Reader Top 30 #5 – Carlos Tocci

2014 Reader Top 30

Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez takes the #4 spot and so we move further in to the exercise with #5.  Given that the list is clustered this year I am adding Zach Green, Tommy Joseph,  Luis Encarnacion, and  Ken Giles to the ballot.

Top 30:

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. Jesse Biddle
  3. J.P. Crawford
  4. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

117 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #5 – Carlos Tocci”

    2. Well I like Giles but I think it’s a little high. I brought up if you have Martin high then Giles shouldn’t be too far behind, but I’d still put Martin over Giles.

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  3. Altherr. IF he sticks at center and IF he continues his development from last year he is easily the best left on the board. My bet is he does these things. *Tocci was very close to getting my vote here in my oft humbled opinion. For me, proximity won the day

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  4. Starting to get tough to pick them now, but I went with Tocci. He’s got some tools and an advanced approach at the plate. Still 18 until August.

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    1. Yeah, but it’s not an injury that he’s shown he has recovered from. He did not recovery his velocity after returning this last year – do you understand how critcial this is to his status as a prospect? Morgan is probably in the low teens for me and that ranking is based on the hope he will recover velocity. If he continues to throw 86-88 he’s out of the top 30.

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    2. It is quite common for pitchers to NEVER return to form after Shoulder surgery.
      Until we see he as recovered, he needs to go well down the list.

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      1. Or to return as Savery, from what was described at the time of the draft as a very minor shoulder surgery.

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  6. Interesting to compare our rating of Tocci with that of Freddy Galvis. Both signed young, both outstanding on D, both big question marks at the plate. When I saw Tocci at Lakewood, he looked completely overmatched at the plate, which is why I want to see him stay at that level.

    I decided to back Cesar, he’s going to surprise us.

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    1. I too noticed some parallels between Tocci and Galvis, especially being so much younger then their competition that it is hard to know how much to discount their stats.I always liked Galvis more than most, and now I am going with Tocci. But I think Tocci started as a better prospect than Galvis because he started with more tools than Galvis, like speed and arm strength, and I think Tocci had better plate discipline. Galvis worked to improve his arm strength one off-season, which may have improved the rest of his game too. Surely, Tocci will improve his game with his off-season conditioning programs.

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          1. Apparently the Phillies seem to like a Latin kid or a college guy to be up for the challenge.
            This year, could be a guy like Pujols or Grullon.

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        2. Franco was about to turned 19 during his first trip to Lakewood and spent his full season there as a 19 year old (to tocci’s 17)

          Tocci is the first guy they have given a full season at Lakewood, everyone else has gotten a late season push from WPT or fell back to WPT.

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  7. 5 through 15 is really the weak spot of the system. The top three are probably a little weak compared to most teams, but they’re fine. MAG as #4 is kind of a wild card and his drastically reduced contract indicates he’s an elbow injury waiting to happen, but at least the talent and proximity are there. You can make a rational argument if he’s healthy he’s a league average starter.

    But it’s pretty ugly at this point. I was very high on Tocci last year and followed him closely during the year. I honestly don’t know how you can take anything positive from his performance last year. Maybe the K rate was ok and he’s no doubt at least a future above average defender in CF? That’s about it though. He didn’t hit at all and the plus speed didn’t translate into anything on the base paths. None of this means he’s not a prospect, but I don’t see how anyone can claim he played advanced competition to draw. He was overmatched. I’d guess that if you dropped the 17/18 year old version of most teams’ top 30 prospects into Lakewood last year, they would’ve performed at least as well as Tocci and probably better.

    And yet I have Tocci at 5 because there really aren’t that many other options. He’s going to move up 4-5 slots from our rankings from last year despite having a .510 OPS at the lowest level of full season ball. I would venture that our 5 -15 prospects will almost all be among the 5 worst prospects at their respective slots when compared to other teams’ 5 through 15.

