Light schedule Monday, with the DSL season ended, a rainout in Daytona and an off-day for Lakewood. FYI – DSL is into the playoffs now, and the Phils did not make it into the tourney. They finished 32-36, well off the pace in the Boca Chica South division.
Worth mentioning 2H and 2R each from Darin Ruf and Cody Asche, (including Ruf’s 36th HR, if that kind of thing interests you), but what a line from Trevor May: 8IP, 2H 1 R, 0BB, 9K. 3 flyball outs, 8 on the ground. That’s top notch.
Elsewhere, every Williamsport Crosscutter had at least 1 hit, as Josh Warner shut down Jamestown on 4 hits over 6 scoreless IP.
Phuture Phillies 
Austin Wright won FSL pitcher of the year, as voted in by coaches and league officials.
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surprised it wasn’t biddle, but wright’s had a really good year, too.
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That is quite a slap to Biddle
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Good year, flawed vote.
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“May feels like he’s a better pitcher now than he was in the first month of the season, when he cruised to a 5-0 record. A breakout outing is coming, he insists. ”
Well played, Mr. May…
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+1
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i would like to discuss one negative about cody asche…his last name…it makes me want to say “ash” not “ash-ee”
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I had this problem for a while too, stadium announcers having problems too, “Frenchy” in Reading said “ash” once, in Harrisburg they called him “ash” twice (in two games) and in Trenton they called him “ash” for most of his AB’s. Hopefully he is little more understanding than Aumont is, that guy got really pissed
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To clarify, Phillippe is pronounced like Fil-lee-pay, right?
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I don’t think so, if my French serves me well it’s Phil-EEEP OH-mahn (no “T”)
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its Phil-Leap
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well now i feel stupid… reminds me of when i used to mispronounce valle.
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Best nickname there is. Cody Smasche
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Ruf continues to entertain.
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With May’s great start I was looking at the 2008 draft and it is amazing how good it was:
24. Hewitt (when you go all tools you lose sometimes)
34. Collier (restored prospect status)
51. Gose (major league OF, still has issues, key to Oswalt trade)
71. Knapp (injury riddled, key to Lee trade)
102. Worley (major league #4)
109. Pettibone (low end #3/high end #4 in AAA)
136. May (#3 in AA, has some control issues)
256. J-Rod (middle reliever?)
346. Stutes (major league middle reliever)
406. Rosenberg (major league middle reliever)
436. Schwimmer (major league middle reliever with chance at a little more)
556. Cloyd (possible #5 starter)
1156. Cosart (possible #2/#3 or closer in AAA, key to Pence deal)
Assuming nothing drastic happens to the guys in AA/AAA that is:
9 major leaguers (1 position, 4-5 starters, 3-4 relievers)
3 still have a chance (Collier, J-Rod, Hewitt)
It is low on position players but that is a ton of major league talent from one draft and pieces that have secured other players
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But you’re assuming best case scenario for a lot of guys who haven’t done anything in the majors. Knapp and Hewitt are lost causes. Cloyd and JRod have major questions about their stuff. Pettibone has a career 6.4 K/9 rate. It’s pretty unheard of for a guy who strikes out so few batters to have any success as a big league starter. Gose, Rosenberg, and Schwimmer have actually had negative value in their brief ML stints. Stutes had some value last year, but who knows what you’re getting from him going forward.
Worley has been solid. Gose, May, and Cosart are probably all about 50/50 to be regular contributors. Beyond that there’s probably very little value. The best thing you can say about the draft so far is they sold high on a few guys to help get Lee and Oswalt.
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Simply drafting 9-10 guys who will get a cup of coffee in the bigs is an immense achievement. That draft is sick.
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I looked randomly at the 2002 draft and most teams had 6-7 guys get a cup of coffee. A few had 10-11. I’m guessing 3-4 teams a year end up with that many guys making it. It’s not that uncommon.
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Exactly Mike. If you’re good enough to get to the Majors, you’re doing something right. The fact that these guys get that far or have been used to acquire some good pieces in return is fantastic. Imagine if every draft was like that. That would be sick.
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Knapp is a lost cause, but he was the key piece in getting Lee from Cleveland = successful draft pick.
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The 2008 draft has already been a success. They got a starter in Worley, and they flipped Gose and Knapp for major league pieces. In general, you want to get 1 starter per draft (rotation, position player, closer). Anything above this is a bonus.
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It was a success already from the Phils perspective. I just disagreed with how Matt evaluated some of the talent from the draft.
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This is precisely the type of start you love to see from Trevor May as the playoffs draw near. And let’s not ignore Justin Friend’s exclamation point, striking out the side and allowing no baserunners in the ninth. (0.24 ERA with 23 saves … yikes).
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Quinn with his 28th stolen base … he leads the NY/Penn by four. LGJ with a nice game, getting on base three times, even if he gets caught stealing.
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So I lied, May didn’t face one over the minimum, it was two, with the hit batsman, which I had forgotten about. It wasn’t a plunker just skimmed the guys elbow guard.
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Just as a curiousity is Justin Friend lobbing the ball to the plate and the hitters are laughing so hard that they miss the ball because with the line he has for the year I would think that he should now be a pretty good prospect notwithstanding the fact that no one seems to care about the “prospectiveness” of middle relievers.
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10 Comments and not 1 so far about how Darin Ruf and Cody Asche will never be major league players???? I was about to request that this website be changed to Ihatedarinrufandcodyasche.com… you guys have lost your touch.
Only a solo HR for Ruf?? hes crap
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Or maybe it could be changed to IKnowSquatAboutScoutingButAmCertainDarrinRufIsGoingToBeAStar.com
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No one here has said Asche won’t be a ML player, matter fact I think all the rational posters on this site feel he will be, just not full time before the start of 2014 baring injuries at the ML level in mid-late 2013 and an outsanding performance in the AFL.
The debate between rational posters is really about what his cieling is. Is he a 2nd tier or 3rd tier 3rd basemen. At this point there is zero reason to believe he’s All-Star level capable, so that’s out. (Not that it couldn’t happen, but the odds are very very small).
