378 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion, 10/6/24”

1. I watched the Phils lose to the Mets on Sunday June 9 in London in a come back. Who knew that game would change the direction of both teams? Let’s Go Phils!

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2. Good luck with the impending storm. The weather is becoming more threatening every year. Very tough opening loss with your ace throwing a 1 hitter through 7 at home and taking a loss. 114 pitches doesn’t help his next outing. Continued lack of plate discipline. Turner, Realmuto, Stott, Brohm and Castellanos not much of anything. Looked like a continuation of Arizona series last year. Pen implodes. Mets showed better plate discipline and look hungrier. I thought yesterday was a must win. Today obviously. A different team since the AllStar break. Get it going Phils. Time is tight!

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3. Just before I closed the previous discussion, Guru reported that Thomson had benched Bohm in favor of Sosa for today’s game. I’m carrying that comment over so that you all can comment if you wish.

   This type of move makes Thomson appear reactionary to me. It also sets Bohm up as the scape goat unfairly.

   If he’s going to make game-to-game moves that he didn’t make all season (he would add a LHB to the lineup not swap a RHB for another RHB) and starts making in-game moves that he didn’t make all season (although many did beg for him to), it’s an area he is not accustomed to. We don’t know if he’s capable of making such moves successfully.

   Sosa is even more undisciplined at the plate than Castellanos and Turner. I think I smell panic.

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   1. Unless it’s a hand issue, agree that the move with Bohm is a terrible decision. If Sosa was a lefty maybe but he’s not good vs. RHP.

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   2. Yeah no problem with him putting Bohm on the bench for a game in favor of a LHB in Clemons. That would be easier to defend.

      But I think you are spot on. Its not something he has done all season so its a risky move and that’s not to say in the playoffs you don’t do things you haven’t done all season

      You absolutely have to know when yo go off script to win the whole thing.

      My bigger beef was not sending Estevez out for 3 more outs especially given the right on right matchup for Vientos who is absolutely caught fire and is crushing us right now.

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   3. I think that wasn’t as much about performance as much as Bohm’s pouting in frustration. He’s got to reign that in. Everyone shows frustration but he is way too over the top about it and you can tell it affects either his later at bats or defense.

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4. Jim. Be careful. All the weather guys up here ae saying this will be much worse. I agree on the Phillies. They could go either way. Tale of 2 teams. They had that one little good stretch before the last slump but that was really it for the second half. I agree with Murray about the London game. I watched it. No idea what would happen. That last Oakland game before break bothered me then. No way the Phillies should lose any game 18-3.

   Jim. My football coach is in Spring Hill. He said like 50 minutes from Tampa and 5 miles from the Gulf. He said they missed the last one. Hopefully he is fortunate this time. Lots of the stuff we are seeing is that people need to get out of the area in Florida if they can.

   I hope the best for all of you. Be safe.

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   1. There’s no place to go. If it hits as predicted it will cut a wide swathe through central Florida to the Atlantic. Northern Florida and the southern states are still recoiling from Helene. Flights out of Tampa are routing through Miami which will be screwed if the path deviates even a little below Tampa. I hope your coach remains safe.

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      1. Jim. I saw the benching of Bohm. Maybe his hand is just not right. For me you simply cannot let Wheeler pitch so well and just leave him hanging with a 1-0 lead against BP guys. The game was lost there even before the BP implode. I can see the game going either way tonight. Phillies may explode like they did in that big win at NY, or they may just go meekly into the sunset.

         Jim. My wife just sent me a text of your projected area for Wednesday. They guys up here are so on it because so many from Indiana go to Florida. Just looks crazy.

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      2. Ugh sending prayers for you my friend and hoping my FL family in North Port, Punta Gorda and Bonita Springs they escape this one unscathed.

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      3. Drive north and west today or early tomorrow morning; Tuesday afternoon and later risk being caught in traffic with gas shortages. Florida panhandle, Georgia or Alabama are safe destinations.

         Professional Meteorologist Actively Forecasting Milton (who has read updates on this site since 2006 but has never commented)

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         1. JIm. My wife says all the weather guys here in Indiana are saying the same. Head north to the panhandle area. Be safe. Best of luck.

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5. The rise of the Mets this season coincided with Vientos coming back up to the majors and starting to hit. Whatever adjustments he made this year has worked. Vientos has posted 3.2 WAR in 111 games at age 24. Alec Bohm has posted a comparable WAR this season at age 27/28 but with a full season of games.

   Bohm is under contract for 2 more years. If somebody makes a decent trade offer for him, I would consider it.

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   1. You could be correct…..his value will not be any higher based on age, contract control and offensive production.

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   2. Not sure what Vientos season has to do with Bohm. Phillies doesn’t have Bohm’s replacement ready yet so that’s another big FA contract they would need to replace him.

      Not sure how creating new holes to fill helps.

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      1. First, I seriously doubt anybody will give any significant trade value for Bohm. So he’s likely staying for the 2 years in Philadelphia but I’m not giving him a FA deal.

         I do believe that one way or another, Miller will replace Bohm eventually.

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         1. Yeah I think Bohm is a guy you move on from once his team control is up. His inability to control his emotions would make me nervous to give him a massive contract to live up to in a high pressure environment. I wouldn’t accelerate that timeline even if Adian Miller is knocking at the door.

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6. How about that worst RF in all baseball?

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   1. In a short series, anything can happen. Remember Cody Ross?

      But don’t get me wrong, I’m still happy that Casty was able to deliver the win for the Phillies.

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      1. Yeah, I’m happy Casty was on the team tonight. Doesn’t mean I want him here long term.

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         1. If we get the “whole enchilada” you will have him for the duration of his contract, trust me! He certainly had a really big game today, didn’t he?

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7. The Phillies need to get together and start giving Vientos the Bryce Harper treatment.

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8. I’ll take it. We get the momentum going into the off day, and we have Nola there to keep the Mets in check for game 3. So now they know they can’t just steam roll us.

   Next order of business is to score early and often. The Mets see this game as them being able to hang with us, but coming up just short in game 2. So now we show them that NO ONE can hang with us when we’re firing on all cylinders.

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9. Mets are more than dangerous because they are never out of the game. Our bullpen has been absolutely atrocious – but is that them or just Mets magic ?

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10. Romus …….. did you take your meds? That was intense ……… told my kid that this matchup might be better than the WS. Wish I knew what Nimmo was chirping to JT about ….. imagine it will come out.

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11. RU – You mention the bullpen. Could you (or anyone else) explain to me why Thomson didn’t send Estevez back out to pitch the ninth inning. He only threw 8 pitches in the eighth inning.

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12. Jim, wishing you the best in the coming storm. My son in central Florida is much more concerned about this one than previous storms. He is in a position where he gets pretty accurate emergency and weather information. Hopefully this one doesn’t develop as expected. Prayers for everyone down there in the next couple of days.

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13. I understand hyperbole, but can we stop with the “worst RF in baseball” nonsense? I mean, with all due respect, do commenters who make comments like that really want to defend a trade to get Dominic Fletcher, for example, into the daily line up, or George Springer? On the one hand people complained because the Phillies management wouldn’t spend like a big market team, and then complain that the players they have are overpriced. Sorry…. just my POV

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    1. When (if) someone calls him the worst RF, they’re talking about defensively. Which isn’t hyperbole.

       Offensively he’s a little above average and middle of the pack (11th of 17 qualified RF in wRC+, around 9th-11th in pretty much all offensive stats), so overall he’s like… 3rd or 4th worst (again, of qualified RF).

       But hey, when he gets hot he can rake with the best of em. So I’m happy he’s going good right now. And hopefully Liam will make the trek to NY and keep being the good luck charm.

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    2. Between the extremes, there’s a view I adopt that Castellanos was signed, after Schwarber, as a reflection of a systemic failure of the Phils’ farm system. Castellanos likes playing RF but he’s very close to being a full time DH for someone.

       Given the way the lineup is put together, there is a crying need for a reliable bat to protect against Harper being pitched around. I can dream of Bohm or Castellanos in that role but every now and then reality gets in the way. And I don’t see that #4 bat waiting in the wings or down on the farm.

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14. Manaea gives our lineup fits. I hope they come up with a good plan to run his pitch count up early and get him out of there.

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    1. DMAR…exactly. The positive side…Turner, Bohm (2 for his last 27) and Castellanos are facing a LHP so that should help them. Wish JTR would get hot.

       And how about Castellanos setting that Phillies record….5 walk off hits in a season. Hope he stays hot for three and half more weeks.

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    2. Manaea is tough, but I think it’s good they just saw him recently. That should help to a degree. We need 5-6 innings of good pitching from Nola and hope for a bounce back from the bullpen.

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15. These three BP arms need to get their act in order:

    Matt Strahm…4 ER in 1 IP—–Orion Kerkering…1 ER in 1.2 IP—–Jeff Hoffman…5 ER in 0.1 IP

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    1. Pretty much what Wainwright said last night the scouting reports give the pitcher everything they need to be successful but it always comes down to executing.

       For a few those arms that is the problem. The Mets as a team are looking away which means we need our arms to execute in.

       Not sure if the Mets hitters will change their approach but what I saw with the Brewers and in our first two games is they are eliminating in and not chasing in.

       They are sitting on outside especially with 2 strikes and then just flicking it the other way.

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       1. i can see that.

          I thought Strahm might have hung that pitch in the 9th.

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          1. It was just a good AB by Vientos. He was sitting fastball and just went after it. It was incredible that he got on top of the ball and tomahawked it to LF.

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       2. In the late innings, I think the Mets are giving up some power just to make contact, especially with guys in scoring position. That was very apparent to me in game 1. Just look at JD Martinez’s ABs. He’s trying to poke it into the middle of the field.

          Yesterday, Stott was looking to make contact and got a triple. In his last AB, Casty knew that all he needed was a hit so he just hooked one into LF. In games like this, hitters need to shorten their swings and just make contact.

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          1. Agree, game 1 was won on 8 singles, 5 walks and a hit batsman. A good lesson for us, it doesn’t have to go over the fence to win the game ………. but the Padres didn’t follow that routine last night.😂

             .

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       3. Cannot understand why many pitchers are hesitant with their FBs in pitching inside to a hitter. …perhaps they feel if they miss their location it will be a dead-red pitch for the hitter..

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          1. Romus. Back in the day they were not hesitant. Do not believe Bob Gibson ever worried how close a shave he gave a hitter. LOL

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             1. Don….Gibson is 90th on the list with 102 HBPs. Randy Johnson is 5th and lo and behold Charlie Morton is 7th.

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_career_hit_batsmen_leaders#:~:text=This%20is%20a%20list%20of,more%20batters%20in%20their%20careers.

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                1. ;Romus.. Maybe Gibby knew how to give a close shave better. I can see the Big Unit. Remember Kruk in All Star game. Surprised with Morton being that high.

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             2. Let’s be honest, guys like Gibson and Drysdale loved to hit batters. And good luck rushing the mound on Gibson – he was a golden gloves boxer. But the worst was Kyle Farnsworth – a trained totally badass MMA fighter. If he hit you, he hoped you would charge the mound so he could lay a beat down on you – and he did. He is now a bodybuilder (seriously).

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                1. As a baseball player, Farnsworth was already jacked up. And he was a little unbalanced, he was a scary dude.

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    2. I’m confident in Hoffman and Strahm I think they can fix their issues, they did so earlier in the season when they started struggling (end of july/august).

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       1. I expect them to bounce back. Also, Kerkering missed on one pitch but generally looked good.

          The Mets are beyond dangerous right now and the Phillies just have to limit the damage, but there will be damage.

          Whoever wins this series could easily win the World Series. Watch out Dodgers and Padres and, American League winner – fugghetaboutit!

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16. Topper is opposed to ‘up-downs’, bringing back a reliever for the next inning in high leverage situations. He’ll use what used to be known descriptively as “mop up” relievers for multiple innings of work.

    I don’t think this is based on the idea of saving the reliever for a long season. I think Topper believes relievers are most effective being given a single inning (or less) to work. I don’t see this changing during the playoffs.

    Given the way Topper handles the closer role this year, no one can lay claim to the closer role. That has implications this off-season in negotiating with relievers the Phils might want back for 2025. Someone seeking the rewards of being the undisputed closer might seek greener pastures. (I think of this as based on the newly-discovered “Kimbrel Rule” of reduced expectations).

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17. I just listened to Toppers live press conference among the things he said:

    Bohm will definitely be in there tomorrow would not comment on Stott or Marsh Being in there, Ranger will definitely pitch game 4 regardless of what happens tomorrow has full confidence in his bullpen. He also said he needs to get Alvarado in there. I am totally confident we will see the April/May version of Ranger in game 4, or some version close to it

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    1. I’m not that confident with Ranger and I fully expect Thomson to have a quick trigger finger if Suarez runs into trouble after the 3rd inning. Earlier if the Phillies lose on Tuesday.

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18. The unsung hero of yesterday’s game was Christopher Sanchez. This guy has turned himself into one hell of a pitcher in a pretty short amount of time. It’s not easy to become the second starter in this rotation, but he deserved it and came up big.

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    1. Not sure he is the sw-facto second starter other than the fact his splits home and away are so diverse…..,ERA home 2.2 and away 5.

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       1. de-facto

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          1. Understood, but even with that, it’s pretty impressive.

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             1. Oh yes….not taking anything away from his outstanding season….just think Top went with him in the second game at home because of how great he has been at the Bank…and also possibly a change of pace as a lefty after Wheeler the day prior.

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19. Inquirer reporting Painter to the AFL!

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    1. AFL season kicks-off tonight…Phillies affiliate starts tomorrow.

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    2. I would be content if Painter was brought up from Lehigh Valley, once he’s shown success, and used as a middle reliever. Judging from those results, if he can give the Phils 5-6 late season starts in ’25, that would be gravy. That formula doesn’t take him above 100 innings which seems about right.

