104 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #4 – Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez”
I’m going with Dugan here Quinn next. Dugan has real in game power and a knack for OBP. I see him as a 20-25 HR guy to go along with 25-30 doubles with avg to slightly above avg defense in a corner spot.
I can see him in Philly in 2014 at some point platooning with Byrd.
It would be interesting to see how many people go with MAG high on the list and also criticize the FO for not being able to evaluate talent (not saying you’re one of them).
I just keep seeing people comparing player X to the equivalent of a 3/$12M contract, so they would presumably be ranking MAG based on that contract – being that there’s nothing else to go on.
There was plenty of scouting to suggest he was worth a very large contract. It would seem medical concerns are what landed him the smaller contract, and while I’m not amped up to see him blow out an elbow or anything, I’m of the mindset that barring injury, his ceiling is a mid-rotation starter as of the start of 2014 season. So yes, there’s an injury concern, and a big one if it dropped his contract from what it was (can’t recall, 4-5yr/45-48M maybe?) to what it is now. But I’m looking at proximity and ceiling and I can’t rank him lower than say, Carlos Tocci, who is years away from hitting what I would call the neighborhood of a similar ceiling, a solid but unspectacular regular big leaguer.
I could almost buy Ethan Martin here ahead of MAG, because the argument would be easier to make. Martin is also a big leaguer in April if the club wants him, has a chance to be a starter, though I think less than MAG, and has a chance to be a stud reliever, moreso than MAG, and with no known injury concerns. I could see that weighing toward Martin in some people – it just doesn’t for me, and as it stands, I still have Martin just behind Tocci.
I’m with you. I put MAG here. This placement seems to draw the right balance between, proximity, perceived upside, more advanced age, injury risk and undemonstrated ability.
If MAG makes it here, I’ll probably go with Roman Quinn with my next pick. He still has tremendous upside if he can retain most of his speed. But he needs to get back on the field and strat making real progress. I predict that, with his needing to get offensive momentum and Crawford now in the system, he’ll be shifted to centfield. Yes, it’s down on the defensive spectrum, but not that much and it gives him some time to focus on the offensive side of his game, which is difficult enough with him learning to switch hit. Good God they threw a lot of stuff at this kid and the injuries haven’t helped.
Agree on MAG and that the next pick is tough. Would have been Quinn before the injury but just not sure. Tocci’s lack of tools is hurting his standing for me too. He seems to only have average speed and no power is yet evident. His ceiling is thus lower than we thought even if he becomes a .300 hitter that plays a good defensive CF. He might end up being Ben Revere without as much speed.
Lack of tools? This website says that Tocci’s speed is a grade below elite.
He has a plus arm and is an above average fielder with potential to become near elite,
Hit For Average: 50/60
Hit For Power: 20/40
Fielding: 55/70
Throwing Arm: 60/65
Speed: 70
That is 3 plus tools with hitting potentially being a 4th. The profile was last updated on 3/10/2013. Do you think that it was wrong or that it needs updating based on his 17-year-old season when he advanced to full season A-ball with 20+ year-olds?
I rank Crawford, MAG and Tocci in a tight cluster but in that order.
I am working on updating those (I know much more now than I did then), right now I would grade him out as:
Hit – 30/60
Power – 20/35
Fielding – 55/65
Arm – 55/60
Speed – 60/70
It isn’t quite as nice but they are also really in flux right now as it isn’t just the hit and power affected by his growth.
Hmm, Matt, with the rave reviews of his fielding and the questions raised last season about his speed I would have expected those two grades to be reversed.
A 65 defender is CF is really special. It is a borderline GG candidate every year and a ton of value. As for the speed I am betting on him getting faster, he isn’t a burner (more a glider), but he is going to put on leg muscle and get faster and stronger.
In terms of defense overall, as I go through my Top 30 prospects I have 5 guys with 60 or better grades for their glove projection and Tocci is the only 65. As for the other they are Grullon, Crawford, Sandberg (LF), and Canelo
Tocci’s speed has been listed more in the 50-55 range of late. Forget which site posted that but it is not like he is using any speed offensively now. That might affect his defensive projection. He also does not really draw walks, so his entire worth at this point is batting average. I still like Tocci, but the more questionable tools put him around 10th on my list.
I went with Quinn here, even though I believe MAG will be the pick, simply because I have a better idea of what Quinn can do (pre-injury) – there are too many questions regarding Gonzalez right now.
Are the scouts as high on him after his TJ surgery? Yet another prospect with a health question mark. I liked him a lot when he was drafted, but how far does he drop now?
I would think he can DH somewhere for a few months while he rehabs the throwing arm. Developing his hitting is a pretty big deal. I’d expect he’ll do this at Lakewood.
Went with MAG here on the hope that he turns out to be healthy and a #3. Next will be a problem and shows a weakness in the system in that Quinn and Morgan have to show that they are over their injuries and their really is not a next guy. Tocci is too far away, so it might have to be Hernandez.
What do we do with Cesar Hernandez? His floor is major-league utility infielder. His ceiling is bit over replacement everyday 2b. Maybe 5 or 6? Tocci seems on track to be a Ben Revere. If you’ve seen him, he’s very smooth in center field, but so thin its hard to imagine him developing much power. Since he hasnt shown a hit tool yet, his floor is a 6th outfielder, owing to his defense.. Altherr has a higher ceiling I think because of a bit of demonstrated power and cf plausibility but lower floor than Tocci. Quinn is similar to Tocci in prospect term because of the speed tool, but cant tell if he’ll stick on defense. Very hard to order these 4. Cozens and Dugan dont seem to be up-the-middle types.
If that evaluation of Hernandez is correct (many people around here will say that you are selling his ceiling way short; even I think the ceiling is a tad higher), and if he is 5th or 6th in the system, then the system is in bigger trouble than we thought. I do understand that the floor and proximity factor into this, but we have at least 15 players with a higher ceiling than that, probably more, even if most of them have lower floors.
I haven’t put together a systematic list, but I think he falls somewhere between 8 and 12. I think his ceiling is an average second baseman. But more likely is a bench player, and, in contrast to average regulars who have more value than most people realize, bench players typically don’t have much value.
Unfortunately Cesar’s floor is that of a 4A guy because he can’t play SS or 3B and his CF play was barely passable last year. The utility guys have to play SS. I happen to think his ceiling is a 300 hitting everyday 2B with steals.
I’d agree with all of this. He may be able to play Short in an emergency, but pretty much in the same way Frandsen, Michael Young or Valdez could, not all that well due to his arm. Teams don’t tend to carry reserves who can only play one position (aside from Catchers).
