Box Score Recap 8-26-2012

Ok, so Cody Asche’s ISO in AA is .225.  That’s pretty remarkable.  See the list here for the qualified .220 and higher ISO MLB seasons over the last 10 years for third basemen:

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/ueXSd 

I’m not saying Asche will do this in the bigs – quite the opposite.  Look at how few 3B really show power of that kind in full seasons in the bigs.  Some of us, myself included, might want to temper our expectations a little as he advances. 

But man has he been mashing at AA.  I mean, good freakin’ gracious.

LV  REA  CLR cancelled LKW  WIL  DSL Off

287 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 8-26-2012

  1. My viewpoint is clear. He will be our 3rd baseman sooner than later. He is a hitting machine with some power for HRs and other extra base hits. He is of above average speed on the bases. He has more than enough arm for the position, If there is any doubt about his glove work I strongly believe that he will make that his #1 priority
    over the winter together with adding a few lbs of muscle. His model is Utley though Cody plays 3rd but I recall there was considerable discussion about whether Utley could play 2nd base when he was about to come up. Utley’s work ethic then made him one of the better 2nd basemen and Asche’s work ethic also has been said to be extraordinary.

    I’ve never been known to go overboard about any of our prospects but I do so now…because he is IMO going to be a star for the Phils for years to come.

    1. Art, again, I can appreciate the enthusiasm, but could you please bring something else to the table? I don’t mind hearing commentary about people’s favorite prospect(s). Especially when they have some insight that the box score can’t give us. But saying the same things every day gets very boring.

      Now I’m not even saying you should necessarily stop talking about Asche, how about looking at his faults though? Instead of being so optimistic about what he has shown, why not focus on what he hasn’t? It’s easy to say he COULD add muscle and hit a good amount of homeruns. I COULD be the next Babe Ruth. But he hasn’t yet, so why continue speculating? Or maybe that kind of outlook is just not in your personality, which is fine. Continue focusing on the positives, just talk about different things each day, or simply wait a couple days in between saying the same things as a sort of reminder. But reminders aren’t needed daily.

      So I’m asking you, please, just switch it up a little bit.

      Off-topic; Pettibone has had good results, but the walks are officially starting to worry me now.

      1. or Dan you could just skip over his posts…thats what i do…there is one guy on here who would drive me crazy(maybe more) then i realized i can just scroll by…i wish i would have scrolled by this but lesson learned

        1. As a general rule of thumb I don’t skip over posts because then I may miss some insight I wouldn’t get otherwise. My biggest reason for coming to this website is to learn things about prospects, or even baseball in general, that I couldn’t otherwise. The biggest part of that is the comments, because while a couple of people run the website itself, HUNDREDS of people can and do contribute in the comments and add things that could easily be missed. In this case it was especially hard to skip over it because his was the one and only (at the time) comment on the board.

          1. I’m perfectly calm. Nowhere in my comments have I been inflammatory or even rude. I asked if he could refrain from re-posting and suggested other things he could focus on.

      2. Dude, I think you’re asking Art to be more objective – which is great. But reread your post – it sounds like you’re asking him to be more negative. It kind of made me chuckle.

        1. I’m asking him to acknowledge the negative, not quite the same thing but I see how it could be taken that way. Being objective means you have to take the good and the bad, and I have yet to see Art acknowledge any fault of Asche, unless you count the fact that he has not YET added muscle.

        1. You’re entitled to your opinion, but I tend to think “pricks” don’t generally use words like “please.”

          1. I tend to agree. Ever since James left, this board has become filled with a bunch of homers like what you find on philly.com. Instead of finding real conversations backed up by hard facts, we have these outlandish claims like “so and so has plus power or a plus hit tool based on the one game I saw. Therefore he needs to be in the majors ASAP.” Gone are the days of objectivity.

            1. Also people get tired of listing 18 different sabermetric categories for every prospect. There needs to be a middle ground. People did know how to judge talent before Billy Beane came along.

            2. I’m not entirely sure what this is a response to, but I tend to agree with you. Sabr stats are welcome, as are first-hand scouting reports, and even just general opinions. I welcomed Art’s comments on Asche the first time (even the first couple times) because it brought something to the conversation. The reason for my above post, though, is because it’s getting a bit overboard. I had this same issue in the offseason with the Tyler Greene debate. People were adamant that he should be a top 10 prospect in our system because of his very small sample of PAs last year. Many people, including myself, advocated people to wait for him to get more time in before crowning him a blue chipper. He has, thus far, proven the latter approach to be correct. Now either Greene or Asche (or even both) could turn out to be hall of famers, and that would be superb. But we don’t really have evidence to suggest that at the moment. We have evidence to suggest Asche could be an average starter, and so far Greene has proven nothing.

              And I know being excited about prospects is the fun of it, I have that experience too. I, for one, am extremely excited about Tocci. But that excitement is tempered by realism. There’s a lot that can happen between now and when Tocci could feasibly play in the majors. It’s fun to dream on prospects like that, but there also needs to be a balance of dreaming and objective observation. That’s all I’m really asking for, a little balance. Or if that can’t be accomplished, just a little break from the one-sided conversations. If everyone here wants to believe that Asche will be a star (I know not everyone does), that’s fine. But does it need to be stated every day? Anyways, I’ll stop commenting in this thread about Asche now because it’s gone far enough and I’ve said enough. I’m sure there are plenty of people who think poorly of me for what I’ve said, but I at least hope some of you see my point of view on this.

            3. You know how people judged talent “before Billy Beane came along?” They relied proportionately more upon scouting reports – you know, the reports that the non-statistically sophisticated around here reject out of hand, because, after all, what do those scouting professionals know?

              Beyond that, the irony is that I rarely even mention advanced metrics in evaluation prospects. K% (to just take one example) is just K/AB. I’m sure even in Ty Cobb’s day talent evaluators wanted to know how often a player strikes out – and considered it valuable information.

              Feel free to reject both the scouting reports and any even marginally sophisticated statistical analysis. Just don’t be expect your prospect projections to be taken very seriously if you do so.

            4. That stuff has happened all along, since I started following the site 5 years ago (or so).

        2. Let’s all refrain from personal attacks, please.

          Dan, Art is entitled to his opinion, same as anyone else, and in his case, maybe more so. He’s been posting on this site longer than 99.9% of us – since the begining. While this particular post may not be of any value to you, I can assure you that he has contributed other less homerish posts that may be more to your liking. I know you didn’t mean to start a flame war, but giving someone instructions on how/what to post is bound to do just that.

    2. Are you saying he will improve his glove by adding muscle?
      The switch to move Asche before Ruf in the order has brought extraordinary results for both of them.

      1. He is already a PLUS fielder at 3B (Based no Scouting Reports of folks who have SEEN him play as well asthe games I’ve played.)

        1. Even if he does not become a star for the Phillies, players that can perform adequately at league minimum have serious value to this team right now.

          1. I have been saying the same thing about Ruf. I think at worst Ruf can hit better than Mayberry. Kind of play a Ricky Jordan type roll.

        2. I’ve been reading the reports pretty carefully, and, from what I’ve seen, reports from people who have seen him play are mixed. The fielding vote was considered kind of surprising by almost everyone. The consensus, as far as I can tell, seems to be that, compared to major league thrid basemen, not AA third basemen, most of whom will never sniff the majors, he is a little rough, with the potential to be average. Other than you, I don’t think ANYONE that I know have (who has seen him play) regards him as a plus fielder (nor does the AA vote imply necessarily that he is perceived asa plus fielder, without knowing the competition or even what the vote was – i.e., he could have won with a plurality of a split vote. Awards voting can be very dodgey).

    3. ArtD…what do you think…Eric Chavez, Graig Nettles, Wade Boggs…what’s Asche’s ceiling?

      1. You have been fined 10 credits for violating the PhutuePhillies code of comparing a prospect to a Hall of Famer (even obliquely like that is a no-no).

          1. I find it humorous that we’ve spent years on this chat board listening to people sing the praises of Mathieson and Rizzotti, among others, and now someone is praising a legit prospect he’s getting criticized for it? ArtD, keep on rolling buddy, your optimism and enthusiasm is refreshing in this land of negativity.

  2. Did anyone get to the Reading game yesterday? What the heck happened in the 3rd inning? with the R-Phils down 6 – 0 and Erie pummeling Colvin, Colvin gives up a BB and a double to start the inning. Looks like another short outing for Brody when a grounder to first holds the runner. Then, play I’m talking about, there’s a single to Ruf but he throws to Fox, who’s catching, then there’s a rundown (I guess?). Runner is out. the next guy up pops up and Brody has new life. My question is did the runner on 3rd space out? Was it one of those trapped balls that the runner gets hung out to dry?

    I’m just trying to divert everyone’s attention from the Asche storm i saw coming.

    1. Can’t we just celebrate that Ruf had an outfield assist without the facts and reality getting in the way?

    2. I was at the game sitting on the 3rd base side so I got a very good look at the play. First, Ruf should have caught the ball but he misjudged it as he did with several hard hit balls last night. He ran up and it short-hopped into his glove. The runner on third stayed a step away from the bag in the event that Ruf caught the ball so he could tag up and score if need be. The runner on second went halfway, IMO because with Ruf charging the ball he wanted to be ready to score if he let the ball get by him. Ruf fired the ball to the plate, don’t know why, and the catcher noticed the runner on 2nd was halfway to third base. Catcher throws to second and they dance with the runner for a moment while the runner on third took off for home, at which point they cut him down at the plate.

      I am rooting for Darin Ruf but he looked atrocious in the field last night, on that play and even on some he made. In fairness, the 6 p.m. start didn’t help anyone as it was a difficult sky for both teams’ outfielders to pick the ball up from. Ruf’s double should have been a fly out but the CF lost the ball. The assist and the home run are great but he has to shape up a bit out there, hopefully Venezuela can help him out.

      1. A big factor for Ruf, IMO, is to hire a personal trainer this off season and work on his weight and his core, while maintaining ir increasing his strength. He needs to become significantly more athletic if he wants to play LF. Most pro players can learn that position if they are reasonably well coordinated and put in the time. But you have a better chance if you chisel your body, increase your agility, and maximize your natural speed.

    3. Trapped ball, runner ag third held, runner at second broke, two guys at 3B, fox threw to second, back to fox after the runner at 3rd broke for the put-out.

  3. Good thing Brody Colvin doesn’t pitch everyday. I’d get in trouble for talking about him being not good, everyday. Walking guys, hitting guys, very few Strikeouts, giving up HRs. Pretty much covered everything.

    1. Yeah, another brutal outing for Colvin. He appears to be completely lost, and the promotion to AA looks to have completely backfired.

        1. I never understood how he got to AA in the first place. He is still young and has potential, but it seems they moved him up levels where he really didn’t prove himself. ??

    2. Colvin seems to have lost his FB velocity as well as his control. In his first disaster of an inning, the FB topped out at 89 and was basically 86-88. He did have a 90 and a 91 later in the game, but 86-87 FB were fairly common for him.

