General Discussion – Week of 9-9-14 – Franco In The Two-Hole Edition

Weekly Discussion

Since I hijacked yesterday’s General Discussion with my departure announcement, here’s a fresh thread for all things Phillies. Something of note – Maikel Franco is batting second tonight with JRoll out of the lineup. He fits the “contact hitter” part of the traditional number two hitter. Not sure he fits any of the other typical traits you’d expect there. Maybe he’ll turn out to be a really awesome bunter and just no one’s ever given him the chance, ya know?

Discuss.

125 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 9-9-14 – Franco In The Two-Hole Edition”

  2. I am just happy he’s playing! Be interesting with the interleague games coming up if Howard DH’s and it’s Franco and Asche (1B and 3B) or Ruf is at first, etc.

    Let’s face it, that pretty much spells out the intrigue left for the season.

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  3. I like my 2 hole hitter to be a good hitter. I don’t really care about bunting. That being said, I doubt Franco will be a good hitter (or a good bunter) for another year to two at least. If he he’s playing in MLB next year I’m guessing his line would be something like .250/.290/.380. In other words, I hope they give him at least another year in the minors.

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    1. Agree Will. Hope he starts off with LV next season. They can call him up at the end of June if he’s producing

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    3. I like seeing other guys in the two hole. If Franco is going to play they should move him around the lineup a bit to see where he is the most comfortable.

      You can’t just push young guys to the bottom of the roster and let others just mess up the lineup.

      It has been horrible watching Howard hit in the four spot.

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  4. They might do what they did with Schmidt and just bring him up letting him learn from doing it in the big league. He looks great at third.

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      1. I know this will take flack but I would buyout Howard, trade Byrd, and let Sizemore walk.

        Sign Tomas, move Franco to first, and give Brown one last chance in the OF.

        Longer term, Crawford replaces Rollins and depending the decision on Quinn depends on Brown and Qunn’s development.

        Grab some starters in the offseason who had bad headline stats but good advanced stats on a one year rebound contract.

        Watch the rehab and progress for guys like Martin, Pettibone, and Biddle.

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          1. David,

            For all we disagree on some things, this is (mostly) what I would advocate.

            But the idea of moving Franco to first is kind of insane. I guess one could see it as a way to build up his value and Asche’s value before trading one of them, and then installing the other as the long term solution at third, but don’t buy it*, and a permanent move to first would be essentially throwing Franco’s career in the dumpster.

            *If you really want to delay the decision as to which one of them is the long term solution at third beyond mid 2015 (which I don’t necessarily think is wise) and maximize both player’s values, keep Asche at third in the majors and play Franco at third in AAA.

            Larry

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  5. He is almost a Tony Larussa style 2 hole hitter, He always loved power out of the number two spot , however he also like walks there to but hey that is why I said almost

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  6. I’ve said this in other posts, after seeing Franco play in person (AA and AAA) he obviously isn’t a fast guy however he isn’t slow either. When I think of slow I think of Ryan Howard, when I think fast I think Ben Revere and then average is prob Byrd . . . Franco is closer to average then he is slow. IMO it’s that he’s not quick (in terms of busting outta the box or getting jumps) but once he gets going his speed is fine, a non issue. Tonight has kinda shown it . . On the “double” that was lost in the lights he made it to second relatively easy (he wasn’t going full speed until he realized that Walker wasn’t going to make the play) something Howard (a slow runner) wouldn’t have been able to do. Just an observation.

    On a side note . . This is the year where the Phillies prospects who have been traded away have made impacts (meaning cracked the 25 man) in their respective organizations.

    Trevor May up with the Twins and starting tonight (24ip 9.38 ERA 7.9K/9)

    Carlos Carrasco has been pitching lights out with the Indians (103.2ip 2.69 ERA 9K/9)

    Jarred Cosart has been one of the best SP in baseball since the trade deadline with the Marlins (40.2ip 1.99 ERA 5.1K/9)

    Jonathan Singleton is the starting 1B for the Astros (.176/.291/.355 13HR ton of K’s)

    Domingo Santana was briefly called up with the Astros (.000/.056/.000 14K’s in 18 AB wow)

    Jonathan Villar starting SS (or talents was) with the Astros (.200/.260/.339 15SB)

    Travis D’Arnaud starting C with the Mets (.246/.308/.420 13HR)

    Lisalverto Bonilla RP with the Rangers (3ip 3.00 ERA)

    I don’t think I missed anyone but that would be 3 SP, half of your infield plus a catcher, an OF and a pitcher out of the bullpen. It would be interesting to see where they would fall in our current top 20 list.

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    1. I think you are overstating some of these players impact; agree that Jared Cosart would look very good in a Phillies uniform along with D’Arnaud. The others you listed are not doing great but could improve as they are young.

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    2. Is there a slower runner in the majors than Howard? He’s an extreme case of slowness. Franco might be fine once he gets going but that doesn’t mean that being slow to get started doesn’t affect him. Anytime he hits a ball in the infield or takes off from a base, that’s still extra time it’s taking him to reach his destination.

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      1. Well obviously . . however he isn’t someone who is going to get infield singles so that part doesn’t matter, more so on ground balls that could turn into double plays. However players whom are power hitters are usually not concerned with speed. All I’m saying is that he isn’t as slow and people have made him out to be and you can work on quickness on the bases, speed not so much. Franco also looks to have a high baseball IQ. When he had the go ahead single tonight he was headed to 2B as soon as he saw it wasn’t getting cut off with ZERO hesitation, it’s good to see his aggressiveness. Speed doesn’t always make you a good base runner anyways for example Werth was a relatively fast runner however he was a poor base runner.

