MLB Top 100 and Top 30, August 4, 2020

MLB released their Top 100 Prospects’ List and their Top 30 Phillies’ Prospects List.

Four Phillies made the top 100 – #32 Alec Bohm, #37 Spencer Howard, #98 Bryson Stott, and #100 Mick Abel.

The Phillies’ Top 30 –

  1. Alec Bohm
  2. Spencer Howard
  3. Bryson Stott
  4. Mick Abel
  5. Francisco Morales
  6. Adonis Medina
  7. Luis Garcia
  8. Rafael Marchan
  9. Casey Martin
  10. Enyel De Los Santos
  11. Erik Miller
  12. Simon Muzziotti
  13. Mickey Moniak
  14. Nick Maton
  15. JoJo Romero
  16. Damon Jones
  17. Mauricio Llovera
  18. Johan Rojas
  19. Cristopher Sanchez
  20. Jhailyn Ortiz
  21. Rodolfo Duran
  22. David Parkinson
  23. Connor Seabold
  24. Cole Irvin
  25. Yhoswar Garcia
  26. Deivy Grullon
  27. Ethan Lindow
  28. Kendall Simmons
  29. Arquimedes Gamboa
  30. Kyle Dohy

New to the Top 30 are Abel (#4), Martin (#9), Rojas (#18), Sancez (#19), Y. Garcia, (#25), Lindow (#27), Simmons, (#28).

Moving up within the Top 30 are Morales (#5 from #6), Marchan (#8 from #13), Jones (#16 from #20), Seabold (#23 from #30).

Staying in the same slots are Bohm (#1), Howard (#2), Stott, (#3), Maton, (#14).

Graduating to the Phillies was Adam Haseley (from #4).

Moving down within the Top 30 are Medina (#6 from #4), L. Garcia (#7 from #5), De Los Santos (#10 from #7), Miller (#11 from #9), Muzziotti, (#12 from #11), Moniak (#13 from #8), Romero (#15 from #10), Llovera (#17 from #15), Ortiz (#20 from #12), Duran (#21 from #17), Parkinson (#22 from #18), Irvin (#24 from #16), Grullon (#26 from #19), Gamboa (#29 from#22), (Dohy (#30 from #24).

Those removed from the top 30 were Kyle Young (#21), Daniel Brito (#23), Dominic Pipkin (#25), Kevin Gowdy (#26), Jamari Baylor (#27), Cornelius Randolph (#28), Victor Santos (#29)

De Los Santos, Irvin, and Grullon are on the active roster.  Maybe in this shortened season they gain enough service time to graduate from the prospects’ list.  And Howard should accrue enough innings if he’s ever called up.  (Maybe Sunday, eh?)

For those interested, the biggest moves up on the list were Seabold (7 slots from #30 to #23) and Marchan (5 slots from #13 to #8).  The biggest moves down on the list were Ortiz and Irvin (8 slots from #12 to #20 and from #16 to #24 respectively), Grullon (7 slots from #19 to #26), and Gamboa (6 slots from #24 to #30).

Once again, I’m not going to pick this list apart.  I don’t agree with the inclusion of some players.  But, every list reflects the bias of the person/people making the list.  I haven’t seen any of our prospects play this season.  But, neither have the guys making lists.

Which brings me to our Readers Top 30.  Should we do one at the end of the season?


42 thoughts on “MLB Top 100 and Top 30, August 4, 2020

  1. Curious what the MLB used for HS kids like Abel who had no HS or minor league seasons for evaluations? Did they use their junior year in HS or summer travel ball? Seems like a whole lot of projection…I read a lot of very mixed opinions on Martin… None think his bat will ever get him to the MLB and therefore a total reconstruction is order… I don’t know who is assigned that duty in the minor leagues but with a truncated college season and no minor leagues this year I guess the work starts this fall with instructs…

    1. Good question. Imo they grade the tools.

      With pitchers I think it is easier to grade tools than with hitters. A grade 60 curve ball is a grade 60 curve ball whether it is in a cage session or a WS game 7. It is based on spin rates, velo, shape, etc. this is why some pitching prospects get no love from scouts even though they have great minor league performance. Also why scouts say, “don’t scout the box score.”

      With hitters, they grade the tools also, but I believe that it is harder, because every prospect can hit a fastball and everyone looks great in BP. Being a good mlb hitter comes down to recognizing breaking pitches and being able to time them. And having a really good strike zone. Imo, Moniak is the perfect example of this challenge. I am sure Mickey looked great as a HS hitter hitting fastballs. But he has struggled with strike zone judgement as a pro and from scout accounts struggled with breaking balls.

      This is why I have constantly been pushing to draft high potential pitchers in the first round. Injury risk is real, but I believe it is easier to project pitcher tools than hitter tools.

    2. To echo v1, it’s definitely about tools. They’re using basically the same things that the Phillies used when they decided to draft him that high.

