2012 Reader Top 30, #8

Phillippe Aumont is the winner of the runoff for #6, meaning that Jon Pettibone is #7 and we move right along to #8. In the voting for #6, Jiwan James and Tyson Gillies received the most write-in support, so they will be added to this round.

As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP

Check below for #8

68 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #8

  1. I’m not as big on Franco as a lot of people here, but he’s among the highest ceilings in the system He’s has more youth on his side than James and Gillies and more experience than the Greene’s.

    I could see a case being made for De Fratus here based on proximity to the majors and a fairly high floor as a reliever. Schwimer is the weaker version of the same argument. I’m not sure whether I prefer high upside longshots or high probability middle relievers. Projected value might actually favor the relievers despite that they’ll provide very little of it.

    In any case, I opted for upside + youth and picked Franco.

    1. +1

      I also think DeFratus’s ceiling isn’t all that high as a reliever, he’s really more of a 6th/7th inning guy. Usually I’m a proximity guy, but Franco seems special.

      1. I have DeFratus above Aumont. A reliever has to find the plate. Aumont’s BB/9 ballooned to 5.6 at AAA. Justin’s actually was better than his AA BB/9. He dropped from 3.7 to 2.4. Aumont may have the better pitches but DeFratus can get his over the plate. Aumont wasn’t called up to Philly because they didn’t want a guy who walks 5 1/2 guys per 9. Aumont improved his K/9 when he increased to a filthy 14.2 but Justin also saw his K/9 increase to 12.3 from 11.3. ST should be interesting. A lot of young relievers will be trying to make a name for themselves.

        After Justin, I have Julio Rodriguez, Lisalberto Bonilla and then Franco. I like the starting pitchers and until JRod and Bonilla stop performing, I’m a believer. Bonilla made a lot of relief appearances last year but that was to limit his innings and let Hollands get some early innings. He continues to be a starter to me.

        1. Walks are only one part of the equation. While the sample sizes are small, Aumont had FIPs of 2.55 and 2.05 in AA and AAA as a reliever. DeFratus had FIPs 2.56 and 2.59 in AA and 2.44 in AAA. Aumont is a year younger with better stuff. I have Aumont 8 and DeFratus 10. Really, the difference is small between them, but I rate Aumont higher. Also, control is usually less of an issue for a reliever than a starter.

          Franco is another ball of wax. He did exceptionally well for his age in 2011 and has the scouting reports to back it up. Plus he’s an infielder. He could really be a star.

  2. I’m going with Franco for the same reasoning. I get to a few Blue Claws games a year so I’m excited to see what he can do over a full season.

  3. I was torn between DeFratus and Maikel Franco. I chose DeFratus. He is much farther along and surer to be a big leaguer. Franco has the higher ceiling, but his results thus far at a very low level, while promising, don’t scream future star to me. I guess I’ve seen way too many Phillies 3B prospects from the lower levels bomb out over the past decade or so.

  4. JDF this round, then going to start picking all the upside guys. Right now I’m torn between the Greenes and Franco.

      1. Yeah, I’m with you on Tyler Greene. I had him fifth, ranked above Franko – whom people here seem to be expecting to be something special (and I do hope that is the case – we need a legit third base proespect).

        Maybe we are leery of Greene because we had limited success with the other Tyler Green. Judging by the way voting is going, Tyler will be ranking around 11, depending on how much momentum Larry Greene picks up.

        – Jeff

        1. I honestly lean Franco just because we have professional at-bats to judge him by, but I think the sky is the limit for all of those guys but it is just as likely any one of them never makes the show.

        2. I think another factor is that we really haven’t seen enough of him to pass judgement. By next year, at least, we’ll have an idea about where he is skill-wise.

          1. From a whole career perspective, would you put Jimmy Rollins over Ryan Howard? (Assume for a second that Howard was a full time starter for the phillies at 23 instead of late because of Thome)? (not doubting, just curiuos where you fall on that)

            1. That’s a tough call – with both being borderling hall-of-famers, mvps and All Stars. I’d give Rollins the edge since he’s a three time gold glover at a demanding position. I would do the same with Greene over Greene as well 8^) Seriously, Tyler gets the nod for me over Larry simply because he seems to be a more well rounded player versus a a one tool (even if it’s a +++ tool player)

            2. It’s Rollins, no doubt, for me. It is hard to guess what Howard would have been at 23 in the majors though, but I would love to know.

