Mid Season Ranking Supplement

Other Stuff

I had these grand plans of a full re-ranking and write-up to fit on all the new prospects from the deadline, but that didn’t happen.  Instead I am going to highlight some guys I think are trending up and guys I think are trending down.  That will be followed be a list of 30 names and numbers that you are free to pick apart but please realize was rendered obsolete at 4pm central time on August 7 when I stopped tinkering with it.  For reference here is the original mid-season list https://phuturephillies.com/2013/06/18/midseason-top-20/

Trending Down:

Maikel  France/Jesse Biddle: Yes Franco went on a tear in AA, yes they are both still in the exact same spots on the rankings, but I think the gap between them and the rest of the system has closed for a variety of reasons.  For Biddle the command is a real worry because the allure was always the safety in the profile, now there are some doubts in whether he does have the high floor we thought he had.  Franco started off red hot in AA but over the past 25+ games his strikeout rate has trended towards career rates while the walk rate remains low, additionally he is not hitting for a ton of power over that stretch.  I have real worries that the swing/approach will continue to limit the utility of the power until fixed.

Aaron Altherr:  The strikeout rate has improved slightly but there are a ton of issues still there.  He missed out on the promotion to AA where it would have been nice to see him get his feet wet.

Mitch Gueller: The stuff isn’t as advertised right now and he looks really raw on the mound.  Not to say he was a bad pick, because there is still plenty to like in the profile, but he is going to take a lot of time to get there.

Hoby Milner: I finally gave in on Milner having some hope as a starter.  I am back out again, the frame and profile just are not going to hold up for a full season.

Roman Quinn/Tommy Joseph/Shane Watson:  You have to play baseball to get better at baseball.  Joseph is the guy plummeting down the rankings especially with the chance he won’t play again this season.  If Watson and Quinn can come back and have a productive couple of weeks they can rebound their stock.

Trending Up:

JP Crawford: Not much to say here other than he is gotten really close to the top 2 guys.

Dylan Cozens/Zach Green: They are doing exactly what they should be doing in short season ball.  I worry about Cozens’s defense and I worry about Green’s hit tool.  Tie goes to the guy whose hit tool I like better.

Kelly Dugan: There are still some walk and strikeout concerns in AA, but I want to give him more time before worrying about it.  Dugan has turned himself into a solid corner OF prospect who should give solid defense and pop.  He could be ready by mid-2014.

Jose Pujols/Deivi Grullon: The season numbers are a little bit ugly but both have had their numbers trend up over time.  The scouting reports on both have been very positive and the numbers aren’t showing any glaring red flags right now.  I really like Pujols who has really started to tap into his power recently while not striking out at an unreasonable rate.

Nic Hanson/Severino Gonzalez: Both lack an overpowering fastball but provide some interesting tools in their arsenal.  When he is on Gonzalez while show advanced control and plus curveball, Hanson brings a fastball with good plane, but the scarier weapon is a promising sinker that he gets on top of with his 6′ 7″ frame.  At best they project to be back end starters, but that has some value to a major league organization.

A List of Names:

  1. Jesse Biddle
  2. Maikel Franco
  3. JP Crawford
  4. Carlos Tocci
  5. Adam Morgan
  6. Roman Quinn
  7. Kelly Dugan
  8. Cord Sandberg
  9. Tommy Joseph
  10. Shane Watson
  11. Andrew Knapp
  12. Dylan Cozens
  13. Zach Green
  14. Jose Pujols
  15. Cesar Hernandez
  16. Mitch Gueller
  17. Aaron Altherr
  18. Andrew Pullin
  19. Cameron Rupp
  20. Kenneth Giles
  21. Yoel Mecias
  22. Dievi Grullon
  23. Seth Rosin
  24. Cameron Perkins
  25. Severino Gonzalez
  26. Larry Greene Jr
  27. Nic Hanson
  28. Mitch Walding
  29. Jan Hernandez
  30. Gabriel Lino
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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

84 thoughts on “Mid Season Ranking Supplement”

  1. Broadly, I see 6 “good” prospects, 7 or 8 maybe-starters, 5 maybe-bench guys, and a handful of lottery tickets. Would be interesting to know how, depth-wise, this compares to other systems.