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    1. Positives from Tocci’s year:
      – He had a decent May in Lakewood, hitting .269 / .319 / .327
      – Some good scouting reports
      – Kept his K% under 18%
      – Phillies apparently thought enough of him to leave him at Lakewood
      – Most of his poor performance (especially in July/August) can be attributed to wearing down physically

      But overall I agree that #5-15 are pretty weak because of all the injuries. Tocci would make a very good #8 after a healthy Joseph, Quinn, and Morgan, but I don’t love him at #5.

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      1. Depends on how you look at it, I think. I can think of 15 guys I would be comfortable ranking as our 10th best prospect. So while I agree we’re going to have a relatively weak #5 prospect, we’re going to have a relatively strong #15 prospect.

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  10. And here is where it gets tough , if not for the injury to Quinn or Morgan I think they would be a toss up for this spot but since both have some serious injuries concerns. Im not sure who I like here ,Tocci, Green, Cozens , Gonzalez, Martin, Altherr and Hernandez all probably have some right to this spot , I am really up in the air here , but Im gonna go with Martin , will be a high leverage reliever or possibly closer once the dancing fool goes marching on

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      1. very true, although I think if morgan would have been healthy he would in pettibone’s place and no longer a prospect, but I still am higher on Crawford then I am Quinn so for me Quinn would have battled MAG for 4th but surely your argument has legs and could end up being a spirited debate

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  12. If tocci ends up being our #5 prospect we have a terrible farm system. I get that he is young but .206 with 0 hr and few SB’s. He is gonna have to prove something before I can rank him. Young ain’t cutting it for me

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    2. I agree with this. I understand he was playing a level or even 2 up where he should be but I have to see some type of production before I go this high.

      My vote, after some debate, went with Quinn. He would’ve been an easy choice for me had he not gotten hurt. I debated between Quinn,Morgan(also injury conerns), and Altherr.
      In the end, I decided to stick to my guns with Quinn. I’ll bank on him getting close to where he was before. At least age is on his side.

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    3. So a young kid who should be a senior in HS playing against 19 and 20 year olds being the #5 prospect in the system means the system is terrible? If anything it shows that the Phillies know how to mine talent and should be encouraging, not the opposite.

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    5. Well said, agree. Just because he is 18 years old people like him. His bat is super soft, he has no power , And not a big base stealer. Just a great defender. Way overrated

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  13. I’m praying for a healthy Morgan. You have to hope that an off season of rest and conditioning was all he needed, a year after pitching great and throwing more innings then he has ever thrown. A healthy 24 year old lefty in AAA makes the system a lot brighter.

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    1. Yes. I’d prefer to vote him, who has shown the skills necessary at a high level and health is the only question, than someone who was also unhealthy or someone who has already proven to be a lesser performer when healthy.

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  14. I’m going Severino from here on out. He’s 20, in AA and he dominated last year. He has an ok shot at becoming a mid-rotation guy which is more attractive to me than higher upside guys whose injuries render their chances of reaching their upside remote.

    With Tocci I need to see something performance wise, though I’m excited about the reports/projections

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  16. I’ll have to hold my vote until lunch time when I’ll review it some more. I actually re-ranked my top 15 yesterday because of all the injuries. We all know that 5 – 15 will be interesting because of ceiling vs proximity vs likelihood and the unknown impact from the injuries.

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  17. I went Ethan Martin here. I know that it is a long shot that he stays in the rotation. But his stuff is still electric. He has shown signs of effectiveness at the big league level (mostly out of the bullpen) but having the stuff to make big league hitters swing and miss is what put him at 5 for me.

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  18. Yesterday I made an argument that, with a decent season at the plate next year, Tocci could become the system’s #1 prospect. I convinced myself enough that I decided to vote for him at #5 here, ahead of Martin, who I voted for yesterday. Martin was my #4, but it seems unfair to dock Tocci just because people chose to believe in the mystery Cuban. Martin at #6 will be fine with me–and if it goes that way, it will mean the Reader Top 30 is exactly tracking the order of the Baseball America Top 10, minus Quinn (who was ranked #5 by BA before his big offseason injury.)

