This is the Phuture Phillies forum for the discussion of prospects eligible for the amateur draft that is scheduled to be held in two months (July 17-19, 2022). You can place videos, scouting reports, or just comments here. These discussions will be added to the pull-down menu above.
Feel free to discuss the 2022 international signing period, too. It began on January 15th.
This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and international signing period. This is NOT a place for you to complain about past picks/signings or the organization’s past/current draft and international philosophies.
26 thoughts on “2022 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – May 2, 2022”
Thanks so much for opening this thread, Jim. Love the draft talk.
Now that we’re just 10 weeks away from the draft, we have a better idea of what kids may be most in play for the Phillies at 1-17. Brian Barber & Dave Dombrowski definitely have histories of hunting high ceiling prospects. Here’s a list of some.
It would be great if Kevin Parada or Jacob Berry slid to the middle of the first round because of their limitations defensively. They’re likely future 1Bmen/DH’s, but their bats are too electric to reasonably believe the Phillies could see either of them @ 1-17.
* Jordan Beck … is one of the highest ceiling guys who could be in play for the Phils. The 6’3″/225 RHH OFer from Univ of Tennessee has a loud bat, a strong arm, and looks like a future MLB RFer. The Alabama native has broken out in 2022. He’s at .320/.388/.589, and launced 11 bombs in 175 ABs playing in the best conference in America (SEC). Beck’s track record isn’t as long as Parada, Berry, and some of the other college dudes who will go earlier than 1-17.
* Dylan Beavers … is the another college hitter who could be in play. The 6’4″/205 LHH OFer looks a lot like Christian Yelich in the box. And he put up Yelich-like numbers (.303/.401/.630 18 HRs) in his soph season. He played for the Collegiate National Team last summer. Beavers has just begun heating up this season. He’s slashing .293/.434/.652, has been good for 16 homers in 164 ABs, and BB’d (41) as many times as he has K’d (41). To add to his profile, Beavers is young for the college class. He won’t turn 21 until after the draft.
* Jud Fabian … may also be under consideration. The 6’2″/195 RHH CFer from Florida was picked in the second round (Red Sox) last year, but went unsigned. He’s a plus defender with plus power. Fabian has been mostly a three outcome prospect, but this season, he’s really cut down the strike outs. He’s at .267/.446/.647, 16 HRs, and has more BB’s (45) than K’s (38). Scouts are impressed with the fact that Fabian has cut his K-rate neraly in half since last season.
Druw Jones, Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, and Jackson Holliday will be gone early.
* GAVIN TURLEY … is a tooled up RHH OFer from Arizona. He’s got great size (6’2″/195), plus bat speed, plus arm, plus power, and abv avg wheels. He’s shown a better feel for contact this season, and is climbing draft boards.
* ROMAN ANTHONY … is another kid quickly ascending draft boards. He’s a long and lean (6’3″/195) LHH OFer from Stoneman Douglas HS in south FL. Anthony won’t turn 18 until shortly before the draft, but he’s already got huge power. He’s probably a future RFer where his plus arm will play up.
* Tucker Toman … is a switch-hitting 3Bman from South Carolina with power to launch bombs from either side of the plate. The 6’1″/195 prepster has been a showcase star for a couple of summers.
* Cam Collier … is probably the youngest prospect in the draft class, yet has the body of a 4th year college player. The 6’2″/210 LHH 3Bman won’t turn 18 until Thanksgiving week. Collier has taken the Bryce Harper route to the draft. He was originally a part of the 2023 class, but got his GED, and left for JUCO as a HS junior. He’s got a thick lower half, has strong hands, and excellent feel for bat-to-ball contact. This season, the Georgia native has been very good at Chipola Junior College (.333/.431/.525). The icing on Collier’s prospect status is his blood lines: his dad Lou is a former Phillie.
This is where a big time prospect could fall to the Phillies because so many of the game’s top arms are shelved with injuries.
