General Discussion–Week of October 8

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Your place to talk about anything this week.  Arizona Fall League is in full swing.  Baseball America organizational rankings are wrapping up with 9 Phillies’ prospects making lists.

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

123 thoughts on “General Discussion–Week of October 8”

    1. My guess is that because he is a minor league free-agent he is neither reinstated or released, his contract just expires. I would keep an eye open on whether the Phils resign him or you see his name pop up elsewhere.

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  3. Anyone know about Kyle Simons stuff? He came over in the Thome trade. Turned 22 in August. His whip is insane. Under .700 over Clearwater and Reading.

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    1. All reports I have are him as a starter though his draft report says that as a reliever you would expect him to touch 93 much more often.
      His fastball as a starter sits 86-89 but can touch up to 93, the important thing is that his fastball has heavy sink to it. He also has a slider that is still a work in progress. He has a cutter and change up that could possibly profile as average. His delivery has some deception to it.
      A decent middle relief prospect but there is an important role for them, especially on cheap salaries.

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  4. There are rumors that the Phillies are very interested in Peter Bourjos. Personally I love the idea because he is under team control for the next 4 years and not arb eligible til 2014. He shouldn’t be too expensive and while he is a bit of an enigma on offense he is arguably the best defensive centerfielder in baseball. I think the package would have to include a major league ready pitcher who is cost controlled (Worley, Kendrick, or Pettibone pop to mind first) and then something else, I would suspect you could get it done with a high impact bullpen guy (DeFratus) or possibly a catcher like Rupp or Valle.

    Do others like Bourjos and what kind of package do you think it would take?

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    1. I confess he was not on my radar at all until now, but if he really could be had for that sort of package, I’d say absolutely yes in a heartbeat. His defense and base running are so good that, even if his hitting doesn’t advance, he is a decent regular. And if his hitting does progress, which it could, he’s potentially a border line star.

      He’s really exactly the kind of guy the Phillies should be taking a flier on – fairly cheap to acquire (if you are correct), cost controlled young player with some upside.

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      1. Bourjos is another MiLB enigma. By all accounts his minor league career suggests he should be an above average MLB hitter but in 940 MLB PA’s he’s barely a 300 OBP. If here were available yeah take a chance but not for a big package of prospects.

        I’m looking for our CF to also be our new lead off so a 300 OBP would scare me. Maybe more alarming is the strikeout rate.

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        1. I don’t know. I’m looking at his minor league numbers and they’re not exactly impressive. A .326 OBP in the Cal League, better overall numbers but still just 24 walks in the PCL. By comparison, Tyson Gillies has performed better every season in which he was reasonably healthy. Not saying I’d rather wait for Gillies, because he’s got his own issues, but Bourjos’ minor league numbers don’t scream “possible star” to me.

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          1. Ofeensively, he did power 12 dingers last year so he has pop….and of some importance, he is a righthand bat in the lineup.

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          2. As hitters, if you take the air out of Gillies’ high dessert season (which still accounts for more than 40% of his minor league PA), they were essentially the same players as minor leaguers, with maybe a few more BB for Gillies but a little more power for Bourjos. But Bourjos has a huge edge as a fielder, even though Gillies, by all accounts, is decent or better in the field. Of course that’s also ignoring the injuries and other issues with Gillies.

            Mind you, I LIKE Gillies and still have hopes for him, but IMO the comparison merely highlights what a good move acquiring Bourjos would be. That said, my guess is that the price would be higher than Matt is speculating.

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            1. If I had the choice, I’d definitely take Bourjos over Gillies, I’m just saying that Bourjos has never really put up great numbers when you consider the leagues he’s played in. He seems like an above average CF at best, which is just fine and if he’s available I’d hope the Phils are interested. But there’s also a chance he’s just a 4th outfielder, so I don’t think he’s a guy we should be giving up multiple top prospects for.

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            2. ‘Bourjos has never really put up great numbers when you consider the leagues he’s played in.’…i assume you do not mean the major leagues like 2011!