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  2. So when does JPC take over the #1 spot?

    Hard to put a GCL guy over AA players, but I think it’s only a matter of time.

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    1. That was my debate, I think he has to survive full season ball before you can rank him ahead of Biddle and Franco, who have good upside and are likely less than a year away from major league contributions

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      1. At this point, my list goes:
        1. Biddle – Just on sheer stuff and proximity to the majors. BA named his curveball as the best breaking ball in all of AA. According to scouts, a lot of his problems have arisen from his inability to find a repeatable arm slot. If he can iron out this kink and throw all three pitches for strikes, he has #2 ceiling still.
        2. JP Crawford – has plus range, a plus arm, and seems to possess all the instincts to stick at SS. Has gotten on base at an astounding rate, walking at 14.8% while striking out at only 14.1%. 10 SB in 29 games, scouts are starting to recognize his baserunning as plus now. If he can maintain an ISO at .150+ with all of those complementary tools, we’ve got a serious prospect on our hands (ala Rollins back in the day)
        3. Maikel Franco – I’ll admit, I was as stubborn as any to see the flaws. However, I’ve always seen the excessive movement pre-swing, the extended load, etc. Until AA it was never a problem. That being said, the eye is there, the power is there, and he seems to have the ability to be an average 3B defensively (scouting reports vary, but most seem to agree he can stick). I like the Edwin Encarnacion comp, it took him a while to put it all together and now he’s a 4 WAR per year guy. Nothing wrong with that, after all Franco is still only 20 years old.
        4. Adam Morgan – Solid stuff and the ability to be a durable arm given his stellar control. Injury doesn’t dampen my expectations much, still see him as a solid #3.
        5. Roman Quinn – The peripherals were still solid, but the switch-hitting experiment took a nosedive before his injury this season. With JP Crawford in the system, I’d be fine with moving him to CF given his tremendous range. His bat has more power potential than a similar plus-plus speed guy like Hamilton and gets on base at a good clip even in a down 2013 campaign.

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  3. Maybe Nic Hanson could learn that Jordan Walden jump off the mound and throw the ball a few inches closer to the plate. Couple that with his 6’7″ reach and that would make his fastball seem even better.

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  4. Pitching is not looking too great right now. Although Martin and Pettibone don’t figure into the rankings because of making it to the big leagues. Even so, after Biddle and Morgan make it there is a large gap of pitching prospects. And who knows how successful Martin/Pettibone/Biddle/Morgan will be into the future in the majors.

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  5. No problem with the 30 names on your list. You lost me on the order after #6.

    Dugan is a 22 year old, holding his own at his proper level, is rated higher than Tommy Joseph, who is a catcher who held his own at the same level as a 20 year old?
    Cord Sandberg, a 2nd round pick who is striking out at a Tyler Greenesque pace in the GCL, is the 8th best prospect in the system?
    Other than those 2, nothing bad. Cesar Hernandez, a little higher. Mitch Gueller should be lower(Andrew Anderson?) But everything else is reasonable.

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    1. Re: Sandberg – At some point you have to trust the national consensus on a guy. Sandberg was ranked WAY higher by the national press then Tyler Greene. The reports were pretty glowing, even if the results aren’t yet.

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      1. Sandberg was rated 40-55, depending on whether you follow BA, Law or MLB.com. Tyler Greene was rated #75 by BA. The difference wasn’t that big.

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        1. Sandberg was ranked highly by nearly every major Draft publication that exists(Mayo, BP, BA, Perfect game, etc). Greene was ranked highly by BA. I’m going to call Sandberg the winner by “weight of consensus.”

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      2. Additionally, by that line of reasoning alone, Shane Watson should be rated ahead of Cord Sandberg. Shane Watson was rated no lower than 40 by any source, per-draft, and is playing a level ahead of his peers.

