202 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion, 7/8/24”

1. Merrifield is likely the best base stealer on the team. Not that I remember him being used this way but as the lead off extra inning base runner he may be almost guaranteed to score. That is worth something, isn’t it?

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   1. Well, 1) he really isn’t. Both Stott and Trea are definitely better, and Rojas and Stubbs are probably better. Rojas has been caught 2 more times, but he’s much faster. Whereas Stubbs hasn’t been caught yet, but has had fewer opportunities.

      But 2) if it were true, it’d be worth a trivia answer. Think about how often we play an extra inning game. It’s been 12 out of our 90 games played so far this year.

      Now in those 12 games, how often has the runner been someone that it’s even worth considering replacing? Keep in mind, roughly half of the time we’ll still need to play defense. And also keep in mind, there’s still the chance that we’ll need to bat AGAIN. So are you really okay with losing one of our starters for a marginal increase in base running?

      Having a good pinch runner on the bench does have some value. But it’s minuscule. And it’s basically non-existent on this team, because Thomson simply does not replace his guys, and the people it’d be most worth running for (Castellanos) are his guys.

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   2. He’s not. Stott and Turner are both definitely better, and Rojas and Stubbs are both probably better.

      Also, being a good pinch runner has value. But it’s a minuscule amount. And it’s basically zero on this team because Thomson simply will not replace his guys (Castellanos).

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      1. If I had to pick who was the best, in my eyes it would be Turner. The guy who should be much better than he is at it is Rojas. His abilities to swipe bases are a credit to his speed, not his technique.

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         1. You’re right that Turner is the best. He’s historically good. I honestly wonder if people forgot he was caught a grand total of ZERO times last year. But even over his whole career, he’s got a success rate over 86%. And that’s only been getting better.

            But Stott is also unbelievably underrated. He’s 64-for-73 in his career (just under 88%). And he stole 31 bags last year and is already at 21 this year, so it’s not like he’s being super conservative.

            As for Rojas, I think you’re being a little too hard on him. He’s still young, and young speedsters tend to take a few years to really settle into their base-stealing rhythm in the majors. But even though he’s been caught 3 times already this year, he’s still 30-for-34 in his MLB career (just over 88%). We’ll have to wait to see where he settles in, but currently he’s been pretty excellent.

            (Merrifield has a career success rate of just under 80%, by the way)

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   3. I was a fan of the Merrifield signing when it happened but at this point, he’s proven to provide little value to the team and they should be looking for an upgrade

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   4. I’m not sure that the Phillies signed Merrifield to an $8M contract thinking that, if nothing else, he has value as a base stealer.

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2. I think Dahl and Pache are the first 2 to go. Dahl maybe today since Rucker has to be added to the 40 man.

   Does the community here feel the Phillies will add a closer or another middle reliever to the pen? I think Rob likes Alvarado and Hoffman in that role.

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   1. I don’t think there’s an available closer better than anything we’ve got in-house. But if we were to look for a bullpen addition to bolster our depth, I’d go off the beaten path; give Cleveland a call.

      Now Cleveland are obviously not sellers. But they ARE desperate for SP, and they happen to have a glut of excellent relievers. I wouldn’t bother targeting Clase. But I would absolutely ask about Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith. Tim Herrin and Sam Hentges are also having very good years. So I’d want to see how much one of our depth starters is worth to them.

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      1. I think Tanner Scott is better than Alvarado, but there’s going to a bidding war for his services. Miami is going to get a surprising haul for him.

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         1. Scott has had the better results, but he’s a major regression candidate. He walks WAY too many people. He walks more people than Soto.

            Plus he’s benefiting from unsustainably low BABIP (.184 vs. career .314), HR% (7.1% vs career 12.9%), and high LOB% (81.2% vs career 73%).

            He’s striking out fewer batters than at any point in his career, walking more batters than anyone in our ‘pen currently, and is getting lucky on balls in play. Plus he’s a pure rental. If the Fish get a haul for him, I BEG that it’s from anyone else but us.

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            1. DanK…..doubt the Marlins get more than two prospects for Scott…one top tier and another 10-15 range from another teams’ prospect list. Rental relievers just seem to get the least in quantity in return. Then again, if the Marlins should happen deal with the Padres and AJ Preller they could hit the jackpot.

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            2. Remember when the Phillies gave up Ben Brown for David Robertson? I suspect the Marlins will ask for Aldegheri.

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               1. Situations are a lot different. Phillies bullpen was reeling and desperately needed help when they made the trade for Robertson.

                  This year’s bullpen is in much better shape but could stand to add another late-inning option. The need is not a pronounced.

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3. Boy…like to see JoJo return…just not sure the Cards in the selling mode over the next few weeks. They are closing in on the Brewers having won 12 of their last 17 games.

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4. Romus. I agree on the Cards. They are playing some of the best. Believe dealing days are gone with them. Dahl looked good at first but has been awful recently. Mostly Ks it seems. Pache is what he is. A very good defender with almost no offense. I agree it seems he has lots of confidence in Hoffman and Alvarado. They have been really good. I am just not sure in game 7 or season on the line I have total trust in either of them. But the options seem to be really small to add the reliable closer. Think Romus was right that Hellsley was at first maybe the best option. But that ship has sailed. We both like Miller with the A’s but he really would be in a similar situation to Alvarado and Hoffman. Actually, less in that playoff role. Guess we will find out soon.

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5. Just seeing Phillies being mentioned with Rooker on A’s. Good hitter/poor defender. Maybe they will want Pache back.

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   1. I like Brent Rooker for this team but people are out of their minds with respect to how much he will cost. He is not young and he’s not a star. He’s 29 with lifetime 3.5 WAR. This is his first season as a well above average player. He will not cost the ridiculous amounts that people are suggesting. I think he might cost something like Crawford/Aldegheri, a useful mid-level prospect (Rincon?) and a lottery ticket. This team needs a righty power bat more than it needs another reliever, so that’s what I think they will do. However, if they can’t get the righty power bat, then, yes, it’s possible they will get a reliever. Also, don’t discount the possibility that the team will do what they did with O’Hoppe. Trade an excellent prospect for another younger player or high level prospect they feel has potential. Honestly, the Marsh for O’Hoppe trade (which I ripped at the time – and I was wrong!), is one of those rare trades where both teams did great and it gave the Phillies a good young player, at a position of need with team control. And, no, Marsh isn’t going anywhere. I know he has terrible platoon splits and that’s an issue – but even with that he is a 3-4 WAR player (a near first division regular and elite platoon player at worst) with even more growth potential.

