Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #3

Jorge Alfaro was your selection as the #2 prospect in the Phillies’ organization.  Alfaro garnered 199 of 394 votes (51%).  Mickey Moniak, the Phillies #1 pick in the 2016 Rule 4 Draft, finished second with 128 votes (32 %).

Alfaro joined the Phillies in 2015 as part of the Cole Hamels trade with Texas.  He arrived in Clearwater on the DL and worked out at the Complex.  I first saw him while watching a GCL game.  He was taking live BP on Carlton Field.  I was impressed with his build and his power.  This past spring I watched him school the other catchers during their drills on Ashburn Field.  He threw line drives to second base.

Alfaro posted a .285/.325/.458/.783 slash at Reading in 2016 with 15 HR in 404 AB.  Alfaro defense has been questioned, but he had a very respectable .993 Fielding Pct. with 6 errors and 7 passed balls.  He threw out 44% of potential base stealers (33 of 75).

Next up is your selection for the #3 prospect in the organization.

Selections so far –

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Jorge Alfaro

 

62 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #3

  1. Roman Quinn here for me, although I know I’m probably in the minority. My belief and hope here is that Roman takes his opportunity this spring and runs with it and makes the team as a starting OF on opening day. I think we all agree the potential here is huge if he can stay healthy and ranking him 3rd as I have might be really looking at the glass half full regarding his health. I believe if he can stay healthy this year, he is a legit rookie of the year candidate. Would love to see a Quinn, Crawford, Herrera top of the order lineup by June.

    1. Yeah. He just has these weird injuries. I’ve been voting for him and attributing the injuries to bad luck. He’s already had a career’s worth of injuries right in the beginning. It will even out, and he’s going to be clear for the rest of it. Well we can only hope.

    2. If healthy, Quinn will definitely be a starting OF in Philly on opening night. RF or CF is to be determined. The 40 man is certainly contributing to that situation

  2. Quinn is that dynamic new toy you get for your kids but you find out he doesn’t come with batteries. Then you get the batteries and find out there’s a part missing. Then you get the missing part and receive a recall notice from the manufacturer because unsafe wiring that might cause an explosion. Mickey Mo here.

    1. A good way to put it or if I said, you get in your time machine and rush ahead 10 years and found Quinn plays at a very high pace but for 80 games a year. He spends 82 games in the trainers room working out some kink or something. Where would you rate him today? 80 games is useful but you need another guy to fill the other 80+ games. Maybe 20 on the top 30, might be a good place for him. So he’s somewhere between a top 5 and top 20 pick.

      Quinn’s in my top 10 but not my top 5.

      1. I like Quinn too and his talent is electric, but when you look at injuries, you have to ask yourself – are these “one off” injuries or do they show a pattern that is likely to be repeated and are these the type of injuries that could hurt his long-term effectiveness (a classic example is a pitcher’s shoulder injury which, let’s face it, usually dooms a career). On the second question, I don’t see (yet) that they are the type of long-term injuries that limit his effectiveness (only one could have done that – the Achilles tear – but he seems fully recovered). On the first question, after reserving judgment for a long time, I reluctantly conclude that I think that Quinn is probably going to be fighting off one injury or another most years – I do think some people are more susceptible to muscle and tendon injuries and I think Quinn probably falls in this category. I hope I’m wrong about this and he turns into a model of durability, but I think he’s just injury prone and it hurts his prospect status. I still have him in the top 10, but he’s not in the top 5 anymore. And, by the way, injury issues are not his only challenge. We still don’t know if his hit tool will play at the major league level.

  3. Here’s a list of the Phillies toip 10 from Bengi Chase at Fansided. Don’t know much about him or the website but it sure is interesting.

    1) Moniak
    2) Crawford
    3) Williams
    4) Ortiz
    5) Kilome
    6) Alfaro
    7) Sixto Sanchez
    8) Gamboa
    9) Medina
    10) Quinn

    I have my top 18 picked so far and Gamboa and Medina aren’t there yet. I especially like Medina but was a little concerned about his lack of Ks. This guy points out that Medina doesn’t have a lot of swing and miss but has a lot of swing and weak contact. It goes to show there are a lot of guys in the organization with big upsides who are kind of lost in the discussion.

      1. Very interesting article, the writer seems to know our system well. I agree with him on Moniak and Crawford. Kilome and Sanchez are 2 pitchers to get really excited about.

      2. Crawford’s analysis leaves open too many questions, based on the fact, those he has talked to have concerns about Crawford..”but the more I talked with guys outside of the system, the more I heard concern on Crawford”…..but he purposely does not mention the concerns. There are ways of constructively mentioning a person’s weaknesses, especially if they can be overcome with experience.

