s an outstanding fielder and can play anywhere in the outfield that you need him. He’s right-handed on team loaded with lefties. He’s clutch, has power and can get hot and be dominant. Our outfield otherwise remains thin. The only good outfielders we can project now are Marsh and Crawford, and Crawford will be an untested rookie. Bader could play 80 percent of the time in that outfield and maybe more and is also great insurance if Crawford struggles.

        Playing to a 4.2 WAR is huge and he also passed the eye test – he looked like a 4 WAR player. What’s critical is that he played to a 1.6 WAR on defense alone. Even if he just played right field he could be an enormous upgrade over Castellanos – on defense at least and probably also offensively.

        And, yes, there’s a big risk that his offense will go south – that’s why he gets $12-13 million a year and not $20 million a year. But my feeling is perhaps he’s just found another gear – just as Daniel Murphy did in 2015 with the Mets before they foolishly let him walk. Even if Bader just hits like he did in Minnesota (he was a 2.8 WAR player just in his time there), that would be a big upgrade for this team.

        I’m on team Bader. Love the guy.

        Like

        1. I don’t dislike Bader. If he winds up on the Phillies next season, fine. But, I can’t build future expectations based on what he did this season. His measurables the three previous season were terrible. The 2.8 WAR you would be happy to see him duplicate in 2026 is the combined WAR for the 3 previous seasons (1.3, 0.6, 0.9).

          Maybe he did flip a switch and continues to perform as he did this season. Then I hope we can sign him to a mutually agreeable short-term contract. But, maybe this season is an outlier and the regression of the past three seasons is more indicative of his future. Then, if we do sign him I hope it was to a mutually agreeable short-term contract.

          Like

          1. Jim, your research and way of thinking here is exactly what Howie Roseman would do – take the emotion out of it, look at the facts, and probably set some very rigid parameters on a deal that would or would not work for the team, and go from there.

            I think you are spot on, and I hope the Phils use this type of approach not just with Bader, but also with JTR, Playoff Ranger, and Schwarber.

            Liked by 1 person

  31. can’t wait for the “thompson is an moron for starting nola” to “Thompson is an idiot for pulling nola”

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    1. I just don’t get why he didn’t have Nola go through the entire order. I get having a quick hook, and even not wanting him to face the lineup a second time through so they could adjust. But Edman hadn’t faced him yet and Banks had already been warming up so he could have come in for Ohtani.

      But that’s a minor gripe and ultimately the homerun was just Ranger throwing a bad pitch.

      Like

        1. Well that’s why I mentioned Banks. Have Banks finish the inning for Nola (if you don’t want him facing Ohtani again), and then Ranger comes in for the next clean inning to take over.

          Who knows if that works better in the end, but that gives you one extra look at Ranger for Edman.

          Either way, if we lose tonight that move won’t be why. And that’s not the move that would lead to Topper losing his job.

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          1. No, they lose this game it’s from wasting scoring opportunities with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs.

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  32. Today’s game….3PM start time on the West Coast…..shadows should help Sanchez for a few innings…assume Top will go with him in this game.

    Glasnow is tough, but hopefully bats can stay alive

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    1. If the shadows help Sanchez they will also help Glasnow. Glasnow can be wild or struggle with command so hopefully our hitters have a plan to not be overly aggressive.

      Like

    2. If the shadows help Sanchez they will also help Glasnow. Glasnow can be wild or struggle with command so hopefully our hitters have a plan to not be overly aggressive.

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      1. You don’t know what will happen, but I LOVE that it’s Glasnow they are facing tonight. Glasnow, more than you’re average pitcher, can be a head case and meltdown. If something bothers him or he is off, he can completely lose effectiveness. That happened earlier in the year, when he was struggling with the mound at CBP and he just complete self-destructed – it was so bad that it was actually shocking. Glasnow can be had.

        Liked by 1 person

        2. Catch- I couldn’t agree more – Glasnow is a head case. He even got a little squirrelly the other day when he came in relief – he threw a few close pitches, they missed, and he seemed to become unnerved. If they can wait him out and don’t swing at pitches out of the zone – he will unravel.

          I saw that game earlier in the year and I was surprised he is so “loosely put together.” But then I have never liked him because he is a walking DL candidate, year in and year out.

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          1. However this season plays out, the off-season needs (some not new ones) are pretty clear.

            -OF: Identify the core and upgrade the rest. To me the core is Bader, Crawford and Marsh, unless he’s traded as part of an upgrade. Marsh offers value but he’s best playing a corner, not Cf, and lacks the power you’d like to see there. Retaining Kepler is imaginable. To me, retaining Castellanos is not. Could Turner be in the OF by 2027? Think about that now.

            -C: Phils can’t just run it back with Realmuto and Marchan and wait till the wheels fall off. A succession plan has to be set in motion with some new blood, even if J.T. is brought back.

            -BP: Recognize that Robertson is just a tire patch and Kerkering is uneven. Secure the best right-handed set-up man (Alvarado should be the lefty) available on the off-season market. You can do battle next year with a pen with Duran/Mr. X/Alvarado/Strahm/Kerkering/Banks/Mr. Long Man..

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            1. this is the offseason to go after bullpen upgrades,plenty out there. I’d like 2 arms to add… then possibly someone from the minors can step up.

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    1. Jim:

      Negative….I have not heard from him. He may be on the road in Indiana setting up his merchandise sales at country fairs. Weekends in the fall are big time of the year for that.

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        1. Happy to announce Don is OK, Thomson had him bedazzled with his in game strategy. Happy to report Don is day to day and will be back soon!😉

          Liked by 1 person

      2. Nola had a pitch to Ohtani at 95.3 mph and one to Betts at 95.1 mph.

        In his career, Nola has touched 96 mph nine times. Of course, three of those nine were when his brother Austin was batting, lol

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  36. We can blame Kerkering all we want but 4 hits in 11 innings is just not going to get it done. Top 3 go 1-14 after pounding the ball last night.

    Liked by 3 people

      1. I hope that in the circular firing squad that has begun surrounding this team, that Topper is spared ‘friendly’ fire. The Phils lost on the field’ not the dugout.

        It’s easy to see who stood up to the bright lights and who didn’t. Would have loved an injured Bader or a healthy Sosa to have been the hero tonight. Those 2 have some jam

        Liked by 1 person

    2. That’s my view too. Our big money hitters didn’t get it done all series. Harper had a terrible series. Missed pitches in several big spots. Bottom of the lineup was non-existent. Stott and Marsh looked overmatched all series. Losing Bader hurt. Losing Wheeler really hurt. We just didn’t hit well in games 1, 2 and 4.

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      2. This is what I mean when I say backups don’t matter. If the starters can’t get the job done, the team is not going anywhere.

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  37. I have no words to describe what I’ve just seen, a major league pitcher panicking like a little leaguer, but I do want to say this, you guys are fantastic and love reading all your comments every day throughout the year. Jim you do a phenomenal job and I will see all you guys next March. Hopefully Middleton will have the guts to do what needs to be done because there needs to be a severe makeover, this team is not good enough to do it

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The Phillies will be a lot different in 2026 just because of the impending FAs: Suarez, Romano, Schwarber, Realmuto, Kepler, Bader (likely).

      DD will have his hands full since he won’t be able to re-sign every one.

      Not only that, Castellanos likely wants out. And I’m not even sure if the Phillies want Taijuan Walker back either. For me, I would DFA both of them after the WS.

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    1. in fairness… it took the Dodgers a long time to break through. Kershaw was the poster child for Amazing seasons + postseason blowups. It’s weird…. I feel like the Braves of 22&23’ were harder matchups than the Dodgers.

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  40. Phillies pitchers showed up. They handed the dodger bats. Hard to believe they dominated Ohtani the way they did. Even Betts & Freeman.

    I don’t blame Kerkering. If im being honest, i was more concerned about a wild pitch from him. I think he found something, took a step forward…minus the obvious fielding/panic move. He’ll get better. I wish the bats weren’t so quiet. They missed a lot of fastballs from what I watched.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I agree 100%. Far too much attention is being put on Kerkering’s error. It happens. That’s not why we lost. Harper was terrible this series. Trae and Schwarber were non existent in games 1 and 2. Marsh and Stott were worthless. Marsh was terrible defensively too. To score 1 run in 11 innings in a must win game with all of that money in the lineup is the failure. That’s why we lost.

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      1. Could not agree more. I think if someone looked at this team for this entire season, maybe the last 2-3 seasons, and you categorized the opposing starting pitchers into two categories – good pitchers on good teams, like the ones you’d see in October vs all other pitchers, we’d see that this team’s variance in runs scored against those two groups is much greater than the norm across baseball, and this is why this lineup struggles this time of year.

        The question for you v1, is what do they do about it? Sometimes I think you can have too many “stars” and more guys with bat to ball skills, speed, defensive prowess, situational hitting, etc. When I think back to some of the Yankees teams in the late 90s that won alot of October games, they didn’t have alot of big power hitting stars, they got contributions from Posada, Tino Martinez, Bernie Williams, Scott Brosius, Charlie Hayes, Jim Leyritz, etc. Even a star like Derek Jeter was an all around player much more so than a Trea Turner.

        To me, I feel like if we free up Schwarber, Realmuto, Ranger, Bader, and whatever you can salvage of Castellanos’ contracts, you would have ~$75M that you could allocate 1 of 2 ways – resign Schwarber, Realmuto, and Bader, or you could spread that money across 5-6 guys, and I think this team needs 6+ new guys vs just bringing back 3 from this group.

        Would love to hear your thoughts on how we fix this lineup for future Octobers knowing that we are fairly locked in at least on Bryce and Trea.

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  41. Perhaps your level of disappointment is directly correlated to your level of expectation. Middleton and DD played it safe and the result mirrors that. I can’t say I blame them the cash machine keeps rolling at the bank.

    It was fun it was exciting down the stretch. I know I was at the game for Duran’s and Bader’s first night. It was a spectacle like I had never witnessed before since a boy at the 2nd game of the 80 WS.

    In investing they call it the contrarian view. I’ve held it since the 23 NLCS loss. It wasn’t popular probably still isn’t. Yet here we are.

    This is a pretty cool page as it highlights salary commitments by position by year https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/yearly

    2026 Starting pitching $102 mil

    Relief Pitching $30 mil

    Catcher $1.9 Mil

    IF $90 Mil

    OF $37 Mil* (*Bader for $10 mil is included in that) and we know that is not likely to be agreed to by Bader.

    DH $0

    Total $259 Mil

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    1. Some of these projections are off imho, like… Sosa 7.5mil-ish? …Bohm at 10mil? Marsh at 5.5mil? Those numbers are off. But yeah… the bill is come due.

      Like

        1. Let’s start with Sosa… 2025 he made 3mil. 7.5mil is more than double his current salary. I see closer to 5.5-6mil. Bohm regressed, not seeing how he gets a 25% raise. i can see 8mil, but ultimately I think he is definitely traded as of now. Marsh’s is close.. but he played less and is clearly a platoon player. His projection is more inline. I think he might also get traded. Trade high on him (theoretically). Personally I’d rather have Sosa & Bader than Bohm & Marsh at this point.

