Report Card, Outfield, Lehigh Valley, Reading and Clearwater

Other Stuff

A look at outfielders at the upper portion of the organization, with Lakewood, Williamsport and GCL up next.  A reminder that grading is based on what expectations I had for each player entering the season and they are not graded against each other.  Conceptually, an “A” far exceeds expectations, “B” exceeds expectations, “C” meets expectations, “D” is below expectations and “F” just sucks.

Lehigh Valley

Leandro Castro, 25, Signed as a free agent in 2007; .259/.307/.367 in 425AB’s; 6HR 48RBI; 7/14SB; 6%bb/15%k rates; .209 vs. LHP; .280 vs. RHP; .146 over last month; 109 games in the OF with 6 errors (.978); 10 OF assists; Grade: C; 2015: Another organization; Castro was re-signed by the Phils as a 7th year minor league free agent this year and was “decent” but far from consistently good (Note, avg last 30 days). He has improved his plate discipline through the years, but if the Phils didn’t call him up this year, he is best to sign on as a free agent with another organization.  Most of his numbers went down (although marginally) from 2013 to 2014.

Tony Gwynn Jr., 31, Signed as a free agent in 2014; .290/.383/.362 in 69 AB’s for Lehigh Valley; 1HR 7RBI; 2/6 SB; 14%bb/15%k rates.  Grade: C; 2015: Could be back in a similar role to 2014 floating between Philly and LV, but I suspect he will be elsewhere.  Gwynn was awful with the stick for the Phillies but produced well in limited AB’s with the ‘Pigs.  Whether he will be back or not is dependant on where Gwynn believes he can accrue the most ML time next year.

Cameron Perkins, Soon to be 24, Phils 6th round pick in 2013; .271/.326/.384 in 451 AB’s between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 5HR 51RBI; 8/14 SB; 7%bb/16%k rates; For Lehigh Valley: .216/.259/.298; 2HR 17RBI; 5%bb/18%k rates; .174 vs. LHP; .231 vs. RHP; .221 over last month; 115 games in the OF without an error (10 OF assists); Grade: C+; 2015: Lehigh Valley.  I struggled with Perkins grade. He was far better than I expected him to be for Reading and far worse in Lehigh Valley, so overall things evened out.  I think his hitting for average will come around but without much power, there is a likelihood that we may have another Steve Susdorf on our hands.  Susdorf, (who by the way is a great guy), just didnt have the one additional tool to take the next step. I hope Perkins proves me wrong.

Reading

Aaron Altherr, 23, Phils 9th round pick in 2009; .237/.292/.400 in 477 AB’s; 14HR 59RBI; 13/19 SB; 6%BB/23%K rates; .247 vs. LHP; .231 vs. RHP; .216 over last month; .211 with RISP; 126 games in the OF with 7 errors (.978); 13 OF assists; Grade: C; 2105: Lehigh Valley; When you watch Altherr play, he looks like a ball player but it doesn’t always translate.  His 2014 was ok, hit for some power, showed some speed but went through periods with very little production.  With 2 options left, having already played in the Fall League and 450+ AA plate appearances, I would challenge him in Allentown next year.

Zach Collier, 24, Phils 1st round pick in 2008; .240/.318/.408 in 267 AB’s; 9HR 29RBI; 5/12 SB; 8%bb/28%k rates; .192 vs. LHP; .259 vs. RHP; .260 over last 30 days; .186 with RISP; 82 games in the OF with 2 errors (.994); 1 OF assist; Grade: C-; 2015: Elsewhere; Collier was removed from the 40 man roster and designated for assignment mid-season after an awful first half, and after he was not picked up by any other team re-assigned back to Reading where he was more productive in the second half.  So, with that said, Collier now has close to 800 AA AB’s and an average sitting at .229, doesn’t hit consistently for power and was thrown out more times than he successfully stole bases this year.  Time to move on.

Kelly Dugan, Soon to be 24, Phils 2nd round pick in 2009; .296/.383/.435 in 253 AB’s; 5HR 34RBI’s; 10%bb/20%k rates; .281 vs. LHP; .306 vs. RHP; .338 over last month; .313 with RISP; 64 games in the OF with 3 errors (.976); Grade: B-; 2015: Lehigh Valley; Dugan’s biggest issue has been simply staying on the field.  If you extrapolate his year over a full season, the grade goes up drastically, but missing 200+ AB’s makes passing judgment more difficult.  He is ready for AAA pitching, has two options left, and if he stays on track is likely on the 2016 Phils roster.