Actually, I voted for Cesar Hernandez here after I looked at the possibilities. Our system has all the depth at the unproven, uncharted depth of the low minors, which is all projection. The projection has been muddled by all the injuries. I’d love to put Quinn in here, but he has injured himself seriously in the area of his great speed, so he is not a #4. On to Gonzalez, who probably needs a year in the minors to get a good idea of his proximity. His performance in Mexico with his possible injury makes him all projection also. It left me with Martin, a reliever no matter what the Phillies say about competition in Spring Training, and Hernandez, who could start with many teams who don’t have Utley. Cesar it is at #4. I’m cringing already as we approach #5.
Would he really start at second base for anyone right now? Maybe he’ll grow into that, but is he that now? I’m skeptical.
I’ve said this before, but IF he really was the plus defender at second base that some people think he is, his (as of now) light hitting would be acceptable. But I still haven’t seen convincing evidence that he is that. Someone, in responding to one of my similar posts a couple months ago, did list all such evidence. I found it ultimately unconvincing.
Of course the other argument is that he’s going to be a good hitter, .300 plus BA with speed. I don’t buy THAT either, though he could grow as a hitter, probably will. IMO the best scenario there is probably developing some mid range power and sustaining the improved AAA BB rate of 2013. I don’t see him being a .300 hitter.
It’s MAG here for me. There’s a lot of Quinn talk and I’m dropping him significantly. A speed guy popping an Achilles is like a power guy losing an arm. Morgan and Watson also scare me. My next pick is going to be really tough. A little voice inside my head is whispering Altherr but maybe I’ll have to go with someone like Cesar. It’s very high for these guys but putting Quinn, Morgan or Watson just doesn’t feel right. Tocci needs to add weight or at least show he can bulk up and If Ethan Martin is a reliever then he slides down the list further.
I went with Morgan. This is a guy who was a top 100 prospect last year, and some considered him our best prospect. Yes he has injury concerns but out of all the pitchers left in the system I think he has the best chance of being a strong starting contributor. Out of all the players left I think when healthy he’s the best combination of proximity and upside. Maybe I underrate his injury but I won’t assume his career is ruined until it actually is.
Tocci = last years Foles to me. A guy where you see the makings of a terrific player but you are just waiting for him to prove it in the trials of game play. And when he does the swooning will begin for reals.
Foles was never a freshman at Arizona. Think he was at Michigan State first and lost out to Kirk Cousins so he transferred. Maybe the Foles comparison doesn’t really fit…
the comparison was about how i feel about the player not their career paths or relative closeness to producing. just waiting with anticipation for him to legitimize why i like him and his ability.
MAG for pretty much all of the reason stated above. Correct me if i am wrong but his elbow issue was not from last year or 2 correct? And the last time scouts saw him in Mexico he was pretty impressive. I think he is probably a greater risk of injury than say Biddle but because of time the injury concern is less that Morgan or Watson. So he has superior talent per scouting reports and past performances and proximity is very close. Martin is the only one as close on both accounts but we have seen his shortcomings live and in person. So i think at this point the potential of MAG exceeds the likelihood of Martin ultimately fixing his issues and becoming a mid rotation starter. I do have Martin next.
Reluctantly, I voted for MAG. I don’t think we will see him break camp with the team. I would be surprised to see him start more than 10 games this season. The talk of counting on him to be a #3 in 2014 strikes me as pure fantasy. However, if all goes right he may slide into the rotation by mid Summer but I doubt he’ll match up with most opponents #3s.
Went with Martin over MAG simply because we at least have some info on Martin. Since both appear to max out as #3 starters if everything goes well, I’ll take the guy with some history first..
I see this choice as coming down to Carlos Tocci, MAG and Ethan Martin. I love Tocci’s potential, but I personally have trouble ranking him ahead of two eligible players who have a chance to be mid-rotation starters. If we put Biddle at #2 on the list, and most people project him as somewhere between a 3 and 4 starter in the majors, it seems like we should attach similar value to MAG and Martin, who have similar ceilings. (Of course their floors are a lot lower than Biddle’s, which is why he is justifiably ranked higher.)
So, with Martin, you’ve got a guy with great pedigree (first round draft pick), an up-and-down minor league track record, a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, and a couple of other pitches. Eric Longenhagen, at the time of his debut in August, said: “If he does stick, he’s a back-end starter. In the bullpen, he’s a potential eighth-inning arm with an outside shot to close.”
With MAG, you’ve got … what? When they signed him, the word was that scouts were seriously mixed in their opinions of him. Then the big deal got knocked down to a much more modest $12 million deal. Then he didn’t pitch for nearly six months. Then Amaro started saying things along the lines of, “It’d be great if he cracked the rotation in Spring Training, but we’re not counting on it.” Then there are the injury concerns. The guy has literally not thrown off the mound since he has been with the Phillies. Maybe there is some kind of development master plan at work. But wouldn’t you want a guy who is 27 and has had limited experience in professional baseball to, say, go pitch in a fall league? These seem like big red flags to me. I really, really hope I am wrong. But to slot this guy in as a potential #3 starter and our #4 prospect, based on what–wisps and rumors from Cuba?–seems like wishful thinking in the extreme.
One last thought. I will make the following prediction: if Martin wins this it will look like a silly pick in 6 months. Either MAG will come to camp prove himself to be the second coming of Luis Tiante, or Tocci or someone from further back in the pack–Altherr? Cozens? Pujols?–is going to break out and establish himself as “the best of the rest.” But I think we have to vote on the information we have now, and right now, Martin is the only guy I can say with certainty is a major league player.
I feel like I had martin somewhere around 8-10 last season. Kind of sad he will have moved up to like 4th or 5th after last season where his chances of being a starter have severely diminished and it looks much likelier that he will end up in the bullpen.
I went with Ethan Martin for many of the reasons already stated. Quinn to me is damaged goods, just not real sure all that is going to play out for him in the future.
I see Martin as somewhat similar to Hernandez — high floor but fairly low ceiling.
The bottom line is that marginal players just don’t add that much value, so I’d rather take a high-ceiling high-risk player like MAG, Tocci or Quinn here.
Yeah I don’t get the Martin love. Last summer pretty much showed he wasn’t gonna be a starter in the big leagues. He just doesn’t have control and he legitimately gets fatigued after like 30-50 pitches. I think you could make a case for Hernandez over Martin better.if you think Hernandez is starter quality.
The case for Martin over Hernandez is that a decent bullpen arm is worth more than a utility infielder who can only play second. So even if you think Martin won’t be a starter, he is still worth something, especially because I think Martin has a chance to be a good closer or setup man.