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          1. First, arbitration salaries for hitters rise faster than pitchers. In general, hitters will get closer to 50% raise even on average seasons. They really get a bump on monster seasons. These are my projections:

            Sosa $5.8M, Bohm $10.5M, Marsh $5M

            It’s really not that far off from what the projections are, and if you don’t like those numbers, you can always trade them or don’t offer them arbitration.

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    2. The reg season was a success…play-offs again were an earlier exit like these last three years….would not surprise me if Top is relived of his duties. Along with in New York ,Boone is let go. Phillies may need a new managerial voice.

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    3. “Played it safe” what are you talking about. They have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. They traded two top 5 prospects at the deadline for an elite closer. That comment makes no sense.

      They lost because their big money hitters didn’t perform. Not because the FO “played it safe.” That’s a crazy take.

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      1. Sure I can expand on a number of points on how they played it safe

        1. They could have held onto Abel and Tait and did something more minimalistic. But that would have been egregious to many including the stars on the team thus they did the “SAFE” thing and flipped a couple of decent prospects for a closer that had no bearing on their playoff fortunes.
        2. They could have promoted Crawford but too risky for them not knowing how a rookie would handle a playoff run
        3. They could have likely flipped Ranger and brought back a pretty good prospect or two but no the safe thing was keep him QO him and let him walk or maybe they end up overpaying him.
        4. Pretty much everything they did after 2023-2024 losses was to maintain the status quo and not upset the apple cart.

        JM and DD can put up the veil that they did all they could do. They carried a big payroll, they made some trades from their prospect pool etc. and a low level thinker would buy into that and blame the players the manager and even Kerkering.

        And they wouldn’t be wrong perhaps. Those guys didn’t get it done. They didn’t get it done last year and they didn’t do anything about it.

        They ran it back again thinking the result would be different. YAY!

        And please don’t @ me with their payroll when they alligatored armed the offseason spend with the likes of Kepler and Romano.

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        1. Dude, they went out and got the best closer available.

          Flip Ranger for prospects!?!?! Once Wheeler went down, there’s no way they move Ranger for prospects. And thank god they didn’t. He was a stud in Game 3.

          Who’s apple cart are you worried about upsetting? This team has gone 7 seasons in a row of winning more games than the previous year. They’re a good team that didn’t perform. They just didn’t “get hot” at the right time.

          Hindsight is 20/20. But yours is about 20/40.

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          1. Sorry Andrew I unplugged for a few days. I appreciate your points. We disagree obviously and that’s ok but going back to the last two off seasons I’ve been fairly consistent.

            Its not really hindsight as much as it is seeing how they lost in the post seasons and realizing they had glaring holes they should have addressed and they didn’t.

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  42. As a long time daily reader, but infrequent poster, (mostly due to lack of knowledge), I’ve come to really enjoy the wealth of baseball insights shared here. The community that has been created is wonderful respite from the “real” world. As the years have gone by and certain posters have come and gone I have regretted their departure. That being said, maybe I’ve missed something but did anyone every find out what happened to Hinke? I always found his comments to be interesting and thought provoking.

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    1. It’s a good time to be a young bat trying to crack this roster,to be Justin Crawford, Aidan Miller, Otto Kemp, Felix Reyes, Gabriel Rincones, Keaton Anthony. Door is, or should be, open for most to earn a roster spot including substantial playing time.

      We saw the symptom last night of a larger problem. The Phillies organization doesn’t produce enough quality pitching.

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  43. Jayson Stark had a great article on the team this AM: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6706207/2025/10/10/phillies-offseason-dombrowski-2026-roster/. I found interesting especially the last part about the difference between a group that wins a WS and one that doesn’t.

    It has been so much fun to watch this team the last 4 years–get better each year, bludgeon the NL East (including the Braves 2x in the playoffs), beat some of the best in the league (like the Dodgers) convincingly throughout the regular season. Our franchise has been the envy of baseball for nearly half a decade now. But they never won a World Series. They will absolutely need different voices if they’re to get over a hump and keep questing after the elusive WS in the Harper/Wheeler era.

    It’s really a shame. So many “what ifs” about this series. The pitching was excellent. We complained about our 1-3, but what did Ohtani, Mookie, and Freeman do? Not much. A few lucky breaks and we’re the ones celebrating after four games. The killer to me last night — intentionally walking Ohtani to load the bases. Why? Then there’s nowhere to put the next runner and the margin for error is lower. Ohtani had been god awful all series and you have your best reliever on the mound. I can’t justify that. We might’ve won 1-0.

    I hope they figure out a way to renew the excitement for next year. As sad as I am they couldn’t finish the job any of these seasons, I’ve enjoyed watching them immensely. We’re lucky they’ve been this good for this long.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. There were plenty of what ifs in the game and the series. I think Tac3 hit upon one further up in these comments, which was the absence of Alvarado. Personally, I’m hoping Alvarado doesn’t come back. Taking a banned substance is inexcusable. Likewise saying he did so innocently. Every player knows nor to take any kind of med without clearing it through the team medical staff, even over the counter stuff.

      Like

  44. Well, the thing I complained about all year was the hitting and, other than that magical stretch in September, this was the biggest problem all year and nothing has changed. I actually believe that, if Bader had not been hurt, the outcome here may have been different. These teams were so narrowly separated in talent and performance – a big hit here or there of even one player could have been the difference. I also lay a lot of blame at the feet of Topper. I felt all game they were going to lose, but when Kerkering came in, I pretty much knew they would lose and was just trying to imagine how it would happen (would have never guessed such a choke moment, but it also didn’t shock me). But there were terrible managerial decisions made in other games too and, again, in a short series like this, one or two bad moves can make all the difference in the world. I really like Topper, but this series was his worst ever.

    That said, the hitting, or lack thereof, is the main reason they lost. They need to accept this and update the roster. The existing cast couldn’t hit when they need to and the main guys are aging and declining. Running it back with all the position players is not an option. If they go there, the same outcome will inevitably follow – lather, rinse, repeat. It’s time for them to shake up the roster.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. No disputing the lineup needs a shakeup. Everyone should be on the table other than Harper/Turner because there’s just no way they get moved. I’m not even sold on resigning Schwarber. Topper had some bad judgment in this series no doubt. He’s not the best manager and maybe they make a change. But I doubt he’s the problem either. When the lineup wasn’t performing he sat Casty, regardless of the blow back. The team improved. He’s also one of a handful (at most) managers that made the playoffs each of their first 4 years at the helm. Not sure what they’ll do with Topper, but I don’t view him as the culprit for 3 years of disappointment (I don’t count the ’22 WS but that was a success and they overachieved that year). I won’t be upset if they bring him back I guess is what I’m saying.

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      1. The December Rule 5 draft marks the first deadline-imposed occasion to re-shape the 40-man roster going forward. I think the Phils are at zero risk of losing anybody.

        It’s pretty easy to put together a protected list of 35. Even if the Phils went crazy with early free agent signings or other moves in advance of the winter meetings (unlikely), protecting 40 should not be hard.

        No team will want the Rule 5-eligible prospects the Phils elect not to protect.

        The absence of hard decisions on whom to protect makes a statement about lack of quality depth in the higher ranks of the farm system.

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      2. Say what you want about the Top 3… but –

        • Is Bohm a #4 for ANY legitimate Championship team?
        • Is Marsh a #5 for ANY legitimate Championship team?

        Team is old, losing power.

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    2. Catch, …… I was going to comment, but I would just be an echo! IT’S THE BATS …. the bats …. the bats! If no big changes iccur ….. then nothing changes cause this is who they are. I have no sacred cows, anyone is fair trade meat. Time to prune the vegetation …. let the games begin.

      They could cut the manager loose, but he isn’t the reason we went down in flames ….. it was on the players … the BIG bucks and underachievers.

      Like

  45. I really value Matt Winkelman’s observations. They’re always well thought out and objective. His thoughts on the series loss give great perspective on just how close this was and that’s why it’s so gut wrenching. https://philliesminorthoughts.com/day-after-devastation-thoughts/.

    The one thing he misses is that some managerial decisions and umpiring impacted this series too. I get those aren’t really player personnel things that are the focus of his article, but still. Everyone will point to the Stott bunt or having Robertson start that inning in Gm 1, but I just cannot get over walking Ohtani to load the bases when Ohtani had been handled so effectively and your best reliever was ready to attack him. No margin for error in a game that was separate by 1 run. I still hate it today.

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  46. The question was already posed to Top last night, with one year left on his contract…….are you worried about being relieved as the manager.

    His reply….no, I am worried about the people who are devastated in that locker room.

    I am sure Middleton will not want to let him go….not so sure on Dave D.

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  47. If they don’t resign Schwarber and next season the team likes homerun power, people here are going to bitch. If Suarez wins 15 games with another team and pitches to a low ERA, posters will bitch. If Realmuto moves along and the team doesn’t replace him with a top tier catcher, many of us will go crazy. This year’s team was built to win a playoff spot, not the World Series. No matter what the front office does, most of us will find something to bitch about.

    The Phillies have always been my favorite team across all sports. I follow the Celtics, the Patriots and I’m a big, big UConn basketball fan but the Phillies give me the most pleasure. When it gets to this time of the year, I’m exhausted. I wish they could win the WS every year but I’d gladly take one at least every decade or so. It’s not easy being a Phillies fan but I am.

    The posters on this site are so knowledgeable and respectable people. Jimbo has carried the ball and handed off to all of us with a little bit of sternness on occasion. I’m proud to be a Phillies Phan and to be part of this website. The team lost last night and was eliminated again but the sun still came up this morning. Whether they win or lose, I still have to get up every morning and go to work. Oh, wait. I almost forgot. I’ve been retired 2 decades. I don’t have to go to work. Hang in there, guys.

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    1. Philly didn’t burn when Jayson Werth was lured away by more money in free agency. I expect the city will survive this free agent season.

      I think many of us would not offer blank checks to any of our free agents and realize the Phils can be outbid.

      I do believe that Schwarber hasjust had the best season he can ever expect to have. I think Realmuto’s best seasons are all in his past. And I don’t see a reason to believe Ranger will ever top 160 innings pitched in a regular season.

      Wouldn’t mind seeing any of the 3 back on sensible contracts. In a crazy bidding war, I wouldn’t mind losing so long as the team has a Plan B for any contingency.

      Like

      1. Fighterflea, part of the issue imo… is the Phillies already have many of the top FA out there. There is no solution to catcher. Zip. It’s JT … it just is. Schwarber I think you can argue will age well, but he does clog up the versatility of the team since he is a permanent DH. Plus, if you don’t resign him .. the team has a severe lack of power imo. So it’s Schwarber, Alonso, or Suarez. I’d rather have Schwarber out of that bunch. Then its… would you rather have Schwarber or Tucker?

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        1. I wonder how active they will be on the trade market, specifically w catching. The problem being – what do they have to trade? Like, I’m guessing Escobar for one of the royals or mariners catchers is probably not enough.

          Other than that, no reason not to run most of it back while trying to be creative. At least one of the 3 FA will leave, netting a comp pick. I bet they try to move casty. Try to move walker. Listen on bohm/marsh.

          Rotation: beginning of year

          Sanchez, Nola, Luzardo, Painter and Walker/McGarry/Cabrera FA pitcher. Eventually Wheeler.

