War, huh. What is it good for?

Other Stuff

Absolutely nothing, say it again.

I had a kickass lede regarding WAR and other new analytic statistics.  But, your recent WAR discussion kind of pre-empted that.  So, I put those paragraphs aside and give you this condensed version.  Sorry.  The delay led to the comments section growing much larger than intended.

WAR like ALL stats is not predictive.  It is a historical representation of baseball stuff that has already happened.  Unlike older stats that are pretty straightforward about what they convey, WAR is one of many new age stats that are a compilation of actual data and some additional stuff as baseball nerds try to come up with a single number to define the sport and compare its players.

Big week for baseball.  The winter meetings in Nashville start on Monday.  The Draft Lottery will be held on Tuesday.  The Rule 5 Draft will be held on Wednesday.

Hopefully, the players who are slowing down the free agent market reach agreements this week and release the logjam.  Otherwise, we are looking at another slow news week.

Summary of Available Money – over the 2024 CBT threshold of $237,000,000 (for 40 players).  Total Costs so far are $247,633,771.  Tax rate of 50% on $17,633,771.  Further penalties – 62% for exceeding $257M, 95% over $277M, and 110% over $297M.

  • Sunk Costs – $20,916,667 for player benefits, estimated salary for the 14 minor league players, and zero-to-three-year player bonus pool.
  • Guaranteed– $208,224,285 in real salary, $202,837,104 in Luxury Tax salary tied up in 14 contracts for 14 contracts – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, JT Realmuto, Zack Wheeler, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Taijuan Walker, Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Seranthony Dominguez, Jake Cave, Dylan Covey, and Garrett Stubbs.
  • Player Options – $1,000,000 for Dcott Kingery’s buyout, no other options.
  • Arbitration Eligible Players – $17,700,000 for 5 players – Ranger Suarez, Alec Bohm, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, and Edmundo Sosa.  Cave, Covey, and Stubbs settled and Josh Fleming was non-tendered and elected free agency.
  • Pre-Arbitration Players – $5,180,000 for 7 players at league minimum from among Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, Orion Kerkering, Yunior Marte, McKinley Moore, Nick Nelson, Luis Ortiz, Cristopher Sanchez, Rafael Marchan, Rodolfo Castro, Kody Clemens, Darick Hall, Bryson Stott, Weston Wilson, Brandon Marsh, Simon Muzziotti, Christian Pache, Johan Rojas, and Michael Mercado.

Rule 5 Candidates – All players listed below are eligible for both portions of the draft unless they are on the AAA roster (bold text) and ineligible for the minor league portion – LHP: Keylan Killgore, Taylor Lehman, David Parkinson, Tyler Phillips, Erubiel Armenta, Gabriel Cotto, Rafael Marcano, Jordi Martinez, Samuel Aldegheri, Jordan Fowler, RHP: Tyler McKay, Cristian Hernandez, Starlyn Castillo, Carlos A. Francisco, Dominic Pipkin, Andrew Schultz, Brett Schulze, Eduar Segovia, Noah Skirrow, Blake Brown, Gunner Mayer, Jean Cabrera, Eiberson Castellano, Jonathan Petit, Giussepe Velasquez, Ezequiel Ventura, Luis Alcala, Javier Fuenmayor, Oswald Medina, Carlos Betancourt, C: Aramis Garcia, Arturo De Freitas, Herbert Iser, Cody Roberts, Andrick Nava, Jose Colmenarez, Jorge Mendez, Jackie Pertuz, Brahian Silva, INF: Scott Kinegry, Nick Podkul, Esteban Quiroz, Chris Cornelius, Wilfredo Flores, Kendall Simmons, Rixon Wingrove, Pedro Martinez, Casey Martin, Erick Brito, Diego Gonzalez, Jehisbert Sevilla, Fernando Hernandez, Jarol Martinez, OF: Cal Stevenson, Matt Kroon, Carlos De La Cruz, Marcus Lee Sang, Baron Radcliff, Leandro Pineda, Ricardo Rosario, Jose Leanez

The IronPigs roster stands at 17 with the recent addition of Kendall Simmons.  As many as 21 players can still be protected.  The Simmons transaction was probably mistakenly reported by the MLB office that handles transactions.  Transactions setting AAA rosters prior to the Rule 5 draft have rarely been reported in recent years.

Trades v. Free Agents – With the Phillies having already exceeded the CBT threshold, trades become a more viable solution to add a major piece.  That’s not to say that the Phillies are done with free agency.  They are just not likely to sign a Yamamoto or a Hader no matter what the clickbait reporters say.  Nor are they in the trade market for a Trout or Soto regardless of what the clickbaiters say.  (Okay, maybe Soto.)  So what is likely?

  1. The Phillies would still like to add a reliever to replace Kimbrell either by free agency or trade.
  2. The Phillies will continue to add SP and RP depth at Triple-A.
  3. The Phillies would like to bolster the bench, hopefully with a RHB.
  4. The Phillies will continue to search for ways to upgrade around the fringes.  Aside from pitching, the corner outfield positions, center field, and third base could all be targeted.  Certain upgrades if via trade could require further moves to replace a traded player.
  5. The Phillies will try very hard to break into the Japanese free agent market short of Yamamoto.

My files are all up to date as of (12/2):

Important Dates

  • November 2: Trading resumed (the day after the conclusion of the World Series)
  • November 6, 5 p.m. EST: Deadline to make qualifying offers; Article XX(B) free agents can sign with other teams
  • November 7-9: General Managers’ meetings, Scottsdale, AZ
  • November 14, 6 p.m. EST: Deadline to add players to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule5 draft
  • November 14-16: Owners meetings, Arlington, TX
  • November 16: Phillies’ High-Performance Camps close
  • November 16, 5 p.m. EST: Deadline to accept qualifying offers
  • November 17, 8 p.m.EST: Non-tender deadline, if non-tendered a player becomes a free agent (this includes arb eligible players and those who have moved past arbitration)
  • December 3-6, 2023: Winter meetings, Nashville, TN
  • December 5: Draft Lottery
  • December 6: Rule 5 Draft
  • December 15, 5 p.m. EST: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period
  • January 8 – February 9, 2024: High Performance Camp in Clearwater
  • January 12, 2024: Salary arbitration figures exchanged
  • January 15, 2024, 9 a.m. EST: Opening of the 2023-2024 international signing period
  • January 29 – February 16, 2024: Salary arbitration hearings, Scottsdale, AZ
  • February 13, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers, and injured players
  • February 18, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for other players
  • February 23, 2024: Mandatory reporting date
  • March 1-10, 2024: Period for renewing contracts of unsigned players (pre-arb, the 0-3-year players) on 40-man rosters
  • March 20-21, 2024: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego in Seoul, South Korea
  • March 28, 2024: Opening day for all other teams, active rosters reduced to 26 players
  • June 8-9, 2024: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia at London
  • July 14-16, 2024: Amateur draft, Arlington, TX

Transactions

12/02/2023 – RHP Jousten Venegas assigned to DSL Phillies Red
11/19/2023 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Aaron Nola
11/17/2023 – LHP Josh Fleming elected free agency
11/16/2023 – DSL Phillies Red released SS Kilwer Colmenares
11/14/2033 – SS Kendall Simmons assigned to Lehigh Valley from Jersey Shore
11/14/2023 – LF Hendry Mendez assigned to Jersey Shore
11/14/2023 – SS Robert Moore assigned to Jersey Shore
11/14/2023 – Phillies traded 2B Oliver Dunn to Milwaukee for LF Hendry Mendez and SS Robert Moore

 

505 thoughts on “War, huh. What is it good for?”

    1. There is no draft for international players. The owners and players could not reach agreement on one during the last CBA negotiations.

      The 2022/2023 international signing period comes to an end on the 15th. The 2023-2024 international signing period begins on January 15th.

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        2. The 19 year old kid whom the Brewers just signed to an $82 million deal (Jackson Chourio) was the 16th rated prospect in 2021. They signed hiim for $1.7 mil. The scouting reports on him are unreal. 5-tool star. Certainly the Brewers think so too.

          We got Rickardo Perez (8th rated) that year for $1 mil. Perez seems like a decent prospect but he wasn’t even in our top 30 last year. Chourio was the 3rd best prospect in all MLB.

          I am not crying over spilt milk, but it really is remarkable at how close we have been to elite LatAm prospects without getting one. I really wonder if we threw a dart at the top 20 MLB international list the pat 20 years if we would have had more success?

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          1. Perez was actually on his way up…. until the disciplinary actions occurred.
            But like to think Eduardo Tait may be the one who will rise to the top from the Latin signings.

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            1. On Perez…I only assumed it was disciplinary issues…I may be wrong.
              It may have been something else, personal or family however.

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            2. FWIW, Perez was placed on the Suspended List. I researched what would get someone placed on this list as opposed to the Restricted List and other lists. The Suspended List is generally used for a breach of club rules. I don’t know the reason for his suspension, but I’m convinced he was placed on the list for a violation of team rules.

              Perez was activated recently. That is because the Suspended List is only available during the season. He had to be activated. It will be interesting to see what becomes of Perez next spring.

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  4. The Mariners made a trade with the Braves and I guess they are being proactive in shedding money of non performing players?

    The Braves have acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White are also headed to Atlanta in the deal. In return, the Mariners will receive right-handers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. The Braves have since announced the deal, which includes cash considerations headed from Seattle to Atlanta.

    Evan White signed a 6/24 deal before he made his ML debut and got hurt a lot. I guess the Phillies are not immune to giving out bad contracts like that.

    For saving around $29M (not sure how much Seattle is giving to the Braves), they gave up a pre-arbitration Kelenic who had a decent season and they essentially got back a 27 year old Kowar who hasn’t been good and Cole Phillips, a second round pick who’s recovering from TJ and hasn’t made his minor league debut yet.

    Feels like the Braves got 2 change of scenery players just for taking on money.

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    1. “Evan White signed a 6/24 deal before he made his ML debut and got hurt a lot. I guess the Phillies are not immune to giving out bad contracts like that.”
      ….Klentak and Dipoto had history together at one time as Angels…similar philosophy and minds may think alike.

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    2. Kyle Wright was also included in this deal making it a 3 team trade. KC ends up with Kyle Wright.

      Weird move for DiPoto but sounds like there is traction on the Mariners and a Bellinger deal so maybe he was just looking to clear some cash.

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      1. The Wright trade to KC for Kowar was a separate deal a couple of weeks ago. Kowar just didn’t last long in Atlanta and was included in the trade with Seattle.

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    1. …….”tis the season to be jolly…..doesn’t start til the 15th🥂!

      Kimbrel,….your funning us aren’t you?

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  7. Dave Dombrowski loved Jim Leyland so much he hired him twice. Once in FL where they won a WS together and again in Detroit where they came up short many times.

    Congrats Jim Leyland for your HOF inclusion.

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  8. Wasn’t it close that he was going to be hired here at one time? I don’t remember if that was at the time we hired Charlie? I don’t think there is any thought of bringing Kimbrel back. But, we have to add at least 1 high leverage arm. And, it won’t be Hader, IMO.

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    2. matt13…you did nothing wrong…..WordPress or perhaps your own system had an upgrade …and poof, the changes occur.
      Join the club.

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    1. If Rojas is the probable CF, then you know who’s in LF right?

      If Tampa has no choice but to trade Arozarena and they can get Justin Crawford, they would immediately dance a jig. That gives you an idea of what value Justin Crawford holds.

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        1. If the Phillies think that Rojas is part of the future, they will give him opportunities. If he hits well at Lehigh, what happens then? You just created a logjam trading for Arozarena when you didn’t have to, and Arozarena’s salary will likely go up to the $8M range. Brandon Marsh had a comparable season, he’s 2 years younger, and will likely make around $1M.

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    2. Arozarena is a good player but not a great player when you dig into his numbers. He is no way worth Justin Crawford.

      Plus and again you’re moving Marsh back to CF where he is just mediocre as a defender.

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    3. Man I love Arozarena, but he is not FA eligible until 2027. I can’t imagine Tampa giving him up unless the package is overwhelming with win now type players. There really isn’t many comparable trades of in-prime top players with 4 years of team control being traded. That said, if we wanted to go all in on him, the cost would look something like: Cristopher Sanchez and Rojas (or Pache).

      Side note, Chris Sanchez is a very, very valuable trade chip. He is just entering his prime years but is under team control until 2029. He was a 2.2 fWAR last year (sorry Jim, I like WAR stat, but I am a nerd), with a 1.047 WHIP and a nearly 1 K/9. That is a valuable pitcher. We bashed the prior FO for trading Mead for Sanchez, but I am sure that Tampa would do that deal in reverse now and we wouldn’t.

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      1. I can vividly recall the disgruntled fans in 2020 over that Rays’ trade when Curtis Mead started hot in the minors.
        Amazing how things turned out.

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  11. I know there was not an agreement reached regarding Intl Draft, but I thought there was a stipulation that MLB would be able to enforce one in the near future without an agreement reached? # or 4 of the top guys listed on MLB list have ML team hats on, is that likely their destination? Also, I thought I read Sal A is not in charge anymore. Who is in charge in LA? I know we are focusing more $$/resources into the Far East but with a new leader in LA is there a chance we see a different approach down there?

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    2. “# or 4 of the top guys listed on MLB list have ML team hats on, is that likely their destination?”…….tried to find out that information…..a lot more than 4, looks like over 20…….saw no Phillies hats on anyone.
      Weird that happened…..maybe their new way of sating who is the designated signing team.
      Jesse Sanchez use to do the international prospects…..I will have to see if he still does them and try to contact him.
      Odd that so many prospects have team hats and some have the team jerseys on also..

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    3. “#or 4 of the top guys listed on MLB list have ML team hats on, is that likely their destination?”…….weird, not sure about that….many have MLB team hats and jerseys on/

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  12. I feel like Whit Merrifield could be a good fit for this team. Not a huge mover of the needle but could give the Phil’s a lot of what they are looking for. Right Hand bat, Can play LF and spell Stott against tough lefties, Good rep/veteran, high contact guy, and can move around the field so he’s not really blocking anyone (Rojas if they decide more tuning is necessary. 2/18m …… would he take 1 yr? He also saves the draft capital as opposed to Aroz/Soto (no thank you)/O’Neill. Thoughts?

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    1. I feel like everyone thinks of Whit Merrifield as the player he was 3 or 4 years ago. He (a 94 OPS+ Player) is certainly not worth $9 million a year to be a backup.

      Guys like Sosa and Wilson and I’m loathe to say Castro can handle that for much less.

      Stott has entrenched himself an everyday player. Yea he will get days off here and there but that does not necessitate spending that on a backup and Merrifield really is the super sub that you remember defensively.

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    2. $9M for a backup? Are you serious?

      Sosa got into 104 games this past season because Harper wasn’t ready yet to play 1B. Most backups will be lucky to play 80 games. And I don’t think the Phillies want to go back to the super sub route.

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  13. For the most part the lineup is set unless they shake up the spots of Casty or Bohm but I don’t see that as likely. The edges of the roster could be upgraded and this would include the utility and back up players:
    Castro
    Clemens
    Hall
    Sosa
    Wilson
    Cave
    Muzziotti
    Pache
    Rojas
    I expect at least a move or two to change or add to them. Look for defensive upgrades and those who hit for contact/average to improve the two areas they are deficient as a team (defense & swing and miss especially outside the K zone).
    A Super Utility player would be ideal for the team.

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  14. I’ve posted this before ➡ I will be mildly shocked if Dave Dombrowski runs back the same starting nine and rotation in 2024. I believe he’s in the weeds ready to make some sort of significant move.

    I’m always interested in the rule 5 (for some reason). The Phillies have two spots currently open on the 40-man. Here are some guys I like:

    5️⃣ MD Johnson RHP Marlins (great body/can start or relieve/🔥)
    4️⃣ Cole Wilcox RHP Rays (big time prospect @ UGA/TJ has stalled his development)
    3️⃣ Aaron Schunk RHH 3Bman Rockies (have been a big fan since his days at UGA/mentioned him for the 2022 rule 5/wasn’t picked & went .290/.350/461 at AAA this season)
    2️⃣ Noah Song (Yes. Why not? A year later maybe take a flier & hope he’s closer to Naval Academy Noah Song)
    1️⃣ ⭐Carson Ragsdale RHP Giants (Phillies used a 4th round pick on him in 2020, but soon after dealt him for Sam Coonrod/has history of injuries but the stuff is legit/13.8 K9 @ USF & 13.3 K9 in MiLB)

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    1. Hinkie…..I kind of like your number 3….Schunk.
      Maybe a late bloomer….missing 2020 Covid year, messed up his development a bit.
      If Dave D decided to include Bohm in a trade, perhaps they could view
      Schunk as one to replace him at third base.
      I also liked Wilcox a few years ago…he could be another pitcher in the mix.

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    2. Not disagreeing, but I think all of this is timing. Phils are a very good team – and you can easily argue that Harper is here for all 162, Turner will have more complete Year 2, Stott and Bohm make development leaps.

      That said – you can never tun back the same team. JT’s getting a little older, Casty streaks, etc. Complacency is bad, and you can’t continue with the WC run. They need a way to get 7-10 wins better.

