Interview with Josh Norris of Baseball America

Josh Norris wrote the Phillies section for Baseball America this year.  He answered a few of my questions about the system as well as a few specific players.  The full list of Baseball America’s Top 30 prospects can be found here.

Since they were drafted Dylan Cozens and Zach Green have been linked together.  Both put up big power seasons in Williamsport in 2013.  Green is ranked 15 as a 50 high and Cozens comes in at 22 as a 50 Extreme.  What differentiates the two of them in your mind?

First and foremost is experience. This was Cozens’ first full season playing pro ball, and he performed well. There’s still a long way to go. He’s not real strong in the outfield, and some scouts already posit that he’s a first baseman in the long term.

By contrast, Green has plenty of baseball in his past. He performed well above-average in the New York-Penn League and showed enough with the glove that he didn’t get any “he’ll definitely have to move” comments from evaluators I spoke with.

To boil it down to one sentence: Cozens is an extreme because of his lack of baseball experience.

As the major league team has gone backwards the last few years, fans have turned to the farm for hope.  How do you see the system trending over the next few seasons?

It hasn’t had a great start this year, with Morgan and Watson needing shoulder surgeries, and Quinn busting his Achilles, so it probably takes a hit in the immediate future.

That said, Franco has a chance to be up this year, and the reports on him were fantastic. The way I’ve put it around the office is that, if you didn’t know any better, his reports sound like slightly lighter versions of the ones I got for Miguel Sano when I did the Eastern League Top 20.

When he graduates, however, the system will take a hit because he will no longer qualify.

I am a huge Jesse Biddle fan, and I’m interested to see how he does this year and how much of his control issues last year stemmed from the whooping cough and the plantar fasciitis.

I also like Aaron Altherr a bit. His body is exactly how you’d draw it up, and he has the strength for 15-20 HRs in the long term (and his power should play up at Reading this year). He’s a guy I could see having a breakout.

J.P. Crawford obviously leads the next wave, and Carlos Tocci and their big three international signings (Pujols, Grullon, Encarnacion) should go a long way in determining their overall future.

I think this system has a chance to take slow steps upward, but this year’s start hasn’t been great.

If you look at the raw stats Carlos Tocci had a rough year, but you ranked him as the #5 prospect in the system.  Do you think it is an indictment of the system or do you think he has a chance for a real breakout?

The numbers this year on Tocci are borderline irrelevant. Here’s what mattered to me: He played all year in the South Atlantic League as a 17-year-old and didn’t get the bat knocked out of his hands. The biggest number he needs to worry about his weight. This is a kid who definitely needed to take seconds and thirds from the pre-and postgame spreads.

Coming from the northeast, I got to watch him many times and noticed he made much harder contact as the year went on. He’s already an above average defender in center field and should stick there going forth.

Could he break out? Yes, although I’d think it’s something that may happen in 2015 rather than next year.

One of my favorite prospects is LHP Yoel Mecias because I am a sucker for a LHP with a good changeup, he will miss time in 2014 as he returns from injury, but how much upside do you think he has?

A lot obviously depends on how he comes back from the Tommy John surgery, but the plus changeup obviously gives him a leg up. His other three pitches rank as average right now, which gives him a floor of a back-end guy and the ceiling of a No. 3 if everything breaks correctly.

Deivi Grullon comes in at #14 on your list, it seems like he snuck up on casual fans this year.  How does he stack up against the elite defensive catchers in the minor leagues?

He’s got the ingredients to be a good defensive catcher going forth, no doubt, but there’s a long way to go. His arm is very strong and he’s proved that he can block balls, but he needs to get better with his lateral movement. He’s obviously not going to stack up with the Austin Hedges and Blake Swiharts of the world, but he’s got upside for sure.

Last year Kelly Dugan was listed as a first baseman and didn’t make the Top 30, this year he comes in at #17.  After hitting .291/.352/.506 across two levels in 2013, what more does he have to do to profile as a major league regular?

He needs to prove that he’s not going to get overwhelmed by better pitching at the upper levels. His swing is long and contains a bit of a hitch, and he’s primarily been a pull hitter for most of his career. He got exposed a bit in Double-A (.264/.299/.472 and a nearly 10-to-1 K:BB ratio) and will need to prove he can hit that kind of pitching before projecting him as much more than a lightning bolt off the bench.

Andrew Pullin is your sleeper in the handbook, what other player could you see making a jump into the Top 30 a year from now?

Samuel Hiciano might be that guy. He’s not much of a defender, but he can hit and hit with power. He had seven longballs in 136 at-bats in the Penn League and put together an on-base percentage of .346.

He probably would have been in the next five or so guys on my list.

When talking to scouts what was the guy that had the most helium in the system?

I think that would be either Crawford or Grullon. Scouts love Crawford both for his bat and his defense and think he has a legitimate chance to be Rollins’ heir in a few years. The only question I received on him was that his swing had a tendency to get a little bit long at times.

We already discussed Grullon, but having a catcher that young who is even a little bit advanced defensively is a plus. The comp I got most often for him was Carlos Ruiz, and I think Phillies fans would take that every day of the week.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

6 thoughts on “Interview with Josh Norris of Baseball America

  1. Great interview! I was surprised most to hear Franco and Sano weren’t far apart. I mean, statistically they’re not far apart but I feel like I remember several on here that swore up and down that Franco is a .260 hitter… Seems it’s pretty much unanimous that he’s looking more .290-.310.

    The one thing I wish would have been addressed was the ranking of Sev, I feel like that’s another area that on this site in particular there has been a lot of variety of opinion.

    Great content though, much thanks!

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    1. I didn’t bring up Severino since Josh’s opinions are pretty clear in the player writeup. He loves the multi-pitch mix (depending on how you classify them, it can be anywhere from 3 to 5 pitches). He thinks the changeup needs to come along to help in his struggles against LHBs. There are concerns about the frame and workload. Overall he sees a back of the rotation type pitcher.

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  2. Rather surprised on his outlook for Cozens…defensively that is..’not real strong in the OF…hes a first basemen in the long term’. That projection was what I read in 2012. From other reports I have read, not just from this site, is that his arm, speed and instincts are very much more then adequate. The very least, in LF he could be very good defensively with the arm strength and speed. I am sure he projects more favorable then Dom Brown, and Brown seem not to incur criticism of his outfield play in his first 3 1/2 years in the system.

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