      1. I noticed his velocity was off this past Tuesday in Harrisburg. I was expecting mid 90s, but your velocity report jives with what I saw. I wonder if he’s dialed it back trying to hit spots or what. At this point, he almost needs to start completely over at Lakewood

    1. marfis had a good phrase in reference to the usage of ISO the other day…I think he said ‘mumbo-jumbo’ or something like that.

      1. SLG is a weird number in that its supposed to be a reference of power. But a guy who hits singles all the time builds up his SLG. ISO takes them out so you can see how much of a person’s slugging is based on XBH. With anything, it’s not perfect, but it gives a pretty good comparison stat versus the league, versus prior years, etc., if you want to consider XB power and not just total bases, singles included.

        1. This. I think ISO is a very strong statistic. Not that it’s a strong method of assessing value. But it seeks to measure a specific skill (power), and it does a very good job of it.

          Example: Anthony Hewitt. .373 slugging percentage. Not very impressive. But when you’re looking at prospects, you often want to identify specific skills within his resume. So you see his .148 ISO and note that while he’ll swing at the rosin bag, he still possesses decent power.

      2. ISO goes back to Branch Rickey, who created it for the specific per pose of isolating power from average. It’s a good stat if you know the norms for leagues and positions.

    2. Its one of those weaker (IMO) metrics created by adding, or in this case subtracting traditional baseball stats. It simply means that most of his hits are XBH. See John Mayberry.

    3. ISO=(2B + 3Bx2 + HRx3)/ABs
      or add your doubles to your triples(times 2), add in your homers times 3. Divide this whole mess by your at bats. Very good would be greater than .250

  4. So basically what you’re saying about 3B iso’s is that approximately 4.5 players every year get an ISO over .220 at 3B, or to be more descriptive, the top 14% of starting 3B every year. Now, as to how Asche stacks up to that, yeah he’s unlikely to put up a career .225 ISO at the major league level, but at the same time what he’s doing at AA makes him a top prospect for the phillies, and if he continues to do it come the AFL/next year, he’ll be a top 20 prospect in baseball IMO.

    1. I feel perfectly rational saying he could project to a slash line of .285/.360/.480 three years down the road for the phillies… he could also flame out, but a player with that kind of potential, as near to the show as he is, is certainly worth of the hype Asche is getting.

      1. I agree with you on Asche’s ‘projected’ slash line and I would go as far to say his HRs could range in the 15/20 neighborhood, with gap doubles-power at 25/30.

        1. That would give him , if one takes supra’s BA of .285 as a given, a slugging percentage of about .418 (between .405 and .438 – I’m assuming 600 AB), which IMO is still somewhat optimistic. In fact, it makes me realize that my own projection of a slugging percentage of around .435 was probably wildly optimisitc.

          That’s the weird context here – even I, pessimistic compared to the people on this board, am making projections that even Asche’s own family would probably think are overly optimistic. 🙂

      2. You too supra? I was going to let this go, it’s obvious Art is a man obsessed, but really, this is just too much.

        Now, I respect the fact that at least you aren’t as seduced by the unsustainable batting average as some people around here; .285 is achievable, if a little higher than I would project. But the rest … look, anything is possible I guess. But I’d probably put the chance of Asche meeting your other projections at well under 5%. The power could come, yes, but “could” is not the same as “likely to.” in order to have that slugging % with that batting average, you’re talking a guy who is going to have to hit about 30 doubles and 30 HR. The doubles are possible, the HR … less so. The obp is even going to be tougher to acheive; basically, you’re looking at a BB% of about 10% for a guy whose minor league BB% is abiut 7%. Again, it could happen – but projecting that?

        A more realistic projection in the .280/.330/.435 range still would make him, assuming average fielding, an above average major league third baseman. Why not see if he can meet that achieveable goal before we project him as the next Scott Rolen (roughly what you are projecting, except for Rolen’s defense, AND maybe more the point, the fact that Rolen acheived that mostly in a much higher offensive context).

        1. 30/30 probably isn’t going to happen, but I’m still going with 30 doubles and 25 Hr’s as being achievable (though 21-22 is more likely given what we’ve seen so far). So here… this is what I get:

          600 AB’s 170 Hits = .283 Ave.
          30 Doubles + 3 Triples +25 HR’s = .468 Slug
          7.5% walk rate = .333 OBP

          So yes, I was overly optimistic on the OBP (you are right on with your point here), and SLG (less so).

          As I’ve said before, I think i’m dying to see the phillies with a “LEGIT” blue chip prospect so I may grasp at straws at times. That said, him with a boarderline 800 OPS at the hot corner is something to get excited about.

          Given the above, a big year next year at LHV (with an ISO over 220) and I might revise his power up more. The thing is, this is still a relvaively small sample size, though his secondary stats seem to justify the output, it’s still early. Him excel in the AFL and at LHV next year really validates everything we’ve seen so far.

          1. It’s Reading, too (regarding the HR). And I’d add a caveat, which you obviously regognize based upon your reasonable BA projection, but the batting average performance, which seems to be a large part of what is exciting some people, is not supported by his secondary stats.

            1. He is doing equally well from a power perspective on the road as he is at home. ISO of .231 at home, .218 on road. His AVG is 30 points lower on the road.

        2. This sounds like a reasonable projection and someone, as Phils fans, should all look forward to having (if realized) for several years under a controllable budget.

        3. I’d take that line from a Philly 3B in a heartbeat! I doubt he’ll play to that level, but I’ll leave the window open to the chance that he could. Especially if we’re just talking peak seasons.

    2. I’m lazy but my curiosity would take me down the road of “what did those MLB 3B do in AA ball and how old were they at the time?” This would allow me to get a good handle on how Asche stacks up.

      Also, my love for Cody Asche is beginning to cross over the platonic line into something more.

      1. Good question nepp with a very revealing answer. Let’s look at the best hitting major league third basemen this year:

        Cabrera – had a much better half season in AA (ops 1.038) as a 20 year old, then went on to the majors that same year with a solid .793 ops.

        Wright: at 21 years of age he put in a half season in at AA, was much better (OPS 1.086) than Asche was this year, and of course played the other half of that season in the majors with an OPS of .857.

        Ramirez – Rocketed through the minors, skipped AA, major league debut as a 20 year old. Was back in AAA as a 21 year old, was better than Asche was in AA (.971 ops) and sustained it over a full season.

        Beltre – had almost 2000 major league PA under his belt by the end of his age 22 season. His half season in AA as a 19 year old was much better than Asche’s (OPS .992).

        Freese – finally a comp that Asche fans can take some heart in, though he skipped AA. He opsed .910 as a 25 year old in AAA.

        Chase Headley – an interesting comp, especially since this year (his best year) his numbers are about what supra is projecting for Asche. He had a much better year than Asche in AA (1.016 ops, and he sustained it over a full season), though he was a year older.

        Rodriquez – do I even need to go there?

        Zimmerman – 2nd in ROY voting as a 21 year old; even better in the majors as a 22 year old. As a 20 year old, his half season in AA produced “only” an OPS of .898.

        Freese aside – and, yes, Freese is the one guy that gives us some hope that Asche might, if everything breaks right for Asche, be more than just an average regular third basemen – these guys are worlds apart from Asche. THAT’S what a star prospect usually looks like.

        1. The thing is most of those guys are all stars. I think that if Asche is a cost controlled solid if not star player at 3rd that is a very valuable piece. Even if he isn’t destined to be a perennial all star that doesn’t mean he isn’t a very good prospect.

          1. Exactly, if he can be cheaper Polanco (less glove, more power) I would be thrilled. He doesn’t need to be a star. Just a nice solid cheap player. If you can get what Polanco gave when healthy at league minimums as opposed to upwards of 5 million, then that is a good starting point.

            Even someone like Frandsen next year. I don’t expect him to keep doing what he has done this year but somone needs to hit 8th and it isn’t going to be Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins or Brown…so either the 3B or one of the other two outfielders are going to hit 8th. Frandsen is a cheap option that will allow them to spend big on the other two outfield positions.

        2. Scott Rolen at age 21 (AA,AAA) fourth year in minors, 11 hr in 398 at bats and .324/.416/.515. Rolen was a doubles machine with 38.

        3. I know you can’t just throw out the period in AA when Asche was adjusting, but I think there might be something to giving a little more weight to his July/August than his June.

          His first 60 AA at-bats were abysmal. His last 175 would put him up in Miguel Cabrera territory (just talking about the numbers, obviously Cabrera was younger and something of a prodigy). I really think it’s too early to say what we have in Asche at this point. I’m enjoying the ride, but I think there’s a wide range of outcomes for his future. Let’s see where we’re at next year after a month or two.

        4. LarryM, take away Asche’s “adjustment period” in AA after he jumped from highA this year and what does his OPS look like then? His OPS is trending upward, not plateauing.

          A frustration I have is when a player’s whole season is looked at without really putting things into context. An example for me is Dom Brown in MLB last year. Some detractors like to point at his whole seasons line to say he “failed” last year. In reality, not only has it been pointed out that his line was respectable as a rookie (I believe you, among others have made this point), but when one considers his last month in the majors he was pretty good, WITH NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN (i.e. “trending upward”), well…it makes you wonder if Pence was necessary.

          Brown showed signs he had adjusted. Asche is doing so now. His pretty good OPS is being “dragged down” by an adjustment period that for him happened part way through the season; he wasn’t given the chance to have the whole season to showcase what he could do. However, SSS notwithstanding, compare how he has been since he “figured it out”, IN THE CONTEXT of what we’ve seen and know so far-similar performance after being dbl jumped to HighA , observations on his work ethic and composure-to some of those other 3bmen you mentioned above, and might there be a little more to be excited about?

          1. Before getting into the substance of your post, let me remind you that I’m making an extraordinarily positive projection of his potential. The disagreement here is between myself and some others, who are very optimistic about Asche, and a few people on the board who have concocted out of almost nothing the expectation that Asche will be a star. So it’s not like the optimistic but rational among us don’t realize that the Reading stats don’t contain an adjustment period (parenthetically, while i don’t have access to splits for the players I did some comps with above, one would assume most likely an”adjustment” period for them as well.)

            But you can’t just ignore the “adjustment period” entirely. And even if you do, the sample size gets even smaller. And I mostly don’t buy the “trending upward” argument. (You’re right about Brown last year, but for other reasons).

            That said, there are multiple things going on here. One is his batting average. Even if you want to throw out his “adjustment period,” he doesn’t profile as a .300 hitter. I won’t rehash that, except to say that my confidence level on this point is quite high, and nothing about his recent performance changes it.

            Another is that, considering the entirety of the evidence – including scouting reports, Clearwater, his basic body type, the power friendly ball park in Reading – he doesn’t profile as a guy with a lot of power. A few weeks in August don’t change that much. I say “much” because it is of course evidence – evidence which has caused the reasonable among us to revise our power projections upward, but not to ridiculous extremes. Another are BBs; not that he is horrible at drawing them, but here too he doesn’t profile as a “star.” Opinions about his fielding are mixed.

