Great starts for Manzanillo and Garner. Garner has been very good. It would be nice to see a first-hand report on him. Mathieson got himself in trouble with walks. May pitched through difficulty and wound up with six innings. Great relief by Shreve. Gomez has not been steady in relief; same with Friend, who has been giving up runs. Tonight it cost Reading a game they needed.
Pointer is hitting the ball. He looks like a prospect. How is his fielding? Alonso made a nice relay to double up a man at first on a fly ball to preserve the shut out.
Murphy has made a tremendous contribution for Lakewood to hold the young team together. They still have a slight chance for the post season, which did not seem possible at the break.
I saw him pitch in one of his first outings after returning from the injury. He appeared to be throwing hard, but was all over the place, and the inexperienced opposing hitters did him a lot of favors by swinging at stuff out of the zone–like, bouncing in front of the plate. His walks seem to be down in more recent outings, so maybe he was just working off the rust, but he’s definitely a very raw product at this point.
Pointer with two more hits. Four for Villalobos.
Two hits and a walk for Altherr today, that’s nice. Garner wild but effective.
Good game for Alvarez.
Valle hits and walks; Mattair walks twice. May’s problem with walks rearing its ugly head tonight; good that he still managed to strike out 8 and get through six innings, though.
Overbeck hits and walks. He’s been better lately, so hopefully he’s adjusting. Good outings for Savery and DeFratus.
Just a few innings pitched of pro ball by Garner. Physically he seems like a beast. But he will be 23 before next season begins. Maybe a quick trip to Lkwd in ’12 with a possible mid-season gain to Clwtr??
I think I read before this season started that Garner was supposed to go to Lakewood to start the year. Whether or not that was true, the injury scuppered that one. I think he will probably be at LKW for most of next year. While he is older, he does not have a lot of experience pitching. He was a QB first and foremost in college, only pitching 20 IP as a reliever in 2009 and 74 IP as a starter in 2010. He is sort of like Jiwan James in that way – old for his league but inexperienced.
While he’s only pitched 20 innings so far, they look pretty good. Hopefully with experience he can refine his control and command.
Austin Brough is hard to figure at the short season level. Not a lot of Ks and he is about neural in the GB department. If he has a good spring he may take the fast train.
Is it just me or is there an awful lot of caught stealing and pickoffs? Not just last nights games but all year. Is it the organization’s philosophy to be ultra aggressive on the bases in the minors? It is just about the opposite for the big league team.
Pickoffs and caught stealings are more about guys learning about pitchers tells and lack of seeing the pitchers moves. Some guys are extremely fast and have always been able to steal because of that; especially high school guys. Now they are playing against a better caliber of pitcher and sometimes they are college hardened pitchers. They know a thing or two about baiting the runner, when to pitch out (catchers are better too) and slide steps and the like.
I see Galvis moved to leadoff. If this is a trend, and one day does not a trend make, they are trying to get him more ABs in AAA. He’ll get the callup in September and with Rollins out, maybe sooner. I’ll get a lot of flak for that last comment.
I could see him getting the call-up when Lehigh’s season is over. I don’t see it happening any sooner. I think they’re fine with Valdez/MiniMart filling in at SS for the short term.
Saw on philly.com that Charlie has said that Mayberry deserves to be in the lineup now for a while, hinting that even when Raul returns he may go with Mayberry. I’ll believe that when I see it. Most interesting was Amaro’s comment that they may have him try playing 3B. Said he played it before being drafted, that would be interesting.
Actually we can talk about it here because half the site believes Mayberry will be playing for the R Phils next season. Also, we talk about Anthony Hewitt on this site and he is clearly not a “phuture phillie”.
Don’t like taking a super-smooth, natural athlete, ultra-glide, defensively polished CF/LF/RF (completely interchangeable) and putting him at the one position that requires quickness and toughness, just the opposite profile of what Mayberry is. Can’t see for one second. Nw if they want to simpy see if he can take some starts there to increase his versatility and ABs, maybe that’s OK, but generally It think it’s a bad idea, much like putting Altherr at 3B. Giants should have put Willie Mays at 3B. Would make as much sense. Don’t care that it’s a position of need. You don’t put a square peg in a round hole.
Fast is not the opposite of quick, and smooth is not the opposite of tough. I would say we have no clue from his work in the outfield and at first base whether he could play a passable major league third base.
