Playing GM in the 2020-21 Off Season (12/16/2020)

Other Stuff

The Professional Baseball Agreement has expired.  The 2019 international signing period has closed.  Trading between teams has resumed.  Qualifying offers have been made and accepted or declined.  Free agency has started.  Rosters have been set.  Contracts for the 2021 season have been tendered.  The Rule 5 Draft has been held.

Now, the Hot Stove Season can go into full swing.

I have consolidated information from COTS and Baseball Reference into a speadsheet for you to reference as you come up with trades and signings that you think the Phillies should undertake.  I’ll keep it up-to-date.  I’ll pin this on the site for reference.  Try and refer back to it occasionally when suggesting moves.

There are no rules when playing GM.  But, trades and free agent signings don’t happen in a vacuum.

The stuff I’ve seen so far doesn’t address the repercussions of a transaction.  Sometimes, the actual needs of the Phillies aren’t even considered.

For instance, the Phillies lost two key offensive components with the free agency of Didi Gregorious and J.T. Realmuto, have a very real need for some bullpen help probably including a closer, defensive holes at the positions vacated by Gregorious and Realmuto, experienced rotation depth, and bench help.  These should be their targets.

So, one of the first suggested acquisitions I see is Jackie Bradley, Jr.  Signing JBJ fills the last spot on the 40-man roster without addressing any of their needs.  .  It adds a weak-hitting center fielder to a group that already includes 7 outfielders and 4 center fielders.  He might a good defensive option, but we have Adam Haseley, a better hitting option.

I also saw an aggressive suggestion that included 6 or 7 free agent signings.  Probably, all nice additions, but where do they fit on the 40-man roster.  You’d need 5-6 spots to for Rule 5 protection.  DFA-ing them or anyone else exposes them to waivers.  Someone like David Hale would still have to be paid since he has a contract.  His $850K doesn’t seem like much, but it is for a team that is crying poor.  I’m not sure we have 5 DFAs on the roster.

The same suggestion included trading Jean Segura as a salary dump.  There are several problems with this.  First, his no-trade clause.  He received $1M to waive the clause when Seattle traded him to the Phillies.  Having to pay Segura to approve a trade adds cost to the deal.  Second, a trade partner is very likely to want to move a similar contract back as part of the deal.  That plus the cost of his waiving his no-trade clause kinda negates any benefit of the dump.  Third, I haven’t heard any recent interest in Segura since a possible interest by Toronto a couple weeks ago.  Looks like the market evaporated.

These are just a few of the things that should be considered when building a trade or signing free agents.

How would I go about correcting the Phillies roster?

  1. I forget about relief pitchers for now.  Other than a closer or two, the second tier of available free agent relievers are about the same.  I think the Phillies agenda is to wait them out and address the bullpen in January.  Sooner if relievers start flying off the shelves.
  2. I concentrate on catcher.  The Phillies are not going north with Rafael Marchan on their active roster.  They need another catcher.  Realmuto would be nice, and I think the Phillies would like to sign him at their number.  I think they can outbid the Astros for his services, but don’t think they want to get into a bidding war.  This type of negotiation could drag out into February.  I think the Phillies should grab one of the less expensive, veteran, defense-first catchers to pair with Knapp.  (His AVG, OBP, and OPS were all better than JT’s in 2020.)  If they can swoop in on Realmuto later, great.  The depth of the third catcher is a plus. For now, the defensive catcher fills the 40.
  3. I sign Didi or Andrelton Simmons.  Didi would be my first choice because he’s a known commodity in CBP.  This move requires a DFA, Kyle Holder fits the bill.  If he clears waivers, fine.  If not, oh well.
  4. Infield looks like Hoskins, Segura, Didi or Simmons, Bohm with Kingery as utility infielder.  Outfield is McCutchen, Haseley, Harper so far.  Moniak and Muzziotti aren’t going to ride the bench.  Quinn is expendable in my world.  I would go after some depth like Marwin Gonzalez or Cameron Maybin on one-year contracts.  I’d even consider Jay Bruce.  I would like Phil Goselin as one of my spare outfielders.  So, Goselin and one of the other 3 (Gonzalez, Bruce, Maybin) and DFA Garlick and Quinn.  Would you consider Braun on the cheap?
  5. Any one of a dozen free agent pitchers would look good at the back end of our rotation until we’re sure Spencer Howard is ready to go.  DFA Hamilton.
  6. Time to address the bullpen and catcher.  Sign the two best high-leverage relief pitcher left on the market.  Really should have addressed the closer situation back in December.  Big Dave likes a closer.  Joe does, too.  Remember Mariano?  I think we have enough talent on the 40 and in the upper minors to supplement the rest of the bullpen.  Anyway, that’ll lead to two pitchers being DFA-ed.
  7. Catcher.  I really didn’t add enough offense to replace Didi and JT.  Simmons is Didi-lite.  A full season of Bohm will help.  Haseley should continue to improve.  He was hitting well when he went down with an injury.  Looks like I have to bite the bullet and sign JT.  I can avoid a DFA here if one of the pitchers or Goselin signed a minor league contract.  That player wouldn’t have to be added to the 40 until after Dominguez goes on to the 60-day IL.
  8. Sign as many pitchers both starters and relievers to minor league contracts with invites to ST as is reasonable.  Keep ’em or cut ’em after camp as needed.
  9. So, that makes my rotation – Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, new guy, Velasquez with Howard adding strength in extended spring.  I’m sure there are a number of days he can spend down there that will allow the Phillies to screw with his service time.  (typed with venomous sarcasm) (Don’t count out Ramon Rosso)
  10. The bullpen – new closer, new set-up guy, Neris, Romero, Brogdon, Rosso, Jones/Sanchez/Quezada/Suarez and Hale
  11. Maybe sign another high-leverage reliever?  Yeah.

