2012 Reader Top 30, #11

Just as Julio Rodriguez has breezed through the minors, he breezed through the voting at #10, comfortably beating out a tightly grouped trio to round out the first portion of our top 30. Carlos Tocci received the most write-in support, so he will be added to the voting for #11. It will be interesting to see which way the vote breaks at #11 considering Tyler Greene, Jiwan James and Larry Greene Jr were separated by just 2 votes. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP

Check below for #11

116 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #11

  1. In the 5 years that I have seen top 30 lists posted here, there has always been 1st round picks placed in the top 10. Savery for ’08, Collier for ’09, Biddle for ’11. Even on the ’10 list, when they didn’t have a 1st round pick, Colvin was voted into the top ten. Current 1st round picks, by definition, are top prospects. Not sure why this year is different from all other years.
    Larry Greene jr for #11.

    1. I agree that LGJ is not getting enough attention here. Probably because TG had 70 ABs and LGJ had zero. But if the Phils paid him $1m, there must be something there worth considering.

    2. Keep in mind, every player you named had a small but promising minor league sample to his name. Greene Jr. hasn’t done that yet and his game is considered to have some big flaws. That’s enough to keep me from voting for him so far.

      1. Colvin pitched exactly 2 innings, before being deemed a top 10 prospect.
        Pitching in one game for 2 innings is not a significant sample, IMO.

  2. i know cameron rupp is not a scout but here is a solid report on bonilla. who in my opinion should be in top 10. stuff and results have been there since he was in the dsl.

    whttp://www.csnphilly.com/07/06/11/Bonilla-Making-A-Name-For-Himself-At-Lak/landing_onthepharm.html?blockID=539572&feedID=2571

    1. We’ve already heard about the plus changeup, but 93-94 fastball? He needs some more attention. I know everybody loves the toolsy shortstop, but I’ll take the toolsy pitcher who’s already had some success.

    1. Honestly haven’t looked into him that much. But if his change-up is a plus-pitch, we may have something here. The fastball seems good, but not plus. If he can learn to throw a cutter it would do wonders for him, I think.

      I’ll keep an eye on him from now on.

  3. I voted for Larry Greene again, but would be fine with Austin Wright or Tyler Greene too. I am a little surprised Wright is not on the list. I think there is a great chance he ends the year in the top 10.

    1. I wrote in Austin Wright as well. Solid scouting report and excellent results. I think it is possible he starts the season in AA (a la Worley). The AA rotation will most likely have May, Pettibone, JRod and Cloyd. He will have to beat out Colvin, Rosenberg, Buchanan, Brummett, Kissock? Hmm…maybe not. Anyway, I voted for him here.

      1. You’re forgetting JC Ramirez, he’ll be in that rotation. Naylor, if healthy, mght grab a rotation spot there too. Colvin will start at CWater. I think Wright will start at Lakewood, not too many rotation spots open at CWater or Reading.

        1. JC will be in AAA or in a bullpen somewhere, no? Isn’t this his last option year already? If he’s not starting at AAA and showing what he can do, then he should be in the pen somewhere, (maybe at AA, maybe AAA), showing what he can do there.

        2. I think JC will be in the bullpen somewhere (like B in DC said). I forgot about Naylor, but if he is healthy I bet he is in AAA. I agree that the most likely outcome for Colvin is for him to be in C’water, but he will at least have a chance to make AA if he has a lights-out ST. Wright finished the year at Lakewood and was excellent there. I would be surprised to see him back there to start the year.

          I think C’water’s rotation to start the year is Colvin, Biddle, Bonilla, Buchanan, and Wright. Claypool could be in the mix, but I bet he does not start the year in the rotation there. Anyway, it is at least possible Wright starts the year in AA. It will obviously depend upon his ST performance. One poster here who actually saw him pitch (I have not) did not give him a strong review, so who knows.

          1. There 9is one name I haven’t seen yet, although I think he will be on Clearwater’s staff. He is Ervis Manzanillo, a lefty with outstanding stuf, who is trying to repeat his delivery often enough to be outstanding, He turned in some great games last year, but was inconsistent. I’m thinking he will be much better this year. He certainly will not repeat Lakewood, but Wright might get some innings there this year.