          IF – Stott ar 2nd, Turner at SS.

          OF – Crawford

          somewhere – Harper, Kemp, Sosa

          bullpen: Duran,Strahm, Alvarado, kerkering, banks.

          Bullpen mix: Harper, FAs, Johnson, Lazar

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        2. In my off-season, L let the big spenders go after Kyle Tucker and focus on re-signing Kyle Schwarber. Then my moves focus on getting the team younger and stronger from the right hand batter’s box.. I extend Luzardo and pick up the option on Alvarado. I sign Bader to a 2-year deal. He’s earned it. And extend Kepler for 1 year.

          I’m prepared to let go of Realmuto and Ranger. Can’t pay everybody and the team needs to get younger.

          I make 2 trades. Castellanos and whatever part of his salary the team has to eat for what prospect(s) the Phils can get. The trade partner would be a team looking for a DH and emergency-only corner outfielder.

          I’d send Marsh, Bohm, Stubbs and a pitching prospects (not Painter or Wood) to the Orioles for Adley Rutschman and Tyler O’Neill. O’Neill’s salary doesn’t fit the structure of the rebuilding O’s and other teams coveting Rutschman probably wouldn’t take on the O’Neill money. Topper talks constantly about “back of the baseball card” performance from veterans and were the Phils to get that from these 2, this deal would work.

          Add through free agency the best right-handed set-up man available.

          Sosa holds down 3B while Miller prepares exclusively at 3B at AAA in anticipation of a mid-year call up or a 2027 MLB debut.

          My 2026 OF includes Bader, O’Neill, Crawford and Kepler with Kemp and Wilson as IF/OF reserves. If Crawford can play every day in LF, you platoon O’NeillandKepler in RF. Crawford becomes the #2 CF on the depth chart spelling Bader as needed. He’s an upgrade there over Marsh.

          With right-handed bats Turner, Bader, Rutschman, O’Neill, Sosa, the Phils won’t get a constant diet of left-handed opposing pitchers.

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          1. I’d love Rutchsman but I don’t see the O’s trading him. They are in an enviable position with him and Ballo? (SP?) Their newly promoted catcher is a nice piece to have. They can easily make that work.

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        3. Your statement about JT is exactly why he’s going to sign somewhere else for a value and/or duration that is going to shock us all.

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          1. Fair point – I’d bet someone is willing to give him 20mil a season for sure. Teams are foaming at the mouth.. but i bet he resigns for 15mil a season. How can you not want to catch this SR? The BP? You know the Phillies are going to be going for it. Pretty tough for him to walk away imho. The teams he’d go to already have catchers imo, so … he’s unlucky in that regard

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    2. I feel your pain. Agree with you on taking one every decade or so, next season will be 18 years. Perhaps with the all-star game in Philly for the 250th America birthday, the mojo will carry over to also a championship in the fall.

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  48. I’ll try to keep it short, but stay with me:

    2022… the team way overachieved. Basically, it arrived early imho. For example, no Duran, Ranger still maturing

    2023 – 1st real shot. Biggest missed opportunity imho.

    2024 – didnt handle the bye well. .whatever lost season

    2025; – Injuries finally got them + arguably the best team in baseball mathchup in the Dodgers

    2026- I bet they run it back + sum.

    If not … Why are you carrying a pitcher with a 42million dollar salary? Are you going to trade Wheeler? You can’t until the deadline. So you either bring those guys back or you are trading a whole bunch of people. (Wheeler, Luzardo, Kerkering, Bohm, Marsh, Stott, Alvarado, Walker, Casty, and … maybe even at that point, Painter)

    or … You’re adding to Schwarber & Realmuto. The team is clearly short 2 bats… So you’re either bringing in Tucker or Alonso in addition. It’s also clearly short 2 bullpen arms. It’s too rich in SP.

    Lasty curveball would be to reconfigure the team is moving Harper back to the OF. This team currenly has Zero power with Schwarber as a FA.

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    1. This team currently has Zero power with Schwarber as a FA.

      HRs are a critical dynamic for a winning play-off team…..this year the the top three teams leading the league were the Yankees, Dodgers and Mariners, The league average is 188 HRs,

      Seven of the play-off teams were above league average ….Yanks, Dodgers, Mariners, Cubs, Phillies , Tigers, and the Jays…….and five below league average…..red Sox, Cleveland, Reds, Brewers, and Padres.

      So it can be done making the play-offs…..but many other factors come into play.

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        1. fair points Romus. League average was 188, Phillies finished with 212, thanks mainly to Schwarber’s efforts. Without him, they are at just 156, 17% below league average. For 2026, im assuming Schwarber, Realmuto, and Casty totals are off the books, their collective replacements would struggle to get the team back to league average.

          This offense should’ve been good enough, they were 2nd in the league in hits, a top 5 in Total bases, and near the league low for hitting into double plays… tough not to bring them back… “if” you want to improve. Casty needs replaced but they gotta get Schwarber or Tucker in here.

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    2. I’m not the biggest Hoskins guy but if he’s in that line-up over Rojas in 2023 (as the team was designed) then they probably win the pennant at least. This team was missing the big RH bat that castellanos thinks he is. They need some protection for Bryce.

      This year that Bader injury killed them. I know Castellanos had some big hits but the defensive downgrade probably cost them in game 2 and I would’ve had Bader facing Snell/Glasnow. It is what it is, this is the second time in this run I felt like they lost to the superior team. 2023 and 2024 hurt the most because the Phillies (on paper) were better than both teams and just couldn’t get out of their own way.

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  49. Schwarber:

    “…..These guys know how I feel about them. I got a lot of respect for the guys in here, the organization, the coaching staff, everyone, top to bottom. This is a premier organization, and a lot of people should feel very lucky that you’re playing for a team that is trying to win every single year, and you have a fan base that cares, and you have an ownership that cares, you have coaches that care.”

    Translation……It was great while it lasted, will miss you guys.

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  50. Wondering about Harper.

    He looked all year like he was distracted and maybe didn’t have his old enthusiasm. The stats showed something wrong: He well under performed his norm and he especially didn’t come through as “The Showman” when he had his opportunities, as in the Dodger series.

    So:

    1. Is he just wearing down from years of all-out play combined with aging?
    2. Has he lost his sense of specialness with the Phillies not renegotiating his contract to remain king of the hill and with Schwarber taking on that role?
    3. Did he just have an off year?
    4. Or was he distracted by some matter we don’t know about?

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    2. After that last week in July, Harper’s blow-up with the Commish in the locker room , seem to further make him distant and aloof. Though his second half slash was not bad…but for him he probably thought otherwise……..262/.338/.862

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  51. My backseat GM take for 2026: Losing Bader for the playoffs was tough. He was this year’s Jean Segura. Big positive personality, veteran skills and an offensive spark especially in clutch situations. I’d bring him back in center if possible, bring up Crawford to play six days a week and platoon Marsh and Castellanos in right. Kemp off the bench to rest Crawford and for infield depth if an injury happens again. Stott and Sosa at second. Turner at shortstop and platoon Harper with new arrival Pete Alonso at 1B/DH. Schwarber can go elsewhere since he’s two years older than Alonso and not as versatile. Find a left handed free agent to come off the bench and possibly cover for Crawford if he struggles. Maybe Mickey Moniak (?). Realmuto is toughest call. 35 years old but a thin market. 2 years for 26 million? If no deal, hopefully Marchan is ready with Stubbs? For pitchers, Suarez gets a QO and no more than 3/100. If Suarez goes, Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, Walker, free agent ace and hopefully Painter or even McGarry. Wheeler is such a big question mark. This will sound crazy but maybe to help him reset, give Kerkering a chance to be a starter in spring training which he did in college. Maybe until Wheeler is back. Lock up Luzardo for five more years if possible. He’s only 28 and younger than Sanchez. Bullpen is Banks, Strahm, Duran, Kerkering, Alvarado is a big question mark but maybe he’s back since it’s a thin market, he’s only 30 and playing for another contract. Free agent Phil Maton might be a good fit. Moises Chace could be back by June and worth a shot. Rob Thomson returns. How does that sound?

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    1. Well thought out. BUT…..I want no part of Castellanos, his comments about his benching and his attitude all but sealed his fate, good riddance. Kerkering “basically” has 2 pitches and won’t be a good starter IMHO. Not on board with Thomson coming back. I know he’s the not the reason they lost but he makes very questionable decisions, time for a new voice. Would also like Alonso and to let Kyle walk. He’s younger, adds versatility and would definitely be less expensive.  JT has to take a VERY team friendly deal or pursue a trade for a younger catcher. Like Jayson Stark said, this time the Phillies can’t run it back. 

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      1. I think there is an argument to run it back, but adding. IMHO this team was better than the dodgers, at full strength. Run it back without Casty, Marsh, Romano, Walker, and a few others. Add Bader and a legit RF (like the LAD’s Hernadez, Toscar) … I think it’s a different team. Add in Crawford, this team could have another want to score runs thats not hitting the long ball. It’s tough, but for sure, i bring back Realmuto. To me, he is the biggest lock of the FAs, since he basically calls ALL the games. They relied to heavily on him. He will be back for that reason alone, offense be damned.

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    2. Backseat GM has a good ring to it. Right handed Alonso at DH is not all that bad but it depends on what they do in the outfield. I do think parting with some high strike out players is the way to go. That would include Casty and Marsh in OF, Crawford would change the make up of the line up. Bader is one I would bring back and even Bellinger would improve those SO numbers.

      Infield will likely stay the same with Miller starting in AAA as first call up.

      Catcher, I don’t see them not bringing back JT.

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    1. A name I haven’t heard associated with Philly in free agency is Michael Kopech. A former 1st round draft pick, he’s had an injury history (more knee than arm, of late) which probably bumps him down on a deep Dodgers’ staff.. But has pitched well when healthy. I’d sign him to a deal for the pen with incentives for mile markers achieved, such as innings pitched. To me he has a Jeff Hoffman vibe.

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    1. Do not think Middleton and Dombrowski will hire Preston to manage his first team ever. I think he stays in the exec management area and not down on the field. He could be the guy to replace Dombrowski….it will be either PM or Fuld.

      If the Yankees relieve Boone……if Top does go, as a few in the media are hinting at, I can see Middleton and Dombrowski hiring Boone.

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  54. Topper is not the problem. You can replace him if you want to, but he isn’t the guys being paid millions that can’t hit in prime time or score in crunch time with runners in scoring position or throwing to the wrong base when it matters most.

    He’s not perfect when knowing when to put the hook on a starter or reliever but, I thought his strategy for the last game was pretty good.

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  55. Romus, Jim, Rocco. Hi guys. I am fine. Thanks for concern. Been busy last few days since no Phillies to watch. Grandson was home for visit with surgeon and his 19th birthday today. He is doing well. Can begin limited hitting now. No throwing yet for the time being. Hoping to be cleared in January for full participation. Family reunion today and some RV transporting yesterday. Plus, IU football. I have lots of thoughts on Phillies last week and going forward but time to let the dust settle some. I have mentioned to Ruff that I made a list of 15 who I think will be on Opening Day 26 roster from playoff roster. Think this go round we may see some serious reshuffling of roster but who knows.

