A Mixed Bag of a Week

The Phillies missed a couple opportunities this past week.  They won a series against Miami to start the road trip.  After taking the first two games of a three-game series, they came out flat and missed an opportunity to leave Miami with a sweep.  Then they missed a chance to start the Atlanta series off with a win and send a message but blew a solid start by Suarez when they couldn’t hold onto a late lead.  After Nola was Nola in game two, the “getaway day” Phillies couldn’t hit or pitch out of the bullpen, yet again.

The Phillies return home for their final homestand of the season.  They play 2 games against Toronto and then 4 games against Atlanta.  They need to play better than they did on the road trip, especially the big bats and the bullpen.

The Phillies close out their season with a 10-game road trip with 3 games in Chicago, 4 games in Washington, and 3 games in Houston.  If you think they need 90 wins to make the playoffs, they need to find 10 wins in the next 16 games.

The Phillies are 14 games over .500 with an 80-66 record.  The NL East Division standings have long been decided.  The Phillies will finish in third place (barring a miracle).

The East Division race has developed into a real race between the Mets and Atlanta.  St. Louis has opened up a sizable lead on Milwaukee.  Los Angeles has clinched the West.  The seeding for the division winners is likely to be – West, East, Central.  However, New York and Atlanta could beat up on each other and allow the Cardinals to sneak into the second seed.

The National League Wild Card race is still a four-team race.  Atlanta is safely well in front for the first wild card if they don’t catch the Mets.  The Phillies are in third, 0.5 games behind San Diego but hold the tiebreaker.  They are 2.0 games ahead of Milwaukee and again hold the tiebreaker.

By merit of the first tie-breaker (head-to-head), the Phillies fare well against most of the probable playoff teams –

  • Los Angeles (4-3),
  • New York (5-14),
  • St. Louis (4-3),
  • Atlanta (6-9) with 4 to play,
  • San Diego (4-3),
  • Milwaukee (4-2).

The Phillies’ division record is 36-32.  Their record against the other NL divisions is 37-26.  Their interleague record, which doesn’t matter in tie-breakers, is 7-8.

For those wondering about the schedule difficulty of the other wild card teams –

Milwaukee (78-68): 12 at home 4 on the road, 10-game homestand to close out the season.

  • 3 v. NYM at home,
  • 4 at CIN,
  • 2 v. STL at home,
  • 4 v. MIA at home, and
  • 3 v. ARI at home.

San Diego (81-66): 12 at home 3on the road, 9-game homestand to close out the season.

  • 3 v. STL at home,
  • 3 at COL,
  • 3 v. LAD at home,
  • 3 v. CWS at home,
  • 3 v. SF at home.

Key Dates: some are guesstimates.  Bold dates are pretty much confirmed thru announcements, some digging, and some extrapolation from previous years. Italics are those dates that can’t yet be confirmed.

It has been a long time since we cared about playoff dates.

  • October 3, 2022: Opening Day for the Arizona Fall League
    • November 5, 2022: AFL Home Run Derby
    • November 6, 2022: AFL Fall Stars Game
    • November 11, 2022: AFL Play-in Semifinal
    • November 12, 2022: AFL Championship Game
  • October 5, 2022: Final scheduled day of the MLB regular season
  • October 11, 2022: Opening Day for the Mexican Pacific League
  • October 15, 2022: Opening Day for Dominican Winter League
  • October 22, 2022: Opening Day for the Venezuelan Winter League
  • October 28, 2022: MLB World Series begins (FOX)
    • October 7-9, 2022: NL Wild Card A/B (ESPN)
    • October 11-16, 2022: NLDS A/B (Fox or FS1)
    • October 18-25, 2022: NLCS (Fox or FS1)
  • November 2-6, 2022: Trading resumes the day after the World Series ends.
  • November 6-10, 2022: Five days after the conclusion of the World Series is the deadline for teams to make qualifying offers to their eligible former players who became free agents.
  • November 12, 2022: Start of the Colombian Winter League 
  • November 4, 2022: Opening Day for the Roberto Clemente Puerto Rico Professional Baseball League
  • November 10, 2022: Opening Day for the Australian Baseball League
  • November 16-20, 2022: Fifteen days after the conclusion of the World Series is the deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers.
  • November 18 or 21, 2022: Deadline to submit 40-man rosters before Rule 5 Draft
  • November, 2022: GM Meetings 
  • November, 2022: Owners Meetings
  • November, 2022: MLBPA executive board meeting
  • December 1, 2022 – Non-tender Deadline – The last day for teams to offer 2023 contracts to unsigned players (pre-arb and arb eligible) on their 40-man rosters.  Non-tendered players become free agents.
  • December 4-11, 2022: The 2022 Baseball Winter Meetings will take place in San Diego, California.
    • December 9, 2022: Rule 5 Draft
  • December 9, 2022: Opening Day for the Panamanian Baseball League
  • December 15, 2022: Close of the 2021-2022 international signing period
  • January 15, 2023: Opening of the 2022-2023 international signing period
  • January, 2023: Deadline for teams and players to submit salary figures for arbitration
  • February 2-10, 2023: Caribbean Series (Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Colombia, Panama, Cuba, Curacao)
  • February, 2023: Voluntary spring training reporting date for pitchers, catchers, and players recovering from injuries
  • February, 2023: Voluntary spring training reporting date for position players
  • February, 2023: Mandatory spring training reporting date
  • February 24, 2023: Opening Day for Spring Training Games
    • February 25, 2023: (SS) v. New York Yankees (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • February 25, 2023: (SS) at Detroit (Lakeland), 1:05 PM
    • February 26, 2023: v. Minnesota Twins (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • February 27, 2023: at Pittsburgh Pirates (Bradenton) Time TBD
    • February 28, 2023: v. Toronto Blue Jays (SS) (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 1, 2023: at Minnesota Twins (Fort Myers) Time TBD
    • March 2, 2023: at Boston Red Sox (Fort Myers) Time TBD
    • March 3, 2023: v. Detroit Tigers (SS) (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 4, 2023: v. Pittsburgh Pirates (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 5, 2023: at Toronto Blue Jays (Dunedin) Time TBA
    • March 6, 2023: at Baltimore Orioles (Sarasota) Time TBA
    • March 7, 2023: v. Tampa Bay Rays (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 8, 2023: OFF DAY
    • March 9, 2023: v. Baltimore Orioles (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 10, 2023: v. Pittsburgh Pirates (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 11, 2023: at New York Yankees (SS) (Tampa) Time TBD
    • March 12, 2023: v. Toronto Blue Jays (Clearwater) (SS) 1:05 PM
    • March 13, 2023: OFF DAY
    • March 14, 2023: v. Atlanta Braves (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 15, 2023: at New York Yankees (Tampa) Time TBA
    • March 16, 2023: at Detroit Tigers (Lakeland), 6:05 PM
    • March 17, 2023:(SS) v. Toronto Blue Jays (SS) (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 17, 2023: (SS) at Toronto Blue Jays (SS) (Dunedin) Time TBA
    • March 18, 2023: at Atlanta Braves (North Port) Time TBA
    • March 19, 2023: v. Boston Red Sox (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 20, 2023: v. Baltimore Orioles (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 21, 2023: at Pittsburgh Pirates (Bradenton) Time TBA
    • March 22, 2023: at Tampa Bay Rays (Port Charlotte) Time TBA
    • March 23, 2023: v. Detroit Tigers (SS) (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 24, 2023: at Toronto Blue Jays (Dunedin) Time TBA
    • March 25, 2023: v. New York Yankees (Clearwater) 1:05 PM
    • March 26, 2023: at Baltimore Orioles (Sarasota) Time TBA
    • March 27, 2023: at Toronto Blue Jays (Dunedin) Time TBA
    • March 28, 2023: v. Toronto Blue Jays (Clearwater) 12:05 PM
  • March 30, 2023: Season Opener at Texas Rangers
  • April 6, 2023: Home Opener v. Cincinnati Reds
  • July 2023: Rule 4 Amateur Draft
  • December 15, 2023: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period

This gives you a place to talk about the Phillies for the week.