            It’s just not the kind of profile that projects that he’ll become a star. Could it happen? Sure. But to protect stardom on the evidence available is premature to say the least.

            1. Considering that only about 25 players a year the last three in the Majors hit .300 or over that is A BOLD STATEMENT that he wont be in the top 5% of major league hitters…

        5. RE: “Wright: at 21 years of age he put in a half season in at AA, was much better (OPS 1.086) than Asche was this year, and of course played the other half of that season in the majors with an OPS of .857.”

          Instead of just pre-filtering and pre-selecting stats that support your theory that Asche is a rather mediocre to middling prospect, try presenting the complete profile for the prospects you name in order to give a complete picture. Just sayin’

          And scouting reports for minor leaugers tend to be conservative by definition. Show me the scouting report that projected Ryan Howard to avg 50 hrs a year his first four full seasons or that Chase Utley would be a .300 30hr guy at his peak years.

          The point is that most of us know the way to the majors is ripe with pitfalls and that you shouldn’t over-interpret random enthusiasm on a message board. You can make your points without being oppresive.

    3. Look, I LOVE Cody Asche, but I don’t think he’s likely ever to be a preseason top 20 player and certainly won’t be ranked that high entering next year. He will probably be just outside the top 100 in most lists – at least that’s what I expect. Those lists are based, in large measure, on a player’s perceived overall tools and, to a lesser extent, the player’s actual performance. Asche’s tools are perceived as being above average across the board (with the possible exception of his “hit” tool, which borders on being a plus), at best, and mixed, at worst. As a result, don’t expect to find him in those hot prospect lists until he puts up numbers at AAA that simply cannot be ignored.

      1. Exactly, they look at upside over everything else and to be Top 20, you have to have all-star level upside. Asche doesnt have that.

        1. I agree, even with my optimistic .800 OPS projection, he still wouldn’t be an all-star… that said, he’d be in the “second tier” of players, and that to me given his age, proximity to the majors, and the phillies needs, makes him probably the most internally valuable position player in the minors.

  5. What’s going on with Brian Pointer this season? Striking out 34% of plate appearances, disappointing I was really high on him coming into this season.

  6. Look at my user name, you guys know I have to love Asche. That being said, let’s temper the enthusiasm a tad. He is clearly benfitting by hitting in front of Ruf, pitchers are giving him a steady diet of fastballs because they don’t want to walk him and risk pitching to Babe Ruf with runners on base.

    If he handles his business in the first 200 or so AAA at bats and puts up similar numbers to what he’s doing now, then I’d be inclined to give him a Chase Utley ceiling. For now, I’m going to stay cautiously optimistic.

      1. Yeah, but the people who understand that ALSO understand that Asche, while a fine prospect, is likely not a future star for other reasons. 🙂

        1. I think the “likely” part can be applied to prospecting as a whole, but Asche is more of an unknown at this stage. He’s had a terrific season, but it’s still only one year, and following up an exceptionally bad rookie year. Of course anyone could point to the successful adjustments to his swing. He’s hitting .320, and it’s easy to define the cure after you’ve been cured. This doesn’t mean it will how against major league pitching.

          He’s had a great year and I’m extremely hopeful, and we can’t dismiss that he can return next year as an even better player. He’ll actually need to in order to meet some of the lofty expectations. We’ll know a hell of a lot more of what to expect from Asche by this time next season but in the meantime I find him to be a difficult player to project.

          1. I think there’s a lot of truth in that – IMO all the more reason to err on the side of being conservative.

            Look, he’s been a great prospect to follow this year, and legitimately has gone from a guy that most of us dismissed to being a guy who has a good shot of being a mjor league regular by 2014. That’s huge; why burden him with excessive expectations beyond that?

            1. Burden him?? I seriously doubt Cody Asche gets on internet everyday to log on this site to see what peoples expectations are of him. Now thats funny.

              “I better get some extra base hits today or the guys on PP.com are gonna be upset with me….”

    1. Harrisburg Husker….here all this time I thought as a farmer you liked corn…so you are a Cornhusker! In Nittany Lion country no less!

  7. Why is LHV starting Hollands? Why was he moved fom, Clrwtr? I mean he s@@cked** at Reading, got demoted to CLWTR, & now starting at LHV? Is it just to put a warm body there in the LHV rotation? Heck of time to use him, when a win was so deserpately needed to mainitain playoff contention.

    8*s@@cked is a sabermetric term; meaning my great aunt could get a hit off him – and shes been dead since 1989)

  8. I went to the Lehigh game yesterday, and was planning on writing up a report, but really there wasn’t much going on. Valle didn’t play, and most of the other players are fringey prospects or organizational guys. Mitchell had a lot of balls hit to him in center field, but really didn’t look very comfortable with the routes he was running. Cesar Hernandez seems to have pretty decent range at second, although he booted one of the two balls hit to him. He did bounce a single up the middle, but didn’t do much else at the plate

    Pitching-wise, Pettibone looked decent. To me it looked like he was throwing fastball, curve and a change – he was touching 94 on the gun I believed. He wasn’t helped by the umprire (there were very few called strikes when the Pigs were pitching), but had what I would term a “Kendrick” type of game – meaning he was pitching okay but not mowing people down. He was pulled after 5 innings and the bullpen looked pretty disastrous. Savery didn’t give up any runs, but was really wild. Ramirez looked like he had decent stuff (96 on the fastball, and a nice hard mid-80s curve) but was very hittable. He wasn’t helped when Spidale made a poor diving effort on that led to a triple. Diekman has a very funky delivery (“looks like he’s throwing frisbees there, LA”) and looked like he was throwing harder than he was – the gun only ever registered 89. He made a lefthanded batter look pretty foolish on one of his Ks, but also gave up some pretty hard hit balls and a couple of runs.

    It’s a gorgeous ballpark though, with really good concessions and some quality draft beer in the biergarten, so I can give a positive report on that.

    – Jeff

    1. The Lehigh gun is very slow and, for some reason, does not capture Diekman’s velocity correctly (perhaps because of his funky rlease point). Diekman was 89-92 at LhV at the beginning of the year, was promoted to Philly, where he was always 93-97, and now he’s at 89 again. Believe me, he throws much harder than 89.

  9. yes- i looks like a my comment went on the wrong daTE s/been on 8/25 not 8/26.. sorry folks…

    my 5 hr energy hasnt kicked in yet…

  10. I missed the weekend topic but looking at Andrew Pullin’s first year vs David Wright’s first and it’s pretty compareable. A lot to be excited about the GCL class. Probably have 4-5 players from that team represented in the GCL top 20 list: Tocci, Pullin, Cozens, Green, and Vargas (maybe). Watson didn’t pitch enough to warrant a ranking.

    Last year there was only one (Ethan Stewart).

    1. Regarding the Pullin/Wright comp – sometimes I think you guys are just baiting me. 🙂 But yes, Pullin looks great, certainly one of a number of our short season players who COULD be something special.

        1. Oh come on guys, anyone who spends serious time on PP takes their fandom pretty damn seriously. These prospects we follow are so far from the phillies for the most part that if we werent serious fans, we wouldn’t bother. LarryM may rain on the parade by providing the contrarian view but I for one appreciate it. It’s a gut check when I get too excited. In the above example he was being sarcastic, and your response was completely useless. The point is, comparing the two at this point in their careers tells us that there “could” be something there, but the flame out rate for even the best prospects so far from the show is huge.

          1. I wasn’t saying Pullin is the next Wright. My point was to put his season in perspective and highlight how successful it was. I think there’s a clear difference in that vs saying he’s the next D. Wright. But as soon as comp is thrown out a bat signal comes out of his computer.

            Larry is a little too opinionated around here for my taste. I certaintly wasn’t trying to bait him since I usually gloss over his diatribes.

            1. To be fair to Larry, most people use comps as an attempt to predict future performance. Generally speaking, a comp isn’t necessary to simply point out a good season by a player, usually the stats do that for themselves.

  11. I have no idea if Asche can play MLB, but after watching players like Rollins and Howard
    fail to fully develop as professional hitters [Howard has regressed in my view] and hearing that Asche
    changed his swing in response to poor 2011 season [coachable?], seemed to adjust at AA after dreadful
    1st 50-100 AB [ mental toughness?] and hear of his work ethic, he is, to me, an intriguing prospect.
    It will be interesting to see him at LV in 2013

      1. Let’s set Howard aside for a moment – one can make a case for him, though it’s complicated by other factors (for one thing, his development as a hitter in his first couple of major league seasons was astoundingly good given his minoe league performance).

        But the Rollins criticism is just silly. He demonstrated sustained improvement as a player almost across the board, somewhat masked by the league wide decline in offense. That he never quite reached the level that some people hoped for is more a commentary on their unrealistic expectations than anything else. Just another irrational Rollins hater.

        1. I would also argue that the chance that Asche produces even half the career value that Rollins has is well below 50%. Rollins falls just short of a legitimate HOF candidate, and really the criticism he gets from Philadelphia fans is disgraceful.

        2. I would add that the above is not a knock on Asche – if he produces half the career value that Rollin’s has produced, he would still be one of the better third basemen in Phillies franchis history.

        3. I think that before Rollins debuted, everyone would be thrilled with the type of career he’s had. It’s just frustrating that he’s raised the bar high, then attempted to hit pop-ups over it

          1. Okay .. this is rough & incomplete, and relies more than I would like upon advanced metrics, but:

            First 3 years: 88% as good as an average major league hitter, below average fielding at SS, 2.5 WAR per year
            Next 5 years: 111% as good as an average major league hitter, gold glove defense, 5.4 WAR per year
            Last 4 years: 95% as good as an average major league hitter, gold glove defense, 3.2 WAR per year (even with missed games for injuries and a month plus to go this year)

            That is a typical career progression. As for the pop-ups, before this season he had a normal number of in field pop-ups. It simply has not, over the course of his career, been an issue.

            1. LArryM……re: Jim Rollins. There is one criticism that one fails to acknowledge…he seems to lapse into that lackadaisical spell lately, and it has occurred rather yearly these last 3/4 years, and the manager has to sit down with him and explain how it affects the team. Like Charlie said on Sunday all he asks is a player ‘to show up on time and to hustle’. And with this, the criticism of JRoll becomes more intense from the genral public. Irrespective of his on the field production, his attitude has seem to have had changed whenever he decides to ‘take it easy down to first on the infield grounder’

            2. I acknowledge that that is the public perception. You don’t want to get me into a discussion of the validity of that perception and why the public feels that way.

            3. Okay, I can’t resist saying a couple of things, because this is a pet peeve of mine. I’ll try to be nicer than I feel.

              On the whole, I don’t buy the entire premise. You’re making assumptions about Manuel and Rollins that don’t match up with what has been reported, and, from what I know about Manuel, don’t match up with reality. The stuff about “how it affects the team” is almost certainly entirely in the minds of you and other so called “fans.”

