2019 Draft Discussion: June 3rd

This is the Phuture Phillies 2019 Draft Discussion for comments about the upcoming draft.

The Phillies have the fourteenth overall selection in the first round.  They forfeited their second round pick when they signed free agent outfielder Bryce Harper, as well as $500,000 in international bonus money.

The Phillies’ total bonus pool is only $6,799,590.

Their complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:     14  – $4,036,800
  •   3rd:     91 –     $647,300
  •   4th:   107 –     $478,300
  •   5th:   137 –     $357,100
  •   6th:   167 –     $272,500
  •   7th:   197 –     $213,300
  •   8th:   227 –     $172,100
  •   9th:   257 –     $153,600
  • 10th:   287 –     $144,800

Schedule (All Times ET)

Monday, June 3
Day 1
Round 1 through Round 2 Comp
Live on MLB Network & MLB.com
Preview show begins at 6 p.m. ET
Round 1 begins at 7 p.m. ET
Tuesday, June 4
Day 2
Rounds 3-10
Live on MLB.com
Round 3 begins at 1 p.m.
Wednesday, June 5
Day 3
Rounds 11-40
Live on MLB.com
Round 11 begins at noon ET

This is a forum for draft discussion to keep it separate from other conversations.

As in previous years, I’ll post a place for daily draft discussions until the draft is completed,  then, weekly draft discussions until the signing period is over.  Draft signings will be tracked here – 2019 Draft Tracker

126 thoughts on “2019 Draft Discussion: June 3rd

  1. Let the fun begin !
    Last season, Johnny Almaraz not only drafted his usual low risk/safe players, but he also stepped a little further out on a limb, and took quite a few higher ceiling kids as well. Logan Simmons, Dominic Pipkin, Tyler McKay, DJ Carpenter (didn’t sign), Jake Smith (also didn’t sign), and Jake Kinney were all either HS or JUCO kids with higher ceilings. I’d like to see Johnny A do the same again this week. Here’s one last shot at a Phillies only mock.

    The Phillies have a total bonus pool of $6,475,800. They can spend another $323,790 (5%) w/o being punished.

    ROUND 1 (4.036 million slot)
    Assuming Manoah and Rutledge are gone, it comes down to George Kirby, Kody Hoese, and Gunnar Henderson as the three high-upside candidates under consideration. Kirby could probably demand full slot, while the two position players would seem to come at a discount. Hoese is an older (22 in July) college player. Henderson is a younger (still 17 on draft day) HS prospect. I’d probably settle for …

    * Kody Hoese (3B Tulane) was drafted by the Royals in the 35th round last June, but wisely turned them down. Hoese has broken out in a huge way (.391/.486/.779, 23 HR) in 2019 after two very pedestrian seasons in college. The 6’4″, 200 lb All-American is also a plus defender at the hot corner.

    ROUND 3 (647 thousand slot)
    * Antoine Kelly (LHP Wabash Valley Illinois CC) is maybe the top projection arm available in this draft. The 19 YO 6’6″, 205 lb lanky lefty already throws an upper 90’s FB. Kelly is going to need the help of an earnest development department to learn a breaking ball and changeup. Kelly was picked by the Padres in the 13th round last year, but said, “Thanks. No Thanks.” He has dominated JUCO hitters this season to the tune of 52.2 IP, 21 H, 31 BB, 112 K, 1.88 ERA. He’ll probably command a million dollars (or more) to sign.

    1. ROUND 4 (478 thousand slot)
      * Bryant Packard (OF East Carolina) is limited to a corner OF, but the bat is for real. The 6’3″, 205 lb LH hitting junior is slashing .355/.444/.548, 6 HR this season. While those numbers are very good, they’re down from the .406/.462/.671, 14 HR he posted as a sophomore. Packard also has a very good track record with a wood bat. He was .305/.421/.576, 4 HR in 59 AB’s on the Cape last summer.

      ROUND 5 (357 thousand slot)
      * Ben Brecht (LHP UC Santa Barbra) is another tall/lean lefty. He has put up extra-ordinary numbers with pretty ordinary “stuff”. The 6’7″, 200 pounder used a 89-91 MPH FB, and average SL and CH to produce high K% and low BB% this season (90 IP, 90 H, 18 BB, 101 K). With his size, there’s still some projection left.