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    1. I agree with you. I went Tocci after reading a lot of what the people on this site had to say. I think it may be a little soon, but I could not go with either Cesar or Ethan Martin at #5. Quinn’s speed is a huge part of his game and has to come back healthy, and Morgan has to get back to the 90’s. 88 does not cut it. Not at all sold on Altherr, and may go Knapp or Severino next.

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  19. I am confused about the lack of excitement over Dugan. The guy was a supplemental pick, is age appropriate for his level, and put up excellent numbers with high obp, power and solid fielding. This guy projects as an everyday outfielder and is already in AA. I don’t see any of the remaining guys with his proximity combined with potential.

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    2. You’re right, Dugan is a breakout candidate next year. I have him at the back of the Top 10 but he could easily be #4 at midseason if he puts up good numbers in Reading, as he should. One question I still have is about his ability to stick in right field–for years we heard he was probably destined for 1B, which would basically kill him as a prospect, but he’s been able to stay in the outfield so far. But this is the point in his development where the question stops being “Good enough for now?” and starts being “Good enough?” I don’t know the answer to those questions–still haven’t ever seen him play in person, unfortunately, so I am totally in the dark. Anyone out there got thoughts?

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      1. I’ve seen Dugan. I retired to Clearwater, so I’ve seen a lot of these guys, often. I watched him at every Threshers’ home game and several road games. My seats are behind home plate at Bright House. I mention these things so you can gauge the perspective I have. Dugan looked good in the outfield. He was able to range into the gap and into foul territory to chase down some balls. He seemed to cover a reasonable amount of ground. He also exhibited a strong, accurate arm. I recall a ball hit to right that he had to back up to catch. He positioned himself well and caught the ball moving forward. He put the throw right on the third base bag, and the runner (who had previously stolen second) slid into Franco’s tag. The FSL is considered to be a pitcher’s league down here. However, Dugan was one of a handful of Threshers who hit well last year (along with Franco, Perkins, Stassi, and to a lesser extent Altherr). He showed good power to right field. There’s an Oakley sign on the berm in right. I remember all of his home runs at BH being hit at or over this sign. One cleared the back fence. I know one of the knocks against him is that he was old for the FSL. Sitting behind home plate, I saw his plate discipline. He’s not afraid to take close pitches and work from behind in the count. And he took a lot of close pitches when he had two strikes. This is a skill that should move with him as he progresses through the system. He does have some holes in his game. He has trouble with the low-inside pitch that so many left-handed power hitters crush. And all the power I saw was to right, nothing the other way. While I like him a lot, I think the popular projections of his being a second division starter or, more likely, a 4th or 5th outfielder, are probably correct.

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        1. Dugan reminds me a little of Cody Asche, not as a player per se but just in terms of my feelings about him. He doesn’t excite me. He does a lot of things well but nothing extraordinarily. Despite my suggestion above, I don’t think he’ll ever crack our Top 5 list of prospects. He’s not a prospect you fall in love with. But he seems like he’s pretty solid and I could definitely see him cracking the starting lineup in, say, 2015, especially if the team ends up doing a full-fledged rebuild.

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  20. 771 ops with 10 hr in a little over 200 abs is not bad, he was 22 in AA, that is age appropriate. Wait til this year, it’s all about health with him.

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    1. It’s not that good for a serious prospect. Partly because we get into varying meanings of age appropriate – there is a difference of at least a year in age, probably two, between “the average age for all players at a given level” and “the average age for real prospects at a given level.”

      Now, that said, the real question for me is this: what’s up with plate discipline? His BB rate went from quite good to incredibly poor after the promotion. Contrary to stereotype, I’m not obsessed with BB rates to the exclusion of all else, but, combined with his other skills, he’s a very interesting guy with a good BB rate – and a non-prospect with a low BB rate.