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            3. Yeah, that’s really the elephant in the room. Sure, that performance was likely BABIP driven to some extent, but even so it was pretty darn good for a 24 year old (at the time) center fielder who could easily win a few gold gloves if he can hit enough to make it as a regular.

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            4. Maybe we have different ideas of what ‘great numbers’ are, but I was mostly talking about his minor league stats anyway. If we got him and then he replicated his 2011 numbers year in and year out I’d be happy, especially if he improved his base stealing. But like Larry said, it looks like it was partly BABIP driven because in 2012 his peripheral stats weren’t much different- actually his walk rate showed a nice improvement- but his OPS plummeted.

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            6. Wrist and hip, but I know no details, including the extent to which, or even whether, they effected his performance.

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            7. From ESPN.MLB—-‘Bourjos will not undergo hip surgery this offseason, contrary to plans laid out by the team in spring training, the LA Times reports. He might also play winter ball in the Dominican Republic. (Thu Oct 4)’….evidently the hip did bother him.

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        2. Well he isn’t going to be a lead off guy, despite looking like a stereotypical lead off guy.

          As a hitter, what he could do – no guarantees, but given his age this is a realistic hope – is to increase his ISO a bit, as well as BB rate (some signs of the former in 2011 and the latter in 2012). Both of those skills often improve for players in Bourjos’ age range. Decreasing his K% would be nice too, and isn’t out of the question as his contact numbers were better in the minors, but it isn’t horrible now, just bad for a lead off type. He could then settle in around .250/.330/.430, which doesn’t seem that exciting at first glance, but given his superb defense and good base running, would be a pretty valuable combination. As a bonus, he’ll probably be a little underpaid during his arb years because of hitting numbers that aren’t going to be that flashy. He wouldn’t bat lead off, but that’s a 5 WAR player, and the Phillies don’t have many of those at the moment.

          Is he sire to reach that level? No. But .. well, put it this way, I am still a big Brown fan and still think he’s going to be a solid regular at least. But for two guys the same age (Brown 6 months younger) … who projects as more valuable over the next 5 years? Has to be Bourjos, by a lot, doesn’t it?

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          1. Possibly but nothing happens in a vacuum so I kind of like the idea if it didn’t cost to much. I’m in the mindset of giving some young guys a chance to stick. I’d actually give the job to Gillies for a month and a half say 200 PA’s and see if he has the make up to stick.

            I know what I wouldn’t do and that is give any of these FA CF’s a multi year deal!

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            1. Well that depends upon which FA and how many years. 🙂 But yeah, given the market as it is, probably all of those guys are going to go for too much and too many years. But if one of them is left still looking for a team as spring training nears, bargains maybe had and then I wouldn’t mind giving one of them a 2 or 3 year deal at the right AAV.

              I also wouldn’t mind picking Vic back up on a 1 or 2 year deal, which may be all he can get at this point, granted I do not see it happening.

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      2. And with a great defensive CFer, he could cover a multitude of sins from the corners, particularly if you’re running some combination of Ruf, Brown, and Nix at there.

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    3. Yeah I wouldn’t trade Worley for him, but the other names you mentioned should be in play. It seems like he might just be a 4th OF in the majors but he’s young enough to hope that he could be a legit everyday CF.

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      1. I’d trade Worley for him if that’s who they asked for. Sort of a buy low for both sides so I think it’d be a great deal for both teams.

        The Phillies could also use the savings on Center Field to make a run at a one year deal for a veteran pitcher such as Hiroki Kuroda, Ryan Dempster, etc if they don’t feel Morgan or Pettibone are ready.

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      1. I know Salisbury said about a week ago that if the Phillies had traded Cole Hamels to the Angels at the Deadline, Peter Bourjos would’ve come back in the deal. Beyond that, I’m not sure though.

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    5. Bourjos would be an excellent bench guy for the Phils.

      Bourjos also makes sense for a team that continues to emphasize pitching and defense.

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    6. I mentioned this in the other thread when people brought up the subject of buy low and he’s a guy I’ve had my eye on for a while now as a trade candidate. I’m with Larry, he’s got some valueable skill sets that would make him a valuable player if his offense never turns around.