      By the way, saw the videos of Caba and Tait.

      On Caba – WOW – this guy is not a little middle infielder chopping at the ball like Cesar Hernandez – he has one hell of a swing and if he gets stronger – my God, the potential is amazing and the fielding is supposedly elite.

      On Tait – does he look like a 17 year-old high schooler to you? Damn, he’s a big strong man. The only thing is where is he going to play? Our organization is full of catchers, especially at the lower level. But the bat is impressive. My guess is that he’s going to be with the Clearwater team in the next few weeks and then we’ll really start to see what we have in him. It wouldn’t surprise me if Caba was promoted too.

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   2. Why trade for Pache when you can pick him up off waivers in the near future? Absolutely nobody is trading for Pache.

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6. There are several minor leaguers I don’t want traded but especially Tait/Crawford/Miller in whatever order you want to list them.

   The Phillies may have their next catcher starting in his early 20’s, their next CF starting in his early 20’s and their next SS/3B starting in his early 20’s. There isn’t an organization in baseball that wouldn’t want to be in that position.

   As I post every year at this time when people want to trade away the farm, the Phillies aren’t folding after 2024, they’re not moving to Albuquerque after 2024 and MLB will be around long after 2024. Don’t jeopardize what could be a very bright future for short term gain, or worse, fools gold.

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   1. https://x.com/BlueClaws/status/1810690489248895167?t=IwW8nuSK9j6RY-E5Q9PZyQ&s=19

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   2. I agree, NL. There was talk at the beginning of the season that the Phils had a small and shrinking window to win a title. Such thought justified going all-in in ’24 including .pushing all chips to the center of the table. I don’t accept the premise, which is muchshakier of late. Ranger Suarez is proving 2023was no fluke. Christopher Sanchez, now extended, has emerged as a high quality starter. The Phils have 7 All Stars, all under team control beyond this season or, in the case of Hoffman, within the Phils’ budget to extend.

      The identification of successor talent is important for a team looking to keep open its window for success beyond this year or the next.

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7. I could be wrong and proven wrong very soon but I think the Phils will try and hold on to Merrifield and will shed other non-performing players first. He made clear when he signed that he came to Philly for a ring. All players play for that but Merrifield is a veteran on the downward path. I think the Phils will figure out a way to keep Merrifield around until September when any roster crunch eases.

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8. https://x.com/PhilsPlayerDev/status/1810412903075361071?t=ONG3_x5hvup3g6LfxLs1wg&s=19

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   1. Saw that. Pretty interesting

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      1. It is interesting. Every so often there are guys with so-so velocity – especially lefties – who can be dominant nonetheless. They need a lot of movement, multiple pitches and pinpoint command. It looks like Graves has a chance to be one of those guys. There’s a lot of Tommy Glavine going on in that video clip, and I do not say that lightly. He’s someone to watch.

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         1. Yup, and there are also guys who can use their “pitchability” to dominate the minors and then when they get to face real hitters it falls apart. Hard to say if hes Glavine, Suarez or Bailey Falter. I would be willing to include him in a deal because I do believe that with very few exceptions, you have to have velo in today’s game.

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            1. Yup – still a lot of risk, but, as I said, also someone to watch.

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         2. See Graves more of a David West type lefty …tall and releases further down the line. Plus he has added more weight than where he was at when drafted, lower body….assume it is muscular.

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9. Yeah I also am a little leery of Tanner Scott’s numbers heading into the 2nd half.

   Carlos Estevez, I think he’ll cost a nice prospect but not as much of an overall return package as Soctt.

   Ward/Rooker/Happ I’d be fine with any of those. Though the former would cost the least.

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10. I have been open about not wanting to sell the pharm for Robert Jr. but here’s the counter argument:
    1. He has a track record of hitting and he is starting to heat up.
    2. He absolutely mashes left handed pitching. Last year he had a .952 OPS vs LHP.
    3. He’s a legit CF and really there are not a lot of good hitting center fielders.
    4. This is his age 26 season so he is just entering his prime years. He could legitimately be a 40+ homer guy for the next 4-6 years.
    5 he is locked up at a cheap contract until 2027.

    So it all comes down to prospect cost.

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    1. The con on Robert…last three and half years….62% availability. Also , I like what you say in all 4 points, but wary of a Byron Buxton return on value in the long run. When he is healthy he is a real productive player.

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       1. Agreed. He doesn’t stay healthy and he strikes out a lot. I could get over the K rate, but the lack of playing every day makes him uninteresting to me.

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11. Okay, everyone needs to calm down about what it would cost to trade for a guy like Brent Rooker. Rooker is 29. He has a CAREER 3.5 WAR. He’s been good this year, but he’s no star. He will cost maybe a top 5-10 prospect, a top 30 prospect and a lottery ticket. The Phillies are not trading Painter, Miller, Tait or Caba for him – not happening. Compare what happened in 2021 when the Dodgers obtained future HOFer Max Scherzer AND near superstar Trea Turner (need I explain how much more valuable the both of them are than Rooker?) for Gerardo Carrillo, Donovan Casey, Kiebert Ruiz and Josiah Gray. Do the Dodgers miss any of those guys? Heck no. So calm down, a Rooker trade may result in perhaps one painful subtraction (MAYBE Crawford or Abel), but it won’t dramatically affect the organization.

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    1. And I agree that Luis Robert is going to cost a bunch more.

       I go back and forth on Robert, but, even in a down year, he is producing at a 4 WAR pace and the fact that he has an affordable contract, plays centerfield (well), feasts on lefties, and is still young, suggests to me he is definitely the type of player that DD is considering. My view is that Painter and Miller are entirely off limits. I think they really don’t want to trade Caba or Tait, but I think one of them would be in that trade as would either Abel or Aldegheri and so would Rojas or Crawford and a lottery ticket.

       That would be a heavy price to pay, but it’s seemed clear to me that this team needs a big right-handed bopper to take the line-up from very good to overwhelming. Add the years of affordable control and this becomes a very interesting trade. Let’s just win it all, okay?