* Connor Prielipp … most likely would have been a top 5 pick if he hadn’t blown out his arm last season. The 6’3″/205 LHP is a former day three draft pick as a Wisconsin prepster. Instead of signing with the Red Sox, he chose to throw for the Univ of Alabama. The southpaw throws a well commanded 92-96 MPH FB, a devastating, high spinning SL (up to 90 MPH), and a not too shabby CH. He blew out his elbow early in 2021, and won’t throw for the Crimson Tide in 2022. However, he’s aiming to get back on a mound (probably in the Cape Cod League) before July’s draft. There’s still plenty of tread on Prielipp’s tire. In college, he’s totaled just 28 IP, 13 H, 7 BB, 47 K, 0.96 ERA in two seasons at Alabama.
* Reggie Crawford … is another LHP who had top 10 buzz before blowing out his elbow last fall. The 6’4″/230 Landsdale, PA native is probably the draft’s top two way performer. He’s played lots of 1B (.892 OPS w/13 HRs in 2021), but it’s on the bump where Crawford is special. He’s got lightning in his left arm. He throws 100 MPH, and pairs that up with a plus SL, and a CB. He’s been used primarily out of the pen until this season, and was scheduled to be the Huskies Friday night starter before TJ. Scouts did, however, get good looks at Crawford when he started for the US College National Team last summer. He’s another kid w/o a lot of innings on his arm. Last season, he went 7.2 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 17 K. Crawford is no stranger to the draft. The Royals picked him on day three as a prepster.
* Peyton Pallette … hit the operating table for his TJ surgery in January of this year. When healthy, Pallette is one of the top arms in the SEC/all of college baseball. The Arkansas RHP gets a lot of Walker Buehler comps for his size (6’1″/185), his arm talent (mid-to-upper 90s FB, uber high spin rate breaker), and history of arm injury (TJ before throwing a pitch as a pro). As a sophomore, Pallete led the Razorbacks by going 56 IP, 51 H, 20 BB, 67 K.
* Hunter Barco … is the latest college pitcher to suffer an injry. The Florida southpaw was having a stellar season (50.1 IP, 34 H, 11 BB, 69 K) before being shut down two weeks ago w/elbow discomfort. I’m no doctor, but that sounds like a kid with a strong possibility of seeing TJ. It’s a shame because Barco has great size (6’4″/220), excellent stuff (92-96 MPH FB & one of the nastiest SLs in America), and a top notch pedigree (one of the highest ranked prep pitchers for the 2019 draft & 24th round pick of the NYM’s).
* Gabriel Hughes … is the top uninjured college arm (fingers crossed for continued health). The Gonzaga “ace” is a Bulldog (pun intended). He’s 6’5″/225, features a mid 90s FB (T 97), hard biting SL (gets lots os swing and misses with), and a CH. He’s also young for the college class (won’t turn 21 until a month after the draft). This season, Hughes has tallied 70.1 IP, 50 H, 25 BB, 108 K.
It’s very rare for an organization to use their only first round pick on a HS arm three consecutive years. In fact, it’s only happened twice during the 22nd century. Young pitchers are the most difficult demographic to scout/project. They’re also the most likely demographic to see their careers interrupted/derailed by injury. However, Brian Barber and Dave Dombrowski may have such an overwhelming menu of prep pitchers in front of them, they might just have to order another one at 1-17 again.
* Dylan Lesko … is one of the most highly touted HS arms to enter the draft in a long time. Normally, there would be no chance he would be available for Barber … but … the Georgia RHP has also just gone down with TJ. Because the injury is so new (surgery was performed last week), there will be little knowledge of how his recovery is progressing. Lesko is 6’3″/195, runs his FB up to 98 MPH, and has maybe the best CH ever by a HS pitcher entering the draft (he gets some 80 grades). Lesko was named the HS Player of the Year in Georgia as a junior (2021), and K’d 112 in 60 IP. Even with the injury, Lesko will hold leverage when it comes to a signing bonus because he has a Vanderbilt committment.