I am one of the rational Asche boosters on this site and I see him as peaking as an .800 OPS 3B, that’s excellent, and would be perfect for the phillies long-term.
As to Ruf, most rational posters think he’ll be nothing but a bench bat long term. I personally have a harder time with this one but for me it’s all about LF, if he can play a 35-40 (on the scouting scale) LF or if Ryan Howard suffers a major injury, he’ll get a real chance. Baring that, I just don’t see it happening and his current age is a concern. He would have had to hit .400 with 70 home runs this year for scouts to change their tune. I am really excited about Ruf, I’m hoping he can be a player that comes out of no-where and dominates ala Bautista. The odds are so stacked against him though that most rational posters refuse to accept that as a possible outcome.
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I want Asche to be better than David Bell/Pedro Feliz.
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That’s a fairly low bar – I think as a hitter, he probably will be better than either player. Both those guys, though, had significant defensive value, probably more so than Asche can be projected to have at this point. But whole package, will be be better than those guys? Yes, probably.
My guess I’d be slammed for negativity for that, but I just projected a guy with a half year in AA and less than 1,000 minor league PA as probably having a better career than two long time major league players. I’d say that makes me an optimist. 🙂 But to give yet another example of why some of us tend to have more … restrained … expectations of our prospects, take a look at Bell’s age 20 season in AA and (especially) his age 21 season in AAA.
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Someone last week mentioned Asche as being a Daniel Murphy type bat. If that is realistic, and he can catch the ball better than Greg Dobbs, I’ll take that all day from a 4th round pick.
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.289 .338 .427 that’s daniel murphy’s career slash… i’d be happy with that as well though I personally think he has slightly more power then that. 24 Homeruns over 1500 AB’s, meh.
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If Asche can do that, I’d be pretty happy.
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I thin that one of the baseball america guys who threw out the Murphy comp. Said he was like Murphy on offense but was better defensively. That might not be saying much considering how bad Murphy is with the glove, but if a guy like him can get that many MLB starts, Cody will start for somone if he’s at least average at third.
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I would be very happy if Asche turning in the career that David Bell had. Though he was a bit over the hill before he got to the phils he was a very respectable 3b. If asche has a very respectable career that has got to be a huge win.
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Oh, Steve, how can you be so negative? Satisfied with only a 12 year major league career with over 5000 PA? Can’t you see that his unprecedented … well, okay, uncommonly good … well okay, quite nice … less than a half year in AA projects him as a STAR. I mean, a third baseman with half a year of .301/.354/.521 in AA doesn’t come around that often … at least not more than once or twice a season. If you aren’t projecting Asche to be a perennial all star, you’re just an overly negative wet blanket.
/sarcasm
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Serious question for the projection and saber guys, when assessing a player out of college with a SSS do you ever factor in college or experience?? as in you factor the player as more advanced than a HS draftee with the same amount of minor league time?? Do you factor in success in college or fallacies in their college game?
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If the information is available, I personally factor that stuff in. If a player flashed power in college, but isn’t showing it in his first year of pro-ball I tend to believe the power will manifest itself within the next year or so. If a pitcher walked a ton of guys in college, I worry about that until they prove they have gotten it under control. However, those numbers also need to be taken with a grain of salt because college =/= professional ball. I’m sure there are some people who don’t factor it in at all, though. Hopefully that answers your question.
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What makes you say that there is zero reason to believe he’s All Star level capable?
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I’ll give you a few reasons:
1. While his ISO is currently up to .220, his k rate is also up to 19.2%. This rate is one of the strongest predictors of a “plus” hit tool.
2. Even though he’s hitting over .300, his BABIP is .343 in AA (and even higher in A+), this means we should expect a mild regression. Maintaining a .325 BABIP is more reasonable for Asche given his average speed.
3. His power has only really “shown up” for the last 61 games, and in a power friendly park. Yes his splits are encouraging (home/away), so I discount the park issue a bit, but it’s still a relatively small sample size, I am looking forward to his resultings in LHV.
4. Age: 22 season. At this point he is “age appropriate” for his league. Meaning he doesn’t get the benefit of “projection” near to the degree of someone like Joesph. So when I look at his stat lines, I neither add in projection or discount for being over-age.
5. His walk rate is 7% flat. Take a look at someone like chase utley in his prime (or even today), part of what made him an all-star second basemen from an offensive perspective was the fact that he got on base so much. Even if you’re a skeptic of a walk, and discount it in comparison to a single more then the ordinary person would, it’s still a postive outcome becuase to score runs, you’ve got to get on base. Being able to take walks like this means you’ll get better pitches to hit and it should bring up your batting average (meaning you’re not swinging and striking out or weakly hitting balls outside the zone)
6. His defense profiles in a best case scenario to being slightly above average, this lack of “gold glove” defense means him making the AS team is all about his bat.
The above to me are why Cody Asche doesn’t profile as an all-star 3rd baseman.
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I think there’s a slow realization emerging that even if Ruf hits 5 HRs tonight he ain’t goin anywhere so whats the point in talking about him. Ruf needs to learn to play LF and Asche needs to improve his fielding. There may be more to talk about next year.
The excitement about Cloyd wore out earlier this year. Same situation. He ain’t movin. Interesting thing about Cloyd … Amaro acknowledged that he has NEVER seen him pitch. That speaks volumes. Perhaps they have a lot of faith in Sandberg’s opinion. Amaro admitted earlier that Sandberg had been talking his ear off about how they had to bring up this Frandsen kid. So maybe Ryne knows what he’s talkng about.
Meanwhile, Joe Savery is still on the 40 man roster ? Really ??
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Savery is a joker. What’s fun about Ruf is the “if.” Who knows, maybe at best he could be a Bryan LaHair like with Cubs. Come up, have a nice little run, turn some heads, get us some wins and then turn into a half-decent bench bat. That wouldn’t be too bad. But even if he’s a 4 or 5 OF, that’s not the worst case. They have value too. People just need to calm down acting like he’s Barry Bonds on the juice.