      1. ROUND 6 (272 thousand slot)
        * Jared Horn (RHP Cal) was one of the top prep arms that went to college in 2016. Horn has dealt with injuries and personal tragedy (he was the driver of a car that was hit by a drunk driver and killed Horn’s father, little brother, uncle and cousin) over the last three years. Horn’s velo is down from his HS days (mid 90’s then, low 90’s now), but he still has (IMO) one of the besttter CB’s in America. After missing the beginning of 2019 with an emergency apendectomy, the RHP returned to post impressive numbers (69.1 IP, 48 H, 18 BB, 56 K, 1.82 ERA, .200 OBA) this season.

        ROUND 7 (213 thousand slot)
        * MD Johnson (RHP Dallas Baptist) is a senior sign with upside. Even though Johnson is in his fourth season at DBU, he’s still just 21 YO until July. He’s also got great size (6’5″, 180 lbs) with room to add good weight. Johnson has used a four pitch mix, highlighted by a mid 90’s FB and above avg SL to go 93.2 IP, 73 H, 25 BB, 108 K this year.

        1. ROUND 8 (172 thousand slot)
          – Here’s a spot for an over-slot prep player. Two options:

          * Hunter Cope (RHP Mater Dei HS California) is a HS RHP who could look Kyle Young in the eye. He’s 6’11”, 240 lb with a college commitment to Arizona. The 17 YO (won’t turn 18 until July) already throws 89-93 MPH with a good looking breaking ball.

          * Hylan Hall (OF Florida HS) is a toolsy RFer with a Miami commitment. Hall had a coming out party at The Perfect Game National Showcase last fall. He showed plus wheels, bat speed, and arm.

          1. ROUND 9 (154 thousand slot)
            * Ashton Bardzell (OF Hartford) is also a senior sign. I talked a lot about Bardzell before last year’s draft. He is best known for tying Mike Trout’s NJ HS record for HR’s in a season. The 6′ 2″, 200 lb RH OF’er is athletic, yet still a bit raw. He can handle all three OF spots because of his above average speed and strong arm. Bardzell reminds me a little of Hunter Pence because of his batting stance and his sometimes awkward swings. During his four year college career, Bardzell has slashed .306/.415/.542 and slugged 26 HR’s. He’s also had success with the wood bat on the Cape last fall (.316/.415/.491).

            ROUND 10 (145 thousand slot)
            * Luis Trevino (C/1B/DH Abilene Christian) is a third senior sign. He is all bat, no glove. Trevino spent two years at a JUCO before heading to Abalien Christian (the alma mater of Wilbert Montgomery). In two of his four seasons, Trevino has hit over .400.

            2015 frosh season Navvaro JUCO .401/.452/.562
            2016 soph season Navarro JUCO .378/.456/.595
            2017 jr season .366/.422/.509
            2019 RS senior season .408/.496/.630
            Trevino has also had more BB’s than K’s during his career.

            1. ROUND 11 (125 thousand slot)
              * Gianluca Dalatri (RHP UNC) was probably the second best prep arm from NJ in 2016 (behind only Jason Groome). The 6’6″, 240 lb “righty” throws in the low 90’s, and really controls the K-zone (1.96 BB per 9 IP during his college career). Dalatri would be a higher selection if not for a series of injuries that have limited him to just 13 starts and 59 innings over the past two seasons. Before being shut down for the season with a hip injury in April, Dalatri was 32 IP, 29 H, 8 BB, 35 K in 2019.

              ROUND 12 AND BEYOND (125 thousand)

              * Casey Legumina (RHP Gonzaga) has already been drafted twice. Toronto picked him (25th round) as a HS senior in 2016, and Cleveland took him (35th round) as a soph eligible in 2018. Legumina is a smaller kid (6’0, 180 lb) with a power arm (FB has 97 MPH). He has been used in both the Bullpen and the rotation. Last season, he served as the Bulldog’s closer and totaled 48.2 IP, 45 H, 7 BB, 52 K, 13 SV. This season, Legumina looked great as the Zags Friday Night starter. He totaled 24 IP, 14 H, 8 BB, 29 K before being shut down with what appears to be an undisclosed injury after just four games.

            2. * Nick Snyder (LHP WVU) is a guy I’ve been mentioning as a day two pick. It looks like that may be wishful thinking for fans of the local (Cherokee HS) product. Snyder is not ranked at all by MLB.com, Fangraphs, KLaw, or 20-80 Baseball. Snyder is tall and skinny (6’7″, 220 lb “all arms and legs”) and is young for his class (won’t turn 21 until November). He has relied almost exclusively on his well hidden low 90’s FB (throws it 85% of the time) and long extension to accumulate impressive numbers (68 IP, 42 H, 34 BB, 103 K, 2.65 ERA, .179 OBA) this season. Snyder will have to master a second pitch to become a successful reliever. If he can develop a third pitch, he’s a possible MOR starter.

