Phillies Discussion

Other Stuff

Well, here we are in January, and we are once again waiting for the premier free agents to sign and break the log jam of signings.  Yamamoto’s signing with the Dodgers has done little to free up the market.

The Phillies thread reached 50 comments.  I realize that is an unwieldy number to wade through.  I’m sorry and will be more cognizant of the count in the future.  This will serve as the non-minor league article for comments.

The Phillies and Ranger Suarez reached an agreement that will allow both to avoid arbitration.  Suarez will make $5.05M for the 2024 season.  Edmundo Sosa, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto, and Alec Bohm remain headed to arbitration.

The Phillies will be over the CBT limit for a third year.  The only question is whether they will blow through the third punishment level or use it as a “hard” ceiling for acquisitions.

Let’s address some rumors.  National writers insist on including the Phillies as in on every big-name free agent remaining on the market.

Hader:  Does anyone think the Phillies are going to give him a contract better than Edwin Diaz’ 5/$102M deal?  Off the top of my head, the biggest contract the Phillies have ever given was Papelbon’s 2012 4yr/$50M deal.  That’s a $12.5M AAV 11 years ago.  Five years and north of $20M is creeping up on Wheeler’s contract from 2020.  I don’t think the Phillies would or should break the bank for Hader or any reliever.

Bullpen:  Any addition to the team will certainly be a bullpen arm.  there are still a lot of relief pitchers available.  I think that among Jordan Hicks, Robert Stephenson, Aroldis Chapman, Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris, and Michael Fulmer the Phillies will most likely sign the guy who accepts the deal they are willing to offer, short-term and inexpensive.  That might also bring the Phil Maton tier of reliever into play.

Snell or Montgomery:  Blake Snell is going to get paid.  He probably commands a contract better than Nola’s 7yr/$172M that he signed recently.  But are the Phillies the team that is going to give it to him?  Should they?  I know that the Phillies were in on Yamamoto.  I don’t think they were ever really a valid participant in the bidding.  Just because they were interested in the Japanese star, doesn’t mean they would turn around and throw similar money at Snell.  Yamamoto is a generational talent.  Snell has history in the majors and some of it is scary, like his five walks per nine innings.  I think the Phillies would sign him under the right circumstances, though in spite of the QO penalties.

Montgomery was the more attractive option to me because he doesn’t have a QO attached.  However, it has been reported that he wants better than Nola years and money.  That click would be me hanging up.  I think the Phillies would once again sign him under the right circumstances.

The “right circumstances” would be the terms the Phillies are willing to meet.  The longer the pitchers remain unsigned, the more likely the Phillies win the waiting game and swoop in with an offer that they can live with.

Cease:  A pitcher like Cease with two years of team control remaining is attractive to a lot of teams.  But the price tag is going to be expensive.  Figure Abel and Crawford on the table to start the negotiations.  It would be Painter and Crawford if Painter was healthy.  Y’all know that I hardly ever want to trade our prospects.  With Harper and Schwarber out of the outfield discussion, outfield positions are no longer blocked as they had been.  But there is no guarantee that Crawford or any of our other OF prospects step up and grab those jobs in a couple years.  When Wheeler gets extended, that leaves one less rotation spot to be filled from within.  I don’t know.  Maybe the Phillies make such a trade.  DD has been more careful with his top prospects than many of you expected.  Maybe this is the deal where he lets a couple go.

Bench:  A lot of names have been mentioned, especially those who are right-handed bats.  The Phillies are very much into bench guys who can play multiple positions.  So, to shorten this section, I’m going to ignore outfield only guys like Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Aaron Hicks, Robbie Grossman, and Adam Duvall.  Whit Merrifield (corner OF and 2B in 2023) and Kiki Hernandez (2B, SS, CF in 2023) both have the positional flexibility that the Phillies like.  Gio Urshela and Matt Chapman are corner infielders to consider.  Chapman might not be interested in a bench role and would likely be too expensive even if he were to start at third.  Then you have to find a position for Bohm.  Hernandez is two years younger than Merrifield and plays SS.  Any of these guys would be an upgrade to the bench, though.  Comes down to dollars, I guess.

My files are all up to date as of (12/31): They all should be up to date by later tonight.

Important Dates

  • November 2: Trading resumed (the day after the conclusion of the World Series)
  • November 6, 5 p.m. EST: Deadline to make qualifying offers; Article XX(B) free agents can sign with other teams
  • November 7-9: General Managers’ meetings, Scottsdale, AZ
  • November 14, 6 p.m. EST: Deadline to add players to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule5 draft
  • November 14-16: Owners meetings, Arlington, TX
  • November 16: Phillies’ High-Performance Camps close
  • November 16, 5 p.m. EST: Deadline to accept qualifying offers
  • November 17, 8 p.m.EST: Non-tender deadline, if non-tendered a player becomes a free agent (this includes arb eligible players and those who have moved past arbitration)
  • December 3-6, 2023: Winter meetings, Nashville, TN
  • December 5: Draft Lottery
  • December 6: Rule 5 Draft
  • December 15, 5 p.m. EST: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period
  • January 8 – February 9, 2024: High Performance Camp in Clearwater
  • January 12, 2024: Salary arbitration figures exchanged
  • January 15, 2024, 9 a.m. EST: Opening of the 2023-2024 international signing period
  • January 29 – February 16, 2024: Salary arbitration hearings, Scottsdale, AZ
  • February 13, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers, and injured players
  • February 18, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for other players
  • February 23, 2024: Mandatory reporting date
  • March 1-10, 2024: Period for renewing contracts of unsigned players (pre-arb, the 0-3-year players) on 40-man rosters
  • March 20-21, 2024: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego in Seoul, South Korea
  • March 28, 2024: Opening day for all other teams, active rosters reduced to 26 players
  • June 8-9, 2024: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia at London
  • July 14-16, 2024: Amateur draft, Arlington, TX