      My sense Dave waits to the dust settle with no splashy trades – but tactical improvements. Can see a Closer, #3 pitcher, RH OF bat.

      I look for these additions early January – groundwork this week, trades / signings in January.

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    4. I love Ragsdale as a rule 5 guy. Huge jump from A+ ball, but if anyone can do it a relief pitcher can.

      Strange that the Rockies (who are really bad and need a lot of help) would leave Schunk unprotected. They must really not believe that he can be a MLB hitter.

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      1. Romus … Asa Lacy is a blast from the past.
        I was never a huge fan, and have lost track of his career since he was drafted. Looks like he’s had a rough time staying on the field.

        I’ve been an Aaaron Schunk fan for years. He was available for last year’s rule 5, and wasn’t picked so it looks like most/all MLB front offices aren’t as optimistic on his future as I’ve been.
        There used to be a guy on Phuture Phillies who knew (or had some connection) to Schunk when I would post about him during his time at UGA. I think his name was Deacon or Deacon-something. If he’s still around, maybe he could post some thoughts on Schunk’s MiLB career to date.

        V1 … I would take a shot on Ragsdale’s arm talent. Brian Barber liked him enough to use a 4th round pick on him. Barber just got promoted (with Preston Mattingly) to AGM. Maybe Dombrowski relies on Barber’s vetting. Ragsdale was a 2-way performer early at USF. After returning from TJ, he gave up 1B/DH. His stuff took off. It’s too bad for him he’s suffered from some shoulder issues since the Phils traded him to the Giants. He had thoracic outlet surgery last year. It seems to have worked. Ragsdale made it back to the mound this summer & looked good. BTW … last winter I was all about Antoine Kelly as a rule 5 target for the Phillies. Kelly also underwent thoracic outlet surgery early in his pro career. The procedure worked for Kelly. He kicked butt this season (AA/AAA), and the Rangers added him to their 40-man a couple of weeks ago.

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  15. The Braves traded for Marco Gonzalez and it looks like they will try to move him. What I would like to know concerns his salary. He signed for $30M and 4 years. It was backloaded. He’ll make $12M this year. Does that mean that whoever he lands with pays the $12M but only $7.5 goes against the salary cap?

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    1. That’s a great question I am sure Jim or Romus will be able to answer…

      I believe when you acquire a player you also acquire the LT AAV plus the remaining salary which the trading team could always reduce by including cash in the deal.

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  16. The edges of the pitching where the team may try to upgrade:
    Bellatti
    Brogdon
    Covey
    Marte
    Mercado
    Moore
    Nelson
    Ortiz

    I’m sure at least 1 of the 2 open spots will be used on a pitcher to be added but these are the most likely to either trade or look at improvements.

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  17. dmar/Romus – Thanks for the clarification. Now I get back to Glasnow. The Rays signed him to a 2 year contract for $30M. They paid him a little over $5M last year and owe him $25M this year. To me, that’s crazy. If they trade him, the Rays got him for one year last season for $5M and whoever trades for him is stuck paying him $25M for this season. Albeit, the new team is only on the hook for $15M when it comes to the luxury tax but still……

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    1. ciada….but the 2024 salary can be used as leverage against the Rays…a two-edge sword in some respects….a lesser return for Glasnow.
      Rays will probably not pick up much , if any of his 2024 salary, so that can work against them.

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    2. My issue with Glasnow is only limited to his durability. He’s hurt a lot. Now last season he reached a season high in IP 120 and Starts 21 at 29 years of age.

      Would I want him today for one season? You have to tell me what its going to cost me in prospects or players.

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      1. If you want to know the next Zack Wheeler – odds are pretty decent that it could be Tyler Glasnow.

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        1. I thought about that. Wheeler didn’t pitch at all as a 25 and 26 y/o. His first season back was at age 27 and they limited him to about 86 IP.

          After that that he was pretty much a work horse!

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  18. I see Bowden is saying Yamamoto may get to 300M. He said it started at 200 or so. Thoughts. Does anyone think Phillies are still lurking around there?

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    1. The odds of the Phillies getting Yamamoto were slim anyways (the reason why has been debated here for years) but the second Aaron Nola re-signed, Yamamoto was definitely out no matter what anybody says.

      Yamamoto has age on his side but as we all know, pitchers get hurt a lot. Giving him $300M is a massive risk for any pitcher.

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    2. Yes. Not predicting Phillies get a deal done with Yamamoto, but they’ll be in the mix. Yamamoto’s stuff is pretty ridiculous. Dombrowski is not afraid to overpay for stars. However, if Yamamoto’s price hits 300M (and I have a hard time believing that), the Phillies would probably not go there.
      I still think the Phils make a good trade partner with Tampa for Tyler Glasnow if the Phillies POBO was willing to flip Cristopher Sanchez as part of a deal.

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      1. I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Sanchez. He’s a nice back end piece, but he’s not much more than that. I think Glasnow costs them Abel and more, which is why I don’t think they will do it.

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        1. Time will tell, and I hope I’m wrong, but I seriously doubt Sanchez ever turns into anything more than a #4 starter.

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  19. I just wondered. Many times, when you hear nothing there is something going on in the background. I do think the Phillies still need to make a couple key additions for next year. If you are all in, you are all in. It appears the Phillies are all in bringing a championship to Philly.

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  20. My opinion – Phillies play with the big guys now. With their rabid fan base, CBP, strong POBO, ownership, and the players on the team – players want to play in Philly. This makes me sense that the team will be in on several Japanese players and make a strong showing – and I wouldn’t be surprised if they signed Imanaga (I defer to Hinkie to correct me on the spelling) – I am referring to the lefty who faced Trea Turner in the world games. If nothing else they want to appear to be present in Asia. Nothing may come of it but I believe they are also being sought as a destination by the foreign players. (See Bosox player who worshipped Harper). Hinkie may get his wish of a Beni Hana restaurant on Ashburn Alley yet.
    I definitely think they are in on Yammamoto – but won’t win him.

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  21. Good post RU. One thing I think the Phillies have going for them right now besides lots of $$$s is the fact that they are ready to win now. To be honest they should have had the parade a few weeks ago. They were the best team. Just picked the wrong time to go in a slump and bp collapse as well. They should have won. Lots of the teams who are being mentioned in on these top guys are not nearly as close to WS ready as the Phillies are right now. Braves and Dodgers are but most of the others are a few players away IMO. That can change with a few signatures on a check but will have to see there. I do agree that Philly right now is a destination for some of these guys at this time. We just have to wait and see.

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    1. Hey Don, made it to Lakeville IN for the Pup this morning. Just below South Bend.
      9 hour ride to hotel in Lima OH yesterday from eastern NC. 2.5 hours this morning to Lakeville for the pick up. Now in hotel outside of Charleston WV after 7 hours in car. 6 more to home tomorrow.
      Pup is doing great, getting along with us and our other dog.

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      1. Denny, that is awesome. I missed your post yesterday. Did you get to Notre Dame? South Bend is just about 2.5 hours from here at Arcadia.
        Seems like the weather here has been fairly good so hope your drive went well. Sounds like the pup has found a great home. Have fun. Our kids are gone but we have 3 dogs and 3 cats. All 6 are way beyond spoiled.

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        1. I’m sure they are spoiled. I know that I was really close to ND but dogs were kinda iffy on the relationship. Wanted to get back home ASAP. Just got back to NC after a good night. We are praying to St Francis for intercession.
          Thanks Don.

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  22. I believe that whatever team is willing to pay Glasnow’s entire $25M could get him for a couple of lower level minor leaguers. The Rays are the type of team that just wants to reduce salary and search for diamonds in the rough.

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    1. Tampa is in contention mode right now. Because of injuries, they need rotation help. Cris Sanchez (a former Ray prospect) could be plugged right in, and help Tampa compete in 2024. It’s a good fit.
      Milwaukee looks like they’re headed into a rebuild. The Brewers are the club who would probably insist on Mick Abel in a Corbin Burnes deal.

      RU … Iron Chef Masaharu Morimoto for Director Of Clubhouse Food Services!!! Dombrowski has to do whatever it takes to have the Phillies become relevant in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes in 2026!!!

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  23. Romus. A quick question. Youngest grandson goes to classes held by Clay Dungan and Cole Barr. Believe both are in the Royals system. Dungan, I think played AAA last season. Think Barr is a pitcher but not sure level. Just wondered what nuggets you might find. Both are fairly local kids. About 25 miles away. Near Ball State though both went to Indiana State who has good baseball program Also grandson is going to Sandberg camp this Saturday at Westfield. So, we will see how that goes. This one is only 9 but is a better athlete than older one. Thanks.

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  24. Romus. I knew you would find info. Forgot, my son told me the pitcher went to IU. You are so good.
    Back in the day KC had a Baseball Academy. I was invited to tryouts on a couple of occasions in early 70s.
    Thank you.
    I have a question for you or anyone. Today when I post I get a message to sign up for the site blog. Does everyone get that?

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  25. I saw Phillies mentioned on this the other day about Clase of Guardians. Just saw on MLB that Guardians are listening for both Bieber and Clase. What would it take to land Clase? He is really good. Any thoughts?

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      1. Maybe so, and I get the Clase has great stuff, but there is no way I make that trade. Abel, to me, is ridiculously underrated on this site, has incredible stuff and was on the verge of a big breakout to end last season. I am not trading him unless I get an offer I can’t refuse. I can refuse the Clase offer.

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  26. Thomson on MLB Now said there are discussions about the lead off spot and Stott was in consideration for that role in 24.

    But He falls back on it quite a bit when challenged that technically you only lead off once a game and that they have won a decent amount of games with Kyle at LO.

    I would have challenged him on that because reality is they won 87 and 90 games and it caught up to them in the WS last year and the NLCS this year. I believe he believes certain things work better than they actually do.

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  27. v1, do you think the Phillies will look into Clase? Do you think Kerkering and Abel are too much of an ask?
    Romus…I still have issues with Schwarbs as the leadoff. But I will be surprised if it is not the same as before.

    Like

  28. The 2024 draft order is set:
    1. Guardians
    2. Reds
    3. Rockies
    4. Athletics
    5. White Sox
    6. Royals
    7. Cardinals
    8. Angels
    9. Pirates
    10. Nationals
    11. Tigers
    12. Red Sox
    13. Giants
    14. Cubs
    15. Mariners
    16. Marlins
    17. Brewers
    18. Rays
    19. Mets
    20. Blue Jays
    21. Twins
    22. Orioles
    23. Dodgers
    24. Braves
    25. Padres
    26. Yankees
    27. Phillies
    28. Astros
    29. D-backs
    30. Rangers
    31. D-backs
    32. Orioles
    33. Twins

    Like

      1. Denny…..some teams pass and do not pick, sometimes over 1/3rd will pass.
        Phillies may not even pick with two open 40 slots…they may be keeping those two open for free agent signings.

        Like

          1. Denny, looks like you made it home. I just replied to your post from yesterday morning up above. I cannot believe I missed it.

            Like

      3. 2022 Eric Brown Jr., SS, Coastal Carolina (SC)
        2021 Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park HS (MD)
        2020 Aaron Sabato, 1B, North Carolina (NC)
        2019 Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State (CA)
        2018 Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL)
        2017 Brendon Little, LHP, State College of Florida, Manatee-Sarasota
        2016 Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois
        2015 Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg (PA) HS
        2014 Luke Weaver, RHP, Florida State
        2013 Phillip Ervin, LF, Samford

        Like

    1. I think it’s about right and it’s not light all because: (a) Soto is a free agent the next year; and (b) he’s going to get a big pre-arb contract – projected to be around $33 million or, in other words, $7 million more than the second-highest paid player on the team. Whether he is worth that for one year depends on your perspective, but he’s as good of a hitter as there is in the game and he will hit a lot more outside of San Diego. His OPS outside of San Diego last year was 1.026.

      Like

      1. I meant to say $7 million more than the currently highest paid player on the team – at that number Soto becomes the Phillies’ first $30 million a year player.

        Like

      2. Sounds like Soto is going to the Yankees for King and Thorpe both are really promising young starters. I actually like Thorpe quite a bit.

        Yankees also added Verdugo who was on the outs with Boston.

        Like

        1. If Trent Grisham goes to the Yankees with Soto, perhaps Verdugo is shipped to the Padres also, in that extensive package deal.

          Like

  31. Looks as though Orioles have added Kimbrel. They must not have watched the NLCS. I would guess he will do fine during the beginning of the season. He seems to have done that the past few years. Then he wears down. One of the things that always bothered me was his delivery was frequently all over the place.

    Like

  32. Rumors are the Phils are signing Joc Pederson. Hmm . . . since the title of this thread is “WAR,” let’s look at Joc’s recent results: WAR of 0.1 in 2021, 1.3 in 2022, and 0.6 in 2023. That is . . . not good. I mean, if the planned role is solely as a lefty pinch hitter a la Matt Stairs, I guess it could make sense. Joc can no longer play defense.

    Fun fact: as a senior in high school, Joc was the WR1 on the football team, at that time better than the WR2, a junior named Davante Adams.

    Like

  33. If the Yankees get Soto, he plays LF. Verdugo plays RF and Judge takes over CF full time. Judge is an excellent RFer but just average in CF. To boot, the Yanks go over the luxury threshold by a good bit.

    Like

  34. Pederson can flat out hit – but where the heck does he play on this team? Why would he come here when he could go someplace else as a full-time DH? Not seeing how this would make sense, but DD sometimes loads up in a particular area.

    Like

    1. Yes he can hit….just not against LHPs, career slash 209/293/329.
      My question exactly…….where does he play!
      Unless Dombrowski has a future trade in mind involving other players, then why JocP.
      Personally would have liked Kiki Hernandez.

      Like

      1. Only make sense if he has a trade in the works to move either Castellanos or Schwarber. He’s a LF hitter who can play LF poorly but doesn’t fit the current roster both positionally and as a left-handed hitter.

        Like

        1. on second thought, they could move Marsh to CF and user Pederson vs. RH pitching in LF with a RH option as a partial platoon.

          I don’t like the idea but it would be an offensive upgrade with the team becoming very left-hand dominant.

          Like

        2. Yeah…overall makes no sense, forcing Dombrowski to make trades that are improbable……also probably just something someone threw against the wall hoping it to stick.

          Like

  35. Mets’ Steve Cohen flew to Japan to meet with the Yamamoto people…..hope another team steps up before Cohen writes any checks.

    Like

  36. Todd Zolecki is reporting not only have the Phillies not signed Pederson, they haven’t even talked to his camp this off season. We can’t read anything into a players instagram post.

    Like

  37. Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft completed. The Phillies had 2 openings on their 40-man roster. They chose to pass. Only ten players were selected. None from the Phillies. Different story during the minor league portion.

    Like

    1. I’m wondering if this is a result of teams promoting players faster than ever and knowing way before hand whether or not the player is good.

      Like

  38. The minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft saw over 60 players selected.

    The Phillies lost 4 pitchers – Rafael Marcano, Keylan Killgore, Carlos Betancourt, and Blake Brown.

    The Phillies had 5 openings on their AAA roster and selected 5 players – catchers William Simoneit (OAK), Luis Caicuto (ARI), Carson Taylor (LAD), SS Trevor Schwecke (TOR), and 1B Bryce Ball (CLE).

    Like

        1. Turns 21 in the spring….so he will have to be a long term project, starting a little older than most finally coming out of the DSL

          Like

          1. The guy from pirates bednar. I think that’s his name. What would it take to get him.Really has good numbers. Would pirates take young controllable prospects for him ?

            Like

            1. rocco….he is good, and also controlled for three more years.
              Yes…..will take some prospect pain to endure, in order to get him. Hard to believe he pitched at Lafayette College PA.
              Why not just sign Jordan Hicks and save the prospects!

              Like

          1. My bad, I saw he was on Dbacks Red and Black teams and assumed he wasn’t stateside.

            He played 3 years in the ACL which is a lot. I hope he gets added to Clearwater to start.

            Like

    2. Strange occurrence……DBU….from Darick Hall to Bryce Ball…looks like Darick may finally move on, hopefully to greener pastures, as Bryce steps into the Phillies org. to fill the void.

      Like

      1. The two MiLB rule 5 selections that stand out to me are Bryce Ball and Will Simoneit.
        Ball was briefly a big time prospect in the Braves system. As a matter of fact, Ball helped Atlanta win the WS in 2021 when Alex Anthopolis flipped the 1Bman for Joc Pederson a month-and-a-half before the trade deadline.
        I wrote about Simoneit before the 2020 draft. https://phuturephillies.com/2020/06/07/2020-draft-discussion-june-10th-and-11th/#comment-499263 He’s a below average defender, but can swing the bat a little. He was a popular teammate at two schools (Cornell & Wake Forest).

        Kind of surprised the Phillies picked no MiLB pitchers. Can never have enough arms, and the Phillies have done a nice job of developing hurlers under this regime.

        Like

        1. I think of the two open 40 spots, one for sure will be a pitcher….Shota Iman. maybe, Hicks maybe.

          I see Kimbrel is headed south down I95 to Baltimore.
          Hope he helps the Os.

          Like

  39. Soto is going to be a Yankee & it looks like the Padres are getting quantity and not quality. What would have been the Phillies equivalent to this ?

