General Discussion–Week of October 1

Other Stuff

Your place to talk about anything this week.  Arizona Fall league opens up next week!

349 thoughts on “General Discussion–Week of October 1”

    2. I think the Phillies will acquire another starter, either through a trade or free agency.

      I see the rotation as Hamels, Halladay, Lee, other starter [Edwin Jackson on a 3-year deal?], Kendrick or Worley.

      Tyler Cloyd will not be in the starting rotation, nor should he be.

      Like

      1. I think EJ would be a nice fit for this team but Kendrick and his much improved change-up have earned a spot in our rotation. Worley’s a lock if healthy and Cloyd has earned the 6 starter spot for the time being.

        In a perfect world, the Phils can sign a few fringe veterans to LV as a contingency plan, but LV is going to have its share of youngsters in their rotation. Erwin Santana is an interesting name as well as I doubt he gets a multi-year deal on the open market, though is HR ratios are ghastly

        Like

      2. There are other holes on the team. I think signing a FA starter would be wasting money. Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Kendrick, Worley, Pettibone, Martin, May should be enough depth. I’d expect them to sign a AAAA journeyman type starter also.

        Like

      1. Yeah, but I’m not stating what I would do but, rather, what I think the Phillies will do. I think they are going to acquire another seasoned starting pitcher, whether we think they should or not. Ruben’s history suggests he is all about pitching all the time.

        Like

        1. If Amaro spend money on pitching I expect it to be by overpaying a reliever. For them to sign a pitcher without trading one would mean they are really worried about Worley and Halladay’s health going forward

          Like

  2. another starter why?? i am okay with there starters its there bullpen and lineup that has to be fixed. need that right handed bat with power to help protect howard, and drive in more runs.

    Like

  3. I don’t know about you, but I’m liking what I’m seeing in Ruf. The kid has got above average power and a great eye at the plate. I hope he can play the outfield.

    Like

    1. He does seem to have a pretty good plate approach. I haven’t seen him even flinch at a breaking ball in the dirt so far, yet he has no walks. I think they’ll come if he keeps getting plate appearances.

      Like

      1. Nolasco made him look a little silly with his changeup the other night, but overall he’s looked pretty comfortable at the plate.

        Like

  5. I think this off season is a big one for Amaro. He needs to get the line-up balanced so it takes off the pressure with the starting pitchers. He needs to find a bat in the outfield and a 3rd baseman. The thing is though…can Ruf be that bat and can Asche be the 3rd baseman. Ruf has looked good but will be be like Mayberry in the sense that he looks good at times and then looks lost. Asche is intriguing because we need a 3rd baseman and he has done nothing but impress. Franco too. They should look at wright if he hits the market. The phillies need to do something because this team has holes that have caused the ship to start to sink. They also don’t need to overpay in certain players(bourn or Upton).

    Hopefully Asche and Ruf play really good this winter and make Amaros work a lot easier.

    Like

    1. I don’t think Asche for next year is even on the radar nor should he be. Zero chance. Some chance of a mid season call up if he hits really well in AAA and if the major league option ends up injured or ineffective, but I wouldn’t wish for that. Hopefully he is ready by 2013.

      Ruf we have discussed to the point where there isn’t much more to say. I don’t share the disdain some people around here have for free agent signings, but certainly it is possible that, either because they can’t sign a left fielder for a reasonable price, or because they spend their money at another position of need, e.g. center field, they will have to fill the left field position internally. I doubt that the presence of Ruf will stop the team from signing a left fielder, though – what people around here in my opinion fail to account for is the fact that decisions for next year need to be taken before they have any clear idea of how players progress over the winter. As it stands now, it would be a mistake for the Phillies to pencil Ruf in as their left fielder, and it is a mistake I am confident that they won’t make.

      That said, if they are in a position where the alternative is a left field platoon (say Nix or Shierholtz and Mayberry) and IF – big if – Ruf makes dramatic progress in his fielding over the winter, I suppose their is some chance he could win the job in spring training. I am, as my many prior comments have made clear, far less excited than many about such a prospect, mainly because I am convinced that, even if he makes progress as a fielder, he’s likely to cost the team almost as much in the field as he gives them at the plate. Really the notion of Ruf as an every day left fielder is more a sign of how far the team has fallen than anything else.

      Note that from a purely baseball perspective, the notion of Ruf platooning with Howard (and available off the bench occasionally in left) is far more attractive, but I don’t see the team platooning Howard. Whether that is a correct decision in “big picture” terms or not I don’t know.

      Like

      1. MLB Rumors reports that the Rockies may make Fowler and/or Cuddyer available. Both would be great fits IMO though I’m unsure what it would take to get them. Worley, May, Colvin and Ruf? I should have prefaced that I don’t have a high opinion of Colvin.

        Cuddyer’s defensive flexibility is intriguing while Fowler would be a welcome addition to the outfield and the lineup. I hate hypotheticals, but couldn’t resist this one

        Like

        2. More like Dom Brown ilo of Ruf, and they will probably say keep Colvin and instead we will take a PTBNL. Uh oh!

          Like

          2. As anonymous confirmed, Cuddyer AND Fowler. And yes, (Worley, May, Colvin and Ruf) in a heartbeat

            Like

            1. Gotcha. I would do that also. I might rather just trade for Fowler though, depending on how much less we’d give up.

              Like

            2. Fowler will cost much more because his cost is so much less. Cuddyer was paid too much and that will make it harder for them to trade him and will make the cost to a team like the Phils less. Both would look good in our lineup and the Rockies want to start over. I guess asking for Tulo would be pushing it…..

              Like

            3. I agree with Fowler (switch hitter with speed, nice OBP and plays CF)… for a reasonable price). Saw that and asked some Rockies fans what they would want….No direct response but they say thyey want pitching and OFs – no more infielders – but I suspect Worley and May and maybe a Gillies gets it done. Ruf is viewed as a throw-in for now.

              Apparently, Tulo might be available but we dont have the kind of prospects or young talent it would take (Machado, Profar, Andrus,etc.) . In that case, they would apparently want a high-end IF back as well (again according to some of their fans..fwiw

              Like

        1. nowheels, say what you will about my opinions, but in terms of “my radar being broken,” i probably have one of the better track records around here in terms of being proven right by events. Now, part of the reason for that is that I tend to be conservative in my predictions, rarely going out on a limb, but regardless I do tend to get things right.

          Like

          4. Larry I do believe that you are one of the smarter contributor on this site, and I for one enjoy reading them.

            Like

          5. Larry, you are a very polarizing figure on this board as you make some good points but usually in a condescending putdown. It is a shame that you could not objectively respond to the Cody Asche discussion like Allentown did.

            Like

          1. Here’s my take on Asche at the Bank in 2013..in June/July that is. The Phillies know that Mikael Franco is the long-term guy, 2014/2015, Asche then becomes playing with house-money so to speak. If they hit the jack-pot with him, he becomes Ruben’s next trade phodder package material as Franco eases onto the scene. Unless they decide to try to relocate him to replace Utley at 2nd.

            Like

            1. There is no way to be sure Franco is the long term guy. A guy that had a terrific half season in A ball is not a certainty. We certainly all hope that Franco will continue to develop. Asche is a much more definite prospect after doing what he did at AA. However, he has no shot at starting in Philly in 2013, at least not until late in the season if he hits at LHV.

              Like

        3. Gotta disagree with you here, strongly. Larry is right – Asche is not anywhere near RAJs radar for a 2013 third basemen and correctly so.

          Like

    2. As much as that would be rushing Asche, it seems like a possible option.
      I do not see the Utley move to 3B as being one that flies.
      There are not any good options available via FA.
      The internal options are Polanco, Frandsen, MiniMart, and Galvis.
      None truly inspire.
      Maybe Amaro is able to figure out some option, but the idea of Asche appears much less far fetched when one starts reviewing all of the possible options.

      Still not likely, but when the options are examined increases in possibility.

      Like

        1. For this season…………..
          They removed any chance he would see game action at 3B this year and will not be planned to be there next year but since I do not expect the Phils to grab a 3B in the off season there is still a CHANCE he could be there next year. But as I said, I do not see it happening.

          Like

    1. I agree, any way we could get a Roman Quinn/NYP discussion page to not make it part of all of the Phillies major league club discussion

      Like

      1. SAL league top 20 comes out on 10/3. There may be a site somewhere that discusses the topic.

        Like

  7. Given a fair chance Ashe is with the team out of SP. Write it down and we will talk in APRIL

    Like

    1. All you need to do is look at the options and you realize that is not so far fetched….
      Look at the FA list and shudder.
      Look at the possible Trade Targets and the asking price is through the roof.

      Like

      1. No chance. Zero. Fransden or Galvis are not great options, but the team will go with one of them before Asche regardless of what Asche does in spring training. (Still holding out hope for a better option, though I agree that the pickings are slim.)

        We can debate whether that SHOULD be the case – and I think the team is right to be cautious with Asche, but there is some room for argument – but there is no chance, at all, that Asche will in fact start the year as trhe team’s regular thrir baseman.

        Like

        1. Really for me, the only guys out there I might want are:

          Youkilis (really adds a dimension needed in this line up regardless of his injury history recently).
          Rolen (still can play defense)… won’t happen.
          Jeff Keppinger
          Marco Scutaro

          Like

          1. I would take Keppinger or Scutaro if cheap and short term deals. Colorado has two third basemen. Don’t remember names but they both have good OBP. Neither is a star but to hit 2nd or 8th would be fine with me. Headley in a trade would be interesting and honestly, so would Alverez if they make him available while his value is at its peak. (I know he K’s a ton so that is trouble with him and Howard back to back…maybe hit him behind chooch?)

            Like

            1. Nelson and Pacheco were the two guys from the Rockies. I’d prefer Nelson and give him a shot if they can get him. Maybe a young reliever gets it done. Diekman?

              Like

        2. And Ruf has ZERO chance to be a Major League Regular.
          I get it.
          You hate all Phillies prospects so you say that have no chance.
          Considering most prospects do NOT pan out you think you look smart.
          But you don’t.

          Like

          1. Really not called for. And it massively distorts my positions regarding Ruf AND Phillies prospects in general. So nasty AND wrong. Maybe I’m not the one to talk on the former, but on the latter I at least try to accurately charterize opinions with which io disagree.

            Like

          2. It’s amusing to watch the dim-witted gentlemen gang up on larrym. It’s a highlight of my daily visit to the site.

            Like

            2. The Law comparison I take as a compliment, though he and I share soem of the same faults also – snarkiness, arrogance. He gets paid a bit more for this stuff than I do.

              Like

      2. They’re not going to rush Asche. Worse case Scenario, they’d platoon Galvis and Fransden.

        Like

    2. If the OF picture is rectified with the acquisition of a solid veteran RH bat, like one of the Uptons, and Howard and Utley both start in April healthy and ready to go, then Asche could be gambled to play third and bat in the 7/8-hole. Frandsen, I assume will be on the team and still be available to play third vs tough LHP.

      Like

      1. Let’s put aside the “will” (going with Asche would be so absurdly out of character for the organization that I really think that it’s silly to speculate that it might happen). Talk about the “should.” I’m not why people think it would be a good idea. Yeah, there’s the crowd who think he’s likely to immediately hit as well in the majors as well as he did in Reading. Set those peopel aside, I know you’re not one of them. What could we reasonably expect from Asche if he is rushed to the majors next year? Hitting, some chance of serious adjustment problems tot he extent that he isn’t even an upgrade over Galvis/Frandsen. Some smaller chance that he really hits the ground running. Most likely somewhere in between, a little better than Frandsen/Galvis. Defensively less clear, reports on him have been all over the map, but I thinkt he best case – again, at this stage, is equal to Frandsen, not as good as Galvis.

        So, most likely, you rush him to the majors you’re looking at maybe – maybe – a little better than the alternatives. Or maybe not. After all, Galvis could improve his hitting a bit, add in defense, he might even be preferable. Again, all this is short run, 2012, not 2013.

        But weigh against that some chance that you’re going to mess up his development. Why would the team take that risk for what looks, in the short term, like a marginal upgrade at best?

