Phillies Discussion 6/20/2025

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The Phillies swept the Blue Jays, an organization that Phillies teams have had difficulty playing through all levels.  Especially the Complex teams and Clearwater.  Then they took 3 of 4 from Miami thanks to their amazing starting pitching.

I wanted to get a new discussion out for the Mets series this weekend.  This is your Phillies discussion.

So, the Phillies are handing out “one-game suspensions” for speaking the truth?  Every team relies on analytics, some more than others.  The Phillies probably fall into the “some more than others” category.  They had a small analytics group through the teens, like a handful of people with a couple fingers to spare.  They expanded the group around the time Kapler was hired and have grown “exponentially” since.  Sooooo, most managers are slaves to analytics.  Did you see the Miami manager pulling pitchers who had stymied the Phillies more than once this past series?  Definitely analytics.

Anyone else think the third base coach is way too conservative?  Except of course when Kemp is on base.  Or when a base runner doesn’t know he is not to run on contact.  I thought that before the plays above occurred.  I’d like to see him send baserunners a little more often. Make the other team make an accurate throw.  I feel he treats opposing outfielders as though they are Soto clones.

I’d also like to see them attempt more steals.  I didn’t realize they were sixth in baseball at the time.  Still, I’d like to see even more attempts.  There shouldn’t be any reason to not run.  The position of the first baseman is irrelevant.  I know holding the runner on first base creates a “hole” in the infield defense.  But players are trained to hit the ball in the air.  They do so on let’s say 65-70% of the time on balls in play.   The odds are a little more in favor of stealing a base with recent changes.  And odds are the ball if hit will be in the air.  I say, forget the hole and get the runner into scoring position.  Then work on improving the rate that runners in scoring position actually score.

Important Dates

  • April 4, 2025: MiLB roster limits decrease from 175 to 165 players
  • July 13-15, 2025: MLB Amateur Draft
  • July 24, 2025: End of FCL regular season
    • July 26, 2025: One-game FCL semi-final
    • July 27-29: Best of three FCL finals
  • July 31, 2025: MLB trade deadline at 6:00 P.M. EST
  • August 19, 2025: End of DSL regular season
    • Playoffs TBD: 8 teams, 3 best-of-three rounds
      • 6 division winners, 2 wild cards
  • Note: These dates will be used unless/until notified differently.

Transactions 

6/19/2025 – Phillies transferred RHP Aaron Nola from the 15- to the 60-day IL, right ankle sprain
6/19/2025 – Phillies selected the contract of 2B Buddy Kennedy from Lehigh Valley
6/19/2025 – Phillies optioned LF Weston Wilson to Lehigh Valley
6/19/2025 – Lehigh Valley transferred RHP Gabe Mosser to the Development List
6/19/2025 – 3B Nick Dunn assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs from Reading
6/19/2025 – Reading placed LHP Braeden Fausnaught on the 7-day IL retroactive to 8/18
6/19/2025 – Reading activated RHP Griff McGarry from the 7-day IL
6/19/2025 – Reading activated 3B Luis Verdugo from the Development List
6/19/2025 – Clearwater sent OF Griffin Burkholder on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
6/19/2025 – FCL Phillies activated OF Jaeden Calderon from the 7-day IL
6/19/2025 – RHP Giussepe Velasquez assigned to FCL Phillies from Clearwater
6/19/2025 – DSL Phillies White transferred RHP Naiker Velazquez from the 7- to the 60-day IL
6/18/2025 – Texas traded RHP Nolan Hoffman to Phillies for cash
6/18/2025 – Phillies optioned RHP Nolan Hoffman to Lehigh Valley
6/18/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Nolan Hoffman
6/18/2025 – Lehigh Valley activated RHP Austin Schulfer from the 7-day IL
6/17/2025 – Phillies signed FA SS Jonathan Alcantara to an MiLB contract
6/17/2025 – Lehigh Valley transferred RHP Koyo Aoyagi to the Development List
6/17/2025 – Reading activated RHP Daniel Harper from the 7-day IL
6/17/2025 – Reading activated C Caleb Ricketts from the 7-day IL
6/17/2025 – RHP Josh Hejka assigned to Jersey Shore from Reading
6/17/2025 – C Luis Caicuto assigned to Jersey Shore from Reading
6/17/2025 – Jersey Shore transferred RHP Drew Garrett to the Development List
6/17/2025 – Jersey Shore released RHP Augusto Calderon
6/17/2025 – C Luke Davis assigned to FCL Phillies from Jersey Shore
6/17/2025 – SS Jonathan Alcantara assigned to DSL Phillies White
6/16/2025 – Reading transferred 3B Luis Verdugo to the Development List
6/16/2025 – Detroit claimed RHP Carlos Hernández off waivers from Phillies
6/15/2025 – Baltimore claimed RHP Kyle Tyler off waivers from Phillies
6/14/2025 – Seattle traded 3B Nick Dunn to Phillies for cash
6/14/2025 – 3B Nick Dunn assigned to Reading
6/14/2025 – Jersey Shore activated RHP Ethan Chenault from the 7-day IL
6/14/2025 – Jersey Shore sent OF Raylin Heredia on a rehab assignment to FCL Phillies
6/13/2025 – Jersey Shore transferred RHP Augusto Calderon to the Development List

327 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion 6/20/2025”

  1. i really never realize how hard it must be to evaluate talent in minors. Listen to Clearwater game. The opposite pitchers Cates was, at 91.5 on his fastball. Tough for anyone to project what a guy like Nori. Who had two hits would do, against major league pitchers imo. Only guy with that low velocity is Nolan. That I know of. Most 94 and up. Really wonder if offense wakes up this weekend against Nets.

    Only

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    1. They’re beating the team they’re supposed to but I worry about this offense too. They will need make one legitimate deadline move on offense.

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  2. The average success rate for stolen bases in MLB is around 75-80%. In recent years, MLB has seen a significant increase in stolen base attempts and success rates, with some seasons even reaching over 80%. This is partly due to rule changes aimed at incentivizing base stealing. Phillies do have guys that can do more of it…….but sometimes I think they want the batters like Harper and Schwarber to see better pitches and not work around-chase pitches. and decide to just stay on first base.

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    1. Romus. I was thinking on that topic other night when Stott was thrown out. How much bigger are the bases now than a couple years ago? When you watch many of these steal attempts by whatever team the play is really close one way or the other. Three or four inches makes a world of difference being safe or out on many of these.

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      1. the bases are larger … but another aspect is those “mitts” … no way those players aren’t pulling those things out to their advantage. Besides the obvious jokes, they are getting another 1-2” there to shorten the distance. The video replays count the mitt, not the actually hand.

        to me another aspect is what seems to be the increased frequency of the player beating the throw, then sliding off the bag, and eventually being out. I don’t ever remember players sliding off the bag at such high rates

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        1. Tac. Excellent point on the sliding mitts There are so many very close plays on stolen bases that any advantage helps. The disadvantage as you alluded is that really nothing for the runner to hold onto the base with, so we do see them slide off. I mostly watch Philly games but sure there may be some guys who are better than others with the mitts. Say it is a couple more inches and the base maybe 3 or 4. That makes a huge difference being safe or out.

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        2. Tac. Since I could not get Philles other than on the MLB site that breaks into games when something is happening watched some others along the way. One game had stolen base by a Ranger called out, but replay showed the “mitt” made it before the tag. Thought you would like that. He did stay on the bag. The announcers made reference to the extra two inches or so with the mitt. I do see many plays at 2B that are super close.

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    1. A fellow discussed here occasionally Keaton Anthony is hitting .406 with an OPS of .972 at Lehigh Valley. This after a recent promotion. He was hitting clean-up last night.

      I understand the rationale for promoting Buddy Kennedy. But how much can they expect from him?

      It would have been an aggressive move to stick Anthony on the 40-man roster and promote him instead. With Harper out, there are worse things than having a so-called Gold Glover at IB who happens to be tearing up AAA pitching.

      My fear is that the Phils will use Anthony as a trade chip at the deadline without a sense of what he could be. If the Phils were ripping the cover off the ball or loaded with quality right-handed bats, it would be a different conversation. But the Phils could pay a price for sitting on the nest too long.

      If the team waits for another injury or waits in general, they just look reactive. If Anthony isn’t ready or becomes redundant after Harper returns, you send him back down. Lots of teams will do that. Shouldn’t be soul-crushing for Anthony as it wasn’t for Abel.

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      1. After not making the opening day roster, Buddy Kennedy is getting rewarded for his .835 OPS at Lehigh. It’s still an odd choice since Kennedy, Sosa, Kemp are primarily IFs. That leaves Rojas as the lone backup OF.

        The Phillies are giving Kemp an extended look. Keaton is limited to 1B/DH. I think Keaton will get his shot if Kemp starts to look over matched by the pitchers.

        Keaton has only played 8 games at Lehigh. Let him get more experience.

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      2. Kennedy and Anthony play completely different (potential) roles for the team. Kennedy is here to be a super sub who can play multiple positions and pinch hit. Anthony is a 1b-only player. If you bring up Anthony, then you have to also send Kemp back down, because they can’t currently both exist on the same roster when we still have Bohm taking up one of the only two positions we can play them at.

        So it’s not a choice of Kennedy or Anthony, it’s a choice of Kemp or Anthony.

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    2. Interesting to see 2 players from same HIGH school touted in top 10 – Hernandez and Carlson both from Corona High School. Irony, Corona has a 3rd player who should be drafted – Ebel. And irony, Corona did NOT win the Southern California District Playoffs.

      Great high school baseball here – 9 guys from the Trinity League / Orange County California were rostered on teams in Omaha / CWS.

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      1. SoCal. That is why baseball is a crazy game. If you are playing a 1 game elimination those things happen. Here is Indiana some of the best players never won a Sectional title. Three guys is a lot and still lose but I have seen it happen here as well.

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        1. Don….Max Fried-senior, Lucas Giolito-junior, Jack Flaherty-soph…..all three pitched for one HS at the same time.–Harvard-Westlake in SoCal….all three first round draft choices.

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          1. Romus. I knew that. I am sure I heard if they won the state title but have forgot. Lots of announcers bring that up when one of them pitches. Thanks for mentioning.

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            1. Yes, …..Harvard-Westlake HS did win a Cali baseball state championship.  In 2013, won the Southern Section Div I ….. at Dodger Stadium. They were the sole school from the San Fernando Valley to win this title in the section’s largest division at the time. Jack Flaherty was the pitcher on the team at the time.

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    2. Rocco …….. you have implemented the old “Connie Mack Stadium” regimen …… Hey Mr., we will watch your car for 5 bucks so that nutten happens …. you are the man!

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  5. Chris Sale was drafted in 2010. The ChiSox almost immediately moved him into their BP. He pitched in 21 games, finished 8 of them and threw 23.1 Innings.

    The following season 2011 he did the same thing. Appeared in 58 games finished 17 and threw 71 IP.

    In 2012 he started 29 games and of course the rest is history.

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  6. This line up is terrible and needs a major shake up!

    Before any trades while Harper is hurt let’s see:

    Crawford, Turner, Kemp, Schwarber, Casty, Bohm, Keaton Anthony, JT, and Stott. It can’t be worse!