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       1. I mean, think about this line-up – you could spin this a few ways, but it’s right up there with the Orioles and Dodgers – yeah, Robert could be a game changer.

          Schwarber

          Turner

          Harper

          Bohm

          Robert

          Marsh

          Realmuto

          Stott

          Castellanos

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          1. If we get Robert, then here is my lineup:
             1. Turner
             2. Harper
             3. Robert
             4, Schwarber
             5. Bohm
             6. Stott
             7. JT
             8. Castellanos
             9. Marsh.

             Pretty insane. Robert between Harper and Schwarber is insane.

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             1. Interesting line-up which might produce a lot of runs, but I’m looking at the line-up I think Thomson would choose. Frankly, regardless of how foolish it is, I doubt Castellanos slips beyond the 7th spot and the 1-3 are locked in – that’s not going to change.

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       2. And while I was ruminating about a trade, Tait hit his 6th homer, raising his OPS to .902 and Caba is 1-1 with a walk. These are two outstanding prospects. The risk is high and they are far away, but you are talking about two potential stars.

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          1. Tait is an uber prospect. I don’t care what league you are in, he is dominating as a 17 year old. And at catcher, the #1 premium position (other than pitcher). And he didn’t face the competition in Panama that they do in the DR and Venezuela.

             He is now my #2 prospect. Tait/Miller/Crawford could be the Rollins/Utley /Howard of their era.

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             1. Which one is Howard? So we know who to trade before he reaches FA/extension territory.

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       3. To me, Robert is worth a top 5, a top 10,a top 30 and a lottery ticket (if the Phils could choose the top 5 guy they’d lose. If the ChiSox like Rojas, he could replace the top 30 option. I wouldn’t go higher, recognizing that other teams might.

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    2. hes only been a big league regular for 1.5 seasons though. usually when you say “hes 29 with a 3.5 career WAR” you are talking about a guy whos played for 5 or so seasons. Rooker was a late bloomer so i dont really think that stat applies like it would for another 29 year old

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       1. Yes, it completely matters. Late bloomers (especially hitters) tend to have shorter careers and shorter peaks (especially those who do not have elite athleticism). He will cost something, but he won’t command nor should they send a truly elite prospect to get him.

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          1. no disagreement on that fact but its not like his contract goes for 5 years. he should be a solid power right handed bat for the duration of this contract, then they can let him go if regression is feared

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             1. No doubt – I think perhaps his three and a half years of control should be given more of a premium than I allowed for. Still, this is not like trading for Luis Robert – who has an array of near-elite skills.

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                1. Rooker has 3 years of CHEAP control, you’ll have to pay for that with a top prospect.

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12. I was at the Iron Pigs game today. If you need space on the 40 man roster, Max Castillo is a candidate to go. He was awful today, throwing slow junk and clobbered for 7 hits, 7earned runs , 3 home runs in 2 and a third innings. His current era 8.82. Darrick Hall had a 2B, but was 1-5, 3k’s…one with 2 on, one with the bases loaded. Weston Wilson clubbed a long HR and made a very good running catch, crashing into the fence in LF

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    1. Wilson sent being sent back down in mid-June: 82 PA, .303/.432/.727 for a 1.159 OPS, with 15 K and 15 BB. Also, his BABIP is .262, so not luck-driven.

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       1. Not including today’s game, in which he went 2-4, with his 18th HR, 1 BB and 1 K.

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13. Really starting to wonder who Pache has naked pictures of that keeps him in the bigs. I get it- hes a good defensive CF’er. We already have Rojas who offers more at the plate and on the bases. Just dont get the fear of losing him.

    Agree Castillo is a good candidate to drop. So is Luis Ortiz and Freddy Tarnok and Luis Ortiz…are they eally worried about losing these minor league journeyman?

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    1. said ortiz twice, oops no shade to him lol.

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    2. Luis Ortiz is on the 60 IL so he’s not taking up a roster spot. The Phillies actually have an open spot on the 40 man.

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       1. Rucker I believe came off the 60 day IL.

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14. Phillies have activated Schwarber and Harper. Clemens was optioned back to AAA and as expected, David Dahl has been DFAd.

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    1. Why stop there…..DFA Pache and activate Wilson.

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       1. or cardenas

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       2. Is Pache now the most hated OF since Odubel Herrera or Michael Martinez?

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          1. Hate is kind of a difficult word to describe the feeling for a ball player…he tries but just does not measure up to the test. Disappointing perhaps for me is a better word . But when you think about…..disappointment also with management…DD and Topper…. in their enabling to just keep this act rolling along.

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          2. I’m not sure he’s even the least popular OF on the current team. Castellanos makes more money, is a permanent starter, and only has done ANYTHING useful in the past couple weeks.

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15. Carlos De La Cruz was promoted to LHV. One of my very favorite Phillies minor leaguers. Not because he is some can’t miss prospect but because of his story and how far he has come. Signed for bus fare as an UDFA from the Bronx.

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16. Tyler Phillips to start Saturday game according to philly inq

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    1. If that’s the case, Mercado is the long man? Do we have faith in him to do that after he had a meltdown vs the Braves?

       Good luck to Phillips on his start, he took full advantage of his opportunity.

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       1. Mercado might be starting Sunday if Wheeler ain’t healthy. I say let him rest. Phills should be able to take 2 of 3 from As.

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          1. I would rather he pitch Sunday against the A’s than Tuesday in the ASG.

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             1. Oh I’d rather he not pitch until after the All Star Game. Let this man rest. Between the regular seasons and playoffs he’s racked up a TON of innings on his arm.

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                1. He hates skipping turns – it messes with his stuff. I think they should go to a 6 man rotation for about a month in August like they did last year. That seemed to work pretty well.

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17. Bowden is predicting that DD will land one of three centerfielders. Bellinger, Robert or Chisholm. Says cost will be high. Miller and one of top pitching prospects. Any thoughts. Bowden said Phillies feel good on pitching end.

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18. Bowden reportedly has great sources but in the D.C. area where I live, Bowden doesn’t get any greater run in the media than Philly media gives Sam Hinkie.

