General Discussion – Week of 4-7-2014 – Fifth Starter Edition

With today’s rain-out in Philadelphia, the big club will need its fifth starter on Saturday, a day earlier than anticipated. Someone other than the current four starters was going to have to make a start this coming Sunday anyway, and with David Buchanan scheduled to pitch tomorrow, what looked to be a fairly simple decision has a new wrinkle. Buchanan would either need to take this MLB start on Saturday on short rest, whether by pitching just a couple innings Tuesday (or Wednesday/Thursday perhaps, in lieu of what might otherwise be his pre-start bullpen session), or they will need to use someone else.

Speculation in the beat/blog world is that Jonathan Pettibone could be used on long rest, (he pitched yesterday). That’s not a bad plan, as it also negates the need for a 40-man move. Alternately, you could see a bullpen game started by Jeff Manship, or least likely, IMO, someone like LVH’s Greg Smith, who is scheduled to be on the hill today, could be used for a spot start. Smith is unlikely to be claimed off of waivers, so getting him back to Lehigh Valley should not be an issue, though you would need to waive someone like Tyson Gillies or 60-day DL Ethan Martin to make it happen.

Don’t discount the possibility that they choose to use Kyle Kendrick on short rest and Buchanan on Sunday as planned. Seems unlikely, but if they don’t believe Pettibone is ready to come back from his shoulder issue, and don’t want to mess with Buchanan’s routine prior to his big league debut, it could make sense. Kendrick’s been a fungible arm in the past, operating as a swingman for most of 2011-2012. Again, unlikely, but I could see it.

Discuss.

70 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 4-7-2014 – Fifth Starter Edition

  1. I would like to see Buchanan get an opportunity but agree it will probably be Pettibone. Have always liked Buchanan, would be good to see what his potential could be.

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  2. Dont waive Gillies that would be as dumb as exposing Seth Rosin to rule 5 and then releasing Stutes a month later , oh wait that is what happened so i am not sure what will happen im honestly hoping bullpen or early Kendrick start , please dont release any players

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      1. Gillies is not a guy I would leave exposed. As frustrating as he is the team rightly perceives him as having intriguing upside – that ability is real albeit annoyingly elusive. Collier is never going to end up being more than a defensive replacement in the big leagues (if he makes it that far), so I could less if they leave him exposed. He can’t hit.

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  3. It’ll probably be Pettibone and its the right decision if healthy. I wdnt mind Buchanan ,either. Pettibone having a level of success last yr gives him the edge in my mind. Please no bullpen game. We went thru that in each of the last couple of years and it hasn’t been successful yet.

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  4. A few highlights of today’s XST game. Even though Sandberg K’d in his 1st 2 AB’s, he did extend both ABs by seeing a lot of pitches and fouling a few, then he hit a hard ground ball single up the middle in his last AB. J. Hernandez K’d in his 1st AB but then homered and singled. Grullon was 1 for 3, Trey Williams doubled, walked and then K’d, Sweaney singled and walked. Encarnacion K’d twice and booted two grounders in one inning. And finally Galvis was rehabbing and hit 2 HRs.

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  5. Brad, did you see that Larry Shenk responded to your comment in The Phillies Insider? Kevin Brady was released August 7th. I went back and checked the Phillies’ transactions and found nothing. Baseball America Minor League Transactions for the week og August 1-7 list him as “reinstated from the DL”. Nothing more the following weeks. Guess they released in the same move.

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    1. If Crawford starts hitting for power (and it’s looking like, at the very least, he’s developing some power), he’s going to become a top 10 prospect in minor league baseball. He probably needs a good 60 or more games in Lakewood just to smooth out the imperfections (fielding, etc. . . ), but he’s a tremendous prospect and, in my mind, he’s the current top prospect for the Phillies, which is not meant as a slight on Franco or Biddle.

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      1. It’s insanely early, but you’re eight that if he can keep this up thru 60 games, they’re going to push him thereafter. At this point he’s just a hair behind Franco based on level, but I like Crawford’s overall package far better than Maikel’s.

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  6. Meh I don’t think Ben is either horrific or great and I don’t see nationally where they are constantly on his nuggets so overrated doesn’t quite fit either.

    Lincoln on the other hand has been horrific. Hopefully the leash on him is short.