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      1. Anthony, Kemp, and Bohm cannot all be in the lineup at the same time. That’s 3 people for 2 positions. And none of them are worth even the thought of benching Schwarber.
      2. “It can’t be worse!” Actually, it most definitely CAN be worse. The Phillies currently have the 9th best offense in baseball. We’ve scored over 100 more runs than the Pirates. We’ve scored more than 50 more than the Orioles. Ask those teams if prospects are a magic fix to hitting slumps.

      Prospects are fun to dream on. But people forget how massive the difference between the minors and the majors is. Keaton is having a great year. Let him keep having a great year. He doesn’t currently have a spot on the big league team. And the odds are much higher that he’ll fail than succeed. I want him to succeed, obviously, but he’s not realistically going to be much of an upgrade currently even if everything goes right. And it’s much more probable that he’d currently be WORSE than what we have. Because hitting is VERY hard, and our lineup is actually quite good at it.

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  7. TT Bone – Are you putting Kemp in LF with that lineup?

    I’ve got to believe that Kemp and Anthony are the first to go at the trade deadline. I’d love to see Anthony on the ML roster eventually but sorry to say, I don’t think it will be on the Phillies roster. This kid appears to be a pure hitter but we all know what happened to O’Hoppe. Just hope Dombrowski gets a controllable player in the trade.

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    1. Pigs have 31 games left before the MLB trade deadline…..Keaton Anthony so far, has already raked in his 8 AAA games…..maybe they want to showcase him vs more AAA pitching.

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      1. I think V1 hit the nail on the head, when Anthony is gone ….. we will regret it and he won’t be forgotten.

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    1. Don’t forget that we’re a half game behind the “historically good” Dodgers in overall standings and tied for first in the NL East.

      I think the funniest thing is how so many Phillies fans complain that we’re not a championship caliber team… as if we didn’t already win 2 out of 3 against both the Dodgers and the Cubs this year. So I’m supposed to believe the Dodgers and Cubs are both capable of winning a championship, but the Phillies are incapable of beating them in the playoffs? Okay…

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      1. i don’t believe they are good enough to win title not with that offense and that bullpen. I am surprised how well they are doing. With no offense, bad defense. And bad bullpen.

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        1. Once you’re in the playoffs, you just need to get hot at the right time. It’s surprisingly rare for the best team in baseball to win the World Series. We’ve already proven we’re capable of beating the best teams in baseball in a short series. So the only question is are we good enough to make the playoffs. Currently, we are easily good enough.

          Also, as bad as our bullpen is, our SP is even better than that. And they’re capable of completely covering for our ‘pen in the playoffs. Wheeler, Ranger, and Sanchez are an actual nightmare gauntlet for opposing teams to face. And then they have to get past one of Luzardo, Abel, Nola, or Painter (whoever is healthy and pitching the best). Meanwhile, the rest can be added to the bullpen to help out Kerkering, and now suddenly opposing hitters have to worry about getting our starters out of the game before the 7th. Which is no small task for those guys.

          As for our offense, they can be maddeningly inconsistent. But they can also be world beaters. We just gotta hope that at least two of our big guys go on a tear in the post season. Bryce pretty consistently does. If Trea can continue terrorizing pitchers ahead of him, that should be enough. Because you can’t pitch around Harper to get to Schwarbs. Even when Kyle’s cold, he’ll still launch a ball into orbit at a moment’s notice.

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    2. There are always 16 reasons why a personnel move of any type should not be made, won’t be made, etc. There are people on this site (and I’m not pointing a finger at you) who are conversant and can expound on those reasons. And the stats bear them out as they can point to deals not made.

      Maybe some were around as the Phils of the early 1980’s stagnated and aged out and more likely remember the Phils of 2011 and thereafter couldn’t keep their competitive window open.

      Whatever number of wins the Phils are on pace for, the team is showing signs that some of its pillars are breaking down physically while others are showing decline performance-wise.

      Baseball is a young man’s game. Having invested heavily in the free agent market with mixed results, it’s time to see if some homegrown talent can make a difference. The Phils don’t have the best history for this but the farm looks better than it has in a while.

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      2. The team is already doing that. Successful teams inject youth slowly over time, not wholesale.

        First we had Bohm and Stott. Then Marsh, Sanchez, Rojas, and Kerkering. Now Kemp, Abel, and Marchan.

        The team is giving the prospects chances to shine. Some are taking the opportunity and producing, others are not (Johnson, Mercado, Lazar…). But the team is not just stashing prospects and not using them. Heck, we’re perpetually one injury (to an OF) away from Crawford getting the call. And we KNOW Painter is coming up this year (health permitting, knock on wood).

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        1. It’s a mixed picture, neither all black nor all white. Here’s some push back:

          -Taijuan Walker and his bad deal denying an opportunity in the rotation for a prospect when Ranger was down at the beginning of the season

          -Castellanos and club enablers giving virtually every inning in RF to a vet better suited as a DH

          -Realmuto, who is declining precipitously offensively, playing to the point that identifying his successor is as unclear as ever

          -Marsh, who is somewhat up at the moment but is so often down, appears to be blocking the advancement of Justin Crawford,, hitting .342 with an .851 OPS at LV.

          Maybe it’s “Phillies seasonal affect disorder” with fans fat and happy in June only to become disgruntled in October. I’d like to see that curbed, at least the second part.

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          1. You’re putting way too much stock into our prospects, to be honest.

            Taijuan Walker hopped into the rotation because we DIDN’T have any SP prospects ready to make the jump. Coming into the year, Abel had major question marks about whether he could even stay in the AAA rotation and Painter was still working back from TJ. No other SP prospect was even in consideration.

            Casty is definitely a DH pretending to be a RF. But, for as frustrated as I get with him, his bat is miles better than pretty much every prospect in baseball. Casty, as a hitter, is the upper limit of what one can realistically expect from a prospect (sans those generational prospects like Trout, Harper, or Soto).

            The reason we don’t know who JT’s successor is has nothing to do with his play time, and everything to do with our best catching prospects being 2+ years away from contributing. Marchan looks like a capable backup, but his own health and his lack of hitting show he’s not currently “the guy.”

            Marsh isn’t blocking JP. If anything, Kepler is blocking him. But the real problem is there’s a dire lack of right-handed OFs in the system (and in MLB in general, to be honest). There was speculation that Crawford was gonna get called up anyways until he got hurt. But he wasn’t ready at the start of the year (or else he would have been called up while Marsh was hurt), and Marsh and Kepler are playing very well recently (Kepler is quietly hitting .290/.421/.645 in the past 10 games). So Crawford can take it slow to make sure there’s no lingering effects.

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            1. That’s an awful lot for mediocrity you’re defending there. In a few words, I’m hoping the Phils will look inside the organization a bit more before going outside at the deadline to resolve problems that have been building for a while. No one can make definitive statements on Crawford, Marchan, Kemp or now Anthony. No one. (Not you.) And that’s a pattern starting to look like a problem.

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            2. I’m not defending mediocrity, I’m advocating sanity. You don’t make wholesale changes to a team in first place. Especially not for unproven talent.

              A change here or there? Sure. Upgrading on the margins? Absolutely.

              But you’re calling for them to call up a guy who has 8 games in AAA to his name, and who also has no position to play on the current roster. He is by no means a guarantee to hit in the majors, let alone to do so right away. 99.99% of prospects struggle early on. 99% never become successful major leaguers at all. Look at Jackson Holliday. Consensus best prospect in baseball, demolished pitching at every stop of the minors. Hit below .190 in his first 60 games at the MLB level, and has only been an okay hitter so far this year.

              And it’s fine to carry a young guy while he struggles and adjusts. But you can only carry a finite number of those guys. So why would we try to force Anthony onto the lineup when he’s likely to struggle AND we’d have to play at least one person out of position to do so? Why not just let him prove it at AAA for a little while and see what we need a little later in the year?

              The Phillies are letting the young guys get a shot. They’re just not doing it all at once so that we can keep winning games while it happens.

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  9. Am I missing something or does Moniak have similar numbers to Kepler for $8.75 million less per year?

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    1. Similar, but worse. He’s also getting a little boost from Coors (.824 OPS at home, .711 away).

      Still, no one is happy with Kepler’s production on the whole. Although as I mentioned in a previous comment, he’s quietly been hitting very well recently. So hopefully he can earn his contract the rest of the way and in the playoffs.

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  10. Sitcomics – You make a really good point. A problem with Moniak is that he just doesn’t draw enough walks and Kepler is a better defender. But money wise, you nailed it.

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  11. Dan K, nobody is talking about wholesale changes. But with Harper out and Anthony raking, demoting Eaton Wilson to save Buddy Kennedy is a loser’s mentality which I’d hope you wouldn’t endorse. Kody Clemens, Weston Wilson, Cal Stevenson, Buddy Kennedy. The Phils treat their treys as if they were aces. Bad poker players.

    I wish the Phils would pink slip Taijuan tonight. He’s helping the Mets as much or more as when he wore a Mets’ uniform. Don’t defend mediocrity.

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    1. But that’s the problem; promoting Anthony at this time would necessitate whole sale changes. Demoting Wilson to keep Kennedy makes sense. Wilson wasn’t justifying a roster spot, and Kennedy plays multiple positions.

      But Anthony ONLY plays 1B. And we can’t waste a bench spot on that, plus we wouldn’t want him to only get into the game once a week. So to get Anthony playing time, we’d either need to demote Kemp, or Bohm/Kemp would have to get hurt.

      Without either of those happening, we need to make multiple changes to accommodate him. Namely, one of the three would have to DH, Schwarber would have to play LF, and either Kepler would have to platoon with Casty, or he’d be our 5th OF and we’d have to lose Kennedy while only carrying one player to back up every infield spot.

      But yeah, I won’t argue against cutting Walker. He was having a pretty decent year, but he used up all of his rope last year and now he just threw the team overboard.

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    1. It might just be the shaky cam, but he looks so awkward legging out that triple haha.

      Congrats to the young man. Hope he someday replicates it in the big leagues.

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      1. utto then…better get Turner to CF! Lol … Kemp to 2B, Stott to SS, Harper to LF, Anthony to 1st. Basically the only way to even remotely works. I gotta imagine he is Trade bait… both probably.I just can’t get a pulse on if DD will go all in or dabble again.

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        1. Point is the Kemp has quickly become the weakest hitter on the team. Lowest .ops in the lineup.

          He has shown no power, has 1 bb in 50 PA’s, and has multiple base running issues in 2 weeks. Maybe it gets better but clamoring for the latest “hot” prospect to come and save the offense is fool’s gold.

          Maybe Anthony will turn out well but a fast start in AAA doesn’t make him a future star and it doesn’t make him better than what they already have.

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          1. I don’t see anyone on here claiming what you are disclaiming. No one uses the word Savior in connection with any prospect. The performance of one prospect brought up has nothing to do with how the next prospect may fare. Before burying Kemp, recall Mike Schmidt and his rookie year .196 batting average.

            As the trade deadline approaches, the team knows what it has for much of the roster. The shame of it all would be to lose some prospect who ends up shining simply because the Phils couldn’t take a cursory look when the opportunity arose.

            You and I would likely agree that neither undrafted prospect — Kemp or Anthony — would bring back a bundle in a trade. We don’t know yet if they’re gold or fool’s gold, sterling silver or tinsel.

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  14. Mendez not only hit for the cycle last night but he also stole a base and had an OF assist. That’s filling a stat sheet!