    Romus. I sent Ruff a pic of the TJ scar. Pretty significant. About 5 inches.

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    1. Don…welcome back. Glad to hear your grandson is recuperating well. Yes roster may get reshuffled among other things. Coaches and managers are getting fired in PA….Penn State fired their 11 year coach James Franklin….frankly, long overdue IMO. Rocco I am sure is happy.

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      1. Rocco is so funny. Tell him the Harvestore’s are no longer used these days. Kind of like the 25 Phillies. History.

        Kid is doing real well. I texted Ruff this morning it would not surprise me to see Franklin, Topper and Tom Allen soon exiled to Treasure Island. Franklin got there first. Boone may join as well. Franklin has 50M reasons to be smiling tonight plus he does not have to go to work tomorrow. He may be calling Jimbo Fisher.

        We spoke last year about remaining fairly status quo. Phillies did and basically same result. Ruff knows what I think of last week. Amazing you hold Ohtani to 1 hit though ended a game winner and lose 3 or 4. Almost identical results as last year. Just different names. I was told long ago doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results in not a good thing.

        Simply time to sit back and see what shakes out going forward. One of my Cubs buddies texted me “wait till next year”. Think I have heard that before as well.

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    2. I hear that, but is it insanity if they move assets away from the SR to the lineup? For instance, instead of re-signing Ranger, take that money to sign Alonso. Tucker, or Suarez at the same time brining back Schwarber & Realmuto.

      Is there enough money… its tough when you have one player making 42 milion

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      1. I think there’s a price tag the Phils associate with bringing back Schwarber, Realmuto, Suarez, Bader,, possibly. Each will hear that the Phils remain in ‘win now’ mode. I expect that that message and the money available will not be e3nough to retain Suarez, even if he knows there’s a slot for him to start the 2026 season.

        If the Phils can move Castellanos and some part of his contract, that’s motivation to do a RF upgrade. If the Phils re-sign Schwarber, they remain left-hand heavy. So no Bellinger or Tucker for me. Only then do I look to Alonso even though it means moving Bryce back to RF. He no longer stirs the drink but might be happy with Alonso hitting behind him. Don’t want Bregman for the price tag he carries.

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        2. As amusing as it is to have Alonso be that RH power bat AND steal away a Met, I agree that Alonso is not a fit. If we are going to sign a full-blown DH, I’d stick with Schwarber and look for that righty bat somewhere else.

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        3. Do not want Tucker and $400M. Want 2 – 3 guys at $40M per year TOTAL who can bat 4-5-6.

          Compare Phils to Dodgers lineup. Cross off 1-2-3 in order.

          • 4th – Freeman (24 HR / 90 RBI) v. Bohm (11 / 59)
          • 5th – Smith (17 / 61) or Marsh (11 / 43)

          Lose Schwarbs and you lose 35 HRs + 100 RBIs (assume ’25 was outliner). Where do you recover that?

          Is Kevin Long to blame? Think Dodgers are proof – roster / talent often exceeds a Manager / Coach.

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        4. Alonso is right handed… but i dont get the sense he would turn it on in the playoffs. Seems to fade under the pressure. My nephew is a Mets fan so i’ve had to observe him from afar … can’t say I’d be a believer but I would damn well hope he does if signed. I’d sign Tucker over him. Wheeler salary comes off the books soon, would be nice to see them overlap.

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    3. I never understood that expression. No athlete or surgeon or skateboarder starts out as elite. They do the same thing over and over again for years and expect different results and they eventually do get different results. That’s the whole point of practice. To go from bad to average to (if they practice enough and have talent to improve enough) elite.

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      1. In general, only a few players will improve in any given season and it’s mostly the younger players. The Phillies are one of the older teams in the league.

        Realmuto will be 35 in March and just posted one of the lowest WARs of his career. He’s declining already.

        Schwarber will be 33 in March and just posted his best WAR season ever. What are the odds he can keep this up?

        Suarez is 30 and posted one of the highest WARs of his career. But he has a history of poor conditioning and back issues, and he’s never pitched 158+ innings in any season. And he has Scott Boras as his agent.

        All this and the Phillies had another early exit in the playoffs. Do the Phillies really want to re-sign the above 3 players (who will be 1 year older) and hope for a better result? Or should the Phillies move on and try to get younger?

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      2. What about trying to teach an old dog new tricks……try teaching the Fab Five plate discipline as their approach their mid-thirties. Three of the five are back again…..the other two is an unknown now,

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          1. I don’t know the postseason numbers, but I feel like I heard a lot about how much our guys improved on swinging at pitches in the strike zone as opposed to chasing. They went from like, 28th to 16th in chase rate.

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      3. Only we’re not talking about practice. We’re talking about players that pretty much are who they are and at their age are probably not going to get better.

        But even in practice I’ve seen players practice bad fundamentals over and over again and wonder why they don’t improve.

        And then there is the whole talent or natural ability thing. For some sadly, it doesn’t matter how much they practice.

        But I get what you are saying. Some can make a change or tweak their mechanicals and improve their results.

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  57. Ruff said to post this. So here goes. Here is something to ponder going forward. Since Game 2 of the 2023 NLCS this core group of Phillies have lost 10 of 13 playoff games. Includes losing 5 of the last 6 at CBP. All the advantages for success were in their favor in all of these series.

    Reasons. In the 3 wins Phillies I believe scored 8, 8 and 6. In the 10 losses not too many crossed the plate. Second failure has been the BP inability to hold onto narrow late leads in several of these games. Finally, very poor manager decisions at times especially in games 1 and 2 of this NLDS. How could David Roberts be option 1 after a week off. Absolutely amazing to me that this staff felt the best place to use Duran who is one of the better BP guys in the league was in the 9th trailing first by 2 runs and then by 3 runs. Roberts was pitching a shutout vs Topper till he tried to sneak Treinen in Game 2.

    Glancing above at posts seems some think the band needs to be brought back again. I think some major changes need to be made to the roster. I gave Ruff my 15 I feel will be on 26 Opening Day roster. Others to me are WC. My only strong feeling one way or the other is that Casty does not return in 26. Suppose anything else is possible.

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  58. I will take a whack at “If I was the GM”:

    Resign Realmuto. 2 yr/$30m. While he is an average hitter at this point, his defense is still very good, and should be for at least another couple years.

    Attempt to resign Schwarber. 3 yr/$95m sound right? If he gets 4 years somewhere else, let him go, and we sign one of the lefty bats.

    Trade Castellanos. IMO the biggest issue for the Phillies is they have never replaced Hoskins as the righty bat behind Harper. Bohm and Castellanos are not that. Doubt we get much, but I think it’s time.

    These three made $65m this past season. The drop in Realmuto’s salary goes towards Ramon Laureano. My outfield is Marsh LF, Crawford CF, and Laureano RF. I like the idea of signing Bader as a 4th outfielder/platoon with Marsh. Also, Luis Robert is likely going to be available as well, and we know how our FO likes him.

    As far as the infield goes, I plan that this is Bohm’s last year, with Aidan Miller showing up in 2027. Sosa is my Super-sub. Leave the rest as-is.

    As far as pitching, Ranger is going to get crazy money, I let him walk. I expect Painter to take his spot, and sign a 6th starter for depth (Dustin May?). Wheeler, Sanchez*, Nola, Luzardo*, Painter are a very strong rotation.

    I pick up Alvarado’s option. BP consists of Duran, Alvarado*, Strahm*, Kerkering, Banks, plus 2 more arms: A high-leverage righty, and a cheap low-leverage guy not named Romano.

    Yeah, we are running mostly the same team back out. But a RH power bat that pushes Bohm and Marsh down a spot should bolster the lineup, and the return of Alvarado instantly helps the bullpen. Maybe its not enough, but I think it’s realistic.

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    1. Good analysis.

      I am at a crossroads between trying to sign Dustin May or Walker Buehler….both coming off TJs and both one more year removed.

      As far as Casty and the overall consensus that people want him moved……picking up 50% of the remaining $20M should be doable…..now just have to find a buyer.

      Luis Robert is under a CLUB option…..$20M if exercised by the WSox…..I am leaning that they will not do it, and do a 10% buy-out…..so he becomes a free agent. Will have to see what happens with him in the next three weeks,

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    2. Through expensive, long term contracts, some with no- trade-clauses, the Phils have created a rigid architecture that is not susceptible to a tear down. So the discussion is only in the realm of major versus minor remodeling, with preserving the structure no longer an option.

      The Phils formerly prioritized the signing of free agents recommended by Harper. So we got Schwarber, Turner, Realmuto. All this to create a fit, a winning fit. In thinking of what the Phils might do now, I look for clues from what they’ve done.

      Christopher Sanchez showed a desire to stick long term. I have to think that Ranger Suarez was offered terms on a multi-year before Sanchez ever was. Ranger had the tenure. And I think the trade for Luzardo — with the giving up of a valuable prospect — was done only after the Phils realized that Ranger would not be an easy re-signing. There’s no reason to think that Ranger will be an easy signing now. In a contract year, the Phils got the best that Ranger has to offer.

      Now there are intimations that Bader and Kepler are interested in re-upping. Maybe J.T. does, too. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phils first moves are to ink Bader and Realmuto, maybe before the winter meetings. Whether those are fan preferences or not, it seems in keeping with the current Phillies’ way.

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  59. ty Terry Pegula and John Weinstein( romus real name? They picked up most of franklins contract. We are

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    1. Hah……and where ever you are former PSU AD Sandy Barbour…..thanks for nothing. She virtually ruined the program giving him that ridiculous contract since he proved he could not win a big game…..Overall against ranked teams: 12-26.….Against top-10 teams: 4-21.

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  60. Everyone wants to get rid of Casty, yet the man has had better moments in the last 2 playoff series then the $30m guys.

    I’m still waiting for Marsh to arrive… for Strahm to stand up.

    We have a collection of good players, guys who like winning.

    I want a collection of guys who hate losing.

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    1. Casty did get a couple of clutch hits in those 2 games Phillies had a chance to win while others did not. Since it seems Topper is on the way back, I now would not be surprised to see Casty back. Of the high-priced guys, I still see him as the most likely to be moved. I mentioned a while back not be surprised Bader and Kepler return. Neither are on my 15 for Opening Day but could see them.

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    2. His inability to field his position cost them a crucial extra base on Freddie Freeman’s double. If that’s 1st and 3rd vs 2nd and 3rd that inning is a lot different.

      I’m somewhat OK bringing him back if you can’t work out Schwarber’s deal and you just let him DH but it’s time to admit it was a poor signing and move on.

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    1. Romus. Lots of polls are incorrect. Kidding. He is ok but I was very disappointed in how he handled BP and especially Duran. He basically wasted him in the playoffs. Having a week off just magnifies the failure to have a solid plan for “what if”… He is what he is.

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      1. I suppose next season is his season to prove this team can go the distance. It probably is a probation season since it is his last year on his contract and an extension was not offered, so he could be a lame duck manager.

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      2. Don…guess who is on a list for the next PSU HC……Hossiers’ Curt Cignetti even with his signed extension contract last year…… an eight-year contract. The deal doubled his salary to $8 million annually. Not sure how that would work……inter-conference and all.