        Reading the comments here lately it sounds like people think we’re the Houston Astros. I could be wrong I guess about these particular players (and as I have said many times in the past, I’m wildly more optimistic than the scouting consensus on both players), but the very fact that people are seriously suggesting that Ruf and Asche should be regulars next year is either a sign of how far the franchise has fallen, poor judgment from the fans here, or both.

        Like

        1. When I look at Asche I see a guy who has a high adaptability factor. The three years at the Big 12 D-1 level and the year and half professional proved to be challenging and good experince for him. And in almosy every instint, he started slowly and emerged improving, exception being July/August 2011. IMO he has the maturity required, With that being said, out of ST he may start poorly and thus dictate a LHV roster spot. However, if the AFL and ST tours turn out to be exceptional offensive performances, he will be probably be mentioned as an alternative for the third base solution. Still starting third in Philly in April is a gamble/risk, like you mentioned earlier, a June/July call-up from LHV would be more in line if he is doing well at LHV.

          Like

          1. I hear you, that is I understand where you are coming from while disagreeing with you, but I think you are missing the forest for the trees. For perspective, it is exceedingly rare for any prospect to find himself with regular major league jobs out of spring training after just 68 games in AA the previous year. The few rare exceptions are players who are regarded as among the top prospects in baseball, usually early first round picks. And it is extremely rare even for those type of players. Now, I happen to think that there are very good reasons for this. But now setting the “should” aside, I think that is is bizzare to think that an organization like the Phillies, historially conservative with prospects, would go out on the limb like that with Asche.

            Here is a question for you: set aside mid season call ups, a few high bonus signees from abroad, and a few high first round picks regarded as among the top prospects in baseball. Have there been any prospects in major league baseball in the past 20 years who have won jobs as a position regular out of spring training with less than (say) 75 games at AA and above? It is not a rhetorical question, I don’t know the answer, but I certainly can’t think of any.

            Asche is a real prospect – moreso than (say) Ruf – but the question that people advocating him as the regular in 2013 need to ask themselves is: is he so special that he’ll be given a regular job out of spring training with less minor league experience above A ball than virtually anyone over the past couple of decades? I think the answer is no. Mike Trout had 91 games in AA in 2011, along with a 40 game taste of the majors, and even he started 2012 in AAA. Ryan Braun had only 59 games in AA, but started 2007 in AAA before being called up tio win the ROY award.Evan Longoria had over 150 games combined between AA and AAA before winning a regular job in the majors. And Asche is no Mike Trout or Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria. Longeria was baseball’s #7 prospect in 2007, and he still played the whole season in AA and AAA.

            And this is what I mean. Even you, and you know what you are talking about and are at least thinking about it logically, are, I think, getting carried away. Even if Asche was one of the top prospects in the game, and he isn’t, it would be unlikely that he would start 2013 as a major league regular.

            Like

            1. In answer to your question – Albert Pujols played only a handful of games above A ball before he made the majors for St. Louis out of ST in 2001, but that’s pretty heady company. And going back a little further, Ken Griffey, Jr. made the Mariners out of ST in 1989 after playing 17 at AA.

              And I generally agree with you. Even if Asche far exceeds all expectations in spring training, the most aggressive placement for him is likely to be AAA where he would probably play, at minimum, another 2 to 3 months and that’s assuming he plays like a star. Frankly, per my prediction several months ago, I do think he will end 2013 in the majors, but most likely as a September call up.

              Like

            2. Larry, that might have been the case before Joe Jordan took over but look at what Joe Jordan has done. He moved Cesar Hernandez, Jonathan Pettibone, Sebastian Valle and Tyler Cloyd up to AAA. Adam Morgan and Cody Asche were promoted to AA so a new pattern has emerged where prospects can dictate their own progression.

              Like

            3. I agree that Jordan probably has, on the margin, changed the Phillies’ minor league philosophy somewhat in this regard. Two things:

              The first is that he’s not the guy, or at least not the main guy, making decisions about the major league roster. i wouldn’t expect this somewhat greater aggressiveness would translate to promotions to the majors, except indirectly since players will move more quickly thrugh the minor league system. To take Asche for example, pre-Jordan hge would have spent all season in A+, next year in AA, and 2014 in AAA, so that he wouldn’t be a real prospect for the team till 2015. Jordan’s aggressiveness with him means he is about a season further along, but that puts him at 2014, not 2013.

              Secondly, not to beat a dead horse, but my main point is that even a very aggressive organization wouldn’t put him in a starting role in 2013. What people are proposing is that the Phillies treat Asche much more aggressively than teams than teams treat budding superstars such as Longeria and Trout and Braun. Won’t happen, shouldn’t happen. That’s what I mean about not seeing the forest for the trees – Asche starting 2013 as the regular third baseman would be close to unprecedented in modern baseball history (at least for a prospect of his stature).

              Like

            4. Larry, Joe Jordan has the autonomy to make these decisions as Amaro has shown that he supports these promotions in the past months. Why are you treating Cody Asche with kid gloves? If Asche tears it up Spring Training in batting and fields well why hold him back if he is the best solution available.

              Like

            5. “Tearing it up” in spring training tells nothing about if the guy is ready to take over the everyday 3b job. I agree that there is zero chance that Asche starts 2013 as the Phillies 3b unless all other options are injured.

              IF he’s still tearing it up in AAA-ball come July, then maybe that changes depending on who they have playing 3b but he’s not getting the big league job after 250 at-bats in Reading and basically 1 full minor league season.

              Like

            6. 3up, agree with you in that Asche would be a long shot to join the Phillies this year which is why I said if he was the best option available for the Phillies. I expect the Phillies to pursue Kevin Youkilis on a 1-2 year contract with Scott Rolen as a long shot on a similiar deal. Youkillis would provide a power RH bat who will work the pitcher and allow the Phillies to split up Utley and Howard with Ruiz/Youkillis to balance the lineup. The risk is keeping Mr. Youkillis healthy and on the field.

              Like

            7. Why are you expecting the Phillies to treat Asche more aggressively than virtually every prospect in major league baseball over the past 20 years, much more aggressively than much more highly regarded players have been treated?

              People give me grief for arrogance and being condescending, but honestly sometimes it is merited. It’s one thing to say that, for whatever reason, the Phillies should do something basically unprecedented in modern baseball history (Pujols is not a precedent for reasons which should be abundantly obvious), it’s quite another to state that failure to do so is somehow treating a player with kid gloves.

              The simple fact is that my own suggestions about how to handle Asche, far from being a “kid gloves” approach, would be condemded as overly aggresssive by most knowledgeable baseball people.

              This isn’t even a close call. It’s not in the realm of where reasonable people can differ. It’s like you guys woke up and swore, just swore, that the sun rose in the west this morning, and just can’t see how I persist in claiming that it stil rises in the east.

              Like

            8. I’m not sure who you were responding to, but I agree with you. I wasn’t comparing him to Pujols – there’s no comparison. I was just answering the non-rhetorical question you posed. Nothing more or less.

              Like

            9. Catch,

              Wasn’t responding to you, you’re fine. Was responding to philabaltfan.

              What frustrates me, and this isn’t you, is the typical pattern of:

              (1) Someone touts a prospect;
              (2) I respond with strong evidence that undercuts the argument,
              (3) Person responds to me, ignores my evidence/arguments, comes back with a comment basically unrelated to what I said, still disagreeing without at least engaging the argument. I mean, it’s like the old Monty Python “I came here for an argument” sketch. I love arguments, but “an argument isn’t just contradiction….An argument is a connected series of statements intended to establish a proposition.”

              In this case, we have a situation where people are advocating a course of action with Asche that would be highly, almost uniquely aggressive. I point that out with strong evidence. Rather than providing counter evidence, or saying something like “yes, I know it would be highly aggressive, but I think the Phillies should do it anyway because (whatever),” Instead you get “why do you want them to handle Asche with kid gloves?”

              It’s like … oh, I don’t know, some one arguing that Scarlett Johansson is the most beautiful woman in the history of the human race; I come back saying yes, she is indeed beautiful, but there are a few more beautiful women even now, and how can we even compare her to beautiful women in the distant past, and the first person coming back and saying “why do you think Scarlett Johansson is ugly?”

              Like

            10. A couple of reasons why Asche is highly unlikely to start in Philly out of ST: the decision has to be made now, either somebody else is lined up in the off-season to start or platoon at 3B or they aren’t. To not line someone up is to assume that getting subAsche makes the team out of ST and to be caught short if he doesn’t earn the job. Second, current baseball economics give teams a strong incentive not to bring guys up before they are able to play well. You own the for 6 years and they are cheap for the first several seasons. You don’t want to burn a season on sub-standard performance with an aggressive learn-on-the-job promotion. Asche still needs to improve both his D and his handling of the off-speed stuff. Finally, I think the Phillies think Brown was brought up too quickly the first time and that it did not help his development and unnecessarily exposed him to a lot of fan and media derision.

              Like

            11. Understand Larry…Asche should get the AAA experience, and that is what I would propose if I was the GM. But once the baseball season starts things get so fluid with all the injuries anymore, you just never know. It boggles my mind how many teams lose players to injuries prior to June every year, and they all train in the off-season. But that is another subject for another time.

              Like

            12. I haven’t read Larry’s posts (because they’re long and prior experience dictates his opinions generally coincide with my own), but I don’t think he’s saying Asche has no chance at getting called up after injuries. In fact, that’s probably what WILL happen. But people predicting Asche to be the starting 3B out of ST are being unreasonable. Let him get some more work in at AA/AAA. It’s not like he’s really old for his level or anything, and maybe the extra experience in the minors means he has less of an adjustment period in the majors. If that’s the case, then leaving him in the minors for a little while longer maximizes the value we get out of his entry-level contract.

              Like

  8. Jim (Philly): Besides power, what else does Larry Greene bring to the table?

    Aaron Fitt: Greene is another intriguing guy who was in the mix at the back of this list. I thought it was a deeper pool of candidates than usual this year — plenty of guys who missed the Top 20 are still quality prospects, and Greene falls into that group. Greene learned a lot about defense this year — pre-pitch positioning, reading the ball off the bat, improving his jumps. He’s a decent runner (not a burner), but he’s still learning to use his speed, both on the basepaths and in the outfield. He’s got a strong outfield arm as well. At the plate, he has a tendency to chase out of the zone and needs to improve his recognition of quality offspeed stuff, but the Phillies were pleased with his ability to work counts. He has a chance to hit for some average as well as power, in time.

    Like

    1. Grant (NYC): Are you impressed with Mitch Walding’s tools?

      Aaron Fitt: Another Phillies question — that team was loaded with interesting second-year high school guys and some decent college prospects (like Chris Serritella and Cameron Perkins). Walding obviously struggled quite a bit at the plate this year, but he showed good defensive actions and athleticism — definitely a guy who should be able to stay on the infield dirt. He figured to be a long-term prospect when the Phillies drafted him — you’re buying the size and athleticism. He needs time to figure out his offensive game, but you could dream on some pop down the road.

      Like

  10. I would be the most surprised person in the world, if asche was on the phillies. he had a nice year, but no way is he ready to play at major league level yet. let him get more at bats in the high minors, to see if he is for real.

    Like

      1. Next week starts the AFL…lets watch how Asche does against some other pitching profile prospects.

        Like

      2. Nowheels, please (did not mean to make a pun here, by the way) don’t misinterpret me here; I truly see Asche as an excellent prospect. However, many many MANY prospects have a single good season and then flame out. Hitting .300 one time in AA does not mean a player is ready for the Bigs. We don’t need to rush him, let’s see what we have in him in the minors before burning his options/entry-level contract.

        Like

        1. I LOVE Ashe’s swing. How can anyone watch him hit and not LOVE his swing. The fans in Philly will fall in love with him when they see him hit. He’ll be up by mid season and I predict he will tear up the Arizona Fall League

          Like

        2. While he may be rushed and not ready, if you look at the other internal candidates you find:

          #1 – Polanco who has not been healthy enough to play the last 2 and most likey not next year either.
          #2 – Frandsen – A career minor leaguer who is not a natual thirdbaseman who has hit OK and lacks power.
          #3 – Galvis – A slick SS who also is not a natural 3b and does not have the ideal arm, is recovering from a broken back, and who only showed hitting skills after he bulked up with steroids, has very little ML experience, and is actually younger than Asche.

