Open Discussion: Week of December 7th

Baseball’s Winter Meetings start Monday, December 7th.  The much awaited Rule 5 Draft will be held on Thursday, December 10th.  I have entered the 6 most recent transactions to the list below.  I have set the trigger on this article to post Sunday night just in case I can’t get back to it by then.  The data below is current as of Thursday night, December 3rd except for individual fall ball statistics.

During another slow week, I added links to BR for player stats and signing articles when available.  I included more information on the WBSC at the end of the article.  I will continue to add all the Phillies’ off season transactions and fall ball stats in future posts.

Off Season Transactions

The following is an update of the Phillies’ offseason roster status, which currently stands at 38 players –

Free Agents (5)

  • Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, Jerome Wiliams, Chad Billingsley, and Jeff Francoeur

Guaranteed Contracts (6) – contract information from COTS

  • Ryan Howard ($25M for 2016, $23M club option or $10M buyout for 2017)
  • Matt Harrison ($13M for 2016 and 2017, $13.5M club option or $2M buyout for 2018)
  • Carlos Ruiz ($8.5M for 2016, $4.5M club option or $0.5M buyout for 2017)
  • Miguel Gonzalez ($4M for 2016, and a vesting option for 2017).
  • Andres Blanco ($1.0M) – reached arbitration agreement for 2016 at $1.45M
  • Peter Bourjos (1.8M) – reached arbitration agreement for 2016 at $2M

Arbitration Eligible Players (3) – salary projections from Tim Dierkes of MLBTR

(29) Remaining roster players

Elvis AraujoAlec AsherJesse BiddleDavid BuchananJerad EickhoffLuis GarciaKen GilesSeverino GonzalezDalier HinojosaMario HollandsAdam MorganColton Murray, Hector NerisAaron NolaJoely RodriguezJorge AlfaroCameron Rupp, Maikel FrancoCesar HernandezDarin RufDarnell SweeneyAaron AltherrCody Asche, Odubel Herrera, A.J. Achter, Roman Quinn, Jimmy Cordero, Edubray Ramos, Michael Mariot

Fall Ball cumulative stats for Arizona Fall League, Australian League, and the winter leagues in the Dominican, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela

No change in the VWL by Miguel Gonzalez.  He stands at a 4.13 ERA in 7 starts – 12 BB, 19 K in 32.2 IP.

Rhys Hoskins has rebounded (.276/.340/.517, 3 HR) and Cord Sandberg has cratered (.230/.329/.311) in Australia.

The AFL has completed its season.  Drew Stankiewicz (.483/.531/.621) responded well after his call up following J.P. Crawford’s thumb injury.  Tom Windle (1.74 in 10 appearances) pitched well.  Yacksel Rios (2-2, 5.14) got lit up in his final start and saw his ERA jump by about 3.00, however he pitched well in his other starts.

Maikel Franco made his DWL debut.  He homered in his first game and has 2 in 5 games.  His slash is .263/.391/.579.  he has only struck out once in 19 AB and has walked 3 times.  Roman Quinn is struggling he is hitting .212 and has struck out 27 times in 99 AB.  Newly signed Angelys Nina has a .270/.323/.357 in 115 AB.  Joely Rodriguez has a 2.95 ERA in 6 appearance/4 starts and 20 K in 18.1 IP.  Ranfi Casimiro has posted a 1.89 ERA in 4 starts.  Relievers Ulises Joaquin (2.70, 9K in 10 IP)and Jimmy Cordero (2.16 ERA in 9 appearances, 9 K in 8.1 IP) are throwing well.  As is Nefi Ogando (2.70 in 8 appearance).

Victor Arano is killing it in Mexico with a 3-0 record and 0.86 ERA in 20 appearance, 18 K in 21 IP.  Dylan Cozens made his debut and is hitting .318/.348/.500 with 1 HR in his first 7 games.  He has 5 K and 1 BB in 22 AB.

In Puerto Rico, Jesmuel Valentin continues to put up a respectable .27362/.326/.341 in 88 AB.  Hoby Milner has posted an ERA of 0.00 in 9 appearances (5.0 IP).  Reinier Roibal has a 1.69 ERA in 4 starts – 16 IP, 12 K, 6 BB.

There is winter baseball in Nicauragua.  Austin Davis, Harold Guerrero, Jairo Munoz, and Will Morris are all on the same team.  Davis has a 0.99 ERA, 36 K in 27.1 IP.  The rest of their stats are here.

The US entry in the WBSC (World Baseball Softball Confederation) Premier 12 took silver in Japan when they lost to South Korea in the final game.  The manager of the GCL Phillies, Roly de Armas, was one of the coaches.  Cody Forsythe, Joey Denato, and Kyle Martin were on the USA team.  So were FA pitcher Anthony Vasquez and FA 2B Tyler Pastornicky.  Their combined stats are here. They do NOT include the final game which the USA lost 8-0.  Joey DeNato entered in the ninth with 2 out and the bases loaded.  He threw 5 pitches and recorded a swinging strike out to end the threat.  Kyle Martin entered as a PH in the ninth and struck out looking.  (Pastornicky started at third and went 0-4 with 2 K.  Vasquez pitched 1.2 innings and faced 8 batters recording a hit, walk, HBP and K.  He entered with 2 out in the fourth and stranded a runner, pitched a clean fifth, and left with one out and the bases loaded in the sixth after striking out the first batter then going single-HBP-BB.)

