Weekly Discussion (12/4/22)

The baseball offseason continues.


Baseball’s Winter meetings have started.  Let’s hope there is more news than the free agents signing minor league contracts that we’ve listened to so far.  But, don’t hold your breath waiting for a Phillies’ announcement.  While I expected the Phillies would have liked to have announced a shortstop deal by now, market fluctuations may have created the need for a different strategy.


News

Zach Eflin signed a three-year deal with Tampa.  Good for Eflin.  He got starter money.  This has zero impact on the Phillies.  They were never going to offer three years or guarantee a starting role.

It’s no secret that the Phillies are looking for an elite shortstop.  They are in every rumor that the agents start and the writers report.  And, rumors abound as the agents and writers try and add to the list of suitors daily. 

Recently, it was reported that two of the perennial top buyers, the Dodgers and the Yankees, may opt to fill long-term shortstop openings either internally or with a short contract while waiting for near-ready prospects to be ready.  Remove the two biggest spenders and the market changes.  It may be prudent to wait for the market to stabilize.  In any event, the Phillies are on every agent’s wish list.  They will sign a shortstop, eventually.

Hot Stove

Not much is happening.  A few more signings.  Still, no one in whom the Phillies have a strong interest has signed.  The DeGrom contract may have the effect of pulling up the salaries of even the backend starters.  

The Phillies claimed an outfielder, Jake Cave, off waivers.  He’s another left-handed hitting outfielder.  He’s not likely a threat to the active roster.  His attraction is that he has a split major-league contract that offers a larger salary on the minor league portion.  This is supposed to discourage other teams from claiming the player as he passes through waivers and to encourage the player to accept an outright to the minors at a salary he’s not likely to approach if he declares free agency.  


Key Dates

  • December 4-7, 2022: The 2022 Winter Meetings will take place in San Diego.
    • December 7, 2022: Rule 5 Draft
  • December 15, 2022: Close of the 2021-2022 international signing period.
  • January 13, 2023: Deadline for teams and players to submit salary figures for arbitration.
  • January 15, 2023: Opening of the 2022-2023 international signing period.
  • February 25, 2023: Phillies First Spring Training Game (split squad)
  • March 30, 2023: Season Opener at Texas Rangers
  • April 6, 2023: Home Opener v. Cincinnati Reds
  • July 2023: Rule 4 Amateur Draft
  • December 15, 2023: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period.

Transactions

12/02/2022 – Phillies claimed CF Jake Cave off waivers from Baltimore

You may have noticed that the new free agents were assigned to Reading.  I think that indicates that the minor league players they are protecting from the Triple-A portion of the Rule 5 Draft have already been placed on the Lehigh Valley roster.  We haven’t seen these transactions the past few years.  Lehigh has 16 players on their roster.  The Phillies can elect to protect up to another 22 players, 23 if they reassign Scott Kingery to Reading.  There’s little chance he is selected with his contract.

Rule 5 eligible players – 

  • LHP: Damon Jones, Jakob Hernandez, Jhordany Mezquita, David Parkinson, Zach Warren, Keylan Killgore, Taylor Lehman, Ethan Lindow, Gabriel Yanez, Erubiel Armenta, Gabriel Cotto, Maikel Garrido, Josh Hendrickson, Brian Marconi, Rafael Marcano, Jordi Martinez, Erik Miller, Spencer Van Scoyoc,
  • RHP: Matt Seelinger, Hans Crouse, Carlos Betancourt, Colton Eastman, Luis Gomez, Cristian Hernandez, Tyler McKay, Jack Perkins, Tom Sutera, Victor Vargas, Aidan Anderson, Albertus Barber, Starlyn Castillo, Carlos A. Francisco, Kyle Glogoski, Adam Leverett, McKinley Moore, Nicoly Pina, Dominic Pipkin, Carlo Reyes, Andrew Schultz, Brett Schulze, Eduar Segovia, Manuel Urias, Wilson  Valdez,
    Catchers: Jack Conley, Nick Matera, Arturo De Freitas, Vito Friscia, Herbert Iser,
    Infielders: Will Toffey, Matt Kroon, Madison Stokes,  Chris Cornelius, Wilfredo Flores, Sal Gozzo, Kendall Simmons, McCarthy Tatum, Rixon Wingrove,
    Outfielders: Carlos De La Cruz, Jeff Encarnacion.

Any player eligible for the draft can be selected and placed on any affiliated team.  He doesn’t have to be placed on the Triple-A squad.

 

550 thoughts on “Weekly Discussion (12/4/22)

  1. This is a somewhat of a carryover from Don53’s post in last week’s discussion citing the Phillies having a spot held over in the 2023 rotation for a prospect. MLB lists Painter’s MLB eta as 2025 with Abel and McGarry as 2024. Are those etas historically accurate?

    1. Nope. They’re basically educated guesses made based on age and what level of the minors they’re playing at.

      Which is not to say that they’re never right or that they aren’t useful for a general idea of when to expect a promotion. But it’s not like they have a crystal ball or some kind of advanced insight into a club’s development plan.

  2. Of all the players listed above for Rule 5 drafting….I can see five that may appeal to other non-contending clubs that have specific needs to fill in pitching (mix between starters and relievers)…..Erik Miller, Damon Jones, Han Crouse, Taylor Lehman and Ethan Lindow.

    1. C’mon Romus, rumors are that you and Rocco are holding up the works in San Diego arguing over who’s paying the breakfast tab at the hotel…let’s get this show on the road.

      If I’m the Phillies, I offer Verlander 2/$90M if only to force the Mets to go 3 years. And Rodon 6/$180 to jack his ask up as well. Rivals for Turner are doing the same to us, so…all’s fair.

    2. I hope Taylor Lehman does not get picked by another team. I would like to see him develop into an end of the rotation pitcher. He is on the older side but sometimes that is the MO of lefties.

      1. Denny……if he is blocked in Philly, then he should have the opportunity to get to the majors with another club.
        I am sure he would like to get picked up and be in a big league camp come spring. He had 12 innings in Arizona with 16 Ks….but did have some control issues.
        These guys have worked hard and their entire lives to have the opportunity to get to the big leagues.

    3. I would be shocked if the Phillies lost 5 guys in rule 5. As much as we like to say that these guys deserve to be protected, the other teams are likely in the same boat. They have their own guys to worry about too. Also, with 26 man rosters capped at 13 pitchers, it’s pretty hard to stash 1 pitcher and go with a 7 man reliever mix. That pitcher will eventually have to eat some innings and be somewhat competitive. Even mop up guys have to not stink.

      That said, Erik Miller not being protected says a lot. There’s absolutely no reason not to protect him, unless there are issues that we don’t know about (physical and/or mental).

  3. Okay, so while everyone is waiting for someone else to make a move, let’s go back to V1’s idea the other day…

    I propose (in classic Dombrowski fashion): Rojas, Abel, McGarry, Miller and a 1B/DH who wears #17 to Arizona for RHP Zac Gallen and OF/3rd string catcher Daulton Varsho. If nothing else, RH becomes a deadline piece for the DBacks if they aren’t able to extend him, which they might being not far from his southern Cal home. Varsho would become a versatile depth piece (or more) in Harper’s absence. A rotation of Wheeler/Nola/Gallen/Suarez/Painter could be the top one in MLB.

    1. Zac Gallen is from the area and went to Bishop Eustace Prep (my alma mater). I’d love to see him in red pinstripes, but this feels like a little bit of an overpay even if he is still cost controlled for 3 more seasons. You want to give up 3 of our top 5 prospects and Rhys Hoskins? I don’t know much about Varsho, but in 2+ seasons of MLB experience he’s a .235 hitter who strikes out a ton and has never played 1B. We’re certainly not in need of additional bad defense outfielders who strike out a ton. Maybe another package for just Gallen where we keep Hoskins? Also, are the DBacks trying to contend this year? Would they even contemplate trading one of the best SPs in the NL who is still under team control?

      1. That’s why the overpay. Timing. The Phillies are pushing across the finish line while the Dbacks are just pushing off the starting block, especially in that division. And we wouldn’t need Varsho at 1b. We’ve enough candidates there. He’s a RF/CF guy, decent but not great glove who can catch in an emergency.

        1. I like Gallen. Feels like an overpay for sure, but … you almost always have to overpay.

          My concern, is the loss of multiple talent , that is cheap/controllable for Gallen. Need to players to balance out the payroll. I probably still do it… but I try to get McGarry out of that deal. McGarry is potential back end BP Piece or #4/5 on this team in the coming years.
          This team was built backwards, by that I mean, they bought in FA before the core was really in place. Then kept adding through FA, and now the prospects are coming in. This is the opposite of the 07-12 teams. At the end, to keep the playoff window extended, the 11-12 teams needed the painter/Abel/McGarry/stott etc that never came. That’s why I’d be hesitant of giving up so much even with adding Gallen.
          The Phillies haven’t historically drafted well (Duh) So to Finally hit on some… hard to trade them away … as I’m not confident they can repeat.

          1. No, you have three young stud pitchers in the minors. Probably at least two of those guys are going to be high achieving, cheap starters for years and at one least of them (and perhaps two) is probably going to be a big star. You don’t trade away these assets now – in fact you set up your system so you keep can those assets. You let those guys pitch. You don’t trade these guys away just as you don’t trade Jalen Hurts and more for Russell Wilson. If you want to overspend for 2-3 year contract on a big name starter, fine, but those guys, especially Abel and Painter, are essentially off limits.

            Stop thinking like desperate Phillies fans and start thinking like confident Eagles fans. Build on your strength – don’t trade it away.

          2. The Braves model seems more of a fit… they had older bats Sid Bream, Terry Pendleton, Ron Gant…then added the big arms – FA Maddox, then Smoltz, Glavine, Avery; Chipper’s bat, and 14 years later – only 1 ring (Manager’s indifference).

            We have the bats, and the Farm is growing the arms. Stott, Bohm, Marsh are next-gen.

  4. I don’t believe any Rul 5 player will be packaged in a trade as the potential to lose that player in the Rule 5 draft to another team outside the trading partner is possible. Post Rule 5 draft it’s ok. Therefore, likely no Miller in a trade package before Wednesday..

  5. I know all about the wish to trade a certain 1B, but I am sorry you guys will be disappointed. Gave my reasons multiple times, not going to repeat. Aside frim him, though, I keep Rojas in the Minors. He has not earned a spot yet, we traded O’Hoppe to get Marsh. Let’s wait at least another year to see if he can keep up his production from after the trade, and meanwhile, Rojas gets more reps. If he can hit, he is a legit CF option for the future. It doesn’t have to be decided this year. He is a terrific prospect, and as good as Gallen is, that is way too much. We can get SP help without trading most of our top farm prospects. Just my opinion.

  6. Phillies need a uniform update. Need to go with a heavy all red as the alternative, much like the Dodgers all
    Blue Unis … then we can have a Bloods vs Crips baseball matchup
    In all seriousness. Would be cool to see some type of update. Redesign the 80s uniforms, invert the blue to red, swap the “P” with the liberty bell. Something like that. Hey … they need to pay for these contracts some how!

    1. Tac … I think they may finally unveil their Nike City Series uniforms in 2023. I’m expecting a Phillie Phanatic theme. Just my opinion.

  7. I’m assuming Dombrowski is looking to lock down Turner first. After that, he’ll need to get busy beefing up this team’s pitching depth (both rotation and pen). Aaron Nola threw more innings in 2022 than he ever has, and I think he has more IPs than anyone in MLB over the past 5 seasons. Ranger Suarez totaled logged more innings (by a long shot) than any other time in his pro career. And Zack Wheeler had multiple starts missed with a dead arm. Painter/Abel/maybe McGarry will all be on some kind of innings limitation. I’ve mentioned a number of times the Phillies will likely use a 6 man rotation for (at least) part of next season. Gotta do that to keep their arms more ready for another postseason run (fingers crossed). I hope (and I believe) the team doesn’t settle for innings eater. They should be targeting a SP3 or better. At this point, it looks like the Verlander ship has proabably sailed. It’s possible (but not likely) the Phillies could emerge as a surprise team for Rodon. I’d still keep an eye on a couple of dudes who have a history with Dave Dombrowski. Both Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Sale helped Dombo win a ring in Boston, and were awarded big extensions by the now Phillies POBO. Eovaldi is a FA. He has a history of being a big time playoff performer. He still throws hard, and limits BBs. He does have a QO attached so there’s that. But Sale could be an buy low opportunity. He’s barely thrown the past two years because of pneumonia, TJ, COVID, fractured rib (while throwing BP), fractured finger (when struck by a line drive), and broken wrist (bike accident). He’s under contract for two more seasons (27.5M in 2023 and 2024 …. although his AAV is only 25.6M), and he has a 20M club option for 2025. The Red Sox have suddenly become cost conscious. They are in danger of losing Xander Bogaerts this winter & Rafael Devers next winter. I could see Dombrowski trading some non-top prospects for Sale. The other FA SP with some upside and no QO is Jameson Taillon. He could also be a Dombrowski target.

    1. I am not dead set against acquiring Chris Sale, but he is not a buy low opportunity because he’s going to be paid an enormous salary – more, on an AAV basis than any Phillies has received up to this date (soon to be passed by whomever they sign to play SS). It’s a big risk, but perhaps one worth taking if you think he’s healthy and, yes, I don’t think it’s going to cost much, if anything, in the way of prospects. Do you remember when the Red Sox put Manny Ramirez on waivers (he really was there for anyone who wanted to pay his salary – spoiler alert, nobody wanted to do that)? It’s a little like that.

  8. Hi Jim,

    Last week you mentioned how you knew about Eflin deal for a couple weeks. Why would that deal be done and not reported for a couple weeks? Are all deals this way? What was the reason for icing that deal from the media? Can you kind of give us a behind the scenes how it all works? Thanks! Chris

    1. The reporting publicly was that he had a deal with Boston, then gave Tampa the chance to match and they did last week.

  9. Sounds like a Dodgers deal. How did they let him get away? I know Hinkie wanted him, but, I would not have gone $43M. SF seems to have Correa in their sights. Can they get him and Judge? How can the Yankees let Judge go, no matter how high they have to bid. I still think we do something today.

      1. But nobody has talked about how sad and overwrought I am (or we all should be) about his departure. I am beside myself. Again, this is KYLE GIBSON we are talking about, not some minor leaguer.

        1. Solid pitcher and he did help us get tot the WS. There are others who have more upside that should be signed

          1. Uh Bob – I am joking in the extreme – I could care less that they lost Gibson. He’s an okay number 5 but he was far too expensive for that role.

            1. Catch, you were overwrought so I am just trying to ease the pain of your loss. I’m still upset of the loss of Mini-Mart years ago.

  10. I hope Mark is talking about Cookie Rojas, in his above proposal. I don’t even consider trading the other Rojas in the system. his improvement, for a real young kid has been really good. and I don’t know what people are quick to include Abel in trading proposals. That kid is not far behind painter. They could have 2 studs at the TOR in 3 years. McGarry, I would reluctantly give up. And all of this for Gallen and Varsho? What does Varsho give you that you don’t have now. I’m thumbs down on that one. I love Cookie, and might trade him, but not the other one.
    gm

  11. Wow, Dodgers re-sign Kershaw for 1 year, $20M.

    And Rodon is looking for a 6 year deal, ~$180M deal from somebody. That’s really scary for a guy who finally broke out at age 28 and has had his share of injuries.

    1. Yeah, but Rodon at 6 and $180m could end up being a great deal if he can stay healthy. He’s the right age, with the right profile and he’s a lefty. If you sign him, you basically have a full succession plan with your rotation. You let Wheeler go after 2024 (his remaining contract is the perfect length) and you’ll still have Nola (I think they sign him to an extension this offseason), Ranger and a couple of young studs.

      1. Rodon is the right age (30) but man, I would be worried about him. He could easily implode at any time and that would be a disaster contract (much like Strasburg’s contract). I don’t want to give him 6 years.

  12. Rodon’s exorbitant salary demands remind me of another highly sought after free agent lefthanded starter who had been dominant for only a couple of years: Patrick Corbin. And we all know how that badly signing has played out for the Nationals.

    1. I remember when he was a FA, people here were debating whether or not the Phillies should give him his 6th year. Thankfully, they didn’t. Now the Nationals don’t win their title without Corbin, but he’s been so bad that the Nats couldn’t attach his deal to any of their previous trades. AND he’s still under contract for 2 more years after posting -2.5 WAR last season.

      1. Yeah, I hear you. Rodon is a power pitcher who is throwing harder than he ever has (certainly as a big leaguer), whereas Corbin was more of a control/breaking pitch artist. But I get it.

        As for Rizzo, he took a huge risk with Corbin (which I actually understood) and then took a really stupid risk with Strasburg (who had huge velocity red flags). For a while there Rizzo looked like a genius – now, not so much.

      2. I think Rizzo and the new owners , whoever that will be, will hope Corbin rebounds this season….and they move him at the deadline in July for a prospect, since he will only have one year remaining on his contract…2024.

  13. Guru, you’re right on both points. Corbin certainly helped the Nats win a World Series in 2019, but the six year term of his contract has been an albatross around Mike Rizzo’s neck ever since then.

    1. Wow!!!

      Well, they got their man. He is truly an excellent player and solves a “hit tool” issue in their line-up for sure. Very curious to see how many years he got. I’m much more concerned about the years than the AAV.