      1. More on this. MLB has Abel’s pitch grades (as an 18 yo):
        – Fastball: 60
        – Slider: 55
        – Change: 55
        – Curve: 50
        – Control: 55

        To put that in perspective, Howard’s grades on MLB (as a 24 yo):
        – FB: 65
        – Slider: 55
        – Change: 60
        – Curve: 50
        – Control: 50

        Nola’s 2014 MLB grades (21 year old):
        – FB: 60
        – Slider: 50
        – Change: 60
        – Curve: didn’t have a grade. not sure if he threw it much back then.
        – Control: 60

        So Abel’s pitch grades and Control profile is ELITE. You are talking about a top of the rotation pitcher profile.

    1. I expect a lot of teams to have a problem with protecting prospects on the 40 man. So I don’t see a lot of poaching off teams. But curious who may be at risk.

    2. With all this uncertainty in 2020, I would expand the 40-man to a 50-man roster. Teams do not have enough game time experience this year to make valid evaluations and the flexibility will allow teams to stay on better footing startung off next year.

    3. V1, If my calculations are correct, we’ve got 44 players who are first-time eligible for the Rule 5 draft. One of the spreadsheets in the weekly discussion addresses this. But, here is a quick listing, sans data. The ten players in bold text are on MLB’s top 30 but are NOT on the Phillies’ 40-man roster.

      Haseley (currently on 40 and active rosters), Brogdon, Howard, Jones, Russ, Seabold, Listi, Maton, Moniak, Dohy, Hernandez (Jake), Parkinson, Stephen, Brown (Andrew), Morales, Warren, Young, Fitch, Guthrie, Muzziotti, Gowdy, Made (Alejandro), Mezquita, Aparacio, Stobbe, Trejo, Aponte (Leonel), Francisco (Carlos M.), Herrera (Juan), Torres, Tortolero, Mora, Avendano, Rosario (Dalvin), Made (Edgar), Rojas (Luis), Valerio, Blanco, Sanchez (Yeison), Santos (Juan), Rivas, Mims, Valdez, De La Rosa

        1. Well, let’s see.

          Six are under contract – Harper, Wheeler, McCutchen, Segura, Nola, Kingery

          Eight become free agents – Arrieta, Bruce, Gregorius, Realmuto, Alvarez, Gosselin, Walker, Hunter

          Two have options – Robertson ($12M/$2M buyout), Neris($7M/0 buyout)

          Ten are arbitration eligible – Velasquez, Eflin, Morgan, Guerra, Knapp, Hoskins, Pivetta, Dominguez, Arano, N. Williams

          Eighteen are pre-arbitration eligible – Suarez, Haseley, Quinn, Davis, Irvin, McClain, Garlick, Kelley, Rosso, Cleavinger, De Los Santos, Gamboa, E. Garcia, Grullon, Llovera, Medina, Romero, C. Sanchez

          All pre-arb guys have at least one option remaining except for Quinn.

          I can see ten or more spots open up.

          I figure the only free agent they are going to sign is Realmuto. Gregorius would be nice but will surely look for a long-term contract. Decline Robertson’s option, exercise Neris’ option. They don’t have to offer contracts to arb eligible guys. They can let them become free agents. Morgan, Knapp, Hoskins, and Dominguez are probably safe. The other six are probably on short leashes. Plus there are probably 3 or 4 candidates for release among the pre arb players.

          So, that’s easily fifteen. Now, of course, the Phillies have to be able to fill out a major league roster. So, that doesn’t necessarily mean that all those spots go to minor leaguers.

          I think that the Phillies only have to protect maybe 6-7 players probably less, all pitchers. I don’t think our position players are at risk because they aren’t going to develop much sitting on a ML bench. The 26-man roster isn’t going to change that. I don’t think Morales is far enough along to be selected. So that leaves Brogdon, Howard, Jones, Russ, Seabold, Dohy, Hernandez (Jake), Parkinson, and Warren as potential candidates. Bold are locks I think.

          Sorry for the long-winded response.

  2. Ouch this list reminds me of how much fun we’re missing out on without MiLB baseball. So much excitement and drama coming into the season about certain guys we really wanted to see and or follow.

  3. We’ve all seen Cole Irvin play; he’s not a prospect without a much better breaking ball. I think MLB is very hesitant to make significant changes from one list to the next.

    Still don’t get Bohm over Howard other than “pitchers get hurt”.

    1. I remember saying a few years ago that pitchers like Irvin are not real prospects regardless of their minor league stats. And the “pitch to contact” fans on this board were sure that I was wrong.

      Guys, “pitch to contact” does NOT work in the major leagues. The contact is too hard. MLP prospects have to have great stuff or they will flame out.

      1. Unless you have a monster sinker (which most pitchers don’t have), pitching to contact is a bad idea at the ML level.

      2. v1 As an avid reader but infrequent poster I have reluctantly come to appreciate your opinions. I’ve tended to fall for players, especially pitchers, (Tyler Cloyd and Severino Gonzales), who you correctly identified as non major leaguers. Not a pitcher but I really liked Tocci too…….Much as your commentary has frustrated me at times I think you have a really good idea about what it takes to make it as a pro.

        1. Thanks Dave. To be clear, I want all of these kids to succeed. I am rooting for all of them. But making it in the majors is really, really hard.