              * Louie Varland (RHP Concordia Univ Minnesota) was a three sport star (baseball/football/wrestling) in HS. He decided to take his talents to the baseball diamond for DII Concordia. The 6’1″, 210 lb RHP uses a smooth delivery and an ultra quick arm to fire some heat. He packs a punch with a 91-94 FB, and was up to 95 mph at the Major League Dreams Showcase last summer. This year, Varland went 55.1 IP, 54 H, 14 BB, 68 K. I’d like to see what Varland could do with some professional instruction.

            3. * Herbert Iser (C Dallas Baptist U) is a soph eligible prospect with a strong pedigree. Iser was rated the No. 7 prep catcher in the nation as a senior in 2017 by Perfect Game. He went the JUCO route as a frosh and dominated there (.322/.352/.567, 11 HR). This season, the LH hitting backstop is slashing .295/.359/.517, 7 HR at DBU. He will, however, need to lower his 30% K rate.

              * Ryan Ward (OF/C Bryant University) is a totally under the radar kid because he plays for a small school (Bryant Univ) in a small state (Rhode Island). However, this guy is a hitting machine who really “controls the strike zone”! The 5’11”, 205 lb red shirt sophomore has amassed two spectacular seasons in college ball:
              2018 … .409/.449/.636, 22 doubles, 5 triples, 8 HR, 21 BB, 10 K
              2019 … .382/.450/.614, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 13 HR, 32 BB&HBP, 17 K.

            4. * Tommy Jew (OF UC Santa Barbara) is an athletic, quick-twitch 6’1″, 185 lb center fielder whose best tool is his plus-plus speed. Defensively, Jew gets quick reads on the ball and shows impressive closing speed, and has an accurate arm. Offensively, he slashed .282/.354/.535, 11 HR in 2019.

              * Carson Maxwell (3B McNeese State) is a 6’3″, 215 lb senior who has been good with the bat and excellent with the glove. Maxwell began his career in JUCO. In his soph season at Galveston CC, Maxwell hit .443/.498/.676. Maxwell’s numbers haven’t looked like that at McNeese St, but he has slashed a respectable .287/.369/.466 in his two seasons there. In addition, Mr. Maxwell has been perfect defensively in conference play. He has never committed an error in a Southland Conference game.

            5. * Brandon Eisert (LHP Oregon St) has started 7 games this season, but has been used primarily out of the BP for the defending NCAA champions. Eisert has been very effective going multiple innings as a reliever. He’s another guy who hates to hand out free passes (1.89 per 9 IP over the past two seasons). Eisert only throws 88-91 MPH, but, hitters have a tough time picking up the ball from his hand. This season, he is 62 IP, 59 H, 13 BB, 74 K, 2.03 ERA, .255 OBA.

              * T.J. Collett (C/1B/DH Univ of Kentucky) has been a mainstay in the middle of the Wildcats lineup the past two seasons. However, the LH hitter’s numbers are down (.259/.340/.494, 10 HR) in 2019 from his 2018 stats (.304/.413/.576, 10 HR).

            6. * Seth Shuman (RHP Georgia Southern) was a day three pick by Baltimore in 2016. He turned down the Orioles, and began his college career as a two sport star at Georgia Southern: QB in the fall/starting pitcher in the spring. Shuman gave up the gridiron in 2018, and saw his performance on the diamond take off this season. The 6’0″, 190 lb RHP went 81.2 IP, 71 H, 23 BB, 104 K.

              * Justin Hooper (LHP UCLA) is a lottery ticket. The good: Hooper has great size (6’7″, 230 lb), throws hard (mid 90’s), and pedigree (was a HS All-American). The bad: Hooper hasn’t pitched in two years (had TJ prior to the 2018 season), and was having trouble with the strike zone (6.4 BB per 9 IP in college) before his arm injury. The thing to maybe hold out some hope for is this … Hooper made the Cape Cod League All-Star team in the summer of 2017. That summer, he went 23.1 IP, 22 H, 4 BB, 21 K after making an adjustment to his delivery. Hooper still has two years of eligibility, but is already 22 YO. This is Hooper from his prep days on the summer showcase circuit.