      1. Gulp – 11 years!!! Holy God. Well, that’s our boy DD. He’s really good at giving away big contracts – some are good, some are disasters. That’s his weakness/make-up. Let’s hope this is good for at least 6-7 years. But man, that’s a looooooong deal for a 30 year old player – you have to expect at least 3-4 completely dead years if there’s no team opt-out or buyout.

        1. But the AAV is relatively low….and in years go by the lux tax will be rising also. So the Philies are really not hamstrung to the threshold down the road.

          1. I really could care less, in the abstract, that they are wasting money 6-8 down the line. But I do care about how that money – and don’t kid yourself $27.5m AAV is a lot – will impact the team at that point. Bad contracts really drag teams down.

            1. Just imagine what more the Sixers could have done if they didn’t have that stupid Tobias Harris contract.

  14. Always reading and rarely posting – Where are the Phillies on Kodai Senga? That would be my number 1 pitching target. I am not going after pitchers with a draft pick associated with them, unless it’s Rodon. Walker and Taillon are ok. Not going to move the needle in the post season and don’t like the injury history.

    1. He went with length as a priority it appears ( as his bud Harper did)…..$27M AAV seems a bit low.

  15. So, less than $30M AAV, more $ to sign Pitching. Obviously, I am thrilled we got him. What do you guys think? And, I know the end of the contract, just like Harper’s, may certainly not be cost effective, but it is less now, which I believe was done for the sole purpose of adding more Pitching.

    1. Thrilled we got the player, happy about the AAV, but the contract length at the end will be super rough. It’s not like Harper’s deal to me. Harper is a generational power hitter/superstar. Maybe the last year or two will be rough, but I expect Harper to be productive almost the entire deal. The last 3-4 years of the Turner deal could be really ugly, but for now, it’s all roses and they have salary space to sign a big short-term arm free agent. That should be interesting.

      1. Hi catch, no argument from me. I was not referencing the value of the Harper vs Turner deals, just about the extended term, with a lower AAV, so that DD could make more moves. I agree with you. I am looking at 6-7 productive years from Turner, and I think he is just the guy we needed. Now, on to Pitching, both Starting and Relieving. Purely a guess on my part, but I believe that DD has carte blanche to exceed the CBT, with the restriction to stay under the second level.

    2. Actually it could be cost effective, in relation to the luxury tax and the penalties that may incur….which by then , the threshold could be somewhere around $275M or higher.

  16. Someone please give a luxury tax threshold update after the Turner deal. What does this mean for their ability to add SP/RP? Assuming it helps, I like the deal…

    Yes, Harper and Turner will be washed by the end of their deals. Does it matter for their current window to complete? No. The luxury tax threshhold will continue to go up, so you can theoretically do a better job of eating those contracts in 2028-32 than you can now (i.e., still be able to sign talent without soaring past the luxury tax). The years reduces this to ~27.25 mm AAV. That has to help them sign more now and in the future, right?

    1. Baseball is not like basketball or football, where the money flows like crazy. At a certain price point, even teams with deep pockets will balk at even going that high. Cohen has already said that he doesn’t want to breach $300M for salaries, and let’s face it, there’s only a handful of teams who are even willing to get into the $225M range. Thinking that the luxury tax is going to go up by leaps and bounds and other teams will follow suit, that’s a pipe dream I think. People want Castellanos gone and he only has $80M left. What happens when Turner starts declining in year 5?

      1. But baseball is just like basketball and football and the money does flow like crazy, at least for large market teams like the Phillies.

        For years, the cry was that the team was a big market team that pretended they were cash-strapped. Now they are acting like a big market team that can handle some bad back-end contracts again people are complaining.

        The only real issue with going over the tax threshold is the impact on draft picks and international money. Keeping the AAV down by adding years to the end of the deal is a good way to dance around that number while using their money to field a championship caliber team.

        If they have to write off some $$$ 10 years from now who cares.

        1. So basically what you’re saying is that you’re good with winning a title now and worry about the future later? Like current Nats fans who won a title, tanked and now saddled with Corbin and Strasburg’s contracts?

          And guess what, when the good times are over, and people stop coming to games, the Phillies won’t be continuing to spend money. Didn’t that happen in 2016? The Phillies were 20 games under .500, their payroll went down to $88M opening day and the Phillies were still trotting out Ryan Howard in the last year of his infamous 5 years, $125M contract?

          1. The National’s issues have to do with making bad decisions on which FAs to sign, not expiring contracts. Corbin basically was terrible 1 year after signing his deal and resigning Strasburg to his latest deal was just stupid. Guy was already missing time due to injuries.

            As for the Phillies, post 2011. Their problem wasn’t the last year of Howard’s contract. It was the rest of the roster was terrible and the farm system was barren. They weren’t bad because they couldn’t spend money of FA’s, they were bad because they had a terrible roster.

            If in 2029 the Phillies best players are Turner and Harper then they have much bigger issues than their contracts still being on the book.

            Did the Dodger’s have a problem because they were paying Bauer $40 million a year to not pitch or because they had the end of Price’s contract? No, those were dead money deals that they absorbed while the rest of the roster continued to produce.

            The key is keeping a steady supply of young talent coming up to continue the success. That’s where the Phillies need to be in 2029.

            1. Should also add that the National’s opening day payroll for 2022 was $45 million less than in 2018 and more than $70 million below the tax threshold so they decided they weren’t good enough to compete in the division and decided to blow it up. Had nothing to do with not having $$$ to spend because of bad contracts.

            2. The Dodgers paid Bauer to pitch. Whatever happened afterwards, the Dodgers had zero control over. As for David Price, his contract got acttched to Mookie Betts. The Dodgers decided that was a gamble they can live with.

              The issue is not that the teams can afford the bad contracts. The issue is that the team is obligated to play them even though they are declining. We all knew that Ryan Howard’s contract was terrible. But nobody else wanted it, the team didn’t want to eat all that money, so they played him even though he was done. We didn’t get to see any other players get their shot at 1B because of Ryan Howard. That’s my beef.

              And you see that everywhere. You think the Nats want to trot out Patrick Corbin every 5th day? Or the Tigers with Miguel Cabrera from 2017-2022? Or Anthony Rendon (who looks finished), Pujols his last 6 years with the Angels, or Justin Upton? Angels had to play these players because nobody wanted their crap contracts and they didn’t want to eat the money. So what happened? The team stunk because the Angels got not starting level WAR from these players.

            3. Or you can do what the Mets did with Cano and release him. The decision to play an underperforming player is just that, a decision. It’s not a mandate.

          2. But, Guru, had we won in 2011, when I believe we had the best team in Baseball, that down time would have been much more palatable.

  17. So is Segura gone???? What happens to Stott?? Platoon?? Who is the DH while Harper rehabs??

    Bohm to first?? Stott to third???

    1. Segura is soooooooooo gone. Stott will likely play second. My guess is they find a way to shuffle a bunch of guys through DH and first and RF while Harper is on the mend. Expect someone like Darick Hall to get a bunch of at bats at first and DH and maybe they sign a veteran to get some ABs in right. Hoskins is almost certainly back absent a blockbuster trade.

      1. They may end up platooning Hall and Sosa with Hoskins/Bohm getting the DH reps. I don’t mind that.

    2. Steve, Segura is already gone, and Stott is our 2B. We have multiple DH options. I am assuming you were not being facetious.

  18. Love it!! The last few years will be dead money, but by then the luxury tax threshold should be $300 million, so the 2032 and 2033 Phils ought to be able to absorb the hit.

  19. Eh, Turner will be riding the bench / pinch runner by midseason after Maton claims the second base job pushing Stott back to SS.

  20. Yessssssssssss!!!!!!

    Turner and stott hitting a head off Harper. schwarber, realmuto, hoskins, and castellanos

    Love it

    1. If you really want to win the WS this year or next, getting a guy like Rodon would make a huge difference. Imagine having Wheeler, Rodon, Nola, Suarez and then one or more of the big three from the minors? FUGGHETABOUIT! Now that’s a rotation.

      1. What the playoffs showed was having a deep rotation is meaningless to winning playoff games. It’s about having 2 dominant starters and multiple power arms in the bullpen.

        The deep rotation will get help you get to 100 wins but one the playoffs start, it’s about relief pitching and clutch hitting.

        1. Disagree completely. The bullpen arms are huge – don’t get me wrong, but our bp was generally okay. We lost the series, in large part, because their 4th starter pitched like an ace and because our top two starters were hit around in the series. Those were among the most relevant moments in the series.

          1. But then you agree that the difference was that our 2 “Aces” didn’t pitch like aces. How does having a great 4th starter change that? Are Wheeler and Nola not going to pitch in the playoffs if they struggle? Is Verlander an ace? How did he do in the playoffs?

            The Phillies lost because they scored 3 runs total in the last 3 games. That’s a lack of clutch hitting and had nothing to do with having a deep rotation.

            Squeaking into the playoffs with 87 wins was about not having a deep rotation.

            1. Not buying it – Framber Valdez wasn’t looking very irrelevant when he held the Phillies to two hits over 6 innings in game 6 or 4 hits and one run in game 2. The fact the the Phillies two top starters did not pitch well shows how important their roles were – without them being effective the Phillies were cooked.

            2. Framber Valdez looked unhittable in game 6. But if sosas left field drive was pulled about 30ft the game would have been different.

              But his cutter reminded me of Carlton’s slider.

              Alvarez is scary.

              Yes, a 3rd elite pitcher would be great and important. You can’t live off two aces. You need 3 or 4. Phil’s got lucky with a rainout and travel days, but sticking a pitcher between Suarez and Nola would have given Nola the extra days rest that wheeler got.

              Remember Halladsy, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt

            3. So if Valdez pitched game 2 and game 6 he wasn’t their 4th starter for the playoffs , was he? Sounds like he was their #2.

            4. So what? He’s a starting pitcher – he dominated 12 innings in two World Series games his team won – super irrelevant. Yeah, I don’t think so.

            5. Oh yeah – the fourth starter, Javier, pitched 6 no hit innings on the front end of a no hitter in addition to the two games starter Valdez dominated. Starting pitching is still absolutely huge – far from irrelevant.

            6. Now you’re making no sense. M point was you need two dominant starters and a good bullpen in the playoffs and you response is that the Astro’s #1 starter dominated the Phillies in 2 of their 4 wins.

              Yes, that’s the point.

            7. Fair enough – but my view is that you need to be 3 or 4 deep. You don’t know how your top two guys are going to do. Javier – the number 4 starter – completely shut down the Phillies. The Phillies’ number 3 guy pitched better than their aces and almost kept them in the series. Those guys were very important.

  21. ELEVEN years!!! Come on! A lot of us on this site will probably be dead when this contract finally comes to an end with Turner probably using a cane by then.

    1. I like Turner, but 11 years is downright outrageous. It’s ridiculous. Best case, he gives us 5 good years, 3 average years, and 3 bad ones. And that’s best case! I’m thinking 4 good years, 2 average ones, and 5 bad ones.

      My buddy is happy that the Phillies gave this deal because it’s a crap deal. There’s zero fiscal respnsibility here and it’s ignoring the fact that SS don’t age well. I’m disappointed.

  22. 1)Turner – SS
    2)Stott -2B
    3)Harper -RF
    4)Schwarber – LF/DH
    5)Realmuto – C
    6)Hoskins
    7)Castellanos DH/LF
    8)Bohm -3B
    9)Marsh – CF

    My lineup for when Harper returns.
    That’s crazy … imagine If someone told you Castellanos would be batting 7th in 2021?
    Bohm has ability to move up if he can’t regain form

    1. Me? I bat Bohm between Harper and Schwarber. I want to see how opposing staffs pitch to him if he’s protected by the two most dangerous lefty bats in the lineup. And in spring games I bat Stott and his knack for working the walk lead off, and Turner with his pop 2nd. Either 1-2 is fine, but that would be my experiment.

      Stott 2b
      Turner ss
      Harper dh
      Bohm 3b
      Schwarber lf
      Realmuto c
      Hoskins/Hall 1b
      Castellanos rf
      Marsh cf

      1. …and in the 5-hole, Schwarber should get 40 HRs and 120 rbi instead of 40/80 in the leadoff spot. I see quite a few 3run taters launched onto Ashburn Alley.

      2. Not ready to give lead off spot to Stout until he show better OBP skills. Think he gets there but he’s not ready yet. I bat him 9th and he can be the wrap around leadoff guy. Similar to when teams would hit the pitcher 8th.

        1. Agreed. His ability to work a pitch count is already elite in my eyes, but that hasn’t yet translated to a high walk rate/OBP yet. Once he settles in as a .270+ hitter (which I still think is going to happen), that OBP should be pushing .400 with his eye, though.

          Let him keep working on it towards the bottom of the order and move him up as he makes progress.

  23. So, the slightly more than $27M that Turner is getting is actually less than the $ that came off the books from Segura and Didi leaving. So, there is still quite a bit of $ to spend. I understand the Rodon love. I just worry about his health. Saw him pitch this year, and, yes, he looked really good. I will be very interested to see what DD does. I think there will be 2 BP arms added, as well.

  24. This is what I mentioned last week. The Phillies would look to spread the money out over extra years (dead money) to keep the AAV under 30M. I got some push back. The reasoning for the push back made perfect sense. However, this is not a typical scenario. You had a guy who wanted to be here (close connections with Harper/Long/Schwarber, wanted to play on the east coast, and … like Zack Wheeler … is married to a Jersey girl). Turner/CAA had a number in mind (turns out it was 300M), and was willing to do what Harper did (spread the $$$ out to lower the AAV & help the club bring in even more talent) to win a championship.
    Dombrowski has a lineup deep enough to win over the next 2-3 years. He still needs to beef up the pitching depth for the reasons I stated earlier today (above). I have no doubt he will sign or trade for a difference making SP (not just an innings eater). The BP should be interesting. That is the one area Dombrowski does not have a very good track record over the course of his HOF career.

  25. I now expect a strike for a good quality starting pitcher very quickly now. Also I expect they have been working on to sign 3 relievers or possibly trade for one.

  26. Luxury Tax Threshold:
    2005-$128M
    2010-$170M
    2015-$189M
    2020-$208M
    2025-$241M
    2030-?????
    Turner’s 11 years is longer than one would want, however his AAV may be what the Philliea are counting on to be very manageable down the road.

  27. Don’t get stuck on “11” years. This is really a 9/$300M deal that was spread over 2 additional years. This team has a legit championship window of about 3-4 years right now, and maybe longer if the young pitchers can perform. It’s an exciting day and I think the SP is coming next. I’m looking at Quintana and Taillon as real possibilities.

      1. Turner is a world class athlete and is in great shape. He absolutely should age well plus he can play lots of positions if need be, having already played 2b and CF.

        1. Murray, I think we are all assuming he ages well. Even with that, the last 3-4 years of the deal (perhaps 4-5) are ridiculous. I am not against it per se, but DD has a way of not balancing these things out and pursuing multiple contracts that are too big and too long. I think very highly of him, but what I really, really don’t want is another WS run this year or next and our having to dig out from DD contracts for half a decade or so while the team goes in the _hitter. It’s a real thing and a potentially real problem. If you don’t believe me just ask some Tiger and Red Sox fans. DD is famous for some of his bad contracts.

          1. You mean like when DD gave David Price 7 years, $217M? Or when DD gave Miguel Cabrera 8 years, $240M?

            1. Uh yeah, Cabrera isn’t a pitcher. His was one of the worst contracts in MLB history. Putrid.

          2. I totally agree with you but I think it’s the cost of trying to win a championship these days, especially if you don’t get the lift from your system (that only the Braves seem to get). I think he’ll be very good for 5 years and decent for 2-3 more with little at the end. But I expect the cap to go up by then so that will soften the pain a little. If we win one, let alone two, championships in the next 5 years I’ll be fine with it.

            1. I like Turner but I think the Phillies need to win 2 titles in the next 5-6 years just to make up for that contract. After that, we’ll see how good the Phillies will be at the tail end of Harper’s and Turner’s contracts.

        2. And those previous SS weren’t world class athletes like Jimmy Rollins? Turner has to post 4 WAR annually just to be worth his contract. In the last 20 years, I think only Derek Jeter was able to post more than 4 WAR at age 35 (6.6).

          SS last season with 4+ WAR:

          Derek Jeter, age 35 (6.6)
          Barry Larkin, age 35 (5.1)
          Jimmy Rollins, age 35 (4.1)
          Brandon Crawford, age 34 (6.1) still active
          Ozzie Smith, age 37 (5.1) had a crazy amount of dWar

          Trea Turner will be around 30 when his FA contract starts with the Phillies.
          Turner could be the exception, but I seriously doubt it. History is not on his side.

          1. You are assuming Turner will be a shortstop for the entire length of his contract. Doubt that ever happens.
            IMO, after year 5 or 6 or so, he slides over to 2B….then the expectations change.

            1. Everybody talks about Turner changing positions, but I don’t recall Jimmy Rollins changing positions. If Turner is delivering 2 WAR in year 6, it doesn’t matter if he’s playing SS or 2B. He’s not playing up to his contract, and he’s not helping out the team at SS or 2B.

  28. Like Hinkie said above, if the number was $300M and a team like the Padres or Giants was going to go there over 9 years, it makes sense to get him at about $27M, by adding the 2 years, and increase our ability to get additional help, which we suspect will be Pitching. He is exactly what we needed, a leadoff hitter, with speed and power, batting RH, a good defender, and I think it is a great move. Agree with Murray, I think Taillon and Quintana are definitely on the radar.