        As far as the players I listed, I stated after “impact” that I meant cracking the 25man roster. It’s an accomplishment in itself just making a ML roster no matter what team.

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          1. Well Carlos Carrasco is pitching like a 1 or 2 right now which was always what his upside was so I’d love to have him. Cosart is doing the same as Carrasco so he’s another. May has very good stuff, his issue has always been a high walk rate however I’d take him as well. Singleton is a coin flip, he K’s almost at a 40% rate but has legit power with a usual high OBP (his minor league career) . . I’ll take him back as well. Domingo Santana imo is going to be good player, the K’s are Extremely concerning but give me him too and if D’Arnaud was in our system I don’t know that we would have resigned Ruiz. So I guess Villar is the only one that I wouldn’t want, I’m sure just about everyone on here would take Carrasco/Cosart/May/Singleton/Santana/D’Arnaud/Bonilla. You wouldn’t?

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            1. Um, well I guess I’ll be the voice of support for Ruben Amaro and say I’ll take Cliff Lee’s 2009 (even leaving aside 2011-present, even though they obviously probably wouldn’t have happened if not for the trade) and Roy Halladay’s 2010-2013 for whatever Carrasco and D’Arnaud become. Getting a Cy Young caliber pitcher in his prime to pitch for your World Series contending team should end up hurting you a little–fair’s fair.

              Even I won’t defend the Pence trade, though, we all know it was horrendous.

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            2. That half a season from Cliff Lee is worth more than anything Carrasco will ever do in my eyes. The only thing that hurts is that they traded Lee in 2010 to poorly restock the system. The impression the city left on him in that time is also a big part of what brought him back. Anyone traded for Lee or Halladay shouldn’t be pined over. None of those players will come close to the value those two had. Cosart and Santana are the only two players I would like to have back. A good few months in AAA aren’t enough to pine for May either.

              Obviously we all love to live in the hypothetical world of “ifs” and “buts” when it comes to this team, but I wouldn’t mind the Hunter Pence trade if the Phillies had extended him. Especially if they had picked Werth over Howard. An outfield with Werth/Revere/Pence around the horn would be a really good outfield, and anyone but Howard at 1B would make this team better. Obviously in hindsight I would rather they had traded Brown instead of Cosart, or most of those players in reality, but it’s what RAJ did after the initial trades that made them bad deals. Trading Pence for pennies on the dollar makes watching Cosart difficult. If Pence were here putting up the numbers he is in San Fran, or if they had actually acquired more than a fringe catching prospect, I would get over it. Trading Lee at all was the worst part of trading for him. They would’ve done better taking a draft pick for him if they couldn’t resign him after one more season of cheap, top notch starting pitching. Revere is still pretty young. If he actually matures, and he has gotten better every year in the majors, he could hit .340, and steal 40 bases a year before his arb years are over. I’ll take that over a wildly inconsistent back end starter.

              Most teams, and most successful teams don’t have more than 6 or 7 homegrown players on the 25 man roster. The real value in 90% of a teams farm system is in acquiring players. Brown was the #4 prospect in all of baseball in 2011. Despite his below average defense and the giant hole in his swing. Just because some prospect list rates them high, it doesn’t mean they’re not worth trading. In fact, it’s those prospect lists that teams like the Phillies obviously use to determine who’s “untouchable”. Draybek was untouchable and Carrasco and Cosart weren’t. Brown was untouchable and D’Arnaud, Singleton, and Santana weren’t. It’s good to trade prospects for established major leaguers. It’s also good to extract value out of aging major leaguers and acquire prospects. The Phillies do an awful job at the latter, that’s why the team stinks. Getting first round picks for not resigning Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Lee, as well as not giving up a first rounder for a geriatric Ibanez would have put this team in a better position for the future than holding on to any of those prospects. Everyone is so sentimental when it comes to the 2007-2011 core guys, but also overvalues prospects. You can’t have it both ways.

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            3. Wait I wasn’t saying I wouldn’t do the trades . . . I thought you just wanted to know what players I’d like back in the system, meaning basically what players I thought were good players who may have a future.

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            4. Under the old CBA it was a heavy split towards free agents but under the new CBA that has changed. You need a heavy dose of homegrown guys against free agents.

              The cost to sign a top free agent now makes it difficult in terms of keeping the system replenished.

              The days of buying a championship in free agency are over.

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            5. Actually, Redbeard, that’s an interesting counterfactual: what if the Phillies had “picked” Werth over Howard, signing Werth to a big extension in 2010 instead of Howard. Werth had a pretty cruddy year in 2011, but with him playing RF and hitting righthanded, there’s no need to trade for Pence to balance out the lineup.

              Then, if you want to go back to 2010, signing Werth to a long-term deal would have blocked top prospect Domonic Brown, forcing the team to either 1)trade Brown at the absolute peak of his prospect value, or 2)shift Brown to left field in Lehigh Valley, giving him a low-pressure period of time in AAA to learn the position with the expectation that he will take over for the aging Raul Ibanez in 2011, with Ibanez shifting to a bench role. That turns out to be a blessing in disguise when Brown breaks a bone in his hand in Spring Training 2011, and a Ben Francisco/Ibanez platoon is able to fill in until Brown fully regains his strength (instead of what really happened, which was that he was called up in desperation in May 2011 because Francisco was sucking as an everyday RF).