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If you had the reading comprehension of a 5 year old, you would realize that, without exception, “negative” comments about Asche and Ruf – and I put negative in quotes for a reason, since with Asche especially even the “negative” comments are really pretty darn positive – are without exception in response to absurdly over the top positive comments. Since this thread, until now, has been blessedly free of those sorts of over the top comments, the knowledgeable posters haven’t felt the need to bring the topic up.
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I wish I could make this a private message, becuase I don’t want to flame the crazies, but say Ruf is in AAA next year at age 26, what kinds of numbers would he need for scouts to project him as legit at 1B? .350/.525/.800? How about with a 35/40 (defense) in LF? .325/.500/.700?
Is it even possible?
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I would think if he put those kind of numbers up in AAA he would be taken pretty darn seriously.
That said, obviously part of the problem is that, at his age, even one more year in the minors puts him further behind the age curve. And the reality is that, even if some level his fans are right about what he COULD do in the majors, the fact is players his age DON’T get opportunities, rightly or wrongly.
The elephant in the room is Ryan Howard. I actually think at this point Ruf projects better as a first baseman than a LF – given reports on his fielding, the negative value of his fielding in LF probably outweighs the difference in positional value between a first baseman and a left fielder.
But, if we assume that he can play an average first base defensively, here’s what an average first baseman in the majors is hitting this year (this is going to shock you, it shocked me, and I’m almost reluctant to post it because it’s just going to give fuel to the “crazies”):
.256/.329/.438 (BA/OBP/SLG)
This is, for some reason, a down year for first basemen. Anyway, my projection for Ruf in the general thread – an optimistic projection, though I’m sure I’ll be slammed as negative – was a little better than that. So I guess you can make a case for him “deserving” a shot – but will he get it? Not here, at least as a full time first baseman, for obvious reasons.
Not sure that really answered your question, though. 🙂
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Interestingly enough, that means Ryan Howard is a league average player rocking a .780 OPS at 1B, then again, it’s the first year of his career that he’s been below .834 (last year). He’s been on a down ward slope each of the last two years though (3 including this one) which has to scare you as a phillies fan.
Ruf’s “Phillies” equivalant is .261/.337/.483, good for an .820 OPS…
The bigger issue isn’t really how anyone (us, phillies, national press) evaluate Ruf, the issue is that Howard contract.
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Lots of injured first baseman this year … Helton, Texeira, Howard, Loney. Could be the reason for the lower numbers.
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I can tell you one thing it is not because of Loney
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Nasty when people disagree with “The Great Poobah” aren’t you?
Please tell us when your class on reading comprehension, rhetoric, and composition you will be giving.
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So LarryM, are you the “self annointed” determining factor on who is and isn’t a “knowledgable poster”? And in your most humble opinion, do you consider someone who attacks another poster as being a racist and a piece of $%#& because they might have an opinion which differs from yours a “knowledgable poster”? And finally, would a “knowledgable poster” hope that someone whose opinion he disgrees with “die a painfully slow death in a fire”? Think about this your highess, you should be ashamed of yourself. Finally, I was wondering, it takes someone with the “reading comprehension of a five year old to be able to identify such a trait in another poster”. You are very astute LarryM. It takes a big brave man to hind behind your PC and write the things you write about other people knowing full well you will never have to stand face to face with the very same people you choose to attack. Keep it up LarryM, you nauseate me!
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Maybe you should start your own website where can tell us all about how Darin Ruf is going to be the next Ryan Howard. You can call the place iliketomakeinflammatorystatements.com
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10 comments without an Asche/Ruf downplay, so you felt obligated to bring it up yourself? And look at the result below. It’s time to refresh the content when guys who claim to be bored of the monotony are the very ones who can’t help but introduce the same topic over and over again.
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Let’s talk about Matt Rizzotti!
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?? Rizzotti hit a wall at AAA. Ruf is blocked by Overbeck. So we may never know. 🙂
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I prefer to talk about Derrick Mitchell and how he will be the 4th OF for the Phillies in 2013.
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May this month: 35.2 IP, 37 Ks, 11 BBs. Musta heard Jim Callis call him a middle reliever.
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BA Prospect Pitcher of the Day no less.
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I continue to like the walks by LGJ, wish the power would come but I don’t really expect to see it this year. May looking like the #1 pitcher in the system he was coming into the year. Hope that continues for the rest of his starts. The Ruf and Asche show continues.Quinn’s SB’s looking great, he’s got a fairly good sucess rate. Hernandez is really floundering in AAA in a SSS compared to AA hoping to see a pick-me-up there before the year ends.
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LGJ’s power will come … he’s tied for fifth in the NY/Penn in doubles (17), and its not like he’s got the wheels to stretch singles, so he’s clearly driving the ball. Interestingly, Serritella leads the league with 24 doubles … I’d like to see him jumped to Clearwater next year.
I’m not worried about Cesar … let’s not forget he struggled with the double jump to High A last season but ended up putting it together. He’s getting a good taste this season and will be in a position to grow there next year.
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Interesting point on the placement in the NYP league for doubles. It’s probably one of the more useful comparisons that I shamefully admit to not paying enough attention to (league rank). It’s a good way of equalizing for “league factor”, and should be something I consider, especially at the lower levels. It seems average/peak statistics league wide at AA and AAA and MLB (to a lessor degree) are so similiar that it doesn’t make a big difference. There’s also the fact that players at those lower levels just haven’t built up the strength and corridination required to power balls 400 yrds in live game action, and that lack of skills is evident when looking at top players.
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Most impressive thing about May’s performance, it only took him 86 pitches to get through 8 innings
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with 9 K’s … just not easy to do that in so few pitches
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What is Schwimer thinking? He’s fighting a battle that he may win, but he’s sure to lose the war. He was going to get called up in less than 2 weeks on Sept 1 anyway, not sure I understand why its worth fighting a battle against the front office? I know it will cost him two weeks of big league salary but in the grand scheme of things its probably not worth fighting city hall over. I can’t see any scenario where the Phils would think he’s injured and wanting him to go pitch injured in AAA. Very weird situation.