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            1. Looking at the whole list add Quinn, Mecias, Knapp (elbow should be good now but it is the reason he is where he is), Giles (missed time), and Perkins (missed time). There is some upside guys that have had a lost season and it really threw the ranking part for a loop.

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    2. I answered Sandberg lower. Joseph keeps dropping because I don’t know when he is going to play again. I am now really worried about the long term concussion effects. This year has been a lost year, and for a guy with plenty of hit tool and defensive questions it is a really big red flag.

      Gueller still rates high because while the results and fastball haven’t been there he does show good feel for a changeup and curveball with plus projection and that is not something you can say about a lot of guys. Anderson lack the velocity right now to rank high (Gueller has flashed plus plus velocity in the past)

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    3. Obviously age for level is an important determining factor when you evaluate how a minor leaguer is performing…but I think experience is also an important factor because that’s generally ‘accepted’ why age is important. If a player is older that means they’re more experienced… but in the case of Kelly Dugan that’s not entirely true.

      Before Tommy Joseph saw his first AA pitch last season he had accumulated right around 1200 minor league plate appearances. He then posted a .257/.317/.399/.715 line with a .142 ISO (7.6 BB%, 21.4 K%)

      Before Kelly Dugan was promoted to AA this season he had accumulated 1221 minor league plate appearances. He currently sports a .281/.325/.482/.807 slash with a .202 ISO (3.2 BB%, 20.2 K%)

      I’ve long said that the Kelly Dugan age argument has to have an asterisk because unlike most players when you talk about age, Dugan does not have the presumed experience accumulation because of injury problems during his first 3 years in the system.

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      1. Even if you discount age, and assume Dugan and Joseph are the same experience level, Joseph’s overall line for a catcher, is better than Dugan’s for an Outfielder.

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        1. Well today’s inky has a story by Matt Gelb http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Concern-for-Tommy-Joseph-Cesar-Hernandez-close-to-return.html

          Joe Jordan confirms Tommy Joseph is shut down for 2013 and that while they will try to keep him at catcher since he’s more valuable there they may have to move him before 2014. A 1B Tommy Joseph falls well behind an OF Kelly Dugan and a questionable health Tommy Joseph falls a bit behind a healthy OF Kelly Dugan.

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          1. I’ve always been higher on Joseph than some people, but if he has to move off catcher, is he really a prospect at all?

            Further confirmation that, rightly or wrongly (rightly in my view, but see below) the organization does not see Hernandez as a potential regular.

            I’ve said before that, if Hernandez really was the plus defender at second that some people seem to think he is, along with the plus base running, you could live with the fact that he is not going to be an above average (or even average) hitter. I DON’T have an opinion on the defense myself, but I’ve felt that a number of factors – including the fact that most of the guys who are raving about his defense don’t seem to have actually seen him play – suggest that he is NOT a plus defender. I think that the fact that the organization doesn’t see him as more than a utility guy is more circumstantial evidence that his defense is not plus.

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            1. I don’t think it necessarily says the org doesn’t see Hernandez as a potential regular. Rather, they don’t see him being as good as Utley for the next couple years, so if he’s going to be on the team he has to be able to do something else.

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      2. But experience isn’t why age/level is important. Players delayed for injury reasons still miss development time. Maybe you consider age/level, I don’t know, 10% less for someone in Dugan’s shoes. 20% less?

        But honestly age/level isn’t IMO the big issue with Dugan. Now, he’s certainly a work in progress, so the following MAY change. He is a real prospect, who could become a decent major league regular. But IMO the current profile – BB/K/ISO, adjusted for position – doesn’t QUITE project to a major league regular. Even assuming he can duplicate it in the majors. That’s ESPECIALLY true given the horrible AA BB rate, which I put more weight on than Matt does.

