Baseball Prospectus releases Phillies top ten

In case you haven’t heard (and really, what else were you doing with your Monday?), Baseball Prospectus released their Phillies Top 10 list today.

There aren’t any major surprises in the top three, with J.P. Crawford in the top slot, Aaron Nola at two, and Maikel Franco third. It’s pretty easy to expect that many lists will have those three guys at the top in some way, shape, or form.

Things get interesting at 4, as Yoel Mecias finds himself as a BP favorite. I don’t so much mind the aggressive ranking for Mecias, as he did show a lot in his return from Tommy John. That being said, it is an aggressive play to put him in that slot.

Jeff Moore of BP did remind us of one thing, though:

After the top three of Crawford-Nola-Franco, many lists will say many things this off-season. A lot of the 4-15 can depend on whether you like projectable guys, pitchers, speedy guys, recent college picks, etc.

As someone who has not yet finalized his own list, it’s always fun to see what others think. To say the least, my current list looks a bit different from BP’s.

The omission of Roman Quinn from the BP Top 10 is already drawing some controversy, and for good enough reason. He’s a guy that could draw in to many top ten lists, if not top fives. As of now, it would be hard to keep Quinn out of my top five.

His time in the Arizona Fall League has been valuable. He has hit .258/.372/.364 while stealing 13 bags in 15 attempts, and is said to be playing a comfortable center field.

BP’s full Top 10:

  1. SS J.P. Crawford
  2. RHP Aaron Nola
  3. 1B/ 3B Maikel Franco
  4. LHP Yoel Mecias
  5. LHP Jesse Biddle
  6. Deivi Grullon
  7. RF Kelly Dugan
  8. CF Carlos Tocci
  9. LHP Elniery Garcia
  10. OF Dylan Cozens

The only other mildly disappointing thing about the BP list is the complete lack of talk of Jesse Biddle’s concussion/brain issues. That was certainly a serious injury for him and set him back a bit, though BP seems to not mention anything about it.

Of course, this is just the first list of what will likely be many this off-season. Stay tuned for more arguing, more debate, and more fun.

25 thoughts on “Baseball Prospectus releases Phillies top ten

  1. Yeah. Dont see anyway possible Quinn isnt a top 10 prospect. The fact that he has elite speed alone should get him there. For me he’s probably gonna be 4th behind the big 3.

  2. Quinn…? Well, they’re waiting on his hit tool, i.e., contact rate. The guy is still trying to catch up from his delays due to injuries. His feet are now ahead of the rest of him. And, there remains further development in center fielding. Give the guy some leeway and time. THEN, he will likely justify a top 5 placement, IMO.

    1. It seem like its a little bit of jealousy in the BP first the commentary on air about his base stealing , if, if, a stolen base is a stolen base . Now it’s another thing his speed, his base running and now his eye contact Quinn is a better player athletic than any of these guys after the top 3 look what he done after he came back from injury , look what he’s doing at the afl what else do u want this guy to do u all r a bunch of critics

  3. I bet you Quinn is valued a lot higher by the organization and its followers than he is around the rest of the league. Won’t be the last prospect list that leaves the commenters on this site feeling like Quinn is beingranked too low. I would think a lot of teams feel like he is probably a 4th or 5th OF on a good team.

  4. One of the BP guys responded in the comments to quinn’s exclusion:

    “For me it’s as simple as the offensive profile being a bit light, the presence of contact issues, and the fact that he was limited in action this year due to the Achilles. I could see him in the Top 10 next year with a strong showing and some refinement on the offensive side. I’d also grant that you can make a case for him being a Top 10 guy this year depending on how willing you are to buy into his game on spec.

    Ultimately what we are buying and selling are risk profiles and upside. For me to buy into Quinn as an unquestionable Top 10 guy I need to believe the foundational value (value that is inherent to his profile) is high enough to outweigh the risk on the offensive side.

    He’ll swipe bags but needs to continue to improve upon his reads on the bases and jumps to limit the outs he makes. He has taken well to center field, but I don’t think it’s imprudent to want a slightly larger sample before you buy into him as a legit plus or better defender.

    Lots of scenarios where he completes 2015 with a firm foothold on the org list, and maybe even the Top 101 discussions. Improved offensive profile, a full year of top tier glove work in center, improved base stealing acumen and better reads on the bases in-game, etc. He hits a couple of those and the stock rises quickly. But, at least for me, he’s not there yet.”