  29. Keep in mind that Stott had a better fielding % at SS this past season than Turner did so the middle infield should be exceptional.

    Stott also played 47 games at 2B with 169 chances and zero errors. And with Sosa backing the two of them up, pitchers should be happy.

    I also believe that Dombrowski will be trading for pitching and not necessarily dip back into the FA well. They don’t call him Trader Dave for nothing.

    1. Trading what? They have few assets to trade. I think the 3 pitchers, Crawford and Rojas are untradeable. What else do we have?

    2. God, I hope you’re wrong. That’s like the worst thing that could happen. If you want this team to stay good, wish for them to break another luxury tax level and sign a big time pitcher. The best way for the Phillies to be great in 2026 and beyond is for their rotation to be led by guys like Abel and Painter. A good organization would not trade those guys. If they are traded expect 2026-2030 to be brutal around here.

  30. ciada, it is believed that Stott will be a plus defender at 2B. Guru, I get that you don’t like the deal. I am curious as to what your plan was to improve the team? Turner was my top priority, and the length does not bother me. I want to win the WS. Honestly, I don’t worry about 10/11 years from now, but the next 4-5. I seriously am interested in what you would have preferred as a plan. And, not in any argumentative way. I don’t troll, and I respect everyone’s opinion. I am just asking because you seem to be the one most opposed to the deal.

  31. 11 years? WOW I would love to know why the Phillies felt they had to go 11 years to this SS vs other bidders? Turner will be 40 at the end of the contract… This contract will be brutal the last three-four years..

    1. I suspect the 11 years was what Phillies wanted to keep AAV down and still give Turner the $$$ he was looking for.

    2. Hawkeye:
      Right now his contract is approx. 12% of the threshold for 2023.
      By 2030 or thereafter it will have fallen to below 10%.
      That may be what the Phillies are banking on…..threshold rising precipitously over the next 5-yr CBA.
      And if the MLBPA has their way in the negotiations.. ..it will soar.
      And owners like Cohen, Middleton, Steinbreanner, et al….they will not oppose it.

  32. File this away….the 2026 opening day CF for the Philadelphia Phillies will be Trea Turner. Just sayin’…that changes the trajectory of both his contract and his career.

    1. That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. His defense is decent at SS. His value is in his bat. If his bat declines, it doesn’t matter if he’s playing SS or CF. And I’m not sure why anybody thinks that a 33 year old Trea Turner can play an adequate CF. He hasn’t played CF since he was 23. And you want the Phillies to play him at CF 10 years later? He got paid to be a SS, he’s staying at SS.

  33. I was wondering if anyone could share info on Donny Sands? He had 3 at bats for the Phillies and sent back to LVIP. With Realmuto and others in the Catcher position, I don’t see another option to move up. Any thoughts?

    1. Liam, Sands is one of 4 catchers on the Phillies 40-man roster so I suspect he’s competing with Marchan and Stubbs for a back-up spot with Stubbs probably having the edge.

      He’s pre-arbitration which makes him cheap and he has options so suspect he’s ticketed for AAA LV in 2023 and will be injury protection.

  34. I think adding Trea Turner is beyond a fantastic add. Yes – there was a big cost – but given the competition and posturing one can assume DD had to sweeten the pot in order to get it done. Face it – its a Harper redo. Frankly, I think Howard, on this site, might have some thoughts on the contract that could put some perspective on it. By 2030 etc. the cap will be 300 million so Trea’s contract and him playing 2b will be less restrictive. DD won’t likely care as he will be in the Bahamas on the beach with Snoop dog or something. So there is that….

    Lastly – given the price of pitching – there is no way I trade any young starting pitcher, particularly any of the big 3 the team has. They could collectively be worth 300++ million in salary savings going forward. I would not be surprised if DD is calculating that – if you draft and raise the pitchers (like they have) you buy the bats – that is what they are doing – so why would you trade from your prime assets ? If anything, I might emphasize more pitching.

    1. Most analyst expected Turner to try and best Seager’s AAV….$35M in 2023.
      Turner wants local longevity with the family…..apparently different strokes for different folks.
      I think tomorrow Judge will make his decision. Could be more of the same….9 plus years.

  35. I LOVE this signing. LOVE it.

    The next 4-5 years are this team’s peak. Sometimes you have to go all in and they are all in baby! Bryce has to be pumped. The whole squad has to be pumped. What an absolutely elite lineup.

    Here is how I would bat them:
    1. Turner
    2. Harper (same logic why Trout bats second, he is the best hitter on the team and you get more ABs at 2 than at 4)
    3. if Castellanos is his 2021 version then him, if not then JT here. (note, I would still try to sell Castellanos to another club if possible)
    4. Schwarber
    5. Opposite of who bats 3rd
    6. Rhys
    7. Bohm
    8. Stott
    9. Marsh

    The best Phillies lineup that I have ever seen in my lifetime. Unreal. This is going to be so much fun!

    I see some pearl clutching about what happens in 2030…stop the bed wetting. Who knows what will happen in the future. Some of our prospects might turn out to be elite and Turner might turn out to be a damn good second baseman by then or maybe a corner OF. who cares. This is about maximizing our window and that is right now!

    Don’t focus on 8/9 years from now. You can’t predict the future. Just enjoy it.

    Tonight we go dancing on our own!

    1. Thank you v1!!!!!! Well said. If he signed somewhere else for a similar deal there would be people complaining about not matching the deal and complaining about having to settle for swanson.

      No one knows how he will age. Much like JT he is a very good athlete and his body very well could hold up for much longer. That’s why teams spend millions on the training/health department. We got Trea Freaking Turner!!! Everyone take a chill pill, it’s not our money, the owner has deep pockets, and enjoy the ride.

    2. read your analysis…so pumped I want to run from the OC to SD to hug DD… ENJOY these next few years. Have to say it was weird talking with my 18yr old and figuring he’ll be 30 the year Trea’s contract expires.

  36. Phillies currently have the sixth-best odds to win the 2023 World Series on FanDuel Sportsbook. Here’s a look at the top teams:

    Astros……..+550
    Dodgers….+600
    Mets ………+900
    Yankees….. +950
    Braves……. +950
    Phillies…… +1200
    …of course this nay change for the Yanks if Judge decides to head to another team….and the Dodgers somehow, in some mystery way, do not get the shortstop they want and also not get Judge.

    1. how about 3 of the top-6 from the NL East. Nasty division and won’t miss the unbalanced schedule in 2023.

      1. Will be tough…good thing the extra team now gets into the playoffs….like this past season ……I believe that is the case, correct?

      2. DD is going to have to navigate this correctly.
        Mets seem to be able to spend into oblivion and the braves have the core, can draft, and are apparently ready to send. So will see

        1. Braves lose Swanson… and with Freeman gone, their heart may be gone. Still have good players – but I’ll take our core heart anytime…

  37. Romus, I see a path, with a good SP signing and a couple of BP arms, that we move ahead of the Braves and Mets. And, if Andrew Painter comes up during the season , and gives us something like Javier gave the Astros, that is a huge bonus that the odds makers are not considering. And, I like that we are behind them in the eyes of the odds makers.

    1. Right now the Phillies are better than the Mets. Depends on what else the Phillies/Mets do to get pitching between now and ST.

      1. I just cannot see Verlander having two consecutive season like he did in 2022.
        His ERA+ was the best in baseball and the best he ever had in his whole career…same with his FIP @ 2.49…again best in his career.
        We could very well see the play-off Verlander

        1. Romus, I just got in. Wow. 11 years. But I am glad the Mets have Verlander and Mad Max. I may be wrong, but I do not see them taking the Mets to the Promised Land in the next two years. Both really got hit around at the end of the season. They both may be good going through the lineup once each game but for 85 million or so I would hope for more if I am the Mets. I think both are or are very near 40. Not everyone is Tom Brady.
          BTW everyone is wow over 11 years. I mentioned awhile back that the predictions were mostly for 8 to 10 years. 11 is close to 10.

        2. Verlander should still be very good but there are some signs of regression. His K rates have been dropping and innings pitched coming off TJ surgery including playoffs has to be a concern similar to Nola/Wheeler’s workload in 2022.

          Also don’t think the Mets defense is as good as Houston’s so that will have an impact.

  38. Bring back the stolen base. I say Phillies 2023 version steal 145 sacks. Up from 105 in
    ’22. That’s alot of triples and doubles. Admittedly that counts an appearance by Rojas who steals 10 at least….Trea with 35 – 40….

    1. RU…exactly, SBs will be high, 3 inch bigger bags, pitchers cannot throw over high multiple times.
      Should be a different game than what we have been seeing for the last decade or so.

  39. a lot to brain dump, you’ll probably craved for Phillies talk like me right about now. What a Time to be a Phillies phan… incredible.

    Gotta bat Turner lead off. Imo you negate his value if your clogging up The bases on him. I can maybe see Stott ahead of him, since he could probably go 1st to 3rd on a single much easier than schwarber.

    On his speed. I think he ages well. If he is as fast as he is now, he’ll still be up there 10 years from now. He won’t slip that far, if he works at it . I think sports medicine helps & Harper.

    Forecasting, I don’t care about years 9-11… lol it’s also 2022… but he is a career .300 WITH the shift. I bet he ages decently. 41 isn’t like it was 30 years ago. Sports medicine has really helped players extend careers. Look if im dead wrong, whatever … lol it’s 2022! Just don’t by season tickets that year!

    Lastly, in 10 years,.. sadly, 27 mil is probably going to be the equivalent of a 10 million dollar deals.

    Get the rings now, have incredible years, and when the team
    Is rebuilding we can have a final farewell … like the killer Bees – Biggo & Bagwell.

    Imo l, they need to keep Suarez, Painter, Abel, and McGarry … everyone else is on the table. That’s probably unrealistic BUT, unless someone else emerges … you need a few $700,000 player who are producing when you have 27+ million elsewhere

    1. “………you need a few $700,000 player who are producing when you have 27+ million elsewhere”…..and that is why they have Darick Hall.

    2. Tac3- you got me with, “what a time to be a Phillies fan….incredible..”
      Indeed it is – from that gritty tough playoff performance to the WS, and now this signing. DD knows his audience and Zolecki even said it. Priceless.

      1. RU- the hype is real. It just keeps going. It might be time… time to buy season tickets, partial of course. I’m cheap. Middleton doesn’t need my money, but I hope he is rewarded, encouraged to spend more :). Plus, I need to be in person, at one of these playoff games. I tried like hell, but apparently my 1st born wasn’t enough!

        1. Luckily for you, partial season tickets still get you first dibs on playoff tickets. Just grab the Sunday game package to enjoy afternoon baseball once every couple of weeks. Then get ready for a sore throat and arm from all the yelling and rally towel waving in the postseason.

          Just hope you don’t have to sit through the Phils getting no-hit… like some of us…

          1. That’s the plan! And … how many times did you yell “ya freaking bums!” I’d be upset for sure. Painful to watch.

  40. And, Romus, if we get anything like career Castellanos back next season, we are even that much better. And, I can’t believe the guy we saw this season is the real guy. I fully believe he bounces back.

    1. matt…I think everyone in Philly is hoping for that to happen. And at least if he starts in RF, he will have had the whole ST this time and not be thrown out there at mid-April after Harper hurt his arm.

  41. The other thing about Turner — yes, 2023 will be his “age 30 season.” By convention June 30th is used as the cutoff — whatever your age on that day, is your season age. His birthday is June 30th. If he were a day younger, then 2023 would be his “age 29 season.”

    Also, FWIW, ZIPS projects 30 WAR from Turner under this contract, with most coming in the first half (16 WAR over the next three seasons): https://blogs.fangraphs.com/win-now-phillies-charge-ahead-with-300-million-deal-for-trea-turner/

    1. Those Zip projections look fairly accurate in my opinion. It’s a good read and an objective look at the contract. And yes, if this deal doesn’t pan out, DD will be gone and the contract will be somebody else’s problem.

  42. Harper, such a huge signing… has opened the flood gates… Middleton has basically done everything you could ask of him. Such an awesome owner.

    Harper, has brought us Realmuto, Wheeler, Schwarber, Castellanos, and now Turner..

    Who doesn’t want to play here? The Phillies are the NL Yankees. Lmao…. You think Nola resigns? Think he wants to face the Phillies Lineup? Think he doesn’t want that run support?

    1. About ten years ago J-Roll was asked what the team would look like if a certain minority owner named Middleton acquired a majority stake. His response – as I recall , was something like – “this place would look like GEORGE Steinbrenner SOUTH.” ” He would acquire whatever the team needed, whenever needed, no holes barred.” I paraphrase, but that was the gist of it.

      1. And this is why lots of people hated the Yankees. The nucleus of the team wasnt home grown Yankees.

        It flopped for the yankees many times.

        The focus on this site will have to switch from minor league talent to Phillies with 5 or more years on their 10 yrs contracts.

  43. One other thing to keep in mind is that within the last year, the Phillies have significantly improved their defense up the middle with the addition of Marsh, Stott, and now Turner.

    Compare that to start of last year with Didi, Segura, and Odubel.

    Now just need to fix 1b 🙂

    1. 3up, I am excited about Turner joining the team, but the numbers do not suggest Turner/Stott will be a defensive improvement from Segura/Stott
      If I cut and pasted the below link correctly it shows Turner within 1 of NL worst for Shortstops with 16 errors last year. Of course, not shown is how many chances the different players had, but still, Stott by comparison is listed with 7 errors, which is within 2 of the lowest (5 errors)
      https://scores.nbcsports.com/mlb/getleaders.asp?rank=324

    2. I Cant understand how people think Marsh is good centerfielder, He got mention for left field for gold glove, But what i saw in center, didnt qualify him as anything special in center, its still a big problem, imo plus will he hit?

        1. It’s also worth mentioning that, not only was he transitioning back to CF from LF, he was learning a new park on the fly. Heck, he even switched leagues, so he had almost no familiarity with ANY of the parks he played in for us.

          The ball reads differently I’m CF than the corners, and getting used to the park dimensions helps with reading jumps and bounces off the wall.

          AND all of this was happening while presumably working with Long on his hitting. He’s historically been a very solid defender. Give him a chance to get acclimated.

          1. DanK…as usual very key points you bring up on the defensive aspect on Marsh.
            I have watched film from his HS QB/DB/WR days in Georgia….he is a well rounded athlete with exceptional speed for a guy his size…height wise.

          2. I am basing it on what i have seen, just dont see him as a good hitter or fielder, lets see how he does this yr

    1. $10M for a 35 year old who delivered 0.7 WAR last season? It’s a good time to be a pitcher.

      1. Part of it is expectation to bounce back, part of it is the Baltimore tax. It’s been a long time since players wanted to be on the Orioles.

        Especially pitchers, who get the distinct pleasure of pitching against the Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays frequently.

  44. I went back and looked at some of the ESPN guys predictions.
    Turner for 10 and 300 were mentioned by a few of the guys.
    They were pretty close to being about perfect.

    1. The idea that Turner turns 41 in the middle of the season rather than before the season may be the reason he got 11 yrs. But with Harper and Turner being around for 10 yrs, the team has more of an import feel to it rather than the home grown feel of ruiz, Rollins, Hamels, Utley, Howard etc.

      Yes, they have Hoskins, Bohm, Stott and Nola Dominguez, but y are not looked at as the anchors with the long term deals to Harper and Turner.

  45. One of the things that I wonder about is the structure of some of these long term contracts. I understand stretching the length to lower the AAV, since that is how MLB calculates the luxury tax hit. On the other hand, it does not dictate how that money is divied up over time. If I was negotiating the contract, I would want to front load it when the player is at his peak with later years being a much lower annual outlay, especially if the player has a no opt out clause. From the player’s point of view, present money is always more valuable than future money (yes I know that tax considerations complicate this, but at the sums we are talking about even in the later years the tax will be at the marginal rate in any case). He is not going to opt out as the annual income decrease because he can’t. In the later years, if the Phillies want to trade him, a sweetener should make that feasible and there is less money to eat to satisfy the acquiring team. So, front loading a no opt out contract should be a win-win. I don’t think following an NL pennant, cash flow is going to be a consideration. It would be really interesting to hear both the details of the contract (as well as Bryce’s) and the logic behind the structure.

    1. MLL…….I do believe the traditional ‘small-market teams’ will tend to lean in that direction with superstar free agent signings.
      Case in point…Twins and Correa from last year……high AAV early own with earlier than normal opt-outs.
      However, large market teams, big spenders, have their reputation to uphold and may not want to appear to be on the cheap side of things.
      And thus you will see the Lindor/Harper/Turner/Pujols/Seager et al contracts.
      The lone exception could be the Dodgers…..sans Betts….but Friedman likes those 4 or 5 yr hi-AAV earlier on contract offerings……then again he also has a well-oiled farm system that delivers prospects every year to backfill vacancies.

  46. As for the NL East, I would rather have the Phillies roster right now than either the Braves, whose organization still develops players better, or the Mets who have two 40 year old SPs making $40M each as their marquee players leading a cast of talented but unproven winners. Funny, who gets opening day honors, Verlander or MadMax? They may have to arm wrestle to decide…with their left arms.

