2012 Reader Top 30, #10

2012 Reader Top 30

Maikel Franco took home the #9 spot in comfortable fashion, gliding past Julio Rodriguez. Today we round out the top 10, and then we move forward. Roman Quinn and Lisalberto Bonilla will be added this round, replacing Franco and Mitchell Walding. The Mitchell Walding thing is really weird. People write him in, then he gets added and no one votes for him. Anyway.

As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B

Check below for #10

79 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #10”

  2. J-Rod got my vote, but I’m really just throwing darts at this point. We’ve had this talk 10 times now, but it’s hard to synthesize the difference between our low ceiling, upper level guys and our high ceiling, low level guys. I could craft an argument to support any of the names above aside from Savery as the #10 prospect.

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  3. Voted for Gillies. Of all of the Phillies CF prospects, he has the most complete skillset. Just needs to stay healthy.

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    1. Health is an important part of the skill set, but yea, I’m getting ready to vote for him simply because he could potentially be starting in CF next year if he gets healthy and progresses as previously expected.

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  4. Voted JRod again. Had no problem with Franco getting in ahead of him. I had Franco next anyway. With Bonilla on the ballot, I going to take a look again at my next 5 picks. I know who they are but haven’t put them in an order yet. The Greenes are on that list. Pointer is on that list and I’ve been hemming and hawing over Jiwan James or Gillies. Gillies hasn’t played in 2 years. His major strength was his wheels and he didin’t use them very much in the AFL. 4 SBs in 4 attempts but so many times I was looking for a 2 SB game. The 2 year absence and a concern about his speed, makes me drop him. He’ll be on the top 30 list but down a bit.

    I still haven’t slotted Austin Wright and I like him in these next 5 picks. He has a bunch of ‘ifs’ that came with him from his College days but being a lefty and the fact he seemed to straighten things out in the pro ranks, puts him in this section of my top 30. It’s a good problem to have.

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  5. J-Rod, by a significant margin. Don’t care ’bout no radar guns (especially when the reports are inconsistent), look at the results. If he can survive in Reading, he’s a stud.

    Time to add Hyatt and Cloyd, and maybe Ramirez soon.

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    1. Agreed. Big test for JRod this year but it’s tough to dismiss his career results so far. Julio at #10 for me.

      Likely going with LGJ to start the next 10

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  6. I actually switched to James for this round. expected to go JRod, but the reference to the BA list in one of last week’s polls made me rethink. BA relies on scouts heavily, and as far as I can tell, didn’t reference JRod at all, so I’m prone to think his velo and other stuff are closer to the bad reviews than the good. The results are good, but its a simple matter that there are virtually no impact RH starters who throw 88mph.

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    1. I had JRod 9th on my original list, but I am seriously reconsidering having him that high. My thoughts have changed since the fan vote based exactly on the facts you just mentioned.

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      1. What I guess baffles me isn’t so much people voting for him here – IMO there is a clear break between #9 and the rest (Franco being the last prospect who combines high upside with good results), and putting JRod at the top of the rest is defensible – but I just don’t understand the fact that people ignore completely – “don’t care about” – the velocity/scouting reports.

        As I’ve said on prior occasions, for pitching prospects especially, just going by “results” is not a good way to evaluate prospects. In JRod it just seems to me that we have a guy who, even if the scouts are wrong, is a mid rotation guy at best. Factor in the doubts of the scouts and I have a hard time putting him this high.

        That said, I also have a hard time putting untested 2011 draft choices this high, or relief pitchers who don’t project as deserving of high leverage innings, or prospects whose upside is probably solid back up player (e.g., James). Which leaves … can we leave # 10 blank?

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        1. A player that I am becoming more intrigued by, that combines ‘decent’ early results and ‘decent’ upside, is Austin Wright. He also had the pedigree coming out of HS, before struggling in college. I may like his attributes a little more than JRods.
          There is 2nd tier group of pitchers that is very difficult to separate. Those pitchers being JRod, Austin Wright, LBonilla and Lino Martinez for me.

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          2. Again with the continual Greg Maddux comp! He started velo at 91/92 in the late 80s, in his Cub’s early days.

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            1. Every soft-tossing RHP that shows any success is the next Greg Maddux and any LHP that shows success while sitting 83 mph is the next Jamie Moyer.

              Also, as a couple others noted, Maddux sat low 90s in his prime…and threw harder as a prospect.

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            2. This is Greg Freaking Maddux we’re talking about here. I can’t stand the analogies with soft tossing pitcher = the next Greg Maddux.

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        3. Do you really think there are more than a handful of people completely dismissing the JRod scouting reports? He had probably the second best statistical season behind May and we’re rating him as our 10th best prospect in a pretty thin system. And it’s not like he was a college pitcher dominating younger hitters. He was one of the younger pitchers in the FSL.