              With an extra few months to rehabilitate and work on his defense, Brown is able to get fully healthy and arrives to Philadelphia full of confidence in July 2011. Ibanez moves to a bench role as the backup OF/1B/lefthanded bat off the bench. While Werth is struggling in the first year of that huge contract, he’s still a righthanded bat, and with the Phillies running away with the division Charlie Manuel can afford to indulge his usual “stick with my guys” sentiments and pencil him in as #5 in the lineup every day behind Howard. In July, when Amaro is desperate to inject some offensive life into the lineup, he can call up a lefthanded in-house option, Brown, instead of going for a big trade deadline acquisition. Instead, with a surplus of outfielders, Amaro makes only a small move, trading John Mayberry Jr. (who is showing everyday player promise in a nice season) to the rebuilding Indians for righthanded hitting utility infielder Orlando Cabrera, to serve as a backup to Chase Utley and his gimpy knees. Sadly, this spells the end of the road with the Phillies for Rule 5 pick Michael Martinez, who is sent back to Nationals, never to be heard from again.

              Though Brown hardly burns up the league the way Pence did down the stretch in 2011, the Phillies still coast into the last game of the season with 98 wins and the best record in the national league. Late in that game–meaningless for the Phillies but crucial for their opponent, the Braves, who must win to make a one-game playoff for the Wild Card–Manuel pinch runs for the gimpy Howard with Ben Francisco, who stays in the game to play CF. (Not as in real life, Martinez). In the 9th, with the speedy Michael Bourn on first, Chipper Jones rips what looks like a sure double into the gap–and it is a double, because instead of making a ridiculous catch, as Martinez did, Francisco is Ben Francisco, and can’t get to the ball. Braves win in a thrilling walk-off, forcing the Cardinals to start Chris Carpenter on short rest in the sudden death game. Carpenter wins, of course, because he is Chris Carpenter. And because Tony LaRussa is Tony LaRussa, he somehow still manages to get Carpenter ready to pitch out of the bullpen in the late innings of the deciding Game 5 of the NLDS.

              Trailing 1-0 with two outs in the 8th inning, Manuel turns to his most trusted lefthanded pinch hitter–not Ross Gload, but Raul Ibanez, the crafty veteran. Ibanez rips a game-tying home run, not at all unlike the one he would end up hitting off the bench in real life for the Yankees in the playoffs the next year. Madson retires the Cards in order in the 9th. And then in the bottom of the inning, the second man up, the rightfielder–Jayson Werth, not Hunter Pence–redeeems his season by hitting a dramatic walk-off blast off of Carpenter, as free-agent-to-be Ryan Howard leaps for joy in the batters box, feeling a slight twinge in his ankle.

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        3. I’m not sure what your basis is for Werth being a poor baserunner, but I don’t remember him that way and his stats as a baserunner say that he’s above average.

          Franco’s lack of quickness will impact him anytime there’s a play where he might go 1st to 3rd or where he might score from 2nd on a single. I’m not saying it will make him a bad baserunner but it is a shortcoming in his game.

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          1. You’re kidding me right? How many time did Werth get picked off at 2nd base in his tenure with the Phillies? I can remember at least 3x which is a crazy amount to get picked at 2b (he was picked off once bc he wasn’t paying attention to the game and was watching Brett Myers stick his tongue out at him, really?) He was terrible at reading where balls were hit in order to get good jumps . . The fact that he had above average speed saved him on a number of occasions.

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  7. So far IMO Franco has shown that he will be playing 3B over Asche just because of his defense alone. Asche has been good at third, but definitely have the arm Franco does. That play where Franco dove and then threw out McCutchen was sick. Asche may have been able to stop the ball, but no way does he throw out McCutchen. Franco has not exactly lit it up with the bat yet, but he is young. I have been impressed by the fact that his hasn’t stuck out much and that he has gone the other way for a few of his hits. There is still plenty of time for him to get comfortable and launch a few balls and draw a walk or two. He is one of the few reasons I watch the big club play anymore.

    On a side note, I wonder how much time Rollins is really going to miss with his hamstring injury. He is older and I believe he has had hamstring issues in the past. I would love to see Galvis get a look at SS and put up decent numbers at the plate. I am not saying that Galvis is the future SS of the Phillies. I do however think he could play SS until JPC is ready. I just wonder if Galvis playing SS could be a bit of a jolt for an aging lineup. If he plays well I think the org. has to think about convincing Rollins to play elsewhere and come back to retire here. In all likelihood this will never happen, but I would think a return for Rollins would be decent. If Rollins is not the guy move than Howard has to be. This team needs some new faces.

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    1. Phillies will need to make a decision next season.
      Galvis or Hernandez.
      Both out of options after 2015.
      Freddy can play most all positions well. Cesar may have a better hit tool, but limited in the field to maybe 2nd or OF back-up.

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      1. There’s probably room for both. They don’t need to have an Andres Blanco/Reid Brignac type around. Combined Galvis and Hernandez give you stopgaps at six positions, seven if you count Galvis at 1B which you won’t need since Ruf will be around. Add a backup catcher and another OF and you’re bench is set without having to go get a FA.

        Now, if one of them can’t perform during the year and you have a better option waiting in the minors, (not sure who that would be, maybe somehow Albert Cartwright or Edgar Duran breaks out at AAA or something), then you’re stuck trying to pass them through waivers. Really, though, if one of those guys is bad enough on the bench to be surpassed by the likes of Cartwright or Duran, I’m not going to cry if they can’t slip through and land elsewhere.

        If they succeed in a starting role elsewhere, then maybe I’ll cry. Ok, probably I will cry.

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        1. Yes…agree there……like to see both on the team.
          Both switch-hitters and that is a plus for a manager in making line-ups.

