General Discussion – Week of 4-14-2014 – Tony Gwynn vs. Ben Revere Edition

Weekly Discussion

Here’s your general discussion for all things Phillies. I want to talk about center field.

Ben Revere has been out of the lineup for four straight games now, dating back to the day after he made this remarkable catch against Milwaukee on Thursday. Tony Gwynn Jr. Remains in the lineup for tonight’s game. Seems like either Ryne’s rolling with the hot bat right now, or Revere’s more dinged up than the club’s letting on. So who’s the better choice, anyway?

I think Revere will hit more than Gwynn in the long run, and he steals more bases and does so at a better rate. Gwynn appears to have a defensive advantage for his career, though we have no good data on that from last year and this year. Let’s see some details, all stats per FanGraphs:

Gwynn’s WRC+ for his last 3 big league years averaged 83, but he played at AAA in 2013 and managed a 113. That’s hard to qualify as he was a 30-year old in AAA. Revere WRC+ average between 2011-2013 was also 83, though he’s improved each year, peaking at 92 last season. Neither man hits for much power, and especially for homeruns. Gwynn has 7 in his big league career, to Revere’s continued goose egg. Gwynn hold a career ISO edge at .074 to Revere’s .045. Weak. Literally. I bet they’re both way stronger than me, though, so who am I to criticize. On the bases, Gwynn stole 14 and was caught nine times in 2013, 17/7 the year before. Neither rate is a value add. Revere, on the other hand, was 22/30 last year, which is close to being a good rate, around 73%, and was 40/49 in the bigs in 2012, a very nice 82%.

Let’s talk about the D. Gwynn averaged 15 Defensive Runs Saved from 2009-2011, though he tailed off to +2 in 2012 and was in MiLB all year last year, so we don’t have good defensive stats. Revere is even +/- DRS in the OF for his big league career. Revere may make a spectacular, rib crushing grab now and again, but Gwynn seems to have been an overall better defender than Revere. Hard to say without a larger and more recent sample from Gwynn.

So overall, it may be a toss-up as to who helps the club win in April 2014. Gwynn’s defense has been historically more steady, though his aging body may have slowed him down some the last few years. Revere’s bat and legs are likely to give you more than Gwynn in the long run. In my opinion, Revere needs to be on the field for his continued development as a big leaguer this year and beyond. If his ribs can take it, he’d be in my lineup tonight and going forward. Your thoughts?

Discuss.

46 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 4-14-2014 – Tony Gwynn vs. Ben Revere Edition”

  1. Honestly, Ben’s biggest issue is simply tracking balls and doing nutty things in the outfield. Perhaps a combination of sitting on the bench and taking extra practice is more beneficial than playing for a few days. In any event, Sandberg wants to win – I don’t see much harm in him riding the hot hand right now – it helps keep Gwynn sharp anyway. If it goes much longer, it might be an issue, however.

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    1. You and Brad both said it- Gwynn is hot right now. He’s hitting .350 and he’s 5 for his last 10, so I think he’ll be the CF until he cools off, which will probably happen soon.

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    2. The thing about Revere is he has the potential to be a good center fielder. He makes some odd choices out there but its not like the last couple years of Brown where he looks completely hopeless. He’s still only 25 so there’s a possibility he couldn’t tighten things up defensively.

      That catch though was one of the best if not the best catch I’ve even seen.

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      2. I wonder if Gary Maddox worked with revere at all this spring. I know they said he improved his arm, but still not a great fielder,

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  4. J.P. Crawford ’13 LWD 14 games 53AB .208AVG 0HR .300OBP .226SLG .526OPS
    J.P. Crawford ’14 LWD 09 games 39AB .282AVG 1HR .349OBP .410SLG .759OPS

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  5. When do the Phils call up Giles to the big club. Watching Rosenberg and Diekman tonight was brutal.

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    2. Yeah, we all want to see Giles, but I’m not writing off Diekman. He has filthy stuff and just struggled with control and hung a breaking pitch tonight. Rosenberg is fine, but he can’t “live” up in the zone. He needs to work down and only occasionally throw up in the zone to change the eye level. He has more than sufficient ability to be a solid 7th inning guy.

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  6. If Giles, and this remains a big if, continues to consistently throw strikes and dominate AA the way he has in the first two weeks, the Phils will have to consider him for a key bullpen role sooner rather than later. His stuff will get hitters out anywhere, on any planet, if he can throw strikes. It’s way too early in my opinion, but if this continues, look out.

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    1. I was wondering about giles myself. I think you have to give him more time, at least a month .or a little less, he hasn’t pitch a lot. but a interesting guy with that fastball.

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  7. I’m not as big a Revere skeptic as some people around here. I wince when I see people get on him for a couple errors in a few games, when his error rate has never been a problem previously, and I think his arm isn’t a big problem.