    Bowden might be the conduit for teams to put up trial balloons. I’ll be watching between now and the deadline.if this remains his take or whether his story moves in other directions — like a balloon.

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19. Both Aldegheri and Cabrera promoted to Reading!

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20. How does the 17-year old Tait compare in the FCL:

    HRs – 4th

    BA – 6th

    SLG – 7th

    OPS – 10th

    RBIs – 1st

    Hits – 3rd

    Strikeouts – 89th

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    1. https://www.milb.com/florida-complex/stats/strikeouts?page=4

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21. Heh, heh, they sure are giving Harper a good work out over there these first 2 innings, that and the sprint to 1rst in his first AB should test the Ole hammy.

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22. I think it’s safe to assume that Marchan is going to be the primary backup to JT in 2025.

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    1. Yeah, as far as his body of work is concerned he puts out a really good effort. I have to disagree with Jim on his bat, he’s a line drive hitter if I’ve ever seen one.

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    2. Id look to use him as a key part of a trade. Hes a starting caliber catcher now with upside. Id love to hold on to him but JT aint going anywhere and Id rather use Marchan to get somebody to help now. They have other catchers in the system who should be near ready when JT’s time here is done.

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       1. No, the other catchers are at least 3-4 years away. Marchan is way more valuable to the Phillies on their roster than in a trade. Realmuto has one year to go on his contract. At the end of that contract, he will be 34. The history of catchers suggests that, once a catcher turns 33 or 34, his production is expected to plummet. You don’t rely on 35 year-old starting catchers. Marchan might be the starter in 2026.

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       2. Dan, maybe where JT goes next year and the year after and the year after is the IL. Kinda like to keep Marchan in case we need a busy backup.

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23. Wheeler with back tightness and Rojas getting hit on the forearm, not good. Hope both were just precautionary because of the score. This was a really positive night with the two boppers coming back and the offense exploding. Would really stink to have injuries ruin that.

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    1. We don’t need that right now, really. Anyone ever see someone hit more Baltimore chops than Rojas? If it didn’t hit the ground first you could probably invoke the infield fly rule!

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24. Does anyone have 60 day IL info on Rodolfo Castro?

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25. I believe this was Ruben’s final or second to last draft as GM. Not only was it an incredible draft for the Phils but we ended up with a half dozen of the guys on here

    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/redrafting-mlbs-2014-class-trea-turner-goes-no-1-to-astros-cubs-pass-on-world-series-champion/

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    1. Also, LHP Kyle Freeland was also a Phillies draftee out of HS …but chose college.

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26. I’ve been preaching Marchan for 3-4 years now. This kid is really good. However, I’m not a betting man but I’m willing to wager that when Realmuto returns, Marchan will be sent back to LHV. I don’t believe the team will take a chance of disrupting “the chemistry” by parting ways with Stubbs during the season. After the season, yes, but not during.

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27. SSS but the recent “eye test” shows Marchan is better than Stubbs.

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28. Jeff Hoffman needs to be extended and it won’t be cheap.  If they trade for a significant bullpen rental, it doesn’t have implications vis Hoffman.  But if they get a costly bullpen piece with team control, it might signal how the Phils see their chances of retaining Hoffman.  Hoffman on a new contract, Alvarado, Strahm, Soto (arbitration eligible) and Dominguez, if extended, would appear to make cost prohibitive a major addition this month of a reliever under team control.

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    1. Hoffman is going to get paid, probably similar to 4/58 that the Angels gave Raisel Iglesias.

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       1. I was thinking 4/44. He doesn’t have a track record. Iglesias had 140 Saves before his big contract.

          I think the Phillies could retain me but they might need to shed Soto in the process. Can’t afford everyone.

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          1. If the choice is Hoffman or Soto it’s literally a no brainer.

             The actually tricky part is that relievers are still volatile. Hoffman would be tough to replace, but there’s definitely a price point that you just have to let him walk.

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             1. I think they can get it done for the 32-year old Hoffman next season….3 years/$39M. He doesn’t have Boras as his agent, yet, so that is a plus.

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                1. He also might unironically feel loyalty to the franchise/player (Harper) that gave him a real shot and almost immediately put a tremendous amount of trust in him.

                   Plus, you know, we’re currently the best team in baseball. I know this is his best shot at getting a big pay day, but it genuinely wouldn’t shock me if he left a sizable amount of money on the table to stay. That said, I hope he gets a good pay day and continues to pitch well, wherever it may be.

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                2. Romus. I think those are a little high, but time will tell. He does not have any record to fall back on. I see something more like Sanchez deal. Maybe only 3 years. But I agree he deserves a nice pay day. He has earned that. Guys on tv last night were talking how the chemistry in the clubhouse is really good. That may be a factor as well.

                   Watching the Dodger outfielders last night reminded me of what I see almost every game in the travel circuit. Guys who cannot judge fly balls.

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29. In Anaheim, Mickey Moniak hits a HR off Michael Lorenzen. Hans Crouse gets the win for the Angels.

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    1. Battle of the Sheds. You have heard of the Battle of the Cowpens, similar but nobody was killed here.

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       1. As is said in the Miller Lite commercials, “I like it”.

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30. New BA top 30. Abel drops to 12th best prospect in our system. Honestly, I can’t argue with that. Velocity down to pedestrian levels. Can’t throw strikes. Unless/until he changes both he is a non-prospect. I like their top 5, but I personally would rank Miller over Crawford.

    https://x.com/PhilsTailgate/status/1811365384211042361

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    1. Klassen and Aldegheri are pretty high…yet Mavis Grave is left off entirely. Not sure I grasp the logic in that, other than the fact 6 and 7 are at a higher level. Graves IMO is somewhere between 20 and 30 at this point.

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       1. Interesting that they left off the pitcher who is leading the FSL in strikeouts. Wonder if they just didn’t notice him of if they truly don’t think he is a prospect because of his velocity?

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          1. Here’s what I love about what I saw in Graves. For most young pitchers, when you see a montage of strikeouts, usually, the pitcher has one pitch that really works and minor leaguers can’t hit – but that only works in the lower minors. That wasn’t the case with Graves – he was throwing a full assortment of pitches and commanding the zone. I know he’s not a hard thrower, but he is definitely interesting. More Ranger than Bailey Falter.