* Brandon Barreira … is a smaller LHP with a big arm. The little lefty from Florida gets Ron Guidry comps for his size (5’11″/175), and electric FB (has hit 99 this spring). Barreira adds a plus two-plane SL, and an abv avg CH. The kid has let scouts know he plans to shut things down early this season (like this week) to work on conditioning/prepare for the draft.
* Jackson Ferris … is a good looking LHP from IMG Academy in Florida. The 6’3″/200 southpaw comes equipped with three above-to-plus offerings: 93-96 MPH FB, CH, and (Kershaw-esque) CB. He tunnels all three really well. In addition, the poise stands out whenever Ferris takes the mound. He’s not just a kid throwing. He’s a young man with a plan on the mound. He operates like a surgeon.
* Brock Porter … has the profile Brian Barber has seeked the past two summers. He’s tall, thin, has a big arm, and the secondaries to match. The 6’4″/210 RHP throws a 93-97 MPH FB, CB, SL, & CH. The breaking balls get abv avg-to-plus grades. The CH gets some plus plus grades. Porter plays for one of the top teams in the country (St Maty’s Prep in Michigan). What to like: mix of current stuff & projection. The one knock: Porter is an older prepster. He’ll turn 19 before the draft.
* Noah Schultz … is a fun prospect. When it comes to projection/ceiling, he’s cornered the market. Schultz is a 6’9″/225 lefty with lots of funk. The Illinois southpaw features a low 90s FB, high spin (3,000+ RPM) slurve, and CH all from a low slot. He’s been very successful facing top hitters on the sowcase circuit.
THE WILD CARD
* Kumar Rocker … is back in the draft this summer after getting picked @ 1-10 by the NYMs last year. Rocker walked away from the Mets after NY low balled the former Vanderbilt RHP because they were concerned with something they saw on an MRI. Rocker has had no surgery since last summer, and claims he’s 100% healthy. At Vandy, Rocker had wild fluctuations in velo. Some outtings, he would sit upper 90s, while in others, he would hit mostly low 90s. The SL was never a question. That pitch may have racked up more swing-and-misses than any other offering by any other pitcher in the country. His results at Vanderbilt in 2021 were impressive: 122 IP, 75 H, 39 BB, 179 K. He was also the author on a no-hitter in school. Rocker is expected to throw for scouts (probably in an independent league) this spring. The fact that Rocker is represented by Scott Boras is probably a good sign for the Phillies. And the fact that young Kumar probably wants to make the Mets pay for low balling him ain’t a bad thing for a possible Phillies landing either.
BTW … Kumar’s dad Tracy Rocker is an Eagles’ DL coach so there’s that too.
If I was placing odds on Brian Barber/Dave Dombrowski’s first round pick, I’d rank em like this (from most likely)⤵
1️⃣ Cam Collier
2️⃣ Jackson Ferris
3️⃣ Connor Prielipp
4️⃣ Kumar Rocker
5️⃣ Dylan Lesko
6️⃣ Brock Porter
7️⃣ Dylan Beavers
8️⃣ Reggie Crawford
9️⃣ Roman Anthony
🔟 Tucker Toman
Cam collier is interesting…I think v1 had first mentioned him a few weeks back.
He would be someone that could be a fast riser in the system
I seen what the Cardinals did with Nolan Gorman and he is getting closer and ready to explode onto the majors.
Collier could fit that mold.
Parada would be a huge get. He reminds me of Realmuto. Had a 6.72 60-yard dash at the PerfectGame National Showcase in 2019.
Keith Law’s write-up a month ago said: “He’s probably the second-best college player in the class after Lee, and would go in the top 10 if the draft were held today, with a chance to get into the top five.”
Baseball America around the same time said: “Parada is a good athlete. That plays well behind the plate in his blocking and receiving. His throwing is what gives scouts the most pause in their evaluation.”
