42 thoughts on “MLB Top 100 and Top 30, August 4, 2020”

1. Thank You for your timely updates. Keep up the good work.

2. Curious what the MLB used for HS kids like Abel who had no HS or minor league seasons for evaluations? Did they use their junior year in HS or summer travel ball? Seems like a whole lot of projection…I read a lot of very mixed opinions on Martin… None think his bat will ever get him to the MLB and therefore a total reconstruction is order… I don’t know who is assigned that duty in the minor leagues but with a truncated college season and no minor leagues this year I guess the work starts this fall with instructs…

   1. Good question. Imo they grade the tools.

      With pitchers I think it is easier to grade tools than with hitters. A grade 60 curve ball is a grade 60 curve ball whether it is in a cage session or a WS game 7. It is based on spin rates, velo, shape, etc. this is why some pitching prospects get no love from scouts even though they have great minor league performance. Also why scouts say, “don’t scout the box score.”

      With hitters, they grade the tools also, but I believe that it is harder, because every prospect can hit a fastball and everyone looks great in BP. Being a good mlb hitter comes down to recognizing breaking pitches and being able to time them. And having a really good strike zone. Imo, Moniak is the perfect example of this challenge. I am sure Mickey looked great as a HS hitter hitting fastballs. But he has struggled with strike zone judgement as a pro and from scout accounts struggled with breaking balls.

      This is why I have constantly been pushing to draft high potential pitchers in the first round. Injury risk is real, but I believe it is easier to project pitcher tools than hitter tools.

   2. To echo v1, it’s definitely about tools. They’re using basically the same things that the Phillies used when they decided to draft him that high.

      1. More on this. MLB has Abel’s pitch grades (as an 18 yo):
         – Fastball: 60
         – Slider: 55
         – Change: 55
         – Curve: 50
         – Control: 55

         To put that in perspective, Howard’s grades on MLB (as a 24 yo):
         – FB: 65
         – Slider: 55
         – Change: 60
         – Curve: 50
         – Control: 50

         Nola’s 2014 MLB grades (21 year old):
         – FB: 60
         – Slider: 50
         – Change: 60
         – Curve: didn’t have a grade. not sure if he threw it much back then.
         – Control: 60

         So Abel’s pitch grades and Control profile is ELITE. You are talking about a top of the rotation pitcher profile.

3. Jim – do you know who on that list needs to make the 40 man after this season?

   1. I expect a lot of teams to have a problem with protecting prospects on the 40 man. So I don’t see a lot of poaching off teams. But curious who may be at risk.

   2. With all this uncertainty in 2020, I would expand the 40-man to a 50-man roster. Teams do not have enough game time experience this year to make valid evaluations and the flexibility will allow teams to stay on better footing startung off next year.

      1. I doubt the PA would agree to that. Better for player to become FA than be tied to a club

   3. v1…..here is Jim’s spreadsheet….guys in ‘yellow-2020’.
      Almost 4 dozen….but only about 10 or so that a critical decision has to be made upon
      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C5OpYXSruhVj3ve1RKz299vEKiUX661vsWMZBu_BV4c/edit#gid=0

   4. V1, If my calculations are correct, we’ve got 44 players who are first-time eligible for the Rule 5 draft. One of the spreadsheets in the weekly discussion addresses this. But, here is a quick listing, sans data. The ten players in bold text are on MLB’s top 30 but are NOT on the Phillies’ 40-man roster.

      Haseley (currently on 40 and active rosters), Brogdon, Howard, Jones, Russ, Seabold, Listi, Maton, Moniak, Dohy, Hernandez (Jake), Parkinson, Stephen, Brown (Andrew), Morales, Warren, Young, Fitch, Guthrie, Muzziotti, Gowdy, Made (Alejandro), Mezquita, Aparacio, Stobbe, Trejo, Aponte (Leonel), Francisco (Carlos M.), Herrera (Juan), Torres, Tortolero, Mora, Avendano, Rosario (Dalvin), Made (Edgar), Rojas (Luis), Valerio, Blanco, Sanchez (Yeison), Santos (Juan), Rivas, Mims, Valdez, De La Rosa

      1. Thank you. How many spots do you think that we will have for minor leaguers?

         1. Well, let’s see.

            Six are under contract – Harper, Wheeler, McCutchen, Segura, Nola, Kingery

            Eight become free agents – Arrieta, Bruce, Gregorius, Realmuto, Alvarez, Gosselin, Walker, Hunter

            Two have options – Robertson ($12M/$2M buyout), Neris($7M/0 buyout)

            Ten are arbitration eligible – Velasquez, Eflin, Morgan, Guerra, Knapp, Hoskins, Pivetta, Dominguez, Arano, N. Williams

            Eighteen are pre-arbitration eligible – Suarez, Haseley, Quinn, Davis, Irvin, McClain, Garlick, Kelley, Rosso, Cleavinger, De Los Santos, Gamboa, E. Garcia, Grullon, Llovera, Medina, Romero, C. Sanchez

            All pre-arb guys have at least one option remaining except for Quinn.