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       1. Casey Mize (6’3″ 212lbs) had TJ June 15, 2022 and his first game back was April 4, 2024. He was off approximately 22 months. Mize pitched 116 innings in 2024.

          Andrew Painter (6’7″ 215lbs) had TJ July 25, 2023. If he starts at Lehigh in 2025, he’ll be starting end of March/early April 2025. This means he will be off for approximately 21 months.

          Obviously, the Phillies will treat Painter with kid gloves. Looking at Mize as a reference, I think 100-110 innings is a viable goal. How Painter will get to those innings (as starter/reliever) will be interesting to see.

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20. Phillies with 4 in the latest MLB Top 100…Miller, Painter, Crawford and Caba

    https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

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    1. Tait is probably not far behind. Aside from Painter, he may have the highest ceiling of all of our prospects.

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       1. Yes he does have a high ceiling…..I also think Crawford could also really be a mega star in the making.

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          1. I’m not seeing a mega star here (I don’t think he walks enough or will develop enough power to be a mega star), but I could easily see a sometimes all-star with 4-5 WAR – that’s a damned good player, reminiscent of his father.

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             1. FYI – I hope I am wrong and you are right.

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          2. Mega star might be pushing it, but if Crawford becomes the next Corbin Carroll, I think everybody here would take that.

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             1. Hell…I’ll take a player who can lay off the down and away slider!!! Now, im not picking on anyone player… but yeah… I’ve seen way too many Phillies over the years that can’t lay off it. Chase way too much. We all know who they are. When that player doesn’t chase…. Its awesome because you know something good is about to happen.

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             2. Corbin Carroll is a star, although not a megastar. If he becomes Corbin Carroll (which I think is not likely), then we’ve hit the jackpot.

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21. Exciting news on Painter. Wish him well. Sounds like he maybe an opener for much of next season. That would keep his innings down, and put him in low stress situations until he can really be able to ramp up, and distance himself from the recovery phase.

    I know we are all pulling for the kid, it could really boost this team for next year.

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    1. Assume over the next 6 weeks-30 game season in the AFL, the maximum IP will be 20/25 range…..my guess however will be less than 20.

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    2. I would start Painter at Lehigh and throw 3 innings per start in April. Then 4 innings in May. After that, evaluate him if he’s ready for the bigs. Either way, 5 innings max per start the rest of the way. He’ll be close to 110 innings for the season, less if the Phillies skip a start here and there.

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       1. Agree that Painter should and will start in the minors next year and should start with a manageable and small work load and build up from there with the hope that he gets a bunch of 5 inning starts in the majors. Imagine a rotation with this kid as your 5th starter! Amazing.

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22. Emmanuel Clase had one of the all time greatest reliever seasons (4.5 WAR) and he hangs a slider to Kerry Carpenter. Baseball is a crazy game.

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    1. To put that more into perspective….Brad Lidge in 2008 had an ERA under 2, a FIP of 2.4 and with the 41 saves, and no blowns, only had a 2.4WAR

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       1. Clase must play better defense 🙂

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23. Painter, who turns 22 in April 2025, is scheduled to throw two innings Saturday. Dombrowski expects him to reach 20 innings during fall ball. What comes after that remains an organizational debate.

    This was from The Athletic. Looks like they livestream the games, so it’s 6:30 EST … looking forward to watching!

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24. With Sean Manaea on the mound, Hays, Sosa, Rojas are in the lineup. But I fully expect Stott (and likely Marsh) to finish the game.

    Sosa (.861 OPS vs lefties) and Hays (.941 OPS) need to find a way to impact the game.

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25. depressing

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26. Too often Aaron (big $) Nola is not the better pitcher when you need him to be.

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    1. He was doing fine until he knew for sure that the offense was just not going to help him.

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       1. I agree. Its a big ask of any pitcher to say you know if you give up just a run or two we probably lose…

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    2. ………… and the (big $) bats, might you have a word for them ……. seems to me at this point we have scored no runs.

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27. Can you say ‘spit the bit?’ I can.

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28. Changes will definitely be needed in the off-season. This was a 500 team from June on, moves are needed. They’ll try to bring back Hoffman and/or Estevez and they’ll bring back Walker and get someone to compete with him for the 5th spot as Painter won’t be up until June/July. The real changes must come with the lineup. Stott regressed this year but isn’t going anywhere. Bohm will be here until Miller is ready in late 2026 at the earliest. I wonder if they’d bring in another SS and move Trea to 3b or CF. Trade Casty to a young team? Trade JT? I think he’s overrated with his best days behind him but he’s still tradeable if they don’t wait much longer. Any other moves they can make?

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    1. Any chance this causes them to pursue Soto?

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29. yes, they need to trade Marsh and Fire the manager. Trade Bohm move turner to third. Clearly bullpen upgrades needed. They need to find hitters with bat to ball skills even if it means taking a step back

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    1. They have gone all in the last three trading deadlines getting relievers for prospects and they still need more relievers? Will it ever end? I guess next year at the deadline they’ll trade Caba and Saltiban for another guy that will last two months.

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30. Come what may, I don’t expect a lot of moves. I don’t expect them to jettison any big contracts, try as they might with Walker. They can’t run it back with this roster and expect to sell tickets. I expect a single move that moves the needle and I hope it’s for a bat to protect Bryce in the order. Then some smaller signings on the margins. LF with Hays/Marsh screams for an upgrade.

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31. Like the Miller Lite commercial …….. it’s the bats ……….. it’s the bats …….. it’s the bats …… IT IS THE BATS!

    We had 5 hits, 2 BBs, 2 hbps and 2 for 7 with runners in scoring position.

    Sosa makes a clean play on the force at home we have a dp and we are out of that inning with out anymore damage but, it doesn’t matter because all we can score with our measly pathetic offense is 2 runs, two, deuce ……. a couple …… two.

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    1. neuruff. Agree. If you cannot score you cannot win big games. Really quite simple. Padres come back from 5-0 hole to win. Ask Zack Wheeler. Hopefully they can find a way to get to game 5 and give Wheeler another chance. But I have my doubts. I was unaware that Sandy Koufax came out of retirement yesterday. Oops. Guess it was only sidewinder Sean Manea.

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32. The Phillies have scored a grand total of 1 run in the 1st 5 innings of the 3 games. The offense has totally been shut down by the Mets starters. And that falls on the hitters making the money. If you want to blame somebody, blame the big money hitters.

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    1. I think the most frustrating part was in the first inning, we actually looked REALLY good. Saw a good number of pitches, made very solid contact, just didn’t find gaps. But it seemed like they had a plan going in and they were willing to execute it.

       But nope. We then only made solid contact like 4 times the rest of the game. Shout out to Trea, though. 1 for 3 with a walk is a decent night, and he was uncharacteristically patient as well. Probably the only hitter that looked like he’s made an adjustment in this series.

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33. Win 11 games, I don’t care what happens inbetween.

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34. it is so frustrating to watch this offense when you compare it to Mets, Arizona, Padres who don’t K and put ball in play. Moving runners – playing small ball. Nola did a good job but he tired and walked the critical runs – only to see relief almost save it but give up the go ahead runs when Kerkering fails to execute.
    I don’t know what the fix is but I think we need a left fielder that can hit for average and contact. We’ll see.

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    1. Kerkering didn’t fail to execute. He came in with the bases loaded and got a double-play grounder and a fly out. Sosa failed to execute.

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       1. Well he did fail to execute that one pitch. But you’re right that the inning should have already been over, and you cannot expect a pitcher to never make a mistake.

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35. this team is toast. Same crappy approach at the plate. BP imploding. Showing zero heart. Bohm pouting like a little baby. Beyond frustrating. Maybe next year (yeah right)

    Bryce had two guys on and no outs…looked lost. Then crappy baserunning by Schwarber to get doubled up.

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    1. There’s plenty to complain about, but that wasn’t Schwarber’s fault (nor Casty’s). It was a 96 MPH line drive directly into a glove. Schwarber took his secondary lead, froze, and then started running back but he had no chance.

       Just bad luck on that one.

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36. I’m not giving up all hope but I didn’t have a lot coming in the way we played down the stretch.

    I guess the Dodgers could come back but I don’t see that either. It appears you will get the 2 hottest teams down the stretch in the Padres and Mets for the NLCS.

    Either way after the season it is time to shake things up. Hopefully we don’t make the mistake of 08-12 era and hang onto guys too long.

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    1. DMAR…what can Dombrowski do! All the LTCs on veteran players are virtually unmovable…….the three movable, with any value in trade, players are Stott, Marsh and Bohm. Maybe Ranger with one year remaining is a possibility ….but everyone else,…ie Casty, Walker, the Phillies are stuck…circa 2012.

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       1. Romus, we are not there yet. Win tonight… and the conversation is much different

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37. Saw a stat. Don’t know if it’s correct last three games 6-9 are 3-34. And the Mets starters arent that good

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38. Phillies are very capable of winning this series. Have some faith

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    1. what have you seen from the hitters to have any optimism? Bullpen also sucks

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       1. I’ll answer afterwards, but they win tonight. Book it.

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39. i would offer Walker to Marlins pay 30 of his 39 million. Marlins might bite thinking if he pitches decent. They could flip him for prospect and cash.

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    1. that would be worth it…. It would be like buying wins when he pitches. Against the Phillies. You’d have to have a stipulation that he has to sit out X number of division rival games thought 🙂

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       1. If you’re the Marlins, why would you pay 10 cents to take Taijuan Walker from the Phillies? He’s not an asset, he’s a liability. He has negative worth. Seriously.

          But getting someone to take $30 million is salary, you’ve got to be kidding me. This will NEVER, EVER happen.

          This is like the Elton Brand trade, some team would need to get great prospects and have the Phillies take all but about $6-8 million a year in salary for them to even think about a trade

          Even the Marlins are not this stupid.

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          1. Now, if you’re saying the Phillies would pay $30 of the $39 million, that might happen, but you’d need to throw some good prospects in there. At that point, if you’re the Phillies, you’re only saving $4.5 million a year and that amount might not be worth losing some good prospects. FYI – the Phillies are giving prospect in this deal, not getting them. Nobody is sending legitimate prospect to the Phillies for the opportunity to get a pitcher who loses every game.

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             1. So, what I think will happen is this.

                The Phillies will shop Walker this off season and nobody will offer them anything close to a reasonable deal for the WSPIB (Worst Starting Pitcher In Baseball).

                So they will go into ST hoping Walker can turn it around somehow and they will give him a chance to do that. He might even get some starts early in the season, but if he continues to stink, I expect them to DFA him sometime in April or early May. If he does okay, they will try somehow to trade him.

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          2. i said we pay 30. Marlins ohly on hook for 9 million over three yr. With a chance he gives them some good starts. To move him for prospects

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             1. If you were the Marlins, wouldn’t you sooner put $2 or 2.5 million into Turnbull, or somewhat more for Shane Bieber? For a team with gambling instincts, there are better guys to take a flyer on than Walker is.

                Reduced velocity has trimmed Walker’s effectiveness and his margin for error. His best hope is developing a trick pitch to his arsenal. If the same Walker comes back to ST, then Walker has tied the Phillies’ hands and is history.

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             2. Rocco. 2 years

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40. Jose Quintana has 12 appearances lifetime versus the Phillies. The first came in 2013 and the rest came between 2017 to now. He has pitched 66.1 innings with 26 BBs and 75 Ks. He has given up 59 hits and his ERA is 3.53.

    I thought his numbers against the Phils were better than that. That gives me hope. If they can get a few runs early like (I think) they did against him in London, we all may have something to cheer about. Let’s go Phillies.

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    1. They scored 3 runs against him in 3.2 IP in London, so your memory is correct. But I’m not as hopeful on repeating that since he went 7 scoreless against us in September. And our offense more closely resembles its September self than its early season self.

       We can’t count on our offense to put up a lopsided number, so this game will entirely come down to which version of Ranger we get.

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       1. Dan……..thinking they can pull out a win today, though not confidant come Friday at home. Home has not been well for them lately.

          As for Ranger….Top probably has him on a short leash.

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          1. Romus. Sometimes the unexpected happens in baseball. The way the two teams are playing it will be unexpected if the Phillies win tonight. But it was unexpected that Alonso hits a 3-run homer off of Williams with one out in the ninth. Never know for sure. I went to bed with Pads down 5-0. Look what happened since there is no clock a team has to get the 27th out. Sometimes that does not happen.

             Count me on the not real confident side. Hope Ranger has good game, and the bats wake up some. If not …

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41. How? Romus they can hit.

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    1. rocco…..yeah, will be some type of a lucky doing for them to come back. Maybe someone will pull a rabbit out of the hat for them

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42. Forget Walker. If I’m looking forward to 2025 – after this miraculous comeback v. Mets – my concerns are Bohm, Stott and Marsh.

    Rojas is what he is – .240 with great CF.

    Marsh was tracking to be a .270 / 15 bat with OF defense v. RHP. Not sure I am comfortable with his consistency.

    Stott regressed offensively. Great glove, but we need a top of lineup bat.

    Bohm peaked at All Star Game – .290 / 70 RBI / 40+ 2Bs. Best time to sell is now.

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    1. Bohm is extremely immature and sucks the energy out of the team

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       1. He does have those sulky petulant moments when he is not hitting. He has to avoid pouting when in a slump…you would think he could learn from some of the vets like Turner, Harper Schwarber or Castellanos when they are going bad and how they carry themselves.

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43. Thomson should flip flop Harper with Schwarber

    Rojas should not be in there unless its late innings with the lead for defense. Hayes is useless so just play Marsh in CF and Wilson/Clemons in LF.

    Stott is the one guy where I don’t care how he is going offensively his defense is that good he stays in the LU.

    From there not much you can do but hope JT and Trea somehow find themselves.

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    1. I hope Clemens and Wilson get a shot today. They’ve shown much more patience and plate discipline than Marsh and Hays

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       1. Wilson in LF

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44. Looking like both NL bye teams losing in their 1st rd to the hot wild card teams. Again…

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    1. …same in AL, if KC beats the Yankees in the next game.