If Martin is an elite high leverage reliever (which I think he is), then his ceiling is 2+ WAR a year. More than that I think if deployed right he could get close to 100 IP a year and be dominant enough in them to be worth at least those 2 wins. That is worth more than a fringe regular or bench player.
He has the potential for that although I still think control issues might get in his way. I think he could be a good reliever I just don’t think he’s a starter. And to be clear I don’t think Hernandez is a starter but guys like Larry have made decent cases that he could be.
I guess this just shows the sad state of our system’s pitching. A guy that was ranked a fair bit lower last year and was rated as maybe a #3-4 starter, basically proved he couldn’t be a starter and he’s moving up our rankings. It’s part of the reason why I cling to Morgan in my rankings. Morgan hasn’t showed his skill wasn’t good enough to be a starter when healthy.
Martin is actually a better pitcher now then he was a year ago. The Phillies made him work on the secondary pitches in LHV, and while his debut wasn’t steller in the rotation (though the surface numbers look worst than the underlying stats, especially the HR rate), he was dominant in the bullpen. Even in the rotation he struckout over a batter an inning in the major leagues.
The thing is with Martin, the delivery is fine (unlike someone like Aumont), the problem has been the lack of sustained velocity, breaking ball command, and lack of changeup. The fastball is fine unless he is overthrowing it to compensate. In the bullpen you shorten the arsenal and let him air it out and you potentially have a top closer here.
Yes the starting chances are lower, but Martin is a better player now than he was a year ago and he has pitched in the majors. (also if you thought he was realistically a starter a year ago, you were dreaming, if he was a surefire starter he would have been #1 or #2)
The team telegraphs the prospects they value by placement, playing time and place in batting order. Im not hung up on Tocci’s numbers, because I realize they placed him two levels higher than they placed Franco at age 17.
I didn’t have a good place to add this, but the report out of Fall Instructs were that Tocci had but on 10lbs as compared to his spring training weight. In other words he has already replaced what he lost during the season and added more.
Additionally if you look at the swing and batted ball types, he is not a Ben Revere type player. Tocci has a real swing, not a slap and run approach. If the HR power doesn’t come this is still a player that is going to be lining it all over the field with plenty of doubles in the gaps. The player probably most similar is a Jon Jay type CF with a much better defensive profile.
It would be. Just for those too lazy to check, from 1975 to 1982 Maddox amassed 28.5 WAR (3.6/yr while averaging 132 Games/yr), was 8/8 on Gold Gloves. He hit .285/.321/.415 over that time period.
Yeah, I think there’s a reasonable chance Tocci is our #1 prospect next season. Scenario: Franco/Biddle graduate with midseason call ups, Tocci starts to hit and ends the season in Clearwater, then the argument becomes he is younger and playing at a higher level than Crawford and possibly profiles as a better hitter. That’s leaving out the #7 pick and ignoring the possibility of someone else like Altherr having a Franco-esque breakout season, but I think it’s a possibility.
Still, that’s next year. This year, can’t rank him above two pitchers who may end up as big league starters very soon.
I went with MAG, a guy fighting for a starting spot this year. Tocci is later for me because his results have not been good yet (although I could see him jumping up the list if he hits better this year), Martin is a reliever to me so he’s later, Cesar isn’t guaranteed to ever be a major league starter (although I like him as a Morandini type of 2B), Dugan is close but I’d feel better if he hit at AA last year, and Quinn would have been my pick here if healthy but now I’m not sure where to put him. Morgan’s shoulder could be career threatening while Watson is also dealing with his surgery. Joseph hasn’t hit and has struggling staying on the field. We have so many IFs. 5 – 15 will be very interesting.
FTR – Jay Floyd’s report about Watson having surgery was refuted by Phillies staff via one of the Philly writers. I am not sure what Watson’s status is right now., aside from maybe “Doubtful, (Shoulder)”.
If you did a study of 19 or 20 year old minor leaguers who had shoulder problems for the better part of a year or more, what percent of them flamed out, or lost significant effectiveness, due to the shoulder problems. I’d bet the number would shock you – I’m guessing it’s 70 percent or more. Shoulder problems are something of a death knell for pitching prospects. So in my head, until I see them back full strength, I’m not even thinking about Watson or Morgan as viable prospects, which is sad since I like/liked both of them quite a bit.
This is so very true, until they are at full health how can you rank them. A pitcher who is able to develop without constant injuries is more valuable in my eyes.I will not consider any of the injury type pitchers in my top 20 including Giles, Morgan and Watson.
The Giles injury was not to his arm, though, it was some kind of lat or oblique strain if I remember correctly. Definitely not in the same category of concern as the other two.
Correct, Giles strained both obliques this year and the Phillies took it slow so he wouldn’t hurt his arm compensating. During that time they worked on his delivery and secondary stuff
So let’s say we have Martin pretty high. Where does that put Ken Giles at? Does he crack the top 10? Ethan martin profiles now as a guy who could be a really good closer as his upside or as Matt said above “high leverage reliever”. So how similar is Ken Giles’ prospect status. Maybe he wouldn’t be able to pitch the 100 Innings that Matt pegged for Martin (I doubt Sandberg uses him like that out of the bullpen but we’ll see) but Giles is still a high leverage guy with some electric stuff.
I don’t think Giles has the same level of secondary stuff that Martin has, and he hasn’t pitched above A-ball yet. I still think of Martin as a significantly better prospect, but it’s possible that they could end up as similar players.
It puts Ken Giles a couple levels behind Martin, as a reliever only, after a pretty unimpressive season marred by injury. To me, he’s somewhere in the 15-20 range. If I thought Martin was definitely confined to a one-inning only role, like Giles, I would suggest he belongs around #10, which is around where we put Aumont last year.
I think they may try Martin as a starter again but his AAA and MLB attempts at it make it seem like it’s not gonna stick. At this point Martin looks like a reliever. A potentially very good reliever, but a reliever.
Martin’s problem is interesting, I wonder if it’s that he runs out of gas after a couple innings, or that his limited secondary offerings mean that hitters figure him out after one trip through the order. Mind you, last year was the first time many of them were ever seeing him, so he would seem to have the advantage first time through the lineup. If it’s a repertoire thing, there’s always a chance that he develops another pitch or improves one of his existing pitches. If it’s an endurance thing, I guess it’s more troubling, but endurance can be built. I wonder what they have him working on this offseason.
Martin could end up being a guy like Madson, who struggled as a starter but really blossomed in the bullpen. But I think he should be given every opportunity to work things out as a starter, especially if next season turns out to be a “transitional” year.