    I see Dombrowski going after either Taillon or Walker as that mid rotation arm without the QO. And the White Sox are reportedly taking calls for Liam Hendriks. I wonder if they need a replacement for Jose Abreu.

    1. mark….”I wonder if they need a replacement for Jose Abreu.”….I see where you are going there.

          1. I LOL’d at that, 3up! They were being very clever but as much as I like Darick, I would do that trade for Hendricks. Even add Erik Miller. OK! I am joking, and on a serious note, DD said the team has “very little appetite” to give up another draft pick, so I think the focus will be on non-QO FAs. Taillon, Walker, Jose Quintana, who was my guess for our focus. And, probably 2 BP arms. Trade targets I don’t know. Hinkie usually has a very good list of trade options. He was the first one I remember to name Alvarado.

            1. They were saying in one of the articles that the one area where DD has not really hit on is the BP. Plus, so many changes with those guys from year to year. I have always liked that somehow the Rays seem to always have young guys who throw hard and have decent control in the BP. Maybe the Phillies can find some guys like that. I am still thinking at least a couple BP additions and maybe 3 for good measure. Seems like that always turns into an issue for the team one way or the other.

      1. Romus, I saw last night that Hendricks is available. Good idea Mark.
        Think they said Hendricks is around 14M.

          1. mark…looking at the WSox set up…I think they will be going with Vaughn as their first baseman, main reason they let Abreu go to make room for Vaughn.

  47. Here is an interesting link which compares teams WARS by position.
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2022
    Phil’s starting pitching is actually tie with Mets at #4. Belief pitching is ! Middling at 14 if I recall and overall pitching was I think 7 or 8..

    Catching DEP they led the pack. Cf, rf, ss , 3b they were ranked 22 to 25 position.

    2nd base and lf were about 14/15. 1b and dh we’re 8 ,- 11 ish?

    They made big improvements
    at m.i. during the year and all fielding positions should rank equal or higher than this past year. Cf and rf were most notably lacking.

  48. With the team pushing the spending limit I would expect some trades for quality but cheaper pitching. Relievers are the most likely to be acquired via trade.

  49. A very interesting story by Matt Gelb in the Athletic. DD, Fuld and Topper flew to Florida before Thanksgiving to talk to Turner and his Wife. It appears the SD offer was genuine, and was for more $ than ours, even including Cali State tax. $300M was the magic #. Also, Bogaerts was not #2, Correa was, in the team’s evaluations. And, they have met with a number of other potential new Phillies. There is, they feel, a real interest in us because “they could feel the excitement through the TV from the fans.” Loved reading that. I hope it helps us with a Pitcher or 2.

    1. Matt … agree with Gelb’s take. Harper/Dombrowski/Middleton have made Philadelphia a priority destination in MLB where players, and even coaches (Kevin Long & Bobby Dickerson) want to be here.
      On another note … I’ve mentioned the closer/late inning reliever market should be fascinating this winter. The supply/demand is awfully lopsided in the demand direction. I think the White Sox see this and are looking to make a killing on a Liam Hendricks sale. Ser-Antn’y has closer stuff, but still has to prove he can be an effective closer on back-to-back nights. A guy like Hendricks could be a game changer here. It would probably take Griff McGarry, one of Maton or Sosa, and a younger prospect (or two) to get the Phillies in the Hendricks sweepstakes. The guy I really like from the White Sox is Aaron Bummer, but it’s very unlikely they’d trade him.
      Don’t know how much Dombrowski is looking to spend in the pen, but Taylor Rogers could be a really good fit (LH … high K#s … lots of closer experience/success … price could[?] be affected because of a rough second half of 2022 season w/Milwaukee where he gave up too many HRs).
      I’d also check in with Alex Reyes. Reyes was non-tendered because he’s still working his way back from shoulder surgery. He may not be ready until later this season, but he should be affordable.

      1. While I think they will add a reliever or two, there are some really good arms in the minors that are going to get some play very soon. Morales turned the corner in the AFL and I expect him on the team by May. Andrew Baker has a huge arm. He throws as hard or harder than Dominguez (Baker sits like 97-101 – he throws pure gas). Once he can flash a consistent breaking pitch he will proceed quickly through the minors. Also, I expect McGarry to begin his big league career as a reliever – just call it a hunch.

        1. Don’t mind bringing up a pen arm from the farm, but I don’t want any trying out for high leverage situations. Let’s nail down a legit closer and remove the uncertainty.

        2. I was looking over minor league arms too and Baker is the primary lower arm that jumped out at me just from stats.

          A bat that jumps out is Simmons, but that’s another position……

          I don’t see any unknown other pitchers (other than Baker) who aren’t already on the radar as possible Phil in for the bullpen. Plassmeyer and Sanchez had good AAA years and Appel, Damon Jones, miller and a couple others are thought of a potential help outs.

          Skirrow had good AAA numbers but doesn’t showw an excelling minor league history.

          Wasn’t Enrique de Los Sanchez a rule 5 pick a few yrs ago? He had a great yr last yr.

          Donnie Sands looks to have respectable pop, suitable for a platoon with Stubb’s should J. t get injured.

          I’m wondering if they could milk another yr out of Hand and/or Robertson while hoping for improvements and health from Bellati Coonrod, Brogdon while adding another outside BP arm or two and stepping up Plassmeyer and Sanchez. I think they have rightfully penciled in Falter a #5. He has nothing to prove at AAA unless working on another pitch for half a season.

          Knoebel was serviceable when healthy. Any word on his health?

          Familia and Norwood gave good efforts but underperformed.

          The loss of ohoppe was weakened the farm strength for trading or supplying ML fill ins and new talent.

          1. A lot of the guys you mentioned – including Appel, Jones and Sanchez – I just don’t ever see having much of a major league career. Plassmeyer is a soft tosser who has not a ton of projection. But Baker, Morales, McGarry and Billy Sullivan all have good arms and a few of them could be big contributors soon.

            1. I would tend to generally agree, But they might have a few serviceable yrs as. Bullpen help. Appel has a good walk ratio and Jones was doing well til injured.

              Re Plassmeyer, If Jamie Moyer can do it why not hupim? !o!.

              I keep thinking of how good a year de Los Santos had and how Sanchez might be a yr away from that type of help.

              As we all know, there is more to pitching than throwing 95-100, but it helps.

  50. Matt, I just saw it said Padres offered more than Phillies did for Turner. So, the East Coast wish must have played a part for the Phillies.
    A player would have tohave some interest after watching the Phillies in the playoffs. They kept all of us glued to our seats till the end. Fans were great. I still cannot quite get that they were only able to grab the 1st game of WS at home. I thought at least 2 wins were in order.

    1. Teams like the Padres…Mets…Blue Jays…they tend to clang the big brass ones between their legs but they don’t seem to have the gravitas to put it all together. And for my own gratification, they aren’t exactly among my favorite clubs. Lots of bravado with little to show for it. Cohen, Preller, Rogers…

  51. Just returned from Colorado where I spent an amazing weekend with my son and 2 grandsons.

    I was obviously delighted and not surprised to learn of the Turner signing. I heard DD is not keen on adding another player with a QO. I say at this point who cares he may as well push all JMs chips to the center of the table.

    It’s not like he would be losing his 1st round pick and having another NC Stater to fill a slot when they lose either Nola or Wheeler fits perfectly. That said I wouldn’t outbid another club for him rather I’d like to be the place he wants to play.

  52. I just saw where it said Phillies lost their 2nd and 5th round picks.
    It said if they get another it will be 3rd and 6th plus $2M in international money.
    I thought only one pick was involved on guys with QO.

    1. Don … Phillies lose the extra pick, and double the J2 money because they were over the LTT this season.

      1. Thanks Hinkie. Said if they sign another QO guy it would also be 2 picks.
        I forgot about the LTT. DD said unlikely they would do that. Still really makes no sense to penalize any team for signing a QO guy. It was the player who turned it down.

        1. It’s an attempt to help the small market teams as well as suppressing FA salaries.

          The idea is that the team that developed the player, (or at least had his rights most recently) should have a leg up on signing the free agent. It makes sense in a promotional sense, because stars staying on one team builds fan interest and makes compelling narratives.

          As for the penalties, it’s a convenient excuse to bring some of the player’s negotiating power down. The signing team can put a value on the list pick(s) and subtract that from the player’s potential contract.

          So small markets get the appearance of trying to keep their stars, large markets get to suppress FA salaries a bit, and MLB gets to try keeping parity by taking away picks which usually means preventing dynasties (unless you’re the Dodgers, apparently…). Only ones losing are the players who simply had the audacity to be ridiculously good and want to be compensated appropriately.

  53. CBS has up a list of 10 possible Rule 5 picks.
    Miller is listed as number 5.
    Seven of the 10 are pitchers.
    Seems many have same issues. Control and availability.

  54. Is there someone we may have our eyes on? I have seen Miller’s name come up for other teams. Not getting into that issue again, just that he is on more than one list as a potential pick up. On the Closer vs late inning RP question. DD did say that they like to mix and match, so probably are not looking at a pure Closer. That may be just a smoke screen, but he has been pretty forthright. Hinkie mentioned the guy I have also really liked for us, Taylor Rogers. Also, Andrew Chafin is a guy I like.

    1. I was thinking about a Rule 5 pickup, but my guess that based on where the Phils will pick, they don’t. Most of the high upside relievers will likely be gone by the time they pick and to your point, many have the same issues as Miller. If they were set on getting a high upside reliever with control issues, keeping Miller would have been the better option.

      1. Don’t be too focused on draft position. If the Phils have their eyes on someone, they can make a deal with another team that isn’t planning to draft anyone. Happens semi-regularly.

  55. One thing I especially love about Turner: he knows how to slide. Possibly the best traditional slider in baseball. Aside from the shift and pace of game, the single thing I detest most about modern baseball is the head-first slide. And don’t even mention to me the head-first slide into first base, which has frequently put television screens in my house at risk of destruction by thrown objects.

    1. Back in the day that is the way all of us were taught to slide. That pop up slide. Now the guy’s headfirst have to get up, dust themselves off, get the dirt out of their eyes and then see where the throw may have gone. I am only kidding but I agree on the headfirst slide issue.

    1. Padres and Preller aren’t doing themselves any PR favors by putting it out there that they blew by the Phillies offer by $41M. It only makes it sound like they’re a 2nd rate destination in terms of organization, spewing sour grapes because they gave it the old college try. But Dombrowski plays in the pros😎

      1. Also interesting that the rumors indicate that SD is not in on any of the other FA SS in the market. Seems odd that they would go $342M for Turner but not be interested in any of the others.

        1. Yep, strange strategy. Did hear they were more enamored with Turner’s future flexibility, playing 2b, CF, etc. But I don’t get the drop out of all SS markets.

      2. Turner had said all along…wanted East Coast….even the trade to LA a few years back from the Nats…he wasn’t thrilled about it..one reason the 2B position was what he had to play while Seager played out his last year.
        AJ Preller seems to read some situations poorly.
        And if he did get Turner….how in the world is he going to bring back Soto and Snell in two years for mega dollar contracts….and keeping the oft-injured Tatis and his salary since huis trade value has ticked down a few notches with his shoulder issue and his off-the-field issue.

    2. v1, I saw that this morning. It did not say how much money or years. Simply that SD offered more than Phillies did for Turner.

    3. $341,000,000.00

      Evidently being a full time poster to blogs does not pay as well as being a MLB player

  56. Report just out that the SD offer eclipsed $341M, the Lindor deal. That is something, and says a lot about his desire to play here. Not that $300M is shabby! O’s give Nomar Mazara a Minor League deal. Am I mistaken, or was he the Texas OF that was a rumored part of the Cole Hamels deal? We got Nick Williams instead, did we not?

        1. From what I remember the Phillies chose Williams over Brinson but Mazara was the one they wouldn’t deal.

          Brinson would’ve been a great get given the player he ended up being moved for.

  57. Official: Yoshida will be posted tomorrow morning at 8…MLB teams will have until Jan 20 to sign him. Maybe Harper flies over to say ‘hi’?

  58. If a team loses draft picks due to FA signings, does the team’s signing bonus budget remain intact or is it reduced accordingly? If not, we can sign the picks for more and take better prospects.

    1. The money assigned to the lost draft slots is also lost. Every year the Phillies forfeited a pick, they also forfeited the money assigned to the pick.

  59. Denny, others on here are much better at this than I am, but my understanding is that we lose the slot amounts for those picks from our spending allotment.

      1. Matt is correct. You only get the slot money for draft picks you make. If you lose a pick(s), you lose the bonus dollars that come with it/them.
        Also … in reference to your question concerning rule 5 targets, I posted a 3 guys I’d like to see the Phillies take a flier on a few weeks ago. They were:

        🔹️ Antoine Kelly … LHP Rangers
        🔹️ MD Johnson … RHP Marlins
        🔹️ Aaron Schunk … 3B Rockies

        1. Hinkie….maybe Dombrow. will make trades with a small market team or two for their Rd A or B picks and the slot money that goes with it…..or is that still not availed this season.

          1. Romus … As far as I know, teams can still trade competitive balance draft picks but still can’t deal for extra J2 money. Problem is … teams now value those draft picks (and bonus slots) a lot more than they did 6 or 7 years ago when clubs gave them up to larger market clubs for eating bad contracts.

            1. Yeah I can see the value in them now.
              In the past a club like the Os would take on a minor league pitching prospect who was in AA ball or higher for one of their say Round B picks….in the general area of 75 or 80th pick.
              It was easier making trades with Round B teams vs the Round A teams due to the proximity of the higher picks and the higher slot money.

              Now that J2 money would really come in handy….be it $250K or $500K.
              Cannot understand why that has to go away.

    1. Yes, as Matt noted, the $$$ from that slot goes with the pick so no advantage of having extra cash to spread around.

  60. Old friend, Vinny Velo to the Pirates. Does anybody not think that the Judge offer that he accepts is $400M?

      1. I think Giants’ Farhan Zaidi makes the biggest splash today….Judge and then later Correa or Bogaerts.
        Judge could be offered $400M

  61. v1again got me thinking when he mentioned that this is the best Phillie lineup in his lifetime. As someone who has been a phan since 1964, I have seen more than my share of solid lineups [1976, 1986, 1993, 2007-2011 and 2021]. That said, the greatest Phillie offensive lineup I have witnessed was the 1977 team that featured the best combo years of Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski, the dynamic speed/hitting skills of Garry Maddox and Bake McBride, the solid middle of the diamond duo of Larry Bowa and Ted Sizemore, the great platoon 1st base pair of Richie Hebner/Davy Johnson and an incredible offensive/defensive bench featuring Jay Johnstone, Jerry Martin, Tommy Hutton, Tim McCarver and Ollie Brown.

    From June 15, the day they acquired the mercurial McBride, till the end of the season that team was a staggering offensive crew. From scoring 10+ runs four games in a row to a dominant 13 game winning streak in the middle of August, that team finished with a 70-33 record over the last 3.5 months and dominated the National League.

    All this said, I feel this lineup POTENTIALLY has the ability to become an ever greater offensive force than that ’77 team was, something I never thought I would see. Of course, the ’77 team didn’t have the luxury of the DH but if they had the DH then, a combo of Johnstone/Johnson/Brown would have been effective but not overwhelming. Certainly not in the area code of Harper or Castellanos.

    In my opinion, Castellanos is very much the wild card here. As someone who witnessed his offensive prowess in Detroit and Cincinnati I refuse to believe he will not bounce back in a big way. I suspect he was wayyy more injured than was reported but simply played through it, admirable in my mind. A lineup featuring such offensive luminaries as Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Castellanos [the good version], Hoskins [I would NOT trade him], Realmuto and Bohm will be a pitcher’s daily nightmare.

    As someone who always felt the ’77 team was the greatest Phillie team I ever saw, I think this team has the potential to be ever better offensively. I absolutely loved the Turner signing, he fits this team and the city like a nicely fitted glove.

    1. That too is when I became a Phillies fan. Kind of a disappointing introduction to MLB. But I could get the Phillies on the radio here in Indiana late at night. I began teaching during the mid 70s. Those teams were awesome. If not for the Big Red Machine Phillies might have a couple more WS titles. I agree this current lineup can challenge the late 70s teams.

    2. Yeah they (’77 Team) arguably the best lineup. The 1993 team IMO was probably the most impressive roster. They had solid starting players but the bench was just as good and they did several platoons because they were that good. They had 4 hitters over 300 in the line up and 5 of the 6 man bench all hit over 280 with Incaviglia at 274 but had 24 hrs in a platoon role.

  62. I’m not an accountant – and still think Turner chose where he wanted to go and who he wanted to play with – but Cal taxes at 13% may have made the two offers closer than the true difference of 42-43 million. Just sayin’….

    I think Preller couldn’t get over the fact that he was the GM who traded Turner to Nationals way back when in one of his let’s trade the minor leagues for a pennant.
    It looks an ego trip for him and a round tripper for the Phillies.

    1. Yup, makes it 296mil vs 284 million … so 12 mil dollar
      Difference to make the wife happy .. or just about 1 million a year …. Makes sense. Happy wife happy life.

      1. As players reach late 20s/early 30s, and with growing families…and already superstars, with fairly large bank accounts already nestled somewhere, the location and team culture become more of a priority it seems.
        Remember Cliff Lee and his wife’s preference of Philly over NY.