It ain’t easy painting a roster and staying inside the lines.

The Phillies have 39 players on the 40-man roster.  (This is all info included in the spreadsheet)  They have –

  • six multi-year contracts – Bryce Harper, Zach Wheeler, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Aaron Nola, and Scott Kingery.
  • five one-year contracts – Hector Neris, Zach Eflin, David Hale, Andrew Knapp, and Seranthony Dominguez
  • two one-year contracts pending arbitration – Vince Velasquez and Rhys Hoskins
  • thirteen Pre-Arb Players to fill out the active roster
  • thirteen Minor League Players to fill the 40-man roster
  • one empty 40-man roster slot

Current 40-Man Roster –

  1. Bryce Harper, RF – 3rd year of a 13-year contract
  2. Zack Wheeler, RHP – 2nd year of a 5-year contract
  3. Andrew McCutchen, LF – 3rd year of a 3-year contract w/option
  4. Jean Segura, SS – 4th year of a 5-year contract
  5. Aaron Nola, RHP – 3rd year of a 4-year contract w/option
  6. Scott Kingery, 2B – 4th year of a 6-year contract w/3 options
  7. Hector Neris, RHP – signed 1-year/$5M contract
  8. Zach Eflin, RHP – 2nd of 3 arb years, signed 1-year/$4.45M contract
  9. Andrew Knapp, C – 2nd of 3 arb years, signed 1-year/$1.1M contract
  10. David Hale, RHP – 2nd of 3 arb years, signed 1-year/$850K contract
  11. Seranthony Dominguez, RHP – 1st of 4 arb years, signed 1/year $727,500 contract
  12. Vince Velasquez, RHP – tendered contract
  13. Rhys Hoskins, 1B – tendered contract
  14. Victor Arano, RHP – arb-eligible in 2022
  15. Ranger Suarez, LHP – arb-eligible in 2022
  16. Adam Haseley, OF – arb-eligible in 2023
  17. Roman Quinn, OF – arb-eligible in 2022
  18. Connor Brogdon, RHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  19. Garrett Cleavinger, LHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  20. Spencer Howard, RHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  21. Cole Irvin, LHP – 1st arb-eligible in 2024
  22. Mauricio Llovera, RHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  23. Adonis Medina, RHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  24. Johan Quezada, RHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  25. Jojo Romero, LHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  26. Ramon Rosso, RHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  27. Christopher Sanchez, LHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  28. Rafael Marchan, C – arb-eligible in 2024
  29. Alec Bohm, 3B – arb-eligible in 2024
  30. Mickey Moniak, OF – arb-eligible in 2024
  31. Kyle Garlick, OF – arb-eligible in 2023
  32. Kyle Dohy, LHP – contract selected November 20th, 2020
  33. Bailey Falter, LHP – contract selected November 20th, 2020
  34. Damon Jones, LHP – contract selected November 20th, 2020
  35. Francisco Morales, RHP – contract selected November 20th, 2020
  36. Nick Maton, SS – contract selected November 20th, 2020
  37. Simon Muzziotti, CF – contract selected November 20th, 2020
  38. Ian Hamilton, RHP – arb-eligible in 2024
  39. Kyle Holder, SS – Ruke 5 selection

Roster size for the 2021 season should revert back to the previously agreed upon 26 players with pitchers limited to 13 of those slots.  Any deviation will have to be negotiated along with season length and start date.