His stuff gets worse as the game goes on. The fastball loses some juice and he doesn’t have consistently good enough control as the game goes on. I would love for him to turn into Madson in the bullpen. Just kind of depressing Martin is our only top level pitching prospect that didn’t have health issues last year.
why is tommy joseph not on this list at all? he is a consensus top 5 prospect in our system if he is healthy.. if Quinn is on here than joseph should be as well.
and because none of Tommy’s skills are even league average except his arm and, if he cant catch no body will need him to throw the ball that much while playing an underwhelming offensive first base, I guess he has some pop but only for a catcher and the lack of foot speed keeps him out of the outfield heck , I would bet Franco beats him in a foot race , maybe not but it would be close
Because Joseph may not be a catcher long term, Quinn’s injury may threaten his career from a tools profile, Joseph’s injuries could affect his career in a long term health way
The rules change on collisions may work to his benefit here. I realize there are lots of other ways for catchers to get concussions, including foul tips, but eliminating the one full-contact element of baseball from the game, rightfully in my opinion, should lower the risk of recurrence considerably.
But we have seen what an Achilles injury did to Howard and how much that took away from his power. Quinns main tool is his speed, which will without a doubt take a toll with his injury, to go along with losing power? That is scary thing to a prospect considered one of our best, Maybe I am not putting enough concern into josephs injury. But I have to disagree with the majority of this board and put more concern into quinns.
Some things with Howard, the first his he is nearly 10 years older than Quinn which is big for injury recovery, second Howard has a lot of weight on that achilles, third Howard came back early, fourth not all of Howard’s problem is the achilles.
Also the sources of power are different, Quinn has strong wrists and a quick bat, Howard generates lower body leverage.
Quinn as a 6 or 7 runner is not as dynamic, but Quinn is not a one dimensional speed guy. His power is at least a 40 raw, he has at least a 60 arm, the swing looks good and can generate good line drive contact from both sides. Yes a slow Quinn is not as good, but he is still an intriguing prospect.
I think the same argument can be made for Joseph that he is very much intriguing, a full time recovery and healthy year this year I think puts him right back in the top 5. I agree that Quinn is still one of our better prospects, but I do think Joseph deserves more love considering what he do when is healthy.
When he is healthy the hit tool has huge questions, the receiving is still a problem. Quinn was a much better prospect a year ago and both are coming off of lost years (though in quinn’s case it is more a lost half of a year in which his peripherals were almost identical)
Joseph is a guy whose career is very much in question. He really doesn’t hit enough to play 1B so its catcher or gym teacher/coach. Who knows, maybe they’ll turn him into a pitcher… Quinn’s injury threatens his career as well. A pure speed guy without it is not a prospect any longer and regaining your full speed after an achillies tear is practically impossible. Can he still be an effective major leaguer with just above average speed? That’s the question. I’m not sure what to make of Watson’s situation while Morgan’s deal makes me question his future very much. The shoulders man, you just don’t recover from the shoulders. The good news I guess is that Knapp should be good to go after his TJ surgery. So much surgery and injury…..
I note that Tocci has put on ten lbs. He really needs to fill out in order to reach the potential we see in him. Ten lbs should have been 15 lbs with more during the coming season with careful monitoring by “experts.” After his two seasons in the pros,this franchise should be aiming at this using the best health techniques which are available…perhaps assigning a Health Guru to him.
It’s about time we see some REAL progress for this skinny kid by doing right by him…
Putting on 10 lbs in 3+ months is pretty impressive for a 17-18 yr old.
What sort of REAL progress are you looking for? Realistically Tocci is 2 yrs away from us having any reasonable idea what type of player he may become, and all of us are really just making poorly educated guesses from afar. And until he is done growing it is probably not a great idea to try and bulk him up too much anyway. Do you really think that with the investments they make in these players that they do not have people working with them health wise?
I just want to add that Joe Jordan as said the Phillies have/had no plan to have Tocci stateside this offseason to do any sort of strength and conditioning. The plan is to let the kid who just turned 18 and played baseball for 8 months this year, to go home and have a mental break being home with family. They likely gave him nutrition and workout suggestions, but he needs the time off right now
hmmmm. Sounds like a dumb idea to me. Are you telling me that, while sitting around and eating and horsing around with his family all day he couldn’t fit in two hours of structured workouts? Give me a break.
Yes, it is different, and I agree that, at 17/18 he shouldn’t be reporting for “work” every day during the offseason, but I really do hope they strongly encouraged him to follow a pretty specific strength and conditioning plan because Carlos becoming much stronger could make an enormous difference in the trajectory of his career.
I’m about ready to start voting Sev Gonzalez. I’m surprised he hasn’t even been mentioned in these comments. He dominated last year and ended in reading at age 20. That’s impressive. I know there are concerns about his velocity but honestly I haven’t seen many concrete reports about it. BA says he touches 94. I just found some random blogger who had him sitting 90 at a game in June. For now, I’m looking at the combination of K and BB numbers, age and proximity and liking what I see.
Gonzalez is definately is someone to keep an eye on. He was dominant last year w/ some wicked numbers.Of course, as you pointed out,people worry about his stuff and in partcular fastball. We’ll have a real good idea this year in AA if he’s the real deal or if he’s just another J.Rodriguez.If he has a good year this year I think most will become believers.
Phuture Phillies 
I’m going with Dugan here Quinn next. Dugan has real in game power and a knack for OBP. I see him as a 20-25 HR guy to go along with 25-30 doubles with avg to slightly above avg defense in a corner spot.
I can see him in Philly in 2014 at some point platooning with Byrd.
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I went with Tocci. So young and showing so much promise. That’s worth the #4 ranking in my mind.
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and so far away from the majors , I do like him though just not here
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This is where I go MAG. We pretty much all agree the top 3 standout and then there’s a gap here. I think this is as good a spot as any for him.
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Ditto with you on MAG.
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concur.
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yes, indeed, smashingly good
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It would be interesting to see how many people go with MAG high on the list and also criticize the FO for not being able to evaluate talent (not saying you’re one of them).
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Are the two mutually exclusive?
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I just keep seeing people comparing player X to the equivalent of a 3/$12M contract, so they would presumably be ranking MAG based on that contract – being that there’s nothing else to go on.
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There was plenty of scouting to suggest he was worth a very large contract. It would seem medical concerns are what landed him the smaller contract, and while I’m not amped up to see him blow out an elbow or anything, I’m of the mindset that barring injury, his ceiling is a mid-rotation starter as of the start of 2014 season. So yes, there’s an injury concern, and a big one if it dropped his contract from what it was (can’t recall, 4-5yr/45-48M maybe?) to what it is now. But I’m looking at proximity and ceiling and I can’t rank him lower than say, Carlos Tocci, who is years away from hitting what I would call the neighborhood of a similar ceiling, a solid but unspectacular regular big leaguer.
