24 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #21 – Luis Encarnacion”
I went with Shane Watson here. He would have been a lot higher if he didn’t have the injury. I don’t know what to do with Encarnacion. I don’t have any track record to go on. I know he was the 4th best LA signing this year but Hewitt and Larry Greene were million dollar babies and look how they’ve turned out. Right now, he’s not showing in my top 30. Cam Perkins is interesting. His bat looks good but he needs some AA experience to know for sure. He’ll be in the early 20’s somewhere. Mecias is another injured guy who would have been top 10 but here we are the 20s and he doesn’t have a single vote.
I have been going with Watson for a few picks. Reports on the surgery were that it was relatively minor, so I am not dropping his status that much. Agree that I have no idea where Encarnacion goes. We are really just slotting him in based on his bonus. Not as big a fan of Cam Perkins. He is one of those players without secondary skills or tools that really has little ceiling (extra OF/pinch hitter).
There is a difference between “clean it out” and “repair a tear”. Things like bone spurs and range of motion issues can be very different from tears. Shoulder injuries are definitely more serious these days than elbow injuries, but there is a range of outcomes and we assume a lot here without much concrete info.
Yes, but every injury is different and the point is we are just guessing here. We do not know. We assume that TJ surgery has a 98% recovery rate and shoulder surgery is more like 2%. The reality is somewhere in the middle. This is what Jordan said in CSN article a few weeks ago:
“We don’t expect it to be a major thing,” Jordan said. “Go in, do an evaluation and cleanup. We feel like we’re going to get a lot of innings and work in with Shane this summer.”
With Morgan the statement said he was “losing a year” so that appears more serious. Savery was more serious than we were led to believe, but of course that is why we got a top 10 guy with a lower pick in the first place.
Okay, but there’s a VERY big problem with your Jordan quote. It is clearly a pre-surgery opinion, not a description of what was actually found in his shoulder. The Savery quote was at least made post surgery. Shoulder surgeries are prone to be more complex and to find more damage than was initially thought. Do you have a post-surgery assessment?
Me too. I guess he has great defensive talent, but he was a normal-bonus 4th rounder, meaning a lot of teams passed him by 3-4 times in the draft. I think he’s a nice 4th rounder, but his offense seems really iffy. Truly SSS, but his K rate is alarming, he doesn’t walk quite enough, he showed little power, and the BA is dismal. Maybe there is something there that bursts forth this year, but the guy is closer to 30 for me
I switched to Sweaney from Encarnacion, based on Keith Law’s endorsement last week. At this point, I’ll value the expert opinion of the prospect evaluators over the monetary statement made by Encarnacion’s bonus.
Matt, I see your tweets about Mecias. Partly, I’ve downgraded him because I’m reluctant to rank anyone who is going to miss the majority of 2014 with an injury. Before he went down, there were questions about whether his frame was durable enough to start, and the injury seems to indicate maybe not. If he’s a reliever, I’m not sure he ranks here. Also I wonder whether the injury was related to mechanical issues? I saw some reference to his having kinks in his delivery prior to the injury–I wonder if they might have contributed to his big strikeout numbers, lots of time a weird delivery can create deception that leads to great short-term results for a pitcher, but long-term injury issues.
This is just speculation on my part, but I’d love to hear more from people who saw him pitch frequently.
Mecias had surgery in June so he should be on a mound in late spring and throwing in games over the summer. Frame is good enough, he does need to add some strength to it, but it is a bigger body than Severino. I am not going to read too much into the elbow, he had already set innings highs in 2013 at age 19, the ligament some times just goes.
I haven’t heard anything about the deception to the delivery being a part of the success. For the most part reports were average fastball, 89-92, but he was more 93-94 last fall (2012). You can see the room for more velocity because there is projection in the body. The slider is fringe average but could be average long term. The killer is the combination of pitchability and an advanced changeup, Eric Longenhagen of Crashburn puts a future 65 on it and notes it has strong screwball actions (this matches reports out of Fall Instructs in 2012)
Longenhagen, if I recall correctly, was the one who wrote something about his delivery being hinky. Glad to hear he’s coming back this year, I was just going by what’s in the the prospect profile on the site, which says he’s likely to miss much of 2014, glad to hear the prognosis has improved since you wrote that.
Watson for me- as many have said, we aren’t really sure of the extent of the shoulder injury and any shoulder issue isn’t good. However, as a #1 pick who looked solid in limited GCL in his first year, I feel like he deserves the benefit of the doubt. I know his Lakewood season didn’t go so well but, hey maybe he thought he was back in Lakewood, California.
Yeah, the people on this site who read about Phillies prospects every day have never heard of him and you, and only you, have heard the muse and discovered his greatness. Give me a break George!
Phuture Phillies 
I went with Shane Watson here. He would have been a lot higher if he didn’t have the injury. I don’t know what to do with Encarnacion. I don’t have any track record to go on. I know he was the 4th best LA signing this year but Hewitt and Larry Greene were million dollar babies and look how they’ve turned out. Right now, he’s not showing in my top 30. Cam Perkins is interesting. His bat looks good but he needs some AA experience to know for sure. He’ll be in the early 20’s somewhere. Mecias is another injured guy who would have been top 10 but here we are the 20s and he doesn’t have a single vote.