      FWIW, though, the Oliver statistical projection system likes him – projecting him as an average major league hitter – for 2014.

      He’s certainly a player worth watching. He could break out this year and become a real prospect. IMO he isn’t that quite yet.

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  21. Really tough choice here… there’s not a single guy who really stands out at 5. I might go SG… only becuase he actually put up numbers, but his velocity is questionable (and no i don’t give a shit about his “frame”). Tocci while really young at a high level, and having good scouting reports, failed to produce a single above average statistical reference.

    The rest of the guys in competition for this spot have significant performance affecting injuries.

    Not sure what else there is to stay, excited about the top 4, everyone else… meh

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  22. I voted Cozens. It’s close here. I think some order of Encarnacion, Dugan, Tocci, Martin, and either Gonzales/Giles/Guillon/Rupp to fill out top 10. It is not a strong bottom of the top 10, but I’ve bumped Morgan/Watson/Quinn out of the top 10 due to injury.

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      1. That would be zero sample size, which is the same as for MAG. Then there are the hitters like Jan Hernandez and Sandberg, for which there is a sample, but the results aren’t good.

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  23. What about Sandberg and Knapp? Not for #5, but I definitely see them in the mix with your “fill out the top 10” group, as well as Dugan, who I would rank below Cozens/Encarnacion/Tocci/Martin. (And I guess add Hernandez to the “round out” group as well).

    Oh, and let’s not forget Zachary Green. IMO there’s about a dozen guys that are really close 5 to 15 or so, even throwing the injured guys out (and I think you need to start thinking about ranking some off those guys in the mid teens as well).

    While I agree that 5 to 8 in the system are a little weak, I think the back of the top 10 and the teens (as well as probably the 20s) are actually fairly strong. It’s a shame that we “lost” some of our top prospects in Watson/Quinn/Morgan, but they are still pretty high upside guys (though very high risk) for players who will be in the mid-teens.

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    1. I have Zach Green coming up pretty soon. Above Cozens. I agree about the depth of the system; we’ll have some interesting guys to pick from in the teens. Unfortunately, some of those guys are only in the teens because of injury and would be higher otherwise. This might be the most difficult stretch of rankings we’ve done since this site started up.

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    2. I think I’ll have Green and Sandberg around mid teens. Green Ks an awful lot and there seem to be differing views on where he will wind up defensively. I know I’m in the minority here, but I probably slot Knapp closer to 20. His injury problems have really impeded his development as a catcher and from what I read, he wasn’t an especially polished collegiate catcher. I think both Hernandez’s ahead of Knapp for me. I’ll probably end up being wrong, as Knapp progresses through the farm slowly for his age and does a Ruiz.

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      1. I exaggerate. I guess Knapp is ahead of Jan Hernandez, who Ked a ton, although I really liked Hernandez on draft day. Hernandez and Sandberg, in slightly different ways, both had bad offensive starts in GCL. Let’s hope they are both breakout targets next year. I always tell myself to ignore good or bad GCL starts, but it’s difficult in practice. I think you are correct about our 10-20 guys being relatively strong. Really, 5-20 are all bunched fairly close together, a lot more closely bunched than normal. They are basically all realistic hopes and prayers who are either hurt or yet to establish themselves as true age-appropriate performing prospects or who have a big hole in their game. That’s better than years past when you got toward 20 and there just wasn’t any realistic hope for the guy you slotted there.

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        1. Really, 4-20, since MAG is such an iffy guy due to health and not pitching competitively for years. A solid top 3 and then a ton of interesting, promising, perhaps average prospects.

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      2. I hear you on Green, but I think the counter argument there is that, but for the K rate and concern about where he ends up position wise, he would IMO be an easy top 3 choice, or top 4 at least. So the question becomes just how much you dock him for those two things. IF (big if I admit) he sticks at third and can at least keep the K rate somewhat in control (obviously it will always be a weakness), he could develop into a pretty darn good player.