       Many say the long lay-off/rest period for the top two teams in each league has no bearing , but the results seem to indicate something different.

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       1. Time to change it. Add 2 more wild card teams and no bye?

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          1. Maybe something like that…..right now it looks like winning the division is not working well.

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       2. It’s not the layoff. The problem is the teams that get the top 2 seeds usually haven’t played a stressful game in about a month. Tough to wake it back up after cruising for last 6 weeks.

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          1. to me, the best part forward is a minor tweak. Keep the same format, just make the DS, best of 7 vs best of 5. Part of the reason a team wins the divisions is due to the organizational depth. A top heavy team can be exposed in a 5gm series. Not that it can’t happen in a 7 gm series but it’s less likely

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          2. Either –

             (a) Add 2 teams so no bye – or –

             (b) Make the Round a best of 7, not 5 – or –

             The reality, Phils / 22, Rangers / 23 and now the Mets have had a brutal Road – all 3 played 2 road series before the playoffs, then opened on Road.

             Something to be said about perseverance and team bonding.

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45. Rincones ropes double yesterday.

    https://www.milb.com/video/gabriel-rincones-jr-s-rbi-double?t=milb-top-videos

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46. Thomson has zero feel for managing the bullpen. I’m mostly a fan but it’s his biggest weakness

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    1. Calling it a weakness isn’t doing it justice. It’s his poison. It’s literally killing us.

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       1. And that statement was before the slam.

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          1. I also called the grand slam before it happened. Just wish I had placed a bet on it since MLB shoves gambling down our throats.

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47. If you disect the top and bottom of the 6th inning, you will know everything there is to know about the weaknesses of this baseball team.

    When you realize our only run came on a play where Bohm passed his fielding prowess onto his counterpart, you know what a hitting juggernaut we truly are.

    DD can’t fix this mess, too many bloated contracts and the guys we are stuck with …. can’t win in “crunch time” playing their brand of swing & miss baseball. They led us to believe they were special by their 1rst half play and brought us back to reality by their 2nd half play. Well, we wait on 2025, huh?

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    1. absolutely pathetic showing tonight.
       I don’t foresee any big signings this offseason so not much eh be excited about for next year outside of Painter. Maybe Miller and Crawford will be ready.

       marsh sucks. Bohm is too immature, and left field is a massive hole. This team has no heart or true leader

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48. Very simple. If you cannot score, you cannot win. Plus, just awful bullpen. But really this team played like this most of the last two months. They had one little spurt in there but mostly awful. If not the Mets, any other would most likely have the same end result. Mets do resemble Phillies of 22.

    I really do not see major changes, but something probably needs to be done. I think you will see at least 20 of this roster return. Walker is the only sure thing, but he may be back. Who know. Just a disappointing finish.

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49. Slowly, I have soured on Turner. He’s okay, but he’s not the star we were told he was and he doesn’t handle good pitching very well. He waves at bad pitches more often than Castellanos. I have many grievances, but after 2 years of Turner, I am a little disappointed.

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    1. And there are 9 more years left on that deal. Ugh!!!

       Ultimately, you know whose fault this is? It’s on DD. I don’t think he’s the greatest judge of hitting talent. We’ll see how he bounces back.

       Was the team in a slump? Yeah, but it’s more than that – they are team that is very susceptible to advanced pitching and they were outclassed – it was embarrassing. There needs to be some significant changes here.

       As for the relievers, yes, they had problems and got hammered. But they were pretty good throughout the year and I understand why they acquired Estevez. Not sure what else they could have done with this, but they will need to bring in some new arms.

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       1. He also doubled down and brought in Hays who has never seen a pitch out of the strike zone that he didn’t like. And threw 4 ridiculous years at Walker.

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    2. he didn’t show up this series that’s for sure. He needs a few good to great years in a row for you to lose that feeling.

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    3. I wasn’t a fan of his contract just because SS don’t age well. Jimmy Rollins was a league average player at age 30. Same with Brandon Crawford. The only player that was productive into his mid 30s was Derek Jeter. To Trea’s credit, he’s been slightly above average his 2 years in Philadelphia but obviously we’re expecting more. And his remaining deal is 9/245.

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       1. Jeter was not a good SS in his mid 30s.

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50. I didn’t have a good feeling going into playoffs. They have not played well since the break. On Turner, you’re right. Average d at best and faded in playoffs.

    same old story. The bats died at the wrong time. Zero clutch hitting or big bull pen out. Tough finish with a window shrinking.

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51. Thank you Dave Dombrowski. Maybe next year at the trade deadline you can trade Painter, Miller, Crawford and Tait for another two month rental reliever stiff.

    I wish to hear the name Red October no more forever.

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52. Some guys can only do it under the dim lights, getting it done for non-contenders. Some guys can only cut it as backups on contending teams. Dombrowski needs to shop for guys who have shown they can do it when the lights are brightest. Might upset the chemistry of a team that is a little too self-contented.

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53. Window is shrinking to me is nuts.Middleton is a owner who will spend. With Painter. Miller. Crawford in the wings. They will still have a shot. For next five yrs. Harper isnt fading. And he is there leader. DD must solve the lineup.problem of runners,getting on and everyone trying for the three run homers. And must get a closer. I don’t know what to do with Hoffman. So good until playoffs.

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54. The offense has not been the same since Hoskins went down. Now the lineups feels short. Harper needs protection.

    In years to come, many will shake their head how this team didn’t win one with Wheeler & Harper, and the supporting cast of Schwarber & Nola. The first two are near all time great playoff performers… just crazy. No way this shouldn’t have gone to 5 games. 🤮

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55. So what’s next for the Phillies for 2025? I’m going to guess what they will do, not what I want them to do.

    Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Realmuto, Castellanos, Stott I think are not going anywhere. That leaves Bohm, Marsh, Rojas. I think the Phillies will try to move Bohm with no takers. Marsh will be told to work on hitting lefties and striking out less in the offseason. If Crawford comes into ST on fire, I think he has a decent chance of taking CF. If he doesn’t, he won’t be staying long at Lehigh. He’ll be up at the first chance. I know, changing 1 out of 9 hitters isn’t a lot, but that’s where I think the Phillies are. And no, I don’t think the Phillies will spend $400M on Juan Soto.

    Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Sanchez are not going anywhere. I would be shocked if Painter made the team out of ST. Walker is either going on the IL or getting DFAd during ST. Nobody in their right mind is going to give up even a lotto ticker for Walker. It would be nice if Abel comes out of nowhere and takes the 5th spot. But I think it’ll be a very open competition in ST for it.

    Kerkering, Banks, Strahm, Ruiz are not going anywhere. I think the Phillies will try to trade Alvarado. Even with his meltdown, I think the Phillies will bring back Hoffman.

    And that’s it. Minimal changes which I think a lot of people do not want to hear.

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    1. Minimal changes is not what Middleton will want. He wants the trophy. I believe will get at least two bats in outfield. And a closer. Soto is not off our radar. Not with this owner

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       1. So the Phillies are going to turn into the Mets of 2023? Sure, that turned out great for the Mets.

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       2. My sense that DD made minimal tweaks at Trade Deadline was that he didn’t want to hurt the beloved locker room chemistry.

          Sense that is concern is changed. True you don’t want an a*hole, but the ‘vibe’ is gone –

          • Need a Cather as JT is 34, needs to catch 100 games, bat 7
          • Need a LF with power
          • Need a 3B with power / defense
          • Need to watch age – team is creaking to 30

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          1. and Bohm became a liability with his pouting. He sucked the energy out of this team with his crying. I don’t want to see him back. Dude is not strong enough for Philly

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    2. Probably but if I were Middleton I’d tear the band aid off now starting at the very top by bringing a fresh set of eyes at the GM position.

       Steve Cohen being a hedge fund guy knows how to cut bait when he picks a losing stock. Middleton should learn the same lesson. Cohen getting Stearns from the Brewers was an excellent move.

       He (JM) made a valiant effort and there is no shame in that. Obviously we are stuck with a few guys and that’s fine but a new GM should be instructed that everything is on the table if it gets us younger and improves our long terms prospects.

       I kind of knew in the back of my mind that Estevez deal was going to bite us in the arse….again.

       Klassen and Aldegheri may never amount to anything but they were worth more than a rental and its those types of moves that potentially set your franchise back decades.

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       1. Trading Klassen and Aldegheri isn’t setting the franchise back decades. Can we tone down the hyperbole a bit.

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56. Here are questions I have going forward:

    • Who will Ranger Suarez be? There was speculation during the season whether Suarez was in line for a 6=year $150 M deal. I think he’s in line for arbitration and who knows if he has a future in Philly beyond 2025.
    • Who will Jeff Hoffman be? Hoffman put himself in line for a major deal this off-season. His late and off-season performance casts doubt whether he can head the bullpen for a contending team. I don’t think he’ll be seen or get paid in free agency as an elite reliever.
    • Who will Rafael Marchan be? Will he show himself ready to step in as a starting calibre catcher in 2026? Unless it comes to light that Realmuto was playing hurt, then we’re forced to acknowledge that 2025 marks his swan song in Philly.
    • Who is Trea Turner? He will start next season in the doghouse of Philly fans. It will be a long season for Trea if he doesn’t improve all aspects of his game in 2025.
    • Who will Alec Bohm be? Bohm did not have a disastrous season but played down following his first All Star selection. Can he play under the bright lights? Next year will determine if he has a future in Philly?
    • Who will Orion Kerkering be? He’s shown flashes oof being a future closer in waiting. No one thinks of him in that role now. Can he get back on track as a reliable high leverage reliever?
    • Who can Andrew Painter be? He won’t be a pillar of the 2025 Phils but will he show out as a pillar going forward?

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    1. I can see Ranger being traded, and possibility Bohm along with him—and just maybe together in a package. Not sure JTR will be back either. Both JTR and Ranger have one year remaining on their contracts so it will not be too difficult in moving them to a team on the cusp.

       But who replaces them on the roster… and not sure the return value will be all that great…but then again changes have to be made…..cannot come back with the same roster next season. After the third straight year of losing and the last two as favorites they now have a losing mentality.

       Perhaps time to take a step backwards and start afresh as much as one can.

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57. Generally hitting is contagious for Phillies. Most on team hit well or they all don’t. When not hitting well don’t even have productive outs. That has to change

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58. baseball playoffs have become unpredictable, and more like March Madness. We can’t complain as what the players and fans are feeling is what the Braves went through. That said I don’t think this team gets past SD the way they played. Atl had a historic offense and the Phillies won, and the Mets are not NLCS good imo, but they are there.

    to all the players that may or may not read this. Ya did me dirty. I have family members in Queens. Imma never hear the end of this. OMG. Not cool.. not cool

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    1. LOL Tac. I hate the Mets but from afar I have always loved Lindor.

       I like our guys top to to bottom they are class human beings but this is a performance based business and they all understand that.

       Its time for a new vision…

       Hoping for an American League underdog to make it and that will be my team the rest of the way. If it ends up Yankees Dodgers I won’t even watch.

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59. Need a fresh set of eyes, fire DD and bring in new blood to oversee the overhaul/retool. That Turner contract is utterly ridiculous and was a fireable offense.

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    1. Yes and no. Yes a fresh set of eyes for sure but I can’t fault them for the Turner deal. Middleton made that Harper deal and in doing so he essentially got into bed with him. A savvy move because Bryce reignited this cities baseball fever.

       When Bryce went on the broadcast and said publicly Trea was his favorite guy in baseball you knew right then Middleton was going to get him at whatever cost.

       I like that. JM is a man of his word and pretty much Bryce has been everything that we needed him to be.

       Fundamentally was it a good contract, no of course not.

       Bryce is here 7 more seasons. He understands the game quite well so I am sure he knows he is not surrounded with the right talent to get him that ring. So whatever moves get made to reach that goal so be it.

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       1. It was a horrendous decision, aka the “dumb money” moment. The fans turned on the 2008 core once they went downhill, then it was nearly a decade of apathy from the fan base.

          An aging an injury prone Harper isn’t going to draw ppl to the park on his own. Turner has a very good chance at being booed mercilessly the last 5-6 years of his deal.

          Without some very smart moves, this roster has a good chance of going south fast. Unfortunately, they have ~$250M tied up in aging players with major gaps in their game. And the minor league pipeline hasn’t produced any stars in awhile.

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       2. I’m hearing all this… but depending on the FA available, players in the trade market, I’m not going to feel good about 2025.
          That said … we all look at Harper contract… loook at Wheeler’s contract + Nola’s. Those contracts were not given out to sit out the FA market imo

          Final thoughts, what would the Rays do?
          they’d trade wheeler, Schwarber , and Marsh & probably Realmuto. Then retool for 2026

          Painter, Nola, Sanchez still isn’t bad. Don’t shoot the messenger I’m spitballing. Not saying I want to, but that’s what they do

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          1. Exactly put anything and everything on the table without emotion. The difference between us and the Rays is that we can play in the FA market for the right players.

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60. I wish we had Hao Lee back. I called him our best position prospect at the time we traded him for Lorenzen.

    He’s 21 at AA he slashed 298/363//851 OPS. He had 19 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 12 HRS, 33 BBs, and 69 Ks (19% K Rate)

    There is your future leadoff hitter if he were still in our system…

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    1. Yes…Lee would be nice in the system again…but for me also ….the Tiger I would not mind having back is Matt Vierling. Tigers will need to move someone…..Colt Keith is there to stay, and local DELCO kid Kevin McGonigle will be on the scene in two years in the infield also, so they may need to move someone.

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       1. The best move the Tigers made was hiring Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg after after a young Chris Illitch realized Al Avila wasn’t equipped with the skillset needed to get that franchise back on the right track.

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    2. …… traded for a no-hitter, so to speak, huh?

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61. I heard someone mention Hoskins. This team got better without Hoskins. Addition by subtraction. He was streakier than anyone. More importantly, taking his glove off the field was huge. Harper’s D versus his won us a couple games this year.