          Sadly, the Free Agent market is not much better and the few viable trade targets would require the moon in return.

          So while Asche is not a lock, I certainly believe he will be given an equal shot vs the other internal candidates.

          In 2012 they basically left a spot opoen for JMJ in LF, but he failed to grab it and lost it in ST. In 2011 they held a spot for Brown, who also lost his spot later.

          The Phils are more than willing to leave a spot open for competition and I do not see any target for the Phils who they could even reasonably grab who would lock out giving Asche a shot.
          So no, in an Ideal world, Asche would not be competing for the starting 3B job next year. Unfortunately, its not an ideal world at 3b at CBP.

          Like

    2. I agree with the first half of your statement, not the second half. The issue is not whether or not Asche is ‘for real’ or just magically had a full-season of totally flukey success. He is for real. The issue is whether or not this absolutely for real prospect has sufficiently polished his game to succeed as a major league starter. I don’t think he has. He ended up hitting very well in AA, but started slowly. That is because the pitchers at AA are, on average, a lot better than the pitchers in A+, with better control to provide fewer mistakes to be slammed and with the pitchers with marginal stuff being weeded out, to some extent. There is an even greater difference in pitching between your average AA pitcher and your average major league pitcher. Asche will benefit from half a season against AAA pitching. He will see a steadier diet of good breaking balls and change-ups than he has faced to date. That will make the transition to the bigs that much smaller and smoother than jumping right from half a season of AA. He is also still polishing his defensive skills.

      Like

      1. Allentown, nice professional reply that makes sense and gives how Asche can benefit at AAA. It will be very interesting to see the Ironpigs next year with all the home grown talent instead of older veterans.

        Like

      2. While I agree Asche will not be fully ready, I’m not sure that does not mean he will still not be the best option.

        Not sure either Frandsen or Galvis (weak arm) since neither are natural third sackers, would be better fielding at 3B than Asche who claimed glove awards his last 2 years in college as well as last year in the minors.

        Nor am I sure Galvis nor Frandsen would be better hitters.

        I also do not see any seriously viable external candidates.
        It’s not a matter if Asche is a Good Choice, but more if he is the best of choice among less than optimal choices.

        I don’t know if he will take the job, but I would be surprised if he was not one of 3-4 candidates vying for the job. ( I suspect we will sign one Veteran Utility Player who could win the Job short-term or end up being the teams utility man off the bench.)

        Like

    3. It could be the best course of action is to bring in every journeyman you can find and hope to catch lightning in a bottle for 1 year. It’s scary as heck but Asche needs another year (or more). I’m sure there’s a trade somewhere, that no one’s thought about, but will that be better and at what cost. I saw Schmitty earlier in the year. I think he could play 1 year.

      Like

      1. Part of me wonders (ok, wishes…) whether Frandsen could hold it down for a year if he focuses solely on 3B defense this off-season and next season. And IF he could keep up the .300 pace for another year, because I think everyone doubts he develops power enough for 3B long term.

        Like

  11. Is there any way that for the next 4 league top 20s (SAL, FSL, EL, IL), that we could get an open thread to use the lists as starting point for discussing the guys that make the list as well as chat questions that come up, as well as just discussing the prospect on that team.

    I feel we have become to major league centric lately and it would be nice to celebrate the years of some of these guys. Things like today’s ranking places Quinn as at least a borderline top 100 guy (the two ahead are easily in the 50-75 range)

    Like

    1. I would like that as well, I want to celebrate the fact that Quinn is the third best prospect in his league. Great year for him

      Like

        1. Really? Not that I think it’s a poor choice or anything, but that is an extremely quick ascent through the ranks. I also presume Biddle is #1?

          Like

          1. Yes, Biddle is one. There’s a reason Quinn is ranked three in a very good league, he has enormous potential. We have few guys that look like possible all stars, he has that potential .

            Like

      1. I would not include Quinn in any deal as he has the potential to be very special. Dexter Fowler has horrible home/road splits and that worries me.

        Like

        1. I didnt realize that about Fowler. I am/was a pro-Fowler (simply based on salary and age vs. Upton/Ross/Swisher). If it was Worley (better yet Kendrick), DeFratus and say, Altherr?

          Like

  13. Johnan knight wasnt to my knowledge picked for extended spring games and instruction. Does that mean he isnt as highly regarded as the others??

    Like

  14. We built this system to not give it away again. Enough with Dave wright pipe dream. Mutes are giving him up. And I would rather have upton over cuddy. U freaking kidding me. Wow some people have no baseball sense. Joe has done a tremendous job let him keep working.

    Like

  15. I think as the Phils make clear Ryne Sandberg’s future role in the organization, you can see him having an increased impact in the placement of players he has worked with. The current uniformed brain trust of the Phillies (manager and coaches) has no particular insight into the Phils’ minor league talent.

    Like

      1. Wasn’t there a game a few weeks ago where Martinez was intentionally walked to get to the pitcher and then the pitcher got a hit? Might have been Hamels. Who was hitting like 60 or 70 points better on the season than Martinez. Should have just pitched to Martinez.

        Like

          1. I don’t think there is a single person (not related to Martinez) that will disagree with this prediction.

            Like

  17. Let’s talk AFL expectations: Its time to get back on the Asche bus, especially since he’s the only real prospect going to play. I’m in the “there’s no way he starts in Philly in 2013 camp”. Also, can Simon capture an even bigger buzz if he’s unhittable out there? While I want RAJ to sign a major league 8th inning guy, I continue to look at all our young bullpen arms and wonder if we really need to do that.

    Like

    1. If Asche does well in Arizona and starts off LHV at a good pace, I see no reason why he cannot be a mid-summer call-up right around his 23rd birthday.

      Like

    2. Asche isn’t even the best prospect going to the AFL, that would be Tommy Joseph. We aren’t going to learn anything about their stats since rarely do pitching prospects go to the AFL and it is a huge offensive environment. The best thing we can hope for his him getting more ABs and defensive reps. We are also likely to get some more scouting reports from evaluators.

      Like

    3. Murray, a very good veteran for a 1-2 year contract would be fine by me as I expect we will start seeing Aumont, DeFratus, Diekman and Rosenberg with the big club sooner than later. The veteran FA will provide insurance and experience to get to Papelbon and fill in for him.

      Like

      1. Think the Phillies would really benefit by having another veteran arm in the pen. I was watching a Braves game last week and the announcers were commenting on how much Chad Durbin has helped with all of the young guys they have in their bullpen, leading them during their workouts, drills, etc.

        I agree that the Phillies should be ready to turn the pen over to guys like Aumont, Defratus, Rosenberg, etc. but adding a quality veteran (prefer is was a lefty) to go along with Papelbon would help that transition.

        Like

            1. Wouldn’t be my 300th choice. I’d ask Moyer to come sit on the bench and talk to pitchers if you’re looking for a mentor type.

              Like

  18. I’m not convinced the AFL is a good predictor of anything. The season is short the talent sent there is light and it comes off a long season…

    Really the only thing left for Asche to do is continue to get more AB’s and experience.

    Like

    1. Unless all you scout is pure box score statistics there is agreement across the industry that Joseph is a better prospect:
      – He is a year younger than Asche
      – He plays a much more premium position (Catcher vs 3B)
      – He has a much higher offensive ceiling (most scouting reports say that what you see is what you get with Asche), especially when you put the position in to play

      If you are in favor of Asche your arguments are that his floor is higher, he is closer to the bigs, and his hit tool is probably a grade better.

      BTW when it comes to performance before the bigs what the scouts say matters, if it didn’t the profession would not exist.

      Like

      1. I started the thread and I actually forgot Joseph was going. I agree that Joseph has a higher possible ceiling as a power hitting catcher and he’s a year younger but he didn’t well this year while Asche was superb. I usually trust scouts quite a bit, especially those that have watched the players. I’ve heard the Phils are now very high on Asche also. A mid season 2014 lineup including both of them is not impossible.

        Like

  20. I think the Phils should not sign a veteran 8th inning guy. I think that between Bastardo, Aumont and DeFratus, it should be covered (plus, they need to prove whether they can or cannot handle that).The Phils 2013 payroll is already problematic and the Phils need to put out some decent money on a CF(Upton?), a 3B (I have no idea), and possibly another OF (depending on what they decide to do with Brown, Nix, Ruf, Schierholtz — some duplication of skill sets between Nix, Ruf, and Schierholtz). I would save the money on a RP and reserve that money as June/July approach to address problems/injuries. I would not be opposed for a lower cost veteran to compete, but I would rather the Phils figure out what Aumont, DeFratus, Rosenberg, Schwimer, Ramirez, Bastardo, and anyone else with the Phils or close to graduating.

    Before I get crushed for mentioning Ramirez, keep in mind from what I have read, his fastball touches 95, he is only 24 and is out of options and so the Phils will lose him if they do not keep him. Think of it like this — we have kept Herndon and Mini-Mart in recent years. Is Ramirez worth keeping as the Phils did Herndon and Mini-Mart? He has more upside and is still young.

    Like

    1. I agree with the comments here, if the Phillies sign a bullpen piece I would prefer a veteran 7th inning or specialist type guy. Someone cheap who can provide some experience in the bullpen with all the young guys, but I think there is enough talent out there that Amaro shouldn’t be going out and spending anything significant on reliever, they are volatile year to year.

      When it comes to Ramirez imagine that the Phillies selected him in the Rule V draft this year (he will have the same kind of restrictions on staying with the big league club all year). He would be someone that the board here would be excited about, essentially he would be David Herndon, only a year younger, with better stuff, with less ground balls but more strikeouts. If someone is willing to give you an interesting player not on the 40 man for him I would be interested, but otherwise they can probably carry him to at least see what the kid can do.

      Like

      1. I wonder what Madson will sign for for a year to re-establsih his value? I am guessing those bridges are burned both ways but it would make some sense for both parties for a year or two.

        Like

        1. Not only are the bridges burned but the only way for him to establish his value is to close somewhere.

          Like

          1. Do you really think that someone will sign Madson to close next year? A guy that has closed for most of only one year and is now coming off major arm surgery? It could happen but I’ll be surprised if it does. I do believe the bridge is burned in Philly though..

            Like

            1. I would say the short list to do it (also teams that could flip him at the deadline for prospects): Houston, Twins, Angels, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, Tigers. If you extend that to teams as just a reliever he could have a ton of suitors.

              Like

            2. I didnt think anyone would sign him as a closer but you make a good point, espoecially if someone has a young closer-in-waiting. I could see Houston doing it. They have a ton of salary “space” and a dire need to keep rebuiling ther farm( ie by getting prospects for Maddog) though their wont be many save opportunities there.

              Like

    2. Phillies 2013 payroll is not problematic. Not sure where everyone keeps getting this notion that they have a tight payroll or can afford to sign players.

      For 2013, they have $134M committed to 10 players.

      Assuming they don’t pick up options for Wigginton, Polanco, and Contreras (yes, they still have an option on him), the buyouts adds another $2M.

      They have 2 players eligible for Arbitration (Bastardo and Schierholtz) but neither should command top $$$. should be less than $6M combined.

      They then have another group of players who can be re-upped for ML miminum. That includes Kratz, Martinez, Brown, Mayberry, Worley, Stutes, Lindblom, Horst, Aumont, Rosenberg, Galvis, Frandsen, DeFratus, Schwimmer, Herndon, Cloyd, and all of their other AAA guys. At roughly $500,000 each, that gets you another 16 players for $8M. Add all that up and you get a payroll committment of around $150M for 21-22 roster spots plus some depth in AAA.

      Based on the fact that their recent payrolls have been in the $175M range that gives them +/- $25M to find a starting OF, 3b, and a veteran reliever. After 2013 they lose another $30m is salary with Utley & Halladay’s deals dropping from the books so they are not tight against any salary limit that prevents them from filling holes either now or moving forward.