    1. Gamboa at 8 is ridiculous. We’ve all heard he’s a great athlete, but he hit .200 at Williamsport. It’s hard, at this point, to justify putting him in the top 20, let alone at 8. Likewise, Ortiz at 4 is a pretty big stretch, but I could seem him somewhere from about 12-20 and he could climb fast this year (or drop off the map). Medina is defensible at 9 – 3 good seasons (even if they are partial) under his belt and great reports on his stuff.

      1. I have Ortiz 22 and Gamboa 33. Gamboa is more likely to be the second coming of Freddy. I actually like Grenny Cumana better than Gamboa at this point.

        1. Consider the source too – the guy who wrote the report thinks the Phillies’ A-level minor league team plays in “Lakeland” – why do we give this report any credence?

          1. I wouldn’t crush the guy for that. It’s an easy mistake to make, and doesn’t mean he isn’t credible. His rankings of Ortiz and Medina are much better reasons to question him.

            1. Well, I did rip him on his rankings, but not Medina – that’s defensible – gamboa and Ortiz really are not.

      2. Gambia was a sure out for three quarters of the season, but hit well, especially in the clutch, during the last quarter — Better the last than the first. Let’s see if he can maintain his level of hitting this year.

      3. You’re absolutely right catch. It is ridiculous, and has the effect of discrediting the remainder of the rankings. Gamboa at 18 would have been absurd. One thing this system has is depth, and Gamboa is not in the top 20 by any stretch of the imagination. I’m at 38 on my personal list, and Gamboa is in a pool of unranked players who I continue to draw from, and he’s no where close to coming up in the next 10 picks or so.

        1. It does seem high given the lack of buzz, but the author seems to think he is an 80 level defender at the SS position and that is unbelievably rare.

          1. In order to justify that ranking him that high on defense alone he’d have to be another Ozzie Smith or Omar Vizquel – I’ll believe it when I see it.

  4. The healthy Roman Quinn could go as high as #2 for me. The injury prone Roman Quinn we’ve had could fall out of my top 10. The injuries are why Quinn is so tough for me, and I’m guessing a lot of others, to rank.

    1. JerryS….agree.
      Quinn just has too many soft tissue injuries from oblique’s, to quads to Achilles.
      Could be a dietary deficiency somewhere or just plain bad luck.
      And is known…he is a difference maker when healthy.

    2. Jerry,

      Agree on Quinn. I ranked him 6th but would go higher if not for the injury issue.

      Meanwhile, I voted Hoskins #3 based on what I think is the strong probability that he’ll reach his projection or most of it. As I’ve said before, I think he’s a 25HR, 80-90 RBI, high OBP guy, which overcomes his positional limitations.

      I’d like to vote Moniak higher than the #4 where I have him now, but it’s hard for me to do that given how far away he is and all that can happen getting there. However, if he tears it up at Lakewood and maybe even moves higher before the year is out, I’ll gladly move him up. Ditto Ortiz, Kilome and Sanchez from whatever level they start this year.

  5. In terms of how I rank I have already graduated Quinn to the MLB. I do like him a bunch but also concede he may have bad genetics in terms of his muscles.

    Shame of it is you look at his build and see he is such a fast twitch guy. I can’t recall another player like that. Usually its the bulky guys. Having said all of that I do think if deployed properly he could be a useful piece.

    I definitely believe if Quinn could stay healthy is a 100+ WRC player.

    1. Agree, DMAR. I’d rather disqualify Quinn as a prospect because of a)his injury bug and b) his development to the big league level. He could and even should be no less than A GAME CHANGER OFF THE BENCH. He’s fun to watch and painful to follow. I would agree if we all agreed to release him from the poll. He creates a lot of confusion and difficulty for us to rank him with any clear guidelines.

  6. I had Mickey here all day, and I originally had Roman next, but after making my rankings as objectively as I could, I included him being a part time player as his floor (playing half a year due to injury).

    When I factored that in and ran the numbers, he came out 8th. So begrudgingly, I will have to go for pitchers next, since I am even more suspicious of Nick Williams and Cozens.