      Another guy I’d consider pursuing? Mark Trumbo. He was AWFUL in the 2nd half of the season and doesn’t have a position with the Angels. They have a log jam beyond just Bourjos considering the outfield’s going to be:

      RF Hunter
      CF Trout
      LF Wells

      More than likely next year. I’m not sure if the Angels are going to make him available considering their need for home run hitters, but he’d be a great fit in our line up in either right or left as a young, controllable, right handed power bat.

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    7. This guy is absolutely worthless.

      The Phillies play in a ridiculous HR park. They need their lineup stacked one through eight with legit HR bats. That’s how you win at CBP, something the Phillies cannot do.

      Sign Josh Hamilton or stay in Clearwater. The Phillies will sign Hamilton, the SCAMMIES will trade for some worthless glove like Bourjos.

      Phillies or SCAMMIES? That is the question.

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  5. I know we are a long ways away from the Draft, but Matt do you or Greg have any intention to begin discussing possible draft pick scenarios? The draft used to be covered well on this site and I hope we can get back to that level. Especially with having a higher pick than we’ve had in a long time I am really excited on what the Phils do.

    I would even love a 2012 draft recap. Sorry if I’m in the minority.

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    1. I like your ideas, but it’s going to be hard to get the same kind of coverage without James being here anymore

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    2. I would love to go in depth on the draft as we get closer especially if we keep the #16 pick but i don’t really want to go to in depth on players until at least April just due to the volatility of high school players in the spring. I can say that based on the past you can expect that the Phillies will be targeting the most toolsy high school athlete whether that is a position player or a starting pitcher (if it is a pitcher find all the guys between 6’3″ and 6’5″ who throw hard with good durability).

      Gregg can answer more about doing a draft recap with more information on these guys than we had pre-draft.

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      1. Thanks guys. Two HS names I will throw out there really early (mostly because I can’t help myself). Justin Williams and Matt McGuire.

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    1. The players name is Stefan Jarrin, a Rookie ball washout. He’s a SS but he hasn’t hit much better than .200 in 2 seasons. I’m not sure why the Phillies didn’t take a pack of gum instead.

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      1. If that is accurate, it’s pretty disappointing. I certainly wasn’t expecting a top prospect, but thought the PTBNL might yield at least a marginal prospect. From the description above, Jarrin doesn’t even appear at meet that criterion.

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  7. For those of you that agree its fair to Judge a GM in hindsight man does it kill me to watch these playoffs.

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    1. Who the heck do you root for in the playoffs? Raul as a Yankee, Werth as a Nat, Pence as a Giant or Thome as an Oriole. Thome for me. Then maybe Raul.

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      1. I was rooting for the Reds. Gah.

        If I was rooting by former Phillies I’d go Thome, then Werth, then Raul, then Pence, then Wilson Valdez.

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        1. I can never ever root for another NL East team….I like Rahul but I can also never root for the Yankees. I think I find the Tigers and that Quentin Berry most likeable.

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    2. so you wanted Rube to pick up Ibanez? A DH only who hit 20 homeruns in the regular season but hit .240? Werth is way overpaid, Thome is a DH, and Pence hit .200 so far in the postseason.

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    3. The only bad move in hindsight is the fact that we ever had Hunter Pence on our team.

      Raul’s a DH at this point.
      Thome would’ve wasted away if he stayed with us.
      Werth got PAIIIIIIIIIIIDDDDDD

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      1. Actually I wasn’t only looking at former Phillies but when you compare what NY got from Rahul and what we got out of Thome and Nix yes I would have kept him. But I also had the Gio Gonsalez move in mind.

        I like that the Tigers are not afraid to play young unknown players. I like what the A’s got out of Crisp and the Cardinals signing of Beltran were deals that stuck out to me.

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  8. I am trying to figure out whether Dom Brown is good enough to at least platoon in the outfield next year. On the one hand, he has looked good at the plate, showing patience and seeing a lot of pitches. His 3.89 pitches per plate appearance would put him in the top 25% of major league hitters if he played regularly. On the other hand a BA of .236 is not really viable for an outfielder. Despite his shorter swing, his BA and OBP (.316 in 2012) were actually slightly lower than in 2011. He is striking out in 16% of his at bats, which is not terrible, but his BABIP in 2012 was .260, which seems awfully low for a guy who often hits the hall hard. In short, he gives the impression of being a good hitter, but the numbers don ‘t bear it out. Is he just hitting in bad luck in a relatively small sample size, or is he going to struggle to break .250 BA, a la Mayberry.

