Yesterday John Sickels of Minor League Ball released his Phillies Top 20 prospects. The list was created with the knowledge of preseason results so it does differ from other lists. The full list can be found here.
- Maikel Franco
- J.P. Crawford
- Jesse Biddle
- Roman Quinn
- Carlos Tocci
- Aaron Altherr
- Kelly Dugan
- Dylan Cozens
- Cord Sandberg
- Ken Giles
- Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
- Ethan Martin
- Cesar Hernandez
- Severino Gonzalez
- Zach Green
- Shane Watson
- Cameron Rupp
- Tommy Joseph
- Mario Hollands
- Luis Encarnacion
The one thing that really stuck with me is the paragraph on Franco where Sickels says:
Despite impeccable performance at young age, some observers still critique his swing and overall approach. Usually serious swing problems show up with an elevated strikeout rate and/or serious production slippage in the high minors, but so far that hasn’t occurred. We’ll see what happens in Triple-A, but overall I can’t see how Franco is anything but an elite prospect.
As those that follow me on twitter know, I completely disagree with this statement. I will have much more on Franco in the next few weeks. I think that evaluating Franco by his strikeout rate misses the whole problem with his swing. I certainly don’t think Franco is a bad prospect, but I think it is becoming evident he may not be as elite as some expected.
Phuture Phillies 
Also no Deivi Grullon in the top 20? What?
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Matt I don’t think John is stating a much different outcome than you are if you look at the grade “A-” which puts him on the lower end of the following:
“Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a reasonable chance of becoming stars or superstars. In theory, most Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or unanticipated problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major “if” in some cases.”
Are you really contending that he will not be a regular at the ML level with a chance at being a star? Would a career similar to Victorino’s be out of the question, where he has a nice streach of success over a 5-8 yr period with maybe an all star appearance or 2?
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Sandberg being so high is a very good sign.
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I am a bit mystified that he isn’t more highly regarded by people around here – 18 in the fan rankings was ridiculous. Yeah, his debut was regarded as disappointing, but:
(1) We knew he was raw;
(2) He DOESN’T seem to have the kind of flaw that our “toolsie” prospects seem so often to have – i.e., the lack of a hit tool. His K rate was an okay 18.4%. And his BB% was 12.2%.
(3) Sample size.
If we’re talking ceiling, he may be the second best prospect in the system.
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There have been enough failed toolsy position players over the past decade, that I think there is serious reluctance to rate the current toolsy guys too highly, until they actually perform. Short-season is awful to project from, but it’s all we have. Not a lot of reason to put raw/toolsy Sandberg ahead of raw/toolsy Cozens, Pujols, Green, Greene, Quinn, Tocci, Altherr, Sweeney. They are all lottery tickets at this point.
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Agree with Atown. My personal feeling is to be really excited about him and if he tore up the GCL then i would have had him higher. But since he didn’t and his projection still is very good just the proximity is so far away it is tough to rank him ahead of guys who have maybe less high ceilings but have proven more.
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oh and when he starts showing any signs of polish he is a top 5 candidate for me. And i had him at 11-15 range personally and thought 18 was too high.
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I think 11-15 is very reasonable for Sandberg, but what this exercise demonstrates is what we said during the poll: the Phillies have 10-20 middling prospects which you can throw a basket over and say they are roughly equivalent — some are still young, toolsy, and raw without a lot of good stats, some are farther up the organization but have lower ceilings. Among the raw/toolsy guys the ranking depends in large measure on how you value the individual tools, what position the guy plays, etc. On my list of toolsy guys, I can’t believe I missed two of my personal favorites: Guillon and Jan Hernandez. Then there is Encarnacion and Tromp not all that far behind. Hopefully some of these guys come near their potential. Likely most will fall far short of their ceiling. At this stage in their careers, it’s really next to impossible to tell which guy is in which group. The reader poll ranking of 18 for Sandberg is not at all outrageous. BA has him at 25, but they have some guys above him (Joseph, Watson, Morgan, Perkins) whom I can’t at all agree with, but even striking those guys puts him at 21.
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How does Quinn stay so high on the prospect list. He hasn’t played in a year & wasn’t doing great before the injury.He is a horible Short Stop & a average hitter. I just don’t get it, is it all based on his speed. If so lets start drafting track stars.
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Quinn has a broad array of high ceiling baseball and athletic skills, and the scouting reports are excellent on those abilities and not just as a result of his speed – he is supposed to have surprising pop in his bat as well. The biggest problem is that he’s had two injuries that have kept him off the field for a long time. And more was thrown at this kid than any prospect I can remember. While adjusting to professional ball, they asked him (a former outfielder), to learn shortstop and switch hit. Tell me one person who wouldn’t, at some level, struggle with that for a while? Quinn is fine in the 4-7 range and apparently he is healing well from his surgery.
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No, it’s not all about the speed, although he is very, very fast. He was new to switch hitting and put up a .778 OPS at Williamsport as a nineteen-year old. That’s actually quite promising for a SS or CF. The Phillies still seem to think he can learn to play SS, which is a new position for him and that he can easily slide into CF if he has to move off SS. His Lakewood prior-to-injury numbers didn’t match what he did in Williamsport, but a 20-year old sprinter is not going to put up a .669 OPS in Lakewood while still working on his switch hitting. Quinn isn’t just a speedster. He has some baseball skills. He certainly strikes out too much for the sort of hitter he is, but he walks plenty and has shown some pop, especially at Lakewood. If it weren’t for not knowing how much the Achilles tear degrades his skills long-term, I’d have ranked him top 5. If he is healthy, he really does belong that high.
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