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    2. That was a great play, throwing out McCutcheon. I think we’ve now seen our 3B of the future, starting sometime in 2015. Asche could be a nice trade piece- he’d make a great Astro.

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  8. John Finger, CSN on Maikel Franco:
    “He’s not quite there yet, but Franco certainly has the tools to someday be mentioned alongside of Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen as the best fielding third basemen in team history”
    ….tall order for sure..

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    1. Okay, THAT’S ridiculous. I’m convinced that the worries about his defense were overblown – and that he can be an average defense third baseman (at least for now – maybe not in a couple of years), maybe even a little bit better than average. But the chance that he’s in the same conversation as two guys who were not just the best fielding third basemen in Phillies history, but probably among the top 10 fielding third basemen in major league history, is absurd.

      But yes his defensive performance so far is encouraging. For what little it is worth, his metrics so far are good. Very small sample of course.

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      1. Franco seems to get the accolades from all the coaches and managers who have watched him at third thru the last three season. With being voted the best 3rd basemen in the Int League this year.
        Apparently his metrics , though SSS, speak to that.
        Though I I can see him being, when it comes to Phillies third basemen in the past, somewhere hovering between a Pedro Feliz and the Schimdt/Rolen level.

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  9. I knew franco could field, watching him on tv most Saturdays, I never understood the people who said he wasn’t a good defensive third basemen. The biggest issue imo on Franco is pitch selection.

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    2. I do t remember anyone saying he wasn’t a good fielder. The talk was always about whether we would always remain one as he gets older (range issues )

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        1. He has range issues.

          They aren’t debilitating right now. They can be a bit hard to see at times, but if you line him up next to other 3B doing drills, and watch him make the same play as another 3B you can see the range limitations. The hands and arm (which I think has room for more) are very good, so he is going to make some good looking plays. But the range issues are real though, and if he loses more speed, that is where the real problem comes in. But he can stick over there right now (and is better than Asche)

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  10. For the people that suggested Cody Asche would be an all-star 3b, that may still happen but it won’t be in a Phillies uniform. I don’t see Asche as much more than a fringe major leaguer but if other teams beleive he can be an above average starter at 3b maybe the Phillies can get some value back for him, a back of the rotation starter perhaps.

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    1. I’m still a bit more optimistic than you are about Asche, but don’t see him as a potential all star.

      What I’d like to see is a few months – this month (likely platoon role with Franco) and the first couple months of next year before Franco is brought up* of improved play by Asche to drive up his trade value, which IMO is currently low. His defense is already improving – though IMO still not as good as Franco’s (who would have thought THAT would be the case a year ago); it would be nice to see him bump his hitting up similarly. If he can grade out as even an average regular during that time period his trade value will be greater.

      *There is zero chance that he will start the year in Philadelphia for well known reasons; even the Phillies wouldn’t be stupid enough to screw that up.

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  11. It will be very interesting to see what the team does with Asche in spring training. They’ll want him to get ready at 3b because I’m sure he’ll start the season there but they will probably want to find out if 2b is a possibility for him down the road, both as a starter and as a possible future bench player. If he doesn’t get his average closer to 300 with at least 15 – 20 homer power, he’s looking at being a bench player unless he can play 2b. I don’t think his bat plays as a LF so I wouldn’t even try him there other than to expand his bench capabilities. Having said that, I still think he could be a 300 hitter if he can learn to stay in the strike zone.
    As for Galvis vs Cesar next year for a bench spot, Galvis wins that easily with his superior fielding. They’ll also need a 4th OF who plays CF since Ruf can’t play CF and I don’t think Cesar played it well enough. That means it will be an 8th reliever vs Cesar for the 25th spot.

    At least we know that we have all the pieces of next year’s bullpen already in place in house. This will allow them to use their money to chase starting pitching. Hamels and Buchannan are it right now with nothing coming from the minors at least until mid-season. Who will they chase? Also, I could easily see them trade Dom for a starting pitcher but then they would need to find a LF somewhere. Morse will be a FA again as will Melky. Pickings appear very slim in the OF FA market. This will actually make Byrd valuable if the Phils decide to trade him but then there would be the issue of who will play RF. Sizemore would make a good 4th OF but his health should prevent anyone from thinking he could start and play 150 games.

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    1. Buchanan has been done a great job this season. He is the kind of guy you want as a #5 starter. He battles and keeps his team in the game.

      If Lee comes back healthy I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hamels dealt. I think Ruben knows even if Lee is healthy he won’t bring back the kind of return they want. Hamels is going to bring the best return for us no doubt. Ideally, we trade Hamels and have Lee and maybe Burnett at the top of the rotation. Burnett hasn’t been consistent as far as performance, but he pitches every fifth day and can go deep into games. I would try and get a young pitcher in return for Hamels who could slide in at #3 (along with some other prospects/players). Williams or the equivalent can be our #4 and Buchanan #4, with a few depth type pitchers for AAA incase someone goes down. Hopefully a team will trade for Byrd since the free agent market is not very deep this year. The team is going to be bad anyway so trading these guys is the best move. Time to start acquiring guys who can possible be apart of the next core group and make this team a contender again.

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      1. I think one thing we’re really going to have to think about this offseason when we rank prospects is whether we’ve been underestimating the value of guys like Buchanan. When a guy who is unranked on our Top 30s (and Matt’s) ends up making his mark as a solid major league starter, it’s maybe time to do a little reevaluation. And we’ll have a lot of Buchanan-esque objects to look at come the offseason, given the number of college starters the Phillies took this year.