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    1. that was me.

       Agree on the defense, 110%. The offense is what I was referencing. It hasn’t been the same since he went down. Lineup was much deeper with him in there… as it’s a damn shame we didn’t get to see the offense click with Turner added.

       Hoskins could walk … & hit homers. A mini Schwarber

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62. Assume Jim has evacuated the CLW/Tampa/St Pete area….I see were the storm caused great destruction…..wonder how the Complex held up…Trop Field’ ‘s roof was virtually destroyed

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    1. Yes Romus. Can’t get lost in the things that don’t really matter. Hoping Jim and his family are all ok.

       I have a sister in Punta Gorda, a nephew in North Port and another Nephew in Bonita Springs.

       All are safe but without power.

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63. Hi, all. We made it. No power. Just enough juice on my phone to send this. We were lucky. A lot of tree limbs in our yards and our shed was wrecked. But no injuries. I’ll be back on Phuture Phillies when we get power restored. I don’t expect it to happen as quickly as after Helene when it was back on in 25.5 hours.

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    1. Good to hear that you are safe. Crazy storm.

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    2. Good to hear you are well – take care and I hope you get power soon.

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64. Dr. Jimmy and Mr. Jim

    When I’m pilled, you don’t notice him

    He only comes out when I drink my gin

    The Who and I are glad you are well

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65. Good news, Jim.

    Amidst the chatter starting elsewhere, I think Topper’s job is safe. 3 trips to the playoffs in 3 years. Now a title with the 2nd best record in MLB. No clubhouse issues that the public is aware of.

    And I think Dombrowski’s job is safe. I think Middleton signed off on the major moves that have set the imprint of this team. Firing DD would signal a tear-down I would be shocked to see.

    It shouldn’t be lost here or anywhere that this was a team fans wanted to pay to see play. Amidst the disappointment, Middleton has raked in a lot of revenue. Fans an’t derive consolation from the team’s bottom line in the same way Middleton can.

    By extending Wheeler and Nola last off-season, the Phils have signaled that they’re doubling down on key elements to their roster. To my ear, that sounds like Turner, Castellanos, Realmuto, Schwarber and Bohm are all sticking around. They’re All Stars or are getting paid like All Stars.

    I think the moves the Phils make this off-season will disappoint those seeking major changes. But they headed down a path with Harper and guys Harper wanted to play with that they can’t readily walk back from. The development of some kids on the farm might force some moves but there is no one in the system forcing a move as of now.

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    1. I do think Crawford and Painter will eventually force their way onto the major league roster. Will that be enough?

       Eiberson Castellano, the Paul Owens award winner for pitchers, has mentioned that he’s targeting making the Phillies roster sometime next season. Aidan Miller can’t be too far behind either.

       I think it’ll be minimal changes for 2025. 2026 is another story with Schwarber, Realmuto, Suarez all FAs.

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66. division title, that is, the first in 13 years.

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67. playoff fix …

    1. Bump the divisional round to 7gms. It rewards a fully built roster with depth as well as allowing a rusty team a margin of error to unjust
    2. have the bye week teams have to play the bottom feeder teams, for draft pick positions. Games don’t have to be televised , minor league pitchers can be bought up to throw for Divison winner, but not low seed. Batters Need good reps for team.
    3. Or … more like World Cup style, teams play everyone in elimination brackets, minimal time off, 2 best records are spotted 2 wins (maybe only 1), 3 rounds

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68. I was at the game last night. Never felt comfortable even with a lead. A few thoughts.

    1. Bohm is bad defensively. I will die on this hill. Range matters defensively. On tv you don’t see how range impacts a play. But live, you can see clearly. Bohm had two poor defensive plays early in the game. Neither was technically ruled an error, because being slow footed doesn’t generate an error. But imo he is a huge liability defensively. Bohm is also painfully slow running the bases. It was so painful to watch him run that I looked up his speed. He has the same sprint speed as Yan Gomes, a 37 yo catcher. (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/sprint_speed). Bohm is a 1 tool player (hit tool). He has no power, no speed, is a poor defender and doesn’t take walks. The only value is when his BABIP is high.
    2. As much as it pains me, JT looks like he is on the downside. He missed several block-able balls. That he didn’t have a hit in the series is a disaster. But he also didn’t have productive outs. He missed a great opportunity to get our second run with a sac fly.
    3. The Mets just beat our bullpen. They beat our top guys. They did it all series. That’s just how it goes. We had several all-stars in our pen and they beat them.
    4. In a 4-game series, bats can go cold. I saw this post and it reminded me of the Arizona series last year. We seem to lose our plate discipline in the playoffs. https://x.com/NotTheBobbyOrr/status/1844025208904262046
    5. Hat tip to Castellanos. I am hard on him, but he is a gamer. He was a very productive player.

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    1. I agree 100% on point 1 and 2. The Phillies will likely still keep JT coming off a 3 WAR season, but I’m worried that his numbers could really slide in the final year of his deal.

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       1. I think they need to get a real catcher that can platoon with JT the way that the Braves do it with their catchers.

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69. Jim. Glad to hear you are safe. One of my high teammates is in Fort Myers and he texted he is fine. He had sent me some pics last night.

    Phillies. Just my opinion and nothing else. This team was really good before the final game before the All-Star break. Eight guys made the All-Star game. Awesome. We had high hopes this was the year. Although I always liked the odds, they had with a 3-2 lead last fall at CBP to make the Series.

    Something happened in the 2nd half. Not sure what. Maybe the guys just lost focus. There is a really a fine line between success and failure in baseball. Maybe the other teams just figured out how to play the Phillies and have success. I heard on one broadcast late in the year that the Dbacks in the NLCS learned to simply not throw the Phillies hitters strikes and they would be successful. That seemed to be a good plan the 2nd half of the season as well. Maybe it was minor injuries although this team was much less affected as some others who lost several key players for the season. Maybe they just wore down. This is 3 straight postseasons and more games than normal for a regular season. Plus, this for the most part is the same players. Maybe the Mets are just better at this time. Even when the Phillies led 1-0 in the two games, they lost I was pretty sure neither lead would hold up over 9 innings.

    Where do they go from here? Good question. No idea. I am sure there will be some changes. Probably some in LF and CF but maybe not. Beyond that I think everyone returns. My guess almost all of the pitching staff returns. Probably a couple Walker and Estevez find new homes. Bench players most certainly were not the issue. Most did well.

    So now on October 10 the Phillies just wait for the Hot Stove season and then Spring Training in 25. We diehard fans just have another long offseason to look forward to.

    Jim. thanks so much for this site. I do enjoy all of you guys.

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    1. Don…..the great mega-million superstars swung at pitches outside the zone…reg season and the brief play-off of four games….close to 35%….up there among league leaders. And with that there will be soft outs and obvious Ks…..do not see that changing with 30 year old veterans.

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       1. Romus. I saw those 35%. But is has to change or expect more of the same. Oldruff. You are best with the one liner. It goes something like this: “doing the same thing over and over and over again and expecting different results.” If things stay status quo results will most likely go down even.

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       2. i don’t know if it’s been addressed. Last playoff we lost by going after a lot of bad pitches. Where did DD address this issue? I don’t see any moves that helped us from chasing. .

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70. Early off season thoughts

    Phillies gotta go big again. They just have too. I think their deadline response the past 2 years is a tell towards this.

    Adames & Santander vs Soto

    3B/CF Turner DH Schwarber 1B Harper SS/2B Adames LF Santander RF Castellanos C -Reamuto 2B Stott CF Marsh/Rojas/Crawford

    or

    SS Turner DH Schwarber 1B Harper LF Soto LF 3B Bohm RF Castellanos C -Reamuto 2B Stott CF Marsh/Rojas/Crawford

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    1. No, they don’t. The Mets got better in 2024 with a lower team salary. How? They got rid of some their veterans (traded Canha, traded Verlander, traded Sherzer, let Carrasco walk) and got younger. And some of their young players took a step forward, especially Vientos and Peterson. Then they made some low cost signings that totally worked: Manaea, Iglesias, Severino upped his game in September and October).

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       1. I dont’ what to rely on that. Not with a healthy Braves & Dodgers team. Scott’s regression batting wise is the biggest surprise to me from the season. I expect the Mutts to add as well.

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71. Sorry its an office today so Im a spam a bit:

    I’m also going to say… you probably gotta extend Realmuto. His bad might be going down,but how how much of that swing and miss in GM1 was Wheeler and how much was Realmuto’s pitch selection. They need to extend him while building up the offense to replace his production.

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    1. You absolutely do not have to extend Realmuto. He will be 34 next season, missed 30+ games due to injury, and just posted his lowest WAR since 2016. He is in obvious decline. Let him play out his final year. If he stinks, he walks, If he does well, give him a QO.

       Here’s Mike Piazza’s WAR by age: 34 (2.1), 35 (0.2), 36 (0.1), 37 (3.0), 38 (0.1)

       Piazza is a HOFer and he was finished by age 35.

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       1. My argument is “probably”. Needs a deeper dive, but it stems from his game calling. We have a good sample now without him. How much better is the pitching staff with his “quarterbacking” the pitch selection vs Marchan, Stubbs, etc? An example is the Astros. The offense should be able to survive with one dead bat IF his defense/pitch selection is near the best in the game.

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          1. I would offer an extension for JTR but it certainly won’t be for $20+ million per year. However, he’s their best option as a bridge to Tait since Marchan can’t remain healthy. Comparing an athletic JTR with on offense only catcher like Piazza is just silly.

             In 2025, replace Stubbs with Marchan and start reducing JTRs workload.

             Also, I would be looking for a trade partner for Marsh. I was a big fan of the trade and his play early on, but he has entirely too much swing/miss in his game for a guy who’s not hitting 30+ hrs per season, especially on this team with the other swing/miss options in the line-up.

             He has trade value, but they need a LF who can play every day and has some bat to ball skills. Also, zero chance they should offer arbitration to Hays.

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             1. If it is just a  bridge to Tait if that is the idea…..then what about one of these free agents….Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly, Andrew Knizner, Reese McGuire, or Tomas Nido…all younger than JTR,  if he is moved.  And there is still Marchan around who could be the number one guy.  But now  it is also up to Tait being ready to come onto the scene in 3 years.

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                1. Remus, you’re a WAR guy. How much is 3 WAR worth?

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             2. If an athletic JT can’t hit as well as an “offense only” Piazza, then he won’t be able to get on base as much to use his speed. So if JT’s hitting is in decline, where’s his value coming from? His defense? And if that’s the case, why give JT an extension?

                Roll the dice with Marchan and another veteran catcher and use that money elsewhere.

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                1. You do realize that a catcher’s primary role is playing defense, correct? But you are the WAR king, why was Piazza’s WAR low? Because he defense sucked.

                   Why give JTR an extension? Because he’s still a good catcher. Again, the extension isn’t for $20m per season but he’s still the best combination offensive/defensive catcher available.

                   Realmuto is still posting an OPS of .750 every season so it’s not like his offense is terrible. He just shouldn’t be expected to be a key offensive piece anymore.

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                2. Agreed with 3up3kkk. Im assuming, but I’d want to confirm as well… The metrics of the starters with JT and when Marchan/Stubbs play. I really want to understand if Wheeler’s GM1 performance was his game plan or JT’s. Im under the impression that JT can make on the fly adjustments, has a great recall to pitch sequence from earlier in the series & even season, while being able to tell if the hitter is fooled etc. Wheeler had one of the playoff performances ever in terms of swing and misses… thats about as good as it gets. If Realmuto is a good part of that… you extend him. Not at his current rate, but 15mil is likely fair

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                3. 3up3kkk, JT is one of the highest paid catchers for a reason: his hitting. All those catchers that hang around, if they can’t call a game or have good defense, they either switch positions or don’t last long.

                   I’m comparing Piazza because if a HOFer can decline, anybody can decline, including JT. You disregard other people’s defensive WAR but with JT, well, he brings the defense and intangibles. I know JT is still a decent player but I would rather he walk 1 year earlier than 1 year later. History states that catchers decline quickly in their mid 30s. But you disregard that and still want to give him an extension? Because he’ll be the exception? That’s usually how bad contracts start out.

                   I remember when Trea was signed, DD mentioned that Turner was a superior athlete and that he would be productive for the majority of his contract. 2 years later, does anybody really believe that anymore? The second you start talking about a player being an exception to historical numbers in order to justify a contract, that’s how teams get into trouble.

                   But don’t take my word for it, we’ll see what happens with JT next year.

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       2. Agreed…JTR cannot be extended. Actually I am in favor of moving on….maybe a team like the Mariners, Astros or Giants may want to trade for him for his last year. What can you get in return…just one prospect in a team’s top ten list, and probably between 6 and 10.

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72. Romus. oldruff. Rocco. You guys are so funny. You make me laugh so much. I so enjoy all of you guys as well as everyone else who posts here. What are we going to do the rest of October? That is the question now.

    Tac. I do not disagree that a change of scenery may be the best potion. But honestly, I do not see much change. I may be way off. But I think the 2025 Phillies are going to look very similar to the 2024 Phillies we just saw eliminated. Maybe some minor changes. I do believe that some of these long-term deals are going to come back and bite the Phillies in the …

    Some have mentioned the layoffs for the bye teams. There may be some truth to it hurts but I have played and coached multiple sports for many years and a team simply cannot turn a switch off and on. It just does not work that way.

    Romus. What if the Tigers make the WS vs the Mets. One team given up for long ago. One team within 2 outs of being knocked out in the WC. Baseball is a really hard sport. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose but more often than not the team playing the best baseball at the time is the one that wins.

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    1. Don – The way I see it, 2 options. Middleton is basically playing a good old game of Texas hold’ ‘em. You can’t just look at your team, you have to keep up with the Jones’ of ATL, LA,BAL NYY…then you have MIL, AZ, CLE, and you can add NYM & DET. He’s too far in. He’s gotta go in. 2022 was too soon. Adding Turner to 2022’s team was supposed to put the Phillies into that ATL, LA bracket. This past year, LA & ATL took steps forward. Imagine ATL with Sale & Stridor in the playoffs? Or LA wiht Othani and others. Middleton has to keep adding… but what sucks… is that these players won’t take short to mid term deals. Phils really need the young guys to come in, the Stott to make a leap offensively, and bring in FA. I think Bohm has to go.