For those not aware (like me), the WBSC is the result of the 2013 merger of the International Baseball Federation (IBAF) and the International Softball Federation.  From 1938 to 2011, the International Baseball Federation (IBAF), then the governing body of baseball, considered the Baseball World Cup to be the sport’s major world championship.[1] Following the 2011 version of the event, the IBAF chose to discontinue the tournament in favor of the World Baseball Classic.

In 2005, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced that baseball and softball would be removed from the Summer Olympics beginning in 2012. Thereafter, the IOC also officially reclassified baseball and softball as two different disciplines of the same sport.  After the 2013 merger, the WBSC.

On 27 November 2014, the WBSC announced the creation of the Premier12 tournament as a “spiritual successor to the Baseball World Cup” in an attempt to boost baseball’s bid for inclusion in the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.  The WBSC proposed that, if baseball does return to the Olympics for 2020, that the 2019 WBSC Premier12 be used as a qualifying tournament.

173 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of December 7th

  1. Curious about your thoughts on the Rule 5? I’m expecting the club to pick Tyler Goeddel or Jabari Blash to compete with Bourjos for starts in left field.

    1. I’m expecting a pitcher to be selected but Goedel is also a possibility if they think he’s good enough to stick. A pitcher (Perdomo?) would seem to be the higher priority but I guess it’s about projected ceiling.

      1. @Murray – I agree with you. Perdomo is a good choice. He can play in the pen or be a long man. Given the lack of depth in SP, Perdomo can also do spot SP job. I like the Phils to pick CHC LHP Heesch although Heesch is probably suited more as the 2nd Rule V pick not the 1st.

        I think the Phils will try to get an OF as well if they will not decide to sign Frenchy (or trade for a corner OF). Goeddel is also a good choice, although personally I like them to pick Becerra.

    2. I think they take “best available” in Rule 5. Signing of bourjos perhaps tipped their hand that they are eyeing a pitcher

    3. My (somewhat fluid) order of preference for the 1st overall rule 5 pick:

      1. Luis Perdermo
      2. Tyler Goeddel
      3. Jabari Blash

      Take a LH reliever with the 2nd pick or maybe Teoscar Hernandez, if they don’t select Goeddel or Blash with the 1st pick.

  2. The numbers for late inning, non-closer, relievers is through the roof. What does this do for a cost controlled Closer like Giles? I think the Astros, if they don’t make the Andrew Miller trade, the Cubs and the DBacks should be in need of him.

    1. The counter argument with regard to Giles would be experience. I think most clubs that really expect to be there in the end again would have pause trusting that role to guy that hasn’t been there done that…so to speak.

      That’s not to say his stuff isn’t amazing and that he shouldn’t be mentioned with those guys just that track record in high pressure situations hasn’t been demonstrated yet.

      1. If the Dodgers do actually give up RHP Holmes and Inf Peraza..their 4 and 5 number prospects, for basically one year of Chapman until he becomes the highest closer in history after next year…..a return on Giles’ could also be a handsome duo of prospects, at least two out of a team’s top ten, I would think.

          1. The top three of Urias, Seager and DeLeon are off the table however from what is reported by sources..

        1. @romus – i have the same prospectsin mind too – Holmes and Peraza. I’m close to 100% certain with Holmes but somehow 50-50 with Peraza since LAD is dangling Peraza to ATL for Shelby Miller or can might keep him to be their future 2B. It’s either Peraza or Verdugo (or maybe one of the new Cubans they signed) + Holmes I think will go to CIN.

          1. I would think the Reds would want one pitcher in the mix for Chapman….and Holmes fits the bill with both Urias and Deleon off the table.
            LAD signed the Mariners’ Japanese pitcher, Hisashi Iwakuma, so perhaps Miller is not in play right now.

      2. I agree with your point here, and I actually think that it suggests that Giles’s value may be highest around the time of the 2016 trade deadline or next offseason. Giles has been great, but his quick rise and the fact that he’s only handled the closer role for half a season on a team playing meaningless games may make some teams hesitate to give up a top prospect (or two). At the deadline or next offseason, he’ll still have another year of his rookie scale contract and 3 years of arbitration control with, hopefully, a more proven track record.

        Obviously Klentak will be listening on offers, but I hope Giles stays for the time being unless he’s truly blown away, both because I don’t want to have already seen Giles’s last game with the Phils and because I think his value is still increasing.

  3. My guess is Pedroma for the first pick. With this order for the second, only I don’t expect the the first 2 to still be around by the second.

