This is the courtesy thread for comments and discussion about the Phillies and other BASEBALL topics.
New CBA Breakdown
Duration/Expiration: Five years (2022-2026) until December 1, 2026.
- 2022 season starts April 7th
- 162 game season extended by three days
- 9-inning doubleheaders to make up games
- Players to begin reporting to ST on March 11th
- Grapefruit/Cactus League games start March 17th or 18th
- Playoffs expanded to 12 teams
- 3 division winners and 3 wild cards
- Top 2 division winners get a bye
- Third division winner is the top seed, records determine remaining seeds
- Top two seeds host best-of-three series
- Winners go on to play Division Series as before
- No more tiebreaker games at the end of the regular season
- Tiebreaker system will be determined to settle ties
- The universal DH has arrived
- Each club gets to work their own sponsorship deals for patches on sleeves and decals on helmets. Players get 50% of the first $0 dollars of revenue and none thereafter.
- Minimum salary increase from $570,500 to
- $700 K in 2022
- $720K in 2023
- $740K in 2024
- $760K in 2025
- $780K in 2026
- The minor league minimum salary for players signing their second major league contract will increase from $93K in 2021 to
- $114,100 in 2022
- $117,400 in 2023
- $120,600 in 2024
- $123,900 in 2025
- $127,100 in 2026
- Increase in the “Salary Cap”
- $230M in 2022
- $233M in 2023
- $237M in 2024
- $241M in 2025
- $244M in 2026
- Penalties for exceeding the cap in consecutive years remain the same
- 20% first time exceeded
- 30% second time
- 50% third, fourth, fifth, …
- Surcharge tax system remains in place with a new “Steve Cohen Provision”
- Exceeding first level by $20 million: 32%, 42% (2nd consecutive year), 62% (3rd or more consecutive year)
- Exceeding second level by $40 million: 62.5%, 75% (2nd consecutive year), 95% (3rd or more consecutive year)
- ***NEW*** Exceeding new third level by $60 million: 80%, 90% (2nd consecutive year), 105% (3rd or more consecutive year)
- PreSalary Arbitration Bonus Pool to reward players who perform at high levels before reaching arbitration.
- All clubs pay into the $50M pool
- Pool will be distributed to the top 100 players based on awards and statistical merit
- The system to determine the payout will be determined by MLBPA and MLB
- Player wins MVP or Cy Young Award: $2.5 million
- Runners-up (2nd place in voting): $1.75 million
- Runners-up (3rd place in voting): $1.5 million
- Runners-up (4th and 5th place in voting): $1 million
- Rookie Of The Year winners: $750,000
- ROY runners-up (2nd place in voting): $500,000
- Player can only receive one award (the higher value)
- Money not claimed by awards would be distributed by the agreed upon system
- Additional Service Time for First and Second place ROY finishers
- Regardless of actual service time earned during the season, these two players will receive a full year of service time
- Salary Arbitration Salaries Guaranteed
- Salary arbitration eligible players who settle on a salary without going to an arbitration hearing will be eligible to receive full season termination pay, even if released prior to the start of the regular season
- International Draft
- If players association accepts by July 25, 2022, the league will eliminate the qualifying offer system that is used for direct draft-pick compensation for free agents
- 20 rounds
- Signing bonuses guaranteed
- Teams selecting players from emerging countries (less than 0.5% of international signings the previous 3 seasons) will get additional picks
- Draft picks can be traded
- Teams losing a free agent would still receive draft pick compensation, but it will be based on revenue sharing status and whether a club exceeded the salary cap.
- a FA signs for $25M guaranteed or $18M AAV: third round pick for revenue sharing payee
- $55M guaranteed or $23M AAV: Comp B pick for revenue sharing payee, third round pick for non-payee or team that did not pay luxury tax
- $100M guaranteed or $30M AAV: Comp A pick for revenue sharing payee, Comp B pick for non-payee or team that did not pay luxury tax, third round pick for team paying revenue sharing
- $150M guaranteed or $40M AAV: Comp A pick and third round pick for revenue sharing payee, Comp A pick for non-payee or team that did not pay luxury tax, Comp B pick for team paying revenue sharing
- New Draft Lottery Selection System
- The top 6 picks will be determined by a weighted lottery
- A team’s odds will be determined by the reverse order of their winning percentages
- All 18 teams who miss the playoffs are in the lottery
- Three worst each have a 16.5% chance to win #1 pick
- Fourth 13.25%
- Fifth 10.00%
- Sixth 7.5%
- Seventh 5.5%
- Eighth 3.9%
- Ninth 2.7%
- Tenth 1.8%
- Eleventh 1.4%
- Twelfth 1.1%
- Thirteenth 0.9%
- Fourteenth 0.76%
- Fifteenth 0.62%
- Sixteenth 0.48%
- Seventeenth 0.36%
- Eighteenth 0.23%
- Revenue sharing payees would be ineligible to receive lottery selections in three consecutive years
- Non-paying would be ineligible to receive lottery selections in two consecutive years
- There will be an annual pre-Draft Combine consisting of on-field assessments, strength and conditioning drills, medical assessments, drug testing, individual Club meetings, and player education sessions
- “Kumar Rocker Rule”: If a player submits to a pre-draft physical at the Combine and is drafted, the selecting Club must offer the player 75% of the player’s Slot Value or the player will become a free agent if the Club fails to sign the player.
- Players who are drafted after the 10th Round and who do not sign by the Signing Deadline may go to junior college under new Draft-and-Follow framework
- Options per season limited to five
- Draft pick incentives for clubs that promote top prospects and avoid service time manipulation
- Shortened period for commissioner to implement onfield changes
- Former one-year period shortened to 45-days
- New Joint Competition Committee
- The league and union will create a new Joint Competition Committee that will be comprised of four active players, six members appointed by the league, and one umpire. Beginning in 2023 they will be tasked with rules around a pitch clock, enlarged base sizes, defensive shifts, and eventually an automatic strike zone
- Update to the Drug Policy
- Increase in the number of in-season urine tests for PEDs and drugs of abuse
- Adjustments in the scheduling of the tests so that they aren’t predictable
- The Program will utilize dried blood spot testing for hGH testing (a new technology)
- Update of the joint treatment program for alcohol-related and off-field violent conduct to include marijuana-related conduct
- $500 Million Grievance Dropped
- This was the law suit over the length of the 2020 season
- The players did NOT drop the grievance against the four teams they accused of misusing revenue-sharing funds (Pirates, Rays, A’s, Marlins)
- Increase in number of international exhibitions
- MLBPA agreed to exhibition tours to Mexico, Asia, Puerto Rico, London, Paris, Dominican Republic
- Other changes
- New policy for the players governing commercial arrangements with sports betting companies
- Improved benefits to former players
- the teams will play a more balanced regular schedule with all teams playing the other 29 at least one series (coming in 2023)
- More special games such as the Little League Classic, and Field Of Dreams games
- Parties have agreed to continue the 26-man roster limit (and 28 in September) with a limit of 13 pitchers on the roster (and 14 in September)
- Office of the Commissioner shall have the flexibility to set the Major League Trade Deadline on a date between July 28th and August 3rd
I don’t know if you are still out there Rocky, but I’ve lifted all bans. Feel free to join the conversations. I only ask that you limit yourself to one name and one email address. That is site policy and not directed at you or any individual. Thank you
Rosters and Stuff
- organization’s rosters (3/6/22)
- organization’s injury list (3/6/22)
- organization’s Rule 5 eligibility (3/6/22) (includes player info, assignments, …)
- December 1, 2021: CBA expired
- December 2, 2021: Owners locked out players
- March 2, 2022: Minor League pitchers and catchers reported for spring training
- March 5, 2022: Minor League pitchers and catchers first workout
- March 6, 2022: Minor League position players reported for spring training
- March 7, 2022: Minor League spring training full squad workouts
- March 10, 2022: Lockout officially ended
- March 11, 2022: MLB players began arriving for spring training
- March 14, 2022: First full squad workout
- March 17, 2022: First minor league spring training game against Blue Jays (games v. other clubs or intrasquad games everyday through April 2, 2022)
- March 19, 2022: First Phillies spring training game against Toronto (eleven home games through April 5, 2022, only off day is March 29th)
- April 1, 2022: Lehigh Valley breaks camp
- April 2, 2022: Reading, Jersey Shore, and Clearwater break camp
- April 5, 2022: Lehigh Valley season opener at home v. Columbus
- April 7, 2022: Phillies final spring training game (at Tropicana Field)
- April 8, 2022: Phillies season opener at home v. Oakland
- April 8, 2022: Clearwater season opener at home v. Fort Myers
- April 8, 2022: Jersey Shore season opener at home v. Aberdeen
- April 8, 2022: Reading season opener at home v. Somerset
Transactions: (These are all the reported transactions since December 1, 2021. Several posted after the agreement was reached. Transactions previously reported are in bold text. Still waiting for international free agent signings to post in transactions reports)
3/12/2022 – Phillies invited non-roster LHP Braeden Ogle to spring training
3/12/2022 – Phillies invited non-roster 1B Darick Hall to spring training
3/12/2022 – Phillies invited non-roster OF Johan Rojas to spring training
3/12/2022 – Phillies invited non-roster RHP Nick Duron to spring training
3/12/2022 – Phillies invited non-roster C Logan O’Hoppe to spring training
3/12/2022 – Phillies invited non-roster SS Scott Kingery to spring training
3/12/2022 – Phillies invited non-roster SS Bryson Stott to spring training
3/12/2022 – C Edgar Cabral assigned to Lehigh Valley
3/11/2022 – RF John Andreoli assigned to Lehigh Valley
3/11/2022 – SS Cash Case assigned to Lehigh Valley
3/10/2022 – Phillies signed FA SS Cash Case to an MiLB contract
3/10/2022 – Phillies signed FA RF John Andreoli to an MiLB contract
3/09/2022 – Phillies signed FA C Edgar Cabral to an MiLB contract w/ST invite
3/04/2022 – SS Drew Maggi assigned to Lehigh Valley
3/04/2022 – Phillies signed FA SS Drew Maggi to an MiLB contract
3/04/2022 – Phillies signed FA RHP James Marvel to an MiLB contract
3/04/2022 – RHP James Marvel assigned to Lehigh Valley
3/03/2022 – RF Justin Williams assigned to Lehigh Valley
3/03/2022 – Phillies signed FA RF Justin Williams to an MiLB contract w/ST invite
3/02/2022 – 1B Joe Genord assigned to Clearwater
3/02/2022 – Phillies signed FA 1B Joe Genord to an MiLB contract
3/01/2022 – C Karl Ellison assigned to Jersey Shore
3/01/2022 – Phillies signed FA C Karl Ellison to an MiLB contract
2/24/2022 – 3B Luke Miller retired
2/16/2022 – SS Nate Fassnacht retired
2/14/2022 – 1B Josh Ockimey assigned to Reading
2/14/2022 – Phillies signed FA 1B Josh Ockimey to an MiLB contract
2/01/2022 – 3B Yairo Munoz assigned to Lehigh Valley
2/01/2022 – Phillies signed FA 3B Yairo Munoz to an MiLB contract
1/09/2022 – RHP Nick Duron assigned to Reading
1/09/2022 – Phillies signed FA RHP Nick Duron to an MiLB contract
1/07/2022 – FCL Phillies released Hsu Chi-Ling
1/05/2022 – SS Kevin Vicuna assigned to Reading
1/05/2022 – 1B Aldrem Corredor assigned to Reading
1/04/2022 – Phillies signed FA SS Kevin Vicuna to an MiLB contract
1/04/2022 – Phillies signed FA 1B Aldrem Corredor to an MiLB contract
12/15/2021 – RHP Maxwel Hernandez assigned to DSL White
12/10/2021 – RHP Tyler Cyr assigned to Lehigh Valley
12/10/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Tyler Cyr to an MiLB contract w/ST invite
12/10/2021 – RHP Joe Gatto assigned to Lehigh Valley
12/10/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Joe Gatto to an MiLB contract w/ST invite
12/10/2021 – 2B Wendell Rijo assigned to Reading
12/10/2021 – Phillies signed FA 2B Wendell Rijo to an MiLB contract w/ST invite
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released RHP Leonel Aponte
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released LHP Riley Wilson
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released CF Junior Ortega
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released RHP Hsin-Chieh Lin
12/10/2021 – FCL Phillies released RHP Wilson Gherbaz
12/09/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Jake Newberry to an MiLB contract w/ST invite
12/09/2021 – RHP Jake Newberry assigned to Lehigh Valley
12/08/2021 – SS Ali Castillo assigned to Reading
12/08/2021 – Phillies signed FA INF Ali Castillo to an MiLB contract
12/08/2021 – Lehigh Valley claimed RHP Matt Seelinger (SF) in Rule 5 draft from Richmond
12/05/2021 – RHP Eliecer Bata assigned to DSL Red
12/05/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Eliecer Bata to an MiLB contract
12/05/2021 – OF Dariam Gutierrez assigned to DSL White
12/05/2021 – Phillies signed FA OF Dariam Gutierrez to an MiLB contract
12/01/2021 – RHP Cam Bedrosian assigned to Lehigh Valley
12/01/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Cam Bedrosian to an MiLB contract w/ST invite
12/01/2021 – LHP Kyle Dohy assigned to Lehigh Valley
12/01/2021 – Phillies signed FA LHP Kyle Dohy to an MiLB contract w/ST invite
12/01/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Corey Knebel
12/01/2021 – Phillies signed FA 3B Johan Camargo
12/01/2021 – Phillies designated RHP Adonis Medina for assignment
10/26/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Maxwel Hernandez to an MiLB contract
649 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of March 13, 2022”
Great info Jim on CBA. This will be very interesting to read. Thanks for all of your work.
CBS has Phillies 14 in power ranking. Pushing for Kris Bryant. Say Make it Happen. Bryant has been Jim’s guy for quite some time.
Super stoked we get Herrera back. Nothing like having a woman beating CF who’s a streaky player with a very low baseball IQ. Wünderbar!
Happy Pi day everyone. Thanks Jim for putting all this work in. I’m very happy to be back to 9 inning doubleheaders and normal extra inning rules. I remain hopeful the Phils will sign one of the big bats for LF although my hope remains that we sign Bryant and Conforto and rotate through the DH. Odubel in CF isn’t great but I actually thought it might happen due to the scarcity of CFs and the low price tag for him. I never wanted Kiermier, he can’t hit and is expensive. Familia and Hand are decent additions and I wonder if they’re done now with the pen additions. They still need a 6th SP also with unclear Eflin and Suarez status plus Wheeler’s possible shoulder issue. The big LF bat is coming, we just don’t know which one.
Are there any free agent candidates for #6 starting pitcher that you are eyeing for the Phillies?
According to Jon Heyman (FWIW), Trevor Story turned down a 9 figure offer from a team requesting him to switch positions (SS to CF?)…he wants to play SS pretty bad, I guess.
Wonder if the Astros will go for him…since Correa is history.
He will come a lot less expensive then Correa would have cost them.
International Draft……..If players association accepts by July 25, 2022, the league will eliminate the qualifying offer system that is used for direct draft-pick compensation for free agents.
That is a win for the free agent players and should increase their offers.
However, if The MLBPA rejects that….the rank and file will certainly take issue with their union council.
Then there is the Latin MLB players……will they agree.
IMO…as I have said earlier…MLBPA is outside their charter and territory on this issue..
Looks like Freeman is not going to remain a Brave. Reports are that Braves have traded for Olson from A’s.
Gave up their #1,3,5, and 15th ranked prospects according to KLaw’s rankings.
And Yankees have cooled off on Freeman as well…..if Freddie is out of the division…..Phillies and Mets will be that much happier.
Looks like the Dodgers for Freddie
That sounds like a haul for Olson. He’s good but … that’s steep. 4 top 15 prospects.
I wouldn’t count freeman off the braves yet. They were at 160 million last I heard, they should easily afford freeman. Will see
A’s are about to have a Billy Beane special. Let the fire sale begin. To me, Chapman to Phillies is going to heat up now. Here’s hoping Beane will take Didi as a stop gap for half his contract, lower the prospect cost. It’s going to hurt if that trade is an indication.
I expect that the Braves would have only made that deal knowing that Freeman was moving on. That’s a lot of system talent to give up for one of them to become the DH.
This package is exactly how massive as I would expect for a Chapman deal too. To put that package in context, I don’t think that a package of Abel, Stott, Rojas and O’Hoppe match the Braves offer.
V1, I agree that this sets very high bar.
However, I’d say those 4 are surely comparable. And I’d say it’s TOO MUCH. I’m hearing many say the A’s crushed that deal and I agree. DD better not get fleeced like that.
The A’s just got a helluva haul for trading Olson to the Braves. I guess that means Freeman is gone..
A’s asking for one of Abel, Painter, or Stott. Phillies saying NO. Most think too much for Chapman. Good for DD.
Don…….I would hold my ground as well.
I thought O’Hoppe or Marchan would also be asked for by the As …not now…Shea Langeliers from the Braves is going there in that Olson trade.
I still think Bohm, Haseley and Erik Miller will get Chapman.
If the Olson trade is any gauge, your package likely will not be enough to get him. Add Painter to that threesome and now you’re getting warm.
I don’t understand why people think Chapman package will be less than the Olsen package?
Also I don’t understand why people think that Haseley, Bohm or Erik Miller have any trade value.
Haseley’s trade value is certainly nil at this point. But you’re crazy if you think other teams aren’t interested in Bohm or Miller.
Miller isn’t a blue chip prospect, but he’s definitely someone a team would target as a throw-in.
As for Bohm, he’s literally 25 and experiencing adversity for the first time. Teams aren’t going to completely throw out his entire body of work just because he had a sophomore slump. Especially since he turned it around offensively (he hit .293 with a 104 wRC+ from June through the end of the season). Any team that sees something they think can fix with him will be salivating at the thought of getting a young, potential core player for cheap. His overall trade value is down from the previous two years for sure, but it’s not like other teams just don’t want him.
Miller has some value for sure. But he is a “C” piece. He has a significant injury history and also control problems. He is a throw in.
Bohm also has some value but far less than what people on a Phillies prospect blog think. For starters, he doesn’t have a clear defensive position, which is fine if he is 18 and a great athlete. But not great as a 25yo with below average athleticism. There is also a lot of open questions about his hit tool. He struggles mightily against anything 95+. Everyone knows this. He also has shown very little power, which is a real problem for a 3B or 1B. would teams take him as a turn around candidate, sure. But you are not getting much in return. Certainly he is not the headliner for the best defensive 3B in all baseball.
Dan K…what yourself and other fail to take into account with Chapman….besides being a Boras client, this is his 29age season and can be a very fruitful arb year ($10/11M)….and everyone knows the As situation when it comes to salaries. The As will unload him now or in July.
As far as the return value on Olson from the Braves…Pache is Victor Robles.2..great defender , no bat….the pitchers are TINSTAAPP at this point with more minor league experienced needed….Langeliers is the true prospect that could make an impact, behind the plate for sure, and perhaps at the plate.
And Haseley…..he has been in the show, whatever his personal issues are may be corrected and behind him….IMO there will be a GM who will try to get the most out of him…he has the talent, his minor league metrics and his first year in the majors proved that out.
I didn’t actually say anything regarding Chapman or his cost to acquire, haha. Was just commenting that Miller and Bohm certainly have greater-than-zero trade value.
As for Haseley, I’m sure every team in the league would take him as a reclamation project. He’s talented and young and cheap… but they’re not gonna give the Phillies anything for him. Why? Well… he won’t play for the Phils. It’s kinda like the Ben Simmons dilemma, except Simmons’ ceiling was WAY higher (and there’s no cap implications to force a team’s hand on trades). So in regards to what we could get in return for Haseley, it’s either going to be a swap of reclamation projects or his value in a trade will be akin to a low minors lottery ticket.
Personally, I really hope he either has a change of heart and plays here or he gets a shot somewhere else. He seems like a nice kid that just played in front of the wrong bleacher section.
i want Chapman like most people do…but at the right price.
Now some have wanted to compare Olson and Chapman…they were two different player in 2021…at the plate
Major move by the Braves, and this wasn’t cheap, and I would have kept my prospects and given a 6th year to Freddie Freeman. Who, IMO, is one of the classiest players in the league. But, if they were sure they were losing him, Olsen is a great get by them. Very similar to our getting Doobie back! Sorry for the sarcasm, I am pretty displeased with our efforts so far, and giving up any of our top prospects for Chapman will put me in a worse mood.
A’s are asking for Abel, Painter or Stott for Chapman. Phils refuse to include these. Most think too steep of a price.
It is, because they obviously need a Bohm in the return.
Bohm,Painter, Miller … should get it done. It hurts, but Chapman is a great player. I make them take Didi too, at half his salary to free up payroll for another piece.
Chapman is NOT a great player. He’s a great glove with some power. No way they include Stott, Abel, Painter or O’Hoppe in this deal or probably any deal. As may take a Bohm, Rojas, Miller package though.
Chapman is a perennial gold glove 3rd baseman, who hits for power, takes a lot of walks and is just now entering his prime years and has already had 2 seasons of 6+ WAR. He is a great player.
Moot point, but I disagree to an extent. Great fielder who does walk a lot, but doesn’t hit for average and OBP has been sub .315 for the last 2 seasons. I’d say this is a very good, but not great player.
I trade either Abel or Painter (Jim wouldn’t) along with Bohm and Miller. Stott is virtually untouchable. Chapman is worth it IMO.
Mark – I’m usually much more conservative than you on trades, but I think I agree. You get Chapman here and he could easily have a few MVP-type seasons. It would be painful, but I would definitely consider doing that trade. You still have most of your best young prospects.
MVP?? He’s a 220 hitter. He’s Pedro Feliz with more power.