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    1. His throwing arm is terrible, he gets bad jumps on balls rather often, and he literally drops balls somewhat regularly. His speed makes up for a bit of this but not nearly enough. I believe this team would be stronger with Byrd in CF, and Ruf in RF when he returns rather than the current arrangement.

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      1. Buddy…this is why I could never be a good GM…I would put Dom Brown in RF and Ruf in LF. Brown played over 325 MiLB games in RF with a strong arm and good speed and Ruf’s speed/range translates better to LF. But that is too logical to make sense.

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        1. Well apparently Ruben is mauling over putting Domo in RF and making other changes to the OF structure according to Jayson S this afternoon.

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    2. Dmar the guy drops balls in the outfield, how can you say he is anything but bad? as a outfielder. The ball he came in on in centerfield and went off his glove. his bad glove really negates his speed. cant come In on balls. cant go back. gets bad jumps’ wish that I would see what you see. I don’t know how old you are. but this guy is like Alex Johnson who could hit but was so bad in the outfield we traded him to the reds.

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      1. I’m 44 so I didn’t really see him play. I was raised on Gary the secretary of defense Maddox a hall mark CF for sure. Having said that I can remember Victorino having his woes at first becoming a full time CF in the Bank.

        I’m willing to give Ben a pass for now with the acknowledgment that he does need to improve beyond the occasional highlight plays.

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      1. I honestly thought Lincoln was a solid pick-up but he is not the same pitcher I saw with Pittsburgh a few seasons back.

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  7. I really feel right now there is no direction on this team. The owners don’t want to rebuild, the gm is horrible. attendance is down, and they have a bad farm system right now, I believe this team cant have it both ways, you either get rid of the older guys, eat some contracts and go young, get some excitement back. Or stay mediocre like they are and hope in three years your drafts help, but in the mean time we suffer .Amaro has really back them in a corner with the bad contracts, and his lack of knowledge in building a bullpen, my god how in the world is this guy still the gm. I just have a hard time watching them, did you ever see a worst outfield?? with a bad defense and bad bullpen and imo no solid fourth starter things are really bad. I think they have to move lee later for sure, think about eating contract and seeing if there Is interest in Howard as a dh, with his lack of speed, I believe its his only option
    ,don’t give pap a chance to get the needed innings to extend his deal. I would also see if there is interest, real interest in Hamels, at thirty and with them looking like a total rebuild, without direction it will be at least three years to get better or more, so get younger and I would never as a owner give that responsibility to Amaro. someone else

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    1. roccom you need help!!! Please find a professional that can help you. You can’t go through life like that, there is so much good and beautiful in the world. I am not trying to be funny.

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    2. There’s a clear direction. You might not like the direction or feel (as I do) that the direction is basically right, but management is still managing to lose their way through questionable talent judgment… but the direction of the franchise is pretty clear – rebuild without doing a (counterproductive) tear down.

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      1. One point to keep in mind – the combination of the natural transition process of a contender with an aging core and past mistakes is such that a quick turn around would be impossible even with the best front office in the game.

        Another, of course, is the injury related implosion of our pitching prospects – whether you blame luck or the organization, that tells us nothing about the direction of the franchise.

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        1. I disagree that it tells us nothing about the direction of the org, whether the pitching injuries are bad luck or do to organizational approach. Just as using a first rounder on a guy like Hewitt and a second rounder on Hudson potentially points to hole in scouting/draft philosophy, a rash of injuries could point to a hole in the minor league development or training staff. I still doubt the wisdom of Biddle pitching through all his health problems last season. We don’t know what the other pitchers pitched through. If we need to rebuild through the farm, and that definitely needs to be a key to the rebuild, then it is vital to do an honest review of the whole scouting/development philosophy/staff/budget and make certain that we are doing everything possible to maximize the flow of talent from the farm.

          I agree that trading Hamels would be beyond stupid. Come the trade deadline, I’d certainly be willing to move Paps, Lee, Rollins, Byrd for the right return. I seriously doubt Howard Is tradeable, unless he has a much better season than I expect him to have. I am ambivalent about parting with Utley in the right deal at the deadline. He is still good and so much the face of the franchise, but we won’t win again during the remainder of his career. Trading him would really be a hit to attendance.