Here are the transactions that were reported (or uncovered) this week.

9/16/2022 – Phillies placed 2B Edmundo Sosa on the 10-day IL, right hamstring strain
9/16/2022 – Phillies recalled 3B Yairo Munoz from Lehigh Valley
9/14/2022 – Phillies placed LHP Kent Emanuel on the 60-day IL
9/14/2022 – Phillies recalled LHP Kent Emanuel from Lehigh Valley
9/14/2022 – Phillies claimed RHP Tayler Scott off waivers from San Diego
9/14/2022 – RHP Tayler Scott assigned to Lehigh Valley
9/12/2022 – Phillies activated RHP Zach Eflin from the 15-day IL
9/12/2022 – Phillies transferred RHP Mark Appel from the 7- to the 60-day IL, right elbow inflammation
9/12/2022 – Phillies optioned LHP Cristopher Sanchez to Lehigh Valley
9/12/2022 – Lehigh Valley placed CF Chris Sharpe on the 7-day IL retroactive to 9/10

203 thoughts on “A Mixed Bag of a Week

  1. With the remaining schedule of games taking an unbiased approach I struggle to get 10 wins.
    TOR 1-1
    ATL 2-2
    HOU 1-2
    9-7. Hope I’m wrong..

  2. I think they’ll go 8-8 and finish with 88 but I think the Brewers will go 10-6 and also finish with 88 and we’ll sneak in due to the tiebreaker. San Diego will finish with 89 and we’ll play in St Louis (where we’ll win one game but lose the third one). Will we call it a successful season? Yes we will but 2023 calls for more.

    1. Agree, but I can easily see the brewers not making 88 wins. Will see, but I think 88 wins should be just enough

  3. I cannot call finishing 3rd in the division and making the playoffs because of an additional WC spot a successful season….sorry!

    Were there improvements? sure and we can quibble about the terminology later.

  4. I see the Brewers play the Mets tonight. Who do they have left?
    Mets and Braves are going to keep the pedal to the gas with their race.
    I think 8-8 might be more realistic but this team is hard to figure.
    Just lots of uncertain possibilities.

    1. Don53 – I agree with your 8-8. Not too dissimilar from Murray’s note above but I think the tough thing will be to beat Atlanta twice. I think it might be this:
      Toronto – 1-1 bullpen will have to win one of these
      Atlanta – 2-2
      Chicago – 1-2 – have already shown they can beat Phils
      Wash – 3-1
      Houst – 1-2

      Brewers play:
      Mets – 1-2
      Cinci – 3-1 lose only the Lodolo game
      St Lou – 1-1
      Miami – 3-1 lose the Alcantara game
      AZ – 2-1 need Zac Gallen to win his game

      10-6 for Brewers = 88 – 74 record and misses playoff due to tie breaker

      Several comments – I watched the Yankee-Brewer games and NY , despite Judge, has no offense. That is one over achieving team. They should get blown out by the Mets, Atlanta, or Dodgers – never mind Houston. As mentioned, somebody pulled the plug on Phillies offense which was non- existent. From a team with a good offense to a very inconsistent one ? I think making playoffs will be tougher than we might have thought.

  5. Don, I know they have St. Louis, Cincinnati, Marlins and DBacks, besides the Mets. I don’t think I am missing anyone. I expected the Yanks to sweep them, so they let me down. But, I can’t count on that, we need to Win games. And it is on the hitters. JTR had been hitting great until the Braves series, so he goes 0-14 until the meaningless HR in the 9th. Harper’s hitting about .150 since he’s back, Schwarber has done nothing except for an occasional solo HR, Hoskins has been quiet, and Castellanos is on the IL for however much longer, so we really can’t count on him. DMAR, to me, we have to make the Playoffs. That counts as a successful season only because of the 10 years we have failed to do so. If we blow it, it’s a total failure.

    1. Matt, The Braves announcers commented the Phillies are 2 out of 32 hits with RISP. No wonder they lose these games.
      At this point you have to count on yourself to get the job done.
      I totally agree a total failure if no playoffs.
      Schwarber has 3 outcomes. K, pop up or HR. I still cannot believe he hits leadoff.
      Regarding Harper all I know is that my grandson did not hit well after being hit twice in the hand this year. One on the fat part of hand and the other on left wrist. He only missed one game with each, but I know it affected him.
      I mentioned 8 and 8 but really think that may be difficult.

  6. It has been a problem all year, Don, IMO, the biggest problem. That is our poor showing with RISP. And, whether or not we make the Playoffs, one that has to be fixed for next season. We can’t have another season with Schwarber batting lead off. I don’t, frankly, care that he wants to bat there, he is ineffective, and it is not in the best interests of the team. That is not the only issue, it is a team wide problem.

  7. The saddest part to me is when they do score runs, its always Bohm, Stott, Sosa!!, now Guthrie, Maton….the guys they are paying a billion dollars to are choking down the stretch leaving it up to the kids and the guys who arent supposed to be carrying the team to provide the offense. Need Bryce and Schwarber to start earning their contracts or the collapse we all fear may happen.

    1. Deg,,,do not disagree with you with the big contract guys, and it is certainly it is a boon that the young players are producing.
      Something to look forward to beyond this season.
      Still I want Dave D to make changes this off-season…whether they make the play-offs or not.

  8. Dan, up until the Atlanta series, JTR had been hot, and hitting very well. Castellanos was counted on to be a big run producer. Not only were his HRS way down, but he was a prolific 2Bs hitter as well, and that seems to have not followed him to Philly. Who knows when he will be back. We’ve discussed Schwarber’s batting leadoff, but he and Bruce, and Hoskins, who isn’t yet making their $, is still an important bat that needs to produce.

  9. Phillies need to “PUT THE BALL IN PLAY” WE SEE ONCE AGAIN WATING FOR THE HOME RUN. Earlier success was combo of HR and small ball.

    Batting Order/lineup
    Leadoff hitters, take pitch’s work the Pitcher
    #2 makes contact, hit and run
    #3 Power/contact bat (maybe best all a around hitter)
    #4 Power bat
    #5 Power bat

    #1 Hitter OPS (ON BASE %/SLUGGER % and AVE
    Schwarber .213 AVE OPS .794 (How many times has he had a ONE PITCH AB?
    BETTS .275 AVE OPS .899
    ALTUVA .295 AVE OPS.884
    JUDGE .316 AVE OPS 1.120
    ACUNA .271 AVE OPS .735
    NIMMO .265 AVE OPS .778


    The daycare are working the pitcher, putting the ball in play. SP are burdened to not make a mistake an Now BP USAGE IS BECOMING AN ISSUE??? (GIRARDI)

    Why are we using a pitcher for one inning, one batter then use a New Pitcher, wasting a player. Really!!! we want a BP pitcher to have a clean inning!!!!!

  10. The Phillies are one of the six teams that will be charged with the luxury tax this season. The amount they will pay is $3.6M. Romus says he will pick up the tab. Let’s hear it for the man.