            I can see ten or more spots open up.

            I figure the only free agent they are going to sign is Realmuto. Gregorius would be nice but will surely look for a long-term contract. Decline Robertson’s option, exercise Neris’ option. They don’t have to offer contracts to arb eligible guys. They can let them become free agents. Morgan, Knapp, Hoskins, and Dominguez are probably safe. The other six are probably on short leashes. Plus there are probably 3 or 4 candidates for release among the pre arb players.

            So, that’s easily fifteen. Now, of course, the Phillies have to be able to fill out a major league roster. So, that doesn’t necessarily mean that all those spots go to minor leaguers.

            I think that the Phillies only have to protect maybe 6-7 players probably less, all pitchers. I don’t think our position players are at risk because they aren’t going to develop much sitting on a ML bench. The 26-man roster isn’t going to change that. I don’t think Morales is far enough along to be selected. So that leaves Brogdon, Howard, Jones, Russ, Seabold, Dohy, Hernandez (Jake), Parkinson, and Warren as potential candidates. Bold are locks I think.

            Sorry for the long-winded response.

            1. Awesome reply. Thank you.

            2. Great post Jim

4. Would have replaced Baylor with Gamboa at 29

   1. Agreed. Gamboa is a fun prospect. Electric defender. But simply can not hit a baseball.

5. Ouch this list reminds me of how much fun we’re missing out on without MiLB baseball. So much excitement and drama coming into the season about certain guys we really wanted to see and or follow.

   1. We were in heaven and didn’t know, miss the minors so much.

6. We’ve all seen Cole Irvin play; he’s not a prospect without a much better breaking ball. I think MLB is very hesitant to make significant changes from one list to the next.

   Still don’t get Bohm over Howard other than “pitchers get hurt”.

   1. I remember saying a few years ago that pitchers like Irvin are not real prospects regardless of their minor league stats. And the “pitch to contact” fans on this board were sure that I was wrong.

      Guys, “pitch to contact” does NOT work in the major leagues. The contact is too hard. MLP prospects have to have great stuff or they will flame out.

      1. Unless you have a monster sinker (which most pitchers don’t have), pitching to contact is a bad idea at the ML level.

      2. v1 As an avid reader but infrequent poster I have reluctantly come to appreciate your opinions. I’ve tended to fall for players, especially pitchers, (Tyler Cloyd and Severino Gonzales), who you correctly identified as non major leaguers. Not a pitcher but I really liked Tocci too…….Much as your commentary has frustrated me at times I think you have a really good idea about what it takes to make it as a pro.

         1. Thanks Dave. To be clear, I want all of these kids to succeed. I am rooting for all of them. But making it in the majors is really, really hard.

7. Looking at this top 30 beyond the top 4, I can only hope that a couple of the high ceiling talents rise, and sooner than later. Both Garcia’s, Luis and Yhoswar. And Johan Rojas. Pitching wise, I’m intrigued by only a couple of LHPs, Miller and Lindow. And I remain hopeful that Mickey Moniak ultimately arrives to provide a solid major league profile, if not a star. And Casey Martin? Well, there must be something to a few reputable outlets having him in or near the top 10, other than that the system is really weak.

   1. We have a couple dark horses in Kevin Gowdy and Starlyn Castillo. Gowdy was still trying to return to form from surgery and Castillo was limited to nine innings due to injuries.

      I was told that Gowdy struggled with command but seemed to have overcome that by his last three games. I was also told that his velocity has returned. I think he pitched four no-hit, no-walk innings in his final outing.

      Castillo showed me a blister on either his index of middle finger at the start of the GCL season. It reached from the joint to the finger tip. I think he had another issue that further limited him later, but I can’t recall. He only made 5 appearances of 0.2, 2.0, 3.0, 0.2, 3.0 from July 18th thru August 20th.

      1. I still look at Gowdy as basically a 1st round pick. If he could return to pre-injury form that’d be great.

8. A little surprised not to see Logan O’Hoppe listed. I haven’t seen him in person so i’m not in a position to offer a strong opinion, but he seems to have a bat and gets good reviews for his defense, and he’s certainly liked by some on this board.

   The list is also a reminder how even the professionals have difficulties grading kids. Number One Pick Cornelius Randolph not a Top 30 and super bonus baby Jhailyn Ortiz rated so lowly.