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          1. It’s not just the collegiate pitchers. Kyle Kendrick has won a lot of major league games for a guy who was never high on our prospect lists. In his rookie season, he was plucked from AA. A lot of pitchers have fallen into this category for us: not dominant, did well for a short time or some years — Worley, Happ, Pettibone.

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        2. Well that’s the ceiling/floor debate (usually tools vs. proximity). What do you (and others around baseball) value more: someone with a chance to be a star, or someone who will be average but more likely to contribute?

          In fact, to refer to the previous draft, this debate could be summed up as “Who do you like more, Aiken or Nola?” I think most people will take the upside if it’s high enough.

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          1. Yeah, I personally don’t think Buchanan’s initial success is an indicator at all for Milner. I think Ogando and Luis Garcia are likely to contribute way more to the Phillies than guys like Milner who, in my view, are little more than organizational filler.

            The team is doing a really good job acquiring and developing power relievers. Now I’d like to see them take that philosophy of acquiring good arms another step to where the team is focused on acquiring or developing strong armed starters. There’s only so far you can go with guys like Kendrick and Milner and Buchanan – sure, they’re fine to have around and can save you some money, but they really aren’t the guys you build championship teams around. Buchanan might be a little bit better than that, but unless he starts throwing a bit harder (unlikely, but possible), his upside is a 4, which is fine but hardly anything to write home about. I want to see some potential difference makers in the rotation just as we are now starting to see some difference makers in the bullpen. Aren’t they fun to watch?

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            1. If you want rotation difference makers just go drool over the short season arms. Arms like Kilome, Garcia, Ramos, and Pinto all have big upside if they can continue to grow. That doesn’t include Alezones, Keys, and McWilliams who still need to fill out.

              The great part about the org filler and back end guys is that they are taking them late in drafts and turning them into useful pieces.

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          2. Yeah, I know you said nice things about Buchanan in the past. Maybe the truth is that there are a bunch of guys who could be David Buchanan or Mario Hollands if the opportunity opens up for them at just the right time and they are healthy enough to seize it, but there are few guys in any system who will ever be bona fide stars, which brings us back to the floor/ceiling thing. I think most of these lists tend to be biased in favor of ceiling because, let’s face it, it’s more fun to say, “Dylan Cozens is going to be a 40-HR monster in the majors” than “Brandon Liebrandt might give you 180 innings of slightly-above-replacement-level performance if it all goes right.”

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            1. Not sure this is ceiling/floor in this case. This is Buchanan’s ceiling, his floor is AAA starter who never makes the majors. It is hard to be high on a guy whose best case scenario is LOOGY or fringe starter, because that guy is easier to find and their impact is small.

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        4. Agreed and I really think we’ve undervalued our core group of young relievers to a certain extent. It’s looking increasingly likely that Kenny Giles is going to become (and perhaps already is) an elite relief pitcher – a 2 – 3 war reliever; an extraordinarily rare commodity in baseball. I’m not saying that the site’s readers undervalue relievers as a group – to the contrary, I think they put them in the proper perspective. I do, however, think we are undervaluing the power of a great reliever and a great bullpen.

          And, the more I watch baseball, the more I think that, while it is true that bullpens may ebb and flow from year to year, when you have truly great pitchers with great stuff, I think that’s less likely to happen absent injuries. So, yeah, Justin DeFratus may pitch to a 3.8 ERA next year, but I don’t think that’s going to happen to Kenny Giles.

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          1. I agree with your point. The big problem with relievers, and I have talked with other people about this, is there is no such thing as a dominant relief prospect. The upside is Giles and has soon as he shows it, he is in the majors. The downside is that they can’t find command and they are Aumont. It is such a thin line and so rankings are compromises between upside and floor.

            As for Giles, I don’t think anyone expected him to go from flashing a 6 slider and fringy control last fall to a 7 slider and good control this spring. If we knew that, I think he is ranked much higher. More than anything it proves any list is only valid until the next look at a player.

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          2. One of the biggest values to a homegrown good (or great) bullpen is that it gives you salary relief. The Phillies have several homegrown quality arms that are CHEAP, MLB min. cheap.

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        5. I think we might’ve just missed a bit on Buchanan specifically because we had Worley and Pettibone in the top 10 in their final seasons before promotion (although Worley ended up being better than a #5 type).

          I think there’s a few knocks on these types of pitchers:

          -You don’t really want more than one of them in your rotation. And in years when a better prospect (who may struggle initially) is penciled in as a starter, you probably don’t want this type of pitcher in your rotation at all.

          -They’re only valuable while super cheap, so they’re only assets during their first four years.

          -When they’re unlucky, they’re terrible. Look at Kendrick and Buchanan’s K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 this year. They’re practically identical. But Kendrick has had a few more hits drop in against him, and the sequencing of the hits he’s given up hasn’t been particularly kind to him. If Buchanan is fortunate enough to pitch for several seasons, it’ll almost certainly happen to him a few times too.

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    2. Asche won’t be a .300 hitter, so if his future as a regular is dependent upon that then he has none.

      But it isn’t. Even getting his BA to .280 and his defense to league average while maintaining his other numbers would make him an average regular. If you think the latter is unlikely, bumping up the power a little is a more realistic goal than getting his average to .300.

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    3. Asche has already failed miserably at 2B . . . Maybe if it’s seen as his last option to stick with the Phillies he’ll work his butt off and become an average defensive 2B however there has never been a question about his work ethic. 2B just may not be a legit option for him.

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      1. Maybe they will try to move Dom Brown this off-season and if successful, then try Asche in LF….maybe platoon with Ruf, when Ruf is playing first base for Howard vs lefties.