            1. Why would Manzanillo, who struggled in Lakewood, certainly get a promotion whereas Wright who was excellent in Lakewood, go back for some more?

          2. Garner may end up in Clearwater as well. He’ll need to be pushed a little since he’s a bit old for low A.

            1. That thought had occurred to me as well, but he is still pretty raw. I bet he starts out at Lakewood to continue to refine his offerings. Wright is much more polished.

  4. Went Gillies here also considered Bonilla strongly. I would not argue T Greene here he has multiple tools + make-up and has a small body of work proving his value.

    I have to question strongly L Greene and James. L Greene has 1 tool=Power and we all know the track record of these types is not so good. James a converted Pitcher has a career .268/.325/.690 OPS. Sure he is 22 and plays premium defense I’d put him above L Green but not T Greene, and not Gillies (.309/.403/.836 OPS)

    1. I think we are being a tad rough on LGJ. BA ranked him 75th in the country, he was considered a 2nd round pick, Wolever called him a “very good athlete”. While power is his #1 tool, let’s not assume it is his only tool. Also, apparently it is a top shelf tool (i.e. most power in the 2011 draft).

      1. Agree on all counts. I think a lot of people reading the scouting report without having seen him are imagining Ryan Howard, but the kid’s only 19 and played the outfield.

        1. What are the chances that LGJ or any other player in the Phils farm system now will win one MVP award and finish in the top 10 in MVP voting five other times in his first six full big-league seaons? A Ryan Howard comp can’t possibly be a bad thing for a prospect, can it?

          1. Your point is well received, but some people think Howard sucks… the lack of baserunning/defense and high k rates drives some people crazy. Additionally, productivity has declined while his pay has gone up, generally a bad combination. That said, there is no denying, his HR totals from 2006-2009 were a significant reason for the Phillies sucess and as such he will go down as one of the best phillies players of all time.

            1. Its not that he sucks, its that if he had a better pre-game work ethic and a better baseball mind to understand what pitchers are trying to do to him, he could be the best power hitter in the history of the game.

        2. Don’t get me wrong. I am going to pull for him big time and hope he is a star. I just have a few guys ahead of him at this point but would fully expect him to break the top 10 at some point later this season.

        1. That is an awkward screen name you chose, since Roman Quinn was ranked #73 by BA and TG was ranked #83.

          Anyway, my post was not meant to bring down any of our other draftees, more to highlight LGJ.

    2. DMAR, went with Gillies too but only because he has reached AA ball already where the others did not. I don’t know why but I have a good feeling about the Phillies Farm System and the ability to produce solid players.

      1. You have to be kidding. What points do you gain by failing at AA and then regressing?
        Maybe in the sense of Micheal Jordan reached AA as well as everyone who bought a ticket.

  5. Pushing for bonilla here. here is info from baseball america chat.

    Your opinions of Lakewood’s Lisalberto Bonilla? He put together some real eye-opening starts this year. Was he in the 11-20 range?

    Matt Forman: Several questions about Lisalberto Bonilla, who makes the All-Name Team… To answer the question, Bonilla just missed making the top 10, and he was included in several early iterations of the list. After moving to the rotation, there were some outings last year where Bonilla performed among the best pitchers in the South Atlantic League. He shows flashes of three above-average pitches: a 91-94 mph fastball, a 78-82 slider and a 82-84 changeup. The change is Bonilla’s best secondary pitch, but the Phillies told him to use it sparingly during starts in order to work off his fastball and rely his slider, which should help his development in the long run. As a result, it was difficult to find scouts who saw Bonilla use all three pitches in game action; several reported back that his changeup was a plus offering in warm-ups but wondered why he didn’t use it. But Bonilla is very athletic, repeats his delivery well and has a loose arm. If that slider continues progressing, Bonilla has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.

    1. If Phillie’s coaches/management tell Bonilla to ‘sparingly use’ his change-up, to further develop his pitching acumen…I am wondering what they have instructed Julio Rodiguez in regards to his reportoire.