      2. That’s because Franco was amazing at one of the three teams he played for in his pro career. Really – even above league average.

  5. Went with Franco. Just for the fact that he hit a HR off of a 95mph Tailon fastball last year at Lakewood .

  6. I voted Franco based purely on reputation and I voted without conviction. I think L. Greene, Walding and T. Greene might all be better, but we have no idea. DeFratus is good, but having seen him pitch, I’m not sure how good. I wouldn’t be surprised if DeFratus’s career ends up being a lot like Ryan Madson’s – a long, slow, upward trajectory. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I don’t think he’s going to be a hot shot anytime soon. Hopefully I’m wrong about that.

  7. Franco–high ceiling position player who is young for the league, and has an OPS of 20-30% above league average. He’s a very exciting prospect who COULD be in our top three by the end of the season.

  8. Quickly approaching “I’m definitely just guessing” territory. Maybe I should stop voting. Kinda want to go with Larry Greene because of the potential to see 500 foot home runs at the Bank. That probably counts in favor of me bowing out of the voting lol

  9. This is the real interestng part because its really just a guess in placing in order pretty much the same guys on everyone’s list. I went with Larry Greene here because of his power potential. DeFratus is in the mix for me, but he’s only going to be a set up guy at best, Franco struggled so bad at Lakewood, JRod supposdly doesn’t throw hard enough, Quinn has his speed but what else, Tyler Green could be a 5 tool guy at SS but he just did ok last year, and Bonilla looked good but in a small sample. They all have their warts but they’re my next 7 in some order.

    By the way, Wood’s agent suggested the Phillies interest as a ploy to get more money from the Cubs. Who knows whether they even called. All the rumors come from the agents, not the teams. The Phils will only look to sign another Sanches type on a minor league deal. They just don’t want to spend much money on that now. They’ll save their money in case they need to find a 2B or 3B (or LF) mid season. There will unfortunately most likely be another mideseason trade of prospects to fill whatever hole that turns up based on injury or poor production.

  10. It is interesting to me that De Fratus is receiving so much more interest than Savery. Perhaps because we have less data on Savery as a reliever? Or maybe he’s considered a lefty specialist? Either way, I evaluate him close to De Fratus.

    1. Savery was a non-prospect for a really long time and really only has half a season of success under his belt now. Even with that success, he looks like a 6th or 7th reliever. He might not be in my top 30 to be honest. There are some ceilings that all the proximity in the world can’t save.

      1. I realize Savery only has 25 innings in AAA as a reliever, but they were really good innings. His FIP was 1.84. De Fratus in 41 innings in AAA had a FIP of 2.44. In their MLB appearances, Savery averaged a FB of 91, while De Fratus averaged 92. They just don’t seem that different to me.

        I think it is odd to have two guys who had very similar years in 2011 ranked so far apart (one is top ten, one is barely top 30). Perhaps people think De Fratus can be a shut-down reliever while Savery can only be a LOOGY. I honestly have never seen either pitch, so I am open to others’ opinions on that.

        Either way, they are both going to be in competition for the MLB bullpen this Spring.

  11. At least all the “aumontwishful” thinking is over. I think he will be a long time in maturing as a closer or even an eighth inning guy, J. De will be useful long before that.
    There is too much ironclad forecasting on teenagers this year. Even so I have Franco next more as a wish than a forecast.
    PS Vogelsong goes from lousy at Lehigh to a two year contract with the Giants. I’ll have what he is drinking.

    1. For some reason, Aumont reminds me of Jorge Sosa. They don’t have much in common but my mind keeps making that connection. Then again, if Sosa had figured things out, he would have been filthy.

  12. I voted for De Fratus, although the Maikel Franco voters are making convincing points. I just had to go with Justin’s combination of track record and proximity over Maikel’s projection. I’m confident De Fratus will have a decent MLB career but I’m not yet so sure about Franco since he has a long way left to go.

    I’m hoping to see Lisalberto Bonilla on the list soon, I have him at 11.

  13. I went Justin here and I’ll go Franco next then T Greene. Love Bonilla then J-Rod. Man we might be really deep with young arms again and we haven’t even started talking about that Wright kid yet.