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Ya know, he was asked to not use his twitter feed either. I know he’s done some posting on this site, and we are all greatful, but he needs to know his role on this team, in this organization, and all of baseball. Right now, he’s a mediocre middle reliever. Not a setup guy, not a closer, but a 6-7 inning guy…. a rookie. Shut up and keep working to be better than what you are.
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Exactly
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100 percent agreed, I understand the concern he has a player about his arm, that’s his livelihood at the moment, fine get a second opinion, but not reporting to LV just does not look good, especially when fans really haven’t been having warm fuzzy feelings about him. The articles coming out about this subject, really make him look like a sore loser on this and no doubt possibly are even being driven ny the Phillies PR department. He would have been up in a couple weeks, now it’s feasible that he won’t be. And for a mediocre reliever with plenty of young arms to compete against. He may have just royally screwed himself. Been told he will be in LV in two days, but the damage has been done.
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wait what did he do?
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He took a couple of days to report to Lehigh Valley after getting sent down because he wanted to get a second opinion on his shoulder. I see absolutely nothing wrong with this. If my livelihood depended on the health of my arm, and it wasn’t feeling right, I would want to get it checked out. In fact, I think Schwimer should be applauded for taking responsibility for his own health instead of trying to prove he’s tough in order to impress the organization (or, god forbid, internet commenters) and throwing himself into a major injury.
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I have no doubt he feels he is not healthy, or even injured, but there is a correct way to do things. He didn’t report because he was mad that the Phillies sent him down to AAA, for 2 weeks, rather than pay him a major league salary for the 2 weeks. He already has been quoted that he did not like the way it was handled.
IMO, he is being terribly shortsighted. He isn’t a great pitcher, that will force his way onto the opening day roster. He doesn’t need his employers pissed, when deciding who the 11th and 12th pitcher should be. He should have ate the 2 weeks, and told Sandberg he couldn’t pitch when he got there, instead of telling the media.
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What is the consensus on J. Friend?? Will he be up at LHV next season no doubt?? Im sure he gets a look at ST, alot of players do early on in ST…. IS he on the right track??
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Friend got to pitch 14.1 innings in 12 appearances at LHV this season. He struck out 13, but surrendered 21 hits in those 14.1 innings. It seems that he would have little left to prove at AA and a lot left to prove at AAA, so I would expect him to start next season at LHV and if he does well, perhaps the Phillies would bring him up when they need relievers, as they seem to do every year.
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Over the top, Asche? “Curb Your Enthusiasm”!!??
Enthusiasm NOT welcome.?
Apologies.
The blind includes those who refuse to see.
That’s OK…Asche will take care of that/them.
Why keep telling us that he is not worth the “over the top” praise and to stop posting such enthusiasm, and then in the next breath continue to tell us what kind of “weaknesses” he has?
Each day brings further verification of a terrific season he’s had and continues to have which surely makes it difficult to keep saying “Nay.” But there are those who say “nay” which seems to be the covering of a wet blanket. But if it makes them happy, I say “go for it.” But don’t expect others to ignore the facts, stats, and numbers…plus attitude.
Enjoy!
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If this was “survivor,” you would have been voted off the island by now.
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Being snarky, are we?
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I just think it’s annoying that the incredibly positive outlook that most people on this site have for Asche isn’t enough for Art, that he still feels the need to, on a daily basis, repeat essentially the same post about how blind everyone is for not recognizing that Asche is a future star.
This isn’t like the Ruf situation, where there are still people not acknowledging that he is more than a marginal prospect. I mean, I’m one of those people, albeit more positive than some, but, if you think Ruf is a great prospect, then sure I can see wanting to convince the doubters. but everyone around here loves Asche.
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The kind of person who is annoyed by someone elses optimism is called a jackass, Larry. Just leave him alone.
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Really? Can’t take it?…get off the train. And, when Cody DOES become our 3rd baseman…and does well, I’ll still be here to watch you crawl.
Nasty, are you?
Take a pill, you’ll be better off.
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ArtD-I like to think if Cody Asche gets selected to the AFL and fares well, ie top ten OBP and OPS in the league, and then begins next season at LHV and by June is still maintaing his current slash line and defensively handling the field, then he probably gets his opp., maybe in Sep 2013. He needs more on his resume.
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Stop acting like a martyr. It’s a baseball prospect site.
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Go away larrym, ugh
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Are you a very religious person?
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I think that was almost haiku.
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+1
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WTG Art. I don’t agree with you that Asche will be a superstar in the league but I appreciate your blatant enthusiasm for the kid.
And guys I take offense when you say “the more knowledgable posters on this site” Really? What makes you more knowledgable? Fact is you’re a hack fan like the rest of us LOL and if you were superior in scouting knowledge and statistical evaluation of prospects you’d be the new Jonah Hill working for DePodesta in some FO somewhere not tooling around here.
Point is there is room enough here for everyone. Last I checked Bill James hasn’t even come up with the magic formula that delves into OBP and OPS and DRS that determines sure fire MLB players. MiLB stats aren’t facts. MLB stats on the other hand are the true story.
Sheesh! I love you guys and all but the high and mighty attitudes I can do without.
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Well there are, obviously, more knowledgeable people here than others because that’s just how it works. Someone out of us knows the most, and someone knows the least (I suspect the one who knows the least changes daily as new people find the site). But I don’t recall anyone grouping us into the more-knowledgeable and less-knowledgeable categories. I may have missed that, though.
I support him being enthusiastic, but to a point. He blatantly just called the majority of us blind for not believing the same thing he does (that Asche will be a superstar). The irony being that we’re blind because we “choose not to see” and he goes on to say “weaknesses” in quotation marks as if Asche has none. Even Albert Pujols (or Mike Trout, since he may be shortly taking over crown of “best hitter in the MLB”) has weaknesses.