    1. Agreed on Williams and Cozens.

      I am not sold on Williams AT ALL – I don’t doubt the raw tools, and I don’t factor into my analysis his “run-ins” with the manager (not excusing Williams for not running out balls, etc. . . – but the manager seemed like a jerk and is gone), I don’t like the strikeouts and plate judgments problems, I don’t like the reports of his in-game fielding deficiencies, and I don’t think he has shown the raw power to overcome those shortcomings. When I think of Williams and his potential I also think about Jeff Francoeur. If you just went to a baseball field and watched Francoeur he would impress the hell out of you (when I saw him in ST in 2015 – man, just in BP and watching him on the field, he looked like the most talented player). He’s a great guy. He plays hard. He’s pretty fast. He has a laser arm. His hit tool isn’t awful and he’s got some serious power. But he’s still not a good ballplayer because he has awful plate discipline, doesn’t have elite power or hit tool, and, for all of his athletic abilities, he’s still not an above-average outfielder. I have this sneaking suspicion that Williams will end up being like Francoeur, tantalizing with his tools, but just not putting those tools together in a way that makes him a functionally effective major league player. For Williams not to fall into this rut, he’s going to have to do one or two of the following: (a) hit for big time power (at least 25-30 homers and a lot of doubles); (b) refine his hit tool to the point where he can hit at least .285 or so; (c) draw a lot more walks; and/or (d) develop into an elite fielder. As you can see from the explanation above, Francoeur was not able to do any of these things (not for lack of trying, mind you), so he’s just an extra player on a major league team, although he’s kind of a neat player to pinch hit and bring off the bench (and a great role model and teammate).

      On Cozens – it’s all about platoon splits and hit tool. With Cozens, the power is entirely real and he’s not a bad outfielder and he draws his share of walks. But the questions with him are very serious. He gets abused by left-handed pitching and he’s had some bad home/road splits too. I think the odds are stacked against him a bit. If he could fight off lefties (.220 average, okay power) and hit about .250-.260 overall, I think he could be a very valuable major league player. If he’s hitting .220 or less, and there’s a good chance of that, then he’s going to be one of these guys who floats around for a while and maybe somebody will be smart enough to put him in a platoon because I could see him being a really nice platoon player, even if that role is dying in major league baseball (due, in part, to the use of situational relievers and the use of a 12-man pitching staff).

      1. Catch had his coffee this morning so eloquently stated…

        I have Cozens 5 Williams 6 for many of the reasons you stated. I see Cozens as a guy who can and will succeed at least in a platoon situation because the power is so real.

        When you look at the distance of his HR’s and flyballs to all fields you can reach that conclusion.

        With regard to Williams I still believe in the upside because I believe maturity combined with patience is his biggest obstacle not the ability. And most of us do tend to mature at some point.

      2. Really interesting analysis on Williams. After reading that, it made me think about what similar skill sets Francouer and Jayson Werth had as prospects. Both were first round picks (22nd and 23rd overall); both ended up as top 100 prospects; both had the raw tools but needed to adjust to become long-term, above-average major league hitters. Werth got hit by injuries, but ultimately had a much better career because he was able to make progress on ALL of a, b, c, and d in your list, even if he didn’t truly master any one or two. I think Werth is a good example of how Williams can improve with continued maturity and effort. Let’s hope he goes that way this year.

        1. Jayson Werth has one seriously distinguishing characteristic – he has very good plate discipline and always has, which plays to his other skills. I know we’d all like to think that a player can learn to be more selective, and I think sometimes it’s true (Herrera is a case in point), but usually a guy is either good at it or not good at it from the very beginning.

          1. Werth’s minor league OBP was exactly 100 points above his batting average. Williams’ differential is 45 points. Werth had a .372 OBP, Williams is at .331 – it’s a big difference.

            1. Sure, no comp is perfect. And as you said, Williams’s success will depend on his continued development in a number of areas, not just plate discipline.

              While selecting a stat that picks up Williams’s most glaring weakness shows a big difference in the two players’ games, I think Williams has been better than you’re giving him credit for. He probably will strike out a fair amount, but I think he can still hit for average. He has good power, and plenty more room for growth. He’s hit for extra bases at a much higher rate than Werth, for example, and as a result actually has a (slightly) higher OPS than Werth did in the minors.

              For the record, I went MM with this pick, but I like Williams as the No. 4 prospect, and I’m expecting him to have a bounce back year.

            2. gtrego – I hope you are right and I’m wrong. But this is not an arbitrary stat or a minute difference. It’s a REALLY important difference as guys with borderline plate discipline typically do not have successful big league careers and often flounder against advanced pitching. So, for him to be successful he is either going to have to improve the plate discipline or is going to have to hit at least .285 plus and have decent power. He’s still young, so we will see. Again, I hope I’m wrong.

  7. Good post Catch. I went MM as I had him at #2. With regard to Quinn, I see his value being in CF. He has to hit for average, steal a lot of bases and be an elite Defensive player. That all relies on his speed, and his injuries continue to scare me. I wish he could stay healthy, I root for him and love watching him play, but I can’t put him in the Top 5 unless I see him stay on the field.

    1. I think the FO pretty much agrees with the Doobie signing. Clearly they think he is their CF up until the point in time MM is ready.

      1. I’m not sure DMAR. Right now, I would say Herrera is less valuable in a trade than he was pre-extension. But if July comes around and he’s OPS’ing .800+ with solid CF defense, I think he would be more valuable in a trade than he is today.

        Whether he stays or goes, I think it was a great signing.