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  15. Ryan Degges

    2024 draft pick went 7 inn, 3 Hits, 0 runs, 4 Ks

    so far

    12 games 49 inn, 47 Ks , 2.02 ERA, 3-0

    Clearwater

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      1. I was able to see it live on the MLB thing. It was really cool. JT was right behind. They both were sliding at the same time. I tried to get a picture of the replay, but they did not show it later on. But still really cool.

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          2. I have seen a few similar type plays over time, but I do think they may have been the closest together. I was keeping Ruff updated on the score as the Philles started added some runs. I was able to see the live break ins on MLB Strike Zone. Basically, they were flipping back and forth between Brewer’s kid pitcher, Yanks vs O’s and Phillies vs Mets. They switched from Phillies when pitching change was made and came back with Stott up. Of course, I did not know who all was on base and he hit maybe the first pitch I saw. Why I did not get a pic live. The first runner would be out if JT had touched home plate first. You see that once in a while where the trail runner passes the runner ahead of him.

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  17. Braves just put Sale on the IL with broken rib. Injured it making a diving play in 9th inning of his last start. Atlanta’s season is basically over at this point.

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    1. Well, they weren’t lying when they said they wouldn’t trade him…

      That’s a shame. Sale is a HOF-caliber pitcher, putting the finishing touches on his resume for the voters. Baseball is better when he’s healthy. Hopefully he recovers well.

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      1. Nola has something similar….60 day IL for him…..I can see Sale possibly back in 6/8 weeks. But at his age the healing may take a little longer than expected.

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        1. Yes that is true-leads MLB in key categories……but he is young and will get many more chances again….Wheeler may not….then there is the other oddity….have they ever awarded a Cy Young to a pitcher with a losing record…as it stands now he is 2 down in the win column after approx half his seasonal starts…16 starts….maybe will get 32 or 33 total starts….Buccos do not give him any support.

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          1. A relief pitcher….in 2003, Eric Gagne, won the NL Cy Young with a 2-3 record. ,,,,but 55 saves. He had a remarkable season as a closer, but his team struggled, resulting in his losing record In 2010, Felix Hernandez won the AL Cy Young with a 13-12 record.

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          2. Technically yes; Eric Gagne. But he was a reliever.

            There’s also Trevor Bauer (2020, 5-4), deGrom (2018, 10-9), and Felix Hernandez (2010, 13-12) who barely had positive win records.

            I’m certainly hoping Wheeler wins it finally. But currently, Skenes is in the lead.

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  18. Just heard on the broadcast that when Harper is back, Kemp will platoon LF. That means Keaton Anthony will only get a shot this year due to injury.

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  20. Abel had no secondary pitch today, Mets weren’t chasing his curveball. He’s got the velocity but needs to work on his command.

    Questioning some of the pitch selection by JT behind the dish today. Seems like they’ve been hanging a lot of breaking balls and challenging the hitters a lot.

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    1. He’s not consistent enough with his secondary pitches. And the Mets don’t chase a lot so I was eager to see what would happen. Abel got a learning experience from a professional lineup. Abel needs to work on his changeup to get lefties off his fastball

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  22. that’s a damn wide strike zone the ump had in bot 7th. Turner definitely walked on 4 pitches. Would’ve been nice to see Schwarber up with the bases loaded vs leading off the next inning

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  23. spitballing …

    Nola to Angels for Trout, Angels still eat some salary … Phillies try to resign Ranger… Maybe reconsider Schwarber at that point – Alonso or Ozuna (who I dislike a lot)

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    1. Until Trout expresses a desire to leave Anaheim, there’s no point talking about a trade involving him. He has full control over what team he plays for. And if he was willing to suffer through mediocrity for his entire prime due to loyalty, there’s no reason to think it’s changed now.

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    2. Call Dombrowski and tell him to get it dome by the end of the month when Nola’s10/5 rights vest.Sentimentality must be served. Spending on Trout in no way gets the Phils closer to signing anybody in free agency. Just a justifiably unthinkable proposal and I say that as someone who regards thinking outside the box.

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    3. It’s easier for me to see Trout moving to the Dodgers for a package smaller than what the Bosox got for a healthy Devers. Still, less than a ! % chance. Nola,in his current state, offers no value to anyone. Because of his contract, Nola offers 1/10 of the value of a Chris Sale.

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      1. I was spitballing but kind of feels like a match could be there unless the league thinks Nola is toast… kind of like the league thinks of Trout. Injury plagued. I can see a match with some more pieces involved/money being worked out. I think most of the Phillies Phans would rather see Ranger resigned than Nola, given the choice at this point. That sort of fueled the idea, to find a way to make that work. Swapping Trout’s deal for Nola coudl make sense, with the Phillies SR depth. That said, Nola better not be done, he’s got a lot left on that deal. Im confident it’s fixable issue for him.

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  25. Seen enough. Time for Dombrowski to get serious with David Robertson on a partial year deal with a team option/buyout for next season, if necessary. The Phils are saving 1/2 of Alvarado’s salary this year which should pretty much cover Robertson.

    That would leave a need for still one other reliever but spending money alone rather than trying to acquire 2 relievers by trade makes sense in what should be a tight market.

    I don’t get any sense that Romano is coming back and who knows what the Phils will do ith Alvarado. Strahm is drifting away from being reliable and the farm system offers nothing.

    The more you look at the alternatives, the better Robertson looks.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I hope , Dombrowski can somehow get owner to eat some of Walkers contract, and if what ,I read is correct sign Ranger to 50 million 3 yr deal. Abel right now, doesnt have enough to be a starter in majors. Ranger just Makes our rotation so much better . That bullpen is terrible. Even if Alvarado was not suspended. Ross, Mercado. Lazar. Strahm Romano. Terrible

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      1. LoL Ranger 3 yrs $50 million

        hahahahahahahaha. That’s a good one. I’m thinking minimum 4 yrs $120. Injury history might keep him from 6-7 yr deals but someone will throw him $25-$30 million a yr.

        Also Strahm and Romano aren’t horrible. Ross is exactly who he is.

        If you take Abel out of the rotation who are you replacing him with?

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          2. If Ranger keeps pitching like he has, he’s going to get paid a LOT and well more than what you suggested. Right now, he’s pitching like a CY Young candidate and it’ not the first time he’s done this, although he’s never done it for a full season. But if he finishes like he’s started, I agree it’s going to be in the $25-30 million range and rest assured that Scott Boras will extract every dollar from the team who signs him. The deal will probably be in the range of 5-7 years, again, assuming he pitches something like this the rest of the year. I’ve already predicted the team will sign Luzardo OR Ranger long term – but it won’t be both. But I could see the team signing Ranger and letting Luzardo walk after 2026 (after tendering him) – very possible.

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    1. I keep wondering at what point will they bring up Crawford and move Marsh to LF. Rojas is struggling badly at the plate and doesn’t seem to play much of late, he’s got options so they could send him down to work on things vs just sitting.

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      1. Rojas is their only RH outfielder who can play CF. The lefty hitting Crawford won’t take his place.

        Crawford’s only path barring injury is either Marsh or Kepler being moved/released. Don’t expect either of those things to happen.

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          1. Yeah, no offense to anybody here, but it seems like everyone likes to create reasons “why not” to do things.

            Otto Kemp doesnt have a set position, Crawford is a lefty and hits too many grounders, etc etc. But if we dont like what we have, whats the harm in trying? Id rather have Crawford up facing a LHP in the majors than Rojas.

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    2. Steve. I mentioned this to Ruff a few days ago. Since I am in Indiana, I only get the Cubs broadcasters on Phillies games. No big deal there. But they were saying that Kepler when he was in high school got a tennis scholarship to a school in Germany. At times his swing resembles a forehand ground stroke that a tennis player makes. I had kind of mentioned to Ruff a few days earlier that his swing did not remind me of his days early on in Minny. I thought he was going to be really good then.

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  27. Phils relief pitchers gave up 7 runs last night. I was @ Lehigh Valley last night and their relievers, auditioning for a promotion, also gave up 7 runs. Lucas Sims, Seth Johnson, Daniel Robert all failed their audition. The 1 who passed was Joel Kuhnel, retired 5 batters, 11 Pitcher, 10 strikes. For the year, Kuhnel has 4 BB’s in 31.1 inns. On the other hand, Koyo Aoyagi has 23 BB’s in 19.1 inns. Andrew Painter pitched good, but not great and left with the lead. Justin Crawford had 3 BB’s, 2 SB’s and had some great defense in CF. On 1 play, he caught a ball in deep CF with his back to the field…on that play it was a SF, with runners from both 3B, and 2B scoring after tagging-up. I guess I should have gone to see the Fightins, they won 12-2

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    1. I noticed how high his career BABIP was the other day when I was looking at his splits. I didn’t realize it ranked that high historically, though. That’s crazy.

      I guess it’s kind of the perfect storm where he’s fast, hits the ball hard or strikes out when he swings, and doesn’t hit too many homers so his hard hit balls count towards BABIP.

      Like

      1. i was thinking , trying to see a way to keep Ranger, and move on from Walker and Nola. Wondering if we eat money. And how much would it take. And would Middleton do it. Ranger, Wheeler, Sanchez, Lazurdo. Painter. Potential is unbelievable

        Liked by 1 person

      2. Respectfully, I just don’t know if hes gonna get better. Hes no spring chicken anymore. It wouldn’t really surprise me if he did go to AAA and hover around .300 again, then come back and be the same guy he is. Hes a fine 5th outfielder in the MLB. The speed and defense has value especially late in games. But he might just not be a guy who should be starting at this level, especially for a competing team.

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        1. shhhhhh …… psst (he’s going to get traded) … just hope no one saw him wandering around 2nd, getting plunked in the head and making mental miscues and we stand a chance. Shhhhhhh, on the sky, ok!

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      3. Romus. I do not see that happening. Rojas is best coming in 7th inning or later for defense. Just my 2 cents but he really does not have a consistent swing that is probably going to get much better. Someone has mentioned that watching him bat is like watching someone chop wood. Also, he is still very inconsistent bunting. Once in a while. Aware it is much easier for a good bunter to bat left-handed. But there are some you see from the right side who do ok. I may be totally off but to me he is the extra outfielder. I do not see him being sent down this season.

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  30. I want to also weigh in on Abel. A lot of people were disappointed in his results in the last start and, sure, I get it. But I saw a lot more than was encouraging than disappointing. First, Abel has great stuff and it’s just going to get better. His FB is sitting 96-98 and he’s not bad at locating it, although he needs to get better. His breaking stuff is also not bad. I also liked that he kept his composure and worked out of the inning after giving up 3 homers and did not implode – good for him! He needs to work on his secondary stuff and he needs to improve his FB command, but let’s be clear, who he is now is what we had hoped for when he was drafted. He still has a very high ceiling and whatever they do, they should not sell low on him. There is so much to like with Mick Abel.

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    1. Thank you! I agree with this completely and was going to post something along these lines. Hes gonna have ups and downs, hes a rookie in the majors for the first time. It doesnt mean hes “not a ML pitcher” or anything like that. Id much rather have him on the hill every five days than Taijuan.

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      1. Agreed. When people he make grand pronouncements about Mick Abel never being better than like a 3/4, I think they are out of their minds. Yes, it’s possible, he stagnates and is never better than that, but it’s also possible he turns out to be a solid #2 and one of the 15-20 best starters in baseball. Put it this way, Nick Pivetta ranks around 30th in pitcher’s WAR – he’s pitched like a solid #2 this year and Abel’s ceiling is quite a bit higher than Pivetta’s. So, people, cut it out – it can take 4-5 years for a starting pitcher to fully develop. Mick Abel is doing great so far.