 

69 thoughts on “Playing GM in the 2020-21 Off Season (12/16/2020)”

  1. 1. Sign Taijuan Walker
    2. Sign Didi 3/15 max
    3. Sign JT 4/80 5th mutual max
    4. Sign 2 FA bullpen arms (depends on money left to spend)
    5. Release Irvin, Quezada
    6. Trade Quinn for relief pitching
    7. Explore trades for Segura and Cutch, eat some money, but save maybe 10 million. Return pitching
    I don’t see Didi and JT doing better
    Get creative with pitching like Tampa on 4th/5th starter days

  2. Plenty of moves….but just the first .
    Kingery and Vinny Velo to the Dodgers…..try to get prospects RHP Clayton Beeter and 2B Michael Busch.
    ………..clears $8M

  3. This title is right up my alley. i thought i saw recently that Kevin Gowdy was a late addition to the 40 man.
    gm

  4. Jimmy this is fantastic work by you my friend. I’m in awe 🙂

    This is the kind of depth and breadth you don’t get any where else IMO

    1. Even this is incomplete.

      I woke up this morning realizing that I had just 12 position players on the 26-man roster and no depth on the rest of the 40.

      I’m not sure that the Phillies carry 3 catchers on the 26 and I’m not sure that the veteran catcher I signed in #2 above will not accept an assignment to AAA.

      Of the remaining position players – Marchan, Maton, Moniak, Muzziotti – are any ready to spend the season on the major league bench? I think it hurts their development since none have played above AA.

      I think I would use the last active roster spot on Austin Listi or Darick Hall, Both can back up Hoskins at first and start there if he’s not ready after his rehab. Hall is the better defensive option at first, but Listi has seen time at all 4 corners.

      1. It’s either JT or it’s another catcher, not both. They won’t have 3 catchers on the 26.
        Also, to the guy who thinks he’s getting Didi for 3/$15M, that’s not happening. Try doubling that. 3/$30 is the low side.

      2. Listi and Hall need a good look during ST. If one works out, there should be a spot on the 26 man roster. If they don’t sign Bruce, only Bohm can back up Hoskins and he needs to stay at 3b. I hope they live up to their potential.

  5. Assuming things stay somewhat normal, I think the Phillies have a pretty strong top 3 rotation between Wheeler, Nola and Eflin. If Spencer Howard can stay healthy, then that is a very good top 4. To me, it’s looking more and more like John Middleton is going to be walking around Citizens Bank Park asking people if they can spare any loose change. So I would like to see a 4 man competition for the fifth spot in the rotation between David Parkinson, Damon Jones, Ranger Suarez, and Adonis Medina. Eventually, this organization is going to have to see what they have in their young players, and it may even work out. I mean Randy Lerch won 10 games as a rookie in 77, Bob Walk won 11 in 80, Charles Hudson won 8 in 83, Ben Rivera, if not an outright rookie in 93 won 12, and Kyle Kendrick won 10 in 07. They weren’t asked to do anything other than be back end innings eaters, and it’s time to give the kids a chance if they deserve it.

    1. Wow….you remember all those rookie pitchers from the day. And yes…maybe a few of the youngsters will also step up now….along with relief arms like Brogdon, Romero, Dohy, Hammer and/or Warren.

  7. While the bullpen is a glaring need, the market for value pieces is fairly strong IF you’ve got someone to evaluate (do we?) and a manager who knows how to deploy them (we do). But a bonafide closer should be a slam dunk, especially for Dombrowski.

    Otherwise, solidify up the middle. C, SS, 2B, CF…and add a #3 or #4, along with the aforementioned closer.

    Sign JTR for no more than 4/$100M with one club option year. Simmons’ D at SS for a song. I allow Kingery to reestablish himself in 2021, given his medical issues in 2020. CF? JBJ isn’t a horrible option because defense improves pitching. The #3/#4 SP market is accessible enough to acquire one either through free agency or a trade, which is where shedding some of Segura’s money comes in. I don’t have any particular SP’s in mind. Any number of candidates would suffice. Liam Hendriks is my target for the closer role.

