2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, April 22, 2019

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for discussion of the amateur draft and J2 signing period that are about 2-3 months down the road.   I’m providing this space for those who are ready to enter discussion about this year’s crop of prospects.  You can place video, scouting reports, or just comments here.  You can reference these weekly discussions on the menu above.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and J2 signing season.  This is NOT a space for you to continue complaining about past picks and the past/current draft philosophy.  That horse has been beaten to death in  weekly open discussions.  If you must, keep it there.

 

38 thoughts on “2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, April 22, 2019

  1. Here’s how some of the better college prospects fared over the weekend.

    * Nick Lodolo fumbled through his worst start of the year. He surrendered 7 R’s over 5 IP, and allowed 9 H, 0 BB, 3 K. On the season the TCU lefty is 65.1 IP, 51 H, 12 BB, 77 K, 2.20 ERA, .215 OBA.

    * Alek Manoah (have I mentioned I really want the Phillies to pick him … if he makes it to 1-14) is a monster. The 6’6″, 260 lb WVU RHP dominated Kansas 9 IP (115 P), 0 R, 3 H, 0 BB, 15 K.
    Over his last three starts, Manoah has totaled 26 IP, 0 R, 10 H, 0 BB, 41 K. His 2019 season looks like this: 69.2 IP, 41 H, 15 BB, 95 K, 1.81 ERA, .170 OBA.
    You can view Manoah here in the Mountaineer highlights (gotta love the dark uniform on him {better look/more slimming}).

    * Zack Thompson keeps on humming along. The top ranked LHP for June was 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K vs Tennessee. For the season, Thompson has totaled 62.2 IP, 42 H, 20 BB, 91 K, 2.15 ERA.

    * George Kirby looked fantastic as he went the distance in a win over William and Mary. Kirby totaled 9 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 11 K. In 2019 Kirby is 64.2 IP, 52 H, 5 BB, 76 K, 2.64 ERA, .214 OBA.

    1. On Thursday night, Arkansas hosted Mississippi State. That contest featured three pitchers who could be in play for the Phillies with their 3rd round pick. I’ve been mentioning State’s Ethan Small as a top candidate for that #91 overall pick. He looked good again 6 IP, 3 R, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K (including a milestone).

      The Bulldog’s LH “ace” is now 60 IP, 37 H, 16 BB, 103 K, 2.10 ERA, .176 OBA for 2019.

      Arkansas’ Isaiah Campbell should also go in that third round area. The big (6’4″, 225 lb) right hander went 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 10 K. This season, he’s 66.1 IP, 50 H, 10 BB, 78 K, 2.44 ERA, .208 OBA.

      Razorback closer Matt Cronin (another 3rd round possibility) K’d 3 in 1.1 IP.

      1. Another pitcher I’ve been campaigning for (4th or 5th round) is Jared Horn. After missing the first month of the season with an emergency appendectomy, the RHP from Cal is warming up. This weekend, he shut down the #1 team in the nation, UCLA. Horn went 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 10 K. Over his last two starts, he is 16.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 5 BB, 19 K.

        1. Would love if the Phillies got Manoah in the 1st and Horn in 4th or 5th. Horn was highly sought after in 2016 coming out of HS and throwing in the mid 90s but decided to go to Cal and hasn’t really performed that great his 1st 2 years but lately seems to be figuring it out. Shut down #1 UCLA in his last start with 10Ks

      1. The only arm I want in round one is any one who can be up here as a TOR within 2 yrs, and still attached to his shoulder.

      2. Here you go 8mark …

        As far as the top bats are concerned:

        * Hunter Bishop has become human. This weekend against Utah, he was 3 (2 singles, 1 double) for 13, 3 BB, 5 K. For the season, Bishop is .380/.508/.840, 17 HR’s.

        * JJ Bleday showed why he is one of the top hitters in college baseball in leading Vanderbilt to a sweep of Alabama. The LH hitting OF’er was unstoppable: 5 for 14 (4 HR’s, at least one in each game), 4 R, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K. For 2019, Bleday is .363/.462/.796, 20 HR and is certainly going to be drafted before 1-14.