I could almost buy Ethan Martin here ahead of MAG, because the argument would be easier to make. Martin is also a big leaguer in April if the club wants him, has a chance to be a starter, though I think less than MAG, and has a chance to be a stud reliever, moreso than MAG, and with no known injury concerns. I could see that weighing toward Martin in some people – it just doesn’t for me, and as it stands, I still have Martin just behind Tocci.
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I’m actually going to argue that below
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I’m with you. I put MAG here. This placement seems to draw the right balance between, proximity, perceived upside, more advanced age, injury risk and undemonstrated ability.
If MAG makes it here, I’ll probably go with Roman Quinn with my next pick. He still has tremendous upside if he can retain most of his speed. But he needs to get back on the field and strat making real progress. I predict that, with his needing to get offensive momentum and Crawford now in the system, he’ll be shifted to centfield. Yes, it’s down on the defensive spectrum, but not that much and it gives him some time to focus on the offensive side of his game, which is difficult enough with him learning to switch hit. Good God they threw a lot of stuff at this kid and the injuries haven’t helped.
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Agree on MAG here.
The next pick is really interesting. A few months ago I was thinking Quinn then Tocci, but now I’m thinking about reversing the order.
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Agree on MAG and that the next pick is tough. Would have been Quinn before the injury but just not sure. Tocci’s lack of tools is hurting his standing for me too. He seems to only have average speed and no power is yet evident. His ceiling is thus lower than we thought even if he becomes a .300 hitter that plays a good defensive CF. He might end up being Ben Revere without as much speed.
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Lack of tools? This website says that Tocci’s speed is a grade below elite.
He has a plus arm and is an above average fielder with potential to become near elite,
Hit For Average: 50/60
Hit For Power: 20/40
Fielding: 55/70
Throwing Arm: 60/65
Speed: 70
That is 3 plus tools with hitting potentially being a 4th. The profile was last updated on 3/10/2013. Do you think that it was wrong or that it needs updating based on his 17-year-old season when he advanced to full season A-ball with 20+ year-olds?
I rank Crawford, MAG and Tocci in a tight cluster but in that order.
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I am working on updating those (I know much more now than I did then), right now I would grade him out as:
Hit – 30/60
Power – 20/35
Fielding – 55/65
Arm – 55/60
Speed – 60/70
It isn’t quite as nice but they are also really in flux right now as it isn’t just the hit and power affected by his growth.
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Hmm, Matt, with the rave reviews of his fielding and the questions raised last season about his speed I would have expected those two grades to be reversed.
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A 65 defender is CF is really special. It is a borderline GG candidate every year and a ton of value. As for the speed I am betting on him getting faster, he isn’t a burner (more a glider), but he is going to put on leg muscle and get faster and stronger.
In terms of defense overall, as I go through my Top 30 prospects I have 5 guys with 60 or better grades for their glove projection and Tocci is the only 65. As for the other they are Grullon, Crawford, Sandberg (LF), and Canelo
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Tocci’s speed has been listed more in the 50-55 range of late. Forget which site posted that but it is not like he is using any speed offensively now. That might affect his defensive projection. He also does not really draw walks, so his entire worth at this point is batting average. I still like Tocci, but the more questionable tools put him around 10th on my list.
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I went with Quinn here, even though I believe MAG will be the pick, simply because I have a better idea of what Quinn can do (pre-injury) – there are too many questions regarding Gonzalez right now.
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I put MAG here. Can Encarnacion be added to the next list, please?
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I was going to add Zach Green next, but I will put Encarnacion in the queue
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I think you should be thinking about adding Andrew Knapp – the scouts are very high on this guy. I will likely have him in my top 10.
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Are the scouts as high on him after his TJ surgery? Yet another prospect with a health question mark. I liked him a lot when he was drafted, but how far does he drop now?
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Knapp will be hitting at full strength in spring training and will be catching in a game by July 1. Don’t worry about him. He is way ahead of schedule
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I would think he can DH somewhere for a few months while he rehabs the throwing arm. Developing his hitting is a pretty big deal. I’d expect he’ll do this at Lakewood.
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Agree with green. Top 10 prospect for sure. Young,big, strong, with big power and good body and good arm as well
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Viva Encarnacion!
EN — CAR — NA-CI-ON!
EN — CAR — NA-CI-ON!
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Viva Encarnacion!
EN — CAR — NA-CI-ON!
EN — CAR — NA-CI-ON!
Let the revolution begin!!!!
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Are we the only two people who find that amusing? I think we may be.
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Most likely yes but does it really matter?
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I’ve never had a problem being odd. It’s my baseline.
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Viva Grullon!
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Tocci here. Glad to see Cozens added. He’s a bottom end Top Ten for me. Really looking forward to seeing him in a full season of ball.
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Went with MAG here on the hope that he turns out to be healthy and a #3. Next will be a problem and shows a weakness in the system in that Quinn and Morgan have to show that they are over their injuries and their really is not a next guy. Tocci is too far away, so it might have to be Hernandez.
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What do we do with Cesar Hernandez? His floor is major-league utility infielder. His ceiling is bit over replacement everyday 2b. Maybe 5 or 6? Tocci seems on track to be a Ben Revere. If you’ve seen him, he’s very smooth in center field, but so thin its hard to imagine him developing much power. Since he hasnt shown a hit tool yet, his floor is a 6th outfielder, owing to his defense.. Altherr has a higher ceiling I think because of a bit of demonstrated power and cf plausibility but lower floor than Tocci. Quinn is similar to Tocci in prospect term because of the speed tool, but cant tell if he’ll stick on defense. Very hard to order these 4. Cozens and Dugan dont seem to be up-the-middle types.
So MAG.
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If that evaluation of Hernandez is correct (many people around here will say that you are selling his ceiling way short; even I think the ceiling is a tad higher), and if he is 5th or 6th in the system, then the system is in bigger trouble than we thought. I do understand that the floor and proximity factor into this, but we have at least 15 players with a higher ceiling than that, probably more, even if most of them have lower floors.
I haven’t put together a systematic list, but I think he falls somewhere between 8 and 12. I think his ceiling is an average second baseman. But more likely is a bench player, and, in contrast to average regulars who have more value than most people realize, bench players typically don’t have much value.
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Unfortunately Cesar’s floor is that of a 4A guy because he can’t play SS or 3B and his CF play was barely passable last year. The utility guys have to play SS. I happen to think his ceiling is a 300 hitting everyday 2B with steals.