          I think if anything we’ve been overly cautious in our ranking of him. We don’t have a definitive report on his velocity. It’s also possible he adds a few mph to his fastball as he fills out (listed as 6″4′, 195lbs).

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          1. Very well put Pat! I was just going to post something about his height as I believe being tall is important for a pitcher. Also, RRod was also one of the younger pitchers in Lakewood 2 years ago and dominated older competition as a starter in winter ball a year ago.

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          2. It’s hard to know how many – only a few people explain their votes, and maybe most people voting for him are not ignoring the scouting reports and just don’t explain their votes.

            But you see plenty of people commenting who do ignore the scouting reports entirely, or (worse) invoke the lunatic Maddux comparison (at the risk of restating the obvious), it’s crazy mainly because Maddux had off the charts good command – probably the best ever – whereas JRod is average at best in that regard – and Maddux, while indeed not throwing at 98 mph, had above average velocity, especially in his prime, certainly moreso than JRod.

            Right handers who have excellent deception but nothing else have an upside as mid rotation starters. Moreover, as good as his raw numbers are, even ignoring the scouting reports, don’t screen ace.

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  7. Going with Tyler Greene. I’d bet money that one of the Greene’s is going to be a hot prospect this time next season and my inkling is that its going to be Tyler.

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  8. I voted for T Greene. The small sample size GCL results aren’t enough data with which to base any real projections – but it was, for me anyway, enough to prove that he’s not out of his depth. “They” keep saying he’s a five tool guy. He showed in GCL that he’s at least not a bust out of the gate.

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    2. I went T Greene as well. Give the kid credit for getting signed and coming out to play ball. Reports from off-season have been good as well….

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  9. Jiwan James or Tyson Gillies? Thoughts on who’s the better CF prospect at this point? I’m leaning James because 1) he has actually played the last several seasons and 2) he has a legit excuse for his bat being behind. If the bat ever catches up, watch out. But of course, that’s a massive “if.”

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        1. Doesn’t matter the excuse. The fact is that his bat is way behind.

          For 2012, both Gillies and James will play the season as 23-year olds but Gillies has had greater success in his career. Add in that the Phillies chose to protect Gillies and not James tells me which one the Phillies scouts rate as a greater prospect.

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          1. I think that it could matter that he’s a converted pitcher, because it could provide a legitimate reason for expecting James to be a late-bloomer. He lost development time with the bat compared to your normal CF prospect. So I do think the excuse matters in this case. Or at least it could. Time will tell.

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            1. Whether or not James may eventually become a late-bloomer, the fact is that when ranking him as a prospect, he needs to be rated based on where he is currently when compared to other prospects in the Phillies system.

              When I look at his body of work vs. Gillies, both at the age of 22, I rate Gillies higher based on both overall skills and performance.

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          2. In response to your post below: If you can only rate prospects based on where they are currently, than what is the rationale for people voting the newest draftee’s? If we’re basing our judgments solely on what they’ve been able to accomplish than T. Greene, L. Greene, Quinn, etc. shouldn’t even be on the list. Of course that’s ridiculous but currently they’ve done nothing, or next to nothing.

            I do agree that Gilles should be rated higher based on body of work (I believe Gilles will have an outstanding year btw) but I also think James has plenty of room to grow. I don’t even know if it would be fair to label him a “late bloomer” if he has success becuase he got such a late start in the field.

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            1. The newest draftees are being rated based on their scouting reports since there is very little else to go on. It becomes a question of whether or not you think the potential of a L. Green or T. Green outways the numbers put up by a guy like J. James.

              Is it a case of wishful thinking? yea probably is some cases.

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          3. They didn’t protect James b/c no team in their right mind would’ve selected him, knowing he’d have to stay on the roster all year long. He’s too raw for the Rule V. Phillies correctly gambled there. When the un/protected lists came out, there was a lot of buzz on James. Shows that he gets respect for being a prospect, just too raw for now.

            I like Gillies, bu he’s done nothing for 2 seasons. He’s a guy that should take a big drop in the rankings, and only rise again if he does well in the 1st half of he season.

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            1. So why did the Phillies protect Gillies rather than James? Based on your argument, no team is going to take a guy who has done nothing for 2 seasons.

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            3. So then you agree that Gillies would have been more likely to stay on someone’s 25-man roster because he is the better player?

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            4. 3up, I think you are wrong on this one. Gillies being protected over James doesn’t mean he is the better “prospect”. In this case it means he is more likely to have the abilty to contribute right now to a major league club.
              Heck, Michael Schwimer might have the most “right now” ability in the system. That doesnt make him one of the better prospects.