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       1. Based on your logic of going all in…..if Bohm goes as you, and I also have suggested, then Bregman must be in the cross-hairs. Now his agent is Scott Boras so it will be costly…….and division rival Mariners are rumored to be going after him in a big way.

          But trying, OTOH, to build a WS ring bearing team with multiple high price free agents does not always work…in fact rarely works.

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          1. True. $$$$ get in the way.

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          2. The problem with these massive FA deals is that when the player declines (and they will decline), then nobody wants that contract. We’ve seen it already with Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. And we’ll seeing it already with Tajuan Walker’s contract, and he only has 2 years left.

             I can probably count on 1 hand how many FA deals worked out where the player was productive into his late 30s. The Phillies are still on the hook for:

             Turner 9/245

             Harper 7/180

             Nola 6/147

             We all know that the final years of all the above deals will be rough. The Phillies need to get younger not older.

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             1. Agree…….but if Middleton is dead set on ‘going all in’ as it was suggested, then you have to live with those later-year albatross contracts. He is the boss that writes those checks.

                Though I do remember when he hired Dombrowski, he mentioned he wanted someone thinking 5 years down the road….maybe the reason Dombrowski has not parted with Crawford, Miller , Painter or Tait..

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             2. Of all the contacts you mentioned above, the Turner contract bothers me the most. I don’t believe we will ever get full value out of that contract even in the short-term.

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       2. Tac. I agree. See article on my screen on Bohm and Hoffman. I did not read but one says Bohm is gone. I can see that. He is really immature for an MLB guy. He pouts most of the time.

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    2. Don…last Friday we were Red October…..five days later we are Dead October.

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       1. Romus. I told you that you guys are so funny. I am actually already over it. I really did not see much chance after watching the last two months. I know I have thrown it out different times. But that 18-3 drubbing by A’s always bothered me. Then the team picked up right after it the rest of the season. Same kind of play.

          Romus. The guys can get in your yacht. Sad.

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73. Romus – I don’t think you are going to have many (or any) teams willing to give you a 6-10 prospect and take on Realmuto’s $23.87M salary.

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    1. Well the Phillies can always pick up 40/50% of the last year salary. Only teams I can see being interested in him are teams who just missed out this year for the play-offs, on the cusp, like the Mariners or Giants….and if he does well for them they may even make an extension offer to him. Teams like the WSox, or the A’s, …teams that are a few years away, I cannot see them being interested.

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74. Romus. So, are you saying the Phillies are going to have Bobby Bonilla contracts in a few years when the young guns arrive? Guess if one is a billionaire, it really does not matter too much.

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    1. Don…look at the Mets…Steve Cohen was going crazy 2/3 years ago…then he brings in David Stearns from the Brew Crew small market team…..and decides to do it the way he knows best….and Cohen let him. And right now it is paying dividends. Now lets see what they do with Polar Bear at first base …..possibly the face of the franchise, maybe with Lindor….and he will command a large long contract because his agent is none other than Scott Boras.

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       1. The Mets payroll is higher than the Phillies. What have the Mets shown that Phillies fans need to recognize?

          They are eating a ton of dead money and it doesn’t matter if the owner has deep pockets. Once guys like Miller, Crawford, and Painter are regular contributors, carrying dead $$$ isn’t a problem. Just need to be willing to cut players lose. Walker will be the first test early in 2025 based on ST performance.

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          1. Loose that is…

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          2. Cohen is eating all that money because he thought he could just come in and throw crazy money around and win titles. He found out quickly that it wasn’t the case. To his credit, he pivoted quickly and shed as much as he could which resulted in all this dead money. Now we’ll see if eating dead money will be a regular occurrence for the Mets. Most big markets teams have eaten money before (Red Sox with Pablo Sandoval), but they haven’t done this on a regular basis. I don’t think any other big market team have done this on a regular basis. Just because an owner is rich and can afford it, doesn’t mean he wants to do it every year. You don’t become rich by throwing money around if you don’t have to. Cohen is a smart guy, I think he will be very measured with his contracts in the future.

             According to Cots, this will obviously change but the Mets have $141M allocated for salaries for 2025 so far. The Phillies have $222M. We’ll see if Cohen goes on a spending spree again.

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75. I can tell you one thing the Phillies absolutely can’t do. That is trade prospects whether at the deadline or in the off season. They will run the risk of following the 08-11 team into oblivion for who knows how long. Enough with the window is closing crap. The window with this group has closed. Acccept it. They aren’t good enough. The older they get the worse things will get. They need real prospects not trading them away.

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76. Well… Gelb is saying that there are no restrictions on the payroll… and he posted a pick of Harper & Soto together at the 2023 Superbowl…Soooo I’d say that a lot better chance than I’d originally thought.

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77. Couple thoughts. First, why would you ever extend jtr right now!? No reason to? Good organizations know when to let a guy walk. Our downfall after 08/09 runs. Leads to a lot of painful years. Maybe after this year you can give him a year or two deal and platoon him but no reason to extend him now.

    Secondly. Lots of talk about copying the Mets. They came within a couple outs of not getting into the playoffs and again past the wildcard round. We do not need to mirror them. They got hot and luck all at the right time. I don’t know if it’s time to anoint Stearns or cohen yet. After all the brewers were fine this year after he left.

    this team needs a shakeup. Virtually same team as last year other than couple bp arms.

    Bohm I thought played good defense all year for his standards. Thought he was sufficient. His playoff d was not good. He seems to have a bad demeanor when things go bad. His face tells it all. Not sure that’s a guy I want around but I don’t give him up for nothing.

    was expecting stott to make a leap this year. He didn’t.

    Watching them swing and miss so much is aggravating. Making mediocre Mets pitching look good.

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    1. You missed the point on ‘copying the Mets’…….letting go of high priced veterans and absorbing the dead money to indoctrinate more youth into the lineup was part of their recent success. Jacob deGrom one of their greatest pitcher in their history and MLB, up there with Tom Seaver, they let go. MadMax also was let go. They ate McCann’s minimal money. Sterns then got lucky on the margins with Manaea, Quintana and Severino…..which next season all three could go back to their former self. But they took the risk.

       Phillies have a few easy ones that all would agree on…Walker, maybe Casty…..but then there is also JTR IMO that should be in question.

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       1. Nope, get the point but we disagree on JTR.

          My point was that all of the people complaining about the long-term contracts for Turner, Harper, Nola, etc. just need to look at how the Mets absorbed those types of contracts and moved on.

          Phillies can do the same with those deals when the time comes assuming they are willing to cut bait.

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78. The Phils outbid the Dodgers last off-season for Yoshnobu Yamamoto, 12 years for a total of $325 M. This offer stood conventional wisdom on its head, in terms of where the Phils’ spending limit was.

    This year there are other pitchers in the Japanese league whose names are being associated with the posting process which is a prerequisite to any signing, One, Roki Sasaki, is more highly rated than Yamamoto was. Any reason to think the Phils would not be interested? Others like Kona Takahashi and Kaima Taira are candidates as well.

    The Phils could find a fifth starter for 2025 from a previously untapped source.

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    1. Outside of So Taguchi, the Phillies really haven’t been players for Japanese talent. So why would the players choose the Phillies? Just for the money? If that was the case, then Yamamoto would be wearing Phillie red. There’s a reason why the same teams are attracting the Japanese talent. That Japanese players care more about familiarity and respect than the money.

       The Phillies need to start signing asian players. It’s as simple as that. The Phillies need to show that an asian player can thrive in Philadelphia. That’s how you’ll reel in the elite asian talent later.

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       1. They have been having success with the signing of Taiwan players….Japanese players seem to be another story.

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          1. The Phillies seem to be going hard into the Taiwanese market, but these players haven’t made it to the bigs and contributed to the Phillies success. The Phillies need to have an asian starter who’s doing well.

             It’s not a coincidence that Dodgers vs Padres was in Seoul this year and that Dodgers vs Cubs are in Tokyo next season. These 3 teams have a history with asian players.

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             1. some of the other large market teams…Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners and Rangers have had success…..Phillies may be one of the few large market teams that has had no success in the players from the NPL.

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             2. Absolutely no reason that we cannot have cheese steaks wrapped in Okonomiyaki at CBP or a side of Kimchi for that matter …….. that was in memory of Hinkie, advocate of the Iron Chef.

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                1. What are you talking about? Put the kimchi in the cheesesteak! I would totally try that. Somebody tell Shay’s Steaks to add that to their menu.

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       2. Roki Sasaki, mentioned above, attended a World Series game in Philly in 2022. Philadelphia is not off the map to justify handwringing here.

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          1. Philadelphia will be in the running for his services. The issue is how Philadelphia will beat out LA/Chicago/Boston/NY/Seattle considering their history with Japanese players.

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79. if I remember correctly and I may not, the Phillies won a world championship with the less than stellar batting of bob boone, and the Oakland A’s won a World Series with their series mvp being a dubnendiza hitting catcher . Plus these were the days when the pitcher batted. I don’t know catcher offense is that critical. Calling the game, though…. I wish I saw more of opposition batters being caught looking because they are fooled. Just going.by game day since broadcasts are never on here, sequencing of pitches and locations seem a bit oredictable

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80. We have generator! But no internet.

    In my haste to publish the AFL Game Stream article I forgot to turn on comments. I have corrected that for anyone who wishes to comment.

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    1. Jim. Glad you are safe. Hope the recovery goes well. I need to try to contact my coach today. I have waited a bit. One of my teammates got back yesterday morning from Fort Myers saying they were ok.

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81. few thoughts on improving the game:

    Do the minor leagues really need all these layers? I ask because the result is usually players getting to the show, where they don’t become FA until age 30, and expect 8+ year contracts. Will see if sports science can help buck the trend, but its creating a lot of dead money at the end of contracts as players seem to want to be paid for past performance + future performances

    I know the MLBPA would never go for it, but it would be awesome to have players salary determined byt their year end stats. Almost like sales reps. Different worlds, but maybe there should be a base salary (half the agreed up contract) and a player needs to hit 60-70% of career avgs to get the full contract amount. It protects the player, organization, and fans from dead weight. I think it’s fair, in a sales world, it would definitely be higher! I just know that the MLBPA would barely go for this.

    Playoffs – something should be done. Especially if the Mets & DET play for the WS. There is an imbalance in the intensity of the schedule for a WC team vs Division winners. Need to incentivize teams who have locked up the division a month prior and teams in the cellar. I mentioned draft picks and being spotted a playoff win if the MLB would consider more of a group grouping playoffs, World Cup style. At minimum , the NLDS shoudl be a best of 7. I know the pursuits woudl be against the cup style playoffs, but it’s probably the fairest considering how “hot” the WC teams come into October.

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82. I think MLB has trimmed the minor leagues as much as possible now. How much further do you think they can go…..one team per each of the four levels and each club’s minor league complex headquarters, then there are the DR academies…one per team are about as low as it can get. They can further reduce the total number of players in a system again but there does come a limit.

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    1. I think I heard a muted “challenge accepted” from the commissioner’s office.

       I expect that MLB could find a way to lower player limits in the minors even further. Do they really need two Class A teams? A complex league? That’s 30-60 jobs there.

       However, I think Tac was questioning whether players could get to the majors at an earlier age.

       That would require MLB shortening the length of service in the MiLB UPC that gives the team control for seven years. Then when a player does reach the majors, there’s three pre-arb years and three arb years (2 and 4 for a super two) before free agency.

       I think MLB is happy to maintain the current status quo with the control over players and salaries it provides.

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       1. Thanks Jim for that info…and good luck in the recovery.

          I suppose the Rays ownership now is scrambling to find a field to play in, in four months…..maybe MLB will help in the financing in building them them a new ballpark

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       2. Exactly Jim – trying to find a way around the grip the MLB has on what age Players anre entering FA. Something has to give… I imagine owners will get sick of burning money at the end of deals. This is the result of their current “agreement”

          Eliminate the dual class A teams, and take one year of control from the teams. That could get the average player of FA at 28 years old vs 30+

          But im sure you are right… the Owners likely want the status quo… like everything else in baseball.

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83. Romus, oldruff and rocco. I have seen a couple articles on computer that says these 6 Phillies will not return for 25. Turnbull, Hoffman, Estevez, Allard, Hays, and Stubbs. Thoughts. Have seen Bohm and Walker as well although I think they both return.

    Seeing this morning article saying Topper may be on the way out after meeting. What have you done for me lately syndrome. Sure, there will be some turnover. But I did not see Topper scoring 11 runs in 4 games and 7 were in one of them. Players simply have to play. Who would have thought last night the hero for the Guardians would be David Fry. 2 strikes, 2 out, 2 run home run and then squeeze bunt for what proved to be the winning run. Guys what position does he play? LOL

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    1. Okay, here’s my view on this.

       DD is not going anywhere and neither is Topper. You can think they should go, but JM is the only person who will make that decision and there’s no way in the world he is getting rid of either guy right now. Topper is of course on a shorter fuse, but the failure here was not mostly on him.

       On the players, I agree that Turnbull goes and one of Estevez and Hoffman goes – probably Estevez (not because he’s better or worse than Hoffman but because he will be quite a bit more expensive). There’s no reason to get rid of Allard so he stays – he’s actually a pretty nice swing starter from the minors. Hays will probably be non-tendered. Stubbs really should go – Marchan is a much, much better player and they need to know if he can be a short-term starter and competent back-up at the very least.

       Bohm, I expect will be back and why shouldn’t he be? He was injured and cold at the end of the season – oh well. But he really improved both as a fielder and hitter. He’s still on the cheaper side and his replacement isn’t here yet. People overstate his importance when he’s playing well and unfairly damn him when he’s cold or makes an error. He’s a good player and he’s not a FA yet. I keep him for now.