        Liked by 2 people

    2. On Crawford – it seems nobody is focused on this, but putting aside his outstanding bat-to-ball skills (he’s like a magician with that), he’s done something this year that is huge to his development. His walk rates have gone through the ceiling this year. As a player who will thrive primarily through defense and the ability to get on base, this is HUGE. His walk rate is over 11 percent and it just continues to grow. He has a every chance to be a really solid big league outfielder. Get used to the fact that he doesn’t do things in a traditional way. His hits are often weird and ugly – but that’s part of his game – just as getting hit by pitches are a weird part of Otto Kemp’s game (seriously, it improves his OBP by like 20-40 points – it’s absolutely part of Kemp’s game).

      Liked by 1 person

    3. Catch. I agree 100%. I told Ruff I would not move him though he may be the best trade chip the Phillies have at the moment who they may let go. No idea on that. It appears he has made great strides with his control since last season. I did not think he pitched awful Saturday night. He has not yet refined his location on his pitches yet, but it is getting there. Sanchez was very similar a couple seasons ago. Good and bad and maybe both in the same outing. There is a really fine line between being really good and being very average. Location. Location. Luzardo may be best current example. When he locates his pitches, he is really good. When they are in the middle of the plate they get pounded. Abel is a keeper for me, but I do not make the decisions.

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  31. That was a great series all around. Some will say process over results but in the case of 162 games and the record right now I’m taking the results.

    Needing the series it was gutsy putting Kemp in LF unless they felt or had data that said not a lot of action out there with Luzardo on the hill. But as it was you could see once they got Peterson out they would pinch hit Marsh for Kennedy and move Kemp to 1B.

    Its hard to claim the first half of a season doesn’t matter too much when you still need to accumulate enough wins to be playoff bound at the end.

    But looking back to 2022 it is all about how hot a team is going into those final weeks.

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  32. I think and hope Abel is safe at the trade deadline. Nola may be back nut likely not flashing like the Nola of old by then. With Painter, it’s a step by step process.

    Taijuan has shown that, aside from what he is now as a starter, he’s not cut out out to serve in a high leverage role out of the pen. He’s an emergency starter and bullpen filler at this point. I wouldn’t expect him to be moved soon by the Phils nor would I expect to see him on any post-season roster.

    I’m getting a similar vibe with Michael Mercado and Seth Johnson. They’re unpromising starters who haven’t adapted to the point of being useful out of the pen.

    The Phils needed to go 2 for 3 with Walker, Mercado and Johnson to shape a BP with parts from within. Instead they’re 0 for 3 with a clear need to look outside.

    Nola is going nowhere. At this stage, with his health uncertainty and contract, he doesn’t meet the needs of any team. He could return and be fine but it’s not a certainty or a bankable gamble teams would want to take.

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    1. I don’t see Johnson or Mercado as being contributors for the Phillies anytime soon. They might be productive major leaguers a few years down the line, but this year? I highly doubt it, especially Mercado, who has gotten crushed with regularity. Walker is sort of a third wheel here, I would expect little to nothing from him, and if he helps, so much the better. I do like that the Phillies are giving all decent arms in the minors tryouts before they spend a lot of capital in a trade – it may not work out, but it’s a great idea. Even if one guy (Max Lazar?) becomes a mop up man, it’s a pretty good idea. Ultimately, for the postseason, it’s hard to see how at least one or two starters don’t become playoff BP arms – where Nola fits in in all of this is hard to tell.

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      1. I think the back half of Nola’s deal will look a lot like Kershaw or Wainwright. He’ll compete, he’ll give you starts not necessarily innings with some periods of brilliance and some of getting whacked LOL.

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    2. i just wonder if we eat 5 million a yr. And Nola is at19 million. You still think no one who bite?

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      1. Rocco. I would be surprised. Even if Nola comes back ok, he still is what he is. He almost always has an inning in the middle of the game that is location is off, and he gets hit hard and many end up in the stands. Who knows what happens. He may come back and have a long career like Jamie Moyer getting by on breaking balls and location. One never knows what is going to happen. But he has a big contract now to rest on.

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      2. Nola earns 10/5 rights by the end of the month. He could waive them but why would he? He’s worked for years as a pillar for a team in quest of a ring. What a slap in the face of a well-liked veteran.

        But it’s more than that. Nobody knows what kind of pitcher Nola will turn out to be. Unlike Chris Sale, Nola wasn’t pitching well before he went on the IL Will Nola come back offering any value? No one knows. The Phils kicking in $5 M a year doesn’t change it.

        Taking off one’s Phillies goggles, for any need a team might have, there is a better, less expensive option. Nola is not young, he’s not cheap, he’s not healthy and he’s not coming off a good start to his season. He gets you nothing in a trade and an awful lot of bad will from every quarter if they tried to trade him now.

        Liked by 1 person

  33. Rojas did his best impression of Odubal and Caesar on the base paths last night. That was some terrible baserunning. It took a ball to his coconut on a pickoff to calm him down.

    And on Walker I believe that the Phillies will hold onto him into next preseason and try to find a team that is willing and desperate enough to pay half of his $18M salary.

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    1. Posted a similar comment to D-Dan earlier. Perhaps a pre-game “thump to the bump” would get him game ready!

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  34. o d – Went back and saw your post. Do you believe someone might trade for him? Even with Rojas bearing down on him, Kemp held his ground and made the catch on a fly ball. Remember when Sosa deferred to Rojas on a ball that was clearly his and it fell in front of Rojas?

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  35. Some have their concerns over Crawford’s swing, and how it will translate at the MLB level. I cannot comment on that..

    But, if he came up through the minors 30 years ago, I suspect he would be considered a top 10 prospect. The speed, batting average, walk rates, etc – would have put him in the elite tier.

    I get the concerns with his swing – conceptually – but has MLB gone too far with valuing launch angle etc? Everyone does not need to fit that mold to be hugely valuable..

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    1. The Twins are going nowhere this year,. I’m wondering what it would take to pry right handed 31 year old Byron Buxton away. He’s had an OPS over .800 for 6 of the last 7 years. He’s on an affordable contract. Has an injury history. They would want prospects. Maybe they could throw in a reliever — Duran or Jax. The Twins owe use one. Clemens was given to them and he has an OPS of of .787. What would it cost the Phils?

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      1. For Byron Buxton alone, it would start with Crawford and Abel. Maybe even have to throw in Jean Cabrera as well.

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        1. I don’t know what the Twins would want for a 31 y/o often hurt Buxton. I know he is owed the remainder of $15 million for this season and $45.4 for his age 32-33-34 seasons.

          The most games he’s ever played in a season was 140 and that was back in 2017. The last time he played over 100 games (102) was last year.

          I don’t think he would command as much as you think. I certainly would not give up Crawford for him and probably not Abel.

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          1. The Phillies gave up Starlyn Caba, a top 100 prospect, for the oft injured Jesus Luzardo.

            Obviously Buxton is injury prone, but when he’s not, he’s a superstar with the bat AND the glove. And he’s under control for a reasonable salary. Getting Buxton would make Crawford expendable. For sure Crawford would be the centerpiece of any deal involving Buxton. If you can get away with not including Abel, that would be good but I’m sure the Twins would want another piece, especially for 3 years of control.

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  36. I can’t remember the last time the Reds did this, but they DFAd Jeimer Candelario and effectively ate the remaining value of his contract (approximately $22.5M). Now if the Reds can do this, certainly the Phillies can also.

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  37. We need some surveys up in here!

    How many people are ok with trading Able/Crawford (for a non rental peice)?

    Do we have any untouchables on the farm at this point?

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    1. I may be like many people on here saying that no prospect is untouchable under every circumstance. But if a player or players coming back offer a higher degree of certainty of success over a sustained period of time, I would consider the trade.

      In trying to access what Dombrowski might do, I think he very well might part with Abel and Crawford if it would bring back Byron Buxton. This assumes the Phils like the medical records on Buxton. Some would say the Twins could get more for Buxton.

      I’ve complained how weak the Phils OF continues to be and that would change with Buxton, a guy under contract through 2028.

      I hear Luis Robert’s name floated out there but his contract is less appealing as is the player. A team exercising options on him for 2026 and 2027 would pay him $20 M a season. So technically, he would not be a rental. But to me Robert is a guy who’s been paid more money than he ever thought he would make and as much as he needs. He’s got ‘buyer beware’ written all over him. So I wouldn’t offer either Abel or Crawford for him. Robert remains a White Sox because they value his potential while everyone else is looking at on-field performance.

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      1. The Twins trade you suggest is an organizational changing move. Buxton is their franchise player. Unlike the Red Sox, I’d assume the Twins would then shop him around. I dunno if the Phillies are prepared for a bidding war like that.

        What about Cutch and Bednar? Not exactly the same thing but Cutch is a solid RH bar we need. Bednar is a lefty and a closer who is controllable for 2026 as well.

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        1. I don’t know if Cutch is really going to move the needle in LF. I would rather roll with the Kemp/Kepler platoon.

          Bednar is right handed and he’s having a bit of a bounce back year. He’s under control for 2026 so his cost is going to be up there. With a bidding war, the cost might be Mick Abel.

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          1. Damn he is right handed. LoL I’ve even been watching his games. Still i think he’s really solid closer. Controllable for 1 yr. He’d help right the ship in the Phillies bullpen.

            Cutch doesnt look exciting at first, but he shouldn’t cost a ton. Kemp just doesn’t have power. Cutch gives you consistent ABs. LF would be a disaster of course.

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            1. I don’t know how you say Kemp doesn’t have power… pretty good walk/SO numbers and slugging in the minors. He had 14 home runs this year for Lehigh, homering every 16 ABs. He hasn’t gotten to it in the majors much yet, but doesn’t mean he doesn’t have power. A little early to tell.

              Liked by 1 person

            2. It often takes guys some time to show the power they demonstrated in the minors at the major league level. I am not worried about Kemp showing power – it’s there. I am more concerned with his being able to handle breaking pitches and making regular contact. If he makes regular contact, the other issues will take care of themselves. So happy they are trying to find ABs for him because his upside is still very intriguing and he’s been good on defense too!

              Liked by 1 person

        2. I don’t Cutch would consent to be traded and might retire if he was. He has clearly stated that he only has interest in playing in P-burgh. He is playing because he likes the organization and is a foundational player in the team’s history.

          Bednar is a P-burgh native and favorite son. He is likely to get moved for the right price – meaning it will be high I think. The other option in their bullpen is D Santana who has had a great year – but is the prototypical volatile bullpen arm.

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  38. Buxton and Duran are very intriguing. Sounds like it would take a lot, and also sounds like the Mets could be in on such players. Those 2 sound just as good if not better than Miller & Rooker from previous years. If they did make that move, DD still needs to add 1 more BP arm. The BP is fine for the regular season, but the way Topper manages during the playoffs, he needs more. Wouldn’t be surprised if they kick the tires on trading for Sir A. Lastly, you can only make this trade if none of the other teams do a big move. Say… the dodgers trade for Trout or something similar… yeah.. hold your ammo.

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  39. I have seen a couple of mentions of Phillies possible interest in Jake Bird of the Rockies for BP. I have never seen him pitch. He has good 2025 numbers and is under team control till 2028. Any thoughts?