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            5. VOR, I think Gillies is the better prospect because he is both more advanced AND he has a more complete skillset. If not for the injury issues with Gillies, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.

              I also disagree with the line of arguement that the only reason James wasn’t taken was because he’s too raw of a prospect. He wasn’t taken because he has yet to show the ability to hit for either average or power.

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            1. Well, yea, obviously. Fact remains that Gillies has put up a better season in A-ball than has James and most likely, Gillies will start 2012 at a higher level at the same age.

              It’s interesting that people give James a pass for getting a late start because he was a pitcher but don’t give the same pass to Gillies for missing 2 seasons due to injuries. In the end, they are both at the same age but Gillies is more advanced as a player.

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            2. 3Up – Jiwan’s probably not going to “be a pitcher” again any time soon – Gillies could be injured in the spring and hardly play all year, again. That’s a good reason not to give a pass for an injury.

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            3. B in DC, If Gillies misses more time in 2012 with injuries while James shows improvement, then I will change my opinion of both of them. But as of right now, I’m more confident that Gillies can overcome his injury issues than I am that James will learn to hit.

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    2. Gillies definitely for me. They are both have great defensive range and great arms. Gillies has proven he can hit at high A. His career minor league slash line is 309/403/433. James career slash line is 268/325/365. Gillies (82:35 SB:CS) is a better base-stealer than James (71:40). Gillies is on the Phillies 40-man roster. James isn’t and he was not selected in the Rule 5 draft.

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  10. Not that this is the appropriate spot to vote for him, but when do we start seriously considering Larry Green? The #1 draft pick is getting less votes then middle relievers. I realized he hasn’t played a game yet, but if you look at pure potential he has to be up there at some point. Maybe not quite yet, but he’s getting less votes than Gillies, who has potential, but has little power and cannot stay healthy.

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      1. I voted for him at 10. I don’t understand it. The man love for Tyler Greene because of his projection when you have the best power high school fielder in the draft, with Ryan Howard type projection, still on the board.

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        1. I don’t understand it either. Everybody… Baseball America, Perfect Game, ESPN, etc, rated Larry Greene jr higher than Tyler Greene. But because Tyler Greene played in 17 GCL games, he has suddenly become the better player. Makes little sense to me.

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  11. Gillies. Period. Of course he has been injured. Lost two years. No other player has the potential of making it to AAA and then the Phillies by 2013 than Gillies.

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  14. Julio Rodriguez here. Please add Cameron Rupp. His finish last year showed him to be a significant prospect. I think he will show this year that he will be in the top twenty prospects in our system. I especially like his potential over players we have not seen play professional ball like Larry Greene (injured in the Fall), Roman Quinn, and Mitchell Walding.

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  15. Went with Jiwan. He has shown flashes of being a legit blue chip CF prospect like in July of this past year. He just just needs some more consitency with his game. Perhaps being out of that hot florida sun for 6 years will do him some good.

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  16. I haven’t checked this site in a while and cannot believe that Julio Rodriguez has lasted this long. There certainly aren’t 10 better prospects in the Phillies organization. He gets no respect in the off-season, then goes out an pitches like the #1. Replicating his success at Reading will turn the remaining non-believers.

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  17. I voted Tyler Greene here’s my reasoning:

    Tyler Greene as an 18 year old in the GCL:
    .276/.386/.379 .103 ISO 15.7 BB% 132 wRC+

    Domonic Brown as an 18 year old in the GCL:
    .214/.292/.265 .051 ISO 9.2 BB% 81 wRC+

    Jimmy Rollins as an 17-18 year old in the Class Rookie Appalachian League:
    .238/.351/.285 .047 ISO 13.8 BB%

    Now, all of these are small samples. However, I see greatness in this kid. 5 tool potential definitely.

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    2. LOL. Interesting that you chose to compare Jimmy Rollins, then only show BB% without including K%.
      Jimmy Rollins played rookie ball at age 17, played in 49 games and struck out 20 times in 200 plate appearances.
      Tyler Greene played rookie ball at age 18, played in 17 games and struck out 23 times in 70 plate appearances.

      I like Tyler Greene too, but you have to show his numbers in correct context.

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      1. It’s also an interesting cherrypicking of careers since I could just as easily find 18 year-olds in rookie ball who put up better numbers but ultimately went nowhere.

        And as you point out, we are talking about a sample size of 17 games!!! Hell, Brian Pointer has a better year on the team with a bigger sample size. Granted, Brian was 19.