Transactions

January 2024

1/09/2024 – RHP Wilmer Blanco assigned to the FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies White
1/09/2024 – RHP Alexis De La Cruz assigned to the FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies White
1/09/2024 – C Angel Mata assigned to the FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies White
1/09/2024 – C Euduardo Tait assigned to the FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies White
1/09/2024 – INF Nolan Beltran assigned to the FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies White
1/09/2024 – INF Aroon Escobar assigned to the FCL Phillies from DSL Phillies White
1/09/2024 – Albert Rodriquez released by the FCL Phillies
1/09/2024 – Jehisbert Sevilla released by the FCL Phillies
1/09/2024 – SS Erick Baria released by DSL Phillies Red
1/09/2024 – SS Yoangel Ramos released by DSL Phillies Red
1/09/2024 – OF Jose Leanez released by DSL Phillies Red
1/09/2024 – 2B Arquedion Muller released by DSL Phillies Red
1/09/2024 – SS Luis Pelegrín released by DSL Phillies White
1/09/2024 – Phillies signed FA RHP Zach Haake to an MiLB contract
1/05/2024 – Phillies signed FA LHP Lachlan Wells to an MiLB contract

December 2023
12/22/2023 – Phillies signed FA RHP Efrain Contreras to an MiLB contract
12/20/2023 – RHP Ryan Burr assigned to Lehigh Valley
12/20/2023 – RHP Robinson Pina assigned to Reading
12/20/2023 – 3B Jacob Gonzalez assigned to Reading
12/13/2023 – SS Denilson Aguila assigned to DSL Phillies White
12/12/2023 – Phillies signed FA RHP Ryan Burr to an MiLB contract
12/11/2023 – Phillies signed FA 3B Jacob Gonzalez to an MiLB contract
12/11/2023 – Phillies signed FA RHP Robinson Pina to an MiLB contract
12/08/2023 – RHP Max Lazar assigned to Reading
12/08/2023 – Phillies signed FA RHP Max Lazar to a minor league contract
12/06/2023 – Sugar Land Space Cowboys drafted RHP Carlos Betancourt
12/06/2023 – St. Paul Saints drafted LHP Rafael Marcano
12/06/2023 – Lehigh Valley drafted C Carson Taylor from the Dodger
12/06/2023 – Lehigh Valley drafted C Luis Caicuto from Arizona
12/06/2023 – Lehigh Valley drafted C William Simoneit from Oakland
12/06/2023 – Lehigh Valley drafted 1B Bryce Ball from Cleveland
12/06/2023 – Lehigh Valley drafted SS Trevor Schwecke from Toronto
12/06/2023 – Durham Bulls drafted RHP Blake Brown
12/06/2023 – Omaha Storm Chasers drafted LHP Keylan Killgore
12/06/2023 – Phillies signed IFA SS Denilson Aguila (Cuba) to a minor league contract
12/05/2023 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Joshue De La Cruz to a minor league contract
12/04/2023 – RHP Nick Snyder assigned to Lehigh Valley
12/04/2023 – Phillies signed FA RHP Nick Snyder to a minor league contract

 

144 thoughts on “Phillies Discussion”

  1. I believe there are 2 spots open on the roster. I would expect one to be a multi position player/hitter (better hitter than what the bench has now). The other is likely a RP or maybe a SP who will challenge Sanchez’s spot to a degree with the other going to pen. The one going to pen would likely be the new guy anyway so he could be a multi inning reliever. I do not expect any big expenses maybe $7mil +/- for maybe Neris or such.
    Outside of that expect a SP or two on minor deals with spring invites to big league camp plus another RP or two on same deals.

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    1. Neris opted out of $8M and will likely want multi years. I like Neris but don’t think the Phillies will bite.

      I don’t think they are looking to add a pitcher at the back end of the rotation. I think Sanchez is safe. If they get a starting pitcher, I think he will better than a guy vying for the fifth spot. Assuming the acquisition can slot behind Nola and Wheeler a trade involving Walker would follow freeing up money for the new pitcher.

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        1. Denny, McKinley Moore is on 40 man roster, Andrew Baker, Jack Dallas, Tommy McCollum, Alex McFarlane, Griff McGarry, Wen Hui Pan, Brett Schulze, and Andrew Schultz are just a few names to watch this year. Someone may put it all together.

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          1. Thanks, looking at his stats, he should be as good as some of the people already in their bullpen and some on 40-man like Bellati, Brogdon, Covey, Marte, Mercado, Nelson, Ortiz.

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            1. I thought his velocity was in the low 90s. Almost no successful righty reliever these days tops off in the low 90s without a true out pitch, and I don’t think he has one. My expectations for him are not particularly high.

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      3. My sense Dave has a budget for each player, and stays within for beginning of the year. Trade deadline – IF – they are competitive, look out.

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  2. In addition to Ranger Suarez ($5.05M), the Phillies have reached agreements with Jeff Hoffman ($2.2M), Edmundo Sosa ($1.7M), and Gregory Soto ($5M). They face an arbitration hearing with Alec Bohm after exchanging figures.

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  3. I get that you can never have enough pitching, so the Phillies giving an offer to Yamamoto was completely warranted, considering his age and talent level.

    What I don’t understand is the Phillies still looking for starting pitching after signing Nola. Unless Snell and Montgomery take team friendly deals (they won’t), the Phillies should just roll with Sanchez and focus on relievers. If the Phillies want to save some cash and give young guys a chance, then Sanchez is the type of guy you want in the rotation.