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    2. The Phillies kept their core together to insure the new cable deal and now they have young talent coming up to replace the core. The Phillies are a business and the owners will act accordingly for their own interests.

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      1. Sorry but I guess you don’t fully understand that MLB is big business and its owners look after themselves not the fans.

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        1. The negotiating tactic of keeping them here for the negotiations did not work on anyone. Everybody on the other side of the table knew the state of the team.

          The Phillies were not hiding anything by keeping guys around through negotiations. If anything it hurts their position because the people on the other side know that once negotiations are concluded they will go the rebuilding mode.

          The TV Networks knew that the team was on a downward trend. The record over the last few years bear that out. That is not something the Phillies could hide from the networks.

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          1. David, the Phillies will recieve 2.5 Billion and a substantial stake in Comcast Philadelphia for the TV rights. Their stake in Comcast Philadelphia could allow them to start their own Internet/TV network like the Yankees have done. I call that a great deal for the Phillies owners no matter how you look at it.

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            1. I thought they had a limited, minority position in Comcast Philadelphia and would not be able to start their own TV Network (unless Comcast approves and even then Comcast would own it I suppose). The $100 million a year sound awesome, right now, but the deal is incredibly long. I’m not sure $100 million will sound so great in 2040. The deal is fairly confidential, so we don’t know if it has the type of escalator clauses that will allow it to remain a good deal in 20 years or so. I guess we’ll see.

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            2. I think they did a great job on the TV deal but one of the points that gets made is ‘they kept the core around for the tv negotiations’ is silly because if you are Comcast sitting across the table you know the record over the past few years, talent pool in the minors, and everything else.

              Keeping the core around for negotiations is not a good tactic because the people on the other side know that you will rebuild next year.

              If they cut ties early they would have gotten the same deal by playing up the fact that the team will be back on top by year 3 rather than year 5.

              You are looking at the team’s prospects over the life of the deal not worried about guys playing for just the first year or so.

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            5. It’s actually a pretty good article – it’s hard to say I disagree with much he says with a few exceptions. I’m much more optimistic about Nola than the scout that saw him. I think Nola’s going to be quite good – he should be a 3 and might even be a 2 with an outside shot at being a 1 if he improves his velocity a little. This guy has velocity, movement and command and very good mound presence.

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            6. A lot of the people that saw Nola late in the year noted that his stuff didn’t look that great. I think he gets a pass on that due to being tired at the end of a long season. The reports on the early starts he had after the draft were much more positive about his stuff. I see him as a solid shot to be a 3 with an outside shot at being a 2. I can’t see him being a 1 unless his changeup really takes a leap forward and becomes a super effective pitch.

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            7. Handzus I hope that I am wrong, but see Nola as a little better than Kendrick an Buchannan, a 4 o 5 at cheap price,

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            8. rocco….the kid just turned 21 a few months…and dominated the SEC for two years…many hitters a year or two older then him.
              His stuff may not be off the charts, but very serviceable and great command and also control.
              And though he is not a mid-90s to high-90s guy, ala Strasberg/Harvey, he may be able to avoid the scurge of TJs going around, though that is not limited to high 90s guys.
              I would let it play out……I see a good three and possibly a #2, after 4/5 years in the league.

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            9. Romus everything I say about this kid is off what I have read, I NEVER saw him pitch in college or minors, so its only based on what I have read. when you say a three that isn’t what I expected with the seventh pick in the draft. but hopefully he proves me wrong.

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          2. Except negotiations were concluded and they still slept through this year’s trade deadline. I think time to stop reaching for explanations beyond ‘this is just the way this ownership group has always behaved’. They think ‘names’, however faded and on however non-competitive a team, can be replied upon to sell tickets.

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            1. I think there’s some truth to this, but what I think you miss is that there are alternative explanations for “sleeping” through the trade deadline last year – some problematic, some not so much. From most problematic to least, these explanations are as follows:

              (1) Overvaluing their own veterans.
              (2) Hard to trade contracts.
              (3) Players with 5 and 10 rights.
              (4) An understandable desire to get good value for certain players (I’m thinking Hamels in particular).

              I happen to think there is some truth to ALL of this – they together explain the inaction. I think we can reasonably debate which of these explanations is more powerful, but it’s clearly not JUST a matter of thinking that the veterans help sell tickets (something that, in a couple of cases, Hamels and Utley in particular, probably has some truth to it).

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            3. All kidding aside, the incident highlights the main reason that he is likely untradeable . I think it’s reasonably clear that the Phillies would have traded him, even paying much of his salary, if they had received any kind of decent offer at all.

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            4. If Papelbon played in the NFL maybe they could release him from his contract. Papelbon burned his bridges in Boston even after being on a WS winning team and is doing it again.

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    3. Lets see who the core is that he is referring to,
      Utley? – seems to me he is holding his own
      Rollins? – ditto from Utley
      Chooch? – he is average, but outstanding still with the pitchers and plate defense.
      Cliff Lee – yes he was over extended in May games and at his age broke down
      and finally Ryan Howard? – now that may be the one in question.

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        1. Utley’s numbers have gone down but he has hit into some hard outs lately. Things have a way of evening themselves out.

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          1. Didn’t realize Utley’s numbers since June 1st:
            249/.323/.357, .680 OPS, 7 HRs, 371 PAs.

            Typically he starts hot in April and May months, but hopefully this doesn’t indicate what the future will be.

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      2. Second half splits for Utley and Rollins are not good. Yes they are breaking down.

        Ruiz – Hard to say, still good with the pitchers.

        Lee – Yeah, I think we can say he is done. I don’t expect much from him next year.