    1. And that sounds entirely fair. Nick even mentions Quinn as a top 100 candidate with a strong season, so it’s not like he’s writing him off as a prospect. Plus, as Victor said in the article, there’s probably almost no difference between Garcia at 9 and Quinn at 11 or 12.

    2. Wow! Repetitive of what I wrote above. Seems to make sense to me…

      Concentrating on contact at the plate and better routes in CF. Still under development. Another 2 seasons could put it together.

    3. Certainly seems like a defensible rationale, although I’d argue that someone you think could rise so quickly that he could be in the Top 100 discussion next year probably deserves a spot at the back of the org Top 10. It sounds like what he’s really saying is: “You can make an argument that Quinn could be one of the Phillies best prospects next year, but I’m not buying the upside personally, and I’d rather use my long-shot “I called it” ranking on a GCL pitcher who’s not even on the hardcore fans’ radar at the moment.”

      Which is fine, but I personally still think Quinn is a much better prospect than a couple of the guys on the list.

    4. It’s not that I disagree with the assessment. It’s that I disagree with the placement. I don’t think those rated above him have a better profile.

    5. U said need to read bases more how many times have he been caught stealing compare to stolen bases I dnt see any case Quinn need to make and for his offense how many error compared to other OF have he made

    6. Pat rankin does not matter Quinn is a better prospect than what u say is anyone in ur list that has a perfect contact rate or else did u ever play baseball and switch hit and had a better contact ranking all other guys is not switch hitting or coming back from shortstop for the last two and a half years back to centerfield and had perfection

      1. Not my words, that was from the guy who did the rankings. BP would’ve gone out of business years ago if I was scouting for them.

  5. I wonder if the reaction to Quinn being left off would have been greater, less or the same if Quinn had been ranked @8 and Tocci had been left off, or Quinn had been ranked @10 and Cozens had been left off.

    1. I think leaving off either of those guys in favor of Quinn wouldn’t have elicited a lot of noise around here, except maybe from a few people saying: “Aha! I told you Tocci sucks!”

  6. I was trying to determine where Mecias was going on my top 30. Last year, he had 70Ks in 57 innings at Lkwd. After coming back from the injury, he had 33Ks in 50 innings. He seemed to be getting his strength back near the end of the season. I was hoping we’d see him a little in winter ball but nothing so far. #4 seems high but who else are you going to slot there? I hope Mecias starts in CLW. That would be great for a 21 year old. I’d like to see him have a full season and continue his progress. Reading by the end of summer might be too much to ask but a guy can hope.

  7. What is the scouting report on Elniery Garcia? For a teen ager to be ranked so highly he must have some tools. Is he really just 6’0 155 lbs? Is he really a better prospect than Severino Gonzalez, listed at 6’1″ 153 lbs? Gonzalez, answered some concerns about his stature by pitching 159 innings at AA at 21-years of age.

    1. He’s smallish but his frame suggests he could add some more weight and maybe velocity. Fastball is currently something like 88-92 and he throws strikes with it. He also throws a curve and change that could be plus pitches eventually.

  8. I love it that Franco is 3rd because he is still an as good a prospect as he was last year, giving the Phillies 2 prospects better than their top prospect of a year ago. It is a big improvement over two winters ago when I put Ruf as their #1 prospect ahead of interchangeable (to me at the time) question marks like Biddle, Joseph, Morgan, Pettibone, Franco, Asche, Martin and Quinn. The two third basemen, Franco and Asche are the only ones of that group to remain injury-free for the last two seasons. All might still be good if they can get and stay healthy, a big if especially for because pitcher and catcher are injury-prone positions. That was was a big reason I put Ruf ahead of Biddle, Pettibone, and Morgan.

    (I still defend my pick of Ruf that year and am am still impatiently waiting for him to get a chance at a regular job in the big leagues so we can see if he is actually a good major league hitter. Since 2012 I have maintained that he is better than Ryan Howard and I think he is better than Matt Adams.)

  9. Can we get someone over to Australia to sign Tim Kennelly again? The guy’s hitting .529 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. He can play all 9 positions and I believe he has. Pointer and Walding are over there too and not doing too much. Can we sign him to a Ryan Howard type deal or at least a Tomas expected deal? He says with tongue in cheek.

    1. I wonder what happened to Dylan Cozens?
      He was suppose to be playing in the ABL also with Pointer and Walding.

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