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    1. Towards the end of the year he began hitting with more drive and fewer rolling over the ball to the second baseman. He is having his ailing knees worked on this off-season so maybe a healthy Brown will be a better Brown in 2013.

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    2. He was making a lot of weak contact during stretches. I wouldn’t say its all BABIP misfortune. He did add a power-stroke closer to the end of the season. I’m hoping its still the side effect of a bulky knee and a healing hamate. I fully expect him to come out strong in Spring Training and remove any doubts about our 2013 Left Fielder.

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    3. Excellent question. What I see when I watch him is a hitter who has solid pitch recognition skills and does a great job getting into FB counts. But I also see a player who just misses a lot of FB’s. He’s getting pitches to hit but he’s not getting to them. He seems to foul them back more often than he squares them up.

      Could be a simple adjustment but I can’t imagine time is on his side.

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    4. Whatever his progression between now and next season, I don’t like the idea of platooning him. It’d be like throwing in the towel on him as an everyday player. I know his numbers against lefties stunk this year but they weren’t bad at all in the minors. He should be the everyday RF starting next season.

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    5. I want to push back slightly on the weak contact comments. His line drive percentage was 20.6, which is good, and his infield fly percentage was very lower, so he wasn’t popping up much.

      “Weak contact” is a real thing, but generally manifests itself in the batted ball data (low line drive percentage, mainly). IMO often when a player is having true bad BABIP luck, people start “seeing” weak contact where it doesn’t really exist.

      That said, I do think we are at the point where the bloom has faded on him a bit as a prospect (even apart from the questions about his hitting, his fielding metrics still aren’t what you would like to see), But he’s still enough of a prospect, and the team’s OF options weak enough (with two other spots to fill) that he should be given all of 2013 as an every day player.

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    6. My opinion might be a bit different. Fiirst of all, there’s no reason to platoon him because he takes lefties to left field very well. Dom is certainly a tough guy to figure out and I’m sure the Phils in their organazation meeting will talk about him quite a bit. When I watch him, I see a guy still not sure of his swing. First, he had a long swing that generated power but it included several holes that major league pitchers exposed, then he moved his hands lower and really looked uncomfortable, then last off season he worked with Gary Sheffield and changed his siwng again to stay more balanced but with a shorter swing. Early in the season, he looked uncomfrtable and eventually changed his swing again to the one he had some success with and he brought it to Philly with him. His shortened swing definitely sacrificed power and caused him to hit to left a lot because he was always late. Then he started extending his arms and rolling over on grounders to 2nd. When he actually took a full cut on an inside fastball a few times, he hit the heck out of the ball so I know the power ability is still there and his pitch recognition is very good. I’ve never seen a guy with so much athletic talent at his age who just can’t seem to find a consistent hitting style that he can be successful with. This is the kind of thing that normally happens in A ball but Dom is still looking for his swing. Having said that, I still think he has a world of talent and he seems to work hard at improving and wants to get better. His defense is night and day better than it was even including small things like he catches the ball with his hand facing the correct direction now which he didn’t used to do and which caused balls to bounce out (little leaguers often have the same problem). The Phils’ two new batting coaches will be spending lots of time with Dom. Put his name in the lineup every day and I think he has a chance to become a very good player but, it might take another year. We’re not going to win without him (or Ruf) becoming a very good player because we need production from a cheap source so I say let him play.

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  9. Brown seemed to have a hard time barreling up on the ball for most of his time in the show this year. LOTS of fastballs that he fouled off, lots of weak balls in play. when he connects, he has pop and he does have a pretty good eye, so maybe more AB’s will yield more solid contact.