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    4. He actually has Joseph too high, give Joseph needing to move off of catcher, not recovering from concussion in half a season, and really never hitting close enough to satisfactory for any position other than catcher to be considered anything other than a fringe prospect today. It’s sad. Injuries happen. It’s not his fault. I think he was a bit over-hyped all along. In any case, no longer a top 20 prospect.

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    1. I really like the overall toolset. If you take away his 5 games in June he has struck out 19 times and walked 17 times in 102 plate appearances, in other words a 16.6% walk rate and 18.6% strikeout rate. That walk rate is really nice and the strikeout rate is not bad at all. His BABIP is down to .253 on the year so there is a lot of bad luck involved as well in the overall numbers. He probably is a LFer long term but there is plenty of bat there and every report I have gotten has said that he is superb fielder in LF and could provide a ton of value with the glove. He is also one of the good makeup guys who is a team leader and is always looking to make improvements.

      But it really comes down to the fact that he is less raw than I thought and it is a package with 5 plus tools to go with plenty of physical projection.

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      1. Why would you say LF and not RF? It seems to me that a guy capable of playing some CF right now, but likely to fill out more and move over would slide to RF. Sandberg by all accounts I’ve read has a real gun for an arm (he was recruited to be Miss St’s starting QB) and his athleticism and speed is also regarded as good. I would think he’d make more sense in RF to use that athleticism and his arm. (Sort of a Francouer type)

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        1. They may try him in RF, right now he gets great reads in LF and looks very natural out there. Partly it is also because I think he is going to be bumped to LF by the RF he will be next too up through the minors (Pujols in Williamsport or Cozens in Lakewood). He probably could play RF at a moment’s notice (and he might make it up as a CFer) but he is likely to get all of his reps in LF for the forseeable future. The arm will play just as well there.

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            1. I get the feeling that if it isn’t 3B for Encarnacion it is going to be 1B. You are buying a bat with that signing. If it is the OF could likely go to either corner because of the arm

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          2. I’ve watched Pujols play RF this summer. His bat may get him into the line up, but he needs to improve his defense to stay on the field. He takes questionable routes to balls and misplays some balls he does get to. I think he only has 3 errors, but that is not indicative of the balls he doesn’t get his glove on that he could/should have.

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  7. Larry Greene Jr still on the list seems a little optimistic.

    Love the progress that Dugan has made. Good for him.

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    1. The problem is that the names Greene was competing with who just missed were Collier, Milner, Sweaney, Wright, Williams, Pointer, Herlis, and Tromp. None of those names are really providing a ton of confidence right now.

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      2. I don’t get the problem with Tromp. He’s still 19, in Williamsport, with an over .800 OPS. Seems to me like the kid is doing pretty good. Looking across the board his stats look good. 8+% walks, Ks in the mid 20%, plenty of X-base hits. I have no problem ranking him up my list.

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  8. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on how Asche and Dugan compare including positional value. I’m also interested in why Ceasar hernandez seems to be so much further down your rankings then Dugan considering the positional value he could bring at second base?

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    1. Hernandez vs Dugan: Dugan is an every day regular and I just don’t see that for Hernandez at second base. I don’t think the bat plays well enough to provide starting value, which means his major league future is tied to learning enough other positions to claim a bench spot.
      Asche vs Dugan: It is a really interesting debate, I like Dugan’s profile and ceiling better but Asche is in the major leagues right now and that would have me rank him over Dugan if he was still eligible. I think Asche will hitter for a better average but Dugan should do everything else better

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        1. And Dugan plays his position better defensively than Asche plays his. I also adjusted for position in expectations of offense for each of them

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  9. Thanks for the list. I am curious what you are hearing on Richard Bielski. He is pitching well for in the GCL. I remember he was young when he was drafted but supposedly threw in the low 90s.

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  10. I think you are being a little tough on Franco. We didn’t think he would keep up that torrid pace did we? Last 40 or so AB’s he has only 3 K’s. I haven’t seen the games, but I guess he is putting the ball in play. Didn’t we read that one “scout” called him the best impact bat in the minor leagues he has seen this year?