Peter Lavin, 26, Phils 20th round pick in 2011; .287/.332/.441 in 460 AB’s between Clearwater and Reading; 6%BB/14% k rates; .227 vs. LHP; .307 vs. RHP; .325 over last month; 11HR 49RBI; 11/18SB; .283/.322/.434 in 251 AB’s with Reading; 110 games in the OF with 5 errors (.982); 21 OF assists; Grade: A-; 2015: Lehigh Valley; After an awful 2013, during which he hit .224 in 200+ AB’s in CLearwater and missed significant time with an injury, Lavin came back very strong this year, earning a quick promotion out of CLearwater and performing in consistent solid fashion in Reading.  His 21 OF assists led the organization by a wide margin.  Already at 26, Lavin’s age is working against him.

Clearwater

Brian Pointer, 22, Phils 28th round pick in 2010; .246/.336/.419 in 415 AB’s; 15HR 53RBI; 16/24 SB; 11%BB/28%k rates; .283 vs. LHP; .231 vs. RHP; .264 over last month; .284 with RISP; 115 games in the OF with 2 errors (.992); 13 OF assists; Grade: B-; 2015: Reading; After a first half of the season during which he hit .214, Pointer came on to hit .272 during the second half, with power, run producing ability and speed, while playing a solid OF.  About to fall off my personal prospect chart after a sub par 2013 and a poor first half, Pointer has re-established himself as someone to watch closely.

Roman Quinn, 21, Phils 2nd round pick in 2011; .257/.343/.370 in 327 AB’s; 7HR 36RBI; 32/44SB; 10%bb/22%k rates; .327 vs. LHP; .227 vs. RHP; .260 over last month; .317 with RISP; 69 games in the OF with 6 errors (.967); 3 OF assists; 17 games at SS with 3 errors (.954); Grade: B+; 2015: Reading; Quinn came back earlier and stronger than I expected and had a very good year.  He made it clear through his 32 SB’s that he was fully healed and became significantly more comfortable at the plate when moving back to his natural position in the OF.  Of note as well is the impressive walk rate.

Herlis Rodriguez, 20, SIgned as a free agent in 2011; .260/.305/.338 in 77 AB’s between Williamsport, Lakewood and Clearwater. 0HR 5RBI; 1SB; 6%bb/16%k rates; Grade: C+; 2015: Lakewood; Rodriguez was placed in Clearwater for the last several weeks of the season simply because they needed to fill a OF roster spot, but he impressed with multi hit games in 5 of the last 6 games for the Threshers.  Until that time, Rodriguez had played sparingly, wherever he has.  At just 20, he may have earned himself some regular AB’s in Lakewood next year.

Brandon Short, 26, Signed as a free agent in 2014; .215/.270/.347 in 251 AB’s; 4HR 32RBI; 4/8SB; 7%bb/20%k rates; .243 vs. LHP; .203 vs. RHP; .237 over last month; .277 with RISP; 51 games in the OF with 4 errors(.952); 1 OF assist; Grade: D; 2015: Out of Phils organization.  Short was a combination of poor and injured fro all of 2014.

 

32 thoughts on “Report Card, Outfield, Lehigh Valley, Reading and Clearwater”

  1. Cameron Perkins’ peripherals , lefty vs righties at LHV, is puzzling. I would think vs lefties his stats would be better then what he is showing. I hope he makes the adjustment next season at LHV and hits the way he expects himself to hit.

    Like

    1. I’m encouraged by his last week or so. It’s a shame the season ended just as he seemed to have figured some things out.

      Like

    1. What’s is sad is prospects don’t appear out of thin air! Singleton, cozart, d’arnaud, happ, gose, may, Santana, villar. Those trades took a toll

      Like

      2. Anonymous out of all these guys, who would be helping us now Cosart yes, Gose, happ, viillar aren’t anything special. very replaceable, the jury is out on singleton, Santana, may and d’arnaud. Still waiting for that great star that we traded away. I love cosart but if he doesn’t stop walking guys he isn’t going to be a great starter.

        Like

        1. Roc com, I never said they were stars, they are awfully hard to come by but they are major league players all with a chance to be avg with time. My point was simply when you trade away young prospects that have since become big league players your system is going to take a hit. Constantly saying there is no talent at the upper levels, while dismissing the facts is unfair

          Like

    2. B- was a little harsh. Hit 15 jacks with 16 sb’s and 13 outfield assists !! hit 284 with runners in scoring position and played really good defense only 2 errors for entire season, still only 22 yrs old sound like an A- or B+ to me. Tough grading scale

      Like

      2. Since the grades are defined relative to expectations, they’re pretty subjective.

        My expectation for Pointer was that he would hit worse than he did last year (when he was repeating A ball), and especially that his strikeout rate would worsen. Instead his strikeout rate barely increased, and his hitting improved greatly.

        I still don’t see him as a prospect, but I’d say he significantly exceeded my expectations.

        Like

  4. Personally I would give Quinn an A. After his injury, people were talking about his taking a year to regain his speed, if ever. Some suggested he might be done as a prospect. Instead, he came back faster than anyone expected, and essentially replicated his performance from last year at a higher level.