              The particular AB you spoke about was in some ways almost the opposite of your narrative; he was upset during that AB, but upset in a way that reflected a highly competitive nature, not the opposite. As a result of that frustration, he made the mistake of misjudging how close the play at first would be, and thus didn’t go all out to first. That WAS a mistake, and one that Manuel understandably felt he had to discuss with Rollins (though even there, none of us knows the precise nature of the discussion between the men).

              But the notion that there is a bigger problem, that “lackadaisical” play is a disgusting fabrication. That he doesn’t run full speed to first base on routine grounders is a POINT IN HIS FAVOR. Players that do so are grandstanding fools.

              Is Rollins a hard worker? Of course he is, and the whole course of his career proves by any doubt. The work needed to maintain a major league career for 12 years is incredible to begin with; to mange sustained, across the board improvement during most of that career absolutely proves that he is an incredibly dedicated baseball player. On top of that, anyone who watches him knows that he hustles like crazy when it counts, as over used and as tired as that term is.

              Now, let me make one more thing clear: the fact that I sometimes, on this forums, get overly miffed about SOME things shouldn’t obscure the fact that there are some OTHER issues that I feel REALLY strongly about. You want to exaggerate a prospect’s potential based upon ignoring the scouting reports and an unsophisticated understanding of statistics? Knock yourself out, at the end of the day it doesn’t matter. But the treatment Rollins has gotten in this town is disgraceful, and the people doing it should be ashamed of themselves.

            4. ‘That he doesn’t run full speed to first base on routine grounders is a POINT IN HIS FAVOR. Players that do so are grandstanding fools.’…..please! Do you realize what you just wrote! So I can assume then, by your premise, that the likes of Chase Utley and Pete Rose are actual ‘grandstanding fools’……….. Further, ‘You’re making assumptions about Manuel and Rollins that don’t match up with what has been reported, and, from what I know about Manuel, don’t match up with reality. The stuff about “how it affects the team” is almost certainly entirely in the minds of you and other so called “fans.”…Charlie must have ‘misspoked’ on the pre-game show with Chris Wheeler the other day. I do not care to carry on thsi conversation anymore. Dismissed.

            5. Yes let’s take Chase Utley for example. Imagine how much less wear and tear his knees would have and more games he would have been able to play if he didn’t insist on running as hard as he can everytime especially when he had no chance of being safe. Was the 1 out of 100 times he might have been safe from that worth seeing Utley miss all that time due to knee and hip stuff? I love Utley for his hustle but it has been a curse to his career.

            6. Despite what I said below, I’m going to refrain from going off on this … but at least let’s do this …

              (1) Why would you care – why does it possibly matter – whether a player runs out a routine grounder? The only time it could even possibly make a difference is when the player misjudges how routine it is – which is why, despite the massively over the top criticism of the recent Rollins AB, in that one instance, he should have gone all out. But a truly routine play – the fastest player in the league won’t be safe. But, you ask, what if there is a fielding mistake? When that happens, as a rule the runner is going to be safe regardless – I mean, players, including Rollins, still run, just not all out, the fielder still needs to make the play.

              (2) What other evidence is there of this supposed lackadaisical play on Rollins part? Defensively? Hardly – his defense has held up better than many players his age. He is often criticized for his approach at the plate – which is … well, not entirely fair, really, but that’s a different topic. But even if we assume for a minute that Rollins’s approach is problematic, people act like this is some kind of choice on his part, that it’s some evidence of his bad character. Which is absurd – Rollins has an approach which has worked for him for 12 years – he has tweaked it, his BB rate has gone up through his career – to expect him to be able to just change on a dime to a completely different player, is absurd. To act like his failure to do so is some kind of character flaw is incredibly ignorant. And don’t get me started on the absurd pop-up issue.

              Look, this site has obviously gotten a large influx of ignorant radio call in fans from northeast Philadelphia. They’re welcome, even if they are sometimes – um, less than knowledgeable about aspects of the game, But the “fans” who want to trash Rollins – they need to get the heII off of the site. We don’t need you, we don’t want you, go back to calling in your borderline racist opinions to WIP, where you will find many sympathetic listeners. Don’t pollute this web site with your vile libel.

        4. You have to be kidding me about Rollins. Rollins deserves every bit of criticism here receives. He has digressed over the last four to five years at a time when he could have developed into an excellent hitter. He has ZERO discipline at the plate. He swings at bad pitches routinely, tries to hit everything out of the park and is an incredibly selfish player. How may times has he attempted to bunt to get on base this year, or any year for that matter. With Rollins, it is all about Rollins. He is not a team player. Ever since he MVP Season is 07, he has steadily declined with his production, at a time when his experience and skills should have worked in his favor. Instead, his hitting has gotten worse each year. All of that said, he remains one of the top fielding ss of this generation. That said, you can have him!!! As maybe you can tell, I can’t stand Rollins. He is the poster boy for what is wrong with todays egotistical athletes who play for themselvess, and not their team.

          1. Hey you racist piece of crap, please stop posting here. Go back to calling in to WIP you piece of shlt.

            Please dies painfully in a fire.

            1. Where do you come off for a milisecond calling me a racist?? Why do you insist on attacking people who hold a different opinion that you do? You come off as some an “expert” on everything and anything, when in fact, you show your level, or should I say lack of, intelligence by make such stupid remarks as calling me a racist. How dare you! While I am at it, you also chose to call me a “piece of #%&#” and sugges that I go back to calling WIP. I have never called WIP in my life, I am not a racist, and you obviously do not like people who disagree with your opinions. Despite your thinking, I AM ENTITLED to my opinion, and you DO NOT have to agree with it. However, you attacking me for having my opinion simply shows your complete lack of maturity and intelligence. I stand by my opinion on Rollins, red, white, purple, yellow, black, or brown, I don’t like the his approach at the plate. The last few years, when he should have been hitting .290 to .325, he has digressess due to what I believe is his selfish approach to hitting. That said, he is a spectacular fielder, second to none at SS. All that said, I still don’t like him!!

            2. I failed to read your last comment until just now … “please die painfully in a fire”?? You truly need to get a liife LarryM. What did I say to offend YOU to the extent that you could make a comment such as that. You call me a “racist piece of crap” and then in the same breath you ask that I “die painfully in a fire”. If I am a racist for mentioned not ONE WORD about the color of anyone’s skin, what does that make you? You are a descipicable excuse for a human being, one that definitely needs to get a life that extends beyond writing about 50 posts a night because you have nothing else to do in your sorry excuse for a LIFE!!

    1. Anonymous- right on!

      I really do not think we need to trade more prospects or lose a draft choice to sign a high visibility 3rd baseman… If this Asche continues to improve at LHV next year, why not save our money and draft choices, use Frandsen/Polanco in 2013…then Asche in 2014…

      If Asche doesn’t pan out for 2014 or the ‘Phila expert FO talent assessors’ don’t have the faith in Asche that our posters do, then go out a get a 1 or 2 yr contract on a middle of road 3rd baseman and have Maikel Franco ready in 2015.

    2. Are we doing this again? For all of the hype on Asche, he has done zip in the big leagues. But Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, both MVP winners and world champs, have not developed as hitters? This is absolute craziness.

      Some of you posters need to temper your expectations by a lot. Not everybody is going to pan out, let alone be all-stars. There’s a reason why the Phillies haven’t had a good 3B since Rolen. The odds of Asche having a career like Rolen is very small. Just be happy if he can be a starter and better than Pedro Feliz/David Bell.

      1. Just wait…take the long term view, over time people will realize how common failure is. It’s like a venture capital investment, 15 put of every 20 early stage investments fail. And only one or two is a wild sucess. Is what it is.

    3. “… but after watching players like Rollins and Howard fail to fully develope as professional hitters…”
      Now that is classic.
      Seems 2,000 ML hits or 300 HRs and 125 OPS+ doesn’t make you a professional hitter anymore.

  12. Taking the conversation away from Asche, I was wondering what others thought on an interesting position prospect debate that may be a question for ranking our prospects on a whole (proximity vs projectibility).
    It is the question of who is better prospect between Cesar Hernandez and Roman Quinn.
    The easy call is that Quinn’s ceiling is higher but his floor is much lower than Hernandez who is almost big league ready. Quinn currently plays a more premium defensive position but could he eventually end up in CF or 2B. Quinn is faster but Hernadez isn’t slow and his hit tool is better. Quinn appears to show a little more power.

    Here are their season lines and Hernandez’s WIL line:
    Hernandez:
    2012 (AA/AAA) – .292/.328/.410, 19 SB, 12 CS, 2 HR, 12 3B, 30 2B – (age 21)
    2010 (SS) – .325/.390/.392, 32 SB, 6 CS, 0 HR, 2 3B, 13 2B – (age 19)

    Quinn:
    2012 (SS) – .288/.375/.398, 27 SB, 6 CS, 0 HR, 9 3B, 7 2B – (age 18)

    What do people think?

    1. I tend to go for ceiling over proximity, and I’m a (mild) Hernadez sceptic, so it’s an easy call for me. But this is one of those questions where reasonable minds may differ.

      I do think that the SS comp is interesting, but (a) Hernendez didn’t sustain that, (b) the one year age difference matters; (c) Quinn’s learning a new position and switching hitting for the first time (d) Hernadez does not have Quinn’s plus plus speed, or any other plus plus tool. Of course also, if Quinn can stick at SS, no sure thing. SS has more positional value than 2B.

    2. Make it a mathematical formula:

      Assign probabilities to
      1 – Never making majors (0 WAR)
      2 – Replacement level player (1 WAR)
      3 – Regular starter (2 WAR)
      4 – All star (5 WAR)
      5 – MVP (8 WAR)

      Figure out ETA, and multiply WAR by the probabilities and also by number of cost-controlled years based on ETA. If anyone can think of any other factors, those would probably be helpful too.

        1. Oddly enough, it’s not by many standards. A replacement player generally accumulates ~1-2 WAR.

          1. You have it confused, replacement level is 0 WAR, the average big league regular is 1-2 WAR (usually closer to 2). Replacement level is a guy you could randomly call up and plug in, someone like Luna, Fontenot, Martinez, Savery, these are your replacement level players, some of which are probably below replacement level stats wise at time but those are the guys you are talking about

          2. As others have said, you are wrong by definition, but this is actually a somewhat more contentious subject than one might think. In theory, a replacement level player has zero WAR. There are at least four complications. First, replacement level may vary by position. Of course, WAR adjust for position, but those adjustments are based upon the average player, and the adjustments might not hold for true replacement level players. Secondly, the whole concept assumes a pool of basically freely available players who don’t exist. If your SS is injured you don’t have a replacement level SS in your system and there are none on the waiver wire – well, you’re out of luck barring a trade. Thirdly, because of sample size issues, a replacement level player whose “true” value is zero WAR may well perform above that level over a period of time purely through chance. Finally, people debate whether the various systems that estimate “replacement level” do so correctly.