That JR to third is so interesting. He seems capable. But if he gets too close to the bag it will burn up he is soooo hot. His production in August matches Pence and even Vic’s in far less AB’s. Lets hope it is for real
Reigning No.1 – OF – Domonic Brown (LHV-9/13/87) – (.268) 3 for 3 with 2 runs, 2 BB, SB (11), CS (4)
Current Mid-season Top 30
1. RHP – Trevor May (CLW-9/23/89)- (10-7, 3.45) – 6 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 8 K (win)
3. C – Sebastian Valle (CLW-7/24/90) – (.290) – 1 for 4 with a run, BB
5. OF – Zach Collier (LWD-9/18/90) – (.247) – 0 for 2 with an RBI (31), SB (31), CS (13)
7. RHP – Justin De Fratus (LHV-10/21/87) – (2-3, 4.00) –1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K (save)
8. SS – Freddy Galvis (LHV-11/14/89) – (.307) –1 for 5 with a run, RBI (7), K
11. RHP – Phillippe Aumont (LHV-1/7/89) – (0-0, 3.72) – 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, BB, K
12. OF – Jiwan James (CLW-4/11/89) – (.270) – 1 for 5 with a run, RBI (32), K
14. SS – Tyler Greene (GCL-12/1/92) – (.292) 1 for 4 with a CS (1), 2 K’s
16. 3B – Harold Martinez (WIL-5/31/90) – (.251) – 1 for 5 with a run, BB, K
19. OF – Brian Pointer (GCL-1/28/92) – (.283) – 2 for 4 with a 2B (12), K
22. 3B – Carlos Rivero (REA-5/20/88) –(.285) 0 for 4 with a run, BB, K
23. 1B – Matt Rizzotti (REA/12/24/85)– (.288) – 2 for 5 with a HR (21), RBI (74), 2 K’s
25. OF – Kyrell Hudson (WIL-16/6/90) – (.279) – 1 for 7 with 2 K, CS (10)
26. OF – Aaron Altherr (WIL-1/14/91) – (.282) – 1 for 2 with a 2B (11), run, BB
28. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (CLW-5/23/90) – (.257) – 2 for 5 with a run, K
29. 2B– Cody Asche (WIL-6/20/90) – (.195) 0 for 3
30. OF – Derrick Mitchell (REA-1/5/87)- (.267) – 0 for 4 with 2 K’s
Other names of interest
1B – Cody Overbeck (LHV-6/5/86) – (.255) – 1 for 2 with a run, RBI (23), BB
2B – Carlos Valenzuela (GCL-9/18/90) – (.331)- 0 for 4 with 3 K’s
2B – Alejandro Villalobos (GCL/8/20/91) – (.282) 4 for 4
3B – Travis Mattair (CLW-12/21/88) – (.218) 0 for 3 with a run, 2 BB
SS – Edgar Duran (LWD-2/10/91) – (.236) 0 for 2 with a K
OF – Anthony Hewitt (LWD-4/27/89) – (.230) – 0 for 4 with a K
OF – Miguel Alvarez (LWD-8/27/89) –(.270) – 3 for 4 with a run, SB (15), CS (4)
LHP – Joe Savery (LHV-11/4/85) – (4-0, 1.86) 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, K (win)
LHP – Fabian Cota (GCL-4/13/92) – (1-0, 4.05) 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, K
RHP – B.J. Rosenberg (REA-9/17/85) – (4-7, 4.56) – 2.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, BB, 2 K (loss)
RHP – Justin Friend (REA-6/21/86) – (1-3, 2.88) – 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
RHP – Colby Shreve (CLW-1/15/88) – (0-0, 1.29) – 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, BB, 3 K
RHP – Percival Garner (WIL-12/13/88) – (1-1, 1.80) 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (loss)
RHP – Colton Murray (WIL-4/22/90) – (0-2, 2.78) 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K
RHP – Ramon Oviedo (GCL-7/24/90) – (3-2, 4.02) 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
RHP – Jonathan Musser (GCL-12/19/91) – (1-6, 6.59) – 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, K
I think you can talk about Mayberry here because he is still new to the big leagues. He spent most of last year on the minors and parts of this year. He’s still an emerging player.
Anyway, here’s official confirmation of what I have been saying about Brown for some time now.
Ruben Amaro Jr.: ” We did a bit of a disservice to him, because he hasn’t really gotten quality and steady development time that he’s needed.” This is in reference to the fact that Brown only got 62 at bats from late July of 2010 to the end of the season. Being on the bench last year hurt Brown’s development, no doubt. This explains a lot of the negative developments that have taken place in his career recently. And the fact is there are still a lot of positives.