            7. * Brandon McIlwain (OF Cal) is one of the best athletes in this draft. He’s also got a long story. It goes like this:
              Young Brandon was a two sport athlete/star at Council Rock North HS. McIlwain was so good, he was named the Gatorade HS Football Player Of The Year in Pennsylvania for his work at QB. At the same time, Brandon made Keith Law’s original top prospects list for the 2016 draft. Here’s a blurb from Law’s report in November 2015: “McIlwain is as raw as one would expect a two-sport prospect from the Northeast to be, but his physical gifts and natural baseball instincts allowed him to compete and excel against elite peers during showcase play this summer. McIlwain has natural opposite-field power, and his plus wheels give him a chance to stay in center field, where that kind of power is rare.”
              For some inexplicable reason, McIlwain decided to graduate early (December 2015) and enroll at South Carolina in January 2016 to play two sports. By doing that, he became ineligible for the 2016 MLB draft. Things didn’t work out at South Carolina. McIlwain got little playing time on the football field and the baseball diamond. After a couple of years, he transferred to Cal. With the Golden Bears, he has been moved from QB to RB on the football team. He has also resurrected his baseball career. This season, McIlwain was slashing .258/.309/.435 as an OF’er before breaking his foot and ending his initial campaign on the west coast. McIlwain has two more years of eligibility, but has already turned 21 (three days ago).

            8. You can never count Johnny Almaraz out on a re-draft. Last year, he took Matt Kroon for the second year in a row. Here are a couple of candidates for this week:

              * D.J. Carpenter (RHP Central AZ JUCO) was drafted by the Phillies in the 15th round last June as a California prepster. The 6’7″, 190 lb prospect chose not to sign. This season in JUCO, Carpenter is 19.1 IP, 14 H, 18 BB, 27 K.

              * Jake Smith (Chipola JUCO) is another prep arm from last year’s class (21st round) to get away. This season at his Florida JUCO, the 6’5″, 175 lb RH thrower is 30.2 IP, 29 H, 14 BB, 35 K.

    2. while i generally hate this way of thinking…if they take Hoese, they can probably pay him under slot as he would likely not want to go back to college again.

      i do like his low K rate paired with high ISO.

      but i still really want a power arm

  2. Hinkie I saw mlb they said the catcher, from Oregon was best prospect since Bryce, Best catching prospect in thirty yrs.

    1. Yea and that’s why Rutschman is going #1 overall. Hinkie–tremendous work as always. Of the three round 1 candidates you list, I would most like Hoese.

      MLB.com just mocked Bryson Stott to us last night, which would be a near obvious choice should he still be available at 14, but I doubt that’ll be the case (They have Kirby, Hoese and Henderson going 20, 22 and 23, respectively). Consider me a Corbin Carroll hold out until proven otherwise.

      Also, Keith Law also released his final mock this morning, too, if you haven’t had time to look at it.

      1. Stott would ne a nice selection if does happen to fall tot he Phillies.
        Assume he and Harper have crossed paths in Vegas.

    1. I would hope that the highest rated pitcher is a college pitcher who could be in the majors as quickly as Nola. But,that’s probably more than I should expect. Still, fingers crossed.

      1. When Nola was drafted two lefties were rated around him or above…Colorado’s Freeland and current White Sox Carlos Rodon.
        All three have made their MLB mark….even a college guy like Newcomb did also drafted lower than them.
        Not sure how this year’s draft of college arms compares to that year.

      2. @JimP – I concur. In last week’s thread, I suggested and hope that Johnny A. depart from his hit tool preference and draft a Nola-like profile at 1.14 — medium risk arm college arm who is close to MLB ready.

        I understand that projecting a TOR is hard to project since they don’t grow in trees, but Johnny A. have 30+ other picks to take a shot of developing one.

    2. agree V1, I’ve been suggesting arms, arms, arms in Rd 1 since Johnny A. took over the domestic scouting. McPhail said grow arms, buy bats!!! — I’ve been waiting for that to happen.

    3. V1–I know you don’t trust Johnny A’s ability to evaluate hit tool, which is a valid concern. And I know Kirby can and probably will develop at least one average-quality breaking ball to offset his already dynamic fastball…but with that profile Kirby has as a good a chance to become a reliever as he does a starter, so I think you can get more bang for your buck at 1-14. I’d be happy if they do take him, because he does have good upside either way, but he’s just not my first choice. I know Carroll seems like yet another OF prospect with no glaring, stand out tool. But he’s a complete player; he’s incredibly polished from everything I’ve read. The only downside to him is his small size, but that’s when you start getting into andrew benintendi comps, which I’m staying away from for now.

      Just my two cents.

      1. I think that you are going to have to change your handle to remove the “in” 🙂

        but i have heard many times “likely to be a relief pitcher”. I don’t buy it. pitchers can develop if they have good velocity and command.