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  10. I’ve seen comments elsewhere on the Phils signing Josh Hamilton and wanted to put forward this thought. He’s an unconventional athlete so for him an unconventional contract suggestion. I could see the Phils offering him a 4-year contract at $25 M a season with attainable targets allowing a fifth season to vest at the same cost. There’s a risk with Hamilton and to address that I would include clauses that allowed the Phils to buy out the contract for $2 M after the second season or for $3M after the third season. That way Hamilton incurs a major penalty for risky behavior or if he just can’t stay on the field due to injury.

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    1. Josh Hamillton is just too risky to sign beyond a couple years so I would pass on him if he wants a long term contract.

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      1. I don’t want Hamilton period. I did not like his swing against the lefty in the play in, er play off game… I know it was a small sample but i would just hate another middle of the order lefty who cant hit lefties anymore. He is on the down turn in my opinion with wayyyyyy too much baggage.

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        1. If you know it’s a small sample then why are you focused on it? He hit .290 against lefties this year and .282 against righties. I don’t really want him either but but there are plenty of other reasons besides him being a lefthanded bat.

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          1. I see it as a sign of things to come. I see a degrading skill that mirrors another individual who has the same growing hole already in our lineup for the next 4 years. I understand he has hit well in the past versus lefties but i am looking at the next few years and having two lefties who can’t hit lefties is worse than one lefty who can’t hit lefties in the middle of the order. I feel this is a legitimate conversation to have.

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        2. In fact, is there any MLB team that will want Hamilton at that price? Even the Rangers may make him a courtesy offer not to offend. Red Sox do not want to go that route anymore. And then again, he probably wants to go to a contending team also.

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    2. Atlanta can afford to sign Hamilton.

      As can the Nats.

      The new TV dollars from those national contracts mean the Pirates could sign Hamilton for seven years and $175 million as well.

      The Phillies can pay or they can be a disaster again next year. Or maybe they can empty their farm system sending their five best prospects to San Diego and hope Headley has another monster year in him.

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  12. The Arizona Diamondbacks are considering making Gerardo Parra available. If so, he’s my #1 target. He’s young, an ELITE defender and proved he can hit in this league.

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      2. It’s really not though:
        .300/.353/.452
        .263/.315/.357

        for his career home/away. Obviously the OPS isn’t where you’d want it on the road, but given the size of our ballpark, I wouldn’t expect his numbers to come down that much.

        In his best offensive season:

        .305/.380/.453
        .281/.337/.405

        It’s about a .100 point difference in OPS… but again, I think he can hit enough away from Chase field (and still has room to grow as a hitter overall) and contribute defensively to make any decline in offense from him a wash.

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    2. While Parra certainly has value, I don’t think we can afford to bring in an empty bat to fill a full time role. Parra isn’t a run producer, doesn’t necessarily have great OBP or base-stealing skills and doesn’t hit for power. Although a great corner defender who can handle center, the Phils need to improve their offense and with this in mind, I’d be more inclined to go with Mayberry over Parra

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      1. I look at him as a guy who could burst onto the scene (like Brett Gardner or Josh Reddick) and is incredibly cheap, which would allow them to try for a big right handed bat in left field (who that is i don’t know).

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    3. Just what we need another lefthanded hitter corner OF, and without much pop. And where do you bat him in the lineup?

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      1. 7th or 8th..

        He’s not a corner outfielder. He’s a center fielder playing left (think Brett Gardner).

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    4. Are you freakin’ retarded?

      The Phillies need HR bats one through eight.

      Look at the Yankees. Same park as the Phillies. 245 HR for the Yankees, 158 HR for the impotent Phillies.

      Or should I write their name as SCAMMIES?

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  14. I could see the Phillies signing Victorino on a short contract. Statistically he had a down year so he might he may not get the type of deal he’s looking for. He mashed lefties which the Phils need, but was just awful against righties last year. Probably not ready to platoon, hmm.

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    1. I suspect Victorino is going to find a stagnant market for his services. 2yr/18mil a stretch? It’s probably difficult to forecast until the market plays out but he’s be remiss to hold out for a 4-5 yr contract. That ain’t going to happen

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      1. I don’t think the Dodgers will tender Victorino and I think he is going to have a very hard time getting paid what he got last year. Oddly, he could be a very good value for someone, but I still think the Phillies need to pass. They need a different environment on, and urgency for, the team and I think he makes it more difficult for them to foster that atmosephere, even though he is certainly not a bad guy.