    But Revere is the kind of player who, because of his complete lack of power, has to do EVERYTHING else right to be a solid regular. And it’s certainly true that, as a Phillie, despite his speed, his range in center field has been limited by poor route running.

    The very fact that we can have a discussion about whether to start him or a player like Gwynn is … concerning.

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    1. This is definitely the case and we quickly forget all the mistakes Vic used to make during games when he was first given the starting job. Having said that Shane turned out to have power I don’t think many saw coming.

      So while I’ll like Ben I don’t think I want to hitch my wagon to him long term. As Brad states above his WRC+ has never been above 100 which I would expect out of my lead off hitter.

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  8. One other curious thing is that some of the people most skeptical about Revere are also some of the strongest advocates of “playing the kids.” If you’re going to “play the kids” you need to be patient – especially the AAAA/bench types that the Phillies could conceivably give spots to. If you’re not willing to show patient to Revere … I’d hate to see ther reaction to (say) Hernandez as a regular.

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  9. The offense again was off track last night they could have really got into Santana’s pitch count last night and they didn’t. Roberto was having to work really hard to keep that game where it was I think he was 117 pitches in the 6th with us down a run.

    Howard is to easy of an out right now to be hitting 4. Ryne at some point has to go with Marlon there.

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    1. The guy with the .355 OBP is too easy of an out, so you want to replace him with a guy with a .302 OBP?

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  11. So … the Phillies, 13 games in.

    Despite my long term pessimism about the franchise, I was not as pessimistic for this season as the consensus. I thought they would be about a .500 team, assuming no moves at the deadline. Of course that could be regarded in one sense as the ultimate in pessimism, not contending but not bad enough to be sellers at the deadline.

    I haven’t changed my prediction so far, but to break things down:

    Hitting – they are off to a good start, above league average by both analytic and traditional metrics. There are some warning signs. The K rate is high, and, while the BB rate is also high, the swing data doesn’t really support the BB rate – that is, there’s going to be some regression in the BB rate. I do think though that they’ll be better than last year – partly what appears to be better health, mainly addition by subtraction. And, while of course Utley can’t keep it up at his current rate, I think we’ve seen enough to project a real come back season from him.

    Starting pitching – not bad considering the injury to Hamels and Lee’s slow start. The biggest problem so far has been that the starters have tended to come out early, putting more pressure on the relievers. With Hamels returning and Lee pitching more to form (he will), this looks like a strength – certainly above league average.

    Relievers – obviously the big problem so far. It will get better, if for no other reason than reversion to the mean, but maybe not much better.

    Even I, a strong skeptic of the “tear down” strategy, would like to see them active sellers at the deadline. Will they be? As I’ve argued in the past, I believe they are well aware of the need to rebuild, and are doing so in the way that all but the poorest franchises have traditionally done so. (That does not mean they are executing their plan well; long term problems with talent evaluation and development remain.) But obviously I could be wrong, and, even if I am right, a .500 record at the deadline may tempt them to stand pat. I am fairly confident that they won’t be buyers.

    Of course if they do make moves at the deadline, the strongest advocates of making such moves will turn on them viciously, as the return will be much less than many imagine. Someone yesterday posited a Lee trade for multiple top prospects. If they get a prospect in the 50 to 100 range and a couple of lottery tickets they will be doing VERY well.

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    1. LarryM…hit the nail on the head with the starters….averaging 5 and 2/3 innings per start will deplete the bullpen very quickly. If this continues, the GM may have to employ a LHV-Philly shuttle just to keep the bullpen arms from falling off.
      Ruben did mention he is not averse to bringing up Giles, if he continues at his current pace in Reading.

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  12. I came into the season with a prediction they would take the last WC steeped in the rotation of Hamels, Lee and Burnett and the turn around in the BP from last year. 13 Games not with standing hasn’t convinced me to change my mind.

    It wouldn’t take much however for me to come off that opinion. I see some problems early on that may be symptomatic of Joyner’s departure. I don’t think Revere sees enough pitches and nor does Asche. I think Howard in the 4 hole is a huge problem for this club and unnecessary with Byrd. And Brown seems to be off despite his high average.

    No matter where they are record wise at the trade deadline its hard to imagine them not making a big trade or two. With Scherzer’s impending FA lurking I could see them making a splash for someone of his ilk (not in a trade but in the offseason) You will also have big James Shields available.

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    1. Well you can say what you want but if Howard had continued his numbers his contract would look really good right now. At the time I don’t think there were many people against it….now ofcourse everybody knew that would turn out bad.
      There are plenty of other teams that have to deal with contracts gone bad not just the Amaro. How about Teixerra in New York or Pujols in LA.

