Open Discussion–Week of November 3rd

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We hit the back end of the Arizona Fall League schedule with Roman Quinn continuing to excite almost anyone who has watched him in Arizona.  In 66 AB’s, Quinn is hitting .258/.372/.364 with 1HR 7RBI and a very impressive 13 SB’s in 15 attempts, along with playing a very solid CF.   C Logan Moore is hitting .154, playing every third day or so.

On the mound, P Nefi Ogando remains the most impressive and has likely solidified a spot on the Phils 40 man roster coming into next season.  In 9 appearances, Ogando is 1-0 with a 2.53ERA and 3 saves.  Opponents are hitting just .205 against him and his WHIP sits at 1.13.  P Ryan O’Sullivan continues getting hit around with an ERA of 11.57 in 7 appearances including his last appearance during which he allowed two earned runs.The opposition is hitting at an astronomical .385 rate against him. RP Colton Murray has been up and down in his 8 relief appearances, and sits at 0-2 with a 4.66ERA in his 9.2 innings of work.  Murray has walked just 1 and struck out an impressive 10 hitters, however opponents are hitting .300 in what has been a very long season with a lot of innings for Murray.

P Ethan Stewart has had an abbreviated AFL season, suffering from minor arm issues.  He has struggled in his 4 AFL outings, sitting with an ERA of 6.75 and an abysmal WHIP of 2.06, mostly because of his 8 walks in 5.1IP.  The bright side is the 9 strikeouts, which against this level of competition is eye opening. Finally, Adam Morgan has thrown in 4 games (9.1IP) and is 1-0 with a 5.79ERA thus far. Reports have his velocity increasing into the high 80’s–low 90’s which is a good sign but less production that that hoped for thus far. Morgan has walked just 1 and struck out 8, but the 16 hits allowed has shown hit to be very hittable coming off his significant injury.

46 thoughts on “Open Discussion–Week of November 3rd”

  1. Are they really committed to getting younger? We shall see. Tomas and Moncada, find a way to get it done. Thanks

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  2. Moncada is really interesting, especially if he ends up falling under the International Signing bonus pool because a lot of the usual suspects will be out of the market from last years overspending. I haven’t seen much of a scouting report on him other than that he is faster than Castillo and has more upside than Castillo or Tomas.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/yoan-moncada-to-hold-showcase.html

    My uneasiness with the one dimensional Tomas at the price he is going to command is well documented.

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  4. Read an article in SI about the new focus in baseball on contact hitting, spray hitters, with focus on OBP, due to heavy shift usage and higher bullpen usage and increase in K’s. When reading this and thinking through this, the Phils struggles certainly make a lot of sense, in addition to the aging and injuries.

    In 2008, the Phils had two very high OBP guys playing corner OF with Burrell and Werth. The departure of those two players really hurt the OBP.

    Going forward, I’m not confident our GM will recognize the trend and continue to make decisions that would have been ok years ago, but not today. Yasmani Tomas is a concern to me. He seems like a guy who will likely not fit the above criteria.

    On the other hand, the plate discipline of Quinn and Crawford is very exciting. The idea of two high OBP speedsters occupying the 1-2 spots who are young and making modest salaries is something to hopefully build on. I remember a scout in summer 2008 telling me “there is nothing scarier for a visiting pitcher than watching Chase Utley stride to the plate in the top of the 1st inning at CBP with no outs and Rollins and Victorino standing on 1st and 2nd.”

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    1. Can understand the logic behind the trend change, especially in regards to the shifts that defensively teams employ anymore. Ryan Howard said he lost between 25 and 30 hits this past season due to the shift.
      Now when it comes to Yasmani Tomas, as a right-handed bat…..the shift is not normally employed…at least as much as I have seen with left-handed pull hitters.
      So that may be something to take in consideration in signing a power hitting righthanded bat like Tomas..

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  5. I wonder if a team in need of a closer finally pulls the trigger on Papelbon, granted that Ruben eats a significant amount of his contract. It may just be Papelbon’s option on his deal and/or questions about him as a clubhouse guy that have lead to teams avoid taking a chance on him.

    During his time with Boston, Papelbon averaged 36.5 saves and 4.67 blown saves per year.

    During his time in Philly Pap has averaged 35.33 saves and 5 blown saves per year.