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    1. If they are looking for starting pitching my guess is that the Phillies are thinking as follows. First, they are in a serious contention window right now. If there would be any time to sign one more arm to get them over the top, it is right now. Second, if they sign a really high end guy to a long-term deal, that’s a signal they will likely move on from Wheeler after this season, with the hope that Painter will replace him over the period of a few years at a much lower cost. I wouldn’t at all be shocked if they signed Snell – a rotation of Wheeler, Snell, Nola, Suarez and Walker/Sanchez – might the best in baseball and would certainly be in the conversation.

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      1. I think the Phillies had real interest in Snell. Still do. He has a Harper connection and that carries weight in the organization. However, his market got out of hand. If the needle moves back to a number and years they are comfortable with, they might sign him. But I think that is unlikely.

        I think the Phillies interest in Yamamoto was real. I don’t think they had a chance, though. Had they been able to interest him in the organization, I think we would have eventually started talking about his window in the same breath as Harper’s. As it is, I don’t believe they ever made an actual dollar amount offer. No matter what you read.

        I think the Phillies had real interest in Montgomery. I believe early projections had Montgomery and Nola getting the same dollars and years. I’ve read he wants a deal that exceeds Nola’s. I think that puts him over what the Phillies are interested in spending. If things change maybe their interest is rekindled. Again, I think it’s unlikely.

        However, if they were to sign one of Snell or Montgomery, I think they would still be interested in extending Wheeler. I think Walker would welcome a trade. And I think the Phillies would move him to make room in the rotation and use the monetary savings as justification for the free agent signing and the extension. I know a lot of people think Walker was an overpay. However, his salary doesn’t look so egregious with the way pitching cost has risen.

        I also think that a trade for a Cease type pitcher would not block a Wheeler extension and would initiate a Walker trade. That is unless the deal included Walker which probably isn’t likely.

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        1. Walker is what he is. On the one hand, he gives you lots of innings and he can win games for a good hitting team, like our team. He did earn his salary last year, if barely. On the other hand, he’s an $18 million a year player who isn’t good enough to pitch one freaking inning in the post-season, which is astonishing at some level. So, he earned his money last year (future years are tbd), but he’s a guy that really top organizations – like the Braves – are able to avoid. If this team pumped out solid 3rd and 4th starters from its farm system, it could reallocate Walker’s money toward a star player.

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  4. Jordan Hicks just signed for 4/44 BUT the Giants are converting him into a starter. It’s a good deal for the Giants. If Hicks has any sort of success as a starter, this contract will look amazing. No mention of any opt outs which to me is surprising.

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      1. Rocco … going off memory … but it seem like the Braves had his number in his last year, probably 2 with the Phils. They were able to Layoff his split … which pretty much makes him ineffective. My guess is that’s still the case or worse. Pass.

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        1. You piqued my memory so I checked his career stats against Atlanta –

          2023 – 2 games, 2 wins, 2.0 IP, 0 BB, 2 K
          2022 – 2 games, 1 BS, 2.0 IP, 0 BB, 2 K
          2021 – 8 games, 2 saves, 2 BS, 7.1 IP, 8 BB, 11 K
          2020 – 3 games, 2 holds, 2.1 IP, 1 BB, 2 K
          2019 – 10 games, 6 saves, 1 BS loss, 10.0 IP, 3 BB, 13 K
          2018 – 9 games, 1 win, 1 loss, 2 holds, 1 save, 8.2 IP, 4 BB, 13 BB
          2017 – 9 games, 2 wins, 1 hold, 5 saves, 9.1 IP, 5 BB, 11 K
          2016 – 7 games, 1 win, 2 holds, 1 BS, 7.0 IP, 3 BB, 5 K
          2015 – 3 games, 5.0 IP, 1 BB, 4 K
          Total – 43 games, 6 W, 2 L, 4 BS, 7 holds, 14 saves, 53.2 IP, 25 BB, 63 K

          He was the Phillies primary closer from 2017 through the trade deadline in 2021 when the Phillies acquired Ian Kennedy. Some of his worst performances seem to have been in his first outing of the season or on the second of back-to-back appearances.

          I remember he always took the ball when asked and never told a manager he couldn’t or wouldn’t pitch.

          Like many, I remember sweating out his appearances. But he didn’t have as many blown saves or walks as I thought I remembered.

          I didn’t do earned runs because I didn’t feel like doing the math. When I was tempted to go back and calculate his ERA, I decided that might not be a fair indicator. Neris started one season against the Braves and gave up 3 runs in 0.2 innings for an ERA of 40.50. That’ll skew any relievers ERA for most of a season.

          I don’t think we have to worry about Neris. I can’t see the Phillies meeting his year and dollar demands.

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  5. I guess Jordan Hick’s price of $11M AAV was too steep for the Phillies to match,
    Giants are flush with surplus funds.

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        1. Well, with Hoffman, Strahm, and Dominguez (club option for 25) all pitching in contract years the team may be looking for a 2 year deal for a reliever. I’m still wondering what starters they may sign as depth to AAA.

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          1. Most AAA depth will consist of prospects, older non-prospects, and journeymen (on minor league deals) looking for a way back to the show. Don’t expect teams to sign a competent 6th starter and have him report to AAA. Most decent pitchers are out of options anyways, but no pitcher will agree to that type of deal. They want to stay in the bigs.

            Mick Abel will likely get first crack at a spot start. Nick Nelson should be in the mix. I think Christian McGowan will eventually be part of the depth.

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    1. He has th size for sure.
      6′ 3″……..210
      Scouting grades:
      Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55

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        1. What’s he going to get the Phillies? He’s not a top 100 prospect. His value is what the Phillies see in him, for sure the other teams won’t see it that way or they’ll give lowball offers. So there’s no reason to trade Rincones right now.