        Howard – Been done for some time.

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  13. JP Crawford and Luis Garcia winning Paul Owens awards this year.
    Cngrats to both of them.
    Mildly surprise that Luis Garcia got the pitchers award, but there were not many viabl;e candidates, since players like Biddle, Sverino, Pettibone, Watson. Morgan were either on the injured shelf or under performaing.
    Nola, I assume, did not qualify due to SSS.

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    2. It baffles me how Luis Garcia can dominate AAA so much and then get destroyed up in MLB. Maybe a Sports Psychiatrist can help him to make the leap like Ken Giles did.

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      1. Rick Bottalico mentioned it last night. He says he needs to get the ‘snarl’ that Giles has.
        Once you are on the mound…you are the guy
        He said he is a very friendly guy and likable.
        But you have to have a different perspective and attitude on the mound.
        I guess it is confidence.

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        1. Thanks for the answer and I hope that they can find a way to succeed at the MLB level. If they can get Garcia corrected then the Phillies could have a truly shutdown bullpen.

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  14. Thoughts on Cesar Jimenez?

    Over the last two season with the Phillies:

    31G, 30.2IP, 2.09ERA, 15BB, 18K, 23H

    He allows a lot of baserunners but he works well in jams. The story has always been his command but in Lehigh Valley and Philly he has pitched extremely well.

    1.45 ERA (38 Games) in AAA this year, 0.00 ERA (12 Games) in MLB this year.

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    1. Almost a 4.5 BB/9 is pretty high for someone whose main weapon is command…

      Anyways, he barely strikes any one out, walks people at a decently high rate, and he has fly ball tendencies. On the other hand, he does induce a significantly above-average amount of IFFB. So there’s that…

      Still, he’s a case of organizational depth and the wheels are just waiting to come flying off.

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  15. with the dearth of quality starting pitching in the high minors (and a few with career threatening arm injuries), is it worth it to try to convert a few of the successful relievers they have in the minors back to starters? If only one of them was able to make the transition, it would be a huge help. They need to find some starters somewhere! Garcia, Jimenez, etc. It’s probably a reach, but there’s not much room in the bullpen and these guys have good arms…

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    1. Most of our ‘pen pieces only have two viable pitches, which is why they’re in the ‘pen. You need at least 3 to make it as even a back-end starter, even if the third is below-average. You need that to keep hitters honest the second or third time through the lineup. The two you mentioned aren’t even particularly good bullpen pitchers.

      But Brad Lincoln is sort of in that boat, albeit sort of out of necessity. Your other options are put Ethan Martin back in that situation and… what, De Fratus MAYBE? Pitchers always go to the ‘pen for a reason and we all know that reason for the Phillies is not depth of SP (anymore. Remember the glorious days of KK being a long man?).

      Consider it this way; Papelbon, for as annoying as he is, is one of the best RP of this generation (arguably second to only Mo). He became a closer because he failed miserably as a starter. Ditto Ryan Madson. Two pitchers who had plus fastballs and plus-plus secondary pitches. You need a lot to go right to succeed as a SP. We’ve just now started getting pitchers to get a couple things working at a time.

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      1. Papelbon to the rotation. I’m only about 98% kidding. I have considered it as a possibility in my head. The pro arguments: he does have three pitches he can throw for strikes, which may amount to an arsenal that could survive as a starter. You would like to get Giles into the closer role so he’s entrenched there in 2016-2017 as the club comes back into some semblance of competitiveness. The downside is he clearly embraces the closer role and who knows how his aging arm would hold up to a starter’s workload. Also a downside – Giles as a closer makes a lot more in arbitration than Giles as a setup man. Also it’s a pretty wild idea that would get a GM in trouble if it backfires completely, i.e. Pap blows out as a starter and never pitches again.

        That being said, if Pap went to Amaro tomorrow and said he’d love the chance to start in the spring, I would hope Amaro would jump at the opportunity to see what he could do, his fallback position being a still-good reliever who would likely need just a little time to re-adjust to pitching out of the pen.

        And then after considering the slim to nil possibility of this, Pap’s vesting option comes into play. He needs to close games in 2015 to vest for 2016. So unless you tell Pap on October 1 that it’s GIles’ closer’s job to lose next spring, he’s going to want to be the closer. I suppose you could renegotiate his deal to make the vesting option also vest at 180 innings or something. That’s a full year’s work and if he’s good enough as a starter to average ~5.5 IP per start, 2016 at $13M is probably not outrageous. It may not be a great value, but hoping he’s that valuable as a reliever in 2016 seems crazy with his declining stuff.

        Chances this happens? 0-0.0002%, I’d say. Two in a million. Would be fun, though, if for no other reason than it would make an interesting storyline in the spring.

        I’ll go back to my other delusions now.

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        1. Yeah, interesting idea. Although if it were going to happen it probably would have happened years ago since he’s 33 and has never thrown more than 70 innings in a season.

          I think he could have been a starter though. Contrary to what Anon said above, Papelbon never failed as a starter because he only had 3 major league starts. But he clearly took to the closer role and loves it; I saw an interview this year where he said he didn’t like dealing with having 4 off days after a bad game. I don’t know what he’d do if the team decided to just give the closer’s role to Giles, but I doubt Pap would handle it well.

          As for minor leaguers, they could try Rosin and Wright in the rotation if they wanted. Personally I think Rosin should have been given a chance to start in AAA this year. I don’t really see either guy in the team’s plans at this point though.