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        1. In today’s climate one never knows. I do not think Cignetti considers leaving. He has it all at IU now. Like Knight for a long time, he walks on water now. They have also got some big-time donors on board now. The Biggest being Mark Cuban. He had never donated to athletics till Cignetti. But Cignetti is a Pennsylvania guy so one never knows. One thing is certain he has some really good players there now. PSU still may be their most difficult game left on schedule. Most likely IU vs OSU in Big10 title game.

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  62. As a fan, why would I invest IF they run it back with the same gang… that is the gang that has gotten progressively worse in every playoff series.

    If the last play / Orion error was Game 7 of World Series, then sure I could support it – as they proved they could get thru 3 individual series.

    This team – and I mean the playoff Phils less Hoskins and Segura – has won 2 of 5 series – and – 0 for their last 3 series.

    Find me guys who hate losing.

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  63. I hear a lot of complaints… and just shooting from the hip.. if Middleton REALLY believes this is the BEST team the Phillies have ever had.. Why would he not run it back?

    I think the clues are out there. Now, its late and I worked a crazy amount of hours, but I expect close to the same team – Minus Castellanos (need his money for Schwarber), Walker, Ranger, Romano (LOL im sure he’ll be lights out in 2026) and the following 3 are trade bait imo – Marsh, Bohm, and Sosa. Sosa only because he might get something good in Return like a BP arm.

    Wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, Painter is what this team will ride with in 2026. I’d bet dollars to donuts we see a way better Nola.

    I’ll note, I have heard rumblings about people souring on Painter, which would a shame since he had the stuff pre TJ, if true… wondering if BP spot would help his career. Maybe G Wood leap frogs him, but will see. It will be nice to infuse this team with hungry young players.

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  64. Jim – Amaro suggested Phillies are exploring moving one of the big contracts. Just bold predictions on his part or is this team considering moving someone like Harper?

    not a popular take, but I’m not a huge Harper fan, so wouldn’t mind seeing them move on.

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    1. I think the biggest contracts the team will move would be Casty (20M) & Walker (18M) if they find a taker. Harper, Turner, and Nola are big contracts but seriously doubt they would trade any of them.

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      1. FWIW Jayson Stark is convinced that the Phillies will do something really big in the offseason.

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          1. can pair Harper and trout together in LA but on angels lol they can miss the playoffs together and pad their stats. I want winners.

            reminder the nationals won WS after Harper left

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            2. Please, God, no Trout. If you’re going to spend big money on a player, you don’t want someone who has a big long-term contract (2031), whose production has been declining precipitously, and who is frequently injured for long periods of time. We don’t need an Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera situation and that’s what you could easily get with Trout.

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          2. No idea if anything happens but nothing would surprise me. Surely, they know what this group is now capable of doing. Dodgers are now 6 wins from the repeat. I will not be surprised if they do it in no more than 8 games. Phillies and Dodgers most likely the 2 best teams. Phillies had their chances in those first two games and even game 4 had the lead. Very disappointing in how this playoff played out.

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        2. I agree that something really big is quite possible.

          I think Schwarber is going to be ridiculously expensive and will want at least a 5-6 year deal. I could see the Phillies signing Tucker and Alonso, which would make their offense both more potent and more balanced (in this scenario Schwarber does not sign here). If they do that, I think they would obviously move Castellanos and probably Walker (although with Suarez likely leaving he does have some usefulness) and would not replace the lost salary of Romano. I think they probably have to eat about $13-15 m of the Castellanos deal and probably $9 million of the Walker deal and they use some of that money to re-up Realmuto (for 2 years) and obtain bargain basement starting pitching depth (Buehler and someone else) or maybe they just say “screw it” and leave Walker be for now knowing he can give them innings when needed (there are worse alternatives).

          I can also see them signing Luzardo to an extension. If they don’t sign Ranger (and I think they won’t), the sooner they can get Luzardo under contract, the better.

          Under the above scenario, I see some really important promotions in the near future, including Crawford, Miller and Painter – not all at once, but probably before the end of May or June. I think they would consider trading Bohm if they could, but I think the outside interest is, understandably, very small.

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          1. My sense is that, to sign Alonso, you’ll need to pay $150m/5 years – not as bad as it sounds given his production history and the fact that he is two years younger than Schwarber. I think Tucker will cost something like 11 years, $400 m – long and risky, just the way DD likes it, but in fairness to Tucker, he’s a hell of a player.

            Again, if you signed both of these guys, adding in Crawford, potentially, this is a much better offense to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers, who aren’t going anywhere, than this year’s team was. Something needs to change for this offense – they just aren’t good enough right now and they are way, way too inconsistent.

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            1. Dodgers…without the Japanese infusion, even with Betts, Freeman and Snell….are just not the juggernaut that they are made out to be.

              Commissioner and MLB somehow need to improve the equality in the game.

              He should ask Bryce H. for ideas!

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    2. Probably just trying to sound like he’s still privy to the internal workings of the team. Doesn’t mean they aren’t considering some startling moves. But Amaro is media now. He’s not going to get anything ahead of the real media like Gelb and Zolecki to name two. It really depends on what he thinks is big. I think Wheeler, Harper, and Turner are staying put. Those are big contracts. Nola has 10 and 5 rights. Castellanos and Walker have sizeable contracts for their final year. Neither is playing at a level that would lead any of us to think they could be moved without cash accompanying them in a trade. But there’s a saying that there is no such thing as a bad one-yar contract. Could that apply here? Then you’ve got Bohm and Luzardo who are both likely to break through to 8 figures in arbitration. Is $10M considered a big contract? It only takes moving one of these guys for Amaro to look like he knows what is going to transpire. But many people, some here, are predicting that some of these guys will be traded. IMO, The Phillies will make any trade that they feel will make them better. Yeah, a couple of these guys could go if acceptable trade partners can be found.

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  65. Rotation should be great next year. Sanchez, Luzardo, a much improved Nola (no way he will have a 6 ERA), fingers crossed on Wheeler’s return, and Painter as the #5. Bullpen looks OK, too. Alvarado, Strahm, Kekering (extra PFPs!) and Duran is a good base for a strong bullpen.

    I would jettison Castellanos. Marsh is a platoon player in left (with Kemp or Wilson, I don’t care which). Sign Tucker for right. Justin Crawford in center. What to do about third base? Aidan Miller mid-year?

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          1. His option is a formality. It’s below market and it’s mutual so he’s not taking it even if the Phillies picked it up. He’d need a new contract. Unless they do something massive like signing Tucker, I’d love for him to be around next year. I’m a big fan!

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            1. He may but I am not sure he gets more than 10AAV. Bader is an excellent CF. But he is and most likely will return to an average hitter as he has been most of his career. I like him but those of you who think he is going to hit like he did for those few weeks with the Phillies are going to be disappointed going forward. Barring injury players at this stage of career return to what they are in most cases.

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            2. Bader’s option is $10M…..that is not below market for him based on his recent AAVs….2021-$2M….2022 and 2023-$5M each year pn extended arb ….2024-$10M……he would accept the the current option, but he may be looking for more than just one year. Good luck to him

              Moot point anyway….Phillies decided not to exercise the option.

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            3. No, it’s below market. He significantly outperformed his contract this year. He was a 4.2 WAR player – which is more WAR than Castellanos ever achieved in ANY year. He won’t be paid like a 4 WAR player due his performance in prior years but he significantly upped his worth this year. If signs for a year it will probably be for more money or he may sign a more modest AAV deal (2 years, $25 million?) for multiple years. But he can do better than 1 year, $10 million. It also wouldn’t surprise me if the Phillies just asked him if he would accept if they picked up the option and he said no. None of this prevents him from coming back on another deal.

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          2. Romus. Also saw Schwarber is going to ask in the 5/150 range. I say thanks and do not let the door hit on the way out. Just me. 150 can be spent for more than a complete 1-dimensional player. Said lots of his value is in the clubhouse. Where did that take them the last 3 seasons. I get tired of watching him strikeout all the time when putting the ball in play might be productive.

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            1. Don…he may get the $30M AAV….but may have to settle for a shorter length…maybe 3 years plus an option buy-out on the 4th year. He turns 33 in the spring, not sure how many offers he will get for 5 years….then again he only needs one.

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  66. $38 million that’s the number tied into Nick and Tai. I’m not sure how much of that you can pass on to another team. Maybe $16 between the two but who knows they may not even find suitors for one let alone both.

    Theory is one thing executing on it another…

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  67. My dream and realistic offseason:

    Re-sign Bader, JT, Schwarber (he’s not getting more than 4 years in my opinion). Sign Tucker, I know he’s LH but his LH splits are really good, youngish, good defender, and frankly just supremely talented.

    It’s only money and it’s not yours. I’m 47 years old and have ZERO interest in seeing Phillies teams running out an OF of Longmire, Whiten, and Tom Marsh again.

    Trade Casty(DFA him if necessary, no way he can be on this team next year), Marsh and Bohm. Sorry kids, Walker is back!!! No one wants that contract even with 1 year left.

    From C to OF: JT, Harper, Stott, Trea, Kemp/Sosa, Tucker, Bader, Crawford, Scharbarian

    SP: Wheeler(thought I saw something he could be back around opening day), Nola, Luzardo, Sanchez, Painter, Walker.

    RP: Duran, Strahm, Kerk, Banks, Alvarado (i would exercise his option he has something to prove) FA’s

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        1. I just meant I feel Olsen will win. Harper has become a very good defensive 1B. Little surprised Freddie is not one. He saved the Dodgers bacon.

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  69. Romus. As you said anything is possible. Look at what these colleges are paying to get rid of football coaches. I sent pics to Ruff on top 10 buyouts and guarantees. Crazy.

    Article I saw listed Tigers, Reds Royals as 3 possibles. I see none going that 5 for 150. But only 1 has to do that.

    Maybe their analytics can determine HRs to swing and miss and see what each swing will cost them for 5 years.

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  70. IMO, both Casty & Walker are very tradeable going into their final year of their deals. Eat half their contracts, possible more, use the savings to resign Realmuto.

    Something that could dramatically change the team, is if Wheeler does retire, and they Phillies then trade Nola, along with the Walker & Casty salary dumps.

    Will see. Going to be interesting but if woudl not surprise me to see the FO run it back. I think it is much more likely than people think. The SP was great, the hitting was great per the season stats.. bullpen outperformed. Add to the pen and this team is still near the top teams in baseball. remember is took the dodgers forever to break through … how many Clayton Kershaw infamous postseason meltdowns did htey have to watch?

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    1. Well, it’s easy TO THINK it will be easy to move the Castellanos and Walker contracts.Nick is low man on the WAR totem pole for a reason. The Bank is seen as a good power hitters’ park and Castellanos didn’t put up the power numbers. He looks increasingly like a DH only. He’s no team’s Plan A, B or C. The only way he gets dealt with quickly is if he is DFA’ed.

      There’s an optics problem. The fan base sees moving Castellanos as an obvious priority. But no other team will see acquiring Nick as a priority. It likely will take time to play out thisoff-season.

      Walker seems more like a mid-season move if he shows anything early in 2026. If he’s performing decently and is the odd man out in the rotation when Wheeler returns, that’s the time for getting a return on Taijuan.