Art, you’re choosing not to see his sub 7% (6.79%) walk rate for his minor league career. That is a weakness. He can overcome it as long as he has exceptional batted ball abilities (high line drive rate, high contact rate), but overcoming a weakness doesn’t mean you don’t still have it. Also, you claimed he has above-average speed. He has 11 SB (6 CS) in 191 games. I’m not seeing much to suggest his speed is anything to talk about. You suggest he could add more power as he gets older (questionable at this point, but I’ll give it to you), but he’ll also get slower. If we assume he’s average now, won’t that leave another below-average skill as he “fills out?” These are weaknesses. I’ll even leave defense out of this, because that’s still up in the air. Note I’m not saying he cant be a productive MLB player with these weaknesses, but I’m not choosing to ignore he has them.
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I really do have to stop this … especially since, unlike the Ruf debate, really Art is mostly alone on this – he’s just about the only guy projecting Asche as a star at this point. But there is an interesting point regarding the alleged lack of “weaknesses.” It’s not really true, but, depending upon how you define “weaknesses” I can almost see his point – in that there is no skill that you can look at and say for sure that Asche will be a below average major league player. Even his BB rate, while not great, would be near the major league average if he were able to maintain it in the majors.
No, the reason Asche doesn’t project as a star isn’t because of his weaknesses – it’s because of his strengths. Really he doesn’t project as a “plus” player on any skill. Power projects as average at best, plate discipline average at best, contact skills average at best, fielding average at best, speed average at best. Average across the board pretty much. That’s not the profile of a star. I’d almost prefer a player who had a couple of holes in his game, but one or two plus skills.
Which, of course, is not to deny that Asche is a great prospect. A player who is an average regular at a premium position has an immense amount of value. How many times do I, and others, need to say this? How crazy is it that the consensus on this board regarding Ashe – an incredibly positive consensus, well ahead of the scouting consensus – is regarded by Art as not just as wrong, but as “blind.” How is it that the people who put is statistics in context – are the guys “ignor[ing] the facts, stats, and numbers?” Crazy.
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You don’t have to stop anything. You’re just kind of being a dick. It doesn’t hurt you for Art to be optimistic, just shut up and mind your own business. Napoleanic mother****er.
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Enthusiasm NOT OK? Being put down for enthusiasm seems tawdry; oftentimes by people who can’t see the almost unbelievable progress for a 3rd baseman now close to the bigs when our 3rd base vacuum is apparent.
There are those who would advise that a 3rd baseman be acquired via trade or otherwise….when this guy with amazing credentials is right on our doorstep. IMO, that is crazy!
Feel free to disagree. I’ve stated my opinion and I find no reason, based on his continuing daily success, to alter my opinion at all.
If you or anybody just can’t tolerate a booster of one or more of our prospects, then why follow the minors at all? And please don’t tell me that his continuing success AND his numbers don’t tell you what I’ve been saying.
Go to the box score each night and see what has been his numbers that day…and then go to see what he’s done over his last 30-40 games, and then tell me whether or not that bespeaks a seriously superior player. Further, please tell me about the last Phils prospect that had such numbers at AA, meaning, BA, OBA, extra base hits and better than average speed on the bases, and with greater power to come (it IS there) as he grows and adds some muscle weight. All this for a guy who is now 22 (?).
You and others can look elsewhere for a 3rd baseman; myself, I see one at the door.
than average speed on the bases.
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I have to assume you’re not really reading our posts at this point. Everyone here (that has talked about this) believes Asche can make an impact at the MLB level. We just see you making these outrageous claims about Asche and then when we point out our skepticism you bemoan us as being negative or “blind to the numbers.” We’re trying to be realistic (because that’s healthy) and we’ve been giving you plenty of numbers. Numbers that you, in turn, have ignored.
By the way, everyone that plays baseball in the MiLB or MLB is a superior player. That’s why they get paid to play. Superior doesn’t necessarily mean good enough for the Show.
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ArtD, I think you and I need to start the LarryM fan club. Is he the most grating a-hole who ever touched a keybooard. I often wonder how he types when one hand is wrapped so tightly aound himself “stroking” his overinflated ego!
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This type of crap was cracked down on far more under James.
His presence on the site is missed.
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But you are related to him, aren’t you Art? Or high school buddies maybe? Come on, you can admit it. We would actually respect you more.
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I’ve been watching the Phils since when Tony Curry, Jackie Albright, Ralph LaPoint were put forth as promising newbies for the team.
Your scarcasm iS appreciated since it comes from a know-it-all who easily can be dismissed by your resorting to ad hominum attacks. Those who have NOTHING worthwhile to contribute do that.
You qualify as a Republican! Keep it up!
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Watching a team for a long time doesn’t make you an expert. In fact, it doesn’t mean you know anything at the sport. I’m not saying you don’t, in fact I’m quite sure you know a decent amount, but I’ve seen people make this argument before and it is invalid. You don’t have to be well-versed in baseball to follow a baseball team, that’s how the whole “pink hat” movement got started.
For those of you unfamiliar with the term, “pink hats” are a somewhat slang term for fans of a team that are more or less bandwagon fans. Don’t be insulted if you have a pink hat.
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My cap is Blue with a Red “P” on it. I surely confess to being a longtime fan of the team and baseball. I offer reasons for my enthusiasm. Other contend that my excitement is over the top. I do not feel sorry about that; while others offer all their reasons that he won’t be superior. Fine.
But my feelings/opinions will not change until Cody does poorly, which he has not…overcoming the obstacles of climbing through the system, and extremely well at that.
If you can’t tolerate enthusiasm, then skip my posts. It’s not difficult.
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So…experience is NO teacher…? Hmm.
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Watching isn’t experience. PLAYING is experience. Watching is observing/being entertained. The people who watch without really knowing what’s going on are being entertained, the people who know what’s going on are observing (with entertainment as an added benefit).
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please keep your political views off PP! Not the place for it.
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Despite my great foreboding, I feel compelled to make a few observations that, in my opinion, have been guiding the discussion on Ruf.
1) At any point in the evaluation of a prospect, you have 2 questions to consider. How well is the prospect performing at his current level of competition and how well will he perform at the next level. The answer to the first question is obvious, the second is more or less pure speculation. In general, however, the performance of most prospects gets worse as the competition gets better. Thus, high school players that are drafted have fantastic high school batting averages that they will never duplicate in professional ball. A kid that bats .250 in high school has little chance of being drafted. The assumption being that he will never do any better than he’s doing now and will do progressively worse as the competition gets tougher.