There’s plenty of positives. And honestly some of my comments about Mayberry – who, again, I like – are really more about defending Brown. I do think Mayberry is the perfect candidate in the abstract for a platoon role. Except on the Phillies specifically, I think plattooning him with Brown would be a bad move in terms of Brown’s development. And more generally, platooning seems to be on the deceline, for reasons not enitirely clear to me.
I do think Mayberry should be the regular THIS year, over Ibanez. I’d prefer Brown but that doesn’t seem likely, though Brown should and probably will be the regular next year.
Draw up the career progression/ paths of Mayberry and the Nats Michael Morse….though Mayberry was a college draftee and Morse a HS draftee, both however appear to have been on a comparable MLB course with striking similarities in size and defensive abilities.
I’m not saying that it is impossible that Mayberry is for real, just unlikely. Morse is a sample size of one. I don’t think you can make predictions on that sort of evidence. It would be great, but unlikely IMO. All these hopes everyone is putting on Mayberry are based upon just over 200 PA.
And as for Morse, I think it’s very likely that he’ll regresss somewhat as well. In fact, in a lot of ways he is a bigger regression risk than Mayberry. A better comp would be someone with a similar profile who sent on to have several seasons as a star or even solid regular. And I’m sure you could find such a comp. As well as plenty of comps where a guy comes out of nowhere in a partial season and then regresses/
I’m sold on him as a 4th OF, though, and one who can step in and do a solid job when the inevitable injuries occur.
And to be fair to Mayberry, while I still think that reliance on a sample size of 200 PA is unwise, the reason that I do think that some of the improvement is likely for real is that it appears to be supported by peripherals – K/BB/HR data – not BABIP driven. That data normalizes more quickly than (for example) BA. But EVEN SO his career performance (major league and minor league) is still a better predictor of long term performance than his major league data this season.
All this is especially true of a guy who is getting his first real exposure to the league. Adjustments work both ways. In this case, I think we can expect that further exposure to the league may well result in adjustments by pitchers that reduce Mayberry’s effectiveness.
Here’s an interesting take on the Morse comparison, though. On a per PA basis, Mayberry is arguably having a better year than Morse. Slightly worse hitting versus signficantly better defense.
Mayberry reminds me of Darnell McDonald – high draft pick, athletic, plays the OF, draws some walks but not a ton, has some pop but not a ton, generally had an OPS of 750-800 in AAA. McDonald has an OPS of 700 over 580 ABs in the majors. That sounds right to me for Mayberry; perhaps higher if Mayberry gets proportionally more ABs versus lefties.
“And more generally, platooning seems to be on the decline, for reasons not entirely clear to me.”
Because managers “must” have at least 12 pitchers on their squad. Some prefer 13. Just a matter of running out of bodies in offensive positions. Earl Weaver used to use platoons to great advantage, but with a 11-man staff as I remember.
Yeah, I think that explains why there is less platooning at SS/3B/2B/C and arguably 1B. But even with 12 man staffs – and hence 5 man benches – you’re going to have a couple of OF on the bench. Now granted there is a somewhat higher premium even there on having a guy who has some positional flexibility, and players with positional flexibility are somewhat less likely have the hitting skills to platoon. But even so, platooning at one OF spot should be doable. Mayberry specifically seems to have the skills to be a 4th/5th OF, including some positional flexibility, yet has the hitting skills to be a strong platoon player. Maybe not for the Phillies, but for someone.
Looks like they gave Maikel a day off he has really been struggling. HMART continues to collect hits and walks. Possible he and Maikel trade places before seasons end.
How can you compare morse to mayberry// morse i believe faces both type pitchers, mayberry mostly lefthanders until recently imo. morse looks like a monster so far, mayberry is suprising me cant believe its the same player.
I thought this was a pretty good article comparing draft spending. Basically shows that the Phils stuck with slot obligations. In some ways I wish the Phils were a little more like the Rockies – total spend on the lower side but a number of 500k signings. I think the Phils tend to do their above slot signings in the 200k range, not the 500k range, so maybe that distorts it a tad.
Let’s make 3 assumptions which are I think clearly correct:
(1) All, or virtually all, prospects come with a high beta.
(2) There is a line below which a prospect has almost no chance of making it – basically, players that will never be more than org filler). (Middle relievers being a little bit of a wild card here, as they sometimes come virtually out of nowhere.)
It seems to me that, if that is true, the “ideal” draft strategy is to buy as many “tickets” (real prospects) as possible for the amount of money you have to spend. That means staying away (for the most part) from the really high bonuses, but at the same time giving out a lot of mid-range bonuses to real prospects to maximize your “tickets” to the lottery, so to speak.
