Reader Top 30 #13 – Tommy Joseph

Zach Green coming in at #12, a bunch of new names in the poll now.

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

32 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #13 – Tommy Joseph

  1. It is surprising to me that Joseph has fallen so far in the minds of everyone. He was top 5 last year on most lists. I know he had injuries, but clearly he was either overhyped or people are very severe in their reassessments. He barely played enough to draw any conclusions on his bat last season. I suppose you can downgrade him on the health issue, but it seems a bit extreme to me.

  2. It is surprising to me that Joseph has fallen so far in the minds of everyone. He was top 5 last year on most lists. I know he had injuries, but clearly he was either overhyped or people are very severe in their reassessments. He barely played enough to draw any conclusions on his bat last season. I suppose you can downgrade him on the health issue, but it seems a bit extreme to me.

    1. It’s basically his hitting numbers have never been that great and on top of the injuries making last year a lost one, it threatens the chances he stays as a catcher. He has zero value as a 1st baseman unless he starts hitting in ways that he never has.

      1. I agree with everything you said Christopher. Joseph has tools but little polish. Isn’t good defensively. Isn’t hitting. and even though there are no more home plate collisions, a foul ball or two off the mask can do the same amount of damage. He is a half season away from being a non-prospect.

        1. That’s true. He does not seem to have a 1B bat. We have/had better bats in the minors, who were questionable in quality for a starting 1B. Ruf comes to mind instantly, but so does a guy like Cozens, who need to stick as a corner OF for his bat to be plus. As a catcher, Joseph doesn’t seem mobile enough behind the plate to be a plus defensive catcher. He is good against the run game, but not in blocking bad pitches or catching not so bad pitches. When you watch him you really notice both the passed balls and the good throwing arm.

    2. I don’t think Joseph has ever gotten enough credit around here for being a catcher and being young for the level of competition he was facing. He actually had a pretty nice year in AA if you consider those things, but a lot of people seem to be docking him because of his numbers that year.

      That said, the injury puts a lot more risk into his profile. But is he riskier than guys like Pujols, Grullon or Encarnacion? I don’t think he is, although his ceiling probably isn’t as high.

    3. the health issue is entirely my thinking. once you have one concussion you are more likely to have a future concussion. and he plays the one position where that type of hard contact is likely. it puts his ability to stick at catcher into grave jeopardy and frankly he is a non-prospect for me if he isnt a catcher.

      1. Exactly. This was his third concussion, and it cost him a whole year. At this point, his ability to stay healthy behind the plate is very much in doubt. It’s unfortunate, because he would be one of our top prospects otherwise.

  3. Severino. Warts and all.

    Can we get Samuel Hiciano added to the poll the next time you add a bunch? I don’t need him yet, but he’s in the back end of the 20s for me, ahead of Jia Tromp. ISO over .200 after jumping from DSL to WIL, hit 7 HR in ~160 PAs in the NYPL after having wrist issues earlier in the year. Negligibly younger than Tromp, and they’ll play the same level next year, I would guess. Tromp has OF defense on his side, Hiciano has power on his.

    For reference, Hiciano’s 7 HR were 2 less than Dylan Cozens hit in more than 100 additional PAs – they are the same age. That’s not a comp, btw. Would be ridiculous, but I think no one’s talking about Hiciano because of maybe his K Rate (~25%) or low BA, but he walked plenty as well (11.7%). I’m intrigued.

    1. I’m in the Hiciano fan club too. Not voting for him here, but he’s definitely in my top 30. I went with Andrew Knapp here based on scouting reports. Otherwise, it probably would have been Giles or Mecias. Rupp is coming up soon too.

    2. He’s my breakout guy this year, Brad. I just don’t know who he truly is as a player. I saw the hurt version of Hiciano for a short amount of time and he was less-than-impressive. Saw the healthy version of him for even less time. Obviously, that was quite impressive. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back at Williamsport this year just for regular playing time. I think Tromp is the better overall prospect, but Hiciano’s power is intriguing.

  4. I went with Rupp here. Good defensive catcher that is going to be a back up with some power. Has the chance in a few more years to maybe develop into more.

  5. Giles for me. 100 mph fastball with an invite to camp. I think he could start to put it together more this year and really look like a closer in progress.

    1. I went with Giles as well, with the same logic you provided. His upside could have him much higher; the likelihood of meeting that upside is not great. Put the 2 together, and I feel you have a guy that is appropriate for the 12th pick.

    1. I have a string of the younger guys coming up on my list. Grullon, Sandberg, encarnacion, pujols, hernandez, and pullin all grouped together. I have some of the older guys like perkins, joseph, morgan, collier, and milner coming in after them. Knapp and mecias I have somewhere between the two groups.

  6. I have to go Joseph here. I know he had some serious injuries and didn’t play well when he did play last year but I think there can still be someting there. In my mind he’s a true Wild Card for the system. Last year he was a top3 prospect by most. Now he’s not even top 10. If he can get back and prove himself the Phils may still have their Catcher of the future. Of course, the concussions are a big concern but the reports have been good so far this offseason on Joseph and the Phils are giving him another shot at catcher. I’ll give him the benefit that last year was more about the injuries than his poor play.

  7. I went with Encarcion now as the start of guys with very high upside but no results (Sandberg, etc). The problems with Joseph are he hasn’t hit as a Phillie plus he might be a foul tip concussion away from being a gym teacher and that would be a shame since he seems to have a lot going for him. At this point, he and Knapp are even for me. Grullion is close too.

    1. “Ace” of the low-A team isn’t exactly high praise when it is because there were injuries and set backs to the better pitchers. Anderson is a nice little pitcher, at best it is two plus pitches and an average third pitch. He is a pitchability RHP with a decent enough fastball and three pitch mix. In the end he is a Jonathan Pettibone starter kit (if you replace plus changeup with plus slider), that is good enough to make a Top 30 if you like it (and I do). But he is not someone who is going to excite people this high on the list.

      1. I agree with you a lot. Was just thinking top 20- top 25 for him. Some story though of being such a low pick. Anderson has really improved and nobody pitches with his fastball better than him. Thanks for all your writing matt !!

  8. Severino due to proximity. I always like guys with some pitching awareness. He could flame out like Hyatt, but I’ll go with the good stats for young guy and hope it continues.

    If I had to guess on the ultra young guys, I like Grullion. Stud defensive profile almost assures he will stay at C and promote through the system regardless of the bat. If the bat is anything he becomes a major league backup. If that is his floor, he seems like about #5 on the poll. (Similar to Tocci, I guess.)

  9. Went with Severino. Questions about his fastball and durability, but his velocity is at least acceptable, and other pitches plus control are exceptional.

  10. I voted for a catcher. Not Joseph, who’s concussions scare me. Not Rupp, who still profiles as a back up. Not Knapp, who’s injury scares me. Not Gabe Lino, although he’s an interesting prospect. I went with Grullon.

    I once had Lou Marson as my top prospect. I hope he can kick start his career back in Philly. It just goes to show how difficult catching on as an MLB catcher can be. Brian McCann and Chooch’s contracts show how valuable the good ones are.

    Developing a good backstop is going to be crucial over the next two seasons. Maybe one of these guys will start over Chooch in that final year of his contract.

    1. you are looking too much into the Knapp injury. He has already been in Clearwater for a while and is way ahead of schedule. Will be hitting at almost full strength in March and hopefully will be catching full time by mid-july reports say. You gotta remember , he is a big time athlete.

  11. Next up I voted for Buchanan. I know he’s not highly rated and not on the voting list, but I feel he has an excellent chance to do what most on the list will not do- pitch in Philly in 2014.

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