            But all else being equal, a true replacement level has a value of zero, and, in fact, players who have a value of 1 plus WAR usually have value (trade value and value in terms of getting a contract) which reflects that fact.

  13. Oh by the way. Ruf had a walk, double, and yes, his 35th HR of the year. Just another day in the office for our organizational filler. Yawn.
    ps … for anyone who cares … his ISO is .301 🙂

    1. It’s not as if us sceptics are unaware that Ruf is having a heck of a season. And we’re also enjying it! See below for one reason whay we don’t think that translates into the next Ryan Howard.

      1. Read it. Get it. Don’t care about Howard. Howard strikes out 200 times per year, makes close to 20 errors … and talk about a mistake hitter … wow. And it’s Howard who should be a platoon hitter.
        I get all the arguments, but some of them seem contradictory. Especially when we throw Howards name in the mix.
        To me, Howard is a beast who can hit a baseball a very long way. Darin Ruf is a baseball player.
        Not pushing for his entry to the Hall. Just admiring his season like you.

        1. The thing is at Ruf’s level Howard was a monster, look at his MVP season at just marvel at it for a second. Howard as a long loopy swing which gives him 80 raw power but means he cannot adjust on breaking balls especially from LHP. I give you Ruf as a better defensive player, wait for the league to pick Ruf apart and then reevaluate how much better he is than Howard, major league teams are smart and once they know how to beat you they will use it, the pity is Howard never adjusted back.

  14. Kevin Goldstein had a scathing write up on Darin Ruf in his Monday Ten Pack: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18152
    I doubt any of it will convince those on the Ruf bandwagon who will come up with a counter argument to these points:
    – Scouts say Ruf is a bad ball hitter, meaning he can crush the mistake pitches that AA pitchers make that won’t exist at higher levels
    – No player who made it to AA at age 26 (not was 26 in AA, but first made it there) has ever had a successful major league career
    – His ceiling is as a platoon batter against lefties, but he is not going to displace Howard

    and most importantly…

    – This is an amazing year for Ruf, enjoy it, the industry is rooting for him to do something, just realize that the success would be just making the major leagues don’t put anything more than that on him

    1. I actually have a reply to this, one I’d want to know what scouting reports are these based on? Were any in the past month? Not sure if you noticed or not but about a month ago something very different started happening in regards to Ruf. A guy who was hitting a homerun every 16 at bats is now hitting them in less than every 6 at bats, sure we’ve seen Rizzotti and other no body’s do that before for a week to 10 days, but Ruf has done it for a full month now and is showing no sign of slowing down. This is no longer a small sample size. He has 20 homeruns in the last 28 days. That sentence needs repeating, because it’s important NOBODY has EVER done that. Also let us keep in mind Reading had off twice during that period, so that is Twenty homeruns, most of which are bombs and moonshots, and I should know because I was on had to see 14 of them during that time period, in 26 games. He hits them in the first inning off starters, he hits them when the game is on the line vs a closer in the 9th. He hits them off of teams prospect pitchers, he hits them off of organizational filler. He hits them off righty’s and he hits them off lefties. He hits them to left, he hits them to center, he hits them to right. He would hit them on a plane, he would hit them on a train. “Death… Taxes…. Darin Ruf home runs”.

      He is two away from Howards single season record, he is six away from the Eastern League all time record. He is playing almost every game in left these days, which means the Phillies have now recognized what he is. He would have been called up to LV if not for the record and the play off push. My sources are telling me a sept call up for him is now likely.

      He is 26 that is true, but this is his year 25 technically and even if it wasn’t that issue is one with the Phillies starting him out too low and making him repeat CLW is clearly on them. A career 300 hitter, whose home run totals have gone what? 8, 16, and now 40? The lightswitch has been flipped, he understand this, Phillies Managment understand this, now the only people that don’t are some scout beat writers and people on a board about Phillies prospects that are ignoring the greatest hitting one at the moment. Everyone acts like he is so old, this is only his 4the year playing professional baseball, and it’s not like he’s hitting these bombs off of American legion pitchers, he playing against professionals here, other prospects. And that is what he is… A prospect and again the only people that don’t get it are a bunch of people that analyze Phillies prospects online.

        1. Well except it doesn’t seem to be based upon his observations, except for the length of the HR. And frankly I trust the observations scouts that Goldstein talks to much more than I trust a random commenter on this site. And you think Goldstein hasn’t spoken to any scouts recently about Ruf? Really? The guy is connected and diligent – you think he didn’t pick up the phone and talk to a contact or two before writing that piece?

          Now … I personally am probably more optimistic than Goldstein … but:

          First of all, yes 28 days is a small sample size. Really, really. I keep seeing people on these boards say “surely ‘x’ is no longer a small sample size.” And all they are showing is that they don’t understand the concept! That doesn’t mean we should dismiss what Ruf has done in the last month, but it means that we weight it accordingly. And while the pitchers are “professionals,” they are professionals who for the most part will never pitch a major league game. And finally, the :only his 4th professional season” – in evaluating prospects, the number of professional seasons is basically irrelevant. The age is what controls.

          No one doubts that Ruf is a heck of a hitter. But the expectations for him among Phillies’ fans have reached lunatic proportions.

          1. Agreed, Ruf is the most asked about prospect in baseball right now because people want to know who he is and what he can be. There is no way that Goldstein (and likely every other prospect writer) did not call up a scout who has seen Ruf recently.

      1. I don’t when the scouting reports are from, it was just paraphrased bullets from a pay only article. The thing is with AA pitching is that many of them won’t make the majors and there are a lot of fringy fastballs around, that being said it is hard to say he won’t hit until he has faced other pitching. Howards single season record is funny because he went on to hit 10 more homeruns that year after leaving AA. The real thing you have to do to temper your expectations is that he still is skill wise below the bar to be an everyday starting first baseman. He is not better than Howard right now except against some left handed pitchers. If he was good enough to be an everyday left fielder defensively the bat might play there. But I think this positional work is to make a bench bat with defensive flexibility who can spot start at 1B and LF against lefties.

        That is a prospect, it is not a sexy or special prospect but that is a back end prospect and he is a great scouting success story to find a late round guy who might make the major league club. The reason people here aren’t that excited about it is, because he is a right handed Laynce Nix at best, that player isn’t exciting, it is much more exciting to talk about the ceiling of Collier who could flame out or could be an All-Star CF, that is fun, Ruf’s major league equivalent is boring so it is more exciting to just watch than ruin him with future projection.

        1. So it’s better to get excited about a guy at a low level that has a higher ceiling and most likely will not reach it than it is to see a “back end” prospect who is on the doorstep and performing far and a way above his “ceiling”???

            1. So it’s better to waste your time excitement and enthusiasm on things that will likely not come true, vs someone who’s performing well above his “ceiling” that was arbitrarily placed by people you don’t know? Perhaps his ceiling is set too low.

            2. See below. Excitement is one thing, letting that excitement warp your expectations is another.

            3. Warped excitement is part of the fun part of being a PHAN…. Hence the word PHANATIC. Im sorry if you stay seated the whole game, but when something happens i jump up and down and cheer.

            4. Well… you’re talking about two completely different things. Excitement about expected future events and excitement about things that have occurred are not even close to the same thing. In this case, what Larry is talking about is people Calling the Rizz the next Babe, for example (and being serious about it). That is not justified excitement. Now being excited about Worley having an extremely successful rookie campaign is different because that has already happened, so it’s not unreasonable expectation, but rational reaction. I’m sure Larry jumps up for a homerun just like the rest of us.

            5. And whats wrong with getting excited about a players potential? Making Projections?? thats half the fun in it. Considering , i dont know, what 95% of players in minors NEVER have a MLB career, it would be an awful boring thing to do to actually come on a minor league site if you ALWAYS consider the fact that 9/10 guys you talk about will never make a MLB impact.
              Gloss over all the PUFF Pieces or PUFF predictions if you dont like it. WHO CARES.

          1. But to be a little less snarky and a little more serious, I don’t think anyone is really saying that we should pay more attention to Collier than Ruf (and FWIW, I am less excited about Collier than some people are). Of course in reality, Ruf is discussed about 100 times as much as Collier on this site. But one can appreciate Ruf’s season while still recognizing that, as a prospect, he is still pretty marginal.

        1. A month of homeruns as hit here has never been done before on any level, and we are going to say its a small sample size. Was there this much pessimism about Ryan Howard back in 04? Or it was ok cause it’s was his age 24 year?

            1. Ok well he has hit 20 homeruns in 28 days, Sammy sosa hit twenty in one month, York hit 18 in one month and bonds and babe Ruth hit 17 in a month. I guess those guys aren’t important in baseball though. And Ruf’s feat means nothing.

            2. It means something. What does it mean? Let’s separate this into 2 questions – what does it mean in terms of his prospect status, and what does it mean as an accomplishment? For the former, not much at all.

              For the latter – well, now, here we have an interesting question. As an accomplishment, it means something, maybe even means a lot. Would I put it on anywhere near the same level as the players you mention? Well, OF COURSE NOT. Accomplishing something like that in AA is not remotely comparable to accomplishing it in the majors.

            3. How does it mean very little for his prospect status? He’s hit home runs at a record-setting pace for a month. That’s strong evidence of exceptional power.

            4. His minor league career as a whole, with significant extra weight for this season, is what we use to determine his prospect status. The fact that the majority of his HR this season happened to be concentrated in a one month span does not impact his prospect status.

              Does he look better as a prospect today than he did a month ago? Yes, a little bit. But not because his month was “record-setting.”

              Among other things, the fact that Rudy York is grouped above with Sosa, Ruth and Bonds should tell you one reason why we don’t evaluate players primarily on one month sample sizes.

            5. (In reply to Larry’s comment above)

              Of course we have to view new evidence in the context of all the other data we have on Ruf. But his recent performance IS significant. Lots of players have sustained his recent HR rate over a week or two, but in the whole history of the game only a handful have sustained it over a month. His ability to do so provides strong evidence of exceptional power.

              Occasionally someone of average power will hit a hot streak and have a month like this. If we take the reference class of Ruth, Bonds, Sosa, and York, we see 3 of the game’s all-time elite power hitters, and one guy who lucked into that level of performance, although York still had a long and productive ML career.

              Just to give an idea of the amount of information conveyed: Using the odds form of Bayes rule, that’s 3:1 odds of elite power. So whatever our initial assessment was that Ruf has elite power, we should multiply those odds by 3. If you initially thought the odds that Ruf has elite power was 100:1, it should now be 33:1, and if you initially thought it was 20:1, it should now be 7:1.

              So yes, Ruf’s recent performance is very significant to his prospect status.

            6. I’m not sure his hot streak has any bearing on his power (in reference to what it was before), actually. Simply put, elite power hitters aren’t elite just because they’re capable of hitting a high number of home runs, but because they can consistently hit the ball a long, long way. Utley and Werth have never been plus-plus power hitters, however they’ve both hit ~40 HRs in a season, which is a plus-plus amount relative to the league. But they never had the raw power to shatter the stadium lights, as it were.