    Like

    1. I’m assuming that King and Thorpe are the centrepieces of the deal. I think a comparable start would be Abel and Kerkering.

      Like

      1. Really? I disagree. Thorpe is the highest ranked prospect among
        Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and Kyle Higashioka. He barely made MLB’s top 100 at #99. He’s the Yankees #5 prospect. Randy Vasquez is the Yankees #13 prospect. Brito was part of the Yankees’ rotation, King pitched out of their bullpen, and Higashioka started about 90 games for the Yankees.

        Abel is MLB’s #45 prospect and Kerkering will likely make the top 100 next season. I think any trade starting with Abel and Kerkering had better be for a star player under contract for more than one year.

        However, the Padres have a lot of holes to fill. One of Walker, Suarez, and Sanchez could be the equivalent of say Brito. Statistically, Hoffman and Stram are close comps to King, but either Dominguez and Soto are closer in age. McGriffey is our #5 prospect like Thorpe. Our #12/13 prospects are Boyd and Caba although Vasquez is a pitcher. Go to #14 and offer McGowan? The best we can do for Higashioka is Marchan. The Padres also have a hole at 1B, Hall?

        So, for one year of Soto how about Suarez, Dominguez, McGriffey, Marchan, McGowan, and Hall? That’s six, and I think it’s too much. But, I really hate losing McGowan and Suarez.

        Like

    2. Oh, duh, I came about this from the wrong direction. The quantity v. quality comment made me think of the time when the Phillies in the Padres role traded Hamels and Diekman to Texas for Jorge Alfaro, Alec Asher, Jerad Eickhoff, Matt Harrison, Jake Thompson, and Nick Williams.

      Like

        1. Alf…in retrospect, in the package help begat JTR, and the Marlins wanted a catcher in the transaction.

          Like

    3. This trade is nuts. Y’all don’t seem to like baseballtradevalues.com but their system puts Soto’s value at 80 million with who they got back. They have King valued too high IMO. He only proved to be a good starter for 9 starts so far.

      Yankees think they can sign Soto for like 28 mil a year tops? He is the best left handed hitter in baseball, but if he wasn’t a cancer in the clubhouse and lazy one would think the Padres would have done whatever it took to sign him.

      Soto at #2 and Judge at #3 is definitely awesome for the Yanks.

      Like

      1. Beyond Judge and Soto – ok, maybe Gleyber Torres, they still have those 3 and the 6 dwarfs. Judge will likely hurt himself again somehow, Stanton is already on the DL for the rest of the year and bingo – Soto walks alot on his own as nobody pitches to him. They aren’t finished but they are not even in the top 12 teams with this roster – even now.
        I am not a big Soto fan because he looks lazy and lackadaisical – he isn’t as good a hitter as he was when he was 20 years old. What this team really needed was an Albies, Trea Turner, McClain of Cincy, type of player – power and speed.

        Like

  40. Is Scott Boras talking extension to Harper’s contract beyond 2031?
    …..”Bryce has certainly expressed to them that he wants to end his career in Philadelphia,” Boras said (via ESPN). “I’ve certainly told Dave I think Bryce is a franchise player. … He came there for the fans. Apart from my advice, he goes, ‘I just want to go and make sure I can recruit players in Philadelphia, let the fans in Philadelphia know that I’m going to be there for the duration, that I am committed.’ I think he’s been an important voice for them to attract major free agents.”

    Like

  41. I guess if you are the Yankees you can convince yourself Soto is worth the $30+ million you have to pay him and then imagine what he will cost beyond this season.

    The Friars tried to pretend that they were weren’t painted into a corner. A decent return for a great offensive player on a 1 year rental. While pretty good King and Thorpe aren’t likely to morph into dominant TORs but they project to be decent enough to stay in a rotation for quite a while.

    When I think of Soto I can’t help but think of Bobby Abreu. Supremely talented offensively but a bit of an enigma.

    Like

    1. I do not blame Yankee fans if they may be wary Soto may end up being their next Jean Carlo Stanton. with an albatross contract.

      Like

      1. If I were a Yankees fan I wouldn’t worry about Soto the player. Its hard to tell how much of his antics rub his teammates the wrong way and if he matures out of that he’s quite the prize.

        There are a lot of really good players that have already changed hands or are about to which means a lot of teams are going to get better while some take a few steps back.

        Snell and Montgomery have yet to sign. The DBacks just landed EROD (another talented enigma)

        Ohtani is going somewhere, so is Yamamoto. Its an exciting time to be an MLB fan.

        And with a balanced schedule we will get to see all of these teams and their additions.

        Like

    2. The Yankees had to make a splash and trading for Soto was just that. Of course the pressure is on the Yankees to give him a long term deal so we’ll see what happens there.

      With the projected arbitration salary of Soto, Cots is projecting the Yankees to have the highest payroll in baseball. They will also add to this if they sign Yamamoto. The Phillies are currently 3rd in payroll.

      Like

  42. Is Scott Boras talking extension to Harper’s contract beyond 2031?
    Boras is talking about Harper’s situation now as a Phillie and he loves it here…Boras laying groundwork for another negotiation it appears.

    Like

  43. So basically Arizona signs the lefty Eduardo Rodriguez for a similar amount of money – 80 mill + an option to make it 99 – that Phillies paid Walker. Actually I would say they are very similar. Price of pitching continues to climb.

    For all those doubting the Tampa trade for Sanchez – if he even pitches 15 games a year he is now worth about $10-12 mill. The infielder they gave up doesn’t have a position and is one of six players vying for a spot in Tampa’s infield. Who knew ??

    Like

    1. The whole Walker thing is so peculiar that if I give it any amount of thought I get really annoyed….

      Like

      1. After one season, Dombrowski’s decision to let Zach Eflin (3/40M) walk & replace him with Taijuan Walker (4/72M) has proven to be regrettable. May have cost the Phillies a second straight pennant. Although, I place most of the blame on Phils batters’ (Turner/Castellanos/Realmuto) inability to stay within the K-zone late in the NLCS.

        Like

        1. Eflin wouldn’t have made a difference in the playoffs. The starting pitchers weren’t the problem. The hitters getting shut down and Kimbrel getting lit up were the issues.

          Like

  44. I can’t believe we haven’t snapped up Robert Stephenson. He’s the best available relief pitcher nobody talks about.

    I don’t know what the Rays pitching lab is or does but they scooped this guy up from the Pirates and turned him into an elite strikeout guy. His peripherals with the Rays after they got him were outstanding.

    .678 WHIP over 14.1K/9 is ridiculous. That’s better than Hicks, better than Bednar, better than Clase and yes better than Hader.

    I’ve no reason to think he won’t be able to take what he learned and ride it out.

    Like

    1. The money for relievers are skyrocketing as well. I thought the Phillies giving Alvarado 3/22 was a lot for a reliever last year. Now, if you throw 95+, you’re getting 3/30 just like that.

      Like

    2. darmar – On Stephenson, I completely agree with you – unless teams don’t like the fact that Tampa turned him into a monster and there isn’t enough
      data beyond one season ? Meanwhile half of all the teams appear to be after Hicks.

      Like

  45. The difference between Eflin and Walker is/was Thomson didn’t hesitate to use Eflin in the ’22 playoffs where as Walker didn’t even get a sniff of action this past year.

    Like

    1. Because of his sniff-less play off event…and the shortage of starting pitching…I expect Walker to be a subject of trades talk this off-season.

      Like

    2. Can’t believe we are still crying over the whole Eflin/Walker thing a year later. They didn’t resign Eflin due to concerns about his ability to stay healthy. That he managed to pitch a full season for first time since 2019 was good fortune for both Eflin and Tampa.

      Instead, they signed Walker because he had been able to stay healthy the previous 2 years and did so again in 2023. He gave them what was expected, 170 innings with good numbers as the #4 starter and they aren’t trading him in 2024.

      Eflin threw a total of 2 innings in the NLDS in 2022 so it’s not like he was a key cog in winning that series.

      Like

      1. Note: How did Eflin do in his playoff start for Tampa in 2023? Don’t think that effort would have helped.

        Like

      2. Actually, true to form, Eflin did visit the injured last season. He was on the list from April 8th thru April 23rd with lower back tightness.

        Now, Eflin did make 31 starts in 2023 as did Walker. And he did pitch 177.2 innings, 5 more than Walker.

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  46. I didn’t see anyone crying about Eflin but since you mentioned it his season was exceptional compared to that of Walkers in every metric at a fraction of the cost.

    Likely due to the fact that the Rays know something that many other orgs don’t about fixing certain guys.

    And given that we’ve maxed out our payroll to the extent we have it would be nice to have some folks in personnel who know how to get more out of some players for the $$$ than one might otherwise expect.

    Like

    1. huh. The only thing they got out of Eflin was a healthy year. Not sure that had anything to do with “fixing” him since he wasn’t broken while with the Phillies.

      I like Eflin and by all accounts so did the Phillies but I understand the rationale for moving on based on his previous 2 seasons health-wise.

      As far as getting more out of players, how did Sanchez do this year after they got him from the Rays and “fixed” him? He seems to have been good value for the $$$$.

      Like

      1. Eflin had a 3.5 WAR season; He made 31 starts 17 of which were rated QS his WHIP was also the lowest of his career 1.024 and his K/9 was the highest of his career 9.4 (not counting 2020)

        Sanchez was great I don’t dispute that but he was really an after thought. It’s not like they believed in him with any conviction.

        They started the season with Falter in the rotation and when he stumbled they traded him and tossed it to Chris. All the credit to him he got his opportunity and he seized it.

        Like

        1. rocco…Sanchez has evolve over the years in his usage.
          Now more change- ups and sliders as his out pitches…and for a LHP that is a vital weapon…….Percentages:
          2021…FB-.63.75…Sldr-17.93…CU-18.33
          2022…FB-60.60…Sldr-18.57..CU-20.83
          2023…FB-51.48…Sldr-22.87…CU-25.61

          Like

        2. And the batting averages against each pitch for Sanchez:
          2021-FB-.405…CU-.091…Sldr-.300
          2022-FB-.223….CU-.208….Sldr-.303
          2023-FB-.300…CU-.148…Sldr-.195

          Like

    2. How quickly we forget. The Phillies didn’t want to give a multi-year contract to a pitcher who had trouble making it to the mound. Eflin also wanted starter money and the Phillies weren’t ready to discard the option of using him out of the bullpen.

      We all understood this last year. The fact that Eflin had one good season at the start of his new contract doesn’t change the reasons that precipitated the separation. Nor does it make the Phillies wrong for the decision they made. Now, of course, if Eflin has 3 good seasons, that still doesn’t change anything.

      Like

      1. I agree. I think the Phillies understood his upside, they were just worried about the knee and how could they not be worried? Year after year, it was a problem with him losing long stretches of time with the resulting gaps opening in the rotation – it was a problem. Whatever you might think about Walker (he has his pluses and minuses to be sure), the guy was and is a work horse, which has a LOT of value for a good offensive team. Walker keeps them in games, eats innings, and racks up regular season wins. He’s a little pricey for his limitations, but that’s his job and he does it pretty well.

        Like

  47. Erick Fedde signed by the Pale Hose (as Red Barber used to call them) for 2-$15M after a great season in Korea. Was hoping the Phillies might sign him.

    Like

    1. Phillies have two slots open…one is for a pitcher I assume…..and possibly just on a one year contract for a reliever….that limits the field since many of the younger variety ( 31 and under) may want that 2 or 3 year deal.

      Like

        1. Granted those six could be DFAed without too much angst from the fan base, however the Phillies must think they serve a purpose for them to be on the current 40 right now.

          Like

  48. Yep…though with Darick Hall wish they just let hi m go and let him try to hook on with a team that he would have half a chance of getting some service time. I realty thought with them getting Bryce Ball, basically same type player as Darick hall but 3/4 years younger, they would let Hall go.

    Like

    1. I doubt Brewers take on Rojas, since they just signed long-term Jackson Chourio to play CF and have Yelich and Frelick for the other OF positions..
      May have to substitute another positional prospect like an infielder or a
      catcher.
      But I would go for it.

      Like

        1. I think I would…Cease has two more years controlled, and I just have to believe this last season was just a slight blip on his resume.

          Like

    2. The Brewers? Having seen the Soto package, this seems light. I think the Phillies would do this. I hate losing Rojas, but Pache can play CF. I would keep Marsh in LF. Burnes replaces Sanchez in the rotation. I’m not as high on McGarry as most here are. Although, I’ve heard he is throwing better at Cressy in Miami. By better I mean better command.

      I had heard earlier that a Burnes for Bohm+ was discussed. He might be an upgrade to Monasterio who is also their backup SS and depth at 2B. Marchan would likely not be a good piece since the Brewers have soon-to-be 26-year-old Contreras as their starting catcher.

      So, Bohm, Sanchez, and McGarry for Burnes? That creates a hole (a bigger hole some might say, not me) at 3B. Probably still light. Might need a sweetener.

      Like

        1. That was one plan. Initially, I wasn’t sure that Chapman was an offensive upgrade. I’m still not. But, I’ll agree that Chapman would shore up the infield defense.

          The problem here is that Burnes and Chapman add about $40M in salary to the CBT AAV while removing 2 low-cost players and their less than $5M in salary. That would bring them up to roughly $288M in CBT AAV. That blows past the 3rd tier and brings them within reach of the 4th and final tier. Hey, it’s not our money.

          Like

          1. Chapman would be a major defensive upgrade but otherwise doesn’t really fit.

            As Jim notes, the $$$ is an issue. He’s also a left-handed bat in a team that is already overly lefty dominant. He’s also a major strikeout machine is a team with too much swing and miss already. His overall offensive numbers are trending in the wrong direction as is his age.

            It’s already a question if he would be an offensive upgrade today and I suspect his offense will only continue to regress.

            Like

            1. 1. Chapman is a right handed hitter, not a lefty.
              2. It is true that he has a higher K rate, but also nearly double the walk rate, which is why his OB% is (slightly) higher than Bohm’s. They have similar power, but it is much easier to hit homers in CBP than in Toronto. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors
              3. He is 30. He will still be in his prime years for at least 2 more seasons.
              4. He signed a 2 year $25 mil deal as a 28 year old coming off of a 4.1 fWAR season (sorry Jim). I don’t see why his contract would be that much more than 2/$25m as a 30 year old coming off a 3.5 fWAR season. That’s what I would target with him.
              5. For some reason we continually downplay the importance of defense on this blog. Defense doesn’t go in slumps. Saving a run is just as important as producing a run. Last year as 3rd baseman, Chapman was a +12 Defensive Runs Saved in 1,213 innings. Bohm was a – 10 DRS in 686 innings. Normalize Bohm for a full season of defense at 3B and that is a -18 DRS. That means that Chapman is worth 30 more runs saved defensively.

              net, net, Chapman and Bohm are very similar offensively and Chapman is much better defensively. I bet you can get him on a 2 or 3 year deal at a $12-$15m AAV. If we can use Bohm as a chip to get a major upgrade at SP, then it would be a big win.

              The money is the issue, but as Jim says, “hey, its not our money.”

              Like

            3. Correct that Chapman is a righty. Not sure where I got him being left-handed.

              You exaggerate a bit in that Chapman’s walk rate in 2023 was 10.7% while Bohm was 6.9% so not really close to double but you are correct that Chapman’s .330 OBP is slightly better than Bohm’s .327. Strikeout rates also significantly differ with Chapman at 28.4% with Bohm at 15.4%

              the difference for me (besides the big $$$ gap) is that Bohm is showing improvement as a hitter while Chapman is what he is and will most likely regress as he moves into his 30’s. Today the offensive #’s are close (I prefer Bohm’s profile of higher BA and less strikeouts) but in the next couple of years, I expect the gap to widen.

              I look at Bohm like I did Hoskins, he offers value to the team while his salary remains low. As he moves through arbitration and the $$$ increases, that dynamic changes.

              Defensive, it’s certainly not close with Chapman being significantly better. I just think the $$$ can be better spent elsewhere because I do not think the Phillies will move into the upper tax threshold by adding $35 million or so to the payroll.

              Like

            6. Chapman is trending downward while Bohm is going upward.
              Chapman might hit a couple more homers but his average over the past 3 years is averaging in the. 220s and is striking out near 200 times. His errors are going up and he is an expensive piece. Bohm struck out less than 100, hit in the. 270s and his fielding is getting better. Bohm is controllable and fits nicely into the personality of this team.
              Let’s put this to rest and put Bohm at third for the next couple years and worry about pitching.

              Like

  50. Yesterday’s Athletic had an interesting article on the importance of starting pitchers who are “innings eaters”. The article emphasized that these innings eaters are increasingly rare and thus more valuable in today’s game. That is why DD signed Taijuan Walker; it’s what he gave the team last season; and it’s why he isn’t going anywhere in a trade.

    Like

    1. 100% agreed. I don’t know why people here bash Walker. He was extremely effective in his role. 172 innings. 2.5 WAR (sorry Jim), 15-6 record as a 4th/5th starter. Very productive. That he didn’t pitch in the post season does not mean that he wasn’t valuable in his role.

      Like

  51. Romus, little grandson down at Sandberg camp now. I know Jim is not big on him but kind of cool for a little nine-year-old to be with a HOF player. My son just sent a pic. Lots of kids. Think it is 2 hours in length for the little guys.