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    2. This is the best the Phillies system has looked in a long time. The top 6 players look like they have the talent to be starters in the bigs.

       I would move Tait to 7. He looks like a superstar.

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    3. Miller over Crawford 100%. Also think Graves and Phillips could be in there. Not saying Phillips is top 10 but he has a pretty high floor and looks to at least be a major leaguer, coulda cracked 25-30

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       1. Crawford gets underestimated by people on this board. I’m not writing to say he is a better prospect than Miller, but he’s 20 and should soon be in AA. I think he has exceeded expectations. He isn’t a masher but he wasn’t drafted to be one. If they don’t trade him for some two month rental he is your Phillies starting CF when he is in his early 20’s.

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          1. You may be correct he does get overlooked. Basically because of the lack of a power bat, but early so far into his career. He is plus across the board in all tools, almost but not quite, Ken Griffey Jr like. But in pure power he is probably a 45/50 grade. However, his GB rate this year is lower and LD rate is higher….good positive signs as far as trends go. Hopefully he just keeps progressing. This weekend’s Futures Game in Texas will be fun to watch as he hits against some future MLB pitching.

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31. Dahl chooses free agency, goodbye…..

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32. Keith Law’s new mock:

    27. Philadelphia Phillies: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina

    I’ve heard the Phillies a ton with Lindsey, some with the usual set of high school arms even though the Phils’ last two first-rounders were position players, and a little with Lewis. If they go college, it’ll be for someone with an elite tool or two like Honeycutt or Brecht.

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    1. Read his Mock this morning and really hope he’s wrong about the Phillies taking Honeycutt. Scouting reports are he’s a true defensive CF with plus power but lots of swing and miss and pitch recognition issues.

       For a 4-year college player, that’s a major concern to me.

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       1. No doubt it’s a risk, but when you’re picking at 27, all of the players have warts at this point. But if you think you can help him, he would be a fast riser and who knows, he could be the next Cody Bellinger. The Phillies have had a good run lately with their first round picks, so if they feel that they can unlock Honeycutt, I’m good with that.

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       2. I saw a comparison to Drew Stubbs…hopefully if selected he progresses past that comp.

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    2. v1. Honeycutt was the popular name being tossed around during the CWS. He hits lots of home runs but lots of swing and miss with him.

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33. Okay, I have more intel on Robert and it’s only fair that I share since I presented a less than rosy report earlier. This came indirectly from a person close to the Sox team. He is reported to be a very good and popular teammate. One who might actually fit in with the more outgoing and charismatic members of our clubhouse. This is certainly good news since he appears to be one of the Phillies favored targets.

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    1. Do you think the Sox management had any input into Aldegheri’s promo to AA level and wanting to see how he goes up against AA hitters?

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       1. no

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34. That is good to hear. He most likely does get traded plus he has some years to go as well. We will all know what path the Phillies are going to pursue in the not-too-distant future. I do believe CF is the most pressing need at this time.

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35. Of course I haven’t seen any of these kids play. But from what I’ve read, and drafting late, I’m hoping the Phillies get Brecht. He seems like a very high upside athlete who wasn’t focusing totally on pitching. If he does, he can gain more command and, I think, do well. Fingers crossed.

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    1. Law has Brecht going at #20 to Toronto. Based on various rankings, doubt he’s still available when the Phillies pick.

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       1. If Tommy White is there at 27, maybe take a chance with him…..coming out of the SEC he has seen quality pitching. Also, by the time he does his 2 or 2 1/2 year minor league internship, he may be able tp alternate with the then 34-year old Harper as 1B and DH

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36. Honeycutt was the ACC defensive player of the year in ’23 as a center fielder. He hits with power and as 3up wrote, he strikes out a ton. But so does Schwarber.

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37. I hope everyone is enjoying this season. We have had a lot of lean years, but it really doesn’t get better than this>

    https://x.com/JeffKerrCBS/status/1811375406223614381

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    1. 70 games left on the docket….go .500 they end up with 95 wins….do not see either the Braves or Dodgers getting to 95 wins now with injuries to their key stars.

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       1. I expect the team to win about 98-104 games. That said, I really hope the Dodgers continue to play well – what concerns me most is that the Phillies run away with home field advantage and start coasting. You can’t just turn it on and off in baseball. I can see how the bye could easily become a disadvantage.

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          1. I get your point catch, and it’s certainly not impossible that their intensity slows down and the bye kills them, but I just don’t think that this team falls prey to that fate. For one, they just are a different animal at home and especially in the playoffs. I also don’t think it’s their mindset to coast at all. I think this group all has the same goal and knows that they have to deliver day in and day out until they’re World Champions regardless of the date on the calendar or who is in the lineup. I look for no further evidence than Thomson when they got off to that fantastic start that equaled the ’01 Mariners and reporters were asking him about it. Thomson’s only response was, “what did they do in the end?” His point? A team that set a regular season benchmark of 116 wins didn’t win the WS and that’s all that matters. I guarantee that is the message in the locker room from Rob every single day. These guys are humble and hungry. It’s not always easy to get a feel for a team just from watching on TV, but I think we have more insight into this team than any other I can recall. I feel pretty good about the group and their ability to keep going after it regardless of whether their position in the standings would allow them to be on easy streak.

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38. Romus. Skenes had an off day. Only 7 no hit innings vs Brewers today. BP blew no hitter quickly, but he is really good.

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    1. He certainly is…..see how long he goes before the inevitable arm trouble occurs.

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39. Romus. That is interesting. I watched other night. Did not know they played this afternoon. The fact he only threw in the mid 80s while in high school may be a huge plus for him. One thing I noticed is he has a really easy delivery. But he throws so hard there has to be stress as you point out. Guess we will have to wait and see as he progresses.

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    1. Yeah Don…similar to Stephen Strasburg….was not even drafted out of HS in California…..was a bad pitcher in his early years then his senior year he did very well but not enough to impress the MLB scouts…but three years of college turned it all around. Eventually throwing that hard may not be the best formula for longevity.