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          1. Absurd. Ridiculous. Magical thinking. Not even taking the best aspects of the Cardinals, the Braves, the Red Sox and the Rays organizations. Developing prospects takes years.

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      2. I Believe that romus. so the direction is wait out the bad contract to Howard , pap, and be bad without anyone seeing it? Larry I don’t agree, you talking mediocre team
        ,not lousy enough to get top pick ,and do you really trust the personal people making those picks. I remember the three good picks we had Gose, Collier, Hewitt, but I guess that doesn’t count , and thinking trading Hamels is crazy isn’t . does anyone really believe with there way of doing the rebuild per Larry, it will be less than three years, so a hurt often Hamesl at 34 might not be worth what a team might give you now to rebuild, I would see is all I am saying, if they make a offer we cant refuse why not. your not going to win a pennant for a while.With this no totally rebuild way they are going,

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        1. Okay rocom, you aren’t defending your original point, you’re just saying that you want them to take another direction – a tear down. I’m not going to revisit THAT issue, though I disagree quite strongly.

          I will ask/say two things:
          (1) If you can’t trust them to make god use of their picks, how can you trust them to get a good return on trading veterans?
          (2) I’m not saying that trading Hamels is crazy, but nor is the alternative of keeping him. Really I’m not sure that it matters much – they aren’t getting a top prospect for him, given his contract.

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        2. I mean roccom, you’re argument as such is:

          (1) Assume that a team makes a great offer for Hamels;
          (2) Assume that the Phillies reject it.
          (3) That would be bad.

          That argument is relevant in a world where both assumptions are true. Are we living in that world? Who knows? It’s not an argument against the organization; it’s an argument against a hypothetical organization under hypothetical circumstances.

          And I say that even as a very strong critic of the organization.

          The rest of the argument is about execution, not strategy, And there I agree with you. But changing the strategy won’t fix that problem.

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    3. roccom…..want more unpleasant tidings?
      Grandson of Claire Betz, one of the Phillies owners who recently passed away, thus the CB patch on the unis, was bending my friends ear since he was seated next to him behind 3rd base dugout at the opener the other day, so finally my friend, getting tired of the constant chatter from the man, asks him point blank, “what about Ruben and this awful team out there’?….his words…Ruben will never be fired.
      So I guess Ruben is here to stay.

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      1. Assuming that this guy knows what he’s talking about, which I suppose requires that his grandmother actually cared enough about the team to understand things, this suggests that the owners may finally be coming to the realization that they themselves have been the major problem with the organization. Monty’s comments early in the off-season certainly reflect a realization that there is nothing that RAJ or any GM can do to make this team a winner over the next two seasons, and that is taking the optimistic view. I doubt RAJ had any more choice on giving Howard his early deal than Wade had to give Burrell the early extension and FNTC. The owners could afford it and after Rolen/Schill were allergic to another star painting them as cheap. A lot of what the Phillies do is about PR and making the owners look as good as possible. The owners don’t want an abrupt falloff in attendance. That constrains what the GM can do.

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        1. Like I told my friend, the guy is probably correct,because Ruben is also the Sr VP of Operations….he will replace himself and still be there in some capacity. My concern, if he should do that, he may turn to his other close friend, Ed Wade.
          Claire Betz inherited the team from her husband…he of Betz Lab fame. She was big in local charity philanthropy.

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        2. I heard that so far its a thirty one percentage drop off in sales, if true that is a big drop, I read that they were down six thousand in season tickets sales , so I really don’t know what a abrupt falloff is, but these numbers if true are big to me, but only my opinion. I love the Phillies, but watching a slow, old team isn’t exciting to me, but when I say it I am nuts, according to this site. I would rather have a Galvis at short right now than Rollins and his lazy hustle, rather have a Biddle as a fifth starter than Roberto. rather see ruf in left than Byrd or revere play. Rather have rupp as my backup for now, some younger guys, who might be our future. So they get there butts kicked around cause they are younger long as they get the experience and show us if they can play, that’s whats important.

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          1. I think there are many posters on this site that would rather see the youngsters like Galvis, Ruf, Rupp, and Hernandez play more. And I think Sandberg will try to do just that, mixing it up, and like to see the transistion from the past glory to the future glory.
            However, realistically, will this team , as currently constructed, be able to pass the Nationals or Braves come August, probably not.