    1 Jabbari Bash OF, 32 homers AA and AAA, 26, Big whiff rate
    1 Luis Pedroma SP potential, 21, will do relief with Phils
    2 Tyler Goedell OF, 12 homers AA, 23
    3 Wilmer Buccera OF lots going good plus power, #10 prospect Mets, never above low A
    3 Teoscar Hernandez OF 17 homers in A ball, but struggled in AA
    3 Balbino Furenmeyer 1b, recent power, 26, Big + or porential minus
    4 Jacob Wilson 2B, 18 homers 427 AB’s
    4 Jake Borenstein OF/1b, power in 2013, 24, but not so much since
    5 Jake Cave 4th outfileder

    1. I actually like STL Wilson – decent power and hit tool and can play 2B/3B. Good option for the 2nd Rule V pick.

      1. I think a team is better off taking any Cardinal exposed.
        Both Perdom and Wilson would be safe and perhaps fruitful picks.
        Then again, an OFer like Goedell is also someone who can be a contributing asset, But with Boujous in the mix now, they may look to pitching first and then infield like a Wilson.

  4. Read were Cody Asche is on the Angel’s radar.
    Could the second sequel of Bedrock be coming to Philly soon?

    1. this is like a poor man’s version of a “perfect trade” with Asche commands minimal to no value and LAA has minimal to no value prospects to offer.

      Hunter Green is my prospect of choice for Asche but Robichaux will do.

      1. Other two names rumored in the mix, if not Cam Bedrosian, are Angel prospects Gott and Morin Gott was a guy Ruben wanted at one time, but that fell thru.

    2. that’s funny- when the Angels traded 18 year old lefty ricardo sanchez to the Braves last year for Kyle Kubitza, i wonder if we could have done the trade instead of Atlanta by giving up Asche.

      1. I don’t think he gets claimed though because he would be taking up a 40-man spot all winter and not sure you can even put him on the 60-day DL in spring training. At this point his chances of major league success are unfortunately small enough that I do not think he gets claimed. Of course he could become a minor league free agent at the end of 2015 so a decision would need to be made on him next year without him playing potentially this year.

    1. Phils have influx of “fungible” RHP – so my bet with be a RHP with Neris on top of the list.

    1. agreed. Bryant could at least make something of a case based on his amazing spring training numbers.but Franco didnt hit during his September call up and hit .200 in spring training, so there wouldnt seem to be any basis for it. Guess he’s listening to his agent and the union in pursuing this?

      1. Same thought Raff. My initial reaction is a sour one. 60 PAs in 2014 with a .400 OPS starts you at AAA the next season. Bryant is the result of a blatant maneuver by a team who was willful in playing within the rules. He has a gripe. Franco’s situation is not even in the same ballpark. I suspect the front office may have knew this was coming, but whenever they first learned, I’m sure their reaction was WTF

      2. This is a play by the agents/union to bring attention to this issue for future negotiations. Teams are using the rules in the current CBA to gain an extra year of control which the union but especially the agents, don’t like.

        I agree with the comment above that Bryant can make the argument much better than can Franco but the more voices complaining, the more attention the issue gets.

        1. Can you make an argument against something that is collectively bargained? With a straight face?

          I guess you can but Bryant cashed a $6.7 million dollar check just to sign. Franco got no where near that amount. So in a way it’s an indignity done by Bryant to a whole group of players in the minors making barely and possibly less than minimum wage.

          You want to do something noble Kris start championing a cause for the vast majority of kids in the minors who for the most part are being exploited for the small percentage that will eventually go on to play in the majors.

          1. DMAR……the agents know they have no case, even the MLBPA will give it a perfunctory look over…..but it will be addressed on the next CBA….but will the players want to concede something else, since it is all about ‘give and take’.
            And I think you have a good point about players compensations I the minors. I would like the ones in A level and below to get more…the players at AA level have a shot at .least at a cup of coffee in the MLB

            1. You’re probably right Romus it just irritates me but then so do owners that want to pay out these ridiculous pitchers contracts.

              they all make their own beds so I don’t feel bad for owners or MLB players.

              I do feel bad for MiLB players to some extent and the US amateur player to a lesser extent.

              If I were commish all foreign players would be subject to an International draft and be slotted values just as our US players are.

          2. The MLBPA should never have been allowed to negotiate away the rights of minor league players. Minor league players had/have neither say nor representation when the CBA was/is negotiated. Wealthy landowners engineered a revolution over taxation without representation. Sorry for the soapbox speech, I just read BA’s article that Baseball is worried that minor league players might win their class action law suit to receive minimum wage and overtime. And their reaction is to avoid due process by getting the law changed. So interesting that Baseball would rather do away with the low minors rather than pay a living wage. Time to remove baseball’s antitrust exemption, IMO. Here’s the article –

            1. I’ll take baseball’s system over the other major sports where they use the colleges to be their minor league systems. At least minor league players have the choice to turn pro or go to school.

              I do agree that the minimum salaries for minor leaguers need to be more in-line with reality but at least the players have a choice.