Murray…agree…his glove is outstanding, his bat as a TTO guy can be streaky.
2020 Ks in 2021…..are you kidding me!
50%-TTO player…that is Rhys Hoskin with a defensive glove.
An OPS+ — LEAGUE AVERAGE-100
Give me a break…..his glove and HR potential is what is desirable
I stick by my earlier comment…Bohm, Haseley and Miller for him if I were Dombrowski .
202-Ks in 2021
Add Odubel in trade please.
No on Abel, Yes on Painter… Another position player(s) outside of Stott?
Crazy Billy is selling! AND HIS PRICES ARE INSANE!!!!
With Freeman more likely going to the Dodgers, I wonder if DD is waiting to see if Bellinger gets placed on the block. A package of players NOT including Stott, O’Hoppe or Rojas might get it done. Maybe one of Abel or Painter, add Erik Miller, Casey Martin and Jhailyn Ortiz.
Still waiting on that Dombrowski magic lmao
Dude is nothing but a puppet for Middleton. Just like Klentak and Mcphail.
Signing a woman beater and two RP that essentially replaced Neris and Bradley.
Meanwhile the division got even tougher with Cruz going to Nationals amongst other signings that happened pre lockout with Mets.
Braves trade for Olson.
Until it doesn’t happen I will dream on DD swooping in and signing Freeman upon hearing the news the Braves are going with Olson
Odubel will get $1.75M for one year with $750K in incentives…can you say PEANUTS? Now THAT’S a big market club in action…hahaha!!
….although it seems to me DD could cut him loose at any time at that rate, if there’s a better option on the market later toward the deadline. Hmm…
You say this as if it were a stupid move. It’s a brilliant move. Even playing sorta crappy last year, he was a 1.8 WAR player and he could be better this year. If he plays at 1.8 WAR again, that’s an extremely friendly contract and, if he gets paid that little and doesn’t work out, it’s not a big loss. Remember, every dollar that they save on guys like Odubel is another dollar more for a free agent since the Phillies clearly will not exceed the LTT before the season starts.
How about disincentives? We might make money on this deal.
The Braves love players represented by smaller agencies. They don’t do well with bigger agencies (because they’re cheap). They employ no Boras clients (that I’m aware of), and they just lost the face of their franchise (Freddie Freeman) who uses Excel Sports Management. Olson is repped by BB Abbott/Jet Sports. You can bet Alex Anthopolis will immediately put the full court press on to get their new 1bman to sign a LTX, and Abbott will probably sell it to Olson for fear Olson will switch agencies within the next two years (before he hits free agency).
The same thing happened with Acuna and Albies. Their small time agents talked them into early waaay below market deals for fear those two players would move to a bigger agency the closer to they got to the open market.
Olson is good but he’s no Freddie. Langeliers is the prize of that deal. He’s near MLB ready and he’s going to be a solid MLB catcher for a long time. The rest of the package is unimpressive
However Cusick could end up being a big surprise. Boom or bust written all over that kid.
DMAR…….catchers can be hard to evaluate in the short-term….I always recall Blake Swihart of the Sox was the prize guy 6/7 years ago…and I tried to comp Andrew Knapp to him….both ended up falling short of the mark.
The As can wait for player development at the big league level…and that may be to Shea Langeliers benefit.
Bryant being aggressively pursued by Rockies and talks are at ownership level.
Waiting on magical Dave to do something
Just trade Bryce for a haul if you aren’t going to try to be competitive
Johnny boy doesn’t want to lose the marketing dollars
What a dopey comment. Sorry for being so blunt – but it was. Being aggressive doesn’t mean signing someone the moment some dude in Philly thinks is time to sign them. It means having a roster ready to roll on opening day. They are so far from done at this point.
Look at their trend. Reports come out that DD can’t dip into luxury tax and they are Only signing trash and bargains.
Odubel being trash and that relief help only replaced previous trash.
Furthermore, the REST of the division has gotten stronger while the Phillies have stayed the same, maybe worse.
But yes, my comment was dopey.
sorry, I’m not drinking that Dombrowski koolaid.
I’m just praying this new player development group actually develops players so we don’t have to sit here year in and year out dreaming up fantasy scenarios of trainings and signings.
First of all, this isn’t and has never been a money issue. The Phillies are always among the top 10 spenders in the big leagues and usually around 5 or 6. This isn’t about money. If you want to root for a team that always breaks the LTT, go root for them. There are about 4-5 teams that routinely do that. It won’t ever be the Phillies. The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers are teams you might enjoy.
Second, why are you ripping him for not doing enough WHEN HE’S IN THE MIDDLE OF HIS JOB? If they screw it up after the dust settles, fine. Rip him. But we all know he’s nowhere near close to being done.
Finally, we all agree the player development side needs to show improvement. Frankly, I think we are seeing this already. The drafting and player development have been much better the last few years and I expect the product will soon follow. And yes, we don’t want to see all of these guys traded. I hate when that happens too.
If you’re serious about winning, you do what it takes. He’s playing that same all talk game we used to hear from Klentak
Blah, blah, blah – HE’S NOT DONE YET! If you don’t like what he’s done when he’s finished, let us know about it (no doubt, you will).
And, by the way, if you don’t like that he hasn’t exceeded the LTT when all is said and done, criticize his boss, not DD. DD is the employee. He doesn’t make those decisions.
I don’t care that he hadn’t exceeded. I’m well aware he won’t. Until he signs someone that moves a damn needle for this team, I’ll judge.
With all due respect, people are allowed to have differing opinions than yours. You’re very snarky in your responses.
As a fan, I’m allowed my opinion, as are you. I won’t be snarky in my responses though.
I agree with catch22hman. What big name free agent has signed this week? I understand as a fandom we aren’t known for our patience but I think some is warranted. By all accounts they’re in on Bryant, Schwarber and Castellanos. Dombrowski is a big game hunter.
Sorry for the snarkiness, you’re entitled to your opinions. I just don’t feel like it’s reasonable to judge the guy on how well his off-season went until that off season is over. A LOT could happen here and much of it could be really good.
All good, catch.
I enjoy good banter
I’m quick to judge DD mainly because it just smells like off-seasons of past.
One has to believe that Dombrowski has a couple of irons in the fire. Why else would they call him Trader Dave? You know he’s itching for some action. Something big is about to happen. I can see a big signing and a big trade. He’s lining up his ducks. I just hope he doesn’t give too much of the farm away.
We are all hoping DD does not give away too much of the farm. This was my biggest concern when DD joined the team. I vociferously objected to his hiring when it occurred. But he has won me over. In his trades he has been very mature and restrained. He has shown incredible judgment thus far. I think there’s a reason for this. Unlike other situations where he was brought in, he was hired here to win AND rebuild the organization. I say this because of his and Middleton’s comments and also his moves – all of which seem to balance the present and the future, which is not easy to do. I think when he asked Middleton whether he wanted to win now or rebuild, Middleton said “yes” and DD has worked hard to achieve both objectives.
Yes. Usually waiting/haggling leads to better prices.
As I mentioned near the end of the last Open Thread, the cost for Matt Chapman probably dipped a little when the NYY’s acquired Josh Donaldson last night (one less buyer).
Take any one of those proposed LFs, Hinkie, whoever you pick, and add him to our lineup. No lead off hitter, Mr. LF, Doobie/Vierling in CF, Bryce in RF, Bohm, Didi, I think Stott is in LHV to July, Hoskins, JTR. Wheeler and Ranger behind schedule. I don’t think we are good enough to make the Playoffs, even with an expanded Pool. And, far behind, as I see it, the Braves and the Mets.
This is definitely not a playoff caliber team.
Assuming no big dollar FA is signed, I fully expect another up and down cardiac season lol
If they don’t sign at least one big dollar FA I’ll be shocked and they could easily sign two.
They can’t sign two. They don’t have enough space. They aren’t exceeding the limit and have already shelled $15mil to the woman beater and scrub RPs
Leaves about $25mil or something, maybe $35mil
So you’re saying you want to see the 2020 Phillies bullpen again? Good luck with that. You know you need all types of players, right? Not just starters and superstar hitters. You’re only as good as your worst players and this team had a tone of holes.
And by the way it definitely wasn’t DD’s fault the team had a bunch of holes. Just as it wasn’t Daryl Morey’s fault when he inherited that sinking ship from Brian Colangelo and Elton Brand. Both guys took on very, very tough assignments.
No but why go for guys past their prime?
Either way, it’s hard to be excited about this current team. My mind will change if I see something that moves the needle.
I’m also concerned about Wheelers shoulder and Suarez will be behind.
Too many holes and phillies need a ton of consistent offense too. Let’s not forget they’re a streaky team that conveniently falters down the stretch.
TrollU – they got enough, plus the trade market. Grab one good upgrade from each. For instance, Chapman is pretty hard to pass up. He has 2 years of arb left. I’d trade Bohm, Painter, and Miller for him, especially if I believe Saurez is real. Chapman is better than Bohm, even if Bohm hits his projects. Chapman is an all around ball player. He’s better than what’s out there in FA. He’s less than 10 mil a year. Add Bryant/schwarber/or Castellanos. Plug and play. I left out conforto because Harper talked to the media today, he left him out. Gotta believer that’s a slip on his part. Personally I think Bryant is in the bag. Bryant is seeing how much payroll they have to milk that contract.
When your childhood best Friends and your wife’s are besties… I see it being pretty hard to pass on that for a few million.
If the Phillies do that, they’ll keep pace. Then they’ll have to execute on the field, draft day, & In player development. If they do that, the next 3-4 years should be really fun
matt … I would give DD more time before making any declaration on the Phillies chances of making the playoffs.
BTW … just because the Mets are going to have MLB’s first 300M payroll, doesn’t mean it was money well spent. Their uniform sponsor patch should be AARP. This winter, they’ve spent more than quarter-million dollars on 37 YO Max Scherzer, 33 YO Chris Bassitt, 33 YO Starling Marte, 33 YO Mark Canha, and 33 YO Eduardo Escobar. In addition, 39 YO Robinson Cano is back on the roster, and 33 YO Jacob deGrom (who missed mucho tiempo in 2021) can opt out after this season. What could go wrong with that picture?
Okay – the AARP comment was priceless!
Breaking news: Didi tells the Inquirer that DD told him after last season to be prepared to play a different position in 2022. And he had bone spurs last year, not pseudo gout
Sounds like DiDi knows his job is at risk so he’s backtracking
I do wonder on Familia and Hand. Hope they are better but the Archie and Hector comps are not too far off. I still think RP is the single most biggest need. The last 2 years the Phillies have given away so many games in the 7-9 innings. Easily would have been in playoffs with just a mediocre BP. Once you get in anything can happen. Sometimes luck falls your way.
Yes, he says he was misdiagnosed, and the meds for pseudo gout did him harm, didn’t help him. And, catch, you are correct. DD’s job isn’t done. But, I don’t hold out a lot of hope. And, here is my other issue. Yes, you are correct that the team shouldn’t have to spend the most to win, look at Tampa. But, we, the Phils, have stunk since 2011 ended horribly. Year #10, and the rebuild has failed to lead to homegrown talent leading the next generation of good Phillies teams. So, if John Middleton wants to win, and fully acknowledges that we have failed in building a good enough farm system, the only other avenue is to spend $. Or, tell us that the goal isn’t the Playoffs, currently, and trade all the high priced guys. But, he hasn’t done that. He sends out the POBO to laud the ownership’s “unbelievable desire to win”, and meanwhile shops in the dented can aisle, and tries to fill in the holes on the cheap. That is what the CF platoon is, on the cheap. That is what the insurance is for Wheeler and Ranger not being ready, and maybe not Eflin, for opening day. A host of a half dozen mediocre AAA Pitchers, on the cheap. So, I ask you what I asked Hinkie. Add any of the LFs to the mix, and where are we?
They don’t know. No one truly knows (besides Jim)
Only report I’ve seen is that they’ve kicked the tires on Nick C. That’s it.
CBS saying Phils out on Kiermaier. Most likely he stays with Rays.
Hinkie – A’s getting Pache makes Laureano expendable.
v1 … Jim reported (in last thread) that the Phillies aren’t as wild about Laureano as I am.
But would you do this ⤵
(2 years of) Matt Chapman
(3 years of) Ramon Laureano
(5 years of) Alec Bohm
No – that’s a farm system killer.
Grrr…it pains me to do this deal, but yes, I go for it. I would try hard to keep Rojas out of the deal. Giving him up scares me
I’d counter this trade.
1- I have money to sign a better OF player through FA
2- feels like A lot, without getting a pitcher back
What is the trade demand for just Chapman?
Bohm, Painter, Miller? Or is this not enough? Probably needs a 4th fringe prospect
That package is like 60% of the package they got for Olsen. Why do you think an elite 3B is worth that much less than a first baseman?
Interesting …does a player’s agent have any bearing in a return trade value? Comparing Olson and Chapman…..GMs may also be comparing Jet vs Boras.
A player’s return trade value is set by the market which is the basics of supply and demand. I assume all things are considered when setting demand, but obviously teams aren’t afraid of trading for players represented by Boras.
Chapman had a down year offensively last year and was still a 3.4 WAR player. He is just now entering his prime years. He is an elite defensive player at a premium position, who also happens to be under a very reasonable contract for the next 2 seasons. He has 20 WAR over his career (basically 4 full seasons). He is a guy that if you can get him to sign an extension, he can be your cornerstone 3B for at least the next 6 seasons. The supply of guys like that, who are truly available, is very limited.
The other best option is KB, who is an average defensive 3B. Is 2 years older and as a FA will cost a boatload to sign.
So pick your poison…give up prospects for Chapman or a boatload of cash for KB or bring back the worst defensive 3B in MLB.
Dombrowski may be able to get both Chapman and KB.
One in trade and the other with the $$$$.
And I can see that with KB settling in LF.
Chapman’s glove is what the Phillies and their pitchers need.
Also, I can live with Chapman if the HRs and glove remain plus-plus.
I will tolerate a 31%K in RISP, and low BA from his 2021 metric.
So? Olson is better than Chapman. Also a little younger.
1. Olson is not better than Chapman. Olson’s best WAR season was last year and it was a 5.0 WAR. Last year was Chapman’ worst full season WAR and it was 3.4 Chapman’s career war is 20 in effectively 4 full seasons. Olson’s career WAR is 15 in effectively 4 seasons. Chapman has already had 2 seasons of 6+ WAR. Olson’s best season was 5.0 WAR.
Olson is very good, but Chapman is materially more valuable.
2. 3B is also materially more valuable of a defensive position than 1B. Pretty much anyone can play 1B.
Hinkie, I’m not sure Rojas is available. DD said in his presser that there are prospects he doesn’t want to trade. I would bet that Abel is one. We can only speculate who and how many more he doesn’t want to trade. I do know that the Phillies were in on Kiermaier but the trade broke down when they insisted on Rojas and wouldn’t pay down any salary. That’s when they pivoted and signed someone else.
Jim … that’s the thing about Dave Dombrowski … he has a very good history of scouting his own system. He dealt a ton of highly ranked BoSox prospects (Michael Kopech/Yoan Moncada/Anderson Espinoza/Manny Margot/etc), but the two guys he made “Off Limits” were Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi. Dombrowski was right. He held on to his two best future MLB players (IMO). Not saying Moncado and Kopech aren’t good players. Just saying I’d rather have Devers and Benintendi.
If DD won’t trade Rojas, Stott, Abel, and Painter, he must be convinced they are going to be first division regulars or better (all-stars).
Winker and Suarez to Seattle. The Reds’ return I haven’t seen.
matt … that Mariners trade is another positive indicator in the Phillies pursuit of Matt Chapman. 24 hours ago, The Phillies, Yankees, Mariners, Blue Jays, and (maybe) Marlins were all reported potential landing spots for the A’s 3Bman. Two of those clubs are now out on Chapman. The fewer the bidders, the more affordable the player becomes (both in trade and free agency).
So, Hinkie, the Mariners deal. I know Williamson is a lefthanded SP, ranked in their top 10, but not 1 or 2. Fraley is an OF I couldn’t find a ranking for, and Dunn is a RHP they got from the Mets. I am not sure where the first 2 would be ranked. So, to do that deal with the Reds, what would that be from us? I don’t do the deal you proposed to v1 because I am not that high on Laureano. I don’t want to give up Painter and Rojas and Garcia. I know, I am hording my prospects. But, 2-3 years from now, I want positive contributions from the farm, and I think Stott and Abel and Rojas, and, maybe, Garcia, can be in the Majors then. I trade Bohm and Morales, and maybe a Maton to get Chapman. Anyway, what would our cost have been to do the Winker/Suarez deal?
Bohm, Morales and Maton is, in my view, not nearly enough to land Chapman.
I think it would be something like Bohm, Painter, Miller and McGarry or Garcia. It would hurt a bit.
Just came over, Reds get Justin Dunn, Brandon Williamson and Jake Fraley
matt13……met Fraley’s folks back in July 2015…Aaron Nola’s MLB debut….their son and Aaron were teammates on that LSU Tigers team….nice people from Delaware.
matt13…Fraley is an MLB player…not a prospect.
Thank You, Romus, I appreciate it. What do you think it would have cost us to equal that deal Seattle made with the Reds?
matt13…to tell you the truth, I would not know.
When i look at the other trades…Yankees/Twins….Braves/As…..there seems to be a good mixture of adequate MLB players and some prospects that do not excite me.
I mean how can you get excited about Gary Sanchez if his defense is below par for a catcher….or Christian Pache who did not come on the scene like an Acuna or Albies.
matt … if the Phillies had the cap room to eat Saurez’s money, they could have put together something like Erik Miller, Hans Crouse, and Matt Vierling to match the package the Mariners gave the Reds.
Hinkie – you totally nailed the Matt Olson situation. He just signed a ridiculously stupid (for him) 8 year contract for about $21m AAV along with a $20m 9th option year. So, yeah, they paid a premium to get him in the trade, but then signed him for a price that would essentially be impossible to replicate. To give you some idea of how good of a deal this is, last year, Olson played to a 5.8 WAR – market value of which is over $35 m. This contract was a steal and the deal with a player who had a less aggressive agent was a big part of the transaction.
As for Olson – man, what is he thinking? It’s a hell of a lot of money, but way less than he is worth.
While not impressed with the big club, I’m excited for farm season.
I think this is the year we see a huge jump from prospects. Lots to be excited about there.
Scott Boras (via Jon Heyman) put it out there that the Rox are “aggressively pursuing” Bryant…yeah right. I’m more convinced now that KB is in Clearwater long before the week is out. Let’s say 6/$132M.
I’d say 5 with a mutual opt. for the 6th yr….and an AAV of $24M, with a $10M buy-out in the 6th if they cannot agree.
I have such a bad feeling about giving Bryant a long contract. He should be fine for a year or two, but the stats say he is a descending talent at age 30, which concerns me an awful lot. The last 3-4 years of a Bryant contract could be brutal.
Blue Jays making big push for Schwarber and are front runners for his services per MLBTR
What if the big FAs don’t actually want to come to Philly? Is it a Middleton thing
If they lose out on every big time FA (hope they don’t) but I expect the response will be the FAs wanted years or dollars they weren’t comfortable with blah blah blah
If players are avoiding Philly it’s probably because of the fans.
You know, what with them complaining about a team that hasn’t even been finalized yet.
I’m not pleased with team for signing a woman beater. Excuse me for having morals.
I’m not pleased with a team that’s been terrible to ok since 2012.
I get the team is not finalized but I’d like to see the owner actually prove to the fans that he wants to put a winning team on the field. Signing guys that are past their prime or a woman beater isn’t exactly exuding confidence
Oh, is that what we’re doing now? Pretending we can’t literally go back and read your posts?
Because if you remember, I also don’t want Doobie in the majors. Didn’t want him last year, don’t want him this year. People make mistakes, but they have consequences and in my opinion a consequence of DV should be getting banned from professional sports (NFL would have a whole lot of new players…).
But that’s not all you’ve complained about even in just the past two days, is it? Be honest now. We can all read your comments.
Cutch a Brewer now
Good dude, wish Segura wasn’t lazy on that one play. I feel like his play was impacted from that for a good year or so
After seeing how much Herrera is making this year, I’m even more ok with resigning him. It’s almost a lock that he’ll out preform his pay.
Bingo! Exactly. They just need the centerfield platoon to be cheap and average, rather than a negative. If they do that for a couple of million bucks that’s a huge win.
Yeah, everything is in context. The knee jerk reaction to his signing (and again I’m no fan of his as a ballplayer, but the off the field issue has run its due course) is ignorant fan fodder. Dave Dombrowski hasn’t finished framing the roster by a long shot. The bullpen acquisitions weren’t sexy but necessary to remedy an awful cast from the last 2 years.
Herrera may not even be here come the trade deadline. Obviously no other teams were interested beyond the $1.75 million he’s getting. I’m eager like many to see DD make the big moves sooner than later, but there apparently aren’t many adults tweeting and posting comments with a reasonable amount of patience.
mark8:29 – couldn’t agree with you more. People have to stop thinking we are going to acquire Mike Trout. There are so many needs that sometimes you have to spend not quite 2 million Odubel money to save $$ for another player. Time will tell – but I think Hand was a smart sign – look at his Mets stats at end of year – and a CF for that kind of $ is workable. Too much to do. In the end if they improve the team without destroying the minor league player development there’s merit in that too. And, yes, I know this is a win now squad.
Not obvious. He had other offers, the Yankees among them, but preferred the Phillies organization.
Wasn’t aware that Freddy Freeman was a dual citizen of US and Canada. Makes sense now that the Jays are pushing for him, or else his agent is just leveraging that perception against the Dodgers. In any case, good guy who I’m glad is moving out of the division, perhaps the NL. His decision may be the lynch pin that opens up the other big signings.