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        1. Yeah I agree here. And from what I’ve read it seems like he has the tools he needs at 3B, he just needs to put them all to use. His profile on this site says he could be a plus defender.

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          1. I stand by that. The actions could use cleaning up but you can see a good defender there, the arm is plus and accurate. He isn’t a slug, but speed won’t be an asset. The question is the hit tool. The bad speed and swing are average at best, right now he can’t deal with anything that spins and if he is behind in the count he has not chance if they throw him breaking pitches. Optimistically the hit tool is a 50 at best, and with 70 raw power (likely playing closer to 60) that is a really good player. The problem is if the bat is more a 40 or lower the power is now suddenly playing more as a 50 or so and that profile is a fringe bench bat at best.

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  24. I hope that mid-Summer we are all talking about Morgan/Quinn/Watson and their full recoveries from health issues. That, with the 1st 2 picks in June, would be a huge boost to the system.

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    1. I’ll be really happy if Quinn makes a good recovery and one of Morgan or Watson returns to full healthy. I’m not bullish on them because these are shoulder injuries. Speaking of shoulders, I’m also curious about what’s going on with Pettibone – his injury sounds less serious and I hope it is – there’s a lot to like with Pettibone.

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  25. After the top 4, there’s really not much difference or dropoff between guys around the 5 slot and those who will be around the 15 or 16 slot. We’ve got lower ceiling guys who are closer to the majors (Hernandez and Dugan for example), lower value relievers (Giles, Wright), and higher ceiling young guys who carry a ton of risk (Green, Cozens, Tocci, Gueller, Watson, Knapp).

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  26. I went with my gut here. If the Phillies were to deal 1 prospect, who would I be saddest or angriest to see go (sad or angry depending on the return). Of the prospects remaining to vote for, I would definitely miss Tocci the most.

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  27. Funny Gonzalez is #4, we really have no idea what he is. I am hopeful but I couldn’t vote for someone that hasn’t played in 2 years or so and never seen either way

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    1. We have no idea what most of these guys are. Especially the ones in short season leagues or coming off of significant injury.

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  28. This was a tough one for me. I previously had Quinn 5th but I’m scared by his injury, I love Martin’s arm but only as a reliever, Tocci hasn’t shown me anything other than great instincts and a great glove (and if you’ve seen him, you would understand that he has a long way to go physically) I had Dugan 5th yesterday but I just can’t get past the fact that I don’t think his upside is that high so it comes down to Cozens and/or Green for me at 5 and 6. I decided to choose Cozens for 5 because I think he has a huge upside. Green does too and they’re close in my mind but I went with Cozens who was chosen ahead of Green in the draft. I feel like both these guys definitely have a chance to be very good major leaguers. If LGJ can improve this year, and reports were that he did well in the Instructs, the LWood lineup will be a fun one to follow with Pullin, Crawford, Green, Cozens, LGJ, Tocci, Lino and probably Oberto. That’s a lot of talent to follow.

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  29. I don’t understand ranking Tocci 5th in the system. I think the age/level argument is getting blown out of proportion here. It’s not as though he had a good year. Of course you don’t expect many 17 year olds to put up good numbers at Lakewood, but he’s getting way too much credit for just showing up. And his tools are not off the charts. He is a good defender, with above average speed. He needs to put on at least 20-30 lbs to be a real prospect, and until he puts on some weight and produces on the field to some degree, I just don’t understand ranking him this high.

    Another way to look at it is what if he was drafted last year? Yes he was 17, so he was a year younger than other high school draftees. But anyway let’s say we drafted a CF last year who was 6’2 160 lbs, and he went to Lakewood (obviously wouldn’t happen) and he hit .206 and had 6 steals in 118 games. Again obviously it would be unrealistic to expect great numbers, but I think most of us would come away from that season saying he has promise and he could develop. No one would say “he’s top 5 in the system, I don’t care if his numbers weren’t good, he was young for the league”. I’m just saying that if he was not signed as a 16 year old international free agent people would not be hyping him up as much as they are. Let him do something, anything before you declare him a top 5 prospect.