    I think this addresses the major league roster’s needs within financial constraints, yet without being cheap about it. Harper, JTR, Nola, Wheeler, Bohm and Hoskins should provide an already existing core that makes this team legit, with actual “value in the margins”….

    Make it so, DD!

    1. mark8:29………”…and add a #3 or #4, along with the aforementioned closer.”
      ….still trying to dump Eflin, eh?

      1. No, Romus. I’m actually high on Eflin. I figure him to be either a 3 or 4, depending on the SP acquisition. I don’t count on Howard in 2021 beyond a 5. And Vinny Nibbles is a trade chip. I wouldn’t mind giving Medina a crack in the spring.

        1. Ok,
          ….and agree, Medina should be give the opportunity to show what he can do.
          They have given other pitchers adequate chances, and have seem to be a little reluctant with Medina.

  8. Romus is there more than one Medina? i saw Adonias he stinks plain and simple, he cant be counted on to help?can he?

    1. rocco baldelli …..you saw him pitch 4 innings in late Sept….3 hits, 3 walks , 2 runs and 4 Ks….his first big league inning was a disaster ..nerves probably…but he settled down over the the last three innings……and from that he stinks!

  9. Neftali Feliz signed to a Minor League contract, He has not pitched for quite a while. I don’t know what prompted his come back attempt. I would have claimed Brad Hand. Only a year commitment, and I know it’s $10M, but he would have been my Closer. I don’t see us on Hendriks because there will be a number of suitors, and I don’t see us engaging in a bidding war. I know DD and JoeG like a Closer, and I don'[t think Neris is a good one, but if the plan is to wait for who is left in March, then I don’t see us getting a real Closer. Some arms will be left, sure, but not anyone I would want to Close. So, I am doing a pretty lousy job of being GM, because I would have already had Hand and Trevor May signed.

    1. matt13….he is currently pitching in the Dom Winter League…13 innings so far….19 Ks….maybe he will get something back.

  12. They absolutely can’t go into the season with Howard as the 4th and an internal battle for the 5th. That would be terrible. Howard is only going to pitch around 100 – 120 innings. He and Vinny, if he’s here, could run a nice tag team in the 5th spot. We need another innings eater in the 4th slot. Many are still out there. Plus I don’t expect a Segura trade. Too much money for what he is and I don’t see them eating money. I want Simmons at SS, we need the defense, and I want Bradley, despite what Jim says, in CF. Haseley hasn’t shown me he’s a starting OF. At best I think he’s a 280 hitter with no power and he’s only an adequate OF with an average arm. That’s a 4th OF

  13. What could we get for Kingery Romus, and are you ready to giver up on him? I don’t think it is out of the question that Toronto takes Segura, and we don’t get much back. Kingery plays 2B, and a Simmons for SS. If Kingery does not bounce back, he can be traded at a future point, because his value can’t be lower than it is today.

    1. matt13…not ready to give up on him…but Holder was drafted for a specific reason….to basically do what Kingery does….and probably better in the infield.
      And cheaper to boot.
      If they get a shortstop…..I really do not see them being able to move Segura without costing them money….they may have to take back someone else that needs payment….so then Segura is back and goes to 2B.
      Kingery…I do think the Dodgers would like him since they lost Kiki Hernandez as their utility guy.
      Kingery could bring back one of their prospects….and they have a deep farm system to choose from.

  14. I don’t know the system as well as many on here so I’ll ask why would you keep these guys on the 40? and how would you rate them in terms of likely to stay on the 40.

    Cole Irvin
    Johan Quezada
    Christopher Sanchez
    Kyle Garlick
    Ian Hamilton

    1. Obviously, their spots are all tenuous. Garlick for one is the only OF on the 40, not on the 26. Pitchers are always listed from top to bottom by the team. Do we know that Arano will ever bounce back? I doubt it actually. You could add him to that list. Clearly there will be more bodies added to the 40, forcing some off.

      1. Not 100% accurate. Of the 7 outfielders on the 40-man roster, ALL are on the active roster. In fact, both rosters contain the same 39 players. There is no 26-man roster at this point.

        Garlick was on the active roster last season as late as September 16th when he was added to the IL with an oblique strain. Of the 7 outfielders on the active/40-man rosters, six were on the active roster at some point last season – Harper, McCutchen, Haseley, Quinn, Moniak, and Garlick.