The Braves basically took all of his leverage away. I’m sure he really wanted to finish his career as a Brave but he is a CA guy so who knows what he is thinking for what might be the last of his big contracts.
He’s going into his age 32 season so if you look at Nelson Cruz at age 41 and his $15 million just to hit you could project a number and years for Freddie. The guys plays and is rarely hurt. Stays in excellent shape too.
Not saying we can afford him but he is worth the risk more so than a few of the other guys.
After him I think Nick the Stick is the next best offensive player. Should be cheaper than both Freddie and Bryant.
I’m of the mindset DD should hold onto his top tier prospects and get one of these 3 guys and let’s see what we can do.
Brad Hand now a Phillie but BP still seems weak
Freeman being anywhere besides the Braves seems weird. That’s business though.
DeGrom plans to opt out of deal after this season. Wants to remain a Met. Guessing he’s seeing the money tossed around and will demand $35mil + and more years.
How much money comes off the books next year for Philly? Looks like they’re only committed (pre arb and arb) at around 106mil.
Judging from the one year deals thus far, they’re banking on big jumps from prospects for 2023 and beyond. Im comfortable with this, although, not pleased with the Odubel signing.
Truly praying Stott supplants DiDi. Maybe we see a bounce back from Kingery?
If he pitches somewhat like he did last year, deGrom is going to want AT LEAST $45 million AAV for 3-4 years and he just might get it. deGrom, last year, was on his way to the greatest statistical pitching season in MLB history – better than Bob Gibson’s given historical context. His WHIP was .554 and his ERA+ was 373 – which is so far above league average there is literally no historical comparison for those numbers. They are easily the greatest of all time in MLB history.
deGrom plus Scherzer….both mid-30s and above…..AAV together…almost $90M.
With age, and some health issues, that seems to be a risk Cohen seems willing to take.
If I was a betting man, Scherzer and deGrom won’t combine for 40 starts in 2022.
Agree….Scherzer at the end last year could not get thru 5 innings…and we saw what happened with Roy Halladay after thousand of innings pitched.
deGrom may be lights out for April and May , then it will be interesting to see how he holds up the remainder of the season.
DeGrom is a great pitcher but for my money he doesn’t stay healthy enough. Hopefully the Mets over react and give him a huge deal.
Payroll does not equal Championships.
To echo that, they said if
degrom opts out, MLBN said that means Mets had a good season
Let’s hope he doesn’t opt out 😉
DeGrom can have a good season and they could still end up being a horrible team. I mean that’s pretty much been the case for the past couple of years.
This is true. Steve Cohen seems a lot like Daniel Snyder, but, unfortunately for us, he doesn’t really have a salary cap. But I’m hoping for many miserable, disappointing years for Stevie boy.
How about this lineup.
1b/DH, share Hoskins/Bohm
LF- Kris Bryant
CF-Vierling/Moniak or Haseley
Like it or not (I know, you hate it), Odubel is part of the CF platoon with Vierling. Moniak and Haseley have to fight for playing time, if any.
I’ll take that LU Denny. I’d like to see Segura stay at 2B maybe slide Didi over to 3B instead.
An interesting player DD picked up was Camargo he was a very promising player as a 23 and 24 y/o with the Braves then his chances started to dry up and he basically fell off a cliff. He’s pretty solid defensively at 3B so if you can find a way to move Didi clear some of his salary you might be onto something with him.
You’re talking about a guy that hit 19 HRs in his age 24 season over 524 PAs that’s not too shabby.
Is he close to Chapman level comparative using all pros/cons? Maybe we have a solution in house or a platoon situation with Bohm/Camargo, Hoskins DH and Freeman 1b.
DMAR, After Camargo’s 2018 season, the Braves signed Josh Donaldson as a one-year bridge to Austin Riley. Camargo was relegated to a utility role in which he didn’t prosper. Camargo made 105 of his 122 starts at third base in 2018. He made 19 starts there in the 3 years since.
I am really amaze how the braves let freeman walk, He was heart of that team, imo and they could care less, He is worth every penny of what he gets, A terrific hitter, walks power good fielder, runs pretty good, If this happen in Philly they would be in revolt, I guess the braves know how well they pick talent and feel he can be replaced,
rocco..Olson is younger…same glove, virtually same bat…IMO JP A. made a good move.
its a business…unfortunately the Phillies did not see it that way back in 2012 or 2013.
Olson is much better than I gave him credit for yesterday. Alex A is proving to be a really fine GM so I should know better than to question any of his moves.
As good as Freeman was last year, Olson was more than a little bit better. He’s a flat out stud.
Romus the point i fail to make was, Freeman brings a lot into the locker room and field, That is hard to replace imo, He took less money before to be loyal to the braves, Olson might be as good on the field, But does he have freeman’s leadership, i wonder
also, if I may pile on ro RM’s comments, they paid A LOT for Olson in prospects, as well as salary – for a first baseman
Theoretically, they should be able to keep him with the DH. ATL is cheap as hell. Their payroll was around 160 million. Add in the steal of a contract they got on Acuna & Albies … they should pony up and pay freeman to keep that core together. That’s silly to let him walk. I guess ATL can’t make a profit when their payroll exceeds 160 million.
And ..their season tix sales are threw the roof this year….obviously in most markets it is that way after their team wins the World Series, but in Atlanta you never know.
I would❤❤❤❤❤❤ Freeman at 1b for Phillies.
I believe Dombrowski has another move, so I am not lacking patience. I just don’t like the Herrera move, and I am past his off field problem, I think he is not a good baseball player, and we have not upgraded a position that needed to be upgraded. Both CF and the lead off spot are not good, even with a platoon. Let’s face it, there are more RHPs. so Herrera will get the majority of the ABs. And, I don’t think he qualifies as average. So, any move DD makes in LF doesn’t make us better enough. I know some of you don’t care who gets traded from the Farm, and I respect your opinions, but I want to see, in the next couple of years, including Stott this year, regular contributions from the Farm. To me, that is Stott and Abel and Rojas and Garcia and Painter and McGarry. So, those are the guys I don’t trade. Just my opinion. And, my displeasure is aimed squarely at John Middleton, not Dombrowski.
Sixto…this may be a critical time for him.
Shoulder surgery success rate is lower than TJs.
Amazing…..looks like Klentak’s trade has worked out for the Phillies.
Alf is now a Padre….and Sixto is having his issues.
Chalk this one up for Klentak.
It was Romus. At the time I thought Sixto could have possibly netted us something more impactful than JT and under more years of control but clearly I was wrong about that.
Still of the philosophy I don’t like to have that much $$$ tied up at the C position but c’est la vie…
Some of you people are goofy (I mean that in the nicest most endearing way possible, seriously) . . . Herrera isn’t average? I get it, some of you hate the guy but to act like he isn’t a competent MLB player just isn’t true. He missed a full year of baseball (yes, his own fault) came back and wasn’t the reason we didn’t make the playoffs last year. He will be adequate in CF with the possibility of returning to a better than average player. Personally, I think he’s going to be closer to his first 3 years than year 4 and 5. And i’ll be pulling for him to do so. And he’s by far a better option than Moniak, Haseley or Kingery.
I know this won’t be a popular post but oh well.
I think the real tragedy is I spent a lot of time defending Herrera and how valuable he truly was back when the complaint was he was essentially air-headed…
I’m not defending him after his run-in with his girlfriend. If we ignore his off-field stuff, it’d be an extremely smart signing. And honestly, we likely COULDN’T have signed him at this rate if not for that stuff.
But I’ll never complain about NOT signing someone who has a violent tendency; regardless of if they’d make the team better. No one is perfect, and beggars can’t be choosers. But you gotta draw the line somewhere, and that’s certainly across my own personal line.
I don’t know the details of Herrera’s DV with his GF. What I do know is this a person should always have the chance to atone for a mistake. My brother was killed by a drunk driver. I wanted him to spend his time in jail and hopefully come out and be a better person.
I know the young man did 4 years and he will spend the rest of his life writing a check to my brothers alma mater for a scholarship given out in my brothers name every year to an aspiring school teacher.
Is that penance enough I don’t know. But what is the point of punishment if not to rehabilitate a person.
Granted should it ever happen again boom out of the league.
DMAR- That’s horrible man, i’m sorry for your loss. Shows the kind of person you are to be able to say you hope he comes out a better person, much respect. As a police officer i’ve seen both the aftermath of drunk driving and DV, a lot of the times (esp with the latter) it happens over and over again. I think Herrera does deserve some credit for turning his life around, it seems like he’s done everything right since whatever transpired with his girlfriend (believe it was his GF at the time). I root for those who have made horrible mistakes and change their life, because so many times that doesn’t happen (meaning changing for the better).
I get that i’m in the minority with that opinion.
DMAR, that sure puts discussing Baseball in perspective. So sorry for your loss. I try to stay away from the whole rehab part of the Herrera discussion. I just disagree with Eric’s assessment of his ability. I wanted an upgrade in CF, and at leadoff, and am happy to be proven wrong. Anyway, I wanted to express my condolences for what you and your family went through.
Matt I appreciate that. It is though just that perspective and my perspective. Everyone else is entitled to their feelings on the subject.
Appreciate that Eric and yes my forgiveness would only go so far as to say never let it happen again…
I appreciate your service as an officer. What a difficult thing it must be to see people so often in their worst moments.
DMAR, my heart goes out to you. We all have people we know or have met who simply rub us the wrong way. And when they’ve hurt us in some significant way, directly or indirectly, the easiest thing to do is harbor that offense as collateral against their soul. Redemption is always a good aim, and second chances are necessary in most cases. Right on!
All my negativity towards OH has been baseball related and nothing personal. We have had the “Interview” session lasting years and I find him as an unacceptable candidate for this position (CF). Show in the next candidate please.
I got a story I’ll share from my days in EMS, it’s not the same as Herrera , but it shows how far DV can go if left unchecked. It’s not always as obvious as bruise/broken bone etc. A Big woman with diabetes & asthma was abusing a smaller stature man. Repeatedly, like a frequent flyer couple. She didn’t stop, the man was thoroughly embarrassed to be beaten by a woman. She was big, like 350+ lbs, he was 100-125 lbs. Well… one day she had a bad asthma attack: We Got to the house, she was dead on the floor, with her inhaler very close to her hand. When she called 9/11. She complained of Shortness of breath, not being able to find her inhaler. Did her partner help her find that inhaler? Did he hide it from her? Plant that inhaler before we showed up? Not my area, but my gut told me yes he did … knowing their history. He was a beaten man in more than one way. It doesn’t make the news, but I would be dollars to donuts that kind of DV happens more times than not, where it looks like a medical incident. Whether a male of female doesn’t really matter… DV is a serious issue, and comes in all shapes and forms. I’d prefer to not have Herrera, but he seems to be doing Much better than DV couples I’ve encountered. He deserves a fair chance to rise up. I really hope he doesn’t disappoint anyone
So sorry for your loss. That just sounds awful, but it sounds like you’ve come to peace with it in a very productive and helpful way. Good for you, man.
Eric D…one pro vs con.
He is on a one year ‘pillow’ contract…..you can bet he will be busting it.
That incentive on his part may be to the Phillies advantage
Agree with Eric and Catch and Romus on Odubel’s contract. Hard to believe we’re even discussing a 1 year $2 million deal for an MLB player.
How would you like to be the Braves with Ozuna…
Signing Herrera for a year is a good sign that they won’t trade Rojas. Seems they have a lot of faith that the youngster will be the CF of the future.
It looks like the money they would have to have spent to pay Kiermaier will go to whatever free agent they eventually sign. Perhaps sometime this week.
ciada…..I can see Rojas starting at Jersey Shore and moving up to Reading at the half-way mark….then maybe a touch of AAA pitching in Sept @ LHV.
Opening up for possibly a June/July call up to the Phillies in 2023…he will turn 23 later that same year.
I hope he just keeps progressing at the plate….his defense is already plus.
Zach McAllister signed a minor league deal with the Cards after not being able to get back on track in our system last year.
So he’s my bet for comeback player of the year. What do we think? 3.30 ERA over 70+ innings? 28% K rate? Top 3 CY finisher?
Found this to be interesting about 40 man contracts if you’re on your first contract your salary is $57K and if you’re on your second its $114K for 2022. By 2026 those figures increase to $63 and $127.
Hopefully the next step is through attrition in the lower minors and the number of players with basically no chance at big league careers salary can increase for those guys as well.
Well, Heath Hembree is now off the board. I hope D.Dombrowski is happy letting him slide by. Hopefully, he’ll jump on David Hale.
Nice one Ciada.
Don’t forget that VV also just signed with the White Sox so that’s another high impact arm off the market.
meanwhile in Philly, it’s quiet…
Not to stir up false hopes, but I’m feeling something big is going down today. Virtual silence on the twitter feeds, can’t even find Phillies related tweets on google…quiet before the proverbial storm on a day you’d think would be chuck full of rumors beside Freddie chatter.
With the official announcement of Hand and Familia being signed, the Phillies have DFA’d lefty Scott Moss.
Braves have their 1B of the next (near) decade at a good price. Olson gets 8/168, plus a club option.
Hinkie looking absolutely clairvoyant: https://phuturephillies.com/2022/03/14/open-discussion-week-of-march-13-2022/#comment-534904
Agreed – commented on the same above. He nailed it.
Olson just got paid by the Braves.
What a smart organization. Got a younger player at a fairly good rate.
Meanwhile in Philly…it’s quiet
Exactly what I thought would happen. Olson’s agent BB Abbott pushed Olson to sign a below market LTX before Olson could even consider switching agencies (Boras or Excel) the closer he got to reaching the open market. The Braves seek out good players repped by smaller agencies.
Sentiment will take you only so far in this world. Freddie Freeman was an organization icon, but Anthopolous wasn’t around for much of his era and to add insult to injury, he has an eye on the future. The Phillies might do well to take notes.
Who’s Dillon Maples?!?!?
Big arm. Control issues. Sam Coonrod 2.0 – which isn’t a bad thing for a minor league deal.
He had his best year last year with the Cubs and they have relief problems and they release him?
Right triceps strain last June..shut down a month…when he came back only pitched 9 more innings over the next two months…11 BBs.
Assume he must be healthy now…or pitching with an UCL on borrowed time
I saw Vinny V signed someplace yesterday 1/$3 mil
Saw a broadcaster rave about his elite stuff when the signing came down. Yeah, I’ve watched him for 4 or 5 years now. He no longer has elite stuff. It’s decent, but nothing more. He’s not the same guy who blew away 16 Padres.
Now that Freddie’s price has come down with Olson in Atlanta, San Diego has reportedly joined Boston and Toronto in bidding for his services. Wonder if DD would wait out the market until he siezes the opportunity? Gotta think 6 years is the max any team will go…maybe $150M?
…let’s all remember that Dombrowski’s been to this rodeo quite a few times already. I’m aware of the potential Middleton factor, but I’m very confident in DD’s competence, despite the dopey comments to the contrary.
I’d bet Freddie Freeman gets at least 6/180M. Not impossible some team goes 7/200M. Just my opinion.
Apparently, right now looks like either the Dodgers or Jays.
I’d do 6/$180 in a heartbeat. Heck do 8/$224 with years 7-8 being club options to get the AAV down some. Freddie is going to hit at a very high level for many years to come and now with a DH easy to keep his bat in the LU while give him some time off his feet to stay fresh.
And at least for the next 2-3 seasons I don’t see his defense slipping either. He’s not your typical big heavy bodied 1B.
About a week ago, my daughter asked me if I thought there was more doors or more wheels in the world (apparently it’s all the rage/trending).
BTW … I immediately answered “wheels” … but … after taking into account the amount of doors in a house (and especially office buildings, apartment buildings, malls, etc), I changed my guess to “doors”. Although, my daughter explained there are plenty of wheels in buildings too. I still stand by “doors”.
We know athletes past their prime kind of lose the mojo… Can it happen to GM’s? I know GM’s have more external forces that they don’t control to effect their performance than athletes, yet to-date I’ve been only so-so on the Dombrowski Phillies era..It’s like going to see a legendary rock band and they sound off, lack energy and your sorry you went because you wanted what they were before.
Saw a Matt Winks tweet earlier wondering whether my old pal Adonis Medina has been placed on waivers, DFA…??? Anybody?
Lmao Rockies in tense negotiations and our connection is Bryce pushing DD to do something. Definitely doesn’t give hope.
Bryant and Freeman, cut OH and trade Didi or Segura. Save $15-16million, spend some.
I honestly don’t think the Phillies will be outbid by Colorado for Bryant with any reasonable amount of intelligence in their respective offers unless Dombrowski already has either Castellanos or Schwarber lined up for the taking. Now if the Rockies are offering KB 8/$200M, then good luck with that contract. Let’s get real. Boras is playing his typical hand and Colorado is his last chance to up the ante.
Someone texted me earlier saying Jayson Stark is down on the Phillies moves so far. My response was, “what moves?”
They got no stinkin’ moves!
Someone said Stark also said KB doesn’t want to come to Philly…
Ok cross him off. Down to two big bats.
Man, you’ve got to stop buying everything you read and hear. We all have opinions but jeez, give it a rest with the knee jerk reactions, please.
You are correct, mark. This cannot be the plan, this has been a tiny appetizer. The BP arms are a bit like the BP moves from past seasons, hoping that Familia and Hand get back to their once upon a time forms. Both are risky, both couldn’t throw strikes last year, and both were signed with the prayer that they get back closer to what they once were. We have discussed Herrera way too much, but even his strongest supporters can’t think he moves the needle for the team. So, we wait and see what happens. I don’t think there is any 8/$200M coming from Colorado. I think their offer would be short term, maybe with an opt our, with a high AAV, so he can hit a lot of HRs at Coors Field, and up his value. Or, an attempt by Boras to get more $ from us.
matt13……if the Rox let Arenado and Story both go…..who are better fielders than KB, and bats are equal to some degree…..why would they be trying to bring in a guy at 29-years old on a LTC?
Makes no sense to me.
An KB does not want to come to Philly…huh!
That is an entirely new one on me…most players like to come to Philly.
I have heard more players not wanting NYC than Philadelphia.
This has to be Boras tactics at work.
Who’s expected to be the backup for Realmuto now that Knapp is gone.
Stubbs and/or Sands
What happened to Marchan?
SD in on Freeman. Need/have tried to unload Hosmer. What if you could get Hosmer and $20M from the Padres. They want out of his contract really bad. He’d be getting $10M a year for 4 years. It would improve the D so much. Hoskins as primary DH. Sit Hosmer against tough lefties. Come on! Play along with me.
Nah on Hosmer. He was a flash in the pan in KC who turned his market up at the right time with a club like SD which at the time was trying hard to impress the baseball world that they were big time players for names. Hoskins is more productive than Hosmer. Again, I’d rather DD go for Bellinger if LAD lands Freddie.
Darn it Phillies. Go for it; Bryant & Freeman.
Poor Pads…lost Tatis for the next three months with a broken left wrist.
Last year it was the left shoulder…..he may be a long term health risk.
Perhaps a cousin of Roman Quinn?
Some guys , once it starts, just seem to roll right into more tears, strains and breaks.
ciada, A lot of folks on this site have advocated for years that we do things like that. I would have gotten high level prospects back on numerous occasions in return for taking on some teams’ unwanted contract. But, we have never done that, and I don’t think the team will start doing that now.
Like they also claim to know what DD is going to do.
I’m predicting Phillies sign Soler and it comes down to years and money for not signing the others.
On the big 3 free agent targets, I would classify them each this way…
Kris Bryant should most benefit the team chemistry and his positional flexibility serves the roster well. His Vegas crew membership with Harper and Stott should ‘in theory’ be a plus.
Kyle Schwarber seems like the best organic fit for the lineup, either middle of the lineup or leading off. His connection to hitting coach Kevin Long is a selling point as well.
Nick Castellanos is the biggest impact bat of the three. I think his contract demands, especially length in years, might make him the least likely to sign here. Plus his lack of defensive skill makes him an ideal DH, but he wants to play the field, while the Phillies will be employing a rotation for the DH.
Mchugh sure would’ve been a good piece for Philly
Colin McHugh to (who else) the Braves. Two years for $10M. Phillies could use a little help in the SP department.
Blue Jays currently view their chances on Schwarber as better than their chances on Freeman, sources tell @TheAthletic
. The competition for Schwarber, though, remains intense, with Phillies and others in the mix.
Phillies specifically mentioned , now .wondering if Schwarber will be wearing Phillies red.
I know I get blasted for my doubts but it sure feels like (as I’ve predicted) that Phillies miss on all big bats.
TBH Soler seems like a more likelier and affordable option for their small big market wallet.
I’m not a big fan of OHerrera, but his signing probably means that Vierling will get playing time in the platoon and will give him a chance to show what he can do. Don’t be surprised if he is the starting CFer by the end of the season.
Nor sure why teams don’t do more platoons, especially for young players trying to establish themselves. Vierling will get his ABs, and Herrera will likely outperform his cheap 1 year deal.
Phillies in 1993 used platoon at multiple positions.
One of the big reasons multiple platoons is increasingly rare in the current MLB is the number of pitchers on the rosters. You can’t really platoon 3-4 positions when you’ve only got 4 or 5 position players on the bench and one of them is your backup catcher.
As for young guys specifically, you run the risk of them not developing properly against same-handed pitchers (assuming that’s how the platoon is split, as it usually is). If you go with a less conventional platoon where you essentially just split time based on the day instead of a match-up, that might help. But at that point the extra ABs from playing full time would probably help more.
With Dillon Maples that is 21 pitchers on the AAA roster. 22 Pitchers on 40 man roster and 13 will be on MLB roster, so that adds 9 more to the 21 for a total of 30 to pick 12 for the AAA roster.