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    1. Bird has had appearances really solid year. But I feel it might be an outlier year. I would only want him as a backup plan.

      His K/9 the previous 3 years sat around 7.8….it’s over 11 this year.

      Also his H/9 sat around 9.5-9.7 the previous 2 years. This year he’s at 7.9

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      1. Last year, the Phils added Estevez to a BP anchored by Hoffman, Alvarado, Strahm and, to a lesser extent, Kerkering.

        This year the pen is anchored by Kerkering, a lesser Strahm. and only partially reliable Romano and Banks. Alvarado will return but will have no role in the post-season.

        I don’t think Dombrowski will assume that successful starting pitchers can transition unrehearsed into important roles in the pen. Maybe Ranger, with his track record, can slot into a high leverage relief role. But it’s not enough.

        Liked by 1 person

  40. The only guys I’m not trading are Painter, Crawford and Escobar…

    Trade anyone else just not for a rental. Especially trade Kepler if you can and clear the way for Crawford in CF and Marsh in LF.

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    1. Who’s trading for Kepler? There’s a higher probability that the Phillies DFA Kepler, move Marsh to LF and promote Crawford.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. As of this Friday, Kepler will only be owed $5M on his contract….if the Phillies eat it….there may be some team that will take him on for the stretch drive….maybe get a lottery tix prospect in return or an AAA relief arm.

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    2. 100% Willing to trade anyone.

      I usually have tiers:

      Tier 1 – Don’t wanna give up –

      Painter/Miller/Escobar/ Tait

      Tier 2 – Only for Controllable Peices –

      Crawford/Miller

      Tier 3 – EVERYONE ELSE –

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      1. Miller in 2 separate tiers? Personally, I wouldn’t put Keaton Anthony in the bargain bin category. My tier 3 would be a “shift the conversation” category. Meaning, players I’d like to hold on to and encourage interest elsewhere. But when push comes to shove, guys I’d part with if a good deal was at stake.

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        1. Meant Able/Crawford Tier 2. Really need an edit button.

          Keaton Anthony is blocked. If not by Harper, by someone with more power. Phillies window is now.

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  41. Buxton is a marvelous player – always has been. However, his history is riddled with innumerable injuries – so much so that you really can’t count on him to be there. His price would be very high and he comes with major drawbacks – he K’s too much ; is streaky whenever he plays, which isn’t alot. No thanks –

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    1. Buxton had a 5 WAR season before turning 24. He’s not at that level now which is why his name comes up as the trade deadline approaches. His injury history is a concern which is why you’d need a thorough medical review of his records.

      We value Ranger even though he doesn’t post for 30 starts a season and never has.

      You adjust. If the Phils had Buxton, I’d approach the off-season with confidence the team could deal with a diet of opposing lefties or righties.

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      1. Phils lucked out so far on Luzardo in terms of injury. Just as soon not press our luck with Buxon, though he’s a heck of a players.

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    1. If he gets the job…maybe the Phillies will trade Nori to the Yankees and eventually he will be in the same city as his father….unless he gets fired by the time Dante reaches the Big Apple.

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  43. I don’t pay too much attention to the minors below Reading. Not in my neighborhood so to speak. Are there any pitchers coming along that might be special to replace Painter and Abel? Read of a big guy Stewart or Steward that might be promising, any merit to that rumor?

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    1. Pitching is extremely thin behind Painter and Abel. Most of the guys pegged as breakouts have struggled, merely met expectations, or gotten hurt this year (Alex McFarlane, Jean Cabrera, and Moises Chace, respectively). They have some interesting bullpen arms that are a little further away (like Saul Teran and Titan Hayes), but they’re not going to help this year. You’ve also got a talent on the shelf in Wen Hui Pan. Pitching development, which used to be an org strength, is pretty barren right now from what I see and read. I can’t speak to the low-low minors. That’s beyond my capacity for attention. Wouldn’t really want to trade Painter or Abel, but I suppose they have the draft in a few weeks to try and identify some solid arms. They’ve had success moving a few talented pitchers along somewhat quickly in recent years (e.g., Nola and Painter (outside of his injury, he’s moved quickly)).

      Like

  45. You have to grant its extremely difficult to say keep this guy trade that guy when you don’t know what the return pieces are.

    What I do know is this FO has chased RP rentals the past 3 seasons to no avail. I’m not inclined to think they can finally get it right.

    Estevez FWIW was having one of the best closer seasons of last year and that still didn’t get you past the Mets.

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  46. Seth Halvorsen is a guy I would pursue though the price tag for him may be much higher than we’d like to pay given he is controllable through 2030. The Phillies drafted him in 2021, but he of course did not sign. He would definitely cost us at least one of our top 7 – 10 prospects and then a secondary piece…total speculation based in part by Bowden speculating the Mets trade their No. 10 prospect Drew Gilbert and No. 20 prospect for him. Over the last handful or more years, the Rockies have not been willing to trade any of their guys so I find it hard to believe that they would trade him for less than what we would want to give up

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    1. Don….we have a new pitch in baseball…………”…Duran is one of the best relievers in the sport, thanks to his nasty stuff headlined by a fastball that averages 100.2 mph and a splinker that sits at 97.5 mph.”

      The splinker…..must be a mixed salad of the sweeper, slider, split and sinker.

      Only thrown with the thumb and baby finger! That’s a joke.

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      1. Romus. You are so funny. But I have seen him pitch a couple times. He is really good. I catch bits and pieces of that salad flipping through the channels from game to game once in a while. Since Minny is playing so well he probably will demand a lot. Who knows.

        I am not sure if your 2nd paragraph is the joke or the last one. But does not matter. When I pitched fastpitch softball I learned to throw a changeup as you describe with those 2 fingers. I threw it with the same motion as the drop, and it was my strikeout pitch. That pitch allowed me to pitch several years at a fairly high level. Again, you are so funny. We just called it a changeup back in the 70s. See how things have evolved over the years. Now the same grip sits at 97.5. Mine maybe around 55. That is progress.

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        1. Don…..new pitches are invented every few years now. When they show in the first inning all the pitches a starter will throw….someday there will be 10/11 pitches. I am waiting for the ‘slinky’ pitch to unravel on the scene soon…..that will be a combination of the slurve and the splitter with a touch of the sweeper.

          Never knew you were a fast-pitch softball pitcher…..King Don and His Court? Use to watch them in the sixties when my father umpired fast pitch…. had a team in Philly called Flatiron that was great.

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          1. Romus. I will be quick. Seems lots of pitchers have up to 6 pitches or so now. So, your prediction is not too far off.

            After coming back from South Alabama had a guy from Detroit who knew I was decent athlete teach me to pitch. I could/cannot throw hard overhand then or now after hurting shoulder. Took couple years but got decent. Kid I went to Ball State with pitched for one of these northern Indiana teams. Got them to take me. Won 1 state title and one runner-up. Best for me was a 27-3 season.

            One of the 3 teams I played for did play Eddie Feigner and his Court one night. I had a previous commitment so missed it. There were lots of really good guys from New Zealand. Best I ever saw was a guy named Allen Coleglazier. He was awesome and won some World titles for Aurora out of Illinois. Believe they had a guy named Brubaker who was all world for that team. Never saw him.

            Just hoping the Phillies can continue to play well like they have recently. Watching Mets and Braves right now till Phillies come on.

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  48. Adolis García’s names been floating about some.. not sure what kind of payout that looks like.. abel/crawford/draft picks?

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  49. Former Phillies great and tragically traded prospect Ben Brown has been sent down to AAA. Suspect he will eventually return as a bullpen arm.

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    1. On Ben Brown…..watched him pitch the other day….got tagged…but also learned……at 17 years old, after getting off to a strong start in his junior baseball season,] he suffered a  ruptured appendix, was hospitalized for a week and lost 30lbs . After his hospitalization and weight loss, at least five colleges withdrew their scholarship offers to Brown. Nonetheless, he added back 15lbs of muscle and finished his senior year with a 1.18 ERA in that New York league. Commiteed to Siena….but Phillies came along and drafted him in the 33rd round….now a mLB pitcher….good for him. He will be back.

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      1. He is the cautionary tale for everyone thinking that Abel is a future rotation staple. They are similar pitchers who have big fastballs and the makings of a good breaking pitch but struggle with leaving too many mistakes in the middle of the plate.

        Both guys need to improve their command and develop a 3rd pitch to use vs. lefty hitters.

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      2. Back when Brown was at the Complex, the Big East played their championship games down here. As a season ticket holder, tickets to the games were provided as part of the season ticket package. I went to one of the games that Seton Hall played, and Ben was watching. I sat with him and asked didn’t he get enough baseball during the day. He said he wanted to see the Hall because the coach told him he would never play pro or even college ball.

        A couple weeks later, I watched him strike out 16 batters in six innings against the GCL Tigers (2 H, 0 R, 1 BB).

        I disagree with the comment regarding the pitches that Abel and Brown throw. From Complex days forward, Abel has had a fuller repertoire of pitches, Brown got by predominantly with a fastball. Abel has had to refine his secondary pitches; Brown had to develop/learn them.

        Brown had TJ surgery a week before or after Kyle Young (fall of 2019, I believe). They began their rehab at the Complex around the same time. Kyle suffered setbacks and retired. Brown persevered and was back pitching in 2021. The lost Covid season actually benefitted him since he lost minimal develop time.

        Like

      3. Ben Brown is only 25. He has the velo to become a quality MLB pitcher. He is maybe a tweak or pitch away.

        These kids come through throwing 96-97 and think that’s going to be enough.

        It’s not…

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      1. Just from reading boxscores – Campbell and Rodriquez to Reading, Awasu and Dragoo to Jersey Shore.

        Like

  51. If we run out that lineup and won’t even send a guy on a ball in the left field corner with two AAA hitters due up, we may as well just forfeit games against tough lefty starters to save our SP the hassle.

    Like

    1. Omg you can’t run out, that lineup against left hand pitching. Rojas looks like a little league. Kennedy, really? Make the move now. You have to figure out a way to sign Ranger. Unless he gets you a stud right hand bar. Which won’t happen. Imo. Crawford has to come up.

      Liked by 1 person

        1. Romus Sending Rojas down. Won’t change that he can’t hit a fastball or curve. If you follow triple A.So many of those pitchers top out at 91-92He can’t hit 94- up.

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  52. I like Mick Abel. I think that he will be a pro pitcher for a long time. But I would absolutely trade him for Duran or Clase.

    1. Abel’s has not pitched as well as his ERA suggests. His FIP is 6.07. His xERA is 6.02. His hard hit rate is 56%. His average EV is 92.6 and his average LA is 17 degrees. Basically he gives up a lot of hard hit line drives and has been lucky so far. His LOB% is 100%. Obviously that is unsustainable. His K/9 is under 7. All of those point to a lucky pitcher. Luck will run out. I like the stuff but he really gets hit hard.

    2. We need an elite shut down closer. This is the time to go all in. We badly need a true 9th inning guy.

    Liked by 2 people

    2. I expect Abel to be traded and I think DeMartini may have played himself into a trade as well. There will definitely be moves for a relief arm or two plus a right handed OF.

      Like

      1. DeMartini was one of the guys I was hoping they keep. I honestly think the organization is open to trading anyone not named Painter.

