General Discussion – Week of 4-21-2014 – Bleary-Eyed Edition

Weekly Discussion

So it’s one of those weeks where the Phillies have a four-game set on the West Coast, and none of them are day games. Sleep is overrated, folks.

Discuss.

22 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 4-21-2014 – Bleary-Eyed Edition”

  1. Sleep is not over-rated when you are watching the Phillies. In fact, there is a good chance if you are watching, that they will put you to sleep!

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  2. there is a player or coach coaching first for the fightins with the last name abad who is this guy?

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  4. It’s early – SSS. And the conclusions that flow from this fact are debatable. But the fact is, the veterans have played great. The rest of the team, not so much. By WAR, though traditional evaluation would show the same thing:

    Lee/Utley/Howard/Rollins/Ruiz: 4.5 WAR
    Under 30 players: – 1.9 WAR
    Everyone else: -0.2 WAR

    The young guys are almost 2 wins below replacement. Yes, SSS, but still pretty bad.

    Now, what are the implications of that?

    (1) The organization has done a very poor job in the past 3 years of filling holes in the lineup/rotation.

    (2) The organization has done a poor job of developing young talent. (How much of this is luck, how much the consequence of earlier success, how much drafting, how much lowish spending, and how much development, is debatable.)

    (3) A TRUE fire sale (which would include Utley and Lee) would result in a 100-120 loss team.

    Some will dispute the last point, but I don’t see how you can do so reasonably.

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    1. Concerning the youngsters…Ruben responded yesterday:
      “Kids, man,” Amaro said. “It takes some time to adjust. Children . . . Kids. You have to go through some growing pains with the kiddies. Everybody wants everybody to be an All-Star right away. It’s not happening.” Amaro’s answer actually came in response to also struggling third baseman. Maikel Franco, the organization’s top hitting prospect, entered yesterday hitting .153 with two extra-base hits, five walks and 15 strikeouts in 16 games with Triple A Lehigh Valley this season.

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    2. I don’t dispute it I agree and while it would sadden me to no end to see one or both of those two go it might be necessary depending on return. For Lee you need at least one bona fide young star and a second high upside guy.

      For Utley I don’t think you can expect much. I thought this team had the pieces to take the 2nd wild card but that was assuming Brown would have near the OPS he had last year and Asche would put up 15 HRS and 25+ doubles.

      Asche at least has some track record of being a slow starter but thus far the swing has been atrocious. He seems to be out front and off balance rolling over on everything.

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      1. If we could get that return for Lee, I agree we should trade him. i don’t think we can.

        I do think the kids will be better than they have been. They almost have to be. But it’s not too early to be at least a little concerned.

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        1. There are few landing spots but you have to consider the Cardinals and Dodgers, possibly the Tigers and the Yankees. He is attractive for a number of reasons. 2 Years left on his deal he doesn’t break down and is a big game pitcher.

          Negatives are limited no trade rights so he probably won’t agree to go to just any team. I think you could get the most out of the Dodgers given their win it now at all cost mentality. The Cardinals have the deeper system I believe but they would hold leverage. I think he would love to go there and they know it.

          But again I still hold out hope this line-up can get it going and the Nats, Brewers and Giants implode.

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      2. Too bad one of my potential partners for Cliff Lee is having an abysmal season in the Arizona Diamondbacks.

        I’m a big Braden Shipley fan, and the Diamondbacks also can trade the 70th and 71st picks in the upcoming draft as they’re competitive balance picks (one was acquired from SD, the other is their own). Archie Bradley is untouchable, but something along the lines of Shipley, Chris Owings, one of those picks and a long-shot prospect would have been ok by me. Chris Owings then takes over for Rollins.

        But since Owings made the roster and is playing most games he’s probably not being moved either.

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    3. The biggest disappointment for me is Ben Revere. I really thought he’d be able to play a plus CF to compensate for the lack of power and walks. It looks like he’s slightly below average to average out there, which isn’t enough to carry hit bat. Now we’ve got two holes to fill in the OF and not a whole lot of upper level talent in the minors at that position.

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      1. Revere may have a tendency to get ‘going’ later after April.
        Last year he did just that.
        I personally, think Ruben has successfully cloned Delmon Young…for at the plate Marlon Byrd and his 30% K rate are giving me visions of DY2013.
        Marlon does play a better field for sure and that gives me some measure of hope.

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  5. Dom Brown …

    Defensively, if you buy the metrics, he’s the same place he was last year – not horrible, but bad enough to make him only an average regular even if he hits as well as he did last season.

    Offensively, he’s disappointed so far this season. Breaking down his performance, though, he’s a little better in most hitting metrics – BB rate, K rate, BABIP – but a lot worse in one – he’s not hitting for power at all. Maybe I’m just restating the obvious, but I think that is at least SOME grounds for optimism – he’s not going to end the season with a sub .100 ISO.

    He’s hitting the ball a lot more on the ground (one of the reasons, but not the main one, for his power outage). Is that the result of a change in approach, or a consequence of the fact that pitchers have been pitching him more low and outside?

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    1. Just going by my eyes, I think a lot of it has to do with how he’s being pitched. It seems like he sees almost nothing on the inside part of the plate, so it’s up to him do something with those pitches on the outer half if he knows they’re coming. Early on it seemed like he was hitting a lot of singles the other way, and lately he’s been rolling those pitches over. It was nice to see him drive a pitch outside for the game winning RBI last night, even if the pitch was sort of a mistake by the pitcher.

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  6. Byrd, OTOH, might be done …

    I was kind of meh on the signing – not hating it as much as some people did, but certainly not loving it either. I expected diminished but decent hitting, and solid or better defense. We’ve gotten the latter, but not the former.

    Hindsight is 20-20, but in retrospect his unsustainable power surge last season masked a three (now 4) year trend of increased K%.

    There just isn’t an internal option right now. If it were up to me, though, I’d platoon him with Gwynn.

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  7. Hope you guys don’t mind my ramblings about the team’s outfielders … IMO their biggest weakness so far.

    It’s funny how much difference one game can make this early in the season. Revere’s hitting all of the sudden looks … not good, but okay. Hitting .300.

    What’s interesting is defense. All the usual cautions about defensive metrics apply. But what’s interesting is that, while overall he’s about where he was last season – just a tad below average – his range is (per the metrics) much improved. Whereas 2 errors (already equaling his 2013 total) mean a much worse error rate, canceling out the better range.

    Does this mean anything? Probably not.

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  8. Errors by outfielders, I look at a lot of guys who misplay fly balls and get no errors so its really imo a stat that is hard to gauge Amaro inability to get a better outfield defense and his bullpen, plus bad contracts is really a killer, I am still amaze he isn’t even on the hot seat,

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    1. I’d play, LF to RF, Revere Gwynn and Brown vs RHP and Ruf, Mayberry, and Byrd vs LHP.

      Lineup vs LHP – Rollins Byrd Utley Ruiz Howard Ruf Asche Mayberry

      Lineup vs RHP – Revere Rollins Utley Ruiz Howard Brown Asche Gwynn

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  9. I loved the AJ pickup but Nieves has turned into a very very late bloomer the last few years. May I sat it is nice to watch a game with the sound .

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