Now, the tricky part is deciding where the line gets drawn between the real prospects and filler. It isn’t a bright line for a number of reasons, one of which is that some real prospects (again often middle relievers) who have little bargaining power (i.e., college seniors) get low bonuses. But I think we can agree that the line is well below $500,000.00 – i.e., there are plenty of “real” prospects who sign for less than that.
Going back to the Phillies vs Rockies draft strategies, given only total spending and number of $500,000 plus bonuses, it is almost certain that the Phillies’ signed more “real” prospects. Maybe a lot more.
I’d rather see then spread their money out on a lot of mid range bonuses – and that seems to be what they do.
Tough night for the Cutters in Batavia on Tuesday. Despite playing a double-header the night before, the Muckdogs had no trouble taking care of the Cutters in two more.
Game One: Garner with another solid start…the first batter he faced hit one of the hardest comebackers I’ve ever seen – a bullet straight back to Perci which luckily went pretty much straight into his glove…otherwise it could have been a serious injury. But Garner didn’t really get rattled, and went on to have a pretty good start. His fastball definitely has some nice life…the breaking ball wasn’t as sharp as his previous start at home, and he struggled with command, but overall it wasn’t a bad start.
The Cutters caught a bad break in the fourth, when the Muckdogs hitter lined a single into center, scoring one runner and moving another to third. Hudson sent the throw to third, but it got past Martinez and allowed the extra run to score, and that would be all Batavia needed.
Game Two: Fick with the fill-in start…a little shaky with three hits and a misplayed ball by Altherr in left to start the game. Brough continued to do what he does, just get people out without being overly dominant. He was helped out by a good throw by Hudson in this game, which nailed a runner at home to keep the game 1-0 early on. I believe Brough has now thrown 15.1 straight shutout innings.
Lavin had all three of the Cutters hits through the majority of the game…he is doing a really great job for being a ho-hum 20th-round senior pick. Gomez pitched fine in his first inning of relief, but yielded the winning run in the bottom of the seventh. With runners on first and third, the Batavia hitter ripped a line drive down the third base line, which I thought was the game-winner, but Harold Martinez speared it on an all-out diving stab. Unfortunately, the next batter blooped a single in front of Lavin to win it.
Good to hear Hudson did something good last night, as the box scores suggested he had a tough evening, with an error in a one-run loss in the first game that led to one of Garner’s two runs being unearned, and an 0-4 performance in the one-run loss in the 2nd game which included getting on base twice, but then having a CS and a PO. Will be good to see him bounce back from all that.
Saw Hudson play a week or so ago when the Crosscutters were in Aberdeen. He didn’t have a great night or anything, but I was impressed with how he looked at the plate. Last year when I saw him he looked completely lost. Just flailing at balls. This year he had a very nice swing and looked like he had a plan. The difference in his approach and confidence were like night and day.
I’ve seen fastball, breaking ball, changeup. Last night he seemed to be going mostly fastball-changeup. One thing I have noticed with Garner is that he often gets ahead in a 1-2 or 0-2 count, and instead of using his bigtime fastball he’ll go with a secondary pitch and leave it up, and it will get smacked for a base hit.
Freddie Galvis might end up the Paul Owens player of the yr award winner for 2011…he made a grear improvement when at AA and now he is killing it at AAA. He is batting .325 with his 3rd hit tonight.
Phuture Phillies 
damn Dom have a day
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Thoughts from today:
-Savery another great outing. He very well may pitch in the majors this year. Possible second lefty in the playoffs?
-Shreve has been beastly lately. Reading next year with chance to move up imo
-May got hit around, but good K numbers still. Still a lot to like.
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2011 draft pick Giles with a rocky outing for GCL:
1.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 2 SO
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I have a feeling we’re going to see a lot of bad Kenny / good Kenny this year and next.
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Great starts for Manzanillo and Garner. Garner has been very good. It would be nice to see a first-hand report on him. Mathieson got himself in trouble with walks. May pitched through difficulty and wound up with six innings. Great relief by Shreve. Gomez has not been steady in relief; same with Friend, who has been giving up runs. Tonight it cost Reading a game they needed.
Pointer is hitting the ball. He looks like a prospect. How is his fielding? Alonso made a nice relay to double up a man at first on a fly ball to preserve the shut out.
Murphy has made a tremendous contribution for Lakewood to hold the young team together. They still have a slight chance for the post season, which did not seem possible at the break.