   Finally, how do we rate the progress of these kids this summer with no games being played and no chance even to see them practice? An expanded Arizona Fall League will help some.

   1. Agreed. I am a huge fan of O’Hoppe. And he was in the major league camp this year. He is under the radar for sure.

      1. Logan O’Hoppe is #29 on my list.

         Logan O’Hoppe throws out his seventh basestealer in 13 attempts this season to help Erik Miller to a scoreless third inning … Miller sitting 91-92, T93 with a hange-up at 83-85 pic.twitter.com/oekkw7mUuj

         — Mitch Rupert (@Mitch_Rupert) August 3, 2019

         Logan O’Hoppe throws out his second basestealer of the night for Williamsport pic.twitter.com/JfPCAByJgg

         — Mitch Rupert (@Mitch_Rupert) August 4, 2019

         … and … yes for me on doing a reader top 30. I already posted my post draft top 50 a few weeks ago. My opinions are based on pedigree, past performance, and future projection.

         1. Spencer Howard
         2. Alec Bohm
         3. Mick Abel
         4. Bryson Stott
         5. Francisco Morales
         6. Rafael Marchan
         7. Luis Garcia
         8. Adonis Medina
         9. Mickey Moniak
         10. Damon Jones
         11. Nick Maton
         12. Casey Martin
         13. Kendall Simmons
         14. Johan Rojas
         15. Simon Muzzioti
         16. Connor Seabold
         17. Mauricio Llovera
         18. Erik Miller
         19. JoJo Romero
         20. Dominic Pipkin
         21. Cristopher Sanchez
         22. Kyle Young
         23. Deivy Grullon
         24. Colton Eastman
         25. Gunner Mayer
         26. Starlyn Castillo
         27. Jhailyn Ortiz
         28. Carlos De La Cruz
         29. Logan O’Hoppe
         30. Jamari Baylor
         31. Alexeis Azuaje
         32. Ethan Lindow
         33. Andrick Nava
         34. Carson Ragsdale
         35. Jonathan Guzman
         36. Brett Schulze
         37. Juan Aparicio
         38. Ben Brown
         39. Fernando Ortega
         40. Victor Santos
         41. Darick Hall
         42. Baron Radcliff
         43. Kyle Dohy
         44. Andrew Schultz
         45. Garrett Cleavinger
         46. Austin Listi
         47. Connor Brogdon
         48. Zach Warren
         49. Jake Hernandez
         50. Manuel Silva

         1. Hinkie….Colton Eastman @ 24 and Connor Brogdon @ 47?
            I would have had them reversed.
            My reasoning…..I rate a potential closer (55/60 stuff for two pitches) over a 4/5 rotation arm/middle reliever (50 stuff across the board)

         2. I think your list is a good list, though Brogdon seems low. I’m not one to value relievers very highly but I’d take him over Hall and Listi who I think are NP’s. Also I want to believe in Johan Rojas, so I’d have him higher; top 10.

            1. While I like Brogdon, and think he’ll pitch out of the Phillies BP sometime soon, I don’t see him as a closer. The guy I probably should have found a spot for is Addison Russ. For me, he has the swing-and-miss pitch to maybe make him a closer one day. Russ’ splitter is impressive (reminiscent of Hector Neris).

               I understand I am the outlier on Colton Eastman, but I think he has a Jerad Eickhoff ceiling (same type of CB).

9. I remember Riley Pint in 2016 was drafted by the Rockies in the 1st round out of high school… He had 60-70 FB (used to touch 100) and CB that was probably on the 50-60 range. Control was excellent. If he threw a CU I don’t recall because his other two pitches were so dominant.. He was labeled a top of the line MLB pitcher coming in to the draft… His first season of pro ball for the first time he got hit around and started to get the ‘yips’ with his FB command and lost his confidence… He then got hurt and is now still trying to ascend past A ball with the Rockies… He’s been officially labeled a bust. For every high school pitcher like a Jack Flaherty or a Soroka you get 10 Riley Pints.

   1. Ditto for basically every prospect of every profile; most of them don’t work out or are very marginal players.

   2. I loved Pint coming out of High School, I was Wrong again

      1. i can go for a Pint right now.

         1. I was writing something less then got the joke. Well done!

10. Jim, maybe a top 10 or 15 only? I’m not sure how you can go much deeper without having seen most guys play. Allows to throw some of the just drafted guys on the list.

11. Hinkie, I agree with you and have Spencer number 1 and Alec Bohm at #2

12. Pinkie just a questions on where you had Gowdy. Maybe I missed him on you list

    1. Sorry spell check

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