        Only Muzziotti (who was added to the 40-man roster on November 20th) was not on the active roster last season.

        FWIW, Garlick slashed .314/.382/.675/1.057 with the Dodgers AAA affiliate in 2019 and .250/.321/.521/.842 with the Dodgers in 30 games.

        1. I hope we can keep Garlick in the mix. He is older and only started to break through in 2019, but we’ve seen a lot of guys his age who finally have a meaningful breakthrough in the minors and then, after an adjustment period, excel in the majors (Josh Donaldson and Max Muncy are recent examples as is Luke Voit). Most have walk rates better than Garlick’s but he’s intriguing and I hope they keep him around because you truly never know and they could always use another power bat in CBP.

  15. I know we had different feelings on DD being hired, but I think we all saw it as a sign that there would be activity of some sort. I don’t get the lack of any buzz about the Phils. I know they like to be secretive, but with other teams promoting their agendas, and Agents having a ton of players unsigned, there are bound to be leaks of us being in on certain players. But, there is zero. Not just no signings, but zero word of us being in on anyone. No BP depth, no SP depth, nothing. I wonder how much off merchandise sales are during the Holidays this year, compared to past years? I get ads all the time from the team because I have bought things before, not just tickets, and I have zero interest in buying anything team related. And, I hope, every day, for some sign that this is not going to be another wasted season. Does the Owner realize that the apathy he is generating has long term affects?

    1. Give DD some time. He’s been in the job one week. He has to catch up with everything going on since he was on the sidelines, not in the game, before being hired. I’ve felt all along that most things weren’t going to happen until January. Baseball needs a clearer view of the Covid situation before decisions can be made. For instance, when might fans attend games? When will the vaccines be delivered to enough folks? These answers will effect the money to be spent by all teams. The agents know that too and don’t want to settle early for less money.

    2. Shame on the Phillies for not doing something to satisfy Matt. 😉

      Seriously, though. Not only do the Phillies like to be secretive, but they have a new boss who would be the logical place to get information. DD has to get up to speed in an organization that (like others) is working from home rather than from the offices at CBP. And, I think he’s operating from Nashville until after the holidays.

      That’s not exactly easy media access for the local beat writers. They gotta wait until he picks up the phone or replies to one of their requests for interviews. I’m sure they aren’t a priority as he talks to all the key people in the organization … as well as taking calls from other organizations.

      Plus, the Phillies reduced staffing by a reported 80 plus employees (actually over 130 were released). I’ll bet more than a few leaks were among that group. Tough to leak information when you find yourself working from home until the end of the year and are out of the loop on what’s going on.

      And, they ARE being linked to players. Just on a level that hasn’t reached the press yet. I hear stuff almost everyday.

      Try not to let the level of “buzz” around other teams or players bother you. Most of the “interest” reported by the national media people and outlets is just to fill space. For instance, serious suitors for Realmuto are far fewer than the number of teams reported to have interest. Remember all the teams in on Harper and it turns out the Phillies were likely bidding against themselves?

  16. matt13…gee, Matt.did you read the excellent article about DD from Jayson Stark. Literally two Sunday’s ago he and his son are driving to get pizza and I bet he doesn’t even know the Phillies entire starting rotation and the following Sunday he is the POBO of the team.

    Let’s give him a chance to get familiar with the players and needs of the team for a bit, we won’t have to worry that he is going to be gun shy about making moves. He will!

  17. If we can have a vaccine for the most deadliest virus known to mankind within 9 months,
    …..Dave Dombrowski should be able to make a trade within 9 days….sheeesh!
    Now let me eat my microwave lunch. 🙂

  18. CD, I did read it, and it was an excellent article. You are correct, and I need, too often it seems, to be talked back off the ledge. I can’t argue with you when you are right.

  19. For me …

    * Re-sign JTR for the 40th spot. He’s almost assuredly going to get five years. I felt he could get 120M. That figure may drop to 110M now that the Mets are no longer a factor. If the Phillies get Realmuto for anything less than 5/110M, that’s a big win for them.

    * Sign a SS. Didi is, by far, their best option. His LH bat lengthens their lineup. He likes playing for Joe Girardi. I think he could be had for 2/22M. To make room, I’d DFA Kyle Garlick.
    BTW … the team can back load the JTR and Didi contracts to help with any financial problems they claim they’re suffering through in 2021.