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I saw him pitch in one of his first outings after returning from the injury. He appeared to be throwing hard, but was all over the place, and the inexperienced opposing hitters did him a lot of favors by swinging at stuff out of the zone–like, bouncing in front of the plate. His walks seem to be down in more recent outings, so maybe he was just working off the rust, but he’s definitely a very raw product at this point.
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Thanks for the reality check.
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Pointer with two more hits. Four for Villalobos.
Two hits and a walk for Altherr today, that’s nice. Garner wild but effective.
Good game for Alvarez.
Valle hits and walks; Mattair walks twice. May’s problem with walks rearing its ugly head tonight; good that he still managed to strike out 8 and get through six innings, though.
Overbeck hits and walks. He’s been better lately, so hopefully he’s adjusting. Good outings for Savery and DeFratus.
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Just a few innings pitched of pro ball by Garner. Physically he seems like a beast. But he will be 23 before next season begins. Maybe a quick trip to Lkwd in ’12 with a possible mid-season gain to Clwtr??
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I think I read before this season started that Garner was supposed to go to Lakewood to start the year. Whether or not that was true, the injury scuppered that one. I think he will probably be at LKW for most of next year. While he is older, he does not have a lot of experience pitching. He was a QB first and foremost in college, only pitching 20 IP as a reliever in 2009 and 74 IP as a starter in 2010. He is sort of like Jiwan James in that way – old for his league but inexperienced.
While he’s only pitched 20 innings so far, they look pretty good. Hopefully with experience he can refine his control and command.
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Any thoughts on who goes to the AFL?
Austin Brough is hard to figure at the short season level. Not a lot of Ks and he is about neural in the GB department. If he has a good spring he may take the fast train.
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There was talk that Gillies will go to the AFL
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LaMar said the same thing…….if Gillies is healthy.
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Is it just me or is there an awful lot of caught stealing and pickoffs? Not just last nights games but all year. Is it the organization’s philosophy to be ultra aggressive on the bases in the minors? It is just about the opposite for the big league team.
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Pickoffs and caught stealings are more about guys learning about pitchers tells and lack of seeing the pitchers moves. Some guys are extremely fast and have always been able to steal because of that; especially high school guys. Now they are playing against a better caliber of pitcher and sometimes they are college hardened pitchers. They know a thing or two about baiting the runner, when to pitch out (catchers are better too) and slide steps and the like.
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I see Galvis moved to leadoff. If this is a trend, and one day does not a trend make, they are trying to get him more ABs in AAA. He’ll get the callup in September and with Rollins out, maybe sooner. I’ll get a lot of flak for that last comment.
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I could see him getting the call-up when Lehigh’s season is over. I don’t see it happening any sooner. I think they’re fine with Valdez/MiniMart filling in at SS for the short term.
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Saw on philly.com that Charlie has said that Mayberry deserves to be in the lineup now for a while, hinting that even when Raul returns he may go with Mayberry. I’ll believe that when I see it. Most interesting was Amaro’s comment that they may have him try playing 3B. Said he played it before being drafted, that would be interesting.
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This comment belongs in the General Chatter file but, yes, Mayberry at third – intriguing.
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Actually we can talk about it here because half the site believes Mayberry will be playing for the R Phils next season. Also, we talk about Anthony Hewitt on this site and he is clearly not a “phuture phillie”.
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Mayberry was a prospect to start the season. If I’m correct, it’s fine to talk about he, Stutes, Domonic, etc.
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Don’t like taking a super-smooth, natural athlete, ultra-glide, defensively polished CF/LF/RF (completely interchangeable) and putting him at the one position that requires quickness and toughness, just the opposite profile of what Mayberry is. Can’t see for one second. Nw if they want to simpy see if he can take some starts there to increase his versatility and ABs, maybe that’s OK, but generally It think it’s a bad idea, much like putting Altherr at 3B. Giants should have put Willie Mays at 3B. Would make as much sense. Don’t care that it’s a position of need. You don’t put a square peg in a round hole.
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Fast is not the opposite of quick, and smooth is not the opposite of tough. I would say we have no clue from his work in the outfield and at first base whether he could play a passable major league third base.