       Walker. Please let’s stop talking about him. Unless he makes a miraculous recovery, which I DON’T expect, he’s not going to be a functioning part of this team going forward. He is quite literally the worst starting pitcher who gets regular starts in the big leagues. He won’t be on the team by May 1 short, again, of a miraculous turnaround.

       Under-the-radar moves. I really hope the team slowly re-stocks not only with our hot prospects but other players who have failed elsewhere but could turn it around. I’d love for them to pick up a guy like Brett Baty. He’s young, talented, he’s been displaced by Vientos, but he could actually develop into a very good young hitter with a long runway before he’s a FA. He’s just an example, but they need to be nimble like this.

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       1. As for all the potentially creative Walker trades people have devised, I ask this – if you were an opposing GM, why the heck would you want that disaster of a pitcher on your roster at any cost? Imagine telling your fan base – hey, guess what, we just traded for the very worst pitcher in baseball; a guy who lost every game he started for like 3 months? He’s radioactive. Nobody would or should want him. And if, by some miracle, someone does take him, the Phillies would have to provide a lot of value back in the form of prospects – they would need to pay money (salary – and a LOT of it) and prospects for someone to even consider taking him off your hands. I don’t see that happening, so he’ll stay here on a lark until he forces them to release him.

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          1. catch. I agree. Somone said the Marlins might take him for $9M. Are you kidding. That would be a 9M overspend by the Marlins. I do not see anyone out there who will take him unless it is for FREE

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       2. There’s no doubt that Baty needs a change of scenery, but teams are reluctant to make trades like that because they’ll look really bad if he breaks out for the other team. So as an exercise, what would other teams have to give up for Mick Abel?

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       3. Everything you wrote makes complete sense.

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    2. Hoosier Don – David Fry is one heckuva player in many ways. I don’t care about metrics – that guy can flat out hit and play. They use him as a utility player but he is super. In the 3 game set vs. Phillies this year he tortured them and even won one of the games. You can look it up….every time when I saw him come up I was yelling “walk him.” He gets the bat on the ball – consistently !

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       1. Who is David Fry,,,,he is a late bloomer….28 years old , only started play in MLB at 27 years old…almost 1800 minor league PA with a slash of 268/348/469…..not great jump out you metrics but nice, so he paid his dues so to speak in his 5 minor league seasons after being drafted out of college by the Brew Crew. Successful teams are able to find these guys and role with them in critical positions at critical times. Not to dissimilar to guys like Wes Wilson. Kody Clemens and Buddy Kennedy did with the Phillies this year.

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       2. RU. I know. I was kidding the guys. I have actually watched the Guardians play several times. They are one of the teams that plays like I like the game to be played. They try to win the game by whatever means they can. They do not rely on the 3-run home run. Since I have the Extra Inning package, I get to see lots of teams if I choose.

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       3. Fry is also a throwback to my youth, when there were players who could catch and play 2 or 3 other positions, like 1B, 3B and LF. I don’t understand why that type of player has vanished. Having 3 catchers has given Cleveland all kinds of flexibility.

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84. I heard or read somewhere that Eagles’ GM Howie Roseman keeps a team depth chart looking forward 2-3 years. It’s far easier to do this for baseball with a minor leagues and fewer career-ending injuries throwing spanners in the works.

    I’d be shocked if baseball GM’s in general and Dave Dombrowski in particular don’t do the same, forward-looking depth charts. If so, the first factor is weighing the impact of leading prospects in development.

    A logic emerges. If Aidan Miller is getting consideration as a #B or SS in the future, do you make major transitions at those positions in the interim? I say that you don’t. There’s a timeline that getting rid of Bohm simply doesn’t fit.

    Similarly, J.T. Realmuto has one year left on his deal. You wouldn’t extend him, in the light of his declining value, unless you knew to a certainty that Marchan has no chance as a useful successor. By the same token, you don’t try and unload Realmuto and put a patch on the position. It doesn’t fit the timeline with Marchan in the wings.

    Luis Robert was a prominent name at the trade deadline. I don’t know what stopped a deal from going forward but I suspect that prospect Justin Crawford had something to do with it. If the Phils like a low cost Crawford as a CFer in waiting by 2026, then swapping him out in a Robert deal or blocking Crawford’s path makes no sense. Again, it’s a matter of a timeline.

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    1. I agree with this 100%. If you’re high on a prospect and he’s close, you know that player is going to need an opportunity. You shouldn’t block that player in the near future. When Painter was close at the beginning of 2023, I mentioned that the Phillies need to have an open spot for him. At the time, the jury was still out on Sanchez so there was an open spot for him. Painter got hurt, Falter was not effective, and Sanchez seized his opportunity.

       Fast forward to 2025, the Phillies need a spot for Painter again. The obvious choice is to DFA Walker when the time comes. And if by some miracle that Walker is mildly effective, you trade him.

       Painter and Crawford will likely make their debuts this season. Miller and even Castellano are ticketed for 2026 and maybe even sooner if they break out.

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       1. First, of all, I doubt Painter makes the team out of ST. His innings will be highly limited, so there’s no reason to run his arb/FA clock by promoting him on opening day. They will have time to find a place in the rotation for him and, trust me, he is not going to be “blocked” by Taijuan Walker.

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85. It begins.

    Minor league RHPs Andrew Bellatti, Nick Nelson, and Dylan Covey have elected free agency.

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86. i can’t taking the part of getting there and losing. All the yrs and one title. Guys like Romus and Don at least saw the A”s win titles back in the day. All I get is losing. So disappointing

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    1. rocco……In the best Bill Clinton voice, I feel your pain. In the last 50 years the Phillies have been an under .500 team 22 times, which I think is a little too many.

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       1. ty Romus. Anyone have a rope and know where there, is a strong tree?

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          1. rocco….don’t waste money on a strong piece of hemp……walk to the top of the Walt Whitman in the true Philadelphia fashion, plus you get some exercise before the plunge.

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             1. lmao walk the Walt Whitman. The walk would kill me .

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          2. rocco, having been a phillies fan growing up in PA, for 70 years I’ve seen it all. This is nothing. 107 losses in 1961 including 23 in a row.The 1964 collapse. So many last place finishes. I don’t want to count them and I don’t want to know how many. Over .500 records was a God send. No, these are the good times believe it or not. It would be so much easier to be a Yankees fan but I’m not. My dad was a Phillies fan so that’s what I I’m. My grandson however is a Yankees fan and so is his father. I cheer for him. That’s all that matters.

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          3. Rocco ………… go with the bungee cord off the Walt Whitman ……. you won’t hurt yourself …….. probably will bob for several hours ……. and we can test the market for Rocco Bobble Head Dolls for next year!😎

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             1. Oldruff. Do fats guts float? I can’t swim

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    2. Rocco. A’s? I did see the 1980 WS win. Those late 70s teams were good, but Reds were better.

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87. https://x.com/sis_baseball/status/1844790420611469753

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88. Clarifying some points:

    I believe Middleton wants to spend in FA, and preserve prospects due to the fallout from 07-12. I’m sure it’s seared in his mind. When you think of it this way, I bet he loses less money by spending than he does by not. Avg CBP tick cost was $104 X 41,399 attendance for 81 games. That puts him at $348,745,176. Or …. 100 mil profit per season? Thats before he’s gotta touch any savings or other investments. Then factor in parking & concession … average spend of $20 per person. That’s another 68 million. I’m sure thats a low estimate. Then you got television rights, memorabilia, public appearances…. Licensing deals…Spring Training games…. I’m sure he is fine 😃 If he pulls back… he runs the risk of losing fan interest … which really translates to a fair amount of money lost across all revenue streams (minus the TV deal). The organization goal has to be keeping the turnstyles flowing at the gate. His best bet is to sign FA and keep the young talent. It minimizes the rebuild period to a “retooling”.

    From last year… it sounds like Middleton wants the Japanese market as well. He’s going to want Sasaki (sp) I think he gets him or NYM, SF, or maybe LAA.

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    1. The issue may not be money…..it may be the penalties that the team will incur by losing high draft selections and losing portions of the international money ‘credit line’. It can degrade the prospect pipeline in the long run. Then there is the LTC to the aging superstars…..you are stuck with them as they are less productive…it is still about wins and losses.

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       1. I hear that. Luckily for us, the MLB draft is nowhere near the certainly of the NBA or NFL. Its feels like a total crabshoot even at the top picks. Look at what happened to the Phillies. Maybe they retool. Trade Ranger, Alvarado, and Marsh. If they signed Sasaki, Ranger can easily be traded, Hoffman over Alvarado. Just ideas, not advocating those exact moves, but those players bring back some players that help minimize the loss of pics. Maybe you do 1 or 2 of those moves. Something is going to be done. The loss to the Mets is SUPER deflating, and it’s unlikely they woudl win the East again in 25 as is.

          For fun… Now … if it was Amaro….he’d trade Wheeler to restock the farm 🙂

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    2. A lot of truth here. The biggest defeat for a baseball owner is fan indifference.

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89. Regarding JT, it’s been a good contract. Even this year, with 3.0 WAR, he earned his salary. That said, there is no way I would extend a catcher going into his age 34 season. Do you really want ages 35+ at the catcher position?

    Hays adds nothing to the team, in my opinion. I’d rather have Wilson as a 5th outfielder. At least he can run a bit and play multiple positions. It would really help if Crawford could join the team as a competent 4-tool Centerfielder (only missing power) next year. And Stott posting career years in his age 27 and age 28 seasons would help, too.

    On the downside, most likely the team will not get better production in 2025 or 2026 than they did in 2023 from the 30+ year old guys (Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Wheeler, Nola). So some of the other positions need to improve.

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90. Appears if the Phillies could have tossed two shutouts like the Dodgers did to knock out the Padres when they had those big 1-0 leads, they would have advanced as well. Surprising since pitching has been an issue for Dodgers. Just goes to show it is what you do when the chips are on the table. If the Guardians win today that will kind of dispel the bye issue. If you have and odd number like they do really nothing else, you can do. College football is following basically the same model. Top 4 seeds get a bye while the others play.

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    1. Don….Tigers have Skubel going for them…..my money is on the Tigers.

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91. Romus. How much money? LOL Skubel is really good. I hope whoever wins beats the Yankees. That was a big loss by Tigers other night. Now if they win Skubel can only pitch once. Whereas a win and he could have gone game 1 and 5. There was one guy on this site a couple months back at the trade deadline who mentioned not to discount the Tigers. At that time, they were only hanging around the fringes of contention. I believe that person only mentioned the Tigers since they have Max Clark on the horizon maybe not too far in the future. Wonder who that person was. Think if they had kept Flaherty where they might be. Maybe already in ALCS. I actually like watching both teams play. They play the game the way I prefer it to be played. I know that is not how most do today. I get it.

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    1. Im not up on DET, but i thought I believed the players they got in the Flaherty trade helped them on the day to day. I’m probably wrong but I thought they got an everyday player out of it.

       At this point…. Hoping for an NYY/LAD World Series… with LA winning. Let that team get it out of their system, hopefully they lose some of the hunger.

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       1. Flaherty begat … catcher/1b Thayron Liranzo and shortstop Trey Sweeney from the Dodgers. Sweeney has helped the Tigers.

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          1. Good post Romus. I should read farther down.

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       2. Tac. I believe you are correct. I think the shortstop came in the trade. Think his name is Sweeney. But Hoosier Matt plays everywhere so I am not positive on that. He was at 1B the other night.

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    2. Don….Painter later this afternoon in the Arizona desert. Jim has the link to live stream it on the other thread.

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       1. Romus. What time? My niece is getting a semi to take to people next week in NC from the hurricane. I took a pickup load to them yesterday and working on more today. We have lots of nice stuff that I am sure some can use. So just trying to help. I may be able to get it on one of my many options. Who knows.

          I forgot to mention this yesterday. Last year after the NLDS I got a Phillies hat with the big P and October on the front. Kind of cool. It came out last weekend, but it is back in the hat rack for at least another year. So disappointing. But I can possibly see more in the future unless changes are made, and I am not sure where the changes come at this time.

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          1. 530PM…EST –game time…streaming starts a little earlier but there is no audio until the game actually starts.

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92. Romus. Just seeing on ESPN that Skubal was a 9th round pick. Gems can be found anywhere. I am not a betting person. So, line is Tigers are -120, Guardians even. Guess Tigers are favored.

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    1. Yes….Tigers slight favorite

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    2. …….. it’s back, back, …… gone! 😐

       Happens to the best …….. and playoff’s are so unpredictable, a strange game indeed.

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       1. Yep. But Clase has to get 6 outs now. He has given up 4 runs in 2 innings. only 5 all season.

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93. Romus. Just seeing on MLB Network why Yankees move on and why Phillies are gone on your yacht. Yankees BP 0 runs allowed in 4 games. Believe Phillies BP was only 16 runs allowed. One is a winning formula. The other is a losing formula.

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    1. Yep…throw in also the hitters fell asleep and that is all she wrote….12 runs vs Mets’ 23 runs.

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94. who is/was more hyped…

    Cole Hamels or Andrew Painter?

    Trying to remember the excitement level for Hamels vs Painter

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    1. I would say Painter.

       We didn’t have the interest in nor coverage of the minor leagues back when Hamels was drafted.

       James didn’t start PP until 2007, I think. Hamels made his Phillies debut in May of 2006.

       Just an arbitrary opinion.

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       1. Pre-PP, i was pretty hyped for Gavin Floyd & Hamels. I’d agree though… I don’t think Hamels got the type of attention/hype Painter has gotten. Different times, but I’d still say Painter would get more if they had come up at the same time.

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       2. Jim. I agree for same reasons with Painter.

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95. Romus. Skubal is so good. He just overcame a two-base error by LF Riley Green. Simply blew Fry away with a 100-mph fastball. Guardians are now into their vaunted BP in the 3rd inning.