        I like Tyler Greene’s potential too but lets not pretend that voting for him at this point is based on anything other than scouting reports and the hope that he will become a good player at a position of need in the organization

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        1. amen, finally some perspective. For a while it seemed like everyone was drinking the Tyler Greene koolaide. Give the kid a chance to show what he can do over a full season

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          1. You have been a Hater for many post’s now! Tyler Greene will make you a believer and has way more upside as a well rounded player than many of the ones you have promoted.

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            1. Than he should have held out for more than 350K my friend. Sad to say, the vast majority of prospects’ biggest payday is their draft bonus.

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        2. Pointer hit .002 pts higher. He doesn’t run well or have a good throwing arm. Tyler Greene plays SS , Runs Very Well and has a Gun. Pointer is a LF only player . Please compare that!

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          1. Most of the 5 tools for 5-tool players are offensive abilities. You want defense before offense? Look no further than the number 5 of this list.

            Also, all players’ upside is the best player ever, and their downside is a bust that gives us nothing. Their skills and results, however, are what change the odds of realistically guessing what they will become. Read the second one. Results. There are none for Tyler Greene yet. He could be the best player in the world. He could be the worst. 17 games in the GCL tells us nothing, it just helped he keep from getting rusty.

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          2. What ??? I’ve only seen Pointer on youtube but he was 8 for 8 in SB attempts (most on the team). Pointer also hit 6 HR’s in just 169 AB’s. Your attempts to shoot down Pointer to promote Tyler Greene is all wrong.

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          3. Funny part is that I don’t think that Pointer is a better prospect than Greene. Just pointing out the folly of citing stats from 17 games in rookie ball as a reason to vote for anyone.

            But I agree. There is no reason to trash Pointer as a way to make a case for Greene.

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    3. Please stop comparing small sample sizes. Everyone sounds like a bunch a Yankees fans here.
      Look at Dante Bichette Jr.’s GCL stats from this year.
      AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS .342 196 33 67 17 3 3 47 99 30 41 3 3 .446 .505 .951

      51st overall pick in 2011 and after 196 AB’s fans are already calling him the heir to Jeter.

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  18. I voted for Larry Greene again. I will trust that our scouting reports were accurate and that this kid can become a big time power hitter. Will that happen? Who knows but I can flaws in every other choice at this pount also. I have JRod next and Tyler Greene after that before Bonilla, Quinn, Walding, Gillies and James. That takes the list to 17, after which there is a big drop. I don’t have Wright and Morgan until later. I keep thinking that one guy who could surprise and jump up this list next year is Rupp. We’ll see…
    Btw, lots of these guys are already in Florida working out every day. Also, they’re having a 5 day mini camp starting next Sunday.

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    1. Murray…Phantasy Camp starts on Thursday,19 Jan….all five field will have participants–total of 140 paid, the maximum number Are you saying the camp ends before Sunday on Saturday the 21st?

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      1. Yup, Phantasy Camp starts tomorrow. However, I read where Austin Hyatt mentioned that they’re having a 5 day camp starting Sunday. My guess is that they’re just checking in Sunday afternoon and won’t hit the fields until Monday, after the Phantasy Campers are gone.

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  19. Voted for Larry Greene Jr. As we can see from last year’s major league season–and not just the Phillies’–power numbers are down and quality sluggers are hard to come by. He’s a long way away, but as one of the best pure power hitters in the draft last year, he’s certainly going to be fun to watch for the next few years. I thought about Quinn here, but speed seems to be one tool that we have a surplus of at this point, with James and Gillies both still on the board. I’m not sure what to make of Tyler Greene. They took a bunch of shortstops in the draft last year, but I’m still waiting to see which one I like the best. LGJr stands apart from the rest of the list in my mind.

    For all the reasons stated above, I’m still steamed they gave up Domingo Santana as the PTBNL, but I guess that’s water under the bridge at this point.

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  20. Gillies will be my vote until he gets voted on. I have seen him ,if healthy he is the real deal. Too many people are picking words not players . You should have at least seen the guy.

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  23. if schwimmer only got to throw to Right hand batters i’d think about voting for him, but otherwise, i’m not sure why he’s on this list

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  24. Bonilla is next for me. I like his track record. I’m not ready to rank these guys who have few innings or at bats ahead of a proven prospect

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  25. Bonilla needs a good year to get in the top ten. Greater stamina and above all vast improvement with men on. Check with me next winter.
    Gillies (pure and simple) “show me”!
    I went with JR with my finger crossed.

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  26. I know that I may be reaching a bit here, but i’m going with Larry Greene here due to his off the charts power potential, which is something that seems to be getting more rare these days. He may not ever be that great defensively, but I am hopeful he can be like Ryan Howard or maybe even better if his plate discipline improves more so he’s able to have good pitch recognition and take more walks.

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