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That JR to third is so interesting. He seems capable. But if he gets too close to the bag it will burn up he is soooo hot. His production in August matches Pence and even Vic’s in far less AB’s. Lets hope it is for real
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Reigning No.1 – OF – Domonic Brown (LHV-9/13/87) – (.268) 3 for 3 with 2 runs, 2 BB, SB (11), CS (4)
Current Mid-season Top 30
1. RHP – Trevor May (CLW-9/23/89)- (10-7, 3.45) – 6 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 8 K (win)
3. C – Sebastian Valle (CLW-7/24/90) – (.290) – 1 for 4 with a run, BB
5. OF – Zach Collier (LWD-9/18/90) – (.247) – 0 for 2 with an RBI (31), SB (31), CS (13)
7. RHP – Justin De Fratus (LHV-10/21/87) – (2-3, 4.00) –1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K (save)
8. SS – Freddy Galvis (LHV-11/14/89) – (.307) –1 for 5 with a run, RBI (7), K
11. RHP – Phillippe Aumont (LHV-1/7/89) – (0-0, 3.72) – 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, BB, K
12. OF – Jiwan James (CLW-4/11/89) – (.270) – 1 for 5 with a run, RBI (32), K
14. SS – Tyler Greene (GCL-12/1/92) – (.292) 1 for 4 with a CS (1), 2 K’s
16. 3B – Harold Martinez (WIL-5/31/90) – (.251) – 1 for 5 with a run, BB, K
19. OF – Brian Pointer (GCL-1/28/92) – (.283) – 2 for 4 with a 2B (12), K
22. 3B – Carlos Rivero (REA-5/20/88) –(.285) 0 for 4 with a run, BB, K
23. 1B – Matt Rizzotti (REA/12/24/85)– (.288) – 2 for 5 with a HR (21), RBI (74), 2 K’s
25. OF – Kyrell Hudson (WIL-16/6/90) – (.279) – 1 for 7 with 2 K, CS (10)
26. OF – Aaron Altherr (WIL-1/14/91) – (.282) – 1 for 2 with a 2B (11), run, BB
28. 2B – Cesar Hernandez (CLW-5/23/90) – (.257) – 2 for 5 with a run, K
29. 2B– Cody Asche (WIL-6/20/90) – (.195) 0 for 3
30. OF – Derrick Mitchell (REA-1/5/87)- (.267) – 0 for 4 with 2 K’s
Other names of interest
1B – Cody Overbeck (LHV-6/5/86) – (.255) – 1 for 2 with a run, RBI (23), BB
2B – Carlos Valenzuela (GCL-9/18/90) – (.331)- 0 for 4 with 3 K’s
2B – Alejandro Villalobos (GCL/8/20/91) – (.282) 4 for 4
3B – Travis Mattair (CLW-12/21/88) – (.218) 0 for 3 with a run, 2 BB
SS – Edgar Duran (LWD-2/10/91) – (.236) 0 for 2 with a K
OF – Anthony Hewitt (LWD-4/27/89) – (.230) – 0 for 4 with a K
OF – Miguel Alvarez (LWD-8/27/89) –(.270) – 3 for 4 with a run, SB (15), CS (4)
LHP – Joe Savery (LHV-11/4/85) – (4-0, 1.86) 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, K (win)
LHP – Fabian Cota (GCL-4/13/92) – (1-0, 4.05) 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, K
RHP – B.J. Rosenberg (REA-9/17/85) – (4-7, 4.56) – 2.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, BB, 2 K (loss)
RHP – Justin Friend (REA-6/21/86) – (1-3, 2.88) – 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
RHP – Colby Shreve (CLW-1/15/88) – (0-0, 1.29) – 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, BB, 3 K
RHP – Percival Garner (WIL-12/13/88) – (1-1, 1.80) 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (loss)
RHP – Colton Murray (WIL-4/22/90) – (0-2, 2.78) 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K
RHP – Ramon Oviedo (GCL-7/24/90) – (3-2, 4.02) 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
RHP – Jonathan Musser (GCL-12/19/91) – (1-6, 6.59) – 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, K
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I think you can talk about Mayberry here because he is still new to the big leagues. He spent most of last year on the minors and parts of this year. He’s still an emerging player.
Anyway, here’s official confirmation of what I have been saying about Brown for some time now.
Ruben Amaro Jr.: ” We did a bit of a disservice to him, because he hasn’t really gotten quality and steady development time that he’s needed.” This is in reference to the fact that Brown only got 62 at bats from late July of 2010 to the end of the season. Being on the bench last year hurt Brown’s development, no doubt. This explains a lot of the negative developments that have taken place in his career recently. And the fact is there are still a lot of positives.
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There’s plenty of positives. And honestly some of my comments about Mayberry – who, again, I like – are really more about defending Brown. I do think Mayberry is the perfect candidate in the abstract for a platoon role. Except on the Phillies specifically, I think plattooning him with Brown would be a bad move in terms of Brown’s development. And more generally, platooning seems to be on the deceline, for reasons not enitirely clear to me.
