Today BA released their IL Top 20, on a whole it was a weak list with Cloyd making the back end of it.
Cloyd’s year has been much discussed and was phenomenal. After his promotion to the big leagues he showed valid many of the concerns that were put forth about him. Cloyd’s fastball sits 86-89 and can rarely touch 90, however he commands it well. He also has an average change up and cutter to use against left handed hitters. His curveball also is an average pitch but it does not have the ability to be a put away pitch. At most Cloyd is a back end #4 starter but likely profiles as a fringy #5 starter. He can be effective if his command is there but because of his stuff he has to perfect in order to succeed.
Missing the list were a trio of potential high impact relivers in Jake Diekman, Phillipe Aumont, and Justin DeFratus in addition to some other interesting middle relief prospects such as Michael Schwimmer and BJ Rosenberg.
Phuture Phillies 
I’ll take a #6 starter/long reliever out of Cloyd. That’s exceeding any expectation I had for him.
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when Cloyd is wrong with a pitch….he is really wrong.
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Cloyd was pitching on fumes in September and still showed potential. Excellent outings vs Nats and Reds. Hope to see him rested and ready in 2013. With Pettibone waiting right behind him.
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Got some info on bullpen guys
Matt (Philly): The Lehigh Valley bullpen had some interesting arms in it over the course of the year, how would you rank Aumont, DeFratus, Diekman, Rosenberg, and Schwimmer going forward? Do any of them have closer or late inning reliever upside?
John Manuel: I always liked DeFratus out of that group, but Aumont is just such a beast physically. It always has seemed like he should be better. Rosenberg has less upside, Schwimmer less and then Diekman is what he is, a left-on-left guy with some velo, up to 96 according to our reports. Still think Aumont has the highest ceiling of those guys but we’ve been waiting a while, haven’t we?
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Thanks Matt.
Honestly, with the exception of DeFratus (not sure what to make of him yet), I’ve seen all of these guys so much that there’s nothing a prospect wonk can tell me about their performance or upside that I don’t think I already know. Not trying to be cocky or anything, but that’s how I feel. Anyway, I think he has a pretty good sense of these guys with the possible excepiton of Rosenberg and maybe Diekman (if Diekman could improve his fastball command just a little, he could be lethal). I think Rosenberg has taken a huge step forward. He throws hard as hell and he can maintain his velocity for multiple innings. He is as big of a #6 sleeper starter as the team has and, if he doesn’t do that, he could be one of the best long men in baseball – a guy who could come in during the 4th or 5th inning and consistently keep you in the game into the 7th inning – a very rare beast indeed.
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As for Schwimmer, I’ve already said that, absent a sincere and heart-felt apology, he is as good as gone. I don’t expect him to be in the organization by April 1, but if he is, they may send him down to Reading for a while as punishment (I am NOT joking).
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My philosophy is to get as many bits of information as possible and it is nice to see them align and diverge.
When it comes to Rosenberg I don’t think he can be a starter unless he somehow develops at least an average as a starter. As a reliever he needs another pitch that has movement, a nice two-seamer to keep hitters off his straight fastball otherwise he is doomed to grooving fastballs for big hits. (If he can do any of that I like him as a long man but not as he currently is)
I hesitate to say Diekman will be much more than a LOOGY due to the delivery, there haven’t been many guys with a side arm delivery who don’t have pronounced platoon splits. But as a LOOGY he has a ton of value in the division and I expect him to become very familiar with Heyward, Freeman, and Harper going forward.
As for Schwimmer, I agree he may be part of a package going somewhere, but I expect him back in AAA next year as the taxi guy for injuries until the next wave (Bonilla, Knigge, and Giles) are ready. I think he is talented with some value especially while he is cheap, but he is not irreplaceable
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Matt – I agree it’s great to post these bits of information as I think we all scan the internet for these things. Thank you for doing that – it’s extremely interesting and helpful. My apologies if my comment seemed to imply that this information was unnecessary – that was not my intention nor is it my belief. I was just responding to opinion proferred.
On Rosenberg, he already has a serviceable slider (88 MPH), which, if he locates that and his fastball reasonably well, is enough for him to succeed as a long reliever or situational 7th or 8th man. In order to have any degree of long-term success as a starter, he is going to need to improve the slider and develop another effective breaking pitch. He seems to be working on a change-up, so we’ll see. He definitely has the arm to succeed in a starting role, however.