  11. It is painfully clear to me that the Braves are simply better than the Phillies at almost every position except Catcher. RF is probably a wash. and we probably have a slight advantage in LF. Otherwise, any objective observer would take their starting 1b, 2b, SS, 3B and CF over ours in a second. All materially better.

    But what is most impressive to me is how exceptional the Braves have been at drafting and developing. Dansby was a prospect trade of first round picks. d’Arnaud was a FA signing. they got Olson from a trade of prospects. But Riley, Harris, Acuna, Albies are all homegrown stars. and Grissom looks like a stud too. On the starting pitching staff…Strider, Fried and Wright all homegrown stars. Ian Anderson looks like he will have a long MLB career too. It’s so impressive. These aren’t just ok players. These are absolute stars. They will go 1 and 2 in the NL ROY race. It’s really remarkable.

  12. Watching Mets vs Brewers.
    Scroller shows only 4 hitters hitting above 300 in NL.
    Kind of amazing.
    V1, Braves have been good at developing for quite some time.
    But to win the WS they simply hit lighting in a bottle last year with all of their pickups.
    Everyone turned out great. They look really good now with the roster they put out on field.

  13. The lesson is clear. You cannot trade or buy your way to a championship. The core of such teams is home-grown players. Maton, Stott, and Bohm should be the future infield. It was foolish to give up on O’Hoppe, Moniak and apparently Hall. Buying big money players with most of their best years behind them is a gamble and often a foolish one.

      1. Agreed. There is more than one way to build a great MLB team. Rob didn’t capture my point. I was admiring the Braves draft and development abilities. Wasn’t saying that is the only way.

        1. It is generally the best way… if your team can pull it off. Having young talent producing on the cheap, sets your team up for FA signings. Your owner has to spend though. That combo of drafting well with deep pockets can be elusive -aka the dodgers. The braves would have been so much more dangerous with Middleton at the helm. Of course it’s not the only way, hopefully the Phillies can start adding in the young cheap talent to replace the aging vets. That said, braves are going to be tough for a long time.

        2. Yes, V1! The Braves have made bad free agent signings. Their last year’s draft on paper looks stellar – as I think you pointed out, but they have made some draft choices that didn’t pan out They had one of their top architechs booted out for cheating. Regardless they have had a long record of success. How many division championships in a row was it? For a long time they had the money of the TBS Superstation behind them. Maybe they invested some of it in things other than personnel.

          1. Here is the scouting report from a Braves blog about Strider, who was a 2020 4th round pick:

            4. Spencer Strider, RHP, Clemson – The Braves went way off the board with this pick to the point I hadn’t considered Strider as a prospect for this year as a redshirt sophomore. Strider was a top recruit three years ago, saw a large role as a freshman and struggled a bit with command, then missed last year after Tommy John surgery. He was back this year in the short season, but he hasn’t shown much to get him drafted in college prior to this season and has real reliever risk with his delivery and health history. The good news is he is a live arm with some stuff, so it’s not like the Braves didn’t draft a potential lottery ticket if they can get him back to being the pitcher he was out of high school.

            This is just awesome scouting and development.

            1. I do think Griff McGarry is a similar pitcher to Strider coming out of college and so far in the system.
              Both with live arms, and past control issues.
              Next season we could see mcGarry be the newest Phillies pitcher on the scene….Spencer Howard would have been that, but for the shoulder weakness and velo decline.

            2. I agree Romus. Griff is a potentially huge win for our drafting and developing system under the new regime. High end prospect from a 5th round pick. Very exciting prospect. When we start seeing guys like Griff be regular occurrences, we will be an elite org.

            3. For some reason….I seem to continue to overlook players from our system like Ranger/Bailey and Seranthony….all capable pitchers who could and appear to be blossoming into top caliber MLB players.

            4. Ranger and Seranthony are wonderful examples of development. We probably overlook them because neither was a draft pick. both were LatAm signing and we focus a lot on the draft here. But also because the big club puts so much money into drafting.

              Imo Falter is just an org arm. Not an elite prospect. Will eat innings, but is a #5/6 type starter.

    1. Glad the Harpers were rooting on the Birds….however, come Oct 29, they will not be rooting on the the other PA team, the Lions in Beaver Stadium.
      It will be the team from Ohio..

  14. For the past few years the Phillies’ achilles has been a bad bullpen and the inability to beat certain lesser teams like the Marlins. And so the playoffs were unattainable. Now they have beaten the lesser teams and are more than likely finally in the postseason. Lesson: beating teams you’re supposed to will get you to the playoffs. But until they can beat more competitive teams like Atlanta and the Mets, they won’t even sniff late October.

  15. I think this team is missing it’s own JROLL, it’s own Nails or it’s own Charlie Hustle/it’s own Red Light player

    Watching Scherzer last night I was thinking man not only is that guy really good but he’s a fierce competitor. I don’t really see that from Nola or Wheeler. Yes they are both really good but they seem to lack a certain pizazz.

    The Mets went 77-85 last year. They are 94-55 this season with 13 remaining. What changed? They added Scherzer, Canha, Marte and Bassitt and of course Buck but the core of DeGrom, Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo and McNeil remained.

    And I mean they can’t claim health as DeGrom missed most of the season, Scherzer quite a few games Megill went down early, they get virtually nothing from the catcher position and so on.

    I think its likely they had a culture problem and they were able to fix it with a few key guys.

    1. DMAR….bingo….you win the prize.
      Phillies have plenty of good players, and good guys, but maybe fall a little short of that ‘mean and lean’ guy…Harper is close to that pizazz guy, maybe Schwarber or Castlellanos. Thor had it at one time with the Mets.
      Just not sure who the Phillies have or need to acquire that will bring that cultural element..

      1. Me either Romus but I am sure DD knows and again we’ll have to wait and see what the off season brings.

        No GM worth his salt is going to look at his team 12.5 back of the division, pushing up against the LT and think we have what we need to win a championship right here.

        Yeah they will play the white wash game if they get a WC with vague sound bites but as I always say don’t listen to what they say watch what they do.

  16. Micky Mo since returning from IL, 8 games, 1-3-.206, 11k’s in 29 AB’s.
    Overall, 14 games, 3-6-.232. 16k’s in 43 AB’s, 0BB’s.

    1. Denny….he will probably always have a lot of swing and miss….but he looks to be able to power the ball when he does make contact. He could be a TTO (three true outcomes…HR, BB, H) guy…..

      1. TTO means HR, BB and Strikeouts. That model only works if you have a high walk rate. There is no model of a successful MLB player where they have 30%+ strikeout rate and a low single digit walk rate. MM will never be a 30+ homer guy. That stat line just doesn’t work.

        1. V1 – you are on fire. I totally agree with this and with your post yesterday about how the Braves build/built their team. Much like the Eagles in football, the Braves know how to build a sustainable, excellent team; a team designed to win championships. Meanwhile, in Philly, we are in the habit of selling our best prospects to make it to the playoffs every year and seem surprised and disappointed when things don’t go well. And I get the desperation and profound frustration and I respect that the new organization is different (although I am sure Middleton is applying tons of pressure to win now, which is understandable, but not always helpful). That said, winning organizations need a ready supply of good, young talent and routinely make trades where they get more value than they surrender. The Phillies are getting there, but they are not there yet.

            1. The Braves just take the “cock and reload” approach. You can do that when you regularly hit huge on later round picks such as the Braves’ 3rd round (Harris), 4th round (Strider) and 11th round (Grissom) studs.

              It would make my head explode but I’m really encouraged by players such as Baker and McGarry. But yes, it’s hard to overstate just how disastrous the Klentak/Alamarz/McPhail team proved to be.

