I’ll pin this on the site for reference and update as necessary over the coming weeks.

A flurry of activity will begin the day after the World Series ends.  This could be as soon as October 25th if there is a sweep or as late as October 29th if the series goes seven games.  In any case, the morning after the series ends, a bunch of players get to choose free agency and a smaller bunch sees/takes action on their options.

Within five days of the end of the series, teams will have to make any qualifying offers (this year a QO = $18.9M) to their free agents and some transactional shuffling begins, like activation of players from the 60-man injury list (IL) and the outrighting of players off the 40-man roster.

By November 20th, the Phillies and other teams will have selected the contracts of those minor league players who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft whom they want to protect from said draft.  The Rule 5 rules are at the end of this post.

Below you will find all the information available to the public that the Phillies may use to make these decisions.

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Current 40-Man Roster – actually 43 since Alvarez, Dominguez, and Robertson are still on the 60-day Injury List.  These three players have to be activated and placed according to their contracts (rostered, tendered, released, or free agent), so three guys will come off the roster soon after the world series ends.

1. Alvarez, Jose lhp
2. Arano, Victor rhp
3. Arrieta, Jake rhp-s
4. Bohm, Alec rhp
5. Brogdon, Connor rhp
6. Cleavinger, Garrett lhp
7. Dominguez, Seranthony rhp
8. Eflin, Zach rhp-s
9. Hale, David rhp-s
10. Hembree, Heath rhp
11. Howard, Spencer rhp-s
12. Hunter, Tommy rhp
13. Irvin, Cole lhp-s
14. Llovera, Mauricio rhp
15. Medina, Adonis rhp
16. Morgan, Adam lhp
17. Neris, Hector rhp
18. Nola, Aaron rhp-s
19. Parker, Blake rhp
20. Phelps, David rhp
21. Robertson, David rhp
22. Romero, Jojo lhp
23. Rosso, Ramon rhp
24. Sanchez, Cristopher lhp
25. Suarez, Ranger lhp
26. Velasquez, Vincent rhp-s
27. Wheeler, Zack rhp-s
28. Workman, Brandon rhp
29. Knapp, Andrew c
30. Marchan, Rafael c
31. Realmuto, J.T. c
32. Gosselin, Phil 2b
33. Gregorius, Didi ss
34. Hoskins, Rhys 1b
35. Kingery, Scott 2b
36. Segura, Jean ss
37. Bruce, Jay rf
38. Garlick, Kyle rf
39. Harper, Bryce rf
40. Haseley, Adam of
41. McCutchen, Andrew lf
42. Moniak, Mickey of
43. Quinn, Roman of

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Six Players have Contracts in 2021

1. Bryce Harper (13 yr/$330M (19-31)) enters 3^rd year of a 13-year contract, entering age 28 season.  2021 salary $27,538,462.  (zero change over 2021)
2. Zack Wheeler (5 yr/$118M (20-24)) enters 2^nd year of a 5-year contract, entering age 31 season.  2021 salary $22,500,000.  (plus $1M over 2021)
3. Andrew McCutchen (3 yr/$50M (19-21)+22 opt) enters 3^rd year of a 3-year contract, entering age 34 season.  2021 salary $20,000,000.  (plus $3M over 2021)
4. Jean Segura (5 yr/$70M (18-22)+23 c opt) enters 4^th year of a 5-year contract, entering age 31 season.  2021 salary $14,850,000.  (zero change over 2021)
5. Aaron Nola (4 yr/$45M (19-22)+23 cl opt) enters 3^rd year of a 4-year contract, entering age 28 season.  Unadjusted 2021 salary $12,250,000.  (plus $4M over 2021)
6. Scott Kingery (6 yr/$24M (18-23)+24-26 opts) enters 4^th year of a 6-year contract, entering age 27 season.  2021 salary $4,250,000.  (plus $2.5M over 2021)

These six players will account for $101,388,462 (or almost 50% of the salary allowable below the Luxury Tax).  They also represent a $10,500,000 increase in their salaries over 2020.  Note: the “Competitive Balance Tax Threshold” for 2021 is $210, 000, 000.

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Three Players have Club Options for 2021

1. David Robertson ($11M, club option $12M/$2M buyout) entering age 36 season.
2. Hector Neris ($4.6M, club option $7M/$0 buyout) entering age 32 season.
3. David Phelps ($1.25M,club option $4.5M/$250K buyout) entering age 34 season.