      2. I didn’t do the math, so maybe you already took this into account. But they aren’t taxed on their home team’s location, but on the location of each individual game. So it’s not a difference of 162 or 81 games tax-wise. Obviously they’ll have more games in CA due to it being their home team and division. But Phillies players also pay increased taxes when visiting certain clubs.

        At least that’s what I’ve been told by multiple people (including a player).

        1. My math is off then, reconfiguring it – should be close to a 22 million difference .. on what Turner left on the table. It’s not exact but likely close enough. Well, having your wife happy is priceless, for 22 million plus all the extra money she will spend with her family & friends 😂. That’s going to cost him, being in such a short distance to them but … looks like he can “weather “ that wallet storm

    2. SD has a ‘heart / chemistry’ issue. Lots of talent, but limited gamers. Highlighted by Tatis and whatever he has going.

      Turner would have impacted that…

  63. Anyone bummed Texas got Andrew Heaney? He was never on my wish list, and I know he can rack up Ks, but Taillon and Walker and Quintana appeal much more to me. He is getting 2 years/$25M, with various incentives that can add up to a lot, and an opt out.

    1. I wouldn’t have minded taking that gamble, but as long as we get a sensible option in his place I won’t be upset about it.

      1. I think Bailey Falter is a better commodity than Heaney. Look at the stats and you can save millions.
        I get so mad when a guy bounces around MLB and looks like an innings water then we pay millions for mediocrity and then complain that we never have any pitching prospects. Grrrrrr.

        1. If his slider remains the weapon it was last year, Heaney is a potential number 2 starter playing on a MOR salary. That’s why I wouldn’t have minded the gamble. Even being generous, it’s hard to see Falter as more than a 4. There’s certainly value in that, but there’s no comparison between the two.

          Besides, they weren’t mutually exclusive. Both Heaney and Falter could have been in the rotation at the same time. It’s a moot point now, obviously. Walker is a fine addition. And Falter will still get his shot.

  64. The rumor circuit cracks me up. Earlier today I read on MLBTR that Andrew Heaney had multiple 3 year offers from teams, waiting for a 4 year offer. Well, now the report later this afternoon is that he’s signing with Texas…..to a 2 year deal. Huh? Talk about just puttin’ stuff out there…

  65. You are right, mark. Jon Hetman was tried so hard to be first on Judge, he called him Arson. No time to fix a typo. Then 2 minutes later, oops, Heyman walks it back. SF has not heard yet from Judge.

    1. Should we now have a lottery to determine who the Pirates will trade him to?

      It could be the reverse of the draft lottery where the good teams get better odds.

    1. I like it. I hated facing him on the Mets. Always gave us fits. And no loss of draft pick. Wish it was 3 years but you always over pay in free agency.

  66. Tajuan Walker 4 years-72m. Looks like we got our #3. Will be interesting to see how the staff rounds out now. Thoughts on signing?

    1. 18 million per year isn’t bad. 3 years would have been better but I suspect 3 years doesn’t get the job done.

      Gives them a solid 3 or 4 and fills rotation pending arrival of Painter/Abel.

    2. It’s a decent deal. The Phillies probably had to give him the 4th year to sign, but he’s still only 30, and he’s been fairly durable the last 2 years. The SO rate is a bit of a concern but we’ll see what happens.

  67. Dombrowski and company outdid themselves. I believe this is a terrible signing: too many years, way too much money, and for a guy who is hurt way too often. This is the kind of signing that has gotten DD fired from his previous jobs.

    1. Lol. Yeah I don’t think that signing a 30yo #4 starter with a sub 4 ERA and FIP is getting DD fired. Come on. Maybe a year longer than hoped but he started 29 games each of the last two years. He is a ground ball pitcher. He will be a fine #4 pitcher on our staff. Hopefully Painter makes him a #5 starter.

      1. Totally agree. This is a great signing of a pitcher with back to back solid healthy seasons, without an attached loss of draft pick. 4 years is fine, he’ll be here for awhile.

    2. Maybe they are planning on someone getting hurt? Nolas life era is 3.6, walkers is 3.9.
      Maybe they are planning to not tender Nola next year, for some inner personality or reasons of principle? Never heard anything, other than him not taking the jab, but seems there needs to be a reason. Otherwise, I can’t figure it out .

      If they do plan to extend Nola, I guess they could trade Falter, Painter and Abel and McGarry for Sale since they won’t be needing them for the next few years, unless that is, they outpitch Falter, Walker or Suarez,. and create the necessity to trade them and eat most of walkers contract.

      Or, Falter could become long relief?

      Walker could eventually be #5 if Painter, Falter or Abel step up.

      Microwave baseball, I want it and I want it NOW!

      I VAgeee that this is a suspect/iffy deal.

    3. Or maybe walker pitches out of #3 hole, moving ranger to #4. I don’t think Suarez will top $18 mill in arbitration.

      He (walker) had one poor year in the last 5. The others were all sub 4.0 to @3.5.

      I like for them to give opportunity to the farm kids that they have developed. But perhaps they are set to help in the bullpen or as trade material?

      But the pattern these last couple years, other than Bohm and Stott who were #1 picks is to raid the farm for instant needs and sign free agents.

      We’ve seen it before and elsewhere. Doesn’t seem sustainable.

      1. DD hasn’t raided the farm at all. His most “egregious” use of prospect capital has been to trade Brown for Robertson, and that move is plenty defensible.

        He literally has not touched our upper tier of prospects with the exception of a blocked catcher in exchange for a starting CF with years of control. Which is the perfect way to trade (give from our excess to acquire a need).

        As for the young pitchers, they’ll get their shot. There’s an open competition for the #5 spot, there will be injuries to fill in for, and there’s also the option of the bullpen. Ranger initially earned his playing time by being a swing man and now here we are guaranteeing his spot in the rotation. The young guys need to manage their work loads, so a similar path could be perfect for them.

        1. Thanks for the input. It makes the trades more tenable.

          Some of these discussions remind me of the analytics and evaluations in fantasy baseball drafts. They aren’t that important, but brain exercise.

          Ohoppe is angels #1 prospect after finishing thebseason strong. Yes, he was blocked, and I suppose it was a somewhat equal trade. Just can’t imagine there wasn’t a equal or other cf options while Ohoppe would increase his value with a full AAA season, or even making j. t. expendable
          or movable by ’24 (I know it’s sacrilidge).

          By the way, does anyone else think that the way j. T moves and drops his body and glove after checking if the runner is breaking has to give the pitcher a poor target and be distracting for them.?? Doesn’t help the positioning of his glove for pulling a pitch every now and theneither.

          Brown struggled a little in his new gig, perhaps a tired arm. But it seems that with pitching 1 of 3 or 4 “top prospects” come to fruition. So he may have been the one that would or one of the 2 or 3 that wlll not.

          I am not high on Marsh for reasons already mentioned, and especially his k rate, though improved after coming to Philly, but I wasn’t high on Vierling either till I saw his burst speed rank and avg exit velocity rank.

          I could see a platoon in cf till one solidifies or another option
          But I wonder if they will favor marsh because of what he cost them?

          This year, microwave baseball worked oyput (barely) Robertson was a help in getting them to and through the postseason. Other years they (different gms ) tried the Same moves without them getting into postseason.

      1. Hinkie will like this signing. He was in on this guy when he pitched for SD. He probably has a good point – this guy used to be a starter, not all that long ago. Can you say depth ? He comes with the Marsh haircut – maybe SD and former Phil Luis Garcia can offer a plan ?

        1. Has a career that alternates good season then a bad season. This season he is due for a bad one, just saying…..

          1. It’s a curious signing because he’s coming off 0.3 WAR which is not great for a reliever. His SO rate exploded though so maybe the Phillies think that he’ll get better in 2023 (and 2024).

  68. 18 mil per year? Geez, seems like a lot when compared to Wheeler’s deal. I haven’t adjusted my top level salary rates yet. I hope they can extend Nola as well. What is his yearly AAV, 28? 32? 35?

    1. Aaron Nola is coming off 6 WAR and 4th in Cy Young voting. With the crazy money flying around this season (i.e. deGrom getting $185M), you figure that Nola should be able to get 5 years, $150M (or 6 years, $180M) easy next season. With Nola being 1 year away from FA, he doesn’t have to take any team friendly deal. Best case, Phillies extend him for 5 years, $140M. But if Nola wants to test FA, I think the Phillies will lose him. But Andrew Painter should soften the blow.

      1. I haven’t had a chance to look at the numbers with the recent signings, but it is obviously getting up there. I wonder how long they are willing to stay above the threshold, with it escalating.

        1. After the recent signings, the Phillies are projected to be past the first threshold but before the second one for luxury tax purposes. Since this will be for 2 consecutive years, the tax rate will be 30%.

          Note that the big money Phillies FAs next season are Hoskins and Nola. So letting Hoskins walk will save about $11-$13M, which won’t be enough to cover Nola’s impending contract if the Phillies want to stay away from the second luxury tax tier.

          1. Nola is making $16m on the last year of his deal and Hoskins is projected to make $13m in final year of arbitration.

            Extending Nola for something like $27M AAV would be $2 million less than they are paying in 2022 and would still put Nola somewhere around the top-10 in AAV for pitchers.

            1. Giving long term deals to pitchers are totally different than giving it to position players. The Phillies shouldn’t add extra years to Nola’s extension to reduce his AAV.

              If the Phillies are serious about not going past the 2nd luxury tax tier, signing Nola is doable but leaves pretty much no wiggle room. In 2024, Ranger will be getting more expensive, Bohm will be entering arbitration, Alvarado is a FA. It’ll add up.

      2. I haven’t had a chance to look at the numbers with the recent signings, but it is obviously getting up there. I wonder how long they are willing to stay above the threshold, with it escalating.

        At that point, you might need to trade castellanos to fit him in.

  69. Saw an interesting point today, Phillies are paying less next year for Turner and Stott than they paid for their starting MIF combo of Didi and Segura last year. Massive massive upgrade.

  70. Taillon also went for 4/$68M so that seems to be the going price right now. Taillon vs Walker? They seem similar in ability and in projectability to me. Age is about the same too.

  71. I’m ok with the Taijuan Walker signing. I like the movement on his breaking pitches, and especially his “splitter”. I hope the Phillies have him use that offering a lot going forward. It will be interesting to measure Walker vs Zach Eflin @ 3/40M and Jameson Taillon @ 4/68M.
    As RU predicted, I really like the Matt Straham signing. I’ve been a fan since he was starting in KC. As a matter of fact, I believe he can still start (at least be a swing man). He still throws 4 pitches, and is just as tough on RHHs as he is LHHs. I’d like to see Dombrowski take a flier on Alex Reyes on some kind of multi year (team or even player option) deal. Not sure he’ll be ready to start 2023, but there would be a ton of upside in that kind of signing.

      1. I think the Phillies are done the heavy lifting, Hinkie…unless they’re approaching Nola about an extension. And that would take them even higher above the tax threshold. Was hoping Dave had a trade in the works, because, well – he’s Dave Dombrowski.

  72. Pitching market, both SPs and RPs, is off the charts. If Painter and company emerge as advertised, we shouldn’t have to worry as much over the next few years. I don’t expect Wheeler’s production to be more than it is now, so when his contract is up after ’24, I think at his age at that price that DD let’s him walk. Nola? Have no idea how open he is to an extension. How much has he enjoyed his time here? And with this market, he may command at least 6/$180M if Rodon gets anything close to that.

    1. mark…..they may be able to bring Wheeler back on a shorter 3 year contract when he is at his age35 season in ’25.

      1. Win a championship and maybe he’ll go 2 years and then year-to-year until he retires. Players absolutely ADORE winning. And if you can win with a group of guys you genuinely like (which seems to be the case for most, if not all, of the team), they’re typically willing to make pretty big concessions to get it done.

    2. If he liked Philadelphia enough to give them that sweet discount when we were bad, I can only imagine he’s willing to consider an extension now that he has a clear path to becoming an all-time Phillies great.

      I’m not saying we’ll get him at a discount again, to be clear. Just that I imagine he’s perfectly willing to forego free agency if he’s offered a reasonable contract.

      1. What do you think a reasonable contract would be? He’s been money for the Phillies. If Wheeler stays healthy, hitting FA again at around age 35, I think he can get 3 years, $90M easy. With pitching costs going crazy, it wouldn’t surprise me if he got 3 years, $115M.

  73. Turner + Walker + Strahm equals am added 2023 AAV of $53M.
    Still may have wiggle room if they plan on staying under the next level of the threshold or they may decide to just blow right past it…ala Steve Cohen.

      1. Another reliever at the trade deadline…..you can virtually count that injuries for pitchers occur almost every year.

    1. With Eflin, Gibson, Herrera, Segura, Didi, Familia, Knebel & Nelson coming of the books we are looking good in the budget from last year.

  74. Keeping my fingers crossed that Ben Cherington of the Pirates takes Dylan Crews of LSU at numero uno next draft….do not want to se him in a Nats uniform for the next decade. Pirates like the college guys with their short minor league stay.

  75. I think there is another BP arm coming. Love Turner, thrilled we got him. I like both Walker and Straham. I did have Taillon and Rogers and Chafin rated higher. I don’t like questioning DD but for the same years and $, am I wrong to like Taillon more? The #s on Rogers and Chafin are not in so cannot compare. I like both Pitchers, just asking your opinions.

    1. Maybe Taillon didn’t want to come here or his agent was playing games and DD wanted to lock someone up. Or DD just liked him better. He has earned my trust (so far).

      1. Perhaps you can rule out the agent waffling….both are rep by Excel.
        And from what I have heard and read in the past, are very reputable in their dealings and represent quite a few players..

        1. I think that DD felt the experience Walker has had in the NL East, and taking him away from the Mets, heck, it worked with Wheeler, were the difference. He has certainly earned my trust. I want to see what Rogers and Chafin get. I still think another BP arm is coming. We are clearly better with Walker than we were with Gibson, Eflin and Thor. Appreciate all of their contributions to last season, but Walker is a #3, whether he slots ahead of or behind Ranger.

          1. Yes…agree.
            Walker is a 3 it would appear.
            I will be interested in seeing Thor’s velo readings this season…..I am guessing they will rise….like Rodon’s did after a few years post TJ.

            1. Walker may be a 3 but, if our other pitchers are healthy, he will pitch as our 4, which is great. In terms of pure performance, there is little to separate Walker from Eflin, but I think the Phillies were just (and rightly) concerned about Zach’s knees and never knowing when he would be out for extended periods of time.

              And for what it’s worth, I think this is the year that Suarez takes another step forward. He pitched as a 1 (yes, a 1!!!) in 2021 and pitched as a 3 last year, but he was definitely better than a 3 in the playoffs. I don’t know if he’s going to pitch like an ace again (odds are against it), but he could definitely pitch like a 2.

  76. mark, DD said that he wasn’t looking for a traditional Closer, as they like to have multiple options. Now, I don’t know if that is the right way to go, but I do think he was being honest. So, I am not expecting one.

    1. matt13 – I think another reliever is coming – 8th inning set up man, that’s what DD wanted. That could be Strahm or not. I love Chafin but I think he is going to be very expensive – 9 million per year ? Rogers will be expensive also because teams will think they can “fix” him. DD might actually wait to let the steam blow off and at the end — Robertson, among others, will be available on short term lower contracts. I wouldn’t mind seeing old Robertson back for that matter. Even Brewers’ Boxburger would be good.

  77. My buddy, the Blue Jays fan, lamented that if Judge got $360M, how could Vlad Jr get less than $300M? Unfortunately, that’s the state of baseball these days. Either you’re a big fish or a bottom feeder, there’s no middle ground. If the Yankees are trotting out $225M+ payrolls, what’s the difference if the Blue Jays (or even the Rays or Orioles) have a $150M or $175M payroll? There’s no difference, the Yankees are going to sign the best players. In that respect, I get why the Rays are not spending. But if MLB wants baseball to be about parity and not about who has the deepest pockets (the MLBPA is also letting this happen), then they need to think about having a floor on team salaries and give more onerous tax repercussions. But since the Phillies are one of the big fish, status quo is good for us. Not so much for Blue Jays fans, Pirates fans, Marlins fans…

  78. Another question, there are reports of what the Padres offered Turner and Judge. Do you think this is because Agents don’t like Preller? I haven’t seen any reports of what the Mets offered DeGrom or the Dodgers or Astros offered Verlander. Or, even what the Giants offered Judge. I wouldn’t think it’s leaked by SD because it doesn’t make them look great.

    1. Preller has had some issues in the past in the integrity dept when it comes to trades with other GMs…one that come to mind was the Red Sox/Padre trade of pitchers about 5/6 years ago…medical data was not fully released on one of the arms. Then there was an issue on international dealings I believe when he was asst to Jon Daniels in Texas
      Not sure how agents are with him.

      1. Hah, Padres are like the gorgeous blonde at the dance who has serious body odor when you get her on the floor. Plus the 13% crazy California state tax doesn’t help either.

      2. Preller strikes me as a scumbag for many reasons. I hope Manny opts out after this year. He would have 5/$150 remaining and can easily beat that.

        Damn the Torpedos

        Not much more needs to be done here. DD can slow play the market now if he wants to add another RP or two. He may even have the means to trade for it.

        The only pitching worry at this point is that getting to the WS puts a heavy work load on those arms but I’m sure they have a plan for that in ST.