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    1. In 24 games since the AA All-Star game Franco is hitting .274/.314/.400, with 4BBs and 12Ks. He is making contact (it is fairly close to his career BABIP) but you are now looking at a ISO of .126, which is concerning when coupled with the other factors (given the secondary skills the power is what has to carry him). I have heard many more concerning reports, especially since he came to AA than reports impressed with him.

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        1. Exactly Matt. You can’t have one without the other. I don’t want to thrown out the early numbers or the recent ones. Judge him as a whole in AA. That’s all.

          Its funny how you try to out smart yourself and talk yourself out of his success in AA.

          Have we gone so far down the road with K% and BB% and BABIP that we classify a 20 yr old that is OPSing over 900 in AA as trending down?? Trust me I understand the value of advanced stats and believe in them whole-heatedly, and I’ve read every scouting report regarding his swing and plate discipline and take that into consideration but let’s not totally lose perspective here

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          1. I think what you’re missing is not just the concerns regarding the scouting reports, but that the BB tare (2.8%).is really really bad, and a real red flag. AND the BB% reinforces one of the scouting concerns (the approach, which is really really bad at this point.

            Now, one could ask “trending down” compared to when. I think that, compared to before the season started he certainly is “trending up,” and I suspect Matt would agree. But compared to just before – and especially immediately after – the promotion to AA, I think “trending down” is fair.

            Again, he still has him second. He’s a great prospect. But this isn’t something that needs to be fixed if he is to have major league success.

            One does wonder what happened at AA – because before that, while he was aggressive, the BB rate was at least adequate, and the approach (from what I read) not problematic.

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            1. That is, this IS something that needs to be fixed if he is to have a successful major league career.

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            2. The whole trending was in relation to the fact that this is labeled as mid-season supplement and so it is in relation to the previously posted mid season rankings

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            3. I think we need more time at AA to see how his BB rate will normalize. He spent a month of hitting at such a torrid pace that he was swinging and hitting everything he saw. See Dom from earlier this year, and I feel like i am not going out on too much of a limb in saying no one is expecting Franco to hit like Brown in the majors. As in having the large # of quality ABs that Brown has.

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        2. You limit yourself to ‘trending/up’ or’ trending/down’….why no category for ‘no change’?

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    2. I am not sure that Matt is being tough on Franco, he did rank him #2 even though he has him trending down. And as i type that I figure out why i had the same feeling as you. When you have a 20 yr old kid dominate high A and is one of the youngest at AA and has a good run to start with and is running into a rough patch as of late, still has good numbers at AA and overall taking age into account. It is difficult to say a negative about his year. The scouting report issues with approach can be adjusted as he matures, but he has to have a degree of failure before you can tell him he is doing stuff wrong. Hopefully this recent stretch is enough for him to make some adjustments with his approach and work on shortening his swing in the off season. i guess the bottom line is we have finally seen him show the ability that may saw in him prior to last year, and now he is at the point where we need to see how he handles himself when better pitchers adjust to his tendencies.

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  11. Think Sandberg is too high as well

    Also, you forgot Ethan Martin. think he still would eligible for the list (as Hernandez is on there)

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  12. While I’m still excited about Franco and Biddle, I have cooled on them quite a bit. I still think Franco’s best case scenario is a perennial all-star but his odds of flame-out have increased substantially with the bad scouting reports. Biddle on the other hand has been a mess for weeks now.

    Now onto our clear #3, JP Crawford… I wish you’d written up a little more about him then you did… IF he has a similar performance next year at a higher level, I’ll move him to #1 with ease.

    He’s got the highest ceiling in the system by a large margin. Not that you ever want to project a HOF career for ANY minor league player, but… he’s the only player in the system who I think has any chance, regardless of how remote those odds are.