  6. I made a point on T Greene yesterday that I think we saw at least enough to know he’s ready to perform at some level in the minors. He’ll be ready to play somewhere in 2012, whether at GCL again or Williamsport, (or maybe a start in Lakewood and bump back to Williamsport when they start). L Greene could be so overmatched when he gets to camp that he needs the year just to tune up his swing, work on his glove, etc., may barely see the field, and T Greene could be starting at SS in Lakewood before L Greene takes his first AB outside of Florida. That’s why I rank T this high and not L.

    1. I had also heard that Larry had a leg issue, nothing major, but it was preventing him from getting off-season reps – one of the reasons I put him below T. Greene. Anyone have more information or even an update on Larry? Hoping what I heard was just scuttlebutt….

  7. Looks like it could be Greene versus Greene here. This is going to be confusing going forward. Couldn’t one of them have the decency to drop the superfluous final “e”?

    I voted for the Big Greene again.

    Weirdly, I’m actually more excited about the guys we’ll be voting on 11-20 than I was about the ones who are on the list 2-10. Lots of interesting talent out of last year’s draft–I have a feeling this list could look a LOT different by midseason.

    1. I think you are right. The system is in transition. I expect a lot of movement throughout the top 30 and perhaps even guys who don’t make the top 30 zooming up into the top 10 by late season. Honestly, more than any other prior year that I can remember, I just have no idea what to make of the system as a whole (with the exception of the AA staff, which will be outstanding). While I am convinced that a large sub-set of the players will make the major leagues, there could be 4 or 5 impact players (all-stars) at the big league level or there could be none. There could be 8 or 9 solid regulars or there could be only 1 or 2. I have no idea.

    2. I completely agree with this statement. The position players drafted in 2011 have so much in potential upside that some of them will, I suspect, pass people currently in the system in terms of everyone’s expectations. The real question, however, is which ones will produce encouraging results and which will fail in their first full season. At this point we are mostly working on even more conjecture than normal. (But it’s fun.)

    3. “Weirdly, I’m actually more excited about the guys we’ll be voting on 11-20 than I was about the ones who are on the list 2-10.”

      Same. There’s a lot of players with high potential who haven’t shown much yet in the system. I’m much more excited to follow them than the likes of Galvis, Aumont, De Fratus, and Rodriguez who don’t project to be highly valuable players in the bigs. Sure most of them won’t pan out but it’s fun watching potential.

    4. The system will absolutely look different by midseason. There are several names already voted up there who simply don’t have the ceiling of a top 10 prospect. A few of these guys like J-Rod, DeFratus, and Galvis are probably 2 star prospects (with 3 star upside) whose relative proximity to the big leagues allows us to look past that low ceiling.

      I’m a little confused that DeFratus got early support but Schwimer has gained little momentum. There’s no doubt that DeFratus is a better prospect, but Schwimer is quite comparable in terms of total package. I’m not saying that Schwimer deserves to be looked at right now, because he doesn’t, but it’s an odd double standard.

      1. I think it is because in small samples JDF had a better ERA in the majors than Schwimer. Also, people tout JDF’s stuff, which is contrary to what we hear about Schwim. But I have tried to make the same argument about Savery – is he all that different from JDF?

        1. Savery appears to be more of a lefty specialist, while JDF’s ceiling could be set up man. Big difference in ranking.

  8. Jiwan James, still has tools to dream on, I would give him one more year before giving up but if it clicks in AA he could become a monster.

    1. Thanks. That is exactly what I think and why I voted for James in this spot. I think this will be his year — better OBP, better, in steals, better BA, and more power shown. I am rooting for him to be in the top ten next year.

      1. I’m voting for James here as well. Hoping he puts it all together. Next year he’ll either be one of the top prospects or out of the top 30 all together. I don’t see much middle ground for him.

  9. I voted for Bonilla. Nobody really stands out as having significant playing time in a full season league, doing well, and being healthy. I am struggling where to put Gillies. If healthy, which he hasn’t been, he is a major talent, but he is as iffy as the signees from the last draft and international who have yet to play. James is great D, but another disappointing year with the bat. Hyatt has eaten up every level he’s played at, including doing well at Reading, which isn’t easy for a starting pitcher, despite lacking the high ceiling. Pointer has good numbers, but in GCL and repeating GCL as a 19-year old after a brief taste last season. The Phillies have tried their best HS kids at Lakewood in their first full season. I was going to say that I’ll probably vote Hyatt next, but given the way this vote is going, I’ll probably have to keep voting Bonilla for a while. It saves research for a while. I like Walker and Tyler Green and the slugging Greene also. I’ve pretty much mentioned my top 20.