    Like

  52. Romus, Jim. Thanks for comments. Jim, I had forgot that. The one thing I admired was that he went to the minors to begin his managing career. I like when a person works their way to something rather than it being handed to them. Romus I am sure he will. I still tell you I hit a home run off of Tommy Underwood. Also, may have Eddie Stanky autograph on package. Then again it may be his secretary. Romus, I watched the movie Hoosiers last night. I had forgot how good it was. They made it to be early 50s. I played late 60s but many similarities. A year ago, the guy who owns the Hickory bus and Hackman’s car had them at the State Fair right outside our stand. Of course, I have pics. My high school principal was one of the coaches in the movie.

    BTW Sandberg wearing his Cubs gear today. LOL

    Like

  53. Romus, my son just sent me a pic of him and grandson and Sandberg together.
    I would post it if I knew how to do it. But I do not.

    Like

  54. Wow, Harper was really cheap wasn’t he. Ohtani signs with Dodgers 70 mil avg for 10 years. This is nuts!

    Like

      1. Ohtani got twice as much (or close to it) as the highest paid players in MLB. Crazy and there are going to be some very upset owners over this. And the big question is: what the the 2nd best offer?

        Like

    2. This is straight up bananas. Dodgers are paying him to be a 10 WAR player EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Ohtani is 29. There is no way he’s going o live up to this contract.

      Like

      1. Unless they create a Japanese TV station and broadcast all the games to Japan and collect for that concession. This signing is all about how much revenue the player brings to the table.

        Meanwhile, the Angels look like a smoking pile of bricks from a Ukrainian building after this loss. I wonder if it will cause them to re-evaluate where they are and where they are headed ? Apparently – they are going to have to replace half of the facade of their stadium as it was festooned with Ohtani’s image all over. Which leads me to :

        Get ready for the Trout rumors to Philly all over again. How can their GM say he is 100% not for trade when they almost have no other recourse ? Smokescreen. I say it is all about the price. They might commence a rebuild asap.

        Scene 2 : almost any player in Japan who is anybody will now commence filings for a move to MLB. I think we will see many more Japanese free agents. Rocki Sasacki already starting to explore leaving Japan…..2 years or more earlier than anticipated – some sort of clause ?

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        1. Agree with RU. A Trout trade has got to be under consideration, whether this winter or next summer. Of course, Trout will have to either push for it, or agree to it.
          Yes, Roki Sasaki is the next Big Thing headed to MLB. However, I would be very surprised if he makes the move before 2026. If he waits until then, he would come as a FA (like Yoshinobu Yamamoto). If he arrives any earlier, he would be shackled with MLB salary steps (like Ohtani was): 3 years at league minimum, followed by 3 arb seasons before reaching free agency. Of course in the second scenerio, the team he signs with could extend him early … but MLB would police a blatant attempt to run roughshod over league rules.

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          2. Where will it end? This just shows there is a lot of money out there and a lot more to spend. We shouldn’t worry about contacts I guess.

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    1. Ohtani,,,,35WAR..batting plus pitching in 6 years.
      WAR what is it good for ….$700M.
      Of course it will be deferred for well over 10 years I assume…Dodgers need to have that done to avoid perpetual annual penalties

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  57. Hope this means more money for Marlins owner, Who just sits there getting paid, to have no fans, low payroll, in a town who doesn’t care about major league baseball. I will never understand why they have to have baseball in Miami,

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    1. Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi stated they offered the same exact contract as the Dodgers. Otani just wanted to play in LA

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  59. Bob D – being reported that Dodgers topped the next bid by 100 mill ? They were not going to be beaten apparently. But at this point because of the deferred payments, CA ‘s tax rates, etc. who really knows what it is worth ? Supposedly details to be released on Wednesday.

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    1. IMO, the reported $70M AAV against the lux tax has to be questioned.
      One player getting 25% of the threshold would be illogical from a business standpoint.
      Add in Freeman. Betts, Taylor and Muncy …$78M…together…..whoa.
      The other 35 players will stay have to get paid.

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        1. He only has three more years until free agency.
          Look at it another way…..he has played six years…….the first five year he would be controlled (3 first time contracts, and plus 3 arb years)….last year he would have stood to make $25 or $30M in his last arb year….and been a free agent now..his age 26 season, similar to Harper and Machado when they signed their big contacts in 2019.
          When the clock starts at age 20 for the players……thee is risk in those LTCs….Phillies more or less puckered out with Kingery and Odubel in those LTCs—the players won out financially.
          The risk goes both ways…Acuna should have realized that along with Albies when they signed.

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        2. He only has three more years until free agency.
          Look at it another way…..he has played six years…….the first five year he would be controlled (3 first time contracts, and plus 3 arb years)….

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        3. ….last year he would have stood to make $25 or $30M in his last arb year….and been a free agent now..his age 26 season, similar to Harper and Machado when they signed their big contacts in 2019.
          When the clock starts at age 20 for the players……

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        4. …..the is risk in those LTCs….Phillies more or less puckered out with Kingery and Odubel in those LTCs—the players won out financially.
          The risk goes both ways…Acuna should have realized that along with Albies when they signed.

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          1. Boras should have represented these Atlanta players. It is almost criminal what they pay Albies (7 per year till 2028) ; Acuna (17 per year until 2027 when he has a 10 mil buyout) ; Harris (8 yrs for 72 mill- doesn’t get paid until 2030) ; Strider (6 yrs for 75 mil – 2026 he makes 20 mill) ; Murphy ( 6 yrs for 73 mil). The only players getting paid are Riley and Olson. Great job by their GM if you can get away with it – and he did.

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            1. They get big pay days in their first 5 years upfront…who wouldn’t want that, especially if injuries should occur and derail development or stymie careers or they just regress.
              They are playing it safe.

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  60. Romus Question would you rather have Ohtani, or Swarber, Nola and Harper for the same money, if my math is right, Nola is 24 million, Swarber is 20, and Harper is 28

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    1. rocco……I prefer the three current Phillies.
      After his second TJ, I question how long he will be an effective pitcher into
      his 30s….though he has less than a total of 1100 innings pitched, the long term success rate is poor for 2nd time TJ pitchers.

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  61. I am rarely shocked by sports contracts, but I was shocked by this one (I though he’d get paid close to $55m AAV, or $60 m at most . It has an AAV of 62% more than any contract in the history of the game. Yes, I understand how good he is and I understand his unique two-way excellence. But Romus pointed out why the contract is so risky. Talk about putting all of your eggs in one basket – wow.

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    1. My guess the AAV , with the deferments, brings it in the area of $40/42M AAV for the first half of the ten years, and then climbs up to mid-to-upper 40s for the second half of the ten years. And the remaining parceled out over time after his retirement, assuming he does not play past 40 years old.

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      1. But do the deferrals change the AAV as it relates to their tax number? The deferrals will help with the actual payout for the Dodgers but doesn’t the contract actually count as $70m AAV vs the tax threshold?

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        1. I am looking to confirm this as well…

          Does the deferred money count:
          -towards the AAV?
          -the LTT?

          (Guessing) It sounds like the deferred money, lowers a players AAV, as it increases the number of years of the contract (700m-10 versus 700-20 yrs?) It also sounds like the LTT is applied to when the money is actually paid out.

          Best example we have that I can remember is the Nats. Speculating, but I don’t believe the players union likes deferred money, at it lowers players AAV, and we know thats not what they want.

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          1. But the deferrals really don’t extend the contract. Another Nationals contract for Scherzer is probably a better example. his Nationals contract include $15m per year deferred from 2022-2028. But he was free to sign with the Mets as a FA for 2022 so he’s getting paid both by the Nats (deferred) and the Mets (actually Rangers now).

            He can’t be under 2 active contracts, and I don’t think he’s counting towards the National’s tax threshold anymore.

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            1. Frustrating, not very clear, as it doesnt have the column for the LT.

              I’ll wait for a definitive answer. It makes me wonder how extending Harper, and deferrring his money might do to the payroll numbers. He might do it to keep Wheeler. I feel like Wheeler could break the bank if he hit FA. Sorry, shouldn’t use that expression after Ohtani. Thats better be the Ceiling for MLB Pay

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            2. 3up…..I think you are correct….and I can see the Dodgers doing something similar……one stipulation Ohtani had was to ensure his contract did not hinder the Dodger’s ability to maneuver under the lux tax threshold….in order to bring in, or for that matter, keep star players, so the team stays as winner. He said he wants to play on a winning team.
              The full $70M annual, …will not count against the luxury tax

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            3. What I’m seeing Romus is that the deferrals in Schertzer’s contract do not count vs. the tax meaning the Nationals LTT was the full AAV of his actual contract.

              I think that shows that Ohtani’s full $70m per season in counted against the Dodgers which is nuts. Can’t tell for sure until they get the full details from the deferrals in Ohtani’s contract.

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            4. 3up….you have to consider the “present-day value” of the contract….calculating how much a deal involving deferred payments would be worth if all of the money were paid in the present day — not in the future when inflation will decrease its overall worth. Two Dodger examples:

              Freddie F….$162M….deferred amt-$57M…pres.- day value-$148M
              Mookie….$365M…..deferred amt -$115M…..pres.- day value-$307M
              I cannot see the Dodgers incurring a lux tax hit of $70M for the next ten years….I think it will be in the $40Ms per year….manageable

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            5. 3up….you have to consider the “present-day value” of the contract….calculating how much a deal involving deferred payments would be worth if all of the money were paid in the present day — not in the future when inflation will decrease its overall worth

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            6. Two Dodger examples:
              Freddie F….$162M….deferred amt-$57M…pres.- day value-$148M
              Mookie….$365M…..deferred amt -$115M…..pres.- day value-$307M
              I cannot see the Dodgers incurring a lux tax hit of $70M for the next ten years….I think it will be in the $40Ms

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          3. Almost certain the deferrals have no effect on the AAV. It just saves the club some real cash to spend on the roster during Ohtani’s career. Should have no effect on calculating the luxury tax threshold.

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            1. Hinkie…..the contract deferred money, means the Dodgers won’t actually be paying him $70 million next season. This helps them avoid a large luxury tax penalty. Like I said Ohtani made that stipulation ..he wants to win…In other words, Ohtani will be paid well past the date his contract expires in 2033. …think Bobby Bonilla,

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  62. Just noticed CBS has Phillies at 5 in new Power Ranking after Ohtani and Soto. Were 3 prior. I do have a question. When I see things on MLB and basically anywhere there seems to be no mention to Phillies in any rumors. Now that may be good. But usually, you see DD mentioned with something going on. Still thinking a couple more key moves are in the works. Does anyone have any info or feeling what may be in the works in the next few weeks. Here in Indiana not much Phillies news.
    Denny. How is that puppy doing?
    Romus. I agree with something you mentioned above about 2nd TJ being a bigger risk. Lots of money if only a DH.

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    1. I’ll take 60-70%

      A spreadsheet of Tommy John surgery patients compiled by baseball analyst Jon Roegele lists 2,345 procedures…148 players who have had the procedure twice.

      “It’s more complicated,” said Yankees head team physician Christopher S. Ahmad of Columbia University, he added, “revision Tommy John surgery is having more success than has been reported historically in the past. We used to say that Tommy John surgery done a second time may have a 50% success rate. Now the success rate is improving, 60, 70.”

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      1. IMO, there are too many factors to consider when claiming success rate……age of the pitcher, how many innings already pitched, and just because he can pitch again does not mean success……gong from 99 FB velo to FB 95 velo may drop a pitcher from an ace to a mid-rotation guy.
        Then some guys just never come around to their prior self….like a Thor….and just after the one TJ surgery.
        We will see how Buehler comes back from his second TJ
        Dodgers took the gamble with Ohtani.

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      2. We are questioning the Dodgers logic for the big bucks to Ohtani; what happens if he is only a DH and a mediocre pitcher after recovery time?

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        1. What happens ………I guess that would be a prime example of buyer’s remorse. They took the risk….though they present day value of the contract will probably fall to between $400M and $500M…..the MLBPA will calculate the present-day value.

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    2. Don – I saw a report to help wet your whistle, that the Phillies were in talks for a significant player, no name of who… but KerKering was a player requested from the other team. Phillies passed.

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    3. Puppy is doing a lot better after day by day acclamation with older half sister. We had the other one since 8 weeks old and now 7 years old. Jealousy and toy/food protection; lots of monitoring but they are co-existing better day by day. Thanks for asking.

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  63. Tac. I can see the pass. I think in the playoffs he showed he can compete. Maybe Topper pushed a little too hard in the last couple games. But I do agree with someone who mentioned earlier they felt too many breaking balls were called. He has a really good fastball. Plus, he kept getting behind in the counts with breaking ball. If Phillies do not add a top end RBP guy Kerkering may play huge role next season.

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    1. Agree that they see Kerkering as a key piece of the pen moving forward and will be very hesitant to move him in a deal.

      Don’t think they handled him very well after his callup. They over emphasized his slider at the expense of not having him locate his fastball. Once the hitters started to sit on slider, he became afraid of the strike zone.

      His slider is the obvious out-pitch, but he needs to establish that he can pitch inside with the fastball when necessary.

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  64. Denny. We have 3. Big, mid-size, and a little Papillion. They have day to day issues but do ok. Glad to hear. Did you get to Notre Dame. I got on campus one night when we were playing a tourney in Mishawaka which is right next to South Bend.
    3up. I agree. It seemed Phillies handled him better in the Braves series. I was really surprised he was brought in when Phillies went up 1-0 in game 3. Think it 7th inning even. I would have gone with SerAnthony in that spot. Two pitches later it was tied, and I thought that was the key moment the Series got away from maybe a possible sweep to what we know happened.

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    1. Hopefully only 2 is our limit. Didn’t get to Note Dame. Only 2023 11 20 minutes south but last Tuesday it was a mixed rainy, snowy day and wanted to head back south as far as we could get in one day with 2 did in back seat. L. Got to Hurricane WV on 64 for the night.

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  65. The present value of Ohtani’s contract is something like $429 million:

    The $42.9 million annual figure is what the luxury tax calculation is based on. . Ohtani produced 6.0 WAR last year as a DH. If he can’t come back and pitch, he’ll likely produce 30-40 WAR over the life of the contract (assuming his hitting declines as he ages through his 30s). That won’t be a great outcome for the Dodgers. OTOH, if he can come back and pitch for 9 of the seasons, maybe he adds another 20-30 WAR, and produced 50-70 WAR overall, which would be a good deal . . .

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    1. Thanks for that information.
      I was in the ballpark as for the AAV
      However, since the threshold will increase every year…I would have adjusted the AAV upwards incrementally with the threshold increases…not sure the Dodgers will plan to do that.

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  66. My understanding is mlb still has to review and since these numbers are unprecedented they may or may not throw a flag. It seems to me if you can have these kinds of deferrals there is no longer a cap on salaries as you can agree to push everything out and lower your cost today based upon present day values. This only enhances the bigger teams – this is why Boras wants to renegotiate Harper contract ? Also – in the CA teams case, Otani may live outside of CA and avoid the heavy taxes – so why would he care what he makes today ?

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      1. Sure, on his current salary. But if he is getting paid in 2035 or 2045 or whenever he might be living elsewhere by then.

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        1. As long as the Dodgers hold his contract, he is an employee of a California company and will be liable for California state tax no matter where he lives.

          Another consideration is that Japanese players have to pay a 45% income tax back to Japan as long as they are still Japanese citizens. I used to work at the Rev, and I think I recall that taxes to a person’s home country will reduce or completely negate federal taxes. I think the top rate here is 37%, but rich people never, ever have to pay the full tax they should.

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          1. I’m not 100% sure of the above. I was in IT. My tax friends from back in the day are all retired now, too. So, they may be behind on any new rules and they were fed not state tax people.

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  67. So Otani is deferring $680 million until after the 10 year contract is completed. So he’s only going to be making $2 million a year for the next 10 years. How is this even legal?

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    1. Antitrust exemption. As long as the government gets theirs, baseball can make whatever rules they want regarding salaries, penalties, etc.

      Deferred money is nothing new in baseball. The Mets deferred $5.9M owed to Bobby Bonilla payable at just under $1.2M per year from 2011 through 2035. (Years and numbers may not be 100% accurate.) The Nationals never met a large contract they didn’t want to defer, Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer.

      The Dodgers are just doing a better job of deferring. Who knows what future CBAs will stipulate? In 10 years, we will have had 2 more CBAs. LT limits could likely go up. Penalties could be lowered or eliminated. Heck, maybe the whole system will be scrapped and replaced with some different nightmare. Or, maybe the block of cheap owners gets together and screws the Dodgers to the wall.

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      1. “The Mets deferred $5.9M owed to Bobby Bonilla payable at just under $1.2M per year from 2011 through 2035.”
        …interestingly, Steve Phillips had said Bernie Madoff figured it out for the Mets to do that and his ‘plan’ would be the Mets and the Wilpons will be making boatloads of money by deferring Bonilla’s contract out that far……then Bernie’s world collapsed along with the Wilpons

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  68. Don, bad news. DD and the Phillies are not working on anything big right now. Any rumors you hear regarding the Phillies in the coming weeks will undoubtedly be false rumors by agents trying to use the Phillies to get better deals and/or by national media looking for clicks.