These players, if their options are declined, would represent a savings of $14,600,000 based on their 2020 salaries ($16,850,000) minus the cost of buyouts ($2,250,000).  Activating all three options would cost $23,500,000.

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Nine Players are Arbitration Eligible this Off Season

1. Vince Velasquez ($3.6M) enters 3^rd of 3 arb years, entering age 29 season.
2. Adam Morgan ($1.575M) enters 3^rd of 3 arb years, entering age 31 season.
3. Heath Hembree ($1.6125M) enters 3^rd of 3 arb years, entering age 32 season.
4. Zach Eflin ($2.625M) enters 2^nd of 3 arb years, entering age 27 season.
5. David Hale ($800,000) enters 2^nd of 4 arb years, entering age 33 season.
6. Andrew Knapp ($710,000) enters 2^nd of 4 arb years, entering age 29 season.
7. Rhys Hoskins ($605,000) enters 1^st of 3 arb years, entering age 28 season.
8. Seranthony Dominguez ($571,500) enters 1^st of 4 arb years, entering age 26 season.
9. Victor Arano ($570,000) enters 1^st of 3 arb years, entering age 26 season.

MLB Trade Rumors hasn’t published their arbitration predictions.  When they do, I’ll add that information above.  Signing or non-tendering all nine eligible players (at 2020 salaries) would cost or save the Phillies $12,669,000.

Most will probably settle for what the Phillies offer.  Most will likely get raises.  Eflin, Knapp, and Hoskins should get significant increases.  A couple may be non-tendered.

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Sixteen Players are Pre-Arb, One-Year Tenders this Off Season

1. Roman Quinn (1 yr/$569,000 (20)) last pre-arb year, entering age 28 season.
2. Ranger Suarez (1 yr/$570,000 (20)) pre-arb, entering age 25 season.
3. Haseley, Adam (1 yr/$569,500 (20)) pre-arb, entering age 25 season.
4. Cole Irvin (1 yr/$566,500 (20)) first pre-arb year, entering age 27 season.
5. Kyle Garlick (1 yr/$564,500 (20)) pre-arb year, entering age 29 season.
6. Ramon Rosso (1 yr/$563,500 (20)) pre-arb year, entering age 25 season.
7. Alec Bohm (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 24 season.
8. Connor Brogdon (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 26 season.
9. Garrett Cleavinger (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 27 season.
10. Spencer Howard (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 25 season.
11. Mauricio Llovera (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 25 season.
12. Rafael Marchan (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 22 season.
13. Adonis Medina (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 23 season.
14. Mickey Moniak (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 23 season.
15. Jojo Romero (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 24 season.
16. Christopher Sanchez (pro rated $563,500) pre-arb, entering age 24 season.

These guys are all under team control.  Minimum salaries are defined in the CBA.  The number is not defined, but there is a calculation that determines the minimum for each of the last two years of the CBA,  I think the minimum will rise to slightly above $570M in 2021.  This only comes into play when a player is on the active, 26-man roster.  (The minimum salary is determined by the 2020 rate per season plus a cost of living adjustment, rounded to the nearest $500, provided that the cost of living adjustment shall not reduce the minimum salary below the 2020 rate per season.)

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Nine Players are MLB Free Agents after the 2020 Season

1. Jake Arrieta ($20M) enters age 35 season.
2. Jay Bruce ($1.375M) Seattle paid $12.625 of $14M, enters age 34 season.
3. Didi Gregorious ($14M) enters age 31 season.
4. J.T. Realmuto ($10M) enters age 30 season.
5. Brandon Workman ($3.5M) enters age 32 season.
6. Jose Alvarez ($2.95M) enters age 32 season.
7. Blake Parker ($563.5K) enters age 36 season.
8. Phil Gosselin ($575K) enters age 33 season.
9. Tommy Hunter ($850K) enters age 33 season.

These nine guys represent $53,813,500 in salary that comes off the books.

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So, that’s an increase of $10,500,000 for the six players under contract, a savings of $14,600,000 on three declined club options, a savings of $53,813,500 on nine departing free agents, AND the sunk cost of Odubel Herrera’s 2021 contract of $10,350,000 which is a $3,000,000 increase over his 2020 salary.