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I have been going with Watson for a few picks. Reports on the surgery were that it was relatively minor, so I am not dropping his status that much. Agree that I have no idea where Encarnacion goes. We are really just slotting him in based on his bonus. Not as big a fan of Cam Perkins. He is one of those players without secondary skills or tools that really has little ceiling (extra OF/pinch hitter).
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I don’t think there’s any such thing as minor shoulder surgery. Maybe it wasn’t as severe as Morgan’s, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a big red flag.
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There is a difference between “clean it out” and “repair a tear”. Things like bone spurs and range of motion issues can be very different from tears. Shoulder injuries are definitely more serious these days than elbow injuries, but there is a range of outcomes and we assume a lot here without much concrete info.
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Isn’t that pretty much how Savery’s shoulder surgery was described?
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Yes, but every injury is different and the point is we are just guessing here. We do not know. We assume that TJ surgery has a 98% recovery rate and shoulder surgery is more like 2%. The reality is somewhere in the middle. This is what Jordan said in CSN article a few weeks ago:
“We don’t expect it to be a major thing,” Jordan said. “Go in, do an evaluation and cleanup. We feel like we’re going to get a lot of innings and work in with Shane this summer.”
With Morgan the statement said he was “losing a year” so that appears more serious. Savery was more serious than we were led to believe, but of course that is why we got a top 10 guy with a lower pick in the first place.
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Okay, but there’s a VERY big problem with your Jordan quote. It is clearly a pre-surgery opinion, not a description of what was actually found in his shoulder. The Savery quote was at least made post surgery. Shoulder surgeries are prone to be more complex and to find more damage than was initially thought. Do you have a post-surgery assessment?
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Im intrigued by the love that some of these national guys are giving to sweaney.
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Me too. I guess he has great defensive talent, but he was a normal-bonus 4th rounder, meaning a lot of teams passed him by 3-4 times in the draft. I think he’s a nice 4th rounder, but his offense seems really iffy. Truly SSS, but his K rate is alarming, he doesn’t walk quite enough, he showed little power, and the BA is dismal. Maybe there is something there that bursts forth this year, but the guy is closer to 30 for me
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Gotta go with Encarnacion again.
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Ditto that.
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And me.
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Watson for me.
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I went with Encarnacion for #21. I’ll trust the scouts who saw him.
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Buchanan he finally made the list. will be in philly when starters go down.
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Encarnacion again.
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I switched to Sweaney from Encarnacion, based on Keith Law’s endorsement last week. At this point, I’ll value the expert opinion of the prospect evaluators over the monetary statement made by Encarnacion’s bonus.
Matt, I see your tweets about Mecias. Partly, I’ve downgraded him because I’m reluctant to rank anyone who is going to miss the majority of 2014 with an injury. Before he went down, there were questions about whether his frame was durable enough to start, and the injury seems to indicate maybe not. If he’s a reliever, I’m not sure he ranks here. Also I wonder whether the injury was related to mechanical issues? I saw some reference to his having kinks in his delivery prior to the injury–I wonder if they might have contributed to his big strikeout numbers, lots of time a weird delivery can create deception that leads to great short-term results for a pitcher, but long-term injury issues.
This is just speculation on my part, but I’d love to hear more from people who saw him pitch frequently.
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Mecias had surgery in June so he should be on a mound in late spring and throwing in games over the summer. Frame is good enough, he does need to add some strength to it, but it is a bigger body than Severino. I am not going to read too much into the elbow, he had already set innings highs in 2013 at age 19, the ligament some times just goes.
I haven’t heard anything about the deception to the delivery being a part of the success. For the most part reports were average fastball, 89-92, but he was more 93-94 last fall (2012). You can see the room for more velocity because there is projection in the body. The slider is fringe average but could be average long term. The killer is the combination of pitchability and an advanced changeup, Eric Longenhagen of Crashburn puts a future 65 on it and notes it has strong screwball actions (this matches reports out of Fall Instructs in 2012)
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Longenhagen, if I recall correctly, was the one who wrote something about his delivery being hinky. Glad to hear he’s coming back this year, I was just going by what’s in the the prospect profile on the site, which says he’s likely to miss much of 2014, glad to hear the prognosis has improved since you wrote that.
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Mecias got favorable reviews last off season. The ceiling is said to be quite high. Let’s see how the recovery goes.
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Watson for me- as many have said, we aren’t really sure of the extent of the shoulder injury and any shoulder issue isn’t good. However, as a #1 pick who looked solid in limited GCL in his first year, I feel like he deserves the benefit of the doubt. I know his Lakewood season didn’t go so well but, hey maybe he thought he was back in Lakewood, California.
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Nobody must have seen drew Anderson pitch or have heard about his upside. He is a rotation guy. He will stay in rotation and is young
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Yeah, the people on this site who read about Phillies prospects every day have never heard of him and you, and only you, have heard the muse and discovered his greatness. Give me a break George!
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He is a #4 starter ceiling that hasn’t pitched in full season ball yet. That is a lot of risk and not a lot of upside. He is in my Top 30 towards the very back and I wrote about him here https://phuturephillies.com/profiles/pitchers/starters/sp-drew-anderson/
It is an interesting guy, but not someone to be worked up over right now
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