JoJo Romero throwing “easy gas.”
Rizzo to Yankees. 2 year $32m
Does this start the market for bigger FAs?
Brad Miller reunion dreams crushed. He went to Rangers.
Crazy to think the Phillies are losing 47+ home runs between Miller and Cutch.
And also losing 244 strikeouts (in 951 PAs, so 25.7% K%) and a combined dWAR of -2.3.
They were both decent offensively, but nothing I’ll particularly miss. And defensively… oof. Honestly, this team would probably be better off going to the other end of the spectrum and getting defense-first players to replace those two (assuming they don’t get someone who is good at both, which is rare for their respective roles). We’ve got a decent amount of power as is, and there’s still plenty more of it available on the market. What we’re lacking is definitely defense… and a bullpen.
Very true……defense and relief arms.
Good news…Seranthony has been looking good and he says he feels good….so he can be a real shot in the arm for the BP, if he is able to return to full strength.
Chapman would have upgraded the defense immensely. As much as I’m on board getting Bryant, he’s not much of a defensive upgrade at 3b over Bohm.
Sorry all you Chapman trade wanters, he’s going to Toronto. Let’s see what the haul is for the As.
It’s time for a big signing today!
Crap!! Now Bryant becomes more of an urgency since there’s no way, even in a platoon with Didi at 3b, that Bohm can be trusted at the hot corner in a win now scenario, along with an unproven glove in Stott at SS. Let’s get something done, POBO!
Wow, I am surprised at Bluejays. Making top notch moves. They got 2 of my top 3 off-season acquisitions – Semien & Chapman. On base machines. My 3rd is CF Reynolds, but they likely don’t need him with their lineup.
Well good news fellas, we get to keep our top prospects. This is likely an indication that Bryant is in the bag or Schwarber
I did forget about Carmaga (sp) signing, that’s likely an under the radar signing. He can do what Miller did , and maybe Didi does have a bounce back year if he truly was hurt. Still need that Bat
I think (and I posted this near the end of the last open thread) DD is a little frustrated with his inability to spend past the LTT. Somebody leaked word to Matt Gelb that the POBO can only spend up to the soft cap. The only ones with access to that info are the owner(s) and POBO. I’m certain it wasn’t Middleton who spoke to Gelb. It was either Dombrowski or one of his guys (Fuld/Velandia/Kilambi). IMO it was probably Fuld under Dombrowski’s direction. And the fact that it was leaked right before Dombo brought back Odubel for peanuts makes it even more reasonable to presume it was Dombrowski who wanted the word put out that he is working within financial restraints (aka … Middleton isn’t spending stooopid money).
According to Roster Resource, the Phillies are currently ~32M under the LTT. Kris Bryant is probably going to get a contract similar to JT Realmuto IMO (23M AAV). That would leave Dombrowski <10M to spend on a bench player, SP depth, and it would have made it almost impossible to trade for Chapman (who's going to make 9.5M thru arb this season).
Remember … the new CBA (as far as I know) has eliminated draft pick penalties for exceeding the LTT, and clubs are only subject to a 20% tax on the first 20M over the 230M soft cap. In a nutshell, Middleton (who is worth 3B dollars) could spend 250M on his payroll, and only have to write a 4M tax check. How badly does the Phillies owner really want his f*@#ing trophy back?
I agree with your analysis, but nobody should be surprised by this. They have never exceeded the LTT and, certainly, there is no reason to believe they would exceed the LTT now. I do think it’s possible that they go over the LTT with a trade deadline deal when the team is contending for a championship (not just milling around WC contention), but, if it happens at all, it will be a very rare occurrence.
The Phillies are fastidious rule followers. As I once said, not only do they not think outside the box, they ARE the box. In any event, given that 80 percent of the teams are below the LTT, it’s a little hard to be too damning because I expect them to go right up to the LTT at $230m, although they might leave themselves around $5-8 m to accommodate mid-season deals.
Let’s see how this plays out over the next week or two, but if they don’t emerge with at least one very good FA middle order bat and another solid FA acquisition, the criticism will be warranted.
Another Phillies hopeful off the board. Chapman to the Blue Jays.
Maybe that takes them out of the Schwarber running? Different positions obviously but just wishful thinking
Not sure what Toronto’s payroll looks like but acquiring Chapman via trade and signing a left handed thumper in Schwarber are not mutually exclusive. Smart or not, I can see the Jays going all in…
The Bluejays have typically not been able to keep up with the AL East teams in terms of spending, I believe in large part due to the currency exchange. These players cost even more for them. If history is an indication, I’d say they are done. They already signed Semien to large FA deal as well. The haul for Chapman likely cost them good prospect capital, they need to save money to but together an extension for Chapman. They’ll do it soon too before he realizes he doesn’t like Canada 🙂
It wouldn’t be the currency exchange, but it definitely might be the tax rates. Canadians pay way a way higher tax percentage of earnings than Americans on the whole, especially in higher brackets.
I spoke to soon. Looks like TOR can still afford Freeman or Schwarber . They are going to be absolutely stacked if they do. So stacked, they are going to make Yankees fans jealous. Wow. Might have to be a Bluejays fan on the down low. Wow. One move away from making all the Yankees & Redsoxs fans rage.
Chapman is a boras client so he’s likely not to sign an extension. They got a 2 year window open with him. It’s NOW time for TOR. I predict they will sign one of freeman or schwarber.
2B – Segura
RF – Harper
LF – Bryant or Schwarber
1B – Hoskins (Bohm)
C – Realmuto
3B – Didi/Bohm
SS – Stott
DH – ? Rotation of players on the board
Not looking as hot of a lineup as I was dreaming.
Will see who they land. The bullpen should be improved with the new closer & a healthy SirA at minimum. It’s been that much of dumpster fire. Alvarado & Brogdon. I feel A lot better there, feels like the pen can jump to a top 10-15 in the league vs the bottom.
Team starts to get scary when you think about Abel & Painter developing in back to back years, to pair with Wheeler, Nola, & Suarez. Though FA is coming up for wheeler, Nola, & Efflin during the prospects expected eta
Comparing the “exciting” prospects that Atlanta sent to Oakland for Matt Olson with the Phillies….Pache or Rojas (I take Rojas), Langaliers or O’Hoppe (I take O’Hoppe), Cusik or Abel or Painter (I take Abel or Painter)….I’m not saying we should have traded for Olson but I am saying our prospects have damn good value.
Schwarber to Philly
I need to learn patience. Sorry lol
Suzuki a Cub
Troll beat me to it …
Good move….good bat.
I await a big trade now.
I have to remember the Phillies are very very quiet when conducting business. It’s just easy to overreact.
I haven’t seen numbers but yet but I can only assume it takes them out of KB and NC markets.
Now, maybe they get creative and trade some dollars (DiDi please). Or they exceed if KB wants to come play with his pal.
It’s only for one year. They have some money coming off the books after this season.
4 years at just under 20M AAV.
TOLD YA!!! This is the one guy I wanted more than anyone else and, like Realmuto, Hoskins, Gregorious and Harper, will get plenty of DH at bats too. This guy is a killer as a hitter. He can literally carry a team for the better part of a month and he has great plate discipline. I am psyched!!!!
While I like the LH bat, you’ve got to ask yourself, “is this team any better defensively?” The answer is “no”. The Phillies’ offense is going to have to click on all cylinders this year. The good news is the BP has been upgraded. It’s definitely deeper than at any time over the last decade.
The bottom line is … they are going to need to out-slug opponents, and hope their pitchers stay healthy (or young arms like Falter and/or Crouse will have to step up in a big way). That’s not the best formula for winning, but I guess it’ll have to do,
I cannot fathom Alec Bohm at 3B for the whole season, just too much defensive uncertainty.
Romus, I agree with you. I look at Bohm and he just screams trade candidate to me. If they are looking to pull off a trade for a stud player, I would have to think he’s the first player the Phillies include in any package.
But why? Well, I agree with you on his fielding. I just don’t see him ever being a competent third baseman, not even for the medium/short term. So that leaves him at first, left field or DH. Hoskins is a superior offensive player at first, so that really doesn’t work. The team intends to use a rotation at DH, which makes a ton of sense but limits ABs for Bohm there. Schwarber is your left fielder, so that’s tough too. Maybe they start him at third, see how he hits and then take it from there in hopes he recovers his swing. I just see a very odd fit here and that, to me, suggests the player will likely be moved.
The problem is that every team sees the same thing, so not sure how much trade value he has. Not only is he positionless, but he struggles mightily against 95+ velo. I was looking at this fangraphs stats yesterday, his ability to hit 4-seem fastballs is atrocious. Other teams see the same stats. I just don’t think that he has much value in the market.
Yup, I hear you. It’s very possible they just try to get his bat going again and resurrect some value for him. He seems to fight off good FBs which is a problem since the modern game features relievers with serious heat. If you can’t hit a good FB in 2022, you’re going to have serious problems. Hitting good heat is what makes Hoskins so special. He can turn anything around.
IMO a Bohm/Luis Garcia/Erik Miller package or a Bohm/Maton/Miller package > than the Gunnar Hoglund/Kevin Smith/Zach Logue/Kirby Snead package Toronto gave up.
I’m not so sure the Phillies missing out on Chapman wasn’t more about the LTT limits DD is being handcuffed by.
I guess that’s possible but don’t they still have plenty of room left to pay Chapman and still be under the LTT with a little room to spare?
catch … the Phillies LT total began the morning at nearly 198M. Schwarber is getting ~20M AAV. Chapman is set to make almost 10M thru arb. Those two moves would put them at ~127M, and would leave them unable to add SP depth, and leave them with no room to possibly add at the trade deadline (like you mentioned above). Maybe Middleton would ok Dombrowski to go over the threshold at the deadline, but why wait? The first 100 games are just as important as the last 62.
The Chapman package was less than I expected. Certainly less than Olsen which doesn’t make sense to me.
Not sure I agree on your package having equal value. Hogland was the 19th pick last year. That seems more in line with Painter than Miller.
Bohm vs Smith. I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Smith has few MLB reps but it comes down to whether you think he is an MLB 3b. Because Bohm isn’t.
The others are MLB ready.
But agreed the package was lighter than I expected
Yeah. Hoglund is a good prospect. He’s a first round pick. Bohm was a first round pick too (1-3). Hoglund hasn’t thrown a pitch in pro ball. He’s recovering from TJ. Bohm may have had a brutal sophomore MLB season, but he had an excellent rookie year.
For me, Kevin Smith isn’t even in the same discussion as Bohm.
I go back to Reynolds…offer Bohm, Rojas (since we’d have Reynolds for some time to come), Garcia, Painter and Miller. Pittsburgh can’t possibly slam the phone down on that package.
mark … pretty sure the Pirates would demand 3 of Abel/Painter/Stott/Rojas, and probably want a lottery ticket to boot.
Imo they are done in the OF. They are going with a platoon in CF and Schwarber in LF
“is this team any better defensively?”
If Gregorius is healthy he should improve. His defense was the opposite of his career norms by a lot and he was hurt. If Veirling plays more with the DH available for Schwarber then yes there will be a bit of improvement. For the most part the defense is the same. But Gregorius is the only spot I could see an improvement on defense as I believe his 2021 was an anomaly.
Didi’s elbow didn’t make old, slow and lumbering in the field.
BINGO!!! Phillies signing Schwarber. My number one target. They won’t regret it. He will give the line-up that last big hitter it needs to just demolish the opposition. I LOVE IT!!!
4 years just under 20m AAV.
Alright DD, it’s time to show us your still the man. What’s your next move? You should not be done. We know you like to wheel and deal. Are you going to trade Didi or Segura? To free up the cash to bring in Bryant? I gotta believe Harper is putting the pressure on now. It is setup to happen, will see if it does. If not, I gotta believe another trade is out there. Does it make sense to now pay the prospect bounty to PIT for Reynolds?
Miller or Crouse
I like Jean but trade him and slot in Kingery if he shows his struggles are thing of past. Frees up $15mil? They can’t dump Didi’s salary. No one wants to pay for an excuse making SS that couldn’t hit a toilet bowl with a turd.
This team absolutely, positively cannot rely on Kingery at second. Unless you get a great offer for Segura, you leave him alone. With power hitters galore in this line-up a guy with Segura’s skillset become much more valuable.
Not sure how but I think DD has a trade in the works. Was expecting Bryant but Schwarber is a perfect fit. Nice!!
If Kevin Long is top hitting coach, hopefully Bohm has a solid bounce back. Maybe even Kingery…
I want Stott at short if he shows he can hit.
Absolutely. Stott is so underrated and you want to give him every chance to succeed. You start him out hitting 8th or 9th and hope he just plays solidly this year. I am a big fan of his.
Maybe Kingery in CF. Last 4 world series winners had CFer’s hitting below .255. Maddox hit .259 in 1980.
If Kingery can be coached back to hitting competence, he’s definitely a CF candidate. Why not? I think the CF job this year is a big competition. Whoever plays the best is going to get the most playing time. It’s that simple.
Actually this reminds me of something; maybe part of the reason we haven’t traded for someone like Kiermaier is because DD knows Joe will keep running him out there even if a young guy is looking good.
Okay, that’s mostly a joke… but I am legitimately worried about any platoon that he’s in charge of. He absolutely refused to play the young guys even when they were on a tear. I can’t think of a single other manager that would have kept someone hitting over .400 on the bench like he did with Vierling.
Hence Joe’s in the final year of his contract without an extension. While DD and Joe have mutual respect for each other, their may also be a mutual understanding that DD is reserving his right to name a manager moving forward…
As for CF, while I understand the Odubel signing, I can’t help but think that Dombrowski made that a contingent situation based on whether he can acquire a Reynolds or Varsho as the trade market plays out as opening day approaches. Fall back is you’re only paying Herrera under $2M as a bench player. Again, I’m hoping…
Chapman off the board. went to Toronto
If they can get Soler for $10m or under, I say do it
I don’t see that happening. Where does he play? You have Harper in right (he can’t play center anymore), you have Schwarber in left (he can’t play center at all), and Soler can’t play centerfield. They don’t have room for a permanent DH.
Unclear precisely what move is next for the Phillies. There might be a trade or two brewing we know nothing about right now.
DH and rotate in and out of field. Need a good bench guy with pop.
With $12M remaining under the cap, there’s not much room to get another major piece, UNLESS Dombrowski can unload Segura and/or Didi in a trade. Signing Schwarber gets us close but the roster is yet incomplete…another SP, and the defense needs to be improved.
With Herrera in the fold on the cheap, might DD still be looking at CFs? Then, Doobie, Vierling, Camargo, Marchan and ???? off the bench. How about that Daulton Varsho in Arizona, Harry?
….plus Varsho would also serve as 3rd catcher.
You need to get a nice return to trade Segura. He’s a very good player. He played to 3.7 WAR last year, which is just right below All-star level. His type of player (constantly on base, good hit tool to advance runners, solid fielder) is also essential in a line-up of sluggers. Something really dramatic would have to open up for the team to consider trading him, especially considering that his replacement is probably not on the roster now.
Totally agree with Mr. Hinkie. Except for maybe Kirby Snead, the Jays did not really give up that much. The Phils could’ve parted with a number of guys and not hurt the farm. Gotta think that Bohm is more valuable than the 3B the Jays sent to the As.
Schwarber’s numbers and years were more than I thought he would command. I kind of figured he would get 3 years at $17M per but I guess because he was such a hot commodity that the numbers and years got inflated to what it ended up as.
Also agree with Troll that getting Soler for a year wouldn’t be bad. He’d be the 4th-5th OF and get time as the DH and spell Harper in RF when Harper DHs. Back to Hinkie: They will still be one of the worst defensive teams in all of baseball and that hurts.
I agree with this. If this team didn’t pull off a Chapman trade for that level of player because they were worried he’d put them $3-4 million over the LTT. Well, that is the height of stupidity, and, yes, it’s definitely possible the orthodox “rule following” Phillies drew the line there – as painful as that may be.
Chapman would have solved a whole bunch of problems at the same time. He was almost the perfect player to acquire, so I am bummed out about that.
Great move signing Schwarber. Now, they must get creative and find a way to reconstruct the middle of their infield. They appear to be going all in on an offensive minded approach as they have assembled the worst defensive team in all of baseball. Who is an average to above average defender besides Realmuto, Segura, and Harper? The way that they are constructing their bullpen seems to fit with the general strategy of hit to win as most of their relievers are high K guys who mostly all have control issues. Due to salary LTT contraints, it would be wise to hand over the SS position to Stott. Unless they do not think he is ready to hit major league pitching, he should be their starter at SS. The obvious issue is finding a trade partner to take on some of Didi’s salary. Camargo seems to be their defensive hedge for Bohm at 3B. Expect Camargo to be substituted for Bohm as a defensive replacement at times. If they could move both Didi and Segura, could they perhaps move Stott to 2B and sign Story? Dreaming.
I’m starting to see Bohm as the main DH. SS is Stott, 2B – Segura, and Didi at 3B. DD told Didi to be ready to play a different position next year… looks like It’s 3B. Unless they get Bryant
Note, the Bluejays robbed the A’s. I’m even more convinced now after learning Chapman had a hip injury that needed surgery. That’s the best trade of the off-season imo. His defense alone is worth the prospects the Bluejays gave up. Factor in his bat, they should’ve gotten more. The A’s are what is bad for baseball. Imagine the Phillies finally develop players, and THEN they trade them away early to get more propects. Crazy. It’s working for the A’s to make Playoff appreancds but no WS titles.
And I understand folks saying that the Phillies should absorb half of Didi’s salary, but, honestly, do you think any team is prepared to pay $7 million for what Didi provided last year? I don’t. They are going to want that Phillies to pay $10 million at least and, at that point, is it worth it? Probably not.
They would need to throw in a prospects. I say it’s worth it if they can get enough dough to sign Bryant.
Baseball really should’ve implement an LTT floor, and this easily happens imo. Kind of crap that they didn’t. It allows teams to get out from under bad contracts. & it incentivizes player to not inflate their worth. If they do… and they stink up the joint, will ship you off to PIT or BAL! Also, it would stop the A’s from selling of the faces of the franchise Ever 2 years
What is Bryant like at 3b?
Denny…-4 DRS over his career..a little less than average ….however, better than Bohm, less than Chapman.
Rotational DH. Bohm, Bryant, Hoskins & Schwarber.
…and JTR for about 25 games.
They would need to throw in a prospects. I say it’s worth it if they can get enough dough to sign Bryant.
Baseball really should’ve implement an LTT floor, and this easily happens imo. Kind of crap that they didn’t. It allows teams to get out from under bad contracts. & it incentivizes player to not inflate their worth. If they do… and they stink up the joint, will ship you off to PIT or BAL! Also, it would stop the A’s from selling of the faces of the franchise Ever 2 years
Trades are coming – either to make LTT room for Bryant or to cap off another piece.
I’m aiming for Bryant or Reynolds. Per the Chapman trade not going down, I believe the Phillies have prospects teams want. I can also see DD acting like a vulture and circling over the A’s for cheap, value scraps
I’m with you, Tac3…even if the Phillies eclipsed the LTT to sign Bryant, they would shed roughly $30M next winter when Didi and Jean are off the books. We’re counting on Dombrowski’s MO to be creative and get something done to solidify this unfinished roster.
Assuming 13 position players (with a 26 man roster as the norm long term), here’s what I’m looking at:
…that’s 12 which at this point seem the likeliest to me. The 13th player MUST be an impact player…either a bonafide CF or a better 3b glove. Hence Dombrowski cannot possibly be finished if this team is to be legitimate contenders for the division.
I agree with everything you said up until the last point you made about the 13th player being an impact player. That will only happen if the team makes a big trade. I can’t see them getting an impact player for $10 m on the open market.
We need Vierling and Stott to be what we thought Bohm and Kingery were going to be
I believe the top priority would be to get another starting pitcher. Who cares if they have enough now, there are always too many questions of whether or not someone is injured or will miss time
Gotta’ hope Bryson Stott has a really good training camp. The new CBA awards teams who don’t play the service time manipulation game. If Stott is on the opening day roster, he could earn the Phillies a pretty high draft pick (or two … or even three).
Potential early season LU:
1 Schwarber LF
2 Segura 2B
3 Harper RF
4 Hoskins 1B
5 Realmuto C
6 Gregorius DH
7 Bohm 3B
8 Stott SS
9 Odubel/Vierling CF
….I’m good with that lineup offensively (I think?) but who here can catch anything other than a cold? Not looking forward to more grey hairs from more blown saves due mainly to shabby defense unable to make routine plays.
This certainly won’t be popular but I think the heavy lifting is done. Hugely concerned with our defensive abilities especially up the middle where it’s most important (minus JT). I just don’t see the big trade for anyone that has been mentioned. If there were any indication we had a shot at Reynolds – Oddubel would not be in camp. In order to fetch Bryant – we would need to clear some payroll. Didi (we would eat more than we would get) Segura? He is one of the few contact hitters we have.
What I’m most scared of is this lineup is built for “all or nothing”. Yes, we have alot of pop, but I fear we will be looking at alot of this scenerio again – score 4 in the first, 2 in the second and lose 8-6 because nobody could get a hit the rest of the game. Hate that.
Bohm – If we were to trade for Chapman, huge upgrade defensively and likely overall. That said, I think the kid will make the right adjustments after a sophmore slump. I believe he has the tools and we may regret letting him get away considering his cost control and ability. His defense is not good and up to him to work hard on it, but if we’re getting rid of poor defensive players……
Stott – excited but not ready to hand over SS opening day. Is he a gold glover? Are we willing to let him slide if HIS defense is sub par for a SS?