2) So, as we look at Phillies prospects and dream of one becoming a “superstar”, we look for one who at least looks like a superstar at his current level of competition. Of course we know that at the next level he may fizzle out. But if he is already mediocre at his current level what chance is there that he will suddenly excel at the next level (yes, I know there are exceptions). So when we find a Phillies prospect that clearly is currently a superstar ( and there haven’t been that many), we fantasize that he will continue at that level all the way to the ML. If we’re wrong, we’ll soon find out. What’s wrong with holding on to that fantasy until it’s proved wrong. No one, including the scouts, knows for sure who will successfully meet the next level of competition and who will not.
3) So, as I see it, it depends on whether you’re an optimist (dreamer to some of you), or a pessimist. I think you’re happier and live longer if you’re an optimist but to each his own.
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All of that makes a lot of sense, but the issue you are leaving out is everyone here has a different definition of “superstar” performance.
IMO, nobody in the system currently is performing at a superstar level. The only two close, are Biddle and Franco’s 2nd half splits.
We’ve gone down this before. (Mathieson, Austin Hyatt, Rizzotti, Overbeck) If you aren’t age appropriate you are not performing at a superstar level. You are dominating competition that you should dominate.
And before the inevitable “who’s fault is it that he is only in AA at 26?”: it is basically his fault. He didn’t sign out of HS, He didn’t sign after his JR year. He didn’t hit at a special level as a player in High A. If he did, he would have forced a promotion, the same way Asche did in his 1st full season.
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While I mostly agree with you, Ruf’s .903 OPS last year was 2nd in the FSL. He didn’t force a mid-season promotion, but he was arguably deserving of one.
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Lenny,
A revealing post on your part.
There are really at least three different issues here … the MAIN one is how you make reasonable projections of prospects, and it’s clear from this post & others that you have no clue about that. Ruf has a ZERO percent chance of “superstar” status, while there are several Phillies prospects that have a non-zero (albeit low) chance of someday achieving such status. The OPTIMISTIC take on Ruf is that he could be a decent major league regular. THAT’S one of the reasons some of us would prefer to spend time taking about guys like Quinn, Tocci, and even Biddle, who have higher ceilings than a guy like Ruf – who could, if everything breaks right for them, be superstars.
Now, on the optimism/pessimism front, that’s a different issue. Whatever disposition is better for real life, for projecting prospects, IMO a “realistic” disposition is, it seems to me, what is desirable. Maybe, as fans, err slightly on the side of optimism. I am very comfortable with myself on that front – I think my projections are on the optimistic side of realistic. The fact that I try to reign in the most over the top “optimistic” projections on some prospects doesn’t make me a “pessimist.”
Finally, given the low chance that ANY prospect can be a super star, MOST of us on this site would, for the most part, prefer not to go there. Again, not an optimism/pessimism issue – a prospect with the potential to be a solid major league regular – like Asche – has enormous value, and some of us enjoy talking about such prospects, and doing so in a realistic manner.
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you can’t say he has ZERO chance, but I get and pretty much agree with the rest of what you say.
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Let’s put it this way – given his age/level/performance/position/defense – the whole package but focusing on age/level, even playing as a regular in the majors at all would be highly unusual. I think that stardom would be basically without precedent in the modern history of major league baseball.
So yeah, I think I can say zero chance.
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As a they say in quantum, there’s no such thing as a zero percent chance.
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That’s generally the mantra I follow.
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There you go again,LarryM. You continue to amaze me in that you know everything while everyone else knows nothing. The only opinion that matters is your own. You are a “legend in your own mind”!
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Darin’s 36th
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Here are highlights of the whole game, including a gorgeous defensive play by Cody Asche (must have been when I was in line getting pic taken with WS trophies)
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Jeriemy, since you are obviously at the games, can you comment on how Ruf is doing in the outfield.
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Honestly with as much as I’ve seen him out there I should have at least somewhat of an opinion but really I don’t. I’ve seen some great plays I’ve seen some bonehead plays.
Things I have seen
-If its hit to him he will catch it
-Mobility is limited of course
– decision making – decent
– arm is better to much better than expected, I’ve seen him make a brilliant play off the wall and throw out a runner trying to stretch it in to a double. I’ve seen him throw out a runner at home (even if it was an awkward play)
– he throws to the right base/ man, his throws are fairly accurate and again with a ill more zip than one would expect (he did pitch an inning this year so it shouldn’t be totally startling)
– routes this is where things vary wildly- when a ball is hit to his depth or beyond, he seems to get a good read and take a good route, I’ve been impressed by his range going to left center particularly when balls are hit beyond his depth, a few times now he was in position for full on the run catches that I was surprised he got to, just to be called off by Gillies.
So far so good but this where is gets ugly
– he seems to have a hell of a time with reads on fly balls in front of him going into center right, he’ll do a cha cha cha dance on some of these fly balls
– I’ve seen him slip and fall at least twice on balls he should have gotten to, one of these slips was out right hideous as he was just trying to get moving
– he’s tentative, sometimes he is in position for a catch with a ill extra effort, maybe a dive. But seems content to let it drop as though to not take a risk.
I walk away some nights thinking this probably won’t work
I walk away some nights thing this will work
And that is all I can say about Darin Ruf in LF
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That’s a great report, and is consistent with everything we have heard.
It bolsters my impression that, IF he were to ever get a shot as a major league regular, he should get it at first base. It just seems his defensive deficiencies in LF are enough to outweigh the positional advantage of LF over 1B.
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Thanks!!
My take is that he does have some ability to be a below avg LF. Burrell comparison seems projectable but Ruf still has some work to do: little range, good arm, smart enough to know the situation. Makes sense that he would be tentative and not willing to dive for balls, as getting injured might derail his career completely.
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I was at the Reading game last night and I won’t attempt to make many remarks, here are a few light comments
– May was dominant (obviously). Besides the home run, they hit few if any balls hard.
– Asche knows what he’s doing at the plate. And my initial thought was that his reaction time on the diving play at 3rd seemed a little slow, thus making it a more difficult play. Could be very wrong though.