        * Texas Tech 3Bman Josh Jung went 4 for 11 (double and HR), 4 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K. in a series with Baylor. Jung may now be in play for the Philies at 1-14. In 2019, he is .312/.443/.522, 5 HR. Coming in to this season, Jung was thought to be a top 10 pick after a monster sophomore campaign .392/.491/.639, 12 HR.

        * Kameron Misner was another guy expected to be out of range for the Phillies. However, the Missouri LH hitting OF’er is suffering through a very pedestrian junior season, and could now be an option for the Phils. Misner was 2 for 9 (double) vs Georgia (who probably has the most talented pitching staff in the country), 2 BB, 5 K, 1 SB. For 2019, Misner is just .267/.452/.493, 9 HR, 16 SB in 17 attempts.

        * Logan Davidson was mocked to the Phillies by BA. He was 2 for 12, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB as his Clemson squad was swept at home by Duke. This season, the switch hitting SS is .278/.391/.544, 10 HR, 14 SB in 16 tries.

        * Michael Busch was mocked to the Phillies by CBS’ Jeff Ellis. He went 5 for 15 (2 doubles & a HR), 5 R, 2 RBI, 5 BB, 5 K, 1 error in a sweep of BC. This season the Tar Heel 1Bman is .295/.454/.611, 12 HR. You can witness Busch’s HR at the 0:30 mark of these highlights.

        1. We drafted Logan Davidson a few years ago but were unable to sign him. He was a highly touted North Carolina high school shortstop. He opted to attend Clemson. I remember reading that he is highly skilled with all the tools but really hasn’t put it together in a big way while in college.

          1. Big Phan … yes, Almaraz picked Davidson in the 30th round three years ago (the famous/infamous 2016 draft). He followed in his father’s footsteps and attended Clemson to play for the Tigers. He is all tooled up (power, speed, glove) with a still projectable body at a premium position (SS). The knocks on Davidson are his K-rate and two miserable summers with a wood bat on the Cape.

  2. Also … JJ Goss (HS RHP from Houston) is a guy I have been/continue to push for at 1-14. This week, he tossed a 5-inning no hitter. Just two weeks ago, he authored a perfect game. I’m assuming (don’t know for sure) he could probably be had for some sort of discount.

  3. McDaniel/Longenhagen now have Hunter Bishop (#9), Bryson Stott (#10), Alek Manoah (#11), Josh Jung (#13). Any of those players would be good/great choices for Johnny Almaraz if they make it to 1-14.

    1. Good work Hinkie. That Ethan Small seems intriguing. With those numbers, will he still be there in the third round?

      1. I really like Ethan Small. He reminds me a little bit of Alex Wood.
        Fangraphs has Small at #117 overall. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen get a lot of their information from MLB scouts so I think their rankings have some validity. The Phillies third round selection is #91 overall so Small seems to be a reasonable option there.
        BTW … Isaih Campbell (Arkansas) is moving up the Fangraphs BOARD. He’s now at #86 and Michigan lefty Tommy Henry has fallen to #89. All three of these guys fit the Johhn Almaraz “type”. College guys with low BB rates (all under 2.5/9 IP). I could see Almaraz picking any of them in the third round.

  4. During his four year run as Scouting Director, Johnny Almaraz has shown a propensity to go shopping at Dallas Baptist University for prospects. He’s drafted four players from the school in that time. Here are a few possibilities for this year:

    * Jackson Glenn (Jr 3B) transferred in to DBU this season after a couple years in JUCO. His 2018 JUCO season was kind of great (.403/.453/.699 14 HR’s). His 2019 season hasn’t produced those kind of numbers, but his slash line is still very good (.342/.410/.521 4 HR’s).

    * Luke Bandy (Jr OF) a likely day 3 pick, slashing .340/.430/.515 this season.

    * Luke Eldred (RS soph) is a big (6’5″, 255 lb) RHSP like his father Cal was. Eldred has battled injuries throughout his college career. He’s pitched just 66.2 innings in three years. He’s totaled 63 H’s, 9 BB’s, 57 K’s.