    Here are the tools I’m seeing right now:

    Arm: 60/65
    Defense: 50/65
    Speed: 55/60
    Bat: 40/70 (Post draft I had him at with a cap of 60 on the hit tool and currently a 30, but his superior plate disciple and contact rates have caused me to boost this up to 40/70.)
    Power: 30/50 Initial scouting reports were all over the place with his power potential, and to a certain degree still are. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up anywhere between 35 and 60 as a professional because seems to have exceptional coordination (he’s definitely not a slap hitter), what’s lacking at this time is the proper build. I believe there was a lengthy article on his family history when attempting to project him on crashburn alley which pointed out that he has the right genetics for above average (not plus) power.

    If he were to realize his potential, we’re looking at a 65/65/60/70/50 player… at short stop… that is HOF potential baring injury. His odds of being in Cooperstown? Extremely low (say 1/2 % at most?), but you can’t name another player in the system that has that potential.

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    1. A reminder to everyone: the last time Biddle was health was for the 16K game. And by health I mean the pertussis infection, not an arm issue.

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      1. I understand that, and it’s not that I think Biddle is washed up. But his ceiling is likely a very good number 3, with his floor at 4/5. As a comparison, Cole Hamels, for most of his career has been a very good #2, and nothing about Biddle’s history suggests he’s anywhere near that. He’s never put up what I’d call “video game” numbers, which as abstract as that sounds, is a pretty good measure of a players star potential.

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    2. I think the hit tool projection is a little high but I am not going to argue that too much (I think it is more 60ish). The only major disagreement is the speed. It is maybe 55 right now and projects more around 50 long term. It will certainly play up due to instincts but he is not a burner by any stretch of the imagination.

      I am going to write up Crawford more later, there has been so much numbers hype right now it is difficult to write something that people will take rationally.

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      1. I’ll be interested to see that. I suspect I may be getting a bit carried away, but what I like about the numbers is that, even making huge adjustments for the absurd BABIP, he grades out quite impressively.
        ‘
        Time permitting (crazy busy today) I have a few comments on how he looks against first round picks on a raw numbers basis. The short version is, better than ever, above all of them, now including the older guys.

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        2. Do you feel that truly dominant players (think Bryce Harper) maintain unsustainable (oxymoron) BABIP’s in the minors?

          In short, is an unsustainable BABIP sustainable through at-least A+ before beginning to drop gradually until hitting the majors?

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          1. I think there’s truth to that, and one reason why simply dismissing the BA as BABIP inflated is IMO unwise. But .461 is kind of high even so.

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          2. Those guys are better off answering that than me, but BABIP should come down as the fielding gets better (i.e. defenders getting to more batted balls) and pitching gets tougher (causing the average hitter to hit less pitches hard). Guys that maintian a high LD and GB% and who make cleaner contact are able to susatin a higher BABIP. Speed also plays a part with the ability leg out INF singles…

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            1. Yeah, I think his point is that, while obviously the BABIP is going to come down as the pitching and fielding gets better, maintaining a high BABIP early on can be (is not always) a really good sign anyway. In other words, it’s not always JUST luck.

              What’s impressive about Crawford, though, IMO, is that the more sustainable numbers are also so good. I won’t have time for my intended longish post comping his numbers to other first round picks, but I will throw a couple of facts out there. First, he has the best BB/K ratio of any of the first round draft choices so far. Only one player,Hunter Dozier, a college kid in Rookie ball, is even close.

              The other is a little more subjective because there are a number of different ways to evaluate hitting. But I think there’s a good argument that, even among college kids, only one first round choice has really had the immediate impact Crawford did – Phillip Ervin, and he of course is an outfielder. Among the HS kids, VOR brought up Reese Mcguire, and that was a reasonable comp at the time, but (based purely on performance) he has fallen a bit behind Crawford lately.

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            2. I think the SS is getting large enough with Crawford that it’s safe that the luck factor isn’t extraordinarily high (something that concerned me a bit in his first few weeks when he wasn’t getting any XBHs), though without seeing him every day taht os impossible to confirm.

              I’ll look forward to your longer piece. I rarely look much beyond BB/K rates and ISO when judging the success of postion players in GCL and Short Season.