              That is to say, anyone with above average power can hit homeruns at a rate the Ruf has given the right luck and that they have the required other hitting tools to back up their power, this combination is just exceptionally rare. If Ruf has started hitting balls further more consistently than he was before, then I would question if his power tool has increased.

            7. That’s an … interesting application of Bayesian analysis. And not a valid one, for a number of reasons, not the least of which (but far from the only one) being that there is only the most tenuous relationship between doing that in the majors and doing that in the minors. But not one that is, I think resolvable in a comment thread.

              The bottom line for me: if you want to argue that Ruf’s seasonal accomplishment means that he may have elite power, go ahead. I’m still a skeptic for reasons I won’t rehash, but 35 HR and counting in AA is certainly impressive. But the fact that a disproportionate number of those HR came in the month of August adds nothing to that argument.

          1. I’m not saying what he’s done has not been impressive. His year, especially the last month, has been ridiculous. But a month is a small sample size, that’s a fact.

        2. A sufficiently large outlier can be statistically significant even in a small sample. 20 HRs in a 30-day span is an all-time power rate.

          I don’t think he will keep up his current pace, but the last month has provided strong evidence that he has exceptional power. Now we just have to see how it translates to the next level.

          1. Let me try to clarify this with a question – assuming a given seasonal performance, are you saying that the fact that a disproportionate amount of a player’s success came in a short period (even a period late in the season) makes the season more impressive than if the production was spread more evenly throughout the season?

            If you answer “yes” to this question, then my sample size argument holds and you are simply mistaken. If you answer “no” to this question, that it isn’t really sample size we are arguing over, but rather we are differing on how to weigh Ruf’s chances given the totality of the evidence.

            1. I don’t know what you mean by “more impressive”. We’re talking about a minor league player, and we’re considering the possibility that he is improving.

              If a player’s second half is better than his first half, I can do a statistical test for a structural break to estimate the likelihood that he has truly improved.

            2. No, that test won’t tell you that. No statistical test will. You can compare the first half and second half, and get an estimate as to how often a difference of that magnitude could occur simply as a result of random chance. No statistical test can tell you “the likelihood that he has truly improved.”

              Now, here is where a knowledge of statistics can only take us so far. It’s one thing to say that most people vastly under estimate the extent to which random chance can explain significant, even extreme, outcomes. They certainly do. But that, I will be the first to admit, doesn’t definitively answer the question of whether Ruf has “truly improved.” I have a number of reasons, some related to statistics, but other related to knowledge of prospect development, that make me extremely skeptical that all of the sudden a light went on for Ruf on August 1, 2012. My point about the statistics is that, despite what some of you believe, they do NOT prove that such an in season improvement occurred.

            3. First of all, let me again acknowledge that the full year data suggests a significant improvement in HR hitting ability. But the fact that a player CAN make sudden and large improvements late in his career doesn’t prove anything about whether a certain player have done so.

              When I talked about “have a number of reasons, some related to statistics, but other related to knowledge of prospect development,” part of what I meant by that was that such large, sudden improvements are rare; part of it was they get rarer as a player gets older, and part of it it that, when they do occur, they tend to occur from season to season, not within a season. Or at least that’s my perception. And when they DO occur, they tend to be accompanied by changes in approach or swing mechanics or the like – none of which appears to be the case with Ruf – at least the August Ruf compared to the pre-August Ruf (or, if it has, we haven’t heard reports of it, even from his most ardent fans). Finally, with Ruf, we have a pattern of improvement on top of improvement that seems highly unlikely – that is, as I said I am perfectly willing to believe that the season as a whole demonstrates some real improvement in his power hitting – after all he was approaching a career high in HR BEFORE the hot streak.

              More to the point, the statistical evidence – the August HR binge – by itself does not go very far, if at all, to support that such a dramatic improvement has happened. Again, as acknowledged above, it would be silly for anyone to deny that the full year data suggests signficant development as a HR hitter.

            4. Players do improve, especially in the minors. Ruf has improved each of the last two years. His continuing to improve this year was a possiblity, and while his performance in the last month might be the result of random chance, it might also be the result of such an improvement.

              Statistical tests can’t answer such questions definitvely, but they do allow us to say how likely it is for someone to have a month like Ruf is having if they are indeed the same player that produced his April-July. We have to combine this with our initial estimate of the likelihood of such an improvement to draw any conclusions.

    2. Oh the philly.com baseball chat today, the host said that he thinks the phils will call up Ruf for a look see. That they now see him as a legit prospect even given his age, but don’t harbor any delusions that he is the second coming. That being said, his last month has been one for the history books.

    3. ‘- No player who made it to AA at age 26 (not was 26 in AA, but first made it there) has ever had a successful major league career’…does KG list the ones who did make it to the MLB without being successful?

    4. I can’t read the RUF part since I do not have an account but……

      #1 – Ruf made it to AA at 25 by a safe margin, not 26.
      #2 – The Phil’s have moved him to the OF and are discussing promoting him in Sept as an OFer with extra Off-season work in the OF. The initial reports seems that he will be capable.
      #3 – While he has amazing numbers against lefties, his OPS against Righties is over 900.

      I do not know what his ceiling will be.
      But please wake me up when we have reports from people who have seen them play and know at least the basics such as Age and Position……………

        1. Or his manager who sees him every day and said he’s improving and should be at least average? See? Sarcasm and snide comments work both ways :p

  15. Two thoughts on the Asche ISO stat. One, his ISO was the opposite at Clearwater. Very low. At the time I noted the power and compared him to, I think Dave Magadan? Second, the link above compares Asche to every player with a better ISO. Even ones 100 points better. But it omits players even six points worse. Also, by taking only qualified players you eliminate guys who accomplished what Asche has in the same number of plate appearances. Going through my own list you get guys like Mark Teahen, Eric Munson, Hank Blalock, Josh Fields, Morgan Ensberg. Guys who popped a great year or two but didn’t last.

    We’ve also got the Reading ballpark, and quite a few guys have popped big HR totals there. Jeff Inglin, Randy Ruiz, Mike Costanzo, John Castellano, Matt Rizzotti, Derrick Mitchell, Cody Overbeck. How many guys do you see hit at AA and crap out at AAA before you notice a pattern?

    Asche could well be a future starting 3B in the majors. But his ETA is Opening Day 2014. Anything more than that is wishcasting.

    1. The whole point of providing that play index was

      a) to show how few very good power hitting third basemen there are, (look at the list and see something like 9 ARod seasons, plus multiple seasons from Beltre, Wright, others)
      b) to point out how exceptional a sustained .225 ISO would be for a 3B, and
      c) to point out that it’s foolish to assume Asche will be anywhere near what he’s doing right now in the bigs.

      I was not interested in comparing his ~250PA at AA with ~250 PA seasons in the bigs. That’s not the point of the exercise I was going through. I think AA to big league comps are all wishcasting, like you say, so I was using this as a tool to knock down the high side comps people might make when projecting his current run to full seasons in the bigs.

  16. Someone should tell Asche if he is ever having a bad day to just visit this site and read the comments. He’ll feel like a million dollars after that.

  17. And the real secret to Darin Ruf’s success is revealed, it’s not “the juice” as a couple other people have implied. After the phillies received Tommy Joseph in the trade, that is when this amazing hot streak began, and it’s not something that Tommy Joseph said to him, it actually is…. His bat. Ruf picked up Joseph’s bat at some point and liked the feel of it and he’s used it ever since, instead of buying his bats, he actually is having joepsh’s bats made for him to use, complete with Tommy Joseph’s name engraved on them…

    1. That’s actually really interesting. I’ve thought for some time that players should have bats selected for them by the team. There really is a formula based on each individual where you can calculate the ideal bat weight.

  18. Ryan Howard 2004 Reading 102 games
    374 AB’s    73 R.  111 hits.  18 2B’s. 37 HR 102 RBI’s.
    .297/.386/.647  1033. 46 walks 129 k’s

    Darin Ruf 2012 Reading last 108 games
    377 AB’s.    74 runs.  114 hits. 25 2B’s. 33 HR. 85 RBI’s 
    .301/ .406 / .630  1036.   56 walks.  79k’s

    1. Not to diminish it too much, but like Howard in 2004, many of the better pitchers in the league were promoted this season to AAA before Ruf went on his power trip. It’s unknowable what % of those guys might have stopped him from hitting a HR or have even been in a position where they might have been in place of one of the guys who did give up a HR to Ruf. Just saying it’s not a perfect comparison.

  19. So what is Ruf’s ceiling on a scouting note (20-80 scale), for those that aren’t familiar here is the scale (you can disagree with the comps, the only ones I am positive on are the 20s and 80s):
    20 – Putrid (Hewitt’s plate discipline, Pierre’s power)
    30 – Well Below Average (Pierre’s arm, Howard’s speed)
    40 – Below Average (Kendrick’s fastball velocity)
    50 – Average (Utley’s speed, Ruiz’s power)
    60 – Plus (Brown’s plate discipline, Utley’s power)
    70 – Plus Plus (McCutchen’s hit, Galvis’s defense)
    80 – Elite (Hamel’s changeup, Lee’s command, Stanton’s power)

    Try not to bash other’s rankings just lets see where people put Ruf’s ceiling as a player:
    Hit – 50
    Power – 65
    Defense – 60 (1B) / 35 (LF)
    Arm – (I don’t know)
    Plate Discipline – 55 (they don’t pitch to him enough to get a good grip on where this really is)
    Speed – 35

    1. Not going to rank because I haven’t seen enough of Ruf in person to do so, but I enjoyed the examples you gave for the scouting scale. I think, just for fun, on elite I simply would have put “Mike Trout.”

    2. I would guess Ruf’s power is a little lower, and his hit tool maybe a little higher. Won’t argue with the rest though. It’d be nice if a K-Law or somebody would do one of those instead of just saying he’s 26 end of discussion.

    3. Current (Projection)

      Hit: 55 (60)
      Power: 65 (70)
      Disc.: 50 (60)
      Defense: 1B 55 (60) / LF unknown
      Arm: unknown but I’ve “heard” average for LF, so we will say 50 (50) since arms don’t improve.

  20. As an MLB projection I would rank his hit tool as Plus and his Power tool as average. What is of bigger interest to me is his defensive matrix. Whether he is MLB cailiber LF or not makes all the difference in the world as to what his career might be.

    1. The other tool I’d like to hear some scouting reports on would his pitch recognition tool and some would say that is part or both a hit tool and actual sustainable power. Some hitters are good at getting themselves into a FB count at which point they simply sit on the FB and knock it out.

      While elite or plus plus power guys will hit HR’s in just about any count more often. Cabrera is a good example, as is Pujols. It’s rare to watch one of their AB’s and see them fooled on a pitch. In contrast Erik Kratz has immense power and could hit the ball as far as anyone in the big leagues but I think you saw over the course of a few games this weekend where he failed to recognize sliders out of the hand.