  17. The Phillies have a killer schedule the rest of the way. I realize they have 4 with the Nationals but even those won’t be easy considering the way they are playing.

    Despite being pounded by the Marlins last night (big error by Morel), the Cubs are really dangerous. They are not playing like a team that has only won 62 games.

    1. Im not saying you are wrong, and they are playing scrappy, but if you are scared of the cubs, you dont belong in the playoffs.

      1. I’m still very confident the Phillies will make the playoffs.
        IMO, 90 W’s is still a reasonable expectation.

  18. And Ben Brown is the 4th best at AA of Painter, Abel & McGriff:
    -Painter, 5G, 28IP, 25H, 2BB, 37K, .238 avg against, WHIP .95, 2.54 ERA.
    – McGriff, 8G, 32IP, 13H, 20BB, 39K, .123 Avg against, 1.01 WHIP, 2.20 ERA.
    – Abel, 5G, 23IP, 19H, 12BB, 27K, .224 Avg against, 1.35 WHIP, 3.52ERA.
    -Brown, 7G, 31IP, 33H, 13BB, 44K, .273 Avg against, 1.48 WHIP, 4.06ERA.

  19. .

    6. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

    Preseason Prospect Grade: 45 FV
    Painter was the 13th overall pick in 2021 and to be picked that high as a prep righty when every team is aware of the risks picking a prep arm that high, you have to check a lot of boxes. Painter (great pitcher name) had shown plus traits across the board for years, along with starter command. Often, in their first pro seasons, these types will be fastball command-focused with higher walk rates and lower K rates as they focus on first principles to ready themselves for the big leagues. Painter had other ideas, going from 92-96 mph for most high school starts to sitting at 95-99 and hitting 100 mph. Like Ricky Tiedemann below, this extra arm speed also helped the crispness of his secondary stuff. His command didn’t regress at all and he reached Double-A as a 19-year-old, dealing all the livelong day en route to landing at 32nd on my midseason list.

    ➡ Griff McGarry made McDaniel’s HM list

  20. On the TTO discussion, we have one of those and IMO one of those is enough. But, did you catch our old buddy Kapler today? Seems there was a mutiny of sorts among the pitching staff, but I believe it moved from the mound to the manager’s office immediately thereafter. Was it resolved to the satisfaction of both parties……stay tuned! Heh, heh.

    1. Amazing .
      When Posey was running the team…and Crawford and Belt were having their last hurrahs last year…everything was rosy on the Bay.

      1. Squelch the anarchy, how would you like to go to AAA……..honest I won’t ever say anything bad again, really I promise, really I do.

  21. Skeet:
    ‘On the TTO discussion, we have one of those and IMO one of those is enough’…… definitely Schwarber, (49%) , getting up there -Rhys (35%) and Harper (36%) …now, no one will catch Joey Gallo and his career TTO % of 58%

  22. I was hoping I would get to see Stubbs. I heard he’s working on his slider. They said it comes in and drops like a rock.😉

  23. Kyle Gibson is about as reliable as the Phillies BP lately. Thank God he’s only got three more starts left in his Phillies career.
    And the Phillies Day Care could have used better supervision in the field tonight. Bohm misplaced a ground ball. Marsh looked like he could have caught that ball against the wall he got hurt on. And Stott not only lost a ball in the lights/sky (Schwarber couldn’t find it either), but he made two brutal throws, and almost killed camera man Art Coleman (could gave broken a bone in his face).

    Last, but not least … Let’s go, Mets go!

  24. I won’t blame Thomson for WHO he went out to. Brogdon and Hand had been good all year until recently, so he can be forgiven for expecting them to not implode.

    However… WHY can’t he just let Eflin pitch more than one inning? I thought that was the whole reason he was coming back faster. Now we’ve lost a game AND potentially burned 3 reliever in the process (assuming Coonrod has been relegated to mop-up, which I guess I shouldn’t assume at this point).

    As happy as I am with his management of the young guys and the hitters in general, his bullpen decisions have been confounding me; especially since Seranthony’s injury (and continuing since he’s returned). Is there something about managing Philly that makes people terrible bullpen strategists? Is it a FO mandate that you must pull relievers from a hat?

    1. This game was not a winnable game. Up to the point where Harper made the base running gaffe and Bohm misplayed the ball and then Stott made the terrible throw we had a chance. Thereafter, I could hear Don Meredith singing “turn out the lights, the parties over”. I think if he thought we were in it he might of let him go a little further. Ugly bugger, wasn’tit?

      1. Agree (and was thinking the same thing) with Dan K. What is the plan with Eflin? Why is he only pitching one inning per appearance? The BP is a hot mess right now. This team has three (mostly) reliable arms: Alvarado/Ser-Ant’ny/Robertson. Eflin looks like a 4th effective arm. He’s suffered from knee woes, not elbow or shoulder issues. He should be able to throw more than one inning by now.
        And I’d have no problem with DD taking a flier on Griff McGarry in the pen at this point. I don’t care about the 40-man implications. Can McGarry be any worse than Coonrod or Brogdon or Bellatti at this point? He could end up giving the club a late season jolt of much needed energy.

  25. I went to this game and midway through I couldn’t tell if I was at the Linc or at CBP ? How does a team lose when they have a 4 and then a 5 run inning ? Simply, awful fielding – missed balls that were catchable (and not called errors) plus a bullpen that almost forced the Phillies mgr to take the married men off the field for fear they would get impaled. It looked like a howitzer range with the Toronto line drives . And that over fed little catcher/dh Kirk can just flat out hit – after 2 strikes he was poking the ball into open fields at will. I think Stubbs should have been brought in much earlier – it wouldn’t have made much difference ? Incidentally, JT looked like the all-star premier catcher he is – this is a season for the ages.

    1. brought back memories of 15-14 1993 world series game 4.
      heading down tonight and any excitement level i have is in regards to watching the Jays bats. Of course hope Wheeler can get through his couple innings.
      They might have to get D Hall back on the roster more for his pitching than his hitting. By the way, they are sending him to Jamaica on the Phillies vacation trip this summer, which is nice.

  26. The only fun part of the game was the appearance of the info box in the upper left corner of the screen when Kirk was hitting and Gibson pitching. That combo of last names produced the full name of one of my favorite players in the 1980s

  27. Why re-sign Kyle Gibson, let Noah Skirrow take his place. Save $10+ million a year, get same or better result.
    Noah Skirrow (2.65) pitched six innings of shutout ball at LHV, allowing one hit and one walk.

    1. Seriously? the 2.65 ERA you cited is in a 17 IP sample size at AAA. His ERA in AA with a 98 IP sample was 4.65. Come on Denny. Skirrow is an org arm

      1. Maybe these types are better than paying tens of millions for the Gibson’s, Minor’s, Moore’s, Smyly’s, current Syndergaard’s, etc. Of the world.

        1. Kyle Kendrick comes to mind on that front but that was a much different time and team. Incredible defensively and offensively. After Hamels there really wasn’t much in that rotation.

          1. I’m just frustrated with our pitching choices. Wasting so much $ for not much in return. Dodgers, Braves & Mets have had a lot of pitching injuries but have the best records .

            1. I hear you, but the solution has to actually solve the problem. Our pitching isn’t our problem. Our pitching staff is our biggest strength. We have the 4th best fWAR. Basically the same as the Braves (3rd best) and Mets (5th).

              Our hitting was supposed to be our best asset, but is only 11th in fWAR. Mets 5th and Atlanta 7th. So we have really under performed hitting. Notably Castellanos and Schwarber, both of whom’s OPS are down considerably from last year.