    Sure he may not be able to reach back and blow fastballs past hitters like he used to, but at the end of the day he has been able to consistently close ball games. IMO Pap should have decent trade value. If you look at what the Rangers got from the Tigers for Soria I think we should expect a lesser version of that deal for Pap. Texas got Corey Knebler and Jake Thompson for Soria. Thompson was the Tigers #2 prospect going into 2014 and Knebel was #5. They now rank as the rangers # 6 and 7 prospects respectively. I don’t think it would be unreasonable to expect a couple of pitching prospects in a teams top 20 for Papelbon. I’m not saying 2 out of the top 10 like the rangers got, but maybe a #8-12 and a #15-20 prospect for Pap would be fair depending on the depth of the teams farm system.

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    1. Makes sense.
      Only question to be answered at this point, is trying to determine what teams would be in need of a closer like Papelbon.

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  6. Anyone have any info on Hamels no trade list? He was supposed to update it by November 1.

    Hamels can be traded to the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers without his consent.

    It will be interesting to see if any teams get added or dropped.

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    1. I believe that you are onto something here.

      The Cubs, with all their prospects and the front-office team of Epstein and Hoyer, are at least two years away from contending. That would be 2016 or later.

      You and I would both be happy if, in 2016, the Phils looked like the Cubs of today, but it’s probably going to take longer. Even if the Phils replace Montgomery and Amaro with a front office as capable as Epstein and Hoyer, that resemblance would not appear until 2017 or later – meaning that the Phils would not contend earlier than 2019 or 2020.

      So, even after making the questionable assumption that the Phils will soon have in place a talented front office, the Phillies’ drought, which began in 2012, will last at least eight or nine years.

      Ladies and gentlemen, I give you “The Phillies Way”.

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  9. Its not smart to put a time table on contending its not fair to the fans or the 25 players on the roster. Anything can happen and it only takes a single player in some cases to turn the fortunes of a franchise.

    The focus should simply be on acquiring as much young talent as possible and drafting and developing players and giving them the opportunity to play everyday.

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  10. I wonder if RAJ will do his usual and sprint out to sign certain guys he wants or will he wait for bargain basement types in a month or two. I wouldn’t mind signing two pitchers from the retread barrel, guys like Morrow and Billingsley. I still think Hamels and Byrd will get traded so they’ll need starting pitching. I just hope we don’t get a lot of nothing from RAJ and have to listen to him say that he couldn’t find guys he wanted for what he felt was market value.

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  12. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal on Monday night. He reported that the Phillies are ready to deal, and that other teams are ready to listen:

    ‘The Phillies are willing to move any player on their roster, but their most popular target in early trade discussions might surprise you. According to major-league sources, it’s right fielder Marlon Byrd ‘.

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  14. How about taking a look into signing Brett Anderson? If he can stay healthy he can be a very good 3 and someone who can be a part of the rebuild

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    1. It’s because people focus mostly on batting stats and his batting stats are good but sometimes a little frustrating. But he’s so much more than that. If he’s still healthy and fast next year (I expect he will be), just take a week or so to pay special attention to his fielding. There have been more spectacular fielders at the position, but Rollins makes every routine and challenging play again and again and again. He almost never muffs a ball, gets to more balls than most, has a great and accurate arm and never seems to make a wrong decision in the field. And he’s equally good – perhaps better – on the bases.

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      1. I would love to see how they do that stat/ He never bunts, never moves a runner. doent hustle to first. yet larry puts him up there as the greatest. I know what I see with my eyes, and this guy doesn’t hustle. so that stats is a waste of time to post.

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    2. Jose Altuve at 148, next to last, and Jimmy at 2.
      There must be some pretty big Little Things involved in the criteria.

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  16. I am curious.
    Are the Phillies and Dom Brown the NL team that the Rays are discussing with in a trade for Jeremy Hellickson!
    Both seem to be a match in which to resurrect careers after down years.
    I would hope Dom Brown, if traded, does not become the next Jose Bautista after he was traded from the Pirates.

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  17. Looks like the Mets won’t be signing Tomas as they just signed Michael Cuddyer to a two year contract. I don’t quite understand that one as they lose a 2nd round pick and it will be interesting to see if he can hit for power outside of Colorado. Cuddyer is a good player but he is not a power hitter and is versatile but is he worth a 2nd round pick?