        Like

  53. Assume Painter will be called up in the next few weeks, wonder if at that time, Ranger will be put on the trading block. Can see 7 AL contenders willing to take a shot on him-though Dave D. may get some enticing offers from some NL West teams….Dombrowski if he decides to trade him will surely not trade him to a NL team. Ranger could easily bring back a quality reliever PLUS one tier one prospect from an organization.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I just don’t get the …trade Ranger fanbase…

      Give me a team that’s not only going to give you a quality return but will be worth more than his production in the playoffs?

      Like as of now Ranger is my game #2 starter come playoffs.

      Like

      1. So far Dombrowski has been fairly conservative than the past Dombrowski of the Sox or Tiger era……and the results have shown over the last three progressively regressive years that he may not want those results again. He just may do something out of the ordinary next month.

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      2. If you do trade him yes you better nail the trade/return.

        Keep him and lose his playoff starts 1-0 as they did last night and just take the compensation pick next year.

        I’m of the opinion that they are headed towards a cliff the likes of what we experienced after 2012 and they are about to compound the issue thinking they are a closer and a RH bat away LOL

        Estevez and Hayes all over again

        If those were your issues last year why weren’t they addressed in the offseason?

        Like

    2. If you’re saying he doesn’t have the guts I agree. If you’re saying he should be afraid of losing to Ranger in the playoffs I don’t agree.

      He should look to get the closest thing to a can’t miss controllable MLB player/prospect that is offered.

      I’ve said many times over the years a team like the Phillies should never have to go into a full on rebuild with the payroll they can afford.

      And the BP is not the problem when you’re losing games where you only scored a run or two or even three with the cost of this lineup. But I guess the definition of insane is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result.

      Like

      1. What are you folks talking about? A contending team in the middle of a pennant race doesn’t trade a Cy Young-level pitching talent. They thank their lucky stars they HAVE a Cy Young-level pitching talent. And Dombrowski knows this. They aren’t trading Ranger – so let’s move on to other things. This is NOT happening, nor should it, regardless of whether Ranger is on the last year of his contract.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. I agree that, among the “big” prospects the Phillies have, the one most likely to be traded is Abel. Listen, I really like Mick Abel and think he has a bright future, but he’s the one prospect whose trade value is currently maximized and who they could afford to lose due to their SP depth.

          My view is that it would be hard to lose a prospect who has a good chance of becoming an elite major league player. The guys who have a good chance of doing that are, in my view, Painter, Escobar and maybe Aidan Miller (the performance has yet to match the prospect reviews) and, possibly, Eduardo Tait (although that’s very unclear right now). Notice I don’t include Abel or Crawford. I think Crawford’s going to have a good major league career and might even become a first division regular, but I highly doubt he’ll ever become a star. His value as a prospect is also high right now. In the right trade (and that’s a key question – what’s the right trade?) I’d be willing to move Crawford.

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          1. I’d trade Miller before Crawford. Miller has bust written all over him. I’m not calling it yet but he and Crawford are pretty much the same age.

            Crawford at 20 in AA OPS’d 834

            Miller at 21 thus far 720.

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        2. You never know what Dombrowski will do next month……he may go and get relief help on the margins….like they have done the past three years and how has that worked out! How many rings has that produced. Three years of consecutive regression.

          Or he may do something way out of the ordinary. Personally Ranger should stay….but Dombrowski may have other thoughts .

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          1. You’re not entirely wrong. The biggest missed opportunity, to me, was 2023. Yes, the hitting went silent at the worst time, but, truthfully, incompetent relief pitching lost them that series and if they had won, they had a really good chance of winning the WS. In 2022, the Astros were just a better team. In 2023, they just hit a buzz saw – they weren’t going to win that series no matter what.

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      2. The definition of insane is looking at a team with one of the best records in baseball and thinking they need to start trading away starting pitching, etc. Look around the league, EVERY team has games where they get shut out, get blown out, don’t play well, etc.

        Phillies are one of about 6-8 teams in baseball with a realistic chance of winning the WS.

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  54. Okay, trade time. Abel straight up for Mason Miller. Do you do it? I might. Miller’s K numbers are still ridiculous as is the stuff. The team retains control over him for 5 postseasons. That a lot with a talent as great as his, think I’d risk that for a guy who could bounce back in a big way.

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    1. Miller has seemed mortal to me this year. Plus his pitching style is begging for tj sooner than later. I kinda say no, though I think the As would want waaaaay more.

      I agree with many of your other points though on which prospects look like impact ones and what not.

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      1. Yeah, I put the rabbit in the hat by saying “if” you got that offer, would you take it?

        On TJ surgery, it seems that knocks out many more starters than it does relievers so I’m not too worried about that issue. And, yes, he’s struggling a bit now, but that’s the only time you could get a talent as enormous as his. It would be a risky move for sure, but I still might do it because the potential upside would be enormous.

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          1. It’s super risky, but I think I do it – too much need and upside to ignore. That said, if Abel and a top 10-20 prospect gets me Brent Rooker, I do that instead.

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    2. I’ve never subscribed to get getting closers from crappie teams. They get to good teams and intense playoff situations and the moment is too big for them.

      If you’re going to get someone get a guy a guy who’s been there done that.

      Phil Maton is my target…

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  55. Back from vacation and severely jetlagged, I read this morning that Dombrowski tells Stark starters will be in the pen for the playoffs (as the 2018 Red Sox did), so he doesn’t have to sell the farm to get a closer.

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    1. This doesn’t surprise me in the least. While I think they do need at least one more BP arm, using starters in the BP for the playoffs is a great option for this team – one almost no teams (other than the Dodgers) ever have. September should be interesting.

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  56. As usual, so many teams will seek bullpen help. If the A’s were absolutely confident in Miller, they don’t trade him when his value has taken a dip. Otherwise they might shop him for a top 25 MLB prospect plus a team’s 6-7 best prospect. At the moment, an offer leading with Abel I think doesn’t get you in the door. Unless it’s Abel plus a prospect we’d hate to lose.

    I’ve been back and forth on trading Ranger. I guess where I come out is that the only way he gets traded is if the Phils have 5 (not 4) other SP’s they have a high level of confidence in after moving Ranger. Right now they have Wheeler, Sanchez and Luzardo. It could happen that 2 of Nola, Abel and Painter could emerge in the next 5 weeks. By that I mean pre-2025 Nola; the Abel of his first couple MLB starts and/or the pre-TJ Andrew Painter. Setting it out like this, it seems clear that the Phils’ trading Suarez is a long shot, like from half-court.

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    1. I’m going to stop talking about the trade of Ranger, because I think it’s ridiculous.

      But the trade of Abel and other minor leaguers – that’s very possible. To me, the Phillies need BP help and they still need a RH slugger. I have not lost interest in Brent Rooker. He’s probably exactly the bat they need. Still; a year later. Abel could be the lead guy on that trade. As for BP help, for the playoffs they can slide one or two of their SP arms to the bullpen. Still, they will probably need at least one more reliable arm, but it need not be a closer. The RH power hitter is a more pressing need in my view.

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      1. By the way, we yet again get to midway through the minor league season without a potential impact minor league outfielder in sight. Putting aside Pat Burrell (he was the first pick of the draft – you get no bonus points for that), it’s going on 40 years (40 YEARS!!!!) since we graduated an impact bat (Samuel) from the minors, including LA signings. A team of trained monkeys could do better than that. It’s beyond embarrassing.

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        1. Even though the performance of our minor leaguers this year has been uneven and even though the recent position player draftees have looked really bad as a group (especially at Jersey Shore – it’s terrible there), the goal is to nail the high draft picks and then get a few other hits in the draft. On the high draft picks, they’ve done very well recently. Abel, as it turns out, was a good pick. Painter appears to be a very good to great pick. Crawford was a very good pick it would appear. Miller looks like a good pick. The jury is out on Nori (and while I liked his energy and approach in ST, my concern with him was that he doesn’t have a high enough ceiling and that’s still a concern) – but overall, you’ve got to give them at least an A- on these first round picks – it’s a pretty good showing. And they’ve drafted some arms and signed Tait and Escobar.

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        2. You don’t count Rollin, Utley, Rollins, or Howard as impact bats? or are you talking OF only? Since Samuel wasn’t an OF not sure I understand.

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          2. Outfielders – I’m talking about outfielders. Other than Burrell, who was the first player taken in the draft, they haven’t developed a star outfielder since the early 80s.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. And, by my count, they only developed (and, by developed, I mean a guy who was draft/signed by the team or whose minor league career was mostly here – not a guy like Victorino or Odubel who landed in their laps as a Rule V, Abreu who had just graduated from the minors, or Jayson Werth who was already a big leaguer) a couple of guys who were even good. Marlon Byrd, I guess, was good. This isn’t a dare but name one other “good” outfielder drafted or developed by the Phillies (again, not including Burrell) in the last 40 years. I can’t think of one – can you? How can the best outfielder you develop in a 40 year period (other than the first pick in the draft) be Marlon Byrd? Staggering.

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            4. Yup – good point. Bourne was a legitimately good to very good major league outfielder. Not a star, but a good player. Thanks for reminding me.

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        3. Wait, is the criteria an impact OF or an impact bat?

          Because Rolen, Rollins, Utley, and Howard all fit the bill of impact bats. And it’s been a while, but it hasn’t been 40 years for any of those guys.

          Also, I think you gotta include JP Crawford at this point. We traded him before he did it for us, but we developed him and he’s a genuinely great hitter.

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        4. Agree completely on your condemnation of the Phils’ inability to develop quality outfielders. I’d extend that to quality starting pitching as well.

          Dombrowski’s assertion that the Phils will rely on starting pitching to compensate in he pen is exactly what you might expect him so say. It could be offered with greater conviction if the Phils had a history of doing that in the off-season.

          DD knows that not every quality starter translates into a quality reliever. And the Phils are not notably successful at converting starters with reasonably good arms into successful relievers.

          It’s one thing to bring a starter into a game in the 12th inning of a playoff game as a “best guy available” move and developing a strategy to re-purpose SP’s for a serious contender.

          Ranger is a special case as he’s had a successful history in the pen. But Dombrowski knows what the fan chorus will sound like if he makes no substantive BP upgrades and the pen flounders in the post-season.

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            1. Romus. I mentioned to Ruff my 2 definite starters are Wheeler and Sanchez. I am not sure if #3 is Luzardo or Ranger at this point. We know Ranger can simply be handed the ball and he is most likely doing a good job. Not sure on Luzardo. Not all starters do well in the BP role. Some do. The Giants used Mad Bum it seemed all the time that one year. There are other examples as well. But there are some guys who fail. I would not hesitate to have Wheeler pitch the last inning in a key win and move on or simply win game. Pretty sure he can handle it as well.

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          2. The Phillies have actually done okay in terms of developing starting pitching – Hamels, Ranger, Sanchez (wasn’t signed here, but definitely developed here), Myers, and now Abel and Painter, and this doesn’t even include solid guys like J.A. Happ. In the last 4-5 years, this has been an area of great strength with more arms on the way.

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            1. By the way, there’s a reason that, typically, teams do not rely on starters to be helpful in the BP in the postseason – teams rarely have enough quality starting pitching after the 4th starter (or after the 3d starter in a short series). So, yeah, typically, an okay 4th or 5th starter is not going to be a great BP option. This is not your normal team or even normal playoff team – this team is 5-7 quality arms deep in the rotation, which is an extreme rarity.

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            2. Aside from that, some starters take awhile to warmup and get everything going. Getting ready to go quickly just isn’t in their repertoire.