  4. Looking at this top 30 beyond the top 4, I can only hope that a couple of the high ceiling talents rise, and sooner than later. Both Garcia’s, Luis and Yhoswar. And Johan Rojas. Pitching wise, I’m intrigued by only a couple of LHPs, Miller and Lindow. And I remain hopeful that Mickey Moniak ultimately arrives to provide a solid major league profile, if not a star. And Casey Martin? Well, there must be something to a few reputable outlets having him in or near the top 10, other than that the system is really weak.

    1. We have a couple dark horses in Kevin Gowdy and Starlyn Castillo. Gowdy was still trying to return to form from surgery and Castillo was limited to nine innings due to injuries.

      I was told that Gowdy struggled with command but seemed to have overcome that by his last three games. I was also told that his velocity has returned. I think he pitched four no-hit, no-walk innings in his final outing.

      Castillo showed me a blister on either his index of middle finger at the start of the GCL season. It reached from the joint to the finger tip. I think he had another issue that further limited him later, but I can’t recall. He only made 5 appearances of 0.2, 2.0, 3.0, 0.2, 3.0 from July 18th thru August 20th.

      1. I still look at Gowdy as basically a 1st round pick. If he could return to pre-injury form that’d be great.

  5. A little surprised not to see Logan O’Hoppe listed. I haven’t seen him in person so i’m not in a position to offer a strong opinion, but he seems to have a bat and gets good reviews for his defense, and he’s certainly liked by some on this board.

    The list is also a reminder how even the professionals have difficulties grading kids. Number One Pick Cornelius Randolph not a Top 30 and super bonus baby Jhailyn Ortiz rated so lowly.

    Finally, how do we rate the progress of these kids this summer with no games being played and no chance even to see them practice? An expanded Arizona Fall League will help some.

      1. Logan O’Hoppe is #29 on my list.

        … and … yes for me on doing a reader top 30. I already posted my post draft top 50 a few weeks ago. My opinions are based on pedigree, past performance, and future projection.

        1. Spencer Howard
        2. Alec Bohm
        3. Mick Abel
        4. Bryson Stott
        5. Francisco Morales
        6. Rafael Marchan
        7. Luis Garcia
        8. Adonis Medina
        9. Mickey Moniak
        10. Damon Jones
        11. Nick Maton
        12. Casey Martin
        13. Kendall Simmons
        14. Johan Rojas
        15. Simon Muzzioti
        16. Connor Seabold
        17. Mauricio Llovera
        18. Erik Miller
        19. JoJo Romero
        20. Dominic Pipkin
        21. Cristopher Sanchez
        22. Kyle Young
        23. Deivy Grullon
        24. Colton Eastman
        25. Gunner Mayer
        26. Starlyn Castillo
        27. Jhailyn Ortiz
        28. Carlos De La Cruz
        29. Logan O’Hoppe
        30. Jamari Baylor
        31. Alexeis Azuaje
        32. Ethan Lindow
        33. Andrick Nava
        34. Carson Ragsdale
        35. Jonathan Guzman
        36. Brett Schulze
        37. Juan Aparicio
        38. Ben Brown
        39. Fernando Ortega
        40. Victor Santos
        41. Darick Hall
        42. Baron Radcliff
        43. Kyle Dohy
        44. Andrew Schultz
        45. Garrett Cleavinger
        46. Austin Listi
        47. Connor Brogdon
        48. Zach Warren
        49. Jake Hernandez
        50. Manuel Silva

        1. Hinkie….Colton Eastman @ 24 and Connor Brogdon @ 47?
          I would have had them reversed.
          My reasoning…..I rate a potential closer (55/60 stuff for two pitches) over a 4/5 rotation arm/middle reliever (50 stuff across the board)

        2. I think your list is a good list, though Brogdon seems low. I’m not one to value relievers very highly but I’d take him over Hall and Listi who I think are NP’s. Also I want to believe in Johan Rojas, so I’d have him higher; top 10.

          1. While I like Brogdon, and think he’ll pitch out of the Phillies BP sometime soon, I don’t see him as a closer. The guy I probably should have found a spot for is Addison Russ. For me, he has the swing-and-miss pitch to maybe make him a closer one day. Russ’ splitter is impressive (reminiscent of Hector Neris).

            I understand I am the outlier on Colton Eastman, but I think he has a Jerad Eickhoff ceiling (same type of CB).

  6. I remember Riley Pint in 2016 was drafted by the Rockies in the 1st round out of high school… He had 60-70 FB (used to touch 100) and CB that was probably on the 50-60 range. Control was excellent. If he threw a CU I don’t recall because his other two pitches were so dominant.. He was labeled a top of the line MLB pitcher coming in to the draft… His first season of pro ball for the first time he got hit around and started to get the ‘yips’ with his FB command and lost his confidence… He then got hurt and is now still trying to ascend past A ball with the Rockies… He’s been officially labeled a bust. For every high school pitcher like a Jack Flaherty or a Soroka you get 10 Riley Pints.

    1. Ditto for basically every prospect of every profile; most of them don’t work out or are very marginal players.

  7. Jim, maybe a top 10 or 15 only? I’m not sure how you can go much deeper without having seen most guys play. Allows to throw some of the just drafted guys on the list.

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