    * MD Johnson (sr RHP) Johnson is a senior, but will still be just 21 YO on draft day. He’s got good size (6’5″, 180 lbs), and is having the best season of his college career (56.2 IP, 34 H, 13 BB, 63 K). He throws low 90’s and features a sharp breaking ball.

    https://2080baseball.com/draft-prospect-video/md-johnson/

  5. Fangraphs has released it’s first mock draft. They only go ten deep because they actually mock based on what they are hearing clubs are thinking. After that, “the information gets much spottier at this juncture of the draft”.
    You can click below to read their explanations, but I’ll give you the abridged version here:

    1. Oroles … Adley Rutschman
    2. Royals … Bobby Witt, Jr.
    3. White Sox … Andrew Vaughn
    4. Marlins … C.J. Abrams
    5. Tigers … Riley Greene
    6. Padres … Nick Lodolo
    7. Reds … J.J. Bleday
    8. Rangers – Alek Manoah
    9. Braves – Hunter Bishop
    10. Giants – Bryson Stott

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-1-0-the-top-ten/

    In this scenario, the Phillies could choose from a list that could include: Zack Thompson, George Kirby, Josh Jung, Michael Busch, Kameron Misner, Braden Shewmake, Will Wilson, Corbin Carroll, Nasim Nunez, JJ Goss, Brennan Malone, Matthew Allan, and Jack Leiter.
    Of that group, Misner may be the most interesting. He is the opposite of Hunter Bishop and Alek Manoah. Bishop and Manoah were two high ceiling guys I believed had a good chance to be available for the Phillies at the beginning of the season. Misner (who homered and doubled in a win over Missouri State last night) is another high ceiling guy whom I/pretty much everybody thought would be a sure top ten (maybe even top five) pick. He has had a pedestrian 2019 after a fantastic 2018.

    My dark horse pick for 1-14 is Aaron Schunk (I know you’re going to like that, Deacon Phil). Nobody lists him as a first rounder, but every time I see him, I think more and more of him. He could be another Jonathan India … an SEC 3Bman who has a big junior year to vault himself into the first round. He’s an excellent defender, and is really coming into his own with the bat. Last night, he launched a laser shot HR in Atlanta’s Sun Trust Park. IMO, he should only continue to improve his offensive game when he gives up his role as the Georgia Bulldog’s closer.

      1. I wanted to go to that game last night Hinkie but I had a conflict – plus that ballpark is a nightmare to get to. Aaron is having quite a year though. One of the best players on one of the best teams. If he keeps going like this he could very well enter the first round conversation. I’ll be happy for him wherever he ends up but would love to see him in the Phillies org.

    1. Hinkie…..Schunk could very well be the the 5th year in a row they go with a position player.
      Johnny A. will really be tested for sure.

  6. Hinkie, I can’t thank you enough for the work you do on this. My choice is the best available SP when we draft. I lack a great deal of confidence in our ability to draft a first round hitter. I am not complaining about any pick, I am simply stating that, in the first round, we have much more success with Pitching. Yes, “past performance does not equal future success or vice versa”, but also “those who fail to learn from History, often repeat it.”

  7. Happy to see Alec Bohm off to great start (even if he is a level too low IMO). Despite Bohm’s success, the Phillies should continue to replenish their system with 3Bmen. To me, this draft is well stocked at the position.

    Round 1 candidates:

    * Josh Jung (Texas Tech) wasn’t expected to be available at 1-14, but is looking like that can now be a possibility. Jung can handle 3B now (has even played a little SS this year), but there are questions if he’ll be able to stay at the hot corner for the long haul. In 2018, Jung slashed .392/.491/.639 12 HR. This season, he’s at .317/.447/.528 5 HR.

    * Aaron Schunk (Georgia) isn’t currently listed as a first rounder, but I believe he’ll end up there over the next six weeks. He’s one of the top two way players in college baseball, but he’s a 3Bman all the way as a major leaguer. Schunk is a very good defender and is having his best season with the bat .341/.373/.539 7 HR.