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I’d agree with all of this. He may be able to play Short in an emergency, but pretty much in the same way Frandsen, Michael Young or Valdez could, not all that well due to his arm. Teams don’t tend to carry reserves who can only play one position (aside from Catchers).
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Valdez played a pretty good short , he just couldnt hit
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Actually, I voted for Cesar Hernandez here after I looked at the possibilities. Our system has all the depth at the unproven, uncharted depth of the low minors, which is all projection. The projection has been muddled by all the injuries. I’d love to put Quinn in here, but he has injured himself seriously in the area of his great speed, so he is not a #4. On to Gonzalez, who probably needs a year in the minors to get a good idea of his proximity. His performance in Mexico with his possible injury makes him all projection also. It left me with Martin, a reliever no matter what the Phillies say about competition in Spring Training, and Hernandez, who could start with many teams who don’t have Utley. Cesar it is at #4. I’m cringing already as we approach #5.
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Would he really start at second base for anyone right now? Maybe he’ll grow into that, but is he that now? I’m skeptical.
I’ve said this before, but IF he really was the plus defender at second base that some people think he is, his (as of now) light hitting would be acceptable. But I still haven’t seen convincing evidence that he is that. Someone, in responding to one of my similar posts a couple months ago, did list all such evidence. I found it ultimately unconvincing.
Of course the other argument is that he’s going to be a good hitter, .300 plus BA with speed. I don’t buy THAT either, though he could grow as a hitter, probably will. IMO the best scenario there is probably developing some mid range power and sustaining the improved AAA BB rate of 2013. I don’t see him being a .300 hitter.
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It’s MAG here for me. There’s a lot of Quinn talk and I’m dropping him significantly. A speed guy popping an Achilles is like a power guy losing an arm. Morgan and Watson also scare me. My next pick is going to be really tough. A little voice inside my head is whispering Altherr but maybe I’ll have to go with someone like Cesar. It’s very high for these guys but putting Quinn, Morgan or Watson just doesn’t feel right. Tocci needs to add weight or at least show he can bulk up and If Ethan Martin is a reliever then he slides down the list further.
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I went with Morgan. This is a guy who was a top 100 prospect last year, and some considered him our best prospect. Yes he has injury concerns but out of all the pitchers left in the system I think he has the best chance of being a strong starting contributor. Out of all the players left I think when healthy he’s the best combination of proximity and upside. Maybe I underrate his injury but I won’t assume his career is ruined until it actually is.
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Not if he’s topping out at 88 MPH. Huge, huge, huge red flag. Drops him significantly until I see that he’s back to throwing 90-92, touching 93 or 94.
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And Tocci
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Tocci = last years Foles to me. A guy where you see the makings of a terrific player but you are just waiting for him to prove it in the trials of game play. And when he does the swooning will begin for reals.
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Tocci is more like Foles as a freshman at Arizona. A very promising young recruit, but it’s still a LONG way to the NFL.
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Foles was never a freshman at Arizona. Think he was at Michigan State first and lost out to Kirk Cousins so he transferred. Maybe the Foles comparison doesn’t really fit…
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the comparison was about how i feel about the player not their career paths or relative closeness to producing. just waiting with anticipation for him to legitimize why i like him and his ability.
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Given Tocci’s age, he’s more like Foles as a Senior at Westlake HS.
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MAG for pretty much all of the reason stated above. Correct me if i am wrong but his elbow issue was not from last year or 2 correct? And the last time scouts saw him in Mexico he was pretty impressive. I think he is probably a greater risk of injury than say Biddle but because of time the injury concern is less that Morgan or Watson. So he has superior talent per scouting reports and past performances and proximity is very close. Martin is the only one as close on both accounts but we have seen his shortcomings live and in person. So i think at this point the potential of MAG exceeds the likelihood of Martin ultimately fixing his issues and becoming a mid rotation starter. I do have Martin next.
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Reluctantly, I voted for MAG. I don’t think we will see him break camp with the team. I would be surprised to see him start more than 10 games this season. The talk of counting on him to be a #3 in 2014 strikes me as pure fantasy. However, if all goes right he may slide into the rotation by mid Summer but I doubt he’ll match up with most opponents #3s.
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Went with Martin over MAG simply because we at least have some info on Martin. Since both appear to max out as #3 starters if everything goes well, I’ll take the guy with some history first..
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I see this choice as coming down to Carlos Tocci, MAG and Ethan Martin. I love Tocci’s potential, but I personally have trouble ranking him ahead of two eligible players who have a chance to be mid-rotation starters. If we put Biddle at #2 on the list, and most people project him as somewhere between a 3 and 4 starter in the majors, it seems like we should attach similar value to MAG and Martin, who have similar ceilings. (Of course their floors are a lot lower than Biddle’s, which is why he is justifiably ranked higher.)
So, with Martin, you’ve got a guy with great pedigree (first round draft pick), an up-and-down minor league track record, a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, and a couple of other pitches. Eric Longenhagen, at the time of his debut in August, said: “If he does stick, he’s a back-end starter. In the bullpen, he’s a potential eighth-inning arm with an outside shot to close.”
With MAG, you’ve got … what? When they signed him, the word was that scouts were seriously mixed in their opinions of him. Then the big deal got knocked down to a much more modest $12 million deal. Then he didn’t pitch for nearly six months. Then Amaro started saying things along the lines of, “It’d be great if he cracked the rotation in Spring Training, but we’re not counting on it.” Then there are the injury concerns. The guy has literally not thrown off the mound since he has been with the Phillies. Maybe there is some kind of development master plan at work. But wouldn’t you want a guy who is 27 and has had limited experience in professional baseball to, say, go pitch in a fall league? These seem like big red flags to me. I really, really hope I am wrong. But to slot this guy in as a potential #3 starter and our #4 prospect, based on what–wisps and rumors from Cuba?–seems like wishful thinking in the extreme.
So, Ethan Martin by TKO.
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One last thought. I will make the following prediction: if Martin wins this it will look like a silly pick in 6 months. Either MAG will come to camp prove himself to be the second coming of Luis Tiante, or Tocci or someone from further back in the pack–Altherr? Cozens? Pujols?–is going to break out and establish himself as “the best of the rest.” But I think we have to vote on the information we have now, and right now, Martin is the only guy I can say with certainty is a major league player.
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I feel like I had martin somewhere around 8-10 last season. Kind of sad he will have moved up to like 4th or 5th after last season where his chances of being a starter have severely diminished and it looks much likelier that he will end up in the bullpen.
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I went with Ethan Martin for many of the reasons already stated. Quinn to me is damaged goods, just not real sure all that is going to play out for him in the future.