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          1. You are right, he’s not, so if someone wants him as part of something you need, you let him go. You have the position covered by Turner for years. Just asking how Romus saw him.

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            1. Your comment originally made it unclear if you were talking about Bryan Rincon or Gabriel Rincones. In either event, the upside of each prospect is better than his trade value. Both are very intriguing prospects. Expect the Rays to be sniffing around Bryan Rincon (I’m completely serious) – he fits their growth profile perfectly. Great fielder, high walk rate, very low strikeout rate, growth potential as a hitter. His profile screams huge WAR value. Incredible 14th round draft pick.

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            2. Especially now that the Rays will not see Wander Franco for some time on the field…Rincon could be their long term answer.

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  9. He has the size for sure.
    6′ 3″……..210
    Scouting grades:
    Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55

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  10. I often have small gripes with certain in-game decisions our manager and coaching staff makes.

    So I’d like to take this opportunity to thank the Eagles for giving me some perspective.

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    1. No manager is perfect and almost every move in baseball can be second-guessed but, in my view, Rob Thomson is an outstanding manager – the best I’ve seen in a Phillies uniform by a good bit. He has great people skills like Charlie Manuel with a very high level of in-game and in-season managerial technical ability. We stumbled into a very fine manager with Thomson. I love the guy.

      And on the Eagles, were it not my team, I would have bet a boatload against them yesterday. How on earth, after their freefall, were they favored by 3 points? Astonishing. It was very clear after the Arizona game who they were and the Giants game confirmed that (I saw that stinkeroo in person – ugh!!!).

      It will be hard for Sirianni to keep his job and, even if he does, it will be the biggest house cleaning you’ve ever seen on the coaching side and the player side too.

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      1. Yeah, on the whole I’m extremely happy with Skipper. I’m just thinking of things like batting Schwarber leadoff or pitching to Corbin Carroll with a base open when we need two outs. Moves that are defensible, but sub-optimal.

        Fortunately I’m not actually an Eagles fan. But I do prefer when they’re good, because I love the city of Philadelphia. And were I an Eagles fan, I’d want anyone who had any say in their offense to be fired.

        That’s definitely not the case on the Phillies side. I would maybe like to add a young-ish coach to the bench to give a different perspective and potentially groom to take over down the line. But I don’t expect that, nor will I be upset when it doesn’t happen.

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  11. Skeet…….Rays may look to replace Franco down the road, since he will not be on the field for awhile again.
    Rincon could be their long term solution for them.

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    1. Yep, exactly what I was thinking. Beware the Rays’ trojan horse – we should not let them steal this prospect. He has a lot of potential value.

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        1. rooco…..well they did get Mead fom us….but Sanchez has made that deal well worth it for the Phillies to date. Mead has not panned out at the MLB level, so……
          Now from the Cards they got Azorena.

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          1. Romus-I believe Tampa stold Junior Caminero – their # 1 prospect and the best power hitter in the minors last year from Cleveland several years ago. He is promoted as a future star. Moreover one could list numerous pitchers ad nauseum they have turned into productive players.

            The Phillies are very lucky with Sanchez because Tampa almost never loses a trade. They have forecasting information and training acumen that no one else has. You can bet that the Dodgers acquisition of Taillon is not going to work because Tampa knows his arm will fall off again. It is almost unfair to deal with them.

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  12. In reading about the international signings I have to admit I am more disappointed about the Phillies’ showing than the Eagles result which was predictable. The Phils only sign the # 19 talent ? I know they only have $4 million but they weren’t even listed on some of the overall writeups. Why is this such an under represented source of talent ? The only possible explanation is they didn’t sign any big name/big money players because with such a small pool they will spread it around and try and find 20 players they can pay $25,000 to ???? Braves and Padres get the # 1/2 players !! Even the Angels ?

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    1. I would withhold judgment on this signing for now. I like the player’s profile a LOT. Growing, athletic, potential power hitter. Enough with the skinny little guys who will never match big league pitchers. That profile almost never works.

      Anyway, here’s why you should wait.

      In 2015, the top 5 guys in the signing class were as follows:

      Yadier Álvarez
      Vladimir Gutierrez
      Yusniel Díaz
      Alfredo Rodriguez
      Eddy Martinez

      Jhailyn Ortiz was 10.

      Pretty bad signing class, eh?

      Nope.

      You know who was 25? Juan Soto

      You know who was 30? Fernando Tatis, Jr.

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      1. I can’t imagine why this would get 3 thumbs down. Catch’s point is spot on and delivers with some great facts/names.

        Not to mention the Phillies now have a new director of international scouting Derrick Chung. Sal is still listed as the Senior Advisor but I think that is more ceremonial than hands on these days.

        In other words you will never convince me that signing and projecting 16-17 y/o kids is all luck.

        Give me a choice between the #1 supposed talent and the rest of field and I’ll take the rest of the field every time (hyperbole)

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        1. Meant to say “In other words you will never convince me that signing and projecting 16-17 y/o kids isn’t all luck.”

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  13. Really hard to judge for certain when players are that young. Baseball probably the most difficult to judge.
    Just to add a little to those of the Eagles.
    Being a Central Indiana kid growing up in the 60’s. No football or baseball so had to adopt. Did not like the Bears or Packers who were basically only teams on then. Or the Yankees in baseball. So, my teams became the Phillies in baseball and Cowboys in football plus a normal Indiana kid with the Hoosiers in basketball. There were lots of good days, but those days are getting long gone.
    IU is awful this season and really has not been a factor for years.
    Cowboys of all their failures Sunday was the most Pathetic performance I have ever witnessed.
    Phillies were so disappointing last Fall. A year ago, they were close, but Astros were good. This year everything was falling in place until it wasn’t.
    So, guess just hoping 2024 is better for all. Plus, all Phuture Phillies guys as well.