    * Wait out the market, and sign a LHSP to a short term contract (a pillow deal). I’d rank the candidates like this: James Paxton (#1 by a long shot), Carlos Rodón, José Quintana, Cole Hamels, JA Happ, Alex Wood. If James Paxton would take a 1/10M deal, I’d be all over that. The other guys are worth half that. I’d DFA Cole Irvin to make room for Paxton or one of the other LHSP’s.

    * For the Phillies BP, I’d hunt reasonably priced arms with high K-rates. The two guys who top my list are Darren O’Day (at least 11.6 K/9 for the past 6 seasons) and Chasen Shreve (12.2 K/9 last season). They each also add a different look. O’Day is a side arm thrower, and Shreve showcases a left handed “splitter”. Shreve pitched for Girardi and with Caleb Cotham while with the Yankees. The Phils should DFA Hale and eat his 850-thousand dollars. They can also cut ties with Ian Hamilton.

  20. All good moves Hinkie, and I would add Trevor Rosenthal to your BP list. jim, you are correct, as is CD. I spend far too much time reading about what we are doing and not doing. You also make excellent points about DD getting settled in. And, he is still operating from Nashville, and via phone and zoom, so any lack of news is understandable. It would be nice of the Phils, since I am such a good fan, to give me a nice BP arm for Christmas. I think that is reasonable. All kidding aside, this is why I am on this site constantly, every day. I do appreciate those of you who panic far less often than I do.

    1. matt13….what Neftali Feliz is chopped liver!
      He is up to mid-90s in the Dominican Winter League
      BTW…in the spirit of the season….Feliz Neftalidad

    2. Matt … yes, Trevor Rosenthal is an excellent free agent target for the Phillies. He’ll cost a little more than O’Day and Shreve, but he’s a power arm that has closed at times throughout his career. Sorry I missed him.

  21. My take based upon the time to “retool” and there is a “budget” comments:
    Kingery, Segura, and Haseley all remain as full time players for the most point in a make or break it season to show the team what they do or do not have. The addition on the offensive side would be JT for catcher.
    *I would consider a Segura trade which would likely bring back an expensive contract but it may be at a position of need such as reliever or starter. If Segura is moved then consider a Didi reunion if JT goes elsewhere or Simmons or other at a lower cost. Keep in mind that bringing in another SS may prevent the team of going after one of the top free agent SS next year.
    They need to add 1 starter and 2 relievers with at least one of them being left handed. I would expect all 3 of them will likely be $5 mil or less for the year.

    Starters:
    Nola
    Wheeler
    Eflin
    FA signee Hamels??/trade acquisition Musgrove?? probably not!
    Velasquez / Howard
    depth: Suarez
    Rosso (may surprise people)
    Medina/Morales/Llovera

    Watch for trade with Pirates for a possible starter – my guess is they could be interested in prospects or even Haseley.

    Roster causalties:
    Garlick
    Irvin
    Quezada
    Sanchez
    Hamilton
    anyone traded away

    Quinn as another trade candidate, I do love his potential but his low OB% makes him a flawed hitter with great speed.

    1. Anyone who thinks they’ll sign JT AND sign one of the big SS free agents next year is badly mistaken. No way there’s enough money for that. A team can’t have three +$20M players plus Wheeler and Nola and Hoskins will be getting more expensive soon too. At least I don’t think so. The rest of the team would have to be base salary players.

  22. The Phillies were probably never in on McCann because they are waiting on Realmuto. If they sign JTR, then they go into 2021 not much better than this past season. They’ll have Harper and the best catcher in baseball but not enough to contend. Lots of big contracts but not enough supporting parts.

    1. Ciada…think bullpen….and also defense
      Dombro will strengthen the BP…last year was the second worst in 90 years…only the 1930 Phillies’ bullpen was worst…worst MLB history
      https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/1930.shtml
      Led the league..or tied… in blown saves…I think it was 13 or 14.

      Defensively they cannot be that bad again….their defensive shifts were atrociously ineffective. I would think that is correctable. Actually Didi had a bad year in the field by his past standards…14th in the majors with a minus 2 DRS…and Kingery cannot be that bad again at minus 5 DRS.