    1. I think I have Bonilla next. My thought process is similar to your own (except Hyatt’s not on the radar). Tocci’s drawing strong consideration at this point as well. I really don’t know what I’m doing after Bonilla and Tocci. Probably Greene Jr. or Rupp.

  10. I had Bonilla next on my top 30 but like a Ouija board, my mouse moved to Ty Greene and made me click. If Ty doesn’t win this round, I’ll try to beat that old black magic and click on Bonilla.

  11. Voted Jiwan James. Most of the other candidates have tools but haven’t been tested in the minors yet. James has tools as well. I don’t think his batting performance is bad. It’s league average. He’s still age appropriate for the league he’s in. Best case scenario for James IMO is a Garry Maddox comp. Same height and build, topped out at 14 HRs in the majors, didn’t walk much, valued due to speed and defense, and both missed some development time in the minors. James’ floor is Brian Hunter.

    I’m wary about Tyler Greene. We’ve read some nice scouting reports but I don’t think he’s earned a high spot yet. He was 46th in the GCL in OPS, and 44 of the players above him had more plate appearances. There’s only so much you can gleam from 70 plate appearances.

    1. I’m still rooting for James, but … two points:

      (1) Floor is Brian Hunter? Honestly I’d say that that is closer to his ceiling. Maybe 10% chance he exceeds that. Most likely a career back-up. Well … actually that is complicated by the fact that James could be as “good” as Hunter and still a career back-up. That is, Hunter was probably miscast as a regular.

      (2) I find it somewhat ironic that you are touting a toolsie guy like James while being wary about T. Greene. Sure, 70 PA is a small sample – but in a comparison with James, maybe that cuts the other way, since James, despite 1300 PA, has still not really demonstrated that his “tools” are translatable into performance.

    2. I am rooting for Jiwan James, but he really has no successful comparables. Brian Hunter is not his floor. That is what Jiwan James should be shooting for.
      In searching for a player with comparable skills and numbers as a minor leaguer, I found Doug Glanville, as someone he could shoot for, but even he had better numbers.
      One thing that may help James kick it up a gear is scrapping switch hitting and concentrating on LH. Once his power potential kicks in, maybe the Ks won’t look so bad.

  12. I’m just curious…who here has read any thing by scouts or baseball writers that has included any talk about Tyler Greene when talking about our minor league system and our top prospects? You won’t find any because he isn’t as highly projected as Larry Greene.

    1. That’s a good point, but the scouting reports don’t seem to have many bad things to say. I think it’s a simple matter of picking the first rounder over the 11th rounder. No reason to pick purely on round here.

  13. Tylor Greene is this year’s Zack Collier. Everyone is projecting their hopes on him based on the hype received during the draft.

      1. Really. I don’t know one way or the other. Most of it seemed factual but then it was a hollywood script.

        I like that it paid homage to Bill James and whatever your opinion of Sabermetrics I think it made a good argument for not being so narrow minded when evaluating a player. I also thought it made a good point to say you just never know when sitting across the table from a premier prospect if its going to work out.

      2. The book took some liberties with the story. The movie adapted that book. It was only based off a true story. It was not a documentary.

  14. Have you read the interview with Mitchell Walding on PhightingOn.com. Good article,sounds like this kid is getting ready. 6’4 & 205 lb..I think this kid is going to surprise everyone.This guy is your true 5 tool short stop.Or third baseman which ever works out.My vote goes with Walding.

    1. I AGREE 100% Definitely 5 tools. Hit the heck out of the ball at instrux ! They had him working out with the older guys quite a bit.

