Chris Crawford is go to source for all sorts of news and reports on the draft. This year he has launched his own site and is putting out minor league rankings as well. The list is free http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/01/top-14-in-14-philadelphia-phillies/. He also has stated that the Top 3 guys all make his Top 75 overall prospects.
It’s a strange list, as he doesn’t seem to deduct for injuries, even shoulder injuries to pitchers. Also, he seems to overlook Cozens and Zach Green. Frankly, it looks like a list compiled on draft day.
In your top 50 player profiles for 2014 draft….no listing for the Oregon St Beaver’s outfielder…. Michael Conforto. Some think he could be a first rounder.
Okay, so that was before Quinn tore his Achilles tendon and Watson and Morgan actually had their shoulder surgery. I guess I’m just a lot more pessimistic than you are on the recovery from shoulder surgery. I think of the supposedly minor surgery Savery had while still in college and see it as having a good chance to be a career ender, or at least severe career diminisher, as was the case with Savery.
atown….concerning shoulder surgeries for pitchers….I am drawing a blank…but who are/were some pitchers who came back for stellar careers after having a shoulder surgery? I cannot think of any, major leagues that is.
I don’t really get a good sense of seriousness from this article — not as serious as shoulders used to be, worse than ACL or Tommy John. It never really gives recovery percentages or how much of prior ability restored. It talks about a year recovery time.
I’m not really sure what Collier has accomplished – if you’re going to make an argument for him, it would IMO be based more on projection than anything else.
There’s nothing at all wrong with ranking a recent high draft pick with little experience “purely on projection.” In fact, I’d go further and say that even for more experienced prospects, scouting and “projection” can be more important than “performance.”
I’d add that Sandberg’s debut really wasn’t that bad. I’m of course dismissing entirely the SSS low BA. The numbers that count were okay – not superb, but fine for the debut of a somewhat raw prospect.
Not sure who you would rank higher, but a lot of the “performance” players end up getting over rated by readers of this site. And the misses with those guys tends to out number the hits about 30 to one. (The “one” in recent years was Ruf, and even he is still not likely to ever be a major league regular.)
At least he mentions the injuries to Watson and Morgan. His ranking of Quinn and the fact that he doesn’t even mention his injury makes me think he’s not aware of it.
What’s nice is seeing good outlooks for a lot of last year’s picks. I haven’t seen Jan Hernandez mentioned much if at all in the voting here. Maybe we’re overlooking him.
I like some of the risks you took here. I still like Quinn in the top 10 I think his potential to hit and hit with some pop is under valued. The kid has bat speed and will be able to put the ball out of a few parks he will also be an OBP guy and even if he loses a lot of his speed he is still athletic enough to make it in the OF. And let’s face it having this injury at 20 as opposed to 30 something is not as devastating.
Where you lose points with me is Altherr. This kid won’t hit enough to be an everyday player IMO I could be wrong and hope I am. You are looking at another Mayberry with better Defensive value is it. I say that because he is 23 and never played above A ball. Over 1700 PA’s and just a .318 OBP. Hitters hit they don’t struggle to hit in the MiLB, maybe for a half season or at first on a new level but this theory that the light all of a sudden comes on I don’t buy.
Finally while it wouldn’t surprise me if Sandberg is 5 next year I think its a little bullish to put him ahead of Knapp this year but I give you points back for that one.
Jan Hernandez really? SSS or not it was pretty darn ugly but again I like that you step out of the lemming lane and throw up some pointed reasoning for the selection.
Why I don’t like the new layout on this site – I can’t tell what is a response and what is original post. There is too much wasted space in left margin. Original post should sit further to left with responses showing up where they are now.
His ranking of Sandberg is a little aggressive but IMO a year from now it will look a lot better than the fan’s ranking of 18. I haven’t had time to do a complete ranking, but Sandberg would probably be at the back of the top 10.
Phuture Phillies 
Wow, that’s some serious love, especially considering that, aside from Biddle and Franco (and I guess Martin), the top levels are thin.
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And, wow, the unproven and raw Cord Sandberg at 5. He must have Grady Sizemore-like tools.
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It’s a strange list, as he doesn’t seem to deduct for injuries, even shoulder injuries to pitchers. Also, he seems to overlook Cozens and Zach Green. Frankly, it looks like a list compiled on draft day.