    The Phillies still would like to improve on the fringes, add starting and relief arms, and bolster the bench. But, and this is a big but, they are only interested in one-year deals. It’s still too early in the hot stove season for players to accept such short deals, especially with the delay caused by the Ohtani watch.

    Look for the Phillies to start getting the deals they want after the new year when players start to get antsy. Of course, the type of player they get will not be movers and shakers, but they will be a slight improvement over the guys they replace.

    Now, the only way the Phillies consummate a big-name trade or sign a big-name free agent is if the other party is willing to accept what the Phillies are willing to pay. Maybe during spring training, a free agent will settle, but that’s not likely.

    So, I’m saying there’s a chance. No, I’m not.

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  69. If you really want to get sick/mad, I saw on social media that in the wake of the Dodgers paying Ohtani $2M/year and the resulting LT savings, the Dodgers are in hard for Yamamoto.

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    1. ” the :Dodgers are in hard for Yamamoto.”….I say, better the Dodgers than Steve Cohen and the Mets. I feared the Mets would get him.

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      1. I am confused. Just say the dodgers are sold in 8 yrs. First who assumes the deferred money? Second I have ten yrs of 46 million without that player.is that right?

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        1. rocco…. if a new owner comes on board…they assume the contract in its entirety or whatever remains of the contract…. caveat emptor.

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    2. Before the Dodgers had an AB in the playoffs last season they were down 6-0

      They will definitely be spending and probably trading for SP

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  70. Yeah, ESPN is reporting that Ohtani will get paid $2 million per year from 2024-2033, and that the remaining $680 million will be paid out from 2034-2043. The luxury tax AAV for the Dodgers for the next ten years is about $46 million per year. Another way to think of this contract is 10 years, $460 million, because that is what it is equivalent to, in terms of present value.

    Apparently Ohtani is currently making $45 million per year from endorsements (I hear he’s big in Japan), so he had the idea of deferring most of the money.

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    1. A pretty big blind spot by the MLB if you ask me. It essentially allows the Dodgers to reduce the AAV by 34%. A simple clause that states no more than X % of a contract can be deferred to reduce the LT would fix it.

      I heard the MLB also preferred he not end up in Canada for obvious reasons. The revenue he generates for the game stateside is enormous as opposed to if he played half his games in Toronto.

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      1. With the additional deferral news, all of this is now making sense and you could argue that he is being underpaid perhaps a little bit due to the time value of money. He’s got a contract with an effective AAV around $43-46 million. I always thought he would get paid around $50-55 m, which means he could be expected to average around 6-7 WAR per year – I think that’s a pretty good guess, even if he doesn’t play well at the end because when he hits well and pitches well, he’s around a 9-11 WAR player. Here, the Dodgers got him for an amount that is only slightly above his value as a hitter alone. Score one for the Dodgers.

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        1. Ohtani……brings in over $40M annually just thru endorsements…..expenditure of $2M a year from the Dodgers’ operating budget, is a good deal for both him and the Dodgers.
          Dodger dog prices will not go up…at least they shouldn’t because of Ohtani’s contract….US inflation is a different story.

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  71. Thanks Jim. Looks like I can just sit back and take it easy the rest of the year. LOL Actually, it did surprise me that daily there was no mention of Phillies on really any of the sites I get here. Now I know why. But many of the pundits mention that the Phillies are really pretty set to compete as they are right now. Like you said maybe a few changes here and there around the edges or if something falls to them. Saying is there are NO bad one-year contracts. BTW grandson did have an enjoyable time at Sandberg camp. They got a pic with Ryne so that is something he can always show to his buddies.

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  72. Based on the article on MLB trade rumors, today, deferral restrictions were/are wanted by MLB by opposed by the players union so doesn’t appear that the players have a problem with the process.

    Maybe this extreme use of deferrals will change that opinion.

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  73. Something tells me if we go back to 2024 with the same team as 2023, we’ll end up with similar (disappointing) results.

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    1. Harper would like to retire as a Phil. So rip up the current deal, tack on another $100m to his deal, defer the payments to 2035, lower the AAV under $20m. Gotta be some accountant out there that can figure this out with Boras

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        1. What the Dodgers did was brilliant – and – not in the best interests of the game – Where’s Bowie?

          Phils have to get bold.

          Dodger’s lineup is amazing – but they still don’t have pitching. Counting on the Phils to beat the Braves for a 3rd time in 3 seasons is not really a plan.

          Feeling very humble today after 2 weeks of Eagles failure and this Dodger nonsense.

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          1. Dodgers will stay have to honor the approx. $46M AAV…to the threshold. Unless they have the Steve Cohen mentality, they may not want to have to lose draft choices every year and international funny-money, by breaking the lux tax threshold.

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          2. I am not too worried about this. The bottom line is that Ohtani gave the Dodgers a discount of about $5-10 million a year in present terms (I expected he would easily get $50-55 m per year). As for concerns about the Dodgers “gaming” the AAV, well, actually, they really didn’t. The discounted value is what it is. $680m received 10 to 20 years from now, just isn’t worth anywhere close to that in current dollars. While I do think we may see more of these deferred comp deals, the Ohtani deal is likely to remain an extreme outlier.

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      2. My question is whether you can use a contract extension to modify the current AAV of an existing deal. If so, then extending Harper now would definitely make sense. So weird, though, extending a player who has 8! more years left on his deal and will be 38 when it ends. But he’s a unicorn and, for that reason, I would certainly entertain the possibility.

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        1. If any extensions comes his way…probably a short one, three years I would think. Anyways, by then he more than likely will be a Vegas As.

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        2. Isn’t this financial manipulation a way to manage payrolls to spend more money. Why didn’t teams think more creatively in the past? I know about Bonilla but it makes sense even on bad contacts. Like using credit cards or government budgeting.

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    2. If by similar results you mean they will again play in the NLCS I’ll take it.

      Not sure who people think they are going to sign that will make a difference in the outcome from last year. They lost to the D-backs because their $$$ bats went cold and Kimbrel crapped game 4.

      The “closer” is gone so that won’t happen again but I’m fairly certain they aren’t getting rid of Harper/Schwarber/JTR/Turner/Castellanos, etc. so they need their hitters to hit better in playoff games.

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      1. ‘Running it back’ never works. You always nee to tweak something. Yes you are counting on Stott’s and Bohm’s continued development.

        LF / RH bat is a huge hole. Who bats 4th? Its not JT who is getting older, playoffs showed it’s not Bohm.

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  74. Seems like the Phillies … could theoretically do the same for Hader or Bellinger if they would take the deferred money

    I’m guessing Harper will now, which is why he is clamoring for an extension.

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    1. Tac3….most players do not want to defer…want to claim and invest their salaries in the present day.
      Ohtani already makes over $40M in endorsements….125M Japanese probably buy his jerseys and purchase whatever he endorses now……baseball’s salary is probably his part-time hobby to him

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  75. Jim, just for a funny. I know you get on these Insider guys. See article on CBS that has teams Yamamoto has met with so far. Says that Heyman say Dodgers and Phillies are still in the mix. Said he met with Yankees, Mets, Giants and may with Blue Jays and Red Sox.

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    1. Don…if Phillies could find some team to take Tai Walker and his entire contract…..then maybe Yamamoto could be a consideration signing.
      But what team would do that…without say, a Mick Abel tied to the trade!
      Maybe a Dodger team.

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    2. Don, the Phillies were in on Yamamoto and most of the NPL pitchers. Once the dollars and years surpassed what the Phillies were willing to invest, they pulled out – Yamamoto early on and the rest later. The final one they were interested in fell off last week. They wanted to crack the Japanese market and were willing to go a little more than the early projections. But, the cost just got too expensive.

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      1. Jim, makes sense to me. The numbers are just crazy. I just think how much some of these guys are getting and they struggle to make 4 or 5 innings. I do agree the Phillies probably need to get involved at some point with that market. Thanks.

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  78. Romus, funny you mention Dodgers. They saved 680M for a few years. LOL
    Jim mentioned maybe some one-year deals. I am starting to see some of those on the scroller on MLB Network.

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    1. Yeah….teams , especially small market teams are doing a lot of that.
      Also more evidence that the drafting of pitchers is a crap-shoot….in 2018 Royals had 5 of the top 58 picks….took all pitchers…college and HS mix……none-ages now 23 thru 26- really panned out as of now.
      So as the expression goes…a bird in the hand, is worth two in the bush.

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  79. You are so right especially in relation to pitchers. It only takes one pitch for an injury or simply some do not pan out for whatever reason. I was no medical expert when I hurt my rotator cuff. But I never thought at that moment I would never be able to throw a baseball really hard again without lots of pain. Sometimes it is amazing when you see the guys who have avoided serious injury for so long. Props to them. One more reason these long contracts are big gambles but so many of the teams today have so much money they take the risk. I really like Nola, but 8 years is a really long time.

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  80. Not sure the last time it happened but last season 2 division winners in the NL with 100 wins or more and neither makes the NLCS.

    Winning a WS these days is more about catching lightning in a bottle than it is winning an offseason spend game.

    Even though the Rangers had a major payroll the $$$ that was actually on the field for the WS was minimal.

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  81. Following a meeting in Japan with the Mets and meetings in Los Angeles with the Yankees, Giants, and Dodgers, Yamamoto has three more meetings set.
    They will be with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Phillies, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

    Why meet if they weren’t serious about signing him ?

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  82. There’s no way DD is sitting out the high end of the market. It’s far more likely he wants everyone to believe that.

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    2. Buddy, I think he is maybe in more of a reaction mode. There are a few pitchers available through trade to counter the dodgers additions. As of now,
      ATL & PHI imo, are still ahead of the dodgers for 2024. Obviously they are working on closing that gap. The Phil’s FO needs to be calculated, they don’t have the Dodgers war chest, they are essentially the NL Steinbrenner 2.0. They are going for it. I expect them to get Yomotmao (sp), it’s basically a given. The Phillies’ goal is to keep as much of their prospect capital as possible, that’s the best way to compete with the LAD, with their own war chest. Let them acquire glasnow & Margot…. Then it’s DD’s turn to counter. If they need to go get someone, I think they will. But he’s waiting for it to shake out. Usually teams can’t have more than 2 big FA off-season in a row. Just be thankful that we have Middleton as an owner, he’ll go beyond what is reasonable to be competitive

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    3. I’ve no doubt that DD and JM are heavily involved if for no other reason than to drive up the price for the other clubs involved.

      I don’t think their offer is in the 300M range but easily the Phillies have to be in around 200M-250M range. A big game of chicken.

      If they did somehow land him you can forget about about a Wheeler extension. Then you’d have $43M coming off the books after the 25 season in JT and Schwarber.

      Its all about AAV

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      1. It’s very unlikely they sign him but I don’t think it 100% writes off Wheeler, I think they’d have to attach a prospect and try to dump Walker or Castellanos.

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  83. I’d sign Bauer – it would make the LAD Rivalry awesome, he would negate the LAD enviable signing of yomota (sp). He will sign a favorable pitching contract, maybe a 1 year deal. The Phil’s have Turner to talk to, to know exactly how he is in the clubhouse. If he gives the thumbs up, sign him

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    1. Totally Agree. 1 Year – prove it contract. His chip on shoulder is bigger than Mt Fuji. Do the due diligence if good, get him.

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      1. In the voice of Michael Buffer:
        “Lets get ready to rumble”
        First card………..Bryce vs Jon Papelbon-2015
        Second card….Bryce vs Trevor Bauer-2024

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          1. If Bauer is a Phillie….you can bet the bout will be in 2024…book it.
            Harper will not stand for any nonsense/distractions that take away anything from the team chemistry or performance.

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            1. Does he want a ring? Bauer is good. I think he gets a bad rap. I get it but, this is a top tier (probably tier 2) player. If Turner signs off on him do it, and it’s likely again for 1 year. If it goes more, I’m sure there would be protections for the team given his background.

              I think will regret not signing him. Most of the posters on here are of the older fan age (nothing wrong with that) but that tends to not want to give such players a chance. That girl ruined his career, and she premeditated the whole setup. Now .. I’m telling eveyone … sign him.

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  84. I mentioned above the other day that Heyman said Phillies still involved with Yamamoto. I have no idea if true or not. Jim hinted No.
    BTW Romus or any other 76er fans George McGinnis has passed. He was the best player I ever saw in person in Indiana high school basketball. I played Varsity basketball my Sophomore-Senior years. George led Indy Washington to state title in 1969. My 3 years all state champs were undefeated. Not sure many kids in Indiana can say that. One other little tidbit my Junior team scored the most points 89 against the State Runnerup Carmel in the Sectional. Most they gave up in tourney. But I know Big Mac had great run for Philly. Indy could not afford to keep him.

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    1. Don…remember George well…..Philly was excited when he arrived, teaming up with another ABA guy named Dr J….exciting times in the 70s for Sixer basketball. Knicks actually signed Big George, but NBA voided that contract and sent him to Philly.
      Sorry to hear of his passing.

      Like

        1. Rocco, Big Mac was best in Indiana I ever saw. In the Indiana vs Kentucky All Star game in the Summer of 69 he had like 53 points and 31 rebounds. That was at a time when those games were the top games in the country.
          Had Bobby Knight been able to keep him at IU they probably would have won one or maybe two titles. Almost won one in 73 with his teammate.
          He was just so big and so strong.

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  85. Romus, I knew he teamed up with another ABA guy who could ball a little. I had forgot the Knicks deal. Indians simply had no money when they got into the NBA. They did telethons with Bobby Leonard just to survive those first years.
    Romus, I forgot when we were discussing the high risk of pitchers that lots of them have another one of my Hoosiers to thank. Think his name was Tommy John from Terre Haute way. Maybe a medical procedure was named after him. LOL

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  86. Romus, I just got back on computer. First headline. Phillies still in mix for Yamamoto. 2nd Phillies top landing spot for former MLB. Jim would love these headlines.
    Anyway, you are correct on the other Tommy John. I graduated in 71. I forget but think Tommy John was a few years younger, but I have forgot the actual time he graduated in Terre Haute. I know you will know. You always know. LOL

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    1. Don…..he is 80 now.
      Born: May 22, 1943…….. Gerstmeyer HS (Terre Haute, IN)
      Assume Tommy John graduated in 1961

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        1. rocco….family is from the area…he grew up a Giants fan….so that could be the selling point….I figured that would be his final location
          His wife, Jayme, is from there…they were in HS together….so I am sure she is on board. He will probably give them a discount for a lengthier contract so he can finish his career out there.

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  87. I did not realize he is 10 years older than I am. I thought he was closer. So, when did he have the surgery? Was he on the White Sox at that time? I played some Babe Ruth stuff and American Legion games in the Terre Haute area in the mid to late 60s. I did not know he was going to be famous then. Ironically, the kid I injured my shoulder against went to ISU. You know everything. You are so awesome.

    Like

    1. LOL…..he had the surgery in 1974…31 years old….lasted another dozen or so years later….with over 150 wins.

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  88. Romus. According to Heyman the Phillies met with Yamamoto today. Click bait?
    I was a junior in college. I wonder if I had had surgery on my shoulder I could have ever thrown again without pain. I always thought it would get better. Hmm. A little late for that now. So many things back at that time did not go like Tommy John surgery did. I always remember Gale Sayers. He was so good. Then boom. Knee surgery and over.
    Probably the 3 best ever from Indiana are Oscar Robertson, George McGinnis, and Larry Bird. I mentioned what McGinnis did in All Star game. Bird also made team his year. But little school and coach did not like him, so he sat till very end of game. Coach tells him to go in and Bird told he basically what he could do. You are not going to believe this but a few years after Bird and All Star that coach coached at my high school for a year or two. Too funny. Both had pretty good careers.

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  89. The Tampa Bay Rays are trading starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, in exchange for starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot and outfield prospect Jonny Deluca.

    What would the Phillies equivalent of this be?

    If they also get Yamamoto they will be VERY formidable and do you think the Phillies will have to counter this ?

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    1. Glasnow has one year left at his contract for $25 million, but reportedly the deal is contingent on him signing an extension with the Dodgers — probably something like 6 years, $210 million, with $204 million of the total deferred until 2054 . . .

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        1. rocco…..seems deferments is the latest trend in long term contracts, a few years back it was ‘opt-outs’

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    2. The Phillies don’t really have to player like Ryan Pepiot. He is 26. Only started 13 MLB games but has been dominant. Closest would be Ranger, but Ranger has much more experience than Pepiot. I would think that Ranger is more valuable than Pepiot.

      Rojas is a better prospect imo than Deluca. Unless you don’t believe that he would hit.

      So if you really wanted Glasgow, then Ranger + Rjoas would beat that package. But imo that would be too much. Glasgow can be elite but gets injured a lot and is on a one year deal.

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      1. This looked like a good trade for both teams. TB saves $25 million and picks up two guys who have a good deal of upside and who they control for a long time. Dodgers get a guy who can pitch like an ace for half a decade in a relatively affordable contract. Win-Win.