  15. LGJ is not Howard, he likely doesn’t have quite as much power, and likely isn’t nearly the oaf on the bases/in the field. However, I do believe he has a higher ceiling then any of the other picks taken last year. And may have one of the highest ceilings of any player in the system. If he reaches that, his average is .285 / 40 Hr’s / +90 points for walks in his OBP, that is a pretty damn good for a left fielder with what i consider an outside shot at right. Easily enough to make the AS game. I just don’t believe Tyler G has nearly that ceiling, and that’s why LGJ got my vote.

  16. I’d be ok with LGJr but went with Jiwan James. I’m concerned (in so far as I can actually be concerned with a PP fan poll) about James getting pushed down so far. He was #8 on BA for a reason. New toys are fun, and James has some obvious deficiencies, but he’s shown progress with the bat, is recognized as a plus defender in CF, and it was just last year that Kevin Goldstein had him as the best athlete in the system and a potential break-out player. He didn’t break out, but he also didn’t fold after advancing a level, so he really shouldn’t be below this spot, and should probably be a bit higher.

    C’mon people… Tyler Green struck out over 30% of the time against what amounts to very good high school pitching. He plummeted in the draft and signed for 375K for a reason. He should bwe top 20, and maybe 15, but not here.

    1. Pease ask all the Coaches and the IF Rover at the GCL and Fall Instructs who they think will be in Lakewood this year for the 11′ Draft. It is Tyler Greene.

      1. I think that is great and I am really excited to see what TG can do. In fact, that would be a prospect-laden left side of the infield (Franco and TG).

        Still, that does not mean he is a better prospect than JJ. JJ has been vetted more by national scouts and has shown some improvement (“some” being the key word) at bat. Meanwhile, he is a plus fielder. I have JJ at #12 on my list.

    2. Ask the Coaches and IF Rover who is the Best Bet out of the 2011 Draft to get a Lakewood Assignment and is more Pro ready! It is Tyler Greene. That says more than your bloggers

      1. You’ve asked the coaches and IF Rover who the best bet out of the 2011 draft is to get a Lakewood Assignment? If so please share your correspondance. If not stop making wild claims. 70 AB does not make him a more valuable prospect or make him any more likely to start at a higher level than any of the other guys from the 2011 draft. I realize you have a man-crush but we have a lot of talented, high ceiling guys from last year’s draft.

      2. Yeah, you say he is more pro ready,you are probably one of the same bloggers who said he was going to sign for a million bucks.Remember all those blogs.He is going to sign in the second round,he is going to get $1,000,000.00,he is the best 2011 drafty.YADA,YADA,YADA.

  17. JJ was left off 40man roster. top prospects usually are protected. no one even took him in the rule 5 draft. this guy is a 4A guy not a prospect.

    1. No one took him because despite the potential he isn’t major league ready yet. Players taken in the rule V have to stay on the major league roster all season. So rather than take a flier on a player who has great tools but won’t contribute at the major league level, teams chose not to take him. Roster spots are precious after all.

      1. Not only would he have likely not contributed much at all, but he also would have lost a year of playing everyday, which he already has in his career while trying to pitch. There was a lot of talk during the meetings about him maybe being taken in the rule 5 anyway, and it was played as almost a surprise when he was not…how much of that was nonsense and how much was real is hard to say in the rumor as fact world of the MLB winter meetings, but it does seem like the Phils made the calculated risk that no one else would make the decision to park JJ on their bench all year.

        1. If his tools are that good that you guys think that he is a top prospect. Then phillies officials were wrong to leave him off the roster. But the other 29 teams agreed with the phillies. He is a nice minor league player who is young and still has some upside but his prospect days are over. It is a long shot thaty this guy becomes a ML reguler. May get a cup of coffee or be an up and down guy but we are trying to rank phuture phillies who we think will have impact. Apparently the philles don’t think that because they did not protect him

          1. “Top prospect” and “11th behind some relievers and low ceiling starters” aren’t the same thing.