      There’s a better chance the Phils will add depth to compete with Taijuan at the back end of the rotation. The message to all teams competing for the post-season this year is pitching depth. It’s an injury-depleted rotation that will welcome Taijuan on an expiring contract.

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      1. It won’t be easy. He’s not a very good player and last year he was downright bad. Maybe nobody bites. If somebody does bite, it will be second division team looking for a DH and they would not be willing to pay much (about $5-7 million, max) and, no, you’re not getting any real prospects for him either? Why would a team send the Phillies prospects? They are taking a liability off the Phillies’ hands. So I agree with you completely. Walker, however, has recovered some of his value. I think he’s worth in the $7-10 million range because he could be a solid 3 or 4 for a year – but he’s no great shakes either, but I have little doubt they could move him and shave off some payroll if that’s what they wanted to do.

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      1. FFlea/Catch/Romus – Both imo are salary dumps, and the return would be the ultimate lottery ticket… think a player who is Single A, at age 28. Casty fits on a middling team HOPING to either get to .500 or sneak in the final WC spot if everything were to go right.. on the cheap. 1 year commitments are great for those teams. We are not really used to that anymore since the Phillies have been balling on the payroll for awhile… think PIT, CIN, AZ,KC, MIN, etc … Nationals There could be something there. 5 mil – 10mil per player woudl be nice.

        On Nola, I was speculating since Amaro was throwing out there that a big contract may get moved. Not sure thre FO is asking Amaro what he would do…but … I don’t see the other big contracts getting moved. So to me, if true, it’s Nola. I don’t think it could be Wheeler… but its fun to think about what his value you would be… unhealthy & healthy

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        1. Well the Phillies do have a few big contracts out there. As for Nola……besides being a Phillie for life as he suggested, not many teams will take on his contract, specifically the length of the contract.

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          1. It’s hard to know what to make of Amaro. I enjoy his podcast with Salisbury and Zolecki which is free wheeling and fairly light. I’m struck with how far from the details of existing contracts Amaro seems to be. He doesn’t seem immersed in the Phillies and doesn’t seem to qualify as a real insider any more. Still, he might have picked up something from the numerous sources he’s acquired from a lifetime in baseball.

            If Harper, Nola Turner or Sanchez is moved this off-season, I will reassess my view of Amaro since these guys are the ones on long term deals.

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          2. To trade Nola would be to eat a lot of money. If you’re paying his contract anyway the pitching depth is too valuable. Same with Walker, I’d expect him to be back next year as well.

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            1. It makes no sense to me to sell low on Nola, when they will need mid-rotation pitchers next year and there’s every reason to believe he can bounce back and fill that role. I don’t see them trading him – certainly not now – it makes no sense to me.

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  71. I don’t understand why the Mariners manager let Kirby give up 8 ERs. This is the playoffs. The second he gives up 3 runs in an inning, you have to get somebody up and get him out of there. Giving up 5 runs in an inning, your odds of winning are pretty much toast.

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    1. My takes on today’s press conference. DD is not as disappointed in the season’s outcome as the fans are. Dombrowski was more disappointed with 2023 when he felt the Phils were the best team. He clearly doesn’t think the Phils are the best team now. For the fans, the angst builds for each year a title eludes the organization. DD shows no sign that he gets that.

      DD didn’t indicate that Topper’s future beyond 2026 is his priority. Topper may get an extension. My sense is that 2026 could be Thomson’s last year as manager of the Phils.

      Castellanos and Kepler are gone and no effort will be made to re-sign Robertson. I eventually got the impression they will pick up the Alvarado option.

      Kemp will have a chance to show he is an every day player. He played hurt. No one on the team got more praise from Dombrowski. Stott came in for some praise. They aren’t going anywhere.

      Marsh got no attention. and Bohm got little. If they’re integral to the team’s plans, it wasn’t clear from the press conference.

      Phillies could acquire a first baseman to bump Harper to RF on a short term basis. To me, the Phils can go with Schwarber and Harper or Alonso and Harper;but would have a tough time with Harper plus Schwarber and Alonso on long term deals.

      Topper likes Bader and feels he’s adapted offensively in positive ways. Seems clear Thomson would like him back.

      I got no sense that the Phils have a way of fitting Ranger in for 2026 but they like Luzardo as a long term piece.

      Realmuto will be back so long as Thomson has any say in the matter.

      Young guys like Crawford, Painter, Miller. Kemp,Kerkering, even Lazar figure in the team’s plans.

      I didn’t hear Duran’s name mentioned which I thought curious. Dombrowski made no opening statement and outlined the coaching plan only in response to a question. Maybe they put something out on this separately but I found the lack of an opening statement with this news to be curious.

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          1. Not a strong write up. Didn’t establish confidence in the reader when Mosher claimed that the Dodgers eliminated the Phils in 3 games.

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      2. Alec Bohm — who Dombrowski didn’t bring up in the almost hour of the presser — can be moved for some return value ahead of his final season of club control, now is probably the time.

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  72. Here’s my off-season predictions for the Phillies

    1. Schwarber returns for 5 years – $175 million – AAV $35m
    2. JTR returns for 3 years – $40 million – AAV $13.3m
    3. Teams make a run at Bregman – 5 years – $175 million – AAV $35m
    4. Castellanos gets moved for what they can get in salary relief. They end up eating around $12m of the remaining contract
    5. Bohm is traded with Bregman on board
    6. Alvarado is back on his 1-year option
    7. Badar returns on a 2 year – $25 million deal and OF becomes Crawford in RF, Bader in CF, and Marsh/Kemp/Wilson in LF as platoon
    8. They sign a reclamation starter on a 1-year deal to add rotation depth with the rotation being Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, Walker, Painter, and new guy pending Wheeler’s return.
    9. Team looks to extend Luzardo longer term but that’s not a priority for this off-season.

    Fanbase will complain that the contracts are too long and the $$$ too high but that’s where the market is. Andrew Miller will eventually replace Bryson Stott or Turner will move to LF and Miller will take over SS in 2027/2028.

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    1. That’s a lot of money to throw at this team, I’d be shocked if they made a big FA move outside of DH and Catcher. If you’re signing Bregman that’s probably at the expense of Kyle Schwarber (I’m not opposed to that).

      If the Phillies signed Bregman, to me you then give DH to Kemp and it becomes a rotational spot for guys to get off their feet with Kemp filling in at 1B, 3B, and LF. Bregman can hit behind Bryce. He’s a champion and could fill Schwarber’s shoes as a leader.

      I have a 3 year cap with Schwarber that I could maybe move to 4 years but if we’re giving Schwarber 5 years I’d rather just give Kyle Tucker 10. Personally, I think Schwarber’s going to get a smaller contract than we are all thinking. Bregman at his age for 5 years would be tough to swallow as well.

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    2. 3up, on no planet anyone lives on will fans complain about ownership spending money on their team. Listening today, I find no support for your idea that the Phils will go big on Schwarber — $35 M a year for 5 years — and then turn around and sign Bregman for the same. You might as well tell us Middleton will conduct bake sales outside the stadium next year to square accounts. PlusRealmuto and Bader? I fervently hope you are right. I am 99.9 % sure you are not.

      I think you mean Aidan Miller. I didn’t mention it earlier but Dombrowski said today the IF is in good shape. Doesn’t mean they aren’t interested in Bregman. But no one listening to Dombrowski would get the impression that the Phils are looking for a new Alpha performer.

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      1. Strange, because I read constant complains about the contracts for Turner, Walker, Castellanos, JTR, and Harper and so on so fans seem to complain about the ownership spending money on the team all the time.

        As for the predictions, will see come February how much of a miss they were.

        And yes, I meant Aiden Miller.

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  73. Given the praise Kemp received, I would think Bohm is on the move. I think Dickerson can make him a serviceable defender. That’s the right move in my opinion. I’m not a big fan of Bohm’s offensive game but I respect how he worked to improve defensively. Hopefully he can fetch something via trade (maybe a BP piece?)

    Given the manager’s comments, I think they make a push to sign Bader to cover CF. Marsh probably becomes 1 half of a platoon in RF at that point and you let Rojas/Crawford compete for LF/CF.

    I think the biggest issue with the line-up is there is no right handed power and no protection for Harper and I’m really not sure how you address that if you bring back Schwarber. Bader isn’t a clean-up hitter and that’s a lot of faith to have in Kemp. JT isn’t that guy anymore either. You probably have to get a big RH bat for RF but again, I’m not sure that guy is out there and available. Maybe you try Stott at leadoff again and move Schwarber back to 4th. Then have Bader leadoff against LHP when Sosa starts?

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    1. A big eye opener for me today was Otto Kemp. I thought that what you see is what you get. Clearly the Phils don’t see it that way. It’s like a whole other gear that a healthy Kemp provides — so much so that he could be an every day player. He’s referred to in the same sentence with Crawford, Painter and Miller. That is big.

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      1. What injury did Kemp have?…..he suited up in 136 games between Philly and L:HV and over 550 PAs. Top kept him out in many games….if injured he could have been on the IL for 10 days. Now I know  he sustained a bad knee bruise  in June after getting hit by a pitch, which temporarily kept him out of the lineup but that was not significant. 

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        1. Kemp had a significant injury. I had similar in my twenties playing football. Didn’t go to the ER for a couple days. I give him credit for playing through it. He probably felt it imperative that he remain available to the team. I know he was injured when he was optioned in August. Like Topper said, “Tough guy”. And no, I’m not going to reveal the type of injury.

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    1. Press events like today’s afford an opportunity for a team to signal interest in impending free agents and others without concern for tampering charges vis players under contract elsewhere.

      Today the Phils signaled interest in Schwarber, Realmuto, Bader Alvarado and Luzardo.

      They didn’t signal interest in Ranger Suarez.

      To me they signaled a lack of interest in Castellanos and Kepler.

      If it plays out this way, some will claim the Phils are just “running it back.” But I have no quibble with an outcome along these lines. The Phils need to leave room to get younger, cheaper and more athletic.

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  75. For those who insist on reading the tea leaves on Thomson, the Phillies signed him to an extension on October 15, 2024. So, if that looks like a clue as to their plans this year, they signed him to an extension the year before on December 4, 2023. So, there is no “clue” in today’s presser regarding a lack of confidence in Thomson.

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  76. I found it interesting that DD publicly criticized Harper for not having an elite season. Will it motivate Bryce or will he feel disrespected? We will soon find out.

    Second, DD admitted that the Phillies will not re-sign all 4 of their FAs (Schwarber, Realmuto, Suarez, Bader). I’ve been saying this for a while now, the second Suarez signed with Boras, he wasn’t coming back to the Phillies.

    Third, even though the Phillies will still have a substantial payroll (~300M), DD mentioned that it’s not practical for the Phillies to sign everybody. The Phillies will not have a $400M payroll. I think if the Phillies don’t sign Schwarber, they’ll sign somebody else. But this tell me that the Phillies likely won’t be adding Bregman and they definitely won’t be adding Tucker.