              But our biggest weakness is our defense. 26th fWAR with -33 DRS. The Mets defense has +6 DRS and the Braves have a +17 DRS.

              Our pitching is the same as the Mets and braves but our hitting is worse and our defense is massively worse. We need to solve the actual problem. Either our hitting or our defense has to massively improve to jump the Mets and Braves.

            2. I think you have to break those numbers down by month to determine your problems as they pertain to winning and losing:

              The OPS+ against by month for our pitching staff vs. our hitters OPS+ was
              April 103 to 112 to record 11-11
              May 105 to 98 to record 10-17
              June 82 to 113 to record 19-8
              July 85 to 98 to record 15-10
              Aug 101 to 121 to record 18-11
              Sept 119 to 117 to record 7-9

              Unless I am mistaken that 4th Fwar rank comes mostly from exceptional pitching in June and July. The median avg. Pitching score 99 to the hitter score 109.

              To my naked eye the pitching may have been a strength early but its been pretty bad as of late. I wish I could have figured out to see how we faired defensively by month.

              That too feels like it matured some through the season. Maybe not.

            3. Decent options in Minors to be starters are: Falter (currently in majors), Sanchez, Plassmeyer, Lindow, and Glogowski. These are all somewhat under the radar besides the big 3 SP prospects. They are at different levels and such but they keep ERA low, limits walks, and limit hits. They are not big strike out pitchers but pitchers like Falter and Plassmeyer have real good control and that there is huge for the majors.

  28. V1, Hinkie, Romus, et. Al…………you guys who love the stat algorithms. Read….Freddie Freeman the forgotten man in the NLMVP race……Tony Blengino

  29. The question whether or not we can blow this Playoff spot has already been answered. We certainly can. Gibson was awful last night and the BP was worse. I really have little faith in the team, and figure they just find ways to lose. Stott has been really good defensively, so, of course, he makes 2 awful throws. We have to be the underdog in the next 5 games also, since with the Wheeler start tonight no one knows how many innings he can go after the layoff. then 4 vs Atlanta, and even though we miss Strider, we don’t hit the rest of their SPs very well. Very pessimistic Phils fan.

    1. matt13…..missing the playoffs, for the who knows how many Sep collapses now in a row, does give Dave D plenty of reasons to make substantial changes.

      1. LOL I don’t see making or not making the playoffs (barely) by addition of expanded playoff spots that much of an opinion changer for the off season.

        The best team in baseball right now IMO is the Astro’s and their 98 wins. DD should be measuring himself against that level of team.

  30. I get that, Romus, but what can he actually do? Get another FA, add a better SP than Gibson? I have a concern that Middleton says DD had his shot at exceeding the Cap and they still failed so he doesn’t authorize more spending.

  31. Hey All. Second post here. But very down on this team right now. My major task for next season is finding a 3b. Bohm has to be moved to another position. 1B? Don’t know where else he’s fit. With Hoskins and bohm both at the corners it’s just awful to watch. Love bohm as a players but come on he just can’t play third even adequately. Hoskins should be moved this off-season. Can save cash and open 1B up for bohm or schwarber. Don’t hate Hoskins but he’s just an offensive 1B that can be easily replaceable at a fraction of the cost and not giving up too much in the way of production. Thoughts?

    1. Chris M……I am in the camp of moving Hoskins also.
      His value this off-season is at its peak…..Boras will be expecting a LTC offer this off-season from the Phillies.
      The normal offer probably would look like $18/20M AAV for 5 years with a 6th year buy-out…..Boras will probably reject it expecting he could get more on the FA market.
      IMO, Dombrowski should move him for prospects…..and as v1 suggested a few weeks ago…move Castellanos to 1B.
      I think Bohm ends up staying at 3B for another year at least.

      1. Romus…to me they just have to modify the roster where there simply not so many DH guys playing the field. Plus, a true leadoff hitter is a must IMO.

        1. Don..agree.
          But how do you maneuver players like Schwarber/Castellanos/Bohm/Hoskins…..all positional limited defensive players?
          The logical one to go first would be Rhys..i am sure there also could be demand for a Schwarber…..as for Castellanos there may be demand but with reservations. Bohm is cost controlled and appears will become a core piece for years down the road.

          Lead-off hitter…I think there are two that could fill that role, Stott or Marsh.

  32. Thanks DMAR, just did just that. I am looking forward to see where Jim has that $ coming from. He has us fitting Turner and $ for Hoskins into that under the LT #

    1. I misspoke regarding the extension. I only learned about the discussions yesterday. I haven’t had time to fit it into my discussion on next year’s budget.

      Personally, I think Hoskins is a tough trade. He has more value to the Phillies than one year of him to another team. He won’t bring back much value as a one-year rental.

      Next season is his age-30 season. If Boras prices him out of an extension, he’ll hit the market as an age 31, no-glove first baseman. Seems like a lot of those are available each season.

      I think he plays out his contract this season and is allowed to walk. I don’t think a trade this year makes sense. He’s not bringing much back in my estimation. The best internal option at first is Hall who I don’t think is in their plans.

      People can’t be serious about moving Castellanos over there. He was a butcher at third, is a butcher in the outfield. You can’t just move a guy to a new position and expect him to be able to play it. (Remember Hoskins in LF?) First base is a very difficult position to teach (per Moneyball).

      Schwarber? A lot of catchers get time there in the low minors, but not necessarily the top ones. Schwarber may or may not have gotten some play there years ago, but he’s about as mobile as a fire hydrant. Bohm is the team’s third baseman for now. We all have to accept it.

      1. Castellanos was an infielder …3B… when he came up with the Tigers…..no different than Bohm now.
        He played over 500 games at third base….so he can field a grounder I would hope…..and do not have to hold your breath and worry about his throwing errors like he had with the Tigers, a least at first base that would be minimalized. IMO, he may be able to handle it.

        As for Hoskins……I think prospects is what he could bring back in return value. Like I said before…..if Belt leaves the Giants they could be a player for him….and they have a few pitching prospects in hi-A that are intriguing and do not need 40 protection for another year or two. Plus the fact one less $10/111M contract for 2023 to worry about under the Lux Tax.
        I see he is having his normal Sept so far….220/.259/.400 with a 27% K rate.

        Finally, Darick Hall, IMO could also fill in quite nice for Hoskins, if he is moved and someone like Castellanos does not do it.

        1. Don’t think it really matters what they get in return for Hoskins. You trade him to save the $$$ to use elsewhere.

          It’s obvious that they need to get some better defensive players who are able to make more contact. Too much swing and miss up and down the lineup.

        2. Castellanos was signed as a DH. He’s playing RF because he has to, not because he wants to. Playing 3B is probably something that he doesn’t want to do. The Phillies have played a bunch of players at 3B and not one of them was Castellanos. He’s not going back to 3B.

          Your main reasons for trading Hoskins to the Giants benefits the Phillies way more than the Giants. To the Giants credit, they have competed this season but they should be tanking. They can’t compete with the Dodgers and Padres right now and their roster is aging. Their farm system is in the bottom half of the league. There’s absolutely no reason for the Giants to be trading for Hoskins who’s going to enter FA in 2024. Now if the Phillies are willing to take back a real longshot lotto ticket (like McKinley Moore for Adam Haseley), then the Giants would be interested.

      2. Boston tried Schwarber at 1B quite a bit last season after they traded for him and honestly he may not be great in LF but he was worse at 1B

        We don’t know the answer but the big question I believe is will BH be able to start the season in RF next year. If not that will have a big effect on their off season dilemma.