            2. Choice? Any HS or college graduate is permitted to seek employment with whatever employer he wants provided he is qualified and passes the interview process. All team sports seek to limit a players choices by subjecting them to an “illegal” draft. Baseball on the other hand, does it twice, after HS and again later during/after college.

            3. Yes, baseball is not deserving of its anti-trust exemption. Cheating minor leaguers isn’t good. Neither is blackmailing cities to build new stadiums.

            4. Sorry Jim but drafts are not “illegal”. The previous option was to have a true free-for-all where teams can sign as many players as they want. This will certainly return baseball and all other sports to the days were a hand-ful of big market teams dominate and everyone else is SOL. There’s a reason that the NY Yankees played the NY Giants or Brooklyn Dodgers in the WS so often from the 20s through the 50s..

              As for baseball doing it twice, it is the player that gets to decide out of HS if he wants to sign for what the team is offering or decline and go to college instead.

              Or, as you point out, if the player thinks they are getting screwed by professional sports, McDonalds is always hiring. Afterall, being payed to play professional sports is not a right, it’s a job offer that they can either accept of decline.

            5. Thought you were smarter than that, 3up. This is not an either/or proposition. “This will certainly return baseball and all other sports to the days …” is a very poor comparison. The declaration of the illegality of the reserve clause, free agency, and sports agents are three of many reasons why baseball can’t return to the old days.

              Obviously, I know that the draft isn’t illegal, that’s why I put it in quotes. But it’s wrong to set up a system that requires employees to sign away all their rights when they enter the workplace. Minor league players are not represented from the time they sign their first contract until they are on a major league roster and covered by the MLBPA (which has never shown any qualms about negotiating away the rights of this large group of players who they do not represent).

              The current system allows a high school player the option of signing with the one and only offer he gets after being drafted or he can forfeit his chance at playing baseball. Does that really sound fair to you? If he opts to go to college, why should he have to subject himself to the draft again? I can’t believe that in this day and age you can’t see the injustice at the lowest levels, the entry levels of baseball.

            6. I think you’re being a bit naive if you think that the end of the reserve clause and addition of agents would prevent the system from returning to what it was prior to the draft.

              Agents will always push the players the represent to the highest $$$ and free agency only helps once a player has already been in the system for many years.

              Just need to look at the international market if you want to see how an unfettered system would work.

        2. That’s an interesting thought 3up, but that he went about it by calling out the Phillies FO still leaves a sour taste in my mouth. It’s difficult for me to justify kicking party #2 in the groin because party #1 isn’t paying attention

  5. With the Chapman deal running into problems due to allegations of Chapman being involved in a domestic violence case, now would be a good time for the Dodgers to go after Giles. The Chapman rumors were already starting problems for LA because apparently Jensen only wants to close. They could bring in Giles and have him be the 8th inning guy until Jensen becomes a free agent in 2017.

      1. Maybe not but I would imagine it would be easier to convince Giles to accept an 8th inning role opposed to Chapman or Jensen. Giles may also be interested in pitching for a contender instead of settling for a limited amount of saves on a bad team. It is not the ideal fit for Giles, but I think it is a better fit for the Dodgers than Chapman is.

        1. The Phils should put in a bid on 28 yo starter Kenta Maeda who has just been posted by his Japanese team. He projects as a MLB #3 starter. I don’t see a better, realistic option for improving the Phils’ rotation this off-season. It would probably qualify as the Phils’ one big off-season move. Maeda had been linked to the Diamondbacks before they signed Greinke and there will be plenty of tire kickers but a lot of big money outfits (Dodgers, Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Cubs) have addresses their starting pitching needs through free agency already..

          1. I don’t see them going after an expensive 28 yr old at this point in time. They’re 2 years away from being a major free agent player again. I know no one wants to hear this but another long season awaits us with 90 plus losses again. The only difference is that there is a good chance that by next September, a handful of young guys will be up and auditioning to be part of our future core. Next September could see some combination of Knapp and/or Alfaro, JP, Quinn, Williams, Hoskins, Cozens, Thompson, Eflin, Windle. Cordero, Ramos, Roibal…. Its a long list potentially but each guy will have to put up a strong first half to their minor league season to earn the right to be considered for a call up. The opportunity will be there for them. Next off season, the search for free agents will begin as we look to fill in the holes but it will probably be one more year after that to where it will begin in earnest. Next year will actually be the most exciting minor league season in memory for the Phillies minor leaguers.

          2. The rebuild is just starting, cant see spending a lot on one player, who is a projected 4th starter. rather use that money on draft and latin market.

          3. Kenta Maeda is rather smallish at 6′ and 160 lbs.
            And has already pitched 1500 innings.
            Could be a gamble of sorts.
            They could put in a low bid, after the posting fee, and see if he signs.

            1. Unless he throws like Pedro Martinez (power) or Greg Maddux (extraordinary command and movement), probably the last thing I want is a 28 year old short, slight starter from a Japanese league where pitchers often throw 130 pitches or more per start. Now, maybe he’s the exception, not the rule, but I would approach that signing with the greatest of care.