        1. Ha, don’t worry, after draft season I’ll go back into hibernation. Fortunately this may all be moot if they wind up with Rutledge.

  3. Thank You Hinkie for all the work you do on the Draft. I have no arguments with your choices, and if I had to choose, I hope Manoah falls, then I would take Kirby, then Hoese. I agree with jim. A College SP who can be on the Nola track is my hope.

    1. matt13…..one thing about Stott fron UNLV…..Vegas proper in the last 10 years has produced Harper, Bryant and Gallo.
      They seem to be a region that has become a hot bed of MLB talent …almost close to the likes of certain parts of Texas, Calif and Florida.

  4. From KLaw this am on his final mock:

    14. Philadelphia Phillies: Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State

    This feels low for Bishop, who was leading Division I in homers early and is still tied for sixth (fourth among major conferences). The Phillies are wide open; I’ve heard them linked to hitters and pitchers, college and high school guys, including Will Wilson, Brennan Malone, Brett Baty, Carroll and Gunnar Henderson.

    1. My worry is that ATL will grab Bishop ….. the Phillies are lucky if Bishop falls to them at 1.14.

      1. Agree with you hear. Not sure Bishop would drop to the Phils but that would be a nice selection if he did.

      1. Watch this video on Bishop…and try not to throw up while watching him take balls in the OF and throwing them in…his arm looks like a 30 arm to me. truly bad. he looks stiff in running to the ball.

        i truly hope they don’t take him.

        1. Well C Randolph has the market covered for an all hit no field LF who can’t hit to save his life. Let’s hope they don’t double down on that….

  5. Romus, this was the first I heard Stott as a possibility. I would love to be able to have a lot of faith in a hitter being evaluated by us, but I still take the SP route. I think Kirby sounds like the reports on Nola when he was coming out.

  6. From everything I’ve heard/read, the Phillies will draft Jackson Rutledge if he makes to 1-14. Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen now believes that will happen.
    .

    .
    I’ve been hoping Johnny Almaraz grabs some high upside players this week, and nobody has as massive a ceiling as Rutledge. Could develop into a Noah Syndergaard … or … could flame out like Riley Pint. I’d be happy to roll the dice on him. This system is need of players with plus tools.

    1. OMG, you’re not kidding about Riley Pint. Drafted #4 overall in 2016 (our Mickey Mo went #1), he’s repeating low A with an astonishing 15.7 walks per game!

      1. I think a major difference between Rutledge and Pint is the lack of a head whack by Rutledge. I remember Pint with a “wicked whack”. Rutledge seems to achieve the same velo as Pint, but with less effort. Rutledge’s breaking ball is also more advanced than Pint’s.

    2. Rutledge has the floor of a back of the pen power arm if he can just retain his health (not a sure thing with guys who throw upper 90’s/T102). He has the ceiling of a Noah Sydnergaard or JR Richard TOR arm.
      Also, at 6’8″, 260 lbs, you’d think he is maxed out. However, if he’s taught to get a bit more extension in his windup, there’s a chance Rutledge could hit even higher velos. The SL is also a swing and miss/plus pitch, especially when hitters have such little time to see it/react to it.

      1. What Syndergaard had that Rutledge is rated lower on, is control.
        Syndergaard when he was 21 in 2014, had a 60 control rating.

        http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=rhp

        Noah Syndergaard: …., DOB: 08/29/1992 Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 60 | Overall: 65
        Rutledge has that one red flag and will be difficult for him, as tall as he is, to find consistency in his delivery to overcome that .
        The Phillies are taking an Aument chance with him IMO……maybe they can work magic if it is there to be worked.

        1. Romus … I agree that pitchers this big who throw this hard have risk of control problems (and injury). However, two points:
          1. Rutledge just turned 20 YO.
          2. Syndergaard was born August 1992, He was turning 21 YO in 2013. MLB.com had his control rated 40 PV/50 FV in 2013 as the Mets’ #1 prospect
          http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/

          I’ll give you the fact that Thor seems to be a little more athletic. However, just as Syndergaard grew into better control, it’s not far fetched to believe Rutledge can do the same thing.

          1. Just checked. MLB.com has Rutledge’s control rated at 45. According to them, Rutledge is actually ahead of where Syndergaard was at the same age. Of course, that’s no guarantee that Rutledge will progress the way Thor did. Just saying the two pitchers are very similar at age 20.

            1. If the Phillies do decide on him, if there at 14, they will know what they will need to do to get him to repeat his delivery for better control.
              And if it works..then he is a TOR pitcher .