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    1. Well, he has done ‘something, anything’. He’s played a great defensive CF. He had a reasonable K rate. He did bat above Mendoza. The guy we have at #4 really hasn’t done anything, not being able to even throw off the mound at the end of FIL, but we picked him at #4 based on scouting and promise and what he showed in Cuba several years ago. That is the nature of our guys after the top 3. They are all promising hopes and prayers, but very flawed for one reason or another on what they have shown or are at this point of time. There have been arguments made for Cord Sandberg in the top 10. His scouting report out of the draft is very promising, but his hitting at GCL at age 18 is not much different than Tocci’s at age 17 at Lakewood. When Tocci was in the GCL at age 16, he put up better numbers than either Jan Hernandez or Sandberg did this year at age 18, so that is the comparison to a HS kid from this year’s draft. I say this as someone who didn’t vote Tocci at #5, but plan to do so in the next two rounds.

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      1. he has not done ‘something, anything’ to be ranked in the top 5. He showed up and didn’t embarrass himself. And I’m not saying that he can never be in the top 5 of a system, but he has no present good tools other than his defense (I’m not downplaying that). If this was a guy who was doing what he is, at his age, and he was a physical marvel it’d be another thing. It’s not as though he has elite speed or great bat speed to say that man if the stars align he is going to be special. Like I said before he needs to add significant weight to be a real prospect and adding that weight could effect his swing as well as his speed (which was exaggerated pre-signing). Ranking him this high would be like drafting a pitcher with good secondary stuff who throws 86, but who scouts feel has the ability after adding strength and working on mechanics to tick up to 93-94, and ranking him in the top 5. When it starts to tick up then great, rank him accordingly. There are always questions with prospects and you never know, but for me I think there are way too many questions regarding development of tools as well as physical development to rank him this high.

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        1. I understand what you are saying, but where would you go with #5? It is all mostly a guess on a guy like Tocci, but in ranking the system, a lot is hope and prayer. The guys I would pick ahead of him are all injured.

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        2. Correct me if I am wrong, but Tocci turned 18 in August. In some states in the US he could be entering his senior year if 1 September is still the cut off for school systems.
          I would wonder where he would be drafted if he were entering the June 2014 draft!

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          2. If you wiped away all of his pro experience, then I would say 2nd-3rd round.

            If he was in the draft with 2.5 year of pro instruction, then he is a middle of the 1st round type player.

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            1. I don’t see it, but I’ll readily admit you know way more about these things than I do. If that’s the case, then he should be projecting as a solid 3-4 WAR annual major leaguer (that’s what mid-first round picks are drafted to do – with a couple of clunkers and a few lotterty winners). I just don’t see that from Tocci yet, but, again, I hope I’m wrong.

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        3. Ah, so ‘something, anything’ is excluding great defense, which certainly is something for an 18-year old playing CF. An 18-year old who lacks strength, but is said to have a nice swing, a good feel for hitting, and a relatively low K rate. These are all things, by the way, that some of our former first rounders (Hewitt!) never had, at any age. And yes, your young pitcher with good secondary stuff and an 86 mph FB that the scouts expect to turn into a mid-90s FB is worthy of a mid-top-10 ranking, especially on a farm as weak as the Phillies’s farm. It is a question of how much you trust our scouting and development staff, who are very high on Tocci. Of course the scouts did love Kyrell Hudson and Hewitt, so they have their own blind spot, but I don’t think the development staff ever raved over either of these guys. And yes, I recognize the irony of writing those last few sentences. Hudson was a stellar defensive CF. He just couldn’t hit. He put up about the same Lakewood numbers at age 20 that Tocci posted at age 18 — if Tocci doesn’t develop some strength and a bigger OPS over the next two years, then I agree he goes the way of Hudson. Still, at age 18-20, two years of age makes a huge difference.