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  77. Wow, Skubal is not a FA until 2027 but Scott Boras is trying to get the Tigers to sign the richest deal ever given to a pitcher: $400M. The Tigers have countered with ~$170M. The Tigers don’t really have any long term contract commitments so they should be able to absorb that contract, but man, it’s a scary deal considering how often pitchers get hurt.

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  78. “The Phillies are expected to either trade or release the veteran outfielder, club sources have said. Dombrowski’s reluctance to say anything about Castellanos on Thursday affirmed that stance. When asked about Castellanos, Dombrowski said he could not comment on “specific players that are on our roster under contract,” then spent the next 34 minutes doing just that.” [The Athletic]

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      1. I think he is gone no matter what. If they have to eat 15mil of his salary, and can put 5mil towards resigning Realmuto… they do it, and replace Casty with a young player. It’s basically a no brainer at his point. I bet for 5 million … they Chicago Whitesoxs would take him to replace Luis Robert bat, as they are likely to agree to his 20 mil option.

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  79. I have come to the conclusion after listening to DD that you guys (all of you), can build your straw castles & men, trade who you want, play your statistics and analytics til blue in the face and it will not matter a bit!

    They only see, what they see and in a significant amount of time are “Kennel blind”! Now we could be 2nd best to the Dodgers…. but they are the strongest IMO.

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  80. I thought it was strange that DD mentioned that Harper didn’t have an elite year. It was the truth, the Phillies need Harper to perform in order to get back to the WS. But I thought that this is something said behind closed doors. Anyways, either Harper gets motivated by this or disrespected. We’ll find out soon enough.

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  81. I found it odd that DD would criticize Harper for not having an elite year. Don’t get get me wrong, DD was was absolutely right but I thought stuff like this get said behind closed doors. So either Harper gets motivated or disrespected by this comment. We’ll find out soon enough.

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    1. It’s funny how sensitive as a society we have become. I didn’t find anything that DD said to in any way be untrue, critical or mean-spirited. It was incredibly accurate and honest – this year, Bryce Harper was a good, but not elite player. But I agree that most professional athletes would view this as a criticism and that most GMs wouldn’t risk making comments like this for fear things could go sideways like the ridiculous Ben Simmons saga (that whole thing was INSANE – but it surely happened due to some seemingly innocuous comments by Doc Rivers). We will see how Harper takes this. If he is true to his word (he always said he would boo himself at times if he were a fan), then he will take this entirely at face value. I certainly hope so.

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      1. I don’t see anything wrong with what DD said about Harper. I’d imagine Harper is the “nobody is harder on me than myself” type of guy. I don’t see him being the type to lie to himself, at least from where I stand. I don’t know him personally, so I could be wrong … but I feel like it was a seed DD planted to get/keep Harper grinding. Harper has 4 kids now, he could be getting soft!

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  82. Two more thoughts about the press conference:

    DD mentioned that the Phillies will not re-sign all 4 FAs: Schwarber, Realmuto, Suarez, Bader. You can easily guess who won’t be coming back.

    The Phillies will keep a substantial payroll but not a crazy one (no $400M). To me, it means Bregman is unlikely and Tucker is off the board.

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    1. If the Phils can find money in the couch to pay an expensive free agent from outside, this would seem to complicate efforts to affordably re-sign any of the team’s own free agents.

      As a matter of sequencing, I think the Phils will prioritize re-signing its own free agents. I don’t expect much money to be available after that. The interest should come in the trade market, where I think most of the change to come.

      A Castellanos trade wouldn’t move the needle much. I expect another, a more significant trade to happen. DD was busy at this year’s trade deadline in part to correct for what wasn’t done last winter. He paid top dollar to ink free agent David Robertson. In season repairs can be costly. Dombrowski presumably learned from that.

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  83. Looks like the path is easy for the Dodgers to repeat as WS champions. Then there are some more Japanese players who could be of interest to them soon…..I gues it would also be mutual interest. Munetaka Murakami,  Kazuma Okamoto and Tatsuya Imai are three prominent Japanese stars expected to be posted for MLB teams in the 2026 offseason. Murakami is a powerful infielder who is projected to be a top free agent after the 2025 NPB season, while Imai is a highly-touted right-handed pitcher also likely to make the jump to MLB and  Okamoto has led NPB in home runs three times and built a reputation as one of Japan’s most dependable run producers. His 2023 season, featuring 41 homers and 93 RBI, reminded everyone that consistency can be as loud as raw strength.

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    1. Perhaps MLB should initiate a “foreign player rule” similar to the one Japan uses in the NPB – limit of 5 foreigners on a “first team” roster and a limit of 4 in a game with a further restriction that the 4 in game players can be 3 pitchers and a position player or 2 pitchers and 2 position players. There is no foreign player limit on their “second team rosters” (their minor leagues).

      Since there are many Latin players in the league, MLB could just limit the number of Japanese players in the majors. Such a limit (say 2 or 3) would force new Japanese players to sign with teams other than the Dodgers. That may seem like a rule solely meant to adversely affect the Dodgers. But MLB created the Ohtani rule that only benefits Ohtani and the Dodgers (the pitcher remaining in the game as a DH when replaced).

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      1. I agree with this 100%. Japan is essentially a minor league team of the Dodgers. Everybody knew that Ohtani, Yamamoto and Sasaki was headed to the Dodgers.

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      2. Agree…there must be something done…..one reason why I am wanting the Dodgers to win the WS this year and next year with more Japanese talent infused into their lineup……have the pressure put on the Commissioner to finally do something about this travesty.

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      3. If a team, any team, removed a pitcher and stuck him in RF, what should happen? (Could be Ohtani or anybody.) The only answer I can think of is that he hits for the guy he replaces, the right fielder. Should the DH spot be handled differently? Why? I have no problem with the Ohtani Rule.

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  84. Skubal won’t be a FA until 2027, but that hasn’t stopped Scott Boras from trying to negotiate the most expensive contract ever given to a pitcher (~$400M). The Tigers, who have almost no long term contracts, can easily absorb a contract of this magnitude. However, the Tigers are playing hardball and countered with ~$170M. I think we all know where this is headed to.

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  85. MLBTR Poll: For Whom Will Nick Castellanos Play Next Year?

    Somewhere Else 41.87% ….

    Kansas City Royals 21%  ….

    Cleveland Guardians 20% ….

    San Diego Padres 17%  ….

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    1. The Padres and Guardians are too smart to go for this (he would make their teams worse) and why would KC want him? I say “Somewhere Else”.

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        2. I can see him going to a small market team who need a power hitter/offense for cheap. Think Pirates or such as long as they only have to pay him $5mil +/-

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        3. that could be real interesting … as Schwarber could be heading there as well. Imagine if CIN got Schwarber, Casty, and Ranger 🙂 lol super unlikely but 2 might not be so far fetched.

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        4. You’re right, Romus, the Reds re-signing him may be the most likely – it would be such a classic move for the Reds. There’s a reason they don’t win 90 games anymore, even though they actually have a lot of talent on that roster.

          By the way, my view with this Phillies team was that they were, by quite some measure, the most balanced and deep of this recent vintage of Phillies’ teams, although the loss of Bader, in my opinion, really hurt them as much as anything in a series where one timely hit and one timely fielding play, here or there, could have made all the difference. The way the Phillies fought the Dodgers (it was closer than the 3-1 series outcome suggested) and the way the Dodgers dispatched the Brewers confirm my hunch that if the Phillies had found some way to get past LA they would have won it all (it’s very hard to see how Toronto or Seattle will get past LA – LA is so much better than both clubs and the Phillies were also better than both those teams, but Toronto might have given them fits). They had their flaws for sure (as exposed by the Dodgers) but they really did have a very strong and deep team. Sigh . . . .

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  86. The Dodgers are a better team than the Phillies and to be honest, I am not sure how close it is. Their stars are better and their depth is better. The Phillies are the second best team in baseball imo. But there is a considerable gap. If the Phillies are serious about winning it, DD is going to have to do something bold this offseason.

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    1. Somewhat bold….how about signing one of these three Japanese payers…..Munetaka Murakami,  Kazuma Okamoto and/or  Tatsuya Imai. Start playing the game like the Dodgers, Yankees, Sox or even the Cubs now. Pick up impactful players on the margins.

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        1. That needs to change….great Japanese players will always go the Dodgers or a specific West Coast team……the Yankees, and Sox have been players, and even the Cubs are getting into the act also…..right now Japanese players can be posted to MLB thru the posting system if their NPB team agrees to post them, or if they have accumulated nine years of professional service time, which makes them an international free agent. Players younger than 25 must be posted by their team, while players who are at least 25 years old with at least six years of professional experience can sign major league contracts when posted. Perhaps as Jim send there may have o be a foreign designated limitation per roster……..or why not an international draft.

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        2. To be expected when their tax payroll is 20-25% higher than the next closest team. They have more depth because they are paying for it.

          Dodgers have 13 players making over $10 million per season.

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  87. I do t want to wait a whole yr. Win division. And lose first round so unless Phillies get creative like dodgers and spread out money. To sign players. I just go to race track. At least I feed dumb animals. I know MLB loves Dodgers winning. There a big Market.

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  88. I think it’s time to challenge a general statement about this team:

    That this team is built for the playoffs.

    I think was true in 2022.. but not anymore. Why?

    This team’s offense goes so cold against great pitching, it can’t score runs. It can’t manufacture runs. Thats a balance it needs to be able to do. If it can’t, then it can’t say it’s built for the playoffs imho.

    On Thompson, a lot of people want to trash him but in the 2022 playoff run, he revolutionized the way bullpen’s were used imo. He essentially matched up his best BP arm with the hardest 3 outs to get in the final innings, regardless of the 7th, 8th, and 9th. I don’t recall anyone doing that before. He maybe over faithful to veterans but you gotta give him credit for that. Dave Roberts basically copied him.

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  89. Praise Thompson. Why? The guy pulled starters in a lot of games. That lead to 27 blown saves. That closes to 100 pitches pull him sucks. Imo

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      1. No I never saw a game. Pulling a guy pitching a great game on a 100 pitch count. To bring in a bad bullpen arm. I guess you think that’s winning baseball

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        1. Let me clarify, even if you guys maybe topper haters you still have to give them credit back in 2022 for how he managed the bullpen in the playoffs. Maybe I’m wrong, but I haven’t seen a manager do matchups in the 7th,8th, & 9th. He had 2 guys throwing 98+ & 100mph. That’s the way to do it imo, instead of holding the designated closer for the 9th, when they maybe facing the 7-9 hitters. You Bring Duran in for the 8th if your set to face your opponents best hitters

          Now maybe it’s because the Phillies hadn’t been in the playoffs for over a decade, but I don’t recall any manager doing that in the playoffs before. That’s pretty strategic. So was hunting fastballs, until the other teams found out you were hunting fastballs, been down hill since then for the offense

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        2. Regularly see guys pitching no hitters pulled based on pitch count so that’s how the game is played today. Can’t blame Thomson for doing what everyone in baseball now does.

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        1. Baltimore would run from that deal. They won’t spend $25 million per year on a pitcher, especially one coming off a bad year.

          You offered them Nola outright for zero return and they say no.

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          1. I think that is a crazy take. No way Nola has zero value because he had a down year plagued by injuries. Starting pitcher depth in majors is terrible. So few quality starters. I get that you are down on him but calling him a negative value player seems crazy to me.