    He could quite reasonably start at AA next year, which means his developmental trajectory is right on track despite an injury that normally takes a year to recover from!

    Like

    1. I agree on Quinn. He showed that he will work hard to overcome adversity and has that Plus speed. Showed he can hit and play CF. We have reason to project continued improvement for him. Also, I am looking forward to Perkins at LV next year to see if he continues to adapt. If we get Tomas and Dugan can ever get healthy, we have some OF prospects to dream about.

      Like

  5. Quinn is the one guy on this list that I am excited about right now. If he doesn’t bounce back the way he did, our already thin upper level OF prospect list gets even thinner. Pointer is a guy to keep an eye on, but doesn’t exactly jump off the page. Dugan health issues continue to delay his progress and create question marks about his future. Perkins could be a guy who turns the corner next year. He just started getting hot at AAA so hopefully adjustments are being made. I wish he had a little more pop in his bat though. If Altherr was more consistent I think he would have been a September call up. He has some tools at his disposal he just needs to use them on a regular basis to be a legit prospect.

    Like

    1. Dugan needs to get ABs in the AFL and should play winter ball too. He should focus on getting stronger as well. I actually don’t think he’s that far off from being a major leaguer, which is something I don’t say very often about outfielders who are doing okay but not great in Reading, but I think Dugan’s going to be quite a hitter when he gets it all together.

      Like

    2. Dugan has played in 305 games the last three years, while Quinn has played in 221. I’m not sure how one can be labeled injury prone at this point and not the other.

      Like

  6. I think you are spot on Gregg nice work. The one thing I’ll say about SSS is that when its negative you can always say there is time for that to turn in the right direction. No one ever talks about large sample size meaning once you get to 800-1000 PA’s you are pretty much what you are going to be and when I look at the list above I only see one major league regular.

    Are there outliers sure and let’s hope a few more prove to be just that.

    Like

    1. I assume you mean Quinn in terms of future major leaguer regulars. I’d add Dugan, though I still have my doubts about whether he’ll be more than a second division regular.

      The rest are either long shots or potential bench players or filler, with Pointer probably the long shot most likely to pay off. (Altherr more likely to have SOME major league role, but Pointer more likely to break out and become a regular. Not very likely, but … less unlikely, maybe?)

      I do think for minor league players the normal tendency to assume that, after a large enough sample, “you are pretty much what you are going to be,” is less likely to be accurate than for a major league player.

      Like

      1. I agree that Quinn and Dugan are the only two outfielders at AAA and AA that show they can be major leaguers. Quinn needs to have a good year in Reading , as does Pointer to be considered major league talent. Herlis needs a lot more opportunity. I hope he gets it at Clearwater as a starter.

        Like

  7. To me the biggest disappointment on the list is Altherr. I don’t agree on starting him at LHV. I’d make him earn his way there which he hasn’t done yet. Most of us have him pretty high on our prospect list but I think its time to lower him. On the other hand, I think we all had Pointer off the list and he pushed his way back on. A Reading OF with Altherr, Pointer, and Quinn would be interesting. AAA OF could be Perkins, Lavin, and a minor league free agent signing.

    Like

    1. “A Reading OF with Altherr, Pointer, and Quinn would be interesting. AAA OF could be Perkins, Lavin, and a minor league free agent signing.”

      Kelly Dugan has to fit into one of these two outfields – presumably at AAA, instead of the FA signing.

      Like

  8. For what it’s worth, Lars Davis has taken an assistant coaching job at the University of Florida. He was a organizational filler but he did a nice job between Reading and Lehigh Valley this year. Best of luck to him.

    Like

    2. Doesn’t necessarily mean anything – he could just be doing it for the offseason. Admittedly, I don’t know if he was a FA after season’s end or if he’s retiring (I’m about to look that up on Twitter)

      Ok, it says on their Twitter account (https://twitter.com/GatorZoneBB) that he’s just a volunteer assistant. I don’t think he’s retired just yet, though I could be wrong. Either way, I wish him all the best.

      Like

      1. Usually volunteer assistant baseball coaches are the equivalent to graduate assistants on college football or basketball teams. It’s a good way to get your feet wet as a coach while getting your education.

        Like

  9. Great blog here! Also your site loads up fast! What web host are you the usage
    of? Can I get your affiliate hyperlink for your host?
    I wish my website loaded up as fast as yours lol

    Like

  10. Piece of writing writing is also a excitement, if youu be acquainted with then you
    can write otherwise it is complex to write.

    Like

  11. Picking the right location can literally mean the difference between being wildly successful and failing miserably.

    Home Depot’s largest store is located in Anaheim, California.
    If you regularly do business with multiple people
    within a department, trying to come up with multiple gift ideas can be downright perplexing.

    Like

Comments are closed.