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    2. That would all depend on where he was drafted. And if he went right to Lakewood, you’d have to figure he’d be drafted pretty high. JP Crawford’s numbers at Lakewood didn’t end up much better than Tocci’s and you could make a case that he’s our best prospect.

      I know the surface numbers aren’t there, but some of the underlying stats are promising. He went from the GCL to Lakewood and had the same K%, and his BB% dropped only slightly. Not to mention that he was doing even better early in the season before the grind wore him down. He also improved his ISO while taking that 2-level jump, and he hit more fly balls, which is nice.

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    3. Right now I’m going to go hockey, but Tocci reminds me of Lucas Sbisa when the Flyers drafted him at like 18 and he played in the NHL right away. He didn’t really do anything to look like a future star, but just because of being ‘young’ he got a lot of hype and excuses and ultimately was a piece used to get Chris Pronger. Well he never turend into any kind of quality NHL defenseman, infact he’s not even a regular starting D-man often bouncing between the minor leagues and NHL.

      Youth doesn’t last. Eventually you have to show results. This year isn’t a “make it” or “break it” year for Tocci, but it certainly begins to slide that way now that he’s reached the same age as drafted HS players.

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  30. Dugan again. The power is real and demonstrated. The OBP skill set is there he just need to get back to it and realize that is the key to getting pitches to put over the wall. I see a lot of Adam LaRoche in him when I watch his swing but a much better athlete to stay in an OF corner.

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    1. The guy I think of is David Justice. Long, rangy, somewhat athletic, can play first or corner outfield, decent plate discipline, nice bat speed, late bloomer.

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      1. Kelly Dugan/David Justice? The only thing they could have in common is that David Justice was married to Halle Berry, and Kelly Dugan’s Dad may know her because he is a Movie Producer/Director.

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        1. I’m not saying he’s that good or is likely to project that well as a prospect – that’s a reach ceiling. I’m saying he’s that model of baseball player – that’s what he becomes if everything goes right. Obviously, if we thought now he was going to become David Justice he’d be the number 1 or 2 guy in the system.

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          1. By the way, nobody at the time thought that David Justice was going to be as good as he ended up becoming. I believe he was exposed in the Rule 5 draft before he went nuts in 1991. His minor league numbers, like those of Dugan, showed flashes of promise, but he was never an elite or even top prospect. If I had to guess, I would say that he was probably never better than 6 or 7 in the Braves system.

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            1. A later in his career, even in Moneyball the A’s staff thought that he was overated aged veteran…….but he had what,as Brad Pitt says pointing to Peter Brand? The OBP.

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      2. Justice really not a late bloomer. He was in the bigs at age 23 and playing fulltime with a .900+ OPS at age 24. That puts Dugan at least a year behind Justice in development.

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        1. Not entirely true. Justice was lightly regarded as a prospect and left exposed in the Rule 5 draft. His numbers were, at times, better than Dugan, but he didn’t have the two years of fighting injuries that Dugan has had. Since he’s been healthy, Dugan has proceeded quickly through the system. And, if you think David Justice was baseball gold, check out his really crappy AA season at age 21 – he hardly looked like a future major leaguer at that point.

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          1. In any event, in the familiar vein of folks taking one or two stray comments out of my posts and attempting to re-cast what I wrote – I NEVER SAID DUGAN WAS AS GOOD OF A PROSPECT AS DAVID JUSTICE OR THAT HE IS GOING TO BECOME DAVID JUSTICE. I said he’s that style of player, which is entirely accurate.

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          2. What? Check out Justice’s crappy year in AA at age 21? Kelly Dugan was still in Low A, at age 21. There is no comparison. Kelly Dugan has played 5 minor league seasons, and hasnt graduated AA yet.

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            1. OTOH, Dugan sill has approx 700 more PA s to get to before he reaches DJ’s final minor league PA totals.

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            2. That’s not because Kelly Dugan had no ability but because his minor league career was held back by injuries. Once he was healthy he made progress very quickly. That’s an unfair comparison. The PA comparison is more appropriate.