  79. RU, very good point about DD waiting or the smoke to clear a bit. There will be some good BP arms available once the big $ slows down. BoSox get Jansen, 2 years and $32M, and Mets get Quintana for 2 years and $26M. Leaving $ out of the equation, we are better with Walker than the Mets are with Quintana, although I would have liked Quintana if we couldn’t get Walker or Taillon.

  80. Big strikes early by DD, we ain’t playin!

    Re: Walker, I know they all count but looking at his game log last season, pretty consistent / not too many stinkers. If you want to play that game, take away his worst (1 IP, 8 ER vs ATL) outing and he pitched to a 3.05 ERA the rest of year.

    Strahm helps replace come of the long hair we lost with Thor and is another LH piece for Topper.

    I kinda wanted Quintana for back end, who just joined Mets, but can’t get em all.

    Def don’t miss the days of VV/NP right now though — pretty exciting stuff, will be refreshing MLBTR (and this site, of course) 20x/day all winter … If our scouting dept can keep finding the arms, this could be fun for a while.

      1. Hoping they can re-sign Thor on a one year deal and see him compete for the 5th starter spot. Another year removed from TJ could be a positive.

      2. DD has been pretty clear that they are keeping the 5th spot in the rotation open for one or more of the young guys. I will be shocked if he acquires another FA starter.

  81. Now it’s being reported that the Padres offered Judge $400 million for 10 years. What exactly is the Padres’ strategy in not keeping this confidential? “Hey everyone, top free agents don’t want to come here, even if we offer to pay them more!”

    Wonder if there is something with the team chemistry — Machado? Tatis? Soto? — that free agents are trying to steer clear of.

  82. Are we potentially one of the strongest defensive teams up the middle? Weird to say that after all the defensive woes but I’d have to think JTR/Turner/Stott/Marsh rank up there in at least the top 7-8. JTR is a gold glover, Marsh was in the running in CF and Turner is a better than average SS and Stott at 2nd has to be the same, better than average. With that said, we may have the worst corner D in the league Hoskins/Bohm/Schwarber/Castellanos. Such polar opposites.

    1. That is a strong defense up the middle. Marsh the jury is out on him. In playoffs he had a few bad reads and routes and because it was in those games it made him look like a liability. However in the playoffs Castellanos looked like an all American Platinum Glove player

  83. I’m beginning to smell a 6-man rotation.
    Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Walker, Falter, and Painter perhaps deeper into May if not opening day. But we still have to score runs and catch the ball. But the innings watch on a few arms may keep them fresh into Sept and Oct.

    1. This doesn’t make sense. Pitchers are starting to get into the routine of throwing every 5 days so they are usually on pitch counts once the season starts. If they are on pitch counts, then relievers tend to be used more often in the beginning. There’s a 13 pitcher cap which means 8 relievers. It’s hard enough getting 8 relievers to finish off 5 starting pitchers. 7 relievers to finish off 6 starting pitchers? That’s madness.

      The Phillies WILL have an innings count on Andrew Painter. That is no doubt. As much as we want to see Painter in the rotation, with the signing of Walker, there’s no rush now. Falter will get the last rotation spot unless he implodes in ST. The Phillies will send Painter to AA or AAA and they will take it easy with him. 4 innings to start. If Falter implodes, then Painter can come up in May/June and finish out the season with the team.

      1. Plassmeyer could also be in the mix for that 5th spot.
        They will not rush Painter…..he is big and strong and last years was his top innings pitched at 104.
        Maybe 120/125 innings this season could be the max goal for him.

        1. I think the limit will be closer to 150 innings. Spencer Strider got 131 innings and he missed starts late in the year because he got hurt. Now whether or not he got hurt due to his usage is up for debate, but the Braves were willing to let him go beyond 131 innings. Strider pitched 94 innings in 2021 and he’s not the biggest guy.

          1. Fair point…Strider also is a few years older and was a college pitcher @ Clemson…though threw few innings over his time there because of the TJ surgery in 2019.

    2. I definitely think you are looking at a 6 man rotation – if not from opening day it will be implemented during the year in order to allow pitchers to not exceed 140- 150 innings. Our big pitchers were worn out at the playoffs – and their success was them just gutting through the end. Besides I can’t imagine they would want Painter to pitch more than 120 innings.

      1. Maybe in September when another pitcher could be added to the roster.

        Were the Phillies pitchers really worn out from usage?

        Nola 205 innings
        Suarez 155
        Wheeler 153

        Compare that to the Astros

        Valdez 201
        Verlander 175
        Urquidy 164
        Javier 148

        I don’t see too much of a difference. The Astros had 22 starts made by somebody other than their top 5. The Phillies had 31. Now obviously Eflin and Wheeler got hurt, but the Astros had McCullers Jr who only made 8 starts due to injuries.

      2. No way they use a 6 man rotation. They’ll be a 5 man rotation and they’ll use the days off to get guys an extra day off. Painter will not be allowed to go deep in games in the minors, saving innings for later on. Falter will start in the 5 spot and he’ll stay there for awhile unless he really implodes in 3 starts in a row.
        Marsh is a very good OF who will only get better as he plays more CF for us. He had played mostly LF since coming up for the Angels. He’ll work on it in spring training I’m sure. Rojas is several years away in my opinion.

  84. Don’t want to upset Rocco, Eric. I like Marsh, although he was a GG candidate in LF, I think he has the tools to be one here in CF. I like how he progressed at the bat after the trade. He has an off season, then a ST with Long. And given the time to learn our park and the NL parks, he will be really good. I believe that. In the meantime, we have Rojas working on his hitting down on the farm.

    1. Correct, he was in LF, I should have put OF instead of making it sound like he was up among other CFers in the GG voting. I think Marsh will be a better hitter than he was with LAA however still believe he’ll be a light hitting defensive CF (.250/.320/.400 ish) would love to see him tap into his speed a bit more when on base, new rules should help him.

      1. Eric….Angels apparently drafted Marsh in ’16 as a CFer….even with Trout already in center…and they put him out there in the minors…148 games as a CFer vs 29 in LF….assuming I have to think when the day came, Trout would move to a corner as he aged.

        1. Romus i wonder if its true, Trouts wife wanted to live California, when he was a FA, Just like now Turner wife wanted east coast, Women cost you a lot of money sometimes, but if you don’t make them happy, forget about it,

            1. Hinkie i know your sources are better than my, sources, I call Romus for rumor verification.

            2. Mike Trout felt a great of allegiance to Arte Moreno. He also thought it would be far less distracting playing in LA than Philly.

  85. Again a team offered more and the player went in another direction.
    Judge turned down a little more money from Giants and Padres to return to the Yankees.

    1. Judge has the chance to play his entire career in NY and become that next franchise icon following Jeter.

      At some point, that becomes a factor I have to believe.

      1. Yes that probably was a big factor.
        Shame he will never win a World Series there while the Phillies are winning a few over the coming years…c’est la vie. 🙂

  86. Thoughts on Luxury tax:
    1st yr – 20%
    2nd yr – 30%
    3rd yr + – 50%
    Only on the overage
    Plus various draft penalties

    Yeah… I don’t think Middleton should care. I hope he doesn’t . Right now the threshold is 233million. If the Phillies go up to 250 million …. Is it really that much if a deterrent? It’s 8million as a penalty. How Much do the Phillies “bank” on each postseason game at Citizen’s Bank? The tickets are jacked up too. So it’s above regular season. If my memory serves me, we estimated about 15 million a game in ticket/parking etc. 8 million is the cost of doing business…

  87. Romus and Hinkie. I just saw a headline on an article that was predicting the top 10 picks in the 23 draft. I have not looked at it yet. Think it was a Fan Side article.
    Romus, I saw the Franklin kid Clark listed last night as one of the potential top picks.
    I am interested to see if he is in top 10 on this list.
    Seems like Phillies are doing well so far. I still think a BP arm or two can be beneficial.

  88. So… if the Phillies were to sign Yoshida, would the posting fee be part of their salary cap dollars? Or just the money paid to the player? He might be a nice fit in RF until Bryce can play defense…which might not be until August. Also, he and Turner would be very nice at the top of the order setting the table for the boppers!

    1. If I’m not mistaken, the posting fee goes to the Japanese team losing the player. Whatever the acquiring team negotiates with the player is entirely separate. THAT figure is part of the team’s luxury tax total.

      I’d be curious to see if Dombrowski even considered Yoshida, let alone explored the possibility of signing him.

  89. Speaking of the luxury tax, here is an article on how screwed the Mets are currently:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/mets-rumors-brandon-nimmo-pessimism-kodai-senga-luxury-tax.html

    If they want to continue to fill holes, they are going to pay a massive tax bill. From the article:

    “[Existing moves this offseason] however, have left the Mets with a projected $306MM in terms of luxury-tax obligations. As a second-time offender, they’ll pay a 90% tax on on any expenditures north of $293MM. In other words, one or both of Nimmo and Senga would cost the Mets nearly double whatever annual salary is applied to their contracts — at least this season….Speculatively speaking, it’s not all that difficult to imagine the pair combining for something in the $40MM range, AAV-wise, which would mean at least an additional $36MM in taxes on top of their actual contracts.”

  90. Hinkie and Romus.
    I got the list. Let’s see your list, Hinkie.
    Romus, Clark in top 10 but not top 5 on this list.
    After Hinkie posts his I will list this one.

  91. So the Phillies selected RHP Noah Song from the RedSox, and lost nobody in the rule 5…whatcha got on Song, Hinkie?

  92. Phillies select Noah Song in the Rule 5 draft. Big arm. Should get out of the service by 2024 at the latest.

      1. To get an arm like that for free is unbelievable. what a smart, smart move.

        if nothing else, throw him in the pen for a year as our long guy.

  93. Normally an academy grad has to serve five years active duty. Song has previously petitioned to be let out early. I wonder what happens under the Rule 5 rules if, for example, he is let out in August — do the Phillies only need to roster him for the remainder of the year? Or would it have to be a full calendar year? My bet is the former, in which case this could turn out to be a shrewd move by the Phils.

    No reason not to take a gamble like this.

    1. They have to roster him for an entire year. I remember that when the Phils took Tyler Goodell a few years ago in the Rule 5, he got hurt and missed a good amount of the season. Rule 5 requirements carried over into the next year.

    2. My bet is the opposite.
      “To prevent the abuse of the Rule 5 draft, the rule also states that the draftee must actually be active for at least 90 days. This keeps teams from drafting players, then placing them on the injured list for the majority of the season. For example, if a Rule 5 draftee was only active for 67 days in his first season with his new club, he must be active for an additional 23 days in his second season to satisfy the Rule 5 requirements”

      …if he comes out in August 2023 it appears the restriction will carry over until 2024.

      1. Ahh, OK, but 90 days is not bad. They might be able to swing that. 99 mph arms are worth a shot.

        My understanding is that he must be on the 40 now — which means the Phils of course needed a slot available — but can be moved to the Restricted List once the season starts.

        1. Yeah….assume it is somewhat similar to the 60 day IL rules… ..once the season starts players can be placed on it.

  94. Spotrac………..@spotrac
    Current Projected Opening Day #MLB Tax Payrolls

    1. #Mets, $300M
    2. #Yankees, $261M
    3. #Phillies, $241M
    4. #Braves, $225M
    5. #Angels, $212M
    6. #Padres, $205M
    7. #BlueJays, $200M
    8. #Rangers, $199M
    9. #Astros, $197M
    10. #Dodgers, $189M
    11:08 AM · Dec 7, 2022

    1. Yeah, the rule 5 much adieu about nothing. We lost nothing because we had no one major league viable on the list.

  95. We keep Erik Miller, who I like. Hope he comes to ST healthy. He could help us during the season. Love the move for Noah Song! Well worth a shot

    1. This org just keeps making great decisions.

      Doesn’t protect Miller and everyone panics. But they were right.

      Love the Song pick. All upside. Love it.

      1. After all the years of RAJ and MacPhail and Klentak, it’s so refreshing to have competent leadership.

      2. Yeah. I remember Song pitching for Navy. He developed mucho velo during his time at Annapolis. Was still tall and thin, so there was still even more projection to him. He was a day two pick as a senior. May have gone top 2 rounds if not for his military commitment. I think (not certain) Dombrowski was still in Boston when the Red Sox picked him.
        Not sure if he is finished his Naval commitment. If not, I’d be interested to know how it applies to the Phillies keeping him on their 26 man roster.
        All in all, I think this is a helluva rule 5 pick. As v1 mentioned, this club just makes smart moves.

    1. V1 … a lot of times you can catch either a falling prep arm or a college pitcher recovering from TJ at the end of the first round. The Dodgers drafted Walker Buehler there years ago. Buehler hadn’t had surgery yet, but it was a foregone conclusion he was going to need TJ after the draft. Last year, Reggie Crawford, Connor Prielipp, Hunter Barco, Peyton Pallette all went after pick 1-28. They were all top 20 picks before getting injured. I hate to wish an arm injury on any amateur pitcher … but …. I wouldn’t be too broken up if guy like Hurston Waldrep (who i love) went down to TJ this spring.

      1. To all the prospects dads and dads with kids playing high school or college sports and to Mr Waldron if he’s following, hinkie didn’t really mean that, he was just joking…

        1. 😃 Kind of. But this kid is my favorite for next summer’s draft, and the only way he makes it to 1-28 is if he sees a TJ.

  96. Phillies lost Kyle Glogoski in the minor league portion. He was the third player selected. He missed a lot of 2021 but was pretty decent last year. I like his arm and believe he will pitch in the majors some day. Just based on watching some of his minor league tape.

    Phillies drafted a lot of guys presumably to help restock the system.

  97. Hinkie here is the Fansided Mock of top 10.
    1. Dylan Crews
    2. Chase Dollander
    3. Jacob Gonzalez
    4. Jacob Wilson
    5. Walker Jenkins
    6. Max Clark
    7. Wyatt Langford
    8. Rhett Lowder
    9. Enrique Bradford
    10. Braden Taylor

    Is Clark the only high school player of this list. I did not look at all the specifics for each. 5 OF, 2 P, 3 IF.

      1. Hinkie,
        If the Pirates, select Max Clark at 1-1 he will be the 2nd Indiana kid.
        Back in the day they took Bryan Bullington with the first pick.
        I am guessing that was the late 80s to early 90s.
        I played baseball and basketball against his dad, Larry in the late 60s and early 70s. I think Bryan made it to AAA. But I do not think he made it to the big leagues. But I could be wrong on that. He might have got a brief taste.

        Clark is about an hour from me and plays on the Bulls, but I do not think I have ever seen him play. He is two years older than my grandson, and these kids are always in different areas of Grand Park in tournaments. One of my grandson’s high school teammates is on the 2nd Bulls team so I am not sure if he has ever been on the same team coming up as Clark or not. But I have heard he is really good. My buddy’s nephew Keaton Mahan is really good, and he ended up at OSU.

  98. Padres Off-season Theme: “ I’m right over here, why can’t you see me? Oh, oh-oh, And I’m giving it my all, but I’m not the guy you’re taking home”

    That’s what’s in…

    1. …and in the end they desperately got their man….sort of. Bogaerts to San Diego at 11/$280M sounds like, “well, the Phillies did it, why can’t we give an 11 year deal…to a SS we REALLY don’t need on a roster flush with them, playing next to our star 3b who’ll probably opt out after next season”…oh, now it makes sense. Kind of an awkward way to build a roster. Sounds more like NYM west…

    2. Well, they went home with Bogaerts and that’s not chopped liver! It was surprising move to me and I find the chemistry of that group most interesting and maybe volatile. I would venture, that perhaps they would like to move Tatis in the worst way.

  99. In ESPN news there is a recap of rule 5 draft. It is titled, “Phillies make surprise smart pick” in draft with Noah Song. Then an explanation that DD drafted him 4th round due to his military commitment. Much work needs to be done on how he fits into the rules of the draft but article lauds his arm. Very smart pick and he goes on the military duty list which is not a 40 man roster hit.

  100. A good writeup on rule 5 losses and additions.

    They picked up a catcher in mid 20’s as a good organizational Phil in.

  101. I’m shocked to read the Red Sox signed Kenley Jensen – that Atlanta didn’t secure him longer term than one year.

    1. Fourth year coming up for Chaim Bloom.
      They will need to stay in contention in the AL-East…whicj=h now see the Os making strides.
      Not sure how long John Henry will remain patient.
      They lost Bogaerts and Devers becomes a critical re-sign I would think.

  102. Well we didn’t lose anyone in the major league portion of the Rule 5. Every year our concerns are usually overblown.

    1. People are thinking we dodged a bullet (somewhat) with Miller, but I was never all that worried about losing him or the outcome if we did lose him. The guy I am especially glad we didn’t lose is De La Cruz (who a team like the Pirates or Royals or even the Marlins could have easily carried for a year) – there could a really good player lurking there, so I’m glad he has at least one more year to develop with the Phillies.

      1. This Noah Song selection was true genius. They could easily have just found themselves a solid reliever for essentially nothing and don’t have to put him on the roster yet. It’s the best of all worlds.

        1. Yes, Dombrowski is giving a tutorial on general managing. Very shrewd man. Gambles don’t always work out, but he who doesn’t try (MacPhail? Klentak?) and strictly paints by numbers won’t move the needle much.

  103. Not mentioned, but Judge staying in NY instead of improving an already strong SF team means one fewer strong competitors in the NL. That’s a win for the Phils.