– Looked like a balk when Gillies got picked off. I asked the bullpen and Friend said it probably was.
– Kyle Simon looks like a young Tom Selleck. I ask Knigge if they were going to bring in Magnum, P.I and he didn’t respond or even smile. He either didn’t think it was funny or didn’t get the reference. He must not of got the reference because it was hilarious. Then I felt old.
– Friend looked aggressive. Doesn’t throw hard, but he plowed threw them.
– Jake Fox looks 12 and like his name should be Opey.
– I’m not sure if May’s character has ever been questioned on here or not, but he definitely got booed for not running out a ground ball at all (probably would’ve had an infield single). One of teh guys I was with got mad and the fans booed. However, he took the time to sign every single autograph that was asked of him after the game. I don’t know him from at all, so I will not comment on his character, but taking the time after 8 innings and the media to sign every autograph I think may speak volumes
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In the post game interview he says that, that is him running at full speed.
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funny, didn’t see it before. Didn’t bother me at all
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My slow pitch softball teammates used to get on me for not hustling when in fact, it was because I’m incredibly slow
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Can we please just have an Asche/Ruf site so we don’t have to scroll through the same arguments every day?
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Here is a video (two clips) of Darin Ruf playing LF I shot, one with a good result one with a bad result.
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Man’s not gonna earn many style points, that’s for sure.
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Let’s all talk about Justin DeFratus. Good night. 28 pitches in 3 innings, including 4 ks. Nice, right? After his near-season-long injury, where do you rank him as a “prospect” amongst the first and second year bullpen guys, i.e. Savery, Aumont, Schwimer, Stutes, Diekman, throw in Horst if you like? I know some of those guys have burned their prospect status, but go ahead and rank them in there also.
I say Aumont, DeF, Stutes, Diekman, Schwimer, Horst, Savery.
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Can’t argue, really. Maybe Horst over Schwimer. I think Bonilla has the chance to better than all of them.
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DeFratus, Aumont, Lindblom, Diekman, Schwimmer, Horst, Rosenberg, Stutes, Savery (thought I would use all of the young guys, Stutes the only non-rookie eligible going into the season)
Stutes was good but for relievers it is what have you done for me lately and then I want DeFratus and his control above the two guys with possibly better stuff who might not be able to find the strike zone. I think Horst is a real breakout player and can stick as a lefty in this pen while he is still cheap.
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Forgot about Rosenberg. I’ll say Lindblom ahead of Stutes, Rosenberg ahead of Schwimer. And hey, I’ll add in Bonilla, since he’s clearly not starting again, and JC, who was really easy to place. I think the last two of those guys are going to be released this off-season, personally. Just no room for that many young bullpen arms on the 40-man roster when likely only 3 or 4 will start the year in the bigs. Pap, Antonio, Lindblom, vet FA, swingman, (Rosenberg, perhaps), LOOGY, (Horst or Diekman or Valdes), +1 more spot. Fills up quick, that Opening Day Pen.
Aumont, DeF, Lindblom, Bonilla, Stutes, Diekman, Rosenberg, Schwimer, Horst, Savery JC Ramirez.
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I do not believe that either Savery or Ramirez will be released as the Phillies still hold a free outright on each of them. I do believe that Ramirez will be removed from the 40-man roster and the Phillies will ask outright waivers on him so they could use their free outright in order to retain him in their minor league system next year. By doing that they will have another year to evaluate him.
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Is that a certaintity that Lisal Bonilla will not be starting again. Jon Mayo, MLB.com seems to think otherwise:……….’Bonilla moved into the rotation at Class A Lakewood in June (2011) and showed a lot of potential as a starter. He has the chance to have three above-average pitches with his fastball, slider and changeup, and he generates a ton of groundouts. He’s a good athlete with a clean delivery. All he needs is time. He has all the tools to develop into a very intriguing starting pitcher in the future. He was placed on the disabled list on July 13, after undergoing surgery on his right thumb.’
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I’ve never seen anybody from the Phillies say anything about his situation. I’m curious what they see in his future and why they decided to handle him that way.
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True – I am assuming that he’s not going to switch to a starter because what the heck were they waiting for? Let’s have him work on his 3 pitch arsenal in half as many innings? Not logical. Could still happen.
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If it’s ‘what have you done for me lately’, wouldn’t no results be better than what we’ve gotten from some of these guys? Sarcastic of course but in all seriousness it’s ironic you say that and have DeF ranked as your top guy after missing most of the year.
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I think the only thing I’d change about your list is switching Diekman and Stutes. Some people may get on me about that, but there is just no denying how freaking unfair Diekman is against lefties, and it’s not like he’s easy on righties either. I would be afraid for my life as a lefty hitter against him and that would make it very difficult to hit the ball.
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Diekman’s Achilles Heal is his control, once he gets that squared away, he will be just fine.
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Same can be said for Aumont, but the potential is high enough that I can place them high on the depth chart even with control issues. Hopefully they both work it out. That would be a sick ‘pen with Paps, Aumont, Diekman, and JDF (among others).
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http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Charlie-Manuel-wants-to-see-Darin-Ruf-Will-it-happen-in-September.html
Interesting tidbits. We shall see. My favorite line “If a guy can hit,” Manuel said, “his defense gets a little bit better.”
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What does Manuel know? He needs to read this blog more. The armchair GMs have already decided the Ruff sucks. Clearly they are right and Charlie is wrong.
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1) I would hope Cholly is a little too busy managing the Phillies to properly scout Ruf (which is needed to know whether he’s good enough to play in the Bigs).
2) We’re talking about the man who kept Lidge as his closer while Madson was making everyone look stupid for the reason, and I quote, “he’s our guy.” While he certainly doesn’t know nothing, I’m not about to proclaim him a baseball genius, either.
Either way, most people on this site have acknowledged Ruf could contribute at the big league level in one capacity or another. How valuable he is will be determined by whether he can play LF adequately.
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Haven’t read a single poster claiming that Ruf sucks. Can you provide a link?