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40. Romus. I think he grew a lot after high school. Usually, you see that more of a factor in basketball where a kid grows like 6 or 8 inches and becomes a phenom because they have developed good skills when they were small. Skenes may have had good mechanics all along but not the physical traits to use them till at Air Force. Strasburg is similar though Skenes looks much bigger physically. Casey Mize on the Tigers did not get drafted out of high school and went 1 overall. Recently struck out I think 10 Phillies in like 4 innings. Talking now on ESPN of Skenes starting All Star game.

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41. Romus. Couple streaks ended last couple days. Braves won other night 5-4 at Zona. Mets today got their first shutout of the season.

    Just glanced at Bullpen tournament 17U at Grand Park for this week. Like 150 teams. Motor City Hit Dogs who were by far the best when kids were young play tonight at 11:15. Probably much later. We have had heavy rain here the last hour or so. Past my bedtime.

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    1. I remember those tournament days in Oklahoma with my sons…traveling all over OK. Thirty years ago…seemed like every weekend. …when you are young its fun….hundreds of kids chasing dreams,

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       1. I remember a flight from Oklahoma City to Lawton on a DC3. Remember killing the time watching a rivet on the wing dancing around in a circle. Were the kids games anywhere near Chickasha, Broken Arrow, or Lawton. I spent 18 months there.

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          1. Skeet……around Midwest City, Choctaw, Chandler and not too far from Norman…..we did not go further east to Broken Arrow or the Tulsa area.

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             1. Romus. Couple things from game last night. Regarding your comment of kids chasing their dream. Did you hear the MLB guys discuss how the Dodger pitcher made it to CBP last night? The first 5 years he was eligible to be drafted he was not. But COVID did him a favor. He got a 5th year. JC route at first. Then to the baseball juggernaut East Tennessee State. Stated one other MLB guy attended there. Can you name? Anyway, Flack decided only way he was going to get drafted was if he increased his velo. Believe they said he was a mid 80s or so guy. That maybe the normal range for most. So, in last offseason he threw as hard as he could in workouts to increase velo. Not scientific. It worked. Velo went up and Dodgers noticed it plus the fact that he had 57 Ks and only 1 BB his last season. Thus a 2nd round pick and thus a opportunity to pitch last night in CBP,

                My second. Do the Phillies or Scharbomb do anything for the guy with the two kids who dropped Kyle’s line drive home run? Kids had Harper jerseys on so maybe Bryce could chip in. One of the little guys was in tears until they learned they had been shown maybe a dozen times or more on national tv and all of their buddies started texting them. That was a routine catch. Belt high. 108 mph off the bat. First row before rail. No worry of him landing in lower deck. Probably a broken finger or two. I just wondered. I am sure they could find out who they were. LOL

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                1. At the end of the game the kid’s got baseballs, the Dad got a reprieve and the tears were turned to laughter and smiles! Life is good!😃😄😁

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                2. Don……did not hear that about that LA pitcher….very interesting and motivational…..working hard and keep going on pursuing your dream. Good story.

                   Glad to hear the young kids got their balls post-game.

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                3. oldruff and Romus. That is great for the kids. They are about the same age as my youngest one. Maybe got signed balls to boot.

                   I thought the story was great on the Dodger pitcher. He did it all on his own according to Verduci. Atlee Hammaker, they said was the only other major league guy from East Tennessee. I am going to guess I threw in the mid 80s back in the 60s and early 70s. Not aware of ever knowing. There were a few who threw harder. My Legion teammate who got drafted by Giants did and so did the kid at South Alabama. They were kind of the anomalies back then. I do not believe Tommy Underwood threw any harder than I did.

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42. Yep. Lots of travel. Teams from at least 10 states in this tourney. Grandkid team lost to a team from Green Bay this morning. Beat a really good team from Michigan last night.

    MLB guys just gave a stat maybe more incredible than the Braves having lost all games where opponent had scored at least 3 runs till other night. Just said Phillies have had 26 games where starter has gone 7+ innings. Record is 25-1. That is amazing.

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43. Fangraphs mock.

    27. Philadelphia Phillies
    Pick: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC)
    Teams have heard that the Phillies are considering Morlando, as well as the projectable flavor of high schooler pitchers who are poised to go in this range (Kash Mayfield, William Schmidt, Owen Hall, Dasan Hill).

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-mock-draft-1-0/

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44. Crawford promoted to Reading

    https://x.com/TheGoodPhight/status/1811600289276846178?t=1-scNrhi-8CIHaQR3CAVEA&s=19

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    1. Tomorrow afternoon he will play in the Futures Game which airs on the MLB Network at 4PM.

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    2. That will make him a more attractive trade piece being an AA player.

       Just kidding. Congrats to Crawford for making the jump to AA.

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    3. Haven’t seen Crawford in person but he doesn’t look “skinny” anymore. Looks to me like he is filling out and probably be bigger than his uncle Carl. He might never hit 30 home runs but the doubles and triples will be there….and many singles will become doubles with his speed. Great prospect. If I am the GM of rebuilding trading team that’s who I want from the Phillies.

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45. Probably cross Cubs’ Bellinger off the trade list now…fractured finger after getting hit by a pitch.

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46. Here’s my hot take on the Phillies’ outfield with regards to the trade deadline…Centerfield might be the strongest of the 3 spots. IMO a defender who can make plays like this is a very valuable player. This is elite and changes an inning/game. IMO the weakest position in our OF is RF. I think Castellanos is a bad baseball player (note he currently has a negative WAR). I have zero confidence with him at the plate and he is a terrible defender. If I was the GM, I would try to find a team that would take Nick (after buying down his contract in half) along with a prospect or two like Aldegheri and Rincones Jr for a full time OF like Arozarena. If a deal like that is not possible, then I would look to find a platoon Left fielder who mashes against lefty pitchers. Lane Thomas for example absolutely mashes Lefty pitchers. Can’t hit righties. He is the mirror image of Marsh.

    https://x.com/mainlyphils/status/1811555727539875860

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    1. If we are talking about Rojas’s poor hitting in October, then many other things have gone wrong. I don’t care if he is an automatic out when he makes defensive plays like this.

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    2. I agree but I don’t think DD messes with team chemistry. Apparently Nick is well liked and he does hustle. Same can be said of Stubbs. Would much rather see Marchan but it ain’t happening this year.