        1. Yea, I don’t see that Schwarber works at 1b. I don’t know if Castellanos can play there or not. I know he’s not good in RF but appears to be a better athlete than Hoskins so can he be serviceable?

          Harper’s elbow situation is really the wildcard in opening up the DH for Schwarber/Castellanos to play everyday.

  33. Speaking of free agency, I hope the Phillies offer Gibson the QO. Undoubtedly, he will sign a 3-4 year contract with another club and the Phils get a 2nd round pick or he accepts the QO. Guys, before you get all over me, I’m only kidding.

    A friend who lives in Minneapolis told me when Philadelphia traded for Gibson that he’d give the team 5-6 innings with a 4.50-5.00 ERA. Spot on. Tonight’s game is the MLB free viewing. Do I really want to put myself through torture?

    1. Yeah, I was firmly anti-Gibson at the time of the trade. Knew he wouldn’t keep up the pace he had set in Texas, and figured he be an okay 5 at best.

      But I kept my mouth shut about him while he was performing well. Now I’m just ready to have him off the roster. He has been BRUTAL. He’d certainly be better on a decent defensive team. But even there, I’d only expect a mid-4 ERA. Here he’s an unmitigated disaster waiting to happen.

  34. I was thinking yesterday that a 3-3 homestand at the minimum. I am not sure they can do that now. I am seeing 8 wins as a real difficult task at the moment. I turned it off after first two got on in 8th and score 10-5. I missed half the runs scored.

    I was thinking though last night that one of the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers will not make the NLCS. Those 3 are so good. I agree the Astros are really good, but their division is not as strong as some others. I think they will be a difficult out in the AL.

  35. Skeet – It would be difficult to dump those high priced salaries/contracts if there are no takers and I can’t believe there are any takers.

    1. Castellanos, no……but maybe a gamble by someone on Schwarber. I do agree with you guys though neither one has had the season that will bring people calling.

  36. Looks like Rays- 31-year old 3B/1B Yandy Diaz may be available this off-season.
    Doubt now Rays keep Randy Arozarena and Diaz on the team together after last night’s post-game altercation.
    Fours years ago this month Mariners at the time, Jean Segura and Dee Gordon had their own disagreement….someone usually goes

      1. DMAR….not sure what kind of a fielder Diaz is….last thing the Phillies need is another no-field, decent hitting player.
        Somehow Dombrowski has to find a way of tightening the defense, without sacrificing offense.

  37. Need a lead off hitter that doesn’t strikeout 30% of the time. Need to get Schwarber out of the lead off spot.

  38. Two abysmal outings in a row by both Bryson Stott and Ser-Ant’ny. But DO NOT overlook what Bryce Harper is doing … or better yet … not doing. He came up very small a couple of times tonight with runners (plural) in scoring position. For the month of September, Harper is .167/.264/.317. He has to give the team more than this. He cannot shrink in the middle of a playoff push.
    BTW … I’m posting this in the 8th inning. Fingers crossed Harper gets another shot in the 9th, and finally comes through. 🤞🤨

  39. Another failed SerA appearance, no scoring from us. Can we lose 10 straight? Harper swinging at 1st pitch, grounding out to P, was a terrible AB! Schwarber was worse K’d on ball 4. We need more than JTR to step up and we haven’t gotten it.

  40. These younguns keep making this season exciting! Hopefully they can wake up Castellanos and Harper.
    Huge win tonight.

  41. Well that sure felt like a season saving win. Great contributions from Matt Vierling and Dalton Guthrie!!!

    1. I was busy last night, but I think you can thank one man for many of the advances that Vierling, Bohm and Realmuto has made and that’s Kevin Long. When the season started, Realmuto and Vierling in particular were using just one third of the field – namely, the opposite field. This had the effect of both making them predictable and robbing them of most of their power. Bohm had similar problems. I am convinced that Long’s work has made them quicker to the ball and has allowed them to use the entire field. My view on Vierling is that he’s a guy you keep around because, not only can he play a bunch of positions, but there’s a possibility that he takes a big step forward. I am also curious about Dalton Guthrie. He may turn out to be one of these very sneaky, useful players. He hits, he gets on base, he has a bit of power, he’s fast. It’s an attractive skill set.

      1. Catch…..the thing about Guthrie that stood to me was that he seemed in control of himself and the moment asn’t.to big for him. Like what I see so far.

    1. Agreed. Shutting him down was the right thing to do. Basically, Wheeler hasn’t been himself all year. What we saw tonight was 2021 Wheeler. Those extra few MPH on the fastball make a truly enormous difference. The difference between a very good pitcher and a shut down ace.

  42. The Guardians match up well for a Hoskins trade. They have a huge 40 man crunch this off season, and I read they need a RH 1B. The youngest team in the league (younger than any AAA team!), they could use some veteran leadership.

    On the other hand, they really value high-contact hitters.

    1. I just don’t see this happening from either side.

      I doubt the Phillies will move Hoskins or let him walk before he becomes a free agent. Letting him go means you need another first baseman who is pretty much a sure thing and that would not be one of the players currently in the minors and so the guy you sign is likely to cost about what you’d pay Hoskins. As for the Guardians taking him on, that’s not their player development model. They are not looking to trade for guys one year away from free agency as a general rule (they are looking for potential stud minor leaguers like Andres Gimenez who can replace the veterans they are trading away) and if they are, I doubt they would give the Phillies much for him.

      1. You have Hall who has already proven he can be the strong side of a platoon. Put Bohm there when facing lefties. This give you more of an opportunity to utilize the bench and keep other players engaged. It seems so obvious…

  43. Brewers remaining schedule:
    –4 @ Cincy
    –2 home Cardinals
    –4 home Marlins
    –3 home DBacks
    …….maybe the Marlins can do to the Brewers what they use to do to the Phillies in past Septembers.

    1. Matt, I turned it off after HR made it 3-0. Was thinking here we go again.
      Opponents score on BP. Phils never score on other BP.
      But I was wrong. Got back up at 2 and saw Vierling had a walk off single.
      Still way too many wasted at bats with guys in scoring position.
      Phils may sneak in, and it looks as though Cards cannot score either right now. Think I saw it was 20 some innings without scoring.
      Phillies just do not make anything easy. IMO just not a very strong fundamentally sound team. Also, as someone said a few days ago about Mets adding the right guy’s Phillies have not added that DAWG who demands that all give it their all. One play stood out to me last night. Either the 7th or 8th and Blue Jays leadoff hitter gets on. That was normal. Your team is fighting for their playoff life and Rhys is just having a social get together with whoever the runner was. Just struck me that Pete Rose would not have been like that. Or J Roll or many others who would have been tuned in.

    2. Romus…those look less daunting than the Phillies remaining games. 7 for 7 vs Cubs and Nats would go a long way. But unlikely. Astros and Braves could be interesting.

    3. Romus … I think it’s reasonable to expect the Brewers to win at least 9 of their final 13 games. If that happens, the Phillies would need to just go 7 and 7 over their last 14 contests. They have:
      4 vs Braves
      3 @ Cubs
      4 @ Nationals
      3 @ Astros

      Would expect the Phils to win 6 of the games w/Chicago and Washington. They cannot get swept by Atlanta this weekend. A split would be great.

        1. One of the network guys couple months ago predicted that the Phillies and Cards would time with 88 wins and Phillies owned the tie breaker. Could be a tie. Could be 88 wins. Could be tie breaker. But could be the Brewers.
          The guy at the time was ripping the Cards for how they lost one of the games to the Phillies.
          Hinkie, I agree that the Phillies cannot get swept by Braves. A win tonight could be so big. I think 6 of 7 would be great but that seems a little ambitious to me both series on the road. Hope I am wrong.