    I think Pointer is a kid to consider as well here shortly

  14. I hate to sound like I’m suppressing anyone’s opinion, but Savery getting votes this early is more appalling than the amount of support given to Mitchell last season. Truly a head-scratcher

    Going with De Fratus here, with Franco likely at no. 9

  15. I took Franco over DeFratus here. It’s hard to argue DeFratus is in a pretty fine position to have a productive MLB career. How productive he can be from a bullpen role is the issue in my mind. Franco’s numbers at his age are interesting, especially, as mentioned above, how far above league averages he was last year in a league where he’s facing a lot of college kids and a fair amount of older and more seasoned latin guys and not racking up a ton of Ks. Seems like just a good hitter projecting at least average power for a 3B, who apparently plays reasonable D. No speed, it seems. So hopefully power shows up as he progresses.

  16. I went with Julio Rodriguez on the hopes he continues to defy the naysayers with repeated dominance. If he repeats his numbers from 2011 in 2012 for Reading, he will definitely be considered a very top prospect. Of course that is far from certain.

    I would have taken Franco otherwise followed by Defratus.

    Note: I agree with the head-scratching on Savery. He was ready to quit baseball just before his last minute callup.

    1. I think you may have two different stories mixed up there. Correct me if I am wrong here, but wasn’t he about ready to quit towards the end of 2010 before they decided to let him try hitting? The story I recall from the fall of 2011 was he was in the middle of packing up in Lehigh Valley go home for the winter, but they called him up.

      Either way, he’s not a high level prospect. He may become a good lefty specialist, but even a good one is not to be confused with a high level back end of the pen prospect. I’ve seen no indicators that anyone thinks he profiles as an 8th inning setup man or anything like that. Next year at this time we’ll know more about his likely position/usefullness in the pen.

      Maybe people add a plus to him for his bat. Can’t see that as very useful. He’s never really hit much at all above A+. And how often would you prefer to hit him over a bench guy? Sure, in the 12th inning, with one bench guy left and no one on base, you let him hit and are happier than if it were Antonio Bastardo, but that’s about it.

      1. Who is the better prospect, Savery or Diekman? I have them tentatively 26th and 24th, Savery because he was a former #1 and pitched okay for the Phils. I like Diekman’s potential more because he has the new side arm delivery with upper 90s fastball.

        1. I was just thinking the same thing — that Diekman is a better LOOGY candidate because he just kills lefties while Savery’s splits aren’t nearly as extreme. But Savery did regain most of his velocity last season, he’s back in the low 90s with a shorter arm motion, better breaking stuff and better command. You have to give him credit for fighting through his struggles, switching from pitching to hitting to pitching again, and somehow finding a way to succeed. He just turned 26 in November. I have Savery at 30 and Diekman at 29.

          I remember how cocky Savery sounded just after he was drafted, saying he’d be in the majors in no time. It didn’t work out that way but his struggles have been character building and he’s so much easier to root for now that he’s an underdog.

        2. I will almost certainly have Diekman in the teens – he is one of the fastest rising prospects in the system. Any lefty who throws side arm or 3/4 in the upper 90s and goes to the AFL and gives only a few hits, is a guy to watch. Diekman could easily be this year’s Mike Stutes – a guy who comes seemingly out of nowhere and assumes an important role on the team.

        3. Deikman probably has control issues as his biggest negative. Savery has lack of experience in the pen as his. Yeah, Deikman killed the AFL. Huge for him, but does he have set-up stuff or just LOOGY stuff? Hard to say in AA. Clearly the big club likes him a lot.

  17. I went DeFratus. I like him better than I do Aumont because he has a better idea of the plate and his stuff is plus. Aumont might be nasty, but it means nothing if he can’t get it over. Saying that I hope he learns better command and control and becomes a super reliever. Until then I think DeFratus is better. Franco is next for me. He didn’t do as well at Lakewood last year because he was too young. I think he will be a star this year.

    1. I agree that DeFratus is better than Aumont because of his control and amazing year-to-year consistency. But I like Franco a smidgen more than DeFratus because of his upside.

  18. I went with De Fratus here, even though I don’t like the idea of having more than one relief pitcher in the top ten prospects, I still think Justin deserves to be at #9. Tyson Gillies could very easily catapult himself back into the top 5-10 prospects with a healthy and productive season, and I certainly hope he can do that this year.

    1. Imagine that! Two first in one week….being persuaded by the posters and getting Freddie Glavis’ named spelled right after two years….now who would have thought.

      1. I get pursuaded more often then you think. Basically everything I believe regarding MiLB is from this site over the last 6 yrs and logic.

  19. It’s a total crapshoot at this point because we’re basically pitting low ceiling/with experience against potential high ceiling/without professional results. It will be interesting to see how much this year’s list will differ from next year’s.