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            1. Romus I just get the feeling, that especially Larry, agree with the not rebuilding but retooling, until the contracts runs out. with that kind of thinking, your talking about three years like this, and wasting a ruf, glavis, you wont see if they can really play or not. with jimmy and Howard blocking them and byrd , I suggested also to look into moving lee and hamels, right now we would waste three years of hamels in his prime, rather would like to see if we could get two great prospects for him. if this is the case..We right now are like the sixers, with the bad contracts the only way to get better is to become the worst team. which is happening to get better draft choices, the problem is that I really don’t trust there personal department to make the right choices, but that’s me.

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          2. Just as ownership gambled and lost on the bet that riding the old core would produce extra WS, which would hold fan loyalty during the rebuild, they have gambled and lost on the bet that familiar names and family entertainment would keep attendance loss to a minimum. Rupp really shouldn’t be a backup this season. I would have been quite willing to have him catch half our games, but with Ruiz signed to a biggish deal, that wasn’t going to happen. I’d like to see Galvis, Ruf, and Hernandez playing more, although I really don’t want to see Galvis until he has used up his max rehab assignments. He’s now hitting less than .100 in A+-ball.

            There really isn’t a quick turnaround at the present time. The big error that ownership made was following the Selig wishes on draft and international spending, at a time when the actual rules permitted them to spend a lot more. A lot of the problem with the Hewitts in the draft was a low-budget scouting staff gambling for the really long-shot guy, rather than being able to afford several better odds prospects. The team’s draft position precluded spending on the high probability/high reward guys at the head of the draft, but there were occasional big names who fell to our position in the draft. I’ll say ‘in retrospect’, although it seemed obvious at the time, that ‘over-spending’ on these guys would have been money far better spent than the $ that were spent on bad vets, like the Youngs. All it took was a bigger budget for us to have landed some of the primo Latin American talents.

            I wanted to trade more of the vets at last year’s trade deadline. That really was the smart move. Now is not the time you can trade and over the winter probably wasn’t either. If our vets stay healthy and have relatively good seasons, the trade opportunity should still be there at this year’s trade deadline. That will just put the prospects we get a year behind where they would have been had we made the move last season.

            Thus far, the Phillies have been lucky on vet injuries. Howard, Rollins, Utley, Byrd, Lee are all healthy and Paps is healthier than could reasonably be expected. What was the likelihood of that? That we got that luck and are still only playing .333 ball really says something about the current strategy.

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          3. C’mon Larry…get out of that solipsistic vacuum ….in a few weeks from now you know you will again be debating with roccom.

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          4. larrry you are the moron, a sick stat man. I never called you a name, its my opinion, if you every played this game, you would know that some have the makeup to take there lumps at the big league level, but you only read books, so you have no idea, how the game is on the field, only what your stats, tells you. What a idiot you are, the never wrong larry, and yes I don’t want rollins around anymore he doesn’t hustle and sets a bad example for the team, but you wouldn’t understand that, See you would have had to play to realize what it does to a team, and its morale, when a guy is lazy, while you bust your gut, no one can voice any opinion why this moron larry Is on here.

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  8. I am having trouble finding anything on viza, like velocity, and what kind of stuff he has, I looked up his high school, and if I am right, he only pitched his junior and senior year, and had a 1.48 era in senior year. What I am looking at seems, like he didn’t pitch much. can anyone who seen him help.

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      1. Seems like the Phillies were right after all to expose him….guess they do know what they are doing.

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          1. I’m sure they could give him away. He has added value as a guy we can stash in the minors. All the other teams had to keep him on the 25-man roster. We did make $25K on the deal, although we spent that on our own Rule-5 pick Munson, who didn’t even make it out of ST. I think clearly Rosin should not have been unprotected, given some of the guys who stayed on the 40-man and were cut fairly quickly. I understand Stutes — it was a question of whether he’d heal up over the winter. We also cleared a 40-man spot to be able to draft Munson, and Rosin was better than Munson. Of the guys available, Munson wasn’t an especially exciting gamble.

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  9. So what IS the end game on Howard?

    They don’t seem willing to platoon him. Hopefully that will change. He’s untradeable. They are not going to release him.