      Like

      1. I think the assumption is that it would be nice for most of that to go towards a CF and either a corner OF bat or 3B. Either that or maintaining flexibility going into the season to make another move later where they could take on salary without having to give up a better prospect to get some money.

        It just doesn’t make a ton of sense in that context to hand a reliever a couple million where you have so many guys at the minimum to work with.

        Like

      2. It’s problematic in that they do not have a lot of flexibility as about 10 players take up at least 75% of a reasonably projected budget, which will be very near, if not over, the MLB tax limits, and they have 2 key positions that still need to be filled. That is why it is important that some of the higher end AAA/AA relievers and someone like Ruf step up and become contributors and join guys like Kratz, Mayberry, Worley, etc., as they are low cost. As such, to spend significant money on a RP makes little sense. A low cost RP veteran (but hopefully better than Qualls) makes a lot more sense. I am talking about 2013 not 2014 and beyond.

        Like

      3. By that calculation, I would think they would spend slightly more than the +/-$25M since the luxury tax will be higher in 2014.

        Like

        1. Could be. If they are ready to exceed the tax in 2013 because it goes up in 2014 and they have substantial reductions for 2014, then the short-term and long-term payroll is less problematic.

          Like

          1. I still would like to see Aumont and DeFratus over a higher priced veteran, assuming the Phils believe that they have the ability to do the job.

            Like

      4. You are not counting the $10 mill or so that the league includes in the salary cap for health insurance, nor the $1 mill or so for the other 15 guys on the 40-man. That doesn’t give you a starting 25-man team salary budget of $178 mill, it’s more like $165 mill for just the salary portion.

        Like

      5. I now think the CF will come from a trade. I threw Chris Young’s name out the other day as a guy that makes $8m next year (team option on the following year and is definitely getting traded) and probably would cost a relief pitcher like DeFratus or Bastardo. I’m not a huge fan of Young’s but he has speed and power and plays a good CF and could be sent packing after one year. The earlier post that the Phils can get Cuddyer, a guy they really wanted last off season, from the Rockies is very interesting. If its true, I think the Phils will go hard for him if the Rockies pay a little of his salary. I could see the Phils packaging one of their minor league arms (May, Martin or Morgan) for him. 3B? It could just be Fransden, who I really like, with Galvis on the bench for late defense. Check his career stats, the guy can play and Sandberg loves him and i think Charlie likes him too. A torn achillies really detoured his career.

        Like

  21. The problem shova, i see with madson for one year,is. doesnt it take him a year or a little less off that injury to get back his velocity? watching ruf play, he has tremous power,the ball jumps off his bat, but that doesnt mean he is a cant miss prospect, just saying the small sample i have seen, this kid can really drive a pitch, but the question remains, can he be consistant, that is something, no one knows,the jury is still out on him and will be, dont know if he will ever get his chance with the phillies, but has a shot to help a team.

    Like

    1. True – but madson was hurt right before the season I think… he should be pretty close.

      But for all the points others made, its moot. I just kinda liked Maddog as a setup guy. And the 8th inning killed me this year.

      Like

  22. Sorry meant to post this yesterday but here are some notes from the Roman Quinn scouting report from the NYP Top 20 (we really need another thread for prospect talk):
    – Numbers were really good in context of age and league
    – Swing is more advanced from his natural side (right), but his left handed swing is coming along nicely
    – Average to plus hitter, will have gap power has he matures
    – Strikeout rate is a little high, pitch recognition is improving
    – Has good range and a plus arm at short, he is apparently getting to a lot of balls most SS don’t, he still is working on getting used to playing the infield in terms of positioning and instincts

    Summarized down, he should hit for a good average with some power, he has amazing speed which will help his other hitting tools play up, and most importantly it appears he is showing the skills to not only stick at SS but possibly be a very good defender there.

    Like

  24. Offensively, is Shane Victorino a good comp for Roman Quinn?

    Matt Halladay for LG jr?

    Omar Infante for Cody Asche?

    Brian Mccan for Joseph?

    Like

    1. Interesting comps – I would say that Bourn is a closer match to Quinn with his freakish speed and 50+ stolen bases, not Victorino. If LG becomes a hitter like Holliday, that would be amazing but yeah that’s his celing. Asche is bigger than Infante and I think will develop more power as he learns more. McCann has had a great career although not this year. If Joseph matched his numbers, that would be pretty outstanding but that’s a good ceiling for him too. What are the odds that all 4 players hit their projected ceiling? 25%? Its not too high in reality and these are top prospects. Tough game….

      Like

    2. All of these are offense only and the comps are to ceiling with each probably have a 5% chance to even come close to that level
      Roman Quinn – Jose Reyes
      LGj – Jay Bruce (Holiday’s hit tool is much better and LGj raw power is more)
      Asche – Chris Johnson or Alberto Callaspo (I think 15HR is Asche’s ceiling)
      Joseph – McCann is as good a comp as I could come up with

      Like

      1. I should change that statement a little bit, I would put the 5% chance on Quinn, Greene, and Joseph. I think Asche has a 40-50% chance of hitting that comp

        Like

      2. These are all pretty good and interesting comparisons.

        For Joseph, I would say his tippy top ceiling is probably Gary Carter, but there’s less than a 1% chance he’ll be that good. In terms of his likely comp ceiling, oddly enough, I’d say it’s Travis d’Arnaud. He is the player who, to me, just seems most similar to Joseph, which is probably why he was targeted by the Phillies.

        Bruce is a great comp for LGjr

        Reyes was the comp I was thinking of for Quinn, although, frankly, Rollins isn’t all that bad of a comp either, although I don’t think he’ll have Rollins’ power. In terms of the dream ceiling, that would be Joe Morgan, but I think he has a 1 in a 1,000 chance of reaching that ceiling

        For Asche, having watched him play, the player is he is most similar to in style, swing and approach is Utley, but his ceiling is lower than that. I’d say his ceiling is 85-90% of Utley – a 5-6 WAR player, but he has fairly low odds of reaching that destination. He’s more likley to become a 2-3 WAR player and I’d take that in a second.

        Like

  25. The thing is like most about Quinn is his willingness to take a walk at his age. If he can build on that he might be a good lead off man

    Like

  26. Dexter Fowler really interests me, wondering why Rockies would want to trade him though. He would be a good fit.
    I have had the pleasure of hanging out with Tim Gradoville (2002-2009 Phillies minor leaguer) a couple times recently. He coached one year at Lakewood and caught Jake Diekman’s bullpen sessions when they were converting him from an over the top throwing angle to his present one. He said the first time he threw from the side, he was like wow! Tim thinks very highly of Darin Ruf , may have something to do with the college they attended.

    Like

    1. The rumor is the Rockies are looking for major league ready pitching, the only guys that I could see fitting that need are Worley, Kendrick, Cloyd, and Pettibone. If they were willing to structure a package around one of them, it could be an interesting move, I just wouldn’t move the next group that is farther away with higher upside.

      Like

    2. The Rockies are willing to trade him because they realize he is yet another product of Coors Field. Look at his home road splits for his career. His OPS is nearly 200 points better for his career at home (below 700 on the road). If he was traded to the Phillies, he would be in Colorado for 3 games a year, not 81.

      His offensive numbers away from Colorado this year are worse than Victorino, just to give you a comparison of a player that nobody thinks is having a good season.

      Like

      1. Agreed Greg. Fowler is an average player who benefits from playing in an extreme hitters park. he’s also now into his 2nd year of being arbitration eligible and will get paid like the guy with the .863 OPS rather than the guy who’s really a .700 OPS player. Add in that he’s a client of Scott Boras and he screams “overpaid”

        Like

        1. I still say our CF answer and new lead off hitter is already in the system and when compared to the FA options is a better gamble.

          I like Joey Bats in a minimal deal to come in and play 3B and when needed he can also play OF. At $14 Mil per season he’s good value. It’s a contract we can easily absorb and in doing so the prospect value shouldn’t require much.

          Like

          1. “It’s a contract we can easily absorb in doing so the prospect value shouldn’t require much.”
            I am wondering what you mean here, with that contract his value is immense. If for some reason the Jays dangled him I would suspect the package would start with Biddle, May, Franco, Joseph and from there add pieces.

            Like

            1. Yeah I didn’t think of it in that point of view but still if you clear $70 Mil off your books for one or two of the afore mentioned a deal might be possible. I wouldn’t say do it at any cost but I would be curious to know where the conversation would start.

              Like

      2. Wow didn’t realize that about Fowler, nice catch. Interesting because he is not a power hitter that his numbers would be that different.

        Like

        1. Coors effects power but it has affect BABIP and hitting more. The problem since the humidor hasn’t been as much balls flying out, it has been how hard it is to pitch there. Because of the less dense air (high altitude) any pitch that is supposed to have movement on it (breaking balls, cutters, changeups, etc) doesn’t break as much because there is less air to cause friction with the spinning ball and alter its flight (pitchers who rely on curveballs do really poorly there)

          Like

          1. Coors field also helps hitters because of the size of the field. With the larger dimensions, OF’ers tend to play deeper, creating more room for hits to land in front of them and also creating wider gaps that allow for more extra base hits.

            Like

  27. Very early 2013 rotation predictions (trades will likely occur):
    LHV – Cloyd, Pettibone, May, Martin, Hyatt
    Rea – Biddle, Morgan, Wright, Cloyd, Buchannan
    Clear – Garner, Klevin, Stewart, Rosin, Brady
    Lake – Watson, Warner, Martinez, Martinez, Oviedo (Manzanillo? Gueller?)

    Like

    1. I am guessing the second Cloyd should be Colvin. I would think that Lino moves to CLW and Gueller takes his place, I personally would move Garner or Rosin to the AA bullpen but I don’t know if they will do that.

      Like

    2. I think this looks pretty good. However, I think Hyatt will get moved to the bullpen and they’ll sign a veteran FA for the Lehigh rotation.

      Like

  28. If you look at the stats for the season, the Phils’ decline is attributable to defense and pitching, not hitting.

    (Just to cite one stat, in 2011, the Phils were 15th in the majors with an OPS of .717. In 2012, the Phils are also 15th with the same exact OPS.)

    The Phils’ emphasis in the off-season should be on adding a top starter, an eighth-inning guy plus improving the defense.

    My big move would be to sign Zach Greinke, a top 20 pitcher and one of only two difference makers in free agency this off-season.

    Like

    1. The conclusion doesn’t follow from the premise, though the premise is correct.

      The Philleis went from great pitching/mediocre hitting to mediocre pitching/mediocre hitting. There’s nothing special about how they won in 2011; all else being equal, one would think think that both pitching and hitting need work.

      All else is not equal. The strong argument and the not as strong argument:

      The strong argument is that, if you look at the personel of the team as currently constituted, there is more chance of a rebound from the pitching than the hitting. I’d argue that the pitching was hit harder than the hitting in terms of injuroes; also, despite the presence of Halladay and Lee, overall the age profile of the pitching staff is better than the age profile of the position players. Realatedly, there are more holes among position players – they traded away two solid to plus position players, and made no such moves on the ptiching front. So … absent signficant moves, I expect next year the pitching will be good, and the hitting mediocre or even worse.

      The less strong argument is that, IMO, I’d rather rely upon strong hitting than strong pitching, simply because pitching is less depenandble – the variance on pitcher performance is greater than the variance on hitter performance.

      All that said, the real question is availability on both the trade and FA markets, and the synergy between the two. For example, if they trade a starting pitcher for hitting then a Greinke signing might make sense.

      Finally, not a reason in itself to avoid your sugegstion, but I thinkt he Phillies are already the first team in history with 3 20 million plus starting pitchers. Signing Greinke, without trading one of the current big 3, would mean an absurd 4 starting pitchers at over 20 million per year. 🙂

      Like

      1. Not sure Greinke gets 20 million per year, but he would be a nice replacement for Haladay at say 5yr/90 million. I think next year is Haladay’s last at 20 mil per season.