We still have all of our top tier prospects at this point and while some of us want more (big trade) I truly believe we need those prospects to step up and be part of the future if only for the sake of building some culture. Homegrown talent. Other than Veirling, Rhys, Bohm, Stott, Ranger and Nola – our entire team has come from other organizations. Not a good roadmap to establishing team culture. I think the team can be tweeked before the trade deadline but I don’t see the need at this point to try to make another huge splash right now. Use the $10 mil that is left and shore up the pitching staff. Go Phils!
Agree with CAPTAIN34 on Alec Bohm. This is just a theory. I have nothing (other than seeing some of him in college and watching his truncated rookie season) to back it up: Alec Bohm’s struggles in 2021 were more of a result of what was going on between his ears than anything else. He had a hard time putting a bad play behind him. He spent too much time thinking instead of just playing in rhythm. He put too much pressure on himself. One error led to another bad defensive play, and that led to a week’s worth of bad ABs. It happens with young players. Just like Cole Hamels in 2009, Bohm needed the season to end/a reboot. I’m not saying he’s ever going to be a GG 3Bman (probably won’t even be abv avg), but IMO he’s an avg fielder, and he’s a high(ish) OBP bat with 15-20 HR potential. That said … I would have still sent him to Oakland as part of a Matt Chapman package.
Agree. Burrell had a season like that after his big contract. Only winter could help him.
IMO the take that Bohm struggled hitting because of defense is wishful thinking by fans.
Alec Bohm’s hitting problems in 2021 was entirely about his struggles hitting the Fastball. Look at the pitch values chart: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alec-bohm/21618/stats?position=3B#pitch-values
MLB got the book that he can’t hit fastballs and so they increased the % of pitches that were fastballs to him from 32.5% to 38.1%. Add in his extreme ground ball tendency and you have a low batting average hitter.
I can’t understand why a fielding error would somehow show up only when he faced fastballs, but not when he faced changups, which he crushed last year. Particularly, his fielding errors really impact his hitting when he faces a 95+ mph pitch, because “on heaters that go 95 mph or faster — 37% of the fastballs he sees — he has only a .229 wOBA and a .063 ISO.” https://blogs.fangraphs.com/where-is-alec-bohms-power/
But even if, even if it really was his fielding that cause him to not be able to hit fastballs, I still don’t understand why this comforts people. He is a bad fielder because he is a below average athlete. I don’t see that changing.
We may have no choice at this point, but Bohm’s profile places the club in a difficult situation. Have patience that his bat rebounds from ’21? Okay. Then what about the glove? 3b? Playing many innings alongside another unproven glove in Stott (or Didi’s declining skills)? And on a team in win now mode?
Timing is everything. If this was 5 years ago, or even 5 years from now, then by all means, ride it out with the 25 year old. I find it difficult to believe that this front office would take such a risk NOW.
Yes, Didi and Camargo, perhaps even Segura can slide over to 3b. How about Vierling? But really, these are the alternatives?
Dombrowski CAN’T be done, despite the vibe Matt Gelb is getting. The defense has not been upgraded at all. The lineup is fine offensively, but enough to compensate for the deluge of opponents’ runs scored on bad defense? If anyone can answer any of these questions, I’m all ears.
Looks like, from 30K feet, that the Phillies overall team DRS will again be at the bottom of baseball.
Have to hope the bullpen can get many Ks.
Alec Bohm ⤵
2020 … Fielding% .957 (4 errors)@3B ➡ wFB 2.5
2021 … Fielding% .937 (15errors)@3B ➡ wFB -15.6
* wFB (runs above replacement vs FB)
He hit FBs better when he was playing better in the field. Is it unreasonable to believe he got down on himself/began lacking confidence?
Q: “I can’t understand why a fielding error would somehow show up only when he faced fastballs, but not when he faced changups”
Possible A: You’re judging that on a SSS. He saw only 8.4% CHs. A few cheap hits could be the difference.
Not saying the “thinking too much”/sophomore slump theory is for everybody. If you’ve been skeptical of Bohm from the beginning/time he was drafted, you’ll probably be less likely to give him the benefit of the doubt. And that’s OK. That’s you’re prerogative. You may end up being right.
Also could theorize when you’re slumping & thinking too much (instead of just playing naturally), it’s harder to adjust to heat than a pitch (CH) that is ~10 MPH slower.
“Is it unreasonable to believe he got down on himself/began lacking confidence?”
Imo, that is a biased take by a fan with a desired outcome. Not an objective view of the facts. You are conflating correlation with causality. Imo that take is illogical.
When a player is in the box, they don’t have time to think against a 98 mph fastball. simply react. see ball, hit ball. there is no thinking involved.
That is why Kevin Long has focused on shortening his swing this off-season. Bohm has a long swing (no pun intended).
As for small sample sizes, in 2020 he only played 44 games. But you weight that over what he did in a larger sample size in 2021?
When I see Alec Bohm play I see a big, slow twitch, below average athlete. I don’t see any quick twitch either with the bat or in the field. His fielding issues are when he goes in or out or moves to his left. That’s where his errors are. That is indicative of a poor athlete. IMO his issues on both sides of the ball stem from that root cause.
That was well said.
Spot On Hinkie. The kid wore his emotions on his sleeve. Hopefully he can brush that stuff off going forward. There is enough veteran leadership there to help him with that (probably already have). He needed a Calgon bath and Triple A probably didn’t help his head but hopefully the off season did. For the record Chapman over Bohm as well.
I can see a trade or two for “change of scenery”. Veirling, Mickey, Hasely, Rojas, Oddubel….Don’t know what it gets us but Hasely and Mickey are on the outside looking in. Rojas stays put and goes to work.
Yes, and Bohm’s struggle with ups and downs are typical of sophomore slumps. As I’ve stated, his pedigree and his numbers in minors and in mlb 2020 should not be thrown away for a typical sophomore slump. Patience is critical with top prospects when they get to majors. If he matures he’ll improve towards his typical. He should be the Phillies starting 3B. And I think FO agrees and it’s why they didn’t trade for Chapman.
Yeah, hopefully you’re right.
The issues with Bohm, really, are that he has essentially no value (or negative value) other than his bat and he has very little positional flexibility. So it puts more pressure on him to produce. But we’d all love to see him play passable third and become an above-average hitter. That would be a great development and, of course, it’s more than possible given his pedigree.
Bobby Dickerson is highly regarded in working with young infielders like Manny Machado. Bohm is not your typical 3b frame, body wise. Long and lanky. Passable defense would be a noble goal.
The athletic difference between Machado and Bohm is apples and oranges. Machado is an elite athlete. Bohm is a below average athlete. That is what you all seem to not get about Bohm. His issues fielding are because he is stiff and not a great athlete. When he has to move side to side or charge a ball that is where he commits errors. That’s because he is not agile.
Here is one example…On their PerfectGame profile pages from high school, Machado ran a 6.81 60-yard dash which is 90th percentile. Bohm ran a 7.28 which is 43rd percentile. That is just straight line speed. 43rd percentile. A really below average athlete. They don’t have side to side agility scores, but I guarantee that the difference between Machado and Bohm would be even more stark.
Be careful with citing Perfect Game measurables with players. Alot of players those tend to be from 1 showcase or game they played in and never went back a year later to update them after committing. I know this first hand, I have 2 players that committed to D1 and their PG measurables are over 3 years old and once they committed, we didn’t waste money going to any more.
Now saying that, yes Machado is far superior athlete to Bohm.
I understand and agree on PG measurables. Not the bible. but it doesn’t sound unreasonable to me that Machado is a 90th percentile athlete and Bohm is a 43rd percentile athlete. imo that is the core of Bohm’s problems. He just isn’t a great athlete compared to MLB players. Obviously great compared to an average joe like me. but when I watch him play defense I see a guy who struggles when he has to move laterally or charge a ball and throw. he just doesn’t have the ability to contort his body at 6-5. he is big and gangly imo. not an MLB 3rd baseman and I have been saying that for 2+ years on this blog.
v1…didn’t you have a write up on Bohm in May 2018, kind of like a pre-draft scouting analysis….just before the Rule 4 in June….and had some red-flags up on him then?.
Yes. My take on Bohm pre-draft was that I wouldn’t have drafted him at 3 because I didn’t like his power and there were questions on his ability to stick at 3rd base. Both have proven to be true. But I also openly admit every year that I never watch amateur players and am not a scout so I don’t know for sure. I just go by what scouts say and limited video clips.
I did like Madrigal pre-draft, and while he looks like he will be an elite contact guy, I am not sure that he will be a high WAR player at the MLB level. I also loved Matthew Liberatore and Brady Singer. I often talk about how much I love drafting pitchers in the first round.
Another thing that might be in play here is that it is good for a kid to endure some struggles. It is possible that had never happened with Bohm. I think it is way too early to give up on him. Go back to my time. Mike Schmidt did not exactly light it up at the beginning for Phils. As I recall he had a very good career for Phillies. Hopefully Bohm can refocus and learn to deal with the issues he had last year. 2020 came kind of easily for him especially on the hitting front.
I am glad to see Schwarber in the fold for the Phillies. He was a difference maker for IU back in his college days here at IU. Only time Hoosiers made the College World Series.
I am not totally against Soler as the final piece. He is young and we know he can perform under the bright lights. Phillies were interested in him when he first came over. He has outstanding power.
Yeah Don…Ruben was interested, but could not match Theo….Ruben did not want to commit the huge dollars for him ten years ago..Cubs gave him $30M as a 20-year old.
He is a big power guy for sure.
Takes on the Phillies with Schwarber coming from all directions…High Heat’s Chris Russo insists that Schwarber is strictly a DH and that Adam Haseley will play LF most of the time. Well, I don’t agree with that, but it does beg the question – WHAT WILL BECOME OF HASELEY & MONIAK in 2022, let alone the rest of their careers?
They will be in Allentown and hopefully our new batting instructors can teach them how to regain the swings and hitting performance, which once were good enough to make them first-round picks. If they don’t improve from what they did last year, they are only injury replacements.
Haseley and Moniak will probably be jerked back and forth (limit 5 times) from LHV if they are not included in a trade to come. Two spots needed (Schwarber and ?) on the 40. Who do you all believe will be the first two to go?
Sean Manaea being seriously shopped by Oakland, first with White Sox, now reportedly with Yankees. He’s the ideal lefty candidate for us, short term plug for MOR with all our rotation uncertainties.
Would you trade Bailey Falter and Erik Miller for 1 year of Manaea?
Hmm….think hard about it. Better if he’s extended a couple years, Hinkie. Hate to lose Miller for a short term proposition.
Yeah. I’m not giving a thumbs up or down on that. Just posting what it would probably cost. Billy Beane is going to want young/controllable/inexpensive arms (or maybe bats) w/some upside in return for Manaea.
Definitely not. We have 5 SPs when healthy, they’re only looking for SP depth now.
Someone tweeted an interesting, and rather troubling point…the Phillies will have a DH playing LF, 1B and 3B this season. That’s 1/3 of the lineup, with no legit gold gloves to offset except JTR, and he’s a definite maybe.
Harper, granted not a GG candidate in RF, but is not as much as a liability as he was when he was with the Nats.
Keeping an eye on the Freddie Freeman market…if LAD signs him, would that make Cody Bellinger available to be our lefthanded version of Kris Bryant, playing a decent CF and 1b? He’s getting $17M in arb this year…yes it would require some DD magic to get under the hallowed luxury tax threshold, perhaps unloading some major league salary in the trade.
Bellinger isn’t going anywhere. There’s a DH now.
So if we really want to go big….not sure what the Twins are doing as far as rebuilding or trying to compete but if they are in the rebuilding mode why not trade Buxton and Urschella and Tyler Rogers for Rojas, Abel or Painter, O’Hoppe or Marchan, Herrera and Bohm. That would look mighty good defensively for the Phils and set their lineup to compete for the title.
Hal…have you seen Buxton’s new contract he signed?
….seven-year, $100 million extension that will run thru 2028
….that could throw a wrench into the Phillies current payroll.
well said go big…..just feel like we need to win with Wheeler ,Harper et all during their productive years and your right that contract could be a burden but just yearning for some excitement in October.
The price for Schwarber was good….$20M AAV
However, he does have a few other warts , outside of his defense…that te Phillies I assume can live with.
One….Schwarber’s career RISP slash metric…..221/.354/.473 …24%-K….16%-BB. (30% of the BB metric were IBBs)…..people will need to expect some downturn at times.
He is not in the Harper RISP range right now
The upside…he was horrific 2017 thru 2020….but in 2021 he turned it all around.
So that is encouraging and maybe that will be the player the Phillies will get for the next 4 years..
Romus, Schwarber strikes me as the Kruk type, whose bat ages like wine, more power than Kruk with less slash, but improving as time goes on and tutelage under Kevin Long.
Rojas, can someone tell me about the kid . . . I didn’t follow much of the minors on here last year, mostly in the general discussions talking about the big club so I know nothing about him.
Eric….Fangraphs has him at 3……… “…. He boasts the best raw power/speed combination in the system, and some of the more exciting raw talent ingredients in pro baseball, but he has an odd swing resembling Victor Robles‘. Rojas’ confidence in his bat-to-ball skills may be partly to blame for his habit of expanding the zone, which hampers his ability to take advantage of his plus-plus max-effort bat speed. Despite this, Rojas hits the ball hard and often. His speed gives him a chance to be an impact center field defender, and if that happens, he’ll profile even if he’s a slugging center fielder with a low-OBP in the Drew Stubbs mold”.
Thank you very much, can always count on you.
Side plot here: I gotta wonder if Middleton and Harper discussed this FA period during their courtship. It’s been known that Harper and Bryant wanted to play together at some point, preferable at their peaks, hitting back to back in the majors. I still think it could happen because it is a rare scenario where money may not be the top factor. Depending on what was said, could be some bad blood brewing
On the same topic, i wonder how the CBA increasing the LTT impacted Middleton giving the Okay to go over the LTT. When it was 210, I can see him playing it to go over to 215-220. 230 , for another 20 mil is not chump change. Granted he’s a multi-billionaire but in perspective, you gotta wonder how each event plays into it.
I’m still hopeful they can make more impactful moves, and it may even be Bryant as a result of a collection of moves. Will see, I just hope Harper is onboard, because that could be a sensitive issue over the course of the season/years
Gotta think that Harper (if he was pushing hard for Bryant) may be slightly disappointed. Objectively he should realize that any 3 of the big FA bats available would be fine, but subjectively he may hope against hope that JM gives the okay, BUT Middleton and Dombrowski would have most certainly discussed the possibility already. So, if it happens, KB is already being pursued. If it doesn’t, and I seriously doubt it will, then this is it as for major additions.
I’m just going to say it … start the rumor mill… Phillies need a CF upgrade … 30 mil coming off the books next year …. Mike Trout rumors to Philly :). The Angels are sitting on their hands, trout has to be growing impatient. So I’ll take it upon myself to fire up the hot stove:
Psssst Mike Trout is unhappy in LA, pass it on!
What team makes the playoffs sooner the Angels or the Phillies?
Their both taking forever, that’s for sure. Gotta say Phils.
I don’t think there is any chance we go over the CBT. Unless it is July and we look like a WS contender, not just a possible Playoff team. I also think the major stuff is done. Finally, 2 of 4, Stott, Able, Painter, Rojas is much better than what the A’s got
No way Phillies we’re giving out that contract. Rockies got ‘em.
Kris Bryant goes to the Rockies
KB to Rockies
Man, the Rox cannot seem to get it right….7 years @ $26M AAV!
Bryant is 30 years old, those last 3 or so years could spell trouble for them.
Good luck with that contract. No thx. Would have gone 6/$132M with favor in joining Harper here. Oh well…
With Boras as his agent I guess one can expect a contract of that nature….Dave D did not want to go there….Schwarber came in $6M AAV less and two years less.
Seemed pretty. I like the deal we gave Schwarber
I didnt think he would get 7 yrs with that kind of money, wow
No problem from me going Schwarber and his contract vs Bryant and his! No way I give him that much! And I am all for spending $, that would have gotten a big No from me. Now let’s see what DD does to complete the team. There has to be a trade, doesn’t there?
Worried about starting pitching. Wheeler not at complex past 2 days after throwing Monday, canceled Thursday session. Falling behind. 3/5’s of rotation questionable.
Wheeler has the flu
Phew. Thank you for the update.
matt13…..he has plenty of trade chips available….so very good orange and black chips, others of the white, red and blue variety.
And it is not like him to hold them for long…perhaps the length of the lockout threw him off kilter.
I read a Matt Gelb article in the Athletic about the decision to platoon in CF. They had their eyes on Schwarber for a while, we all knew that. But, while in Florida waiting for the new CBA, a lot of upper echelon organization guys fell in love with Rojas, making him almost untouchable in a trade, with an ETA of sometime next season. Do you guys have a similar view? I have always read great reports on him.
matt13…..I see him starting either at Jersey Shore or Reading…..one way or another, but he will be in Reading before August, unless he gets injured….and possibly @ LHV in Sept.
As for ETA….optimistically, likely mid-2023
Rojas is one who could put himself on the fast train to Philly with a good minor league season and possibly go to Arizona Fall League and be vying for the CF job next spring.
Electric. I saw him in one spring training game last year and could barely believe my eyes. His ceiling is about as high as it gets. The tools are amazing, I’m a big fan.
Adonis Medina a waiver claim by Pirates! I once was very high on him, and will follow him to see if the Pirates unlock his stuff. We need another SP insurance option.
A shame we didn’t cash in on his “trade potential”. I think a god few of us wants to keep him over sixto in the realmuto trade
Adonis Medina has been claimed by the other Pennsylvania baseball team.
Just a question. Why is there so much difference between the Rizzo and Bryant contracts?
Is there a major age difference between them. I would much prefer to be on the hook for 32M instead of 182M. Wow.
Rizzo going into his age 32 season vs 30 for Bryant. Bryant coming of a 3.3 rWAR year, Rizzo coming off a 1.7 rWAR year. Bryant can sort-of play two positions, Rizzo not so much.
And, oh yeah, the Rockies are idiots. This is, by far, the worst contract of the off-season. Sooooo glad the Phillies tapped out on the Bryant hunt.
It reminded me of when the Rockies signed a nearly valueless Ian Desmond to a huge contract. At the time I thought, “what am I missing.” The answer was – nothing. The Rockies are plain foolish.
Agreed Catch. This makes no sense for the Rockies and it’s an overpay in both years and AAV.
Man…..I kinda feel sorry for Bryant (but not really, he got paid), but Colorado is baseball purgatory. I feel like he just went for the money. That’s a shame. Alot of things can happen but….IDK…I hope he likes nature…or has an opt out. SMH.
I guess Colorado is closest to Las Vegas.
But still doesn’t explain why the Rockies did this.
Colorado has a storied history of buying one singular expensive player in FA for the explicit intention to tell their fans they’re trying (and thus they should buy season tickets).
It’s their third most popular tactic, right behind selling at the deadline and overpaying for marginal pitchers who will inexplicably post 5+ ERAs in Coors.
Dan O’ Dowd probably agrees with that assessment…..ie Mike Hampton
He has mentioned it a few times over the years.
Hey…you win some, you lose some.
One thing for sure…Bryant will be able to pad his offensive metrics playing on the ‘moon’ in Coors Field.
i rather be in Colorado close to home, then phillies, both are not going to win championship, so take the money and be close to home, 700 miles compare to 3000 miles,
Ripken said deal has no trade. Just does not make sense. But it is someone elses money so they can spend 182 million however they like. Seems like all other teams bailed out but who ran it up that high to begin with? Phillies? If only 2 years age difference Yanks got a steal on Rizzo. Ripken was high on the Phils and Schwarber.
Freddie to the Dodgers @ 6/$162M, and again, in contrast to the awful Rox-Bryant deal, LAD shows the rest of the league that they’re so much better at this. With all due respect to KB as a player, Freeman will have greater impact during their respective tenures with each ball club, and at a much better price.
I honestly do not understand what the Braves did here. Based on the Olsen package, which was massive prospect haul), I expected Freddie’s contract to be astronomical. They gave Olsen $168m over 8 years. so for basically the same money over 2 fewer years, they gave up 3 exceptional prospects. Makes no sense to me. And IMO, Freddie is better than Olsen. Seems like a bad decision by the Braves to me, but good for us Phillies fans.
On the Dodger’s side, I assume they now want to trade Muncey. I don’t really think it makes a ton of sense for the Dodgers. Muncey was a 4.9 WAR player last year on an $9m contract. His contract is only $11m this year. His prior two full seasons (ignoring the shortened 2020 season) he had a 4.7 and 5.2 WAR season. That is really, really good. To put that in perspective, over those same 3 seasons Freddie’s WAR was 4.5, 3.9 and 5.2. Muncey actually had a better WAR the past 3 seasons and was significantly cheaper. So I don’t really get the point on the Dodgers side either. Seems like star chasing, but Muncey providing that value for that contract is exceptional surplus value. I have to assume they have a deal worked out for Muncey to get help in another position.
Muncey indicated yesterday he may be headed to a position change…2B, according to what they implied to him if Freeman was signed.
Who knows…..LAD still can package him.
As for the Braves….perhaps age was the factor between Freeman and Olson.
Oldtime Dodger GM Branch Rickey said…’better to move a player one year earlier, than one year late’
After I wrote that post, I remembered that the NL has the DH now, so Muncey can be the DH if they want to keep him.
As good as Freeman was last year, Olson was better and, if you believe in aging curves, he is projected to be quite a bit better than Freeman going forward. Olson is also on a cheaper contract for a longer term. So the question is whether the loss of those prospects and a franchise icon was worth the cheaper cost of Olson, more contract years and perhaps slightly better projected performance. I don’t know. I would have offered Freeman a $10-12 m buyout on the 6th option year – you would think that could get it done. They gave up a lot for a marginal savings and marginal performance advantage.