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      2. I agree about the speed tool, they almost always drop as a player advances due to over-all size. Not sure what I was thinking there. It is likely his speed increases slightly between now and 21/22, and then drops between then and retirement, slowly at first and then quicker once he hits his 30’s.

        As to his hit tool, I read scouting reports pre-draft that said “plus hit tool” which is 60. Would you agree that what he’s shown so far this year appears to be better then a flat plus grade (though not elite)? Or is it the initial plus grade that you disagreed with?

        I guess I’m trying to figure out if you upgraded him based on his performance thus far or not.

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        1. I haven’t upgraded the tools on him. It has been more about the polish and safety being much better. The approach has been the best surprise. But overall it is still small sample size against not the best competition so I don’t want to overreact too much.

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  13. I see a significant split between the top 6 and the next 10, even with Morgan and Quinn dropping a bit.

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  14. I know we haven’t officially signed him yet, but can someone provide some background on encarnacion? Just from what I have glanced at, it sounds like 3b/1b with a good hit tool. If anyone can provide something slightly more detailed, it’d be much appreciated..

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    2. this was from BA

      Luis Encarnacion, 3b, Dominican Republic: Encarnacion won’t sign on July 2 because he’s still 15, so he has to wait until Aug. 9 to turn pro. He’s one of the premier hitters in the class, showing the ability to hit in games and drive the ball for plus power. Sources believe the Phillies have become infatuated with his bat and look like the favorites to land him next month.

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      1. just in 8 minutes ago

        Dominican third baseman Luis Encarnacion became eligible to sign when he turned 16 at midnight. The Phillies struck quickly, signing Encarnacion for $1 million.

        Enarnacion, the No. 4 international prospect for July 2, is one of the top hitters in Latin America. At 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, Enarnacion has a track record of hitting in games with plus raw power from the right side. His value is entirely in his offense, as he projects to move to left field or first base. Encarnacion trains with Juan Herrera, who is known as “Mon,” and plays in the International Prospect League.

        Baseball America subscribers can access a complete scouting report on Encarnacion, along with reports on more of the top international prospects on the market.

        The post Phillies Sign No. 4 International Prospect Luis Encarnacion appeared first on BaseballAmerica.com.

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    1. Because he is playing at a lower level (and better hitting environment) than last year and is peripheral numbers are worse.
      2012 (w Phillies): 9.5% BB%, 22.3% K%, .144 ISO
      2013: 6.4% BB%, 27.4% K%, .123 ISO
      The biggest difference is that his BABIP in 2012 was .281 and it is .354 in 2013. He wasn’t on the original drafts of the list, the defensive improvement kept him at #30 overall.

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  16. If Encarnacion signs, where would you all envision him signing. I would strongly presume there is a large POTENTIAL upside, coupled with big risk given all the unknowns.

    Given what I undstand to be the upside, is he in the ‘lottery ticket’ player ranking?

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  17. Unlike Rueben, I am working on a five year plan and Ruf and Asche have impressed me( nobody use the 3S’s, I get it) but when does everyone think Franco and Dugan will be ready. If Ruf continues to hit and hold his own in OF, they can go Ruf Revere Brown. Also if Franco is ready for 3b in 2016 age 22 can Asche move to 2b?

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    1. Assuming Franco starts next year in AAA, he could be a September call-up next year or get a shot in 2015. It really depends on how he fixes the issues that people have brought up. Asche probably wouldn’t be able to move to 2nd because by all reports he just wasn’t very good there at all. Dugan, I don’t know how much to buy into him. I could see him having to do a full year in AA and AAA but it’s also possible if he’s performing well and injuries are extensive, he could get called up while in AAA.

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  18. Why the broken thread? I don’t recall any comments that should have been deleted (and can’t recall now what comment was deleted).

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  19. Think Tocci repeats Lakewood next season? I’m a bit concerned by his .248 BABIP which suggests he may be getting overpowered. At the same time, I’ve watched every video available of his swing and I have to say that I like it.

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