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        1. Glasnow has only pitched over 100 innings in a season twice……and the most was for 120 innings, last season.
          Dodgers are taking the risk…I think they will regret it.
          But they are loaded with cash and the two prospects are not top tier, so….
          IMO, his history over the last four years would be concerning.
          8/6/23…Back
          7/7/23…Cramping
          3/29/23….Oblique
          3/17/22….Elbow
          6/14/21…Elbow
          5/10/19…Forearm
          https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glasnty01.shtml

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          1. Noticed the list for second TJ surgeries is growing lately..not all came back as effective. some have…some ready to be determined.
            Tejay Antone….2017-2021
            Walker Buehler…2015-2022
            Mike Clevinger…2012-2020
            Jacob deGrom…2010-2023
            Nathan Eovaldi…2007-2016
            Dustin May…2021-2023
            Shane McClanahan…2015-2023
            Trevor Rosenthal…2017-2023
            Drew Rasmussen…2016-2017
            Daniel Hudson….2012-2013
            Hyun-Jin Ryu…2004-2022
            Jameson Taillon…2014-2019
            Kirby Yates…2005-2021
            Tyler Chatwood…2006-2014

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      2. The Phillies equivalent would have been Cris Sanchez. Sanchez is the LH version of Pepiot: young/controllable/BOR SP.
        I had proposed that deal (5 years of Sanchez for 1 year of Glasnow) numerous times since the end of the season. Rays are competing in 2024. They need SP depth. They like them cheap & under team control. They were also very familiar with Sanchez (former Ray prospect). Phillies would have gotten a SP with #1 stuff, though w/injury risk.
        I think the LADs made another shrewd move.

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        1. I believe Sanchez’s value is just a tick above Pepiot.
          Whether it is experience in MLB innings pitched, FIP, or even the dreaded WAR comparable…but all those metrics are so closely aligned it probably would not matter in the return value.
          Sanchez, though being a lefty, would seem to garner more interest from opposing GMs.

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        2. Good point. But I think Pepiot is better than Sanchez. He has much better strikeout and walk rates in both minors and majors. He is a year younger than Sanchez. And he throws harder than Sanchez. I like Sanchez but I think Pepiot is probably better. That said, he is a better comp than Ranger.

          So then it would come down to whether Rays like Rojas more than DeLuca.

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  90. Romus. Saying on MLB tonight that the Phillies had a contingent meet with Yamamoto today. They were talking who would be in that group. Said Dodgers yesterday had Ohtani, Freeman, Betts, etc..

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  91. Ansinger and Reynolds just talking Phillies. Saying Phillies know they should have won WS last season. Plus, do not want to let Dodgers land both. Guys are saying you have teams wanting Yamamoto and teams playing defense as to where he goes. To me of the teams mentioned the two that at this time who make the most sense are the Dodgers and Phillies. I am not sure any of the others at this point are ready to win with the team they have in place. Now that can change. It seems like the teams are just playing with Monopoly money now. WestCoast love your $200 million deferred till 2054. LOL.

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  92. I will eat my words … but no way Yomamto signs with PHI … no chance. Im sure he talked to Ohtani and they orchestrated a 2 for 1 signing. What was the point of deferring all that money? Phillies are just trying to jack up the cost because it’s believable they’d be in it.

    What’s your guys thoughts on baseball overall? Is Ohtani/Dodgers increasing interest for younger fans? I’m getting a MJ vibe for now. I’m wondering how Trout is feeling. He lost a player better than him, and he is a side note now. No one seems to
    Be talking about him. I bring this up, as MLB might want to collude on this … Trout vs Ohtani in the WBC was one of the most watched moments in baseball history … how would a much more consistent matchup of Trout/PHI vs Ohtani/LAD do for Baseball?

    Trout/Harper/Turner vs Ohtani/Betts/Freeman ?

    Wheeler/Nola/Bauer (or Suarez) vs
    Glasgnow/Buehler/Othani or Yomamoto

    That is an NLCS dream for ratings … The MLB needs to wake up.

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  93. Tac, I do not see how Phillies end up with Yamamoto either. But I really do not think Yamamoto might want to be on Dodgers with Ohtani either. Hot Stove was interviewing someone yesterday who had been playing in Japan last couple years. Anyway, he said Yamamoto is a different dude than the other Japanese guys. So, I wonder if he might not want to take his own track to stardom rather than play second fiddle to Ohtani. In the end it will probably be simply who puts up the most $$$s.

    I have question on that. If say 5 teams are involved. Is it liking an auction and you wait your turn till the agent gets back to you or what. Say to get a meeting each team had to agree to a certain number. Then the bidding begins. I just wonder how it works. For instance, Giants said they had almost same package as Dodgers so there must be some transparency as to what is going on by each side.

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  94. Bizarre – I suggested earlier that Glasnow was perhaps the next Zack Wheeler and then he goes and gets a Wheeler-like contract from the Dodgers – 5 years and $135 million. That’s a strong contract.

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  95. Brian, I agree. Saw last night that Glasnow is 30 and has 30 wins. Both are lots of money, but I would rather have Nola at $172 than Glasnow at $135. Guess one could argue on the 5 years vs 8 years.

    Romus, I saw the Gelb article last night. Aligns with what Jim had to say on Phillies going forward this winter. Few tweeks. I can see them almost going with what they have.

    Only thing interesting to me is if it is known Phillies intentions why Yamamoto would go ahead and meet. Maybe to see the Suishi Bar in CBP that Rocco mentioned. LOL Last thing. Saw Tommy John ad on tv last night. Toward end of ad showed old guy. Is that the real Tommy John? If so, I did not realize that.

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    1. Don…LOL, Tommy John the pitcher has no relationships with the underwear company.
      As for the commercial…do not know if that is actually him in it.

      Like

      1. Romus… I had never paid attention till last night and at the very end there is a small old gray-haired man in the ad. I have no idea if it is him. I wonder if they have to pay him money to use his name especially since he is so well known for the surgery.

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  96. Some rumors out there about Randy Arozarena being dealt. One person said, “the bidding starts with Crawford and Abel.”

    Imo that is too much. First there are not a lot of comps to RA being traded. He is still young and under team control until 2027. He is an .800 OPS guy who might be able to make a next step.

    Only comp that I can think of is Christian Yellich. Imo Yellich was a better player when the Marlins dealt him but the deal was Lewis Brinson (who ended up being a negative WAR player, sorry Jim) and 3 others who ended up not having any MLB impact. Brinson was a top 100 prospect.

    So imo that comps to Crawford and 3 others outside of our top 4 prospects. Not Abel too who is a top 50. I don’t think RA gets two top 100 prospects.

    What do you think?

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    1. Not only was Yelich better, he was 25 when they traded him, and Arozarena is 28. Expecting a guy going into his age 29 season to make a leap is usually wishful thinking . . . More likely he plateaus and then declines. I would not do that trade.

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    2. Arozarena for Crawford and Abel would have the possiblity of becoming an epic trade disaster of the highest magnitude. I would steer completely clear of that one.

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  97. Arozarena is a bit of a loose canon. He may not fit in with the Phillies clubhouse/culture or maybe he could acclimate to it. Good player for sure but would need to play LF because he is not a CFer.

    On another note, Austin Hedges must be the best defensive catcher in the history of the game. The Guardians just signed him for a year at $4M. His lifetime average is right around .200. Amazing!

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  98. Romus…you are going to love this. I just see on the IU site that former football coach Tom Allen is expected to be the new D.C. for Franklin at PSU. IU would have finished 6-6 with three straight wins in Allens defense could tackle anyone who had the ball at the end of those last games. Allen is a nice guy. Good luck.

    Like

    1. Don…thanks for the heads-up.
      Franklin goes thru coordinators as if there is a turnstile step up outside Beaver Stadium.

      BTW,,,DBacks signed Lourdes Gurriel for $14M AAV…a 11WAR player over the last 6 years. I think Dave D. paid Castellanos about 20% more than his value.

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  99. You are probably correct there. Most probably overpaid if truth be told. Saw earlier that Red Sox and Giants have offered more than $300M for Yamamoto. But seems it will be either Yankees or Mets. If those hope it is Yankees. Castellanos has always reminded me of Dave Kingman. Kind of all or nothing. Kingman probably did not hit the doubles but similar in other aspects. Lots of Ks. BTW little grandson got an autograph from Sandberg last week. He did not say if ball or what.

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      1. Its hard to imagine that Yamamoto doesn’t end up with the Dodgers….

        Its hard to imagine Ohtani didn’t structure his contract the way he did not to be sure they also land Yamamoto….

        The bidding war stuff seems to be for appearances.

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        1. DMAR…I have to agree……they must surely talk..Ohtani and Yamamoto…were both on the same Japanese WBC team….I am willing to bet Ohtani and him have some time of arrangement to want to play together on the MLB team.

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  101. dmar and Romus… you guys may be correct. I just get the vibe it will not be the Dodgers. Seems to me his main focus is on the NY teams. Like I said I may be wrong. If it is NY I do hope it is the Yankees.

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  102. .Romus . . . Reynolds just said on Hot Stove that when Yamamoto met with Dodgers Ohtani and he met and spoke in Japanese for a period of time. Maybe your odds are good. I am hoping Yankees or Red Sox. Keep him in AL.

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    1. I’m sure if Mike Piazza was going to Japan just because Roger Clemens was there and spoke to him in English that they wouldn’t sign up to play together. Just saying.

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  103. Romus . . . Just reading and listening that Rosenthal and Morosi are reporting that Phillies are still involved with Yamamoto. Saying Harper spoke with Yamamoto. One other point they make is that DD wants to make a stake in the Japanese market this Winter even if not Yamamoto. Another point made is that the Phillies are maybe the readiest to win team of the suitors. I am sure Harper made that point clear.

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    1. Don….if the Philies want to get a foot into Japan….I do not understand why they just not go for Shota Imanaga…..he will come less expensive, solid mid-rotation guy and will be a shorter contract (4 years) based on his age already.

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  104. Romus….He is mentioned as a possible target by the Phillies. Just seems that the Phillies are putting out vibes they want to be a player in the Asia market going forward. I am just mentioning what is on TV here this morning. I have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. If Bryce just spoke with him, it seems they are at least still showing interest. Seems the Harper meeting was in response to the Ohtani meeting with Dodgers. Maybe Phillies are just helping to up the ante for whoever wins the sweepstakes. As long as you do not have the last bid it costs nothing to bid for a long time.

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  105. High Heat shows Phillies as one of the 6. Russo does not think he goes to either Red Sox or Giants. His side kick Risso thinks they need him the most and she lists Dodgers as the 3rd most need. So we will see.

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  106. Interesting sales pitches … and they are true. It wouldn’t be a bad strategy to push for Yamamoto. It would solidly the Phillies as “in the window”. It will be hard to top the dodgers hype … but I’m sure other players are seeing it:

    Wheeler
    Nola
    Suarez
    Walker,Sanchez, … throw in the hype for Painter.

    Yamamoto has to see that .. with a gas throwing BP, offense that can score, and much improved defense. Players manager and one of a few handfuls of fans that can make a stadium feel like japan

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  107. I mentioned the other day that if Yamamoto simply looked at the teams with best chance to win and forget $$$$s to me the Phillies and Dodgers are the top two of the teams listed. Rosenthal says today Phillies are aggressively pursuing Yamamoto. But Imanga is also brought up as well. Lots of mention of Bryce going hard on the sales pitch to get him to Philly.

    Like

    1. I agree, Atlanta has a case, except they don’t have the “it” factor.

      It’s nice to see the Phillies having a legit shot. I think one thing Japanese players look for is the fan presence. In Japan, those crowds are close to Phillies playoof atmosphere for regular season games. Imho, it’s tough to go from that to say … MIA.

      Biggest ratings hit 36 million, for a game 7 NYY-BOS, about the best the NL could do these days is a PHI-LAD games 7. ATL might get some pull due to the last years. I think players look for that as well, the money. When you know you are getting over x millions of dollars … whatelse do you start to look for? Crowd vibe has to be in there along with food, schools, etc

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    2. Don …trying to connect the dots.
      1.Last week Boras/Harper talk extension.
      2. The Bryce and Yamamoto camp may have conversed.

      I think the extension is an effort to lower his AAV by deferments….extend the years…and try to bring in Yamamoto……similar to what Ohtani is doing with the Dodgers.

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      1. Harper/Boras were talking extension months ago, back during the summer. No matter what happens with the free agent market, Harper is going to receive an extension. Harper may end up with a front office position and a piece of the team down the road. Not a position that gets fired but an executive position like special advisor the PoBO or better yet special advisor to the managing partner.

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        1. Yeah…..everyone seems to think he will get that extension.
          And if he ends up with a exec position, well that will be a promotion r from Associate GM.

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  108. Romus…I do not know if there are any dots. It does seem strange that for a fairly long time there was not much mention of the Phillies and Yamamoto. Now there is quite a bit. Again, maybe just a smoke screen to up the ante but it has been reported for some time now the figure is around $300M. Rosenthal said Harper Facetimed with Yamamoto recently. Seemed like a rebuttal to Yamamoto meeting privately with Ohtani while in LA. I have no idea on the extension, but could it be to defer some of the money for Harper at this time? Hmm. We all know Bryce wants to win now and this may be his best chance in the next few years. Sounds like Phillies are at least being aggressive in whatever they are doing at this time.

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  109. Romus…there is a new article up on ESPN by Passan on Yamamoto. It is a good article. I only scanned. Think Passan refers to the player I saw on Hot Stove last week talking about Yamamoto. Main point is they say Yamamoto knows what he is looking for. Also mentions he may do a shorter deal so he can be a FA again at a young age. This is a free article to anyone who wants to read it. Just posted recently.

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  110. Romus…Steve Phillips on High Heat just said that Ohtani offered all 4 teams the same deal. He said both the Giants and Blue Jays agreed to the deferred money. He said the Angels said No.
    Phillips does not like the Glasnow deal simply because he is never healthy. He cited be so tall has issues. O’Dowd has said in the past the best indicator of future success is the past. Only once pitched 120 innings.
    On Bellinger he does not think Bellinger will get the big contract he is wanting. Previous two seasons have been weak prior to last year.
    Finally, he thinks Yamamoto goes to Mets. Said he likes Senga. But said he really could see other choices.

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  111. Don…..looks to me like it is Phillies Harper vs Dodgers Ohtani for the prize.
    Phillies Associate GM is pulling out all the stops.

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  112. Romus…that is funny. I have no idea what it is. How about this scenario. All 6 teams have agreed to the $ figure Yamamoto is asking. $300M most mentioned.
    Maybe higher, maybe lower. Now his team is determining details of the contract. Years, opt outs, deferrals, location, team make up, fans, sushi bar, perks, anything else they can think of to add. Some may drop out after, or he simply does and Ohtani and picks one. Kind of like the Bachelor. LOL

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    1. Don…….so they say there are about a half-dozen teams putting in bids for Yamamoto.
      If… the Phillies are lucky enough to be the one, with Harper’s assistance of course, they probably go to be the favorite’s in the NL-East
      And they will need another interpreter to stand next to Diego Ettedgui.

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  113. Romus…funny. Morossi says this morning he thinks Yankees. Says Yamamoto wants the Biggest stage. But he had Ohtani flying to Toronto as well. I prefer Yankees over Mets or Dodgers.

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    1. Don……..the one thing I have noticed about the hi-velo star Japanese pitchers that come over…….many eventually damage their UCLs and require TJ or PRP therapy……Ohtani, Darvish, Maso Tanaka, Daisuke Matsuzaka (Dice-K)…..not sure why that is…..the larger baseballs used in the States vs Japan, frequency of rotational turns, excessive travel-less rest vs closeness in Japan between the largest cities, who knows.
      So I would expect Yamamoto will eventually take his turn under the knife.
      And MLB tams must see that also.
      Though virtually all hi-velo guys anymore have some type of an UCL issue eventually.

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    2. Don…..many star Japanese pitchers eventually end up with UCL issues involving TJ. or PRP therapy measures…..Darvish, Ohtani, Dice-K, Tanaka.
      Suppose many reasons for that…larger US baseballs, new rotational pitching ad I am sure other reasons.
      Will see how the Yamamoto events turn out…I still like Shota Imanaga

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  114. If the rumors are true, and teams are talking 10 years and 300 million dollar offers to Yamamoto, I think I’d try something different…
    If I’m the Phillies, I’d offer Yamamoto 3 years at $35 Million. He’ll get a good chance to win, play in front of a full house almost every home game, and possibly establish himself as a winner. After 3 years, he’ll be a free agent at the ripe young age of 28 and STILL get another 10 year deal… if he’s all that.

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    1. I’d bet that his deal even if 10/$300 will include opt outs so the smart thing to do is to bank the $300 million and then take a look at your options in the years to follow.

      Bird in hand is always worth 2 in the bush!

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  115. Romus…did you read the Passan article on ESPN? Few things. Yamamoto does not lift weight. Carries a bag around with lots of stretching type items. Kind of yoga stuff maybe. Also only 5’10” and 175 or so. Similar to Pedro and Lincecum. One of things mentioned by someone else is the only thing he wants is to have other Japanese players on team. So that would seem to eliminate some of the six if true. BTW I saw the Tommy John ad again and at the very end they show an older fairly small gray haired man. I have no idea what he would look like now but I do think he was fairly small in stature.

