2012 Reader Top 30, #9

Moving right along. Justin De Fratus takes the 8th spot, edging out Maikel Franco and Julio Rodriguez. All of the write-in votes were split, but I’ll put Mitchell Walding back on in place of De Fratus since he previously received write-in votes.

As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP

Check below for #9

77 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #9

  1. Franco here. I have T Greene next. Showed he can handle himself in GCL last year. He’s probably the only 2011 HS kid I will vote for, just because he has a sample of at least enough size to show he wasn’t completely overmatched by similar competition. That plus scouting, and he’s worth a vote. L Greene might crack the list, just based on scouting of his power. Other than that, I will wait on some results for the rest of the HS guys.

  2. Took Franco again, but J-Rod is making me think about my rankings a bit. I have Pettibone #3 based on gains in stuff, solid results, and likelihood that he’s a back of the rotation pitcher who’s already touching that ceiling (in others, close to MLB ready). Aside from improving stuff, that description also matches J-Rod. And I have him #10 on the list.

    Is stuff/ceiling worth 7 spots in the rankings? Granted J-Rod looks more like a swingman than Pettibone, but you can use a lot of the same language to describe their overall package.

  3. I went Franco.

    The top 10 looks pretty much set:
    01. Trevor May, RHP
    02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
    03. Sebastian Valle, C
    04. Brody Colvin, RHP
    05. Freddy Galvis, SS
    06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
    07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
    08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
    *09. Maikel Franco, 3B/Julio Rodriguez, RHP
    *10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP/Maikel Franco, 3B

    Not as good as some previous years but I think there’s alot of young high upside talent that will be in GCL/Lakewood/Clearwater.
    I think projecting 11-30 on this site will be the craziest yr yet.

    1. It’s all upside though. We have a couple middling, proximity type prospects, but the vast majority of the system has little to no track record. This list definitely doesn’t enjoy the depth of previous seasons.

      1. agreed 100%. Everyone was either in single-A and has a good ceiling or was in AAA and has a low ceiling. Hopefully the rotation in AA will show us something this year.

  4. General discussion matter…..prospect dubious subject…..Y. Cespedes strikes out three times in first game in DWL..must be rust…these PAs will not be included in his next video.

        1. But if he performs well, it would also alleviate some concerns teams might be having about making a big offer.

          Right now all we know is that his camp is floating huge numbers, we don’t know that teams are willing to pay that huge number.

      1. Agreed, even with a great performance he’d be unlikely to find the money/yrs he’s looking for. Rust or no rust though, if he fails to perform in the DWL he’ll lose millions, tens of millions perhaps

        1. Heard agent wants him under a MLB contract before 1 Feb…8/9 teams are evaluating him…Phillies being one. DWL is nearing the end of its season….’catch 22’…does well in comp market value stays high…downside like you say is huge if he plays poorly.

  5. Austin Wright should be on this list, I think. He outclassed the NYP league after only 1 year out of junior college, and was quickly promoted to Lakewood. His K Rate is good and held up after his promotion, BB rate is acceptable, not great, HR rate is low, (though we know Williamsport stadium is a pitcher’s park). Big lefty, (MiLB.com says 6’4″, 235).

    Also, his MILB pic is atrocious. That’s all I know about him. Anyone know anything about his picthes, i.e. velocity, curve/slide/change/etc.?

    1. I like Wright a lot too. I have him ahead of half the guys on the current voting list above. This was his scouting report (BA) from before the draft: He has never quite fulfilled his promise, but he’s still likely to be drafted in the first 10 rounds because of his size (6-foot-4, 234 pounds) and his fastball, which at times sits in the low 90s, touching 94. His curveball gives him another average pitch to attack hitters. He threw more strikes this season than he had in junior college, but they weren’t always quality strikes, and SEC hitters batted .293 against him.

      1. SEC hitters did a lot better against him that NYP and SAL did. I wonder how much the higher-level coaching he got after he signed helped him out. Interesting they say “at times” sits low 90s…curious. Other times he must sits 95-96??? Right??? Right???

        May have to rethink having him ahead of JRod and Bonilla, for now.

        I guess I should just suck it up and pay for a BA subscription.

    2. I saw Wright pitch in Lakewood and he’d looked horrible. Got 1 swinging strike all game. Location was horrible and breaking pitch was high and over plate. Ge got hammered. Even outs were hard hit. It was only one game, but I left completely unimpressed. His stat line at end of the game did not reflect how he pitched.