On an unrelated draft note, how hilarious is it that the Mets traded their 2020 first round pick, elite defensive centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (.382/.482/.603 so far this year), for two months of Javy Baez in a year in which they finished 77-85? Funny stuff!
With Cohen and his $15B nest…….trading prospects for known established MLB players will not be a pause for him.
He will just buy his way to better players ….and gladly incur the penalty tax.
MLB will need to rein him in somehow.
Anybody know if Elon Musk is a Phillies’ fan?
It’s official. As I speculated (above), Hunter Barco will have TJ.
Would the Phillies look to draft any of these TJ recovering pitchers (at some sort of discount) at 1-17? A few of the names I mentioned (above) would never have been available for the Phils if not for their misfortune/arm injury. Dave Dombrowski/Brian Barber/David Crowson love high ceiling kids.
Rizzo and the Nats like to do that kind of thing. ie Luzardo, Giolito .
Not sure Dave D ever did it while with the Sox or Tigers.
Agreed. Rizzo is a guy who drafts for upside (loves power arms), and has a track record of taking guys with TJ histories. The Nats are probably picking too high (1-5) in round one to take a TJ survivor this summer, but I’d expect them to probably be all in on a kid like Reggie Crawford in the second round if he’s still available.
The Phillies are in a different situation. At 1-17, the healthy higher ceiling prospects are probably all already gone. They have no second round selection. Their best shot at a guy with a chance to be a superstar is to take one of the injured pitchers at 1-17. I listed Dylan Lesko at #5 on my most likely pick only because I’m not too sure he’ll last that long despite the recent TJ surgery. But if he’s still available, I bet the Dombrowski/Barber/Crowson team would jump on him. I love Connor Prielipp. A 21 YO TOR type of LHP would fit in perfectly with Abel and Painter.
Yes…..wish the Phillies FO would do just that…..Lesko, Prielipp and Barco would be selections that the team can dream upon in 2023 or 2024..
For those “glass half full” kinda’ fans … the Phils are now in the 1-12 position for the 2023 draft, and would have a %1.10 chance of winning the draft lottery. Top two prospects for next year’s draft are a couple of pretty awesome college hitters:
✳ Dylan Crews #Lose4Crews
✳ Jacob Gonzalez #GooGoo4Gonzo
1. Druw Jones
2. Cam Collier
6. Jackson Holliday
7. Kevin Parada
15. Connor Prielipp
16. Dylan Lesko
17. Cole Young
18. Brock Porter
23. Jacob Berry
28. Jackson Ferris
30. Tucker Toman
39. Jud Fabian
46. Kumar Rocker
49. Reggie Crawford
65. Hunter Barco
20. Brandon Barriera
56. Dylan Beavers
My…how Fabian has fallen down the charts, along with Rocker.
This time last year they were on the Billboard Top Ten.
KLaw always has some interesting mock ups.
Yeah, Romus. Fabian was ranked pretty high (top 10-ish) at the start of last season. But the high K #s sent him down most rankings as the season went on. He ended up getting drafted @ 2-40 by Boston.
This year, he’s cut his K-rate from 28% to 18%.
BTW … Fabian is more highly thought of by other draft bloggers. Kiley McDaniel has him at #20. And Mason McRae has always been high on him.
Some other notable differences between Law and McDaniel⤵
CAM COLLIER .➡ Law #2 … McDaniel # 12
DYLAN BEAVERS ➡ Law #56 … McDaniel #14
JACOB BERRY ➡ Law # 23 … McDaniel # 7
JACKSON FERRIS ➡ Law #28 … McDaniel #18
STERLIN THOMPSON (Fabian’s teammate) ➡ Law #10 … McDaniel #27
Hinkie……KLaw seems to always have some notable differences than most.
Beavers is such a wide disparity.
That is one, that down the road, I will like to see who projected the closest net outcome.
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