        Like

        1. I can’t see anyway he doesn’t get $20 million at least. He’s the biggest name on a weak market.

          Like

          1. I would be shocked if someone doesn’t give him $20 million per year. It only takes one team and there are several desperate teams with the ability to fund that. If he doesn’t stay with the Angels, the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and even the Phillies could be in the market for his services. His contract will probably look a lot like Matt Cain’s. If the Phillies sign him, I don’t think Lee gets traded (again, why all the trade Cliff Lee talk? It’s so stupid. In what was a horrible year for him, he was still a 5 WAR pitcher and his underlying stuff is as good or better than it has ever been). Rather, I think it means that Roy Halladay does not get re-signed for 2013. But it’s all speculation and I doubt the Phils would sign Greinke.

            Like

            1. IMO, trading Cliff Lee is not something I would desire. BUT my fear is, I believe Ruben will get offers he will find hard to refuse. For one, I really think if the Texas Rangers falter in the next few weeks, Nolan Ryan will try to entice Ruben for Lee.

              Like

    2. Actually the site I saw had them at 19th in OPS. I have to agree with Larry on this one. Significant upgrades in OPS need to be made at 3B and LF.

      I wouldn’t rule out a buy low upgrade in the rotation if an opportunity presented itself!

      Like

  31. I was just looking up dexter fowler. not a lot of power, nice obp, for a 13 homeruns guy, strikesout too much,not sure this is the answer for what we need.imo we need a power hitter and righthanded to follow howard, not sure this would be the guy, would teams pitch to howard. not to face fowler, not in my view.

    Like

  33. For all you Ruffies, he hit his second home run in about 20 MLB bats tonight. So next year if he gets 700 plate appearances he will be the all time single season home run champion.

    “There are lies, dammed lies and statistics.” Mark Twain

    It would be cool if he did that though…

    Like

      1. It doesn’t matter, he could hit 15 homers this week and it would prove nothing – small sample size. Plus larrym already deemed him destined to fail, so he should prob just hang up the spikes…

        Like

        1. Good misrepresentation of Larry. He never said that. In fact, Larry was one of the more optimistic Ruf supporters throughout the year.

          Like

        2. Ruf is pretty much doing what reasonable people (including, but not limited to, Larry) thought he would. He’s hitting well against left-handed pitching. Dude had a slugging percentage of over .800 against LH’ers this year. The reasonable among us agree that he could be a useful RH power bat off of the bench/platoon player. I really don’t see how anything he has done in the 20 or so plate appearances to this point prove anything different.

          Like

  34. What do you think of these numbers for a 23 year in AAA?

    G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
    125 534 464 73 122 39 1 17 70 8 3 46 89 .263 .352 .461 .813

    They are pretty nice. Not sure if this is a guy you build your franchise around though?
    Here is the point. It isn’t all about numbers.
    Watch the prospect play.
    Cody Ashe has a great swing and will hit in the majors. Not sure how good he will be but with a swing like that, he will start.

    The stats above by the way are Utleys

    Like

  35. 3 homers now. Glad to see he remembered his magic bat on his way to the National League.

    (I kid. Good for him.)

    Like

  36. Make that three home runs. The one off Tyler Clippard tonight in the 8th was a BOMB. Not projecting anything here, but it is really cool to see him do what he’s done. Coming into the season, he was nowhere on the radar and, in fact, there was a thought he would get released from minor-league camp.

    Like

      1. In fairness, what we saw today from commenters on these boards was mostly what we I wish we had been seeing all along – people justifiably happy for the guy & enthusiastic without getting carried away by a SSS.

        Like

          1. Come on now, Larry is a legend in his own mind and is always correct about the Phillies. He also treats everyone with the utmost respect and tact. 100% Sarcasm meant.

            Like

            1. He’s more correct than most. He also lays out arguments in a manner that ticks people off because he’s confident. If you have a problem with that, you should probably go to a different website that everything is rainbows and bunnies.

              Like

            2. How can someone with an opinion on minor leaguers be “more correct”? That’s the problem. Some people take their views way too serious around here. Let’s accept the fact that we’re not experts or scouts and that we have very little first hand observations on the players we debate about.

              Keep it fun but enough with the lecturing already. LarryM is war and peacing us to death.

              Like

            4. Haha. So instead of having intelligent conversation on topics, we should just go by one liners like
              “Cloyd is better than KK!”
              “Ruf is better than Howard!”
              “Fire Manuel because he stinks!”

              For that type of argument, I’ll point you to the comments section of philly.com. Seems to be your pace.

              Like

            6. The point went over your head, I think. What good does a one-liner comment do us, exactly? The fun of the site is not just following minor league players, but having intelligent discussions and debates regarding them. I can look at the box scores to see that Ruf had a good year, but they won’t talk to me about whether or not he can be major league player, and if he can whether he is a starter, platoon player, or bench bat. That’s why the long comments are a good thing. We get to have actual conversations, and we may get a new insight into players or baseball.

              I’ll take one of Larry’s posts in a heartbeat over “Rollins is lazy.”

              Like

            7. I agree. Just like any ‘discussion’ certain people will react to different things.
              Posters do have opinions and will present the evidence that supports their opinions,. From these discussions i usually get to her both sides.

              I’d prefer posters eventually reach the ‘agree to disagree’ attitude on civil terms.

              Like

            12. Rich, there is a big difference between being confident and being arrogant/pompous. That was my first and last post like that and was a mistake on my part. I work in an office enviornment where tact and professionalism is valued and I have done well there. Larry is the only person on the website who has really offended me and everyone else has responded professionally.

              Like

  37. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121002&content_id=39365430&notebook_id=39365432&vkey=notebook_phi&c_id=phi&partnerId=rss_phi

    Looks like the Phillies are going to take a passive approach to the off season.

    If that’s the case, I’m making the following moves if I’m Ruben:

    CF Angel Pagan
    3B Marco Scutaro

    Line up:

    Rollins
    Scutaro
    Utley
    Howard
    Ruz
    Pagan
    Brown/Mayberry in Right
    Nix/Ruf in Left
    Pitcher

    I’d have the rotation as:

    1. Hamels
    2. Halladay
    3. Lee
    4. Kendrick
    5. Worley

    Bullpen as:

    LR/7th starter – Rosenberg
    MID – Stutes
    MID – Horst
    MID – DeFratus
    SU – Aumont
    SU- Bastardo
    C – Papelbon

    and the bench as (beyond the platoon guys)

    Juan Pierre as the 5th outfielder/pinch runner
    Fransden as the UTL
    Kratz as the Back Up Catcher

    Good enough to compete for at least a Wild Card in my mind.

    Like

    1. However, instead of Pagan, I’d target Melky Cabrera as the CF. Obviously isn’t a great defensive player but he could be a guy who comes here and uses our ball park to re-establish his value (ala Adrian Beltre for Boston).

      That really depends on, for me, on whether or not the Giants extend him a Qualifying Offer.

      Like

      1. See it’s because people like you keep giving those cheaters contracts that players keep taking HGH and Steroids. Cabrera was most likely taking that stuff already last year in KC and almost got away with a big contract, Ban those guys from MLB and it will stop.

        Like

      2. CF defense is critical especially if Ruf plays LF. It is hard to quantify the effect of this years horrid early defense on the pitchers young and experienced .

        Like

      1. General manager Ruben Amaro hinted that the Phillies might be more judicious in how they spend their money in the offseason. Rather going for a high-risk, high-reward signing, they might get back to more of a Pat Gillick-style approach and find some good bargains.

        “There are some guys who have some track records, but what guarantee do we have that some of the guys that we may sign for a significant amount of money are any better than the players we have in this clubhouse?” Amaro said.

        Like

    3. Amaro, whatever you may think about him, hasn’t always been known for his candor to the press, so I would take this with more than a grain of salt.

      Like

      1. Fair enough and probably 100% true.

        Trying to predict what the Phillies are going to do this off season is really tough. I saw them signing Papelbon last year… there’s no real obvious move out there.

        At the trading deadline, I was 100% convinced they’d sign Michael Bourn, but given his 2nd half slump, I’d wonder if they’re still interested in spending big on him.

        Like

    4. I’m not sure I would take Amaro’s prediction that they’ll be passive at face value. He usually seems to do precisely the opposite of what he says he’s going to do. My prediction, based on nothing in particular, is that they’ll make a big push to trade for one of either Justin Upton or Chase Headley. Better than anything available on the FA market, plus they may have the pieces to do it after the deadline trades. Something like Joseph, Brown, one of the prospect pitchers (May, Morgan, Pettibone), and perhaps a spare part? Say what you will about Ruf, but his existence certainly makes Brown more expendable.

      Like

      1. By the way, I’m saying that’s a package we could put together, whether it would fetch someone like Upton or Headley, even if on the market, is certainly debatable. But it’s what I’d try if I were Amaro, rather than playing in the FA market.

        Like

        1. If he doesn’t try to acquire Justin Upton, I’m leading the charge to get him fired.

          I think he winds up with Texas though. Arizona has some of the same needs as we do going forward (third base namely). If Texas dangles Mike Olt and Martin Perez, he’s probably a Ranger.

          Like

          1. Although if you take into account the Phillies’ history of going after the less-talented brothers of major league stars (Jeremy Giambi, Vince DiMaggio, etc), it’s quite possible they sign BJ Upton this offseason.

            Like

            1. Philadelphia sports franchises in General. (Casey Matthews across the street is one example).

              BJ Upton wouldn’t surprise me at all given all the Rays connections in our Front Office.

              Like

  38. If I’m an opposing pitcher, my next move would be to pitch him up in the zone. Test out that “uppercut swing” because he’s doing a lot of damage on pitches that are low.

    Like

    1. I agree, I want to see if he can catch up with heat up and in, after that give him soft and away (essentially all the pitches Howard struggles with). I would give him nothing middle to low and inside. We won’t really learn what he can do till next season (in spring training pitchers will be too worried about working on their own things to be working on Ruf’s weaknesses)

      Like

        1. It was a cutter middle in, still in the hitting zone. It is the ones right outside the zone that could be a problem

          Like

  39. After all is said…the Phillies need more home run pop throughout the entire lineup. Games are won with good pitching, good fielding, and home runs. Gone are the days of multiple hits etc. inning after inning as a bevy or relievers are ready to come in. Look at the playoff teams – its all about hitting the home run. Even the Phils when they finally got warmed up in the end were winning games with 3 /6 hits but did it with a 3 run hr etc. Minor leaguers with HR pop should be the priority. The shame about Ruf is that he is ultimately a better first baseman (fielding) than Howard and in a perfect world could have been his successor- but not with Howard’s contract. In time – maybe shortly- don’t be surprised to see Ruf moved to a second division team for ??? and he winds up hitting 30 homers somewhere. Having seen him in these last games he is clearly a very impressive hitter – albeit green with off speed stuff. The next 3B should be a good fielder first and have at least 20 Hr power – whether its Asche (highly unlikely in ’13 I think), a platoon of Frandsen + ???, or an unacquired presence.

    Like

  40. Here’s a name to think about to bring in to try out for center field. Lastings Milledge. He is playing in Japan and doing well(.300/.379/.485, 21 homers). He was an interesting player at one point, though not necessarily an outstanding citizen.
    Might be worth a look.

    Like

    2. That’s an interesting idea. Although, Japan stat lines for hitters are notoriously deceptive. Benny Agbayani, 2004: .315 .429 .617 1046.

      Benny Agbayani OPSed over 1.000!

      Like

  41. The reason that I have keep it up about stats is now. imo coming up to bite stats guys in the ass. based on stats you would think cloyd was the next halladay, the guy isnt even a mop up guy in the majors,. and ruf has a sweet swing and knows the strike zone. to down him as a prospect based on him being a little older, is silly. look at this kid swing the bat, he is a major league hitter. stats are nice but you have to see the kids play,to really evaluate a player.