  6. Franco here.

    Julio likely at no. 10 followed by LGJ to start the middle 10. Colvin would have fallen in the 9-11 range for me

    1. I agree. Colvin is 8th on my list, but my top 10 match this site’s Reader Top 10, so I have no complaints with any pick so far.

      1. Same situation, I have a different order but the same guys.

        The problem, which I mentioned above, is that the guys we have information on have low ceilings and the guys who have high ceilings haven’t given us enough information. So putting together an semi-accurate list is next to impossible when there isn’t much separating the 20th prospect from the 6th one.

    1. Some of the votes he might get, are being siphoned off by every potential low leverage, middle-reliever, the Phils have in the system.

    2. He’ll see a big bump after the Franco/Jrod resolution (I hope). He’s next on my list (ahead of Jrod actually), followed by LGreene, Pointer, and then TGreene.

    3. I feel ya. I voted for him as well. He’s getting absolutely no love. This reminds me of the NBA draft. Those who play a few years get penalized because we’ve seen them, where as freshman who we’ve seen very little of get picked very high because we have not seen their flaws yet.

      1. I’m a Jiwan James fan, but he shouldn’t be considered for the top 10. He was left unprotected in the rule 5 draft. That is a reflection of his prospect status, IMO.
        I understand the strategy that the Phillies used, when choosing who to protect in the rule 5 draft. Pitchers and good defensive shortstops are the most likely (A ball players) to be chosen, because they are easier to stash on the bench all year. But the fact that the Phillies exposed him means they can live without him. That is not top 10.

    1. He’s getting no love, but I have him coming up real soon on my list. After Franco and J-Rod go, my next guy is either Bonilla or Wright.

  7. I might have to go Gillies next. His injuries not withstanding he’s compiled 1100+ PA’s, his OBP is .403, his OPS is .836 and his avg. is .309. At 23 this might be his last chance to be considered a top tier prospect.

    Also consider T Greene before any of the other 2011 High Schoolers. In his short season he is more than respectable .386 OBP .765 OPS and a .276 avg. Whatever I think of Larry, Mitch and Roman they fall in behind Tyler.

    1. The short season was too short for me to pay much attention to. He only played in 17 games. After Franco and JRod, I’ll go with #1 pick, Larry Greene.

  8. I chose JRod over Franco. They both apparently lack power but JRod has demonstrated moxie in succeeding with below average velocity. If Maikel doesn’t flash more power in 2012 I will project him as more of a utility guy than a starting 3rd baseman.

    Whether or not either one will add power is completely up in the air, but even if JRod doesn’t add velocity to his fastball, he’s already shown he might just be savvy and deceptive enough to be effective anyway. Unfortunately for Franco, using deception to compensate for a lack of power as a hitter isn’t possible. To start at 3rd base, he’d have to develop a superior batting eye and contact skills to reach base at a .350+ clip while playing gold glove defense. His lack of foot speed only adds to the problem. Still, he’s got loads of time and I like his chances but I just had to vote for JRod based on position and early results.

    1. I’m not going to say this is irrational … a classic higher ceiling versus closer to the show (along with arguably a lower floor) choice … but on the power front, aside from what VOR says above, two points:

      (1) NYPL is a notoriously poor hitting environment;
      (2) Franco did have 17 doubles in 229 AB – and doubles power for a 20 year old often (not always) becomes HR power for a 25 year old.

      I don’t see Franco as a likely 30+ HR threat – but if he continues to develop, he could easily be a 20 HR threat.

      And he already appears to have a good batting eye & contact skills. 25/30 BB/K performance at Williamsport is outstanding for a 20 year old.

      1. “And he already appears to have a good batting eye & contact skills. 25/30 BB/K performance at Williamsport is outstanding for a 20 year old.”

        And even better for an 18 year old!

    2. Not to mention that the notion that a third baseman needs to either have significant HR power or do everything else exceptionally well may have had some validity 10 years ago, but doesn’t now. 2011 average NL third baseman: .257/.317/.387.

      Obviously Franco is a LONG way from the major leagues, but certainly his ceiling is much higher than that. And even an average major league player has considerable value.

      1. Yes, good points all around, especially age vs. level and ballpark / league effects. Franco did show a mature approach and his BB/K rate is already impressive at 18. Hugely encouraging. The Dom Brown NYPL power comp. is interesting, too.