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List was compiled in early December. I talk about those injuries in the comment section. Cozens would have made a top 20. Green wouldn’t have.
Thanks for reading,
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In your top 50 player profiles for 2014 draft….no listing for the Oregon St Beaver’s outfielder…. Michael Conforto. Some think he could be a first rounder.
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He’s right there, probably will go on day-one if he has a good year. Like the bat, just don’t think he provides much other value.
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Ok..thanks for the reply.
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Okay, so that was before Quinn tore his Achilles tendon and Watson and Morgan actually had their shoulder surgery. I guess I’m just a lot more pessimistic than you are on the recovery from shoulder surgery. I think of the supposedly minor surgery Savery had while still in college and see it as having a good chance to be a career ender, or at least severe career diminisher, as was the case with Savery.
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atown….concerning shoulder surgeries for pitchers….I am drawing a blank…but who are/were some pitchers who came back for stellar careers after having a shoulder surgery? I cannot think of any, major leagues that is.
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Um, there was um, that guy and, you know, that other one and um…yeah, pretty much no one.
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I guess Johann Santana does not qualify!
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atown….check out this BP article on rotator cuff tears.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15691
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I don’t really get a good sense of seriousness from this article — not as serious as shoulders used to be, worse than ACL or Tommy John. It never really gives recovery percentages or how much of prior ability restored. It talks about a year recovery time.
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Thanks for the clarification. The analysis is more important than the ranking — I found your write ups enlightening
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Seems like a list based purely on projection. Two guys in the top 20 with no proven results (Hernandez and Sandberg)
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I agree. It’s easy to overlook a guy like collier but in reality he has accomplished more than some other guys and is still young enough to improve?
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I’m not really sure what Collier has accomplished – if you’re going to make an argument for him, it would IMO be based more on projection than anything else.
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There’s nothing at all wrong with ranking a recent high draft pick with little experience “purely on projection.” In fact, I’d go further and say that even for more experienced prospects, scouting and “projection” can be more important than “performance.”
I’d add that Sandberg’s debut really wasn’t that bad. I’m of course dismissing entirely the SSS low BA. The numbers that count were okay – not superb, but fine for the debut of a somewhat raw prospect.
Not sure who you would rank higher, but a lot of the “performance” players end up getting over rated by readers of this site. And the misses with those guys tends to out number the hits about 30 to one. (The “one” in recent years was Ruf, and even he is still not likely to ever be a major league regular.)
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At least he mentions the injuries to Watson and Morgan. His ranking of Quinn and the fact that he doesn’t even mention his injury makes me think he’s not aware of it.
What’s nice is seeing good outlooks for a lot of last year’s picks. I haven’t seen Jan Hernandez mentioned much if at all in the voting here. Maybe we’re overlooking him.
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im pleasantly surprised by the ranking of Sweaney. He seems to get forgotten around here, especially since grullon ate up a lot of the GCL reps.
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I like some of the risks you took here. I still like Quinn in the top 10 I think his potential to hit and hit with some pop is under valued. The kid has bat speed and will be able to put the ball out of a few parks he will also be an OBP guy and even if he loses a lot of his speed he is still athletic enough to make it in the OF. And let’s face it having this injury at 20 as opposed to 30 something is not as devastating.
Where you lose points with me is Altherr. This kid won’t hit enough to be an everyday player IMO I could be wrong and hope I am. You are looking at another Mayberry with better Defensive value is it. I say that because he is 23 and never played above A ball. Over 1700 PA’s and just a .318 OBP. Hitters hit they don’t struggle to hit in the MiLB, maybe for a half season or at first on a new level but this theory that the light all of a sudden comes on I don’t buy.
Finally while it wouldn’t surprise me if Sandberg is 5 next year I think its a little bullish to put him ahead of Knapp this year but I give you points back for that one.
Jan Hernandez really? SSS or not it was pretty darn ugly but again I like that you step out of the lemming lane and throw up some pointed reasoning for the selection.
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Why I don’t like the new layout on this site – I can’t tell what is a response and what is original post. There is too much wasted space in left margin. Original post should sit further to left with responses showing up where they are now.
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His ranking of Sandberg is a little aggressive but IMO a year from now it will look a lot better than the fan’s ranking of 18. I haven’t had time to do a complete ranking, but Sandberg would probably be at the back of the top 10.
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