      1. Romus, I don’t know how much Covid affected Kingery, but I can imagine that it exacted a fairly substantial toll. I have always liked him, and cannot believe that, defensively at least, his game fell off so much. The slow swing I can also attribute to losing fitness, timing and strength because of the virus. I play him at 2B, not SS or CF, and not as a utility guy unless he starts the season like he played last year. To me, Segura loses value at SS, and I look to trade him. Rather than take back another onerous contract, I pay some of the salary to get salary relief, then sign a stopgap SS, like Simmons. He is very good defensively. Whatever we save from moving Segura vs what we retain and the Simmons deal should pay for a nice BP arm or 2.

        1. matt13…you are rolling the dice with the 27-year old Kingery…..if he comes back to his 2019 self —then it is somewhat good, but not great……..if not, and produces like 2020, then you are forced to have him as a expensive utility guy that will be difficult moving for value at a future cost of…2022-$6M….2023-$8M.
          I would like to see him take that next step, above his 2019 production of a …wRC+-101….2.7fWAR.

          Plus you have two very good college athletes coming up soon….infielders Stott and Martin…not to mention the Latin middle infielders along with 20-year olds Simmons or Baylor in maybe three years. So there are guys in the pipeline that need their opportunities.

          1. Romus, I just thought that trading him would not bring back anything, so my plan is to give him a shot. If he doesn’t pan out, his value doesn’t drop from what it is now. The guys you mentioned may all be Major Leaguers, just not this year, so my only point was to give Kingery a shot to sink or swim. I don’t think we are a Playoff team this year, so Kingery doesn’t keep us from contention. Then, in 2022 we have a good player in Kingery, or we don’t, and we see who of Stott, Martin, Simmons and Baylor may be. To me, Stott is our future SS.

  23. This current free agent market is like watching the chickens on the rotisserie spit at the local grocery stores brown…that said, my sense is Jim is spot on – there really aren’t that many teams in on JT at his price, age, and terms. Each day, teams seem to drop off. My guess is Toronto is the only team that could pay his price – does he really want to go to Canada ??? Just say’in – its all about the $$ but I would guess Phillies have that edge culturally and tax wise.

    I fully expect DD is going to do a thorough study of the team’s players. I think he will wait out the free agent market and come in with a number of good players on favorable terms. I believe the Chisox Colome will be the new closer…just waiting for it to all unfold.

  24. sign: realmuto-23m x5

    didi G– 13mx3

    A. bradley 5m x2

    JBJ——10m x2

    o’day—–3M x 2

    Alvarez–2M x1

    Trad segura for Dolis to jays. Eat 6m+ & save 8M

    Hasely, k. simmons, Llovera, f. Morales, Muzziotti, Marchan, Medina, velasquez(pay 2m of 4m owed), for Musgrove (4M), r. rodriguez (1.5Mish)

    Trade Neris young stud reliever- save 5M

    that’s 56m for the free agent signings and 6 M for Musg, r rod, Dolis = 62M – 8 for segura, 2 m for VV, 5M Neris = 47M

    1-Realmuto-.275-360/475/835 27 hr’s

    2-Bohm- .290-365/460/825 22 hr’s

    3-Harper- 270-380/545/925 38 hr’s

    4-hoskins-.250-365/535/900 33 hr’s

    5- Didi- 280- 340/475/815 28 hr’s

    6- mcCutchen-260- 345/445/790 24 hr’s

    7- JBJ- 275-350/435/785 20 hr’s

    8- kingery- 260-340/425/765 17 hr’s

    Bench:
    Knapp
    Holder
    Quinn
    inf.
    Moniak

    1 -Nola
    2-wheeler
    3-efflin
    4-musgrove
    5-howard
    6-Medina

    closer- R. Rod
    s/u-A. bradley
    o’day
    alvarez
    brogden
    suarez
    JOJO
    Dolis
    Hale

    depth:
    rosso
    d. jones
    feliz
    arano
    z. warren
    young stud from Neris TR

  25. I’m looking at these roster constructions with Howard in the starting rotation and I’m not ready to go there yet. I want to see how he looks in ST. He didn’t look right last season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start the year at AAA.

    1. Ranger Suarez was on track for a rotation spot last year. Plus I expect 1 MLB SP to be signed yet.

  26. My hope is that DD will have a plan and then execute it. It’s the same feeling I had when Morey was signed. I think there will be several signings and probably a trade or two of lesser prospects. With the Phils in a money slashing drive, I think that Holder will be the IF backup and one of Segura or Kingery will be traded so they can sign a SS. They won’t want to pay Kingery to not start. Their depth will be very thin. If they sign a CF, I would expect them to trade Haseley or Quinn in a small deal in the same kind of cost saving move. I could see Garlick sticking around as a very cheap 5th OF. We need to see a plan.