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    1. Don…lol…disappointment abounds.
      Plenty of Cowboy fans in the Philly area…some of my friends actually…even one old hi-maintenance gal-pal..she moved to FL last year, so….hah.
      Correct…hard to judge what a 16 year old will turn out.
      Phillies may have a gem in Edourd Tait…a bargein price signee…then there was 4M dollar guy Jhailyn Ortiz back 9 years ago….go figure.
      You just got to keep ‘playing to win’.

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    2. Don, I am sorry the glass from last year is half-empty for you. This may not cheer you up, but the Phillies made it to the playoffs which (duh!) very few teams do. The Atlanta Braves were an absolute juggernaut last year, winning 104 games. How many years – ever – have the Phillies won 104 games? NEVER. And the Phillies beat them in the playoffs. Arizona’s game plan may have been superior the last couple games of that series, but coming within one game of the world series, perhaps, is not THAT shabby.

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  14. No doubt. As kid I could get Phillies on radio at night on think it was WCAU. Was it like 1210 maybe. I forget specifics.
    I always thought Cowboys uniforms were cool plus I was a farm kid so kind of went with the territory.
    How are you feeling? It has been really cold here. Probably killing most of the germs around here. LOL.
    IU had a basketball team several years ago that simply fell apart like the Eagles did this year. There had to be something internal. IU deal was drugs to some extent.
    There are Cowboy fans everywhere. Told people a few years ago that Prescott is to me like Romo. Lots of wins during season but not pressure guys.

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    1. Yeah Cowboys do have that star on their helmet…..some people in Philly think that is their overall rating anymore…a one-star team
      Of course the Eagles are no better with their collapse these last 7 weeks.

      Getting close now to pitchers and cacthers……I think Dombrowski makes a few reliever signings in the next two weeks. Stephenson is still out there along with a few others….Nick Maton’s brother Phil for one..

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  15. A catcher signing…arguably best tools in the class…assume Phillies signing class.:
    Anderson Nava, catcher, Venezuela
    Nava, 16, moves well behind the plate for his size (6-2, 176). BA grades his arm at 70. The Phillies believe the power will come as he adds weight and see him as a potential breakout prospect. “He’s got plus tools, arguably the best tools in this class,” Derick Chung said. “He’s a plus-plus runner. He’s got a plus-plus arm and he’s got plus power. So there’s a lot of projection there with the combination of all that and his athleticism.”

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  16. A catcher signing…arguably best tools in the class…assume Phillies signing class.:
    Anderson Nava, catcher, Venezuela
    Nava, 16, moves well behind the plate for his size (6-2, 176). BA grades his arm at 70. The Phillies believe power will come … and see him as a potential breakout prospect. “He’s got plus tools, arguably the best tools in this class,” Derrick Chung said. “He’s a plus-plus runner. He’s got a plus-plus arm and he’s got plus power… a lot of projection with the combination of all that and his athleticism.”

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  20. Romus…I am ready for Spring Training. Baseball has always been my favorite. One thing I would like to do someday is get down to Phillies Spring Training for a few days. Probably will not happen. My wife is not into it and really no other fans around here. Back long long long ago I did go once. In the Spring of 73 during Spring Break at BSU I got my girlfriend/wife to be in a couple of months to trek to Florida with me. Think back to 73. Baseball strike. We did get to see the complex from the outside. Believe it was the Carpenter Complex. So that is my one time there.
    I am just going to sit back and see what unfolds in the next few weeks. Maybe the Phillies believe they have all the bases covered with what they have. One thing I keep seeing in articles is that some guys are by passing the Phillies because they do not see a spot for them. Did that keep Ohtani and Yamamoto from going to LA? Do not think so. So just wait and see time. At least sun is out this morning. Spring must be just around the corner.

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  21. Any information out there about some of the other LA signings? I saw we signed 2 other position players for mid 6 figures. Matt W had about 15 names listed yesterday on his site(tremendous information) yet they were just position players. Just checking to see if there’s more intel on other Jan 15 signings. Btw LA signings are a bigger crap shoot than the MLB draft. With that said we have not hit on a high priced LA signing in decades; thankfully Sal A has been removed from that position.

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  23. Romus…too many moons ago. LOL But it looked nice what we could see. They had all the gates locked. Think that sounds correct. That is my Phillies Spring Training history. Teaching we always had Spring Break the first week of April when teams had gone North for the season.

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      1. Hard to pick-up his “sweeper” it started so low to the ground and he had a tendency to “roll” off the mound after his delivery. Prior to his injury he would often approach the “bench” with ideas to confuse the opposition………those were the days my friend a bygone era!

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    1. Stephenson is the guy I would go and get. Been saying it for over month now…

      I’d give him 3/$33 or even 4/$32 if he’d take it. The longer he sits out there the more teams will start digging into just how good he is as they start to shy away from Hader’s number.

      Actually would not have minded Hicks as a BP piece but not as a starter.

      Hader is a hard no for me. Would settle for either Maton, Stanek or Neris.

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      1. DMAR…agree on Stephenson, though a 4 year contract may be a year too long for my taste.
        I would stop at three years…the AAV of $11M would probably seal the deal for him.

        Hector coming back….now that is an interesting thought.
        Money aside, I wonder if he is receptive to coming back.

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        1. Yea Romus you would probably not want me as GM for I am way too hasty LOL

          I’m not opposed to trading for a closer but I’m also clutching all my pearls so I’m not willing to give a team like the Pirates anything good for Bednar.

