Yesterday my Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide arrived. I highly recommend it, the e-book is a bit cheaper, but I am partial to hard copies of prospect books to grab at any point. You should also buy it to support the great work the BP prospect team does including two of our new writers CJ Wittmann and Chris King. But enough of that.
The BP guide includes three comparable players for each prospect. They represent a range of outcomes, and aren’t always accurate due to sample sizes and other weird statistical things. These comparables come from PECOTA and I have also included the top 10 PECOTA player comparables overall from BP’s website for each Top 10 prospect. (as well as 2014 MLB projection, because they are fun) These could change by next week as players change how they are, but keep in mind that PECOTA has a lot of data to work with and the more data it is given, the more accurate it becomes.
1. Maikel Franco – 3B (.255/.282/.427)
Handbook: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores
Top 10: Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Vitters, Wilmer Flores, Mike Moustakas, Dayan Viciedo, Nick Castellanos, Nolan Arenado, Aderlin Rodriguez, Matt Dominguez, Edison Rincon
2. Jesse Biddle – LHP (4.65 ERa, 4.77 FIP)
Handbook: Zach Wheeler, Dan Cortes, Carlos Carasco
Top 10: Jeurys Familia, Zach Wheeler, Daniel Haigwood, Manny Banuelos, Dan Cortes, Charlie Lowell, Keyvius Sampson, Carlos Carasco, Brandon Erbe, Scott Barnes
3. J.P. Crawford – SS (.209/.269/.292)
Handbook: Jonathan Schoop, Elvis Andrus, Ruben Tejada
Top 10: Hak-Ju Lee, Jecksson Flores, Gabriel Franco, Pablo Reyes, Trevor Story, Cito Culver, Jiovanni Mier, Jonathan Schoop, Francisco Lindor, Ronald Bueno
4. Kelly Dugan – RF ( .237/.286/.391)
Handbook: Roger Kieschnick, Matt Joyce, J.D. Martinez
Top 10: Kevin KYnes, Steven Selsky, Johermyn Chavez, Roger Kieschnick, Michael Burgess, Bryce Brentz, Christian Marrero, Ronnie Welty, Brandon Tripp, Dusty Robinson
5. Carlos Tocci – CF (.204/.235/.272)
Handbook: Michael BRantley, Che-Hsuan Lin, Andrew McCutchen
Top 10: Frederick Parejo, Gustavo Martinez, Kolby Copeland, Jonathan Reynoso, Michael Brantley, Socrates Brito, Luis Barahona, Christopher Garia, Arthuer Bonevacia, Jay Austin
6. Deivi Grullon – C (.193/.231/.273)
Handbook: Christian Bethancourt, Cedric Hunter, Caleb Gindl
Top 10: Pedro Severino, Juan De La Cruz, David Sopika, Carlos Sanchez, Franco Pizzoli, Jose Mayorga, Wilson Garcia, Cameron Garfield, Rodney Dahl
7. Severino Gonzalez – RHP (4.16 ERA, 4.22 FIP)
Handbook: Luis Marte, Phillippe Aumont, Eduardo Sanchez
Top 10: Juan Oramas, Justin Nicolino, Scott Barnes, Danny Duffy, Chad Billingsley, Trey McNutt, Will Inman, Drew Hutchinson, Jake Odorizzi, Julio Rodriguez
8. Cesar Hernandez – 2B/OF (.264/.301/.357)
Handbook: Emilio Bonifacio, Herman Iribarren, Jonathan Herrera
Top 10: Emilio Bonifacio, Jose Garcia, Brandon Douglas, Herman Iribarren, Jonathan Herrera, Dee Gordon, Joaquin Arias, Eric Young, Greg Miclat, DJ LeMahieu
9. Yoel Mecias – LHP (5.42 ERA 5.12 FIP)
Handbook: Chris Tillman, Wilmer Font, Jarrod Parker
Top 10: Kyle Allen, Paul Demny, Omar Poveda, Severino Gonzalez, David Perez, Oderman Rocha, Chris Tillman, Victor Garcia, Cameron Greathouse, Giovanni Soto
10. Cord Sandberg – OF (.186/.237/.267)
Handbook: Marcell Ozuna, Caleb Gindl, Che-Hsuan Lin
Top 10: Max Kepler, Johermyn Chavez, Nick Williams, Miguel Jimenez, Corey Adamson, Yonathan Daza, Bobby Stone, Justin Jacobs, James Harris, Argenis Aldazoro
Of these I love the Aumont comp for Severino, Michael Brantley for Carlos Tocci isn’t bad. At this point the write ups are more important, so go read those. Otherwise enjoy fun minor league statistical comps.
Phuture Phillies 
so basically according to the this guide everybody in the phillies minor league system is gonna suck , 209 ba for crawford , south of the mendoza for c sanberg and d grullon , cant wait for this season to really get going to prove these people wrong, thanks i might have bought this but im not spending my scratch and rain clouds
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You realize that was a 2014 projection if they played in the majors now? I actually think those projections are quite optimistic
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if you are following the farm system you should realize you should accept that fact. brutally bad
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upon first inspection I thought MLB said MiLB , after all this is a minor league site, so my bad there. Optimistic for sure Tocci wont have that high of an slugging percentage in low A. do they also predict what kinda year the players will have playing in their current league?
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They don’t, it is really hard to know what league, the park factors of that league, and then you have to throw in that the development process doesn’t alway emphasize statistical results (for instance having Tocci work on bunting for a hit, or having hitters go the other way.
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I am just wondering matt, have you ever seen Biddle in person?. I just read a story on philly news. there were two reviews one said he has seen him pitch and thinks he wont be much, the other said every time something goes wrong he blames team mates, just wondering if these comments hold any merit.
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By reviews, I think you mean “comments,” which tend to be a cesspool of ignorance and negativity on Philly.com. For instance, I went and checked and one of the comments you’re citing said “stop with the biddle as a prospect crap” and then in the next sentence suggested that he would turn out to be Randy Wolf “at best.” Which, you know, would be a pretty great outcome for Biddle! Who knows what to think about the random person who says he saw Biddle act frustrated with his teammates when things go wrong. He’s probably one of the same people who think Jimmy Rollins is a clubhouse cancer when he’s not hitting game-winning walkoff home runs like he did tonight.
But I realize, you didn’t ask me. Matt?
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ty never seeing him made me wonder. and lmao I am one of those who think jimmy lazy tactics is a downer on this team, but that’s another story
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Another something funny is Servino is a better pitcher than Biddle according to this
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personally i think he may turn out to be. biddle kinda looks like one of those guys that never improves for whatever the reason. hoping i’m wrong but?
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The only thing these comps reinforce for me is how little I really know about major league baseball, despite watching it pretty much every night. Who are all these names?
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ACA:
You never heard of Argenis Alda ‘the’ zorro?
Where have you been?
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The link for Cesar Hernandez says he’s 47 years old. I knew he’s been around for what seems like forever but he’s getting bit long in the tooth at 47.
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Thats Cesar Hernandez of the DR, the Cesar Dario (Perez) Hernandez…ours is the Cesar Hernandez of the Ven…possibly cousins?.
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