  44. Anyone know if a #9 hitter has ever gone 5-5 in a Major League game or even 4-4 in a regulation game?

    1. I’m sure it’s happened in the American league, but, because of how recent the DH is to the National League (2020 limited season and 2022), he may be the first National League hitter to go 5 for 5, although you’d think some pitcher had done that over the 145 years that the NL has been in existence. It’s a pretty huge sample size.

      1. FYI – here’s your answer. Mel Stottlemyre went 5 for 50 on September 26, 1964. It’s happened before.


        Just out of curiosity, I did some math on this. How likely is it that a pitcher could go 5 for 5?

        Let’s say the average pitcher hit .145 (I am trying to find this historical number but I think this is pretty close, although it may be a little higher and depends what era you’re using a source of comparison). If you multiple that number by itself 5 times, you get .0000641, which means the odds of a hitter having a .145 batting average getting 5 hits in 5 at bats is 6 times in 100,000 games. That said, I am guessing the chances a pitcher hits 5 times in a game would be about 10 percent (between the pitcher being replaced or the pitcher’s spot not getting 5 at bats), which would mean that the odds of a pitcher going 5 for 5 in any given game would be 6 in a million or once every 166,666.66 games. Well, it turns out there have been about 236,576 games since baseball started in 1871, which means you would expect 1 or 2 instances of a 5 for 5 game from a pitcher. So you would have expected this to occur at least once and perhaps a few times over the history of major league baseball, which is exactly what happened. It was an extremely rare occurrence and, once pitchers effectively stopped pitching complete games (in the 2000s), became a virtual impossibility. Now, with the DH, other than a Shohei Ohtani occurrence, it is literally impossible.

        1. Catch, some fantastic research and analysis. Much appreciated. Went to that boxscore, some very interesting names back then.

          1. But what’s cool is that it is possible that Matt Vierling may be the first National League hitter going 5 for 5 from the number 9 spot. Not sure if any other number 9 DH hitter in the NL has done this this year or in 2020.

            1. Actually, it wouldn’t have to be a DH, it could be any # 9 hitter – the hitter’s status as a fielder or DH is not relevant to the question.

      1. I think that was Harold Reynolds and I agree. For a right hander that left foot moving the way it does has to be banned.

      2. Agreed. Not sure how that manages to be permitted while they will call a balk on a pitcher for moving his hands a bit and then resetting.

        the guy never really comes set about 80% of the time.

    1. i was wondering last night if there had been a game before where the first three pitchers to appear in the game were all making 20 mil plus per season.

  45. Yea, I don’t see that Schwarber works at 1b. I don’t know if Castellanos can play there or not. I know he’s not good in RF but appears to be a better athlete than Hoskins so can he be serviceable?

    Harper’s elbow situation is really the wildcard in opening up the DH for Schwarber/Castellanos to play everyday.

    1. 3up….when it comes to Castellanos and 1B….I have seen other teams do it thru the years with former 3B-men like Pujols, Miggy, Zeile, and a ss like Ernie Banks, Pistol Pete, Richie Allen …the list can go on.
      Castellanos will never be a GG there….but serviceable IMO is fine to go along with a plus bat.

  46. With my doubts about our team allayed for 1 evening, I have to give kudos to Matt Vierling on a big time 5 for 5, including a walk off hit that was really great to watch. I thought it was over, just like you Don, when they scored 3 in the top of the 8th. And while I am giving kudos, that bottom of the 8th JTR HR sure lit a fire. WE need to win more games. We cannot count on teams beating the Brewers.

  47. Skeet/Catch – I have a hard time seeing Guthrie being on this roster next year. Have been a fan since seeing him in the CWS. He will be successful but not with the Phillies because of the two corners and their big contracts. If Castellanos can play 1B (and I think he can), Guthrie has a shot.

    Hinkie – The Phillies need a split with the Braves but the real key is taking two of three from the Cubs and that is not going to be easy. The Cubs have been playing really well the second half of the season.

    Romus – (Last but not least) It’s DICK Allen.

  48. I agree Matt. I have not seen it mentioned but the bunt by Vierling for his 3rd hit was perfect. That part of the game missing so much today drives me nuts. The last time I checked the object is to WIN the game. Playing smart fundamental baseball to me is the way to win more often than you lose. A HR is nice but there are so many little things a guy can do to help their team win. To me that is the most glaring thing missing from the game today. I am definitely old school.

  49. Just saw this. Says Vierling did last night something not done since 1900 by a Phillies player. Five hits in 5 at bats including a walk off.

    1. Hey catchers another one for you. I can never remember a team having two different hitters going five for five on two consecutive nights like the Phillies did with JTR and Matt. Do you guys know if that’s ever happened? Has it ever happened with the Phillies?

      1. Pops ⬇️

      2. Pops … here’s your answer

    2. JTR in rare MLB catcher country….his .6.1 fWAR at age 31 measures as the sixth best ever for catchers over 31 years old and he is also currently outperforming his 2022 AAV of $24M. Hopefully he can sustain an annual approx. 4fWAR for the next 3 years.

  50. Second big win in a row! Big bats are nice, but you win with pitching. Look at the Toronto series. Gibson got crushed early, and the Phillies lost despite scoring 11 runs of their own. The next game, Wheeler was dealing and shut the Blue Jays (one of the top offensive clubs) down. Tonight, Ranger was excellent, and he shut down another of the league’s top offensive teams (Braves).
    This is why I’d pass on Trea Turner this winter (pick up Segura’s option), and spend as much of Middleton’s stoopid money as he’s willing to fork over on high end pitching. Dombrowski needs to put the full court press on Justin Verlander (2/75M) and Edwin Diaz (5/90M).

    1. Actually, the saying is, “you win in the playoffs with pitching and defense.”

      Verlander’s ERA is 1.49 runs *lower* than his xFIP. The Phillies staff’s ERA is 0.2 runs *higher* than it’s xFIP. That is a 1.69 run differential based on defense and home stadium.

      Improving the defense also has the advantage of improving every pitcher on the staff. Houston’s entire staff gets the benefit of an ERA that is 0.72 runs better than it’s xFIP. Almost an entire run better than Philly’s entire staff. Houston’s DRS is +62. Phillies are -33.

      It’s the DEFENSE!

        1. That’s a great play. But don’t confuse a player who occasionally makes a great play with a great defensive player. Bohm remains one of the worst defensive players in MLB. I can point out many plays that he doesn’t make, but I stopped doing that because it would be annoying.

  51. Nice to see a call go our way. (That was ball 4 to Grossman.). Having lady luck on your side late in the season / playoffs is oft part of a winning formula.

  52. Speaking of Guthrie, he gives me Victorino vibes. I like the kid’s attitude and the way he’s not shrunk at ALL since he’s been put into the lineup in a playoff chase. Kind of similar to how Victorino started as a 4th outfielder Rule 5 player. I would love to see Guthrie emerge like that. Fearless and his game reminds me of Vic.

    1. At age 25, Victorino played in 153 games and he got lucky. Aaron Rowand famously ran into a wall and only played in 109 games. Then the Phillies traded Bobby Abreu so Victorino can now fill in at 2 spots.

      Guthrie is playing well, but he’s already 26 and not a true OF. He won’t be playing ahead of Schwarber/Marsh/Harper/Castellanos in 2023. Best case, his positional flexibility makes him a bench player next season. It will remain to be seen if gets the roster spot OVER Matt Vierling.