    Like

  43. A few thoughts on Ruf and Rosenberg.

    Although I am loathe to add to the Ruf discussion, here goes. I agree with Larry and others that there is probably little the Phillies themselves will learn about Ruf but, as a fan who has a decent idea of what I’m seeing on TV, I feel like I can learn a little more about him when I see him play although, with a young hitter, what you really cannot learn or know is how the hitter will react once he has been around the league a few times and they get a sense of how to pitch to him. Already, you can see that Ruf can struggle with a good curveball, but I’m not sure that makes him much different than any other power hitter.

    All of that having been said, from what I have seen, there’s a lot to like about Ruf. His swing is certainly short and it generates a lot of power. I would say his power is in the 65 range – just below the elite level. Ruf also seems able to turn around a good fastball and can drive a breaking pitch from time to time. His reaction time seems decent. He also seems to have a very good idea of the strike zone (he has taken some close pitches that were probably balls, but were called strikes because he is a rookie and does not get the benefit of the doubt) and a decent hit tool. As for his fielding, the good thing is that, given the limited amount of time he has spent in the outfield, he does not look clueless or uncoordinated. His arms seems to be okay, but not as good as, say Pat Burrell’s arm. But, yes, is very slow and, therefore, could never even be an average outfielder. Undoubtedly, even in the best case scenario, he is probably going to be at least a minus 1 WAR outfielder, and perhaps as bad as a minus 2. That means he is going to have to be something like a 3-4 WAR (annualized) hitter to make putting him in the outfield on a regular basis worthwhile. He could be that good of a hitter, but we probably won’t know until he’s had about 300-400 at bats and the league has had a chance to learn a little about him and his weaknesses. Next year, if he has a good spring (I would bet money he will), he will probably join the team as another outfielder and back-up first baseman and will compete for playing time. I’m fine with that – that’s as it should be.

    On Rosenberg. Last night he showed yet again that he can maintain significant velocity for multiple innings. And, man, does he throw hard. Even though I think Rosie is valuable as a 7th and 8th inning guy, I would use him as a long man and give him a look in the starting rotation. He could be the guy who comes out of nowhere and proves to be a very solid starting pitcher. If you were another team, I’m not sure you’d want to see some guy like Rosenberg throwing 96 and 97 MPH heat as the 5th starter. Very interesting.

    Like

    1. ‘Undoubtedly, even in the best case scenario, he is probably going to be at least a minus 1 WAR outfielder, and perhaps as bad as a minus 2.’….don’t they break down LF vs RF WAR? Typically the RF needs better defensive skill level.

      Like

      1. That’s a good question – I’m not sure of the answer. However, I was assuming that he would be a minus 1 to 2 WAR in left field even judging by leftfielder standards, if there is such a thing. I think folks are right that he will likely end up starting next year in a modified platoon in left with Laynce Nix, with Ruf getting some starts against righties and all of the starts against lefties. He will also start at first whenever Howard needs a break, be inserted into the line-up when Nix is required to face a lefty, and pinch hit on virtually every day when he is not in the line-up. Unless he goes into full beast mode or Howard gets hurt again, he’ll probably get somewhere between 350-475 at bats.

        Like

        1. I don’t think that is a terrible outlook for him. I would put the ABs in the 250-350 range, but he is a platoon hitter and if he can work on it probably make himself into a good pinch hitting option for games he doesn’t start.

          Like

        2. To clarify, WAR and it’s counterparts (VORP, for example) do indeed account for defensive position. Not necessarily very accurately, but it does adjust. It’s based on defensive gauges, and subtracts some value for less valuable defensive positions (SS>2B>3B, for example). Since the defensive metrics are involved in the process, if he’s below average for a LFer, it will reflect in the overall WAR.

          The asterisk about this information is, of course, that it typically takes 3 seasons of data for defensive data to become reliable. So I guess I would say take it with a grain of salt, and don’t necessarily doubt your eyes.

          Like

    2. I agree with what you say, but think there is some useful nuance here. Yes, the Phillies will ‘learn’ little about Ruf in his twenty-odd end of season AB, certainly not in any statistically meaningful sense. However, that does not mean that what Ruf has done won’t change their thinking about him and alter their plans for him. Ruf’s bat seems to have made a very clear impression upon Cholly. That matters, because Cholly is a manager who goes based upon his feel, rather than stats. Cholly also has a lot of influence over who is on the major league roster and whether they do more than collect bench splinters. Ruf now goes into ST with a star next to his name in Cholly’s book.

      Significantly, Ruf has not embarrassed himself defensively during his time in the Phillies line-up. That is very important to the Phillies impression of him.

      Ruf still has to show that he can handle the adjustments that pitchers will make to him in the future, but his current success is not RISP-driven. He has demonstrated both that he can perform after rusting on the bench and that he has serious power against major league pitchers. He has shown good ball/strike management and run long counts. It is no guarantee of continued success, but there is a lot to like about what he has shown so far and Cholly clearly likes what he’s seen. A week of play in meaningless games doesn’t predict future performance, but it has certainly greatly boosted Ruf’s chances of starting 2013 in Philadelphia. Cholly gets what he wants and Ruf seems to be both a guy he likes and his newest power-hitter toy to work with.

      Like

    3. Agree with most but not all of this.

      In terms of next year’s role (and for the record, despite my alleged negativity towards Ruf, I’ve speculated that he could a role such as you outline), I think there are a couple questions that need to be answered before we know what role he will have:

      (1) Do the Phillies sign a corner outfielder? I think they don’t, prioritizing CF, but I wouldn’t be certain by any means. Obviously if they do, Ruf’s likely role is reduced.

      (2) Do they really platoon at both corner OF spots? I’m inclined to say no. IF Brown is the everyday guy in right (and, as much of a fan of him as I am, his late season performance raises at least some question about that), then Mayberry is available to platoon in left. I know this won’t be a popular opinion here, but in a purely platoon role I think Mayberry is easily a better option than Ruf. Much better fielder, and, against left handers, as good a hitter as Ruf. Ironically, despite my skepticism about Ruf, he probably would be better than Mayberry as a full time player, simply because he doesn’t have nearly as big a platoon split. I’m inclined to think that the Phillies would agree me on this. That would NOT rule out a significant role for Ruf, but would lessen the chance that he is the right handed half of a platoon in left field.

      (3) On the sample size issue, no one is going to be convinced at this point, you either understand sample size or you don’t, but I’d like to point out a couple of things for those people getting TOO carried away about his SSS performance this year: (a) contrary to what another poster said, his BA is certainly to a large extent BABIP driven (.421 babip). He will not hit .300 in a significant SS; he will be closer to .250. He arguably has enough other skills to make up for this, especially in a platoon or reserve role, he does have real power which I never doubted, but it’s silly to put any weight at all on his BA in 33 PA. (b) I don’t put any real weight on the following (SSS), but for those who put weight on his positives in a SSS, you can’t ignore the negative, which in this case is a terrible 10 to 1 K/BB ratio.

      Like

      1. I think the caveat to all of this, and the best case for thinking that Ruf will get significant playing time next year, is that I think there’s a high probability that Howard will once again spend significant time on the DL–which, mind you, is the reason we’re getting to see this much of Ruf in the first place. Granted, dropping a metal bar on your toe qualifies as a freak injury, and the Phillies say it won’t affect his offseason, but Howard is showing real signs of becoming one of those guys who can’t stay healthy, and with his kind of physique, an inability to stay healthy can, ahem, snowball. If you want really depress yourself, go take a look at the baseball reference pages for Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder after their age 32 seasons. The best case comparison for Howard (in recent history) might be David Ortiz, who’s bounced back and forth between up and down years, but he gets to play DH.

        Anyway, I don’t mean to be a bummer about things that can’t be changed, like Howard’s contract, but I’m just saying that I think it’s quite possible Howard plays less than 100 games next year, meaning that instead of figuring Ruf into next year’s outfield, the Phillies should pencil him into the taxi squad. Wouldn’t we be better off with him–a cheap power hitter with options–rather than giving the inevitable fill-in stars to the likes of Mayberry, Wiggington and Hector Luna? It’s not insurance at this point so much as preparing for an inevitability.

        Like

        1. As I said elsewhere, I find Ruf a more plausible first baseman than left fielder. I absolutely, without any hesitation at all, would plug him into the regular role if Howard does spend time on the DL. And I have said that before. So much for my alleged negativity regarding Ruf.

          Like

    4. Amazing that everybodu jumpoed on the Ruf talk. Me? I was wondering if anyone else thought that about BJ. He seems to make a mistake here or there that can kill you as a reliever but as starter you can live with (ie one bad 2 or 3-run inning over 7-8 isnt bad for a 5th starter). I think/hope he takes Kendricks place as 6th starter (or better as season progresses). And if he and Petitbone can join the staff Worley and KK are trade bait.

      Like

      1. I think it is a combination of the fairly solid major league rotation (obviously you think less of Kendrick than some of us do), combined with multiple starting pitcher candidates in or near the upper minors, versus obvious holes in the lineup, combined with a relative dearth of position players in the upper minors who are major league ready. For me anyway, my reaction to the Rosenberg mention was … meh, not so much that I disagree, but I’m not sure there is a spot for him. So not really worth commenting on (of course in my case combined with my admitted lesser expertise when it comes to pitching propsects).

        Like

        1. Yeh – Im kinda torn on KK. He looked so much better sometimes and then he reverted a couple. And for $4.5 (I think thats his 2013 $), its not bad, so can you fill a hole with young cheaper talent(CF?) or get some nice prospects back and fill the 4th/5th with a somewhat equivalent performance cheaper. Also , while $4.5 isnt that bad for a 4th/5th starter, the $ could be used elsewhere (again if we can repalce him cheaply… admittdely still a big IF..).

          I was more wondering what others thought of BJ’s ability to possibly be that replacement. I was more impressded by him than Tyler Cloyd (who I had some hopes for too but just seemed too under-armed in the MLB sadly to me). I just dont know if BJ can keep the 95-97 up for a whole season of starting…. and he needs to develop complementary pitches still…. and he’s 27 so he’s no baby (though lost time to injuries etc…)

          Anyway, thanks for the response.

          Like

  44. Adam Greenburg struck against RA Dickey last night…but what a story for the new version of ‘Moonlight Graham’. Baseball does have a sensitive and caring side and Ozzie Guillen has to be commended.

    Like

  46. The point is made and well taken. For those of us who looked at Ruf and said he was legit he is certainly off to a good start. But as others have said and as I have said MLB advanced scouting and video work is no where near what’s given to these guys in the minors.

    Ask Kratz. Ask Howard. If you aren’t able to adjust to the adjustments its a long hard fall from grace. It’s a shame we’ll have to table the discussion until next spring.

    Like

  47. Does Galvis make a jump?
    Does Ruf make a jump?
    Is Kratz for real?
    Worley, Stutes?????
    So many question. Can we start ST soon.

    Like

  49. Maikel Franco the only Phillie on the BA top 20 SAL list. Ranked 16. Seems a bit low, considering they got another 3B who is 2 years older ahead of him.

    Like

    2. There are some really good prospects there. Don’t be surprised if Biddle is similarly down on the FSL list

      Like

    1. Also Jim Callis said that 9 Phillies make Top 20s, three have been revealed (Tocci, Quinn, Franco) and it said on their podcast that Cloyd made the IL list (the league list is also apparently the worse in the minors)

      Like

          1. well May is a better prospect than Wright, and a better prospect than Ruf, if Ruf even is considered a prospect

            Like

            1. overall in the Phils system? Probably. But it’s hard to give May a top 20 ranking in the EL when he put up an era close to 5.

              Like

        2. I would guess:
          Biddle
          May
          Martin (Texas League not EL)
          Joseph
          Aumont (weak IL competition better prospect than Cloyd)

          I think Asche is behind the pitchers and Joseph despite the stats. Pettibone was 2 starts short of qualifying for the IL or he would be on the list. Ruf just isn’t the same caliber of prospect as the rest.