    And he’s a poor defensive first baseman who can’t run the bases and his hitting .216 with less power than Freddy Galvis. The only good thing he’s been doing is drawing BBs – but even there, his plate discipline data is very poor, so I don’t know how sustainable it is. Yes, SSS – but his last season of adequacy was three years ago. And his last season where he was, you know, good, was 2009. Yes, injuries. But what’s the prospect of a truly healthy Howard? And does that explain the drop in power?

    People get on Rollins, but he’s actually off to a good start.

    Howard’s signed for 2 more years after this season, and an option year with an extremely high buy out after that.

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    1. I think it’s too early to say they won’t platoon him. For one, his likely platoon partner is hurt, and for two they were never going to make that decision this early in the season anyway. Loyalty and all that.

      You’re right about the plate discipline data: he’s swinging at even more pitches outside the zone than normal. It’s kind of crazy that only 37% of the pitches he’s seeing are in the strike zone. I guess that’s what’s leading to the elevated BB rate even if he is swinging (and making contact) more often out of the zone.

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    2. Yeah, it is clear that owners/RAJ have sent message that they are paying Howard a ton of money, so he is going to play every game he is half-way physically able. Sandberg has already said Howard’s knee is still bothering him to the extent it is affecting his defense. If they are unwilling to platoon an injured Howard…? It appears that owners/RAJ consider to much an embarrassing admission of failure to go with the platoon. Perhaps if Howard’s knee continues to act up after Ruf is available?

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    3. At this rate, the buy out looks like the bargain of the century compared with the salary they would have to pay him.

      Still, while the fielding has been atrocious, he really does seem to be much, much more disciplined at the plate. And it’s not only Howard, the entire team is working pitchers like they haven’t in years and years and the early results are encouraging.

      On another topic, I still don’t know what to make of Domonic Brown. I think the way they have him standing and swinging allows him to make good, solid contact but deprives him of a lot of power. I’m no swing doctor, but I think a small swing cue that better enables him to shift his weight could make a huge difference. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if one day, Domonic Brown woke up, made a slight adjustment and became a big star, and it also wouldn’t surprise me if he never gets better. I still think, however, that there is a lot of potential that remains untapped.

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  10. Roccom, was that you behind the bench last night talking trash to Rollins? (I kid, I kid.)

    “Lazy” Rollins is hitting .316/.395/.553. I realize that relying on those stats doesn’t tell the whole story. After all, it’s OBVIOUS that Rolliin’s failure to run full speed on routine grounders is the cause of the team’s pitching woes.

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    1. LarryM…..there you go….you can be light at times,
      ’tis not a weakness for an attorney to have a sense of humor!.

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  11. damm computer 12 games, I know that jimmy is a great fielder, and decent hitter, but my thing with him is his attitude and laziness, I guess its me only, but to be asked to run 4 or 5 times a game, isn’t imo too much to ask a player to do, hitting a groundball and not running hard to first, just get to me. I seem to be the only one who thinks it important to hustle, my problem is I watch Utley who plays the game right, and think other should do the same.

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    1. My experience with the Phillies announcers/media and hustle over the years has not been at all favorable, so I am an extreme skeptic of claims that one of our better players is a problem because he is lazy, doesn’t hustle, doesn’t behave as the leader he should be, has a bad attitude, yadda, yadda, yadda. I first encountered this as a young fan, when it was directed against Richie Allen, who was performing as a HOF-quality player at the time. Then really, really heard it about Abreu, who was the all-time Phillies OBP leader at the time and still a decent power guy. I remember the total adulation poured on Pete Rose during his time in Phillie… hustle, leadership, playing the game the right way, teaching our poor Phillies players how to win, ad nauseum. Rose was a way below star quality 1B at the time, not even close to major league average. David Bell got almost as much unwarranted adulation from our announcers. The media described Abreu as a cancer in the clubhouse. After all the guys were gone, some players intimated that the entitled Bell and Lieberthal were the clubhouse problems. I got to thinking there was something of a racial component in this hustle thinking. It was a racial code-word for not the type of guy we wanted on our team. Then there was the treatment of Rolen, Schill, and Burrell as ungrateful, bad attitude guys, just because the owners were unwilling/unable to spend enough to field a competitive team. Be very careful swallowing the line that the announcers, team, and media puts out about certain players. It’s insidious. You may say you see with your own eyes that Rollins isn’t running out all his ground balls and looks like he’s dogging it, but what the announcers call attention to, what the manager or a media person remarks upon, even how long the camera man lingers upon the base runner influence what you ‘see’ with your own eyes. That can transform the actual facts: the guy in question runs out about the same percentage of easy grounders as just about every other player on the team or in MLB, into the false perception that this one guy is dogging it. Then the brain massages the facts to fit the story: this guy owes it to us to show a level of hustle beyond that of the typical player, because you pick it: he’s paid more than the average guy, he thinks he’s a star, he’s supposed to be a team leader, he’s fast so he should take full advantage of his speed, he doesn’t grimace and throw his bat to the ground when he strikes out so he just doesn’t care.