      Guthrie will NOT be handed an OF job anytime soon.

  53. The good news is the nice win for the boys last night. Glad Acuna was out of the lineup which helped a lot.

    The bad news is the Phillies are 2-4 versus the Braves in the last 6 games and in those games have scored 12 runs.

    Stott had a couple of poor games earlier in the week which accounted for 3 errors. If I’m not mistaken, he’s got just 6 for the year.

  54. So the Dodgers are considering removing Craig Kimbrel from the closer’s role.

    Remember last season when people here wanted to trade for a 33 year old Kimbrel? Since he got traded during the middle of last season from the Cubs, he’s given his teams -0.1 WAR (not a typo).

    The Cubs famously gave Kimbrel 4 years, $58M which was crazy. He stunk immediately for the Cubs and when he had a great season his 3rd season, the Cubs shipped him off first chance they got. For his 4 years, he’s given total 1.7 WAR.

    Edwin Diaz is having a monster season for the Mets with 3 WAR before he enters FA. I hope the Mets give him a crazy deal like 6 years, $90M. Diaz has really only had 2 great seasons in his 7 year career. The odds of him not living up to the contract has to be pretty high.

    1. I like to see the Phillies offer Robertson a two-year team friendly deal…and not go out in the market and dump a large $$$ contract on someone like a Familia again.
      And they can still have Alvarado, Seranthony, Brogdon, Nelson, and Bellatti still remain with the team this spring.
      Just not sure on Brad Hand
      Besides Diaz, Mets also have Trevor May and Seth Lugo as free agents after this season. And then there are two former Phils who also will be out there …Archie Bradley and Vinny Velo.

    2. I thought the White Sox were crazy to give up a young, cheap, controllable player like Madrigal for Kimbrel. I still do, even though Madrigal is hurt and has had a bad year.

  55. Maybe Guthrie could also take the emergency pitcher role from Stubbs. His dad had a decent MLB career as a pitcher.

  56. Well our 3 minor league assets that we traded at the deadline have come up short in the”big time” of September:
    – Moniak is 6 for 35 = .171 with 14ks & 0walks in Sept.
    – O’Hoppe went 2 for 10 during an elimation from playoffs.
    – Brown was knocked out in the 4th inning after 3 hits, 2 runs and 3 walks, in losing only game in Team’s playoff series win over O’ Hoppe’s Team.

    1. It’ll be interesting to see if Moniak is still in a position to start for the Angels next year. I suspect he’ll at least have competition for a spot.

      50 PAs with the Phillies: 19Ks, 3 BBs
      50 PAs with the Angels: 19Ks, 0 BBs

    1. deGrom as a FA will be very interesting. But there is no way I believe the Braves will cough up the kind of money to land the Mets “Ace”. He’s going to want at least the same money Max Scherzer got. That is being put out there by deGrom’s representatives to raise the price for Steve Cohen. Could the Rangers spend that kind of money? Maybe. They spent like drunken sailors last winter. Atlanta has never been that way. They even let the face of their franchise (Fredrick Freeman) walk last year over a few dollars.

      BTW … Cohen has got a pretty long list of important Mets to re-sign. And you know he’ll make a play for Aaron Judge too. Their payroll could hit 300M in 2023, especially if they don’t win the WS this season.

      1. If Cohen does not show any sense of fiscal restraint, and decides to continue to blow thru the tax on an annual basis…..MLB may have to adjust the penalties to reflect something harsher than the current one on the books.
        The owners may be pressure on the commissioner in those regards.
        And now with a projected three teams up for sale, and new ownership coming in, …..Angels, Nats and now maybe the Os….fiscal matters could change.

  57. Romus, How long is the new CBA? I don’t think the penalties can change without the players’ agreement. I may be wrong. And, if 3 new owners come in, and are like v1’s Uncle Steve, they will not only be mega billionaires, with huge pockets, but the desire to just Win. They will care about curbing spending as much as the Mets’ guy. If the Mets do not win the WS, Cohen will be in on every big name FA there is.

    1. matt……the new owners are billionaires, but not sure they will be in Cohen’s ballpark when it comes to $$$$.
      Two markets are considered large markets…LA and Wash….Baltimore still considered a small market team.
      The penalty changes probably need to be a CBA agenda item in 5 years.
      I know setting the tax threshold is….not sure about the penalty aspect of it….that would seem to be an owners internal item.

  58. Alec Bohm’s last 82 games:
    PA: 350
    K: 51 (14.6%)
    BB: 15 (4.3%)
    HR: 8
    RBI: 47
    .321/.351/.458 for an .809 OPS

    That K rate is elite. FWIW, if he could do this over a full season, instead of half a season, he’d be second in batting average in the National League.

    Kudos to him.

    1. Yes, and I have to think at his best he could also hit a lot more than 16 HRs. Hasn’t really unlocked his power yet!

  59. Phillies are 8th in the majors in SBs with 93 (79% success rate)…..but it seems they continue to make bone-head decisions on the bases and get picked-off.
    Segura today.

    1. I can’t see games, Romus – was it a good move that got Segura picked off? However, piling on to your general point the first-to-third decisions, or more often aversions, seem to often be terrible but perhaps that is primarily on the 3rd base coach.

    1. If we can score 2 runs in the next half inning, we likely will. There’s about to be a storm for the next ~6 hours in Philly.

    2. Agreed. 4.83 ERA in his Phillies career (4.17 FIP). If we actually make the NLDS and go four games, I would start Bailey Falter in Game 4. Gibson is getting lit up this month.

  60. Bottom of the 8th, Bohm singles. In the old days, Segura bunts him to 2nd. Marsh singles, Phils have a run.

  61. Thomson once again showing that he doesn’t really get the concept of a multi-inning reliever.

    Let. Eflin. PITCH. It’s ridiculous that he doesn’t trust a career STARTING PITCHER to be able to go out for another inning.

    1. I get what you say and would let him have one more inning….15/20 pitches
      But…………playing the Devil’s Advocate……Eflin was shut down for awhile, 11 weeks before coming back 12 days ago, so maybe Thomson felt he would be ineffective because he was not stretched to the max.

      1. Being cautious about his health is fine. But he pitched two innings in his rehab appearance… and 1.2 in his previous appearance…

        So he’s doing the opposite of stretching him out. Which is ridiculous, because Eflin’s looked great.

  62. Another game we should have won. Robertson blows the save. 2 outs, BB, 2B, Intentional BB, wild pitch, just awful. No excuse, a W we let get away. It should never have gotten to Belatti.

    1. matt13….there seem to have been just too many of those games this year.

      The inconsistency this team goes through, and lack of confidence in putting a game like that away is utterly frustrating.

  63. Say what you all want about Gibson (and I’m the first), but if Marsh catches that fly ball in the first inning ( as he should have), no runs score and just maybe Gibson gets on a roll.

    1. Ciada, you are spot on, Marsh should be prepared, if he needs sunglasses they should be on his head. He catches that ball we win in 9. In addition terrible pitch by Robertson. Told my wife, hope he doesn’t bounce a curve!

  64. Sure, ciada, but then we take the lead, he loses it, we take the lead again, he loses it. At what point can we expect more from our Pitching? Romus, you are exactly right. How many games should have been put away with a consistent BP? Enough so this Playoff drama would already be over.

    1. Agree Matt. There have been several. I saw last week that the Mets were 80 and 0 when leading going to the 9th. Where would the Phillies be if that was the case for them. Romus knows all of these calculations.
      I hope they make it but 5-5 is not assured for these guys. They needed better than 3-3 when they had the first 2 games in hand.

Comments are closed.