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  15. Big games yesterday for Galvis and Gillies in their Venezuela openers.
    I’m intrigued by what it would take to get Bourjos and what kind of a player he could be in the NL. I think he or Chris Young will be in CF for us next year. Young will cost us less to trade for because he makes much more but he’s a guarantee for 20/20 even though he’ll porobably hit 240. I don’t think there’s any way the Phils will give up that 16th pick to overpay for Upton or Bourn. Even Pagan will be overpaid in this market. I really believe the Phils will find a right handed hitting corner OF to trade for. Cuddyer and Willingham are the obvious 1st two names on the list but I’m sure there are others. I’m just not sure what it will cost to get this bat. I keep hoping Valle plus a good, but not great, pitching prospect will be enough but it might take more since multiple teams are looking for the same thing. If a trade for a big bat to bat 5th happens, I wonder if Charlie would consider moving Chase to 2nd in the order with Chooch 3rd. Jimmy, Chase, Chooch, Howard, Cuddyer type, Dom, Chris Young, Fransden/Galvis platoon would give a nice right/left balance.

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    1. I agree with most of this. (I am a little nervous about buying high on Willingham, and I think it’s possible that they wouldn’t have to forfeit a pick for Upton.) I think, however, that the market is a little unpredictable this year. There actually are an unusually large number of decent CF candidates on the market this season. It’s true that each of them is flawed in one respect or another, but that suggests lower, not higher prices. I could see the relative glut of center fielders, combined with their various flaws, somewhat depressing the market. Also a possible factor pointing to possibly more reasonable FA contracts is that the recent track record of teams giving out large free agent contracts is mixed at best.

      On the other hand, the fact that there is a lot more television money, national and local, in the pipeline, may push free agent prices up – not just for center fielders, but generally. Also a factor generally (but not so much for center fielders this year) is the increasing tendency for teams to lock up young players long term pre-free agency, buying out multiple free agent seasons, thus reducing the supply of quality free agents.

      So I don’t really know what to expect from the Free agent market this season. Longer term, the combination of the flood of television money and the relatively static luxury tax threshold push in opposite directions, but probably works against the teams currently near the threshold, which includes the Phillies.

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      1. The influx of tv money could have teams spendng that don’t normally spend. Plus the Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs have enough money to spend whatever they want on whoever they want. Interestingly, none of them, nor the Yankees, need a CF. What do you think of Ludwick? He resurrected himself this year after two down years and will definitely be a FA after he turns down his $5M option.

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        1. Ludwick – mixed feelings. On the one hand, you could see him as a “buy high” risk like Willingham. OTOH … it’s not like his performance this year was inflated by BIP luck, and you really could argue that 2011 was the season out of context for his career. I guess it just depends on price. he’s a guy that makes sense on a 2 year deal for less than 10 million per year, but anything more than that, probably not – especially for a team like the Phillies who ideally would like to get younger. Not sure he is any better than a Nix/Mayberry platoon (or similar low cost options), and Brown really needs to get a full season shot at the other corner OF spot.

          IMO given team needs combined with player availability, it looks like corner outfielders might be a little overpriced this season compared to centerfielders. Though given all of the conflicting factors it’s hard to prdict what the market will look like.

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      1. Dom doesn’t steal any bases and although he’s improved he’s still not a very good base runner despite his speed. For now, he looks like a #6 hitter after a right handed 5th bat.

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  16. All three Phils (Asche, Joesph and Collier) in the lineup for Peoria and Kyle Simon starting. I suspect he’s pitch only and inning or two though

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      1. There arent many starting pitchers on the staff. A lot of teams dont send starters because they have high inning count during the season.