    Andy…I think that is one of the things that is being tossed out at least by some of the teams. Shorter deal. Says Yamamoto may want that as well so he can get back out in FA. Or at least early opt outs in contract. Guess we just wait and see.

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    1. Don, In doinv a Google search, I came across this reference:

      In a Sporting News interview 3 years ago, Tommy John said he has no relation to Tommy John underwear and considered suing them for use of his name, but didn’t want to pay the lawyers he approached for representation, $250,000. He also says in the interview that “my girlfriend called the company and said she was representing me and that they should think about using me as a spokesperson. Their reply was they don’t have it in their budget.”

      The item also mentioned that the company owner is Thomas John Patterson, making a successful law suit by pitcher Tommy John even less likely.

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    2. Phillies have Garrett Stubbs-san, the craziest, partying Kamikaze – and – Sunday Sushi Chef East of Tokyo.

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  116. After Yamamoto I believe Boras has the next 2 biggest FAs in Snell and Bellinger as well as a few others including Hoskins.

    His style has always been to convince his clients to have patience.

    As it pertains to the Phillies who simply need some BP help at the very least it makes me wonder if that plays to our favor. Guys will start to get impatient around this time.

    And there are some pretty solid BP arms out there.

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    1. DMAR…another pitcher from Japan…RHP reliever Shintaro Fujinami is out there and could be alternative, if the Phillies want to establish more of a relationship with Japanese players.
      But your point is valid…Boras, like a cat, is stoically patient and waits out his prey.

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      1. Romus i hope this kid from japan signs, Maybe they will use you as interpreter, I know you learned the language , during World War II

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  117. SWFL Frank. Too funny. I never put the two together till Romus said something. But since I have seen two ads and there is a guy at the end of the ad who is elderly with gray hair. Fairly small in stature. I have no idea on the name thing. Did Tommy John have a patent or whatever on the surgery? I am not a lawyer.

    Romus…seeing this morning that Yamamoto may now wait till in the New Year to make a decision. He has till January 4th I believe. So that means he agrees today. LOL Bowden said last night Phillies are ok with his price. Some mention 10 years and $300M plus but like Andy said yesterday it may be a shorter higher AAV. That way he can go out again at a young age. One thing some are saying about him is he wants to be the Big Dog. That might hamper uniting with Ohtani. Seems most still think NY with Yanks the favorite because of team makeup at this time.

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    1. On Tommy John, he doesn’t have a patent, he was simply the first baseball player on whom the surgery was performed successfully to the point where he could pitch in the big leagues again. So his name became synonymous with the procedure.

      On Yamamoto, it seems to me that the headline Japanese players either want to play on the West Coast or in a city/market that is world famous. I think, regardless of money, it will be very challenging to get him to come here as opposed to L.A. or NYC – it just seems very unlikely. But here’s to hoping it happens. If they do sign him, however, and it goes well, this will probably be the last year for Zack Wheeler in Philly – next year, Painter would come in and fill that opening (not immediately, of course, but over a few years).

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    2. Don…..if he wants to be the ‘ Big Dog’….well Gerit Cole pulls the sled in NY, in Philly there is Wheeler and Nola, and of course in LA is Ohtani after 2024 as their pitcher…….that leaves the Mets and Red Sox where he is numero uno pitcher on the staff. Cross your fingers it ain’t the Mets.

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    3. Don…Like I mentioned prior, have to worry about hi-velo Japanese starters…..they usually succumb to TJ/PRP after just a few years…Dice-K, Tanaka, Ohtani, Darvish….the ball and frequent starting may be adversely effect their UCLs, plus the previous innings pitched in the NPB league

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    4. No trademark by Tommy John on Tommy John surgery, but I bet he sure wishes he had thought of it at the time. But too late now. You might call it Tommy Gone.

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  118. Catch…I figured there was no patent. 1974 one would not think of that. You guys who know what Tommy John looks like need to catch an ad. It is in the last few seconds that the older guy is in ad.

    Romus…it seems to me that lots of pitchers who throw hard have TJ surgery. I mentioned here in Indiana two kids who my grandson has played with and against have already had it. One is a Senior, and one is a Junior at present. Both seem to be doing ok. The younger one pitched again last Spring. Older missed last season.

    Hot Stove guys just said that if Yamamoto and Bellinger signed with Mets they still would be behind Braves and Phillies. It may in the end just come down to who pays the most $$$s.

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  119. On Yamamoto, sounds like he is guarandamnteed to sign with the Dodgers. I forget where I saw/read it but … it was a decent source.

    As others have said, Yamamoto wants to play with other Japanese players….

    He also said that he will go wherever Othani goes …

    Those 2 things seem to fit together. I’ll be surprised if he goes anywhere else. Maybe, a Hail Mary that the Phillies offer him 40mil for 3 years, and that gets him to bite. I could see a slight chance he takes it. Who wants get locked into
    A team for 10 years with never being in the league? Might make sense to take the higher AAV, take a bet on yourself, get a taste of the league, then settle in?

    Other than that slight chance, he’s a dodger, that’s who my money is on. If so, I hope he stinks 🙂

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    1. He can do a 10/$300 deal and not be locked in easy….

      His deal is going to include opt outs I almost guarantee it!

      Even Ohtani has opt outs built into his deal al beit they are tied to personnel in the Dodgers FO leaving the Dodgers. I believe if either Friedman or Wolfe leave for any reason he can cancel the deal.

      Now just because he can doesn’t mean he would!

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  120. Guys here is a funny. Phillips said this morning on Hot Stove, he thinks it ends up being Mets. Said Cohen had Yamamoto over to house for dinner and showed him his $92M rabbit of some kind in his yard. Said if he can have that rabbit, he can afford what Yamamoto wants. I have no idea where he goes but since most are saying it will go into the New Year it could be anyone though most think one of NY teams.

    I agree on the Tommy John patent or whatever he could have got. Back in 74 that was never on the front burner probably for anyone.

    Stove had Jamie Moyer on, and Reynolds asked how he pitched so long. Jamie said he hurt his shoulder in 89 and he rehabbed all Winter. He said he did that the rest of his career. Mentioned that he has told teams about that, but none are interested in that. Seem to prefer the surgery route instead.

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    1. Don……..Jamie, a local guy from Montgomery County and St Joe Hawk fame……could get away with that protocol….he never was a hi-velo guy with te Cubs and thereafter……the Glavine type.
      Not sure there are many around like that anymore….Dallas Keuchel may have been one of the last….MadBum has his issues now and Kershaw really got bombed vs the DBacks..
      Teams want the hi-velo to eventually return for their post-op pitchers.

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  121. FYI. CBS has an article just up now on Harper and his desire for an extension. It is a pretty good article. Gives a lot of good points in the story.

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  122. Romus…I get your point. Tommy John also was a finesse pitcher as well, wasn’t he? I actually forget if I ever saw him pitch. I always thought after some time my shoulder would get better but did not. I applaud Tommy John for having the courage to do the surgery. I wonder how many guys before him suffered that injury and basically ended playing days. I was always amazed at the Ryan’s, Feller’s, Seaver’s, Johmson’s who threw so hard for so long without a serious injury to their arm or shoulder.

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    1. Don…agree, strange phenomena how some pitchers are able to maintain health thru-out their careers and most of the others seem to break down….maybe it is genes

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  123. Romus…true. Sometimes I think luck is involved as well. It only takes one pitch. I have seen guys who have broken their arms pitching. I played with a kid in Legion ball who got drafted in 73 by the Giants. Think it was 2nd or 3rd round. He threw really hard for then. I forget all the specifics, but he would get hit by a line drive either the first or second year in minors. I think Terry got drafted same year they picked Montefusco. My spelling may be wrong. But he never pitched again after being hit in the pitching shoulder. That is bad luck.

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    1. Remember Leo Mazzone of the Braves….. With five-man rotations, pitchers were throwing fewer innings and fewer times between starts. Mazzone was drawn to Johnny Sain’s revolutionary approach to the game. The consensus among teams dictated that in a five-man rotation, starting pitchers would throw one session off the mound between starts. Mazzone knew that pitchers needed to place a premium on throwing. He adopted Sain’s thinking that pitchers needed more work to close the gap. Mazzone instituted a new pitching regimen. Pitchers would now pitch more often between starts, but with less intensity. Braves’ arms in the 90s rarely broke down.

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    2. Remember Leo Mazzone of the Braves….. With five-man rotations, pitchers were throwing fewer innings and fewer times between starts. Mazzone was drawn to Johnny Sain’s revolutionary approach to the game. The consensus among teams dictated that in a five-man rotation, starting pitchers would throw one session off the mound between starts.

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    3. Mazzone knew that pitchers needed to place a premium on throwing. He adopted Sain’s thinking that pitchers needed more work to close the gap. Mazzone instituted a new pitching regimen. Pitchers would now pitch more often between starts, but with less intensity. Br aves pitching of the 90s rarely broke down.

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  124. True. Plus, they seemed to throw more pitches in games. Back in my time it seemed like when the coach gave us the ball it was our game to pitch. No one kept track of how many pitches we threw. High school was only 7 innings, but Legion during the Summer was 9 innings. My last Summer we were so good but figured out a way to lose to a team from Indy we had beat 4 of 5 times. There main guys were a kid who beat us in Babe Ruth and then this Larry Bullington. His kid would years later be the #1 pick by the Pirates. I forget the year but probably mid to late 90s. Bryan got to AAA I believe but not sure he ever made it to the majors. I am sure that is something you can find.

    You are right on the Braves. I listen to Smoltz speak about those teams a lot when he does games It seemed many of the old-time guys had their own regimens. Lefty was always putting his arm in rice between starts. Gibson just stared you down and challenged you to try to hit him. I remember Bunning and Short on the Phillies of 64. Think Mauck pitched them every other day when they blew that 6 1/2 game lead with like 10 to play. That was my intro to the Phillies.

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  126. Romus…you are so good. Yes, that is him. I played basketball and baseball against his dad. Larry was the basketball coach at Madison then. I had forgot that Bryan got drafted out of high school. I knew he went to Ball State. Dad did as well. Ball State is where I went after I came back from South Alabama. Dad played basketball at Ball State. I had Coach Rickel ask me to play after he found out I had come back to BSU, but I could not throw. But I lived just across street from ball diamond, so I went over from time to time to watch. I even went to watch the kid play who I messed my shoulder pitching too. He ended up at Evansville which is in Southern Indiana. Just goes to show you that all #1 picks do not make it.

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  127. Around midnight, MLB Trade Rumors reported that the Phillies presented an offer to Yoshinobo Yamamoto. They provided a link to a Matt Gelb article that came out earlier in the evening around 7:00 PM. It is true. Gelb did say so in the article that included updates from writers from all seven contenders’ beat writers who write for the Atlantic. No terms were reported. It appears that no other suitor has made an offer yet. I’ve known for a while that the Phillies were still seriously in the running for the Japanese pitcher but could not report such. I did stop saying it wasn’t a possibility when Don continually reported on every article that the media published on the subject. Or when opinions were expressed on either side of the debate. I’ve known for a couple of days that an offer was coming but still couldn’t report what I had heard. I can’t wait to discuss the Phillies offer and hear your thoughts. It goes without saying that until other offers are made, discussing the Phillies’ offer would be stupid since it would give the other teams information that they shouldn’t have. Let the other teams try and figure out if they are bidding against the Phillies or bidding against themselves. If money is the sole objective, Middleton is a difficult owner to be up against. If winning is the top concern, the Phillies are positioned much better than the Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Giants. And, probably the Yankees. I think the only real competition is the Dodgers. And, CBP is a better playing environment than LA where fans go to be seen, arrive late, and leave early. Of course, I’m biased. We’ll soon see if the Phillies offer is competitive. That DD is a sly son of a gun.

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    1. I never doubted Dombrowski/Middleton would make a competitive offer. Just my guess, but I think it will take about 300M. The Phillies would look to spread that out over 12 years. Probably front load it, and give an opt out after year 4.

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    2. Probably the worst kept secret…once everyone knew Harper went out of his way and made the effort to talk to Yamamoto……the offer would come.
      Management is not going to let Harper down without an offer coming
      Whether or not the Japanese pitcher accepts is another matter.
      IMO….if he does not accept it and decides to go elsewhere, the Phillies should make every effort to pursue Shota Imanaga.

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      1. Romus – it’s a great FO move. Even if they don’t get him, it establishes the Phillies as a player for every FA. If you’re a FA, the Phillies tell you if they’re interested 🙂 They we’re on the map before, but now it’s “leveled up”
        Secondly – instead of Imanga.. what about Hader to move the needle. Hader + a low cost prospect (Painter) improves the team more imo

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        1. Not sure Dombrowski and the crew are interested in Hader…..they have been silent on him.
          If they sign Imanaga…..it is a starter…….I would try to move Walker for prospects if that happens.

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    3. Thanks for confirming Jim – I was thinking it was a smoke screen from the agents, as the rumored 300mil asking price made sense it would knock the Phils out … but I will allow myself to get slightly excited. Not to be a negative Nancy, but I see him on the dodgers because of Ohtani. He mentioned he would go where Ohtani went soooo … we shall see. It would be pretty awesome though. Who would want to face the Phil’s in the postseason then 😂. Okay, well let’s hope it’s a baller offer he can’t refused no matter how it’s structured, and he’s as good as advertised.

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  128. Jim…nice to hear your post. If I did something wrong, please say so. I simply watched the MLB shows and mentioned what was said. Before any of these reports other than the 7 teams I did mention to Romus in a prior post that if winning is THE most important it seemed to me the Phillies and Dodgers are most ready to win with the current rosters. I have thought for a few days what if the Phillies had won the WS. I wonder how that would play with Yamamoto. Guess it is time to wait and see.

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    1. One thing the Phillies can offer Yamamoto a lot of the other finalists can’t is a ready-made 6-man rotation. In the NPB, SPs throw once a week. The Angels promised Ohtani a 6-man rotation when he signed with them.
      I realize the Phillies are the dark horse in this race, but I’ve always believed they would make it hard for Yamamoto to say “No”. Dombrowski has a long history of hunting stars, Middleton has no problem spending stoooopid money, and the Harper/Turner/Schwarber/Realmuto/Wheeler/Nola window isn’t going to remain open forever.

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      1. “Harper/Turner/Schwarber/Realmuto/Wheeler/Nola window isn’t going to remain open forever.”
        …LOL
        The Harper/Turner/Nola and, maybe Wheeler, windows….will all be propped open for awhile…even in the dead of winter…brrrrr

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  130. Well the dream is over for us Phillies fans…..it was fun while it lasted. I wonder what DD’s offer was and what’s our next move now?

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  131. Well I’m glad I contained myself on this one. This dude, got basically the same deal as Harper… never thrown a pitch in the MLB, or even the MILB. Well, I hope he sucks.. especially in the playoffs… like .. Clayton Kershaw suck in the playoffs. I was really hoping he’d go to the Yankees

    Anyone warming up
    To the Bauer signing yet?

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  132. Fer things. Say Mets also offered 325M. Yankees 300M
    Romus…saw an article which mentioned the 3 Major Risks.
    He has never pitched in MLB
    He is small in stature.
    He is a pitcher.
    All the teams who came in 2nd at least saved a lot of money.
    Finally, a final reason it is sad that Phillies were not able to finish the job last October when they had a chance.

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    1. Don……yes there are those risks, and then the UCL issue with many of the hi-velo star Japanese starters.
      Phillies need to move on to Shota Imanaga.
      He does not have the gravitas as Yamamoto, because of the lower velo and five-years older, , but he could be a solid mid-rotation guy.

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  133. Romus…just have to wait and see how things go from here. One thing that would be a concern for me is lots of Dodger pitchers with arm injuries. Wonder if they may be doing something to contribute to that or just coincidence. He did pick one of the two teams most of us felt had the best chance of winning in the near future. I have a question. Does the posting fee count in the contract value or is it just a sunk cost that the winning team has to pay in one payment to the Japanese team?

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    1. Don…..”Does the posting fee count in the contract value or is it just a sunk cost …”
      Just a sunk cost….does not count against the luxury tax threshold.
      So basically eliminates most of the small market teams out of bidding for the high-profile super-star NPB players

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  134. Romus…that makes sense. Just saw a Mets story just ripping Yamamoto. Guy says thanks for dinner Steve, and you have a lovely home. Compares Dodger’s roster to Ocean 11 stars and Mets to Larry the Cable Guy. Kind of funny.

    Saw Glasnow talk with Hot Stove guys other day. He said that the injury he has had has been mostly the same injury over the years. That would be a serious red flag for Dan O’Dowd. He is always saying a player’s future risk of injury is his past history of injury.

    As of today, grandson has officially wasted his first semester of Junior year. Even now he will not play in a competitive event for another 3 months. So mid-July till end of March. IMO beyond stupid.

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    1. The other teams I get, but the Yankees? I assume the odds makers must be assuming the Yankees will sign Snell and it’s hard to argue that they won’t – but still. Better odds than the Rangers? Better odds than the Rays? Better odds than the Orioles? I also think the Blue Jays are likely to be better than the Yankees.

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  136. I want Hader or kid from Pittsburg. Get me a top closer. And I will go to war with this team. Yes either one of the Japanese players would be great. But still would need a shut down closer.