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96. Sorry. I had almost completed a longer comment with info when I fat fingered a spot on my phone screen and lost it.

    Short version. Remember the Phillies value options among their depth players.

    Then spent the last option on several players this season. Among them were Allard, Clemens, Kennedy, Marchan, Phillips, Marte, Castro.

    I don’t want to Wade into the Marchan/Stubbs discussion here. But, since the Phillies will want to appear to be addressing their NLDS failure, the guys who aren’t on LTCs are the guys they can move and are susceptible to trades and non-tenders.

    So, Stubbs, Sosa, Stott, Marsh, Rojas, Hays, Bohm, Suarez, Sanchez among others become fodder for rumors and fact regarding off-season trades and non-tenders.

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    1. Sanchez and Stott are the only two that I would be hesitant about moving. I believe Stott is going to pull out of his bad year offensively) and Sanchez has exhibited ability to be a consistent regular. Understand, if the right deal comes along, nothing is sacred.

       The others are just ballers. Weary of watching Bohm pout and pound his helmet into the ground and looking like he might cry. Ranger, I never quite felt that the 1/2 anointing was justified. If he becomes special I’ll admit I was wrong, but I suspect he’ll be an average major league pitcher at most …… that is if his back holds out.

       Sosa, I don’t care for his glove that much (inconsistent) and I’m convinced he guesses at pitches.

       They are backups for the most part …….. there always will be more backups available …. the problems ……. the LF of IF & OF.

       DD, you made part of this by shackling us to them …… work your stuff ….. just don’t finance the next ones for 10 years.

       Really glad you made it though the carnage, Jim, hope things get back to normal (good times, not more storms)!

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97. oldruff. It appears the Phillies had the wrong former Nat swinging. Thomas on GS today.

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98. oldruff. David Fry and Lane Thomas came up big for Guardians. Go ahead HRS and a dribbler today by Fry that made it all possible. He put the ball in play instead of a strikeout. Totally changed the game. Skubal lost focus for one pitch after HBP, and it cost them big. He had gone 28.2 scoreless innings. I would take him any day.

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    1. The question is would you take Tom Allen today ……. I’ll sweeten the deal, 5 pieces of Double Bubble I found in the pigeon loft along with a Granny Hamner baseball card that was in the nest …….. that’s the very best I can do!

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       1. I have that game on right now. Bama barely survived. LEO can stay with Franklin. Minny beat USC last week. Cig and IU are 6-0. IU might get close to the top 12 this week with some upsets and their bye.

          You bring up a bad memory. I had a couple shoe boxes of those Double Bubble baseball cards. The Mantle’s, Aaron’s, William’s, May’s, etc. I had them all. Then I went to South Alabama. Then I got married in 73. My baseball cards stayed at my home, and I forgot about them till it was too late and someone took them or threw them away. I took really good care of them. They would be valuable today. I think we got like 5 cards in a pack.

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          1. I feel your pain, Mom jettizoned mine when I was in the Army ……. had two dresser drawers f💲🤑💰

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    2. Hoosier Don – you asked several days ago who is this guy David Fry ? I mentioned then that he is a 5 star player – not that his metrics say that – but he is a gamer – a tough out who puts the ball in play and does what is necessary to win games. Romus backed that up with his metrics. Regardless, he is a winning player – a smart gritty player. It is no wonder he did something that determined the game’s outcome. He seems to do that often.

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99. RU. I was kidding Romus and oldruff. I have seen Fry play frequently. He is a very good player. It will not show but he had the most important at bat yesterday. With runners on 1st and 2nd and one out on a two-strike pitch he barely made contact on the end of the bat but hit a dribbler between 1st and 2nd and beat it out to load the bases. Then Skubal hit Ramirez to tie the game and for a brief second lost his composure and Lane Thomas hit the first pitch for a grand slam. Without the hit by Fry maybe none of that happens. I agree he is good.

    oldruff. At least you know what happened to your cards. I am not sure. LEO came through for you in the 2nd half yesterday. 33-30 win in 0T. Lions will be up to 3 this week. I had to leave so I did not see the 2nd half.

    One last thing. Some spoke of the unfairness for the bye teams in the playoffs. Well 3 of the 4 advanced to the next round. Only the Phillies who were playing the worst going into the playoffs failed to advance. With that said if the BP could have been like a couple of the others who did advance and held onto those precarious 1-0 leads, they would be playing tonight in LA. Hitters failed. BP failed even worse this time around.

    Now we wait for 2025

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100. Lane Thomas hit homers in two games against Detroit, including a grand slam yesterday, playing a huge role for the Guardians’ series victory. After a rough August, he was a excellent in September. They traded 3 prospects for him. Should the Phillies have done so? Hindsight, I know, but….

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     1. Naaa…. Better move imho is to move Turner off SS, given the FA options. They need to hoard prospects & buy upgrades in FA. The keys are to draft well & not give out untraceable contracts. Easier said than done, but when you have a generational player + open commitment to winning… that’s what you do. Retool vs Rebuilding.

        Unfortunately, the FA doesn’t have obvious answers. In hindsight… if Middleton was going to spend all this money… maybe he should’ve gotten both Harper & Machado.

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        1. Turner will need to agree to any move off shortstop…..of course he must realize he is not as good a shortstop anymore as he was years ago. But once, if he is moved, there is a hole at shortstop now. So you have to plug that.

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           1. Musical chairs. Stott to SS. Then someone else to 2B.

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              1. true, but once you get your money & you’re tied to a team like he is…. Hard to imagine he wouldn’t when push came to shove. My two cents.

                 Adames looks intriguing so far, as Soto is asking 701 million lol I hope he does the same as that dude in LA, if he’s going to sign with the Phillies.

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           2. His contract has a long ways to go, surely when you negotiate a contact for 10 years with a player, you would factor-in some positional flexibility for the team. I’m sure they could/would work it out.

              At age 31, he is, like you said, already displaying a loss of surehandedness necessary for a ss, but I think he could handle the outfield better than some of the “stiffs” we’ve had at that position in our past. I don’t know about you, but personally, IMO some of his ball handling skills and throwing errors are just poor execution of fundamentals.

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              1. Skeet…I think he will eventually go out there…put him in LF…with Crawford in center.

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                 1. 👍

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101. I am not sure when Jim will be able to put a new discussion up due to hurricane. So, I will toss this out and if he is able, I will add to new one.

     My question to anyone is what happened to the pre-all-star break Phillies.? At one point they were like 30 games over 500. Like 25 or so at the break. But as Jim mentioned they limped to a 33-33 record the second half. So, include the division series they finished the last 70 games 34-36. I have a couple thoughts I will share in more detail a bit later but thought some might have thoughts.

     I think 2 areas became exposed and taken advantage of by the opponents. Then those 2 areas seemed to get it back together for a brief time before falling back again. Those 2 were a complete disaster in the Mets series in the division round. The 3rd area which we have spoken of forever was the disaster performance of the 5th starter spot. Every 5th day became almost a sure loss.

     Romus. I am sure you can give the pre and post all-star break info. The media guys throw stuff out all the time now on these things. The question now is where the Phillies go from here.

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     1. Simplest explanation is that the starting pitching was much worse in the 2nd half of the season. Started ERA went from 3.22 to 4.74. Much of that was the 5th starter but also Ranger’s back issues in the 2nd half.

        Bullpen was slightly worse overall but not that significant.

        Offensively, they were pretty consistent month-to-month except that their BB numbers dropped the last couple of months so either opposing pitchers had better control or they started to chase more. But even if they were chasing more, their OPS didn’t suffer.

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102. Who was the recently retired KC player who started out as a third baseman and went to LF and became a gold glover 4 or 5 times? I can see Turner doing that. Come on, who’s got his name?

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     1. Alex Gordon.

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        1. Thank you, DK.

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103. more random thoughts as we watch LAD smack the mutts around

     DD had a nice plan in place, imo. Rojas & Marsh in CF with Merrifield in LF. Stott’s progression, with a settled in Turner is what the offense was supposed to look like, that would keep the lineup turning over. Merrifield was supposed to be much better than he was. That crapping out really hurt. Then it was compounded by Stott losing his ability to work counts, and have long pesky at bats. He was the man in MLB for 2 strike hits. You could count on him to duel the pitcher in prior years. Merrifield was somewhat similar. Add Turner Schwarber and Harper into those working the count. I think that was the plan to combat the 2022 NLCS fallout.

     Lastly, a few years back I wanted Marcus semien for his Total bases stats. I hope they can find some players like that this year. Less SO and more players on base (durr) seems to be the remedy

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104. Senga’s control for the Mets was way off last night opposed to when he pitched game one versus the Phillies. However, the ones that he was throwing close to the plate, the Dodgers didn’t chase unlike our boys did.

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     1. Heard a report Phillies swung outside of the zone over 35% of the time….in that regards, among league leaders in chasing….Casty probably skews those numbers.

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        1. ROMUS……. I don’t have a difficult time believing that statistic at all. If you are giving out walks, this is a very hard team to give one too. I don’t remember which playoff game it was, but we insisted on hacking away when the offerings were all outside the box.

           Please assure me that this won’t turn out to be a subway World Series in NYC …….. please …… please …… guts can’t take it!

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105. Dombrowski on Painter:

     “I do think he’ll be pitching at the big league level at some point in ‘25,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said earlier this week. “He’s not going to be able to go out there like a big league starter and pitch every five or six days and pitch a whole season and have 180 innings. He’s going to be limited, much more than that. So how do we do that? Do we start pitching him in games later? Do we start pitching him at the Minor Leagues once a week and limit the innings? Could he pitch here? Yes, but it also depends how he does.”

     https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-andrew-painter-pitches-for-first-time-in-a-year?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

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106. This tweet made me think about Hinkie. I hope he is well and just taking a break. I miss his posts.

     https://x.com/PeterGFlaherty/status/1845636435438669897

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     1. Amen to that. I’ve been thinking about Hinkie every time I watch the Guardians’ Steven Kwan, a player Hinkie thought we should get before he even set foot in the majors. Wow, was he right about Kwan!

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        1. He was!!

           Sadly, as time goes by, I am beginning to think perhaps that things are not well with Hinkie (to put it mildly). There are nice things about being fairly anonymous here, but not being able to find out what happened to one of our most valued contributors is a serious downside.

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           1. Agree with all of you. I miss Hinkie.

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              1. Last reply was on Yamamoto I believe in January from Hinkie. Ironic post below speaks of Yamamoto.

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107. The event that’s gone under the radar is the Phils’ failed effort to sign Yamamoto last off-season. They reportedly offered Yamamoto, then 25, $325 M on a 12 year deal. That offer failed and the Phils made a play for Garrett Crochet at this year’s trade deadline.

     I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phils tried to sign a starting pitcher like Roki Sasaki on a long term deal this off-season. For all the money the Dodgers have put into starting pitching , the Dodgers were back in the market for Flaherty at the trade deadline. Even now, the Dodgers with their hefty payroll are playing BP games in the playoffs. A cautionary tale for other teams. Can’t have too many starters.

     The bullpen could be the first area addressed by the Phils. If Hoffman’s price is affordable, he’ll get re-signed. Otherwise they need to move quickly for perhaps a Tanner Scott/Estevez combo. That becomes a lefty heavy BP.

     For LF, it’s Santander/Tyler O’Neill or Profar for me. For those saying where will the money come from, my response is “the same place the Yamamoto money would have come from.”

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     1. If a player doesn’t want to come here, he doesn’t want to come here. You can’t make the overpay so severe in those situations that it sets you back should it fail.

        And more often than not those deals don’t pan out over the entire length.

        The team as it stood was capable it just didn’t click when it needed to. Nobody’s fault IMO it happens.

        The fault though will be if they don’t change directions for next season. A major shake-up of sorts is needed. I’d like to see it in the FO and then a young player or two plus JT moved.

        Some form of creativity is required. There are always deals to be had if you have the right people in place to make a transition.

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        1. I want to clarify when I say young player or two that those should be from the 26 man not from the minors…

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        2. DMAR….listening to Dombrowski and Thomson this afternoon one thing that they both mentioned on more than one occasion, is the line-up construction for next season….they will look to improve it.

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           1. I never liked Kyle in the LO role but this season it worked to some degree as he produced a 368 OBP. That just didn’t materialize in the playoffs. He only slashed 167/318/707 OPS.

              To boot he isn’t what you would call a well rounded hitter.

              If they run the same players out there again just in different spots in the LU I won’t expect different result.

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108. In case it’s needed, I wanted to clarify my point that the Phils seemed prepared to spend more than they actually did last off-season.

     Very similar conditions pertain now so I won’t be surprised if the Phils make maybe 2 big additions this off-season. Maybe not a huge amount of roster churning but noticeable changes. Baseball’s not a hard cap sport and Middleton wants to win now.

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     1. 110% agreed.
        IMHO – The Free agent period has become Phillies Season. This is where the team improves itself. They can’t trade high ranking prospects away at the deadline, or they will end up like the 2012-2017 Phillies. Phils can afford a few bad contracts if they have young prospect coming up who produce. Middleton doesnt care whos getting paid what, as long as they are winning. You can cost average the bad contract of Walker out with a Painter. Not ideal, but to me, this is what they haven’ t made the big trade at the deadline. They need to keep the prospects to plug or … or at least need to have a bigger stock pile of the good ones.

        Middleton with spend in FA, & Hoard the team prospects. Thats the long game imo, that keeps the team competitive for Harper.

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109. MLB announced the finalists for the Gold Glove Awards in both the AL and NL. Three players at every position were named finalists in each respective league. Four Phillies cracked the list:

     Zack Wheeler: Chris Sale, Luis Severino 

     Bryce Harper: ….Matt Olson , Christian Walker

     Bryson Stott: Ketel Marte , Brice Turang

     Brandon Marsh: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Ian Happ 

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110. Topper and entire staff rehired for 2025 per DD. DD also says need to always improve the team and they will look to do that in offseason.