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  18. With the names out there to play center, i would rather have victorino back on a two year deal, if possible,just think he has more baseball in him, and brings you some power, speed and pretty good center fielder, just dont know if guys like bourgos, young make you that much better, and to have to give up prospect will hurt, first what makes you think teams will want valle?? if you read the people on here most think he is a backup maybe, he doesnt walk so in some peoples opinion he cant play in majors. willingham is scary agree with that,I look at the cardinals and wonder if we can find a beltan out there for a year .who can produce, The only problem with wait and see is amaro.He just dives in,per his move with pap last year, he overpaid ,he never lets the market play out, there are going to be guys out there,better than the opinions on here,this is a wait and see what develops process imo.chooch hitting third would be a double play nightmare,

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  19. Somebody explain the Cardinals to me. On the whole, average or mediocre regular season teams the past 5/6 years, barely get in the playoffs a few times, and they win two WSs and maybe going to another. What do they have historically,10 or11 World Series’…’NL Yankees’ without the hype. Is it the Missouri water?

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    1. A couple things, the first being the playoffs are still dominated by statistical noise, they have been really lucky the last two times that they won (by luck I mean they were not the best team in the league they just happened to win at the right time). Right now they are the best hitting team in the national league and they have some good starting pitchers. They also have a ton of depth which in the playoffs if used right (LaRussa was a good tactical manager) can give them incremental advantages. But when you really look at it they were one insanely pitched game by Carpenter (Game 5 NLDS) and one strike away from the World Series last year. The playoffs are a complete crapshoot you just have to get it.

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      1. Cardinals have a good line-up mix with a bunch of guys who generally don’t strike-out much but still have extra-base power. But as Matt stated above, the playoffs are a crapshoot that can hinge on a break or two and the Cardinals have had(made) things break in their favor.

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    2. Only if you explain why the Braves with different players and managers always take “THE LUMP” in the fall.

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  20. I am really intruiged by the mention of Mark Trumbo…I wonder if he’s “get-able” and what it would cost?? He could also be a possible 3Baseman if we didn’t mind him learning on the job. Speakin’ of possible 3B…if the Padres are gonna hold on to Chase Headly (and why wouldn’t they), maybe AAA guy Jedd Gyorko would be able to be had. I know they’re tryin’ him at 2B but he’s a definite 3B prospect with a high baseball IQ and decent tools. He’s a lot closer to Third then Franco/Asche and offers more power then Fransden/Galvis.

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    1. I wouldn’t mind Trumbo in a corner OF spot if the cost was right. He is a 20 third baseman at best. I know this is small sample size but at third base this year he had 14 chances, he recorded 5 putouts, 5 assists, and 4 errors (1 fielding, 2 throwing, 1 mystery) his UZR/150 from fangraphs was -99.2, putting into perspective, the worse qualifying 3B was Cabrera with a -11.2 UZR/150. As for Gyorko, that isn’t a terrible idea except that he might cost as much as Headley when you factor in that he is under team control for 6 years (2-3 at the minimum) and teams just don’t move those kind of guys.

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    2. Jedd Gyorko hummmm. I was prepared to give you some stupid retort but aside from the facts that iit is the PCL and he runs like a turtle I can’t.

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      1. Thanks, I guess…for not being a total douche. PCL or not…the dude has wheels enough to tally 30 doubles and has 5 more SB’s this season then Howard/Polanco/Frandsen combined (spoiler…Gyorko had 5 and they had 0). Whether you are a Stat head or follow traditional metrics…..he OBVIOUSLY has serious skills. Power/Glove/OPS/SLG/Hits for Avg/etc AND he can play at a position where I’d BEG for someone like Charlie Hayes at this point.
        I agree with MattWinks opinion on teams generally not giving up on controllable players.

        http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2811

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        1. Missed the doubles maybe some reports are wrong about his speed or maybe he is a heady player. But i still can’t say his name.

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        2. BA published their PCL Top 20 today and he was #10 (don’t worry the PCL was infinitely better than the IL, he was between Grandal and Odorizzi). Their scouting report had him as a above average hitter for both power and average (60 on both tools), he is a below average runner (40). He is a below average second baseman and is slightly above average at third, he is a guy who should hit 20-25 HRs with ~.290 average at his peak, in other words he profiles as David Freese offensively if he does what he is projected to do. I just don’t see a way that they move him for anything reasonable (considering there is a ton of risk as a player with no real major league experience)

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            1. I don’t think San Diego is looking for pitching, they can “create” good starters with their ball park. From their recent trade history (look at the Matt Latos trade) their philosophy is to just get as much value in each trade as possible, I would think their conversation would begin with Quinn and go from there.