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  137. Catch…I was surprised with Yankees. They have added Soto but did not make playoffs a year ago. But neither did Dbacks or Rangers.
    Rocco…I think the Phillies need that guy as well. It cost them a trip to the WS last Fall. I wonder though if they feel that SerAnthony, Kerkering and Hoffman might fill the bill. I wonder if they think Hoffman could be the closer. I am sure they feel Kerkering may be the closer of the future. But he needs some reps.

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    1. Alvarado is number one on the closer depth chart, no doubt.

      But he’s not the closer of old that only comes in for the 9th. He’s just first man up in a, “we need this out” situation.

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    2. I forgot entirely about Soto . . . but I’m still not seeing them as a high level World Series contender . . . and it does not seem like a close call at all.

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      1. Two more things on Soto. First, I expect him to have a HUGE career year in advance of free agency – Yankee stadium was built for him. Second, 2024 is going to be his age 25 season!!! How is that even possible? It’s like Bryce Harper – he’s so damned young for his level of experience.

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  138. Dan… I agree. He is the one Topper has the most confidence in at key time. My comment was about replacing Kimbrel. It would be great if the Phillies can find someone who when you need 3 outs to win, he is pretty automatic.

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    1. Don…relievers are unpredictable year to year. Getting someone that is automatic for three outs every outing can be a crap shoot, a roll of the dice….prior to the season.
      A team almost have to see what they got come April or May, where one guy blossoms out for that year…ie Hoffman.
      It could be a guy like Soto in 2024.
      Then you have a guy like Kimbrel…great for the first 5 months, then cracks begin to appear in Sept and implode in October.

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      1. Romus…I get the unpredictable. But there are some guys who seem to have in their DNA the ability to handle the 9th inning. There are no doubt the last 3 outs are different than the first 24. That is not to say that the most important moment may not take place earlier in the game like Dan mentioned.
        The Phillies may feel that Hoffman or Kerkering might be the guy. Think there were those who thought SerAnthony would be that guy, but he does not seem to fit that mold. It would be great if Soto did but to me, he needs to throw the ball somewhere around home plate with more frequency. He has the ability. He did it in Detroit but not the same pressure as the 6th or 7th game of the NLCS.
        I was hoping Kimbrel would fill the bill. But if you look back in recent years his track record was much the same as last season with Phillies. A really good start and then fading down the stretch. I think that is why he is available on a yearly basis. That is not to say that in his prime he was very good. He was. Seemed to me that when things went South for him it was his mechanics that got out of Wack.

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      2. Romus so true. Relief pitchers are like Hookers. Don’t know what your getting .Paying before they perform

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  139. A couple weeks ago, bishopx026 mentioned Shintaro Fujinami as an option for the Phillies. Now that Middleton/Dombrowski struck out on Yamamoto, I’m on board with the idea of the team signing Mount Fujinami.
    I’ve been on here for years posting my want for this organization to tap into the Japanese market. Fujinami was once one of the 2 biggest pitching prospects in Japan. He was 1B to Ohtani’s 1A when they were each in HS. He was so well thought of, he could have signed with an MLB club as an 18 YO. However, he, like Ohtani, decided to begin their careers in the NPB. Fujinami has never reached his sky high ceiling because of (sometimes severe) controll issues. He still has incredible arm talent, and is IMO worth investing money in as a “buy low” candidate. The Phillies have been building a pretty impressive resume with this type of arm (Alvarado/Hoffman) lately. At the least, Fujinami could serve as another power arm in the pen. Best case scenerio … Caleb Cotham tweaks the Japanese RHP’s delivery & allows his 4-pitch mix to grab a spot in the rotation (or even as a swing man).

    https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1726577090680770703?s=20

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    1. I love the idea of picking him up. Often, in sports, we forget about how difficult transitions are for foreign players – we view them somewhat as self-sustaining chess pieces, that can be bought, transferred, and inserted. Making the adjustment from Japan to the USA with the different customs, baseball routines and huge language barrier must be massive, especially when you’re not a coddled and protected superstar player. If they get this guy, make him comfortable and get him to settle in, he might be pretty fantastic. These large transitions can take some time.

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    2. Fujinami will help in the pen, though not sure I want to see batters taking walks.
      As for starting….I think those days are gone…A’s tried it and just did not materialize like they wanted…..even in Japan he has not started there after 2017.
      The plus side …he can come fairly cheap and the Phillies will have at least made an effort to get a Japanese pitcher into the system.
      And if the big guy can garner more command then he could be a real asset out of the pen since he sits at 96-98.

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      1. I don’t want another wild relief pitcher, I really hate when they come in, and walk the first batter, I don’t have the stats, but love to know what percentage of runs are given up in late inning with a walk with no outs versus getting that first out,

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    3. I would like for them to make this move. With their track record of fixing pitchers like this, there is no real downside if the price is right. Plus it’ll get us into the Japanese market so it’s a win/win

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  140. Romus…see an article this morning here that has 3 home run moves Philles can still make.
    Your guy Imanga. Comparisons to Bumgartner, Kershaw, and Greinke. Said he pitched better than Yamamoto in WBC.
    Next Josh Hader. Good replacement for Kimbrel. You do see Phillies mentioned here.
    Finally, Teoscar Hernandez.
    Any thought on any of these.
    BTW Merry Christmas to Jim and his family and all the posters here on PP. This is my favorite site.

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    1. Don…….not sure what the Phillies’ stance is on Hader…he will be one of the highest paid relievers…..maybe more than Diaz of the Mets.
      Teoscar Hernandez….where does he fit, unless trades are made?
      In my world…sign Imanaga…and then move Tai Walker, and pick up good percent—50%–of his salary to the Giants for two prospects, some pitchers like former Lehigh Univ. RHP Mason Black and RHP Hayden Birdsong.

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    2. Merry Christmas to you Don. Imanaga has already priced out above what the Phillies are willing to pay/think he’s worth. Hader, too. Don’t know their position on TH. But, the Phillies are only interested in one year deals at what they consider to be reasonable prices. Think Phil Maton type. Although, he may soon be out of reach as market prices and years increase. Unless they change their current thinking to address market changes, they’ll wait until the market stabilizes and grab what’s left in late January.

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      1. Was afraid Imanaga would get even more up-driving bids since Yamamoto is off the market.
        Some large market teams are desperate since they have struck out in the past on hi-profile free agents….Giants being one of them, and maybe the Red Sox and Mets.

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  141. Romus…looks like you could be the GM. Does sound like Imanga might be a good option. I do think the Phillies need to see if they can find a reliable closer. I am always nervous when Alvarado enters. Soto needs to show ability to throw strikes for me to like him. I am sure Hader will do well. But I do like him. Article just mentioned Hernandez. You guys know so much more on the minor league guys.

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  142. Thanks Jim. Merry Christmas to you as well. I so enjoy all the hard work you put in to make this site so enjoyable. I can see the Phillies being pretty set with what they have at the moment. Do you think they feel that Kerkering can be a viable replacement for Kimbrel?

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  143. Jim and Romus. I see a CBS article mentioning that the Phillies priority is to extend Wheeler. Zack has the best WAR of pitchers last four years. 19.6 compared to Cole at 17.8. Saying Cole will get paid through age 38 season. Saying a $144M four-year deal for Zack would match Cole. Any thoughts on this.

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    1. Don…..Wheeler because of his age probably gets the four years. Not sure he will be able to get the 5th year from the Phillies. But I only see an AVV max of between $30 and $32M….not $36M

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    2. Well the extension is a stated priority. Nola was also a priority. The Phillies seem to follow through on their priorities. I hope they arrive at a deal before the season starts.

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  144. Romus…it seems like especially the Mets and Giants are getting the most grief of the inability to sign the guy they wanted. Saw where Cohen said, “life goes on”. The fact they both matched the offer of the winner seems to tell them some guys prefer other places.
    All I was doing with Wheeler was using the Cole comp that they were using. Cole is getting years remaining plus feel Yanks will pick up his option year as well. That is where the $144M was being used to compare.

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  145. Here is another one on Cohen. Just showing 4th place Mets having to pay $101M in LT. Say it is a record. He may fume a little on this.

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    1. Don……Cohen does have the largest treasure chest of all the owners, so he probably will only fume for a brief time.
      Wonder what they will do with Alonso….Cubs have shown interest in him via a trade, since 2024 is his last year on this his first contract..

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  146. Romus…other than finding out players may prefer elsewhere to all of his $$$s.
    Yesterday one of the articles had winners and losers on Yamamoto. It had Soto and Alonso as winners since more money may be available. Not sure Alonso wants to stay in NY. Cohen spent lots of money last year and I think it was mentioned that around 6 were gone by trade deadline. Think 6 was number mentioned.

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    1. Merry Christmas to all. All I want for Christmas is another year like the other 2 for the Phillies but hopefully a better outcome. I really enjoyed the playoffs and this Team. Jim, you bring happy greetings to everyone all year long, big Christmas thank you.

      Don, dog is doing great, must be a Hoosier!

      Leaving for Mass, I’ll say a Big prayer for y’all. Maybe “The Pope ” Paul Owens will intercede for us.

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        1. yes rocco,
          ……Merry Christmas to all, and and to all a good night.
          Now mount Gui, the donkey, and start delivering gifts to the kids down there.

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  147. Don – Speaking of the luxury tax, the Phillies don’t have too much to worry about because they are “only” due to pay $6.98M. If that’s the bad news, the good news is Romus and Moffo are putting their shekels and lira together to cover the tab. That’s a nice Christmas gesture from those two saints.

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  148. Denny…that is awesome news on the puppy. Maybe Hoosier would be a nice name. Merry Christmas.

    Ciada…so funny on Romus and Rocco. One can tell that the amount would only be a drop in the bucket for them. I so enjoy all of you. Merry Christmas.

    Romus and Rocco…Merry Christmas to both. All of you make my days. I even tell some of my friends about this site.

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  150. I would think Bauer would be worth the risk on a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Is there any rumors that the Phillies or anyone else is even interested in signing him ?

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    1. I know and accept that Bauer is talented. But, trust me, you don’t want him around. Have you watched the Eagles lately? They have a lot of problems, but the biggest and perhaps the worst is the fact that the team chemistry has gone totally out of whack, which is very, very hard to fix. One thing the Phillies have going for them is chemistry – and you don’t want to mess with that. Add Bauer to the mix and that could get out of whack too – and fast. We don’t want to be the Padres – who were full of talent last year but so internally dysfunctional they couldn’t even make the playoffs. There’s no way in the world I want that guy on our team.

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      1. The flip side of that coin is similar to the teams of the late 70’s and the addition of Pete Rose. I imagine Rose knowing what we know now was not unlike Bauer LOL

        And I am not saying or agreeing that we should go and get Bauer

        But I look at what we have and yes they are a great group of guys and I love watching them play but it is possible we are just a little short on talent to win it all.

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        1. Does Snell & Hader cap it off?

          It’s time to go for it imo.
          Sell off Soto & Walker if needed to make it happen, though I feel Walker got a bad hand from the lack of playoff appearances

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          1. TAC I think the near term window isn’t as wide open as it was and I mostly feel that way based on where our payroll currently sits so I wouldn’t necessarily look to add to that conundrum.

            Definitely not with a couple of pitchers looking to be paid at the top end of the market.

            In looking at the money on this team its hard to ask/expect any of those players to be much better than they have been.

            Harper and Wheeler have been stellar. Turner sure he should be better than this season past for the next couple of years but his SS days are going to fade pretty fast IMO.

            You’re not going to get much more out of JT, Kyle or Nick.

            One of Bohm 108+ and Stott 104+ will need to take big leaps forward if we are going to take a WS. Bohm’s replacement is already in the system in Miller and that is likely 2-3 years out.

            Marsh 127+ was exceptional. By the numbers he should be your LO hitter not Schwarber. His OBP was 372 which is remarkable and even if that fell off some its still really good.

            Perhaps its a matter of trust and if DD thought O’Hoppe was worth Marsh what is the issue?

            In closing its time for the FO to stop looking at the road right in front of them and start looking farther out for they may miss the pile up wreck they are about to run into with disastrous consequences.

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        2. Pete Rose was not a cancer (even though he was weird beyond belief), he was a catalyst. All Pete Rose cared about was winning. As he said, “I’d walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball.” You wouldn’t ever hear Trevor Bauer say such a thing. Please don’t compare Bauer to Rose.

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          1. You can absolutely compare the two. Saying Rose was weird is putting it rather mildly. Its ok you can say it he was a scumbag by today’s standard.

            and it was overlooked because he was a helluva baseball player. That’s how that media operated then

            But he was every bit the freak that Bauer is and you know it.

            And we’ll soon be adding Wander Franco to the same list.

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            1. Agreed – Rose was a scum bag. So was Mickey Mantle. So was Billy Martin. So was Lenny Dykstra. And I’m not excusing their off-field behavior. But none of them was a clubhouse cancer who would poison a baseball team. They were winners (at least on the ball field). Bauer is toxic.

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  151. There’s a reason no team has shown any interest in Trevor Bauer.
    I will be floored if he ever throws another pitch in MLB.

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    1. Hinkie…..I think I got what you had a few weeks ago…..ended up in the ER this morning for six hours….possbly Flu/RSV..upper repsiratory issues. Trying to see my primary is an odreal…Friday earliest

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  152. Romus. Take care. My wife had Covid before Christmas and was really sick for about 10 days. She is on blood thinners so could not take the best meds for it. I got a slight cold but nothing more. I stay home most of the time. Sure, that helps some. Everyone needs to take care as best you can.

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    1. Yep Don……understand flu and RSV is going around now, so have to take all the necessary precautions.

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  153. Romus…my wife had a really bad cough and sore throat for several days. It took her several days after to get feeling back to normal. Were you tested for Covid yesterday?

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    1. Weird Don…the older gentlemen in the bed next to me….who came in light headed, and unable to keep food down…was tested for both Covid and RSV…I come in couging phlegm, achey, pain in chest, headache,,,,,and as the nurse leaves the room I ask am I going to get tested also……NO she says….go figure, they must have some rhyme or reason..

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      1. ……..never accept a nurse that’s a Mets Fan…….this is exactly what you will get🤨……hope you are on the mend!😉

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  154. That is weird. My wife had some tests here at home. She tested herself and then went to the doctor to get script. She could not take the Paxlovid which is best because last January she had knee replacement and then got a blood clot, so she is still on blood thinners. Reason it took her a few days longer she thinks to get feeling better. My wife is a medical person, so she has all this stuff. So, did you end up getting anything or do you have to wait till you see your doctor?

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      2. Martin, had this stuff been in a prospect article it would have been flagged for deletion. But, since it showed up in the more popular non-prospect article where all kinds of non-baseball topics are discussed, I turn a blind eye to it.

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  155. At first I wasn’t getting why Alex Anthopoulos traded Grissom for Chris Sale. Then details come out about the money back and the new contract and essentially the Braves are only paying $21 million for 2 yeas of Sale

    I still think it will end up being a bad move for them. Sale won’t stay healthy (prediction)

    Grissom was a very talented 22 y/o that was not blending in with the coaching staff and some work ethic issues.

    If Boston gets him to grow up look out. He could be an offensive gem al beit defensively he really struggles as an IF.

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    1. IDK, I give Sale a 65/35% of working out this year. I think he came on strong last year, had some freak accidents… not injuries that make him made or glass…. Say like our old buddies Roman Quinn & Eric Lindros

      I think Sale has a better chance of bein healthy, BUT let’s hope he falls off a cliff like Halladay did. Sale is 36. How these pitchers are extending their careers into age 40 seasons defies past history. Either the PT/nutrition is that much better than before … or this wreaks of performance enhancing drugs. That’s another topic but … we all have to admit it’s odd that someone can pitch so well past age 36. 12 mil is not a bad gamble per year at todays wages

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  156. I’m wondering why its taking so long to add what is an obvious need and that is a high leverage BP arm.

    I would not put out the kind of AAV and years required for Hader but there are a handful in the $8-$10MM AAV or less range that I think would be excellent fits

    Stephenson
    Neris
    Maton
    Stanek
    Fujinami*-As others have mentioned on him the stuff is amazing but command is scary and not sure I want to see another reliever coming in and walking guys.

    And then of course there is Hicks who I think is waiting for Hader. He likely slots as the next highest cost RP after Hader in terms of AAV and Years.

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    1. DMAR….LOL.
      Dave D adheres to the Confucious philosophy……the oxen is slow, but the earth is patient.

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  157. In the last couple days, I have read a couple articles on the BP situation. One predicted the Phillies will end up with Hicks. I did not realize he is only 27 now. See one today that has list of top 10 free agents left. It has Phillies landing Hader if things continue to go in slow motion. So, who knows. I do think they could use another arm to replace Kimbrel. Jim thought Kerkering will start in AAA.
    Romus…How are you feeling?

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    1. Don,
      If you’re going to quote me be accurate. I wrote,

      “The players most likely to be considered for the active roster are Kerkering, Sanchez, Castro, Stott, Marsh, Pache, and Rojas. Although, I don’t think we should be surprised if Kerkering and Rojas (and maybe even Castro) start the season at Lehigh Valley for seasoning. I wouldn’t do it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies consider something like that.”

      That’s a whole lot different from saying something WILL happen.

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