          Like

      1. I’ll add from the chat when it happens but here are some scouting notes:
        – aggressive hitter with natural raw power
        – swing can get long in an effort to hit home runs
        – below average runner
        – has good actions, hands, and arm for third, has a chance to be really good defender
        – a lot to like about the complete power

        Like

    3. I have to assume Kelly Dugan would be in the late 20s/early30s range., if there were such a category.

      Like

    4. carlos (philly): Maikel Franco had 1 of the best second halves in milb as a 19 year old. Is he 1 of the elite 3b prospects in milb?

      Bill Ballew: He has the potential to be that good, yes. According to several scouts, there were times this year when they could literally see the light come on for Franco. He has a deep tool kit and a high ceiling that should allow him to make adjustments as well as improvements as he continues to advance to higher levels.

      Like

  51. The one thing that keeps getting left out of the Ruf talk is that he is already ours and he is cheap. This team desperately needs to fill some 25 man roster spots with league minimum salaries.

    Like

  52. Phils’ bats have gone into off season swoon. Hitting needs to be re-assessed top to bottom. As they play out the string, there’s not much to like other than Ruf and Frandsen. I’m closing the season thinking Brown has not earned a starting spot and, as he’s out of options, he might wear another team’s uniform by the end of spring training next year. Five tools are a lot to keep on your bench.

    Like

    1. I disagree strongly with you about Brown but certainly his season, which was looking pretty good a few weeks ago, has been frustrating lately.

      But in terms of “there’s not much to like other than Ruf and Frandsen,” I find that baffling in the extreme. Ruf I can understand, but Frandsen? Really? Seriously?

      Looking at the season as a whole, and even just concentrating on hitting, it seems to me that you are ignoring at least Utley, Ruiz, and Rollins. All three also had strong Septembers, so even looking at the recent past your comment, by ignoring them, makes no sense. It would be insane to put Frandsen in front of them – and really Mayberry in the second half especially (despite falling off in September) also has been impressive, certainly much more so than Frandsen. Let’s also not forget the fine season Pierre has had, granted that he might not be back.

      I’m not going to get into the whole Ruf debate again here, and certainly as a hitter he could rank above several returning players. But to point to 33 PA from him, while ignoring contributions from several other players, is almost as silly as mentioning Frandsen while ignoring those other players.

      Like

      1. Frandsen, in all fairness was going on to have a pretty nice career with the Giants when the devastating injury in 2008 put him on the shelf for the year, and like Ryan Howard, those injuries take awhie to really come around. So he had to go back down to AAA and work his way back.

        Like

        1. Frandsen doesn’t walk or hit for power. His only real offensive skill is his batting average. He would, I think, have a good BA even over the long haul, given his contact skills, but more on the order of .290 to .300 AT BEST. An empty .295 does not cut it for a regular third baseman – especially one whom is at best average defensively.

          Like

          1. Actually agree here.
            He would be more useful as a Utility player since he played 2B, SS, and 3B and can hit for OK average. He has also seemed to have never been a full-time regular in the minors, so he should be used to less consistent time. I may end up competing and winning the 3B job again next year vs some other questionable options but I can’t see him ever becoming an option we are Happy or Satisfied about.

            Like

          2. Agreed, but i think the positive outlook on Frandsen is that he should have won himself the utility role and we are done with Mini Mart. That way we can have the debates on who WAS the worse bench player Bruntlett or Martinez.

            Like

            1. The manager likes switch-hitters who play multi-positional defense, even if they are Mendoza challenged from both sides of the plate.

              Like

            3. That would be switch-nonhitters then.
              Bruntlett vs Martinez interesting Was that offense or defense? They were both equally inept at both.

              Like

  53. May I be the first to suggest something that would immediately make the Phillies a better team?

    Try to uload Ryan Howard to the Red Sox and plug Ruf in at 1b. The Sox will need to make a splash and need a power bat. They have $$ to spend. Who cares what we get back, don’t be greedy, just get it done. Maybe a big bullpen arm?

    Sign Josh Hamilton to play the outfield and immediately, you are a much better offensive team, much, much better. You now have a right handed power bat in the lineup with Ruf and Hamilton will make up for any slippage from Howard to Ruf. Money wise it won’t be too far off either.

    The next thing to consider is trading Papelbon. We have arms out the wazzoo to add to the back of the pen. Sign Madson cheap and he can be the closer for the next year or two. Remember, I said consider, so relax. This one is not a necessity, but something to consider. Remember, who is Oakland’s closer?? Who is the closer for Tampa?? You could have had either of these guys for nothing at this time last year.

    I love Dom Brown and want him to be the player I think he can be, but, at this point, I see him at best in a platoon with Mayberry. Make them both earn it.

    Don’t sign another starter, wait til July to see what you need. Come playoff time, you are looking at a four man rotation and I would be happy with 4 of our 5 guys.

    So, now you have a team with the following:

    Ruf 1b
    Utley 2b
    Rollins SS
    ?? 3b
    Chooch c
    Mayberry/Brown in RF
    Hamilton CF
    Pierre/ ?? lf
    you need to fill in 3b and a right handed platoon option for Pierre. I also believe Gillies will be knocking on the door as long as he keeps his head on straight. If you do get rid of Papelbon, you could afford to pay for David Wright. Now, you would have a great lineup. Get to work RUBE

    Like

    1. If we paid 80% of Howard’s remaining salary over the course of his contract and took nothing in return … IMO, the Red Sox still don’t do that move. They are, possibly more than any team in baseball right now, driven by advanced statistical analysis, and Howard looks very bad under such analysis.

      Don’t think much of your other idea either, but the Howard idea stands out as most unrealistic.

      Like

      1. Though to be clear, in the abstract (i.e., taking Howard out of the equation) I actually find the Ruf as first base regular much more plausible than Ruf in LF. I still think many of his fans are too carried away, and he wouldn’t be a star, but he could be an average major league first baseman, which, believe it or not, is high praise. IMO he projects better at first base because his defensive advantage at that position outweighs (by about 5 to 15 runs per year) the positional differential between left field and first base.

        Like

      1. i don’t know that would be such a dumb move for them. They have no marquee names left and he is still a major run producer. Their payrol has been liberated and they finished in last place. They cannot roll James Loney out at 1b and expect to win. Plus, Howard could dh some over there, thus reducing the risk.

        Like

        1. Well the DH pitch makes some sense, and Loney is pretty bad. But at the end of the day none of that matters. Howard, at least THIS year’s Howard, is not a “run producer” in any meaningful sense if one puts any weight at all on modern statistical metrics. At least not for a first baseman. And without revisiting that long running argument (“but, but he has 56 RBIs in 71 games”), the Sox are a modern metrics driven organization.

          Could Howard rebound? Sure. Nobody is likely to want to take a chance on that.

          To put this in perspective, based upon WAR, Loney is better than Howard this season and comparable in recent seasons (overall; not as good a hitter, but better defensively and as a base runner). Scoff at that if you will, but the Red Sox front office probably feels the same way.

          Like

        2. They don’t base their decisions on Home Runs and RBI’s like the Phillies did. They look at ISO, OBP, strikeout rates, WAR, etc.

          Ryan Howard isn’t their kind of ball player. They’re more likely to invest in Nick Swisher as a first baseman. They’re going to resign Ortiz to be their DH.

          Like

        3. The obvious answer to this has nothing to do with their evaluation of Howard and has more to do with a team that has obviously positioned themselves to rebuild and why would they trade for a high priced 1B when they just traded one away. They are more likely to try to make moves for younger cost controlled players(Justin Upton not saying him in particular just an example) than pay for older high priced FAs

          Like

    3. IMO Howard is untradeable, However if he were to be traded, and Ruf take over at 1st base it would be very lion king esq and complete the circle of life. Thome was traded in the middle of a multiyear mega deal to make room for the double A single season home run champ, and now Howard would be traded in the middle of a mutliyear mega deal to make room for the double A single season home run champ. It almost is to serendipitous not to happen.

      Like

  54. Other Phillies making the league top 20’s:
    FSL: Biddle at #10, Morgan @#12,
    EL: Joseph @#10, Asche @ #17, Pettibone @ #18
    IL: Cloyd @#19

    Ruf got jobbed as did Martin

    Like

    1. I don’t think Ruf did, he just isn’t a prospect of the caliber of the other guys. I think Martin should have been on the Texas league list, I also thought May’s stuff would have had him over Pettibone

      Like

      1. I think he has become a prospect again. He has more power potential than probably anyone else in the EL and also hits for average. He’ll never run fast or be a great defender, but he hits well enough to be among the top 20 EL prospects. He is a certain major leaguer and likely a major league starter, certainly the RH part of a major league platoon.

        Like

        1. I think you are delusional, since you posted this I am guessing you have looked at the newest issue of BA. How is the right handed part of a major league platoon at 1B (at 26 years old) a better prospect than an almost certain #4 starter in AAA (Pettibone who came in at #19). Ruf isn’t a prospect like that, he just isn’t to think otherwise is to be delusional, he is a nice player who will provide some value but he isn’t anywhere close to that EL list (had he been in the International league he would have easily made it)

          Like

          1. I’m actually going to mildly defend allentown on this …. not that I find it outrageous or even surprising that Ruf was excluded, but I think you can make a case that he should not have been.

            Let’s do the Pettibone comparison. If indeed we’re comparing a 4th starter to a platoon player/reserve, you have a point. But I do think that Ruf, even at 26 years old, has a higher ceiling than that, even if it is more likely at first base than left field, and even if he is blocked in Philadelphia. And he obviously wins the proximity debate. Of course on the other hand Pettibone could be more than a #4 starter, but still I don’t think it’s delusional at this point to rank Ruf higher.

            Like

            1. I almost get the feeling that there is a backlash within the industry on Ruf because they continue to get inundated with questions on him based upon his season. I get the feeling listening to the BA podcast that they are almost exasperated at this point.

              Like

      1. He did qualify for Texas league list and didn’t make that either. He had the stats and stuff to make that list: 8-6, 3.58 ERA, 118 IP, 89 hits, 8.5 K/9, 1.27 WHIP. His negative was a high 4.6 BB/9

        Like

        2. 118 IP, 89 Hits….he has the ‘stuff’ for sure. Even with the high BB rate his WHIP was still an unspectular but respectable 1.27.

          Like

    1. 14. Indiana State JR LHP Sean Manaea
      15. Florida JR RHP Jonathan Crawford
      According to baseballdraftreport.com way too early yo judge that now though

      Like

  56. The phillies pitchers in the eight inning this year. 80 walks, 44 homeruns, on wip just now thats a lot of runnings for that one inning.

    Like

  57. Phillies are clearing out the coaching staff. Great moves IMO.

    Could never figure out why Greg Gross was hired in the first place… they fired him for a reason in 2004.

    The base running the last two years under Perlozzo has been awful. Was a terrible mistake to let Davey Lopes go.

    … and Pete Mackannin is obviously being let go to make room for Sandberg.

    I’m not all that concerned about Sandberg taking on an MLB job this winter. The Red Sox are an absolute trainwreck… not the situation you want to start your managerial career off with, Jeffrey Loria is a terrible owner to work for as a manager, and Tito’s going to get the Indians job. I don’t see a good situation out there.

    Here, he’s more than likely going to inherit (in 2013 or 2014) a championship caliber ball club with an understanding ownership group and an almost infinite payroll.

    Like

      1. When Lopes left the fire went out. He wasn’t afraid of the players which probably got him fired. Cholly likes peace and tranquility.

        Like

        2. What got him fired was a contract dispute. Interesting narrative though, however much of a figment of your imagination it may be.

          Like

    2. Don’t let facts get in the way of a narrative, but the Phillies were first in the league in SB % this year. Lopes worked well with young guys, I’ll give you that. However to say it was a terrible mistake to let him go but then have the team lead in SB% kinda defeats your premise no?

      Like

      1. I think letting Lopes go was a huge mistake, but I don’t think we’ll really see the effects until we’re working with a new core of players. Utley, Rollins, and Victorino (and everyone, really, they were just the biggest base stealers) were not just effective, but RIDICULOUSLY effective base stealers under Lopes’ tutelage. We have seen basically no stolen bases by people who didn’t learn from Lopes since his departure, but we’ll begin to see more and more and that is when we’ll see his true impact. It starts with Brown, then Asche (if he becomes our starting 3B), Galvis (in whatever capacity he fills), maybe Ruf, etc.