          As for the other 3 names they certainly aren’t closer material but they are good enough to lengthen the pen and allow the heart attack kid to exclusively close 🙂

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  28. Romus…Neris would be interesting. I remember back in the day when Earl Weaver had closer who I forget his name, but Weaver had nickname based on the number of cigarettes he smoked while the guy tried to close out the game.
    Neris seems to get the job done but it can be interesting. But in reality, it is that way with many of the guy’s Phillies currently bring out.
    I am not sure I have ever seen Stephenson but lots of you seem to think he might be best option. I can live with that.

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    1. I mean, Neris is okay, but we know what he is and we let him walk. In my view, this team needs a potential closer because we have plenty of set-up men. I don’t view Hector as a great closer – he’s more effective as a set-up reliever. I am not sure I need to see that again, but there are worse options.

      If you look at Stephenson, he’s a boom/bust type of reliever. One really good year, followed by a horrible year, although perhaps Tampa really unlocked something in him at the end of last year (just as they unlocked another couple of levels of performance from Zach Eflin).

      It’s a shame none of the hard throwing guys we have drafted, other than Kerkering, have been able to help in the bullpen yet due to control issues. We could really use a guy like Baker to support the bullpen corps.

      FYI – for the three individuals who give every post of mine a thumbs down regardless of what I say (one time, I think I just said something innocuous about rooting for the Phillies and the obligatory three thumbs down occurred anyway): (a) if I offended you somehow on a personal level, my apologies – I just like a healthy debate and I have nothing against anyone here at all;( b) if you disagree with what I say, why don’t you take a moment to comment and add to the conversation – you won’t offend me if you disagree; and (c) I’ve been on this site since it went up in 2006 – so if you think a little thumbs down is going to dissuade me from posting, you’re wrong.

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      1. I get the up/down years that RPs generally demonstrate. With Stephenson I’ll take the chance on his 2023 numbers with the Rays as something clearly was unlocked for him…

        First was his .678 WHIP which is remarkable.

        Second his 1.9 BB/9

        And last but not least 14.1 K/9

        I know its a risk based on track record but its hard to look away from those numbers when you consider what he should cost.

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  29. Romus…after I post I get message today saying to subscribe. Should I do that? Message today is different than one I have been seeing. Thanks.

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    1. Don…subscribe to what?
      To get emails sent to you in response?
      My system is very hit and miss with this newer version of Word Press.
      Some go thru…some do not.
      Not sure what to tell you….do not want to screw you up.

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  30. Agree with all on Stephenson. He is a little bit of a gamble, i.e. can he repeat his breakout year ? Still I think he would be effective. However, still like Phil Maton for his long relief work. He could spell Sanchez and others if they wilt after 5.

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  31. Catch…no thumb down from me. I enjoy your posts. I just now noticed what you are talking about. Guess not too observant on my part. Never paid attention to the Rate This. I just try not to offend anyone.
    See an article that says Mets, Dodgers and Phillies are trying to land Stephenson. No idea how involved but Morosi is the one saying it and he is one I like better than some.

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  32. Romus…ok. I used to have lots of issues not knowing. But recently pretty good. Last couple weeks each time I post a couple red boxes come up. Today one said to subscribe, and it showed my email address in caption. The other box said to just continue reading. That is what I hit, and my post went through. The past was similar, but wording was different. I have never signed up. Not sure what signing up is for, so I pass. I just try to post.

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  33. Romus…here is what it says. I wrote it down.
    Discover more from Phuture Phillies.
    Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to full archive.
    Then box with my email and place to hit subscribe
    Box below says just continue reading. That is what I hit.
    But I have no idea what I should be doing.

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    2. Don, Romus’ suggestion about emailing Jim is assuredly the most authoritative way to go, but in case it is helpful I get a similar message asking if I want to subscribe. I can’t speak to this site, but generally when you subscribe to a WordPress discussion, every time anyone leaves a comment on that discussion you get an individual email with that comment. That continues until the discussion ends so you are always current with the latest comments… but can get a LOT of emails

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  34. Hader to Astros for 5 years and 95 million. He didn’t beat the Diaz contract like he wanted but he got close to the same contract. That is still too much for a 1 inning closer IMO.

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    1. Its a risk and gamble for the Stros towards the end of his contract…he turns 30 this season, but they are willing to take that risk.
      Except for the 2022 hiccup and that trade year…he has been consistent.

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    1. A bit of a letdown…..would have liked him in Philly, but…same price I thought Phillies could have gone with $11M AAV over 3 years, the option year is something else.

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      1. He only threw 38+ innings last year. In looking at this, I’m wondering if there is a STAT that I’m overlooking, slash for hitters faced. If a pitcher is facing weak hitters vs top hitters. If you have a mop up guy that is facing the bench and putting up good numbers vs pitcher that throws in high pressure situations.

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    1. Its water under the bridge now but I think the Angels got themselves a really good back of the BP guy. It’s likely that he wanted to play on the West Coast anyway and who knows if DD and the crew were really interested.

      But I think its reaching to say his numbers were good because he didn’t face anyone.

      Moving on now….

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      1. I think a bullpen is like a science experiment. Each year it is a composite of young hard throwers, over the hill starters, career year throwers, mixed in with a late addition from the minors or from another team’s laboratory. You never know how it will react until its all mixed together and so many outside influences can affect it; starting pitching, and a team that scores early and often. I think being the mad scientist that concocts the bullpen is either a genius or simply mad.

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      2. DMAR……Phillie will not go over two years it appears in any free agent reliever contracts.
        i think Wheeler is right now their priority.

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        1. Well hopefully they know what they are doing and what they have in the pipeline.

          It seems winning 100 and your division doesn’t mean too much anymore but you still have to win those tie breakers against the other teams you’re competing with for one of those WC spots.