I gotta admit, I am pretty stunned the braves let Freeman walk. He was just as important to them as Chipper Jones. Winning the MVP, then being a big piece in them winning the WS. He should be a brave still. On a baseball move, I can see it making sense in Terms of age, as it protects them on the backend of the deal. That said, I bet freeman ages better than Olson. Freeman is a rare combination of contact hitter & power, who can walk. He hits his pitch. Glad he’s off the braves. That’s for sure. I got nervous as hell everytime he came up to bat with RISP. Lol Neris vs Freeman with game on the line … felt like it was an automatic loss. Wish the Phillies signed him. Hellva ballplayer
Tac3….did you know, Olson broke a HR record last year?
Most HRs off a LHP from a LHB in one season…22….broke Bobby Bonds and Ken Griffey’s record of 21.
So if a team thinks a LOOGY is the answer against his bat…they may have to re-think that plan.
So far I would give the Phillies a B- grade for this offseason. Schwarber is an upgrade over Cutch, and they have improved the bullpen. But I doubt anyone (including the front office) thinks they have made enough moves to compete with the big boys.
But there is one more big move that the Phillies can make…Trade Segura to free up his $15m and combined with the $10m that they have left below the cap (so $25m aav left), sign Carlos Correa. Then use a platoon of Didi and Stott at second base. When Didi comes off the books next year, the combo of Correa and Stott up the middle averages out to only $13m per player. Very reasonable.
With one big move, you materially improve the infield defense and add another big bat in the middle of the lineup. Imagine this lineup:
6. CF platoon
7. 2B platoon
That is a team that can compete if they stay healthy.
Story is still out there vs Correa,
….less AAV $$$ and less years ..it means it meets Middleton’s thinking.. (tic0
I am personally not a big fan of Story. Imo Correa is materially better than Story. I have significant concerns about Story’s bat.
Yeah…his splits with the Coors Field effect are pretty significant
probably a reason he is still out there.
Though if the Astros cannot get Correa back, I can see them latching onto Story.
Right. That is over a large sample size. Not very exciting imo.
Plus, behind the scenes there is something/or was with Story’s arm. He had trouble throwing and had to change arm angles last year. Is it resolved ? Jury is out on – even his fielding.
v1, as usual, you make sense, however, I don’t think there is any chance that we are in on Correa. The BP is till up in the air, as both Familia and Hand are coming off less than stellar seasons. Hand went away from his Slider and got his FB hammered, had a huge drop in Ks and elevated BBs, and Familia also gave up to many BBs and too many HRs. I hope they rebound, but this is us, remember, so it is better to prepare pessimistically. We haven’t seen that trademark DD trade yet, but I am not sure we will see one until July.
There has to be another big move coming. DD said that he has to improve the infield defense at the end of last year. He hasn’t done that. I can’t believe that DD is banking on a turn around by Bohm and Didi/Stott to improve the defense. I can’t believe that is his plan. There has to be another big move that he is working on.
Segura has real trade value. He has a good contract and is a very productive player. We can get a BP arm or two for him.
There is no way that DD actually thinks the current team will compete for an NL Pennant. No chance. He has to be working on something big.
Can’t disagree. The current construction of this team, the defense is awful. It will cost you games, and it’s harder to measure than BA & Pitching stats. For the Phils to compete, they need Correra. I almost feel that even if they did add him, the team still has holes that could keep them out of the playoffs
I don’t see the logic in trading Segura for a bullpen arm. They’re good enough to get into the playoffs with the expanded field and they’re probably saving cash and hoping the farm takes a leap nationally by the deadline where they’ll address the bullpen if needed and possibly the infield. They really just need a power hitting bench bat to start at DH and rotate the corners when Harper and Schwarber DH.
Maybe a big move next offseason when you can move on from Segura and Didi up the middle and remake the bullpen again. Likewise they’re going to have to replace or extend 2/5 of the rotation & possiblly 3 if Nola continues to underwhelm.
How can you not “see” the logic? You may disagree with it, but I explained it plainly.
1. Massive improvement in defense to swap the platoon of Didi/Stott at short and Segura at 2nd, with Correa as SS and the platoon at second.
2. Massive improvement in the lineup.
3. We still need BP arms
If your argument is that we should be happy squeaking into the bottom of the playoffs without a real shot to compete, then we will just have to agree to disagree on what the goal should be.
I see us having a 3 year window to really compete and then we are in trouble. Realmuto, Harper, Nola, Schwarber and Wheeler are in their prime right now. Now is the time to go all in. Correa is a true difference maker. A middle of the order bat and an elite shortstop.
I don’t see the logic because I don’t think Segura would bring back a bullpen arm better than anything we have currently. MAYBE Kimbrel but at that point the salary is a wash and you’re not fitting Correa in under the tax and leaving room at the deadline. We know they’re not going over the tax.
I don’t think that kind of move is necessary to make them a championship contender. I think they go into this season with what they have (although I think they need another part time outfielder) and see what happens. To “have a real shot to compete” they need internal improvement which can be augmented at the deadline.
I hear Colorado is willing to listen to offers on Bryant?🤣Sorry…..per Jon Heyman
MLB has Phils ranked #2 as landing spot for Correa. Astros, Phils, Yankees. He has to go somewhere.
All indications point to Correa rejoining the Astros, unless those reports are an agent’s doing…can’t see him coming here.
I just found that article after seeing your comment. I swear that I hadn’t seen it before…but wow, he is making the same point as I am.
Sold! If Middleton would okay going over the cap, it would likely be for one year only. That’s if DD can’t make space now, which he probably can’t, realistically. Remember, Segura has to approve any trade. So, I would offer Correa 10/$250M, $25M AAV…and that overage is erased when Didi, Segura, Gibson, et al, are off the books. C’mon Johnny Cigars, let DD loo$e.
At this point, who is the backup SS? Camargo plays 3B. If it’s Maton, he can play 2B, 3B, as well as his natural SS position. With Luke Williams, you have a below average infielder who could also play OF.
My hope would be that Kingery is back all the way from his injury and could put the bat on the ball better than when he left. He is the superior defender at all infield positions and he plays a respectable OF in all 3 positions.
Of course, all of what I wrote is probably moot if Stott makes the team out of spring training. Thoughts?
As an old Jetpax supporter, nothing more I’d like to see than Kingery regain his profile as a future first division 2b. Hope he excels this spring…
Unless Dombrowski moves him, Didi will probably assume a utlity role behind SS and 3b, and DH on a semi-regular basis. I agree with v1 above that there has to be a major trade in the works. I don’t think Odubel is etched in CF, even in a platoon. The cell towers must be surging with trade talks.
The Giants signed lefty Matthew Boyd @1/$5.2M….I would have rather gotten him at that rate than either Familia or Hand. Makes you wonder who’s monitoring the free agent market.
mark…he cannot pitch again until June/July possibly…if everything turns out well in his rehab. So that price is for roughly a half-season worth of duties.
Oh ok, Romus…thanks for that, I wasn’t aware.
Good info to consider when your scheming up trades. Looks like the new CBA kept DD from making the Kiermaier trade: back loaded contracts are going to be an issue going forward
Matt Gelb pointed out something I didn’t know, with regard to Kiermaier-Phillies: “The calculus changed with the new collective bargaining agreement. A small accounting wrinkle to contracts that are traded had a direct effect on a player like Kiermaier. He is signed to a six-year, $53 million deal, which means his average annual value is $8.83 million. However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).
Had the Phillies acquired Kiermaier in a trade, he would have counted for $14.67 million against the luxury tax payroll in 2022. That number might have prevented the Phillies — operating on a budget designed not to pay tax — from other moves. They did not value Kiermaier at that rate, along with whatever prospect capital it would have cost. So, they explored other options for center field.”
Assuming it allows us to sign Correa, I agree Segura is the obvious choice to trade. Didi would be clearly be ideal, but there’s no shot we can trade away enough of his contract to justify it.
So with that in mind, we need to find a team to match up with. It needs to be a team that has playoff aspirations and money to spend with a need at 2B. Based on last year’s performances of 2B players and free agent activity of teams, I think the most likely candidates would be the Angels, Mariners, Nats, Cards, and White Sox.
For the Angels, I’m not sure how much more they’re willing to spend, and I’m also unclear about how strongly they feel about their in-house options. Fletcher has one really good (shortened) offensive year in 2020, but otherwise is very replaceable. But they also have a young guy in Stefanic who they may think is the real deal, and he doesn’t seem like he needs any more time decimating minor league pitchers. Plus their relief corps isn’t exactly overflowing with assets. I can’t imagine they’d give us Iglesias, so they don’t seem like a perfect fit.
The Mariners on paper seem like a much better trade partner; they’re making moves with the intention of making the playoffs, their in-house options for 2B aren’t great, and they churn out pitchers almost as often as the Guardians. However… they traded Segura to us in the first place. Granted, they were in a much different position then than they are now, but it’s unclear if they would even want him back. If they are interested, though, Anthony Misiewicz is a potential target. He’s still pretty young and under control until 2026, but he’s also not a flame thrower nor a closer, so he could potentially be had. Plus he’s pretty stingy on walks for a reliever, and if he continues inducing ground balls like he did last year he should be fine as a middle inning guy for us.
The Nats seem the least likely to me. While they traded away their 2B options last year, they do have Luis Garcia on his way, and they signed our old friend Cesar to presumably act as a stop-gap. Plus it would be an in-division trade which we know is rare. It happens, and we’ve traded with them before. But not when we were trying to directly compete with them for a playoff berth. Can’t see this one working out.
The Cards also seem unlikely, but less so than the Nats. Their offense at 2B last year was downright miserable and they’ve got almost more relievers than they can use… but they also have Gorman. I gotta imagine their plan is to use him at 2B since, well… Arenado… The only real question is if they think he’s ready. He slowed down a bit in AAA last year, but he was still good. On the other hand, they may want him to get more seasoning since he’s still not even 22 yet and he missed out on development in 2020. I personally doubt they’re looking to add a 2B, but if they are someone like Segura who’s on a 1-year-plus-an-option contract would be ideal to bridge the gap without blocking their top prospect. So it just comes down to if they want that extra offense right away or if they’re willing to either let Gorman jump in the deep end or stick with their defense-first options. If the teams do line up, there are a few names worth asking for. I doubt we’d be able to get a Jordan Hicks, or Jack Flaherty. But they might be more willing to give up Junior Fernandez or Johan Oviedo, who are both young guys with at least 2 above-average pitches that just haven’t put it together in the majors as of yet.
The White Sox are perhaps the most intriguing team here. They have a clear need at 2B (seeing as the two players who spent more than 50 innings at the spot for them last year are both gone and their prospects are either far away and/or not 2B by trade), and they are very obviously going for it. They signed Josh Harrison, but he’s not exactly what I’d consider a starter on a contending club. And they had an absolutely great RP unit last year. Where things get a little murky, though, is how much money they’re willing to take on. There was already a lot of noise about them trying to move Kimbrel’s contract, and taking that back would defeat the purpose of us trading Segura in the first place. They’ve got plenty of other potential targets for us, but I’m just not sure the White Sox are willing to take on much in terms of payroll. If they are, Kimbrel could potentially be part of the return. But I just don’t know how to balance that out whilst allowing us the flexibility to sign Correa. Still, this is definitely a team to keep in mind for this scenario.
All in all, I’d say there isn’t really a clear-cut avenue for us to trade Segura. But the options are there, and this is what DD does. So it’s a possibility for sure.
I like the WSox option.
They are ready to take a more advance approach to get further in the play-offs.
Maybe our ole buddy Gabe may be willing to take him on….he likes his productive veterans….not sure if Solano is their answer. Segura does have a little versatility. around the infield.
The biggest key to moving Segura is finding a suitable trade partner who he would agree to join, a legitimate contender, and both the White Sox and Giants should fit the bill.
Solano signed with the Reds
That can be a good thing …..now wonder if the Giants have someone there.
Tommy LaStella is likely their 2B for this season
Ok, thanks for that info,
…..though I would think Segura has more of an offensive upside and probably edges him out on defense.
My hope is that Dombrowski would sit down with Middleton and spell out the opportunity of acquiring a franchise changing player like Correa, who would vastly improve the overall defense immediately, and remove any undue pressure on Stott to reach an acceptable plateau for a rookie at a premium position. Let the kid grow into his own on a team in win now mode.
Scratch Seattle. They traded to get Adam Frazier in November to be their second baseman.
Good point, forgot they made that trade and for whatever reason neither place I checked had him on their roster.
Something I did not know re: our CF options. It seems that the new CBA called for a recalculation of a traded player’s contract for LT purposes after he is traded. So, for instance, Kiermaier, instead of counting $8.8M would have counted about $14.5M. After that, it seems, Herrera seemed like a much better option, and the front office, which we discussed the other day, fell in love with Rojas. On another note, does anyone feel that we are not the #3 team in our Division? And, I am counting on Wheeler and Ranger only being slightly behind. I just don’t know if the big trade happens before the end of ST, or July.
…and this would also be a multitasking trick for DD, working with Segura and the trade partner while negotiating with Correa’s reps simultaneously at a unique moment when spring camps are underway and opening day is only a few weeks away…
Bryce , subtlety, mentioned it yesterday……something to the effect….’we have to keep up with the Mets and Braves since they have got better’
So apparently he is expecting, or maybe hoping, more is to come from the front office.
‘subtly’…not whatever autocorrect spit out.
I have to believe that DD looks at the Club, and doesn’t see it as better than we do. He also has a salary cap, and with $10M to spare, less really because they want flexibility for later in the season, so probably $7.5M, there is not much room for more than a bench player and another BP arm. Unless, of course, the Segura trade occurs. But that leaves us short a pretty productive player. Again, Middleton can say I am just as much a big time guy as Mark Walter and Steve Cohen. That’s always been my wish, and Correa pretty much elevates us to the Braves and Mets level.
matt13…if Dave D has to trade Segura to free up money….you can bet he will have to augment the trade with prospects….Luis Garcia for one comes to mind, along with IMO, two LHV/Reading pitchers who are close to the majors.
This off-season has been a kick in the nuts. Between the slow methodical approach, to the strike, and now sending that after getting some top players…. This team still is likely not Good enough to make the playoffs. I’m not demanding that Middleton go past the LTT, I think it makes sense when the team is built up. Adding Correra changed a lot for this team, with Dodo’s money falling off next year & the LTT escalation, it allows them to add the pieces around the margins. Then factor in the arrival of some top arms … the opportunity is there… I just hope that Middleton is an “opportunist” … if they don’t sign Correra, we are looking 3rd at best, and possibly 4th. What’s the point of spending 218 million and being 3rd? Spend 230, and massively increase your chance of being in the playoffs … with a farm system rising up. Either they contribute or you trade for a reynolds as the final piece
Romus, I’m on it…
Kendall Graveman rhrp
WHITE SOX get:
Jean Segura 2b
Francisco Morales rhp
Simon Muziotti of
Ethan Lindow lhp
I am in with that.
According to Jon Morosi, Nick Castellanos is down to the Phillies and Marlins.
Listening to Ben Davis….is very high on Castellanos….’just gets out of bed and hits’
Where would Castellanos play ? DH ?
In this case, I would platoon him with Schwarber in LF/DH….Hoskins would probably get the lion’s share of time at 1b, which is no big deal, or Schwarber could manage 1b when Hoskins is DH. Late inning defense would be most welcome on this roster…just sayin’.
I would offer Castellanos 5/$100M. If Miami is the only rival suitor, I doubt they beat that offer. Otherwise I would bump the offer to 6 years. That bat should play well into his 30s.
Lets not forget….to keep JTR’s bat in the game and provide him a breather, he will need to be DHed at times
Romus, it appears the Phillies may be leading the league in DH hitters. Maybe they will take volunteers to go out into the field. LOL.
It does appear that way right now Don.
Joe G. will need a rotational lineup card of DH candidates every game.
Romus, back in the day Eddie Feiner only needed 4 fielders for years with the King and his Court. They actually played one of the teams I played on but I had to miss the game. Maybe Joe can have guys take turns going out to field each inning. The young travel teams do this all the time. LOL
Joe will need to look closely at the opposing teams spray charts….and shift his OF!
Where would that money come from? Also, I will be interested in seeing who fares better. Archie Bradley and Ryan Tepera with the Angels, or Familia and Hand with us? 2 teams with MVP players and no Playoff appearances, we, however, have the better fan base!
UGH- Ryan Tepera to Angels – I was hoping he was the last bp piece ! Albeit, 2 years at 14 mill is alot. He was one of the best available.
Any thoughts to the utilization of the shift; how does this play into the infielders fielding abilities? Half the time Bohm is playing “elsewhere”.
LOL. Dombrowski is attempting to put together the worst fielding squad in the history of MLB. I mean the Phillies may score 8 runs per game, while their defense allows 5 or 6 unearned runs the other way. This should be entertaining.
Probably just driving the price up on the Marlins. It sure would be fun to watch, but I hope DD knows that you still gotta catch the ball
Maybe Middleton sees going over the cap with Castellanos a wash because he’ll make up the difference when the concession stands stay open an extra hour or so each night. 2022 Phillies games should end about 11:30 most nights.
Hinkie. That is way beyond funny. They have been late the last few years. OMG you could be right. Keep the Philly steaks on and hot dogs rolling as well.
Yeah, Don. I’m predicting a lot 4 hour games. mucho hitting and mucho poor defensive plays.
Mychal Givens, $3.5M with a $1.5M buyout on second year option. Another RP I would have liked. I still think we need another one.
if only 1 more BP arm was sufficient. Every year recently Phils say they have addressed BP issues. Every year recently that remains the Achilles heal of this team. I lost track long ago how many nights I stayed up late with Phils leading late only to come up short. At least Workman is off the market. He may have dropped off more than any pitcher in recent history after arriving in Philly. I think he had saved something like 34 of 38 games before he arrived.
Sooo … maybe Middleton does give the thumbs to go over the 230 million mark …
Correra or Castellanos ?
I’d lose it if they went correra, then emptied the farm to trade for Reynolds. Seems slightly possible today, but I’m not holding my breath. Seems like that fixes a lot of issues.
Great story on Dick Allen on MLB.com
I had a dream…
On the same day (I don’t know, let’s say Friday March 18 2022) the Phillies signed Carlos Correa while Dave Dombrowski also orchestrated a trade for Bryan Reynolds, giving up Alec Bohm, Ranger Suarez (OUCH!), Johan Rojas, Ethan Wilson and Andrew Painter. I suddenly saw Bryson Stott taking reps at 3b…and Mick Abel was still in camp.
Flash forward to opening day…
Bryan Reynolds cf
JT Realmuto c
Bryce Harper rf
Carlos Correa ss
Kyle Schwarber dh
Rhys Hoskins 1b
Bryson Stott 3b
Jean Segura 2b
Odubel Herrera lf
…with a revitalized Aaron Nola on the mound.
Sorry but I don’t support trading all those prospects and young mlb’s. The idea of going over the cap And still having to gut the system would be a failure by DD, imo. And what would we trade at trade deadline, for everyone here will insist we trade “if we’re serious about winning.”
I say keep buying f/a’s. This is the first time in >10 years we have an improving farm so try keep most of it for now.
John, as of right now. This scenario is very possible. I believe DD has laid out the moves to Middleton. Now, doesn’t mean it’s there, and I don’t think Suarez is going to be included in the reynolds trade but … Correra signing & Reynolds trade … that’s changing the Phillies trajectory. Puts them in the top few teams of the league, especially if you believe the bullpen is good shape until the eventual trade deadline upgrade. I like that move better, since BP arms are so hit or miss every year. Might as well pick them when you know it’s an “on year”
Is a great start to trading for reynolds. They can work out the rest
Hinkie made a comment above indicating that he believes that Bohm’s struggles hitting last year were because of his fielding. I countered that I didn’t buy that argument because his struggles were entirely in hitting the fastball. He was fine hitting off-speed pitches. He particularly struggled hitting 95+ mph fastballs. I have thought about this exchange more and upon reflection, I was too quick to dismiss this take.
In reading articles this off-season about Kevin Long’s changes to Bohm’s swing, they all talk about Long wanting to shorten Bohm’s swing. That his swing got long (no pun intended), and that is why he struggled with the fastball. He moved his hands in and focused all off-season on being shorter to the ball.
It is very logical, and likely that Bohm’s struggles in the field made him want to try harder at the plate. That he tried to hit more homers and that is what got his swing to be long. That is a very reasonable explanation. If that truly was the cause then two thoughts:
1. Kevin Long’s adjustments should help.
2. Alec needs to be mentally tougher. Baseball is a game of failure. Bohm is never and I mean never going to be even league average defender. He will always struggle at 3B defensively imo. He needs to get past it and not let it affect his hitting. The model for this is Tatis, Jr. He makes a ton of errors and has a poor fielding %. But he never lets that impact his hitting.
After more reflection, I am hopeful that Kevin Long’s adjustments to shorten Bohm’s swings impact his production. As I have said before, we desperately need Bohm to be a dude. Our organization can’t keep buying mega free agents to cover for draft and develop failures. I really hope that Bohm has a good hitting season. With the DH now in the NL, I am less concerned about where he plays defensively. But he needs to hit. We need him badly.
I think it’s less that he’s not mentally tough and more that he’s a young man experiencing adversity for the first time (on the baseball field, I can’t comment on his struggles or lack thereof off of it). It’s hard to know how to handle a new situation, and even harder to know how to fix it when new things keep getting thrown at you. There’s a reason sophomore slumps are recognized as a common occurrence.