            2. Post the $20M…and yes, make a low, but reasonable offer for a team in the Pillies stage of rebuild..
              He has 30 days, if he declines, the team gets their posting fee back and it opens to the other 29 teams. If no MLB team comes to a contract agreement with the posted player, then no fee is paid, and the player’s rights revert to his NPB team.

            3. On Japanese players…..the ‘posting’ fee technically changes to a ‘transfer’ fee to the NPB team, if a player signs with the MLB team.

            4. J64…..he could be a very decent 3 or 4 in a rotation, why not offer a 4 yr/$40M. That seems reasonable, and if he really is better then advertised, you can move him in a couple years for a good return when he just turns 30. By then you would think the Phillies rotation with Nola, Thompson Eflin et al and the 2016 1.1 have established themselves enough to go forward.

  6. Romus. first that is 60 million investment on a 4th starter, second with these nutty contracts he might get more than 40 million. I at this stage I would pass. I just rather use that money on younger kids. who I can control

    1. rocco….yes that’s a lot of trump if he truly becomes a 4th…..but John Middleton and Brian Roberts have got you covered.

      1. People can debate back and forth whether he is a 3 or a 4 starter but at the point where the Phils have put up $ for guys like Hellickson, who is older and has less tread, it’s hard to argue there is a better option for a team in search of some veteran help to its rotation. A 28 year old can definitely be a part of the team going into and coming out of a rebuild. Who wants another season of Billingsleys and Jeremy Williams?

        1. I just think its a lot of money for a unproven starter and 4 years of commitment. sorry not the way this team should go now. Moving forward you can find starter like him who are proven in mlb for this kind of money. If he was top of rotation yes do it. but from what I have read he isn’t. and has a ton of innings pitched.

        2. one year of Hellickson isn’t even in the same ballpark as what they would pay for Maeda…

  7. This has been a pretty underwhelming Winter Meetings so far. Guys like Kennedy and Vogelsong and Fister have not even been mentioned, which leads me to hope one of them lands in Philly. Fister being my choice all along.

    1. matt13…Fister going to be a Phillie appears. I like him as a trade chip in July..more so then Araron Harang or Chad B. from last season.
      Hoping it is a two year deal vs one year……doubt if he will take a 3-yr deal.

    2. I’m a big fan of a Fister deal, especially if it’s a one or two year contract with reasonable dollars ($16-22 million for two years). What I like best is that Fister really knows how to pitch – I think he’s valuable, could bounce back and more, and the other pitchers could learn a lot just by watching him pitch every fifth day. I think he could have serious trade value as well – so like the idea of having him around.

  8. It has sure picked up with the Dbacks making another splash. Are they a prime candidate for a closer? Maybe one named Ken Giles. They have surplus young pitching.

    1. Dave Stewart didn’t want to give up 3-4 guys for a closer, but just traded 3 very good prospects, including the #1 pick, and didn’t even get a true ace in return. They are also rumors they are close to signing Mike Leake. It is very clear that they are all in and Giles would be a nice cherry on top.

      1. not sure why they would bother with leake but if you add him with Grienke, Miller, Corbin, you have Delarosa, Bradley and Ray for the 5th spot, so they could make something work for Giles definitely

  9. The Braves just pants’d the D’Backs. If they were going give away all of that for Shelby Miller, I would have driven Nola to AZ for half that package…

    1. I think Ruben Amaro took that coaching job in Boston in haste. Ruben could have made that trade for Shelby Miller as well as D’backs’ GM Dave Stewart did. I think Arizona could be the 2016 version of the 2015 Padres.

    2. Agree. Going all in is one thing, but the excess value Arizona gave up was retarded. Long term value is heavily in favor of the Braves, and it’s not close.

      The Marlins won’t be able to get an equivalent package for Jose Hernandez, yet the Brave get it for Shelby Miller. It’s nuts.

  10. So far, so good for the Cubs. A club with versatility adds the most versatile player in the game.

    Now, if they can sign Heyward, the 2016 Cubs should be significantly better than the 2015 version.

    Remaining questions would be: Who plays center? And what do they do with Soler and Baez?

    1. If they sign Heyward, he might play center until Almora is ready in 2017. In this case, Soler and Baez can both remain with the team for at least another year.

      I’d like to see Baez get 400 PAs with the Cubs in ’16 to see if he can overcome his deficiencies and become a star. By 2018, Torres should be ready, and one of them becomes a valuable trade piece.

      Another possibility is that the Cubs move one or more of their young position players for a young, cost-controlled SP.

      If they are not there already, the Cubs’ signing of Heyward, together with a move to strengthen the rotation, could make them the team to beat for several years.

    1. Tack on another ‘fungible’ but a bigger version in David Hernandez.
      Philles bullpen will have different faces for sure it appears.

  11. I am amaze at the package the braves got. I said it before some teams gm , know how to get more for a player than others. The braves have reloaded there system.