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    3. Catellanos isn’t going anywhere. He may not get to all of the balls, but the eye test doesn’t scream total butcher out there. He can make some nice catches on balls he can get to, generally doesn’t make mental errors, and has a decent arm when called upon. He’s just not getting traded anywhere. Not to mention, the clubhouse likes him and that is I think very valuable right now. They’re playing really well as a group.

       They’re going to get a platoon bat (Lane Thomas would be great) and hopefully a bullpen addition and maybe a more capable utility guy than Merrifield. I just don’t see enormous moves. This roster doesn’t need a massive upgrade.

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       1. I agree on Casty. He is staying. Awhile back on one of the telecasts it was mentioned that he had the 2nd longest number of outfield games without an error. They mentioned who was first. Think it was Grossman. Kruk was surprised and thought he could break record next year and T Mac said no this year. I have no idea if still intact. Now part of that is that he does not get to as many balls as some. Also, it is really difficult to make an error in the major leagues anymore. Dodgers should have had 2 last night and both were given base hits. Cone made that same comment a few weeks back on a Sunday night game. Finally, Casty is one of Rob’s favorites. He plays almost every inning of every game.

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       2. He looks like a total butcher out there to my eyes

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47. With Hoffman a free agent, I think they go for a rental like Estevez or Scott they can negotiate with, only if they can’t re-sign Hoffman.

    For the OF, I think the Phils have seen enough positive from Rojas to make a right-handed platoon option their priority. Thomas or Arozarena.

    I wonder if the Phils will try (again ?) to move Castellanos this off-season. No matter how that sorts out, they have to start thinking about a Castellanos successor. — even if the trade deadline in 2026 is the earliest when they can move him and get a return.

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    1. Man, that Castellanos contract – it’s bad enough that it’s so much money, but it’s worse still that it’s so long. They will not a get a “return” for Castellanos (other than maybe a lottery ticket). They will eat money and try to get rid of the contract because his deal has negative value (i.e., he’s not worth the contract). That’s what that will be about.

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       1. Wonder if Bryce goaded Dombrowski in signing Castellanos, or did Dombrowski think lightning would stoke twice for him, as for what he did in Boston when he signed JD Martinez six years ago! The contract IMO is about a year too long and about 15% AAV, of an over payment.

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          1. He may have been consulted but this is a DD move – he was in Detroit when Castellanos was drafted. This was just a classic DD overpay/overextend. It happens. No offense to DD, but he’s done worse.

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48. I figured it was coming sooner rather than later but the Dodgers intentionally walked Castellanos(!) so that their lefty reliever can face Marsh. If Marsh wants to take the next step in his development, he’ll need to be able to hit lefties (at least a 650+ OPS). Else he’ll be stuck in a platoon.

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    1. Marsh is a weird, weird case.

       He’s a guy who is a nearly all-star level player – just as a platoon player. He has elite corner outfield defense, very good on base and contact skills such that he’s a plus hitter who continues to develop power. He could play 135 games a year in a near platoon and still regularly produce 4-6 WAR – he’s a bit of unicorn. But if he could just be passable against lefties it will make his path forward a lot easier.

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49. Romus. Skenes all-star game starter. You will get chance to see how easy his delivery is. At least for an inning or two. Quite a story in itself.

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    1. Hey, I watch SportsCenter and Quick Pitch – seen it! He’s fantastic.

       Hopefully, when he gets well, we’ll have something similar to watch with Andrew Painter. The idea of adding him to this already awesome rotation is nearly beyond belief. Damn this team is good!!!! I mean, come on, Aaron Nola is 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA and he’s almost an after thought. Think about how amazing that is. And it’s not like the team can’t hit or we don’t have a good bullpen. This is quite clearly the most complete Phillies team I’ve ever seen (for disclosure, I wasn’t a Phillies fan in the 70s, but I don’t see how any of those teams were as complete as this one either, even though their superstars were a bit better).

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       1. This team is playing really good baseball and you are correct when you say the superstars were better yesteryear. The 1972 team was really bad, they only won 59 games, lost 97. Carlton won 27 and lost 10. Out of the 10 games he lost, they got him 16 runs. I think he had 30 complete games, 310 strikeouts and an era of 1.97.

          My concern is with Wheeler going forward. He is 34 and the mileage has to be starting to show. While the staff has been excellent, I tend to think it an abnomally rather than something we can bank on. The second half will tell the tale. It would have been nice to just get the newbies (Abel & Painter) to slot in as the Wheelers’ start to digress, but maybe one of the other youngsters will fill the role if they do not.

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       2. Catch. The Phillies teams of the late 70s were really good. I had just started teaching and all the others in my building in Carmel were either Reds or Cubs fans here in Indiana. The big Red Machine was just really good. They could not get by them. I do remember the Phillies fans basically booing Burt Hooten of the Dodgers off the mound in Philly during one of those years.

          I agree this team is really good. But still in the back of my mind are games 6 and 7 of the NLCS. World Series was there for the taking last season. Sometimes bitter disappointment leads your mission.

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    2. Romus. Against my better judgement I think I am going to do a double dip this evening. Watch the Phillies at 6:40 and then go watch grandson at Grand Park at 10:15. More likely closer to 11 starts. Teams can play up to 7 games if you keep winning. His team does not have enough top line pitchers. Some teams bring kids in from all over the country for these things. They have like a major league roster. Most every kid is a quality pitcher as well as position player.

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50. Whit merrifield is released!!!!

    Weston wilson called up…

    https://x.com/MearsRylan608/status/1811827110308429831?t=R4TTDbmRaqs2RmPjnveofw&s=19

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    1. Nice job getting this on here so quickly. It’s a sensible move to see what they have in Wilson (maybe nothing) before the deadline to see if they need to find a utility man via trade, or if they can focus on OF/LF platoon and a bullpen arm. I like it.

       Sure Merrifield was a good dude, but he’s a zero contributor now. His career probably reached its endpoint.

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    2. Wow and wow. Cody Clemons got pooched because he was already sent down on Tuesday. Wilson better take advantage of his opportunity.

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       1. Doubt Kody was in consideration this time. They can’t really afford to go even more lefty-heavy.

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    3. Thank you, DD. Thank you so much.

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       1. Dan ………… I believe you are 100% spot on ………… there have to be pictures concerning certain players on the 40.

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    4. You figure the Braves will sniff around Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier once they go unclaimed. Adam Duvall has been atrocious for the Braves.