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Provided Aumont gets his control issues straightened out, I’ll go Aumont, DeFratus, Lindblom, Horst, Diekman, Stutes, Rosenberg, Savery and Schwimmer. I think that after his last dust up with the front office, Schwimmer has thrown his last pitch for the Phillies.
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That’s a LARGE proviso. Should that happen, Aumont would likely give the Phils reason to find a way to trade Paps. Does Aumont go to the AFL?
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The Phillies aren’t trading Papelbon. I’m sure they would love to but there’s not many MLB teams who can afford to pay a closer what he makes.
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Lets be a bit more accurate: There are no other MLB teams that WOULD pay a closer that much. Even the Yankees never gave Rivera that type of long-term deal and he’s the best closer in history.
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A big part of that is the market for relievers is at it’s peak now, not when Rivera was in his prime. I have to wonder if they wouldn’t pay him more if he were still in his prime today.
Granted I still think the Paps deal is ridiculous (even if I am glad to have him).
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I like having an elite closer too…I just dont like when we paid him more than double (total $$ committed) the next closer deal to a closer last winter.
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Agreed. I can’t decide which I like less; the Howard deal or the Papelbon deal. Probably Papelbon because it’s for a lot less money.
Not to say I dislike either player. Paps has consistently been one of the best relievers in baseball and Howard has prodigious power. I just wonder what RAJ was thinking…
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RAJ was being mentored by Gillick who gave basically the same deal to Lidge 4 years ago. Compared to Lidge’s deal Papelbon’s if fair. IMO
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Early in the game, but Franco doing some things. Has a hit and a walk, and started a 5-4-3 Triple play.
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Ethan Martin looks (well how should I say this) … Putrid is done after 3.2 in 5 hits 6 runs all earned 4 walks, 3k’s and 1 HR given up. Pitch count tells the story 78 pitches – 43 for strikes, seemed to be missing every thing low and then had to come up deeper in counts and got burned… Too many full counts
On the Ruf watch drive to deep center caught,
Tommy Joseph had a very nice double, other than that nothing to report Shreeve tool over
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Scratch that deep 2 run bomb to dead center up the burm by Tyson Gillies
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Nice Asche double to the wall in left, Ruf was more or less walked on purpose (might as well have been intentional)
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Martin showing his problem — lack of command. Like Colvin, Hyatt, he’ll have to practice a bit more on putting the ball where he wants. He has shown he can do it. He needs to do it more often.
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Asche keeps rolling, Gillies goes yard. Roman Quinn really impressing at williamsport – why not double jump him next year and start him off at clearwater.
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While I’m not saying he shouldn’t be, and I kinda hope he does double jump, a reason not to is because he doesn’t need to be rushed. They can give him some time to get adjusted to higher levels of pitching. If he double jumps and struggles, it could cause problems that he wouldn’t have had otherwise.
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Not if you want him to play shortstop. He needs all the reps he can get a his new position. The hit tool and speed will still be there. Otherewise he becomes another rapid center fielder. Ho-hum
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Completely agree. The guy is WHAT? 19 yrs old AND playing one of the essential defensive positions consistently for the first time. He needs games time to get his feet performing well under him and better accuracy with throwing. These all IMO he will conquer but it’ll take time. If you rush such a youngster, barriers to the learning process can easily arise and you get thereby a delay in his progress.
’13 at Lkwd. My bet is that he will further develop his overall game there and emerge from that season with more brilliance to his game.
We all look forward to his presence in a Phils uni, but don’t over-challenge him at his age and experience, IMO.
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Ruf does it again. It’s just absurd. Asche is 3-4 too
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Oh yeah darin # 37 2 run no doubt about bomb
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Have all opposing pitchers just admitted defeat by this point? Holy hell, I don’t think I’d ever pitch to him. Bases loaded, 2 outs, bottom of the ninth, tied game? Might as well walk him instead of giving up a grand slam…
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I wouldn’t say that. After a double by Asche tonight Ruf was basically pitched around on 4 straight pitches. Sun night homerun was actually an interesting one. On a 3-1 count Ruf made a very late decision to swing at a very bad pitch, I haven’t seen him swing at anything like it in a very long time. The next pitch he hit out of the park so….
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Yeah, I wasn’t being serious. But this past month has been unreal for Ruf.
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Amazing. 19 homers in a month.
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Anyone know what the Eastern League record is for that? I’d have to imagine he’s got it or is damn close.
Record as in “Most HRs in a month” etc.
Its kinda impossible to find stuff like that for the minors.
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fun facts… Darin Ruf has more HRs in August 2012 than April, May, June & July combined. Better known as the rest of the 2012 season. Also, more this month than in April, May, June, July, August & September 2011 combined. Better known as the entire 2011 season. Good for him.
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Tommy Joseph with a huge 2 run bomb
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But now the lead is 4, justin friend loses the record setting save op
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Hopefully Joseph can finish the year hot. So far he’s been less than impressive in Reading.
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There are only 4 other players in Eastern league with twenty or more Hrs. Second most is 24. Darin Ruf has lapped the field. If he was a big all or nothing swinger with .250 avg and 150 strikeouts I would still be impressed. But short swing, .300+ hitter, 400+ OB%, takes walks, hits to all fields, less than 100 Ks in 130+ games. Wow !
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Ruf is unreal. Just an great season and an epic ending.
Looking at the box scores is just some much fun.
I wish him the best but I thought Rizzotti could at least play in the majors for a bad team.
What do I know? Little.
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Joseph 3 hits including bomb… Coming on…hopefully he fills out the next several games with potentialized hitting/slugging.
Yes…Ruf IS a wonder! Sept should be his up time.
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..and all 3 Joseph’s hits were for extra bases: HR, 2-2bhs.
Go Joe/Tommy.
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Appears ArtD…you have been luv bitten by another future all-star. Move over Cody here comes Joe/Tommy.
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sorry if this is the wrong thread for this, but cloyd has been recalled and will pitch tonight for the phillies. hamels is sick with a stomach ailment.
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I am going to guess Rosenberg sent down for the two days till roster expansion. No problems with this move, he was #6 on the depth chart so he gets the call.
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