The Phillies appear to have $54,913,500 available to pursue free agents.  But, keep in mind that any arbitration increases and increases to the cost of the players under team control will lower this figure.  Note that Herrera will factor into 2022 salaries with a $2,500,000 buyout in place.

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Forty Players are First Year Rule 5 Eligible this Off Season

1. Connor Brogdon, RHP (already on the 40-man roster)
2. Spencer Howard, RHP (already on the 40-man roster)
3. Adam Haseley, OF (already on the 40-man roster)
4. Mickey Moniak, CF (already on the 40-man roster)
5. Kyle Dohy, LHP (last assignment Reading)
6. Jakob Hernandez, LHP (Reading)
7. Damon Jones, LHP (Reading)
8. David Parkinson, LHP (Reading)
9. Austin Listi, OF (Reading)
10. Nick Maton, SS (Reading)
11. Josh Stephen, LF (Reading)
12. Andrew Brown, RHP (last assignment Clearwater)
13. Francisco Morales, RHP (Clearwater)
14. Zach Warren, LHP (Clearwater)
15. Kyle Young, LHP (Clearwater)
16. Colby Fitch, C (Clearwater)
17. Dalton Guthrie, SS (Clearwater)
18. Simon Muzziotti, CF (Clearwater)
19. Kevin Gowdy, RHP (last assignment Lakewood)
20. Alejandro Made, RHP (Lakewood)
21. Jhordany Mezquita, LHP (Lakewood)
22. Juan Aparacio, C (Lakewood)
23. Cole Stobbe, SS (Lakewood)
24. Yerwin Trejo, CF (Lakewood)
25. Leonel Aponte, RHP (last assignment Williamsport)
26. Carlos M. Francisco, RHP (Williamsport)
27. Juan Herrera, 3B (Williamsport)
28. Nicolas Torres, INF (Williamsport)
29. Jose Tortolero, INF (last assignment GCL East)
30. Raymond Mora, RF (GCL East)
31. Eudiver Avendano, RHP (last assignment GCL West)
32. Dalvin Rosario, RHP (GCL West)
33. Edgar Made, SS (GCL West)
34. Luis Rojas, 1B (GCL West)
35. Christian Valerio, SS (GCL West)
36. Yeison Sanchez, RHP (last assignment DSL Phillies Red)
37. Juan Santos, RHP (DSL Phillies Red)
38. Brian Mims, 2B (unassigned)
39. Jean Carlos Valdez, RHP (unassigned)
40. Maximo De La Rosa, 1B (unassigned)

The first four are already on the 40-man roster.  Most of the players on this list are too far down the organization to be selected by another team.  In recent years, the Phillies have protected pitchers at the upper levels, one exception being Arquimedes Gamboa who ironically is exposed this season.

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Forty Players are Returning Rule 5 Eligible Players this Off Season

1. Trevor Kelley, RHP
2. Manuel Silva, LHP
3. Rodolfo Duran, C
4. Jonathan Guzman, SS
5. Malvin Matos, LF
6. Jhailyn Ortiz, RF
7. Seth McGarry, RHP
8. Robinson Martinez, RHP
9. Ben Pelletier, RF
10. Obudel Herrera, CF
11. Ronald Torreyes, INF
12. Mikie Mahtook, CF
13. Mark Appel, RHP
14. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP
15. Luke Leftwich, RHP
16. Nick Martini, LF
17. Trevor Bettencourt, RHP
18. J.D. Hammer, RHP
19. Reggie McClain, RHP
20. Jeff Singer, LHP
21. Darick Hall, 1B
22. Luke Williams, 3B
23. Alejandro Requena, RHP
24. Grenny Cumana, INF
25. Gustavo Armas, RHP
26. Joel Cesar, RHP
27. Gilmael Troya, RHP
28. Edgar Cabral, C
29. Nerluis Martinez, C
30. Jose Antequera, 3B
31. Daniel Brito, 2B
32. Arquimedes Gamboa, SS
33. Jose Gomez, SS
34. Bailey Falter, LHP
35. Nick Fanti, LHP
36. Julian Garcia, RHP
37. Jonathan Hennigan, LHP
38. Henri Lartigue, C
39. Cornelius Randolph, LF
40. Gregorix Mateo, RHP

If the Phillies attempt to DFA someone off the 40-man roster, and if that player clears waivers, that player may be Rule 5 eligible or have the time served to elect free agency rather than accept assignment to a minor league affiliate.