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      1. I saw a lot of Richie Allen, and it was totally racial, believe me, he had so much ability, lighting quick at third, but had trouble with his throws. Swung a 40 ounce bat like it was a toothpick. but the incident with Thomas sealed his fate, imo was unfair. Scott Rollins to my knowledge was all about the Phillies not spending to win, but, that is what I thought was the problem, Talking about Pete rose, how many first basemen would have made that play in the world series when the ball bounced out of bob Boone glove?? pete was not the best athlete but his hustle and determination made him great. so if I understand you, when a whole stadium is booing a lack of hustle is bought on by the media attention ???

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        1. That wasn’t really a hustle play by Rose, although it was a very good defensive play. The first baseman as well as the catcher would typically go after that ball. It happened to bounce towards Rose and he had the presence of mind and quick reaction to catch it. That doesn’t take away from the fact that he was a pretty bad offensive player for a 1B during his time in Philly. Had he still been able to play well in IF and OF, as he did earlier in his career, his offensive output would have been more acceptable, but as a 1B, it just wasn’t okay. Yes, when the whole stadium reacts to a perceived lack of hustle, if often is as a result of training by the announcers/media/team. Why else would the exact same degree of hustle be universally booed for one player and ignored for another guy on the team? Fans like to claim that they judge fairly only by what they ‘see’, but in reality I think are pretty much led around by the nose. Thus we get reactions that while player X is clearly better than player Y, he is clearly dogging it while player Y is trying really, really hard and doing the best he can, because the fan just knows that player X is supposed to be a whole heckuva lot better than player Y and would be if he were really trying. How much grief has DOmonic Brown gotten on message boards because ‘he hasn’t been as good as they said he was’?

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          1. I’d add that, even in the absence of the announcer/media dynamic which you correctly cite, history – not just baseball history – demonstrates all too sadly the reality of irrational mob behavior – which this is. A stadium of booing fans certainly can be wrong, and often are.

            Really though I’m going to try to give up engaging this sort of garbage.. There are things which reason able people can disagree about, and there are things about which they can’t. The absurd “Rollins is lazy” meme is not only comfortably in the latter category, but so clearly the opposite of the the truth that we’re getting into flat earth territory.

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            1. Note that I’m not saying Rollins is beyond criticism – I don’t buy the “running out routine grounder” critique, but one can make a case for (very mild) criticism of him on that basis that at least fits into the “reasonable minds may differ” category.

              But if one looks at the whole picture – defense, base running, conditioning, and so on – the idea that he is lazy is absurd. I compared that to flat earth thinking, but that’s unfair to flat earthers.

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        2. I remember a playoff elimination game not too long ago, in which a batter was about to make the final out of the series and lose, so you could see he busted it out of the box, and was probably trying to run harder than he ever had before.

          The added hustle didn’t help him at all; he was thrown out, and the winning team celebrated all around as he was crumpled in a heap between home and first. His achilles had blown out. The player hasn’t been the same since.

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  12. I throw this out there not because it means anything, but for fun:

    In two weeks, Utley and Rollins have produced more value between them (2.0 fWAR) than Howard has in the past 4 plus years (1.7 fWAR).

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  13. I never saw Perkins play, only go by this stats, couple questions on him, what kind of prospect is he, looking at him he doesn’t steal bases, and doesn’t show a lot of power, wondering who you would compare him to. Right now that is in the big league.

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    1. If he hit for more power, like last night in the Reading win, …IMO…it would be a Corey Hart type player.
      Apparently the Phillies, by moving him to and fro, from both corner OF positions and throw in some 1st base, want him to be versatile, defensively.that is.
      In the Big Ten with Purdue he was mostly third base.

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