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          1. Yeah, I kept thinking Pap was the guy who came up in the AL East and griped about wanting to be a starter, but I think I may be thinking of Joba Chamberlain. I don’t blame guys who want to start, especially when there’s an entrenched closer on the club. There’s never been a ton of money available for pitching the eighth inning.

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        1. good point – they have to give that a try in the spring I would think. Maybe they can flip a bullpen piece for a minor league starter with some upside. Bastardo or Defratus might bring something in the offseason. Risky, but they need to find some starter options if Pettibone and Morgan can’t come back and they would seem to have some decent fall back options for middle inning arms.

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    2. I NEVER understood the logic of turning a good refief pitcher into a starter, its not imo smart, just like taking a good third basemen and moving him to the outfield, it weakens two position.

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      1. Some teams are forced to do it…the Braves had to do it with Smoltz (starter to reliever one year and then back to starter afterwards) and Chipper from all-star third baseman to LF.

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  16. I think they are going to go after a SP of the Brandon McCarthy/Gavin Floyd/? variety. Lester, if I am not mistaken does not qualify for a QO as he was traded, but Shields and Scherzer will. I think the Phils do not give up a draft pick. Think=Hope! I don’t think Lester comes here even if they go after him. But, I believe they will spend money on a SP and also go very hard for OF Tomas. The FA OFs are a dismal bunch aside from Cruz.

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  17. David Murphy, CSN, on Ben Revere:
    “No hitter in the major leagues has seen a higher percentage of fastballs than Revere. Of the pitches he has seen, 68.4 percent are fastballs, a figure that is 2 points higher than the next person on the list (Dee Gordon, who has seen them in 66.3 percent of plate appearances). Revere’s walk rate on the season is 2.2 percent, the lowest in the National League. Gordon’s 5.2 percent rate is 12th-lowest. Billy Hamilton, who has seen the fourth-most fastballs, has the 11th-lowest walk rate. These guys aren’t getting pounded with fastballs because they are putting themselves in hitter’s counts, they are doing so because their power does not compel pitchers to throw them anything else.”

    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20140911_Do_the_Phillies_math.html#ysWrhjcOjdGRo6eS.99

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    1. Contrary to others, I really think Asche will develop into a 300 hitter with experience. I see growth taking place in him. Last night’s walk off homer off a lefty is the latest example. Everyone comments on how hard he works and I think he’ll continue to improve. He made a great play at 3rd last night too as he improves there as well. Unfortunately though I don’t see his bat as playing well enough for lf.

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      1. Asche is very interesting and his situation is made more interesting by the play and appearance of Maikel Franco. So here’s my take on the situation.

        I think Maikel Franco has the ability to be a special player. The comp I’ve used in the past is Aramis Ramirez and still think that’s pretty good, although I think that Franco may have more power, should be a better fielder (if he doesn’t eat his way out of the position), but won’t have has good of a hit tool. Put it this way, his ceiling is actually a little higher than Ramirez, but it’s not likely that he’s going to have as good of career as Ramirez. That said, when he’s ready, he needs to play at third. I’d definitely start him at AAA next year for him to finish his development as a hitter and to delay the FA clock a little bit. I think Franco is a hard worker and I’d encourage him to take his strength and conditioning to another level this winter – of all players on the Phillies, I think such a program will have the biggest effect on him and Crawford (and Crawford is definitely planning on doing that – and we should be THRILLED to hear that)

        Asche is a nice player. If he were the third baseman of the future, I still believe he has the ability to become an above average player at the position. He’ s a hard worker, his fielding has improved and should continue to improve. He’s still learning as a hitter and has a very short and quiet stroke and has enough power to hit between 17-25 homers a year at his peak, but I don’t ever see him as a .300 hitter because he strikes out too much – but .280-.285 is a real possibility. Ultimately, however, I think his OBP and slugging percentage will, along with his fielding, will determine his outcome, not whether or not he can hit .300. He should be given another month to two months next year to see how he comes along. In the meantime, the team should be doing whatever it can to diversify his talents, including playing the outfield. I know his excursion at second didn’t work in the GCL, but, what the hell, I’d try it again if the team thinks there’s any chance of that working. I’m all for making Cody Asche another Ben Zobrist. Why not?

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        1. Zobrist came up through the minors mostly as a shortstop. We can’t assume that Asche can play the super-utility role just because it would be nice. He tried and failed at 2B and we know he doesn’t have great range at 3B. I think he’s a guy who might be able to play all the corners, but the up the middle positions are probably off limits to him.

          If they get him reps at other positions in the spring, and occasionally play him in the OF next year, that would be okay. I think they should mostly stick with him at 3B while Franco is in the minors though. That way he can concentrate on improving his offense and, as a result, his trade value.

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          1. It’s very true the Asche cannot become a utility player just because it would be ultra convenient for him to assume that role. I agree that it’s quite possible and perhaps highly probable that he doesn’t have the skill set to do that. It’s nice to dream, however.

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  19. And Franco scores on a ball to the fence from 1B and if you see the replay he has to slow down before he gets to 2B to make sure its not caught. Even with him slowing down (almost to a stop) he scores relatively easily. Again people are making his speed out to be almost Ryan Howard slow when his speed is actually average.

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    1. I didn’t read the article but if you pick up 45 million of that contract some team would take him in American league.

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      1. Sorry I did not see your post but I agree with you in the dollar amount. Moving Ryan would open spots for the younger players maybe allowing Utley to move to 1B. This would allow Galvis and Hernandez fight for the starting job.

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      2. Even if they eat $50 Million to move him, it still does not get you anything in return. Not that I would disagree with doing it, but being tradable does not equal trade value. His value is less than what we got for Carmona Hernandez.

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