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     1. JM wants to win I believe that but I also believe (the cynic in me) that he is most interested in having a packed house every night and a team that puts on a really good show.

        These players will do that but its definitely a risk averse plan and that in a way turns me off.

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        1. DMAR….think Trader Dave D/ dons his trading hat again this off-season….”We have to be open minded to exploring what’s out there for us, talk to some clubs and see what’s happening. That process hasn’t started, sometimes you trade good players for good players.”

           …….I just hope Crawford, Painter, Tait and Miller are not part of any trade.

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           1. Well yeah and that is what I am most concerned with….

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           2. It was reported that the Phillies and Dodgers both made very strong offers to White Sox for Garrett Crochet. At the trade deadline. You have to believe they may do so again. It was only reported that Painter was not offered.

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           3. Gotta feeling there will be some movement this year from the way DD spoke. Hope also, we don’t part with talent we might need in the short term at positions where we are currently weak. Interesting pressers with Thomson and DD today.

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              1. Skeet…..IMO, he may move Bohm

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                 1. I can see that possibility, I detect that Alec’s charades might be wearing a little thin. Well, it should keep us amused thru spring, huh?

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                 2. Oh yeah…amused is way of describing it…..but if he ends up trading one of our prized prospects in any trade…amusing turns to something else.

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                 3. …….. that would be consternation! 😉😡

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111. You know what gets exhausting with DD? Whenever he covets a player, whether its through FA or a trade, he almost always pays a massive premium. Over time, that adds up through payroll inflexibility or lack of internal options. And when you add to that the fact that his talent evaluation is often highly questionable and their farm system is fairly average, you get an expensive team with some serious flaws that are difficult to fix.

     But, friends, he ain’t going anywhere for a while, so you get better hope he figures this out.

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     1. Yeah…..one exec said…all GMs like it when Dave D calls to make a trade for one of their players. So all the Philly fans just wait and see what he does this off-season. I am sure rumors will be floating all around.

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     2. Leopards generally don’t change their spots so if DD buries this franchise like he did the Tigers and Boston it will be Middleton’s fault.

        Before John took over you had this weird blend of owners and Dallas Green and other cohorts that would convolute the process and make the GM the face of it all.

        Today its much more linear than it was back then.

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        1. DD isn’t perfect, but he didn’t bury the Red Sox. He was fired while they had a winning record, and they’ve only posted one winning season since then. And it’s not because he left them bereft of talent. They had a young, talented core (Bogaerts, Betts, Benintendi, Devers, and Eduardo Rodriguez were all 26 or under), and none of their veterans were above the age of 33.

           And it’s also not like he razed the farm to the ground, either. Otherwise the current team wouldn’t be building around four players that were drafted under his watch (Duran, Houck, Bello, Crawford).

           The Red Sox suffered from cheap owner syndrome.

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           1. I’m not sure its fair to say Red Sox ownership got cheap. I’d say they got smart. DD gave David Price $217 million; Sale extended for $160 million and more recently they extended Devers for $331 million.

              They also saw their 2019 1st rnd pick getting dropped 10 spots for being $40 million over the tax threshold which they used on Cam Cammeron.

              But you’re right those were some pretty good picks including Casas and they do appear to be on the road back. They caught some teams by surprise and made it to the ALCS in 21 losing 4-2 to the Astros.

              I’m sure the reason he got fired or they decided to part ways had a lot to do with where ownership wanted to go from there. They had just won the WS in 18 got bounced in 19 and then had Betts and Bogearts to deal with.

              If I had a guess Betts wasn’t signing for any number and wanted out or to go to the open market so maybe Henry had a decision to make. Which in retrospect was to try and maximize value for Betts and get out from under as much money as possible so they could reset sooner rather than later.

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              1. The owner doesn’t get credit for being willing to pay Price’s contract when Price was part of the Betts deal specifically because he didn’t want to pay it.

                 It’s also an open secret that the owner was the one that forced the trade. Betts wanted market value, but the owner wasn’t willing to pay that. So Betts was shipped off to the highest bidder, who then also extended him 5 months later.

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112. As TAC pointed out with his money math, the Phillies are making plenty of money hand over fist. He basically computed that the team (including parking and concessions) would be pulling in close to $425 million which is plenty to pay the bills.

     The management wants to win but more than anything they want an entertaining lovable team that puts fannies in the seats. It could turn into a Cubs thing where people go to the game no matter what just to say they were there.

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     1. No, this isn’t Chicago. If the Phillies are bad or mediocre attendance will wane. Fans here are smart and demand more.

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113. I really don’t know his stats. But watching Soto hit, is really something. So patient in the at bats, that I have seen..

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     1. rocco…….Yankees have to make a decision with him in a few weeks…..pay him as much as their clubs franchise’s face , Judge, or pay him a ‘dollar less’. He may want equal salary to Judge-AAV- or more based on his youthfulness. I would think Judge would not care if he gets paid more….he just wants to keep winning. But heard that across town Mets’ Steve Cohen may break the bank on Soto also. …along with the Giants out West. Will be interesting to see what happens when the bidding begins.

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        1. You never know when a surging team is just experiencing a lot of luck or if the gains are permanent, but we should be very concerned about the Mets. They could win the WS this year, during a rebuilding year – think about that. Yes, their GM got somewhat lucky, but when a lot of moves go well, that suggests very good talent evaluation and planning. And now they are going to add a bunch of big FA contracts on top of that. This division is going to be like what the AL East was for many decades. The Mets and the Braves could be a permanent handful and a lot of years, we may be lucky to get a WC spot – not that there’s anything wrong with that.

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           1. I don’t think the Braves can or will ever spend like the Mets and Phillies. Alex is a really good GM and in some ways he kind of got lucky with Acuna and Albies.

              And maybe luck isn’t a fair word to use because they do seem to scout very well and graduate talent from their minors to the big club.

              Strider of course, Riley and Harris and then Alex executes fairly well in trades and the off tier FA market.

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              1. Strangely, the one thing the Braves fail at….is keeping their young pitchers healthy. Seems they flash hot when they come up, and then the flame is doused with a debilitating injury.

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              2. The Brave’s payroll was 6th in MLB in 2024. Just slightly behind the Phillies.

                 They are willing to spend.

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                 1. What is interesting about the Braves payroll projected 2025 is they don’t have a single player making more than $22 million. And while they have $216 million allocated at the moment $38.25 million of that is in club options. I doubt they pick up Ozuna but we’ll see.

                    The Mets 2025 also very interesting Lindor will get $34 million then they don’t have another player making more than $20. Sitting right now at $141 million total.

                    Manaea is a lock to opt out out of his $13.5 million too. Hard to see them not landing Soto and if Snell opts out of his deal they will be major players for him too.

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                 2. 3up….the Braves do have a high payroll, but when it comes to free agent signings of LTCs….nix. They tend to sign their own to LTCs when they are young, but as for free agents their best were like one or two year deals….Donaldson, Ozuna, Charlie Morton. They seem to shy away from anything longer than two years. back n the 90s they did sign greg Maddox to a LTC,,,,but that may have been during the Ted Turner ownershio days.

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                 3. I don’t think the Yankees traded Soto to rent him. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t sign there. He and Judge could make up one of the greatest hitting long-running tandems in MLB history and are off to a great start. I’d have to look back, but other than Ruth and Gehrig, they would be hard to equal. And, yes, they are better than Maris/Mantle (because Soto is much better as a hitter than Maris, 1961 notwithstanding) and as good as Mays/McCovey and Aaron/Matthews. https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-juan-soto-an-all-time-great-hitting-duo#:~:text=In%20baseball%20history%2C%20there%20are,Mays%2DMcCovey..

                    Rarified air.

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                 4. DMAR…..Polar Bear will be a topic for a return to Gotham in the next few months….and he will be a $25M plus guy. Perhaps Soto to the Mets and Alonso to the Yankees.

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           2. They Mets aren’t a surging team. They caught lightning in a bottle for half of 2024. Who are their long-term, young stars they are going to build around? Vientos and maybe Alvarez are their regulars under 30. Their entire starting rotation are FA’s except for Senga.

              They are dangerous only in that they have an owner willing to spend $$$ but they are not a team on the rise.

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              1. Yeah, well, they have some good youth, they are well-rounded and they have a brilliant young GM and Steve Cohen’s wallet. My prediction is they are going to be handful most years. And the Braves, please, they are always good, they lost two superstars and still made the playoffs. Like they used to say about the Yankees – they don’t rebuild, they reload. They are not going anywhere either.

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        2. My vote is on Yanks. Especially if they win it all.

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114. on Soto… There will be competition, but the I think the Phillies will be involved. I won’t be expecting it, as im not sure how the Yankees would let him go, but… I believe the Philles could sign him. Here is why.

     Their rotation is looking good, and have 2 low cost options for while in Sanchez & the expected arrival of Painter.

     Soto is expected to ask for 701 million over 12 years. I maybe wrong on the years but …

     if they were to sign Yamamoto last year… 12/325mil thats 27mil per year. Schwarber has 20 mil coming off after next year. Thats a suitable replacement imo for the offense. We are up to 47mil. 700mil over 12 years is 58mil.. so they are 11mil off. Phils signed merrified to 7mil, and hes gone. I guess technically replaced by Hayes. Easily dumbale if you sign Soto. Thats a 5 mil gap. Dump Sosa for Clemens and it’s basically there. There are other ways to do it, but im just trying to show you that 700 mil might not sound as crazy as we all think. It’s crazy, super crazy.. but the Phillies are one of the few teams who could do it.

     Soto is a generational player with a track record. If you liked Yamamoto… im sure JM wouldn;t say no to Soto. Plus… it keeps him off the Mets & pisses the Nats off.

     All im saying is… don’t discount it

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115. I made a long post on how the Phillies could afford Soto, a lot more possible than you’d think. Anyways – apologies for the double/triple posts.

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116. Thinking about it more… Phillies need to sign Soto. He really fits their timeline, very well in terms of contracts falling off,and the when expected new farmhands will need to be paid.

     If Soto gets out of Yankees, he’s Philly bound imo. JM going to make a run. Idk what they are telling the public.

     You want the fans psychie to recover from the early playoffs exit. It’s Soto, and oddly enough they can afford his 12/701m asking price.

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     1. Just saw article saying Phillies are out on Soto. So maybe that means they are in.

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117. Concerning Soto and the Yankees: They are paying him $31M this year. After the season, they will let a few guys hit the bricks. Rizzo is making $17M ($6M buyout). Torres is getting $14M, Verdugo is around $9M, and both Kanhle and Grissom are about $6M each.

     Counting Soto’s $31M, that’s $78M right there to pay off Soto’s first year and part of his second year. Next year they end LeMahieu’s contract worth $15M and possibly Stroman’s worth $18M. That would help pay Soto’s second half of year two and some of year three.

     The Yankees have plenty of guys in their system who will easily replace all those whose contracts are coming off of the books. They want to keep Soto because he’s a fan favorite and he’s a great player, and especially if he helps them win a World Series. Soto is NOT leaving the Yanks.

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     1. All good points, but I still think Phils will be in it, not saying it’s a shoe in,but they will be listening to the Phillies offers. One of the final suitors. Soto and Harper went to the SB together last year. Will see, but I agree Soto is likely to be back with Yanks. I think Sasaki or Soto is Philly bound with them having to fight off NYY,NYM,and SF.

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        1. Tac3………your optimism is refreshing for a cynic like myself.

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           1. HA! Happy to uplift. In fairness…I’ve only seen 1 WS title in my 38 years of fandom… sounds like you’ve seen 2! I was a few months old when Phillies won their 1st, doesn’t count for me. Started watching when I was 6.

              I made a long post about Soto, that got sucked into the abyss,it explained how Phils can pretty easily afford Soto. Now, doesn’t mean they’ll get him. That said… don’t expect NYC to be an automatic…. Like… if you have hate traffic… lol You gonna signup for 12 years of it? If you like to run outdoors to train.. you gonna love stopping at all those street ligthts? If you like driving your sports cars… trucks off roading etc… yeah.. NYC is not the place. It’s cool for a bit imo, but eventually … 💩 gets old. ESPECIALLY if you’re already married. Apparently he is not, BUT supposedly he is pretty private.. which is another indicator he may not like NYC. Usually you’re not trying to hide that info if youre a big city person. it’s all speculation… but NYC is not for everyone. Like… it will suck the life out of you if it aint for you. 700 mil or not. We will see… it give it a 40% chance of happening. … Machado/Harper dance part II

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     2. Agree

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        1. Ha! In fairness, I’ve only witnessed 1 WS Championship in my 38 yr fandom. Born in 80’, and I was really coherent. I started watching in 86, 1st game was Schmidt retirement night. Braves crushed’em. Pretty sure they had Gant on that team.

           Anyways, I lost a few posts to the abyss that broke down how Soto is “affordable” to the Phils

           some more mojo – Don’t discredit that NYC isn’t for everyone. For instance, Soto is apparently a pretty private person. At least with his relationships. He’s not married and no one knows his GF. That does t seem like a person who wants to be in NYC for 12’years. Plus the traffic, can’t let your sports car rip, if you like to exercise outside/run… NYC sucks for all that. Philly is a good hybrid. Maybe he has a jealous GF that would rather him in Philly around his married friends 😂 again not saying it’s a definite but it’s not a zero chance either

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118. Frequent reader, infrequent commentor here..

     I was reading the Athletic over the weekend, and I saw an article on Gunnar Henderson. The article contained the following: “The Phillies, who told Henderson they would take him at No. 14 if college shortstop Bryson Stott wasn’t available, got their top choice.”

     It’s interesting to think about the ‘what-ifs’ related to such a statement. Would Turner be a Phillie? Image a cost-effective bat like Henderson in the middle of the lineup..

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     1. you can probably thank Harper for that one 🙂

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119. Wes. Draft picks are so hard in baseball. So many factors. Skubal was a 9th round pick.

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120. New discussion at

     Phillies Discussion, 10/16/24 | Phuture Phillies

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