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  21. BP Monday Morning 10 Pack – http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18670
    Cesar Hernandez making an appearance, nothing much new, good at a bunch of things but not great at any. Has nothing more than gap power, has good speed but poor instincts. Scouts peg him as a future utility player, the new information is that he could be average defensively at shortstop (a position he has not played in 4+ years) in small bursts making him have a future on a major league bench in the utility roles

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    1. Sounds about right.

      In order to take a major step forward, Cesar would really have to fill out and drive the ball more or get on base a lot more – or perhaps a little of both. Neither of those things seem likely right now and he appears on track to become a utility player.

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  22. My lineup:
    1.BROWN the get on base AAA Brown
    2.UTLEY retreat hell ,just attack in another direction
    3.PAGAN fits in a lot of ways
    4.HOWARD but truthfully i have health doubts
    5.RUIZ need I say more
    6.RUF make them pay for not pitching to chooch
    7.ROLLINS crying towel optional
    8.ASCHE etc
    Subject to revision

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    1. Given those options of players, I’d rather have Pagan at 1 or 2 and Utley keeps his customary spot at #3.

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    2. Switch Rollins and Brown in the order…..Manuel will do it anyways. Jimmy will be the lead-off guy until the duration of his Philly playing days.

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        1. Setting aside the fact that that is a pretty low bar, there are 3 changes from the end of 2012:

          Ruf – substantially worse.

          Asche (setting aside the absurdity of suggesting that he start the season as the regular third baseman): somewhat hard to say, given conflicting reports on his defense. Frandsen was decent; I’d say at best this would be no worse than 2012.

          Pagan – comparing 2 guys (Pagan and Mayberry) who are plus defenders in LF and RF, less so in center … I’d give the edge to Pagan, but not by enough to offset the downgrade defensively in left and possible downgrade defensively at third.

          On the whole, what concerns me most about the above suggestion – defensively, at least – is that you’re weak to very weak at both corner OF slots and average in CF. I say no to that. I’m on the record regarding my skepticism of Ruf as a regular anyway, but in the unlikely event that the team does go in that direction, they better acquire a CF who provides plus plus defense, especially with Brown in RF.

          I’m actually on board with the Brown leading off suggestion, IF he can get his BA up to .270 or so, but I don’t think it will happen.

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          1. That is, I DO think he can get his BA up to .270, but I don’t think the team will lead him of regardless.

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  23. Consider: Utley’s contract runs out after the ’13 season. His play at 2nd base has become as questionable as his knees BUT he could be a great fit as a DH in the AL.

    Galvis can fill in for him at 2nd base as a superior fielder with his offense a work in progress…

    Meanwhile we lack outfielders, one for CF and one for a righty hitter in LF. Among the prospects of all 29 other teams there certainly should be some of them ready to get this team younger and with a better future. (I still see Asche at 3rd in Philly some time in ’13; by mid-season unless he goes south)

    In addition, let’s trade Lee, too. He retains very good value and could be convinced to waive any no-trade clause if the trade is to a pennant contender. He should bring back some good pitching prospects plus another infielder to supplement Asche and Galvis.

    “It is better to trade one year too early than one year too late”

    This team desperately needs hungry and young better players than they have “ready” in their own system. This plan emulates the one that made the Oakland A’s into a team with a fine present and good immediate future.

    The Phils are a tired, well-paid group of aging players whose past won’t carry the present and future without some “radical’ moves as suggested. Whether RAJ would make such initially unpopular moves like these is my big question.

    Without these kiind of moves the team will continue to be an “also ran” status for the near years ahead.

    Have at it…!

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  25. Oh, and I’d prepare to have Gillies (absent injury) come up sometime in ’13 should his ’12 season be carried forward to LV . There: youth and talent to keep us gratified for seasons to come.

    Let’s get on with it!

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