      I believe Ryan Howard in his early years got by on guess hitting so depending on your definition of plus power (mine would be sustained 30+ HR years) it would be hard for me to give a minor league player or should I say rare to give them a PLUS power rating. And again that is mostly because there is no book on you in the minor leagues the way there will be a book on you in the MLB.

      Advance scouting and video work will make mice out of many mountain men at the next level. We know the ballparks aren’t bigger so its not a matter of strength.

      1. Sometimes scouts will use raw power and actualized power. Normally raw power is what is being quoted and that is what you see in batting practice. For example you could argue 70-80 raw power on Greene and Cozens. I would give Mayberry a 60+ grade on his power but only a 40 on his hit, translating to that he doesn’t make consistent contact, but when he does get good contact it goes far. Plate discipline does not necessarily mean a high walk total it means not swinging at bad pitches, you can sit on a pitch or location that you will swing at and that can be good discipline.

        At the major leagues the power tools is tied to the hit tool to actualize it, at the minor leagues the power grades you hear are often just raw power as players are still working to make good contact.

  21. What I find hilarious is that the same people may saying Ruf on here today would have said the exact same things about Ryan Howard in 2004, scouting reports on Howard even AFTER the 04 season is reading stated that he could be a .260 hitter but more likely .240, that he would provide 20 to possibly 30 HR’s a year and there was even debate as to whether he could translate at all to MLB pitching due to the very high k rate

    1. There is a rather large difference between the class of pitching in 04-09 in the Majors as to where it’s been the past three seasons. That may have something to do with it as well.

    2. Set aside the fact that Howard’s resume was overall better for a number of reasons (not the least of which is that he was 1 1/2 years younger, a difference that means much more than people seem to realize). Beyond that, you do have a point, but probably not the point that you think you have. Howard WAS a guy who exceeded his expectations. Just like Utley and Werth and Victorino and Ruiz. The Phillies have had an unusual number of those types of players over the years. I think that has skewed fan perceptions as to what expectations are reasonable as a prospect. But in reality, stars players mostly have a predicable career path that doesn’t look anything like any of the recent Phillies’ home grown stars, except for Rollins (who gets bashed for it!) and Hamels.

    3. Interesting about Ryan Hoard’s past..Dallas Green and Bill Conlin did not even envision him making it in the majors back in 2003.

    4. What I find hilarious is that the same people who are insulted that every other poster doesn’t see Ruf as the next Allstar for the Phillies, is that they are the same people who were posting the daily Rizzotti updates in June/July 2010.

  22. Some of you guys are as confusing as heck. I don’t see any difference between those of you who project a player to make it from those of you who don’t. You are both trying to convince the other that your prognostication is more reasonable than the other. Okay. Great. But there’s no sense in getting touchy about it. No matter how many metrics you throw out there you are both still guessing.
    And guessing that a player won’t make it is pretty easy to do since most minor leaguers don’t make it.
    I think that the biggest factor that determines a players success in the majors is an opportunity to succeed. And by that I mean bringing a guy up and starting him every day for two months at least.
    When referencing the thousands of guys who starred in the minors but didn’t make it in the “show”… I think like 90% of them really didn’t get a fair shot to play everyday. For example; if you watch the way Asche started out poorly in AA, if that was the majors Charlie would have sat his butt down after 5 games and sent him back down in favor of Hector Luna. 🙂
    The second biggest factor is a player who continuously works to get better. And there really is no stat for that. You just have to watch it take place over time. See Chooch.
    In any case … I am new to this site and really appreciate the wide range of mostly knowledgeable opinions. Thanks. Well done.

    1. CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Sorry , just had to get that out………………. ( nothing to do with any post or argument)

  23. I love baseball talk and prospect speculation, but I have reached my saturation point with the Asche and Ruf discussions. Those themes have so dominated that I can barely read my favorite website beyond the actual box scores.

    I am very much looking forward to the Lakewood team next year. I will be interested to see if there are any GCL players on the Lakewood team or if they all move to Williamsport. If the GCL squad and the GCL position players stay somewhat intact, and come together at future levels there could be a really nice combined squad. I will admit, as a two level group (not one or two player greatness), they have me more interested than at any other time in the last 10 plus years.

      1. Right. Though it may be fruitless to criticize the content of a public forum, the dialogue has nonetheless become stale to some degree. And it’s quite the shame since there are a dozen or so great stories on the Pharm which don’t necessarily involve Ruf or Asche. On the other hand, it could always be worse. Say for instance if DMitchell was hitting .290 since his return.

        1. Would we rather revisit the Rizz and Overbeck discussions? Also, Ruff and Aschee are not helping the discussion to move away from them if they keep hitting every night like they have been.

          1. Another week like the past four and these guys are going to force us to learn to spell their last names …

    1. Suggested we trade Valle in the off-season. I don’t know, I just don’t think you can ever have enough catchers. The odds of either of our blue chippers turning into an above average catcher are smaller than I’d like to image, put I think they both have a floor of a back-up so you keep them both and pray that one of them continues to develop.

      1. I wouldn’t necessarily be against trading Valle because we have other catchers in the system beyond him and Joseph. There will be 3 guys at the top two levels deserving of playing time. Rupp isn’t as good a prospect as Valle, but he wouldn’t bring as much back in a trade for that reason.

    1. Good to see him settled down tonight after giving up a solo shot in the 1st.

      I still believe in him.

  24. Trevor may hitting his spots fastball in wide range unless he has a two and four seam fastball one of them is sitting 93-96 the other is around 90ish curve is doing its thing around 79-80, gave up solo shot in the first but also 3 k’s.

  25. May 4IP 1H 1HR 1ER 0BB 4K

    I am higher on may then many here who seem to want to bury him, but I think he is going to put it together and be a solid #3, this season I think just pushes back his arrival by half a season and puts him behind Pettibone (if he wasn’t already going into the season) on order of call ups to the bigs. He will never be confused with Lee or Haladay when it comes to walks but I think he can be a good starter especially if he doesn’t let it get to him mentally.

  26. May thru 5 is looking brilliant just the one hit the solo shot in the first, 6 k’s no walks

    1. Ruf and Asche both 2 for 3…. Hope their is some Brass there tonight …

      Good to see May on top of it, good to see Gillies and Castro in on it…

    2. 18th homer in August. Amazing!!! Does anyone know the minor league record for homers in a month? The major league record is 20 (Sosa). It’s true that this site has become the Asche/Ruf show for the last month, but it’s not as if these guys are getting idle praise. They just keep performing. Who cares what it means. It’s great entertainment!

      1. It is down right comical, that no matter what your thoughts on these players are after this season, you have to laugh that it seems to be every damn night they both do it

        1. AA pitchers have to be shaking before starts looking at Gillies, Asche, Ruf leading off games. Been a lot of fun to follow this last month.

  27. May through 6, still the one hit, te solo shot, 7k’s now, no walks. Has been truely dominant.

    1. May just had AB in not of 6th will be returning for the 7th obviously Jay Johnson starting to stretch. But a VERY ugly scene on May’s AB grounded out to 3rd and wow he is very slow running to first, more than half the stadium was booing him hardcore. I always worry about his mental state he looked upset with the booing.

    1. Thanks for the updates, Jeremy. I think it was nepp93 who had an excellent post the other day about how his last start was the turning point due to mixing his pitches well and moving the ball around the zone. Seems like he is doing it again tonight. Awesome!

      In other news, how cool is it that Asche is over .300? Amazing.

  28. So .. I’m noticing an interesting pattern here. On the one hand, the response to my mild skepticism regarding Ruf and Asche – I say mild, because my projections/expectations for the two of them are wildly more optimistic than the apparent scouting consensus – is not so much that I am wrong, but rather than I am a wet blanket because part of being a fan is making overly optimistic projections of prospects. Now, I don’t think that’s part of being a fan, but fair enough, apparently some people do.

    But on the other hand, apparently it’s okay for fans to trash – absolutely trash – a long time Phillies player, the best ever for the team at his position, a near hall of famer … because he doesn’t run out routine grounders. Oh, and because, this year, for the first time in his stellar 12 year career, he has an above average number of pop-ups, which somehow is taken as some sort of character flaw – because … well, I don’t know the because.

    And you know what? It’s the same people. Not entirely and not always, but what really steamed me about many of the calls for playing the kids was that it was often coupled with trashing the veterans. Not so much in this thread – though one of guys who spends most of his time overdoing his praise of the prospects decided to give anon1 a “+1” for his vile libel of Rollins. Hey Del, I was intending to start cutting you some slack, but not after that.

    Here’s a resolution for you – I’ll try to ignore the over enthusiastic prospect projections – or, at least, be nicer about debunking them. OTOH, I’m not going to promise to be nice to the people trashing the effort of players like Rollins. Far from it.

    1. I gave him a +1 because of you stating that players that hustle at all times are showboats and gloryhounds…….. That was truly an odd statement, the poster never libeled Rollins, he was asserting your statement as proposterous, and i agreed. Players should hustle on any play that has a chance and that play had a chance, i can see giving up on a bullet hit to the second baseman and you are only 3 steps out of the box when he is about to throw, but hustling down the line on anything that has a remote chance is YOUR JOB that you get PAID MILLIONS to do. Yes , MLB players rarely screw the pooch on those plays but a handful of times a year they do. Hustling is not showboating its called Dedication and commitment….

      Now , the guy who sprints to first base after a walk, now thats just funny…

      BTW i could care less who reads and doesnt read what i say, and if anybody DEBUNKS anything i say, its just my opinion… Hey did you see Asches batting average today?? LOL

      1. Also, this was in no way or means anything to cut on Rollins, he is one of my favorite players of the past decade, was more commenting on the diatribe on Hustling….

        Hustling in baseball that is, not anything to do with all the pimps on the board…

      2. Del, did you read his posts? That’s not trashing Rollins? Really? I’m happy though to hear that you don’t agree with his opinion about Rollins. Maybe you should have spoken up about that, instead of giving apparent support to his libel of the man.

        You’re wrong about the “hustle” thing, of course, but as long as your not trashing one of the best players to ever don a Phillies uniform I won’t give you too much grief about it.

        1. No i didnt read all the posts today, kinda hard…. just kinda happened upon that post when scrolling thru the page.. Believe me, i have nothing against Rollins, like i said one of my favorites…

        2. Larry, I know i am one of the few Philly fans who actually agree with you on the Rollins hustle issue. Some people forget that he consistantly played almost every game every year at one of the more physically demanding positions. If there are 10 -15(i think that is a big overestimate, but even so) times a year he jogs to 1st out of how many PAs through the year it is not significant. And for the Record I have witnessed every player on the current roster dog it down to first on a routine groundball on more than 1 occasion.

          Personally with Rollins my only issue has been the fact that he has the ability to take pitches and work counts like Utley and Brown and he does it for short periods of time and then it appears he falls in love with the power stroke. And this was a problem i had with him earlier in his career when he would put together a brilliant half to the season and a not so good other half. But over the years of watching the same things people should realize this is what he is and in context with his peers he is a better option than most.