This would include guys like Morgan, Hale, Hembree, Velasquez, Quinn, Eflin, Suarez, Knapp, Dominguez, Arano, Sanchez, Hoskins, Cleavinger, Medina, Rosso, Kingery, Garlick, Irvin, Llovera, Romero, Marchan.

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Guys who have options (# remaining)

1. Alec Bohm (3)
2. Andrew Knapp (3)
3. Scott Kingery (3)
4. Rafael Marchan (3)
5. Adam Haseley (2)
6. Aaron Nola (3)
7. Zach Eflin (1)
8. Vince Velasquez (2)
9. JoJo Romero (2)
10. Connor Brogdon (2)
11. Spencer Howard (3)
12. Rhys Hoskins (3)
13. Kyle Garlick (1)
14. Seranthony Dominguez (2)
15. Mickey Moniak (2)
16. Nick Martini (1)
17. Ramon Rosso (2)
18. Adonis Medina (1)
19. Mauricio Llovera (2)
20. Cole Irvin (1)
21. Garrett Cleavinger (2)
22. Victor Arano (1)
23. Christopher Sanchez (2)
24. Reggie McClain (2)
25. Trevor Kelley (2)
26. JD Hammer (2)
27. Arquimedes Gamboa (1)

Last Option Used This Season

1. Ranger Suarez (0)
2. Enyel De Los Santos (0)

 

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This information is important when constructing the 40-man roster.  Not only will organizations try to protect promising young prospects, but they have to build a workable roster to compete with and support the team at the major league level.

As we have seen in the past, the Phillies will acquire new players during the off season that will be assigned to the 40-man roster and fill spots on their major league and AAA rosters.

While the Phillies are trying to build their 40-man roster, other teams are doing the same thing.  So, it will be difficult to trade players “we don’t want” to protect.

And, finally, not protecting a player does not mean he will be selected by another organization.  And if one is, he may be returned by the selecting team.

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Rule 5 Explained

Major League Rule 5 outlines baseball’s Annual Selection of Players.  Section (a) of the rule determines when the meeting takes place.  Section (b) describes the method and priority of the selections.  And section (c) defines which players are subject to selection.

When baseball conducts their winter meetings that conclude with the Rule 5 Draft, only certain players are subject to selection.  Here is MLR5(c).

(c) All players on the Minor League Reserve Lists of Major League Clubs, except players on the Voluntarily Retired, Disqualified, or Ineligible Lists shall be subject to selection by other Major League Clubs at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting in accordance with the following:

(1) A player without previous Major or Minor League service who signs with a Major League Club shall be subject to selection based on the following:

(A) if 18 years of age or under on the June 5 immediately preceding the player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies;

(B) if 19 years of age or over on the June 5 immediately preceding the player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fourth Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies;

(C) if the signing date of a player’s first Major or Minor League contract is between

(i) the conclusion of the championship season for the Major or Minor League Club to which the player is assigned on such contract and

(ii) the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting,

then the player shall be deemed to have signed after the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting, for purposes of this Rule 5(c)(1).

(2) A player who is re-signed by a Club within one year from the date the Club released the player shall be subject to draft at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting following the date of the latest contract with that Club.

(3) A player who has been subject to draft at a Rule 5 Selection Meeting shall be subject to draft at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 2 (Player Limits and Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting.

(4) A player

(A) whose contract has been assigned outright by a Major League Club to a Minor League Club,

(B) who has been signed as a free agent to a Minor League Uniform Player Contract for services in the following year and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2), or

(C) who has been released unconditionally from a Minor League roster and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2),

shall be subject to selection at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 2 (Player Limits and Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting.

(5) A Major League or independent Minor League Club may designate any player on one of its Minor League Reserve Lists to be subject to selection who otherwise would not be selectable under this Rule 5.

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Roster size for the 2021 season may revert back to the previously agreed upon 26 players with pitchers limited to 13 of those slots.

That extra roster spot might have been used by organizations for an extra bench person, but the Phillies’ alternate site was and now Instructs is closed to scouts.  Hard to imagine an organization taking a chance on players who haven’t played in a year and whom they couldn’t scout this summer.