  27. Am the only one that gets frustrated with the Phillies handling of young players? That is, does the in and out the lineup, position changes destroy the players confidence? They did it with Kingery, Hoskins went to left field, Hasely. In the past they did it with Crawford, Dom Brown. They even did to some extent with Utley.

    The only one that I recall a strong commitment to was Schmidt his rookie year when he hit less than 200 and Rollins.

    This year should be a year to let the youngster play themselves into or out the lineup.

  29. Guys, Ranger Suarez, Damon Jones, Rosso, Medina and of those other guys are not ready or capable of being a starting MLB pitcher. Your setting yourself up for failure

    1. I agree the loss of a rigorous MiLB season for staff development really hurts. And the Alt. Site chatter really has no significance for me. A glorified practice game isn’t a real game.. Cross fingers for a normal MLB/MiLB season.

  30. Jim, the Phils were bidding against the SF Giants for Harper! Sign JT please! DD will surprise us with remake of the bullpen and I TRUST HIM! Trade Segura and Cutch, cut a lil salary in those 2 moves…Kingery and Haseley shine this year! Need a quality #4 SP still to come…Phil’s win 87 games this and make a Wild Card … see you in lil over 30 days big guy 🌴🌞⚾️
    Stick

      1. Jim I thought I heard that the MLB/MiLB players, coaches and admin. staff would be getting the 1st round of the Pfizer shots in February. How that’s going to be administered is curious since at that time the players and coaches will still not be at ST sites in AZ and FL. I’ll look for the notation. I thought it was MLBTN.

  31. Alvarado! WOW! Great first move for DD. We discussed his insane fastball movement (and overall track record/potential) in one of the past threads, but I think the general consensus was that we’d have to give up way too much for him. However, looks like a steal for the Phillies at this point. Great first move to (start to) address the bullpen weakness. My next GM moves for the offseason:

    1) Catcher: JTR; I think 5/100 gets it done. This is priority numero uno at this point. 20 million against the cap for this year.

    2) Bullpen: Alex Colome 2/14, Keone Kela 2/10, Ryan Tepera 1/3. With JTR in the fold, I don’t think we go crazy and get Liam Hendriks for 30+million. So, next best option would be adding these three arms, IMO.

    3) Rotation depth: REALISTIC GETS: Sign Archie Bradley with the intention of having him compete for that 5th spot. He came up as a starter and would probably like another shot at breaking into a rotation. I would expect there to be a decent amount of interest in Bradley, so I’d offer him the chance to start if that’s what it takes to get him aboard– 2/10 could do it. Also, Trevor Williams–just so he can REALLY get mistaken for Bryce Harper (funny story) if they are both wearing red pinstripes. He got roughed up a bit last year, but he’s still 29 and has a solid mix of pitches. FEEL GOOD/SEXY NAME pics–Would love to see Felix Hernandez, Chris Archer, and/or (for obvious reasons) Cole Hamels make a resurgence with the Phillies in 2021. These ‘sexy names’ might not end up giving much production, but for a few million dollars I’d love to have them on board (particularly King Felix). LONG SHOT–Sugano 3/24. I have no idea what he will end up getting, and the Phillies don’t have a strong track record of acquiring Japanese talent, but I would love to see it. I wanted Tanaka so bad all those years ago before he went to the Yankees, and I think Sugano would look so good in our rotation.

    4) Position player depth: Eddie Rosario for 6-8 million. I don’t think it is outrageous to believe that Cutch will end up being an average contributor this year, so having another quality LF option here is wise. Rosario provides young, affordable, controllable pop from the left side, which we will be missing with the departure of Didi. In keeping with Twins cast-offs, bring in Ehire Adrianza as a switch-hitting infield option. He won’t replace Didi’s production, but he is cheap and always seems to square up the baseball.

    So, to recap:
    JTR –20 mil
    Colome, Kela, 3rd bullpen guy–20 mil
    Bradley, Williams, King Felix –10 mil
    Rosario, Adrianza –10 mil

    60 million in total against the ‘cap’, which is pretty much exactly what the Phillies will have to work with in order to stay under the 210,000,000.

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