        However, if a lack of power in a 3rd baseman doesn’t mean you have to do everything else exceptionally well then why are some people less than thrilled with Polanco? He does almost everything else exceptionally well (except foot speed) but we hear plenty of rumblings that it isn’t enough without the power. I really admire Polanco, he has unbelievable eye-hand coordination, tremendous footwork, freakishly soft hands, a good arm and great contact skills. Man, that in-between, laser-hop he snagged backhanded down the line during the Cardinals playoff series was awesome and clutch. Still I have to admit I’d like to see more power from 3rd base, at least 10 or 12 home runs.

        Anyway, I agree Franco is an exciting prospect and I have him next but it’s hard to imagine him developing the elite fielding or even contact skills that Polanco has. With that in mind, a little more power from Maikel will go a looooong way.

        1. “However, if a lack of power in a 3rd baseman doesn’t mean you have to do everything else exceptionally well then why are some people less than thrilled with Polanco?”

          Well I do happen to think that the Polanco panic is overdone. But to the extent that it is justied, it a is a combination of injury fears, the fact that he seems to be suffering an age related decline, and worries that said decline will accelerate. 2010 Polanco was a heck of a player, and if he can rerurn to that level carping about his lack of power would be silly. I’d also note that Polanco doesn’t walk a lot, and while that’s not a something that people complain about, if he did have a decent BB rate to along with the sterling defense and good contact skills, he would have been an elite third baseman.

          1. Polanco had the benefit of a power laden lineup. How Franco will fit into an unknown lineup of course can’t be answered but as to power lets talk in three or four years.

  9. Power?

    Domo Brown: NYPL, age 19, ops .754, iso .105, BB 8.5%, K 15.5%

    Maikel Franco: NYPL, age 18, ops .778, iso .124, BB 10.9%, K 13.1%

  10. I had Franco ahead of Galvis, so because Galvis made it to the List I didn’t want to leave Franco behind. That said, Franco hits well with good bat speed. That is a definite plus for me. I also like Austin Wright and Cameron Rupp because of their resurgence toward the end of last season. I think both will have great years this year. I expect both to play for Clearwater this year. I hope they are put on the list. Rupp is my #11 and Wright is my #16. Percy Garner is another pitcher I want to vote for he is my # 19

  11. Tyson Gillies. He is a crap shoot with his injuries. But if he is healthy he could be in AA AAA and knocking on the door. OR a leg falls off.

  12. I voted for Franco here and I think he has a decent shot of being an average or maybe even above average 3rd baseman in the majors. Although I WANTED to go with Gillies here, I just can’t do that until he shows that he can remain healthy for a full season with decent or better results.

  13. Pointer I believe he will make better contact this year. I am for anyone in this system who can get on base. I hope he gets a Lakewood shot at least until NYPL

  14. Franco

    JRod is second in the running, but I think the Franco votes will shift to T Greene and we’ll end up with a close vote for #10.

    1. A lot of votes will shift towards Tyler Greene next, but I will go Larry Greene Jr. Tyler Greene playing 17 games in the GCL, doesn’t erase the fact that Larry Greene jr was rated higher by everybody pre-draft.
      Baseball America, Perfect Game and Keith Law all rated Larry Greene higher than Tyler Greene. IMO, 17 games at the lowest level doesn’t override that.
      I got Larry Greene at #10 and Tyler Greene at #12, right now.

    2. I don’t see Tyler getting all that much more support than he’s already getting. People voting for Franco right now are just as likely to vote for Larry Greene, Gillies, and Jiwan as they are Tyler imo.

        1. Tyler Greene has played 17 games in a glorified summer league. I’d say there’s a lot of hope attached to him as well.

          1. Did you see the Yardbarker site that had the 5 Tool Players of each Organization. They picked Tyler Greene for the Phillies.

        2. One of the 5 tools is hitting for avg (or contact).
          I’ve seen reports that question Tyler Greene’s ability to make contact, just as i’ve seen this attached to Larry Greene. Tyler’s 35% K rate in the GCL kind of backs that report. So, if you are of the mind that Tyler Greene is a potential 5 tool player, you might want to consider Larry Greene at least a potential 2 tool player.

          Additionally: You don’t play CF for your HS team or get recruited to play LB at Alabama, if you don’t have speed.

  15. Franco da man….disgusting/perversion aside…if Bill Conlin who said he has watched him dozens of times last year, rates him that high….he must be that good.