    I also wonder if DD is done with the big moves or is working on a big trade? Will he just tinker on the edges? Or is he looking for other changes that could be big?

    1. Gotta think he’s adding another reliable (if not top) bullpen piece. Plus, in Harper’s absence, I really think he needs a stop gap glove, at least, to play RF. Castellanos in small doses is okay, but….

      1. Agree another bullpen piece will be added.

        I am not sure they will add an outfielder, but my guess is that there’s going to be a bit of rotation out there so that Castellanos can DH as much as possible – that said, I think it’s going to look a lot like what happened last year for the most part. I also think they may bring in a cheap DH bat to compete for playing time with guys like Hall. Frankly, in my view, this is Hall’s one great opportunity to shine. He will get DHs at bats and some 1B at bats in Harper’s absence and if he hits well enough, he may very well get an opportunity to win the 1B job in 2023.

  104. You know, even if this Rule 5 pick Song, got out of the Navy at year’s end, the Phillies could almost “hide” him as the 26th man. He probably couldn’t do any worse than Nelson or Norwood did.

    Song was a starter at Navy so he could pitch multiple mop up innings like Nelson did and come into non essential innings like the Phillies did with Norwood but hopefully not blow a seven run lead.

    1. It’s not as easy as it sounds. Even if you’re in a mop role, you’re still pitching against big leaguers and if you groove pitches (because you’re not ready for the bigs), you’ll still get crushed. How many times have we seen mop up guys for the Phillies get sent down because they get lit up? Answer: too often.

      Song has pitched 17 total innings in the minors. It could get ugly.

  105. Braves add a good BP arm, Jiminez. What would the return have been from us equating to what the Braves gave up? I don’t know either of the players.

    1. Matt … I don’t know much about the pitcher Atlanta gave up, but I’ve liked Justin Henry Malloy for a while. He’s a North Jersey kid who played college at Georgia Tech. He’s a really athletic 3Bman. And he’s hit pretty well as a MiLB player so far. He’s a second tier prospect with some ceiling IMO.

      1. The pitcher doesn’t look like much of a prospect. 26-year-old relief pitcher in AA last season with bad numbers.

        Jimenez had a good year last season but has also had a shaky career overall but he does strike out a lot of hitters. He will be a FA in 2024.

  106. Harper’s absence – assume he returns as a DH in mid-June – will miss 70 games.

    Comfortable that Vierling / Hall can post .250 / 10-12 HR / 30 RBIs over that 70 games?

    If not, any thoughts about signing Benintendi? Brantley? Cutch? Mancini? for a 1 year deal? Goal – professional AB’s, good clubhouse guy, primary DH.

    1. The issue here would be about cost and usage. Who would be willing to take a cheap 1 year deal, knowing that they’ll be riding the pine once Harper is back? Quick answer: not too many people. You roll with some combination of Hall/Maton/Sosa/Vierling and you see what happens.

      1. Agree…mix and and match as Dombrowski, or was it Thomson, said last week.
        Jake Cave was picked up for that intention and Thomson knows him from their Yankee system.

  107. Guru – I understand what you are writing but if the Phillies want to keep Song, he needs to be on the 26 ALL season. If they are wanting him and he is taking a spot on the roster, they are going to use him in some manner. As you say, he’s probably going to get lit up at times but that’s the price you pay with a Rule 5 player.

    1. I know that Song has to be on the roster all year. You’re saying that Song can’t be as bad as Nelson or Norwood. I’m saying that he can definitely be worse than that because of his lack of experience.

      1. Guru – you’re right. He could be way worse and, in fact, I EXPECT him to be way worse, at least to start the year. But with 13 pitchers on the roster, it’s not the end of the world and he will appear almost exclusively in blow outs. For a team with WS ring aspirations, he is going to have to show quite a bit of promise to remain on the roster all year – but it’s definitely possible.

        1. Even if he’s only in blow outs, Song could still get rocked. It’s up to the Phillies to decide whether or not it’s worth it to keep him on the roster for the entire year. I’m really not expecting much from him when he makes his debut, whenever that may be.

          1. Yes, exactly. The hope is that he at least has some offseason training and a spring training to ramp up at least to a certain degree. But maybe he can be our baseball Roger Staubach (Navy Heisman Winner and Vietnam Vet drafted by the Cowboys who won the ultimate draft day long game).

            1. It sounds like nobody knows. He apparently is trying to commute his Navy commitment to serve reserve duty but does not have the Navy approvals yet and it’s not clear whether those will be forthcoming. I see this sort of thing all the time with my son who is in the Army – you find out when you find out. If he is forced to serve his whole commitment, it sounded like he won’t be done until he’s 29 and then he’s just another guy out there with a hope and a dream.

            2. Last I heard a military academy grad must serve a minimum of eight years ….but with approval it can be combination of Active Duty and Reserve Component Service….he graduated in ’19 so active duty time of four years is completed or coming up in ’24…. maybe he can get a waiver for the remaining obligation thru Reserve status.

            3. Catch, not that I’m an expert,but i’d be shocked if they don’t let him out of his commitment. I’d say that to any fan, not just a Phillies biased audience. Again, I’m not an expert but … here is why:

              There is a precedent for this, at the Naval academy over the years. Also, Military is theoretically out of a direct war. Usually it’s hurry up and wait, combined with the needs of the military. The needs are different now, then they are in high war time. Also, Holding this kid back is not a good look for future athletes that are accepted into the school. It would steer some away in the future. It could go longer, but I think he’s out in a capacity that has him playing in 2024. That’s where my money would be.

              Awesome school btw

      2. The full season if he is available for the full season. But in any case, a minimum of 90 days. If he gets out of the Navy on, say, July 1, they would need to keep him for the rest of the season. I could see hiding him on the roster that way — 26th guy for July and August and then when rosters expand he would be the last guy on the expanded roster. He’d be getting back into baseball shape anyway. Then the next year he starts in the minors and you see what’s what.

  108. Jon Heyman
    @JonHeyman
    Cole Hamels, still only 38, would like to pitch in 2023, his longtime agent John Boggs said. Hasn’t pitched since 2020………..5:55 PM · Dec 7, 2022

    Wonder if this will cross Dave D.’s mind.
    John Middleton I am sure has it tucked away.

      1. I’d give him a minor league deal with a spring training invite to see if he has anything left. And if he doesn’t, no big loss and he can retire as a member of the Phils. After all he did for the Phils, he’s earned it.

        1. Yup, He could start #5 and give bailey some instructs. But with the walker signing, not much room.

          1. On second thought, it would have to be a AAA contract to step up only if he dominates, someone falters (like duarezor Falter)or in case of an injury.

            But if they can Resign Nola, then like realmuto blocked Ohoppe, Abel and Painter will be blocked and Good trade material in case of an injury. Cause that’s microwave baseball and how DD rseems to olls. Otherwise, Abel would be in the rotation rather than Walker, with Painter his backup.

            1. If the Phillies block Painter and Abel and trade them, they are stupid and get what they deserve. Young, dominant, cheap starting pitchers are what is going to give this team a long runway of excellence – you are talking about 7 years before those players hit free agency (I doubt either is with the team at the start of the season). My view is what is going to happen is this. The Phillies will keep and extend of one of Nola or Wheeler, and probably Nola because the way he pitches velocity isn’t as important – and he’s also a lot younger than Wheeler. They will also look to extend Ranger in the next few years. He is, by far, the most underrated player on this team and really important to their long term success.

              The current rotation is already set for at least one additional pitcher from the minors, probably Painter. They may have 6 starters for a while (someone always gets injured anyway), so they could also accommodate Abel, when he is ready.

              McGarry will find his way. I agree he will probably start out as a reliever while Cotham works with him to hone his control and they need another good young, cheap arm in the bullpen in any event. He could easily slip into the rotation over the next few years as Ranger did.

    1. I’d be interested in him on a non-guaranteed deal but I’d rather Painter get the reps. Hamels is better off going back to Texas, San Francisco, or the Angels.

      1. I think that is what he is shooting for….an invite with no contractual strings attached to show what he may have left in his arm come when spring training gets underway.
        No risk there.

  109. What do you think of Robertson or Hand coming back on a reasonable 1 year deal? Or do you think DD is aiming for an arm rated higher? I think there is at least 1 more FA coming, and with SerA, Alvarado, Brogdon, Bellatti, Strahm there is a need for at least 1, and maybe even 2 more.

    1. And I think they sent both Morales and Lehman out to the desert to get ready for a call up and their audition at some point in 2023.
      So there are two more ready to go soon.

      1. Romus, do you think we add another FA Reliever? I did forget about Coonrod. Maybe Nelson makes it out of ST, but there is still room for another BP arm. I think Sanchez is a SP at LHV, and we may have a few guys ready during the season, but we know that we always need about 20 Pitchers to get through a season.

    2. I gotta believe McGarry starts off his career as a reliever. Not totally ideal for him, but the team is NOT rebuilding (god that feels good to say), he’s young, I’m sure he is gung-ho, looking for an opportunity to make the majors. If he can control the ball better, I bet he’s up in the pen first. I can be wrong, but that’s my gut

    3. Would bring back Robertson if for anything, experience and mentoring. Hand is already replaced on roster, and there are other AA / AAA options.

  110. Jason Stark – Starkville podcast.

    “They have signed stars, game changing stars, and right now it looks like they are going to blow through that $253 million second luxury tax threshold. Just get the sense that ‘they don’t really care’ about the money.”

  111. See we picked up 2 AAA players and 3 AA players and 1 A+ and 1 A player in the rule 5 Minor League draft. Best bet is 21 year old Pedro Martinez.

  112. I mentioned a while back that I got the sense that Middleton was all in on getting the Phillies back to the WS and bringing the trophy back to Philly. If you are all in, you are all in. From a distance I see DD doing whatever he thinks will get the Phillies to the promised land and Middleton being in total agreement. I may be wrong, but I get the feeling that I am not. You play for today and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. I am not saying it is right but seems like the way sports are playing out today. It seems like the idea of team building for a long time has kind of come and gone.
    Take the college game now. You build your team for this year. Because of the portal and NIL, you have no idea what next year will bring.

  113. I respect Anthony Franco of MLBTR a lot. On his chat today he was asked about the amount of dollars FA starting pitchers were getting. He said, “Still not sure what it is the Phillies see in Taijuan Walker to go 72MM when Tyler Anderson gets 39MM and Martin Perez takes the qualifying offer.” Anderson is only a year older than Walker with a hundred less innings under his belt (898-802) and he’s LH.

    1. ciada…so it is basically….$18M AAV (Walker) vs $13M AAV (Anderson)…vs $20M AAV (Perez).
      The years/the length of the contract is probably the hang-up Franco has.

  114. They see a guy who can throw multiple pitches, who is a good #3/4 SP, as opposed to a #5, who they get to take away from the Mets, and they feel can help them win. Was he a better signing than Taillon? I don’t know. But, I read the same chat, ciada, and I don’t know what Martin Perez had to do with his opinion of Walker. Perez was not available to the Phils, and the question should be “why did he take that QO, when he could have done much better going into FA?” That has nothing to do with us signing Walker. DD saw a Pitcher he liked, and spent what it took to get him. Time will tell how good of a move it was.

  115. Matt – I think Franco was saying that it was an overpay for both dollars and years. Bleeding Phillies red just like you do, I hope it works out.

  116. I understand, ciada, I think there are legitimate analysts who think it was an overpay. I like to read the chats, also, and I just think they like him, wanted him, so paid the price. My first question was why him over Taillon, but I have my faith in DD, and definitely hope it works out.

    1. Perhaps they’re more confident that Walker stays healthier compared to Taillon based on history. Don’t think we’ll ever know for sure.

  117. I just read mu own comment, and did not mean to infer that Franco is not a legitimate analyst. He is, and his question is a legitimate one. I didn’t like the way I sounded. Sorry, ciada!

    1. I read Franco’s column too and my take – opinion only – was that the timing of Anderson’s signing (with a QO) by the Angels was very early and no one knew what would transpire in terms of mid range hurlers getting 11 – to 13 million per year. All of a sudden it seemed to move from 13 to 17 million plus – made possible by deGrom’s silly deal. Efflin got 40 million for 3 years from the cheapest team and has barely pitched so what does that say about a healthy pitcher ? Moreover, it seems that pitchers without a QO all of a sudden got alot more valuable – particularly when all the teams were throwing cash out of helicopter windows. I would submit – Taillon and Walker are essentially the same thing – with NO QO, – by definition that made them more valuable, strong multiple team interest, and in the context of the changed market – they were likely to get 72 – 68 million for 4 years , ie. the 17/18 per year. That is the new market. I would also submit both were the best available NO QO pitchers available at that point. So – my bottom line is Franco is off base and wrong. They got what the market called for and the Phillies needed a reliable 3/4 starter ; as did the Cubs who will use Taillon as their # 2 ? That’s the price today. To question those purchases is to deny the market had already moved – it had ! You either pay or don’t play.

      Lastly – we are beginning to see it in the relief market. Robertson for 10 million ? That’s also silly, but it is what it is. I thought Strahm was a little pricey @ 14million for 2 yr, maybe not anymore ? What are Chafin and some of the better relievers going to get ?? Looks like 10 million ++ ??

      1. Walker has actually been pretty consistently good since 2017, with the exception of 2021, when he was mediocre. He’s pitched like an okay 3 and a solid 4. Don’t we wish we had a solid 4 in last year’s playoffs? This year we should have him and one of the young guns in the 4 slot. He was over paid a little (spoiler alert – Dombrowski almost always overpays – it’s one of his flaws), but he can serve an important role on this team. He will also serve an important role when Wheeler or Nola, most likely Wheeler, moves on in a few years.

        Now the Phillies should be looking to extend Nola and I’m sure they are having discussions, but, Hinkie, let me be frank, with the current market, if Aaron Nola takes 5 years and $110m (as you suggested he might), he’s out of his mind. But 6 years for around $150-175m is definitely possible. They must be kicking themselves for not trying to reach terms earlier.

        1. Nola will give the Phillies a ‘home-town discount’ (AAV) as the saying goes, in exchange for contract longevity with an added year or two.
          Do not believe Paragon has the same philosophy as the Boras Co.

          1. By the way, 6 years between $150-175 IS with a home team discount. If the Phillies do better than that, good for them.

  118. Robertson to the Mets, 1 year $10M. Not exactly the # I would have offered. Also they brought back Nimmo 8/$162M

      1. The only clubhouse where some of the players can enjoy the “early bird” special with the manager and coaches.

  119. Good article in the MLB Trade Rumors column now- Mets $100 million above the $233 million first level cap. with intentions to sign even more players.

  120. The mets payroll is so insane that the phillies, who are over the luxury tax, could add Rondon, the top 2 relief pitchers left on the market and the best outfielder/1b left on the market to cover for loss of Harper and still not even approach the mets payroll

    1. Verlander and Scherzer contracts are killers….close to $90M AAV for the two together. Still have Cano ($24M) for another year and now Nimmo ($20M).

    2. The Nats ran into a similar snafu with their big, deferred contracts, and they had their run to glory which faded faster than you can say Harper-Schwarber-Turner. The Mets are in a highly competitive division while the Nats caught the NL east at a downturn. NYM won’t be so fortunate, no matter how far over they go past the luxury tax.

    3. But San Diego would offer all of them $800 million to beat out the Phillies. And all but one would decline. You can’t make this up….

  121. Be very happy that we’re not looking for a CF right now. Nimmo got crazy money for his skills due to the shortage. The pirates should be able to trade Reynolds for at least two top prospects and maybe three. I know we didn’t like trading away a great prospect for Marsh but thank goodness we did when we did.

    1. It’s a fair point Murray. I still believe they overpaid for him, but they solved a problem a contending team cannot have (no real centerfielder) and obtained cost certainty as well for many years. While I don’t always agree with him, DD knows what he is doing and we are lucky to have him.

  122. On Marsh, and I know giving up O’Hoppe was a high price to pay. No argument from me. But, what I took away from the Trea Turner press conference is the degree of influence and faith in Kevin Long that the team has. He was very much a part of the decision to trade for Marsh, and studied him and felt he could help him. The small sample after the trade seems to confirm that Long knew what he was talking about. I think there is a good chance his #s are much closer to his #s here vs what he did before the trade in Anaheim. I also believe that giving him good Coaching, and I am very serious about bringing Garry Maddox to ST, and time to learn CBP and the other NL parks, that we have a really good CF under team control for a while.

  123. Matt, I saw O’Hoppe penciled is a projected starter in 23 for the Angels the other night on MLB. I agree on Kevin Long. He seems to have good success with most of the guys. I like the Maddox idea. There were none better. One of the things I noticed with Marsh last season was when he struggled it seemed more often than not it was on fairly routine plays. That to me seems more like a concentration issue as opposed to talent issue. I do agree that as he becomes more familiar with the parks in the NL this should all help him become more consistent. Marsh is going to have to improve on the FB. He was pretty much overmatched most of the time late in the playoffs. Stott was as well so let’s hope both can get to the pitch a little quicker.

    1. Marsh struggled on the balls hit right at him. Trust me, they are definitely the hardest. He was actually excellent on balls in the alley. He gets get jumps on those balls and I’m confident he’ll improve with practice on the balls at him. The corners are very different because balls hook and slice and are easier to read. In CF you get balls at you. I’ve actually been appealing for a few years to get Victorino into camp to help the OFs and the base runners. He would be great at it and was a tremendous OF also.