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  57. Ricky Bottalico has talked about this. Starters have a different routine than relievers and adrenaline kicks in differently for many. I think it has less to do with starting pitching depth and a quality #3 versus a #5 and much more to do with individual makeup. In a different era, you could make the case that some starters actually knew what it was like to be pitching in the 8th inning. Few can claim that now.

    My perspective on Phils’ starting pitching goes back to Robin Roberts and Curt Simmons. Over this period the Phils have acquired Jim Bunning, Steve Carlton, Curt Schilling, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Zack Wheeler. They’ve produced Chris Short, Art Mahaffey, Rick Wise, Randy Wolf, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez. I’ll stand on what I said; not a great track record. Maybe out of 30 MLB teams, in the bottom 20 %.

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  58. Can someone smarter than me please explain why Alex McFarlanes name ever comes up when discussing prospects for the Phillies? Except for a spell in the Cape Cod he has never had any success. I believe his career numbers in pro ball are 0-14 with a 6.52 era. And his time in college wasn’t any better.

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    1. Because he has a plus/plus plus fastball and plus slider. So, in theory, he could be a major league reliever. He just has to solve the little issue of being able to throw them where he wants to.

      So he’s all projection, no results at this point. Still a prospect, but not an elite one by any stretch.

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      1. He’s also back from TJ surgery in 2024 so his numbers this year need to be view through the lens of that recovery process.

        But yes, he’s 100% projection on a big arm.

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      2. Dan……at Miami he only started 12 games out of the 49 games–only 91 total innings- he pitched in the three years there…..so the transformation process to a full time starter, along with the TJ, has limited his development.

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    2. It’s simple – Alex has a big arm with the ability to also throw a sinker at high velocity.  He’s coming off of TJ rehab which in the first year of work back is a re-discovery of how to pitch. A few years back Preston told me I should watch his bullpen – he had just learned a new slot and grip on the sinker – it had Alvarado like movement.  Alex is also well know to be intuitive and a hard worker – he’s a young man who gets the profession of being a ball player in that he acclimates to the team, encourages his teammates and works hard.  If ya get a chance to watch him in person you will see the talent.  That’s why he’s discussed. The numbers don’t always tell the story.

      Steve Potter 

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Gotcha. Thanks for the insight. I will say though that I’ve seen a lot of scratch golfers on the driving range only to see them throw up an 85 on the course. Here’s to hoping Alex can put it all together.

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  59. Is it strange to anyone else that Escobar still hasn’t been moved to JS? Age 20 slashing 298/392/864 OPS through 278 PA’s.

    I mean yeah there is no rush but they were aggressive with both Crawford and Miller. In fact both Crawford and Miller were 20 AA.

    I find it peculiar

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    1. The problem with just seeing box scores is you really can’t see in person what a prospect is struggling with or needs to master. My guess is that he’s not being promoted for a very specific reason (or reasons), we just can’t quite see what they are.

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      1. Didn’t Jim mention something awhile back about some of the guys being kept at sites to keep them comfortable culturally a little longer. He’s pretty young yet, perhaps that it. JS might be a bigger step out into the world, IDK.

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    2. I’ve been asking the same question for weeks. He has been slumping a bit (possibly getting tired), but might be coming out of it now (a double and 2 BBs last night).

      Miller back today.

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    3. DMAR…….his English may be limited, and JS could be a small culture shock for a young Latin. For Crawford and Miller traveling AAU teams and other CONUS tourneys as 17 and 18 year olds ….no big deal going to Lakewood or Reading.

      Liked by 1 person

    4. Aroon’s play was limited last season due to injury and the plan for him was to get consistent AB’s at CW out of camp. There have been recent discussions about bumping him up and before the second half ends that will likely come. With Devin Saltiban not far away from returning from his injury rehab it’s very likely that Devin also goes back to Jersey Shore when his rehab term runs out  – both are 20 year old talents.  The plan is to develop both as second basemen. Both need consistent AB’s and while splitting time in JS between 2B and DH would eventually work for now the intent is to hold off and see truly how close Devin is before moving Aroon. Devin could do a rehab with CW which then could move Aroon up a notch.  With the imposed roster limits planning to get guys ABs and also to cover teams with players becomes part of the equation as well. 

      Steve Potter 

      Liked by 2 people

      1. So far, Saltiban has been the biggest disappointment of the year. It was only 25 games, but his hit tool didn’t look good at all. He’ll get some more chances and he stood out to me in ST, but it’s one thing to hit BP pitching and it’s another to hit live pitching. By the way, as far as I can tell, Jordan Viars is toast – he can’t hit advanced pitching at all from what I can tell.

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        1. Well Devin hit 17 home runs last season at CW and was hitting .471 in four May games before getting injured.  It’s true he struggled mightily in April but it’s a stretch to say he’s just a BP wonder.  There’s talent there – one bad month doesn’t make a career. 

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            1. I DIDN’T say he was just a BP wonder, just that bp success is incredibly different from facing live pitching, which it is!! The concern with Saltiban is the hit tool against advanced pitching, just as it is with many prospects – he only hit .239 last year. I’m not saying he can’t get past this, just that this is his presenting challenge. In terms of physical tools, Saltiban’s tools are incredibly impressive – but he has to make enough good contact for that to matter.

              By the way, as we watch so many of our prospects struggle with the hit tool, it really does make Justin Crawford stand out as being exceptional in that regard, doesn’t it?

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  60. I wonder if they make a switch from Abel to Painter at or just before the All Star break and give Abel a chance to contribute out of the bullpen before they make a trade. If Abel’s stuff ticks up I think he could have success ala a young Adam Wainwright. Can always stretch him back out next year.

    I’m not sure they need to acquire a lock down reliever given the post season format, I wonder if they get more aggressive in using their starters out of the pen like the Nationals did to win their title and the Dodgers have done recently.

    If you can get by with 3 starters in the NLDS you can have Wheeler/Suarez/Sanchez start & have Luzardo/Painter/Nola available in either leverage spots or in a bulk scenario if you want to use Kerkering early to bail out a starter. In the NLCS if they get there you can put Nola back in for game 4 but you can probably mix in the starters depending on their bullpen days.

    Not saying they shouldn’t add a reliever but I don’t know if I would trade Abel/Crawford/etc for one given their volatility. A prospect in the range of whom they’ve traded lately is fine with me or Kemp/Keaton types a team can take a chance on.

    If they could pull a David Robertson signing off I would be very happy with that. At the least he’s an upgrade over the current last man in the pen.

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    1. One other bullpen piece at least for the regular season is that Alvarado will be returning in August and will be a boost for the pen down the stretch drive.

      Won’t help in the playoffs but DD did a recent podcast with Jayson Stark where he basically stated that come playoff time, he expects some of their starting pitching will fill that void. Referenced the 2018 Red Sox where Kimbrel was their closer but it was guys like Eovaldi, Price, and Sale who were coming out of the pen in key situations. Sale finished the deciding game 5.

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      1. Playoff rotation): Wheeler, Suarez, Sanchez

        (Playoff pen): Kerkering, Nola, Luzardo, Strahm, Romano, Banks, Painter, Abel, Lazar, Ross, Walker. 1more than they can use. It feels like playing poker with half the deck.

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        1. That’s the rotation for the first and (maybe) second rounds.

          In the NLCS and WS, it’s a 4 man rotation and, right now, that 4th pitcher is Luzardo, although that could change. Luzardo or whoever is the 4th starter would also be a hand on deck for a 6th (maybe) and 7th (definitely) game in each series.

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          1. Abel will be traded at Deadline with a #6-10 prospect, and a #10-15 prospect for a RH Bat with Dude potential.

            Hunter Pence is a great comparison.

            Phils got Pence (100 Games / .308 AVG / .778 OPS / 11 HR / 62 RBI) for Jarred Cosart, who at the time was thought to be on the rise; Jon Singleton, who has battled person issues, Josh Zeid, who ??? and what folks thought was the steal – Domingo Santana.

            Find me THAT Dude, bat him 3rd between Bryce and Kyle and we have a parade.

            And if you look at the haul we got back from the Giants – Nate Schierholz, Tommy Joseph and Seth Rosin, I think we generally overvalue prospects.

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            1. Comes down to….who do they think is that ‘dude’, and hopefully just not a dud. Last year it was the WSox Robert as the rumored guy. Not sure who is out there now that will move the needle. Cedric Mullins does not inspire much IMO.

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          2. Well, yeah, this team clearly appears to be on pace to make the playoffs and making the playoffs is just a step, not the goal. The goal is to win the WS, so why wouldn’t we be talking about playoff starters and who would go to the bullpen and who would remain as the 4th starter? That could be the key to the entire season.

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    2. I personally want no part of David Robertson. People complain about Nola giving up home runs… thats exactly what Robertson does out of the pen these days. Hard pass for me.I’d rather convert a starter to the pen

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      1. Everybody in baseball can see what the state of the Phils’ bullpen is. Nobody believes you can construct a BP with re-purposed starters. Nobody builds a highway with cobblestones. Dombrowski’s remarks were for public consumption. What would he say otherwise?

        Robertson logged more innings last year than he ever did. He’s an upgrade for what the Phils have. He costs $ and no prospects. The Phils need more But they’ll pay less with a follow-on move if they’re not seen as desperate.

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        1. I want no parts of him… dude is a home run machine at this point. The Phillies are going to have to pay a fortune for bullpen help regardless of whether they sign Robertson or not. The market is ripe for getting a large haul with basically all the contenders searching for it. Luckily, there maybe some top level talent available for such requests. Duran, Clause, Miller, Fairbanks, and some others. DD is going to have a big decision to make, and his best bet is to Likely get the Arm & bat in one large trade. Will see, but Robertson … I’d rather see Johnson promoted…same results likely …

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        2. I disagree that the starters can’t be repurposed successfully if that’s what you’re implying. I think there’s a long history of teams using their starters to cover a weak pen in the post season. Especially if they go in with 6 healthy and effective starters. Luzardo has great stuff that would tick up even more and Suarez has bounced back and forth in the playoffs successfully in the past for us.

          There’s plenty of recent history suggesting that starters can make up for shakey relievers (like Dombrowski mentions the 2018 Red Sox had a big Kimbrel problem in the WS).

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  61. All these pitching scenarios are nice. I am glad the Phillies have the starters they have. But if the hitters do not score some runs the great staff is not going to matter. Last year they did not. You do not have to put 5 or 6 runs a game though nice but the starter has to has a little room to breathe. At times our guys do not give them that. Also there has to be someone on the roster who can get those final 3 outs which are the most difficult to get.

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    1. Exactly Don….the hitters came up small. However, I really do think Castellanos is more inspired this year, especially with Harper now, he seems to be a changed man… IMO ready to tell the team, ‘take the load off fanny, and put the load on me’

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    2. I agree. I think a big regret for the front office (in hindsight) is not going after a bat like Teoscar Hernandez in 2023 considering the important ab’s Pache and Rojas ended up having. No guarantees he would’ve played like he has for the Dodgers but if he had that’s a move that puts them in the WS (in hindsight, IMO).

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I’d be in favor of calling up Crawford now. He’s got to be a better hitter than Rojas, they both have speed and good gloves, but maybe Crawford doesn’t have the tendency to make dumb mistakes like Rojas. At the least he’s probably as good, and he is the future, anyway.