I do think Mayberry should be the regular THIS year, over Ibanez. I’d prefer Brown but that doesn’t seem likely, though Brown should and probably will be the regular next year.
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Draw up the career progression/ paths of Mayberry and the Nats Michael Morse….though Mayberry was a college draftee and Morse a HS draftee, both however appear to have been on a comparable MLB course with striking similarities in size and defensive abilities.
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I’m not saying that it is impossible that Mayberry is for real, just unlikely. Morse is a sample size of one. I don’t think you can make predictions on that sort of evidence. It would be great, but unlikely IMO. All these hopes everyone is putting on Mayberry are based upon just over 200 PA.
And as for Morse, I think it’s very likely that he’ll regresss somewhat as well. In fact, in a lot of ways he is a bigger regression risk than Mayberry. A better comp would be someone with a similar profile who sent on to have several seasons as a star or even solid regular. And I’m sure you could find such a comp. As well as plenty of comps where a guy comes out of nowhere in a partial season and then regresses/
I’m sold on him as a 4th OF, though, and one who can step in and do a solid job when the inevitable injuries occur.
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And to be fair to Mayberry, while I still think that reliance on a sample size of 200 PA is unwise, the reason that I do think that some of the improvement is likely for real is that it appears to be supported by peripherals – K/BB/HR data – not BABIP driven. That data normalizes more quickly than (for example) BA. But EVEN SO his career performance (major league and minor league) is still a better predictor of long term performance than his major league data this season.
All this is especially true of a guy who is getting his first real exposure to the league. Adjustments work both ways. In this case, I think we can expect that further exposure to the league may well result in adjustments by pitchers that reduce Mayberry’s effectiveness.
Here’s an interesting take on the Morse comparison, though. On a per PA basis, Mayberry is arguably having a better year than Morse. Slightly worse hitting versus signficantly better defense.
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Appreciated.
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Mayberry reminds me of Darnell McDonald – high draft pick, athletic, plays the OF, draws some walks but not a ton, has some pop but not a ton, generally had an OPS of 750-800 in AAA. McDonald has an OPS of 700 over 580 ABs in the majors. That sounds right to me for Mayberry; perhaps higher if Mayberry gets proportionally more ABs versus lefties.
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“And more generally, platooning seems to be on the decline, for reasons not entirely clear to me.”
Because managers “must” have at least 12 pitchers on their squad. Some prefer 13. Just a matter of running out of bodies in offensive positions. Earl Weaver used to use platoons to great advantage, but with a 11-man staff as I remember.
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Yeah, I think that explains why there is less platooning at SS/3B/2B/C and arguably 1B. But even with 12 man staffs – and hence 5 man benches – you’re going to have a couple of OF on the bench. Now granted there is a somewhat higher premium even there on having a guy who has some positional flexibility, and players with positional flexibility are somewhat less likely have the hitting skills to platoon. But even so, platooning at one OF spot should be doable. Mayberry specifically seems to have the skills to be a 4th/5th OF, including some positional flexibility, yet has the hitting skills to be a strong platoon player. Maybe not for the Phillies, but for someone.
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Would anybody like Golson back? Not me.
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Looks like they gave Maikel a day off he has really been struggling. HMART continues to collect hits and walks. Possible he and Maikel trade places before seasons end.
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Jslasher88, who knows what he’s talking about, said Maikel is going back to Williamsport in a previous thread.
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How can you compare morse to mayberry// morse i believe faces both type pitchers, mayberry mostly lefthanders until recently imo. morse looks like a monster so far, mayberry is suprising me cant believe its the same player.
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I thought this was a pretty good article comparing draft spending. Basically shows that the Phils stuck with slot obligations. In some ways I wish the Phils were a little more like the Rockies – total spend on the lower side but a number of 500k signings. I think the Phils tend to do their above slot signings in the 200k range, not the 500k range, so maybe that distorts it a tad.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/visualizing-2011-draft-spending/
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You could argue the reverse (w/r/t the Rockies).
Let’s make 3 assumptions which are I think clearly correct:
(1) All, or virtually all, prospects come with a high beta.
(2) There is a line below which a prospect has almost no chance of making it – basically, players that will never be more than org filler). (Middle relievers being a little bit of a wild card here, as they sometimes come virtually out of nowhere.)
It seems to me that, if that is true, the “ideal” draft strategy is to buy as many “tickets” (real prospects) as possible for the amount of money you have to spend. That means staying away (for the most part) from the really high bonuses, but at the same time giving out a lot of mid-range bonuses to real prospects to maximize your “tickets” to the lottery, so to speak.