So yeah, if Long had helped him get a grasp of the things he was doing that he shouldn’t be, Bohm can very easily bounce back. It’s worth noting that as a freshman in college, many scouts noted that Bohm’s swing was long and sometimes jerky. It wasn’t until the next year where he shortened it and began showing his better bat control. So it’s entirely possible his struggles defensively caused him to revert to his original swing rather than his learned swing.
Obviously this is all (hopeful) speculation. But I think it’s important to not give up on players (especially young ones) after one bad year. Many things can cause a bad year. It doesn’t mean that’s who they are as a player. Just ask Cole Hamels.
Kevin Long could end up being the Phillies’ biggest offseason acquisition.
Thanks for recognizing that theory as a possible explanation for Bohm’s struggles, v1. IMO the difference in the way he looked between his rookie season and his 2nd year was just too drastic to believe something wasn’t bothering him. We never heard anything about a possible injury (physical). It’s my speculation it was a mental thing. I’ve posted a few times in the past the team should suggest a sports psychologist to Alec.
And I agree … the Phillies absolutely need contributions this season from some of their young players (Bohm/Stott/Vierling/Falter).
I was too quick to dismiss your point and I apologize. I reflected on it more and it is not only possible it seems likely that Bohm pressed with his bat to try to overcome his defensive mistakes. great hitters always say that they don’t try to hit homers. Just try to be on time and on plane.
That said, I do not have much confidence that his fielding will improve. I expect him to be a below average third baseman for his career. I just don’t think that he has the body type to be a good infielder. But as I said above, it is still a good outcome is if he is a good hitter as a DH. Not exactly what you want from 3rd overall pick, but still productive. Can’t go backwards.
Hopefully we can get a Mulligan for past 2 seasons and start a REAL baseball season today. Let’s see how everyone plays without Covid in their ears every minute. Only caveat is the abbreviated ST, so maybe another Mulligan, Arg!
Not buying the Castellanos rumor. Seems like it’s only to drive up the price for Miami.
I’m not sure how necessary that is considering the Marlins speculatively drove Jeter out of town because of them backing down on their promise to spend.
I don’t think Castellanos is a great fit for our club (the bat fits on any team, obviously, but we are seriously hurting for some defensive ability at the moment). But it’s worth noting that the Phils aren’t typically involved in rumors at all, and when they are it’s usually serious (assuming the rumors come from actual baseball sources, of course).
Which is not to say that I think we sign him. But from the outside looking in it doesn’t seem like feigning interest is one of the Phillies’ plays, and for whatever reason (fear that they’ll outright deny it, perhaps) agents don’t typically use them for leverage either unless it’s legitimate.
They are still in on Correra and Castellanos
My logic is:
They are in on Castellanos to keep Correra in check with his price demand
Castellanos is the fall back to missing on correra, team defense reasons
Meanwhile, Correra is playing HOU vs PHI the price up, he signs with the highest bidder. NYY maybe in on this too but .. will see. Going to shake out within the week.
This is a key moment for Middleton/DD. Going correra & making that all in trade … reynolds/Mullins … let’s see. I hope he sees it
I don’t know a thing, and I put nothing past DD … but … I will be (pleasantly) shocked if Carlos Correa is wearing red pinstripes in 2022.
Then there is Story…..when you least expect it, Phillies do come out of nowhere at times. Story rejected playing CF, but may be open to 3B, if ss is not available.
His away splits from Coors are mediocre to abysmal….but at the Philly Bank he did well in a SSS..
Yes, Romus. Probably a better chance of Trevor Story playing here than Carlos Correa. I’d rate Story possible, yet unlikely to be a Phillie.
Trevor Story career slash at Coors Field: .304/.370/.624
Trevor Story career slash at CBP: .310/.356/.586 (It’s a SSS, but it is what it is)
Updated Trevor Story at Coors: .303/.369/.603
Trevor Story away from Coors: .241/.310/.442
Trevor Story at CBP: .310/.356/.586
Story excited me at one time. But there are too many variables with him. Nice player but probably overpriced at this point.
Let’s PLAY BALL! Finally.
Look at that Hinkie, they are “showcasing” Rojas
Yeah. I hope he’s in tomorrow’s LU again. That game will be televised.
Finally reading box scores from yesterday’s games, back to real games. Phillies at Tigers today on MLB TV thru Tigers network.
MLB top 100 list is out:
Great news … the Braves only have 1 prospect in the top 100. Yes! Marlins have 6, with 2 being at the mlb levels. #58 is sixto. Most of their prospects are RHP. The Mets in the middle with 3. #10 is a catcher, #27 & 78. A 3B/OF & SS. The nats don’t seem to have squat for their rebuild.
The pirates have 6. Might be hard to trade with them. For our prospects to top theirs.
I think that signing Castellanos (assuming a $20m AAV), would be a bad allocation of capital for the Phillies. Would have been fine if they got him instead of Schwarber. Personally, I am indifferent on either of those guys. But getting both, and putting $40m per year into two terrible defenders would be a bad decision imo. Their bats will overcome a lot of defensive flaws, but imo that is not the best way to build a team.
As I said before, I would much rather see them go all in on Correa and help a position of need. I would attach a good (not great) prospect to Didi to ship him out and save money to re-allocate to Correa. Correa’s AAV will be more than Castellanos. But he helps with his bat and his glove.
Agree that if they are looking at spending $20m AAV Castellanos they would be much better committing $30M AAV for a Correa that would also fill a defensive need.
Getting bats always helps but at some point you do have to catch the ball and pitch.
Agreed. The Phillies are a much better team with correra than castellanos. The “rebuild” is more sustainable with correra as well. If they sign Nick C., it’s a great bat but they still gotta tinker with the defense on a limited budget. I gottta believe the plan has been to add correra. He’s gotta want to sign here though. Schwarber could be the bait, like realmuto was for harper.
Seeing how the team gets cemented into a horrible defense with Castellnos. You almost want to pass and save that bullet for next FA. still, it’s hard to pass up adding such a productive bat. Both schwarber & castellanos were out hurt last season, so you could theoretically project Better numbers from both.
Either way I have faith in DD, it’s nice having a real GM again
Agreed. This is already/still a lousy defensive team. Throwing Castellanos into the mix is just a catastrophe waiting to happen in the field with every ball put in play. That said (and I mentioned above), I will be shocked if Correa ends up here.
Don’t get me wrong, watching the Phillies score 9 runs a night with Castellanos in the LU would be fun … but … watching that swiss cheese defense allow 4 or 5 unearned runs a night would be frustrating. You guys enjoy four hour games?
Hey guys … Hinkie doesn’t like walkoff homeruns! 🙂
I really dislike blown 9thing saves. The excitement of extra inning games is over for me. The less the better.
It does seem like things will play out for all of this soon enough now. I am kinda surprised some of the big guys are still out there at this point. Like Hinkie saiid I think maybe this will bring price down some. I do think Phillies will get one of Correa or Castellanos. I have No idea which one. It is nice to see games starting to be played.
If the Phillies are even considering/pursuing either Castellanos or Correa, I have to think that DD is working the lines to trade either Segura or Didi as a precursive move.
Yup. I think it’s Segura. Easier to trade. Didi will fall off the books next year. Hard to lose him, but … with the other moves mentioned, we should all be good with it
On a side note, Boras maybe the Phillies best new friend.
I’m ready to see another FA signing, whether it be Castellanos or Correa, preference for the latter but looking like the former. With the latest rumor on Castellanos, it would be hard to get all of the big bats in the lineup assuming you still want to rotate the DH with some regularity.
Do either Schwarber or Castellanos have any defensive flexibility? Can Schwarber play first? Can either play RF? I know these guys (and this team) are horrid defensively, but we still need to keep these hitters fresh so they can live up to their offensive potential even while being total sucks on the defensive side.
If the Phillies are going to go over the CBT, they should go big and get both Correa and Castellanos!
Per MLBTR, Phil’s in serious pursuit of cadtellanos… lol DD taking the “chick’s dig the long ball” saying a little too far.
Well crap, Technically can’t Harper play CF? If you’re going that bad with the defense, might as flex the bats … assuming we they tra
CF – Harper
LF – Castellanos
1B – Hoskins
3B – Didi
SS – Stott
2B – Maton,Kingery…. Segura if not traded. Bump him to the lead off spot
Well, now that Jim Salisbury has joined Stark and Morosi in the report that contract talks are progressing, the idea being Castellanos is the right opportunity for Middleton to go over the cap, and pushing Schwarber to DH, I say that 5/$100M will get it done.
To clarify, I’m – kidding but … who knows at this point!
When the league sent out the memo on the NL adopting the DH full time, did the Phillies get the idea that there would be more than one in effect?
Anyway, flexibility is still a good thing. Bohm can DH and be spelled by Didi at 3b, Segura can move to 3b on occasion so that Didi could play SS and Stott to 2b. But that would only be on days when either Schwarber or Castellanos aren’t in the lineup, which for the money, we all hope isn’t often.
Hinkie-Tac-3up- v1-Don-Mark – You are all wrong. It would be a great signing! Think about it. Schwarber in left field, Castellanos in right field, Herrera in left center, and Harper in right center. That would be incredible! Oh, wait. My bad. I was thinking slow pitch softball.
I don’t get it, and this is not the signing I would envision to go over the salary cap. This could be the worst fielding team ever. Why does this make sense?
It doesn’t, but it’s not our money!
Maybe because Didi,Segura, & Nola could come off the books next year. Nola has an option they have to exercise. Let’s hope they obviously want to because he pitched good in 2022.
They probably have trades in the works to suppliement rhe D . Who knows maybe Kingery is looking like his old self . Camargo looking good? Maton?
Well, let’s just hope it works, whatever it is that they do. FWIW, I did see Castellanos play in CIN. He honestly didn’t look terribly, his stats say -9 runs lost… but he easily makes that up :). He looked better than Burrell ever did in lf if that helps anyone. Not to rip on Burrell but he is the “tolerance” bar to compare against.
In theory … the Phillies could mash 265 hrs from their regular lineup. That’s puts them near the top … not counting the other position players. Pretty crazy. A few years back 307 was tops in the league. We haven’t seen a Phillies team be near the top of the league for … well 10 years. Apparently a lot has changed. Phillies finished 198 last year. 265 is like middle of the road. With the DH in both leagues now .. 300 is likely the top bar for team hrs
Get ready for blast off, whoever DD adds. Castellnos or Correra. Correra must be resigning with Hou
Herrera/Vierling cf/late inning replacement
…I think we have the DH covered.
Lol…this post wins…so true…a team full of DHs
If this goes down … who’s going to be more scared?
Opposing pitchers facing the Phils’ lineup
Phils’ pitchers facing their defense?
🤣Here’s the message that the Phillies pitching staff will be hearing all spring: “Go for the K! If you can’t strike ’em out, walk ’em!”😂
I’m thinking Hoskins is the “main” DH
Schwarber plays 1B
Castellano is the LF
Bohm is 3B, if he fail Carmago becomes the everyday
I see Didi getting dealt
Lastly, thank the Met’s Cohen. Spending 285m put a fire under Middleton’s rump. Battle of the billionaire egos!
I think in 1993 the Phillies team we’re a bunch of DHs without the DH; I can think of: Inky, Chamberlain, Kruk, Hollins but can’t remember how the others could field.
Dutch would DH when he needed an off-day.
Very happy to have been proven wrong about their willingness to go over the tax.
just wondering if this deal goes down, Maybe stott plays third, and Bohm is moved, dd fills in at short for one yr, or we find a better fielding ss with less bat,
Serious pursuit to circuits.
I’d rather have CC though
Maybe this is a smoke screen. Serious pursuit of NC but really about to sign CC
Matt Gelb in the Athletic also has an article out just now regarding the Phillies having significant interest in Castallanos and talk about exceeding the tax threshold to do so.
Notes that Castallanos did play 3b earlier in his career but I don’t think that’s even a possible option moving forward. Even the Phillies are that uninterested in defense I hope.
Someone is certainly generating a lot of smoke around the rumor. Paging Scott Boras.
Bohm-Castellanos…3B…….Iron Glove candidates.
Scott Lauber tweetet within the past hour that the Phillies have discussed Austin Meadows with Tampa, unsure of where things stand there…
Wow. Wonder what Meadows would cost? Three years of him won’t come cheap. And I wonder if DD tries to open things up to include Tyler Glassnow. I’ve spent this offseason envisioning Dombrowski (who loves him some power arms) looking to target Glassnow. He’s out this season (TJ), and earning 5.8M, but is still under team control (at probably the same price) for 2023. I had originally thought Glassnow could be a part of a Kevin Kiermairer deal.
Hey, Romus … looks like the Phillies may have found their DH ⤵
Hopefully. That the one position on the team where they really appear to be lacking..
Hinkie….LOL…..unless 3 or 4 guys ahead of him go down to injury….he will be pounding balls in LHV again this year…or maybe with another organization..
Mrs. Castellanos’ (Nick’s mom) is good with her boy in red pinstripes.
I’m buying the Meadows rumor more than Castellanos. Phillies operate in silence so the serious pursuit thing seems like smoke
Once Jim Salisbury is posting what he’s been told, most of the time it gets done, regardless of whether we think it’s legit or not.
…the Meadows thing could have been leaked by Dombrowski to let Castellanos camp know that he’s got other irons in the fire.
Medina and Yoan Lopez both get picked up from waivers and Moss makes it thru and goes to AAA.
AA and AAA batters are doing good today, pitchers so so.
Start the spring with a tie, better than a loss.
If the brass is willing to break the bank and go over the LTT, why isn’t Correa the choice? Any chance the Nick C smoke is to catch the eye of Correa’s camp and draw him in at a lesser number. Seems like it’s Astro’s or bust for him- maybe he’s not to keen on that?
Dombrowski does have history with Castellanos…drafting him in 2010 as a Tiger..
And he may see in Castellanos now, what he saw in 30-year old at the time, JD Martinez in 2018 when Dave D was GM with the Sox…..both players do have similarities.
Add in the DH now….and the pieces fit.
I’m hoping for a good crowd for our ST home opener… I wish I could be there. I assume more of the regulars will play tomorrow than today?? The old saying “without a program you don’t know the players” was in effect today..
Rays got Luke Raley from the Dodgers. Means there is more of a possibility that they move Austin Meadows. I’d rather have Meadows than Castellanos for defense and dollars saved. The Phillies can offer a nice package including Curtis Mead. What’s that you say? The Phils have already “given” the Rays Curtis Mead. Either way, I’d rather see Meadows out in LF.
“Either way, I’d rather see Meadows out in LF.”
…..subscribe to FOX Sports Florida…. Rays play most of their games on Fox Sports Florida, a regional sports network. 🙂
Saw speculation that Boras was in Colorado with Bryant today for his presser, so the Castellanos announcement is expected to go down tomorrow. Again, speculation.
You were pretty dang close!
Reports are we signed Castellanos for 5/120. We are going to RAKE this year !!!
Castallanos announcement went down tonight. 5 years, $100 million to the Phillies.
Sorry…..that’s what I meant. 5/100. For all the people that wanted us to keep all our prospects and Middleton to spend his money, got their wish.
Anyone care to venture a guess as to what our opening day lineup will be ?
Yup I was one of them. Im not going to complain but I will say .. I probably would have spent it differently. Spending your way out of years of awful drafting while keeping the prospect capital you do have, is the best path forward. The young players need to step it up for sure now. The scouts better “scout” better. All in all, a great day for Phillies phans… holy crap is it going to be fun this year!
Lots of runs scored & lots of runs allowed this season. Lots of three-and-a-half hour games.
Now that over the cap, they may as well buy (or trade for) another starting pitcher for depth. Drew Smyly is still available.
Smyly is currently in deep discussions with the Cubs, according to Bruce Levine.
Hinkie, unless they are counting on someone like Romero to make a lot of spot starts, assuming they will have 6 starters on the staff, don’t they really need 2 more starting pitchers? How many pitchers do they have that can be counted on for 120 plus innings?
Romero rumored to be going on the 60
Well today was my birthday, so thank you DD!
Happy Birthday, Tac.
Happy 21st birthday TAC enjoy your day,
Love that bat!
Spend more money.
Keep the prospects (and grow more)!
Now that you’re over, sign another pitcher.
Let’s go Phillies present AND future!
…Hmmm, now what’s the record for errors?
1B, 3B, and LF could be horror shows. And not just the errors, but also the lack of range. And it’s not like the Phils have strong defense up the middle or have a Garry Maddox in CF to compensate for the defensive weakness elsewhere.
well it is not exactly the same as prospects, but since the Reds gave Castellanos a quallfying offer, do the Phils lose a draft pick and the corresponding salary pool money?
Yes they do.
However, if Bryson Stoot makes the team out of ST, and plays well enough to get in the top three of ROY voting in October…Phillies have a chance of getting a ‘comp’ pick…and I assume somewhere in the top ten rounds…my guess after the Round B small market compet. balance pick guys draft…..assume 80th thru 90th pick.
Correa to Twins 3/105 Kelley to Atlanta 1/16
….and we’ll all be waiting for Dombrowski to explain the defensive alignment, but right now, who cares!
Surprised that Correa signed a 3 year deal with the Twins instead of the Astros. Out of nowhere, especially when I thought Story would sign with Minnesota. Although Houston may not have been too keen on the annual opt outs. If Story is now willing to change positions, maybe he takes a shorter deal here to play CF?
I still find it difficult to believe that Dombrowski will let this roster fly without a single defensive upgrade at ANY position…new philosophy? A great offense is the best defense? We’ll see…
I believe this is the end of Bohm, cant have his bad defense plus castellanos on left side,
How about this trade as a finishing touch…
Nick Ahmed ss
Merrill Kelly rhp
Daulton Varsho cf/c
Alec Bohm 3b/1b/dh
Rafael Marchan c
Johan Rojas cf
Didi Gregorius ss/dh
Andrew Painter rhp
This would vastly improve the defense. Stott would move to 3b. Herrera and Vierling would be the 4th and 5th OFs, late inning replacements. Didi and Ahmed would partly offset each other, even if the Phillies pay half of Didi’s salary ($8M?) This doesn’t get them under the cap, but at least it significantly improves the defense. Varsho between Harper and either Castellanos or Schwarber would be make dynamic outfield. Plus DV would serve as 3rd catcher behind JTR and I suppose either Stubbs or Sands. And then Kelly offers some rotation depth with the likelihood of injury, and is under control and arb eligible thru 2024. The biggest pain in our package is losing Rojas, who I’d never trade unless we were in win now mode and getting a very good (and cheaper than Doobie!) CF in place for several years, being under control through 2026.
Try it on….
Awesome trade for the Diamondbacks. Totally fleecing of the Phillies.
Zero chance Painter is traded. Everyone wants to trade Didi except Girardi. What if, now healthy, he bounces back and hits 20 homers himself in that power lineup batting 7th? It’s possible.
Between Harper/Hoskins/Castellanos/Schwarber, there’s gonna be some MOON SHOTS at the bank. I live in the Hamilton/Princeton area, might have to put up some protections over my windows, HR balls quite possible may reach my neck of the woods.
I really didn’t think I’d see Middleton break through the LTT this year so that’s huge. This doesn’t happen without a “truth telling” executive of DD’s status telling JM that his best asset right now is cash if he wants a contending team and to build a farm system. He has hugely upgraded the roster without trading one prospect of note. As DD I am sure told Middleton, if you want to bring this payroll down in a few years you need to hold onto your best prospects. I also forgot that this is Castellanos’ age 30 season so there shouldn’t be a lot of down years on his contract – perhaps one or two. As for fit as a hitter he’s exactly what they needed – a high average, good power righty. This is a formidable line-up no matter how you slice it.
Middleton may not break the threshold….does not count until Nov….if Dombrow can trade Segura or Didi they may be able to inch under.
I’m very pleasantly surprised they went over the dap but both guys signed fair deals. It’s funny but Castellanos is actually probably better than Schwarber in LF so the defense didn’t get worse if possible. It’s a long season though and Stott will hopefully force his way up at some point. When he dies, Didi or Segura could be traded to lower the salary. We still need a 6th start long man type so I think one more arm will get signed. The bench will be cheap so Maton and even Kingery have a chance at a role along with Haseley as we’ll need a defensive OF with speed on the bench. Camargo, a catcher, an IF plus an OF. Thats it. Exciting day to be a Phillies fan!
Murray, Phillies checking in on Ronald Torreyes. Would likely give us a bench of Camargo, Stubbs, RT, and Vierling.
Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos and Hoskins could realistically combine for 150 HRs. Add 20-25 from JTR, maybe 20 more from Bohm if he rebounds. Segura and the CF platoon may give you 20 more. That would be well over 200 from the starting lineup alone, considering whether Didi and/or Stott get their time and together could pop another 20 between them.
Forgotten in all this glee about signing Castellanos is the loss of the 2nd round draft pick.
…true but if Stott finishes among top 3 in ROY candidates, the Phillies pick up at least one pick. An incentive to start his clock sooner…
DMAR….Phillies got your man….just a year later.
Dave D likes that DH option in the NL now, more flexibility for him to construct a roster………plus another JD Martinez clone in the fold for him.
Romus how much over does this deal make them? I think they move . If they move DD does they help them ?
rocco….final numbers for lux tax penalties calculations,
do not tabulate until Nov.
If Dave D can trade one of either Segura or Didi during the season or prior to it,
the Phillies could still inch a few shekels under the threshold.
I bet my money on a trade of one of those two players..
🙂 yes they did. I’m very impressed that JM allowed DD to step up and deepen this LU.
So many many doors just opened for DD to make some moves again to strengthen today and the future.