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I see Martin as somewhat similar to Hernandez — high floor but fairly low ceiling.
The bottom line is that marginal players just don’t add that much value, so I’d rather take a high-ceiling high-risk player like MAG, Tocci or Quinn here.
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Yeah I don’t get the Martin love. Last summer pretty much showed he wasn’t gonna be a starter in the big leagues. He just doesn’t have control and he legitimately gets fatigued after like 30-50 pitches. I think you could make a case for Hernandez over Martin better.if you think Hernandez is starter quality.
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The case for Martin over Hernandez is that a decent bullpen arm is worth more than a utility infielder who can only play second. So even if you think Martin won’t be a starter, he is still worth something, especially because I think Martin has a chance to be a good closer or setup man.
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If Martin is an elite high leverage reliever (which I think he is), then his ceiling is 2+ WAR a year. More than that I think if deployed right he could get close to 100 IP a year and be dominant enough in them to be worth at least those 2 wins. That is worth more than a fringe regular or bench player.
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He has the potential for that although I still think control issues might get in his way. I think he could be a good reliever I just don’t think he’s a starter. And to be clear I don’t think Hernandez is a starter but guys like Larry have made decent cases that he could be.
I guess this just shows the sad state of our system’s pitching. A guy that was ranked a fair bit lower last year and was rated as maybe a #3-4 starter, basically proved he couldn’t be a starter and he’s moving up our rankings. It’s part of the reason why I cling to Morgan in my rankings. Morgan hasn’t showed his skill wasn’t good enough to be a starter when healthy.
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Martin is actually a better pitcher now then he was a year ago. The Phillies made him work on the secondary pitches in LHV, and while his debut wasn’t steller in the rotation (though the surface numbers look worst than the underlying stats, especially the HR rate), he was dominant in the bullpen. Even in the rotation he struckout over a batter an inning in the major leagues.
The thing is with Martin, the delivery is fine (unlike someone like Aumont), the problem has been the lack of sustained velocity, breaking ball command, and lack of changeup. The fastball is fine unless he is overthrowing it to compensate. In the bullpen you shorten the arsenal and let him air it out and you potentially have a top closer here.
Yes the starting chances are lower, but Martin is a better player now than he was a year ago and he has pitched in the majors. (also if you thought he was realistically a starter a year ago, you were dreaming, if he was a surefire starter he would have been #1 or #2)
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Tocci. #4. Nobody else close.
He should be a senior in HS this year.
The team telegraphs the prospects they value by placement, playing time and place in batting order. Im not hung up on Tocci’s numbers, because I realize they placed him two levels higher than they placed Franco at age 17.
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I didn’t have a good place to add this, but the report out of Fall Instructs were that Tocci had but on 10lbs as compared to his spring training weight. In other words he has already replaced what he lost during the season and added more.
Additionally if you look at the swing and batted ball types, he is not a Ben Revere type player. Tocci has a real swing, not a slap and run approach. If the HR power doesn’t come this is still a player that is going to be lining it all over the field with plenty of doubles in the gaps. The player probably most similar is a Jon Jay type CF with a much better defensive profile.
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Garry Maddux comes to mind…. that would be an awfully nice result…
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It would be. Just for those too lazy to check, from 1975 to 1982 Maddox amassed 28.5 WAR (3.6/yr while averaging 132 Games/yr), was 8/8 on Gold Gloves. He hit .285/.321/.415 over that time period.
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80% of the world is covered by water, the rest is covered by Garry Maddox.
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Yeah, I think there’s a reasonable chance Tocci is our #1 prospect next season. Scenario: Franco/Biddle graduate with midseason call ups, Tocci starts to hit and ends the season in Clearwater, then the argument becomes he is younger and playing at a higher level than Crawford and possibly profiles as a better hitter. That’s leaving out the #7 pick and ignoring the possibility of someone else like Altherr having a Franco-esque breakout season, but I think it’s a possibility.
Still, that’s next year. This year, can’t rank him above two pitchers who may end up as big league starters very soon.
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I went with MAG, a guy fighting for a starting spot this year. Tocci is later for me because his results have not been good yet (although I could see him jumping up the list if he hits better this year), Martin is a reliever to me so he’s later, Cesar isn’t guaranteed to ever be a major league starter (although I like him as a Morandini type of 2B), Dugan is close but I’d feel better if he hit at AA last year, and Quinn would have been my pick here if healthy but now I’m not sure where to put him. Morgan’s shoulder could be career threatening while Watson is also dealing with his surgery. Joseph hasn’t hit and has struggling staying on the field. We have so many IFs. 5 – 15 will be very interesting.
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FTR – Jay Floyd’s report about Watson having surgery was refuted by Phillies staff via one of the Philly writers. I am not sure what Watson’s status is right now., aside from maybe “Doubtful, (Shoulder)”.
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Watson is having his shoulder reevaluated in mid-January, surgery is still a possibility
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If you did a study of 19 or 20 year old minor leaguers who had shoulder problems for the better part of a year or more, what percent of them flamed out, or lost significant effectiveness, due to the shoulder problems. I’d bet the number would shock you – I’m guessing it’s 70 percent or more. Shoulder problems are something of a death knell for pitching prospects. So in my head, until I see them back full strength, I’m not even thinking about Watson or Morgan as viable prospects, which is sad since I like/liked both of them quite a bit.
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This is so very true, until they are at full health how can you rank them. A pitcher who is able to develop without constant injuries is more valuable in my eyes.I will not consider any of the injury type pitchers in my top 20 including Giles, Morgan and Watson.
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The Giles injury was not to his arm, though, it was some kind of lat or oblique strain if I remember correctly. Definitely not in the same category of concern as the other two.
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Correct, Giles strained both obliques this year and the Phillies took it slow so he wouldn’t hurt his arm compensating. During that time they worked on his delivery and secondary stuff
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So let’s say we have Martin pretty high. Where does that put Ken Giles at? Does he crack the top 10? Ethan martin profiles now as a guy who could be a really good closer as his upside or as Matt said above “high leverage reliever”. So how similar is Ken Giles’ prospect status. Maybe he wouldn’t be able to pitch the 100 Innings that Matt pegged for Martin (I doubt Sandberg uses him like that out of the bullpen but we’ll see) but Giles is still a high leverage guy with some electric stuff.
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I don’t think Giles has the same level of secondary stuff that Martin has, and he hasn’t pitched above A-ball yet. I still think of Martin as a significantly better prospect, but it’s possible that they could end up as similar players.
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It puts Ken Giles a couple levels behind Martin, as a reliever only, after a pretty unimpressive season marred by injury. To me, he’s somewhere in the 15-20 range. If I thought Martin was definitely confined to a one-inning only role, like Giles, I would suggest he belongs around #10, which is around where we put Aumont last year.