Now, the tricky part is deciding where the line gets drawn between the real prospects and filler. It isn’t a bright line for a number of reasons, one of which is that some real prospects (again often middle relievers) who have little bargaining power (i.e., college seniors) get low bonuses. But I think we can agree that the line is well below $500,000.00 – i.e., there are plenty of “real” prospects who sign for less than that.
Going back to the Phillies vs Rockies draft strategies, given only total spending and number of $500,000 plus bonuses, it is almost certain that the Phillies’ signed more “real” prospects. Maybe a lot more.
I’d rather see then spread their money out on a lot of mid range bonuses – and that seems to be what they do.
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Tough night for the Cutters in Batavia on Tuesday. Despite playing a double-header the night before, the Muckdogs had no trouble taking care of the Cutters in two more.
Game One: Garner with another solid start…the first batter he faced hit one of the hardest comebackers I’ve ever seen – a bullet straight back to Perci which luckily went pretty much straight into his glove…otherwise it could have been a serious injury. But Garner didn’t really get rattled, and went on to have a pretty good start. His fastball definitely has some nice life…the breaking ball wasn’t as sharp as his previous start at home, and he struggled with command, but overall it wasn’t a bad start.
The Cutters caught a bad break in the fourth, when the Muckdogs hitter lined a single into center, scoring one runner and moving another to third. Hudson sent the throw to third, but it got past Martinez and allowed the extra run to score, and that would be all Batavia needed.
Game Two: Fick with the fill-in start…a little shaky with three hits and a misplayed ball by Altherr in left to start the game. Brough continued to do what he does, just get people out without being overly dominant. He was helped out by a good throw by Hudson in this game, which nailed a runner at home to keep the game 1-0 early on. I believe Brough has now thrown 15.1 straight shutout innings.
Lavin had all three of the Cutters hits through the majority of the game…he is doing a really great job for being a ho-hum 20th-round senior pick. Gomez pitched fine in his first inning of relief, but yielded the winning run in the bottom of the seventh. With runners on first and third, the Batavia hitter ripped a line drive down the third base line, which I thought was the game-winner, but Harold Martinez speared it on an all-out diving stab. Unfortunately, the next batter blooped a single in front of Lavin to win it.
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Good to hear Hudson did something good last night, as the box scores suggested he had a tough evening, with an error in a one-run loss in the first game that led to one of Garner’s two runs being unearned, and an 0-4 performance in the one-run loss in the 2nd game which included getting on base twice, but then having a CS and a PO. Will be good to see him bounce back from all that.
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Saw Hudson play a week or so ago when the Crosscutters were in Aberdeen. He didn’t have a great night or anything, but I was impressed with how he looked at the plate. Last year when I saw him he looked completely lost. Just flailing at balls. This year he had a very nice swing and looked like he had a plan. The difference in his approach and confidence were like night and day.
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is Garner throwing a 3rd pitch?
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I’ve seen fastball, breaking ball, changeup. Last night he seemed to be going mostly fastball-changeup. One thing I have noticed with Garner is that he often gets ahead in a 1-2 or 0-2 count, and instead of using his bigtime fastball he’ll go with a secondary pitch and leave it up, and it will get smacked for a base hit.
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Pointer seems to be swinging the bat really well [again]. Very encouraging.
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Not a surprise, but I saw this on a Jim Callis chat:
Logan (Philadelphia): Phillies had a pretty good haul in the draft. With that said, who has the highest ceiling as a position & pitching prospect?
Jim Callis: Larry Greene, Kenny Giles.
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Doesanyonehaveascoutingreportonvalenzuel?
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EarlyreportfromAugust2007—5’11″170lbs-ThePhilliesrecentlysigned16-year-oldDominicanshortstop, CarlosValenzuelafor$200,000. Heissupposedtobeanabove-averagerunner, anaverage defenderwithgoodrange, butwithagoodbat.AccordingtoSal Agostinelli, PhilliesInternationaScoutingDirectory, Hisswingisgoingtoneedsomework,but hesgot speedandanaveragearmwithgoodhandsandpowerforhissize. Atonepointhecouldbea plusdefender, butrightnowwereallylikethebatwiththeabilitytohit forahigh verageandthe powerpotentialthatsthere
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Ouch! my head hurts from reading that with no spaces
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Freddie Galvis might end up the Paul Owens player of the yr award winner for 2011…he made a grear improvement when at AA and now he is killing it at AAA. He is batting .325 with his 3rd hit tonight.
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