      1. I played CF through high school, as well as the corner OFs. If you have the speed to cover the ground, which I did, CF is the easiest of the 3. The entire field is in front of you and you can better track each pitch from the pitcher’s release to bat contact. In RF, I always felt like I was looking at the diamond with my head tilted to the left, especially with all the righty bats. Judging balls right at you in CF is difficult in terms of carry, but you aren’t battling against slices and pulls as much as the corners.

        1. I’m 43 and still play on an over 40 league, I played mainly CF or LF with some 3b mixed in. CF is by far the easiest and funnest position to play, love that you can get a great jump on balls because you can see the ball move and react to the hitter easier. Plus the ball doesn’t tail as much as left or right. Especially if hitters go OPPO.

  124. Rodon reportedly looking for a 7 year deal. Yankees are interested but in a shorter term. Perhaps the current trend of longer term and lower AAV may appeal to certain clubs. I think he’ll get 7/$182M at $26M AAV…but from which team? …and with the QO penalty?

  125. i too played CF quite a bit as a youngster and yes a ball hit right at you is the most difficult to judge. Especially if the hitter takes a big swing and hits the ball maybe on the end of the bat. Hard to judge at first.
    Just looked at Fanside. They say Phillies still have 3 areas of concern for 23.
    1. Say need another SP.
    2. BP additions still warranted.
    3. Addressing Bryce Harper absence. Mentioned one of Hinkie’s guys Kevin Kiemaier as a possiblity. Romus… did you know he is a Hoosier as well. LOL.
    Any thoughts on those concerns. BTW they liked Rodon as best option.

    1. Don…..yes there are concerns if Kevin Kiermaier is a Hoosier….though not a Bloomington IN Hoosier….however, I can live with Schwarber. 🙂

      1. Rutgers pounded the Hoosiers.
        Kiermaier is from Nothern Indiana. I forget exactly.
        You are too funny.

  126. Don, I don’t think we are in on Rodon, at all. Maybe they bring Thor back, if he is still out there next month? DD was clear that a young SP will fill #5. Unless they are planning on a 6 Man rotation. BP help, yes, I think they add at least 1 more, for sure. And, the DH spot will rotate among Hoskins, Bohm, Castellanos, and Hall. Sosa can give Bohm a break and play 3B. Vierling in RF for Castellanos, Hall at 1B for Hoskins. Stubbs for JTR. So, if we assume 13 Pitchers, 13 Hitters, there is either a spot for Maton or Jake Cave or someone to be a backup. So, my Bench is Hall, Sosa, Stubbs, Vierling, Maton. I have Nelson and Coonrod, who Romus reminded me I forgot about, and 1 spot for another FA BP arm. I don’t expect a trade involving any of the regular players.

    1. I like Maton, but think Gunthrie might have more versatility and much more sb potential. Both are just learning to play OF. If I were Gunthrie, I would really focus on conditioning and strength this winter to add even a little more pop to spring training. He had 10 hr in 2/3 of a season at AAA while Maton had 1 at AAA in 100? AB and 5 more in the bigs in I think less than 100. Not sure of his minor league AB.

      1. And yeah, Hall is a keeper at least till Harper gets back. 9 hr in 134 AB is about 1 in 15 AB. I see him getting most of the AB against right-handers either as dh or moving into 1b if he shows better defense. But I have to pipe in that Hoskins had greatly improved his defense from the beginning. Though he led in errors, I think he also led in assists?

        Maton is a lh bat that could sub for casty against a right-hander if casty is in a funk, but Gunthrie could do the same for schwarber or marsh. I think they could be wise to develop one of the bench players (Sosa, Gunthrie or Maton, so Stubb’s could pinch hit or dh now and then. The AAA/AA catcher they got in rule 5’isvtoutedvto be defensive assat and carries a career . 257 avg. He might step ahead of sands on depth chart.

        Sosa could likely start on some teams. They have a nice bench.

        I look for Vierling to take a step forward even challenging marsh if hi struggles with strikeouts. When contending for a title, even #9 isn’t the place to learn to hit in the bigs.

        1. You are correct, TonyG, I had forgotten Guthrie as a bench candidate. My bad! I think the OF fill in will come internally.

  127. Matt, all good points. Seems Yankees get most noise on Rodon. Article did state Phillies have lots of DH guys. I think my biggest concern is still the BP. It is nice to have a guy like Diaz that when you get to the 9th with a lead you can put the game in the W column. I do not have that faith in any of the present Phillies guys.

    1. Edwin Diaz has had only 2 elite years (2+ WAR) in his 7 year career. That’s not to say that he’s not a good closer, but even closers can have down years.

      Craig Kimbrel has been one of the best closers in the last 20 years, but he’s been elite at 7/13 years.

      1. Good points Guru. Diaz was bad his first year in NY. They are up and down but I kind of like having a guy back there who I know has those upside genes in him. Johs Hader is one of my favorites. But Phillies kept Pads from having a chance to use him.

  128. I just looked at a piece by Zolecki.
    One of areas was piece on Song.
    He had impressive career at Navy.
    32-13
    428 Ks in 334 IP
    Sr. 11-1 and 161Ks in 94IP
    15.4 Per 9
    Sounds like he is worth a gamble
    DD said they really liked him when they drafted him.

  129. See roster has 40 players not including Walker, so when they add him they will need to remove 1 player.

  130. DD is on record saying that he loves closers. He made a big prospect trade for Kimbrel while in Boston. We have good backend BP but imo if we got an elite closer our BP would be a weapon. So here is an idea…

    Griff McGarry + a prospect like Viars or Boyd for Devin Williams.

    1. v1, I like your elite thoughts. I mentioned it is nice to go to the 9th ahead and basically know the game is in the W column. I never have that feeling with the guys we have. I know elite guys still have off seasons, but you know they can be elite.

      1. How are we defining elite? Because Alvarado was third in all of MLB for FIP among relievers last year. Only Diaz and Erik Swanson were ahead of him.

        And that’s even taking into account his 4.04 FIP when he got demoted. He had a 1.19 the rest of the way, which would have been just behind Diaz for second, with the next closest guy after him over .6 higher.

        That’s pretty elite.

  131. I look for one more bullpen addition via free agency by signing lefty Taylor Rogers, who’ll compliment the other lefties in Strahm, Alvarado and swing man Falter, then Coonrod, Bellatti, Brogdon and Seranthony as the righties. Looks like Nick Nelson would get the heave ho from the 40 man.

    Considering the front office’s aggressive posture right now, I anticipate Andrew Painter to break camp as the 5th starter on an innings limit, behind Wheeler, Nola, Suarez and Walker.

    Barring the unforeseen trade or free agent signing of a position player, it looks like Hoskins, Stott, Turner and Bohm around the horn, Schwarber, Marsh and Castellanos from left field to right, JTR behind the dish, Stubbs as his backup, Hall getting early season ABs as DH against RHPs, Vierling (in RF when Castellanos is DH), Sosa and Maton off the bench.

    Like it!

    1. If Painter breaks camp, the easy math is that Painter gets 30 starts, 5 innings per start = 150 innings which would be pushing his innings limit. The negative is that the relievers will have to get 4 innings every time he starts, and I question how effective he would be in the postseason. And that’s assuming that Painter is effective. Looking at the Phillies schedule, the Phillies have 3 off days until May 4th! So it’s not like the Phillies can skip over Painter’s start early on to conserve his innings.

      Leave Painter in the minors where they can really baby him to start: 1 start per week, 3-4 innings to begin with.

      Painter will get to the Phillies soon enough.

  132. Mark, that looks like a pretty formidable lineup. If Painter is going to have limits then maybe a swing type guy who can start or work out of BP might be an option. I know early on there are usually lots of off days but somewhere games add up. Also, they kind of tried last season to get extra days off for Nola and Wheeler to keep them fresh.
    I would not be against Syndergard if the price was reasonable.

    1. If multiple of the prospects look ready and/or we sign another SP (or if Strahm looks like he could contribute as a starter?), I’d be in favor of a 6 man rotation for this year. Our top three had heavy usage last year, and the young guys need to watch their innings. Two birds one stone.

      1. Personally, ilo of a 6-man rotation I lean more Cash’s way with an opener during specific times thru the season. I think he used it with Armstrong and Beeks on occasion last season.
        If you can get 2 solid first and second innings from the ‘opening’ pitcher vs the top of the opp order…the normal starter starts the third off with the bottom of the order and may only see the top of the order twice if he can go five innings.
        Then the set-up in the 8th and Clsr in the 9th step up.

  133. I wouldn’t bet against a possible Thor rerun if he falls through the cracks and they can sign him for 10 million. On the relievers, I could see going after Michael Fulmer who has a history with DD and would be very good as a late inning man despite his higher than normal walk rate in ’22. Also would look at Trevor May. Chafin, Rogers, Ottavino, will command Robertson (10 mill ) type numbers. I also think that Phils farmhand Baker may get a chance in ST.

    Under no circumstances would I trade Abel or McGarry.

    1. RU…agree on Trevor May or Adam Ottavino…they could be signed without breaking the bank.
      But think Francisco Morales will be ‘da BP man’ this season for the Phillies.
      He is ready to come on.
      And then there is also Andrew Baker, who may be ready to step up sometime mid-season. His hi-90s/triple digit readings is very attractive…get the control in order and he could be a key BP arm down the stretch. Hes should have a stop at Reading then unto LHV

  134. If Chafin or Rogers can be acquired for $10M, I am all in! Also like Ottavino and would not mind a return of Trevor May either. But, Rogers or Chafin top my Wish List.

  135. Clutch Points has article on trade destinations for Liam Hendricks.
    They list Phillies as number 1 possibility. Hendricks had 38 and 37 saves the last two years. Second was the Giants and third was the Blue Jays.
    What would it take to land Hendricks? He has been rumored with the Phillies in other articles.

    1. I would start with McGarry along with Rojas and possibly Miller. Hoskins is virtually a rental, or a deadline piece for any acquiring team not in playoff contention. Not sure what if any value he would hold for a wanna be contender.

      1. LOL – here we a go again. Unless he falls off the face of the earth plenty of teams would want a +130 OPS hitter at the deadline but he won’t be available for a trade by then. He will mostly likely move teams as a FA next winter. Absent a blockbuster trade this off-season get used to seeing Rhys around for another year.

        1. Why would any team not in contention want Hoskins at the trade deadline? that would be pointless.

          1. If the White Sox were out of contention at the deadline, they could trade him to a contender. As of now, they are at least vying for their division.

            1. Andrew Vaughn will most likely play 1B for Chisox – he is the heir apparent ( after Abreu) and is atrocious as an OF. He was drafted with 1B in mind. Alternatively, Eloy Jiminez is equally atrocious as an OF and there was some talk of him being the 1B and then Vaughn the DH – switching them back and forth. Either way they are both 24 and controllable. Hoskins has nowhere to play there ?

            2. That makes no sense. If the White Sox were out of contention, why would they want Rhys Hoskins, on the last year of his contract who would provide residual value? There would be no benefit going forward. They would want a prospect or two, not Rhys Hoskins.

            3. I meant to say NO residual value. If Rhys Hoskins is moved mid-year (which seems highly unlikely) he would be moved to a team in contention. Nobody in their right mind would want Rhys Hoskins on the last year of his deal if they are not in contention. That would be a waste of resources and money for the team that was out of contention. It makes no sense.

            4. I read your comment again – so, I think you’re saying the Phillies, White Sox and some other team or teams could be in a 3 or 4 way trade – yeah, I guess that’s always possible.

            5. Like I mentioned before…Farhan Zaidi and the Giants would have a need for Rhys….Belt split into free agency.
              And if they sign Correa, Rhys could hit behind him in their lineup.
              But what do the Giants have that the Phillies would need or want?
              Camilo Doval?….but it will take a lot more than just Rhys to get him

      2. Hendricks is a one ye rental too. Would need to agree to sign 2 yr extension plus to be worth of trading any prospects. IMO.

  136. Don, I wanted Hendriks when he was with Oakland, before the WSox got him. He is very good. I am not good at guessing what Chicago would take for him. I know some folks here would like to get him for a certain 1B we employ, and even if I wanted to trade him, I don’t think that would get him. It is hard to judge what the WSox think they need, although I would think they want Major League ready talent as they are looking to contend next season.

  137. I was wondering does anyone on here every . think that maybe Romus could be Elon Musk?? his comments are brilliant

    1. rocco……you are now ‘shadowed banned’ or ‘vis filtered’ or ‘de-amplified’ or whatever the heck it is called now.

  138. I remember during 2008 I said to my sons, Charlie Manuel drives me crazy, he manages every game like it is the 7th game of the World Series. He used his pitching staff in leveraged situations and did as many changes during a game in an urgent manner. But it worked.
    During the last half of the season, Rob Thomson also managed that way, so I think that is an equation for success.
    Might prove that an on-going plan is organic and must be “tweaked” as the game develops; can’t be totally data driven, must factor in the human into the equation.

  139. Denny, I agree with that method. It has always been my approach when I coached that they keep score for a reason. That is for a team to try to win. I am not an at all costs person, but I have always believed that if a game is there for the taking you try to find a way to win. The idea that there is another game tomorrow has never set well with me. You might not have a chance to win tomorrow. I mentioned last Spring that the games the Phillies kind of gave away count the same as the ones in September. If you win some of those maybe, you do not go into the last series of the season needing a win to qualify for the postseason.

  140. Let’s say it would be a race between Hamels and deGrom to see who comes out of spring training in one piece.

  141. Without Harper during the first half of the season the lineup could lack punch. Would Hall, Costy, and Marsh fill the bill? What about Hall, Marsh and Abel for Bryan Reynolds’s?

  142. I think I’d rather have Senga at 5/$75 m, even with the opt out, than Walker at 4/$85 – in fact I’m pretty sure of it. I think the Mets games those transactions way better than the Phillies. One thing about DD and free agents – you essentially, never look at a deal and think – wow, great deal, how did he do that? I like DD a lot but his contracts can be onerous and often, just downright bad. It’s a thing. Just saying.

    1. That ghost fork is a scary pitch and he tops out at 102. Did not see his walk rate, not that it matters. Looks like nice signage for the Mets.

      1. Anthony…………once he develops the “no seeum light switch pitch” he’ll be lights out so to speak!😉👍

    2. Walker at 4-$72m is a more proven pitcher. Senga is a wildcard who could be very good or not so much. He has a walk rate around 10% which is a flag.

      1. They do use a little smaller baseball then American standards
        and has better grip, making it easier to manipulate and spin.
        ….and since he is barely 6′ makes you pause a little on smallish RHPs….Tanaka, Ohtani and Darvish are pretty big….Dice K was about 6′ however.

      2. For what its worth – Jim Bowden does not share the industry’s love of Senga. Says he is not going to be as effective as everyone thinks – and he quoted certain reasons. I heard it last week on winter meetings preview on sirius radio ???? Steve Phillips and Duquette did not argue with him.

        1. Keith Law’s write up in the Athletic notes the debate is if he can remain a starter in the MLB due his limited command and questionable slider.

          He notes that he will at least begin as a starter.

  143. What could Hall bring from Marlins? I like Hall but could use more bullpen arms and Marlins always seem to have some.

    1. I think with 1 hr in 15ab, hall would be my dh against righties at least until Harper gets back.

      Vierling is either in cf or lf against lefties depending if Schwarbers defense is a greater detriment than Marsh offense. Gunthrie could play in the mix in cf and IF.

      Many changes could occurr before or in the early part of spring training. But I think guys would like to know their teammates ASAP.

  144. I Thought Bohm hates philly, He was having dinner in Prime in Atlantic city Friday, when i saw him

  145. I prefer Walker, even accounting for the contracts. We have 2 Wild Cards. How could can Ranger be? I think he has not reached his ceiling. And, maybe, probably IMO, not right out if ST, but sometime during the season, Andrew Painter is going to be a big help. We still need BP help, and even if we are not getting a Cliser, per se, we need another high leverage arm.

    1. As for BP help…some of the following remain out there…Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Brad Boxberger, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Craig Kimbrel, Matt Moore, Taylor Rogers….do not think the Phillies would need to break the bank if they planning on signing any of them.

      1. Of those options, assuming arms are healthy: I’d rank them; Rogers, Lugo, Chafin, Kimbrel. Kimbrels whip has been climbing the last couple years. For this year, I would go this route rather than trade.

        After them I don’t think they’d be much of an improvement over over guys that could be picked up in the spring. All have walk rates above 3.5/9. Ottovario and Boxberger being better options than Fulmer and Moore.

        What do you think?

        I thought 7.5/yr was plenty high for Strahn

  146. Romus, Fansided says Phillies need to make 3 moves to keep up with Mets
    1. Bassitt or Eovaldi
    2. Trade for Devers
    3. Sign any BP guys that Mets may want. I thought that was funny. Listed Ottavino, Chafin and Rogers as guys Mets will want.

    1. We don’t need Devers and we have no room for him. I’m not trading Painter/Abel for a superfluous 3B upgrade. And that’s what it would take.

  147. I disagree with Fansided, Don. We don’t need Devers. Do we need some more BP help? Yes, and I believe we will get some. They can rate the Mets SP ahead of us, but I believe Andrew Painter will switch that rating before the season is over.

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