          Despite what he did in the playoffs Kimbrel did log 66 IP out of the pen last year picking up 23 saves.

          They haven’t replaced that…

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        2. I think they might for the right guy at the right time, but I agree they generally will be hesitant to go beyond two years. It will be interesting to see if they can reach an extension with Wheeler before he hits free agency. If they do, my prediction is 3 years and $105 million – just below what guys like Scherzer and Verlander were getting (on an AAV basis). If he stays healthy and effective, one way or another, Wheeler is going to get paid.

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          1. Yes…I do hope they work on the Wheeler contract and get it resolved prior to going into the season.
            And that sounds to be in the ballpark…..3 yrs@$105M, though Wheeler saw what Nola did, and he also may decide to give a slight discount in order to stay in this City of Brotherly Love..

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  37. I think everybody knows that Adrian Beltre is going to be a first ballot HOFer. He had 93.5 WAR(!) and a career slash of .286/.339/.480. But what’s stunning to me is that in 21 years, he has NEVER had a negative WAR season. Even in his final season at age 39, he had 1.5 WAR. Not only that, he’s only had 2 negative dWar seasons. He has had a remarkable career.

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    1. Adrian Beltre was such a great player, but he had a weird career that was super back-ended. Through the age of 30, he was viewed to be a great fielding third baseman who was a bit of a disappointment as a hitter, other than his one phenomenal season with the Dodgers. Then, he had perhaps the best age 31-38 performance and improvement of any position player in the history of baseball (some pitchers had similar late blooming careers, including Randy Johnson, a bunch of knuckleball pitchers and Dazzy Vance – a guy who essentially did nothing until age 31 and went on to have a HOF career – look him up!).

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      1. “….. best age 31-38 performance and improvement of any position player in the history of baseball (some pitchers “…I would also add LHP Warren Spahn.

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  38. See an article mentioning Phillies possibly pursuing Fujinami. He had really bad season last year but guess he throws really hard. Strike zone is different story.
    Hinkie… is this the guy who you said at one time was similar to Ohtani. Like 1A and 1B in Japan.
    Romus…do you go to Clearwater like many of the guys on the site. Just wondering. Thanks.

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    1. Don…have not been down to Florida in awhile now….maybe time to head back down. Buddy has a condo in Clearwater and going to St Patty’s game…I did not hook up with him, maybe later.

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  39. I always like watching the Spring Training games that end up on TV. I would like to make it sometime but not sure it will happen. Just my luck I did in 73.

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  40. If the Phillies sign Wheeler to an extension, is the offseason a success?

    Nola resigned
    Wheeler Extended
    Overall team defense improved for the year with Bryce’s move to 1st, protecting his arm another year
    kerkering for a full year, taking over Kimbrel’s spot

    What else needs to be done… besides winning a WS Championship for this to be successful? Its not feeling as good without a Bullpen arm imo.

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    1. We have to get some luck in these older pitcher signings like Verlander, Schertz and others. Just think of Doc, Lee and Oswald would have stayed healthy then we would have held onto Handel’s. Also Howard & Utley, then we would have had Rollins and Victorino longer, keeping Werth too.

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      1. Werth was gone well before injuries started to hit us. There was just no way we were going to match that crazy contract he got from the Nats. In fact, the word around town was that ownership wasn’t willing to pay both him and Lee. And if you HAVE to choose between them (not that we should have had to…) it’s a no-brainer.

        Howard’s injury was brutal. But ultimately it was Halladay’s injuries and decline that started our teardown. We legitimately could have had a AAA offense and still won the division with a front three of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. I still get depressed thinking about his retirement announcement.

        Miss you, Doc.

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        1. True on Werth…if I remember correctly Ruben was looking to move Werth at the trade deadline in July 2010 , but Shane Vic came up with a calf pulled at that time, and they backed off in any trade. I always thought that was a little weird at the time as Dom Brown was the new toy ready to go to RF

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        2. I miss Doc too

          But to your Werth point I believe he got $128 Howard got $125 not sure how the timing of that went down but just going off memory I think the Nats got a lot more out of their $128 than we did our $125.

          The Howard contract was on ownership specifically Montgomery.

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        3. Halladay had the most precipitous fall of any great player I’ve ever followed. He ended the 2011 season as one of the five best (perhaps three best) pitchers on the planet. When he got to spring training in 2012, he couldn’t throw a 90 MPH fastball and, with that, his career was essentially done overnight. Starting in 2012 he was a borderline 5th starter. It was staggering and sad, especially for such a unique and great player. Then his retirement was sad and his death was devastating.

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  41. Its a tough business. You do things on paper that make total sense based on the current circumstances/facts and then they get put into practice and outside forces exert their will on them.

    The Dodgers largesse this off season for example. Will it work? Who knows but in theory you kind of feel inadequate if you’re a fan of another team.

    In theory a couple of seasons ago the Braves should have extended Freeman but they moved on and then seemingly struck the deal of the decade in their trade for Olson.

    Freeman hasn’t gone in the tank or anything but as good as he is he hasn’t been Olson and if you factor in the cost Olson provides exceptional value and production.

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      1. The Brewers would seem to be a good fit for him and the team. Hoskins was always one of my favorite players. He was home-grown, played hard, was always a good teammate and stand-up guy, and he was quietly an underrated player. Guys who hit 30 homers a year with a decent on-base percentage are harder to find than you might think. I’ll miss watching him and still think they haven’t quite replaced his bat behind Harper in the line-up.

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        1. Agree one of the biggest disappointments for me last season was that Rhys went down and didn’t get to play out his last year with us.

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        2. Monday June 3rd thru Wed June 5th Brewers are in Philly……Rhys should get plenty of love and adulation while in town.