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    5. Who would have thought!

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    6. Impressed with DD. Cutting his losses. He took a chance on a vet. It didn’t work. Oh well, move on. Good for him.

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       1. Still think a trade for a RHB is still on the table…Merrifield would have been gone anyways after a trade…now he has a few weeks to shop around for another chance before the deadline……and also after the deadline. Pache may be next in line to be moved out if a trade is made.

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          1. Romus. You are doing a lot of moving these days. Guys in and guys out. LOL

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             1. With Bellinger now on the IL…and could be longer than 10 days….Robert may be in play. If so, I hope Miller is not on the list for the WSox to choose from.

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          2. 🤞

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51. Tr

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52. Guru – I believe Merrifield does not need to go unclaimed because he is not on waivers. I think he was released so he can go to another team immediately.

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    1. Dombrowski does seem to do this maneuver with the seasoned vets around all star breaks it seems….Didi, Josh Harrison and now Whit.

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53. This start did not assuage my fears about Ranger.

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    1. I think the Cy Young anointing was a bit premature, but I’m still comfortable with him. A lot of seeing eye singles contributed to his loss tonight and Trea’s less than stellar defense as well.

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       1. Ranger’s incredible strength was always his astonishing, pinpoint control. If my memory is correct he lost it once before in the Girardi days but I am not optimistic about his success until he regains it.

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54. Clunker game tonight. Ranger does appear to be off. As Kruk said bad misses on pitches.

    Romus. Quiz. Waynesburg State, Gardner-Webb, UCL strain, diabetes, 102, 102, 103, 104, 104. Our guy Mason Miller. Wow. Someone is going to get him. Stott and Marsh simply overpowered. His changeup was 93. T Mac said he has only thrown 4 all year. Surely, he meant 4%

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    1. Impressive part is he puts the heat pretty much around the strike zone. Our flame throwers can be 3′ off the plate.

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       1. oldruff. Agree 100%. Plus, few mph’s quicker. Wow what a weapon. Like Skenes to me he has a very easy fluid motion as well.

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55. With Phillips going Saturday and Mercado (or the bullpen) pitching Sunday, this was the game the Phillies had to win.

    In his last 3 games, Ruiz has pitched 1.2 innings, giving up 5 runs and 2 HRs.

    Someone wrote on Monday that the Phillies had to go 3-3 this week. Wouldn’t it be amazing if after sweeping the Dodgers the A’s do it to them?

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    1. Ciada. I mentioned that I hoped at least 3-3 for the week to keep the Braves at bay. They have dropped 2 so far. I did not envision two sweeps. Think Phillies will bounce back and get at least one of these last two. Hopefully both.

       I believe the A’s put Miller on display for all against Phillies with a 4-run lead. Message was make us your best offer.

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56. uh oh! Jim posted that A. Miller is on the Temporarily Inactive List

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    1. I assume because he is in Texas for today’s Futures Game with Crawford.

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57. presumably Bullpen game today… I’m actually excited to see how it works out!

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58. Zack Wheeler will not be pitching tomorrow or the AS game and now we can add Ranger Suarez to the list as he’s battling back spasms. Both are expected to be ok after the break although they will likely not be pitching in the series vs the Pirates.

    Cristopher Sanchez has been added to the AS game as a replacement for Chris Sale. Max Fried was added as a replacement for Ranger.

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59. Stott….. nice golden sombrero

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    1. Be fair if you single out Stott, how about Marsh?

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       1. Marsh had the hat trick but not the sombrero

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60. Alvarado probably threw too much today to make it into the Sunday game. Shame to go into the break with the memory of his 9th inning today lingering. Heard Topper’s excuses for him but that’s what Topper does. Alvarado was getting booed at home which would be nothing like what he’d hear if the game was close and if this was October.

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61. Love!

    https://www.facebook.com/share/r/2vTe66WvHyQ2AKoX/?mibextid=D5vuiz

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62. So the Nationals traded reliever Hunter Harvey to the Royals for prospect Cayden Wallace AND a competitive balance pick (#39).

    Now even though Hunter Harvey has 1 year of control left and he throws hard, he’s not having a good season. The Royals had to give up their #2 prospect (not in the top 100 but still) and a pick.

    All this for Hunter Harvey? So what would it cost to get Mason Miller? You have to figure a trade like this will also bring up the trade values of soon to be FAs like Tanner Scott.

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    1. Guru. I saw one prediction. It had Miller, Abel and one of the Phillies 19-year-olds. Forget name. It was not one I had heard. Mason Miller has 5 years of team control. Heyman said only 16% chance that A’s let him go now. Miller is the Skenes of the bullpen.

       As mentioned above I have concerns about both Hoffman and Alvarado in that critical game 7 or a game to keep the season alive. They have been good but not much pressure at this time in games.

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       1. In term of reliever WAR (which includes closers), Hoffman I think is top 8. So Hoffman has been getting the job. Alvarado is dicey at times (and that’s who he is), but giving the ball to Hoffman in game 7 with a lead, I’m good with that.

          Unless you want to pay up for a reliever…

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63. Alright, Mercado can go back down now. If you get shelled this badly against a AAAA team, you’re not worth a roster spot.

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    1. I think the Mercado as a starter experiment is over.

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64. Brent Rooker isn’t a AAAA player by any stretch of the imagination and topper doesn’t appear to be too much into this game. Certainly if I realized Mercado was done in the 4th, a professional manager should. But, with all-star commitments, a staff with back problems, and short reserves possibly he determined to give one back. 4 day holiday and Dominguez not doing too bad serving them up either.

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    1. Brent Rooker is the reason the team is AAAA instead of just AAA.

       And the fact that he’s bringing Strahm in now, and thus NOT just giving him a break ahead of the AS game, is a joke. I like Thomson as a manager, but today was just straight up malpractice.

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       1. They must look like basketballs 🏀 coming in there!

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65. Well, ……… there you go …. Stubbs …. embarrassing to say the least!🙈

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66. Hell trade Seranthony if he hates his new role so much, his body language is god awful…

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67. The whole series was embarrassing. Thank Heaven they don’t have to play them again.

    My conclusion after watching the debacle – they have got to get more power arms with command for the pen.

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