    1. rocco…..everyone is saying how lopsided the trade is……it boils down to Swanson for Miller. Blair is an Alec Asher/Jerrad Eickhoff …mid-to-end rotation guy and Speier has a chance to be a pretty decent lefty and is 2/3 years younger then Blair.
      Inciarte type players are not that difficult to obtain, his defense is definitely plus but will his bat play better in Atlanta vs Phoenix’s Chase Field?
      Plus D-Backs need to find a corner OF positon for Tomas’ bat.

      BTW… wanted Kyle Tucker at the draft…he still may be coming to Philly. He could be one name in the Giles to Houston talks this morning. But think one or two of Appel, Martes or Musgrove pitchers will be in play.

  12. I still don think the Phillies move giles now. I Think the best time would be july. Cause you wouldn’t have all the teams who need a closer in on him. Even the teams with limited money.

    1. rocco…huh?
      … you have more teams in on him…in July you may have fewer. Storen, once signed, will mean one less team, then there is always our buddy Paps hanging around and he could end up with a team before the season starts.

      1. My point was he is cheap and controllable. So imo you would have not only the large market teams but the pittsburgs and other with limited resources.

      2. Grant Holmes and Alex Verdugo for Giles do it for you Romus? Maybe get them to throw in Rhame as well….

  13. I know there is a long way to go, but Klentak seems to be, at least, raising the floor on Pitching and Defense. I like what he has done so far, and agree Romus, I think Fister is an excellent “bounce back” candidate and a nice trade piece for July. It benefits him, also, to be out there every 5th day to show that he is back.

    1. By the end of the day we will know.
      Plus they have their Rule 5 gut identified he says, but also depends on their FA signings today

    1. Hernandez . if he regains his ’13 form, will be an asset. Lots of TJ guys do well after a year out or so after surgery.
      As for the others..Otero, Ashter (sp) et al….just not sure

      1. There’s a deal crying to be made with the Angels who are up against the luxury tax, have needs to fill at 2B, 3B and OF, and have little to offer from their farm system. They need to dump salary to sign a top OFer in free agency.

        To the Phils: starters C.J. Wilson (LHP) and Matt Shoemaker (RHP), set-up man Trevor Gott and 2B-SS prospect Roberto Baldoquin

        to the Halos: Code Asche, Cesar Hernandez and a P off the 40 man (Cordero ?)

        I prefer Shoemaker to Fister. He is younger, cheaper,team-controlled and more likely to enjoy a bounce back season., Eating the Wilson contract makes it go and adding Gott to the pen makes a possible Giles trade more palatable.

        Dumping the Wilson contract puts the Angels in a position to go after a Justin Upton. The ability to take back a bad contract is an asset the Phils should exp-lore this off-season.

        Oh, and consider moving Herrera to 2B with Bourjos moving into CF.

          1. Not a deal breaker for a team in transition, especially if you consider that Hernandez has been nothing special at 2B. Maybe in late innings with the team ahead, you shift Herrera to the OF alongside Bourjos and Altherr, for defense. As a full time OF, that trio doesn’t do it for me — not even till someone like Nick Williams arrives..

        1. The team the Phillies should be targeting to maximize their return on Ken Giles is the Astros. Besides targeting one of Houston’s top 5 prospects as the Centerpiece of a deal, they could easily get all of the guys that the Astros figure to lose in the Rule 5 draft. If I’m the Phillies I ask for Reymin Guduan and Teoscar Hernandez as extras, just because the Astros already know they should lose them for nothing.

            1. He’s still the Astros property. He’s like any other minor leaguer in their system not yet on the 40 man. He can be traded, up until someone selects him in the Rule 5.

            2. Got it I do hope they end up with him not sure he warrants their 1st selection but if he should be there at 2 I would take him.

              From Houston I would like to see them get Feliz Davis and Ferrell

        2. Wilson is owed $38 Mil this season and next. I like the line of thinking but I’m not seeing that kind of value in any of the players you are returning to us?

          1. Go to Cots and see that he is only signed for 2016 for $20.5 M and is a free agent in 2017. So it’s not as bad as you’re making it out to be. To me he is slightly more valuable than Fister. In the current market, Wilson probably prices in the $12-14 M range so he’ll be overpaid by somebody this year but it’s not outrageous and just one year.Matt Klentak is talking about adding pitching depth and this move definitely accomplishes that. Per CSN,the Phils are talking about giving Herrera reps at 2B in spring training so they clearly don’t see Hernandez as unmovable.

  14. Next 24 hours should be interesting. So if we sign a SP FA it will be interesting to see who they try to assign…assuming they have plans to pick 2 in rule 5.

    1. What’s the rules on trying to assign a player you just plucked off the waiver wire? Do they have to be on your roster for any period of time before you assign them?

  15. I see some Astro tweets that the Phillies have moved back their media meeting one hour to 530pm ET. Astros doing same. Looks like something will happen involving Giles. Names bantered back to PHL are none of the top 5 but #6 Feliz, #9 Musgrove, #10 Moran and PTBNL. The first two are RP both starters. Moran is their top 3B prospect. Could this mean that in 2017 Franco goes to 1B?