Sorry i Wonder if they move DD does it help them get under, is what i was trying to say
Happy Birthday, Tac! Have a great day. First, I am one of those who wanted to keep the prospects and spend $, so I was wrong that Middleton agreed to this. Second, this is not how I thought the money would be spent. I thought one of the SSs, with Stott moving to 2B in 2023, or the next Doc or Cliff Lee. Not to have 6 DHs on the team, with terrible D. This may work out great, but count me very surprised.
I like Dombrowski’s math skills….
Kris Bryant to Colorado = $182 million
+ Nick Castellanos to Phillies
= $179 million
…plus our two are arguably better bats overall than KB, just not defensive or flexibility.
Well, it’s not how I would have allocated the money because I value defense a lot, but this will be one really fun team to watch. We will never be out of a game. You will never be able to turn off the game early to go to bed. So that is fun. Crazy experiment but let’s see how it turns out.
Thanks for the wishes. When I blew out the candles, I wished for the Phillies to go over the LTT for the 1st time. You’re all welcome!
On other note… I wonder how Degrom & scherzer’s team breakfast is going this morning … realizing they have to pitch to this phillies lineup on the regular! That takes the bite out of their edge. Even a bowl of wheaties isn’t going to help them!
Keeping prospects is key. Defense is overrated. Pitchers won’t worry about run support. It is going to be fun. Go Phils.
Agreed. I think part of DD’s logic is, that the Phillies lineup will be even more effective now that the shift is banned. It’s going to be awesome. Teams can’t negate 240 mil payrolls by loading up the field. Add Schwarber, good setup, add Castellanos …Checkmate DD
Is the shift ban effective for this year? I was thinking it was effective 2023 for some reason.
Yes. Shift ban starts in 2023.
Here’s how I would do the lineup:
1. Schwarber (L)
2. JT (R)
3. Harper (L)
4. Nick C (R)
5. Rhys (L)
6. Segura (R)
7. Bohm (R)
8. CF platoon
9. SS platoon
I recognize that they put Segura in the 2 hole but personally I like JTR there more.
Rhys isn’t a lefty
Yep. My bad. Still wouldn’t change my lineup. But you are right
Seems a bit top heavy.. After Rhys who is driving in runs? I might flip Segura to second in the order then move everyone down one with the exception of keeping Harper 3rd in the lineup..
I go with…
I re-read my earlier post, and while I am surprised we spent $ this way, I am excited to watch us play. The pressure isn’t on Harper alone to carry the team, and I believe it helps JTR due to less pressure on him. Schwarber can get hot streaks that will carry a team and Castellanos can get scorching hot. So, we should be fun. Hoping DD guessed right with the BP, and can’t wait to see the season start. If we get anything from Bohm, and he plays an average D, that is a bonus, or if Stott forces his way to the Bigs, Segura or Didi can play 3B. A lot to watch for. And, Stott, Painter, Abel, Rojas, O’Hoppe, Garcia and McGarry, et al, are all still here.
Wow Jimmy I was wrong the Phil’s are actually doing stuff and guess what I am very glad to be be wrong
We both want the same thing for them to win.
How gidi must that locker room be right now? I bet the regulars went out on a bender last night. Get it out now boys, get ready to work this year. No excuses, and that includes poor defense.
I feel like the gap between the Phils and the dodgers has significantly closed. By buying the players, and keeping the prospects, they now have bullets to trade. Imo, they’ve made up for a lot of bad drafts by buying their way out. If they can actually start drafting 🤞, they can keep up (well close enough) .Please draft well and this team has a massive playoff window
The rebuild is OVER the hump, the Phillies are chasing now
Remember also that there is a new farm director and a completely new system being implemented. We need the development system to really work and to get some of these guys like Garcia, Rojas, Muzzioti and Ortiz improved.
It would be really great for once to see one or more of the higher ceiling prospects to actually reach (or come awfully close to reaching) their ceiling…particularly position players like Jhailyn Ortiz, Johan Rojas, Casey Martin and Jordan Viars. There emergence with arms like Abel, Painter and Erik Miller would be a beautiful thing, and way, way overdue.
Murray, Harper, Schwarber, and Castellanos probably block Ortiz for at least a couple of years. The Phillies have the luxury of bringing their corner prospects at a more leisurely pace.
Muzziotti gapped a ground-rule double to left-center yesterday. He looks bigger, so much so that I didn’t recognize him at first when he reported. He played well across several levels when he finally got here last year. If he continues to play well and has added power, he could push ahead of Haseley and Moniak on the org depth chart. He and Rojas could be vying for the CF job as early as next season.
I remember, Jim, when we got him his D in CF was touted as very good. Is that still the case?
I saw that hit, and one note that I feel is worth mentioning is that it was also seemingly easy power. It obviously wasn’t a blast out of the park, but it almost looked like a check swing and yet it one hopped the fence. I was shocked he had the muscle for that. I was always a fan of Muzziotti and that hit made me even a little more excited about his potential.
We need Didi to be healthy, and at least, his D improved. We also need Bohm to be an average fielding 3B. It’s hard to ask for more than that because, as v1 as noted several times, he doesn’t seem to have that athletic of a body. Herrera hs to play CF better defensively than he did last year. I didn’t like bringing him back, but he is here, this is my team, so I have to hope he plays better. I was most disappointed with his D last season. I know some of you disagree. And, Wheeler cannot be going through anything other than a momentary glitch. Any prolonged absence from him, and we are in real trouble. And, maybe, the Coaching Staff can actually get the BP to be a plus, not a minus! A lot to watch for, I know!
As much as we need Wheeler to be Wheeler, I honestly can’t expect him to repeat 2021 from this point on. Close to last year’s performance would be great, but Ranger, Nola and Eflin must be healthy and effective consistently throughout the season. Gibson is a luxury if he can merely eat some innings and keep us in games. Acquiring a fairly cheap 6th starter with experience (Sean Manaea?) would be welcome.
We need Bohm to get his hitting touch back. He is never going to be an average defensive 3B. We can hope that he cannot be too far below average. I believe he was like worst fielding among qualifying 3B bad defensively last season.
So what 2 players get dropped off the 40 to make room for Schwarber and Castellanos?
Also by signing the pair to 4/5 year deals, now that they have 7 OF on the 40 before adding the pair, do you think they try and package a few young players out of the Moniak, Haseley, Muzziotti, Ortiz, Vierling, Williams, Marchan, etc… or do they just roll with this pitching staff as is?
This team can now seriously hit. Unfortunately, the team defense will be one of the worst ever. We’ll see what happens.
Looking at Cots for team payrolls, the Phillies are now 4th at $223M. There are actually 5 teams with payrolls under $70M. Why the MLBPA would be ok with this is beyond me.
These are the following upcoming FAs: Didi, Hand, Familia, EFLIN, GIBSON, Knebel, Herrera. Segura (team option $17M) is maybe 50/50 to be picked up, Nola (team option $16M) will likely be picked up.
The farm will need to take a huge step forward this season in order to lower costs in the future. Stott should be fine, but we’ll need Crouse to be a 4/5 and Morales to be viable big leaguer as a reliever or starter. Abel and Painter are still 2-3 years away. O’Hoppe looks to be a keeper, but with him being blocked by JT for 4 more years, it’ll get interesting. The wild card is Johan Rojas. He’s clearly not being blocked in CF so the time is right for him to have a breakout 2022 and look to be part of the solution in 2023.
As the expression goes…team defense starts up the middle…..if they can get that from shortstop, as opposed to what was experienced last year, will make a world of difference.
i have confidence in the catcher, 2B and hopefully the platoon in CF.
Philies pitchers also field well.
i Was wondering does Castellano have speed?
rocco…he is not snail slow…he is average, ..less than Harper/JTR but I think he beats out Rhys /Schwarber in a 40 dash..
Here are some stats:
Rocco, I saw him in person play in CIN. He has wheels imo. I’d say he he is 7-7.5 out of 10 in the speed dept once he gets going. He’ll be a better LF than schwarber would. Schwarber is constant making sliding catches because he can’t get to routine flies fast enough. Castellanos makes less …. Because he can get there. Watch him run the bases, Castellanos has good speed for someone who is supposed to be a butcher in the field. He must make bad reads/jumps on the ball. I think he’ll have better D than Burrell gave us. They can live with it, especially if his bat is where it’s supposed to be
.285/40+hrs, 35+ xtra/875+OPS . He might be the best LF this team has had in 30+ years … overall.
Heyman talking Phils on MLB before game. Thinks Phils will be in top 6. But concerned about defense. Not sure where he would get that idea. He also thinks Phils should add Kimbrell from Sox. I still wonder if there is enough BP guys. He said Phils have improved but I wonder. It is great to see live games. Nola just records 1st K.
Segura for Kimbrell was mentioned a few days ago.
And I thought it was a good idea, however,
money-wise…lose $2M in 2022 (Kimbrel’s $16M vs SG’s $14M)…..and only save $1m on club opt buy-out for ’23 on Jean.
But you could use a BP arm like his.
Heyman said he did not do well as setup guy for Sox. But thinks he still can be a very good closer. Who knows. I still think BP can use some more.
Oakland A’s are having a fire sale in case anybody hasn’t heard.
Sean Manaea $10M in ’22, FA end of year.
Elvis Andrus (swap Didi?) $6+M in ’22, $13M next season…??
or Hinkie’s pal…
Ramon Laureano $2.8M in ’22, arb eligible thru ’24.
Any of these could be had without giving up (too) much.
A question, guys, I read for the second time, that the CBT tax is calculated after the season, in November, I believe. So, if this season ends, and Didi’s contract is over, as an example, only a buyout $# would count against the Tax? And, any other 1 year contracts that end after the WS, come off the # for tax purposes? There are quite a few, putting us under the Tax line? So, we could add salary at the trade deadline, let’s say on an expiring contract, and not worry about paying the Tax?
They are projected to be over at this point. Didi’s salary counts for this year. He’s buyout would be 2023 ‘s figure . I believe it is prorated. So if Didi plays half the year and then gets trade a portion of his salary per games played counts towards the LTT number. The other wrinkle, which will be interesting & a reason I believe Middleton decided to go over the LTT is how AAV is Calcukated on trades. Once a trade is done, the players new AAV is for the remaining portion of the contract only. Any players with back loaded contracts are going to be harder to trade, such as Kiemaier from Tampa. This is at least how I understand it, but I maybe off on some off the details
I was checking NCAA scores at 4 this morning and saw the Correa and Castellanos signings.
I was thinking barring any setbacks or injuries who do you see as the Opening Day Roster for Phillies? Some of you are more in tune here than I am. Looks like great offense and then ….
I am hoping all can stay healthy. TV guys said Bryce played a part in Castellanos.
Nola looks good in this 1st outing. Gave up the one moon shot but otherwise is good.
I haven’t done this in a while so I’ll give it a go:
Austin Wynns added to the team on a Minor League deal. We have a surplus of Cs at the higher levels. He has an invite to ST.
Usually you have to wait until the season starts to start getting Wynns…
But yeah, he’s just here to give us some no-downside competition. If he doesn’t make the team as the backup, he’ll get released most likely.
I smell a trade in the works involving one of our backup catchers/prospects.
It’s probably Marchan, and it had better not be O’Hoppe. Need? CFs and SPs are the only commodities out there worth trading for.
Wonder how other GMs see the potential between O’Hoppe and Marchan?
Both seem to be very good defenders, but they do differ from the offensive side.
If O’Hoppe hits his ceiling, he’s a worthy successor to Realmuto – a true first division regular. In fact, if he hits his ceiling, the team might try to trade Realmuto before his contract is up.
Marchan is a plus defender but weak hitter with decent contact skills. He’s a more traditional catcher, but could develop the ability to drive the ball over time. He should be a very competent back-up right away. The team has plenty of time to see if he’ll grow into anything more as he projects to be the low cost back-up at least this year and next. I’m not saying it’s impossible one of the other catcher they acquired could secure the back-up role, but Marchan, I would think, is the presumptive leader at this point.
They might need to move one of the catchers (Sands) off the 40-man roster. This could be a backup if he gets claimed on waivers. I suppose Cabral could be the veteran AAA catcher too, but Wynns is likely better.
They showed on game today that Familia had I think 51 saves in 2016. If we can only hope he has some of that left. I have not been overly impressed in recent years. Maybe a comeback is in order. Lets hope so.
Ricky, you were warned a year ago to watch your comments. This isn’t the first time you’ve said something rude about another person here. This was the message you may have missed. If I get one more complaint about you, you’re gone.
“Pretty Ricky. Your rhetoric is more suited in discussion groups on other sites. I think you would be happier on one of them. If you want to enjoy the privilege of commenting here, make intelligent statements and be able to support them with facts, especially when you are presenting a less popular opinion.” 1/25/2021
If anyone wants to talk directly with Ricky, I’ll post his email address here for you. Let me know.
What the heck was that all about?
I am hoping you got whatever was bothering you off your chest, but Hinkie is a terrific poster on this site, and I, for one, appreciate his posts, and respect his opinions. And, have disagreed with him a number of times.
Jim – please delete that terrible comment by Pretty Ricky. Uncalled for. Very rude
Aww come on who cares lol . . . I mean it was dumb but whatever.
LOL. Little Ricky is still hurting over the last time I called out one of his worthless posts (where he was doing the same thing … coming after a different commenter). I’m pretty sure a long time ago, he went by another name.
Anyway … I’m flattered that you’ve still been following even while being banned and not able to respond. Make sure to keep on following whenever your mom allows you to use the computer.
I to very much appreciate what Hinkie brings to this site.
You are correct that he went by a previous name and it’s telling that no one remembers him haha.
Hopefully he can find something fulfilling in his life so he doesn’t have to keep resorting to this. Maybe the Phils’ new offense can help.
Hinkie, we know you don’t need defending on this post but …For what’s its worth, I enjoyed the “Ric Flair – Wooooooo!” Link. Good timing to capture the moment. All the wrestling/Phils fans felt than one.
Social media sites are a cesspool of negativity and hatred because of that same mindset “but whatever”. However, if you let it continue, the culture of a site deteriorates.
We have a positive, constructive dialogue on this site. the culture of this site makes it enjoyable to read and post. There is no place for that type of post by Ricky on this site imo.
I agree, and I’m positive Jim will delete it next time he’s available. This is a repeat performance from Ricky and he’s been taken care of each time so far. Just sorry Jim has to take time out of his day to deal with it.
i’m the reason why social media is a cesspool, OOOOOOK lol. What ever happened to sticks and stone? He made a dumb comment, big deal, move on with your life, you’ll be ok. When you ignore someone like that, they usually go away.
I didn’t say you Eric, unless you also post as Ricky?
A transaction went down between the Yankees and Padres that I think is interesting…Voit for Justin Lange, the Padres CBA (1st round pick) in 2020.
This trade is an interesting comp for a Rhys trade. We probably won’t trade Rhys this year. But it is an interesting comp for what his value might be.
Imo, Rhys is better than Voit. So we could get more than a first round pick for him.
IMO, if Rhys is moved…..beside the $7M CBT relief move, I would really like to see Darick Hall given the opportunity to be at first base. The obvious benefit would be the money saved, and on the field, the defense.
As for the offensive metric not sure how it would play out, though the ISO may not be much of a drop-off.
I have to imagine if we move Rhys it’ll be because we want to open up 1B for someone already on the team (Schwarber, if I had to guess). I’m sad to say, I don’t see any chance for Hall to play in Philly outside of a fire sale or multiple injuries.
Know you’re a Hall fan but if Rhys gets moved it would be to make room for one of the new guys or Bohm to take over that spot so they can be replaced with a defensive upgrade.
I don’t think Hoskins gets traded in 2022 unless they implode during the season but I do think his time with the Phillies will end before he becomes a FA.
Trading Hoskins would be bad for the clubhouse. He’s a big presence.
Obviously if the return is well worth it, you go for it.
Would love nothing more than to see Hoskins have a fully healthy season. He was really hitting his stride before that season ending injury.
It’s great Phillies got Schwarber and Castellanos. Maybe it’ll make Hoskins even more potent.
i Wonder what a Hoskins trade brings? I think we need to see how bad the defense is before we make a move with Hoskins or Bohm, Unless we get some good prospect back, I Just dont have any idea what there worth is, cant see it being a great return.
where would you insert Castellanos in that lineup you posted above, Trollu?
No offense, Romus, but I don’t get where all the Darick Hall love comes from. He’s a pretty traditional AAAA slugger. He’s never had an OPS above .800 in AA or AAA and he’s going to be 27 this year. I mean, he has not market value and they don’t have a stud first base slugger at AA or AAA, so there’s no harm in keeping him around. I guess there’s always a wild chance he could develop into a bona fide big league hitter, but I”m not holding my breath on that, although, truly, I wish him every success.
Anyway, if he’s going to develop into a major league hitter, he needs to do it NOW. Like this year.
Just like to see how he would do when given an extended opportunity…be it in Philly or another org. which will probably be the case after this season..
Not to pile on, but I agree with Catch. Hall has been given an extended opportunity — 1000 PAs in AA and AAA the past two years. Nothing in his AA or AAA numbers indicates likely major league success. Here’s a comparison for you:
Player 1: 24 years old, at Lehigh Valley: 475 PA, 29 HR, .284/.385/.581 for a .966 OPS
Player 2: 25 years old, at Lehigh Valley: 470 PA, 14 HR, .230/.338/.493 for a .741 OPS
Player 1 is Rhys Hoskins, Player 2 is Darick Hall.
Great point V1. Although I wonder if Preller was pressed into a move like this.
Infrequent poster but have to say Hinkie provides tons of great information. We all can disagree on opinions but slamming him is way out of line
I think Hoskins could have a monster year if he’s healthy. He’s going to see a lot more pitches to hit with this lineup. I think 45 HR’s is doable for him.
Oh, hell yeah. And if he hits over .275, he could be an MVP candidate. He’s just on the cusp of reaching his peak. Hoskins is a hell of a player.
Hmm, I disagree there, in seeing Hoskins as a near mvp like player. I see him more of a top tier supporting player (werth vs Rollins/utley/Howard) but I’d love to be wrong!
On a side note, I see Didi rebounding, if he truly had an injury that kept him from extending. He’s seems like he’ll be all the way back or his career is over. One of the other, no in between
Since there is zero defense at the corners besides Harper when not battling back issues, can the Phil’s please get Straw for cf and Lopez from KC.
Straw most likely costs Bohm and a prospect right below Crouse in value. Carmago becomes 3b and infield defense might be a bit above average. If they’re set on Bohm maybe blowing up this year, get McCormick from the Astros.
Also, bring back Torreyes
They brought back Torreyes. He was re-signed earlier today. Minor league deal with an invite to camp.
Dunno how much time he’ll spend on the roster this year, but we have him as an option at least.
I have to tell you, having watched him for a year I love that they brought back Torreyes. You can throw that guy anywhere and he’ll make plays, get key hits and is nothing but a positive influence. In a line-up of poor fielding sluggers a guy like Torreyes – who you can plug in pretty anywhere at any time – is invaluable to hold the fort down. I’ll tell you right now, if this team does something this year, at the end of the year, you’ll be able to point to a handful of important games where Torreyes made some type of positive difference. I love stats and data as much as anyone, but I also believe there’s something to the eye test and to team chemistry. Torreyes is a glue player and I believe in him.
Saw game after game last year where Torreyes hit a homer, made a play, got on base, and just was always there in a critical moment. Great signing and “Catch:” I am on your team with this one !!!
Agree….RoTo seem to be a catalyst in plenty of wins last season.
What I cannot fatom…is how a guy with close to 350 PAs, with his numerous contributions, only calculates to a 0.3WAR!
The slash may not tell the whole story…..242/.286 /.346
Romus i did it again, move the decimal, its a 3.0 war
I’m not liking Schwarber batting lead off, I like his 2nd.
I’m not concerned about alternating L -R in the order with the talent onboard. Remember the reliever must face minimum of 2 batters.
I’d like to drop Realmuto in the order to give 7-9 some threats
If Didi can regain form, then this lineup is super scary. Add in bohm or stott takimg off – going to be fun.
I know many are concerned about the defense, but the Phillies should rake against opposing teams #4 & 5 pitchers. That should really put games out reach from defensive errors MOST of the times
Excited to see what moves are left. Glad to have torreyes back.
Psyched to such and improved team WITH the prospects. Have we ever had this many prospects to follow with such a good MLB club? It’s usually all or nothing for the minors or majors. It’s a nice change!
Between 2008 until around mid-2010 we had prospect capital like we currently do (and obviously that was the team’s golden age). Arguably even better. That’s the only reason we were able to swing trades for Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Pence, Lidge, and even people like Blanton and Matt Stairs.
Most of those prospects never made much noise in the majors, but that’s just part of prospects (and then there’s there’s a couple like Bourne and D’arnaud who had/have long careers).
That is why they call them prospects. One just never knows for sure. There are a few can’t miss barring injury but for most you just do not know till they line up between the white lines. I may be wrong but I think most in the Halladay and Lee deals did not go on to anything special. But neither team knows for sure what will happen. Baseball is just so much risk involved. Personally I think much more than NBA and NFL. Journey is so much longer in most cases.
In the Halladay trade, neither Drabek nor Michael Taylor ever did anything significant in the majors. D’arnaud has stuck around for quite a while, but ironically it was for the Mets, not the Jays. And even more ironically, in addition to not getting any future value from their trade of the best pitcher in baseball, they actually LOST value because D’arnaud was part of the trade that had the Jays send Thor to New York (for RA Dickey and two other players that were not good for them).
Lee, on the other hand, has a history of big trades. Cliff was included in 4 trades, and the only one of them that didn’t produce a productive major leaguer for both teams was unfortunately when we traded him away. When we acquired him, we gave up Lou Marson and Jason Donald who both had short stints in the majors, but also Carlos Carrasco who was a monster for the (formerly) Indians. And after acquiring him from us, the Mariners traded him for a package that included Justin Smoak. So