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            1. Not saying Nola has zero value but Baltimore has shown they will not pay big $$$ for pitching. Don’t see them taking that plunge for a guy like Nola.

              Liked by 1 person

          2. What is a fair take is that Baltimore would ask for us to pay down part of his contract for that deal. But also Adley has not performed well the last 2 years. He has huge upside but so does Nola. There is a big age difference. So that’s fair. Maybe we need to attach a kid prospect too.

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            1. that’s a tough one, but I think BAL is the 1st to say no. Why? Addy is apart of their rebuild. He’s had some down play, but I think it’s too hard for them to trade him. They have a top C prospect but they can still fit both on the everyday roster with some combo between C,DH,& 1B.
              it’s tough for them because they for some reason have a hard time keeping pitchers. Corbin Burnes bolting in FA from is a bit telling imo. It’s a poorly run organization. Pretty close though.

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            2. I hear how the Os are poorly run….I suppose the same could be said if Wheeler, Sanchez and Luzardo had missed the entire year…..several O’s starting pitchers sustained significant injuries in 2025, including season-ending issues for Zach Eflin (back surgery) and Grayson Rodriguez (elbow/lat injuries requiring surgery), and a return from a major elbow injury for Kyle Bradish in the second half of the year. Other pitchers like Cody Poteet, Albert Suarez, and Tyler Wells also dealt with injuries. ….and then you have Burnes going to free agency.

              So before one says how bad they are run….dig into the weeds.

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  91. Just a few follow-ups on comments above. Jim. The Ohtani Rule exists in Indiana High School baseball. No idea name given but most likely applies to all 50 states that use the same guidelines. First time I saw it used was when my grandson was a sophomore early in the season. Coach was only going to have him pitch 2 or 3 innings. So, he DH for himself the pitcher and then hit the remainder of the game. I paid no attention when Ohtani was with Angels but did he not pitch some before he hurt his arm. If so, was it the same as now.

    v1. I agree that 1-26 the Dodgers have more talent than the Phillies. But the best team does not always win. Reason I am still so ticked that IMO Topper gave games 1 and 2 away with incredibly poor game management. How in the world after a week off is David Robertson option 1 in a game you lead and then to make matters worse send him back out for the top of the 7th. Those 2 baserunners were the difference in the game. Game 2 Kerkering with men on base has been a disaster almost every time it has played out. Add game 4 in as well. All 3 were very winnable games even with the poor offensive output. Roberts almost pitched a shutout vs Topper in the series.

    Tac. I agree that the highest leverage point may not be the 9th. So, explain to me why Duran pitched the 9th in game 1 and game 2 with the Phillies trailing 2 and 3 runs? Awful managing IMO. He did bring him in early in game 4. Were games 1 and 2 not just as important? I know it did not work but I too would have walked Ohtani. Duran walking Betts did not occur to me till count went 2-0.

    Dodgers are now 9-1. Phillies are 1-3 in the playoffs. Will not surprise me they finish 13-1. It may fall to 13-2. But Phillies had a great chance to have won games 1 & 2 at CBP. The new house of horrors for the Phillies.

    Finally, just my take. I will be surprised if Kerkering pitches again in Philly. The last play of the season reminds me of the Billy Buckner disaster. Buckner never recovered. We all know that Philly fans are the most forgiving bunch. I am only kidding. That was an awful play. A play seen in 9U travel ball.

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    1. Maybe just like in the NFL it is the offensive coordinator that calls the plays not head coach maybe Topper should have a defensive assistant that decides on pitchers during the game.

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  92. I live in Orange County California and the Dodgers pundits, fans, etc. are already talking about pursuing Kyle Tucker even with the enormous payroll they have and trip to WS. There is no reason the Phillies can be in that mix. They have the money, ownership, and need for that position.

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      2. The deferred money is creative accounting that I suspect will be greatly restricted in the next CBA but that doesn’t impact their tax bill. They paid almost $170 million in tax for the 2025 season. Next closest team was Mets at $86 million.

        Dodger’s are the modern version of those Yankee teams from the end of last century that simply outspent everyone else.

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        1. Fines are good….but to someone like Steve Cohen, who is worth $22B, it is pennies.

          I say restrict it also by taking high draft choices and reducing the team’s international money.

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          1. I agree that, at some point, the ability of a team to so far outspend even it’s closest rivals (such as a team like the Phillies) that one team can hoard most of the best talent, is just terrible for baseball. Equally terrible for baseball is a class of teams that has so much less in resources that it virtually never has a chance to become (and more importantly, remain for a reasonable period of time) competitive – it’s not a coincidence that we are seeing teams lose 120 games and are also seeing teams like the Pirates who have virtually no chance of staying competitive, even over a 5-7 year period.

            MLB has solved it’s interminable game length problem (and good for them!!!) now it needs to attack it’s massive financial imbalance problem. Nobody has any illusions about the big and small market teams being relative equal – that’s just not going to happen in this sport – but the gap needs to be lessened. You can’t have fans in towns like Pittsburgh virtually knowing that their team won’t ever be relevant except for a brief fleeting season or two. It’s hard to get behind that type of team, even if you’re a generally loyal fan.

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            1. Giving the small market teams the Competitive Balance picks in Rd A and Rd B of the Rule 4, along with with them recipients in revenue sharing, was initially suppose to lessen that gap…….but really has it! The true baseball aficionado knows that is not the case….the gap is still there and some large market teams are able to be creative—or find the loopholes—around the payroll threshold.

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            2. We all know that the MLB draft is a crap shoot. Giving them more picks won’t help them increase the talent. And as for revenue sharing, the owner just pockets that. The amount is not large enough to make a difference.

              The Pirates team payroll this season was around $85M. Bumping that up to $100M or even $125M will do nothing vs the Phillies, let alone the Dodgers.

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  93. jim;

    do you have any idea when games against the Yankees, blue Jays etc at the complex start this spring? planning on coming down In March.

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      1. rhanks Jim, please let us know when you find out and many thanks for all you do on this wonderful web site.

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  94. I’ve said for many years that the way talent enters the MLB doesn’t make sense. But they could fix it if they really wanted to.

    Anyone that wants to play in the MLB should be subject to a draft. That solves the bulk of the problem.

    No one could ever adequately explains to me why domestic HS and College players have to go through that process and every other foreign player does not.

    Now maybe guys like Ohtani, Yamamoto and Sasaki have to start their MLB careers with teams like KC and the Pirates. And ultimately they still end up in places like LA but at least for those first 4-5 years of team control those teams have a shot.

    If MLBPA doesn’t want to agree to that then hard cap it is.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. DMAR……I’m wich you. All enter thru a draft. And a hard cap to go along with that. We already know one Philly players’ feeling on a hard cap from this past July. He even did not have to put it in writing to the Commish.

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      1. We’ll see what happens Romus. I hope something changes but under my scenario neither Yamamoto or Sasaki is on the Dodgers this season.

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          1. Why wouldn’t the players agree to a foreign draft ? Aren’t the majority of the players in the MLB products of the amateur draft or international draft ? It seems like this would only affect the Asian players which are a very small number.

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            1. Technically there isn’t a current international draft there is only a limit on clubs spending on international signs. I believe Latin American players represent roughly 15% of the MLB.

              And really its the whole Japan scenario that is becoming lopsided.

              That is the point of my ire.

              Perhaps it changes generationally. There was a time that it was the Cuban market.

              I’ve been around long enough to remember the Rusney Castillo contract of $72.5 million in 2014.

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  95. Don – During the regular season if a relief pitcher hasn’t been in a game for awhile, the manager will give him an inning to “keep him sharp”. I believe that’s what Thomson was thinking in game one. Duran Duran hadn’t pitched in a number of days. In game two, he knew an off day was coming and perhaps he wanted to keep the score/game close.

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  96. Here’s NBC Sports Philadelphia’s prediction of the Schwarber contract – 4 years, $120 million. If that’s the price it’s pretty easy to recommend they do this.

    My guess? It’s a year longer with a high AAV. I predict 5 years, $165 million ($33 million AAV). Should they do it at this price? I’d say probably not, but they haven’t consulted me on their contracts recently :).

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      1. I don’t see a mutual option for a player who would be 37 at the time (making it too easy for the Phillies to void the last year). If anything, it would have to be a big team opt out – maybe $15-18 million so, if Schwarber had anything left in the tank, he could roughly equal the salary in his other years by getting a reasonable deal from another team. But, frankly, even though I agree that a team option with an opt-out is a great idea, I don’t see an option happening here at all – just going by DD’s history.

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    1. Really didn’t matter. With no offense to beat dodgers. You need Koufax, jenkins, randy johnson as starters

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    2. Really? I’m glad he did well yesterday and wish him well for the WS, but Hoffman has not been good for the Blue Jays this year. The Phillies were right to move on from him, especially now that they have Duran, who is a much, much better closer than Hoffman.

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  100. the baseball gods missed an opportunity, BlueJays first World Series since 1993? Would have been fitting to square off against the Phillies. Instead, what terrible luck in a way … to have to face the Gazillion Dollar Dodgers. Well I’ll be pulling for Hoffman & Sir A. Both have a nice baseball story arch. Might be a tougher matchup than it initially looks, but the Dodgers should win back to back titles. 🤮

    Liked by 1 person

      1. It’s hard to see the Blue Jays hanging with the Dodgers. I’m predicting the series goes 5 games, 6 tops. When Glasnow is hot (like he is now), the Dodgers essentially throw 4 aces (or near aces) at you. And while their line-up isn’t as strong as the starting pitching, there are at least 3 future HOFers in the line-up (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman) along with some very useful line-up pieces (Smith, Hernandez, Muncy, Pages) that make them pretty formidable on offense. I give the Dodgers better an 80 percent chance of winning the series, although I’ll certainly be rooting for the Blue Jays.

        Liked by 2 people

  101. Gosh I fell asleep I thought the Mariners had that in the bag. JP Crawford was giving me my rooting interest and the fact the Mariners had never been to a WS.

    I still can’t help but think if we had received Teoscar Hernandez in the Ken Giles trade instead of the dreck we ended up with. He’s averaged 25 HRs in his last 8 seasons. Really nice player who’s career earnings barely reach $70 million.

    Imagine that Rusney Castillo has made more than he…

    So maybe you could get the Latin players to agree the system is broken.

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  102. Maybe owners don’t care that they don’t have a shot at the best Japanese players. Owners these days just seem to be staked to the value of their franchises.

    Win or lose they don’t really care because they will never lose money.

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      1. Romus if it was a philly team yes. But not a big market team like dodgers. If the rams had the tush push, nothing would be done

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        1. rocco……are you one of the 15 to vote ‘yes’?

          Should the Phillies bring back Nick Castellanos for 2026?

          No 92.99%  (199 votes)  

          Yes 7.01%  (15 votes)  

          Total Votes: 214

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          1. This is why fans shouldn’t be GMs. He was one of the worst outfielders in baseball. He had negative value and was more responsible for losing than he was for winning. Sorry, but it’s true.

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  104. Here’s question: Has a team that needed 7 games to win their LCS ever beat a team that swept their LCS to win the WS?

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