    Also see Davis #13 another 3b prospect and Velasquez (don’t have any info) on tweets.

    1. I like Feliz, but the rest of that package is… Eh. Colin Moran has a big name, but is really not anything better than Cody Asche.

  16. Jayson Stark just tweeted that he is hearing Vincent Velasquez (23yo RHP starter with Astros) and two prospects.

    1. Velazquez, Olberhouser, and a third prospect. That third prospect better be one of their first round picks from this past draft (Bregman, Tucker, or Cameron). Otherwise, that package doesn’t come close to the Kimbrel haul.

  17. The Kimbrel deal and the Miller deal. That’s two “once-in-a-lifetime” deals in one week.

    Let’s face reality. We can’t predict the trade market.

  18. Klentak has really shored up and stocked up on relievers….. signing David Hernandez and claiming Dan Otero, A.J. Achter and Michael Mariot on waivers. High velo guys Jimmy Cordero and Edubray Ramos added to the 40 for spring camp and then there was veteran James Russell….. all to be added to the present corps of Luis Garcia, Jeanmar Gomez, Elvis Araujo, Dalier Hinojosa, and Hector Neris

  19. Derek Fisher is for real. He is a LH power bat that can run and has a hitter’s eye. He hit 22HR’s in his first full season of professional ball. He has a good chance to start in AA next season. Folks should be excited.

    1. I like that he has some power, but I’m disappointed because he’ll be limited to LF because he can’t throw.

    2. Greg I hope your right. I saw a lot of him at Virginia, and never thought he would be a high choice. He just never looked that good to me. but I could be wrong

    1. told the 4th player won’t be announced until deal is finalized. Meaning players will have to pass their physicals before the Phillies select 4th player.

  20. According to SI, the 4th player is SP Thomas Eshelman. 2015 draftee who had freakish control in college.

    1. Eshelman at 13 and Goeddel at 20. It’s amazing – the transformation. And it’s not done yet. The Top 3 guys stand to graduate from prospect status at some point in 2016, and I suspect our 1-1 selection in the Rule IV will compete for #1 overall in our system. I also expect by the time our 1-1 pick is signed that Cornelius Randolph will be shooting up the national rankings. Beyond his years as a hitter

  21. I cant believe the nats are going 200 million for heyward. I know that they will lose werths in two years. but how many 200 million contracts can they give out to players.

    1. rocco…lest you forget, the ‘Bryce-man’, comes up eligible for arbitration after next season,in 2017, then free agent a few years later in ’19 and Scott Boras is his agent. The Nats will not let him get to his last year without first locking him up for 7/9 years…….can you imagine the $$$$$$.
      That’s the Donald territory.

  22. I Had to drive my wife and that was what I was going to ask. Harper has to get 10 yrs 300 million easy. if you give Hayward this type of money. I Didn’t know that war includes defense, that being said how in gods name, can you judge a outfield on ball he should catch?? Baseball I really believe is going into the wrong direction imo. these 10 yr deals stink. I really love to see them go to a system that only give them a partial guaranteed. The club would have a option each year after say three to renew,

    1. Harper will end up getting something like 10 years, $38 million a year with an opt-out right after year 6 or 7. Seriously, it’s going to be that crazy, he won’t leave a cent on the table and the Yankees or Dodgers will gladly pay every penny.

      1. I think Harper may top at $350M over 10, only because it will happen in two years from now.. His 23 age season is next year, arbitrary in 2017, so the Nats could start him early, and after 5 years, opt out at his 29age season.
        But you are correct, the Yankees, Dodgers, even Cubs Rangers, Angels or Red Sox will be right there to pay him .

        1. I guarantee that if he continues to put up numbers like he did last year, Harper will get the largest contract in major league history in terms of AAV – I said $38 million per year because he will get more per year than Greinke and the teams bidding for his services will determine how much above that ‘floor’ it will go. I foresee a long contract with an opt out. He will get that because I suspect he and his agent will demand it and a team (actually, I assume multiple teams) will concede to those demands.

          I see a lot of talk on the board about how horrible these contracts are and how unfair they are for the team and bad for baseball. The union and the players, of course, love these contracts and would probably never agree to changes in the collective bargaining agreement preventing these deals or even discouraging them. The owners, on the other hand, really can’t help themselves and, because baseball has a very high salary tax threshold, no true salary cap, and a select few teams with superior financial resources (giving them a true strategic advantage), it just takes one or two teams who compete for these players to make contracts like that happen. Ultimately, however, what you are seeing is teams who have tremendous financial resources paying extraordinary players extraordinary salaries that they will likely be worth. If you believe that a WAR is worth $5-6 million, a 10 WAR player has extremely high value that will likely exceed even a $38 million per year salary. If you had a fixed salary cap, because you need so many good players on a baseball team to succeed (there are no Lebron James type fixes in baseball), those salaries would certainly be kept in check. But I don’t see that happening anytime soon – rather, at best, the salary tax would have to increase and become more punitive but, again, the players would fight that like crazy.