        As we see fewer players who learned from Lopes, especially if those players are prone to steal bases, I’m almost positive our efficiency will get lower and lower.

        Like

      2. There’s more to baserunning than stolen base percentages. 1st to 3rds were almost non existant, the jumps/leads were terrible, and it was overall careless.

        Like

  58. Just for some perspective on Brown, a guy who even big fans (and advocates of not putting too much weight on SSS) such as myself are getting impatient with.

    Brown, first 488 PA: wRC+: 92 (i.e., 92% as good as the average major league hitter)
    Gordon, first 1,642 PA: wRC+: 93

    Like

      1. from the reading i did, since i have the same question as you, is yes. I can’t properly explain this but the number 100 is the average, while every point above or below is 1% more or less than the average runs produced by a player. I found some names at 100 wRC+ being ben fransisco, leiberthal, melky cabrera, jody gerut, mookie wilson, and eric hinske among many others. still not really sure what this all means as i am not much of a stats guy. .

        Like

      2. I believe what he’s saying is that Alex Gordon had more than 3 times the number of plate appearances as Brown before he finally became the type of hitter he was projected to be. In other words, don’t give up on him yet.

        Like

          1. i do understand he meant to be patient, but i had no idea what the stat used meant. i thought the question asked was looking to clarify the stat and what it means

            Like

            1. On the other hand, one could use that argument to up his trade value (for say Alex Gordon..j/k). But Maybe Justin Upton or whomver RHB is more mature but still cheap…

              OR someone like Denard Span… MLBTraderumors said the Twins might listen especially since they are hurting for MLB starters (where my KK and Vance comments above come into play…). I think Brown’s upside may be too much for Span but…

              Like

            2. We really shouldn’t sell low on Brown now. He finished the season with a .260 BABIP and a 20.6% line drive rate. He’s decently fast, and hits a lot of line drives, so he’s probably been a little unlucky with “at ’em” balls to have a BABIP that low. If it were more like .290-.300, his batting line would look a lot better. His power hasn’t been what we hoped for but he’s still got a better command of the strike zone than most of the rest of the lineup.

              Like

  60. How can anyone go by top 20 prospect list, if cloyd is #19 that list is a joke,Based purely on stats, the guy isnt a prospect, you saw his stuff, He can’t pitch in the majors, with any degree of success,You guys should get off larry, he is a stat man, believes in what he says, its his opinion,just like the rest of us have opinions,

    Like

    1. If you look at the rest of the International League list, you begin to understand why Cloyd is 19. The IL was horrible this year for prospects. That happens from time to time. In an slightly below-average year for the league, Cloyd wouldn’t even sniff the top 20. The league was just that bad.

      Like

    2. In their weekly podcast the BP guys talk about it, just the nature of the races meant that a lot of guys who would have been in AAA enough to qualify moved up to the big leagues. The impact talent in the league is contained in the Top 4 (Matt Harvey, Starling Marte, Chris Archer, Julio Teheran). The rest of the list has back of the rotation starters, position players who either can’t hit or can’t field, and interesting bullpen arms.
      BA gives each like a rating out of 5 stars, the International League got a 1/5. Had he been in the IL Ruf likely would have been close to the Top 10.

      Like

  61. I like the moves personally. They make sense. I never had any perception that Gross was helpful at all, I never heard any players comment that he was helpful getting them back on track. Minor moves yes but changing the culture of the club house will be a good thing.

    Let the youth movement begin.

    Like

    1. Interesting, they kept Phillie folk hero from the 80s Juan Samuel. Probably a PR move and his connection with the Latin player.

      Like

  62. It’s the reason I quit commenting on here.Every time that I made a positive comment about Darin Ruf,here came a negative response.
    Darin Ruf (with his small sample size) has proved some of us right,He needed to be moved up and given a chance! As excited as I was about him,I didn’t expect him to do what he did.It’s to bad that Cholly didn’t give about six more starts.So what if they were still in the hunt,they weren’t going very far anyway.
    And sure the pitchers will make adjustments,how Darin Ruf adjusts to that will be the difference in how good he will be.After all,Ryan Howard could do much better too.

    Babe Ruff!! Babe Ruff!! That chant would sound good,if he turns out to be a good player.

    Like

  64. You know, there are a couple of issues here. I can be a bit overly acerbic, not that I’m the only one, in fact the past few days I’ve had far more abuse directed against me than I’ve dished out, but certainly the notion that we should all be less abusive to each other is well taken.

    On the other hand, it honestly baffles me that some people just want to state opinions unsupported by any kind of analysis, and don’t like it when someone actually argues a point. But whatever, it’s a free country, go ahead if that’s what floats your boat. But those of us who actually like to debate back and forth and use actual analysis – whether stat based or otherwise – are free to do that also. You don’t like it, don’t read it. And to get offended, as some people do, because some of us dare to take the position that a well supported, informed opinion is superior in some sense to a poorly or non-supported, uniformed opinion … is crazy.

    I mean, I know this is America and uninformed ignorance is counted as a virtue, so I’m not surprised some people are taking that position. I’d just surprised that people aren’t embarrassed to state it explicitly.

    Like

    1. And the irony here is that I don’t think I have some special or unique insight into the game of baseball. But there are a number of basic principals – many of which are linked at the top of this site, see “primer” – which are or should be, if not beyond all dispute, at least a starting point for discussion. If, for example, some of the Ruf boosters would at least acknowledge the reality of some of his barriers to a successful major league career, and the perils of relying upon a small sample, and then go on to argue he can overcome those barriers, or celebrate his accomplishments for what they are, we can go on to have an intelligent conversation. And some people do that. But there are people here who explicitly deny that the age factor means anything at all, or who deny that his outfield defense is a real concern.

      I’m fully capable of having respectful, intelligent conversations with people with whom I disagree. Even on something like “clutch” ability, there’s room for discussion and argument. But when an exchange goes like this, I throw up my hands:

      Commenter: Sure Galvis’ hitting numbers were poor, but he was just so “clutch.”
      Me: Actually, if you look at the numbers, he hit only .236 with runners in scoring position, and only .147 in the late innings of close games.
      Commenter: I don’t care about your geeky stats, I saw him play, and he was always getting hits in clutch situations.

      (Not an actual exchange, but typical of numerous actual exchanges.)

      Like

      1. I have to agree with Larry here. On the one or two occasions that I’ve entered a debate with him, we’ve both been civil while presenting our case and/or argument. If you enter a debate with him, you better be prepared because he will be.

        Like

  65. The one point about Ruf is that he hit when no one else was. Nothing fattening up on some poor loser about to be released.

    Like

  66. Is there anyway we cam get some more threads discussing actual prospects and not just bashing each other over things with the major league club. These General Discussion threads have become out of control monsters. I would much rather discuss the most recent scouting reports on Quinn, LGreene, Walding, and Franco that came out of BA, if I want to debate Ruf’s future with the team there are plenty of sites I can go to have these same ranting discussion. The point of this website is to discuss the prospects in the system that aren’t getting talked about by the people looking for the next call up to the bigs or next year’s starting 3B, we should be discussing the players in the GCL who may not even make hi-A but are just as interesting as a middle reliever sitting in AA (if not more so).

    Like

    1. 100% agree. This is supposed to be about “Phuture Phillies” not the “Phuture of the current Phillies”. The reason I have been obsessed with this site for 5 years now is the information provided here and cannot be found anywhere else. The recent discussions I could just stick to my Inquirerer daily paper for the same info.

      Like

    2. Ruf played the full minor league season in 2012. He played about 30 AB with the Phillies. He is still a minor leaguer. He just got one of the few September call-ups. That makes him still a prospect, still rookie-eligible, with less major league experience than Brown had while we were talking about him after 2011 as a prospect/minor leaguer, and indeed he spent time back in the minors in 2012. Talking about Ruf is not discussing the major league team. We discuss all of the prospects/minor leaguers primarily in terms of how they will ultimately fit with the big Phillies, not in terms of their possibly being a big cog in a pennant winner at Clearwater, Reading, or Allentown. That is why true prospects get more talk than a 30-year old mid-season fill-in from the Atlantic year, who may be doing well and helping Clearwater or Reading collect some more wins.

      Like

  67. Good to see that RAJ jumped into action immediately. It looks like Charlie was allowed to keep one buddy (Dubee) and in a year, both will be out. I’m not sure what Nichols will do for a year, maybe focus on all the young relievers that he knows so well. Good start RAJ! Players next. Please no more Mini Mart. I feel like I’ve played softball with guys better than him… Matt Gelb seems to thing that Charlie really wants BJ Upton but I’m not sure how much weight Charlie has at this point although I suspect they could simply push him upstairs after next year. I expect Texas to go hard after Justin Upton with Andrus as bait. They need to make changes. Its almost time to root for Asche and Joseph!

    Like

  68. I’ve obviously taken some time off of this site for a couple of weeks now. But alas, as uasual i’m back. Boy oh boy, lots of hate around here.

    So here’s my 2 cents.

    Ruf has looked great since he’s come up. When I say “looked great”, I’m not talking about his statistics, becuase in reality it’s a relatively small sample size. (though it does fall in line with his work in AA, so it’s shouldn’t be much of a suprise).

    His work in left field hasn’t been horrible, and at the very least, I’ve learned that if we can get a well above average center fielder (range), Ruf, with lots of practice, has a fair chance of being below average but serviceable. At this point, the over-under on AB’s for Ruf next year through April are 50. I think he’ll be a “part-time” starter, say 50% of the games, with half of those games he comes out in the 7th inning. Now, come May/June things could change. If Ruf’s can be Raul Ibanez both at the plate and in LF (15% chance this happens). Think of a slash line like .293 .358 .479. (last year in seattle). I think he’ll have a chance to be a full time starter and end the year with 20-25 HR’s or so (per 600 AB’s).

    Most likely result = He becomes a bench bat for all of next year with the occasional spot start. (50%)

    Best result = Raul Ibanez in Left (15%)

    Worst Result = Is sent back to the minors as forever AAAA filler. (35%)

    Like

  69. AFL starts Tuesday, October 9, 2012….. Surprise @ Peoria 12:35PM MST

    Tuesday, October 9, 2012

    Scottsdale
    @ Phoenix

    12:35PM MST

    Surprise @ Peoria 12:35PM MST

    Like

  70. With the regular season ended the Phillies tentative picks in the 2013 draft are :
    #16, #52, #89, #96 (for failure to sign Rash), the Phillies first round pick (#16) is not protected and they will lose it if they sign a free agent offered a qualifying offer by their original team, note that due to the new rules their later picks should not shift in number since the pick will disappear for the signing team and will be given in the supplemental round to the original team
    (they are the 15th worse team meaning they also get the 15th biggest pool for Latin America spending)

    Like

      1. 52 is their 2nd round pick and 89 is their 3rd round pick. Without the huge supplemental round everything has moved up. Even though Rash was a 2nd round pick that pick now appears in the 3rd but that is really just a relic because it is only one pick later than the one they used on Rash

        Like

  72. I was really interested in the dodgers. Having committed 200 million to next years salary, and saying the tax won’t bother them,They will spend more if it improveds them. wow

    Like

  75. Rangers falter again…watch for Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels to test the waters on Cliff Lee’s availability.

    Like

    1. Look for them to send Andrus for Justin Upton. Profar will start next year. Phil’s won’t trade Lee, no chance.

      Like

  76. just myopinion, but not real high on the potential FA options avail this coming year………hate to see the phillies sign any FA who will cost them their first round pick. Would love to see another solid
    draft in June 2013 and continue to build the farm system.
    Hoping RA finds an outfielder via trade. Need one more reliable 7/8 inning reliever. While I am not happy with the 2012 season…..I don’t think they are to far away. Also, count me in on the RUF bandwagon

    Like

  77. Next closest Mike Trout…KC’s OF Bubba Starling. Would offer Kendrick or Worley, May or Morgan, and Valle up for him.

    Like

Comments are closed.