I actually think Schwimmer will have a decent major league career, but I don’t think it will be in Philly unless he rights that ship immediately. They have a lot of relief options and don’t need or want the hassle of a guy who complains openly when he is sent down. Look, Scwhimmer is an exceptionally bright guy. If he wasn’t playing baseball he’d probably be in law school right now or finishing his MBA and clerking for an investment bank. He’s really sharp. But I think, in baseball, he may be perceived as a bit of an arrogant problem child or as being high maintenance. It may not even be remotely close to true, but I think he’s developing that reputation. Once you get that type of label, it’s hard to shed. He should go home this winter with a goal to get better, pitch and must mind his business. It’s in his best interests to do so.
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Phillies need to find or develop a young reliever with the nerves of a cat burglar. A guy who doesn’t hear the crowd get on him when he’s pitching at home and he runs a 3-0 count on the first batter.
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Atlanta’s Medlin gives me some hope for Cloyd that one can still be a very effective big league starter with marginal velocity.
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Though I may tend to agree with you in some respects, you may want to check out his K/9 rate in the minors, pretty impressive. He does have something that Cloyd doesn’t have that makes batters miss.
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Realizing that Medlen is not a hard thrower, his average fastball velocity is 90.0 mph, Cloyd’s average velocity in his brief time in the bigs was 86.2mph. That is a significant difference in velocity, in addition all of Medlen’s other pitches grade higher (inlcuding his change up which might even be a 70 pitch). Coming up through the minors (pre-TJ surgery) Medlen sat 92-94. It just is not a good comparison, I wouldn’t try, here are the starting pitchers with lower fastball velocity than Cloyd; Jeff Suppan, Jeff Francis, Mark Buehrle, Chris Young, Livan Hernandez, Barry Zito, RA Dickey, that is it, if you are looking just above him your best case scenarios are Carl Pavano, Shaun Marcum, Bruce Chen, and Bronson Arroyo all of whom through harder at Cloyd’s age or have some other elite pitch.
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The article I read on Medlin said that he threw 86-90. I think Cloyd had a tired arm because when I saw him pitch at Reading he threw 86-90. If Medlin averages 90 then that is a major difference, my bad.
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I think that we neeed to take into account that not only did Cloyd have an arm that was falling off from exhaustion, but he only pitched a few big league games. If we are going to consider Darin Ruf’s showing in a few MLB games as non-significant due to small sample size, shouldn’t we give the same consideration to Cloyd?
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The thing is that velocity reading matched the scouting reports, what you can attribute to fatigue was his inability to locate it like he was earlier in the season. When it comes to pitching small sample size arguments are useful for discussing results but when it comes to pitch velocity it tends to not be as important (it can be for extenuating circumstances such as injury or fatigue but the stuff here matched earlier reports)
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Agreed Matt, judging Cloyd has nothing to do with his results but rather he performances matched what scouts were reporting throughout the season. He has a below average fastball without having any other pitch which would be considered plus. Just not a recipe for success in the majors.
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Tyler Cloyd will be remembered for his dancing grandma. His stuff will not play. No one with a SO/9 ratio like his in the minors can come up to MLB and pitch successfully.
As for Diekman, he needs to throw strikes. RH hitters can’t hit his stuff when he’s at 96 MPH with his fastball and throwing a wicked slider. But they quickly learned to just stand there and wait until ball four was called.
Schwimmer may have had a beef about being injured. If he is to be a future prospect he had better have been hurt because he sucked balls.
Rosenberg is nothing. That slider is slow to break. A get over pitch at best.
Aumont’s issue is the same as Diekman. If he throws strikes he’s a beast. If he doesn’t he’s a nightmare.
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I disagree on Rosenberg, I think he’ll be our long man next year right of st.
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you guys bring up many interesting points! i don’t post here much but i’ll give you guys my two cents. # 1 my thoughts on cloyd are that as some of you have said , his velocity is a concern to me ,but i;ve seen him at reading and if i remember he hit 90-91 a few times. could this lack of vel. be from a tired arm? i tend to think so. what are your thoughts on him trying a knuckleball? lol
#2 rosenberg, the guy can chuck the ball and i agree he needs another pitch, if he had a really good offspeed pitch he’d be a lot better, and yes i think he’s best suited for middle relief. #3 diekman , whew this guy ever gets command of that FB and that slider he’d be untouchable R or L hitters! # and #4 aumont,defratus, if i’m the manager they’re both up next year. they have the composure and the stuff! but cholly has to use them right! he tends to leave guys in way too long sometimes , and also give someone the hook too fast! he has a hard time handling a bullpen. which brings me to schwimmer.there were times he looked great, he has the stuff. there were other times he didn’t look so good. but those times were early. he did get a lot better as he settled in as did most of them, which led to a much improove 2cd half. i think charlie mishandled a lot of them, schwimmer a couple of times was left in for way too long after a couple of good strong innings then the third inning he got hammered. overall i liked what i saw from these guys, some more than others but the pen problems we had early won’t be in the future.
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