  7. I take most of it back. I didn’t realize how poorly the Phillies have drafted since 2000. You can count on 1 hand how many players the Phillies have drafted that got more than 10 WAR when playing for the Phillies: Utley (61.8), Howard (15), Hamels (42.4), Nola (17.1). That’s it! JA Happ has 20+ WAR, but most of it was not with us. Same with Michael Bourn.

    1. Think that is bad..Yankees had really only one for sure over that time frame ….Aaron Judge at the 32nd pick…..Joba, Phil Hughes, ian Kennedy and Gerit Cole….were the others with a total of almost 55bWAR….but most of all of it with other teams

        1. Romus I really will never understand, how people will try to justify how bad the phillies draft. by trying to find teams that draft worse. Its like me a fat guy, looking for fatter guys to say see how fat he is, I am still fat doesn’t make it good

          1. There is not one team out there who consistently can draft year after year in baseball. None. Sure, they can go through stretches hitting on players in say a 5 year span. But after that, they just go back to missing. So yes, when it comes to the baseball draft, we do have to talk about who’s worse because everybody is terrible at it.

            1. rocco/Guru…..soon we can all debate the latest first round pick….hoping that he bucks the odds and becomes the next Mike trout or Clayton Kershaw.

      1. I was talking it over with my buddy, the Blue Jays fan, they are not that much better. The Blue Jays have about 5-10 players in the 10-20 range, but NONE over 20. At least the Phillies have 2 possible HOF in Utley and Hamels.

        It’s not easy drafting baseball players.

        1. It is probably the biggest of crap-shoots of all the professional drafts.
          Like I posted to DMAR….the Rays in 2011 had 10 picks before the 60th pick….they hit on just one…Blake Snell @52.

        2. The Phillies probably had the best draft period in their history on first rounders between 1998 and 2003…that five years produced 175bWAR, between .Burrell, Myers, Utley, Floyd and Hamels.
          The next closest was the Bull in ’68 thru Lonnie Smith’s draft in 1974…103bWAR

    2. Can’t exclude guys who were traded for major league pieces. They were good picks that became productive big league players

  8. From Keith Laws chat today:
    matt: Bishop/Kirby/Rutledge all feel like pretty good scenarios for the Phillies, and is the sense you’re getting that at least one will fall to them? Not that they would absolutely take one.
    Keith Law: I will revise the mock after we’re done here, but they’re not taking Bishop (or the other two). I do think the Phils will get their choice of some pretty good options … Baty, Jung, Langeliers, Carroll if he slips, Wilson. I believe they like Henderson, but I’m lighter on him than the industry, I guess.

    Anyone have the updated pick?

  9. Im ok with left side infield ss or 3rd base. A college lefty would be nice . I have a wierd felling its going to Jung, Allan,Kirdy , Herderson. Slott falls grab him I dont like hes going to fall.

  10. KLaw was wrong, Langoliers to the Braves. Jung went a little higher, to Texas, than predicted. Maybe an underslot deal there?

  11. Hunter Bishop to the Giants is a storybook ending (whether he blossoms into a star or is a bust). He’s a northern California kid, and his mother is suffering from Alzheimer’s disease. Happy for him to be close to his mom.

  12. This will push Stott or a college arm down to the Phillies.

    1. (Moot point now since they took Stott, but…)

      Even the “safe” picks flame out more often than not. Think about Appel, Danny Hultzen, Kyle Zimmer, Dustin Ackley, et al.

      Sometimes you get Nola, but more often than not you get a marginal player or someone who never contributes. Risk vs. reward, and the Phils could really use some top tier talent in their system. Rutledge has that.

  13. Twins draft a guy at #13 that I never saw in the mock drafts. Underslot deal, I suppose.

    Phils have their choice of Rutledge, Kirby, Stott, Thompson.

  14. Stott it is. Ranked in Top 10 in a lot of rankings. Why he fell, I don’t know. Why weren’t you high on him Hinkie? I really didn’t want Henderson

  15. at least Hinkie gets his #6 choice. Thanks so much Hinkie for all your excellent input!

  16. Stott doesn’t have the upside as the other guys I was hoping for, but he fits the Johnny Almaraz mold. Safe college bat.

    1. I wish I could tell you Stott will at least come at a discount, but I doubt that’s happening.

    2. Stott is a very reasonable selection, and seems good value at #14. Don’t dislike the pick, just thought the Phils would go college arm.

  17. Whoa, Phillies select Stott from UNLV. Really thought they would go college arm; was kind of hoping for Rutledge. Hoese would have been interesting.