        1. Not sure about this, Steve- even if Odubel is what we see today (and at age 24, he should improve), he is a 4WAR a year player. I think a lot of teams would offer quite a bit for a 4WAR per year player, with that cost certainty- look at what the Gnats just gave up for Eaton. I think the extension increases his value.

        2. One WAR is worth $7 mil per year in FA. The Phillies signed Oduble to a contact that pays him over 5 years what he is worth in one year. That is extremely attractive if he maintains his production. Would be a far more valuable trade chip to be locked up under that deal.

          1. Can you tell me where you saw that one WAR is worth $7M/year in FA?
            It would seem that could vary between factors ranging from the age to the positional value of the player.
            For example, Cespedes a 2.6WAR player over the last two years, and entering his age 31 season was just signed for a 4yr/$110M contract…AAV $27.5, but first year @ $22.5M but jumps up considerably in 2 thru 4 year.
            At first glance it would appear the Mets did a big over pay.
            Is that $7M/OneWAR figure an average?

    1. Mitch does not make my Top 30 for me at most he is org filler. His MiLB career OPS of .675 does not project an MLB player.

      Nice kid I’m sure and he’ll always have the worlds greatest Walding Cheerleader in Sandusky.

      1. Walding still has a chance. He has a very good glove and his bat has slowly been improving. He has failed to move up a level per year, although the Phillies didn’t help him starting him at Williamsport. This year’s numbers at CLW were very good, although 23 was old for CLW. He held his own at Reading. He has to put up big numbers at Reading next summer. His career minor league OPS underrates him. He is at least the slightly above .700 OPS he put up at Reading.

    2. Last year he showed enough to stick around another year and move up to Reading. He has the best 3B glove in the system but he needs to hit at Reading to stick around another year.

  8. Would’t Tommy Joseph make a great DH, substitute 1st baseman. In about another half year and 25 HR’s, I’d expect they’d know what yhey can expect from haskins. If the haul for Joseph is good enough and the expectations for Hoskins high enough they might make a trade next july.

    I saw Hoskins at Williamsport and thought his swing was a little long. Supposedly, he changed his approach a little and is picking up his front foot and making a morr direct swing. In college he had a good k/bb ratioo but that has changed with the increase in power. It would be great if he could keep the power and rediscover the two strike contact.

  9. I love how Gamboa is such a crazy idea in the top 10 from people who have prob never even seen him play (not that I have). And I don’t disagree that he wouldn’t be in my top 10 but guess what? These things are opinions and rarely will there be a consensus. 10 years from now he may be the one who hit the nail on the head w his list, who knows?

      1. Currently Gamboa is close to following the Galvis trajectory model.
        He is a level behind right now.
        But bottom line….good field, no hit, under-age appropriate level.
        I guess they are hoping for the same success.

        1. That sounds like the profile that most people have on him . . . And again not in my top 10 or 20 however I’m not gonna rip someone for an opinion they have. And I would assume he was knowledge with someone the names he selected (def not all names that would be known by the common fan)

    1. Gamboa at 10 is crazy because of the current talent of him and the system. He is in my top 20 because people rave about him and you can see the raw ability. He has the tools to be better than a no hit shortstop, but he is just eons away from being that.

  10. It’s tough to disagree with the first 3 choices as voted. Both Crawford and Alfaro show plenty to anticipate MLB careers….but if I had to choose one player among all the Phils minor lg prospects who has all the tools to become a genuine star it is Moniac. He seems to have just about all the aspects covered that the best players have. He is said to have an advanced understanding of the game; has speed for CF and the bases along with taking good routes to the ball; has a high contact rate; at least an average arm for CF; and has added 20 lbs to his 170 lb playing weight since he started his pro career in June-July ’16. It seems to me that the appropriate start to his ’17 season should begin at Lakewood….and I would not be surprised if he moved up to Clrwtr before the season’s end.

    The only reason I could not vote him #1 is because he’s had such a limited number of pro games under his belt…but he, to me, has the best chance of all our prospects to be that special guy you could build a team around. See him 3 years ahead….hoping it all comes true.

  11. Forgive me if I missed it, but has Hoskins ever been given a shot in the OF? Seems like it would add some flexibility to his game and allow him some more time in the lineup. ‘Ol Joe in Chi Town seems to move his players around to get them in the lineup.

    1. Yes…Sac State….2012 freshman year made 37 of his 56 total starts in left field, the first time up until then, he played outfield in his career. Also played some in an off-season collegian league, someone posted last week….maybe the summer Cape Cod league.

  12. I have a tough time with this list. I Just haven’t seen these kids.. and don’t know how to rate a prospect based on some reports by scouts.

    1. It’s a fair concern/point. That’s why I rarely put a guy on the list until he has at least some stats and that’s why I also try to get scouting reports from as many sources possible to see if a consistent theme about the player emerges.

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