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  31. Quinn though I might drop him some when we see if he can come back 100% from his injury. It helps him that he is so young with this type of tendon injury.

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    1. I love Quinn but do you have any idea how bad he was hurt, listening to a post by larry, it seems that its career ending. or maybe I am reading it wrong. I loved that he had speed and could be a top of the order guy.

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      1. It’s the same injury Howard had. Players do recover from it, and obviously it’s easier to do so at a young age. But for a guy whose game is based so much on speed, it seems to me to be a big deal. If he goes from plus plus speed to just plus speed, I’m just not sure the rest of the skill set is enough to suggest a career as a major league regular without plus plus speed. The difference between plus speed and plus plus speed is enormous – not just on the base paths, but in terms of defense and ability to get infield hits.

        Add to that a year of development lost for a kid who is either going to have to make huge strides at SS or face a position change.

        I don’t think I used the term career ending. If I had, it would have been the wrong term. I think I said it might end his status as a real prospect, which is quite a different thing. And maybe even that a tad exaggerated. But let me ask this – not a rhetorical question, I do not know the answer – are there examples of players whose game was based on speed who suffered this injury at a young age and fully recovered?

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        2. That’s what had me so excited plus plus speed, I was hoping he would be that guy who could get on base and steal and get those what I call cheap runs, walk, steal second bunt to third, get home on fly or groundout. love those types for top of order,

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          1. It is the type of injury, especially in a young, athletic guy where 100% recovery is possible. Of course it could also be 70%-80% where Quinn’s 80 speed becomes 60 speed. If that happened he would probably have to stick at SS or 2B rather than CF to be an above average major league regular. With 80 speed his offense could play very well in the OF.

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  32. Matt Winkelman @Matt_Winkelman

    When it comes to discussions of the Phillies system it seems like people either have Tocci in the Top 5 or out of the Top 20, no in between

    I don’t know if I agree with that sentiment. He’s definitely in my top 10. I bet he’s in a lot of people’s top 10s.

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    1. I don’t think it’s that polarized–Baseball American has him at #6, so it’s not like it’s just wishful thinking. They are pretty rigorous in their evaluation.

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  35. I continue to believe in the ‘hit’ tool for Tocci. Unless a position player is a stud defender at either C, SS, or CF the bat has to play. If Tocci does not get any more powerful than Revere he still might be a 5th OF because he does have great defense. I am still unsure of Tocci’s speed though. If he can hit like C.Hernandez I think Tocci can be a starter CF. If he developer power on top of that watch out.

    Of the prospects left besides C.Hernandez who has the best hit tool? Because I am willing to update my rankings basesd on that one tool.

    I agree that the system is barren in these 5-10 spots due to injuries. Quinn (I still have him high as CF now), Morgan (shoulder for me should drop him out but only 10 in this system), Joseph (off my list, no catcher=no career), and Watson (who could have cracked the Top5 if he was a stud this past season) are down and maybe out. Leaving Tocci (young), Cozens(defense), Serverino(small), Cesar(not at SS), Dugan(AA stats), Ethan (reliever) in my next tier.

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    1. Join Knapp on the list of prospects not likely to play at all in 2014 or until late in the season. Knapp probably gets back first and DH’s even if he’s not playing the field.

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    2. I don’t think Watson’s is as bad as Morgan. I may remove Morgan from my top 30 after this, it’s that big of a deal. I do believe Knapp will be able to DH for quite a bit of a season.

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      1. I’ve not read anything that suggests that Watson’s injury/surgery is less serious than Morgan’s. He didn’t pitch after July 4th. Like Morgan, after resting his arm, he was still unable to throw. I believe he spent FIL long tossing with MAG.

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        2. Watson said in an interview with Jay Floyd on the PhoulBallz site, three weeks ago, that if the procedure goes well he should be fine and ready to go in three months.
          Hopefully the procedure went well.

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