  23. I wonder what a team with Paps and Puig on it would be like!
    A Bronx Zoo?

    “He is the worst person I’ve ever seen in this game,” the player, who was not identified, told Scott Miller of Bleacher Report. “Ever.”…..The unnamed former Dodgers player was talking about Puig’s personality, which has come under fire in recent seasons as the Cuban sensation has struggled to adapt to an L.A. lifestyle. It wasn’t specified whether the player was once a teammate of Puig’s……“That’s a lot of money for a huge risk,” a former general manager said of Puig, who’s expected to earn just under $20 million over the next three seasons. “There’s such a huge downside. He’s a problem. He’s a distraction. He’s selfish. He’s not going to play if he doesn’t feel like it. He’s got his money.“You’re taking on a whole series of problems.” –

    1. If you look at the Heyward’s age, typical WAR production and the annual salary ($23 million per year), whether you like it or not, he’s probably worth that salary or more, assuming he produces around 5 WAR annually (a pretty good bet) and a WAR is worth $6 million (which will only escalate over time). Of course, if he gets hurt or just regresses it will be a big screw up.

      1. One aspect of Heyward’s career WAR, is that over 50% has been defensive related.
        Now as a CFer that can be of more importance due to the positional value, but as RFer not quite as sure.
        But then again I look what Ruben gave Ryan Howard 5 years ago, then realize Heyward’s contract is very user friendly for the Cubs,

  24. He isn’t worth 23 million dollars. Did you read the scouting report on him. He is not getting around on fastballs like he used to. War counts defense which I never knew. If a 13 homerun 60 rbi is worth 23 million harper should get 40 or more. omg to pay this guy that kind of money for no power and no rbi production is a joke.

    1. As usual, You are exactly right. A player with low power numbers as he has had will not make the Cubs the next WS champs (they’re pretty good though).

      1. The Cubs don’t need another power guy. They’ve got plenty of those. They need a high obp guy at the top of their lineup and someone to cover for the other poor fielders in their outfield. Heyward gives them those things. Although I’m not convinced he is a centerfielder.

    2. I agree Roccum. Cubs should pray he performs well the first three seasons and chooses to opt out. These opt out clauses are another thing. The player gets to choose to revoke a contract if they perceive their value to have risen since they signed the contract. Yet if the player fails to peform under that contract the team does not recover anything. Seems awfully one-sided. These opt outs have started a trend similar to no trade clauses. Neither are good for owners

      1. As for Heyward, you are entitled to your opinion that he is not worth the contract, but if you put any faith in WAR, chances are pretty good that he will be worth that contract and more. He was a 6.2 and a 6.5 WAR the last two years without a true offensive breakout. He is an extraordinarily young free and is likely to be going into his best offensive years. If plays under this contract to, say, an average of 6 WAR per year, he will be a bargain. He has good offensive skills and outstanding defensive skills. The value of a player like Heyward or Gordon is why I have a lot of hope for Altherr – a player with a very similar skill set to these other players and who could end up being a real gem for the Phillies going forward.

  25. Annual MLB revenue is approaching $10 billion and growing.

    The owners make b-b-b-billions.

    Without the talent, there is no baseball.

    The players deserve a big piece of the action.

    In negotiating the next CBA, the players’ union should demand that a higher percentage of revenue be allocated to player salaries.

    Raising minimum salaries dramatically and either the elimination of the luxury tax or lifting the threshold up to the penthouse re reasonable union demands.

    If you think player salaries have become ridiculous, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    1. The major leaguers do just fine. If they want to redistribute revenues they should allocate more to the minor leaguers. These kids should at least make enough to live without boarding with a strange family and working 2nd and 3rd jobs

      1. Although I generally agree with you, major leaguers don’t care a lick about minor leaguers and the union is just there for the major leaguers and owes no legal duty to minor leaguers. I don’t see that changing, but I hope I’m wrong, at least to a certain extent.

  26. Mets signed SS, Asdrubal Cabrera and traded for 2B, Neil Walker:
    They seem to value offense from those two valued positions more then defense.
    Asdrubal Cabrera….SDI of -8.8…last in the AL for shortstops, and only better then MLB worst of Met Ruben Tejada
    Neil Walker…SDI –0.5…ninth in the NL for 2nd basemen, and 18th in the MLB.
    I guess with a pitching staff like they have that throws high heat with plenty of whiffs, the middle infield defense is not a big concern.

    1. I don’t know. I always felt you should highlight your strengths. And purposefully building a mediocre defense behind a superb pitching staff is a contrarian approach from my perspective.

      1. Agree.
        Maybe they want more offense. Since they are both noted for their bats then their gloves. And they lost both Cuddyer and Cespedes from their lineup. Though Conforto should be a plus for them from the start of the year.

  27. I’m starting to become more impressed the more I read about Derek Fisher. Below is a good MiLB article which focuses on the Phillies acquisition of Fisher. If anyone subscribes to Rotowire, it was interesting to see the Roto news items on Fisher’s player page. This guy might be a monster in Reading next year. In fact, that Reading team might be better in 2016 than 2015

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