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  62. I’d like to put in a good word for the still relatively new podcast, The Phillies Show (I watch it on Youtube). If you’ve been wondering why Tod Zolecki left the MLB.com Phillies beat, this is where he went. He’s brought in his predecessor at the Inquirer, Jim Salisbury, whom I’ve really missed since he took the buyout at NBCsports, and Ruben Amaro. Now, I know some of you really hate Amaro. I don’t (I think a number of the questionable decisions made when he was GM were really the heavy hand of David Montgomery–though I blame Ruben completely for the Papelbon signing’s bad timing), and have found him a good analyst in the studio. Here he’s more unbuttoned and surprisingly frank. Lots of funny behind-the-scenes stories from all three.

    It appears twice weekly; the newest one is on the trade deadline.

    Liked by 2 people

    2. Phillies weekly on YouTube also. I think this is better than the Phillies show. I haven’t seen/ listened to Phillies therapy.

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    1. Listen, I love Crawford, but so far in his career, his swing mechanics dictates that he IS mostly a slap hitter (he’s on a pace for like 5 homers – you think that makes him a power prospect right now?), but he’s got a lot of ability and he has tremendous bat-to-ball skills – like a 9 out of 10. And he’s taking walks which I’ve noted is huge for his skillset. While I think it’s possible they could try to change his swing and get him to hit for more power, I say why mess with that? He’s a .300 hitter with great on base skills, running skill and fielding ability. If he becomes the best version of himself he’s a perennial 3-5 WAR player – that’s a winning player!

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      1. I will say that I just saw the reply of the homer and that swing definitely was a power swing where he turned on and drove the pitch, so, who knows? But nobody should be debating whether this guy has big league abilities – at the very least he should be an above average major leaguer and could easily become a first division regular (think Brett Gardner). And while I don’t necessarily see him to be a future star, I would LOVE to be wrong about that and he could turn into the next . . . Carl Crawford (makes sense, right?). But, yeah, they are going to need to shake things up and get this guy in the line-up – he’s just better than their current centerfield options from what I can see – it’s that simple.

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        1. The Phillies would kill to have Justin Crawford be the next Brett Gardner. Gardner had 44.3 WAR in his career!

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          1. Agreed. Nobody ever really looked at Gardner as a star (although for a short time he might have been one), but he was a solid first division regular for over a decade. The Yankees specialize in players like that.

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    1. As I said above, call Crawford up now. The team needs a shake up and Topper just saying in his monotone that they’re trying too hard isn’t it. Crawford might be the breath of fresh air the teams needs to break out of trying too hard.

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  65. Really , Crawford is still not called up? Why? They must like to waste great pitching. Did you see the era on the guys in bullpen for Houston? Crawford can get you runs with his speed. I just don’t get it, Anthony at first, Crawford in center. Kennedy, Rojas to unemployment line

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  66. Fairly easy call for me. Kepler goes the way of Whit Merrifield and Crawford assumes the everyday CF job with Marsh to LF. You’ll need some type of RH bat to back Marsh up the rest of the way.

    It has to be someone capable defensively and offensively. You could keep Rojas up and just use Sosa for the pinch hitter role when they bring the tough lefty in to face Marsh then replace him in the field with Rojas.

    A healthy Harper is going to change the whole offensive dynamic so I am not overly concerned with that.

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    1. dmar I’m on board with that. It does leave us heavy on the lefty side. I wonder what it would take to get Rooker from the A’s? He’s a RH bat who hits dingers and gets on base at a .352 clip.

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      1. The A’s just signed him to an extension through 2029 which also has a vesting option for 2030 at $22 million.

        I’m not sure they would trade him or they if they would might have a very high price on him.

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  68. Hey Romus. Are you the same romus I see posting on some hockey boards? If so, who ya got us taking tomorrow night?

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  69. Few Random thoughts:

    I love Rojas… as a defensive replacement only. Thats his niche, and he really needs to be limited to it. He should make Very rare plate appearances. As of today… Crawford could easily replace him on the roster. Im more wondering if DD is holding his cards close to his chest to mark sure he doesn’t devalue anyone before the deadline.

    Can Rojas fetch you a BP arm? Not, top tier, but a 7th innning guy?

    I have a feeling DD is emptying the cupboard this deadline. Miller or Escobar, Abel, and possibly Tait if it would get Duran and Buxton from the twins. He still needs to add one other 7th inning quality BP arm… and that might just be Ranger if he can’t find a partner. I’ll say it again …Sir A… bring him back.

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    1. No, everybody, so long as he’s pitching like he is now, Ranger is not being moved to the bullpen. Why settle for one or two shut down innings when you can get 7 or 8? He’s not being traded and he’s not going to the bullpen. He’s most valuable doing what he’s doing now on the Phillies.

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      1. Catch. I agree. He is best where he is now. Ranger does have more flexibility though than others possibly. Guys have got to get the bats going or it is not going to matter.

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      2. I agree. Unless Ranger starts to show signs of fatigue he stays in the rotation at least through August. By then you should have an idea if Nola has returned to form or if Painter is a factor and can start arranging a playoff bullpen. If all 6 starters are throwing the ball well I think I probably keep him in the pen as a game 3 starter who’s available in game 1 and 5 out of the pen.

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  70. Shot in the dark.. but .. on Alvarado… we all know he “says” he didn’t know. I don’t believe him but… is there absolutely no way he can’t appeal to have the playoff exclusion removed from his punishment if he can prove some semblance of innocence? Im just surprised how quiet he has been on it. if you didnt do it… you think you’d be a loud mouth about getting it over turned/appealed.

    I also htink this is somewhat poor management by the Phillies staff. its 99% Alvarado’s fault, but this team should be asking daily what they players are taking … did you add anything to your daily “vitamins” list? It’s crazy how impactful this is.

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    1. Baseball’s performance enhancing drug policy can be likened to “malum in se” crimes in the law — criminal conduct that speaks for itself. Think arson, as opposed to security law violations like insider trading determined by who did what, when.(“malam prohibitum”)

      If Alvarado said he was given PED’s by the commissioner of baseball, it wouldn’t change the testing results that implicate him. His job was to clear substances with a medical/nutrition expert with the Phils. If he took the substances voluntarily (not forced down his throat) he’s going to do the time, including the playoff ban. Every team knows this and communicates it to the players.

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      1. The rules, procedures and risks are clear as a bell to any and every player. No can claim to innocently take a banned substances.

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  71. Tac – Strahm is turning into Robertson. Lots of homers in his last few appearances..

    SoCal – Josh Zeid is a Connecticut boy. Claim to fame was being the top starter for the Jewish team in the World Baseball Classic.

    Catch – Wasn’t Tony Gwynn pretty much a slap hitter early (and even late) in his career?

    Romus – Like how you quoted The Band in your post. There was an article about people who appeared on “Mash” early in their careers. One was Marcia Strassman. Didn’t you date her and eventually dump her for Jan Smithers?

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    1. Ciada – not sure I understand the Tony Gwynn point, which I think is misplaced. My point is that, even as a slap hitter (which he may or may not become), Crawford could be very valuable. Early this year, I compared some of the hits he was getting to being accomplished in a very Ichiro-like fashion – just serving the ball where it was hit. If you’re looking for someone to talk Crawford down if he’s a slap hitter, it isn’t me. I think he’s going to be very good.

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    2. ciada….you taking lessons from rocco these days.! Marcia Strassman was a looker for sure….heard, did not like working on the Welcome Back Kotter set. Died too young ….and Jan Smithers another hottie in her day..

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  72. Catch – I wasn’t knocking your post. Actually, I was adding to it with the Tony Gwynn comparison. I’ve been crowing for Crawford and believe when/if he develops more power, I think he could be better than Harris of the Braves.

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  73. I actually would strongly consider grabbing McCutchen for the stretch run to be half a platoon in LF with Marsh. I think the Pirates would do him that solid to get him one more shot at a ring.

    Also a great guy to have around Crawford and just in the clubhouse in general.

    They should have just kept Hayes in hindsight…

    The Reds are 2.5 back of a WC but honestly unless they get really hot they are probably on the outside looking in so DD may get to give away more pieces for him LOL

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  74. Just saw on the telecast that Phillies have now had 14 games where starter went 6 plus innings and gave up 2 or less earned runs. But Phillies are only 5-9 in those games. Wow. Wheeler has had 5. Ranger and Sanchez 3 each.

    Maybe DD needs to be figuring out to get some guys who can score some runs. Pitching is great but you do have to score to win a game.

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  75. Are the Phillies really going to go an entire 3-game series without scoring a single run? I hope not and I can’t remember that happening to any time I’ve ever rooted for and I grew up watching some really crappy hitting Mets teams that could barely scratch out a run. But, yeah, like I’ve said for months, the issue with this team is hitting, hitting, hitting.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Apparently, this happened in a 3 game series between the Phillies and the Mets on May 25-27, 2010. Phillies didn’t scratch out a single run that series.

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  76. Jimenez look like he’s a prospect? Just got promoted to CWater after hitting 330 in rookie ball. He’s 20

    Degges somehow pitched 3.2 shutout innings today despite allowing 11 base runners (4 hits and 7 walks!). Not sure how that’s possible. Haha

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    1. Not sure who this is today but a couple weeks ago I watched a game where the ump the game before had a perfect score. I forget who was playing that game. But the guy was really good that game as well. This ump resembles him somewhat, but I do not know his name.

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  78. Catch – When I read your 3:41 post, I immediately remembered that 3 game series versus the Mets. I was thinking of how I would research it but then I read your 3:43 post. Thanks for helping me to not waste my time (which I have plenty of).

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  79. So, yeah, I grew up watching a team like this Phillies team – all pitching, little hitting. This type of baseball will drive you crazy. I’ll take an 8-7 game over this water torture any day of the week. I need to take a shower. this sucks.

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  80. Brooklyn had their boys of summer.We have our boys of October (2024) in summer. If there was a way to swap out our front office from Dombrowski on down, including player development, for that of Houston. Lost Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman and not missing a beat. Imagine pooling Houston’s baseball smarts and acumen with the Philly market, fan base and payroll.

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      1. Romus. Having Abreu and Hader at the back end of the BP does not hurt. Said Abreu has now faced 40 Phillies. 20Ks. Pretty good ratio. Our guys were not even competitive for him in the 9th.

        Earlier you mentioned Judge and Harper. No doubt those are big bats. But Phillies had won 8 or 10 without Harper. The other guys have to step up when a leader is out. They had done fairly well till Houston.

        Houston, we have a problem. Phillies are leaving town. Hope for better results in Atlanta.

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        1. Yeah Don…the Astros BP with Hader and Abreu are superb……they are paying Hader $19M and they do get a bargain with Abreu at $3.5M. They must feel a pinch paying Altuve $33M for the next two years, then the last two years his AAV is only $13M as he approaches 40 years old……but, he helped them to two rings along the way so….

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  81. I have to finally say, I have given up on Max Kepler. I really wanted him to succeed……but it hasn’t happened

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    1. Phillies seem to have developed an annual practice of bringing in a “professional hitter” outfielder who flubs his one year in Philadelphia.

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    2. Time to DFA Kepler and bring up Justin Crawford. Johan Rojas should never have a meaningful at bay again.

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  82. Listen DFAing anyone is not going to solve the problem on this team.

    I would send Rojas to AAA, move Marsh to LF, bring up Crawford to play CF, move Kepler to the bench. I am not a Kepler apologist, but I’m only paying him for this year and he isn’t the reason this team will fail to make the post-season.

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