  18. Bryson Stott
    Nevada-Las VegasSS
    Notes:
    Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 200 | B-T: L-R
    Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
    Scouting Report: After hitting an impressive .333/.405/.474 over his first two seasons with Nevada-Las Vegas, Stott was the USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team starting shortstop last summer—always a good indicator for a player’s draft pedigree. Entering the summer, Team USA coaches believed they were getting an offensive-inclined shortstop who needed some work on the defensive end. However, Stott impressed the staff with his glovework, showing impressive footwork and body control along with accurate throws to the bag. Yet scouts left the summer with conflicting thoughts regarding Stott’s bat, as he showed good bat-to-ball skills but too often with a slap-heavy, low-impact swing. Questions have been raised about his potential offensive upside in spite of the numbers he had posted in the Mountain West Conference, but Stott quickly showed he was more than just a slap hitter early this spring. He’s more consistently tapped into his all-fields power by getting his lower half more into his swing and increasing his strength. That power uptick has come with more swing-and-miss (14 percent strikeout rate through his first 41 games) and a higher walk rate (around 20 percent), but his strikeouts aren’t at a concerning level. Defensively, most scouts believe Stott can stick at shortstop, where he has a plus arm with accuracy and a reliable glove. But there are some who question the pure quickness and range in Stott’s game and believe he’ll wind up being a better fit for third base, where his arm would fit just fine. Stott will record plus run times to first base at times, but scouts believe he’s closer to an average runner who could transition into a fringe-average runner as he puts on more weight. Regardless, Stott should be one of the first college shortstops off the board.

  19. I’m really not a fan of Stott. Was hoping the Twins would take him just ahead of us so we wouldn’t have the chance. Really, REALLY wanted an arm with upside.

    Oh well, hopefully some of his tools trend up and he can be a star…

  20. 10
    Bryson Stott
    Nevada-Las VegasSS
    Notes:
    Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 200 | B-T: L-R
    Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
    Scouting Report: After hitting an impressive .333/.405/.474 over his first two seasons with Nevada-Las Vegas, Stott was the USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team starting shortstop last summer—always a good indicator for a player’s draft pedigree. Entering the summer, Team USA coaches believed they were getting an offensive-inclined shortstop who needed some work on the defensive end. However, Stott impressed the staff with his glovework, showing impressive footwork and body control along with accurate throws to the bag. Yet scouts left the summer with conflicting thoughts regarding Stott’s bat, as he showed good bat-to-ball skills but too often with a slap-heavy, low-impact swing. Questions have been raised about his potential offensive upside in spite of the numbers he had posted in the Mountain West Conference, but Stott quickly showed he was more than just a slap hitter early this spring. He’s more consistently tapped into his all-fields power by getting his lower half more into his swing and increasing his strength. That power uptick has come with more swing-and-miss (14 percent strikeout rate through his first 41 games) and a higher walk rate (around 20 percent), but his strikeouts aren’t at a concerning level. Defensively, most scouts believe Stott can stick at shortstop, where he has a plus arm with accuracy and a reliable glove. But there are some who question the pure quickness and range in Stott’s game and believe he’ll wind up being a better fit for third base, where his arm would fit just fine. Stott will record plus run times to first base at times, but scouts believe he’s closer to an average runner who could transition into a fringe-average runner as he puts on more weight. Regardless, Stott should be one of the first college shortstops off the board.

    COURTESY OF BASEBALL AMERICA

  21. If Stott sticks at Ss then im happy with the pick. The college pitchers are falling maybe for a reason.

  22. All those talented high upside arms still on the board. Rutledge, Kirby, Thompson, Allen, Malone, Priester. I am just left shaking my head again at another Johnny A draft. I thought for sure they would LOVE Kirby. Nice size, 4 quality pitches, hits 98, and throws strikes. i thought he was Johnny A’s type to a T. This seems alot like the Adam Haseley pick safe college bat but nothing special. I hope i am dead wrong and Johnny gets it right for once.

    1. Agree about Kirby. Maybe not great upside, but about as “safe” a 1st round college arm as you’ll ever find, with some projection.

      1. I’m not knocking the Nats. In fact, I wanted the Phillies to pick Rutledge (or Hoese … or one of the other higher upside kids). I’m not knocking Stott, either. He’s been a really good college SS. There is something to be said for “high floor” prospects. He’ll most likely play for the Phillies (maybe as early as 2021). I just feel like you need to swing for the fences with your first round pick every once in a while. Maybe next year.