  18. I don’t understand why anyone would vote for Schwimer at this point, he shouldn’t even be on the ballot until about 25 or 30

    1. I didn’t vote for Schwim but there are a couple of reasons to have him on the ballot here. 1st, if you’ve read his blog on this site, you know he’s an extremely intelligent guy. Also if you read his blogs from a couple of years ago, you can see how far he’s come. He works through every pitch. He’s talked about making the wrong pitch and figuring out how to not make that mistake again. Second, he’s improved each and every year. He’s taken what he’s learned and what the coaches tell him to work on and he applies it. Third, he’s a giant guy. You can’t teach a guy to be tall. He knows that if he pitches downhill, there are going to be some right-handers who might just pee their pants. 4th, he’s been to the show. He wants to stay in the show. He’ll work as hard as a guy can work to ensure he’s in the show. Most of the guys being picked around these slots are either guys with lots of potential but not much track record or guys who have a track record and have potential but also enough warts to keep them from being rated higher.

      Schwim is a reliever. He’s not going to be made into a starter and as such he can work on the skill set needed to be a very good or great reliever. I think he’s at the very least a ROOGY but if he improves again this year you might see him progressing to be a guy you can depend on in the 7th inning and possibly 8th inning. Next year’s improvement could make him a big time reliever. Big potential has never won a single game or even had a single hit. Potential is nothing until a guy’s proven something.

      1. I don’t disagree with anything you said here and respect the perspective, but right now he is a reliever who fits more in the middle innings than he does the late innings and has difficulty getting LH’s out. Based on what he has shown to date, he shouldn’t be anywhere near the top 10. Having said that, I fully agree that he is likely to outperform beacuse of many of the intangibles you listed above.

  19. Jiwan James – tools matter and he is much closer to the big leagues than most of the others on the list.

  20. I went with Lisalberto Bonilla.

    I have Larry Greene, Jr. about 4 slots down from here, behind Gillies, Wright and Quinn.

    I’m happy we picked Larry Greene, Jr. but without any pro ball behind him I can’t help but wonder if he’s the next Michael Durant. I just need to see more at this point to know what I’m voting for. I have faith in our scouts but I’d rather not vote on faith alone.

    Choosing blindly between Quinn with top-shelf speed vs. Greene, Jr. with top-shelf power, I have to give the nod to Quinn because top-shelf speed cannot be neutralized the same way top-shelf power can. Elite speed never slumps and shows up big on defense, so if Quinn and Greene both struggle with poor contact and on-base skills, Quinn would be the more consistent contributor because his elite speed would still come into play. In other words, based on tools alone LG, Jr. has a higher ceiling than Quinn but also a much lower floor.

    I’ll have a better idea where to rank the new draftees after this season but for now it’s essentially guesswork. If people use draft position and bonus to vote I think that’s legitimate, too. Personally, I tend to go with my own eyes first, then pro stats, then scouting reports. I don’t put too much into draft position or bonus, though, because there are always other factors besides just talent when it comes to the draft board and bonus money.

    1. I follow your reasoning, but top shelf speed does slump under certain conditions. One is called a hamstring injury. Ask top-shelf speedster Tyson Gillies how debilitating leg injuries can be. My point I’d just that there are no sure things, and it seems like power is a rarer tool than speed, at least in this system, with James, Gillies, and so on still on the board.

      1. True, but you could also say LG Jr.’s big bulky body is more likely to break down than a slim speedster like Quinn. Personally, I don’t really hold injury potential against anyone unless a guy is injury prone or permanently damaged. I docked Gillies a few spots for long term health issues but otherwise I don’t consider injury potential too much because it is next to impossible to predict.

        Also, I agree that speed is more common than power but the elite speed Quinn has is ultra rare. Put another way, I’d go with very good power over very good speed but by all accounts Quinn’s speed is in a class by itself and so I feel he deserves a boost since it has more ways to play up with all else being equal. I’m thinking Vince Coleman.

        I’m probably splitting hairs, but aren’t we all?

  21. Every prospect needs a fan. Slot a guy where you will but I don’t care what BA says, I don’t care what Wolever says, I don’t care that they paid 1 guy $1 Million and another $300K. You just don’t know what you have until you get them playing. Let us not forget Hewitt.

    Not to mention I think its harder to be the $1 Million guy and a ton more pressure.

    If one of these guys were the top 5-15 in the draft maybe. Yeah I think they all belong top 20 but I’m not gonna get to excited they didn’t make top 10.