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  43. Rhys has been a true gentleman and solid contributor. No one ever questioned his effort. Kind of the Tony Taylor of today’s generation.

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  44. 3B Prospect listing came out. Miller is at #9. Nice to see, but what I found interesting is that the majority of those 3B prospects are due to hit the MLB this year. By those rankings, he is due for a big jump. If he progresses anywhere near expected, he could easily be a top 3 3B prospect … which is a nice luxury to have. The timing seems to be on point with Bohm’s contract. Many have said he is one of the steals of the draft. Fingers crossed… its a nice problem to have that is usually reserved for top farm teams like the dodgers.

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    1. If the Phillies are sold on Rojas for the future, and the Dodgers came along and offered a pitching prospect like Jackson Ferris for Justin Crawford….I would seriously think about that.

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  45. The HOF voting has come out and Utley is at 28.8% and Rollins is at 14.8%. I think Utley will get more votes as the years go on, but not for Rollins. I love JRoll but 47.6 WAR is not going to cut it even if has a MVP season under his belt.

    My buddy, the Blue Jays fan, is not happy with Helton getting in. Says he doesn’t deserve it, especially since his numbers are inflated in Colorado.

    I’m surprised that Andruw Jones doesn’t have more votes (61.6%). I hate to say it but Andruw was a great player.

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        1. rocco…..some writers selected Harold Baines 5 years ago…..39rWAR over 22 years…they may not know as much as you think……of course on that panel there were only three journalists….but there were six players, one manager, six executives,

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        2. Definitely don’t agree with Jim Leyland in the HOF. He is basically a .500 manager almost had a many losing seasons, 10, as winning, 13.
          If it weren’t for a Marlins team that stocked up on free agents in the 90’s and then a stacked Tigers team that Alan Trammell had to ride until they got better and Leyland took over 15 years after the Marlins Team, he would be a below the 50/50 breakpoint.
          Juiced up Barry Bonds helped him in Pittsburgh at the beginning of his career.

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    2. Never remembering delaying grabbing another beverage or hitting the bathroom cause Todd Helton was in the on-deck circle. Solid player, not HoF-player.

      Best of luck to Rhys.

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  46. I don’t know if this was posted anywhere, but Fangraphs dropped their Phillies top prospects list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/philadelphia-phillies-top-26-prospects-2024/

    The first surprise is Caba at #3. I knew that he was a good prospect, but they are extremely high on him. 70 future hit tool, 60 run tool and 80 future defense. That’s a star folks. Comp’ed his defense to José Iglesias. Wow!

    Next big surprise was Crawford at #7. They were kinda low on Crawford. “MLB did Crawford and the Phillies a bit of a disservice by selecting Justin to play in the 2023 Futures Game, as Crawford’s batting practice session was easily the least impressive of the event.” Ouch. Feeling Ben Revere vibes. Hope he adds more muscle.

    Really low on McGarry at #25. Basically a 7th inning reliever type with risk on that too.

    Some good nuggets in the report. definitely worth a read.

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    1. Hey, if Ben Revere is Crawford’s floor, that’s not too bad. How is Crawford’s CF defense? Because if Crawford can slap .300 with 40 steals AND bring great CF defense, he could be a 3-4 win player and I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that.

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      1. His GB rate of approx 70% and to the left side of the diamond are a concern..
        And when he decided to work out on his own this off-season, hopefully he was endeavoring to add the muscle and strength to generate more power on his batted ball.
        IMO, if I were Dave D…I would throw a line out and see what kind of pitching prospect the Phillies are offered in return.

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      2. What does Matt say about some of the other over hyped HS names in that draft?

        Holliday is a stud but then you had Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green etc… Termarr looks like he might still be an above average MLBer but the others…Ouch if you were the guy that signed off on them.

        Cam Collier went shortly after JC.

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    4. Well I am a big Crawford and Miller guy. His portrayal of Miller as Kieboom is a bit scary. I never understood how Carter could put up the numbers that he did in the Minors and never even have a glimpse of that in the MLB.

      I guess the moral of the story is we must hope they (FG) are really wrong and the Phillies brass is right on these 2.

      If not we still have a scouting and drafting problem from a FO that we seem to heap a bunch of praise on.

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      1. Imo the criticism on Crawford (he’s not strong) is overly critical. He played last year at 19 years old. There is no reason to think that he can’t add weight and muscle. He has good genes and a big frame. He may need some more time to develop physically but I see no reason to doubt that it will happen.

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        1. Saw my work was linked so I stopped by. I wanted to point out that the primary criticism of Crawford has nothing to do with his strength. Everyone expects him to get stronger and most (including me) were pleasantly surprised by his exit velocities (especially the high end). The criticism has to do with the swing and why it generates a high amount of ground balls including the fact that it is chopping down and he is late because the swing is handsy and he list to pitch recognition. This is much different than the critiques of Bergolla where the actual measured contact numbers were unplayably low and he will need to add more strength than some project him to.

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          1. I wasn’t responding to your post on Crawford. I have not read it. I was referring to the MLB criticism.

            As for his swing plane, that is also very fixable. He is an elite athlete with exceptional hand eye coordination. Let’s see his progress over the next few years.

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            1. Hopefully he can adjust his swing plane and swing approach. There was a really good article by Alex Coffey in the Inquirer about Walton and Saltiban and how the team is working with them to developing their hitting skills. As far as the question about when we will start to see later round picks from the new regime – I love what they are doing now, but we will have to see. I think, by the end of 2025, we will have a pretty good idea how the new drafting approach is working – but I really love it and I think Rincones and Rincon (oddly similar last names, eh?) may be the first two products of the adjusted drafting and development efforts. I, for one, am very encouraged.

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