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      1. If he continued WHAT numbers? He was already in decline when the contract was signed (in 2010). Even if he had somehow continued his 2010 numbers throughout the contract, it would have been a bad contract.

        More to the point,, why should anyone have expected any player – especially someone with his body type – not to suffer decline in his mid to late 30s?

        Analytically inclined people – myself included – were unanimously and vociferously against the contract from the start. I certainly knew it would turn out badly. THIS badly? No, but that’s hardly a defense of the contract. Partly because the contract was bad even given the most favorable assumptions, partly because it was signed 2 years before his contract was up. And it was always POSSIBLE that it would turn out this badly – not a risk worth taking, given the low liklihood and nature of the best case scenario.

        (Yes, I realize that the contract was signed after his 2009 season, arguably his second best season. But that’s not a defense of the contract. It would have been a (slight, defensible) overpay even if one assumes that he strung together 7 more seasons like 2009 – an absurd and ridiculous assumption. EVEN THAT “defense” of the deal doesn’t work, though, because they signed him a year earlier than they had to. I’m not saying they should have waited until after the 2011 season – well, they should have, but that is partly hindsight. But they AT LEAST should have waited until after the 2010 season – even that would have shaved millions of dollars off the deal. And if not … let someone else overpay him.)

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          1. DMAR,it was predictable and we predicted it. Even before the achilles injury he was in steep decline. I guess you just think it was a lucky (or, from a fan’s perspective, unlucky) guess.

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      2. anon……IMO, Howard’s contract would look and appear to be a whole lot reasonable to the public if it were 4M less per annum…and that would have been very possible 5 years ago. The GM, like the Papelbon contract, is in too much of a rush to get what he fears he will lose. Talk about being impetuous.

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  14. BaseballBetsy tweeted earlier today “Roman Quinn batting today on intrasquad game!”.

    Did I miss something here? I was thinking he was out well into the summer? Based on the above, are we to think he may back in game action in the relatively near future? Any insights?

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  15. Phillynews ,com has story about Giles, Telling why he isn’t ready .He hasn’t faced a lot of top prospects mostly guys, who are really non prospects, so lets give him more time, is what the article is suggesting, because of his past control problems. wip was really pushing his promotion yesterday, which I thought was wrong,

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  16. When did the Phillies pick up Cavan Cohoes? I see he’s on the restricted list from the Lakewood roster. He was caught juicing and is serving a 50 game suspension. Seattle jettisoned him from a cannon. What do the Phillies see in a suspended former 9th round choice who has been terrible in his year plus. Don’t even say that they’re trying to accumulate the worst possible players in the history of minor league ball. I don’t believe that.

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    1. Because he is a 20 year old who cost them nothing, was signed for $650,000 in 2011, and here is his BA pre-draft writeup:
      Cohoes attends Germany’s Patch High School, an American high school on the Patch Barracks, so he is the rare European prospect who is also draft-eligible. A 6-foot-2, 185-pound shortstop, Cohoes is extremely raw even by European standards but gets attention for his projectable body and excellent athleticism. He’s one of the best athletes in Europe and a plus runner with an above-average arm. His hands need work but he has the speed to play center field if he can’t stick at shortstop. Scouts’ biggest question with Cohoes is his bat. He has a quick stroke, but he has trouble maintaining his swing and is raw at the plate. He has hit well against his high school competition but he hasn’t had to face Europe’s best prospects. He has a verbal commitment to Ohio State and would likely face a difficult transition to pro ball if he signs, but professional instruction could help him unlock his raw potential.

      For free it is worth taking a look at that guy, worst that happens is you cut him next month. He is out for 50 games, but by putting him on Lakewood he can use the suspensions up while working out in Florida.

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      1. Perhaps the Phillies other German product…the young outfielder, who’s name escapes me now, can benefit from having a countryman here with him.

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        1. Altherr was born on an army base but isn’t German. I don’t think the German we signed a year or so ago is in the states yet, is he?

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      2. Yeah, good deal. You have to keep examining guys like this. Eventually we’ll find another Werth or reasonable facsimile. With the condition our org is in, it makes no sense to sit pat with what we’ve already got.

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        1. We actually had Vogelsong, Grilli, and Bass, all of whom, once we let them go, have done marvelously.

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          1. That was I think very much a function of Manuel’s loyalty to his vets. It was extremely hard for someone to be given a job on the big Phillies mid-season, barring injury. Jobs were awarded in the off-season. That’s one reason why trading for or signing a FA dud was as awful as it was. They filled the spot.

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      3. That’s an interesting thing I didn’t realize about minor league suspensions. If you have a guy who would be short-season ball get hit with a suspension, putting them on a higher level league roster starts the suspension off with that team’s game.

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