  16. I went with Franco here. I then think (for now) I will go with Julio Rodriguez, then Larry Greene, Tyson Gillies, Jiwan James, Tyler Greene, and Austin Wright for my 10-15. This is a big year for Gillies because if healthy he should be a top 5 prospect for the Phils. But we know that has issue since arriving in the Lee deal. I thought I read James is giving up on switch hitting so hopefully that helps him. Larry Greene is our first power hitting prospect in a very long time. But the Phils can take their time grooming him. Julio Rodriguez has been succesful despite his critics. This year is a make or break for him. Tyler Greene could be the heir apparent at SS once JRolls deal ends. Austin Wright should be in Reading by the end of the year. The Phils don’t have many lefty starters in the system (especially with NHernandez and MWay hurt).

  17. Franco, who should have gone ahead of the relievers, here.

    Wright, J-Rod, and Bonilla coming soon.

    Agree that James is getting a bit under-valued, too. His defense is really spectacular–better than Shane already, but an OF, even a CF, has to post at least a .700 OPS, right?

    1. Yes, given the game he is likely to end up playing as a low-power, defensive CF with speed, James really needs to walk more than he does. James was 22 all last season, so his power should be starting to show, if it’s going to develop. I’m guessing he opens 2012 in Reading. That will tell a good deal about how good a prospect he actually is. The way the Phillies draft toolsy OF, we’ve had a lot of guy who would make excellent defensive CF, but have been limited by hitting.

  18. Savery votes must be attributed to name recognition alone. Regardless, I’ve officially started the ‘You Shouldn’t Vote for Savery as a Prospect’ club

  19. I disagree. He is a “prospect”. He just IS NOT a valuable “prospect”.
    The problem with voting Savery and Schwimer this high, is that you are saying they have more value than those not yet voted on to the list.
    If you’re being realistic, and a team wanted a 2nd or 3rd piece in a trade, who do you think they would ask for? Joe Savery or Tyler/Larry Greene? I think you’re kidding yourself, if you think someone would take Schwimer or Savery over Franco, LGJ or Tyler Greene.

  20. The interest in Savery has come out of nowhere along with his seemingly having recovered giddyup on his fast ball…and his few months being an effective lefty reliever at AA and AAA.

    We know that we had no good reliever throwing from the left side until Bastardo came on. And he was being used as a set-up guy, too. The innings/appearances by Bastardo brought him down in the last several weeks of the season.

    We don’t know how Willis will do as a lefty specialist out of the pen; Bastardo’s season may not be repeatable by him in ’12. Thus, Savery would likely be a quick call-up if either Willis or Bastardo falters. Having Savery available is of great merit for the team and likely will see some innings of MLB in ’12.

    Evaluating our prospects needs to take into consideration whether and how much could one or another of them aid the big club. Savery SEEMS to be high on the list of those who could see MLB action in ’12…so evaluating his worth on that basis should be considered. Long term, most of the other prospects would be more valuable; but Savery is closer to the bigs than almost all of the others.
    Thus, IMO, he SHOULD be added to the list…but where? His proximity should allow him to come in at 12-15 based on that and the shortage of lefty relievers in the system. The guy seems to have “come back from the dead.”

    1. I think this is where most of the disagreements in prospect ranking stem from. Most of us would agree on his potential and his likeliness of pitching in the majors soon, but how much weight we give to those factors can differ greatly.

      Personally I won’t have Savery in my top 15 even though I agree that he is very likely to pitch in the majors this year- and even pitch effectively. But if I’m deciding if I’d rather have him or Lisalberto Bonilla in the farm system, I’m going with Bonilla even though he’s much less of a sure thing.

  21. Went Franco at #9. Thinking about writing in Roman Quinn at #10, for no reason other than BA has him at #11. Looks like I’m going a lot lower on Julio Rodriguez than some people.

  22. In terms of Savery, what is the prospect value of a player whose ceiling is probably a 1-WAR low-leverage lefty reliever? I think, personally, that a prospect has to at least have the chance of being significantly above replacement level in the big leagues. This is why Jiwan James is slipping, too, I think–looks like a replacement level bat at best.

    Starting pitchers can post 2 or 3 WAR seasons if they get lucky with BABIP and throw strikes (if they have some stuff). A lefty reliever who struggles with righties? Not enough value to even make #30 for me, and I like the guy.

  23. Wonder where JC Ramirez will get consideration. I guess he’s the next tier down after Bonilla/Rodriguez/Wright. Make or break year for JC. I think this will will be his last chance to stick as a starter.

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