    Guys like Franco, the Greenes, Walding, Martinez, Asche, Schull, Morgan, and even guys from past drafts who haven’t done much so far (Garner, Walter, Musser, Pointer) have the potential take huge leaps forward this year.

  20. Went with DeFratus…I think he can be good MLB reliever. He will pitch the 6th/7th innings this year and eventually become an 8th inning/9th inning guy. Julio Rodriguez, Franco, and L Greene are coming up next

  21. Waaaaay OT, but what’s the deal with Gauntlett Eldemire? Is he hurt, or just not very good. After what I think has been two years, he has done nothing in any leagues, yet I have heard rave reviews about his athleticism. Any info on him?

    PS. I went Franco because of his upside, production at a young age, and position.

    1. The comment should be is there REALLY 19 people who voted for Schwimer at #8 when he should be in the high teens at best?

  22. What is the sudden drooling fest going on about Relievers? Since when does 2 potential MLB relievers end up in a teams top 10 when you have some high upside position players and at least 1 more SP that SHOULD be ahead of them.

    1. I agree. I have Aumont as my #5 but no other reliever is in my top ten. Savery, Schwimer, and Diekman aren’t even in my top 30. They will all probably see major league action this year but I think it is more valuable to have a younger guy with a higher ceiling.

      1. Savery and Schwim are #31 and 32 on my list, right ahead of our old friend Matt Rizzoti. #33 isn’t just my ranking of him, it’s how old he will be when he cracks the bigs. Just like Chris Coste!

        I actually think Rizz will crack the bigs in the next couple years, but it will be with a second division team after Minor League Free Agency. Overbeck has passed him on our depth chart, and Darin Ruf seems like the exact same player, only a year younger. Anyone who’s seen them care to compare Ruf and Rizz on defense? I’m getting a jump on my #31-40.

    2. Sudden, drooling over relievers? I agree the relievers are over valued here, but that is not at all sudden.

      1. People are equating making potential starts in the MLB as to how good a prospect is. Case in point Michael Stutes. Last year he stayed with the big league club all season but there is no way you would rank him above Trevor May. I agree with you though. It’s frustating hearing people even try to make a case for Savery anywhere in the top 20, let alone the top 30.

    3. Because these relievers will contribute value to the big club this year. J-Rod, for example, might never get out of AA. Which is more valuable? It all depends on your definition, but in terms of present day value, guys contributing to wins at the major league level is usually more valuable.

      All that said, in this particular case I have J-Rod rated #7, ahead of Aumont and De Fratus, and all of them behind Franco.

  23. So far, the top seven on here are the same seven guys I have in my top seven but in a different order. #8 on my list is Larry Greene so that’s who I’m voting for.

  24. Gillies. He has to get back on the field, but if he does he is higher in the system and with glove and speed could be the Phillies 4th outfielder as soon as next year 2013.

  25. A name I haven’t see mentioned is Perci Garner. He was 28 on the community list last year. I didn’t vote for him last year. People on this board have been high on him. Where do you slot him? I have my top 16 right now and a list of guys who might be put into the remaining 14 slots. Every day I look at the list and try to put someone else on the list and every day I say, it will easier tomorrow. I might be at a point where I’ll pick the top 5 or so from my to-be-slotted list and draw names out of a hat.

      1. He’s interesting but 22 in the NYPL and only 30 IP (34 total in 2 seasons) I don’t think its enough work to improve from the 20’s into the teens.

        Austin Wright is more interesting to me. Big Body Lefty almost 70 IP 1.189 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 should garner some attention.

  26. Perci is very interesting.Five wild pitches in the short time he had last year must make him hard to hit against. He could be on a very fast train. Starting at Clearwater would be a huge jump but would put him with his age group and the warmer weather couldn’t hurt. Not much to lose and lots to gain.

  27. Once again we are picking the best prospects. Enough with the bogus positional value argument. We are picking the best prospects. Get over it. I like De Fratus because he has mid 90 speed and good movement. He also will come inside.

    1. I rate prospects for their potential value to a Major League Team, though not necessarily their present team. Thus a pitcher who has potential to be a #1 Starter would be higher than someone who may be the best LOOGY on the staff. I would even rank a #2 or #3 starter over a #1 Loogy.

      Position is critical when evaluating players.

      Example – If a SS and OFer were both “Average” in their fielding skills and possessed the same exact hitting skills compared to Each Other, the SS would be a FAR better prospect.

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