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I think they may try Martin as a starter again but his AAA and MLB attempts at it make it seem like it’s not gonna stick. At this point Martin looks like a reliever. A potentially very good reliever, but a reliever.
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Martin’s problem is interesting, I wonder if it’s that he runs out of gas after a couple innings, or that his limited secondary offerings mean that hitters figure him out after one trip through the order. Mind you, last year was the first time many of them were ever seeing him, so he would seem to have the advantage first time through the lineup. If it’s a repertoire thing, there’s always a chance that he develops another pitch or improves one of his existing pitches. If it’s an endurance thing, I guess it’s more troubling, but endurance can be built. I wonder what they have him working on this offseason.
Martin could end up being a guy like Madson, who struggled as a starter but really blossomed in the bullpen. But I think he should be given every opportunity to work things out as a starter, especially if next season turns out to be a “transitional” year.
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His stuff gets worse as the game goes on. The fastball loses some juice and he doesn’t have consistently good enough control as the game goes on. I would love for him to turn into Madson in the bullpen. Just kind of depressing Martin is our only top level pitching prospect that didn’t have health issues last year.
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why is tommy joseph not on this list at all? he is a consensus top 5 prospect in our system if he is healthy.. if Quinn is on here than joseph should be as well.
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Because Joseph’s injury is a lot scarier than Quinn’s.
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and because none of Tommy’s skills are even league average except his arm and, if he cant catch no body will need him to throw the ball that much while playing an underwhelming offensive first base, I guess he has some pop but only for a catcher and the lack of foot speed keeps him out of the outfield heck , I would bet Franco beats him in a foot race , maybe not but it would be close
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Because Joseph may not be a catcher long term, Quinn’s injury may threaten his career from a tools profile, Joseph’s injuries could affect his career in a long term health way
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The rules change on collisions may work to his benefit here. I realize there are lots of other ways for catchers to get concussions, including foul tips, but eliminating the one full-contact element of baseball from the game, rightfully in my opinion, should lower the risk of recurrence considerably.
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But we have seen what an Achilles injury did to Howard and how much that took away from his power. Quinns main tool is his speed, which will without a doubt take a toll with his injury, to go along with losing power? That is scary thing to a prospect considered one of our best, Maybe I am not putting enough concern into josephs injury. But I have to disagree with the majority of this board and put more concern into quinns.
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Some things with Howard, the first his he is nearly 10 years older than Quinn which is big for injury recovery, second Howard has a lot of weight on that achilles, third Howard came back early, fourth not all of Howard’s problem is the achilles.
Also the sources of power are different, Quinn has strong wrists and a quick bat, Howard generates lower body leverage.
Quinn as a 6 or 7 runner is not as dynamic, but Quinn is not a one dimensional speed guy. His power is at least a 40 raw, he has at least a 60 arm, the swing looks good and can generate good line drive contact from both sides. Yes a slow Quinn is not as good, but he is still an intriguing prospect.
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I think the same argument can be made for Joseph that he is very much intriguing, a full time recovery and healthy year this year I think puts him right back in the top 5. I agree that Quinn is still one of our better prospects, but I do think Joseph deserves more love considering what he do when is healthy.
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When he is healthy the hit tool has huge questions, the receiving is still a problem. Quinn was a much better prospect a year ago and both are coming off of lost years (though in quinn’s case it is more a lost half of a year in which his peripherals were almost identical)
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Joseph is a guy whose career is very much in question. He really doesn’t hit enough to play 1B so its catcher or gym teacher/coach. Who knows, maybe they’ll turn him into a pitcher… Quinn’s injury threatens his career as well. A pure speed guy without it is not a prospect any longer and regaining your full speed after an achillies tear is practically impossible. Can he still be an effective major leaguer with just above average speed? That’s the question. I’m not sure what to make of Watson’s situation while Morgan’s deal makes me question his future very much. The shoulders man, you just don’t recover from the shoulders. The good news I guess is that Knapp should be good to go after his TJ surgery. So much surgery and injury…..
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I note that Tocci has put on ten lbs. He really needs to fill out in order to reach the potential we see in him. Ten lbs should have been 15 lbs with more during the coming season with careful monitoring by “experts.” After his two seasons in the pros,this franchise should be aiming at this using the best health techniques which are available…perhaps assigning a Health Guru to him.
It’s about time we see some REAL progress for this skinny kid by doing right by him…
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Same size and weight , at the same age as Garry Maddox.
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are you Garry Maddox ? if so that is awesome !
if not ?
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Putting on 10 lbs in 3+ months is pretty impressive for a 17-18 yr old.
What sort of REAL progress are you looking for? Realistically Tocci is 2 yrs away from us having any reasonable idea what type of player he may become, and all of us are really just making poorly educated guesses from afar. And until he is done growing it is probably not a great idea to try and bulk him up too much anyway. Do you really think that with the investments they make in these players that they do not have people working with them health wise?
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I just want to add that Joe Jordan as said the Phillies have/had no plan to have Tocci stateside this offseason to do any sort of strength and conditioning. The plan is to let the kid who just turned 18 and played baseball for 8 months this year, to go home and have a mental break being home with family. They likely gave him nutrition and workout suggestions, but he needs the time off right now
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hmmmm. Sounds like a dumb idea to me. Are you telling me that, while sitting around and eating and horsing around with his family all day he couldn’t fit in two hours of structured workouts? Give me a break.
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I assume he is working out. That is different than putting him on Freddy Galvis plan to have him Florida under the Phillies watchful eyes
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Yes, it is different, and I agree that, at 17/18 he shouldn’t be reporting for “work” every day during the offseason, but I really do hope they strongly encouraged him to follow a pretty specific strength and conditioning plan because Carlos becoming much stronger could make an enormous difference in the trajectory of his career.
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I’m about ready to start voting Sev Gonzalez. I’m surprised he hasn’t even been mentioned in these comments. He dominated last year and ended in reading at age 20. That’s impressive. I know there are concerns about his velocity but honestly I haven’t seen many concrete reports about it. BA says he touches 94. I just found some random blogger who had him sitting 90 at a game in June. For now, I’m looking at the combination of K and BB numbers, age and proximity and liking what I see.
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Gonzalez is definately is someone to keep an eye on. He was dominant last year w/ some wicked numbers.Of course, as you pointed out,people worry about his stuff and in partcular fastball. We’ll have a real good idea this year in AA if he’s the real deal or if he’s just another J.Rodriguez.If he has a good year this year I think most will become believers.
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