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      1. Wow!!!! That is such a classic dumb ass Mets move. They were actually setting themselves up pretty well and then this – yeah, sure, let’s surrender the 15th pick of the draft and build around a 35 year old outfielder to go along with our other failed 35 year old outfielder who came after other failed thirty plus year old outfielders. If they were one player away from being a contender, I might excuse it, but they are rebuilding. Oh well, what do you say? Thank you?

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      2. The Mets lose the number 15 pick in 2015’s draft.
        Big risk since Cuddyer turns 36 next season.
        Did Sandy Alderson catch something from Ruben in Phoenix!

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        1. I read a lot of writers. most say its a stupid signing. But the one guy talks about the overvalue of draft choices and prospects. I never remember gms so afraid to move unproven talent for good veterans. I think its about the money, hopeing to control a cheaper player, for longer. which will burn you a lot. I believe it depends on how close you feel your team is to winning. I think with the mets pitching and the weak east, they think they can win now.

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    2. SSS at home and away since he didn’t play a ton in 2014, but his road SLG was half his home SLG and distinctly unimpressive, as was his road OPS. It’s a dumb signing.

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  18. Brett Anderson anyone? He’s someone if he can stay healthy could be around for the end of the rebuild and still be somewhat in his prime.

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    1. So the Royals and Phillies are talking a Howard exchange, especially if Butler decides to leave the Royals.
      I assume Howard and $50M could get you a LHP Cody Reed….also wouldn’t mind a Bubba Starling, though he and Reed are not in their top ten, or maybe fifteen, prospects list.

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      1. I’ll take what I can get but it doesn’t make sense to me that KC would be interested seeing how they are a left handed heavy line-up already. I would think they would be more interested in Byrd.

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  20. I think the best strategy for the Cubs this off-season is to sign Martin and a couple of FA pitchers and to avoid weakening their farm by trading for Hamels. They could sign Martin, Scherzer and/or Lester while losing, at most, their second- and third-round draft picks.

    If the Cubs do make a trade, maybe it should be Castro for more pitching, e.g., one of the Mets’ young pitchers. Trading Castro, who rebounded offensively in ’14, makes sense if the Cubs conclude that Russell or one of their other prospects is their future SS.

    The Cubs could also dip into free agency after next season when pitchers like Price and Greinke could be available. By going heavily into free agency these two off-seasons, the Cubs could be an emerging star-studded team in 2016, with three veteran no. 1s in an expensive rotation and a lot of talented but cheap position players.

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  22. Oh no – starting to feel bad for Biddle, almost as bad as I feel for us as Phillies phans

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  23. I really feel bad for Biddle. But, it is one thing after the other, and I think his Prospect status has taken a huge hit. I certainly hope this is not as ominous as the sound of it appears to be. After Nola, who would be our #2 Pitching prospect? I am looking forward to the prospect rankings here.

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    1. The buzz for Yoel Mecias seems to have grown steadily over the last year. He’s probably #2 right now. Matt Imhof is the next name that comes to mind, although BP listed Elniery Garcia in our top 10. He’s a guy I haven’t paid attention to before now — hopefully there’s something there.

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  24. I would be reluctant to del Hamels to the Red Sox. Their prospects tend to be overrated – Middlebrooks, Jackie Bradley, Jr., maybe Bogaerts.

    I would pass on the Red Sox. As I posted previously, I would also cross the Cubs off the list of potential trade partners because I think that the Cubs have better alternatives than trading for Hamels.

    I think that, at the moment, the best trading partner for the Phillies is the Pirates. Since the Bucs are losing Martin, a trade I would push for is Hamels, Chooch and a lot of cash for Glasnow, Bell and Meadows.

    (Although the Dodgers’ Urias may be the next pitching prodigy, I prefer the less-risky, 6’7″ Glasnow, who is a stud in his own right. Urias is very young and physically small, with very few professional innings under his belt.)

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    1. The Buccos amd Huntingdon, IMO, may look to replace Meadows with Ramirez,unless the Phillies were willing to put more in the return package.

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  25. I think pap has pitched well. That being said how does any gm give out a clause, that if you finish 15 games, you get another year, that is sick for a reliever. Amaro is a moron. totally a moron. what was he and Montgomery thinking.

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