    UPDATE … I got to ask Kiley McDaniel about Schunk in his chat today:

    Hinkie
    I like Aaron Shunk a lot. What is his draft ceiling? Could he be another Jonathan India … SEC 3Bman with a big junior season who ends up in the top half of the first round?
    Kiley McDaniel
    Talked to a few scouts about him last weekend when I was at UGA. chance for 5 hit/power, maybe 6 glove at 3B, some want to try him behind the plate, it’s a poor man’s Matt Chapman if you squint a bit. Both had colleges that didn’t optimize the approach/swing for pro ball, so you have to dream to reach the ceiling more than you’d like for a college player. Schunk likely goes 35-60.

    I’ll take a Matt Chapman comp (poor man’s version or not) on the Phillies 1-14 pick.
    McDaniel says Schunk likely goes 35-60. That means Klentak would need to deal for a competitive balance A draft pick. That’s probably not going to happen. Or Johnny Almaraz could take Schunk at 1-14 for a most likely sizable discount. That sounds good to me.

    1. Round 3 candidates:

      * Kody Hoese (Tulane) is having a tremendous year and, to be honest, may be unatainable for the Phillies (not good enough for 1-14, but way too good for their round pick #91 overall). Hoese has broken out as a junior slashing an incredible .417/.500/.881 and launching 21 HR’s.

      * Nick Quintana (Arizona) was projected to be a second round pick with the chance to rise into the first round at the beginning of the season. The 5’10”, 185 lb former Red Sox draft pick (2016 11th round) has been good, but not great in 2019 (.312/.458/.560 8 HR’s, but a 23 K%), and has fallen back on the Fangraphs draft BOARD (#72) so I’m including him as a possible pick (maybe) at #91.

      1. Rounds 4 thru 6:

        * Davis Wendzel (Baylor) is a favorite of mine. Aside from his Justin Turner look (long hair and beard), he is just fun to watch. At 6’0″, 200 lbs, he’s as athletic defender and has been an offensive dynamo this year .386/.497/.654 8 HR’s.

        * Brandon Lewis (UC Irvine) is a big (6’3″, 215 lb) RH hitting 3Bman. He spent his previous two seasons tearing up the JUCO ranks (batted over .400 and belted 26 HR’s over the course of 2017 and 2018). This season as an Anteater (UC Irvine probably has the best school nickname in the country), Lewis has totaled .345/.439/.676 11 HR’s. He is not very athletic, and may end up at 1B before too long.

        * Spencer Steer (Oregon) authored two pretty unspectacular seasons in the Pac 12 before showing his worth on the Cape last summer using a wood bat to slash .304/.351/.481 and hit 5 homers in 135 AB’s. He’s followed that up by totaling .357/.466/.552 6 HR’s this season. He’s a smaller guy (5’10, 185 lbs) and plays some SS and 2B as well.

  8. … and … shout out to Nick (whoever you are), who got this Phillies question answered by Kiley McDaniel today:

    Nick
    What are the chances Hunter Bishop or Bryson Stott is available at 14 for the Phillies?
    Kiley McDaniel
    Bishop 5%, Stott 15%

    .

    If one of those two players somehow becomes available at 1-14, Johnny Almaraz should race to the podium (I know this isn’t the NFL, but it sounds good) to announce the Phillies selection!

    1. Jim, I propose you change the name of this thread to Hinkie’s Amateur Draft Central. He’s earned it.

  9. TRIVIA QUESTION
    On this date, April 25….

    What year was MLB’s first amateur draft?
    Who was selected as 1-1?
    Which team selected him?

    1. (Correction: sorry, the draft wasn’t on Apr 25, but the player selected did something heroic on this date in 1976 – on the field of play but not related to game action.)

        1. Nice work, Romus. Rick Monday, CF Arizona State, selected 1-1 by the Kansas City Athletics in 1965s inaugural amateur draft.

  10. I know this is the MLB draft thread … but … very happy and excited to see the Eagles to draft Boobie Sanders !!!! He’s going to be fun to watch !!!

  11. I’m gonna go off the beaten path for a possible late round pick from West Chester U in 1B/3B Jared Melone. Was sorta shocked he didnt get drafted after having a break out year last year. So far this year is .433/.517/.733, I know its D2, but could be worth taking a flier plus would be a cheap senior sign. I’ll be going to some ACBL games this year so hopefully I get to see some possible mid to late round guys there.

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