    1. But BA ranked them that high, Wolever said what he said (whatever that was), and he got $1mil because he was playing. You’re going to draw a line between him playing high school / showcase circuit ball and him playing in the Gulf Coast league? What substantive difference can you draw there?

      Let us not forget… oh gosh, I’ve already forgotten his name… D’arby Myers (just looked it up), who created such hysterics 4 or 5 years ago with 136 dreamy at bats in the GCL.

      100 at bats in the GCL is just another data point, but to any rational, discerning person, $1mil dollars, what BA says, and what Marty Wolever says, are far more meaningful.

      1. Yes. I do think, though, that this presents us with a real dilemma – fact is, the beta on almost any prospect who has less than (say) 700 minor league PAs is quite high. Which under normal circumstances means that ranking such prospects in the organizational top 10 (barring the “can’t miss” prospects that are never around when the Phillies draft) is IMO problematic.

        But what do you do when an organization is (temporarily) relatively barren of high ceiling prospects with significant minor league experience? I don’t know, but I can see it both ways.

  22. It’s Austin Wright time. He’s less than a year older than Bonilla: their stats are very comparable and he’s a big lefty who’s had good scouting reports. He could be sniffing the top 5 next year with a good season.

  23. I voted for Larry Greene last time, so i’m voting for him again here. Obviously he hasn’t done much since being drafted, but his power potential along with his status as the Phillies top pick last year has to put him in the discussions as a top 15 prospect AT LEAST.

  24. Looking over the discussion so far it seems like this iis the point things start to get a little contentious. Do you go with the guy with huge potential coming off a freak injury that took over a year to correctly diagnose (Gilles), the guy with all the tools in the world hoping his bat catches up with the rest of his skills (James), the first pick with huge power potential (Greene Jr.), or the 5-tool guy who’s the flavor of the month after 70 AB’s (T.Greene)? I really don’t think any answer is wrong, with list like these it usually comes down to how you personally look at prospects.

    I went with Gilles. Though he didn’t light up the AFL, from all accounts he still showed plus defense and while he showed his rust with the bat he also showed he hasn’t lost his eye, getting on base at a nice clip. Just my opinion but I think this is the guy who’s going to make the biggest jump on this list by mid-season. I can see why people would vote for either of the Greene’s but I’d like to see something besides a scouting report before making any real judgement on them.

    1. Hope you’re right on Gillies.
      After waiting for him to get beyond his leg injuries for the better part of two seasons, it seems that he has to do it or get off the pot in ’12…with no more recurrences of health problems with a main part of his talents: his legs. It is ironic that his game-legs–a large part of his appeal–have been his barrier. The rust at the plate is worrisome and we know he will be working on that thoroughly in ST.

      I’d love to see him break well from the gate at the season’s beginning which would give him and us wide smiles. Should all that come together we might have a serious CF prospect, Vic’s own contract being up at the end of the coming season.

  25. How about a SS. That is 6″3″ and ran a 6.37 60 yard dash at the PG National. That threw 91 mph across the IF. That was in the HR Derby Final. Whos HS Team won the 5A State Championship in Florida were he hit 4th and made 0 errors in the Playoffs. That signed with the Phillies early because he is confident he will get on the 40 Man Roster quicker that way withour regard to how much money he could have gotten. Ty is the most confident kid I know and he will be a MLB Allstar!

    1. He’s got big time potential. Let’s hope he realizes it. Confidence is great, results are better.

  26. I went with Tyson Gillies here, but it could have been a number of others.
    It’s been a couple of years since he was healthy, but none of those issues should be long-term.

    He looked AWEFULLY good in ST for the Phils when he first came over and before the unfortunate series of events derailed the last two years.

    Clearly this is a VERY Critical year for him but I like his chances.

  27. Bonilla, Wright, James, TGreene, Walding, LGreene, and even Pointer–throw a blanket over them.

    I like TGreene here myself, but could live with any of the others–it’s a matter of taste at this point.

    BTW, there were reports that LGreene was really overmatched in instructs (I think from a commenter here). Hope they were wrong, but I’m cautious about him because of them.

    Wright needs to be on the list.

    1. And there’s an old saying that you can’t steal 1b. Quinn is fast but we have no idea if he has the ability to get on base.

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