        3. One of the best players to ever don a Phillies uniform?? That doesn’t say much for the Phillies does it! Is Rollins your grandson maybe?

          1. Dunno what you mean, it’s true. While I don’t think he’s a HOFer, he’s not all that far off. He’s been one of the best SS in baseball for quite a few years. And he does it all; incredible defense, good pop, excellent speed. If you can’t appreciate what he’s given us, your standards are way too high. Not everyone can be Schmidt.

      3. “Batting averages don’t count or mean anything” Just ask some skeptics/ experts here. So just because it’s over .300, don’t pay attention because there are many who know more than you and say so…everlasting.

  29. May’s night is done being pinch hit forbin the bot of the 9th his line

    8 IP, 1 run, earned (the solo shot in the first) off two hits (in the 1st and the 8th but that was nullified by the dp) he faced only one over the minimum

    1. I was listening to the game, was it purely to get the save for Friend or do you have another reason they pulled him, his pitch count was pretty low?

      1. I think that was part of it. They had a 3 run lead, New Britain won tonight so winning was imperative. Had one on in the bottom of the 8th (Castro) so i think they truly wanted the insurance run, so they pinch hit with Tripp. Trevor was truly dominant and if he is turning the corner, pulling him out was probably the best choice. As its just a stepping stone for the next time. And then there is the save record for Friend on top of all that. I had thought it could go either way and was fine with the decision. As for pitch count I can’t imagine it was high, the app I have on occasion doesn’t update fast or have pitch counts in some games. This was one of them.

        One interesting side note even with the pinch hit by Tripp who is an outfielder, Ruf was left in the game for the top of the 9th usually they shuffle him back to first in these situations

  30. there will an article on ruf in tomorrow’s philly inquirer. brass hasn’t decided if he’ll be recalled in september.

      1. Sadly MMart is the only back up SS on the team (I guess you could play Fransden there) which means he should be stapled to the bench if Rollins gets hurt and he should never ever see the field. Galvis is currently only on the 15 day DL and could move to the 60 day now that he is off suspension (Stutes could also be moved to make room for another player).

  31. Great to see May have a dominant day today. I think he can still put it together. Ever since his million walk game he’s been pretty solid and today he was dominant.

    1. Yeah, this performance by May is great news. He definitely struggles with control at times but the talent is there. Enough talent to warrent considerable patience.

  32. I no longer care about any stats, sabbermetrics, projections, probabilities, etc. Darin Ruf can just flat out hit. Considering that the Phillies have NO consistent power from the right side, I predict that he will be a Phuture Philly on the 25 man roster next April. There you have it.

  33. What the heck is going on over at the ‘2010 Draft Picks register’ posting? Starting in May, a discussion of clothing and hair or something like that is occurring. Roccom saw it earlier and wondered the same thing. Are these guys using this site as a way to sell stuff?

  34. The popular bpinon is the jump to AA is the hardest. So why is it a surprise when guys struggle. As far as I see how they finish up is the most important baring fatigue.

  35. Can I suggest a thread devoted exclusively to Ruf and Asche? These box score threads are becoming painfully difficult to read.

    Also, I hate to be the thread police, but I don’t think anybody who comes here to read about prospects wants to comb through dozens of posts about whether or not Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard fulfilled their potential as big league hitters (sigh). That’s General Discussion.

    I really enjoy this site and am beginning to get frustrated with the level of discourse I see each day. It’s so … internet-y.

    1. Due to the daily hijacking of the boxscore thread, I wouldn’t mind a separate thread for Ruf and Asch. The only problem for me would be the two players being lumped together as if they are in the same position and same level prospect. Asche is, and has been, a legitamate prospect. The debate is if he has the ability to be a good regular. Ruf is an older minor league player, having a great year, that may have forced himself into prospect status.
      Two different discussions.

      1. I’m sorry but that a fairly lame response, they are both prospects now, whether you want to admit it or not. If nothing that latter will be in Philly much sooner that Asche as in a couple weeks vs a couple years. You wanna have separate threads for different prospects? Legit vs non legit, why not go further why not have separate threads for age groups? Or teams or positions? How about weight? Hair color?

        You don’t like that Ruf is now a prospect, we get it you thought that he was another Rizzotti, well he proved you wrong and the Phillies reactions show that they admit he is prospect now as well. There would be absolutely no reason to have separate discussions on two top hitting prospects that are playing for the same team and bat next to each other in the batting order. That’s just silly and perhaps bitterness talking.

        1. Oh please.

          Let’s set aside for the moment the question of the prospect status of the two players. They are dominating the daily threads to an extent that would be absurd if they were both top ten prospects in all of baseball. You would think that the Phillies had only two decent prospects in the minor leagues. And every day it’s the same posts, over and over. It’s excessive, it’s repetitive, it’s boring. And it crowds out discussion of our other prospects.

          1. Well I’m truly sorry that Darin Ruf keeps coming up in the box score discussions maybe it has something to do with the fact that he hits a home run on a near daily basis.

            1. I’m sure you aren’t really that dense in real life. As you are, I am sure, well aware, he doesn’t just come up – he, along with Asche, dominates the discussion every day.

            2. And why wouldn’t they if they are the ones who’s performance is shining the brightest. A website about Phillies prospects, where people focus on the prospects that are performing the best…. Why is this a hard concept to accept?

        2. Please tell me how Ruf has proved he is not another Rizzotti? Not that he is, but please tell me what he has proved, over and above Rizzotti? Rizzotti had a better year, at a younger age, than Ruf.
          I’ll take that criticism(and bitterness remark) from the same guy that was posting two years ago that Rizzotti was a better prospect than Dom Brown, and posts now that he’s seen Kniggee throw 101 mph.

          1. How did Rizzotti have a better year than Ruf? If you’re talking about Riz’s higher average I remember that being attributed to luck in 2010 due to babip, Ruf has hit more than twice as many homeruns as Rizzotti did that year without the babip anomaly, that was Rizzotis 4the year as a pro, this is Ruf’s 4th year as a pro.

            I will eat crow on the fact that I got caught up for a time in the Rizzotti hype, but it should be fairly clear that I have been much more careful in this instance, and again they are two entirely different players in terms of defensive skill and yes in power.

            As for the Kniggie comment he hits 94 to 97 consistently on Readings gun, (although recently that has ticked down a bit) Readings radar gun is set up backwards, I’ve seen first hand on scouts guns a 2 to 3 mph difference, I’ve had discussions with them about it even. So when on 3 separate occasions I’ve seen Readings gun flash 99 for knigiees pitches that would be 101. Like I said his numbers have come done a tick but his control has improved so the gun now flashed 93-95 which would be 95-98 with the adjustment that I was told to make by professional scouts (you know the people that you believe are infallible and can never be wrong) so before he would have been throwing 96-99 and the one that’s flashed 99 would be 101 or 102.

            1. “How did Rizzotti have a better year than Ruf?” – Jeremy

              Rizz: AA, age 24, 357 / 448/ 628, 12.9 BB%, 18.1 K%, OPS 1.076, wOBA .469

              Ruf : AA, age 25, 317 / 408/ 622, 11.2 BB%, 17.0 K %, OPS 1.030, wOBA .448

              That’s how.

            2. VOR, I’m mostly with you on this, but I don’t think you can deny – especially in retrospect – that Rizzotti benefited a lot from BIP luck. Take the air out of his BA, and he slips pretty clearly below Ruf. Very close on contact rate and BB rate, with Ruf a small edge in the former and lagging a little in the latter, but Ruf with clearly more power.

            3. I actually think Ruf has a better chance than Rizzotti. I have seen Ruf play defense, and believe he can at least stay on the field.
              The problem is, with all of the over the top silliness, (like comps to Ryan Howard) you can’t get a word in to compliment the guy.

            4. And the fact that Rizzotti had a better year than Ruf is not really the point. It is that the same guys that went overboard with Rizzotti are the same guys that are blasting everybody else, for not seeing Ruf as a great prospect yet. Its like there is no reference, that makes the thought relevant.

            5. Riz BAPIP 2010- .403
              Ruf BAPIP 2012- .332

              I don’t care about age, it is /was both their 4th year of pro ball

              Riz- defensive liability even at first base, no possibility in OF
              Ruf- plays great first base, work in progress for OF but definetely possible

              Riz- 17 homeruns combined between A+ and AA
              Ruf- 36 homeruns and counting in AA

              Riz power- shots to the pool in left, some barely over shots to right center (with one very powerful exception that was hit over RT 61)
              Ruf power- shots deep in left over and past the deck, shots to Center that are up the hill and opposite field power to right.

      2. Fair enough … a separate Ruf thread then. As long as the major league discussions end in the box score threads!

    2. I hope the irony that a post asking that the Ruf-a-thon be taken elsewhere has been turned into a debate about Darin Ruf is not going unnoticed. 🙂

      1. VOR asked a questions and I answered them, thats how

        Babip

        2010 Rizzotii – .403
        2012 Ruf- .332

  36. We all have a opinion on ruf. Imo its very hard to judge him,not seeing him play, numbers he has put up this year would excited anyone. sometimes people do take longer to get it. but you cant say he flat out cant play yet, until we see him in higher level. maybe it just took him longer. or maybe he is the next mike anderson, or countless others who put up great numbers, but coulnt translate them to majors.i really hope he goes to the afl to see what he can do.

  37. Preliminary Top 10 as we wrap up August:

    1. Biddle: tremendous finish to A+ as 20 year old. If velo is truly back to low-mid 90s, he should have a shot at being a top 100 guy.
    2. Joseph: 20 year old in AA. Outstanding scouting reports on him.
    3. May: up and down season in AA. However, his stuff will play in the majors; his control will determine whether he’s a reliever or starter.
    4. Franco: .891 OPS in second half as a teenager in the SAL. Really looking forward to watching him grow.
    5. Quinn: First season ever switch-hitting. A shortstop with a .374 OBP as a teenager is extremely impressive. One of the only guys in the system who has the potential to become elite.
    6. Pettibone: good results this season. Back end starter; needs to cut down on the walks in AAA
    7. Asche: He’s slugging .640 in AA post-allstar break as a 22 year old; would like to see how he adjusts to AAA pitching, but he is without question a legitimate prospect.
    8. Martin: he has as much talent as any pitcher in the system. Tremendous upside. He could really take off next year if the walks go down
    9. Valle: .272 OBP across two levels this year. However, .182 ISO this year as a 22 year old catcher is very intriguing. Plate discipline will determine if he can be a starting catcher in the bigs. Still has time to develop.
    10. Watson: high ceiling. Hopefully will log alot of innings at Lakewood next year

    HM’s:
    Gillies
    Hernandez
    Bonilla
    Collier ( my sleeper for next year. Offensive numbers will improve in Reading and won’t wear down like FSL players do at the end of the season)
    LG Jr
    Walding
    The GCl gang (cozens, pullin, tocci, gueller)

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