  23. Bryce is happy with the Bryson selection…they will have plenty of time training together this off-season in the desert.

    1. Romus, I’m in Las Vegas right now on a business trip. I had an exchange with a business associate about the Phillies drafting Stott and Las Vegas’ hopes to attract a Major League team. Given Stott, Cozens and Harper, Las Vegas has a Major League team, I said, it just happens to play 2,500 miles to the east.

    1. They are gambling on Rutledge…his overall control is below average..
      He dropped a few selections.

      Actually the Mets are also gambling…Baty is a senior in HS and turns 20 in Nov…..hitting pitchers almost all of whom are younger than him.

      1. Yea, and the track record for those types in the bigs isn’t the best. But have you seen video of Baty swing/play? His swing looks ML ready already and he has a massive frame with still more room to grow. He was someone I wanted early but I realized even if he was on the board the Phillies, under Almaraz, would never take him.

    1. and LAD drafted another solid player in Michael Busch at 1.31! Both Hoese and Busch are really good picks!

  24. I’ve been screaming for arms since Almaraz is in charge. For a weak draft like thisyear, Stott is a sound pick – a safe college bat with all around tools. While the Phillies did not get the arm that most are hoping for, Stott can project as a player that can hold value for future trade (for an established arm) or an insurance as future 3B if Bohm is traded.

    At least Stott is not an overreach like Randolph and Johnny A.’s picks of college bats (Haseley, Bohm) is showing better results that his HS (C, Moniak) picks.

  25. D’Backs loading up on all the good Corbins. Oh well.

    Stott seems like a safe pick. Between him and Bohm I think we’ll have Franco’s replacement in the near future. With the two of them and Haseley, I think we’re seeing the beginning of the next “core.”

    For now, I think I’ve posted enough. Can’t wait to have these same discussions next year.

  26. 1, what is your take on Stott? I wanted a college arm and thought Kirby would be the pick

  27. PA’s own RHP Kochanowicz and lefty OF Newell are good targets for tomorrow’s 1.91 pick.

  28. I am curious as to how the Phillies draft board looked when it came time to pick, and if Bryson Stott was truly the top rated player on their list, or if they had a pitcher rated higher and just couldn’t pull the trigger on the selection.

    1. I think the answer to that question is pretty obvious – if the Phillies had a pitcher rated higher than Stott, they would have selected the pitcher. I mean, why wouldn’t they? Also, a number of services had Stott among the top 10 prospects in the draft. So it’s not like Stott is a terrible pick.

      That said, it’s very possible that the Phillies factor “floor” and “safety” into their rankings, which might move Stott ahead of a higher ceiling guy like Rutledge and maybe Thompson. Again, not a terrible philosophy, particularly in the first round where you don’t want to completely whiff.

      1. It was just a general curiosity question about whether Johnny A would actually take a pitcher first pick instead of a hitter. In the five drafts he has run, it’s been the bat first pick, and with the exception of Scott Kingery, arm second pick. I just don’t know if he would ever deviate from that formula.

  29. I am so confused every and I mean every thing I read about this draft, was it was a weak draft for pitchers, why do people want a pitcher, even the kid from west virginia pans out as a relief pitcher

    1. It’s not that black and white. The 2019 draft is weak for high end pitchers. I think I heard it was the first draft ever where no pitcher was drafted in the first six picks. However, there were some college pitchers who would have been justified going at 1.14, highlighted by Rutledge, Kirby, and Thompson. Of those three, Rutledge has the most upside, Thompson is the most advanced right now (and is a lefty), while Kirby is probably the safest.

      That said, I tend to agree about Manoah from WVU – he would have been okay, but wasn’t all that disappointed he was off the board when the Phillies selected.

      1. I am not a draft guy like Hinkie,. But I have read about slott . I love the fact that he keeps his hands back, that imo is big. Goes the other way, is plus in fielding bat speed, has a chance to hit 15 hr or more, was ninth overall prospect, taken at 14. I just think without seeing him he is a good pick. safer, Would move thru the system fast. The only knock on him was his footwork at short, they think he might go to third. has rocket arm

        1. rocco….Segura’s contract runs thru 2022….have to figure the plan is for the kid to slide right in at that time.

        2. Actually his knock was 1st step with great foot work to make up for range. He looks like a true SS and makes all the plays hes supposed to which is why they feel even with more size he will stick at short

  30. Watched a ton of video on Stott this morning and I’ll comp him to a Daniel Murphy with much more athleticism maybe not enough to stick at SS but he would profile very nice at 2B.

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